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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. It's on target. It

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Speaker 1: is good. Hello.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing in job spect.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 3: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to Wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway. What's up, guys.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Week sixteen Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 3: This is your week sixteen betting preview with odds courtesy

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Speaker 3: of bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action

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Speaker 3: Network Podcast. I'm joined, as always by my Action Network

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Speaker 3: colleague and a prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: First of all, Happy holidays.

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Speaker 3: Second of all, congratulations on your head to head win

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Speaker 3: over me. Third, congratulations on your sweep with the three

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Speaker 3: sides and a total last week on the pod. And fourth, congratulations,

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Speaker 3: I'm making the playoffs in our fantasy league.

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Speaker 1: I look forward to whipping your ass in the first round.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you, thank you. Who cares about last week?

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Speaker 2: We're on the next week. But yeah, I got the

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Speaker 2: teaser too, and I could have swept everything three sides

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Speaker 2: total teaser and got our moneyline dog parlay. If the Ravens, maybe,

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Speaker 2: if the Ravens got the two, the Packers might have

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Speaker 2: still got a field goal. But yeah, it's a good week.

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Speaker 2: Still crazy week trying to figure out who's playing. I mean,

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Speaker 2: there was forty seven guys going COVID on Tuesday. I

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Speaker 2: would assume yeah, I mean, I would make you a

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Speaker 2: pretty substantial favorite in our fantasy playoff matchup. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I just I've just lost all my good guys, hopefully

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Speaker 2: feel and plays Lamar Jackson, plays Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell's out,

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Speaker 2: so pretty much hoping for COVID luck.

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Speaker 3: I gotta get us both props though for last week,

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Speaker 3: because I feel like, you know, we did the two episodes,

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Speaker 3: you know, and just want to thank all the listeners

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Speaker 3: out there. You know, we released two episodes last week

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Speaker 3: because we just did not feel comfortable giving you confident

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Speaker 3: picks on a Wednesday, which is when we usually record

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Speaker 3: for the Thursday release. The listens were around the same

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Speaker 3: number for both episodes, so we really appreciate that, you know,

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Speaker 3: I know it's it's not ideal, but we're back to

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Speaker 3: one episode this week. Hopefully this works out as we

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Speaker 3: record this on Wednesday evening. Hasn't been quite as much

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Speaker 3: COVID carnage this week as last. Obviously, some guys still

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Speaker 3: went on We'll get to that, but overall, I think

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Speaker 3: this is has been a little bit of a more

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Speaker 3: sane week. The one thing stuck I did want to

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Speaker 3: get your opinion on, just off the top, because we

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Speaker 3: talked about it last week. If you're listening to this,

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Speaker 3: you know, when it comes out Thursday, what is your

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Speaker 3: kind of view on it? Like locking in things early

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Speaker 3: given the COVID news, I'm kind of weaning.

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Speaker 1: Towards like unders.

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Speaker 3: I think if you total seemed more likely to go

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Speaker 3: down than up, just giving all the COVID situations. You know,

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Speaker 3: offensive players, quarterbacks, guys can move the line more significantly

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Speaker 3: with everything else.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: You know, if it's I it's around a key number,

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Speaker 3: we think it's gonna go the other way. Maybe you

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Speaker 3: act in but yeah, Nat, I'm waiting, what do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it depends on the situation. I mean, every game

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Speaker 2: is different, but I'm a little more hesitant early on

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Speaker 2: this then I happened in the past. If it is

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Speaker 2: around a key number, I want to grab something like

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Speaker 2: above seven or ten, then I might fire earlier the

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Speaker 2: week and COVID news is gonna go against you, and

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Speaker 2: it's gonna go for you. And if you bet early

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Speaker 2: and you hope that it evens out the NFL seas,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna have a ton of variants. Anyway, This just

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Speaker 2: adds to the variance, which sucks. But hopefully with some

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Speaker 2: of the new protocols it's not as bad down the

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Speaker 2: stretch in the playoffs. But yeah, around key numbers, and

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Speaker 2: then like if a team is dealing with COVID, if

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Speaker 2: one of the other teams, then like like I said, lash,

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Speaker 2: there's smoke, there's fire. So you know, if a team

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Speaker 2: has a couple pop up earlier in the week I

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Speaker 2: might be more inclined to fire against them that most people.

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Speaker 2: Just you know, you want to be cautious, but you

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Speaker 2: also have to understand if you wait until game day,

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Speaker 2: it's the NFL market, the market's probably going to be

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Speaker 2: at the news all right.

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Speaker 1: Before we jump into the Thursday night football preview.

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Speaker 3: And then of course the Sunday six pack, a few

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Speaker 3: quick notes for you guys first, in case you're new here,

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Speaker 3: please download the free award winning Action Network app. It

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Speaker 3: is the top rated app for sports betters and it

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Speaker 3: lets you track every bet that you make. Speaking of

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Speaker 3: the Action App, if you want to reference our Sunday

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Speaker 3: six Pack picks anytime, just use the apps follow feature

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Speaker 3: and follow Sunday six Pack where we lock our top

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Speaker 3: picks every Friday. And Third, Spotify now lets you rate podcasts.

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Speaker 3: So if you listen to the show on Spotify or

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Speaker 3: for you Spotify at all, we would really, really really

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Speaker 3: appreciate it if you gave us a five star rating.

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Speaker 3: It helps us a lot bring the fire to you guys,

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Speaker 3: each and every week. All right, stuck, Let's get into

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 4: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 4: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: So for Week sixteen, we have the forty nine ers

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Speaker 3: traveling to Tennessee to take on the Titans. The Niners

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Speaker 3: are three point favorites at bet MGM. The total is

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Speaker 3: forty three and a half for San Francisco. I already

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Speaker 3: mentioned Elijah Mitchell is out. Drake Greenlaw the linebacker also out.

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Speaker 3: Aziz al Shire, linebacker practiced all week. Looks like he

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Speaker 3: is gonna give it a go, he's questionable. Jaquiski tart

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Speaker 3: is in and for Tennessee Taylor Luan out. Roger Saffold

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Speaker 3: on the COVID list, so he'll be out as well,

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Speaker 3: it looks like, and then Deontay Foreman's in, Julio Jones

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Speaker 3: is in, doesn't even have an injury designation, and AJ

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Speaker 3: Brown is expected to be activated and play as well.

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Speaker 3: Sixty two percent of the bets on the Niners, but

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Speaker 3: fifty eight percent of the money on the Titans as

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Speaker 3: we record this on Wednesday night, and we have tracked

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Speaker 3: sharp action on the under even though three quarters.

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Speaker 1: Of the bets and the money are on the over.

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Speaker 1: So stuck. What do you think of this matchup?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tricky, tricky game with some of the key

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Speaker 2: pieces that are out for the Titans. I mean the

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Speaker 2: Titans since Derrick Henry went down, they are twenty sixth

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Speaker 2: an EPA per play on offense, and the receivers being

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Speaker 2: out hasn't helped. Tannehill turnovers also hasn't helped. You know,

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Speaker 2: he's just been just dreadful. I mean he's twenty ninth

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Speaker 2: and adjusted EPA per play since week nine. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's not there's not a run game down, then you

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Speaker 2: don't have those receivers on the outside of the Tannahall

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Speaker 2: look just looks pedestrian without all the pieces in the

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Speaker 2: play action, and you don't have to worry about Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 2: So the question is now, Okay, how healthy is Julio Jones.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna play, and how much do you get from

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Speaker 2: him and aj Brown? But then now you have to

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Speaker 2: adjust without your whole life side of your offensive line.

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Speaker 2: So and against the San Fran defense, it's been very

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Speaker 2: good against the run all year and the number two

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Speaker 2: in success right against the run. So just trying to

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Speaker 2: figure out where this Tennessee offense is with. Okay, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna get your receivers back, you still't have Derek Henry,

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Speaker 2: but now you're losing two offensive linemen on the left side.

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Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, Jimmy G has

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Speaker 2: been I mean, the forty nine ers offense is rolling.

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Speaker 2: Jimmy G has been great, but I think he's getting

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Speaker 2: a bit fortunate. I mean, if you look at some

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Speaker 2: of his numbers under pressure, he has eight touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: four interceptions under pressure, but he has zero big time

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Speaker 2: throws and ten turnover worthy throws under pressure, but his

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Speaker 2: numbers have still been pretty good. He's getting away with

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Speaker 2: some risky throws and it helps to just be able

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Speaker 2: to just throw it into double coverage and Kittle just

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Speaker 2: comes down with it. But you know, I look at

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Speaker 2: the Titans and this defense, which I was I had

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Speaker 2: a lot of high hopes for early in the season

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Speaker 2: because of all the pressure they were generator. Right, that

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Speaker 2: was the biggest weakness with this Titans defense last year.

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Speaker 2: They just can't generate pressure. And you know, it's not

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Speaker 2: the strongest secondary in the world outside of Buyered at safety.

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Speaker 2: But then early in the year, you know, you had

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Speaker 2: Landry Simmons at Auchry. Those are the three guys that

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Speaker 2: generate the most pressures for them by far. Over the

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Speaker 2: first nine games, Landry forty eight, Simmons forty two, Autrey

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Speaker 2: forty two pressures. Since then over the past five Landry ten,

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Speaker 2: Simmons twelve, Autrey eleven. So that means that Trio had

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty two pressures of the first nine games,

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Speaker 2: that's right around fifteen per game, but only thirty three

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Speaker 2: over the past five that's about six and a half

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Speaker 2: per game. So their pressures have dropped from fifteen a

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Speaker 2: game down to six and a half. So all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden, that pressure is not there now. Grant if

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Speaker 2: they haven't played it, and they haven't played great offenses,

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Speaker 2: so their defense, their defensive numbers haven't looked awful. It's

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Speaker 2: really just turnovers and their offense has been so bad.

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Speaker 2: But this something has happened with the pressure that Tennessee

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Speaker 2: is generating. I don't know if teams are adjusting. If

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Speaker 2: they were, you know, if they have tape on what

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Speaker 2: Tennessee was doing in order to try and generate pressure

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Speaker 2: with stunts and different things up front, and teams are

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Speaker 2: now adjusting and seeing what they're doing because they're just

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Speaker 2: not getting pressure anymore. That's a huge thing that you

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Speaker 2: want to get pressure obviously any week, but especially with

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Speaker 2: Jimmy g So. I think that if you're going to

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Speaker 2: bet a side in this game, I think you would

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Speaker 2: have to bet the Titans. This is the peak of

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers in the market. You're pretty it's

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Speaker 2: you know, it's a good by low cell high spot

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Speaker 2: on the desperate Titans team coming off of a very

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Speaker 2: unlucky loss. Right they lost at the Steeers. They dominated

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Speaker 2: that game I was on the Steelers. It was no

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Speaker 2: business winning that game four turnovers to none the Steeers

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Speaker 2: at one hundred and eighty total yards. They have a

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Speaker 2: minus thirteen turnover margin in the past three losses. Ray

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Speaker 2: Balls and Dog's been good seventeen to eleven against the spread,

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Speaker 2: thirteen and five as a underdog of more than three points.

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Speaker 2: So this is the peak of the forty nine ers market,

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Speaker 2: I think. But I have enough questions about this Tennessee offense,

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Speaker 2: with what going to get from the receivers, the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: and this defense that's trending downward with the pressures. But

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Speaker 2: but I can't. I can't back the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 2: is a three and a half with favorite here.

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Speaker 5: On the road.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's down to three at many books, and

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Speaker 3: it may be three across the board by the time

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Speaker 3: we by the time our listeners get to hear this.

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Speaker 3: Just because I think that Julio, you know, getting off

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Speaker 3: the injury report was a little bit unexpected, given that

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Speaker 3: he didn't practice Monday Tuesday, and then you know AJ

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Speaker 3: Brown likely to be activated. So I kind of agree

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Speaker 3: it's if they weren't getting those.

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Speaker 1: Two guys healthy.

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Speaker 3: I think this would be a forty nine ers bet,

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Speaker 3: one of those bets where like you don't feel good

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Speaker 3: about the number, whether it's three, three and a half,

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Speaker 3: even four, but just kind of like a smash spot

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Speaker 3: for them. I mean, you look at the Titans. In

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Speaker 3: two of their last three games, they've run for two

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Speaker 3: hundred plus yard. They've run for more yards than they

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Speaker 3: passed for in two of the last three games. They

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Speaker 3: are thirteen points in both of those games and lost

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Speaker 3: both of those games. If this team now cannot run

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Speaker 3: the ball, which San Francisco has been excellent, as you

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Speaker 3: mentioned against the run, then you know San Francisco can

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Speaker 3: do its normal you know, twenty to twenty seven point

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Speaker 3: kind of thing, and they don't even have to have

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Speaker 3: all three of Kittle, Samuel and I you go off

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Speaker 3: and they're gonna win this game. But now it's just

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Speaker 3: that now I don't know what I'm getting, like you

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Speaker 3: said from Brown and Jones, because you're now you're talking

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Speaker 3: about the Titans, who are a physical team too, just

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Speaker 3: like the Niners.

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Speaker 1: You know, December football.

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Speaker 3: You gotta be careful sometimes, you know, the numbers say

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Speaker 3: one thing, but then one of these teams a lot

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Speaker 3: more physical and it's just not a good look. But

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Speaker 3: both of these teams I think are pretty physical. I

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Speaker 3: do think it hurts the Titans that they're not getting

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Speaker 3: as muchressure because it's a good offensive line for the Niners.

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Speaker 3: But I think with these two receivers healthy, the Titans,

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Speaker 3: this is what they do. They just stay in games

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Speaker 3: and it could be ugly. They can win ugly, they

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Speaker 3: can lose ugly.

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Speaker 2: But I think, yeah, right, play up and down everybody,

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Speaker 2: and just the key with get ten Hill getting some

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Speaker 2: time because the San Fran defense has been they're banged

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Speaker 2: up in the secondary. They've been very good against the run.

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Speaker 2: They can generate some pressure, but their weakness the deep

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Speaker 2: ball thirty second in the league, dead last defending the

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Speaker 2: deep ball is if Jones and Brown are healthy, that's

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Speaker 2: that's where the Titans have to live. They have to

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Speaker 2: take shots. I'm sure they're gonna try and set up

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Speaker 2: the run, and they've been decent without Hendery, not great,

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Speaker 2: and part of that is defenses don't have the respect. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so you're you're you're able to get some yardage, but

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Speaker 2: that's where they have to attack. They have to attack deep.

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Speaker 2: With this forty nine ers secondary, that's banged up at

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Speaker 2: corner at safety and that's been their weakness. So if

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Speaker 2: Jones and if Jones and Brown are good to go,

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Speaker 2: that's that's where this comes down to. A Tennessee plays

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Speaker 2: up and down to everybody. So I think this ends

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Speaker 2: up being a close game. But I wouldn't buy the

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers at the peak of the market. Tits

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Speaker 2: are nothing at three and a half for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the line is pretty pretty odd.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get into our Sunday six pack presented

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Speaker 3: by our friends at the Athletic Brewing Company.

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Speaker 6: Thursda Deeper Action.

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Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: So stuck with the sweep, the one point for everything,

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Speaker 3: plus the additional bonus forty five for you.

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Speaker 1: I got forty six hit my other two, so probably.

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Speaker 3: Shouldn't have gone against you on the pitch on the

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Speaker 3: Colts might because I actually did go. The Steelers were

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Speaker 3: my third Sunday picks. I did go three and oh

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Speaker 3: on Sunday. After that loss on Saturday, which didn't feel good, I.

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Speaker 2: Had nightmares, nightmares of I mean, the culture of twenty

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Speaker 2: one nothing even started to collapse. I'm oh, yeah, I

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Speaker 2: joke again, and then Taylor breaks the run. I'm yelling

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Speaker 2: for him to go down because the game is over.

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Speaker 2: If he goes down, he scores. So then I'm sitting

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Speaker 2: there and I'm saying, man.

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Speaker 5: What if the Patriots got down, score a touchdown and

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Speaker 5: then decide to go for two because some teams do

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Speaker 5: that now And I'm like, I cannot lose another two

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Speaker 5: and that point today like this, But I completely disagreed

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Speaker 5: with and was so happy that Belichick didn't go for

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Speaker 5: a touchdown on that fourth down. I know that he

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Speaker 5: covered it and said that there was a little less

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Speaker 5: time off, but once he kicked that field goal, I

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Speaker 5: was like, I feel safe now and I don't have

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Speaker 5: to have flashbacks of this getting a back door or

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Speaker 5: anything like that. But yeah, it was. It was nice

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Speaker 5: to get home. Over on to this week. What do

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Speaker 5: you got first?

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Speaker 3: From here and out? We're gonna do one point for

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Speaker 3: every pick. We were doing too far first two early

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Speaker 3: in a year. But given that we usually do record

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Speaker 3: this on Wednesday, you know, obviously there's some uncertainty. I

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Speaker 3: think Stuck, you know, Stuck's Eagles but actually got canceled

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Speaker 3: last week, So just let him take the new line

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Speaker 3: at six and a half, which which cover, which is

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Speaker 3: why you.

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Speaker 2: Got to sweep. We'll do one point for everything, like

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Speaker 2: including the teasers too, so you can get five max

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Speaker 2: still and then if you sweep, you get a six

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Speaker 2: point one point for every side, one point for your

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Speaker 2: total at one point for your teaser.

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Speaker 3: Forty six forty five one point each. I'm a first

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Speaker 3: with the first pick of the week, sixteen Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus three at bet

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Speaker 3: MGM against the Los Angeles Rams. Love the Vikings here

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Speaker 3: as a home underdog first of all these two teams,

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Speaker 3: I think the Rams are a little bit better. That's

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Speaker 3: what the That's what it says on paper. You know,

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Speaker 3: Rams are seventh and waited DVOA, Minnesota's thirteenth. Minnesota's at home.

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Speaker 3: Minnesota actually has a little bit longer rest, even though

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Speaker 3: they played on Monday, because the Rams played on Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: You have a Vikings team that's gonna be I think

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Speaker 3: a little more desperate the Rams. You know, with these

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Speaker 3: COVID issues, they kind of got stole two games, right,

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Speaker 3: we stole one against the Cardinals. Probably still expected them

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Speaker 3: to beat the Seahawks, regardless, but I think they're going

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Speaker 3: to be a little bit less desperate in this spot.

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Speaker 3: Minnesota has been fighting for their playoff lives for for

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Speaker 3: weeks now, and uh.

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Speaker 1: This is the kind of spot I love to buy on.

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Speaker 3: Minnesota and Mike Zimmer as an underdog thirty three and

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Speaker 3: twenty one, sixty two percent against the spread, five and

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Speaker 3: two this season, this.

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Speaker 1: Is also a spot I love to fade.

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Speaker 3: Sean McVay, you know, coming off a multi game straight

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Speaker 3: up winning streak eight and twenty one against the spread,

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Speaker 3: covering just twenty eight percent of the time in his career.

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Speaker 3: So with all those accolates, all that success, you know,

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Speaker 3: all these great seasons, you know, comes a little bit

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Speaker 3: of market inflation because every year McVeigh has the rams

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Speaker 3: in position, you know, whether it's for the playoffs, whether

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Speaker 3: it's for a super Bowl run, whether it's just simply

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Speaker 3: a you know, a five hundred a better record, he's

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Speaker 3: always got them there. But that doesn't translate, you know,

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Speaker 3: necessarily to the spread. It doesn't translate to some of

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Speaker 3: these coin flip games. So eight and twenty one, two

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Speaker 3: and four this season against the spread, when coming off

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Speaker 3: these multi games straight up winning streaks and then I'll.

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Speaker 1: Just throw it in.

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Speaker 3: I don't I don't know how predictive it is anymore.

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Speaker 3: But we talk about Kirk Cousins all the time. For

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Speaker 3: his career sixty nine percent as an underdog at one

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Speaker 3: PM Eastern two and one in this season, he tends

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Speaker 3: to play better early on. So if I can, should

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Speaker 3: be getting some guys back, particularly Adam Steven. I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, THEAAN is a big, big return for them

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Speaker 3: because Cousins obviously has to deal with that ram pass rush.

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Speaker 3: Having THEOAN alongside Jefferson and Cook, I think gives him

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Speaker 3: a third optionnaires for you know, for him to get

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Speaker 3: the ball out quick, which you will do, which is

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Speaker 3: why I don't necessarily worry about them a ton against pressure.

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Speaker 3: They could play those some of those frustrating, lower scoring

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Speaker 3: games in this type of situation, but Minnesota has been

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Speaker 3: in every game this year. They haven't lost a game

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Speaker 3: by more than one possession. So getting plus three at

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Speaker 3: home for this Vikings team, you know, also a good

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Speaker 3: teas piece. But I think they have a very good

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Speaker 3: shot at winning this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I probably would have been on this. The key

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Speaker 2: is stealing in my opinion. I just you know they

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Speaker 2: said he was close last week, he didn't do much

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Speaker 2: in practice today. He needs to play for this offense.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's so big on third down, so big

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Speaker 2: in the red zone. And then without him, you just

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Speaker 2: have Jefferson, who now will be matched up with Jayalen Ramsey. Right.

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Speaker 2: So Rams has been playing outside more of the past

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks, and then all of a sudden, it's like,

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Speaker 2: where are we're going with the ball when you have

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Speaker 2: feeling you can't cover both of them, and that's the

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Speaker 2: Rams weaknesses. They don't have elite corner depth and field

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Speaker 2: is just I mean, he's just so important for that

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Speaker 2: offense in so many different ways. I'll play. There are

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Speaker 2: a couple things that I do like about the Vikings,

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Speaker 2: and I don't know if I'm gonna go teaser or

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Speaker 2: side with them, because I do think there's value. I

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Speaker 2: think this game should be closer to one pick ish

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Speaker 2: depending on deal and status. But there's a couple of

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Speaker 2: things I like about this Vikings roster moving forward. They've

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Speaker 2: upfarded their roster internally, so like they got rid of

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Speaker 2: Rashot Greenland is one of the worst corners in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: and Dancer has been a lot better. Daris saw their

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Speaker 2: rookie tackle. They got him, you know, healthy midway through

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Speaker 2: the year. He's playing a lot better. But most importantly

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Speaker 2: it got mer Shot Hill out of there. He's the

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Speaker 2: worst greatest tackle in the NFL. You know. Then you

395
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Speaker 2: get you know, Mason Cole who's playing for UDO at guard.

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Speaker 2: You made that switch. Cole's playing a lot better than

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Speaker 2: you though. Garrett Bradbury at center. He's starting to play

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Speaker 2: a lot better over the past couple of games. So

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Speaker 2: there's a couple things that I like. And then the

400
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Speaker 2: red zone defense for Minnesota. You saw it last week

401
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Speaker 2: against Chicago, just shine. All the reports from Zimmer were

402
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Speaker 2: all we're doing is working on red zon D, red

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Speaker 2: zone D, red zone D. Their top ten, top five

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Speaker 2: every year. It's like one of those things. The Vikings.

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Speaker 2: Zimmer's defense third down in red red zone D and

406
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Speaker 2: this year they're twenty second. So I expect some positive

407
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Speaker 2: aggression in that aspect as well. The one thing a

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Speaker 2: couple things that I don't like is if you don't

409
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Speaker 2: can't go. It's just I don't this offense is really

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Speaker 2: going to struggle. And Cooper Cupp who's just ripping up

411
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Speaker 2: the league, plays about sixty percent of his snaps in

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Speaker 2: the slot. That means his giving me batched up against

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Speaker 2: Beckenzie Alexander, who is the worst graded corner in the

414
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Speaker 2: NFL out of one hundred and seventeen qualified corners this year.

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Speaker 2: So that's not great. It's like who they're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to double him. I'm not sure what they're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to do there. And the other thing that I want

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Speaker 2: to mention is Kirk Cousins. Yes, he's a lot better

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Speaker 2: in daytime, which is worth noting. He rips up man

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Speaker 2: defense rips. I mean he over the past three years,

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Speaker 2: he leads the NFL and points added against man defense.

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Speaker 2: At one point, I think in October November. Over three

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Speaker 2: year stretch, he had thirty five touchdowns no interceptions against man.

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Speaker 2: Thirty five touchdowns, seventeen interceptions against zone. He rips. He

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Speaker 2: rips up man with these receivers steel And and Jefferson or

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Speaker 2: man beaters, LA plays as much zone as anyone in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. So that's another thing that I'll worry about.

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Speaker 2: But I do think there's value in this line desperate team.

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Speaker 2: You get the rams off of, you know, playing on

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Speaker 2: Tuesday out the going on the road to one of

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Speaker 2: the most hostile environments in the NFL. I think it

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Speaker 2: is Vikings or nothing, but just one of the throwing

433
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 2: a couple Devil's advocate.

434
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, we know with the Vikings.

435
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: With the Vikings, anytime you pick the Vikings, there's a

436
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 3: whole double's advocate like this is the most stressful team

437
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:52,239
Speaker 3: to bet on.

438
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: I'm sure it's a stressful. It would be a fan.

439
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 3: The one thing I'll say about the Man coverage, and

440
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 3: that is a good point. Cousins absolutely does better against Man.

441
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 3: It's because he's a guy who's gonna go with the

442
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 3: right read. And you know, if a guy singled up,

443
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 3: that's advantaged Cousins.

444
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 2: But well, he's got two great receivers.

445
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 3: But I would say this, if you can get if

446
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 3: the ram Yeah, like they've been using Ramsey outside more,

447
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 3: but like if Ramsey's if they're not playing Man, that

448
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 3: means you can also get Jefferson to more advantageous places,

449
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 3: you know what I mean? Like yeah, because because then

450
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 3: you can motion him, you could do different things, you

451
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 3: can wind him up in the spot, see what happens

452
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 3: and if and if anything you're at he's gonna get

453
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 3: the defense to dictate. So that's the one thing about

454
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 3: the Rams, which is it's interesting that they're playing some

455
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 3: zon this year and they've they've been doing fine with it. Yeah,

456
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 3: I agree, theing is big, but still a good spot

457
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 3: for Minnesota home dog getting three.

458
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 2: All right. For my first pick and the second overall

459
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 2: pick of the week sixteen six pack, I'm going with

460
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 2: the Arizona Cardinals minus one at bet MGM at home

461
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 2: against Indianapolis Cults. Yes, I'm backing.

462
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 1: Cliff Cliff Kingsbury.

463
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: There's a lot of things that I do not like

464
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 2: about this Cardinals team. One of them is, I mean

465
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray has just been off. He's twenty fourth and

466
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 2: epa plus completion percentage over expectations since we eight. Cliff Kingsbury,

467
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: by the way we talked about he fades down the stretch.

468
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: I mean he's he's eighteen and eight against the spread

469
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 2: over the first eight weeks and he's nine eleven and

470
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: two thereafter in his career. But there's a couple things

471
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 2: that I like about this spot and this matchup. I

472
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 2: think that this is a classic by low cell high spot.

473
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 2: Cardinals go on the road, they lose as double digit

474
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 2: favorites to the Lions get blown out. Meanwhile, the Colts

475
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 2: have an emotional win over the Patriots and now go

476
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 2: out on the road to Arizona. So let me put

477
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 2: some numbers to that. Teams coming off of a loss

478
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 2: as a favorite in which they didn't cover by at

479
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 2: least twenty four points one oh six sixty two and

480
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 2: two against the spread since two thousand and three, that's

481
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 2: sixty three percent. When that team has a winning percentage

482
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,199
Speaker 2: over fifty percent fifty two and twenty four against the

483
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 2: spread sixty sixty eight percent since two thousand and three,

484
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 2: covering by about six points per game, it's a thirty

485
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: three percent ROI. And how about a week when this

486
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 2: happens a week fourteen or later, seventeen and four against

487
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: the spread eighty one percent, and when the previous loss

488
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 2: came against the team of the losing record in that

489
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 2: fashion twenty five and nine against the spread seventy three

490
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 2: and a half percent. So there are just many many

491
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: try they just speak to the by low cell high

492
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 2: nature of the NFL market. If the Cardinals don't lay

493
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: an egg last week and the Colts lose to the

494
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 2: Patriots and they got some fortunate bounces, then this line

495
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 2: is over three right, and the Cardinals are over a

496
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 2: three point favorite. Here, the Colts are getting very beneficial

497
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: in turnovers, just like Azona, but Indianapols has actually been

498
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 2: a little luckier. Colts NFL leading plus fourteen turnover margin.

499
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 2: Opponents have lost fourteen of twenty two fumbles. And when

500
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: I look at this from a matchup perspective, the Colts

501
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 2: don't really generate pressure. They're you know, about nineteen percent

502
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: on that's the third lowest in the league. The only

503
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: other teams under twenty of the Falcons, Bears, and Giants,

504
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 2: like you're in poverty. So Colts also league low QB

505
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 2: hurry rate, and they play a lot of zone and

506
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: that's not great versus Kyler Murray who eats up zones

507
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 2: and Dave. Colts have also struggled against non standard runs. Right.

508
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 2: I talked about this last week when one of the

509
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: reasons I like them against the Patriots is because they

510
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 2: are so good at just stopping backs and power rushing attacks.

511
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 2: But quarterbacks who run, you know, when you get some

512
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: receivers involved in the running, like non standard runs, the

513
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 2: Colts have struggled a bit so I think that Kyler Murray,

514
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: with his legs and the fact that you're not generating crusher,

515
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: he can buy time fiden holes in the zone, use

516
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 2: his legs here to generate some plays. And I also

517
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 2: think there's some regression coming for Wentz. He's he's begging

518
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 2: for turnovers, he's begging for picks to start coming. So

519
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 2: I just think this is a classic Bilos high spot

520
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 2: on the Cardinals. I still think that I'm you'll still

521
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: be looking to sell the Cardinals as soon as we

522
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 2: get to the playoffs. Think the Colts have higher upside

523
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 2: than the Cardinals. But this is a good matchup for

524
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray, good chance to bounce back, and I think

525
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 2: some value on the Cardinals. I mean, I have these

526
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 2: teams really close to even for my power ratings a

527
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: lot of people I like the Cardinals number two in

528
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: the league, throwing homefield, throwing the spot, throwing the matchup.

529
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,120
Speaker 2: I'll happily take the Cardinals here as a one point

530
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: favorite and hope the Colts, who have treated me very

531
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: well this year, just come out a little flat and

532
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 2: Wentz gives us a couple picks.

533
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the only thing that scares me in

534
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 3: this one is. And it's hard for me to gauge

535
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 3: this because.

536
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: Only thing it's Cliff.

537
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 3: Honestly, Cliff doesn't scare me as much anymore. I think,

538
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: really the thing that scares me is Jonathan Taylor. I

539
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 3: almost don't know how to account for him in modeling anymore.

540
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: I was talking to Kerner about this, but like usually,

541
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 3: you know, you're projecting guys for fantasy, Like if a

542
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: guy gets to five yards per carries at some point

543
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 3: in the season, it's amazing because you know, there's a

544
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 3: lot of regrets, like a lot of regression randomness and that,

545
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 3: so you need a large sample size of a guy

546
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 3: carrying out like a high efficiency to get there.

547
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: And like Jonathan Taylor is.

548
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 3: Just smashing at this year, and so it's like, I

549
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 3: I agree, I think the spot is great. I just

550
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 3: I could see Johnson's I mean, he's probably just gonna

551
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 3: get his his you know, it's like kind of I

552
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: guess it's kind of like betting against the Titans.

553
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: It's like you just you had it just.

554
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 2: To get his, especially against against the Cardinals. He's gonna

555
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 2: get his no matter what. It's like Cooper Cuppo, it's

556
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: gonna get his on the Vikings.

557
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, but uh no, I like the I

558
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 3: like the spot for Arizona. I might end up joining here,

559
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: but just wanted to point that out, Like Johnathan Taylor

560
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 3: scares the living out of me.

561
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 2: Of course.

562
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to my second pick and the

563
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 3: third overall of the week sixteen Weekend six pack. I

564
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: am going with the Las Vegas Raiders minus one and

565
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 3: a half against the Broncos. And this is on paper

566
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 3: pretty email match game Denver eighteenth in overall Dvoa.

567
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: Vegas twenty first.

568
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: But for me, there's just a massive dropt ball from

569
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 3: Bridgewater to Lock. And it might not be evident for

570
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 3: some people, but I just think the way the Broncos

571
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 3: want to play Teddy Bridgewater was perfect, even though he's

572
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 3: kind of an average at best quarterback, you know, relative

573
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 3: to the league, compared to jew Lock.

574
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: It's just night and day.

575
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 3: First of all, you know, Bridgewater on the road was

576
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 3: twenty four and six against the spread in his career

577
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 3: eighty percent. He was forty two and twenty one overall

578
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 3: against the spread. And that's because he doesn't really turn

579
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 3: the ball over, not gonna make a ton of mistakes,

580
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 3: can deliver the ball accurately most of the time, even

581
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 3: if it's not always deep down the field, and it's

582
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 3: just when you look at Lock, look at the passer

583
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: rating in twenty twenty with pretty much the same kind

584
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 3: of group of guys. I know he didn't have Sutton

585
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: for as much, but seventy five passer rating five point

586
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 3: eight adjusted yards per attempt bridge order in twenty twenty

587
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 3: one ninety five passer rating seven point three adjusted yards

588
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 3: per attempt. So you're talking about twenty points of rating

589
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,199
Speaker 3: and a yard and a half of adjusted yards per attempt,

590
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: which for those that don't know, it's just the regular

591
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 3: yards per attemp. But you're adding a plus twenty adjustment

592
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 3: for each touchdown passing and a minus forty for each interception.

593
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 3: So you know, just kind of even out give give

594
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 3: a yardage value essentially for touchdowns and picks, but.

595
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: A yard and a half.

596
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 3: And even if you apply some regression like a yard

597
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 3: anything over a yard, that's a massive drop in terms

598
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: of your expected you know, point differentially. Now you're talking

599
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 3: like over a point into multiple points when you start

600
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: getting into a yard or more of differential here and

601
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: this season, not to mention Lock even worse than last

602
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 3: year fifty nine rating on forty attempts and three point

603
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 3: nine adjusted yards per attempts. That's not even to mention

604
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: that fumble that he just kind of gave away to

605
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 3: the Bengals, which you know that I was glad for

606
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 3: that to happen because I had the Bengals in that game.

607
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: But Denver's gonna run the ball.

608
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 3: I just don't know if Denver has enough year with

609
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: Drew Lock, because without Lock, with Bridgewater there, it's like, Okay,

610
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: now Denver just has to play a mistake free game,

611
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 3: and they probably have a they have a shot against

612
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 3: the Raider, especially if it's you're just talking about covering

613
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: anything under a field goal. But now I almost like

614
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: the Raiders have a margin for error and the Broncos

615
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: really don't. And even with Bridgewater, as I pointed out,

616
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 3: you know, heading into the game against Cincinnati, the Broncos

617
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 3: started the year with the Giants, the Jags, and the Jets,

618
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 3: three of the worst teams in the NFL twenty seven,

619
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 3: thirteen twenty three to thirteen twenty six nothing, So that's

620
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: a seventy six to twenty six differential. Ever since then,

621
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 3: it's been two to oh one to two seventeen in

622
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 3: favor of the opponent. So since then they're minus sixteen

623
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 3: twenty five point one points per game over those first

624
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 3: three games. Since then, they failed to go above twenty

625
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: in seven of eleven games. This offense, even with Bridgewater,

626
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 3: have been struggling mightily against you know, a little bit

627
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 3: more league average competition. And I don't think the Raiders

628
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: are bottom tier. I definitely think they're They're not. They're

629
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 3: not even average, probably below average at best, but they're

630
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 3: not in that giant yet Jaguar tier Drew Locke at

631
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 3: the Helm. I think the Raiders get it going here.

632
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: You know, kind of saw them in a similar game

633
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 3: against the Browns and they eat one out at the end.

634
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 1: It was ugly. I expect something similar here, so you know,

635
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: this is one.

636
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 3: I got it at at a plus one.

637
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: Would like it up to two and a half three.

638
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 3: I don't think I'd feel comfortable past that, but I'd

639
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 3: say the sooner you get the lower you get the

640
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 3: number obviously the better because it could be another one

641
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 3: of those sixteen to fourteen slug fests.

642
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: But just this the drop off from Lock to Bridgewater

643
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: is too much for me.

644
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 3: To ignore in this offense, especially when Denver's not doing

645
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 3: a good job of utilizing the pieces that they have

646
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 3: outside of Williams and Gordon. I mean, Sutton has disappeared.

647
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 3: Patrick has disappeared every since he signed a contract, except

648
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 3: for you know, momentary like flashes here and there. He's

649
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 3: not been that same consistent guy with all three of him,

650
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 3: Judy and and Sutton on the field, and then Judy

651
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: you know, kind of goes missing and still hasn't found

652
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 3: the end zone this year.

653
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: Fanton Oakawebu noa.

654
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: I'm kind of you know, they're solid, but they're not

655
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 3: making like difference making plays the offensive line.

656
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: Sometimes the starters look worse than the backups.

657
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 3: It's just just not an offense that I expect to

658
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: do much here against the Raiders.

659
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't get behind this one. Maybe if Darren

660
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 2: Waller plays, but he's that's such just such a huge

661
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 2: name to keep your eye on. I don't think he's

662
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 2: going to play, but he's just so important to that offense.

663
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 2: He opens up things to redfro you gotta double him,

664
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: and just without him, the offense is just I mean,

665
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: look at what this Raiders team has done after the

666
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: bye week. They got seven games after the bye. They're

667
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 2: two and five. Their wins came over the Cowboys on

668
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving due to thirty points because of penalties. Sean Hockeley

669
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: wanted them to win for whatever reason, and the Browns

670
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: like the Browns JV team. That's it. They've only surpassed

671
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 2: seventeen points once and that was the Sean Hockeyley game.

672
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 2: In all seven of those games, their defense is thirty

673
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 2: first in EPA for play over that stretch, so they're

674
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 2: kind of in free fall. They have these two really

675
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: lucky wins. They got a field goal the Buzzer, then

676
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: an overtime win against JV team, and Rep assistant Drew

677
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,959
Speaker 2: Locke is starting. I trust the Denner defense in their

678
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: run game a little bit more. I prefer just to

679
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 2: tease the Broncos up, but I'll get to that in

680
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 2: a bit, all right. So for my second pick and

681
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 2: the fourth overall of the week, sixteen to six pack,

682
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:51,959
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus ten. See if

683
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: you can get a plus ten and a half plus

684
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 2: eleven out there. This line is just way too high

685
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: for a road division game with a banged up Bucks team.

686
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it is brote Brady off

687
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: a loss, Brady off a loss, angry Brady. By the way,

688
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: can't we call twning calls on Brady? We call him

689
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 2: when everyone else we're just looking at people with Brady's

690
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: like fuck you and coaches faces, and we don't call

691
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 2: tawning on him. Must be nice, Tom. But that was

692
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 2: a beautiful thing for my under last week just watching com.

693
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, that was the under call of the year,

694
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: just like nine Zio.

695
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 2: I know what, even I don't think anyone got inside

696
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 2: of the twenty the entire time. But anyway, Brady Brady's

697
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: forty two and sixteen against the spread off a loss

698
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 2: seventy two percent, I mean just starting last year, after

699
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 2: the Saints rolled him and held him to three points,

700
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 2: he went up to Carolina and destroyed them. But eleven

701
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 2: and twelve in the spot is a favorite of seven

702
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: or more points. So a lot of times you know

703
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 2: when he's a dog or a favorite of seven or less.

704
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: He's thirty one and four against the spread in the spot.

705
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 2: This is different laying double digits on the road in

706
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: a division game with no Godwin, no Evans, no four

707
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: net Lavonte David is out. I mean, you saw what

708
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 2: this offense look like when all their skill position players

709
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: went out. You got Gronk, Well, guess what the Panthers

710
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 2: are really good against tight ends. And then you got

711
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 2: you got Antonio Brown coming back presumably he's fully healthy. Great,

712
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: that's all you have to shut down. So and the

713
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 2: other thing is that Carolina has the defense that can

714
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 2: give Brady problems. Right, they can play a lot of

715
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: man and they can generate pressure up front. Panthers have

716
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: a league high twenty nine point seven percent pressure rate

717
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 2: Brady fifty seven point six adjusted completion percentage and five

718
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 2: point six yards per attempt under pressure this year. That's

719
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 2: twenty eighth and twenty fourth among qualified quarterbacks. That's what

720
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,919
Speaker 2: you have to do. Throw Brady off his game, play man,

721
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: get pressure. Cam Newton's gonna get the start, which sucks

722
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 2: at this point. I'd rather have Sam Donald in. But

723
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:45,399
Speaker 2: Sam Donald's gonna play is the word. So if if

724
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 2: Cam Newton is completely ineft, and you know, hopefully he's

725
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 2: not throwing picks, then you get Sam Donald in there.

726
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: The only the thing that Sam Donald can do well

727
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 2: is throw short passes. So that's like what you need

728
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 2: to do to move the ball against Tampa. But I'm

729
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 2: not going to sit here and say that this Tampa's

730
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: run defense hasn't been as dominant as usual. But I'm

731
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 2: not going to sit here and make a case for

732
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: the Kron offense. I just think this is too many

733
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 2: points against a really crippled Tampa offense. I don't care

734
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,959
Speaker 2: about Brady all the lost. So this is basically Panther

735
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: has been so disappointed. They this is now their super Bowl, right,

736
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: I mean, your home game against the defending champs and

737
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 2: Tom Brady. This is it for them. This is there.

738
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 2: It's gonna be either their season highlight or low light.

739
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: They're not going anywhere this year, so it comes down

740
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 2: to this. But at the end of the day, this

741
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 2: line is too high with the cluster injuries that the

742
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,800
Speaker 2: the Bucks have, and so yeah, I'm going with the

743
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: Carolina battle.

744
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 1: Hate it.

745
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 3: You know, I'd like to get confirmation at Evans uh,

746
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 3: you know he's going to be in er out first.

747
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: I think he is worth a lot to this line,

748
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 3: or more than usual at wide receiver giving.

749
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: I just doubt they would play him like they're in

750
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 2: the playoffs. They doesn't look good for a one seed

751
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 2: and it's a hamstring. You already lost Godwin. Why are

752
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: you going to risk Evans hamstring? Right?

753
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean if it just changes, it changes the

754
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 3: game because then you have Gronk Brown and Evans. That's

755
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 3: not that's kind of like having Godwin Evan.

756
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Avans plays, it's completely different because the Carolina

757
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: has some injuries. Are Corner now Gilmore.

758
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 1: Different act and I are Yeah, yeah, so it's yeah.

759
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 2: Gilmore came out and said, I don't know why I

760
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 2: was on the list the whole play, but yeah, I

761
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: I just don't see how if you're Tampa you can

762
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 2: throw your double digit favors, you're probably gonna beIN this

763
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 2: game anyway. You can throw Evans out there already lost,

764
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: after you've already lost Godwin, after you've already lost for that,

765
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 2: and throw him out there with a hamstring injury. That

766
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 2: can linger. I mean you got to right, you can

767
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 2: rest him. They got the Jets next. I assume they're

768
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:39,280
Speaker 2: gonna rest him for three straight weeks.

769
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's kind of the only thing. It's same

770
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 3: thing with the total on this game. It's like I

771
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 3: would like the under, but Evans hasn't been officially ruled out.

772
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 3: He's just he was a d MP on Wednesday, so

773
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 3: we kind of have to see how that one goes.

774
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 3: But you're still getting double digits for a home divisional dog,

775
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 3: so don't hate it all right. For my third pick

776
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 3: in the fifth overall week sixteen weekend six pack, I'm

777
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 3: going with the Baltimore Ravens plus two and a half

778
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 3: at Cincinnati.

779
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 1: This is one I would recommend holding.

780
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 3: Off see if we get the three, depending on what

781
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 3: happens with Lamar, might even go higher than that. I

782
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 3: think Baltimore quos plus nine against green Bay last week

783
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: after sitting at you know, anywhere from four to six

784
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 3: for most of the week. But on paper these teams

785
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: are fairly even. Baltimore sixteenth in overall DVO, Cincinnati nineteen.

786
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 3: This is a big revenge spot for the Ravens, who

787
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 3: gave up forty one in a blowout loss as favorites

788
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 3: to Cincinnati.

789
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 1: At home earlier in the year.

790
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 3: And you know, I faded Cincinnati prior to last week.

791
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 3: I had faded them three weeks in a row, went

792
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 3: to and one. Then I backed them last week and

793
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 3: won that, so they've been treating me pretty well. Three

794
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 3: and one over the last four weeks. Betting on or

795
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 3: against Cincinnati, I'm going against them here.

796
00:37:58,080 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 1: That's because they're inconsistent.

797
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 3: You know, even with that cover and win last week,

798
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,439
Speaker 3: they scored on with fifteen points. Their offense didn't play

799
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,919
Speaker 3: nearly as well against the defense that plays predominantly man

800
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 3: coverage as I thought they would.

801
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 1: Denver did mix in more zone.

802
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 3: I expect Baltimore to do a little bit more the

803
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 3: same just because it worked.

804
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 1: So it worked well for Denver last week, same kind

805
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: of team here.

806
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 3: I just don't know if I can trust this Bengal

807
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 3: offense now to do this the second time what they

808
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 3: did in the first game. After you know, Baltimore now

809
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,399
Speaker 3: you know, kind of saw what they had saw where

810
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 3: they went wrong forty one points Jamar Chase. They just

811
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 3: let them go nuts. Obviously it's not easy to cover Chase,

812
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 3: but what do you have? One catch last week? So

813
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 3: he's been kind of down more than up since since

814
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 3: that big game. I think the advantages in terms of

815
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 3: adjustments go to Baltimore here. I think that you know

816
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 3: the desperation now, you know you mentioned a couple of

817
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 3: weeks ago you were fading Baltimore kind of fat and happy. Well,

818
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 3: now they've they've lost a bunch of heartbreaking games, so

819
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 3: now they're kind of reeling.

820
00:38:58,360 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: They really need this one.

821
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is now on top of the division, so Baltimore

822
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 3: really needed this one for the tie breaker. I expected

823
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 3: desperate effort from Baltimore. Cincinnati just nineteen points per game

824
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 3: in their last three games. And I've mentioned this before,

825
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 3: which is why I was kind of selling on Cincinnati

826
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 3: kind of around that midseason point, and on two point

827
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 3: seven points on average below we average.

828
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 1: In terms of the schedule they had faced, that is

829
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: the highest.

830
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: In the league by nearly a full point, which means,

831
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 3: according to adjusted strength to schedule, they have had the

832
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:38,439
Speaker 3: easiest schedule by nearly a full point per game over

833
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 3: the next lowest team. So, you know, Cincinnati, I think

834
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 3: that you know, they're on top of the division. They

835
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 3: finally got to win after a couple of games where people,

836
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: I think expected them to play better than they actually did.

837
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 3: But I just don't trust them against a desperate Baltimore team.

838
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: I think, even if Huntley plays, I really like what

839
00:39:58,239 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: I saw out of him, and I don't know. I

840
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 3: want to get your opinion on this stuck obviously you

841
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:05,879
Speaker 3: know the Ravens better than anyone, but uh, I want

842
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 3: to I just wanted to kind of get your opinion on,

843
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 3: like do you think like it's Huntly just adjusting better

844
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 3: to like the schemes that defenses are thrown at the

845
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 3: Ravens than the Jackson was, because it seemed like teams

846
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 3: are going to like these cover zero kind of looks

847
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: where you know, they would rush all out of send

848
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: them out of rushers at Jackson and they would kind

849
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: of use like these man zone match techniques in the

850
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 3: back end, not like a true cover zero, but you know,

851
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: kind of take the inside outside. You know, have three

852
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 3: or four defenders defending their receivers, you know, force the

853
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 3: you know, if the backs are gonna tight ends are

854
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 3: going to stay in, they bring that rusher or they

855
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 3: just kind of so they just kind of waste an

856
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 3: extra pass protector. Like it just seemed like Jackson wasn't

857
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 3: picking that up and Huntley he just looks a little

858
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 3: more decisive out there. I don't know, I don't know

859
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 3: if that's just like small sample or what, but I

860
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 3: feel good about it. But most of all, I love

861
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 3: hardball in these spots, regardless of who's got a quarterback

862
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 3: in his career, thirty sixty against the spread as a

863
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 3: road dog and divisional road games from week ten on

864
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 3: excluding the last week of the season when some not

865
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 3: always everyone playing for the same thing. But week ten

866
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 3: on divisional road games twelve one and two against the

867
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 3: spread ninety two percent. The only loss against the spread

868
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 3: was that game against the Steelers, and uh, I believe

869
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:26,399
Speaker 3: we were both on the me again in that game.

870
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 3: So really like the really like the spot for the Ravens,

871
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 3: but really curious to hear your thoughts on exactly you know,

872
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 3: what's going on with like Huntley versus Jackson, because it

873
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 3: just hasn't felt like as much of a drop off

874
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 3: as you'd expect.

875
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: No. I mean, Huddly undrafted looks great and he was

876
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 2: really good at Utah. I was surprised he didn't get drafted,

877
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: but he and by the way, Lamar Jackson's considered day

878
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 2: to day. So we'll see. If the Ravens lose this game,

879
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 2: it's not the end of their season. They don't have

880
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 2: to win out. I mean they have to beat the

881
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 2: Rams and then the Steelers at home to close out

882
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 2: the year. So I don't know it's not easy. No,

883
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 2: it's not easy. But if he's not fully healthy, they

884
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: might think that they can try to win with Huntley.

885
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 2: It's not like it's a winner go home. And the

886
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 2: Mars nine and one against spread as a underdog for

887
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 2: what it's worth, seven and three outright, and the Ravens

888
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 2: are eleven and one against the spread in the last

889
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 2: twelve in December. But Humbley's just at teams. I look,

890
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 2: he had he played against the Browns from twenty one

891
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 2: down when the Browns are playing really soft, and then

892
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: last week he was you know, he played extremely well

893
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 2: two touch two Russian touchdown two pass and Lamar Jackson

894
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: has never done that in his career in the game.

895
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: But the Packers were trying to go guard cover Mark

896
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 2: Andrews with Savage one of them, which is pretty funny.

897
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 2: Seams are still trying to like they don't have a

898
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 2: lot of tape on him right, so that he has

899
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 2: different tendencies and they're running different stuff and he has

900
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: that like newness factor, but he's also just going with

901
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 2: the read and firing it and looking for Andrews a lot,

902
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 2: which is smart. He has the eighth fastest time to

903
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,280
Speaker 2: throw of all qualified quarterbacks this year, and the Mars

904
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 2: at the fifth slowest, so and then La March I

905
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 2: don't know if he was a little hurt or he

906
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: was just getting indecisive with all the different looks that

907
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 2: he was getting. So the offense looks like it's it's

908
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 2: it's it's functioning even better right now with Huntley under center.

909
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 2: But there are a couple of things I do not

910
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 2: like about this game. One I do like Mark Anders

911
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 2: have a huge, huge game. Gather's on IR they said,

912
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 2: Logan Wilson's not gonna play. You can eat over the

913
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: middle of the field against the Bengals, especially with Wilson out,

914
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 2: So I do love that, But I just don't know

915
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:31,879
Speaker 2: the corners for the Bengals have been great for whatever reason.

916
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 2: The Woozia I think it's gonna be back. Hilton and

917
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 2: Apple all top fifteen in coverage grades since Week nine.

918
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 2: I do think that defense is a bit overrated overall.

919
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 2: But the one thing that scares me is this Raven's defense.

920
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 2: I don't know how they're gonna get any stops. I

921
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 2: don't know who's playing corner, I don't know who's playing

922
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,800
Speaker 2: on the defensive line. Brandon Williams Campbell, but their corners

923
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,800
Speaker 2: Humphrey's on IR, Peters is on IR. You got Averett

924
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,399
Speaker 2: if they air was playing, it's not great. Tevon Young

925
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: cussion protocol, Jimmy Smith is still out on kacutrion protocol.

926
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 2: Westera questionable. You got Robert Jackson and Kevin Seymour. These

927
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 2: are like ninth and tenth string guys that you were

928
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 2: playing last week. So it's really tough, especially when you

929
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 2: consider Joe Burrow, who ripped them up the first time

930
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 2: they played, is number one in the NFL against van coverage,

931
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,839
Speaker 2: number one in the NFL against the blitz. And that's

932
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 2: what the Ravens want to do to generate pressures. They

933
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: want to blitz and they want to play man. And

934
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: I don't know how they can cover all of these

935
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:30,240
Speaker 2: Bengals receivers, So I would need three here. And then

936
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 2: obviously I have to assume that Jackson is better than Huntley,

937
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: although you could argue that the offense is operating, but

938
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 2: it's a very small sample sized and favorable situations. Remember

939
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 2: they're now two. They were down two possessions in you know,

940
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter of both games. But that's what scares me.

941
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 2: I don't know how the Ravens defense is going to

942
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 2: get stops. I don't hate the under, I mean, I

943
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: don't hate the over as a result.

944
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: You know, Like I'm begging at a couple of things.

945
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: Number One is huntly even if it is in these

946
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 3: situations where they're just coming from behind, Like I don't

947
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 3: expect a blowout, is what I'm saying.

948
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 1: Like, I don't expect the Bengals to just run away

949
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 1: with it.

950
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 3: But even if they, you know, if you need a

951
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 3: back door here, maybe the Ravens are down ten, you know,

952
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 3: that obviously would be better for the three. That's which

953
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 3: is why I'm hoping to get it. But I'll still go.

954
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 3: I think the Ravens have a good chance to win

955
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 3: this game. But Zach Taylor, that's what's really held the

956
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 3: Bengals offense back at times, because yeah, Burrow has been

957
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 3: efficient and had big numbers all year, and yet their offense,

958
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 3: like I said, just under twenty points per game over

959
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:31,479
Speaker 3: their last three. You know, it's it's just Jamar Chase

960
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 3: really hasn't you know, blown up since that Ravens game.

961
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 3: And I just think it's adjustment advantage Ravens and more

962
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 3: desperate team Ravens. Obviously, I'm not gonna make it sit

963
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 3: here and make a case of the Ravens defense. They usually,

964
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 3: you know, to find a way, but it's not a

965
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 3: good defense. I think it's yeah, bottom six, twenty seventh in.

966
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:50,959
Speaker 2: The league and dv a way.

967
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 3: That's not how the Ravens are gonna are gonna win

968
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 3: this game. It's gonna be mistakes.

969
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 1: By the Bengals.

970
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 3: But the Bengals have been one of those mistake prone teams,

971
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 3: and that's part of the issues. Say that stuff kind

972
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 3: of regresses, but it's fourteen games into the season. Joe

973
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 3: Burrow tied for the league leading interceptions with fourteen, weaves

974
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 3: the league in sacks taken with forty four. That's how

975
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 3: you're gonna keep the Ravens in a game and potentially

976
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 3: even voters game, despite the fact that, yeah, you obviously

977
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 3: have some weapons on the outside. That's true every week

978
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: for the Bengals. I mean, I think Higgins only me

979
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 3: missed what like one one or two games. Chases it

980
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 3: missed any games. Boyd hasn't missed any games. Ysolma hasn't

981
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 3: missed any games. Mixing, I think is what mixed one

982
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 3: game like it's they've had. They've had their guys oh year,

983
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,959
Speaker 3: so it's just been a mistakes have been an issue

984
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 3: for them.

985
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 2: This is the worst secondary in the league right now,

986
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 2: but just from a personnel perspective, their safeties are all

987
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 2: out too. But I'll be rooting for you. I don't

988
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: know if I'm gonna be I went three, I'll probably

989
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: don't have teas here. I think it's a good teas

990
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 2: piece from two and a half up to eight and

991
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,919
Speaker 2: a half, all right. For my third pick of the

992
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack and the sixth overall, I am going

993
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 2: with the c Eveland Browns plus seven and a half

994
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 2: at bet MGM. It's not something I love doing fading

995
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau and he's been pretty much automatic

996
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 2: against the spread this year. But I think this line

997
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 2: is too high. I make it closer to five. And

998
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 2: if you look at some of the Browns results, like

999
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 2: so many fluky losses like PI against the Chargers, the

1000
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: Botch punt against the Chiefs. You know, there's that Ravens game,

1001
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: but there's a lot of games that they could have won.

1002
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 2: This is a much better team I think overall than

1003
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 2: seven siden They just have a COVID game, They've had

1004
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: weather games, They've had a lot of injuries, their quarterback,

1005
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 2: running backs. I think that they are going to get

1006
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 2: most of their offense back here. They won't have Hunt,

1007
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 2: but looks like everyone should test out on offense and

1008
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 2: on defense. The biggest question is Miles Garrett with his groin,

1009
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 2: and then Clowney because mckimley's out for the year. So

1010
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 2: that's so big, but I'm assuming, I think Garrett's going

1011
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 2: to give it a go. Clown It's gonna come down

1012
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 2: to testing, and I don't know, but it's big because

1013
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,280
Speaker 2: Rodgers under pressure this year twenty ninth and adjusted completion

1014
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 2: percentage twenty eighth, in yards per ten, seven big time throws,

1015
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:13,760
Speaker 2: six turnover worthy throws, sixty one quarterback rating that's twenty

1016
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 2: third when he's cleaned, twenty four touchdowns, one interception, one

1017
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three quarterback rating. It's not even close.

1018
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:21,879
Speaker 2: No one's even close to him. So that's a big

1019
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 2: thing here. But the Packers have injuries of their own.

1020
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,839
Speaker 2: I mean, Billy Turner's hurt. You have you know, Bac

1021
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 2: Tiari is not playing. Jenkins, Josh Myers your center. You

1022
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 2: basically only have one of your original starters on the

1023
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: offensive line, and I think that this is a decent

1024
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,439
Speaker 2: matchup for the Browns. Just go in there, run the ball.

1025
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 2: December game going against a run D that's twenty fifth

1026
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 2: in the league against the run dboa Kenny Clark's on

1027
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 2: COVID list, a vout, as Scantling's on the COVID list

1028
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,280
Speaker 2: as well. Brown's went out. They go to the playoffs,

1029
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 2: you'll get a desperate effort here. I think this line

1030
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 2: is too high based on what we saw last week.

1031
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:59,879
Speaker 2: I know it's a short week they're going to Lambeau,

1032
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 2: but I think that this is too many points over

1033
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 2: a touchdown. This backers teams were getting pretty fortunate in

1034
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 2: a number of different departments, and in these close games.

1035
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 2: I think the Browns can keep this within a touchdown.

1036
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 2: And if you get like Garrett and Clowney both play,

1037
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 2: I could see the Browns winning this game out right.

1038
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: So I just think there's some value in this number

1039
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 2: over a touchdown. So give me the Brownies.

1040
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is another one that I'm kind of I'm

1041
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: not really on this one. I'd rather choose the pack down.

1042
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 3: I just I feel Like the issue with the Packers

1043
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 3: last week against the Ravens was well, number one, they

1044
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 3: were on the road. They never play as good on

1045
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 3: the road as in Lambeau. But number two, you know

1046
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 3: their issues in past defense. They seem to be overachieving,

1047
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: oh year in past defense. You've kind of pointed it out.

1048
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 3: I don't know how their nineteens in Dvoa, which doesn't

1049
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 3: look great, but I mean they could easily be like

1050
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 3: twenty fifth to thirtieth given some of the injuries they've had,

1051
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:57,240
Speaker 3: But they just didn't seem to want to keep containing

1052
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 3: on Huntley and Mayfield's not a scrambling now, this is

1053
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 3: not a pressure spot for Mayfield. Necessarily, the Packers an'

1054
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 3: gonna get a ton of pressure. But I just worry

1055
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 3: about this Brown's defense get like if they get behind,

1056
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 3: they're twenty third against the pass.

1057
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 1: Like, if they get behind, I don't know if they

1058
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 1: can keep it close here.

1059
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 3: So I radic tease the pack down, just kind of

1060
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 3: enjoy the Rogers at Lambeau trends that hit above sixty percent.

1061
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 3: But I'll root for you on this one. You root

1062
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 3: for me on Baltimore and hopefully we go six and

1063
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 3: zho on the spot. Damn almost got it. If I

1064
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:30,839
Speaker 3: hadn't bet against you asked weef, you would have had it.

1065
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: That's my of course.

1066
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 3: So that's gonna wrap it up for our week sixteen

1067
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 3: Weekends six pack presented by our friends at the Athletic

1068
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 3: Brewing Company.

1069
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 1: To recap Stuck is.

1070
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:47,319
Speaker 3: Going with Arizona minus one against the Coats, Carolina plus ten,

1071
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 3: and Cleveland plus seven and a half. I'm going with

1072
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:54,719
Speaker 3: Minnesota plus three, Vegas minus one and a half, and

1073
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 3: Baltimore plus two and a half. So that concludes our

1074
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 3: six pack percenter by Athletic Brewing Company, whose innovative processes

1075
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 3: allow them to brew great tasting craft beer without the alcohol.

1076
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,640
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1079
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1081
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1082
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1083
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00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,120
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1086
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1087
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 1: That's act Ion one zero. Cheers All right, stuck. Now

1088
00:51:55,560 --> 00:52:00,760
Speaker 1: it's time for the week sixteen coaches. Peptok how sick.

1089
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 2: I'm watching you guys play. Just how bad can it get?

1090
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 3: This week's coach is pep Talk comes to us from

1091
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 3: Chevy Chase in the holiday classic National Lampoons Christmas Vacation,

1092
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 3: and we are dedicating it too.

1093
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 1: Gotta do it one more time.

1094
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 3: Good luck, good riddance, Probably a permanent Christmas vacation from

1095
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 3: the NFL, barring something unforeseen for Urban Meyer, but got

1096
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 3: it dedicated to him one more time, Got my JAG's

1097
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 3: gear on, got my Mark Brunell.

1098
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: You'll see why in a little bit. But Urban miaas

1099
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 1: once for you.

1100
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 4: Hey, any of you are looking for any blast minute

1101
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 4: gift ideas for me, I have one.

1102
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 2: I like my boss right here tonight.

1103
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 4: I want him brought from his happy holiday slumber over

1104
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 4: there with all the other rich people, and I want

1105
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 4: Tom brought right here with a big ribbon on his

1106
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,399
Speaker 4: head and I want to look him straight in the eye.

1107
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 4: I don't want to tell him what a cheap lye

1108
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 4: no good rotten for flushing, low life snake looking, dirt

1109
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 4: eating and bread over stuffed, ignorant but fucking dog kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless,

1110
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 4: fat ass, bug eyed stiff lake. It's funny lip wear

1111
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 4: them headed sack of monkey shit he is he Hey loja,

1112
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 4: holy shit?

1113
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:18,319
Speaker 2: Where's the title of all? All right?

1114
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:20,879
Speaker 1: That was getting to our favorite total a a week

1115
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: so you got for the total.

1116
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Chief Steelers under forty four

1117
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 2: and a half at bet MGM. It's Look, there's a

1118
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 2: lot of questions with the Chiefs here, like Kelsey Tyreek Hill.

1119
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 2: They're on the COVID list, Butcker's out. He won't be

1120
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 2: playing their kicker, which could be big for some of

1121
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 2: these big long kicks for the Chiefs. But the Chiefs offense,

1122
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 2: there's still issues with it, like and when I look

1123
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 2: at when I watch it, when I look at some

1124
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,359
Speaker 2: of the metrics, look at you know the past ten

1125
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 2: games from Mahomes two against the Raiders, seven touchdowns, no picks,

1126
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: nine yards per attempt, seventy four percent completion percente the

1127
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:54,200
Speaker 2: other eight nine touchdowns, nine picks, six and a half

1128
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 2: yards perttempt sixty one percent completion percentage. He's twenty fourth

1129
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:02,800
Speaker 2: in completion percentage over expectation and thirteenth in adjusted EPA

1130
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 2: for play since Week five. So, I mean, it's just

1131
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:08,280
Speaker 2: the offense is something often you might not have Kelsey,

1132
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 2: you might not have Hill. The Steelers pass defense has

1133
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 2: been pretty good this year. They can generate pressure, they

1134
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 2: can sit their safeties back, they can let the Chiefs

1135
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 2: carve them up in the run. That's been their primary weakness. Fine,

1136
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 2: take the ball to Mahomes' his hands. I think that

1137
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 2: Chris Jones will be back in the middle where the

1138
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 2: Chiefs defense. The Steelers offense is horrendous. They can't move

1139
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 2: the ball under. This is a ra Tomlin spot. You know,

1140
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 2: it's a dog, it's you know, for their season against

1141
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:35,759
Speaker 2: a team with a winning record. The Unders are usually

1142
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 2: good in that spot as well.

1143
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 3: What a raw ron Mike Tomlin spot.

1144
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 2: I saw a couple of y'all.

1145
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 1: Blinking though for real, No, no.

1146
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 2: Well, I'll talk to you about it. So I think

1147
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 2: this is a lower scoring game, and so give me

1148
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:55,800
Speaker 2: the under in Chiefs Steelers.

1149
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I might be looking to join you here.

1150
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 3: I've been looking at the Chiefs and and their offense,

1151
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,359
Speaker 3: and it's like when they're not playing the Raiders, it's

1152
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 3: been it's been a struggle.

1153
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 1: I think their defense is getting a lot better.

1154
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 2: So he got hat him back last week for Pitt.

1155
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 2: That's big.

1156
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 3: Also, I mean that what was it was it hated

1157
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 3: on that interception where he just kind.

1158
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 2: Of flew Yeah, and he had that tackle at the

1159
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 2: end of the game.

1160
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, gee, that was I was.

1161
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 3: I was hyped after that because I was on I

1162
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 3: was with you on the uh on the Steelers, So

1163
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 3: that was that was good because that was the only

1164
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:25,919
Speaker 3: way that we're gonna win that game.

1165
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:27,399
Speaker 1: Like plays like that.

1166
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,200
Speaker 2: So Bit, we will not go gently. We're gonna unleash

1167
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 2: he out here in December.

1168
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,840
Speaker 3: We're gonna go into tag mode because we have to,

1169
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 3: because that's what's required.

1170
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 1: For my total.

1171
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 3: I am going with the Texans Chargers under forty six

1172
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 3: and a half at bet MGM.

1173
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 1: I think this line is too high. This time might

1174
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 1: be too high even if everyone plays.

1175
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: But this is kind of a speculative, you know, lock

1176
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,520
Speaker 3: in here because again, I think this time of year,

1177
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 3: especially with all the potential COVID news, I think it's

1178
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 3: more likely that it affects the offense. Offensive players, especially

1179
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 3: the quarter, tend to be worth a little more, you know,

1180
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 3: outside of top pass rushers to the spread. But Austin

1181
00:56:06,160 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 3: Ekwer goes on the COVID list, that's obviously huge. Even

1182
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:12,440
Speaker 3: though Jackson played well last week, Jalen Geiton goes on

1183
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:14,880
Speaker 3: the COVID list, So we don't know what else is

1184
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 3: gonna happen with this Charger offense. I mean you have

1185
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 3: a running back and a receiver obviously Geiten going on.

1186
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 3: You know, Allen's been on it. You know, if he

1187
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 3: tests out again or Williams, that's big. Then you have

1188
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,680
Speaker 3: both of these defenses are better in pass defense, which

1189
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 3: you know, when I'm betting an under, I always take

1190
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 3: the defenses that are better in pass defenses and worth

1191
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 3: the worst run defense. And like a lot of people

1192
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:41,800
Speaker 3: may not realize this about Houston, but they're pretty decent

1193
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 3: defense against the pass. There's seventeenth overall in DVOA, tenth

1194
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 3: against the pass, top ten in the league against the pass.

1195
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 3: On defense, the Chargers are twelve, So you have two

1196
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 3: top twelve pass defenses in this game. And then the

1197
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:59,760
Speaker 3: Chargers major issue all year has been the run on defense.

1198
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:02,880
Speaker 3: To run it, yeah, thirty first, the Texans.

1199
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 1: Cannot run it.

1200
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 3: I mean, you talk about breaking models. I have to

1201
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 3: go in every week and manually lower every Texans running

1202
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 3: back to like two point nine yards per carry, because

1203
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:12,759
Speaker 3: that's essentially what they do this year.

1204
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: It's like, I'll read it off right now. Here are

1205
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 1: the Texans running backs.

1206
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 3: Mark Ingram he had ninety two carries with the team

1207
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 3: three point two yards of carry.

1208
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 1: He's not there anymore.

1209
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 3: Rex Burkhead seventy two carries two point nine yards per carry,

1210
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 3: David Johnson sixty two carries three point two yards per carry.

1211
00:57:30,080 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 3: Philip Wendsley had fifty at two point six, Freeman seventeen

1212
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 3: He's gonna be a third back for this game. Seventeen

1213
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 3: carries thirty three yards one point nine yards per carry.

1214
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 3: And that's and then Davis Mills has twelve carries for

1215
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 3: twenty nine yards on the year.

1216
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 1: So Tyrod Taylor was.

1217
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 3: Your best rusher at nineteen for one to fifty one

1218
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 3: with three touchdowns led the team, and yards per carry

1219
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 3: still eads a team in touchdowns. Here's a crazy stat.

1220
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 3: Here's an absolutely nuts stat. The Texas have had three

1221
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six carries this season. Tyrod Taylor has

1222
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 3: nineteen of depth. Tyrod Taylor still weeds the team in rushing.

1223
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 1: Touchdowns with three.

1224
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 3: He has three times as many as any other Texans player,

1225
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 3: despite having nineteen of their three hundred and thirty six

1226
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 3: carries playing in six of their fourteen games. Like that's

1227
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 3: utterly absurd. I do not think the Texans will be

1228
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 3: able to run the ball here. The Chargers are good

1229
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 3: in pasty, the Chargers may not be healthy on offense.

1230
00:58:24,720 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 3: So the NFL average is forty five.

1231
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:28,200
Speaker 1: Point six points.

1232
00:58:28,240 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 3: In terms of the total, each team is averaging twenty

1233
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 3: two point eight points per game.

1234
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 1: It's the league average.

1235
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 3: So this is one of the few totals on the

1236
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 3: week that's actually above the league average. And I just

1237
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 3: don't think it's warranted given that the Texans are one

1238
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 3: of the teams, and given that the Chargers are going

1239
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 3: through some COVID issues. But I mean, the market's pretty

1240
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 3: sharp in terms of some of these other numbers. You know,

1241
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 3: the Bucks total already down to forty four. The Steelers

1242
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 3: in Chiefs total already down to forty four, the Bills

1243
00:58:56,360 --> 00:59:01,040
Speaker 3: Patriots forty three and a half. You know, Seahawk bears

1244
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 3: down to forty two and a half, Broncos Raiders forty

1245
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 3: one and a half. You know, there's not too many

1246
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 3: of these totals here, you know, vikns Rams are.

1247
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 1: Above it and a couple other ones.

1248
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 3: But you know, this is a pretty efficient totals market

1249
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 3: this week, and this is really one that stands out

1250
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,920
Speaker 3: to me, you know, sitting here at forty six and

1251
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 3: a half at bet MGM.

1252
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 1: So I really like the Chargers Texans under yeah docated.

1253
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 3: So the recap Stucky is going with Chief Steelers under

1254
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 3: forty four and a half and I'm going with Texans

1255
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 3: Chargers under forty six and a half. Now it is

1256
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:36,400
Speaker 3: time for our favorite teaser Week sixteen.

1257
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1258
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 3: Don't don't change, don't tease me please, all right. So

1259
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:55,040
Speaker 3: for those not familiar with teasers, you're essentially getting an

1260
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 3: additional six points to add to a parlay of tour

1261
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 3: more bets. Six points is the standard teasers. You can

1262
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:05,520
Speaker 3: get six and a half or seven or more depending

1263
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 3: on your book, but we do six point teasers here.

1264
01:00:07,720 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 3: Stuck has a lot of great content out about how

1265
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 3: to approach these to get a sustained edge. It's all

1266
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 3: about teasing through key numbers. You can google Stucky and

1267
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 3: teasers for that content where you can search it for

1268
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 3: it at actual network dot com.

1269
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 1: We each do a teaser on the show every week.

1270
01:00:25,120 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 3: It'll count for a point this week, since we're lowering

1271
01:00:27,960 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 3: each of the six pack picks to one point each

1272
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 3: from our first two being two just because of the

1273
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 3: COVID issues. Don't want to unbalanced things. So Stuck, where

1274
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:39,000
Speaker 3: are you going with your teaser for week sixteen?

1275
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the plus one and a

1276
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 2: half right now. Broncos AGM. I'm going to go getting

1277
01:00:45,240 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 2: the Broncos up over seven and talked about this Raiders

1278
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:50,439
Speaker 2: seem they scored over seventeen points once in the past

1279
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 2: seven games. I think this will be a lower scoring

1280
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 2: game and I'm going to tease the Falcons down from

1281
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 2: six to a pick. I don't believe Jared Goff is

1282
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 2: gonna play by the way. Jared Coff the best like

1283
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 2: three weeks have been really good. I hope there were

1284
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 2: some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but letdown

1285
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 2: spot for the lines here. I think the Falcons get

1286
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:08,160
Speaker 2: a tone at home against bad teams. Is what they do,

1287
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 2: beat bad team. So give me the Falcons and the Broncos.

1288
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 1: Don't hate it.

1289
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,840
Speaker 3: I'm gonna stay with my You're picking against one of

1290
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 3: my six pack kicks, and I'm gonna do the same.

1291
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:22,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go Green Bay down to one and a

1292
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:23,920
Speaker 3: half from seven and a half against the Browns.

1293
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 2: Uh.

1294
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 3: Just for some numbers, Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau anytime the

1295
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:32,240
Speaker 3: spread is minus thirteen or west or he's an underdog

1296
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:34,959
Speaker 3: in his career sixty one, twenty seven and three, sixty

1297
01:01:35,040 --> 01:01:37,680
Speaker 3: nine percent against the spread, six and oh this season.

1298
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 3: So I do agree with you that the Packers may

1299
01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 3: be in for some regression. They are getting lucky with

1300
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 3: some of these wins and some of these covers.

1301
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 1: So but I do like them to win this game

1302
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 1: at home. You know.

1303
01:01:49,360 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 3: Rogers against Mayfield is essentially what it comes down to

1304
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:55,960
Speaker 3: for me, and Rogers often against the spread loss also

1305
01:01:56,600 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 3: forty six, three, six seven Rogers against the AFC sixty

1306
01:02:00,360 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 3: one per thirty nineteen and one. So the unfamiliarity tends

1307
01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 3: to help the Pack here in these kind of spots,

1308
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:10,000
Speaker 3: so feel good about getting the Packers under a field goal.

1309
01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 3: Can't believe I had them last week in a tease

1310
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:15,200
Speaker 3: at minus one.

1311
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:17,920
Speaker 1: They just had to cover, and of course they blow that.

1312
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:19,600
Speaker 3: And it might have been better if the Ravens got

1313
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 3: to two, because then you get the field goal and

1314
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 3: they win by two. Perhaps perhaps maybe, But going back

1315
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 3: to the well with the Packers here and then Minnesota

1316
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:31,120
Speaker 3: going plus three to plus nine, already mentioned them in

1317
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:33,880
Speaker 3: the six packs. I'll keep it brief, but one thing

1318
01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 3: I will say. Minnesota has not lost the game by

1319
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 3: more than eight points all year, so plus nine to

1320
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 3: this point would have covered every single week with the Vikes.

1321
01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 1: All right, that's our teaser for this week.

1322
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:53,120
Speaker 3: Stuck going with Denver up from plus one and a

1323
01:02:53,160 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 3: half to plus seven and a half against the Raiders,

1324
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 3: and Atlanta from minus six to a pick against the

1325
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 3: Detroit Lions.

1326
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Packers.

1327
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:04,360
Speaker 3: Seven and a half down to one and a half

1328
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,720
Speaker 3: at home against the Browns and the Vikings plus three

1329
01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 3: to plus nine at home against the Rams. Now it's

1330
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:16,800
Speaker 3: time for our money line underdog parlay.

1331
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:22,919
Speaker 5: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1332
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1333
01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 3: I've been really strong this year with our parlays. Even

1334
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 3: on weeks where we don't hit the parlay, usually at

1335
01:03:34,240 --> 01:03:37,000
Speaker 3: least one of us has hit. So stuck, where are

1336
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:39,200
Speaker 3: you going this week for our parlay?

1337
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:41,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Bills. I like the Bills

1338
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 2: as a teasers, teaser piece, and if we got the three,

1339
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 2: I would play them. I really liked them in the spot,

1340
01:03:45,760 --> 01:03:47,919
Speaker 2: but they got a couple things that concerned me here.

1341
01:03:47,960 --> 01:03:51,600
Speaker 2: I mean, Beasley's on the COVID list, Dion Dawkins, Yeah,

1342
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:56,000
Speaker 2: he's out at Dion Dawkins didn't play last week, and

1343
01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 2: neither did John Feliciano. They were on the COVID list.

1344
01:03:58,120 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 2: John Feliciana was hospitalized dem Dalkins Hospas before That means

1345
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: Spencer Brown had to go to the left side. They

1346
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:06,240
Speaker 2: had to kick Williams out to right tackle. He's better

1347
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 2: at guard, and they just their whole offensive line was

1348
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 2: a mess last week. It's been a problem all year.

1349
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 2: The only time they had all five their offensive line starers,

1350
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 2: we Gainst Tennessee and the Chiefs. They put up thirty

1351
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 2: thirty eight and thirty one in those two games. Their

1352
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,440
Speaker 2: corner depths also really shaky with Trey White, I mean

1353
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 2: Jackson went out last week. They brought in a special teamer,

1354
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 2: so that worries me. Harrison Phillips, by the way, is

1355
01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 2: basically take it over the starting position for Starlow two Leilely,

1356
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:30,840
Speaker 2: which is really interesting. But he's playing well up front.

1357
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 2: And I don't know Josh Allen's foot. Is he fully healthy?

1358
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:36,200
Speaker 2: Can he run? That's a huge part offense. They didn't

1359
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:38,360
Speaker 2: have any design runs last week. Maybe they were saving

1360
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:41,360
Speaker 2: him for this week. Can the Bills run Dey step up?

1361
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:44,400
Speaker 2: You know they might go heavier packages. But Tommy Sweeney,

1362
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 2: the other tight end where they were using as a blocker,

1363
01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:48,919
Speaker 2: he's out for the year now. So there's a couple

1364
01:04:49,000 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 2: questions I now have with the Bills. I think the

1365
01:04:50,840 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 2: Patriots are overrated. I've talked about that. I think the

1366
01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 2: Bills can keep this with the one possession John like

1367
01:04:56,280 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 2: him as a teaser piece. I want to see what

1368
01:04:57,760 --> 01:04:59,760
Speaker 2: happens with their offensive line before I pulled the trigger

1369
01:04:59,800 --> 01:05:01,680
Speaker 2: on a that on them. But I think that there's

1370
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 2: some high upside with the Bills. Have been unlucky on

1371
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 2: offense with penalties, turnovers, just things out of their control.

1372
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 2: The Patriots that are gonna have been pretty lucky and

1373
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:13,520
Speaker 2: things that they can't control. Allen has been so close

1374
01:05:13,560 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 2: with some of these deep shots, and you know fourth

1375
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 2: down that they were eighty percent last year, thirty percent

1376
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 2: this year. They're losing every one possession game this year.

1377
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:25,080
Speaker 2: They're due for some luckier revenge spot. I like this staff.

1378
01:05:25,120 --> 01:05:27,440
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots are a bit overrated. I'll take

1379
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 2: a shot with the Bills here. Should be a good game.

1380
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:31,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean after feeling that first, after feeling that

1381
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 3: last week against you know, the Coats, you know, a

1382
01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:37,040
Speaker 3: little bit of a luster came off the Pats. Obviously

1383
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 3: it's a bounce back spot, but you know, probably would

1384
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 3: have been a little bit of a different game that

1385
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 3: first game around if not for that crazy weather.

1386
01:05:43,400 --> 01:05:44,480
Speaker 1: So can't fault you there.

1387
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:46,480
Speaker 3: I think the Bills, you know, they've they're still one

1388
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:48,160
Speaker 3: of the best teams in the league. I mean, it

1389
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:50,800
Speaker 3: just hasn't looked pretty all the time. But you know,

1390
01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:53,720
Speaker 3: Patriots are I think really good too. But toss up

1391
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:55,919
Speaker 3: game and you're so you're getting you're getting valued there.

1392
01:05:56,320 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 3: I got my Mark Brunell throwback on because for the

1393
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 3: first time all of the twenty twenty one NFL season.

1394
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 3: I am backing the Jags on a bet. I am

1395
01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 3: going with them against the Jets here. You know, it's

1396
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:13,880
Speaker 3: actually a pick them so minus one ten. So not no,

1397
01:06:14,000 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 3: nothing crazy in terms of juicy odds or anything like that,

1398
01:06:16,880 --> 01:06:19,120
Speaker 3: but I think the Jaguars.

1399
01:06:18,720 --> 01:06:19,720
Speaker 1: Can absolutely win this game.

1400
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 3: A lot of people thought, you know, last week would

1401
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:24,000
Speaker 3: be the week, you know, the line moved heavily in

1402
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:27,880
Speaker 3: their favor after urban Meyer got fired. But listen, there's

1403
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 3: a lot more things wrong with the Jags than urban Meyer.

1404
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:35,640
Speaker 3: And this week against the Jets, I think they're about

1405
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 3: a team and that's you know, you had Jets just

1406
01:06:38,080 --> 01:06:41,600
Speaker 3: dealing with some COVID issues. So first of all, Jersey

1407
01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:43,439
Speaker 3: is not a home field advantage, especially for the Jets

1408
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 3: their little brother in that stadium anyway, but never has been.

1409
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 3: If you would go to ESPN this week, you see

1410
01:06:49,440 --> 01:06:53,200
Speaker 3: an article about just the Giants and Jets dysfunction, and

1411
01:06:53,480 --> 01:06:57,320
Speaker 3: I think it's pretty ironic. But yeah, this Jets team

1412
01:06:57,360 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 3: is not very good. Sala the head coach test positive

1413
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 3: for COVID, UH dealing with some COVID issues. Beyond that,

1414
01:07:05,200 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 3: you know, their corner Michael Carter on the COVID list.

1415
01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:10,920
Speaker 3: Elijah Moore has already been placed on on the IR.

1416
01:07:11,040 --> 01:07:12,800
Speaker 3: So they and now they're you know, one of their

1417
01:07:12,800 --> 01:07:17,080
Speaker 3: tight ends Ryan Griffin on IR Uh. This this team

1418
01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:19,160
Speaker 3: is really not gonna have much in terms of throwing

1419
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 3: the ball. The running game is you know, it's okay,

1420
01:07:22,400 --> 01:07:24,919
Speaker 3: hit or miss, not great. The line isn't great. There's

1421
01:07:24,960 --> 01:07:28,080
Speaker 3: really no strong unit on this Jets team.

1422
01:07:28,440 --> 01:07:28,840
Speaker 1: Uh.

1423
01:07:28,880 --> 01:07:31,600
Speaker 3: And so against the Jags, that's this is when you've

1424
01:07:31,600 --> 01:07:34,000
Speaker 3: got back to Jacks. You know, the Texans at West

1425
01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 3: had a like a strong pass defense, which you saw

1426
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 3: Davis Mills have a better game than Trevor Lawrence.

1427
01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:41,680
Speaker 5: Uh.

1428
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 1: Jack Wilson has been really bad.

1429
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 3: You know, he's getting some rushing touchdowns to kind of

1430
01:07:47,160 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 3: bailing him out, but he's been pretty bad all year now.

1431
01:07:49,560 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 3: He's doesn't really have anything to work with the Jags.

1432
01:07:52,320 --> 01:07:53,960
Speaker 3: And then and then the Jags are fourteenth and run

1433
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:56,959
Speaker 3: defense DV away, so they're a little bit above average there.

1434
01:07:57,480 --> 01:07:59,680
Speaker 3: I think that, you know, that's the Jets best hoping

1435
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:02,800
Speaker 3: this game. The Jets are thirty second against the pass

1436
01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:07,360
Speaker 3: on defense, thirty second against the run on defense. So

1437
01:08:08,440 --> 01:08:12,080
Speaker 3: Jaguars have the easier matchup, even though it's two bad teams.

1438
01:08:12,520 --> 01:08:15,000
Speaker 3: And then so all you're really looking at is the

1439
01:08:15,040 --> 01:08:18,120
Speaker 3: home field, which is not really a home field. You look,

1440
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 3: you got problem them Jaguars actually might have the head

1441
01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:23,880
Speaker 3: coach advantage in this game. You know, Sala is not

1442
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 3: able to come back. And yeah, I just think this

1443
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:30,240
Speaker 3: Jets team is one of the few teams that's that's

1444
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:31,560
Speaker 3: probably equally.

1445
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:32,679
Speaker 1: As bad or worse than the Jaguars.

1446
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 3: So coin flip coin flip game for me, slight edge

1447
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:37,080
Speaker 3: to the Jaguars, especially because we don't know what else

1448
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:39,760
Speaker 3: is going to happen with the Jets COVID wise, And

1449
01:08:39,800 --> 01:08:41,400
Speaker 3: I think the Jags are doing a smart thing. They're

1450
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:44,240
Speaker 3: giving James Robinson eighty plus percent of the snaps the

1451
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:45,240
Speaker 3: Jets run defense.

1452
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:47,800
Speaker 1: I mean, if you saw that Miami game, I.

1453
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 3: Feel like Miami came into the game but plans on

1454
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 3: passing it a little bit more, and then it was

1455
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 3: like anyone that handed the ball to it's just seven

1456
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:58,000
Speaker 3: eight yards every time that they just like abandoned the pass.

1457
01:08:58,479 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 3: You know, one, like they pass it once and like

1458
01:09:01,160 --> 01:09:03,720
Speaker 3: two what throws a terrible pick six? But like for

1459
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:05,800
Speaker 3: most of that second half, they would just run it

1460
01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 3: right down the Jets throats. They knew it was coming

1461
01:09:07,800 --> 01:09:11,080
Speaker 3: at a shotgun, couldn't stop it any which way. I

1462
01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 3: think that's how the Jaguars win this game here. That

1463
01:09:13,520 --> 01:09:16,000
Speaker 3: and I think they could stop to run a decent amount.

1464
01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:18,840
Speaker 3: So give me the Jags minus one ten at bet

1465
01:09:18,920 --> 01:09:19,920
Speaker 3: MGM against the.

1466
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:24,600
Speaker 2: Jets could be a steaky over two of these underperforming quarterbacks.

1467
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:28,160
Speaker 2: They both face top five schedule of opposing pass defenses.

1468
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:29,880
Speaker 2: It's just one of those games where it end up

1469
01:09:29,880 --> 01:09:33,320
Speaker 2: being a random shootout. But don't hate it all right.

1470
01:09:33,360 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 3: So that's a three point one x payout. Bet one

1471
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:39,080
Speaker 3: hundred and win four to ten with the parlay of

1472
01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:42,760
Speaker 3: the Bills plus one to fifteen Jags minus one ten.

1473
01:09:45,760 --> 01:09:49,599
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1474
01:09:49,960 --> 01:09:53,000
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01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:49,120
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01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:15,640
Speaker 6: eight eight five three to two thirty five hundred in Virginia.

1501
01:11:15,760 --> 01:11:18,920
Speaker 6: Nuts sink not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening.

1502
01:11:19,160 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 6: Let's get back to the show.

1503
01:11:21,800 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 1: Now.

1504
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:23,640
Speaker 3: It's time for the best of the rest, which are

1505
01:11:23,680 --> 01:11:26,439
Speaker 3: the games that we did not discuss in any other segment.

1506
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:30,880
Speaker 3: First up, Giants at Eagles Eagles ten point favorites. The

1507
01:11:30,920 --> 01:11:34,040
Speaker 3: total forty and a half as we record this on

1508
01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:39,519
Speaker 3: Wednesday evening, sixty five percent of the tickets are on

1509
01:11:39,560 --> 01:11:43,559
Speaker 3: the Giants, but ninety five percent of the money on

1510
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:46,439
Speaker 3: the Eagles, So a little bit of a pros versus

1511
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:48,719
Speaker 3: Joe's in terms of the handle. And then there's also

1512
01:11:48,760 --> 01:11:51,679
Speaker 3: sharp action here on the under These teams played a

1513
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 3: thirteen to seven Giant victory in which the Eagles could

1514
01:11:56,080 --> 01:11:58,920
Speaker 3: have won pretty much on a walk off fashion but

1515
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 3: failed to real and I think it was Ragerfield failed

1516
01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:04,400
Speaker 3: to realin a pass that could have scored for him.

1517
01:12:04,479 --> 01:12:07,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, any thoughts on this one stuck.

1518
01:12:08,040 --> 01:12:10,639
Speaker 2: Giants defense dead last and rush success rate. Since wek

1519
01:12:10,760 --> 01:12:13,799
Speaker 2: ate Eagles offense number two, their offense, their rush offense

1520
01:12:13,880 --> 01:12:17,240
Speaker 2: is rowing. Jake from started with Giants line seems to

1521
01:12:17,240 --> 01:12:22,919
Speaker 2: touch high Eagles on a short week dead but no thanks.

1522
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:26,920
Speaker 2: It's game's gross, all right, Jake from State from who

1523
01:12:27,000 --> 01:12:29,520
Speaker 2: is this? It's Jake from State Farm.

1524
01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:31,920
Speaker 1: Chicago at Seattle.

1525
01:12:32,479 --> 01:12:35,880
Speaker 3: Seattle by six and a half is the line at

1526
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:39,280
Speaker 3: bet MGM with the total at forty three and a half.

1527
01:12:39,720 --> 01:12:42,639
Speaker 3: The public love Seattle here sixty eight percent of the bets,

1528
01:12:42,960 --> 01:12:46,360
Speaker 3: ninety one percent of the dollars on the Hawks. The

1529
01:12:46,479 --> 01:12:50,160
Speaker 3: sharp action that we've tracked back set up sharps around

1530
01:12:50,160 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 3: Seattle as well, so sharps and public on the same side,

1531
01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:57,599
Speaker 3: and then Sharp's also on the under in this one.

1532
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:01,480
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on on seatle in Chicago.

1533
01:13:01,520 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 2: Nope, no thank you. I mean Chicago's just melting down

1534
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:06,519
Speaker 2: last week with penalties where they at mentally there's rumors

1535
01:13:06,560 --> 01:13:09,320
Speaker 2: as people checked out. And Seattle, I mean that was

1536
01:13:09,320 --> 01:13:12,120
Speaker 2: their season last week essentially, and it's a short week,

1537
01:13:12,240 --> 01:13:14,240
Speaker 2: so to they come out flat, I'm not sure Russell

1538
01:13:14,240 --> 01:13:17,120
Speaker 2: Wilson is still right after watching him last week. That

1539
01:13:17,840 --> 01:13:20,000
Speaker 2: just no thank you. I don't want to put a

1540
01:13:20,000 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 2: single dollar in this game.

1541
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 1: Seattle.

1542
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:24,720
Speaker 3: I mean that offense just when you thought they were

1543
01:13:24,760 --> 01:13:28,000
Speaker 3: turning a corner. Remember they got that fake punt against

1544
01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:30,479
Speaker 3: San Francisco, So really it's more like they had twenty

1545
01:13:30,479 --> 01:13:32,640
Speaker 3: three points in that game. Maybe it was just that

1546
01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:35,800
Speaker 3: one game outburst against the Texans where they get to

1547
01:13:35,840 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 3: thirty three. But yeah, odd, odd looking Seattle offense. Maybe

1548
01:13:41,280 --> 01:13:43,040
Speaker 3: they get locked back, but I wouldn't trust them to

1549
01:13:43,080 --> 01:13:44,120
Speaker 3: cover this number.

1550
01:13:44,840 --> 01:13:45,559
Speaker 1: Stay away from me.

1551
01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:47,760
Speaker 3: I think I don't even know if they win this game.

1552
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:53,240
Speaker 3: To be honest, Washington at Dallas. Washington is a ten

1553
01:13:53,280 --> 01:13:56,080
Speaker 3: and a half point underdog on the road. These teams

1554
01:13:56,080 --> 01:13:58,320
Speaker 3: played a couple of weeks ago. It was a twenty

1555
01:13:58,320 --> 01:14:00,519
Speaker 3: seven to twenty Dallas win. To the total at forty

1556
01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 3: seven and a half. Fifty three of the bets on Washington,

1557
01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:08,040
Speaker 3: which is surprising Dallas usually a public team, but only

1558
01:14:08,040 --> 01:14:10,760
Speaker 3: getting forty seven percent of the tickets here. Sixty one

1559
01:14:10,760 --> 01:14:13,280
Speaker 3: percent of the money, however, is on the Cowboys, and

1560
01:14:13,320 --> 01:14:16,800
Speaker 3: we have track sharp action on the Cowboys despite the

1561
01:14:17,080 --> 01:14:18,480
Speaker 3: large spread.

1562
01:14:18,880 --> 01:14:21,200
Speaker 1: Stuck any thoughts on this one, Yeah.

1563
01:14:21,000 --> 01:14:23,840
Speaker 2: You gotta wait to see who's available for Washington. The

1564
01:14:23,960 --> 01:14:25,519
Speaker 2: Cowboys right nowt the are two seed, by the way,

1565
01:14:25,560 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 2: but if they went out they told say they beat

1566
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:32,040
Speaker 2: the Cardinals next week, then then they're gonna be the

1567
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:33,880
Speaker 2: three seed. They'll actually drop out of the three seat

1568
01:14:33,880 --> 01:14:35,640
Speaker 2: because then they'll knock the Cardinals out and then they

1569
01:14:35,680 --> 01:14:38,760
Speaker 2: lost to the Bucks in the head to head. But

1570
01:14:38,800 --> 01:14:41,040
Speaker 2: they actually are winning the three way tiebreaker right now,

1571
01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:44,000
Speaker 2: and the Cowboys still have a shot out a one seed,

1572
01:14:44,080 --> 01:14:45,880
Speaker 2: like if the Bucks lose, they can still get the

1573
01:14:45,880 --> 01:14:47,600
Speaker 2: one seat because they have the best conference records. So

1574
01:14:47,720 --> 01:14:50,000
Speaker 2: the NFC is is pretty fascinating and the forty nine ers.

1575
01:14:50,000 --> 01:14:51,040
Speaker 2: This is a big game for the forty nine ers

1576
01:14:51,080 --> 01:14:53,200
Speaker 2: more night because they lose a lot of the three

1577
01:14:53,200 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 2: way tiber it gets at ten and seven of the

1578
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:57,040
Speaker 2: Eagles get the ten and seven they the Saints. They

1579
01:14:57,080 --> 01:15:00,479
Speaker 2: all win the tiebreakers over San Franca, so it's something

1580
01:15:00,479 --> 01:15:02,920
Speaker 2: to keep in mind. But the Cowboys are interesting. You know,

1581
01:15:03,320 --> 01:15:05,800
Speaker 2: short week for Washington, COVID issues a lot of uncertainty there.

1582
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:08,120
Speaker 2: But dak press got twenty eighth and adjusted EPA per

1583
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:12,920
Speaker 2: play since Week nine, Cowboys offense twenty fourth EPA per

1584
01:15:12,960 --> 01:15:18,160
Speaker 2: play over that stretch, seventeen drops and seventeen pressures in

1585
01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:22,479
Speaker 2: their past seventeen games. You know, when the first six

1586
01:15:22,560 --> 01:15:26,320
Speaker 2: games so it's seventeen drops seventeen pressures allowed in their

1587
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:31,200
Speaker 2: past seven games. Their first six four drops, four pressures allowed.

1588
01:15:31,640 --> 01:15:36,000
Speaker 2: So like there's drops, there's the offensive line has dropped off.

1589
01:15:36,560 --> 01:15:40,280
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott isn't playing as well. His average depth of

1590
01:15:40,320 --> 01:15:42,720
Speaker 2: target is going down. I don't know if the playbook's

1591
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:46,759
Speaker 2: being shortened. Yeah, they had eighteen passes of five yards

1592
01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:49,400
Speaker 2: or fewer last week, with ten being not behind the

1593
01:15:49,439 --> 01:15:51,200
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage. I don't know if they're just holding

1594
01:15:51,240 --> 01:15:54,040
Speaker 2: back in the playbook. Their run game isn't going as

1595
01:15:54,040 --> 01:15:56,160
Speaker 2: well as twenty eighth and russ success rate since Week

1596
01:15:56,240 --> 01:15:59,800
Speaker 2: nine because her Zeke's still Zeke's still getting too many

1597
01:15:59,800 --> 01:16:04,800
Speaker 2: care He's for the season league completely league average at

1598
01:16:04,880 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 2: run rush yards expected over average, and you know, powered

1599
01:16:10,040 --> 01:16:12,439
Speaker 2: his way above that. But he doesn't look healthy either.

1600
01:16:12,520 --> 01:16:14,200
Speaker 2: So there's just a lot of things that's wrong with

1601
01:16:14,240 --> 01:16:18,599
Speaker 2: this offense right now. And the Cowboys have fifteen touchdowns

1602
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:22,200
Speaker 2: over their past seventy five drives. That's twenty seventh in

1603
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:25,280
Speaker 2: the league over that stretch. So, yeah, what's going on

1604
01:16:25,320 --> 01:16:27,120
Speaker 2: with the Cowboys offense? I think some of it is,

1605
01:16:27,160 --> 01:16:30,160
Speaker 2: you know, the offensive line have had moving pieces the

1606
01:16:30,240 --> 01:16:33,519
Speaker 2: play calling has been great. There's drops. Yeah, I think

1607
01:16:33,560 --> 01:16:36,800
Speaker 2: it'll be okay, but it's it's it's an interesting thing

1608
01:16:36,840 --> 01:16:39,080
Speaker 2: to watch. I don't know who's playing for Washington here.

1609
01:16:39,120 --> 01:16:41,080
Speaker 2: I probably have no interest in this game. But I

1610
01:16:41,160 --> 01:16:43,519
Speaker 2: gotta give credit to Dallas defense. They keep playing well

1611
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:46,800
Speaker 2: and showing up. And by the way, I mentioned a

1612
01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:48,680
Speaker 2: lot of man in zone defenses. Like when I think

1613
01:16:48,680 --> 01:16:54,800
Speaker 2: of zone defenses, out of its coaching tree, got Rams, Eagles, Seahawks, Raiders, Packers, Colts, Brown,

1614
01:16:54,840 --> 01:17:02,920
Speaker 2: those teams play a lot of his own demand defenses. Patriots, Dolphinsts, Ravens, Broncos, Chiefs,

1615
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,240
Speaker 2: and the Cowboys are playing a lot of man this

1616
01:17:05,360 --> 01:17:07,840
Speaker 2: year and that's what dan Quinn has evolved. And this

1617
01:17:07,920 --> 01:17:11,000
Speaker 2: defense is, I mean, it's incredible. If you look at

1618
01:17:11,200 --> 01:17:13,559
Speaker 2: some of the stats of Michael Parsons and the amount

1619
01:17:13,600 --> 01:17:16,040
Speaker 2: of pressures he's generating and he's not even blitzing on

1620
01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:18,920
Speaker 2: most downs, I mean it is, Uh, it's stunning. I

1621
01:17:18,960 --> 01:17:21,559
Speaker 2: gotta give a lot of credit to the Dallas defense

1622
01:17:21,600 --> 01:17:25,479
Speaker 2: and their punter Anger has been incredible. But uh yeah,

1623
01:17:25,479 --> 01:17:26,920
Speaker 2: I want to see the fay. They're gonna win all

1624
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:29,200
Speaker 2: they need this offense to break out of its funk,

1625
01:17:29,280 --> 01:17:30,160
Speaker 2: but nothing there for me.

1626
01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:33,600
Speaker 1: I think part of it is since week.

1627
01:17:34,920 --> 01:17:39,160
Speaker 3: Five, So starting in week six, they've gotten two full

1628
01:17:39,200 --> 01:17:42,280
Speaker 3: games out a Tyron Smith like he's been he's played

1629
01:17:42,400 --> 01:17:44,679
Speaker 3: fewer than one hundred percent of snaps in three others

1630
01:17:45,200 --> 01:17:47,599
Speaker 3: and then he's missed the other the remaining games over

1631
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:49,519
Speaker 3: that stretch, so that that that's a big part of it,

1632
01:17:49,560 --> 01:17:51,800
Speaker 3: because we I mean, I still remember I think it

1633
01:17:51,840 --> 01:17:55,080
Speaker 3: was maybe two three years ago the Cowboys were favorites

1634
01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:58,760
Speaker 3: against the Falcons in a game and their whole game

1635
01:17:58,880 --> 01:18:01,800
Speaker 3: just got wrecked by who, I forget who it was,

1636
01:18:01,840 --> 01:18:04,240
Speaker 3: just had like the day of his life, like like

1637
01:18:04,360 --> 01:18:05,680
Speaker 3: four sacks or something like that.

1638
01:18:05,720 --> 01:18:07,720
Speaker 1: But Tyron Smith was out. Was the upshot of that.

1639
01:18:08,120 --> 01:18:10,280
Speaker 3: You're kind of seeing that that offense is never quite

1640
01:18:10,360 --> 01:18:12,800
Speaker 3: right when he's out of lineup, run or pass. So

1641
01:18:13,880 --> 01:18:16,320
Speaker 3: I'm sure that's part of stay away from me here.

1642
01:18:16,400 --> 01:18:20,200
Speaker 3: Division game just played a couple of weeks ago. Washington

1643
01:18:20,200 --> 01:18:21,680
Speaker 3: got lucky with a pick six. But I have no

1644
01:18:21,760 --> 01:18:25,599
Speaker 3: idea how healthy they're going to be heading into into

1645
01:18:25,640 --> 01:18:26,120
Speaker 3: this one.

1646
01:18:26,479 --> 01:18:28,559
Speaker 1: All right, let's do.

1647
01:18:28,680 --> 01:18:30,840
Speaker 3: The survivor who'll pick it a week real quick, and

1648
01:18:30,880 --> 01:18:31,559
Speaker 3: then we'll get out of.

1649
01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:33,200
Speaker 1: Here the.

1650
01:18:38,240 --> 01:18:40,559
Speaker 5: Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1651
01:18:41,960 --> 01:18:44,040
Speaker 3: All right, stuck Obviously we both got knocked out in

1652
01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:48,120
Speaker 3: week twelve with Dallas, me with Houston. But if for

1653
01:18:48,120 --> 01:18:51,080
Speaker 3: anyone who's still alive, first of all, congratuations. Who's your

1654
01:18:51,120 --> 01:18:52,080
Speaker 3: top pick for this week?

1655
01:18:52,280 --> 01:18:54,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you haven't used the Chargers, like, the Chargers

1656
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:58,880
Speaker 2: are safe here and if not, then my original plan

1657
01:18:59,280 --> 01:19:02,559
Speaker 2: was I was gonna go with the Seahawks this week.

1658
01:19:02,720 --> 01:19:04,439
Speaker 2: It's a lot riskier now, so I think they're dead.

1659
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:06,680
Speaker 2: So if you haven't used the Chargers, I would use them.

1660
01:19:06,720 --> 01:19:09,200
Speaker 2: If not, I think the Seahawks among the teams that

1661
01:19:09,479 --> 01:19:11,080
Speaker 2: you might not have used so far.

1662
01:19:11,600 --> 01:19:14,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, even with the advice, if you're so alive,

1663
01:19:15,520 --> 01:19:18,840
Speaker 3: even with the COVID issues, Yeah, I feel decently about

1664
01:19:18,880 --> 01:19:23,000
Speaker 3: using the Chargers. Bucks feel a little bit scary, just

1665
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:26,040
Speaker 3: because all the cluster injuries and you know, going on

1666
01:19:26,080 --> 01:19:27,840
Speaker 3: a road in a division game. We've seen a lot

1667
01:19:27,880 --> 01:19:30,040
Speaker 3: of these kind of wet downs at this time of year,

1668
01:19:30,120 --> 01:19:34,240
Speaker 3: so Chargers probably make the most sense if you have them.

1669
01:19:34,600 --> 01:19:36,559
Speaker 3: All right, that's gonna do it for our Week sixteen

1670
01:19:36,840 --> 01:19:39,880
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. As a reminder, you can follow all

1671
01:19:39,880 --> 01:19:42,479
Speaker 3: of our picks on the award winning Action Network app.

1672
01:19:42,720 --> 01:19:46,200
Speaker 3: Just search Sunday six Pack in the apps follow feature.

1673
01:19:46,640 --> 01:19:50,800
Speaker 3: You can follow Stuck on Twitter at Stucky two. You

1674
01:19:50,880 --> 01:19:53,320
Speaker 3: can follow me at Chris Raybond. You can find us

1675
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:57,080
Speaker 3: at those same handles in the Action Network app.

1676
01:19:57,160 --> 01:19:58,120
Speaker 1: Be sure to check out.

1677
01:19:58,000 --> 01:20:03,040
Speaker 3: Actionnetwork dot com for our betting content and write ups.

1678
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:05,639
Speaker 3: Stuck and I will be doing Sunday Night Football, Monday

1679
01:20:05,680 --> 01:20:08,280
Speaker 3: Night Football write ups, and then Walk too be doing

1680
01:20:08,960 --> 01:20:10,639
Speaker 3: the Christmas Day right ups to be on the lookout

1681
01:20:10,640 --> 01:20:12,960
Speaker 3: for those. You can also find our fantasy football content

1682
01:20:13,080 --> 01:20:16,200
Speaker 3: at actionnetwork dot com and our DFS content tools models

1683
01:20:16,520 --> 01:20:20,520
Speaker 3: at Fantasy Labs dot com. Best of luck, Merry Christmas,

1684
01:20:20,720 --> 01:20:23,920
Speaker 3: Happy holidays to you and yours. We're really grateful for

1685
01:20:23,920 --> 01:20:27,160
Speaker 3: you guys for listening all season long, and we'll see

1686
01:20:27,200 --> 01:20:27,800
Speaker 3: you next time.

1687
01:20:28,240 --> 01:20:31,080
Speaker 1: Be safe out there. Let's give this money.

1688
01:20:31,880 --> 01:20:36,360
Speaker 2: Let go grinding on prask.

1689
01:20:38,439 --> 01:20:40,760
Speaker 1: Wy mo control.

1690
01:20:44,320 --> 01:20:44,799
Speaker 6: Forgiven.

1691
01:20:47,200 --> 01:20:48,720
Speaker 2: What's about you on a.

1692
01:20:52,640 --> 01:20:55,479
Speaker 1: Coase on chance? Can't clean my call?

1693
01:20:56,800 --> 01:21:01,599
Speaker 2: Why I'm time all with you? Bring me? Don't bring

1694
01:21:01,640 --> 01:21:02,600
Speaker 2: me on Christmas?

1695
01:21:04,720 --> 01:21:06,240
Speaker 1: Why I'm backin it for

1696
01:21:08,920 --> 01:21:09,320
Speaker 2: Mm hmm