1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:26,044 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:26,084 --> 00:00:28,724 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:28,364 --> 00:00:29,164 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. 4 00:00:29,564 --> 00:00:32,444 Speaker 1: Today we'll be talking about a few different things, starting 5 00:00:32,524 --> 00:00:36,524 Speaker 1: with Justice Sonya Sotomayor and whether or not she should retire. 6 00:00:36,364 --> 00:00:38,804 Speaker 2: And we'll talk about degenerate sports betting in the world 7 00:00:38,844 --> 00:00:41,484 Speaker 2: of professional athletes. A Major League Baseball player were suspended 8 00:00:41,484 --> 00:00:44,684 Speaker 2: for life last week for betting on his own team's games. 9 00:00:45,164 --> 00:00:48,844 Speaker 1: And talking about a different area of degeneracy, we're going 10 00:00:48,884 --> 00:00:50,964 Speaker 1: to be giving you a little taste of the world 11 00:00:51,124 --> 00:00:56,404 Speaker 1: of memestocks with the return of Roaring Kitty aka Keith 12 00:00:56,444 --> 00:00:59,284 Speaker 1: gill get a little bit into what that means for 13 00:00:59,564 --> 00:01:10,604 Speaker 1: the world of trading more broadly, So so Nate. There's 14 00:01:10,684 --> 00:01:12,484 Speaker 1: been a lot of talk, and we've talked about the 15 00:01:12,484 --> 00:01:14,364 Speaker 1: Supreme Court right now and what's going on with it. 16 00:01:14,684 --> 00:01:18,884 Speaker 1: Something that we haven't talked about is the fact that 17 00:01:19,004 --> 00:01:22,284 Speaker 1: one of the only liberal justices, Sonya so to Mayor, 18 00:01:23,244 --> 00:01:26,724 Speaker 1: is reaching a point where she is getting older. She's 19 00:01:26,764 --> 00:01:29,884 Speaker 1: seventy years old. She is not in great health. She 20 00:01:29,924 --> 00:01:34,244 Speaker 1: has diabetes. She often travels with a physician, and we're 21 00:01:34,724 --> 00:01:37,804 Speaker 1: nearing the end of the Biden administration, and as you 22 00:01:37,844 --> 00:01:40,684 Speaker 1: and I have discussed on previous episodes, we don't know 23 00:01:40,724 --> 00:01:42,964 Speaker 1: if Biden is going to get reelected. We don't know 24 00:01:42,964 --> 00:01:45,244 Speaker 1: if the Democrats are going to stay in power. So 25 00:01:45,484 --> 00:01:48,164 Speaker 1: what does this mean for the Supreme Court? What does 26 00:01:48,204 --> 00:01:51,604 Speaker 1: this mean for justice? So to Mayor, should she be 27 00:01:51,764 --> 00:01:56,404 Speaker 1: considering retiring right now? While Biden can still definitely replace her? 28 00:01:57,484 --> 00:02:00,684 Speaker 2: So she is sixty nine, she turns seventy later this month. 29 00:02:01,044 --> 00:02:04,244 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I'm so sorry, Sonya. I aged you and 30 00:02:04,324 --> 00:02:05,684 Speaker 1: I and I apologize. 31 00:02:05,844 --> 00:02:08,244 Speaker 2: That's what we call a newspeg in the business. It's 32 00:02:08,284 --> 00:02:10,684 Speaker 2: almost her seventieth birth. We're getting ahead of the news 33 00:02:10,684 --> 00:02:13,164 Speaker 2: and therefore that's why we're partly why we're doing this now, 34 00:02:13,164 --> 00:02:16,164 Speaker 2: but also because we as you said, Maria, it maybe 35 00:02:16,644 --> 00:02:19,124 Speaker 2: toward the end of Biden's We are toward the end 36 00:02:19,124 --> 00:02:20,764 Speaker 2: of his first term in office, and maybe the end 37 00:02:20,804 --> 00:02:23,564 Speaker 2: of any terms in office. If the polls are right, 38 00:02:23,644 --> 00:02:28,924 Speaker 2: Donald Trump is ahead right now, although it's close. If 39 00:02:29,404 --> 00:02:32,964 Speaker 2: Biden does prevail, Democrats could also lose the Senate. There 40 00:02:33,004 --> 00:02:36,724 Speaker 2: are Democratic held seats, for example, up in West Virginia 41 00:02:36,764 --> 00:02:41,004 Speaker 2: and Montana. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin has retired, so 42 00:02:41,084 --> 00:02:45,924 Speaker 2: that seat's like gone for sure. Montana, to a lesser extent, 43 00:02:46,004 --> 00:02:49,244 Speaker 2: Ohio are tough hoolder Democrats, So even if Biden returns 44 00:02:49,244 --> 00:02:53,524 Speaker 2: to the presidency, you might have an uncooperative Republican Senate. 45 00:02:54,644 --> 00:02:59,284 Speaker 2: So you asked, should she consider retiring, and the answer 46 00:02:59,404 --> 00:03:02,604 Speaker 2: she should not just consider. She should retire today. Go 47 00:03:02,644 --> 00:03:05,244 Speaker 2: take one of these university president jobs everybody is quitting. 48 00:03:05,324 --> 00:03:08,284 Speaker 2: Go be president of Yale or Harvard, or go, you know, 49 00:03:08,684 --> 00:03:12,084 Speaker 2: go make lots of money selling a book co under 50 00:03:12,084 --> 00:03:13,964 Speaker 2: the World Series of Poker main event. I'm sure she's 51 00:03:14,004 --> 00:03:16,644 Speaker 2: a very candy poker player, but she should absolutely retire 52 00:03:16,764 --> 00:03:20,084 Speaker 2: if she actually cares about any of the values that 53 00:03:20,084 --> 00:03:23,124 Speaker 2: she purports secure about, these kind of liberal, progressive values. 54 00:03:23,124 --> 00:03:26,004 Speaker 2: Because she doesn't retire, then she could very easily be 55 00:03:26,044 --> 00:03:30,644 Speaker 2: replaced by another conservative justice, leading to a seven to 56 00:03:30,884 --> 00:03:32,844 Speaker 2: two conservative majority. 57 00:03:33,644 --> 00:03:37,084 Speaker 1: And that is that's going to be difficult to overcome. 58 00:03:37,404 --> 00:03:40,084 Speaker 1: I mean, if we have a seven to two conservative majority, 59 00:03:40,364 --> 00:03:42,364 Speaker 1: it could be I mean, I don't know how many 60 00:03:42,484 --> 00:03:45,724 Speaker 1: presidentss will need before the Supreme Court is more balanced. 61 00:03:46,964 --> 00:03:47,924 Speaker 1: Could be a time. 62 00:03:48,924 --> 00:03:53,204 Speaker 2: So it's not just that like the Supreme Court would 63 00:03:53,284 --> 00:03:55,484 Speaker 2: increase our conerns would increase their majority. It's also that, 64 00:03:55,564 --> 00:03:58,844 Speaker 2: like believe it or not, the Supreme Court agrees on 65 00:03:58,924 --> 00:04:02,924 Speaker 2: more issues than you might think. But where that middle 66 00:04:02,924 --> 00:04:05,884 Speaker 2: point falls is is important. 67 00:04:06,124 --> 00:04:06,324 Speaker 1: Right. 68 00:04:06,444 --> 00:04:09,364 Speaker 2: The fact that it does fall with the Barrett Or 69 00:04:09,484 --> 00:04:12,564 Speaker 2: or Kevina or on some issues. Justice Gorsich is a 70 00:04:12,604 --> 00:04:16,924 Speaker 2: little bit heterodox on some issues versus like an alito 71 00:04:17,124 --> 00:04:19,364 Speaker 2: or something like that. Like that also has a material 72 00:04:19,844 --> 00:04:21,884 Speaker 2: impact as far as how far they will go on 73 00:04:22,204 --> 00:04:22,964 Speaker 2: certain issues. 74 00:04:23,244 --> 00:04:25,804 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, Yeah, and I think that, 75 00:04:25,884 --> 00:04:29,204 Speaker 1: and I think that we should really look at the 76 00:04:29,244 --> 00:04:33,524 Speaker 1: past to kind of guide Justice Sotomayor's decision right now, 77 00:04:33,684 --> 00:04:35,804 Speaker 1: because I'm gonna I'm just gonna go ahead and say this, 78 00:04:36,284 --> 00:04:39,804 Speaker 1: and fellow female liberals are going to get really really 79 00:04:39,804 --> 00:04:42,884 Speaker 1: mad at me, But I am so fucking mad at 80 00:04:43,044 --> 00:04:47,124 Speaker 1: RBG that like, for me, her entire legacy is tainted, 81 00:04:47,404 --> 00:04:51,404 Speaker 1: like the sheer hubris of not retiring when she could 82 00:04:51,444 --> 00:04:53,644 Speaker 1: have been replaced and of being like, no, I'm going 83 00:04:53,724 --> 00:04:57,124 Speaker 1: to live forever. I'm fucking RBG like, look at my 84 00:04:57,244 --> 00:05:01,844 Speaker 1: legacy like I'm invincible, and she, like her legacy is 85 00:05:01,964 --> 00:05:05,804 Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade being overturned. That's her legacy, because if 86 00:05:05,844 --> 00:05:08,084 Speaker 1: she had retired early, we would have had an entirely 87 00:05:08,124 --> 00:05:10,964 Speaker 1: different court. And like I used to be like such 88 00:05:11,004 --> 00:05:13,844 Speaker 1: a you know, such an avid RBG fan, and I'm 89 00:05:13,884 --> 00:05:16,444 Speaker 1: not anymore because I think that with that one decision, 90 00:05:16,524 --> 00:05:19,844 Speaker 1: she's single handedly set woman back much further than she 91 00:05:19,884 --> 00:05:22,244 Speaker 1: ever advanced them. I said it. People are going to 92 00:05:22,524 --> 00:05:24,564 Speaker 1: get mad at me, but I think that that is 93 00:05:24,844 --> 00:05:28,004 Speaker 1: the truth, and I am so pissed at her, like 94 00:05:28,044 --> 00:05:31,004 Speaker 1: from beyond the grave, that I just I can rant forever. 95 00:05:31,804 --> 00:05:33,764 Speaker 2: No, I'm glad you said it. I mean, in the 96 00:05:34,004 --> 00:05:36,604 Speaker 2: Silver Bulletin post I wrote about sort of mayor said 97 00:05:36,604 --> 00:05:40,404 Speaker 2: that her retirement is a political IQ test, and that's 98 00:05:40,484 --> 00:05:42,844 Speaker 2: you know, that's a little bit of invective. She's, I'm 99 00:05:42,844 --> 00:05:45,444 Speaker 2: sure a very smart woman. I'm not sure how smart 100 00:05:45,484 --> 00:05:49,364 Speaker 2: some of the kind of liberal political observers are frankly right, 101 00:05:50,284 --> 00:05:55,124 Speaker 2: because the excuses are dumb. Frankly just dumb. They'll say, well, 102 00:05:55,964 --> 00:05:59,244 Speaker 2: you can't force a Latina justice to retire, Well, sure 103 00:05:59,244 --> 00:06:02,924 Speaker 2: you can. There are lots of qualified Latina associate justices 104 00:06:02,924 --> 00:06:05,404 Speaker 2: and things like that could replace her, if you believe 105 00:06:05,444 --> 00:06:08,124 Speaker 2: that's an important thing to do, right or if people say, oh, 106 00:06:08,164 --> 00:06:11,764 Speaker 2: it's kind of like it ablest to worry about her diabetes. Well, 107 00:06:11,764 --> 00:06:14,004 Speaker 2: I'm sorry if you write in the Constitution that you 108 00:06:14,084 --> 00:06:16,444 Speaker 2: have a lifetime appointment to something, which, by the way, 109 00:06:16,524 --> 00:06:17,804 Speaker 2: I think is a bad idea. I think she'd be 110 00:06:17,844 --> 00:06:20,644 Speaker 2: limited toward eighteen years or something like that. But if 111 00:06:20,684 --> 00:06:25,324 Speaker 2: it's a lifetime appointment, absolutely it's the public's responsibility almost 112 00:06:25,404 --> 00:06:28,244 Speaker 2: to consider, like the health of the justices that it 113 00:06:28,284 --> 00:06:31,844 Speaker 2: plays out strategically. But historically justices wait to time their 114 00:06:31,884 --> 00:06:36,484 Speaker 2: retirements for partisan reasons, right, they want to be replaced 115 00:06:36,524 --> 00:06:39,484 Speaker 2: by the same party that appointed them in the first place. 116 00:06:40,484 --> 00:06:43,404 Speaker 2: So that's not new. You know. Justice Kennedy, for example, 117 00:06:43,444 --> 00:06:46,124 Speaker 2: who was more moderate, did so under Trump when he 118 00:06:46,164 --> 00:06:50,804 Speaker 2: had some time to go. So look, maybe son of 119 00:06:50,844 --> 00:06:53,404 Speaker 2: mayor is not a believer in the polls that show 120 00:06:53,684 --> 00:06:56,884 Speaker 2: Biden trailing, and again that is close. The issue is 121 00:06:57,484 --> 00:06:59,964 Speaker 2: just as much, if not more, about the Senate in 122 00:07:00,004 --> 00:07:03,124 Speaker 2: a long term where in the Senate, North Dakota has 123 00:07:03,164 --> 00:07:05,924 Speaker 2: as many senators as California despite having what it is, 124 00:07:06,004 --> 00:07:08,764 Speaker 2: you know, one fortieth of the population or things like that. 125 00:07:09,084 --> 00:07:12,804 Speaker 2: Currently in the Trumpian coalition, the GOP does better among 126 00:07:13,404 --> 00:07:16,724 Speaker 2: rural voters, white rural voters in particular, and they are 127 00:07:16,724 --> 00:07:20,244 Speaker 2: overrepresented by quite a lot in the Senate. So look, 128 00:07:20,364 --> 00:07:23,604 Speaker 2: if the GOP gets attacked together, they would have potentially 129 00:07:23,644 --> 00:07:26,844 Speaker 2: a relatively durable advantage to the Senate. I do think 130 00:07:26,924 --> 00:07:29,684 Speaker 2: I kind of once you go out more than five 131 00:07:29,764 --> 00:07:32,844 Speaker 2: or ten years, it kind of becomes a fuzzy crystal ball. 132 00:07:32,884 --> 00:07:35,124 Speaker 2: But the basic math is that, like, you don't know 133 00:07:35,164 --> 00:07:38,684 Speaker 2: what's going to happen in terms of medium term political future. 134 00:07:38,884 --> 00:07:41,604 Speaker 2: You're about to turn seventy years old, you have diabetes, 135 00:07:41,724 --> 00:07:44,284 Speaker 2: and like and like I don't know, Like, by the way, 136 00:07:44,644 --> 00:07:47,124 Speaker 2: what is the ego involved here? Like it just kind 137 00:07:47,124 --> 00:07:50,524 Speaker 2: of weirdly, it's weirdly stubborn. It makes me think less 138 00:07:50,564 --> 00:07:52,644 Speaker 2: of people who seek out power, I suppose. 139 00:07:52,964 --> 00:07:55,364 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I totally agree. And by the way, an 140 00:07:55,444 --> 00:07:57,884 Speaker 1: important point that you're making that you didn't make explicit 141 00:07:58,364 --> 00:08:01,244 Speaker 1: is that it matters not just who wins the presidency 142 00:08:01,284 --> 00:08:03,724 Speaker 1: but what the majority is in the Senate. Because let's 143 00:08:03,724 --> 00:08:09,404 Speaker 1: not forget the Garland disaster where Obama tried to appoint 144 00:08:09,604 --> 00:08:12,684 Speaker 1: him and the Senate just literally blocked the hearings and 145 00:08:13,204 --> 00:08:16,724 Speaker 1: Garland didn't even get a chance to be considered, and 146 00:08:16,764 --> 00:08:17,844 Speaker 1: that's something that can happen. 147 00:08:18,284 --> 00:08:19,844 Speaker 2: I mean, it reminds me a little bit of like, 148 00:08:20,564 --> 00:08:24,804 Speaker 2: you know, sometimes the failure to make a change is 149 00:08:24,804 --> 00:08:26,884 Speaker 2: the biggest risk, right, It's like, well, why would I 150 00:08:26,884 --> 00:08:29,444 Speaker 2: disrupt the status quota? Why I have this job? You know, 151 00:08:30,164 --> 00:08:32,724 Speaker 2: seventy years old is not that old for a woman 152 00:08:32,764 --> 00:08:36,204 Speaker 2: who presumably has good health care, even if she has diabetes. 153 00:08:37,244 --> 00:08:40,244 Speaker 2: But like, sometimes the status quo is the riskier is 154 00:08:40,284 --> 00:08:42,724 Speaker 2: the riskier path, right? You know? Right now that she 155 00:08:42,804 --> 00:08:47,244 Speaker 2: can be replaced by another liberal justice. Democrats in the Senate, 156 00:08:47,244 --> 00:08:49,164 Speaker 2: even the Joe Manchins of the world, have been very 157 00:08:49,204 --> 00:08:52,484 Speaker 2: loyal to Biden on judicial appointments. You don't know anything 158 00:08:52,484 --> 00:08:55,844 Speaker 2: beyond what happens in November. And by the way, in 159 00:08:55,924 --> 00:08:59,124 Speaker 2: terms of like pure political tactics, to have a big 160 00:08:59,204 --> 00:09:01,764 Speaker 2: fight over the Supreme Court, this is an issue where 161 00:09:01,764 --> 00:09:05,244 Speaker 2: Democrats now are more charged up and talk about abortion 162 00:09:05,364 --> 00:09:07,724 Speaker 2: rights and things like that. I'm sure whoever is now 163 00:09:07,724 --> 00:09:09,564 Speaker 2: many it would be subject to lots of abuse from 164 00:09:09,564 --> 00:09:12,164 Speaker 2: Republican commentators. This would also be I think a good 165 00:09:12,164 --> 00:09:16,324 Speaker 2: way to rile up democrats generate more enthusiasm, which is 166 00:09:16,364 --> 00:09:20,364 Speaker 2: a bit flagging for Biden right now, But I don't know. 167 00:09:20,564 --> 00:09:22,364 Speaker 2: People are like, well, you shouldn't think of politics in 168 00:09:22,444 --> 00:09:25,924 Speaker 2: terms of expected values. Yes you should, Yes you should. 169 00:09:27,044 --> 00:09:28,924 Speaker 1: By the way, everyone who says it's not a game, 170 00:09:29,324 --> 00:09:31,084 Speaker 1: like did you look up? Did you see what the 171 00:09:31,124 --> 00:09:31,964 Speaker 1: Senate tried to do? 172 00:09:32,124 --> 00:09:32,284 Speaker 2: Right? 173 00:09:32,444 --> 00:09:34,244 Speaker 1: They're trying to figure out how do I how do 174 00:09:34,284 --> 00:09:37,164 Speaker 1: I game it right? Like they are, This is gamesmanship. 175 00:09:37,564 --> 00:09:40,244 Speaker 1: This is exactly what gamesmanship is, to try to figure 176 00:09:40,244 --> 00:09:42,204 Speaker 1: out how do I gain an edge, how do I 177 00:09:42,364 --> 00:09:44,924 Speaker 1: use the rules to try to do what I want? 178 00:09:45,244 --> 00:09:48,084 Speaker 1: Even though the intention is not that right. I understand 179 00:09:48,124 --> 00:09:49,844 Speaker 1: what the spirit of the Constitution is and I don't 180 00:09:49,844 --> 00:09:52,164 Speaker 1: give a fuck. I'm just going to do like what 181 00:09:52,284 --> 00:09:55,244 Speaker 1: I can within the rules so that so that we win. 182 00:09:55,644 --> 00:09:59,444 Speaker 1: And I think that it's absolutely a game in that respect. 183 00:09:59,604 --> 00:10:03,124 Speaker 1: And it brings out the types of people I've written 184 00:10:03,124 --> 00:10:05,964 Speaker 1: before about kind of the difference between sportsmanship and gamesmanship, 185 00:10:06,284 --> 00:10:10,924 Speaker 1: And the Republicans are definitely much more in gamesmanship, and 186 00:10:10,964 --> 00:10:14,524 Speaker 1: the Democrats are trying to take the higher sportsmanlike road, 187 00:10:14,644 --> 00:10:17,324 Speaker 1: and that ain't working out so well when the other 188 00:10:17,364 --> 00:10:19,244 Speaker 1: people are are better gamesmen. 189 00:10:20,484 --> 00:10:23,924 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know. The White House has also not said 190 00:10:23,964 --> 00:10:26,364 Speaker 2: anything about this in part because they have a candidate 191 00:10:26,604 --> 00:10:29,204 Speaker 2: who is eighty one years old and Aldea, people are 192 00:10:29,364 --> 00:10:31,724 Speaker 2: being too old for office is a big no no 193 00:10:31,844 --> 00:10:33,404 Speaker 2: topic that they don't want to get into. But also, 194 00:10:33,524 --> 00:10:36,764 Speaker 2: like some of it comes down to identity politics. I 195 00:10:36,764 --> 00:10:39,804 Speaker 2: think it's fair to say I personally think if you 196 00:10:39,924 --> 00:10:43,324 Speaker 2: kind of take progressive politics seriously, the notion that like 197 00:10:43,844 --> 00:10:47,484 Speaker 2: having someone who represents the group, I think that's substantively 198 00:10:47,884 --> 00:10:51,564 Speaker 2: smaller impact than like six three versus seven to two 199 00:10:51,764 --> 00:10:54,364 Speaker 2: or down the line, who knows seven two verses eight one, 200 00:10:54,644 --> 00:10:56,964 Speaker 2: or five four versus six three or something like that. 201 00:10:58,084 --> 00:11:01,004 Speaker 2: But this is why I don't really find people who 202 00:11:01,044 --> 00:11:05,084 Speaker 2: are into politics. I don't really they're not my crowd really, right, 203 00:11:05,524 --> 00:11:07,804 Speaker 2: because this is this is such a no brainer. This 204 00:11:07,884 --> 00:11:10,684 Speaker 2: is not quote whereas we talked about Biden the other week, 205 00:11:10,804 --> 00:11:12,804 Speaker 2: like by retiring, it's kind of really tough either way. 206 00:11:12,804 --> 00:11:15,124 Speaker 2: That's really close. This is not close. Now, this is 207 00:11:15,204 --> 00:11:17,044 Speaker 2: like absolute no brainer. 208 00:11:17,484 --> 00:11:19,324 Speaker 1: Totally agree with you. And by the way, I learned 209 00:11:19,324 --> 00:11:21,204 Speaker 1: the hard way. Like when you were saying I think 210 00:11:21,484 --> 00:11:24,124 Speaker 1: a really important point is that you know, seeking the 211 00:11:24,204 --> 00:11:26,444 Speaker 1: status quo kind of saying like oh, like this is 212 00:11:26,484 --> 00:11:28,884 Speaker 1: the this is the safer way to do it is 213 00:11:29,244 --> 00:11:31,684 Speaker 1: oftentimes not safer, right. I learned this the hard way 214 00:11:31,724 --> 00:11:34,164 Speaker 1: when I started playing poker. That like, if you try 215 00:11:34,244 --> 00:11:37,244 Speaker 1: to do nothing, that's also very much in action, right, 216 00:11:37,324 --> 00:11:39,484 Speaker 1: That is, that is very much a choice, that is 217 00:11:39,564 --> 00:11:42,044 Speaker 1: very much doing something, and it's doing something that's not 218 00:11:42,164 --> 00:11:44,324 Speaker 1: optimal and you're not doing it for the right reasons. 219 00:11:44,324 --> 00:11:46,604 Speaker 1: And that's what's happening right now. So like, get your 220 00:11:46,604 --> 00:11:50,044 Speaker 1: ass in gear, actually look at the incentives, look at 221 00:11:50,084 --> 00:11:52,884 Speaker 1: the future, and try to figure out. I think this 222 00:11:52,964 --> 00:11:55,324 Speaker 1: is also really important what risks are worth it and 223 00:11:55,364 --> 00:11:58,444 Speaker 1: what risks aren't because there is so much uncertainty here. 224 00:11:58,644 --> 00:12:01,164 Speaker 1: We don't know what the percentages are because there is 225 00:12:01,204 --> 00:12:03,724 Speaker 1: this uncertainty about you know, who's going to win the presidency, 226 00:12:03,724 --> 00:12:07,204 Speaker 1: who is going to win the Senate? Is that risk 227 00:12:07,484 --> 00:12:10,084 Speaker 1: worth it? And I think in this particular case, it's 228 00:12:10,124 --> 00:12:12,044 Speaker 1: just a slam duck. No, it absolutely is not. 229 00:12:18,484 --> 00:12:32,404 Speaker 2: We'll be right back. Last week, Major League Baseball suspended 230 00:12:32,484 --> 00:12:37,244 Speaker 2: San Diego Padres shortstop Tikipeda Marcano permanently for allegedly having 231 00:12:37,244 --> 00:12:40,164 Speaker 2: bet on baseball games while a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. 232 00:12:40,444 --> 00:12:42,964 Speaker 2: It also suspended four other players of who are now 233 00:12:42,964 --> 00:12:45,444 Speaker 2: in the minor leagues for a year for betting on 234 00:12:45,564 --> 00:12:49,604 Speaker 2: games not involving their teams. So there's been a lot 235 00:12:49,644 --> 00:12:52,404 Speaker 2: of gambling scandal news coming out of baseball and other 236 00:12:52,444 --> 00:12:55,164 Speaker 2: sports slightly of course, earlier this year, maybe the best 237 00:12:55,164 --> 00:13:00,724 Speaker 2: player in the world, Shohe Otane, his former interpreter and BFF. 238 00:13:00,444 --> 00:13:04,444 Speaker 1: Potentially a potentially former BFF. 239 00:13:03,564 --> 00:13:09,764 Speaker 2: I if I committed seventeen million dollars of wirefrag involving 240 00:13:09,764 --> 00:13:11,364 Speaker 2: your account, Maria, would we still be friends? 241 00:13:12,484 --> 00:13:15,444 Speaker 1: Absolutely? Nate, I would forgive You're in a heartbeat, because 242 00:13:15,684 --> 00:13:18,644 Speaker 1: that would mean that I somehow had seventeen million dollars. 243 00:13:19,084 --> 00:13:21,484 Speaker 2: There you go, if you you know what's seventeen million? 244 00:13:21,524 --> 00:13:22,644 Speaker 2: If you signed a fifty. 245 00:13:22,404 --> 00:13:26,724 Speaker 1: Between friends, what's seventeen between what's minus yours'n But as 246 00:13:26,764 --> 00:13:29,284 Speaker 1: you were saying, Misahara plaed guilty. 247 00:13:29,044 --> 00:13:33,804 Speaker 2: Right, he pled guilty, and Major League Baseball closed the investigation, 248 00:13:33,964 --> 00:13:36,284 Speaker 2: which I know. I actually still a couple of questions 249 00:13:36,324 --> 00:13:40,164 Speaker 2: about Otani's involvement that will communiately never hear anything about 250 00:13:40,204 --> 00:13:43,484 Speaker 2: ever again. But yeah, So this is the first suspension 251 00:13:43,524 --> 00:13:46,204 Speaker 2: for gambling at related reasons since Pete Rose, who also 252 00:13:46,364 --> 00:13:50,244 Speaker 2: was alleged to have bet on his own team. Now, Marcano, 253 00:13:50,764 --> 00:13:54,324 Speaker 2: from what I read, has not planned to appeal, at 254 00:13:54,404 --> 00:13:58,004 Speaker 2: least not for right now. In fairness to him, there 255 00:13:58,084 --> 00:14:01,764 Speaker 2: is a somewhat mitigating circumstance, which is that when he 256 00:14:01,924 --> 00:14:05,204 Speaker 2: was making these bets, he was injured, not actively playing 257 00:14:05,204 --> 00:14:07,564 Speaker 2: for the Pirates. But still, the theory of the case 258 00:14:07,644 --> 00:14:09,724 Speaker 2: is that even if you're betting on your own team, 259 00:14:10,004 --> 00:14:12,764 Speaker 2: you still have inside information that's valuable. Right if you 260 00:14:12,844 --> 00:14:15,564 Speaker 2: know that a certain player is healthy and therefore likely 261 00:14:15,604 --> 00:14:19,004 Speaker 2: to play, Right if you know that the team was 262 00:14:19,124 --> 00:14:21,364 Speaker 2: up all night at the strip club, maybe you'd choose 263 00:14:21,364 --> 00:14:24,604 Speaker 2: not to bet that game, for example. So, and this 264 00:14:24,724 --> 00:14:27,764 Speaker 2: is like literally a rule posted in every Major League 265 00:14:27,804 --> 00:14:31,004 Speaker 2: Baseball clubhouse. You bet on games involving your own team, 266 00:14:31,084 --> 00:14:32,764 Speaker 2: you are suspended for life. It is one of the 267 00:14:32,844 --> 00:14:35,964 Speaker 2: least ambuist rules in all of Baseball's rule book. 268 00:14:36,644 --> 00:14:38,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that it's a rule that makes 269 00:14:38,724 --> 00:14:42,284 Speaker 1: complete sense, right, because if you're betting on your own 270 00:14:42,324 --> 00:14:46,684 Speaker 1: team or providing information, I mean, that is like, that's 271 00:14:46,924 --> 00:14:50,404 Speaker 1: a different kind of inside baseball, right, that is not 272 00:14:50,524 --> 00:14:53,244 Speaker 1: the good kind. And I think that when we see 273 00:14:53,284 --> 00:14:56,364 Speaker 1: suspensions like this, I think it's really important as the 274 00:14:56,444 --> 00:15:00,204 Speaker 1: ubiquity of sports betting goes up, as we have these 275 00:15:00,244 --> 00:15:02,804 Speaker 1: apps everywhere, as it's possible to do all these crazy 276 00:15:02,804 --> 00:15:05,684 Speaker 1: parlay bets, as it's possible to bet while events are 277 00:15:05,764 --> 00:15:09,324 Speaker 1: actually going on, all of these new capabilities that haven't 278 00:15:09,484 --> 00:15:11,804 Speaker 1: existed in the past. I think it's incredibly important to 279 00:15:11,844 --> 00:15:13,804 Speaker 1: be strict about this. By the way, I also think 280 00:15:13,844 --> 00:15:17,524 Speaker 1: it's kind of hilarious in a way. Hilarious might be 281 00:15:17,524 --> 00:15:21,324 Speaker 1: the wrong word. But how bad Marcano still was. I mean, 282 00:15:21,364 --> 00:15:23,684 Speaker 1: I think he won just over four percent. 283 00:15:24,124 --> 00:15:27,084 Speaker 2: Well that's a little so this is something that was mislading. 284 00:15:27,804 --> 00:15:31,244 Speaker 2: There's spin involved here, okay. I mean, so Pason's winning 285 00:15:31,364 --> 00:15:35,084 Speaker 2: four percent of his bets because he's beending multi leg parlays, 286 00:15:35,204 --> 00:15:37,444 Speaker 2: right see, but on the pirates to win, and you 287 00:15:37,564 --> 00:15:39,964 Speaker 2: bet on five other teams to win, and therefore, you know, 288 00:15:40,084 --> 00:15:42,284 Speaker 2: take like two of the fifth power if they're all 289 00:15:42,284 --> 00:15:44,924 Speaker 2: fifty to fifty bets, and so he's doing multi team 290 00:15:44,964 --> 00:15:48,284 Speaker 2: parlays where you usually lose. But like when you win, 291 00:15:48,364 --> 00:15:50,724 Speaker 2: you win a lot. So the four percent is kind 292 00:15:50,764 --> 00:15:54,244 Speaker 2: of misleading. That might be the expected value in terms 293 00:15:54,244 --> 00:15:57,524 Speaker 2: of how often he's supposed to win. There is one 294 00:15:57,604 --> 00:16:00,844 Speaker 2: irony though, which is that like he was apparently using 295 00:16:00,884 --> 00:16:03,684 Speaker 2: one of the legal sports books that like tipped off 296 00:16:04,284 --> 00:16:08,724 Speaker 2: Major League Baseball. So yeah, these guys will, you know, 297 00:16:08,804 --> 00:16:12,004 Speaker 2: squeal on you if you're a major League Baseball player 298 00:16:12,044 --> 00:16:14,204 Speaker 2: you decide to bet on games they are. They have 299 00:16:14,284 --> 00:16:17,764 Speaker 2: incentives though, to be concerned about about action that could 300 00:16:17,804 --> 00:16:20,724 Speaker 2: compromise their deal with the leagues. They have concerns about 301 00:16:20,764 --> 00:16:23,404 Speaker 2: game integrity too. In some ways, I've been surprised there 302 00:16:23,404 --> 00:16:26,844 Speaker 2: hasn't been even more of a backlash. But look, if 303 00:16:26,884 --> 00:16:29,564 Speaker 2: you're a major League Baseball player, my advice to you 304 00:16:29,764 --> 00:16:33,204 Speaker 2: is do not use like DraftKings or fan duel or 305 00:16:33,484 --> 00:16:35,884 Speaker 2: a partner that's in bed with Major League Baseball. Right, 306 00:16:36,364 --> 00:16:39,084 Speaker 2: use some offshore illegal betting website. There's less likelihood of 307 00:16:39,124 --> 00:16:40,244 Speaker 2: being detected. 308 00:16:40,124 --> 00:16:43,844 Speaker 1: Like Epaimzuhara did for seventeen pillion dollars. 309 00:16:44,164 --> 00:16:48,764 Speaker 2: Yeah, at least gave himself a chance, right Epei was 310 00:16:48,804 --> 00:16:50,324 Speaker 2: smart enough to know you're not going to fucking bet 311 00:16:50,324 --> 00:16:52,724 Speaker 2: on fan duel. Then you're drawing dead. 312 00:16:54,044 --> 00:16:56,284 Speaker 1: By the way it is, I think it's interesting to 313 00:16:56,324 --> 00:16:58,884 Speaker 1: note when I was saying that it's it's crucial that 314 00:16:59,404 --> 00:17:01,564 Speaker 1: people are being caught that the four players who were 315 00:17:01,604 --> 00:17:03,804 Speaker 1: suspended for a year, they all bet just a few 316 00:17:03,884 --> 00:17:06,604 Speaker 1: hundred dollars, right like that. That was they didn't make 317 00:17:06,644 --> 00:17:09,044 Speaker 1: big bets, they made tiny bets, and they were still suspended. 318 00:17:09,484 --> 00:17:12,284 Speaker 1: I think that that's actually a really important hardline to 319 00:17:12,364 --> 00:17:14,324 Speaker 1: draw that it doesn't have to be in the millions, 320 00:17:14,324 --> 00:17:16,484 Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be in the hundreds of thousands. 321 00:17:16,484 --> 00:17:18,524 Speaker 1: This was like one hundred bucks, two hundred bucks, you know, 322 00:17:18,524 --> 00:17:19,564 Speaker 1: four hundred bucks. 323 00:17:19,844 --> 00:17:25,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, Marcano's bets were larger. The totalsme 324 00:17:25,244 --> 00:17:29,404 Speaker 2: was low six figures. But you know, I doubt that 325 00:17:29,524 --> 00:17:32,924 Speaker 2: he is betting to make a profit, right. I mean, 326 00:17:32,964 --> 00:17:37,404 Speaker 2: you take a bunch of competitive young men. In any industry, 327 00:17:38,324 --> 00:17:40,644 Speaker 2: there's a lot of DJM, as we would call it, 328 00:17:40,684 --> 00:17:44,324 Speaker 2: a lot of degeneracy, and things like poker high six 329 00:17:44,324 --> 00:17:46,244 Speaker 2: poker games are often played on the back of team 330 00:17:46,244 --> 00:17:49,884 Speaker 2: planes and things like that. These people are around a 331 00:17:49,924 --> 00:17:52,164 Speaker 2: lot of money all the time. The rookies are not 332 00:17:52,164 --> 00:17:54,524 Speaker 2: making that much, but they're around people who are making 333 00:17:54,884 --> 00:17:57,364 Speaker 2: lots and lots and lots of money. You know, the 334 00:17:57,364 --> 00:18:02,324 Speaker 2: one case where there really was some kind of expected 335 00:18:02,404 --> 00:18:04,604 Speaker 2: value for the person making the bets, was the NBA 336 00:18:04,644 --> 00:18:08,484 Speaker 2: player John tay Porter, who was apparently had been dealt 337 00:18:08,484 --> 00:18:13,044 Speaker 2: in somehow to individual player parlays where why people were 338 00:18:13,084 --> 00:18:15,684 Speaker 2: betting on this obscure player named John tay Porter is 339 00:18:15,724 --> 00:18:21,324 Speaker 2: hard to know, but he basically intentionally tanked the games, right. 340 00:18:21,324 --> 00:18:24,284 Speaker 2: He would intentionally make up a fake injury allegedly. He 341 00:18:24,324 --> 00:18:28,564 Speaker 2: would intentionally like not hustle after rebounds, allegedly so that 342 00:18:28,724 --> 00:18:31,924 Speaker 2: his betters would achieve the under on like how many 343 00:18:32,044 --> 00:18:34,284 Speaker 2: points that John tay Porter would receive, and that was 344 00:18:34,364 --> 00:18:36,924 Speaker 2: very suspicious. I mean, I think the NBA got lucky 345 00:18:36,924 --> 00:18:39,564 Speaker 2: that that scandal broke at about the same time as 346 00:18:39,564 --> 00:18:43,804 Speaker 2: the Otani scandal broke, because that actually affected directly affected 347 00:18:44,364 --> 00:18:46,964 Speaker 2: game integrity, and that's like a kind of deeper level 348 00:18:47,004 --> 00:18:49,724 Speaker 2: of hell, I think than what Markana did. 349 00:18:50,004 --> 00:18:52,044 Speaker 1: I totally agree with you, and I'm really glad I 350 00:18:52,084 --> 00:18:54,284 Speaker 1: was going to bring John tay Porter up because I 351 00:18:54,324 --> 00:18:56,324 Speaker 1: think that what is going on there is actually the 352 00:18:56,324 --> 00:19:00,524 Speaker 1: bigger issue, because it's amazing that he was caught. And 353 00:19:00,604 --> 00:19:04,004 Speaker 1: if you think about the fact that I think the 354 00:19:04,164 --> 00:19:08,164 Speaker 1: much bigger issue isn't players like betting themselves because they'll 355 00:19:08,164 --> 00:19:11,324 Speaker 1: get caught, right, Like you'll figure it out. But players 356 00:19:11,404 --> 00:19:15,444 Speaker 1: giving other betters inside information and then actually affecting outcomes 357 00:19:15,484 --> 00:19:18,284 Speaker 1: when they're in the games, that's much more difficult to police, 358 00:19:18,404 --> 00:19:20,684 Speaker 1: especially if you're smart about it. Right, all of a sudden, 359 00:19:20,724 --> 00:19:23,204 Speaker 1: if you see millions on this obscure player who's then 360 00:19:23,244 --> 00:19:26,124 Speaker 1: pulling off some crazy shit that you know that you 361 00:19:26,284 --> 00:19:30,124 Speaker 1: are thinking of, like, what in the world that's a 362 00:19:30,164 --> 00:19:33,324 Speaker 1: red flag? But imagine you're smarter about it, right, Imagine 363 00:19:33,324 --> 00:19:35,844 Speaker 1: you're actually someone who kind of is a better cheater, 364 00:19:36,084 --> 00:19:38,564 Speaker 1: who kind of stays under the radar, who manages to 365 00:19:38,604 --> 00:19:41,884 Speaker 1: do it a little bit less blatantly, less often fakes 366 00:19:41,924 --> 00:19:44,684 Speaker 1: you know, doesn't fake injuries quite as much, doesn't throw 367 00:19:44,724 --> 00:19:47,324 Speaker 1: games in quite as obvious a way, but does it anyway. 368 00:19:47,724 --> 00:19:50,404 Speaker 1: And that to me is the much bigger and much 369 00:19:50,444 --> 00:19:54,524 Speaker 1: scarier issue, because that can really affect game integrity, It 370 00:19:54,564 --> 00:19:58,204 Speaker 1: can affect the entire kind of gaming community because it 371 00:19:58,324 --> 00:20:01,044 Speaker 1: just goes against the heart of why people play games, 372 00:20:01,124 --> 00:20:04,604 Speaker 1: why people watch games, you know what this is all about. 373 00:20:05,084 --> 00:20:06,804 Speaker 1: And I think that that's the much bigger thing we 374 00:20:06,844 --> 00:20:07,724 Speaker 1: should be thinking about. 375 00:20:08,004 --> 00:20:12,124 Speaker 2: Yeah, betting on the visual accomplishments raises this risk a lot, 376 00:20:12,324 --> 00:20:15,244 Speaker 2: like you should not be taking that much action on 377 00:20:15,364 --> 00:20:19,164 Speaker 2: anything involving John tay Porter, right, Like, who the fuck 378 00:20:19,204 --> 00:20:21,084 Speaker 2: is going to bet that unless they have some type 379 00:20:21,084 --> 00:20:23,564 Speaker 2: of inside angle. I mean I was at like a 380 00:20:24,404 --> 00:20:27,884 Speaker 2: Summer League game in Las Vegas about a year ago. 381 00:20:27,924 --> 00:20:29,844 Speaker 2: Now Summer League coincides with the end of the World 382 00:20:29,884 --> 00:20:33,084 Speaker 2: Series of Poker and watching in the game and see 383 00:20:33,124 --> 00:20:37,364 Speaker 2: like some team executive two rows in front of me 384 00:20:37,724 --> 00:20:41,844 Speaker 2: and giant font on his cell phone is talking about 385 00:20:41,844 --> 00:20:44,804 Speaker 2: how the New York Nixian a trade for og Ananobi, 386 00:20:45,084 --> 00:20:49,244 Speaker 2: which didn't happen then but did actually happen several months later. 387 00:20:49,284 --> 00:20:52,124 Speaker 2: If I having not really it's not really inside information, 388 00:20:52,204 --> 00:20:54,684 Speaker 2: I mean a public area of a stadium, right, But 389 00:20:54,804 --> 00:20:59,924 Speaker 2: like information has a way of slipping out about injuries, 390 00:20:59,964 --> 00:21:02,924 Speaker 2: about fatigue, you know, about like I know, you know 391 00:21:02,964 --> 00:21:05,484 Speaker 2: some people will hang around tennis tournaments, for example, and 392 00:21:05,804 --> 00:21:07,964 Speaker 2: see which player is having like a cheating scandal with 393 00:21:08,004 --> 00:21:10,804 Speaker 2: his girlfriend or looks like they're coming in hungover and 394 00:21:10,844 --> 00:21:14,284 Speaker 2: things like that. You know, information has a way of 395 00:21:14,444 --> 00:21:17,924 Speaker 2: getting out. And to limit your liability by focusing on 396 00:21:18,004 --> 00:21:22,324 Speaker 2: more major and more robust wagering categories would be prudent. 397 00:21:22,404 --> 00:21:26,244 Speaker 2: But you know, but look it's a money grab. The 398 00:21:26,324 --> 00:21:28,444 Speaker 2: long term sustainability of any of this, I think is 399 00:21:28,484 --> 00:21:31,604 Speaker 2: not as assumed as some of the big sports betting 400 00:21:31,644 --> 00:21:34,324 Speaker 2: companies would would right in their stock market and their 401 00:21:34,324 --> 00:21:37,324 Speaker 2: ten k's and things like that. So but you know, 402 00:21:37,364 --> 00:21:40,964 Speaker 2: at the very least they are smart enough to partner 403 00:21:41,004 --> 00:21:44,044 Speaker 2: with the leagues when they detect activity that undermines gain 404 00:21:44,084 --> 00:21:46,644 Speaker 2: and integrity, to at least tip them off to snitch 405 00:21:47,404 --> 00:21:48,244 Speaker 2: on their customers. 406 00:21:48,484 --> 00:21:50,404 Speaker 1: No, absolutely, and I think we're not just talking about 407 00:21:50,444 --> 00:21:52,764 Speaker 1: US sports betting, US sports book. This is happening in 408 00:21:52,804 --> 00:21:55,404 Speaker 1: sports all over the world, and some of the worst 409 00:21:55,524 --> 00:21:58,124 Speaker 1: are actually in Europe and in places where there are 410 00:21:58,164 --> 00:22:00,924 Speaker 1: lots of athletes who are not paid very well. And 411 00:22:00,964 --> 00:22:04,884 Speaker 1: a lot of times they're young, right, they're teenagers. They're 412 00:22:04,964 --> 00:22:08,164 Speaker 1: still developing their sense of self, their sense of kind 413 00:22:08,204 --> 00:22:10,924 Speaker 1: of right and wrong and kind of gray areas and 414 00:22:11,004 --> 00:22:14,764 Speaker 1: long term consequences isn't fully developed. Because, by the way, 415 00:22:14,764 --> 00:22:16,284 Speaker 1: if you're like a seventeen year old guy, you're a 416 00:22:16,284 --> 00:22:20,364 Speaker 1: prefrontal cortex ain't fully developed yet. Your ability to kind 417 00:22:20,404 --> 00:22:23,324 Speaker 1: of think through long term decisions isn't fully developed. And 418 00:22:23,324 --> 00:22:24,844 Speaker 1: if someone says, do you want to make you know 419 00:22:25,124 --> 00:22:28,644 Speaker 1: a quick ten grand, a quick you know this. You're like, Okay, 420 00:22:29,004 --> 00:22:31,204 Speaker 1: you know this might not be a bad idea. All 421 00:22:31,244 --> 00:22:33,404 Speaker 1: I have to do is, you know, if I'm a 422 00:22:33,444 --> 00:22:36,044 Speaker 1: tennis player, I just serve a little bit off right, 423 00:22:36,164 --> 00:22:39,284 Speaker 1: just one time. That's all it takes. I just lose 424 00:22:39,324 --> 00:22:39,804 Speaker 1: one point. 425 00:22:39,844 --> 00:22:40,604 Speaker 2: What's one point? 426 00:22:40,644 --> 00:22:43,084 Speaker 1: You know? I just do this a few times, and 427 00:22:43,524 --> 00:22:46,244 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I have money. And you don't think, wait, 428 00:22:46,364 --> 00:22:49,004 Speaker 1: if I'm caught, there goes my career, and there goes 429 00:22:49,284 --> 00:22:52,004 Speaker 1: kind of any chance I have of all these future earnings. 430 00:22:52,284 --> 00:22:55,124 Speaker 1: You just don't make that math. You're thinking much more 431 00:22:55,204 --> 00:22:59,524 Speaker 1: in the moment. You're thinking much more immediate gratification as 432 00:22:59,524 --> 00:23:02,884 Speaker 1: opposed to kind of long term expected value. And I 433 00:23:02,924 --> 00:23:05,444 Speaker 1: think that that is something that people just need to 434 00:23:05,444 --> 00:23:07,844 Speaker 1: be aware of, need to be aware who the vulnerable 435 00:23:07,884 --> 00:23:10,124 Speaker 1: players are. And I think that teams need to guard 436 00:23:10,164 --> 00:23:12,684 Speaker 1: against that, need to train against that, need to kind 437 00:23:12,684 --> 00:23:14,964 Speaker 1: of talk to them and explicitly say what the long 438 00:23:15,044 --> 00:23:17,444 Speaker 1: term consequences are and remind them a bit. I know 439 00:23:17,484 --> 00:23:20,364 Speaker 1: you said in baseball, you know it can't be more explicit, 440 00:23:20,764 --> 00:23:25,324 Speaker 1: but still like have more reminders, constantly, have these reminders 441 00:23:25,364 --> 00:23:27,364 Speaker 1: of like this is what you don't want to do 442 00:23:27,524 --> 00:23:28,764 Speaker 1: or else it's going to be bad. 443 00:23:29,044 --> 00:23:32,324 Speaker 2: But in an environment that like encourages gambling, where there's 444 00:23:32,324 --> 00:23:34,844 Speaker 2: like draft Kings or FanDuel or Caesars ads on the 445 00:23:34,844 --> 00:23:39,284 Speaker 2: outfield wall and poker games in the team plane, you're 446 00:23:39,404 --> 00:23:42,164 Speaker 2: and neverly going to have some of this with with 447 00:23:42,364 --> 00:23:45,844 Speaker 2: rich young men and not fully formed pre front prefrontal cortexes. 448 00:23:45,884 --> 00:23:49,684 Speaker 1: What is it called, yep, prefrontal cortex Okay, yeah, yeah, no, 449 00:23:49,804 --> 00:23:52,604 Speaker 1: I think that's I think that's exactly right. And if 450 00:23:52,644 --> 00:23:54,964 Speaker 1: we if we want to give kind of a nod 451 00:23:55,004 --> 00:23:58,164 Speaker 1: to the next layer, which is the uh musuhara of it, 452 00:23:58,244 --> 00:24:01,604 Speaker 1: all right, that you have you have also these situations 453 00:24:01,604 --> 00:24:05,604 Speaker 1: where even if someone like Otani isn't cheating directly, isn't 454 00:24:05,644 --> 00:24:09,484 Speaker 1: isn't sports betting, there are incentives for people close to 455 00:24:09,684 --> 00:24:12,364 Speaker 1: these individuals to try to take advantage. 456 00:24:12,764 --> 00:24:15,684 Speaker 2: Major League Baseball seemed pretty excited about being able to 457 00:24:15,724 --> 00:24:18,284 Speaker 2: wrap up that investigation. I mean, there's still a question 458 00:24:19,244 --> 00:24:25,164 Speaker 2: why didn't Otani notice seventeen million dollars missing from his account? 459 00:24:25,364 --> 00:24:26,884 Speaker 2: Like that's a pretty fucking good question. 460 00:24:27,044 --> 00:24:29,524 Speaker 1: I think, yes it is, and we don't know, right, 461 00:24:29,604 --> 00:24:32,604 Speaker 1: and but I think that it's important to just throw 462 00:24:32,644 --> 00:24:37,604 Speaker 1: those questions out there because it is. Even though as 463 00:24:37,644 --> 00:24:40,044 Speaker 1: someone who has seen a lot of victims of con artists, 464 00:24:40,284 --> 00:24:43,164 Speaker 1: I'm very sympathetic to Otani if we look at it 465 00:24:43,204 --> 00:24:46,724 Speaker 1: as a typical con situation that he was potentially conned 466 00:24:46,764 --> 00:24:50,964 Speaker 1: my Musahara, you know, charmed by him, That Musuhara is 467 00:24:51,004 --> 00:24:53,044 Speaker 1: the one who had access to his bank accounts, got 468 00:24:53,044 --> 00:24:55,244 Speaker 1: all the alerts, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Like 469 00:24:55,364 --> 00:24:58,804 Speaker 1: you can make excuses up to a point, but as 470 00:24:58,844 --> 00:25:03,764 Speaker 1: you say, seventeen million dollars is a big number for anyone, 471 00:25:04,084 --> 00:25:07,164 Speaker 1: and so you have to then ask Clake, was he 472 00:25:07,284 --> 00:25:11,124 Speaker 1: knowingly looking the other way? Was he involved? Like what 473 00:25:11,204 --> 00:25:13,404 Speaker 1: was going on? And I think these are questions that 474 00:25:13,444 --> 00:25:15,644 Speaker 1: should be asked, but that won't be asked because the 475 00:25:15,724 --> 00:25:20,644 Speaker 1: incentives are completely misaligned here because nobody wants Otani to 476 00:25:20,684 --> 00:25:23,724 Speaker 1: be involved because he's the star, and we want the 477 00:25:23,764 --> 00:25:27,484 Speaker 1: star to keep being an untarnished star, and we want 478 00:25:27,484 --> 00:25:29,484 Speaker 1: this other guy to take the fall. And I do 479 00:25:29,844 --> 00:25:32,364 Speaker 1: agree with you though that there are still some question marks, 480 00:25:32,364 --> 00:25:35,284 Speaker 1: and unfortunately I think that all we can do is speculate. 481 00:25:35,284 --> 00:25:37,284 Speaker 1: We're never going to know, But I want to be 482 00:25:37,364 --> 00:25:39,484 Speaker 1: careful and not to just say, oh, like this is 483 00:25:39,524 --> 00:25:42,124 Speaker 1: a problem of modern sports books, because like, let's not 484 00:25:42,244 --> 00:25:45,924 Speaker 1: forget you know, the Chicago Black Sox, like shit like 485 00:25:45,964 --> 00:25:48,404 Speaker 1: this has been going on in sports for a very 486 00:25:48,644 --> 00:25:53,524 Speaker 1: very long time before fan dual or DraftKings or any 487 00:25:53,524 --> 00:25:56,204 Speaker 1: of these things. And so these are kind of these 488 00:25:56,244 --> 00:26:00,684 Speaker 1: are problems and deep kind of issues of humanity that 489 00:26:00,764 --> 00:26:02,964 Speaker 1: I think are never going to quite go away no 490 00:26:02,964 --> 00:26:04,324 Speaker 1: matter what the regulations say. 491 00:26:04,884 --> 00:26:07,764 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, there are two categories. One is there may 492 00:26:07,804 --> 00:26:10,604 Speaker 2: be cases where it is in your financial interest to 493 00:26:10,724 --> 00:26:13,564 Speaker 2: throw a game, right, one preventative measure is just paying 494 00:26:13,604 --> 00:26:16,684 Speaker 2: everybody really well, including the umpires, by the way, where 495 00:26:16,724 --> 00:26:19,684 Speaker 2: it's kind of on the surface irrational for you to 496 00:26:19,764 --> 00:26:23,524 Speaker 2: gamble at that point, although sometimes people gamble for irrational reasons. 497 00:26:23,524 --> 00:26:25,044 Speaker 2: For me, one thing you always remind me of is 498 00:26:25,084 --> 00:26:28,124 Speaker 2: that like most con artists are not motivated strictly by. 499 00:26:27,964 --> 00:26:31,804 Speaker 1: Money, Yes, absolutely true. Something I also remind you of, Nate, 500 00:26:31,924 --> 00:26:34,764 Speaker 1: is that even though most con artists are not motivated 501 00:26:34,804 --> 00:26:37,924 Speaker 1: by money, most people are not con artists. And so 502 00:26:38,004 --> 00:26:40,284 Speaker 1: I think that that's a more hopeful way to end 503 00:26:40,364 --> 00:26:44,124 Speaker 1: this segment. That most athletes are also, you know, not 504 00:26:44,204 --> 00:26:48,164 Speaker 1: degenerate gamblers, not con artists, and going to be in 505 00:26:48,204 --> 00:26:50,404 Speaker 1: the sport for the right reason. They want to excel, 506 00:26:50,684 --> 00:26:52,524 Speaker 1: they want to do well. They don't want to throw 507 00:26:52,564 --> 00:27:14,044 Speaker 1: the game. We'll be back in a minute. So recently 508 00:27:14,644 --> 00:27:17,844 Speaker 1: we've seen a resurgence of a stock that we haven't 509 00:27:17,844 --> 00:27:20,444 Speaker 1: heard talked about for a few years now, game Stop, 510 00:27:20,964 --> 00:27:27,244 Speaker 1: because Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill is back. And for 511 00:27:27,324 --> 00:27:30,724 Speaker 1: those of you who followed the Game Stop short squeeze 512 00:27:31,084 --> 00:27:35,684 Speaker 1: several years ago, Roaring Kitty was kind of the big 513 00:27:35,764 --> 00:27:39,804 Speaker 1: force that had game Stop just go on an unprecedented 514 00:27:39,964 --> 00:27:43,604 Speaker 1: run and put some very famous hedge funds out of 515 00:27:43,604 --> 00:27:48,044 Speaker 1: business and ended up, you know, having this just insane 516 00:27:48,124 --> 00:27:51,924 Speaker 1: impact on the markets. And then Keith Gill Roaring Kitty 517 00:27:51,964 --> 00:27:55,964 Speaker 1: went silent, and a few weeks ago, all of a sudden, 518 00:27:56,044 --> 00:27:59,284 Speaker 1: for the first time, this dormant account started posting memes 519 00:27:59,844 --> 00:28:04,884 Speaker 1: and what happened. Game Stop is back, baby. The stock 520 00:28:05,124 --> 00:28:09,404 Speaker 1: just went through the roof once again, and Roaring Kitty 521 00:28:09,444 --> 00:28:12,884 Speaker 1: has since made more posts and shown his own holdings, 522 00:28:13,724 --> 00:28:18,564 Speaker 1: including over one hundred million in game Stop stock, and 523 00:28:19,044 --> 00:28:22,244 Speaker 1: the markets are reacting and game Stop is reacting. The 524 00:28:22,284 --> 00:28:25,164 Speaker 1: sec is reacting. Lots of players are reacting to this 525 00:28:25,484 --> 00:28:29,164 Speaker 1: and trying to figure out what's going on. Is it legal? 526 00:28:29,284 --> 00:28:31,804 Speaker 1: Kind of what are the repercussions of this, Nate? Is 527 00:28:31,844 --> 00:28:33,164 Speaker 1: this something that you've been following? 528 00:28:34,644 --> 00:28:36,964 Speaker 2: I wrote about game stop a little bit in my 529 00:28:37,044 --> 00:28:42,084 Speaker 2: book from the standpoint of game theory. Actually, so, Maria, 530 00:28:42,124 --> 00:28:44,364 Speaker 2: maybe we should actually talk about some of the game 531 00:28:44,444 --> 00:28:47,524 Speaker 2: theory behind shit coins and meme stocks. 532 00:28:47,844 --> 00:28:49,604 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that's a great idea, Nate, because I 533 00:28:49,604 --> 00:28:52,164 Speaker 1: do think that that's central to this conversation. 534 00:28:52,484 --> 00:28:56,844 Speaker 2: And the meming part of it. Eme is actually very 535 00:28:56,884 --> 00:29:00,044 Speaker 2: central to how the game theory works, believe it or not. 536 00:29:00,244 --> 00:29:04,404 Speaker 2: Like to simplify a bit, typically, what you have is, 537 00:29:04,484 --> 00:29:08,284 Speaker 2: let's say you have like an overvalued asset. In principle, 538 00:29:08,804 --> 00:29:13,084 Speaker 2: people who own that asset could sort of literally conspire 539 00:29:13,284 --> 00:29:16,684 Speaker 2: or collude to keep the asset at an artificial value. 540 00:29:16,684 --> 00:29:20,164 Speaker 2: As long as nobody sells, right, then it maintains at 541 00:29:20,204 --> 00:29:23,044 Speaker 2: least nominally its value, or maybe it keeps going up 542 00:29:23,084 --> 00:29:25,364 Speaker 2: if everyone's being like hotal hold on for dear life 543 00:29:25,564 --> 00:29:27,884 Speaker 2: and wants to kind of boost the asset further. So 544 00:29:28,364 --> 00:29:30,884 Speaker 2: the problem with that is that, like you have in 545 00:29:31,004 --> 00:29:34,524 Speaker 2: game theory terms a prisoner's dilemma where every party has 546 00:29:34,524 --> 00:29:40,324 Speaker 2: a strong incentive to defect. Right if Game Stop is 547 00:29:40,364 --> 00:29:45,884 Speaker 2: priced that fifty dollars when the fundamentals price should be 548 00:29:45,924 --> 00:29:49,324 Speaker 2: two dollars or something like that. A share you really 549 00:29:49,404 --> 00:29:51,764 Speaker 2: have a strong incentive to get out while you can 550 00:29:52,324 --> 00:29:56,684 Speaker 2: and take your profits. That could trigger a collapse in 551 00:29:56,764 --> 00:30:00,804 Speaker 2: the share price. However, due to the power of means, 552 00:30:01,284 --> 00:30:04,284 Speaker 2: a sort of coordination is possible in the prisoner's dilemma. 553 00:30:04,564 --> 00:30:07,244 Speaker 2: This is what happens when Maria. Let's say you and 554 00:30:07,324 --> 00:30:11,884 Speaker 2: I commit a and we're in separate jail, says, I 555 00:30:11,884 --> 00:30:14,884 Speaker 2: don't know what's the most likely crime we were to commit. 556 00:30:15,484 --> 00:30:17,524 Speaker 1: I don't want to speculate on this night. You and 557 00:30:17,564 --> 00:30:20,924 Speaker 1: I are complete. Maybe we're not going to get any crimes. Ever, 558 00:30:21,324 --> 00:30:22,604 Speaker 1: so let's say. 559 00:30:22,484 --> 00:30:26,364 Speaker 2: We kidnapped Justice Sonya sot of mayor. Okay, okay, that 560 00:30:26,364 --> 00:30:29,204 Speaker 2: would be a pretty serious crime, very serious. But let's 561 00:30:29,204 --> 00:30:31,644 Speaker 2: say the government is having trouble proving it, and therefore 562 00:30:31,804 --> 00:30:34,964 Speaker 2: we are in separate prison cells, and the government says, well, 563 00:30:35,964 --> 00:30:39,884 Speaker 2: you can confess to the crime and get a lower sentence, 564 00:30:39,924 --> 00:30:43,044 Speaker 2: or you can remain silent and we'll see what happens 565 00:30:43,124 --> 00:30:46,884 Speaker 2: right now. If neither of us were to confess the 566 00:30:46,924 --> 00:30:49,444 Speaker 2: way this works, we would kind of get like a 567 00:30:49,484 --> 00:30:51,604 Speaker 2: slap on the risk because the government can't really prove 568 00:30:51,644 --> 00:30:54,604 Speaker 2: its case. But the game theory is such that not 569 00:30:54,684 --> 00:30:57,884 Speaker 2: being able to coordinate on our strategy, we both wind 570 00:30:57,964 --> 00:31:00,524 Speaker 2: up stitching on one another and wind up getting a 571 00:31:00,564 --> 00:31:03,524 Speaker 2: worse sentence as a result. It's kind of the very simplified, 572 00:31:03,564 --> 00:31:07,924 Speaker 2: podcast friendly version of the prisoner's dilemma. If we could coordinate, though, 573 00:31:08,404 --> 00:31:11,404 Speaker 2: I went to a prediction markets conference this weekend in 574 00:31:11,404 --> 00:31:14,844 Speaker 2: California where a guy had a T shirt on saying 575 00:31:14,884 --> 00:31:18,244 Speaker 2: I cooperate in the prisoner's dilema, meaning that if we 576 00:31:18,284 --> 00:31:20,524 Speaker 2: can single to one another that we are cooperating and 577 00:31:20,524 --> 00:31:23,724 Speaker 2: this is great. Sure, yeah, this is what happens in 578 00:31:23,804 --> 00:31:25,764 Speaker 2: situations like the Internet. 579 00:31:25,844 --> 00:31:26,004 Speaker 1: Right. 580 00:31:26,284 --> 00:31:28,164 Speaker 2: If you're like, we're all of this together against a 581 00:31:28,204 --> 00:31:30,884 Speaker 2: stupid hedge fund, against Wall Street and inherently a stock 582 00:31:31,004 --> 00:31:34,604 Speaker 2: like AMC Theaters or game Stop is like, it's kind 583 00:31:34,644 --> 00:31:36,564 Speaker 2: of a joke, right, These are like kind of Blockbuster 584 00:31:36,724 --> 00:31:40,164 Speaker 2: video dinosaur companies. It's kind of funny. And the fact 585 00:31:40,204 --> 00:31:44,444 Speaker 2: that like that through Matt Levine, the economics writer for 586 00:31:44,484 --> 00:31:47,444 Speaker 2: Bloomberg calls it the meme theory of value. You are 587 00:31:47,484 --> 00:31:50,364 Speaker 2: kind of literally creating something out of nothing. 588 00:31:50,804 --> 00:31:52,964 Speaker 1: Yeah. So I think that we have some bigger questions 589 00:31:52,964 --> 00:31:56,284 Speaker 1: here though, that are like much bigger than Roaring Kitty 590 00:31:56,604 --> 00:31:59,444 Speaker 1: and is more about like the roaring kitties of the world. Right, 591 00:31:59,524 --> 00:32:01,924 Speaker 1: So this, you know, what happened in twenty twenty one, 592 00:32:02,284 --> 00:32:05,524 Speaker 1: totally unprecedented. What's happening right now shows that this is 593 00:32:05,564 --> 00:32:09,684 Speaker 1: a thing that might actually not be so one off, right, 594 00:32:09,724 --> 00:32:13,004 Speaker 1: it might actually be repeating, and we might be in 595 00:32:13,044 --> 00:32:16,004 Speaker 1: a position where kind of memes, stocks, shit coins, these 596 00:32:16,044 --> 00:32:19,004 Speaker 1: types of things really do have an impact on the 597 00:32:19,004 --> 00:32:23,724 Speaker 1: broader financial markets that we see these degrees of irrationality 598 00:32:23,844 --> 00:32:27,324 Speaker 1: or is it irrational that are playing out in the 599 00:32:27,364 --> 00:32:30,564 Speaker 1: broader stock market, where people in kind of the traditional 600 00:32:30,764 --> 00:32:33,884 Speaker 1: market analysis are going to have to look at this 601 00:32:33,924 --> 00:32:36,724 Speaker 1: differently and try to figure out has the world changed. 602 00:32:37,044 --> 00:32:38,924 Speaker 1: Do we need to change how we think about this? 603 00:32:39,244 --> 00:32:40,844 Speaker 1: You know, do we need to change where we think 604 00:32:40,884 --> 00:32:43,764 Speaker 1: the dumb money is or how it operates, or whether 605 00:32:43,804 --> 00:32:46,524 Speaker 1: it's actually dumb? And I think that these are really 606 00:32:46,564 --> 00:32:50,444 Speaker 1: important questions, especially as crypto becomes a much bigger world 607 00:32:50,804 --> 00:32:56,164 Speaker 1: and memes are the universal language. In some ways, these 608 00:32:56,204 --> 00:32:58,364 Speaker 1: are things that just did not exist in the stock 609 00:32:58,364 --> 00:33:01,404 Speaker 1: market or in the financial markets in the past. Yeah. 610 00:33:01,484 --> 00:33:03,324 Speaker 2: Look, it's a little bit of a blow to kind 611 00:33:03,324 --> 00:33:08,844 Speaker 2: of efficient market hypothesis. Clearly, stocks like AMC or GameStop 612 00:33:09,204 --> 00:33:12,404 Speaker 2: are unmoored from any notion of kind of the fundamental values. 613 00:33:12,404 --> 00:33:14,924 Speaker 2: Although with that said, like a lot of things are 614 00:33:14,964 --> 00:33:18,524 Speaker 2: kind of in the eye of a beholder, you know 615 00:33:18,684 --> 00:33:21,844 Speaker 2: why everyone thinks that like a Picasso or a or 616 00:33:21,884 --> 00:33:24,284 Speaker 2: a Keith Herring or whatever else. You know, why are 617 00:33:24,324 --> 00:33:27,044 Speaker 2: those works of art valuable? I mean often I think 618 00:33:27,044 --> 00:33:31,084 Speaker 2: they do have esthetic value, but it's inherently kind of subjective. 619 00:33:31,284 --> 00:33:33,524 Speaker 2: It speaks to, I think the kind of maybe inherent 620 00:33:34,204 --> 00:33:37,444 Speaker 2: unpredictability of the modern world. It speaks a little bit 621 00:33:37,484 --> 00:33:41,164 Speaker 2: to like the way that these kind of faceless, leaderless 622 00:33:41,364 --> 00:33:45,524 Speaker 2: internet mobs, because Arren Kenny is not like giving explicit instructions, 623 00:33:45,524 --> 00:33:48,964 Speaker 2: He's just kind of communicating through through memes and vibes, 624 00:33:49,004 --> 00:33:52,004 Speaker 2: and people kind of infer what he's saying, and it 625 00:33:52,084 --> 00:33:53,924 Speaker 2: kind of starts to chain a momentum that kind of 626 00:33:54,244 --> 00:33:57,084 Speaker 2: can sustain itself for some period of time, and can 627 00:33:57,124 --> 00:33:58,924 Speaker 2: you time it well enough that you kind of get 628 00:33:58,924 --> 00:34:00,764 Speaker 2: out before the bubble inevitably bursts. 629 00:34:01,364 --> 00:34:04,804 Speaker 1: Yeah, And is this something that is going to be replicable? Right? 630 00:34:05,164 --> 00:34:07,924 Speaker 1: I think that I think that that's another question because 631 00:34:08,164 --> 00:34:10,204 Speaker 1: I think other people have tried to be roaring kitty 632 00:34:10,604 --> 00:34:14,044 Speaker 1: and have failed. But I do think that, you know, 633 00:34:14,124 --> 00:34:17,804 Speaker 1: there is irrationality in the stock markets in general, and 634 00:34:17,844 --> 00:34:21,444 Speaker 1: always has been one of my favorite quotes from Daniel Konneman, 635 00:34:21,524 --> 00:34:25,684 Speaker 1: who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work 636 00:34:25,724 --> 00:34:29,444 Speaker 1: on kind of biases and irrationality. He consulted for a 637 00:34:29,444 --> 00:34:31,804 Speaker 1: bunch of hedge funds and he came to the conclusion 638 00:34:32,284 --> 00:34:36,364 Speaker 1: that basically traders were gambling. They were not playing poker. 639 00:34:37,124 --> 00:34:39,684 Speaker 1: And he said that poker players are you know, much 640 00:34:39,724 --> 00:34:42,644 Speaker 1: more much more rational, and can actually, you know, you 641 00:34:42,684 --> 00:34:44,644 Speaker 1: can figure out who the winning players are, where the 642 00:34:44,724 --> 00:34:47,204 Speaker 1: edge is, et cetera. Gambling. If you're just gambling in 643 00:34:47,204 --> 00:34:49,004 Speaker 1: a casino, you can't. And he said, what you guys 644 00:34:49,004 --> 00:34:51,084 Speaker 1: are doing is gambling. And no one listened to him, 645 00:34:51,684 --> 00:34:54,484 Speaker 1: and they thought that he was, you know, just full 646 00:34:54,484 --> 00:34:56,524 Speaker 1: of it, and so they didn't take any of his 647 00:34:56,724 --> 00:35:00,164 Speaker 1: recommendations to heart. And but I think that that's a 648 00:35:00,204 --> 00:35:04,364 Speaker 1: really kind of important insight that this is not necessarily 649 00:35:04,484 --> 00:35:07,044 Speaker 1: counter to how a lot of decision making in the 650 00:35:07,044 --> 00:35:09,684 Speaker 1: stock markets has worked in the past. It's just a 651 00:35:09,804 --> 00:35:13,884 Speaker 1: new element, a new world, and kind of putting some 652 00:35:13,964 --> 00:35:16,204 Speaker 1: of the stuff on steroids, right, blowing it up in 653 00:35:16,244 --> 00:35:18,804 Speaker 1: a way that it hasn't been blown up before, and 654 00:35:18,884 --> 00:35:22,324 Speaker 1: potentially kind of making that exponentially more powerful. 655 00:35:22,844 --> 00:35:26,284 Speaker 2: Maria, I'm not I'm not one to like dispute too 656 00:35:26,404 --> 00:35:28,844 Speaker 2: much the late Daniel Connoman, right. 657 00:35:28,804 --> 00:35:31,924 Speaker 1: Well, that's why that's why I consulted my Okay, that's 658 00:35:31,924 --> 00:35:34,444 Speaker 1: why I couched my views with Danny Connoman, right because 659 00:35:34,444 --> 00:35:36,324 Speaker 1: I know that you can disagree with me, but he's 660 00:35:36,364 --> 00:35:39,324 Speaker 1: he's harder to disagree with. Please continue. 661 00:35:40,924 --> 00:35:44,124 Speaker 2: I don't know, like I when you have like the 662 00:35:44,324 --> 00:35:50,564 Speaker 2: practice of like actual traders betting millions of dollars versus academics, 663 00:35:50,724 --> 00:35:55,444 Speaker 2: even academics as smart as Daniel Conneman, I'm not sure 664 00:35:55,484 --> 00:35:59,364 Speaker 2: I take the academic side. I think it's really easy 665 00:35:59,364 --> 00:36:02,484 Speaker 2: to like come to some theorical conclusion when you don't 666 00:36:02,524 --> 00:36:06,804 Speaker 2: have skin in the game that might not be robust necessarily. 667 00:36:07,124 --> 00:36:09,484 Speaker 2: I talk to a guy named John Coates for my book, 668 00:36:09,524 --> 00:36:14,084 Speaker 2: who is a former trader turned neuroscientists, and he actually 669 00:36:14,124 --> 00:36:15,884 Speaker 2: thought when he was working on desks at Wall Street 670 00:36:15,884 --> 00:36:18,884 Speaker 2: that the traders didn't take enough risk. It's hard to 671 00:36:18,924 --> 00:36:22,044 Speaker 2: get people to be properly, properly risk adjusted until they 672 00:36:22,124 --> 00:36:23,644 Speaker 2: kind of had a winning streak. Then they got all 673 00:36:23,684 --> 00:36:26,124 Speaker 2: this testosterone and other chemicals running around the brain and 674 00:36:26,164 --> 00:36:29,004 Speaker 2: that coome like faeral animals and go kind of crazy, right, 675 00:36:29,044 --> 00:36:33,564 Speaker 2: And that's kind of what can cause bubbles. But yeah, look, 676 00:36:33,644 --> 00:36:36,044 Speaker 2: I mean because there's kind of two forms of efficient 677 00:36:36,644 --> 00:36:40,524 Speaker 2: market hypothesis, right. There's kind of like the hard form that, yes, 678 00:36:41,684 --> 00:36:47,044 Speaker 2: stocks actually do represent a probabilistic discounted projection of future 679 00:36:47,164 --> 00:36:50,244 Speaker 2: corporate earnings, Like that's clearly not true when it comes 680 00:36:50,244 --> 00:36:55,164 Speaker 2: to something like game Stop. The softer form is just that, Okay, 681 00:36:55,524 --> 00:36:57,644 Speaker 2: you think you can meet the market, go ahead and 682 00:36:57,724 --> 00:37:01,244 Speaker 2: try it. You might understand that like yes, GameStop is 683 00:37:01,284 --> 00:37:03,364 Speaker 2: O were valued, but good luck in trying to time 684 00:37:03,444 --> 00:37:05,964 Speaker 2: exactly kind of win that bubble bursts. 685 00:37:07,044 --> 00:37:11,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that the bigger point here when 686 00:37:11,644 --> 00:37:14,444 Speaker 1: you said that anyone can try, And something that I 687 00:37:14,524 --> 00:37:16,764 Speaker 1: think Conoman was trying to get at is that, of 688 00:37:16,844 --> 00:37:19,044 Speaker 1: course there are traders and there are certain investors who 689 00:37:19,044 --> 00:37:21,484 Speaker 1: can beat the markets. Right, there are people who are 690 00:37:21,804 --> 00:37:24,404 Speaker 1: very good at this, who kind of understand, who analyze well, 691 00:37:24,444 --> 00:37:27,324 Speaker 1: who have the right data, right approach, whatever it is. 692 00:37:28,684 --> 00:37:32,164 Speaker 1: But that's not true for the majority. But if you 693 00:37:32,204 --> 00:37:35,524 Speaker 1: talk to anyone individual, they always think that they're the 694 00:37:35,564 --> 00:37:38,444 Speaker 1: ones are who are actually more rational and can beat 695 00:37:38,444 --> 00:37:41,124 Speaker 1: the markets and are making better decisions. And I think 696 00:37:41,124 --> 00:37:45,804 Speaker 1: that that's just an overall human flaw. Yeah. 697 00:37:45,844 --> 00:37:47,924 Speaker 2: Look, if ten percent of people in the world are 698 00:37:47,964 --> 00:37:50,204 Speaker 2: the truly rational ones, there's no guarantee that you're in 699 00:37:50,244 --> 00:37:53,404 Speaker 2: the ten percent. The correlation, like self perception and reality 700 00:37:53,484 --> 00:37:56,284 Speaker 2: is probably fairly discordant sometimes. 701 00:37:56,964 --> 00:37:59,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that that's just something that's very 702 00:37:59,524 --> 00:38:02,604 Speaker 1: important to remember, whether you're a roaring kitty, whether you're 703 00:38:02,644 --> 00:38:06,124 Speaker 1: one of the portfolio managers who is on the other 704 00:38:06,244 --> 00:38:10,524 Speaker 1: side and short game stop, or whether you're someone who's 705 00:38:10,564 --> 00:38:13,324 Speaker 1: just an outside observer thinking how do I get in 706 00:38:13,404 --> 00:38:24,124 Speaker 1: on this in the future and make a killing. You 707 00:38:24,164 --> 00:38:28,124 Speaker 1: and I have totally switched positions this week, Knate, because 708 00:38:28,364 --> 00:38:30,764 Speaker 1: last week when we were recording, I was in New 709 00:38:30,764 --> 00:38:33,524 Speaker 1: Haven about to go to Ireland and you were deep 710 00:38:33,524 --> 00:38:36,244 Speaker 1: in the World Series. And now I am finally back 711 00:38:36,284 --> 00:38:39,244 Speaker 1: in Vegas and you are back in New York City, 712 00:38:39,484 --> 00:38:44,604 Speaker 1: so we have swapped, and unfortunately I'm not making a 713 00:38:44,604 --> 00:38:46,724 Speaker 1: deep run. I've played exactly one event since I've been 714 00:38:46,764 --> 00:38:50,764 Speaker 1: back and I busted. So that didn't that didn't go 715 00:38:50,804 --> 00:38:53,844 Speaker 1: according to plan, and I'll play again today. But you 716 00:38:54,044 --> 00:38:56,844 Speaker 1: managed to go deep in a second event that was 717 00:38:57,004 --> 00:39:00,204 Speaker 1: not the event that we were talking about. So congratulations, 718 00:39:00,804 --> 00:39:01,204 Speaker 1: thank you. 719 00:39:01,324 --> 00:39:03,884 Speaker 2: Although it ended in a very disappointing way. This was 720 00:39:03,884 --> 00:39:05,884 Speaker 2: that five thousand dollars in a limit hold them event 721 00:39:05,964 --> 00:39:06,684 Speaker 2: number sixteen. 722 00:39:07,524 --> 00:39:08,404 Speaker 1: That's a big deal name. 723 00:39:08,564 --> 00:39:11,844 Speaker 2: I finished eighteen place out of eight hundred and something runners. 724 00:39:11,884 --> 00:39:14,004 Speaker 1: However, congratulations, thank. 725 00:39:13,884 --> 00:39:18,164 Speaker 2: You, Maria. I still am mildly heartbroken about it, because. 726 00:39:18,284 --> 00:39:20,604 Speaker 1: You want dolences, congratulate. 727 00:39:20,644 --> 00:39:25,884 Speaker 2: Dolence is like the most common poker emotion basically, So 728 00:39:25,964 --> 00:39:29,284 Speaker 2: I kind of lost on a bad beat, which I'm 729 00:39:29,324 --> 00:39:31,524 Speaker 2: not gonna dwell on. I saw your new substack post, 730 00:39:31,604 --> 00:39:34,684 Speaker 2: Maria about like players complaining about bad beats. But basically 731 00:39:34,724 --> 00:39:38,324 Speaker 2: I had pocket fives against jack ten offsuit on a 732 00:39:38,364 --> 00:39:42,484 Speaker 2: board of jack ten five, So I had a set. 733 00:39:42,724 --> 00:39:44,964 Speaker 2: My opponent have the kind of next best time that 734 00:39:45,004 --> 00:39:47,444 Speaker 2: isn't a set. Which is jack ten for two pair. 735 00:39:47,884 --> 00:39:50,804 Speaker 2: Unfortunately a jacket on the turn. And so this dude, 736 00:39:50,804 --> 00:39:53,284 Speaker 2: by the way, won the fucking event. I think I 737 00:39:53,404 --> 00:39:56,884 Speaker 2: deserved like half his prize pool. Basically would be. 738 00:39:56,924 --> 00:39:59,364 Speaker 1: An awesome nate by the way, if it worked that way, 739 00:39:59,484 --> 00:40:00,764 Speaker 1: that would be a great role. 740 00:40:00,884 --> 00:40:02,964 Speaker 2: You like tag the chips that you have equity in. 741 00:40:03,764 --> 00:40:05,764 Speaker 2: I'm not complaining about this past year. 742 00:40:06,684 --> 00:40:09,204 Speaker 1: Yes, you are just just acknowledged that you're complaining about 743 00:40:09,204 --> 00:40:10,324 Speaker 1: the bat beat and move on. 744 00:40:10,924 --> 00:40:12,764 Speaker 2: We cover important news that the worlds there is a 745 00:40:12,764 --> 00:40:15,364 Speaker 2: poker and part of the news is that a player 746 00:40:15,524 --> 00:40:17,564 Speaker 2: who had a lot of chips was eliminated in eighteenth place, 747 00:40:17,884 --> 00:40:23,444 Speaker 2: you know, conveying the news, all right. However, the news 748 00:40:23,884 --> 00:40:27,524 Speaker 2: my reporting suggests this player got very lucky at several 749 00:40:27,524 --> 00:40:30,444 Speaker 2: earlier points in this tournament. For example, this player had 750 00:40:30,484 --> 00:40:34,364 Speaker 2: pocket queens all against all against aces and the queen's won. 751 00:40:34,844 --> 00:40:37,804 Speaker 2: This player had pocket ten's almost all all in against 752 00:40:38,124 --> 00:40:41,164 Speaker 2: pocket kings and the tens one, for example. 753 00:40:41,604 --> 00:40:48,884 Speaker 1: So player mister Nathaniel Silver got got ridiculously lucky to 754 00:40:48,964 --> 00:40:52,444 Speaker 1: even get to the point where his set could be cracked. 755 00:40:52,684 --> 00:40:56,244 Speaker 1: All right, So let's reframe that as god beats are 756 00:40:56,284 --> 00:41:01,244 Speaker 1: good now, but you did you did bust in unfortunate circumstances. 757 00:41:01,804 --> 00:41:05,004 Speaker 2: Uh, Maria, what about what about Europe? How's the series 758 00:41:05,044 --> 00:41:05,804 Speaker 2: gone for you so far? 759 00:41:05,884 --> 00:41:07,124 Speaker 1: My update sucks? 760 00:41:07,364 --> 00:41:11,724 Speaker 2: Oh no, are you? Are you over? 761 00:41:13,044 --> 00:41:16,164 Speaker 1: I well no, my first event I won the ten 762 00:41:16,244 --> 00:41:17,124 Speaker 1: k bounties, so. 763 00:41:17,404 --> 00:41:18,724 Speaker 2: Oh it's pretty good. 764 00:41:18,924 --> 00:41:22,724 Speaker 1: Yeah, so other together but otherwise zero cashes. 765 00:41:23,324 --> 00:41:26,004 Speaker 2: It's the line between success and failure is soaked in 766 00:41:26,764 --> 00:41:29,124 Speaker 2: in poker, by the way, because like the first week 767 00:41:29,124 --> 00:41:31,404 Speaker 2: into it, I had like one mini cash out of 768 00:41:31,444 --> 00:41:33,244 Speaker 2: been Like now it's like, oh, I'm having a really 769 00:41:33,284 --> 00:41:36,044 Speaker 2: great World series. You know, it's all pretty fucking arbitrary, 770 00:41:36,124 --> 00:41:37,924 Speaker 2: and it all it all. I mean, it doesn't necessarily 771 00:41:37,964 --> 00:41:40,484 Speaker 2: even out. It's like the Gambler's fallacy. But like over 772 00:41:40,604 --> 00:41:41,084 Speaker 2: long rning. 773 00:41:41,164 --> 00:41:42,604 Speaker 1: Thanks for reading my substack. 774 00:41:42,724 --> 00:41:48,204 Speaker 2: Natee read maria subsection. She needs revenue now to make 775 00:41:48,284 --> 00:41:50,004 Speaker 2: up for her poker losses, folks. 776 00:41:50,044 --> 00:41:53,444 Speaker 1: Yes, because the my update sucks is because the one 777 00:41:53,484 --> 00:41:55,844 Speaker 1: event I played was a twenty five thousand dollars by 778 00:41:55,884 --> 00:41:58,284 Speaker 1: an event and I did not cash in it. So 779 00:41:58,364 --> 00:42:00,564 Speaker 1: I went from being flat for the World Series to 780 00:42:00,644 --> 00:42:02,844 Speaker 1: being down twenty five thousand dollars. 781 00:42:03,564 --> 00:42:06,884 Speaker 2: Maybe if you concentrated more on the poker and not 782 00:42:06,924 --> 00:42:09,084 Speaker 2: your newsletter. Maria, you wouldn't have busted. 783 00:42:08,804 --> 00:42:11,964 Speaker 1: Out, but I feel like I owe it to my fans. 784 00:42:11,964 --> 00:42:13,804 Speaker 1: And my newsletter is about all the things I did 785 00:42:13,844 --> 00:42:16,284 Speaker 1: wrong or other people did wrong, so that I played better. 786 00:42:16,484 --> 00:42:18,604 Speaker 1: And today is the day we change all of that 787 00:42:18,764 --> 00:42:21,124 Speaker 1: so that next week, when we're recording, we can talk 788 00:42:21,124 --> 00:42:23,684 Speaker 1: about my deep run. How's that for optimism. 789 00:42:24,244 --> 00:42:24,764 Speaker 2: It's a deal. 790 00:42:25,204 --> 00:42:38,524 Speaker 1: All right, let's do it. That's it for today. We 791 00:42:38,644 --> 00:42:41,844 Speaker 1: have already been getting some listener questions, which is amazing. 792 00:42:42,284 --> 00:42:44,764 Speaker 1: Please keep them coming. We want to hear from you, 793 00:42:45,044 --> 00:42:47,204 Speaker 1: and we will be addressing some of the questions in 794 00:42:47,244 --> 00:42:51,444 Speaker 1: segments on our podcast going forward. We even have an 795 00:42:51,564 --> 00:42:55,244 Speaker 1: email address for you to use. Now, it's just Risky Business. 796 00:42:55,284 --> 00:42:59,004 Speaker 1: One word at Pushkin dot fm. 797 00:42:59,004 --> 00:43:01,044 Speaker 2: And don't forget to rate and review the show. We 798 00:43:01,044 --> 00:43:02,484 Speaker 2: will not tell you which day to give, but you 799 00:43:02,484 --> 00:43:04,724 Speaker 2: can probably infer which ones we like more. 800 00:43:06,364 --> 00:43:10,284 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondakova knee Mate Silver. 801 00:43:11,204 --> 00:43:15,204 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 802 00:43:15,524 --> 00:43:19,404 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 803 00:43:19,444 --> 00:43:23,004 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter chang Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 804 00:43:23,244 --> 00:43:25,644 Speaker 2: And if you want to listen to an AD free version, 805 00:43:25,644 --> 00:43:28,284 Speaker 2: sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six pinninety nine a month, 806 00:43:28,524 --> 00:43:31,604 Speaker 2: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.