WEBVTT - Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.044 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.084 --> 0:00:28.724 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:28.364 --> 0:00:29.164 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:29.564 --> 0:00:32.444 Today we'll be talking about a few different things, starting 0:00:32.524 --> 0:00:36.524 with Justice Sonya Sotomayor and whether or not she should retire. 0:00:36.364 --> 0:00:38.804 And we'll talk about degenerate sports betting in the world 0:00:38.844 --> 0:00:41.484 of professional athletes. A Major League Baseball player were suspended 0:00:41.484 --> 0:00:44.684 for life last week for betting on his own team's games. 0:00:45.164 --> 0:00:48.844 And talking about a different area of degeneracy, we're going 0:00:48.884 --> 0:00:50.964 to be giving you a little taste of the world 0:00:51.124 --> 0:00:56.404 of memestocks with the return of Roaring Kitty aka Keith 0:00:56.444 --> 0:00:59.284 gill get a little bit into what that means for 0:00:59.564 --> 0:01:10.604 the world of trading more broadly, So so Nate. There's 0:01:10.684 --> 0:01:12.484 been a lot of talk, and we've talked about the 0:01:12.484 --> 0:01:14.364 Supreme Court right now and what's going on with it. 0:01:14.684 --> 0:01:18.884 Something that we haven't talked about is the fact that 0:01:19.004 --> 0:01:22.284 one of the only liberal justices, Sonya so to Mayor, 0:01:23.244 --> 0:01:26.724 is reaching a point where she is getting older. She's 0:01:26.764 --> 0:01:29.884 seventy years old. She is not in great health. She 0:01:29.924 --> 0:01:34.244 has diabetes. She often travels with a physician, and we're 0:01:34.724 --> 0:01:37.804 nearing the end of the Biden administration, and as you 0:01:37.844 --> 0:01:40.684 and I have discussed on previous episodes, we don't know 0:01:40.724 --> 0:01:42.964 if Biden is going to get reelected. We don't know 0:01:42.964 --> 0:01:45.244 if the Democrats are going to stay in power. So 0:01:45.484 --> 0:01:48.164 what does this mean for the Supreme Court? What does 0:01:48.204 --> 0:01:51.604 this mean for justice? So to Mayor, should she be 0:01:51.764 --> 0:01:56.404 considering retiring right now? While Biden can still definitely replace her? 0:01:57.484 --> 0:02:00.684 So she is sixty nine, she turns seventy later this month. 0:02:01.044 --> 0:02:04.244 I'm sorry. I'm so sorry, Sonya. I aged you and 0:02:04.324 --> 0:02:05.684 I and I apologize. 0:02:05.844 --> 0:02:08.244 That's what we call a newspeg in the business. It's 0:02:08.284 --> 0:02:10.684 almost her seventieth birth. We're getting ahead of the news 0:02:10.684 --> 0:02:13.164 and therefore that's why we're partly why we're doing this now, 0:02:13.164 --> 0:02:16.164 but also because we as you said, Maria, it maybe 0:02:16.644 --> 0:02:19.124 toward the end of Biden's We are toward the end 0:02:19.124 --> 0:02:20.764 of his first term in office, and maybe the end 0:02:20.804 --> 0:02:23.564 of any terms in office. If the polls are right, 0:02:23.644 --> 0:02:28.924 Donald Trump is ahead right now, although it's close. If 0:02:29.404 --> 0:02:32.964 Biden does prevail, Democrats could also lose the Senate. There 0:02:33.004 --> 0:02:36.724 are Democratic held seats, for example, up in West Virginia 0:02:36.764 --> 0:02:41.004 and Montana. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin has retired, so 0:02:41.084 --> 0:02:45.924 that seat's like gone for sure. Montana, to a lesser extent, 0:02:46.004 --> 0:02:49.244 Ohio are tough hoolder Democrats, So even if Biden returns 0:02:49.244 --> 0:02:53.524 to the presidency, you might have an uncooperative Republican Senate. 0:02:54.644 --> 0:02:59.284 So you asked, should she consider retiring, and the answer 0:02:59.404 --> 0:03:02.604 she should not just consider. She should retire today. Go 0:03:02.644 --> 0:03:05.244 take one of these university president jobs everybody is quitting. 0:03:05.324 --> 0:03:08.284 Go be president of Yale or Harvard, or go, you know, 0:03:08.684 --> 0:03:12.084 go make lots of money selling a book co under 0:03:12.084 --> 0:03:13.964 the World Series of Poker main event. I'm sure she's 0:03:14.004 --> 0:03:16.644 a very candy poker player, but she should absolutely retire 0:03:16.764 --> 0:03:20.084 if she actually cares about any of the values that 0:03:20.084 --> 0:03:23.124 she purports secure about, these kind of liberal, progressive values. 0:03:23.124 --> 0:03:26.004 Because she doesn't retire, then she could very easily be 0:03:26.044 --> 0:03:30.644 replaced by another conservative justice, leading to a seven to 0:03:30.884 --> 0:03:32.844 two conservative majority. 0:03:33.644 --> 0:03:37.084 And that is that's going to be difficult to overcome. 0:03:37.404 --> 0:03:40.084 I mean, if we have a seven to two conservative majority, 0:03:40.364 --> 0:03:42.364 it could be I mean, I don't know how many 0:03:42.484 --> 0:03:45.724 presidentss will need before the Supreme Court is more balanced. 0:03:46.964 --> 0:03:47.924 Could be a time. 0:03:48.924 --> 0:03:53.204 So it's not just that like the Supreme Court would 0:03:53.284 --> 0:03:55.484 increase our conerns would increase their majority. It's also that, 0:03:55.564 --> 0:03:58.844 like believe it or not, the Supreme Court agrees on 0:03:58.924 --> 0:04:02.924 more issues than you might think. But where that middle 0:04:02.924 --> 0:04:05.884 point falls is is important. 0:04:06.124 --> 0:04:06.324 Right. 0:04:06.444 --> 0:04:09.364 The fact that it does fall with the Barrett Or 0:04:09.484 --> 0:04:12.564 or Kevina or on some issues. Justice Gorsich is a 0:04:12.604 --> 0:04:16.924 little bit heterodox on some issues versus like an alito 0:04:17.124 --> 0:04:19.364 or something like that. Like that also has a material 0:04:19.844 --> 0:04:21.884 impact as far as how far they will go on 0:04:22.204 --> 0:04:22.964 certain issues. 0:04:23.244 --> 0:04:25.804 I completely agree with you, Yeah, and I think that, 0:04:25.884 --> 0:04:29.204 and I think that we should really look at the 0:04:29.244 --> 0:04:33.524 past to kind of guide Justice Sotomayor's decision right now, 0:04:33.684 --> 0:04:35.804 because I'm gonna I'm just gonna go ahead and say this, 0:04:36.284 --> 0:04:39.804 and fellow female liberals are going to get really really 0:04:39.804 --> 0:04:42.884 mad at me, But I am so fucking mad at 0:04:43.044 --> 0:04:47.124 RBG that like, for me, her entire legacy is tainted, 0:04:47.404 --> 0:04:51.404 like the sheer hubris of not retiring when she could 0:04:51.444 --> 0:04:53.644 have been replaced and of being like, no, I'm going 0:04:53.724 --> 0:04:57.124 to live forever. I'm fucking RBG like, look at my 0:04:57.244 --> 0:05:01.844 legacy like I'm invincible, and she, like her legacy is 0:05:01.964 --> 0:05:05.804 Roe v. Wade being overturned. That's her legacy, because if 0:05:05.844 --> 0:05:08.084 she had retired early, we would have had an entirely 0:05:08.124 --> 0:05:10.964 different court. And like I used to be like such 0:05:11.004 --> 0:05:13.844 a you know, such an avid RBG fan, and I'm 0:05:13.884 --> 0:05:16.444 not anymore because I think that with that one decision, 0:05:16.524 --> 0:05:19.844 she's single handedly set woman back much further than she 0:05:19.884 --> 0:05:22.244 ever advanced them. I said it. People are going to 0:05:22.524 --> 0:05:24.564 get mad at me, but I think that that is 0:05:24.844 --> 0:05:28.004 the truth, and I am so pissed at her, like 0:05:28.044 --> 0:05:31.004 from beyond the grave, that I just I can rant forever. 0:05:31.804 --> 0:05:33.764 No, I'm glad you said it. I mean, in the 0:05:34.004 --> 0:05:36.604 Silver Bulletin post I wrote about sort of mayor said 0:05:36.604 --> 0:05:40.404 that her retirement is a political IQ test, and that's 0:05:40.484 --> 0:05:42.844 you know, that's a little bit of invective. She's, I'm 0:05:42.844 --> 0:05:45.444 sure a very smart woman. I'm not sure how smart 0:05:45.484 --> 0:05:49.364 some of the kind of liberal political observers are frankly right, 0:05:50.284 --> 0:05:55.124 because the excuses are dumb. Frankly just dumb. They'll say, well, 0:05:55.964 --> 0:05:59.244 you can't force a Latina justice to retire, Well, sure 0:05:59.244 --> 0:06:02.924 you can. There are lots of qualified Latina associate justices 0:06:02.924 --> 0:06:05.404 and things like that could replace her, if you believe 0:06:05.444 --> 0:06:08.124 that's an important thing to do, right or if people say, oh, 0:06:08.164 --> 0:06:11.764 it's kind of like it ablest to worry about her diabetes. Well, 0:06:11.764 --> 0:06:14.004 I'm sorry if you write in the Constitution that you 0:06:14.084 --> 0:06:16.444 have a lifetime appointment to something, which, by the way, 0:06:16.524 --> 0:06:17.804 I think is a bad idea. I think she'd be 0:06:17.844 --> 0:06:20.644 limited toward eighteen years or something like that. But if 0:06:20.684 --> 0:06:25.324 it's a lifetime appointment, absolutely it's the public's responsibility almost 0:06:25.404 --> 0:06:28.244 to consider, like the health of the justices that it 0:06:28.284 --> 0:06:31.844 plays out strategically. But historically justices wait to time their 0:06:31.884 --> 0:06:36.484 retirements for partisan reasons, right, they want to be replaced 0:06:36.524 --> 0:06:39.484 by the same party that appointed them in the first place. 0:06:40.484 --> 0:06:43.404 So that's not new. You know. Justice Kennedy, for example, 0:06:43.444 --> 0:06:46.124 who was more moderate, did so under Trump when he 0:06:46.164 --> 0:06:50.804 had some time to go. So look, maybe son of 0:06:50.844 --> 0:06:53.404 mayor is not a believer in the polls that show 0:06:53.684 --> 0:06:56.884 Biden trailing, and again that is close. The issue is 0:06:57.484 --> 0:06:59.964 just as much, if not more, about the Senate in 0:07:00.004 --> 0:07:03.124 a long term where in the Senate, North Dakota has 0:07:03.164 --> 0:07:05.924 as many senators as California despite having what it is, 0:07:06.004 --> 0:07:08.764 you know, one fortieth of the population or things like that. 0:07:09.084 --> 0:07:12.804 Currently in the Trumpian coalition, the GOP does better among 0:07:13.404 --> 0:07:16.724 rural voters, white rural voters in particular, and they are 0:07:16.724 --> 0:07:20.244 overrepresented by quite a lot in the Senate. So look, 0:07:20.364 --> 0:07:23.604 if the GOP gets attacked together, they would have potentially 0:07:23.644 --> 0:07:26.844 a relatively durable advantage to the Senate. I do think 0:07:26.924 --> 0:07:29.684 I kind of once you go out more than five 0:07:29.764 --> 0:07:32.844 or ten years, it kind of becomes a fuzzy crystal ball. 0:07:32.884 --> 0:07:35.124 But the basic math is that, like, you don't know 0:07:35.164 --> 0:07:38.684 what's going to happen in terms of medium term political future. 0:07:38.884 --> 0:07:41.604 You're about to turn seventy years old, you have diabetes, 0:07:41.724 --> 0:07:44.284 and like and like I don't know, Like, by the way, 0:07:44.644 --> 0:07:47.124 what is the ego involved here? Like it just kind 0:07:47.124 --> 0:07:50.524 of weirdly, it's weirdly stubborn. It makes me think less 0:07:50.564 --> 0:07:52.644 of people who seek out power, I suppose. 0:07:52.964 --> 0:07:55.364 Yeah, absolutely, I totally agree. And by the way, an 0:07:55.444 --> 0:07:57.884 important point that you're making that you didn't make explicit 0:07:58.364 --> 0:08:01.244 is that it matters not just who wins the presidency 0:08:01.284 --> 0:08:03.724 but what the majority is in the Senate. Because let's 0:08:03.724 --> 0:08:09.404 not forget the Garland disaster where Obama tried to appoint 0:08:09.604 --> 0:08:12.684 him and the Senate just literally blocked the hearings and 0:08:13.204 --> 0:08:16.724 Garland didn't even get a chance to be considered, and 0:08:16.764 --> 0:08:17.844 that's something that can happen. 0:08:18.284 --> 0:08:19.844 I mean, it reminds me a little bit of like, 0:08:20.564 --> 0:08:24.804 you know, sometimes the failure to make a change is 0:08:24.804 --> 0:08:26.884 the biggest risk, right, It's like, well, why would I 0:08:26.884 --> 0:08:29.444 disrupt the status quota? Why I have this job? You know, 0:08:30.164 --> 0:08:32.724 seventy years old is not that old for a woman 0:08:32.764 --> 0:08:36.204 who presumably has good health care, even if she has diabetes. 0:08:37.244 --> 0:08:40.244 But like, sometimes the status quo is the riskier is 0:08:40.284 --> 0:08:42.724 the riskier path, right? You know? Right now that she 0:08:42.804 --> 0:08:47.244 can be replaced by another liberal justice. Democrats in the Senate, 0:08:47.244 --> 0:08:49.164 even the Joe Manchins of the world, have been very 0:08:49.204 --> 0:08:52.484 loyal to Biden on judicial appointments. You don't know anything 0:08:52.484 --> 0:08:55.844 beyond what happens in November. And by the way, in 0:08:55.924 --> 0:08:59.124 terms of like pure political tactics, to have a big 0:08:59.204 --> 0:09:01.764 fight over the Supreme Court, this is an issue where 0:09:01.764 --> 0:09:05.244 Democrats now are more charged up and talk about abortion 0:09:05.364 --> 0:09:07.724 rights and things like that. I'm sure whoever is now 0:09:07.724 --> 0:09:09.564 many it would be subject to lots of abuse from 0:09:09.564 --> 0:09:12.164 Republican commentators. This would also be I think a good 0:09:12.164 --> 0:09:16.324 way to rile up democrats generate more enthusiasm, which is 0:09:16.364 --> 0:09:20.364 a bit flagging for Biden right now, But I don't know. 0:09:20.564 --> 0:09:22.364 People are like, well, you shouldn't think of politics in 0:09:22.444 --> 0:09:25.924 terms of expected values. Yes you should, Yes you should. 0:09:27.044 --> 0:09:28.924 By the way, everyone who says it's not a game, 0:09:29.324 --> 0:09:31.084 like did you look up? Did you see what the 0:09:31.124 --> 0:09:31.964 Senate tried to do? 0:09:32.124 --> 0:09:32.284 Right? 0:09:32.444 --> 0:09:34.244 They're trying to figure out how do I how do 0:09:34.284 --> 0:09:37.164 I game it right? Like they are, This is gamesmanship. 0:09:37.564 --> 0:09:40.244 This is exactly what gamesmanship is, to try to figure 0:09:40.244 --> 0:09:42.204 out how do I gain an edge, how do I 0:09:42.364 --> 0:09:44.924 use the rules to try to do what I want? 0:09:45.244 --> 0:09:48.084 Even though the intention is not that right. I understand 0:09:48.124 --> 0:09:49.844 what the spirit of the Constitution is and I don't 0:09:49.844 --> 0:09:52.164 give a fuck. I'm just going to do like what 0:09:52.284 --> 0:09:55.244 I can within the rules so that so that we win. 0:09:55.644 --> 0:09:59.444 And I think that it's absolutely a game in that respect. 0:09:59.604 --> 0:10:03.124 And it brings out the types of people I've written 0:10:03.124 --> 0:10:05.964 before about kind of the difference between sportsmanship and gamesmanship, 0:10:06.284 --> 0:10:10.924 And the Republicans are definitely much more in gamesmanship, and 0:10:10.964 --> 0:10:14.524 the Democrats are trying to take the higher sportsmanlike road, 0:10:14.644 --> 0:10:17.324 and that ain't working out so well when the other 0:10:17.364 --> 0:10:19.244 people are are better gamesmen. 0:10:20.484 --> 0:10:23.924 Yeah, you know. The White House has also not said 0:10:23.964 --> 0:10:26.364 anything about this in part because they have a candidate 0:10:26.604 --> 0:10:29.204 who is eighty one years old and Aldea, people are 0:10:29.364 --> 0:10:31.724 being too old for office is a big no no 0:10:31.844 --> 0:10:33.404 topic that they don't want to get into. But also, 0:10:33.524 --> 0:10:36.764 like some of it comes down to identity politics. I 0:10:36.764 --> 0:10:39.804 think it's fair to say I personally think if you 0:10:39.924 --> 0:10:43.324 kind of take progressive politics seriously, the notion that like 0:10:43.844 --> 0:10:47.484 having someone who represents the group, I think that's substantively 0:10:47.884 --> 0:10:51.564 smaller impact than like six three versus seven to two 0:10:51.764 --> 0:10:54.364 or down the line, who knows seven two verses eight one, 0:10:54.644 --> 0:10:56.964 or five four versus six three or something like that. 0:10:58.084 --> 0:11:01.004 But this is why I don't really find people who 0:11:01.044 --> 0:11:05.084 are into politics. I don't really they're not my crowd really, right, 0:11:05.524 --> 0:11:07.804 because this is this is such a no brainer. This 0:11:07.884 --> 0:11:10.684 is not quote whereas we talked about Biden the other week, 0:11:10.804 --> 0:11:12.804 like by retiring, it's kind of really tough either way. 0:11:12.804 --> 0:11:15.124 That's really close. This is not close. Now, this is 0:11:15.204 --> 0:11:17.044 like absolute no brainer. 0:11:17.484 --> 0:11:19.324 Totally agree with you. And by the way, I learned 0:11:19.324 --> 0:11:21.204 the hard way. Like when you were saying I think 0:11:21.484 --> 0:11:24.124 a really important point is that you know, seeking the 0:11:24.204 --> 0:11:26.444 status quo kind of saying like oh, like this is 0:11:26.484 --> 0:11:28.884 the this is the safer way to do it is 0:11:29.244 --> 0:11:31.684 oftentimes not safer, right. I learned this the hard way 0:11:31.724 --> 0:11:34.164 when I started playing poker. That like, if you try 0:11:34.244 --> 0:11:37.244 to do nothing, that's also very much in action, right, 0:11:37.324 --> 0:11:39.484 That is, that is very much a choice, that is 0:11:39.564 --> 0:11:42.044 very much doing something, and it's doing something that's not 0:11:42.164 --> 0:11:44.324 optimal and you're not doing it for the right reasons. 0:11:44.324 --> 0:11:46.604 And that's what's happening right now. So like, get your 0:11:46.604 --> 0:11:50.044 ass in gear, actually look at the incentives, look at 0:11:50.084 --> 0:11:52.884 the future, and try to figure out. I think this 0:11:52.964 --> 0:11:55.324 is also really important what risks are worth it and 0:11:55.364 --> 0:11:58.444 what risks aren't because there is so much uncertainty here. 0:11:58.644 --> 0:12:01.164 We don't know what the percentages are because there is 0:12:01.204 --> 0:12:03.724 this uncertainty about you know, who's going to win the presidency, 0:12:03.724 --> 0:12:07.204 who is going to win the Senate? Is that risk 0:12:07.484 --> 0:12:10.084 worth it? And I think in this particular case, it's 0:12:10.124 --> 0:12:12.044 just a slam duck. No, it absolutely is not. 0:12:18.484 --> 0:12:32.404 We'll be right back. Last week, Major League Baseball suspended 0:12:32.484 --> 0:12:37.244 San Diego Padres shortstop Tikipeda Marcano permanently for allegedly having 0:12:37.244 --> 0:12:40.164 bet on baseball games while a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. 0:12:40.444 --> 0:12:42.964 It also suspended four other players of who are now 0:12:42.964 --> 0:12:45.444 in the minor leagues for a year for betting on 0:12:45.564 --> 0:12:49.604 games not involving their teams. So there's been a lot 0:12:49.644 --> 0:12:52.404 of gambling scandal news coming out of baseball and other 0:12:52.444 --> 0:12:55.164 sports slightly of course, earlier this year, maybe the best 0:12:55.164 --> 0:13:00.724 player in the world, Shohe Otane, his former interpreter and BFF. 0:13:00.444 --> 0:13:04.444 Potentially a potentially former BFF. 0:13:03.564 --> 0:13:09.764 I if I committed seventeen million dollars of wirefrag involving 0:13:09.764 --> 0:13:11.364 your account, Maria, would we still be friends? 0:13:12.484 --> 0:13:15.444 Absolutely? Nate, I would forgive You're in a heartbeat, because 0:13:15.684 --> 0:13:18.644 that would mean that I somehow had seventeen million dollars. 0:13:19.084 --> 0:13:21.484 There you go, if you you know what's seventeen million? 0:13:21.524 --> 0:13:22.644 If you signed a fifty. 0:13:22.404 --> 0:13:26.724 Between friends, what's seventeen between what's minus yours'n But as 0:13:26.764 --> 0:13:29.284 you were saying, Misahara plaed guilty. 0:13:29.044 --> 0:13:33.804 Right, he pled guilty, and Major League Baseball closed the investigation, 0:13:33.964 --> 0:13:36.284 which I know. I actually still a couple of questions 0:13:36.324 --> 0:13:40.164 about Otani's involvement that will communiately never hear anything about 0:13:40.204 --> 0:13:43.484 ever again. But yeah, So this is the first suspension 0:13:43.524 --> 0:13:46.204 for gambling at related reasons since Pete Rose, who also 0:13:46.364 --> 0:13:50.244 was alleged to have bet on his own team. Now, Marcano, 0:13:50.764 --> 0:13:54.324 from what I read, has not planned to appeal, at 0:13:54.404 --> 0:13:58.004 least not for right now. In fairness to him, there 0:13:58.084 --> 0:14:01.764 is a somewhat mitigating circumstance, which is that when he 0:14:01.924 --> 0:14:05.204 was making these bets, he was injured, not actively playing 0:14:05.204 --> 0:14:07.564 for the Pirates. But still, the theory of the case 0:14:07.644 --> 0:14:09.724 is that even if you're betting on your own team, 0:14:10.004 --> 0:14:12.764 you still have inside information that's valuable. Right if you 0:14:12.844 --> 0:14:15.564 know that a certain player is healthy and therefore likely 0:14:15.604 --> 0:14:19.004 to play, Right if you know that the team was 0:14:19.124 --> 0:14:21.364 up all night at the strip club, maybe you'd choose 0:14:21.364 --> 0:14:24.604 not to bet that game, for example. So, and this 0:14:24.724 --> 0:14:27.764 is like literally a rule posted in every Major League 0:14:27.804 --> 0:14:31.004 Baseball clubhouse. You bet on games involving your own team, 0:14:31.084 --> 0:14:32.764 you are suspended for life. It is one of the 0:14:32.844 --> 0:14:35.964 least ambuist rules in all of Baseball's rule book. 0:14:36.644 --> 0:14:38.644 Yeah, and I think that it's a rule that makes 0:14:38.724 --> 0:14:42.284 complete sense, right, because if you're betting on your own 0:14:42.324 --> 0:14:46.684 team or providing information, I mean, that is like, that's 0:14:46.924 --> 0:14:50.404 a different kind of inside baseball, right, that is not 0:14:50.524 --> 0:14:53.244 the good kind. And I think that when we see 0:14:53.284 --> 0:14:56.364 suspensions like this, I think it's really important as the 0:14:56.444 --> 0:15:00.204 ubiquity of sports betting goes up, as we have these 0:15:00.244 --> 0:15:02.804 apps everywhere, as it's possible to do all these crazy 0:15:02.804 --> 0:15:05.684 parlay bets, as it's possible to bet while events are 0:15:05.764 --> 0:15:09.324 actually going on, all of these new capabilities that haven't 0:15:09.484 --> 0:15:11.804 existed in the past. I think it's incredibly important to 0:15:11.844 --> 0:15:13.804 be strict about this. By the way, I also think 0:15:13.844 --> 0:15:17.524 it's kind of hilarious in a way. Hilarious might be 0:15:17.524 --> 0:15:21.324 the wrong word. But how bad Marcano still was. I mean, 0:15:21.364 --> 0:15:23.684 I think he won just over four percent. 0:15:24.124 --> 0:15:27.084 Well that's a little so this is something that was mislading. 0:15:27.804 --> 0:15:31.244 There's spin involved here, okay. I mean, so Pason's winning 0:15:31.364 --> 0:15:35.084 four percent of his bets because he's beending multi leg parlays, 0:15:35.204 --> 0:15:37.444 right see, but on the pirates to win, and you 0:15:37.564 --> 0:15:39.964 bet on five other teams to win, and therefore, you know, 0:15:40.084 --> 0:15:42.284 take like two of the fifth power if they're all 0:15:42.284 --> 0:15:44.924 fifty to fifty bets, and so he's doing multi team 0:15:44.964 --> 0:15:48.284 parlays where you usually lose. But like when you win, 0:15:48.364 --> 0:15:50.724 you win a lot. So the four percent is kind 0:15:50.764 --> 0:15:54.244 of misleading. That might be the expected value in terms 0:15:54.244 --> 0:15:57.524 of how often he's supposed to win. There is one 0:15:57.604 --> 0:16:00.844 irony though, which is that like he was apparently using 0:16:00.884 --> 0:16:03.684 one of the legal sports books that like tipped off 0:16:04.284 --> 0:16:08.724 Major League Baseball. So yeah, these guys will, you know, 0:16:08.804 --> 0:16:12.004 squeal on you if you're a major League Baseball player 0:16:12.044 --> 0:16:14.204 you decide to bet on games they are. They have 0:16:14.284 --> 0:16:17.764 incentives though, to be concerned about about action that could 0:16:17.804 --> 0:16:20.724 compromise their deal with the leagues. They have concerns about 0:16:20.764 --> 0:16:23.404 game integrity too. In some ways, I've been surprised there 0:16:23.404 --> 0:16:26.844 hasn't been even more of a backlash. But look, if 0:16:26.884 --> 0:16:29.564 you're a major League Baseball player, my advice to you 0:16:29.764 --> 0:16:33.204 is do not use like DraftKings or fan duel or 0:16:33.484 --> 0:16:35.884 a partner that's in bed with Major League Baseball. Right, 0:16:36.364 --> 0:16:39.084 use some offshore illegal betting website. There's less likelihood of 0:16:39.124 --> 0:16:40.244 being detected. 0:16:40.124 --> 0:16:43.844 Like Epaimzuhara did for seventeen pillion dollars. 0:16:44.164 --> 0:16:48.764 Yeah, at least gave himself a chance, right Epei was 0:16:48.804 --> 0:16:50.324 smart enough to know you're not going to fucking bet 0:16:50.324 --> 0:16:52.724 on fan duel. Then you're drawing dead. 0:16:54.044 --> 0:16:56.284 By the way it is, I think it's interesting to 0:16:56.324 --> 0:16:58.884 note when I was saying that it's it's crucial that 0:16:59.404 --> 0:17:01.564 people are being caught that the four players who were 0:17:01.604 --> 0:17:03.804 suspended for a year, they all bet just a few 0:17:03.884 --> 0:17:06.604 hundred dollars, right like that. That was they didn't make 0:17:06.644 --> 0:17:09.044 big bets, they made tiny bets, and they were still suspended. 0:17:09.484 --> 0:17:12.284 I think that that's actually a really important hardline to 0:17:12.364 --> 0:17:14.324 draw that it doesn't have to be in the millions, 0:17:14.324 --> 0:17:16.484 It doesn't have to be in the hundreds of thousands. 0:17:16.484 --> 0:17:18.524 This was like one hundred bucks, two hundred bucks, you know, 0:17:18.524 --> 0:17:19.564 four hundred bucks. 0:17:19.844 --> 0:17:25.044 Yeah, and you know, Marcano's bets were larger. The totalsme 0:17:25.244 --> 0:17:29.404 was low six figures. But you know, I doubt that 0:17:29.524 --> 0:17:32.924 he is betting to make a profit, right. I mean, 0:17:32.964 --> 0:17:37.404 you take a bunch of competitive young men. In any industry, 0:17:38.324 --> 0:17:40.644 there's a lot of DJM, as we would call it, 0:17:40.684 --> 0:17:44.324 a lot of degeneracy, and things like poker high six 0:17:44.324 --> 0:17:46.244 poker games are often played on the back of team 0:17:46.244 --> 0:17:49.884 planes and things like that. These people are around a 0:17:49.924 --> 0:17:52.164 lot of money all the time. The rookies are not 0:17:52.164 --> 0:17:54.524 making that much, but they're around people who are making 0:17:54.884 --> 0:17:57.364 lots and lots and lots of money. You know, the 0:17:57.364 --> 0:18:02.324 one case where there really was some kind of expected 0:18:02.404 --> 0:18:04.604 value for the person making the bets, was the NBA 0:18:04.644 --> 0:18:08.484 player John tay Porter, who was apparently had been dealt 0:18:08.484 --> 0:18:13.044 in somehow to individual player parlays where why people were 0:18:13.084 --> 0:18:15.684 betting on this obscure player named John tay Porter is 0:18:15.724 --> 0:18:21.324 hard to know, but he basically intentionally tanked the games, right. 0:18:21.324 --> 0:18:24.284 He would intentionally make up a fake injury allegedly. He 0:18:24.324 --> 0:18:28.564 would intentionally like not hustle after rebounds, allegedly so that 0:18:28.724 --> 0:18:31.924 his betters would achieve the under on like how many 0:18:32.044 --> 0:18:34.284 points that John tay Porter would receive, and that was 0:18:34.364 --> 0:18:36.924 very suspicious. I mean, I think the NBA got lucky 0:18:36.924 --> 0:18:39.564 that that scandal broke at about the same time as 0:18:39.564 --> 0:18:43.804 the Otani scandal broke, because that actually affected directly affected 0:18:44.364 --> 0:18:46.964 game integrity, and that's like a kind of deeper level 0:18:47.004 --> 0:18:49.724 of hell, I think than what Markana did. 0:18:50.004 --> 0:18:52.044 I totally agree with you, and I'm really glad I 0:18:52.084 --> 0:18:54.284 was going to bring John tay Porter up because I 0:18:54.324 --> 0:18:56.324 think that what is going on there is actually the 0:18:56.324 --> 0:19:00.524 bigger issue, because it's amazing that he was caught. And 0:19:00.604 --> 0:19:04.004 if you think about the fact that I think the 0:19:04.164 --> 0:19:08.164 much bigger issue isn't players like betting themselves because they'll 0:19:08.164 --> 0:19:11.324 get caught, right, Like you'll figure it out. But players 0:19:11.404 --> 0:19:15.444 giving other betters inside information and then actually affecting outcomes 0:19:15.484 --> 0:19:18.284 when they're in the games, that's much more difficult to police, 0:19:18.404 --> 0:19:20.684 especially if you're smart about it. Right, all of a sudden, 0:19:20.724 --> 0:19:23.204 if you see millions on this obscure player who's then 0:19:23.244 --> 0:19:26.124 pulling off some crazy shit that you know that you 0:19:26.284 --> 0:19:30.124 are thinking of, like, what in the world that's a 0:19:30.164 --> 0:19:33.324 red flag? But imagine you're smarter about it, right, Imagine 0:19:33.324 --> 0:19:35.844 you're actually someone who kind of is a better cheater, 0:19:36.084 --> 0:19:38.564 who kind of stays under the radar, who manages to 0:19:38.604 --> 0:19:41.884 do it a little bit less blatantly, less often fakes 0:19:41.924 --> 0:19:44.684 you know, doesn't fake injuries quite as much, doesn't throw 0:19:44.724 --> 0:19:47.324 games in quite as obvious a way, but does it anyway. 0:19:47.724 --> 0:19:50.404 And that to me is the much bigger and much 0:19:50.444 --> 0:19:54.524 scarier issue, because that can really affect game integrity, It 0:19:54.564 --> 0:19:58.204 can affect the entire kind of gaming community because it 0:19:58.324 --> 0:20:01.044 just goes against the heart of why people play games, 0:20:01.124 --> 0:20:04.604 why people watch games, you know what this is all about. 0:20:05.084 --> 0:20:06.804 And I think that that's the much bigger thing we 0:20:06.844 --> 0:20:07.724 should be thinking about. 0:20:08.004 --> 0:20:12.124 Yeah, betting on the visual accomplishments raises this risk a lot, 0:20:12.324 --> 0:20:15.244 like you should not be taking that much action on 0:20:15.364 --> 0:20:19.164 anything involving John tay Porter, right, Like, who the fuck 0:20:19.204 --> 0:20:21.084 is going to bet that unless they have some type 0:20:21.084 --> 0:20:23.564 of inside angle. I mean I was at like a 0:20:24.404 --> 0:20:27.884 Summer League game in Las Vegas about a year ago. 0:20:27.924 --> 0:20:29.844 Now Summer League coincides with the end of the World 0:20:29.884 --> 0:20:33.084 Series of Poker and watching in the game and see 0:20:33.124 --> 0:20:37.364 like some team executive two rows in front of me 0:20:37.724 --> 0:20:41.844 and giant font on his cell phone is talking about 0:20:41.844 --> 0:20:44.804 how the New York Nixian a trade for og Ananobi, 0:20:45.084 --> 0:20:49.244 which didn't happen then but did actually happen several months later. 0:20:49.284 --> 0:20:52.124 If I having not really it's not really inside information, 0:20:52.204 --> 0:20:54.684 I mean a public area of a stadium, right, But 0:20:54.804 --> 0:20:59.924 like information has a way of slipping out about injuries, 0:20:59.964 --> 0:21:02.924 about fatigue, you know, about like I know, you know 0:21:02.964 --> 0:21:05.484 some people will hang around tennis tournaments, for example, and 0:21:05.804 --> 0:21:07.964 see which player is having like a cheating scandal with 0:21:08.004 --> 0:21:10.804 his girlfriend or looks like they're coming in hungover and 0:21:10.844 --> 0:21:14.284 things like that. You know, information has a way of 0:21:14.444 --> 0:21:17.924 getting out. And to limit your liability by focusing on 0:21:18.004 --> 0:21:22.324 more major and more robust wagering categories would be prudent. 0:21:22.404 --> 0:21:26.244 But you know, but look it's a money grab. The 0:21:26.324 --> 0:21:28.444 long term sustainability of any of this, I think is 0:21:28.484 --> 0:21:31.604 not as assumed as some of the big sports betting 0:21:31.644 --> 0:21:34.324 companies would would right in their stock market and their 0:21:34.324 --> 0:21:37.324