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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast that UFC betting

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Speaker 3: preview for UFC three eleven. I'm Sean Zarilla, joined today

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Speaker 3: by Billy Word to help you break down this fourteen

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Speaker 3: fight card for UFC three eleven, going live on Saturday

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Speaker 3: Prelims at six pm. Main card ten Eastern from the

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Speaker 3: into A Dome in Englewood, California. Most importantly, the Russians

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Speaker 3: on this card is a Makachev mur Maraga Metov not

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Speaker 3: getting the typical body clock that they've gotten in their

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Speaker 3: best performances taking place overseas. Nabi Dabi also not going

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Speaker 3: to get the local judging, and judging will probably lean

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Speaker 3: more towards damage as opposed to grappling on this card.

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Speaker 3: So some things to keep in mind as we talk

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Speaker 3: about these number of fighters from the Middle East who

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Speaker 3: typically get deference in terms of the grappling and also

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Speaker 3: get their typical body clock, and unless travel fighting on

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Speaker 3: those cards, they are coming to the United States for

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Speaker 3: this one and going to have to make some small

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Speaker 3: adjustments physically to get into their fights. Make weight et

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Speaker 3: cetera main event. A couple title fights on this car,

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Speaker 3: but the main event a lightweight title matchup and a

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Speaker 3: rematch between arm And Serukian and Islam Maikatchev. This is

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Speaker 3: a rematch from twenty nineteen. Serukian made his USA debut

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Speaker 3: against Makachev. Was ligned about the same price plus two

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Speaker 3: to seventy five currently plus two to seventy five on

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Speaker 3: the line.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: Islam won that fight thirty to twenty seven on two

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Speaker 3: of the cards, twenty nine to twenty eight on the third.

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Speaker 3: He did get better as the fight went on, seemed

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Speaker 3: like he was taking over in the third round. But

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Speaker 3: Serukian did come to that fight on short notice, and

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Speaker 3: now six years later, it's Serugian who's more in his

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Speaker 3: physical prime. In terms of the age, there's a five

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Speaker 3: year age gap between these two. I did mention Islam's

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Speaker 3: best performances coming over in Abu Dhabi. His last fight

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Speaker 3: against Dustin Poye in New Jersey. I thought he looked

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Speaker 3: not a shell of him former self, but a reduced

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Speaker 3: version of the Islam Makachev we had seen previously. Didn't

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Speaker 3: get Dustin out of there until the fifth round. Strength

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Speaker 3: seemed to be reduced and durance seemed to be reduced.

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Speaker 3: That said, he apparently was also dealing with an injury

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Speaker 3: going into fight, so perhaps that was what caused the

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Speaker 3: reduction in performance, the reduction and explosiveness relative to what

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Speaker 3: we had seen previously, But there was no doubt that

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Speaker 3: was a lesser version of Islam Makachev and we saw

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Speaker 3: in his prior fights against Alexander Volkanovski and Charles Olovera.

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Speaker 3: I do think Arman is the better athlete of the two.

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Speaker 3: I think he's more so in his physical prime. He

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Speaker 3: has a two inch reach advantage. I think he may

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Speaker 3: be the better striker at worst. The striking is a

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Speaker 3: extremely competitive I think both of these guys have improved

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Speaker 3: their striking draftically since the first fight. Islam is the

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Speaker 3: better wrestler and Arman is probably not going to be

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Speaker 3: able to mix in offensive takedowns here to rest or

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Speaker 3: get top time. So five round fight line to go

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Speaker 3: to a decision expected to be close and competitive for

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Speaker 3: at least the first three rounds. We'll see how the

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Speaker 3: cardio dynamic plays out in the later rounds, with Islam

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Speaker 3: being older with Arman finally getting some fire round experience

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Speaker 3: under his belt. I do think this is a potential

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Speaker 3: value trap where Arman basically covers the line right, makes

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Speaker 3: it look closer than the plus two seventy five indicates.

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Speaker 3: But Makachev wins the fight three two. But I do

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Speaker 3: think it's dog or pass on the money line. I'm

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Speaker 3: interested in the fight to end inside the distance, but

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Speaker 3: I actually prefer arm inside of the Finnish props. His

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Speaker 3: knockout prop at plus eight hundred I think is super

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Speaker 3: live if he wins this fight, just because I do

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Speaker 3: think it leads back to Islam being a slightly slowed

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Speaker 3: down and reduced version of what we've seen previously. So

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Speaker 3: taking Arman is the values side of the money line

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Speaker 3: at plus two eighty. This line, though the previously touched

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Speaker 3: plus three hundred, I'm gonna wait to see. Probably if

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Speaker 3: it gets there again, maybe I'll fire half a bet

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Speaker 3: at plus two seventy five and I'll look to add

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Speaker 3: more on fight day at plus three hundred. Billy, did

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Speaker 3: you already jump in on this line? Are you joining

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Speaker 3: me on Suruginy? I believe you are at about plus

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Speaker 3: two eighty. I think you might have gotten him earlier

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Speaker 3: in the week at plus three hundred plus three thirty.

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Speaker 3: So where is your cutoff point. I'm betting Sarugan and

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Speaker 3: you already have a wager.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's tough, like as you alluded to. I put

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Speaker 5: it out in my luck ratings. I got plus three

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Speaker 5: thirty on Sarakian earlier in the week. I only did

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Speaker 5: a quarter unit, and I'll explain why in a second.

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Speaker 5: But if we see plus three hundred, i'd, you know,

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Speaker 5: fist pump in another three quarters of unit.

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Speaker 1: Plus two eighty I'd still take.

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Speaker 5: I think you're really sharp with saying it's a value

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Speaker 5: trap and that you know, a close loss for Saraukian

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Speaker 5: is probably the likeliest outcome here. I think both of

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Speaker 5: the favorites in the title fights here. Their biggest advantage

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Speaker 5: is Cardio. We've only seen Sarakin go five rounds one time.

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Speaker 5: He kind of faded down the stretch with Gamrot. Similar

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Speaker 5: fight stylistically with Makachev, where it's a guy he can't

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Speaker 5: dominate with. The grappling striking is close. I think Makachev

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Speaker 5: probably has the technical edge where Saraukian's a little bit

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Speaker 5: more powerful, more explosive. I think Sarakian his actual like

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Speaker 5: straight up wrestling if we throw these guys in singlets,

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Speaker 5: might be better than Makachev, but in terms of his

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Speaker 5: submission skills and MMA grappling, that's probably the clearer edge

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Speaker 5: for Makachev of the pair, not that I see either

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Speaker 5: of them getting a submission unless someone's real tired or

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Speaker 5: real beat up. I was really hoping we'd get the

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Speaker 5: plus nine and a half lines we'd been seeing the

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Speaker 5: last few weeks on the five round title fight. DraftKings

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Speaker 5: caught on that we were all hammering those and they

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Speaker 5: dropped it back down to plus five and a half

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Speaker 5: for Sarakian.

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Speaker 1: Don't love that. It's really hard to cover that in

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Speaker 1: a five round fight.

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Speaker 5: You know you need to clearly win two rounds, and

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Speaker 5: at that point I'd rather just beut on him to

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Speaker 5: clearly win one more round.

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Speaker 1: At close to plus three hundred.

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Speaker 5: So that's why I held off and made it a

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Speaker 5: smaller bet because I was going to come back in

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Speaker 5: with Arman on that point. Spread not an option I

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Speaker 5: don't hate, especially if you got the better price on

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Speaker 5: Arman earlier in the week, then taking Makachev minus five

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Speaker 5: and a half at minus one forty. Usually with those

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Speaker 5: we want to be on the side of the favorite

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Speaker 5: when we get a much better price, because again, it's

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Speaker 5: not that hard to cover the five and a half

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Speaker 5: across the course of five rounds. Other thought, I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: hate Makachev live. If this gets closer to even, I

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Speaker 5: think most of the success for sar Yukin is going

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Speaker 5: to be early. He is the better athlete, he is

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Speaker 5: more explosive. That all comes with a cardio cost. Where

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Speaker 5: Makachev looked pretty much like the same guy in the

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Speaker 5: fifth round against Poitier as he did in the first round,

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Speaker 5: And we've seen Sarakin even in three rounds against Charles

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Speaker 5: olivera kind of hanging on for dear life in the

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Speaker 5: last minute of that fight. He's in great shape. But

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Speaker 5: no matter how good of shape you're in, if you're

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Speaker 5: exploding that hard, working that hard for takedowns, he explodes

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Speaker 5: from the outside and scrambles to get takedowns.

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Speaker 1: Makachev likes a lot.

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Speaker 5: Of cheeky little trips and drags that don't take nearly

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Speaker 5: as much energy. So if we get the price on Makachev,

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Speaker 5: I'll probably kind of hedge out with that. Not sure

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Speaker 5: that we necessarily do, but keep that in mind as

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Speaker 5: you're watching this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the point spreads. The five

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Speaker 3: and a half. I mean, there's really no upside to

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Speaker 3: betting the underdog plus five and a half points. You're going,

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Speaker 3: you're hoping to get forty nine forty six is you know,

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Speaker 3: times one, and then forty eight forty seven times two.

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Speaker 4: That doesn't even do it for you.

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Speaker 3: You'd lose by g I guess that's the only way

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Speaker 3: it works, right, forty eight forty seven times two and

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Speaker 3: then forty nine to forty six times one. That's the

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Speaker 3: only way you're covering like the actual five and a half.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise you need forty eight forty sevens across the board.

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Speaker 3: If there's two forty nine forty six is in there,

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Speaker 3: you lose that bet. So, yeah, the nine and a

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Speaker 3: half much easier to cover than the five and a half.

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Speaker 3: And then we're going to turn our attention to another

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Speaker 3: fight with that five and a half line. Rob Dabash

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Speaker 3: Philly plus two forty current bantamweight champion against umer Rmagametov

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Speaker 3: minus two seventy. This fight also juiced heavily to go

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Speaker 3: to a decision at minus two twenty five. That's about

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Speaker 3: seventy percent implied. Yet Morob coming in as a big

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Speaker 3: underdog when he's been one of the best minute winners

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Speaker 3: in the history of the sport. Now, Umar is not

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Speaker 3: necessarily a good matchup for him, because, unlike a lot

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Speaker 3: of the guys Morob has fought, Umar can wrestle, and

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Speaker 3: Umar is potentially the better striker here as well, I

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Speaker 3: would say, the better technical striker. I'd give Morob the

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Speaker 3: volume edge, the output edge, and it is really hard

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Speaker 3: to make Marob a big underdog against anybody just because

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Speaker 3: of the output and the pace that he keeps. That's said,

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Speaker 3: I would think we both agree that Umar probably has

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Speaker 3: more finishing upside in this fight. We've seen Morob hurt

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Speaker 3: in a number of spots, nearly get put away in

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Speaker 3: a number of fights, didn't get controversially choked out to

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Speaker 3: end one of his bouts, but nearly finished by Marlon Marias.

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Speaker 3: He's been hurt in other of his fights as well,

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Speaker 3: and I would be surprised, frankly if Umar doesn't hurt

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Speaker 3: him at some point in the first couple of rounds here.

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Speaker 3: Just with Marob's aggressive style, the way he leaves his

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Speaker 3: shin up in the air, I think it's very likely

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Speaker 3: he gets clipped dropped at some point in the first

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Speaker 3: couple of rounds, and then maybe you get an even

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Speaker 3: better price live than you did pre fight. Now, I'm

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Speaker 3: not going to be counting entirely on that. I will

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Speaker 3: allocate something to Morob pre fight in the event that

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Speaker 3: this does just play out as a close, competitive kickboxing

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Speaker 3: match over the course of twenty five minutes, because I

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Speaker 3: think that wrestling for both fighters could end up neutralizing

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Speaker 3: one another and the lead of this playing into more

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Speaker 3: of a kickboxing match. Going back to the main event two,

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Speaker 3: I think there's a chance it was very wrestling and

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Speaker 3: scrambling in their first fight. I think there's a chance

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Speaker 3: it just plays out as more of a distance kickboxing

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Speaker 3: match this time around. So two matchups between a pair

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Speaker 3: of wrestlers main event co main event, I think we

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Speaker 3: end up seeing potentially two more striking oriented fights that

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Speaker 3: are aligned to go to a decision, and in both cases,

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Speaker 3: if they are going to go all twenty five minutes,

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Speaker 3: it does lend itself to betting the underdogs as the

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Speaker 3: value sides. Now, Billy, as I said, Umar, more finishing upside,

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Speaker 3: that's the way you're going pre fight, Umar inside the distance,

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Speaker 3: hoping he gets it done early, and then, as I said,

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Speaker 3: you're also banking on the fact that if he doesn't

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Speaker 3: finish the fight in the first couple round, you likely

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Speaker 3: get a better price on Morob Live potentially after run

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Speaker 3: one a round two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I actually really wanted to be on Morob pre fight here,

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Speaker 5: like I was trying to find a way to justify it.

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Speaker 5: But he doesn't really have a clear skill advantage anywhere, right,

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Speaker 5: Like Umar has never been taken down in the UFC.

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Speaker 5: He's Ahabib protege. If your plan is to beat those

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Speaker 5: guys on grappling, it's usually not a very good plan,

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Speaker 5: and that's the case here for Marob. But the one

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Speaker 5: advantage he does have is cardio, cardio and pace. Typically

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Speaker 5: we've only seen new Margo five rounds once. You know, uh,

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Speaker 5: who was it? Yeah, which Corey, Sorry, you know, not

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Speaker 5: a bad opponent, but like not a guy who's really

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Speaker 5: going to push him in the wrestling and stuff like that.

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Speaker 5: I would list Umar's cardio right now as question mark,

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Speaker 5: you know, like it's probably not a weakness of any sense,

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Speaker 5: but I don't think he's going to be Morob. The

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Speaker 5: other problem I have is just like kind of the

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Speaker 5: vibes are off from Morob. He didn't really want to

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Speaker 5: take this fight now, he wanted more time off. We

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Speaker 5: saw that with al Jamaine Sterling losing to a guy

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Speaker 5: badly when he kind of got rushed back into it.

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Speaker 5: I think we talked about it last time we were

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Speaker 5: on here. But like the UFC just kind of hates

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Speaker 5: these Sarah Loongo type guys for whatever reason. They just

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Speaker 5: don't probably because they didn't want to fight each other,

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Speaker 5: and that started the whole thing. So I'm not feeling

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Speaker 5: too good about Morab's chances overall, unless Umar works really

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Speaker 5: hard and the striking gets tired after two or three

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Speaker 5: rounds and then Morob starts taking him down. So I

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Speaker 5: like or Umar at plus three hundred inside the distance.

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Speaker 5: I also kind of like his point spread of minus

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Speaker 5: five and a half. It's minus one fifteen hoping for

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Speaker 5: a slightly better price, but there's a lot of scenarios

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Speaker 5: where he wins all three of the first rounds and

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Speaker 5: lands one big shot in the fourth or fifth or

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Speaker 5: whatever and covers without a finish.

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Speaker 1: It's just too big of a price gap from his

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Speaker 1: finish line for me.

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Speaker 5: So I've about half a unit on the plus three hundred,

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Speaker 5: and then, like you said, if we get Morob at

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Speaker 5: plus five hundred plus six hundred, that's when it's Morob's time, right,

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Speaker 5: Like he's going to drop the early round more often

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Speaker 5: than not against the guy who can defend takedowns come

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Speaker 5: back against him. But yeah, I'm just kind of worried

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Speaker 5: about Morab. Overalls thirty four didn't want to fight now,

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Speaker 5: has taken some damage, feels very Aljamin and Sterling asked

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Speaker 5: with the way this is being set.

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Speaker 3: Up, coming up with a cut on his leg as well,

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Speaker 3: he had stitches a couple of weeks ago. Leg still

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Speaker 3: looks pretty damage. Some people said it's staph infection. It's

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Speaker 3: clearly like an injury that he had snitched up that

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Speaker 3: is still bruised up and red and puffy. Doesn't look

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Speaker 3: great though, And I don't know, if you know, a

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Speaker 3: couple of kicks from him, a couple of kicks from

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Speaker 3: Umar scraping it against the cage, scraping it against the canvas,

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Speaker 3: I don't know if that's going to open that thing up.

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Speaker 3: And blood optics certainly favor the fighter who's not bleeding,

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Speaker 3: regardless of how that blood happened. If it's a close

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Speaker 3: round otherwise and one guy's bleeding, the guy who's not

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Speaker 3: bleeding is going to get the round scored in his favor,

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Speaker 3: So just another you know, point potentially in Umar's corner.

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Speaker 3: I would not lay the juice on Umer's money line,

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Speaker 3: to be clear, though, I think Billy played it correctly.

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Speaker 3: Either Umer or inside the distance at plus three hundred

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Speaker 3: or his points were at the minus five and a

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Speaker 3: half at minus one ten. That seems like a better

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Speaker 3: way to play into the upside of him potentially dominating

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Speaker 3: the minutes in this fight, winning clear minutes in this fight,

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Speaker 3: getting back control, holding it for extended stretches against the

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Speaker 3: guy who's teammate is one of the best backtakers in

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Speaker 3: the sport. So I'm not sure how long Morob is

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Speaker 3: going to spend getting back backed here, and if he

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Speaker 3: doesn't spend too much time in back control, I do think,

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Speaker 3: as I said, we see more of a competitive striking

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Speaker 3: fight for twenty five minutes, where Marob may have the

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Speaker 3: volume edge over the final two rounds. Marob pre fights

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Speaker 3: small plus two to forty for him live. This was

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Speaker 3: another line too, that was closer to plus three hundred

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Speaker 3: and came tumbling down, so make it back up there

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Speaker 3: on fight day. Don't want to allocate too much at

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Speaker 3: the current moment to Morob's reduced money line when we

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Speaker 3: may get a better number on Saturday. Let's turn our

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Speaker 3: attention to our favorite underdogs. Number of Underdogs. Cash last

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Speaker 3: week shattered a few of them out on this podcast.

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Speaker 3: Number of Underdogs I like this week as well. Billy,

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Speaker 3: we're in agreement on two. I'll have two more that

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Speaker 3: I'll shout out beyond that. The two were in agreement

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Speaker 3: upon first fight to the night Clayton Carpenter plus two

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Speaker 3: sixty five against tigear Owin Beckov Lullunen. Bekov is a

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Speaker 3: thirty three year old flyweight on the wrong side of

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Speaker 3: the age.

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Speaker 4: Curb for the division.

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Speaker 3: He's had a number of split and close decision wins

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Speaker 3: throughout his career. He's also pulled out a ton in

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Speaker 3: the UFCS, pulled out at eight fights. He's more than

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Speaker 3: he's actually fought. It's the guy who was trouble making

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Speaker 3: the weight. He's missed weight before. He doesn't have good

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Speaker 3: cardio in the third round. He is the bigger fighter.

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Speaker 3: Here is a FORMNCH Region manager for Carpenter, but he's

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Speaker 3: five years older, and I think Tigear has gotten to

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Speaker 3: the point where he is on the downflow of his

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Speaker 3: career at flywaight. Carpenter very dangerous spider, undefeated in his career,

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Speaker 3: taking him at plus two sixty five.

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Speaker 4: Billy, you're joining me on that one, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent.

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Speaker 5: The big thing is that Clayton Carpenter is also a

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Speaker 5: very good grappler, because you don't want to back pure

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Speaker 5: strikers against these team Habib guys like we kind of

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Speaker 5: have seen how that one plays out over and over again.

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Speaker 5: Carpenter very high level uh jiu jitsu guy, good wrestling

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Speaker 5: both of his UFC winsor submissions. He got three takedowns

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Speaker 5: in his Contender Series fight without a submission. So that

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Speaker 5: kind of base, plus the youth and athleticism, I think

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Speaker 5: is enough.

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Speaker 1: Given the price we're getting. This one's kind of been

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Speaker 1: all over the place.

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Speaker 5: The line, I think it's been both higher and lower

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Speaker 5: different points, but really anything past plus two hundred or

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Speaker 5: so I'd still be comfortable with, although obviously go out

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Speaker 5: and get the best lines if you can.

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Speaker 4: Carpenter trains at the MMA Lab. Number of good fighters there.

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Speaker 3: He's not the same size as Sean O'Malley and the

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Speaker 3: other bandon weights in that room.

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Speaker 4: He's a bit smaller.

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Speaker 3: I wonder if he does train with those guys though,

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Speaker 3: which we stand to level him up if he's a

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Speaker 3: flyway training with a bunch of UFC level bandon weights.

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Speaker 3: But good Jim trust that they'll have him ready for

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Speaker 3: this fight. Another underdog ward agreement on Benil Daryush at

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Speaker 3: plus one forty against Tanato Moykano Money Moikano. Dariush was

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Speaker 3: closer to plus two hundred earlier in the week. This

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Speaker 3: one has really come down as well. These guys are

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Speaker 3: surprisingly the same age. I think they're both thirty five

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Speaker 3: years old. Dar Riush is just much older in terms

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Speaker 3: of fight years, in terms of recent damage knockout losses

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Speaker 3: in his last two fights against Charles Olvera and Armin Serukin.

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Speaker 3: But skill for skill, I think darri USh is the

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Speaker 3: better wrestler in this fight. I think his grappling is

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Speaker 3: amongst his best skills and can match up with Mike Kano.

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Speaker 3: I think Mikana the better submission grappler overall, but I

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Speaker 3: think Dariush is good enough to get on top and

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Speaker 3: stay safe on top, and then the striking. I think

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Speaker 3: Mikano has gotten better in the past couple of years.

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Speaker 3: I think his boxing has gotten old or sharper. But

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Speaker 3: both of these guys are chinny. I don't think either

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Speaker 3: of them have particularly good cardio. I think this is

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Speaker 3: basically a fifty to fifty fight, aside from the fact

360
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Speaker 3: that Betty has just been knocked out brutally, but against high,

361
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Speaker 3: high level opponents you will get may Kano's recent fights

362
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Speaker 3: nearly knocked out by Jalen Turner. If Turner hadn't walked

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Speaker 3: tried to walk away and walk that off, he might

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Speaker 3: have been give him credit for the knockout, losing on

365
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Speaker 3: the scorecards and other fights. Coming back as a live underdog.

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Speaker 3: He did dominate Ben was Sintini in the first round,

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Speaker 3: but then the way that fight was seeming to go,

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Speaker 3: aside from BSD having like the damage on his face,

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Speaker 3: he was still very much competitive within the movements of

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Speaker 3: that fight, within the scrambles of that fight, So it's

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Speaker 3: not like Moi Kano aside from the damage was you know,

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Speaker 3: one way traffic and pulling away completely if you take

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Speaker 3: the cutaway from or from Ben was Saint Denis at

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Speaker 3: that point. I think he may win the fourth and

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Speaker 3: fifth rounds. So taking Baniel Dariush, Pussol and forty by

376
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Speaker 3: decision as well interests me at plus four hundred. Billy,

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Speaker 3: any props for you on this fight, and I know

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Speaker 3: you like Baniel as well.

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think so.

380
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Speaker 5: I'm I think I'm actually slightly more confident in Darius

381
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Speaker 5: than you are. He doesn't really have more fight miles

382
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Speaker 5: on him. He's just had gray hair since he was

383
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Speaker 5: like nineteen, so he looks like he's seventy years old. Like,

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Speaker 5: go look up a picture of Banil Dariush if you

385
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Speaker 5: don't wreck it on him. He's looked like that since

386
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Speaker 5: he was like seriously his early twenties. Had we not

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Speaker 5: seen him badly knocked out in his last two fights,

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Speaker 5: I think he'd be a rightful like minus one fifty,

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Speaker 5: if not more.

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Speaker 1: Favorite.

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Speaker 5: Moikano wins with his grappling. I think he intentionally let

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Speaker 5: off the gas against BSD, knowing that the eye was

393
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Speaker 5: just going to be enough of an issue that it

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Speaker 5: was going to get stopped either way, and he didn't

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Speaker 5: want to take any chances. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 5: true or not. It's hard to say for sure, but yeah,

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Speaker 5: dari Usche, for those who don't know, is like a

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Speaker 5: grappling prodigy. He showed up at a gym in Chicago

399
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Speaker 5: at eighteen, no wrestling, no childhood experience, and that was

400
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 5: like qualifying for ADCC within three ish years. Just a

401
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Speaker 5: really really good grappler at worst can cancel out the

402
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Speaker 5: grappling of Mokano. But if we put these guys in

403
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Speaker 5: a jiu jitsu match, I bet on dari USh every time.

404
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Speaker 5: So and then we get to the striking. As you

405
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Speaker 5: pointed out, both guys kind of chinny. Morkano has one

406
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Speaker 5: knockdown in his UFC career and it was at featherweight,

407
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Speaker 5: So not a guy I really expect to challenge Darius's chin.

408
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Speaker 5: Plus Darius had more than a year off since those fights.

409
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Speaker 5: You like to think hopefully that helps the chin a

410
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Speaker 5: little bit. I don't know how much of a difference

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Speaker 5: it'll make, but it can't hurt. So Yeah, a couple

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Speaker 5: of chinny guys, one guy I think is the better grappler.

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Speaker 5: That guy is also bigger and stronger and has just

414
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Speaker 5: as much power on the feet, if not the technical striking,

415
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Speaker 5: So I would play Darry Yushit anything plus money. I'm

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Speaker 5: not trying to get cute here. You could take a finish.

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Speaker 5: I get the logic, but I'd rather just better't money

418
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Speaker 5: line and get it let it ride.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Darius Shetnley the biggest money line edge

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Speaker 3: that I projected on this card. I make him a

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Speaker 3: small favorite, and again he was plus one ninety earlier

422
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Speaker 3: in the week. This line it's just really come crashing down.

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Speaker 3: I think a little bit not sad, but you know,

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Speaker 3: just disappointed. I didn't get the peak number on this fight.

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Speaker 3: And that's like partially my hesitancy jumping in folly at

426
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Speaker 3: plus one forty as opposed to the near two to

427
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Speaker 3: one you got earlier in the week. But yeah, glad

428
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Speaker 3: you mentioned, you know, the Darius knockouts hadn't happened, and

429
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Speaker 3: obviously they did happen, and you have the packer that

430
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 3: into the line. But what fight is most stylistically similar

431
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,360
Speaker 3: to this form Mi Kano? I think it's the half

432
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 3: Al Dosnidros fight. And RDA absolutely dominated Wakano on the

433
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 3: mat for the first four rounds. And RDA was a

434
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 3: minus two hundred minus one seventy five favorite going into

435
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 3: that fight. I think that's probably what the line would

436
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 3: be if you hadn't seen those recent knockouts against Darry

437
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 3: Oshin again more of a year off to recover his

438
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 3: brain following those losses.

439
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 4: So go ahead, Billy.

440
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 5: As and for dari USh, the probably the closest comp

441
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 5: stylistic was when he fought Matash Gamrot, who he dropped

442
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 5: and largely.

443
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: Didn't struggle with the grappling at all.

444
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 5: So like, you can play that game from both sides

445
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 5: and they both kind of come out looking pretty favorable.

446
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 3: For dari USh and Gary Gamer a significantly better wrestler

447
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 3: than way Kano, doesn't have as good of jiu jitsu,

448
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 3: but yeah, I think that's where dary USh wins the

449
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 3: fight is with the wrestling. I think that's the biggest

450
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 3: skill advantage that either has over the other in this.

451
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 4: Matchup a couple more underdogs.

452
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give out here Billy Ela Kana plus Q

453
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,360
Speaker 3: eighty against Bogden Guskov. Guskov was a dog in all

454
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 3: three of his UFC fights today plus one fifty four

455
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 3: plus one twenty plus one sixty five. This guy can knock,

456
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,199
Speaker 3: rapple I think I've been on the wrong side in

457
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 3: all three of his fights so far. Hoefully not on

458
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 3: the rockside here for the fourth time. But he was

459
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 3: knocked down and choke out on his debut. He was

460
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 3: losing on the scorecards with Zach Paoga before knocking him out,

461
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 3: and Ryan Span gassed after winning the first round, which

462
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 3: is what Ryan Span typically does. Now Elikana is on

463
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 3: short notice. But this guy's pretty well rounded, and I

464
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 3: think he's clearly the better grappler in the fight. I

465
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: think he can compete in the striking, but you know,

466
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 3: full grappling upside plus two eighty. I don't think Guskov

467
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 3: is anything more than you know, just live to a

468
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,479
Speaker 3: knockout in every single one of his fights. But that

469
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 3: makes him like, at best, probably sixty percent in any

470
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 3: matchup over anybody who can competiently strike, and considering Elkana

471
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 3: has the grappling upside, I think plus two eighty is

472
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 3: a very wide number. And then lastly, Diego Fajara at

473
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 3: plus two ten also by knockout a plus seven hundred

474
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 3: or inside the distance of plus four to fifty against

475
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 3: Grant Dawson. I do think if Fajara wins. It is

476
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 3: likely inside the distance. Dawson is a very good grappler,

477
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 3: but he's more of a one dimensional backtake specialist. He's

478
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 3: the much younger fighter here, nine years younger. I think

479
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 3: if this fight extends to a second or third round,

480
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 3: Dawson should have a severe cardio advantage, and for that reason,

481
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 3: I think Dawson plus seven to fifty round two, ten

482
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 3: to one, round three both absolutely worthy pokes. You can

483
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 3: also consider him live after round one, but Fajara pre

484
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 3: fight inside the distance plus four or fifty maybe a

485
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 3: tenth to be unipoke, and then you can also try

486
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 3: to hit Dawson round two in round three. Maybe all

487
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 3: this might be a rare fight. We're all trying to

488
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: end up on both sides of it. But if Fajara

489
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 3: cannot get grappled here, if you can defensively grapple resist,

490
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 3: he should be the much better and more dangerous striker,

491
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 3: and I think he is a chance to put Dawson

492
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 3: away early. If the fight extends, Dawson starts getting the takedowns,

493
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 3: I think Vahara tires out, potentially loses by ground and

494
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 3: pound in round three. Billy, any thoughts on either of

495
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 3: those fights Elekna versus Guskov, Dawson versus Fajara before we

496
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 3: move on to our top props.

497
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't quite get there on Alkana.

498
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 5: I'm definitely not betting Guskov, but I think just the

499
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 5: physical tools are going to be tough. I'm short notice

500
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 5: because Alakana did a lot of his career at middleweight,

501
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 5: so can he just get overpowered by a bigger guy

502
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 5: who had a full camp. I wish were could have

503
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 5: seen Bogdan versus Johnny Walker because that would have been

504
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 5: a hilarious fight one way or the other, like something

505
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 5: stupid was gonna happen. I don't know for who or how,

506
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 5: But I've also mostly been on the CDF side. I

507
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 5: haven't bet it yet myself. Do you know what Saturday is,

508
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 5: Sean besides UFC three eleven and do not? It is

509
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 5: Carlos Diego Fijeda's fortieth birthday. You cannot lose on your birthday. Obviously,

510
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 5: last time he fought on his birthday, he got a

511
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 5: Performance of the Night submission win over Anthony Pettis. Obviously

512
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 5: none of that matters actually, but I just thought that

513
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 5: was a fun fact that he's actually turning forty, like

514
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 5: he's celebrating his fortieth birthday.

515
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: By getting in a cage fight.

516
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 5: So shout out to CDF, I actually really like your

517
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 5: late sprinkles or knockout sprinkles. He probably does lose a

518
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 5: decision in the vast majority of the time with Dawson's grappling,

519
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 5: but he looked good against another kind of up and

520
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 5: coming grappler in matash Rebecy last time. One of those

521
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 5: guys who just doesn't seem to be aging somehow. But

522
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 5: you know, if you magically age at age forty, that's

523
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 5: a problem. So a little bit worried there. But yeah,

524
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 5: I'll have some kind of CDF exposure. I'm not quite

525
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 5: sure exactly how I want to approach it.

526
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 4: Yes, somehow not aging.

527
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: Mystery that these guys well seem to be fighting well

528
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 3: into their late thirties and early forties.

529
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 4: You know, worth mentioning too.

530
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 3: We talked about Makatcha tighirrilan Bekov earlier.

531
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 4: These guys are thirty three.

532
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 3: But you know, these these fighters, these Dagusandi fighters who

533
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 3: have been training since they were children and like take

534
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 3: absolutely no time off other than their time between fights.

535
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: These guys do seem to age a little bit quicker,

536
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 3: you know, than other fighters. I feel like they've been

537
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 3: putting a toll on their body since they were literally

538
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 3: children and taking almost no time off. And I do

539
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,239
Speaker 3: feel like they're kind of older than their thirty three

540
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 3: year old age would indicate. And that just goes back

541
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 3: to the athleticism advantage. I feel that a guy like

542
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 3: Clayton Carpenter or Armin Serukiin could potentially have over their

543
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 3: older opponents.

544
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 4: You know, it says thirty three on paper.

545
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 3: We usually draw the line at thirty five in title

546
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 3: fights because no fighter below one hundred and seventy pounds

547
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: has ever won a title fight at age thirty five

548
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 3: or older. Thirty three years old, thirty four years old.

549
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 3: For Marob, you know, I think you can kind of

550
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 3: draw the line maybe a little bit shorter. Thirty three

551
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: thirty four. Yes, you're not quite thirty five. That's not

552
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: the actual cutoff that we have, But these guys have

553
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 3: taken a lot of damage Morob. You know, the pace

554
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 3: Marob fights at. Can he keep that up into his

555
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,239
Speaker 3: mid thirties, you know, late thirties. Marob maybe on some

556
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 3: supplements as well, so I think Morob can, But uh,

557
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 3: these Dakastani's, I'm not so sure the athleticism is sticking around.

558
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 3: You know, if they got on the same supplements as

559
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 3: Diego Fahera, I don't know if they would ever lose.

560
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 5: There's also a definite, non zero chance that they literally

561
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 5: are older than their are listed on typology or anywhere else,

562
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 5: like we see it in baseball all the time. There's

563
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 5: I forget who it was who came over a Brazilian

564
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 5: fighter that they found out was actually like three years

565
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 5: older than he claimed to be. We know, the UFC

566
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 5: likes young guys and stuff like that, Like it would

567
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 5: not shock me if we found out down the line

568
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 5: that Habib is like four or five years older than

569
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 5: we've thought he.

570
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: Was this entire time.

571
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 5: Like seriously, so I agree with your points, Like I've

572
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 5: had some high level wrestlers I know who are like

573
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 5: I'm not putting my kids in wrestling until middle or

574
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 5: high school just because I don't want their bodies broken

575
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 5: down too early. And then again, maybe, like the record

576
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 5: keeping in Daugistan in the late eighties early nineties was

577
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 5: probably not the most reliable.

578
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was a man, I'm trying to think there

579
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 3: was a fighter, a Russian fighter who claimed he was

580
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 3: like thirty five. He is in the UFC a few

581
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 3: years ago. He would lose in the first round every time.

582
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 3: He had two bad knees. But he's picture. He was

583
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 3: legitimately look like he was fifty.

584
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 4: Five years old.

585
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: I was like the post bottom was like, there's no

586
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: way this guy's thirty five. Absolutely not a chance of

587
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 3: the world. He looked fifty five at best. He was

588
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 3: probably forty or forty five. I mean, the UFC is

589
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: letting guys before who are fraudulent records. You know, they

590
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 3: are able to slip in fake wins and losses from

591
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 3: promotions that should be documented. If guys are lying about

592
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 3: their age and getting into the promotion, I wouldn't be

593
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 3: particularly shocked either. So yeah, it wouldn't be surprising to

594
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 3: find out down the line that we had some some

595
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 3: age verification issues with.

596
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 5: Something, although they got caught, like I think jose Aldo's

597
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 5: age jumped at one point, Like it might have even

598
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 5: been the other way where he's lying to be older

599
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 5: to be allowed to take pro fights.

600
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: But there was something tricky with him. I was trying

601
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: to google earlier talking.

602
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 5: But yeah, there's there's definitely some shenanigans there.

603
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 1: It's not like this is all that well reported.

604
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: Talk about a couple more fights on the main card,

605
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 3: Jamal Hill against Uri Prahashka and then Kevin Holland against

606
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 3: Rainier de Ritter. I like the under in both of

607
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 3: these fights under two and a half rounds as my

608
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 3: quote unquote top props. I also like Hill inside the

609
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 3: distance at plus one sixty five. And then I think

610
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 3: you could choose between Holland inside the distance or Deritter

611
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 3: by submission as your potential bets in the other fight

612
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 3: as well plus money. So start with the Hill fight

613
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 3: because I know you've got thoughts there as well. Billy

614
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 3: Hill was even money earlier in the week. Now he's

615
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 3: blown out to about minus one forty. He is the

616
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 3: better boxer in this matchup. He is the better defensive striker,

617
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 3: and now that's not saying much. Both of these guys

618
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 3: are terrible defensively. He'll defense strikes at forty six percent,

619
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 3: Parasha defense strikes at.

620
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 4: Thirty nine percent, and these guys are both punching bags.

621
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,719
Speaker 3: Now year he's talked about having his hands up more

622
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 3: for this fight, you know, finally being in a better

623
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 3: defensive position. He looked awful against Poloton. I mean, he

624
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 3: just looks scared to be in there, but he was

625
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 3: just absorbing everything and not throwing anything back either. I

626
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: think he landed five strikes in the entire fight. In

627
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: the rematch, Jamal Hill has the leg injury stuff coming

628
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 3: into the fight still. You know, he came back prematurely

629
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 3: from an achilles injury, which coming back early from that

630
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: type of injury is very easy to re injure it.

631
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 3: He also had knee surgery as well. But I think

632
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: he's the better boxer here. I think Uri is the

633
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 3: better kicker. I think Jamal is the better wrestler. I

634
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 3: think Yuri is the better grappler, so they each have advantages.

635
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: I think it makes it close to a fifty to

636
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 3: fifty fight, except I would give a durability edge to Jamal,

637
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 3: like just a pure head punch durability edge, and I

638
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 3: would give him the wrestling upside. I think if somebody's

639
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 3: gonna land a takedown and hold top position for a

640
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: minute or two and win around, I think it's Jamal.

641
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 3: So I understand the move from Jamal Evans to Jamal

642
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 3: minus one forty. I think I made Jamal minus one fifty,

643
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 3: though I wouldn't bet it passed where it is currently.

644
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: Maybe minus one thirty five would be my cutoff. Billy,

645
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: I'm sure you probably agree with that assessment. On the line,

646
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 3: I do that like Jamal inside the distance of plus

647
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 3: one sixty five and then the un two and a

648
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 3: half rounds at minus one seventy considering URI's chin issues

649
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: he gets hurt in every fight, but also the leg

650
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: stuff with Jamal and the fact that he just may

651
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: reinjure that Achilles, you know, it may be not one

652
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 3: hundred percent from where it was previously and he could

653
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: just go down via injury. On top of the fact

654
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 3: that this could just be a high variance fight that

655
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 3: eerie you know, steps into the pocket and forces a

656
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 3: finish either way, because that is something he tends to do.

657
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: He did it with Rackage ended up coming out on

658
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 3: top of that after trailing in the fight. So Billy,

659
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 3: I would assume you would pass it. Hill's money line

660
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 3: at current prices may be interested in is inside the

661
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 3: distant prop and then how do you feel up the

662
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 3: total in this fight?

663
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: Yeah?

664
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 5: I think that about sums it up. Where we missed

665
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 5: the good line. I have this down as one of

666
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 5: my best bets, but I'm kind of taking credit for

667
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 5: the line I got in luck ratings. Usually with those

668
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 5: I bet half a unit earlier in the week and

669
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 5: see if anything changes. This one, I just immediately bet

670
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 5: to win the full unit on Hill. Stylistically, it's kind

671
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 5: of a nightmare for Yeerie because he swings wild. Hill's

672
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 5: defensive numbers I think are a little bit unfair to

673
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 5: what he's trying to do because he'll step in and

674
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 5: deflect and stuff like that in order to land counter strikes,

675
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 5: right like, he puts himself at risk. Where year he

676
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 5: just gets punched for the fun of it, I guess,

677
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 5: I don't know, because he likes getting punched. I don't

678
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 5: know what Yeary's deal is not a lot of interest

679
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 5: in defense, even if he plans I'm putting his hands

680
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 5: up for the first time in his career. This is

681
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 5: a dude well into his thirties. It's been fighting a

682
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 5: long time. You're not going to change those habits that fast.

683
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 5: And then the other thing, I always like betting on

684
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 5: guys their second fight back from an injury, because it

685
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 5: was certainly premature for Hill against Peeda.

686
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: We can say maybe.

687
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 5: He got a little unlucky with the weird stoppage where

688
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 5: you know, Peta waved her being off and then got

689
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 5: outside foot position on the restart, which I'm not saying

690
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 5: is lucky. I think Peyeda was going to finish him

691
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 5: one way or the other. But you know, you can

692
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 5: give Hill a little bit of a pass for that one,

693
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 5: and that's the only time we've ever seen him get hurt,

694
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 5: so the durability is certainly in his favor.

695
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: Yuri not a huge leg kicker. He lands some both

696
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: guys do.

697
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 5: I just think the knee in the ankle and all

698
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 5: that being better for Hill is going to be the

699
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 5: deciding factor because he does move so much better.

700
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: He is so much sharper, more volume.

701
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:08,719
Speaker 5: With that, I mean, the total is weird because like

702
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 5: someone's gonna get finished right, Like Yery can finish on anyone

703
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 5: shortly before he himself gets knocked out, and that's always

704
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 5: in play. I'm not bad at myself. I just don't

705
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 5: love the numbers. But yeah, if I was taking it

706
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 5: now and I didn't do the luck ratings thing, I

707
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 5: would probably go with Hill inside the distance because I

708
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 5: think the overwhelming likelihood is that one of them ends

709
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 5: up knocked out at one point or the other. And

710
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 5: I think Hill has the stylistic advantage, so put those together.

711
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 5: That's kind of how we get there.

712
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: Kevin Holland versus Rightier to Ritter, also on the main card.

713
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 3: I believe this is the first fight on the main card.

714
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 3: Very binary matchup. Holland the much better striker to Riddle,

715
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: the bigger man and also the better wrestler in this fight.

716
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 3: But Howngd can grapple, really get submission skills even when

717
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 3: he's on his back, you know, in a scramble, could

718
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 3: slap on a dars. I think this is I'm not

719
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 3: sure if I said it, but this is extremely binary,

720
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 3: just because I think either de Ritter gets on top,

721
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 3: uses his size physicality to hold Holland down, maybe get

722
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 3: a submission plan, some ground and pound, or he's not

723
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: able to get the takedowns, or Holland scrambles up from

724
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: the takedowns and is able to put a striking on

725
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 3: display and knocked the ritt around to Ridder really didn't

726
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 3: impress me in his UFCA debut against Gerald Miershart. This

727
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 3: is a guy who came over with a lot of hype.

728
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 3: I believe he was a two division champion in one championship,

729
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 3: or he fought for two belts he ended up losing

730
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,479
Speaker 3: for three, he fought, he fought for a third champion,

731
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 3: tried to go up to heavyweight but got it, thank you,

732
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: And you know it's worth noting he competed at heavyweight

733
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 3: and Holland is a guy who fought at walterwait that

734
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 3: his best work maybe at walterweight, has come back up

735
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: to one eighty five, so there is a size of

736
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 3: discrepancy between these two. I would expect a Ritter to

737
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 3: land a takedown in the first round and we'll see

738
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 3: from there whether Holland is able to get up whether

739
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: he's able to scramble at all underneath the ridder's size.

740
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 3: So I like the under the inside the distance. That said,

741
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 3: I think more of the finishing equity is tied to Holland.

742
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,959
Speaker 3: I think the Ritter would be happy to just not

743
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 3: lay and prey, but like control the clinch, control positioning

744
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: as much as he can in this fight and slow

745
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: it down. So under two and a half rounds of

746
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 3: minus one forty five interest me. But I might actually

747
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 3: prefer Holland inside the distance to finish the Rittter maybe

748
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 3: even Holland rounds two and rounds three in addition to

749
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 3: a live bet after round one could be a good

750
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 3: angle as well. Billy any thoughts on Holland and Ryder

751
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 3: to Ridder.

752
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 5: I'm going to get back to that one on my

753
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 5: best bets. I'll save that one, so transition to my

754
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 5: other props right now. I like Bernardo Sopaj inside the

755
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 5: distance at two to one. I actually wrote this up

756
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 5: when this fight was first book. That was my bet there.

757
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 5: I think it was one of my best bets.

758
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: Whatever.

759
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 5: Soa bad fights like a bat out at hell. It's

760
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 5: been a pro sin who is fifteen great wrestler. It's

761
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 5: taken on Ricky Tercios, who accepts takedowns and tries to

762
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 5: get submissions off his back but often gets beat up

763
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 5: while he's down there, and Sopaj just a much more dynamic,

764
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 5: explosive striker. He got pretty badly knocked out in his debut,

765
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 5: but I think he was winning until late in the fight,

766
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 5: and that was a fight he took on like four

767
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 5: days notice and had to fly across the world. So

768
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 5: you project all of that forward. I really like Sopage

769
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:21,280
Speaker 5: by finish. You could also go Sopaje. His points spread

770
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 5: at minus three and a half gets him to even money.

771
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: I like that too.

772
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 5: I just don't think Ricky Tercios is that great. He's

773
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 5: a good guy to have around to make some of

774
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 5: these more exciting fighters look good. Then the other one

775
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 5: I'm on is Runya Nakamura. Pick up a finish at

776
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 5: plus one eighty. He's Japan's bow nickel. He's only been

777
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 5: doing uf IMMA since about twenty twenty, when Covid canceled

778
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 5: the Olympics. He didn't finish his last two fights in

779
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 5: the UFC, but.

780
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 1: He's got big power.

781
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 5: He starts some people on the road to UFC tournament,

782
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 5: and then obviously I expect the grappling to just level

783
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 5: up considerably as he gets deeper into his career. Way

784
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 5: better athlete than you and Gaffer Ov way better grappler,

785
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 5: probably the worst technical striker, but Gaffer all was taken

786
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 5: down three times by Young Ho Kang. And now he's

787
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 5: fighting like at one point, who was the best wrestler

788
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 5: in this weight class in the world, Like he won

789
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 5: the under twenty three World Championship. So with this wide

790
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 5: of a money line, I think he should finish it

791
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 5: more often than the plus one to eighty odds indicate.

792
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 5: And again I sound like a broken record here, but

793
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 5: his points spread is minus one thirty five. This one

794
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 5: is minus five and a half despite being a three

795
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 5: round fight, which makes it kind of tricky. Probably wouldn't

796
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:33,959
Speaker 5: take that one as much.

797
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 4: Worth noting on the sopy fight. This fight was rescheduled

798
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 4: from November.

799
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 3: Sopie was a minus three seventy five favorite when that

800
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 3: fight was taken off the board. It was Tercios who

801
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 3: pulled out of the matchup after an issue he got

802
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 3: sick weight cutting. I think Sopi is a tremendous fighter.

803
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 3: He is lost to Venisius Olivera. His aged extremely well.

804
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 3: Olivera came out and dominated Ricky Simone in his next

805
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 3: fight after didn't get take and down by Simone, Soapi

806
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 3: was taking him down in the first couple of rounds.

807
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: I think Venisia Solvera is a serious prospect in the

808
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 3: flyway division. I think Sopi right there with him, was

809
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 3: winning that fight until the brutal knockout knockout of the

810
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 3: Year candidate in round three with the flying knee. But yeah,

811
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 3: I'm very high on Sopi and I think minus two

812
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 3: fifty on the money line is a steal for a

813
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 3: guy he's probably going to control and hit much harder

814
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 3: against over the course of fifteen minutes. I think Tercios

815
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 3: is a good fighter. I think he has a high

816
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 3: floor in every fight, dude to his volume, but in

817
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: certain matchups he's at a clear wrestling disadvantage, and I

818
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 3: think this is one of those where Sopi should be

819
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 3: able to land takedowns at will. Knakamura, to his credit

820
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 3: as well, should also be able to land takedowns at

821
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 3: well against Mouon Gafrov. Kind of feeling more of a

822
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 3: lad finish for Knackamora, like cardio oriented wrestling finish from Knackamora.

823
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 3: Maybe rounds two in rounds three. Let's take a look

824
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: at those odds real quick. I think I saw Soapi

825
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 3: was like plus five fifty round one and then ten

826
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: to one round two. Knakamura is five to one in

827
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 3: round one plus six fifty round two, ten to one

828
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,439
Speaker 3: in round three. I could see it maybe a little

829
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 3: round two round three sprinkle on Knockamore there. How do

830
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 3: you feel about like the pace of that finish in

831
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 3: the Knockamorrif I billy.

832
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's sharp if you think he just

833
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 5: wears him down with wrestling and keep putting him on

834
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 5: his back. I don't think if Gaffrov as being like

835
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 5: a Cardio liability necessarily, but he's also not a guy

836
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 5: that he's not morob or whatever where we think he's

837
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 5: gonna push that pace later on. His finishing the UFC

838
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 5: was early. He got submitted in the first round. But

839
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 5: I said Normaga Madoff as a reminder for everyone that

840
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 5: is an unrelated Normalga Madoff who's not nearly the grappler

841
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 5: of tab bin Umara and usmiand and all those guys.

842
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 5: So if side can do it, it wouldn't shock me

843
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 5: if Knakamura gets a quick one. But I do think

844
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,240
Speaker 5: the late rounds are probably a little bit undervalued relatively speaking.

845
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: Yes, so he just has that ninja choke. He slaps

846
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 3: on everybody in the first fifteen seconds in the fight

847
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 3: and seems to get people out of there. Doesn't have

848
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 3: the depth of the grappling game or the wrestling game.

849
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 3: Is the other Nermaga Medov's namesakes, even though he's unrelated.

850
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 3: But he does have one very nasty technique which seems

851
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,839
Speaker 3: to work very quickly against a lot of opponents. We're

852
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 3: already touched on all the main card fights, which I'm

853
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 3: happy to see. But we're gonna pivot to our best

854
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 3: bets here and Billy will be going back to the

855
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 3: main card four a couple of his best bets, which

856
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: he's already mentioned. I do want to give out one

857
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 3: more underdog here, though, Zachary Reese at plus one seventy.

858
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 3: Billy not sure if you're in agreement on this one.

859
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 3: He was a big favorite against Tadriguez Dumas. I believe

860
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 3: he was minus two thirty against Dumas when that fight

861
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 3: was canceled. Now he's getting Ozama Bakoyev on short notice.

862
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 3: This guy was the LFA champion, but he's much smaller.

863
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 3: Zachary Reese five entre each advantaged Beach four inches taller.

864
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 3: He was the one on a full training camp where

865
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 3: Koiv is coming in on short notice, and Bekoyev's lfakreer

866
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: wasn't uber impressive to me. We've seen Dennis Bukka in

867
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 3: the UFC. They had a closing, competitive split decision where

868
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 3: Buka was landing the better strikes. I think Koyev has

869
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 3: wrestling upside here. I think Reese very likely to get

870
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 3: taken down to the first round, but he is a

871
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 3: very nasty submission game from guard. I think he can

872
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 3: win this fight off of his back, and he just

873
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 3: proved in his last fight that he can go off

874
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. Prior to that last fight, I had Reese

875
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: filed under that round one finisher archetype where you fade

876
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 3: them after round one. Billy would agree with that, and

877
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 3: I think I even lied bet against against Reese in

878
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 3: his last fight, and then he proved to me that

879
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 3: he could go fifteen minutes and actually continue wrestling in

880
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 3: round three and displayed a pretty good skill set. So

881
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 3: absent that performance, I'd be very skeptical about betting Reese here.

882
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 3: I think he absolutely can finish this fight at any point,

883
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,720
Speaker 3: and I think the short notice nature for Bakoyev probably

884
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 3: neutralizes what would normally be a cardio advantage, So give

885
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 3: me a recent plus one seventy. I also like the

886
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 3: under probably when this prop's open for this fight hasn't

887
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 3: really come out yet recent side it is since Reese

888
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 3: plus one seventy, and then likely if I can get

889
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 3: it an under two and a half at a reasonable price.

890
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 4: Billy thoughts on Zachary Reese for this weekend.

891
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was surprised these lines came out this way.

892
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 5: Usually you get a short notice fighter, they're almost by

893
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 5: default installed as an underdog. And I was excited to

894
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 5: bet Becaev as an underdog because I do think he's

895
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 5: a high level prospect and we'll get there. But this

896
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 5: happy of a favorite i'm short notice doesn't make a

897
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 5: ton of sense to me. I'm a little bit, I

898
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 5: think lower overall on zach Reese than you, just because

899
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 5: he's kind of his grappling's kind of weird for lack

900
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 5: of a better term, Like he's not the traditional going

901
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 5: to dominate you from the top, stay safe, beat you up,

902
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 5: then find a submission kind of thing that we see

903
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 5: from the Dagistani guys among others. So I'm probably not

904
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 5: betting it myself, but with this price, like the side

905
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 5: is clear, Like if you're going to better side, it

906
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 5: absolutely has to be zach Reese and then my best bet,

907
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 5: I'm a little bit more confident in this one. The

908
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 5: binary fight you referred to earlier Rainier de Ritter fighting

909
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 5: the Dutch Knight fighting Kevin Holland, which I'm ninety nine

910
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 5: cent sure the UFC did on purpose, just because they

911
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,919
Speaker 5: like to do stuff like that with the names. There's

912
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 5: just a couple of things working against Holland here. He

913
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 5: lost his last fight to a grappler in Roman Dalitze,

914
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 5: but it was stopped due to a rib injury, not

915
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 5: a huge injury, but that was just three months ago,

916
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 5: so Holland was almost certainly out of the gym, at

917
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 5: least for a couple of weeks. In there, Holland is

918
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 5: a guy who is publicly campaigned to only be messed

919
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 5: up with strikers. He like, don't give me grapplers, I

920
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 5: hate it. I want to put on fun fights. And

921
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 5: now they just throw another one at him.

922
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 1: And then De Rittter.

923
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 5: Not only can he wrestle, but he's got a judo base,

924
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 5: so if these guys get close, he can find takedowns

925
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 5: without expending a ton of energy. But he can also

926
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 5: shoot from the outside and force some clinches. The one

927
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 5: thing that worries me a little bit about De Ritter

928
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 5: is his chin. Holland, coming up from walter weight, where

929
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 5: I was more scared of his power, mitigates that a

930
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 5: little bit. But the only person to ever finish or beat.

931
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 5: The Ridder is anatolely Malkin who he challenged for the

932
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 5: heavyweight title and then lost the light heavyweight title. Too

933
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 5: big ish dude, but really not a heavyweight, clearing him

934
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 5: out a light heavyweight. I think some of that is

935
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 5: less concerning here. You said you weren't impressed by him

936
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 5: in his debut, which I to a degree agree with.

937
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 5: One thing that was really impressive about his debut is

938
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 5: that he made Gerald mierschardt want to defend, takedown some strike.

939
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 5: Gerald Mierschard, I think has more submissions than anyone in

940
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 5: middleweight history. Not a good striker wanted to strike with

941
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 5: day Ridder deritt or not a good striker either.

942
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 1: He looks awkward, but he's got some pop.

943
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 5: He dropped Mearchard at the end of the first round

944
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 5: would have been a knockout head It came like ten

945
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 5: seconds earlier, so he'll lose the striking. But he's dangerous

946
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 5: enough that he could find a big moment in there.

947
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 5: And I just think it's a huge grappling advantage. Like

948
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 5: kids started judo at age six, competed at a high

949
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 5: level across the world, so you're still getting I think

950
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 5: minus one ten is the best on day radder. It's

951
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 5: been bouncing around a little bit. Anything inside of minus

952
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 5: one twenty or so. I'm taking him straight up because

953
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,280
Speaker 5: it wouldn't shock me to see him just top control

954
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 5: his way to a victory and not find the submission

955
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 5: against Holland. But also we could find a submission if

956
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 5: Holland gets tired or frustrated or starts doing dumb stuff

957
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 5: or talks or you know, Kevin Holland thinks.

958
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 3: I would actually jump on it. Now if you like

959
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 3: the to rider side, it has started to move his way.

960
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 3: He opened plus one twenty five for this fight, best

961
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 3: available price right now minus one fifteen. It's on the

962
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 3: move this morning. DraftKings actually all the way up to

963
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 3: minus one thirty fan duels as well, so Holland getting

964
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 3: out to plus one ten. I may actually be interested

965
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 3: in Holland at plus money. I'll continue to monitor that

966
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 3: line and see where it goes. But yeah, if you

967
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 3: like to Ritter, I would jump on it. And now

968
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 3: at the minus one fifteen's to that point. You got

969
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 3: Jamal Hill in your deluc ratings piece. Earlier this week

970
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 3: at minus one twelve, we discussed at the fact that

971
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 3: it's moved up closer to minus one forty minus one

972
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,320
Speaker 3: forty five. There is a minus one twenty five currently

973
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 3: at DraftKings. I would consider jumping on that. What's your

974
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 3: cutoff price for Jamal Hill?

975
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 5: Before you said that, I was actually going to say

976
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 5: minus one twenty five, So I think at this point

977
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 5: you just take the inside the distance, right like, unless

978
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 5: you're getting it closer to minus one ten or so.

979
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 5: I wouldn't hate it if someone said I still had

980
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 5: to bet a money line and I could get minus

981
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 5: one twenty five on Hill, I probably would. I'm just

982
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 5: not saying enough value that it would keep me from

983
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 5: getting the inside the distance. It not huge, but mostly

984
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 5: significant plus money.

985
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 3: Now I'll do it for a UFC betting preview for

986
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,320
Speaker 3: UFC three eleven. You can find more UFC betting content

987
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 3: from Billy Ward and myself both in the Action Network

988
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 3: Gap and on actionnetwork dot com. Don't forget to download

989
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 3: the free award winning Action Network Gap and sign up

990
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 3: for an Action Pro for immediate access to extra picks

991
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 3: and analysis. Best of luck with all of your best

992
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:37,840
Speaker 3: this weekend. Enjoyed the violence. Thank you for listening to

993
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 3: see back here.

994
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 4: In a couple of weeks.

995
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

996
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

997
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

998
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:58,160
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