1
00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:02,840
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

2
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:11,360
Speaker 2: Ju us proud read enough there were running again, so

3
00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:18,680
Speaker 2: smoothe so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all

4
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,080
Speaker 2: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent

5
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,480
Speaker 2: of the time. How shot with that shop with mind?

6
00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:26,680
Speaker 1: Good buddy, and.

7
00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

8
00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:31,360
Speaker 2: the most.

9
00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet.

10
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040
Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

11
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,680
Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

12
00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,440
Speaker 2: The one. It's left too, the wide eyed.

13
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,040
Speaker 1: Drilled bibus.

14
00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,120
Speaker 2: How old earth pick that happens?

15
00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,960
Speaker 1: Hello, your one, Welcome back to Wonderful, the Soccer Vetting

16
00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,760
Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael lap Off,

17
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,880
Speaker 1: and joining me tonight is BJ cunning Hill. Anthony Dubundo

18
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,640
Speaker 1: is well, he's got no power in his house, so

19
00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,120
Speaker 1: he can't join us tonight. All the best to Anthony

20
00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,840
Speaker 1: as he gets that situated. I guess it's lucky that

21
00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,880
Speaker 1: it didn't happen on a night that the Phillies were playing.

22
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:20,640
Speaker 1: Anthony's pulled up the Phillies. But nonetheless, BJ and I

23
00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 1: will be able to have you covered. We'll go through

24
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:29,440
Speaker 1: every Premier League match coming up this weekend we'll touch

25
00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:34,360
Speaker 1: on some Bundesliga La Liga. SIRI give out our three

26
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,960
Speaker 1: leg underdog parlay. I have Anthony's underdog and this one

27
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,920
Speaker 1: comes out to about one hundred and eighty three to one,

28
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,319
Speaker 1: so it's a big one. We'll give out our best

29
00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,000
Speaker 1: bets in the Premier League and then we'll get out

30
00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:48,160
Speaker 1: of here. But before we get this party started, a

31
00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 1: reminder that wonder Goal is presented by bet three six five.

32
00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 1: The bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. It believes

33
00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point,

34
00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,240
Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

35
00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,560
Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

36
00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 1: you sign up today with Code Action and get three

37
00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,840
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when you

38
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,760
Speaker 1: bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment,

39
00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,040
Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At bet three six five, you must

40
00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,760
Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and you must be President

41
00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:22,000
Speaker 1: Susan must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia.

42
00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,639
Speaker 1: And if you or anyone you know has a gambling

43
00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,760
Speaker 1: problem and wants help, please call one eight hundred Gambler

44
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,840
Speaker 1: in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia or one

45
00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:35,280
Speaker 1: eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply.

46
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,680
Speaker 1: All right, BJ only one place to start On Saturday

47
00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,800
Speaker 1: seven three to am kickoff between Everton and Liverpool at

48
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:50,920
Speaker 1: Anfield the Merseyside Derby Liverpool minus three thirty four, the

49
00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:55,600
Speaker 1: Toffees traveling across Stanley Park as a plus seven fifty underdog,

50
00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,520
Speaker 1: and the draw is plus five hundred. All right, I'll

51
00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,639
Speaker 1: turn it over to you quickly, by. I just want

52
00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,600
Speaker 1: to give you a place to jump off from. According

53
00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 1: to OPTA, sure, and I know that strength of schedule

54
00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,519
Speaker 1: is definitely a thing here. But according to our friends

55
00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:15,840
Speaker 1: at OPTA, Everton have more expected points than Liverpool this season.

56
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,840
Speaker 1: Mm hmm so.

57
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,880
Speaker 2: They also they also, Michael, have more expected goals than

58
00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:30,840
Speaker 2: Manchester City and that's not a joke. You can go

59
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,639
Speaker 2: look it up. Yeah, this is uh, this is an

60
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,520
Speaker 2: interesting one, Michael, and I think what's most interesting is

61
00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,160
Speaker 2: what is Sean Deitsch going to do. From a tactical

62
00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,880
Speaker 2: point of view. We've seen Everton this season obviously has

63
00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:49,160
Speaker 2: played the weakest strength of schedule of anybody. Through eight matches.

64
00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 2: They've come up. They've tried to disrupt build up play.

65
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,040
Speaker 2: They've done a great job forcing high turnovers treating those

66
00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:59,840
Speaker 2: transitional opportunities. But and they did with great success against Burnemouth.

67
00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:03,000
Speaker 2: That was a fantastic match right before the international break.

68
00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 2: But are they really going to try and come in

69
00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,960
Speaker 2: high press Liverpool. I don't know if that's the strategy

70
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,320
Speaker 2: that Dyke is gonna go with because we've seen it

71
00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,880
Speaker 2: once so far. Everton has played one top tier team

72
00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,520
Speaker 2: and it's been Arsenal, and that match was very, very

73
00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 2: boring because Sean Diych decided to sit back, go kind

74
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,720
Speaker 2: of back to his old ways. Everton allowed over in

75
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,719
Speaker 2: ninety percent build a completion percentage, eighteen passes per defensive

76
00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,320
Speaker 2: action and five high turnovers in that one. Not a

77
00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 2: typical what we've seen so far from Everton. So I

78
00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 2: question if Dytch is going to go back to his

79
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 2: old ways four or five to one mid block and

80
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,440
Speaker 2: kind of just sit back a little deeper than what

81
00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,680
Speaker 2: he has been doing so far. But with that being said,

82
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,520
Speaker 2: Liverpool is a much much different team than Arsenal. Arsenal's

83
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:50,800
Speaker 2: slow build up control, possession control pace. Liverpool is high intensity,

84
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,679
Speaker 2: quick transitions and trying to get the ball moving forward

85
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 2: as fast as possible. So you may not necessarily see

86
00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,480
Speaker 2: Everton high press, but I think you'll a lot of

87
00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,760
Speaker 2: pressing traps being set in their mid block trying to

88
00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,960
Speaker 2: catch Liverpool out, a position which can work against Liverpool.

89
00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,200
Speaker 2: Teams have been successful against it. In Liverpool. I mean

90
00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,560
Speaker 2: they've been very, very good offensively. I mean the numbers

91
00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,000
Speaker 2: are off the charts. The last time they played Everton,

92
00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,960
Speaker 2: when Sean Dysch was in charge, they beat Everton two nothing,

93
00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,240
Speaker 2: created two point three expected goals and they're the only

94
00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,680
Speaker 2: team so far in the Premier League to create a

95
00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:27,680
Speaker 2: big scoring chance in every single match. And that is

96
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 2: all wonderful, but there are still so many problems defensively

97
00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,800
Speaker 2: for Liverpool and it starts what we say every single

98
00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 2: time is they don't have a ball stopper in the

99
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,039
Speaker 2: middle of the pitch. Curtis Jones is still suspended for

100
00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,880
Speaker 2: this match, so that means that you're just gonna probably

101
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:48,720
Speaker 2: see Alexis McCallister and a makeshift sixth role. Probably Liverpool's

102
00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:52,440
Speaker 2: staying more compact, which is actually good for Everton because

103
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:54,480
Speaker 2: how have they created a lot of their chances this season?

104
00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,080
Speaker 2: Getting the ball out wide and swinging and crosses. They

105
00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,719
Speaker 2: have swung in one hundred and seventy seven crosses this

106
00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,360
Speaker 2: season and that's second most in the Premier League and

107
00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,320
Speaker 2: Liverpool's allowing the eleventh most processes into their penalty area.

108
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 2: So Everton came without a doubt, you know, create chances

109
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 2: against Liverpool in transition. I just hope that the pace

110
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,560
Speaker 2: of the match is fast enough and quick enough for

111
00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,080
Speaker 2: this to be end to end style. And also one

112
00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,160
Speaker 2: more thing. Everton and is typically the sean ditch team,

113
00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,080
Speaker 2: but they've been very good on set piece this season

114
00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,000
Speaker 2: four point three to three expected goals created off as

115
00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,040
Speaker 2: set pieces. That's second most in the Premier League, Liverpool

116
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,280
Speaker 2: thirteenth and x g per set piece allowed. So I

117
00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 2: like both teams to score here. I think we're gonna

118
00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 2: have a end to end style match. I think minus

119
00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,880
Speaker 2: one fifty is a tad low. I projected little over

120
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,680
Speaker 2: minds two hundred for both teams to score here. I

121
00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:44,960
Speaker 2: just really hope Ditsche doesn't go back to those old

122
00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,520
Speaker 2: ways and tries to you know, really stay impact and

123
00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,560
Speaker 2: really try to frustrate Liverpool and make them, you know,

124
00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,440
Speaker 2: circulate the ball from end to end and try to

125
00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,080
Speaker 2: do it that way. But again, one more thing about Liverpool.

126
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,440
Speaker 2: We're coming off international break. This is a twelve thirty kickoff.

127
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,520
Speaker 2: I'm sure Clop's gonna be complaining all week about it

128
00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,799
Speaker 2: and before the match and after the match and everything.

129
00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,120
Speaker 2: Liverpool's got quite a few guys traveling from South America

130
00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,640
Speaker 2: all the way back to Liverpool to play this match,

131
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,560
Speaker 2: so there could be some tired legs for Liverpool. So

132
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:14,640
Speaker 2: if you want to play a side in this one,

133
00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,960
Speaker 2: the value is definitely on Everton. We've only seen it

134
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:20,920
Speaker 2: once against the top tier competition, so I just kind

135
00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,800
Speaker 2: of worry what's gonna happen when they played this Liverpool team.

136
00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:25,880
Speaker 2: But again, I think it's a good matchup for them.

137
00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:27,640
Speaker 2: I think it's a good end to end style match

138
00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 2: if Everton continues to play the way that they have,

139
00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,200
Speaker 2: So both teams to score for me a minus one

140
00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,680
Speaker 2: fifty and I'll be sprinkling the Everton money line as well.

141
00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be on Everden on the money line the

142
00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:47,800
Speaker 1: past oh maybe eight twelve Merseyside Darby's at no post.

143
00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,600
Speaker 1: Angelotti like, the question was will Everton be able to

144
00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,800
Speaker 1: just sit back, absorb enough and get lucky. Yeah, that

145
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,600
Speaker 1: was the path to success, and that's even true with

146
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 1: Deutsche last year. And now there's actually a way that

147
00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,000
Speaker 1: everybody could win this game themselves, like with the way

148
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,720
Speaker 1: they've been playing, like they can actually go out and

149
00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,840
Speaker 1: take the game. They've shown it. I think it's pretty

150
00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:18,239
Speaker 1: clear that Everton are a bit underrated per their actual

151
00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:23,560
Speaker 1: results for six, their underlying statistical portfolio, and like you said,

152
00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,600
Speaker 1: I think that the spot definitely favors them. I guess

153
00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,800
Speaker 1: a Liverpool team that's just been leaky and this Everden

154
00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,240
Speaker 1: team has just been creating a ton of scoring chances.

155
00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 1: So I think that this is an actually a really

156
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,319
Speaker 1: good bet on Everden.

157
00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,319
Speaker 2: Yeah. And one more thing that that last match that

158
00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,360
Speaker 2: they played where Liverpool kind of dominated them to nothing.

159
00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,960
Speaker 2: I mean Ellis Sims was playing up top forever too.

160
00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and they were in a they were

161
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,840
Speaker 1: in like the depths of a relegation battle, like where

162
00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,480
Speaker 1: you're you're ethos and your philosophy of playing a game

163
00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 1: is very different because you're just doing everything. You can't

164
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,400
Speaker 1: just rape out of point in that in that math.

165
00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 2: And Everton one of the few teams in the Premier

166
00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,840
Speaker 2: League that's like very healthy right now. I mean, I

167
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,320
Speaker 2: know we're knocking on wood obviously, but I mean they're healthy,

168
00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:15,640
Speaker 2: they have everybody available, so it's a good spot for them.

169
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, with you seven, that's the seventh thir and the

170
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:24,040
Speaker 1: am kick off another underdog. I like ten am Manchester

171
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:28,200
Speaker 1: City and minus two seventy five hosting Brighton six to

172
00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 1: one and the draw is plus four fifty. I know

173
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,319
Speaker 1: that this can be one way traffic when these two

174
00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:38,760
Speaker 1: teams meet. However, the City attack, I mean you said

175
00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 1: you just said that everdence creating more expected goals than

176
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:46,160
Speaker 1: City to start the year. The City attack leaves this

177
00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,920
Speaker 1: door open because Brighton's attack has just been so good.

178
00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, the Brighton defense is can be a nightmare

179
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,840
Speaker 1: every now and then, and we've seen them get pasted

180
00:09:54,880 --> 00:10:00,240
Speaker 1: a couple of times already this season, but they punch

181
00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,760
Speaker 1: ups so well. They're legitimately one of the best teams

182
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,840
Speaker 1: in all of Europe. If you were to create a

183
00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 1: twenty team league of the best teams in Europe, like

184
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,600
Speaker 1: Brighton's in that league, I think you can go even

185
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,880
Speaker 1: further than that. And you're getting six to one. I

186
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,320
Speaker 1: know they're on the road, but I just this is

187
00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,800
Speaker 1: this team is always worth a look when you get

188
00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,000
Speaker 1: this kind of price, especially with the way City is

189
00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,360
Speaker 1: not playing teams off the pitch at the moment, and

190
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,880
Speaker 1: another situation where you've got a lot of people traveling

191
00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 1: in off of like European qualifiers and all that kind

192
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:36,160
Speaker 1: of noise.

193
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so I'm I'm going to pass on this

194
00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 2: one unless the price gets a little better. There are

195
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,000
Speaker 2: some positive signs for Brighton in this one, and one

196
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 2: thing I think they can really attack City with is

197
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,600
Speaker 2: long balls instead of using essentially from their build up.

198
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,240
Speaker 2: They're obviously going to build out of the back, but

199
00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,719
Speaker 2: once they get the ball to their center backs, I

200
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:57,840
Speaker 2: think you actually might see quite a few long balls.

201
00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:01,599
Speaker 2: Brighton has the second best long ball completion percentage in

202
00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,680
Speaker 2: the Premier League and Cities allowing the third highest, so

203
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,000
Speaker 2: there can be some space available, especially on the wings

204
00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 2: if you know bright What Brighton likes to do obviously

205
00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 2: is overload the central parts of the of the pitch,

206
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:16,400
Speaker 2: and pep guard Guardiola obviously knows that, so City will

207
00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,280
Speaker 2: probably play a little bit more compact and I don't think

208
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,400
Speaker 2: you see them pressing very high, and especially against Arsenal City.

209
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:23,760
Speaker 2: A lot of the match was just kind of sitting

210
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 2: off and not really trying to press Arsenal High. I

211
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,439
Speaker 2: think they were a little afraid if they did that

212
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,080
Speaker 2: they would have gotten a little too exposed. And I

213
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:33,679
Speaker 2: think they might have the same problem here. So Mitoma

214
00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,200
Speaker 2: and March on the wings will should have, you know,

215
00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,720
Speaker 2: a lot of space to roam. The one worry with

216
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,840
Speaker 2: Brighton is obviously they've been very bad defensively and one

217
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,679
Speaker 2: thing that they've kind of struggled with especially it's very

218
00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,600
Speaker 2: very evident this season again when they're facing teams that

219
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:53,040
Speaker 2: have big, powerful forwards, their center backs. If you know,

220
00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,240
Speaker 2: obviously Lewis Dunk's an incredible center back, but the other

221
00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,200
Speaker 2: center backs really haven't been able to cope with them.

222
00:11:57,520 --> 00:11:59,160
Speaker 2: If you look, you know, if you go back through

223
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,600
Speaker 2: like when they played west Ham, mckel antonio just completely

224
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:06,440
Speaker 2: bossed Adam Webster for large portions of that match and

225
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,720
Speaker 2: created two of the goals against west Ham. So Holland

226
00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,840
Speaker 2: is you know, he's been a little quiet lately and

227
00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:14,520
Speaker 2: you know he could have a big game here. But

228
00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,880
Speaker 2: the one thing about City and their attack. I tweeted

229
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:19,920
Speaker 2: this out today and it's you know something I mentioned

230
00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,800
Speaker 2: a lot on this podcast, which is final third of

231
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:23,720
Speaker 2: box entry conversion rate, which I think can tell us

232
00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,480
Speaker 2: a lot of different things. In the case of a

233
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:30,640
Speaker 2: team like Manchester City offensively, whatever their percentage is can

234
00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,000
Speaker 2: tell us how effective they are at breaking down teams

235
00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:34,559
Speaker 2: that want to sit in low blocks. No, Brighton's not

236
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,920
Speaker 2: going to do that. But they're dead last in the

237
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,040
Speaker 2: Premier League. About twenty five percent of their final third

238
00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,920
Speaker 2: entries turn into box entries. Now have they have like

239
00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,400
Speaker 2: eighty final third entries a match. So it's not like

240
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,199
Speaker 2: it's a it's a crazy number, but it does tell

241
00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,640
Speaker 2: us that, you know, maybe they haven't been as effective

242
00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 2: as they have been in years past and doing that. So, yeah,

243
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,080
Speaker 2: I just worry a little bit here Brighton. There they've

244
00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,400
Speaker 2: been bad in transition defensive moments, so if they turn

245
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,280
Speaker 2: them ball over high here, it could get bad. But yeah,

246
00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,200
Speaker 2: if you're gonna take Brighton, take them on the money line,

247
00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:04,920
Speaker 2: like take the shot on, then don't take them on

248
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,480
Speaker 2: the spread because it could get really bad, or it

249
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,640
Speaker 2: could or they could obviously come out and create a

250
00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,280
Speaker 2: ton of chances and get out the city defense. But yeah,

251
00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,280
Speaker 2: so if you're gonna take anything. Brighton on the money

252
00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,080
Speaker 2: line is definitely the player, So I agree with you.

253
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good point. On to Chelsea

254
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,480
Speaker 1: and Arsenal. No, I should note that Anthony he liked

255
00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 1: the both teams to score in the first half of

256
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:33,360
Speaker 1: the Merseyside derby Liverpool and Evident, and he liked he

257
00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,320
Speaker 1: leans towards the under in Brighton and City under three

258
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,760
Speaker 1: and a half. He also likes the under here in

259
00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:42,080
Speaker 1: Chelsea and Arsenal. Chelsea's plus two ten, Arsenal plus went

260
00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:47,040
Speaker 1: thirty and the draw is plus two forty. You know,

261
00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,199
Speaker 1: some of their national breaks are just much needed, and

262
00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,120
Speaker 1: this one certainly was. I felt like it's such a

263
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:58,280
Speaker 1: slog benning Premier League and soccer and it just you

264
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,439
Speaker 1: need that breather. Sometimes there are some international breaks that

265
00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 1: you wish never came. But this went definitely appreciated, and

266
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,200
Speaker 1: it was because I went into it with that Liverpool

267
00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,280
Speaker 1: excuse me. The City Arsenal game had the nil nail

268
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,400
Speaker 1: ten to one. Yeah, lost it there at the end.

269
00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,000
Speaker 1: I know that was a good result for you in

270
00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 1: your heart, but guess what, I'm going right back to

271
00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:21,280
Speaker 1: the nil nail here and Chelsea and Arsenal. Yeah, this game,

272
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 1: who's scoring?

273
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,440
Speaker 2: I know, want to score.

274
00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:28,440
Speaker 1: I think both teams would be like, I'm totally okay

275
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,480
Speaker 1: with that, Like we don't need to show up, get

276
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,200
Speaker 1: a point, go home, everyone's healthy exactly.

277
00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 2: I think I think it's match is gonna play out

278
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,680
Speaker 2: very similarly to how the City and Arsenal match played out,

279
00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 2: and it brought me. The City Arsenal match brought me

280
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 2: back to a quote that I read a while back

281
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 2: from Julian Naglesman, where he basically somebody asked him is like,

282
00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 2: there has there ever been like a perfect football match,

283
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:57,280
Speaker 2: and he was like no, because football is inherently about mistakes,

284
00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,720
Speaker 2: Like people pay tickets to go watch defensive very incredibly

285
00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 2: rarely do teams score when the defense doesn't make a mistake.

286
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 2: So that's essentially what you saw from Arsenal and Manchester City.

287
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,920
Speaker 2: It was two teams were not going to allow the

288
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:12,680
Speaker 2: other to play through the middle of the pitch. They

289
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,200
Speaker 2: wanted to be solid defensively, and the pace was incredibly slow.

290
00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:17,480
Speaker 2: And I think that's what you're going to see here

291
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,280
Speaker 2: is that Arsenal, especially now that they have declan rice,

292
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 2: they are able to control the pace of matches and

293
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 2: a match like this they are going to play very

294
00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 2: very slow and try to build out of the back

295
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,520
Speaker 2: and I'm not so sure. I mean, Chelsea has good

296
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,080
Speaker 2: pressing numbers right now, like they're believe they're sitting in

297
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,120
Speaker 2: the top five and pass per defensive action and high

298
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 2: turnovers and everything like that, but they're along, you know,

299
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,360
Speaker 2: the same lines of Everton. They haven't played really any

300
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,640
Speaker 2: difficult competition whatsoever. I mean the best team that they've

301
00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:47,040
Speaker 2: played was match week one against Liverpool. Ever since then

302
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:51,560
Speaker 2: it's been west Ham, Luton, Forrest, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Fulham

303
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 2: and Burnley. Like it's been a very very easy schedule.

304
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 2: So I highly doubt they're going to come out and

305
00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,640
Speaker 2: just relentlessly press Arsenal and try to struck their build

306
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 2: up play. I feel like they're gonna sit off quite

307
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 2: a bit, try to set some pressing traps and Arsenal

308
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 2: probably knows that. So it's gonna be very very slow.

309
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 2: But the Arsenal thing is the thing is is I

310
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 2: know Anthony would have loved to come on here and

311
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 2: talk about how terrible the Arsenal offense is and there

312
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,560
Speaker 2: are some concerns with it. We probably should be playing

313
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 2: gabriel Jyzeus as a nine. They've just had some injuries

314
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,440
Speaker 2: that they've had to deal with. But the biggest thing

315
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,840
Speaker 2: with the Arsenal is their defense has been outside of city.

316
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 2: I'd say like the second best in the world right now.

317
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 2: They've allowed two big scoring chances the entire season and

318
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 2: only point eight two nine penalty x CHIEP for ninety minutes.

319
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,320
Speaker 2: And it comes down to guys being healthy. You know,

320
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 2: last season towards the end, Saliba got hurt, Zenchinko got hurt,

321
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,840
Speaker 2: and they didn't have their usual back four. When they

322
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:49,920
Speaker 2: play their back four of Ben White, Saliba, Gabrielle and Zinchenko,

323
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 2: they're incredible. Like they're allowing around that point eight nine

324
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 2: penalty x GIP for ninety So yeah, and a Chelsea,

325
00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I understand that they've underperform their x g again,

326
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 2: but there's still like tenth and through that easiest schedule,

327
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree with you. The nil nil I'm

328
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:09,640
Speaker 2: playing under two and a half at minus one ten

329
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 2: I do. I mean, I'm projecting two point seven goals

330
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 2: for this, but that's taking a lot of prior data

331
00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,840
Speaker 2: and given what we've seen so far this season. I've

332
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 2: highly doubt this match is going to be incredible back

333
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,719
Speaker 2: and forth. And the one more thing is even if

334
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,960
Speaker 2: somebody scores first, I don't see this match just completely

335
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 2: opening up and being like this end end stock a week.

336
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 1: And I don't know if they'd get the ten goals

337
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:37,400
Speaker 1: in this one. I say that now five yeah, yeah,

338
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,920
Speaker 1: Like I said, Anthony likes the under He also suggested

339
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,360
Speaker 1: a sprinkle on Arsenal team total under half a goal

340
00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 1: of plus three thirty.

341
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 2: So don't do that.

342
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 1: We're all on the same page here. We're on the

343
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 1: same page. Bourne and Wolves. Anthony says he thinks he

344
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,639
Speaker 1: would play Bourne, just have to be a bit of

345
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 1: a better number there plus one thirty seven at home,

346
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,199
Speaker 1: so they're favored, as well as are traveling as a

347
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 1: plus two hundred underdog and the Jaws plus two forty.

348
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 1: These odds, of course, are from bet three six five

349
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:11,199
Speaker 1: and yeah. I think this one is pretty easy to

350
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:11,880
Speaker 1: move along.

351
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 2: From it is, And the only thing I would tell

352
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:18,640
Speaker 2: is people, if you want to chase something like over

353
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 2: four and a half is like five to one, or

354
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 2: over five and a half is like eleven to one.

355
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,679
Speaker 2: I could see they're just being absolute complete chaos in

356
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 2: this match. These two teams i'd say are the biggest

357
00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 2: chaos teams in terms of I mean Bournemouth they kept

358
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 2: trying to build out of the back against Everton and

359
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 2: they just kept turning it over again and again and

360
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 2: again and again. And they're going to continue to keep

361
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 2: doing that. So Wolves will press high occasionally. They've been

362
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:46,679
Speaker 2: setting good mid blocks. They're a good transition team. Nato

363
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 2: has been incredible. So if you want some chaos, I

364
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 2: think this could potentially be one of the bigger chaos

365
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 2: matches in the weekend.

366
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 1: Now.

367
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:55,880
Speaker 2: I wouldn't play over two and a half of minus

368
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 2: one thirty five. I think the probably playing that as

369
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 2: straight is little too. It's pricey, but you want to

370
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 2: chase something over five and a half and eleven to one,

371
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 2: I think it's the play.

372
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 1: We love chaos on this show, and you know what

373
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 1: everyone else loves compliments and compliments are guaranteed. After making

374
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 1: the leap to skincare with Caldera Lab, and I'm talking

375
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,640
Speaker 1: about how you look today and twenty years from now,

376
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 1: the results are incredible. In little time, Men's Skincare and

377
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,080
Speaker 1: Caldera Lab are the perfect pair for you to look

378
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,439
Speaker 1: and feel your best. Super easy to add to your

379
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 1: morning and nightly routine. Clear skin less wrinkles, less signs

380
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 1: of aging. Enough, said Caldera Labs Skincare. Joined the other

381
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand men who trust Caldera Lab and show

382
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 1: your best first impression this fall. Caldera Lab knows the

383
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: skincare world is heavily female driven and has long been

384
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: the wild wild West for men. But that's why they're

385
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,119
Speaker 1: making the solution simple with just three steps. One the

386
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 1: clean Slate, which is a face wash to start and

387
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 1: end your day, to the base Layer, which is a

388
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 1: daily moisturizer to hydro your sickin. And three the Good

389
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 1: which is an icy room you can put out at

390
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 1: night to help your skin look tighter and smoother. And

391
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 1: just for our audience, we have an exclusive deal. Use

392
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 1: the code goal at Caldera Lab dot com to get

393
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: twenty percent off right now. That's twenty percent off with

394
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: a code goal at Caldera Lab c A L D

395
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 1: E r A l A b dot com. Make unforgettable

396
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: first impressions with Caldara Lab. You know what else we

397
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 1: love is Brentford, At least usually not when they're minus

398
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 1: one twenty five, although one of us might be playing

399
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: them here. They are odds on against Burnley who are

400
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: traveling plus three thirty three and the draws plus three

401
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 1: eighty another one I was happy to pass.

402
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: On, you know. I looked at this and it kind

403
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 2: of was an immediate pass for me. And then I

404
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 2: started to dig in a little deeper and deeper and deeper,

405
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: and I came out actually liking the BS at minus

406
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 2: one twenty five. I mean, I do project them at

407
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 2: minus one fifty. They've come down a little bit from

408
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,880
Speaker 2: where they were. They opened around minus forty and now

409
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 2: they've come down a little bit and I just don't

410
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 2: really see it with Burnley at the moments. I mean Burnley,

411
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 2: if it wasn't for Sheffield United, they will They would

412
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 2: have created the fewest to expect goals of anybody six

413
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,919
Speaker 2: point five in their first eight matches. They continue to

414
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 2: try to build out of the back. It's not working.

415
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: They constantly turned the ball over against Chelsea, That's why

416
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: they lost. Created numerous transitional opportunities. And Brentford, while they're

417
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 2: not the type of team that's going to come out

418
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 2: and press high, they love to press in their own

419
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 2: final third. I mean they are fifth and pass per

420
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 2: defensive action and fourth and opponent build up completion percentagell owed.

421
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 2: So they can cause a lot of problems for Burnley

422
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 2: once they get into the final third and create those

423
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 2: transitional opportunities. Burnley they've been bad in transiit defense because

424
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 2: they keep turning the ball over high their nineteenth and

425
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 2: final third a box entry conversion rate allowed Brentford second

426
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 2: and expected threat fourth and final third to box entry

427
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 2: conversion rate. So a very very good transition team, as

428
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 2: we know many many times. And another thing that Vincent

429
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: Company has done is, you know, typically when he came

430
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 2: into the Premier League of what he's been doing for

431
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 2: a lot of it is pressing Manda Man out of

432
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 2: a four to four to two out of possession and

433
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 2: it hasn't worked like they consistently get played through and

434
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: they've given up a ton of goals. So against Chelsea,

435
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 2: he switched to a passive four to one four to

436
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 2: one mid block. But what happened was is because he

437
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 2: set up his team and the personnel that he had

438
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: to play a certain style, switching to play a more

439
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 2: passive style didn't work either. It gave Chelsea too much time.

440
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 2: They played right through them, got the ball wide and

441
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: created a bunch of chances that way end up scoring

442
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 2: four goals. So I don't think either approach is going

443
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 2: to work here against Brentford. If they decide to play passive,

444
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: Brentford can very easily play a four to three to

445
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 2: three and build out of the back. They've done it

446
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 2: many times against Leicster competition. Or if Burnley tries to

447
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 2: press them high, well, BRender will just send long balls

448
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 2: up the pitch and get the ball to Wison and

449
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 2: Weemo in one v one situations against the opposing center back.

450
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: So it's a weird situation that Burnley is in here.

451
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: So and Brentford one more thing since the start of

452
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: last season when they played teams in the bottom half

453
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 2: of the table at home at the Brentford Community Stadium plus

454
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 2: nine point three expected goal differential and thirteen matches, So

455
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,640
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the Bees and minus one twenty five.

456
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 2: I mean, I project a little bit of value on it,

457
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 2: and I think there are still some problems here with

458
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 2: Burnley that haven't been sorted out yet, and so until

459
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 2: I see it, I'm going to continue to fade Burnley Yeah.

460
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: I think you can make the argument that Burnley had

461
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 1: been Yeah, well United, Burnley had been up there and

462
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 1: near the top of the table for the most disappointing

463
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 1: team at least from the kind of relegation blob that

464
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: we were talking about before the season. They were much

465
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 1: hyped and they have failed to meet it. Onto Newcastle

466
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: and Palace. Newcastle's minus two to twenty three at home,

467
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 1: Palace traveling is six to one underdogs and the draw

468
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 1: is three to one and a little bit north three

469
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 1: to one. These are the kind of numbers I like

470
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: that in Palace set like you just you know you're

471
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: going to get a professional effort. You know that Roy

472
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: Hodgson is gonna set them up to yep, for lack

473
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 1: of a better word, to stay in the game as

474
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: long as they can, like against an opponent like this

475
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: on the road, hostile environment. Newcastle, they are on song

476
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: at the moment, just absolutely buoyant. After the I mean

477
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: they draw, they did, they did play to a draw

478
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: going into the break, but you know, the win over

479
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: PSG at home, it's and just there formed before that

480
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: it was a three and a three in a row,

481
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: and then you in the league and you throw the

482
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: PSG match on top. But Palace are the team like House,

483
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: are the type of team that can just snuff that

484
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: out because they're just gonna come there. They're gonna be organized,

485
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: they're gonna battle you. Newcastle could do their little slow

486
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: build up stuff. It could, it might just take forever

487
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: for this game to get going. I really like Palace

488
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,679
Speaker 1: at this number. I'm in the money, yeah, I think

489
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: the one.

490
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like both teams score no it minus one fifteen.

491
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: They don't halia Palace either. The problem I have with

492
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 2: Pallace and I do. They have been very, very good defensively,

493
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 2: and it's something that we talk about a lot with

494
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 2: Palace and especially Roy Hodgson, is they're not gonna come

495
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 2: out and try to press Newcastle. They're gonna sit back.

496
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: They're gonna sit in there low block and they're back

497
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 2: four of ward Yahee Anderson and Mitchell have been playing

498
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 2: together for so long. They're so good and well organized

499
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: back there and check the Corey looks like he's gonna

500
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 2: play in this match, which obviously massive to them. But

501
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 2: handing the ball to Newcastle and asking them to break

502
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 2: them down I think is a good strategy here because

503
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 2: Now you can make the argument that a team like

504
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 2: Newcastle can break down low blocks, but they've been breaking

505
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: down really bad low blocks like Sheffield United and west Ham.

506
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 2: But what happened when Newcastle played a team like Brentford.

507
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: They did next to nothing for the entire match. They

508
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 2: got a penalty and one to one nothing, created point

509
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: seven x G from open play and only took eight

510
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 2: shots against Brentford. Pallace top five right now and expected

511
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 2: goal is allowed top five and big scoring chances allowed.

512
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: The issue I have here with Pallas is they're gonna

513
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 2: be without Essay for this match. Edward's gonna be back,

514
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: which is a big, big key for them, But Esa

515
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 2: has been so big for them. I mean he leads

516
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: them in pretty much like every single offensive category that

517
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 2: they have. And I'm just not sure if Krystal Palace

518
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 2: can threaten Newcastle in transitional moments. I mean, west Ham

519
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 2: did create one point two expected goals against Newcastle, and

520
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: the reason they did one point two is because Nick

521
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 2: Pope made an incredibly dumb goalkeeping error that led to

522
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 2: a tap in which that shot had a point nine

523
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 2: you know XG rating. West Ham did nothing for the

524
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,479
Speaker 2: remainder of the match and scored a goal from outside

525
00:26:55,480 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 2: the box. So so I like both team scored minus

526
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 2: one fifteen. I question Newcastle's true ability to break down

527
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: this low block e Shack is questionable to play in

528
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 2: this match. If he doesn't play, that's really massive to

529
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: them because if you watch the match against west Ham,

530
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 2: he is pretty much the only reason why they were

531
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 2: creating chances to begin with. He obviously scored twice and

532
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 2: created a ton of chances in and around the box.

533
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: So this has potential for like a new like a

534
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 2: zero zero draw or potentially you know, a one zero

535
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: win for either team, so both teams score or no

536
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen projected at minus one fifty five, so

537
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 2: could be kind of a snoozer at Saint James Park.

538
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, the we were talking about the range of outcomes

539
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: for Bourne Myth and Wolves being all over the map,

540
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: and this is kind of the antithesis of that one

541
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 1: where you can kind of just see three outcomes here.

542
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 1: You know, Newcastle wins kind of a sleepy two three

543
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 1: nail take Palace out of the game early. Maybe the

544
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: game ends Neil Nil's second possible outcome or knodded deep

545
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: into the match in Palace nix it so I yeah,

546
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 1: I like Palace here. Also like the underdog. And the

547
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: next one we're gonna talk about that's Noddingham forced as

548
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 1: an odd dot minus one fifty favorite against looten Down.

549
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 1: They're traveling at plus four fifty. There's bigger numbers out

550
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: there on that one, and the draw is plus four

551
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: seventy five. Uh yeah, so lout Down's been bad.

552
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: They're not as bad those as everybody thinks.

553
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I think that's the right way to look

554
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: at it. Is. Their reputation is how to whack like

555
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: they're bad. But you look at their expected gold differential

556
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: per ninety and they're ahead of Sheffield United, Bourne mith

557
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: Burnley and Fulham and they're basically on pire with Wolves.

558
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 2: And they're being Michael. They're being priced like the Norwich

559
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 2: City team from what three years ago.

560
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 1: They're being priced like they've been they were relegated. Yeah

561
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: in March, Forrest is good at home, but they're they're

562
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: still not even force Like this is yes, you can't

563
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: say with a straight face, this looks like a great

564
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: spot to bet louten Down. But this feels like a

565
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: great spot to bet looten Town.

566
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's a fantastic spot to bet Lowtontown.

567
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm gonna betting them every single week

568
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 2: now if the market keeps putting out numbers like this.

569
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 2: This is the highest price that not even Force has

570
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 2: ever been in the Premier League by a pretty wide margin.

571
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 2: Their next highest price was minus one fifteen against Sheffield

572
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 2: United in match week two. Obviously Sheffield denied. What we

573
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 2: know about them now is they're really really bad and

574
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 2: they are the worst team in the Premier League. It's

575
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 2: not Louton Town, but you know, Loutontown obvious look terrible

576
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: against Tottenham, like there's there's no other way to put it.

577
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: And they obviously got benefited by the red card at halftime,

578
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 2: so it didn't look as bad. But to begin that

579
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 2: match it was. It was really really bad. They were

580
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 2: giving up a lot of chances. Tottenham was just walking

581
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 2: into their box and just taking shots from wherever they wanted.

582
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 2: But with that being said, Lowtontown this season has played

583
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 2: five what I would call non elite teams. They've looked

584
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 2: terrible against the elite teams, but against the non elite

585
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 2: teams they again, which would be west Ham Fullham Wolves,

586
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 2: Burnley and Everton. They have a plus point two expected

587
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: goldffronchial in those five matches and Nottingham Forrest has not

588
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: been good offensively at all. They are averaging point nine

589
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: to seven x chiep ninety that's eighteenth, ten point five

590
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: shots per ninti that's nineteenth, and ten point four box

591
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: entries per ninety that's eighteenth. And all of that has

592
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: been with Tywe Allenelli as their main striker. He is

593
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 2: out injured for this match, which is massive for them.

594
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: He has been heat over the last two seasons for them.

595
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 2: He's been a point four to three xt sheper ninety minute.

596
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 2: Striker Chris Wood is going to be the next option,

597
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,959
Speaker 2: which is a pretty significant day. And the one thing

598
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 2: for sure about Lowtontown that we know about them for

599
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 2: sure now is they want to get the ballt wide

600
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 2: and they want to create chances via crosses. They have

601
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: completed the most crosses of anybody into the penalty area

602
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 2: of anybody in the Premier League. That is an incredible

603
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: feat for them to just be leading one category. And

604
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: Notingam Forrest is going to be without Sergarry Air for

605
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 2: this match, which is a big blow for them because

606
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: he's been playing right back essentially consistently for them for

607
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 2: about a year now and is a very very good

608
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: defender in wide areas, especially when Nottingham Forest likes to

609
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: drop five in their back line that will allow And

610
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 2: I don't normally if you listen to the show, I

611
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: don't really give out props, but I have a prop today.

612
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: Michael here Alfhi Daughtry has created twenty chances so far

613
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 2: this Premier League season. That's the fourth most in the

614
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: Premier League, six point a little over six shock rereading

615
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 2: actions per ninety minutes. He is seven to one to

616
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 2: have an assist in this match. So that is the

617
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 2: rough bed here. But I do like Lutontown plus one

618
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 2: at minus one thirty seven and it's an underdog and

619
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 2: that segment as well. But again, the market is just

620
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: perceiving this team as just completely awful, but they've pung

621
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: with the teams in and around their area and the table. Yes,

622
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: they've looked terrible against good competition, but they're not as

623
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 2: bad as the market is perceiving them. So this is

624
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 2: a good spot here to bet Lootontown. Nottingham Force is

625
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 2: significantly overvalued without their their best player, so it's another

626
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 2: bet on Lutontown, another.

627
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: Bet on I was hyped up for that bet against

628
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: that Spurs. So what was happening the Red car?

629
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: Charlie's like thirty seconds they missed an absolute center, so

630
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 2: that Chelsea Arsenal games the twelve thirty, like I said,

631
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 2: the Merseyside derby seven thirty.

632
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: The other games we talked about were tens. And then

633
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: there is also three o'clock game Eastern Time on Saturday afternoon.

634
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: That's Sheffield United as a six to one underdog against

635
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: Manchester United. Is two fifty in the draw for this one?

636
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: Is it four to one? Been betting against Manchester United

637
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: a lot to the most for the most part, it's

638
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: been working, been betting on Sheffield United a lot, and

639
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: it hasn't worked it all.

640
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: I'm not going to do it.

641
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: I will be happy to call it a Saturday before

642
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 1: this match kicks off.

643
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 2: Yep, me too. I mean, I'll be honest. I haven't

644
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 2: done a real deep, like deep deep dive into how

645
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 2: truly bad Sheffield United is. And maybe that's something I

646
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:36,959
Speaker 2: will do next week or sometime when I actually want

647
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: of us have the courage to bet on them, but

648
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: like they've been so bad. I've been like projecting value

649
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: against United for like I think every match this season,

650
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 2: and this has been the one match where I just

651
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 2: don't have any value on them, So I'm passing. I

652
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 2: could give you a ton of stats right now that

653
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: could tell you how bad Sheffield United is, but I'll

654
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 2: just tell everybody they're really bad. They're bad at everything.

655
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 2: They're not good at one right now, So this is

656
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: an easy pass. Do not lay minus one and a

657
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: half if you noted on the road Manchester not on

658
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 2: the road. That is a terrible decision given their defensive situation.

659
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,760
Speaker 2: But they'll probably end up winning four nothing here against

660
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: the Blades and everything will be all good. Eric ten

661
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 2: Hogg will his seat will cool down a little bit

662
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 2: before they go losing the Champions League to Copenhagen this week.

663
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: Nothing, nothing more to add A very little add on

664
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: the Sunday kickoff too. It's as an odds on favorite

665
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: minus one ten hosting west Ham plus two eighty and

666
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: the draws plus two sixty. I would say that like

667
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: it would be west Ham or nothing here against Villa,

668
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: who are all over the map with how they've played

669
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: this year. They they are winning more than they're losing.

670
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 1: I should not know, but you look at their games

671
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: and once again like they're so high event they've When

672
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: you take their expected goals for and expect it goes

673
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: against and put them together, you get twenty eight point

674
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 1: one fifteen point one four thirteen against. I think only

675
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: Brighton is has more than that, and it's it's after that,

676
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 1: it's there's not really anybody all that close west and

677
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 1: west Ham is actually another one that's been high event too,

678
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: So you just don't really think about that when it

679
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: comes to especially with west Ham. So I think you know,

680
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: people will point to the over here you can look

681
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: at another kind of crazy prop like you talked about

682
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:35,439
Speaker 1: with Bournemouth and Wolves. But I'm just like I said,

683
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: I have enough bets on this board. I do, so

684
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: I'm just yeah, I'm happy to to kick this one

685
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 1: to the piss pile.

686
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the totals of three so like like

687
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: you said, like you just mentioned, that's why the total

688
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: is sitting as high.

689
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 1: As it is.

690
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: But I do like aston Villa here at home and

691
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 2: even money, and I think this might be my first

692
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: bet on Astonville. I feel I have been fading them

693
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 2: ever since soon I am re arrived at aston Villa.

694
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 2: But I mean, listen, west Ham has just been flat

695
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 2: out terrible defensively. I mean, David Moyes is playing a

696
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 2: park the bus, extreme low block this season. And what

697
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 2: has been happening with them, and it happened against Newcastle,

698
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 2: is they will look really good for the about the

699
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: first thirty forty minutes of the match, and then when

700
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: you get to the second half they completely start to

701
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 2: tire out because guess what, when you're constantly man marking

702
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: runners in your own final third for seventy percent of

703
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: the match, it gets at tad exhausting, and when you're

704
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 2: not very deep, like a team like west Ham is,

705
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 2: it can cause a lot of problems. So that's why

706
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 2: you see right now sixty percent of west Ham's expectacles

707
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 2: allowed have come in the second half. And Unaiamor has

708
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 2: switched his formation. He's been playing a three to five

709
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: to two Matty Cash and Luca Dean as wingbacks, trying

710
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 2: to progress the ball forward up the pitch and the

711
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 2: results have been working. I mean at aston Villa, when

712
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 2: they're in possession, they're building out of a three two five.

713
00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 2: Those wing backs push high at the field. They get

714
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: in and v one situations, especially with Diabi coming over

715
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 2: to the right side of the pitch to create an overload,

716
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 2: and they've been able to swing in a ton of

717
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 2: crosses to the box and create chances that way. So

718
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 2: they've created a lot of chances via crosses actually created

719
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: had the second most crosses completed in the penalty area

720
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 2: of anybody in the Premier League. West Ham has allowed

721
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 2: the most crosses of anybody. And one more thing about

722
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 2: west Ham is that Ariola the goalkeeper is on an

723
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 2: incredible shot stopping run right now plus three point five

724
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 2: post shot actually plus minus that's most in the Premier League.

725
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 2: So could see some regression coming for him. And if

726
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 2: you think about the team type of teams that west

727
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 2: Ham has been successful against, you know, like a Brighton

728
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 2: or a Newcastle, it's teams that will press them high,

729
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 2: relentlessly and they can send them all along and you know,

730
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 2: actually have some advantages in the middle of the pitch

731
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 2: to win those duels and also space to be able

732
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 2: to operate and transition with the great dribblers that they

733
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 2: have like Pakita and Jared Bowen. Well aston Ville is

734
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 2: not the team that's going to us you high, They're

735
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 2: going to play a mid block and they're going to

736
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 2: condense the space in between the lines. So and west

737
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 2: Ham's not really a team that is going to make

738
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 2: runs off the back line and try and create chances

739
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 2: that way. So they're kind of stuck in this middle

740
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: limbo where I'm not really sure how they are going

741
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 2: to score against aston Villa, even though aston Villa has

742
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: given up a lot of chances. So and yeah, and

743
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 2: you know, aston Villa has. The reason why they're expected

744
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 2: goals is so high is because they've allowed twelve big

745
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,240
Speaker 2: scoring chances, but nine of them have come against Newcastle,

746
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 2: Liverpool and Brighton, so they've been much much better against

747
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 2: lesser competition. So I've projected aston Villa at minus one nineteen.

748
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: I think west Ham's little block has been really, really bad,

749
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 2: and so getting aston Villa at home and even money

750
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: I think has a little bit about all right.

751
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 1: And the last Premier League match on the slate is

752
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: a Monday night football kick between Spurs and Fulham. Tottenham

753
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: minus two hundred, Fulham is five to one and the

754
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: draw is plus three fifty.

755
00:38:57,920 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 2: Uh man.

756
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: It's one of those situations where it's a little bit

757
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: more pencil and paper handicapping than just looking at the numbers,

758
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: because I think in terms of the price, like we

759
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 1: know Tottenam is going to be a little inflated. They're

760
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 1: top of the league right now, they're one of two

761
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: teams that's yet to lose. The vibes are immaculate under

762
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: Big and that said, the matchup here is really good

763
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: for them stylistically, I think, so you can look at

764
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 1: some I think you can look at like a Spurs

765
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 1: minus two and a half at plus three ten as

766
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: maybe my favorite bet if I was going to do it.

767
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 1: I'm not totally sure if I'm there yet. It's a

768
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: Monday kick, so I've got all weekend see if I'm

769
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: looking at my ms or not. But I would look

770
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 1: at a Spurs blowout is the route I'm looking for here.

771
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: I agree, if you're going to do anything, lay here

772
00:39:58,400 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 2: with Spurs.

773
00:39:58,880 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: You know.

774
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 2: The one thing with Tottenham and why they've been so

775
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 2: good final third of box entry conversion. Man, I think

776
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 2: I've said it what eight times already this episode. Well,

777
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 2: Tottam is number one in the Premier like about forty

778
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: percent of the time when they get the ball into

779
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 2: the final third, it's getting in the penaltyaria. That is

780
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 2: how effective they have been at breaking down teams like

781
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,760
Speaker 2: Fulham that want to play a low block. Now, Fulham

782
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 2: has improved defensively over the last few matches, you know

783
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 2: they want obviously against Sheffield United, only allowed point six

784
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,800
Speaker 2: to XG held Palace two point three, held Lootontown to

785
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 2: one point one. But if you look at when they've

786
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 2: played the top tier competition, two point two to man City,

787
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: three point two to Arsenal, three point seven to Brentford,

788
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 2: although they'd have a red card there, and two point

789
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:43,919
Speaker 2: seven to Everton on opening weekend. So yeah, this could

790
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 2: get really badly out of hand, especially if Fulham concedes

791
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: first here and they have to come out of that

792
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: low block and they have to try to press and

793
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 2: gives more space to Tottenham, which has been a death

794
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 2: sentence for many many teams. So it's all about if

795
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 2: Tottenham can score here first. So but yeah, if you're

796
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 2: gonna play anything, you know, like you said, Tottenham minus

797
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: two and a half or any type of alt like

798
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 2: that is is a good way to play it here

799
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: on a Monday.

800
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 1: All right, that's the Premier League done and dusted will

801
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 1: go onto the Bundesliga. Anthony and I both like mines, yeah,

802
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: in different ways. I think that, you know, plus seven fifty,

803
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 1: they're a decent look for the for an upset in

804
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:32,760
Speaker 1: the Bundesliga against third place Bayern Munich. Right now Mine's

805
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: sitting at seventeenth, but they're expected goals differential suggests they

806
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: should be a little bit higher than that. And we

807
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: know we trust both both spencedon on the show and

808
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: he needs a result.

809
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 2: Pretty badly, so he does. He really needs a result.

810
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 1: I think that they're worth worth a look at least.

811
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 2: What do you have for the Bundesliga uh Hoffenheim Eintrach

812
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 2: Frankfurt under two and a half plus one twenty five

813
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: I in track Frankfurt. There's some like really concerning things

814
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 2: going on with their offense. Ever since Gulamani has left

815
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 2: and obviously Kamata has left to Lazio as well, they're

816
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 2: getting a ton of their offense into the final third.

817
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 2: Like they are top seven in both final third entries

818
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 2: and box entries. They have no forwards to finish off

819
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 2: any chances. They have taken the third or the fewest

820
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 2: shots of anybody in the Bundesliga and are averaging one

821
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:31,439
Speaker 2: point zero three non penalty xt for ninety Like that's

822
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: really really bad where you're getting the fifth most final

823
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 2: entries of any team. So like they've been good, Like

824
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: they've been controlling possession and they've been doing that type

825
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 2: of thing and it's been good. But just a really

826
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 2: really bad offense, but a top five defense. They have

827
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 2: a really really good ball stopper and Alia Shakurri, who's

828
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: came over from Cologne just runs for days. He's incredibly

829
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 2: good against teams like Hoffenheim who want to play more

830
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 2: transitional type games, and Hoffenheim their defensive numbers haven't been great,

831
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 2: but they have improved. They had two really baderformances in

832
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season against Heidenheim and Freiburg, but

833
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 2: ever since then they've allowed under one point six x

834
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,959
Speaker 2: G and every single match. So I think you're seeing

835
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 2: just a little bit of an inflated total here with

836
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 2: you know, a Frankfurt team that just can't generate really

837
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 2: any high quality chances whatsoever. If I mean getting the

838
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 2: fewest shots in the Bundesliga with the fifth most final

839
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 2: third entries, like that's incredibly embarrassing and very inefficient in

840
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 2: the final third, so under two and a half plus

841
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,720
Speaker 2: one twenty five and Offenheim and Frankfurt.

842
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 1: For me, all right, what do you got in La

843
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 1: Liga Syria and Legal, Well, we got La Liga.

844
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: The big match of the weekend is Sevilla and Real Madrid.

845
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 2: I think the price is a little too short on

846
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 2: Real Madrid at minus one fifteen. I mean, Sevia is

847
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 2: putting up great offensive numbers, but their defense is still

848
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 2: eighteenth and expected goals they are eighteenth and final third

849
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 2: of box entry conversion rates, showing just how bad they

850
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 2: are in transitional defense. And there is a formation Michael.

851
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 2: I believe it was against Napoli that Real Madrid played

852
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 2: that made just total sense for the team that they

853
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 2: currently have structured. Where they were putting Venetius Junior and

854
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 2: Rodrigo as a front two, they were playing Bellingham as

855
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 2: a ten, and then they were going Valverde, Tony Cruz

856
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 2: and chu Many as like a three man midfield, essentially

857
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 2: a four to three one two. And given how good

858
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 2: Bellingham is, Penn like he might be like, honestly, he

859
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 2: might be the best player on the planet right now,

860
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 2: like Bape has been in a little bit kind of

861
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 2: a bad form, but like Bellingham, does literally everything that

862
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 2: you could ever want from a midfielder. So going up

863
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 2: against the Sevia defense that has been bad. The one

864
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 2: worry here is that Savilla has been very very good

865
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 2: at creating chances via crosses obviously with and Siria as

866
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 2: a great aerial threat in the middle, and Real Madrid

867
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,959
Speaker 2: has allowed quite a few crosses in their penalty area.

868
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: But in terms of a price point, I mean, given

869
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: what we've had in terms of expected gold results, I

870
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 2: mean Real Madrid last season was round a plus one

871
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 2: extra differential per ninety minutes and Sabia obviously was in

872
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: the red, and I mean this season Real Madrid still

873
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,320
Speaker 2: continue to put up good numbers. So too low a

874
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: price on Real Madrid at minus one fifteen against Sevilla

875
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 2: in Syria. Ah salard Etna Kagliari over two and a

876
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 2: half at plus one ten to bottom five defenses going

877
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 2: up against each other. Buladia has been out a few

878
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: matches for Salary Town. I think he's going to be back.

879
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: He's been playing for the last few ones and should

880
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,280
Speaker 2: be there for this match as well. Very very important

881
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 2: player to them and should be able to create a

882
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 2: lot of chances against a very very bad Kagalliari defense.

883
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 2: So honestly, it's been two offenses that have been not

884
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: very good. But when we have a situation like this

885
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 2: where we have two of the worst defenses, I tend

886
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 2: to favor the defensive metrics more than the offensive ones,

887
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: because a lot of the defensive metrics can be more

888
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: indicative than you know, offensive when you're playing specially low

889
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 2: blocks against good teams in Italy and then France, Lil

890
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 2: minus one thirty against Breast, I'm gonna continue fade this

891
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 2: the BREASTWA team. Their underlying metrics have been good. They

892
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 2: were a relegation fodder team last year, they sold away

893
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 2: their best attacker, and somehow they've just put up incredible numbers.

894
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 2: But Lil is still very very very good, number one

895
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 2: in box entries in both offensively and defensively, still second

896
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 2: in league on in expected threat and a lot of

897
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 2: defensive categories. So I think minus one thirty is is

898
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 2: too short of a price at home for LIL against Breast.

899
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:39,720
Speaker 1: Lovely Stuff, Lovely Lovely Stuff, I'm the underdog. Lay three legs.

900
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: This one spits out at one hundred and eighty three

901
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: to one. I will give you Anthony's right now.

902
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 2: He likes I don't know who this is, so tell

903
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 2: me I haven't he's going against Oh.

904
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 1: No, yeah, he likes South to Vigo against our boys.

905
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: Oh gosh, at Letty.

906
00:46:57,760 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 2: I tried it. I texted him. I tried to tell

907
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 2: him they're losing this weekend, but he didn't listen.

908
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 1: Anyways, that's st Anthony. We won't get too deep into it.

909
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 1: I like Evertton plus seven to fifty in the Merseyside

910
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: derby against Liverpool Everdon, according to our good friends over

911
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 1: at Opta have created or have generated more expected points

912
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 1: than Liverpool so far the season. I know, I know

913
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,919
Speaker 1: you can poke holes in the Everdence schedule to date,

914
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 1: and I know that they haven't won many very many games,

915
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 1: and I know that they haven't won very many games

916
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: against Liverpool and the past fifteen years or so beyond that.

917
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: But the point is that they're not as bad as

918
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 1: this number tells you they are, and the gap isn't

919
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 1: The gap is wide between these two teams. Everdence a

920
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: big underdog for reasons, but the gap isn't as wide

921
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 1: as these odds suggest, and it's also a tough spot

922
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: here for Liverpool coming back from the international break. As

923
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 1: BJ noted a lot of players coming from different continents.

924
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 1: Everdon really don't have as much of a problem there

925
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 1: and Leslie say that this Liverpool defense continues to be suspects.

926
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 1: For a second there it looked like maybe they were

927
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 1: getting their act together, there was a blip and they've

928
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: been poor relative to expectations and the Everdon attack has

929
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 1: been honestly better than promising. Promising is maybe an understatement,

930
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 1: so this is a live dog situation. Everdon plus seven fifty.

931
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 2: Loutontown five to one against Nottingham Forest. Again, the Mark

932
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 2: is perceiving this Loutontown team as one of the worst

933
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 2: teams the Premier League has ever seen, and right now

934
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 2: that is just not the case. In the five matches

935
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 2: that they've played against competition around their area of the table,

936
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 2: they have a plus point two expect a gold differential.

937
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 2: That is pretty impressive for a team that doesn't really

938
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 2: have much talent. And what we know about Loutontown is

939
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 2: they love to create a ton of chances be across

940
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 2: as Dotingham Forrest will be without one of their best

941
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 2: wide defenders in search Arier, so Lowtontown could create a

942
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 2: lot of chances off the left wing at Alfi. Daughtry

943
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: also noting Um forced out Taiwa awan Ali their best strikers,

944
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 2: So no, that means Chris Wood is going to be

945
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 2: up top, which is a significant downgrade for Naughtingham Forests.

946
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,760
Speaker 2: So for a not enforced offense that has been bottom

947
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 2: three in every defense offensive category, this is the highest

948
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 2: price they've ever been in the Premier League. It's a

949
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,760
Speaker 2: good time to fade them. With Loutontown five to one.

950
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 1: The hatters all right, So that's Loutontown evident in South

951
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 1: of Bego. It's our three like underdog parlay one hundred

952
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 1: and eighty three to one onto our best bets. Now

953
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 1: for the upcoming Premier League match week, I will let

954
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,840
Speaker 1: you know that Anthony's favorite play is the under in

955
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: Chelsea and Arsenal under two and a half at minus

956
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 1: one ten. I'm gonna take another big price here. I

957
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: like Brighton on the money line at six to one.

958
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: It's my favorite bet. I went back and forth on

959
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 1: Brighton in Palace, but I just think that the upside

960
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 1: with Brighton, as BJ noted, like this match could go

961
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 1: so many different directions, and a lot of those directions

962
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 1: are end up with a Brighton win. The way that

963
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:11,839
Speaker 1: this attack is going this season, it's gonna give any

964
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 1: defense in the world problems. And I know Cities defense

965
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: is still the unquestionable best unit in the world, but

966
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: their attack is not. And so Brighton's poor defense all

967
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 1: of a sudden it doesn't become as big a problem

968
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: as it would if the City offense was firing on

969
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 1: all cylinders like it was for the Lion's share of

970
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 1: last season, especially after the World Cup. So I'm gonna

971
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 1: take a shot here. I just you know, when you're

972
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 1: getting a number like this plus six hundred, even on

973
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 1: the road on one of the better teams in the league,

974
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,959
Speaker 1: top four team in the Premier League, top five teams

975
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: Premier League, however one you want to put Brighton, they're

976
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: just as good as teams like you know, three or

977
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: four years ago, like the Manchester United's are Tottenhams of

978
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 1: the world, and you weren't getting these prices on them.

979
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 1: So if you just kind of switched the names around

980
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:09,400
Speaker 1: and you put a bigger name on Brighton here, you

981
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: want to be getting six to one with sitting in

982
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 1: this kind of form, So I like the Seaguals. It's

983
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:15,399
Speaker 1: my favorite bet.

984
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Everton Liverpool both teams to score at

985
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:23,840
Speaker 2: minus one point fifty. Everton has been incredible offensively and

986
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 2: yes they have played an easy schedule, but they have

987
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,879
Speaker 2: created more expected goals than Manchester City this season. From

988
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 2: a tactical perspective, I think this match sets up pretty

989
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 2: well for them. It spends on what Sean Ditch is

990
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 2: actually going to do. Is he going to go back

991
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 2: to his old ways and play a four or five

992
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 2: to one mid block and not try to press Liverpool high,

993
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 2: or is he going to do what he's been doing

994
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 2: to a lot of teams in the bottom half of

995
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 2: the table, which is pressing high, disrupting build up play,

996
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: creating those high turnovers and creating a lot of good

997
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 2: transitional opportunities, which is how they've created a lot of

998
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 2: these expected goals. Now, what's going to happen with Liverpool

999
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 2: is because they're without Curtis Jones, they're not going to

1000
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 2: have a true number six in the middle of the pitch,

1001
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 2: so it's probably gonna be a Lexi McCallister. And what

1002
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 2: Liverpool has been doing is they've been playing more compact

1003
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 2: out of possession to not allow teams to easily play

1004
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 2: through the middle. So that means there's gonna be a

1005
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 2: lot of space in wide areas for Everton, which is

1006
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 2: a good thing because Everton has completed the fourth most

1007
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,319
Speaker 2: crosses of anybody in the Premier League this season into

1008
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,760
Speaker 2: the penalty area. Liverpool while thirteenth in that same category. Defensively,

1009
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 2: Everton also incredible set piece defense. You always know that

1010
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 2: with Sean Ditsch teams. They've created four point three to

1011
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 2: three expected goals off a set pieces, that's second most

1012
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 2: in the Premier League. Liverpool thirteenth in expected goals allowed

1013
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 2: per set piece this season. So some good offensive advantages

1014
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 2: here for Everton, but the Liverpool offense is still elite.

1015
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 2: They've created a big scoring chance in every single match

1016
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:45,959
Speaker 2: they've played the season, the only team in the Premier

1017
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 2: League to do that. It's still you know, top three

1018
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 2: in expected goals. So for an Everton defense that hasn't

1019
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 2: really played much top tier competition, they could get a

1020
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 2: little bit exposed here. So both team to score at

1021
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 2: minus one fifty in Everton and Liverpool.

1022
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:03,879
Speaker 1: Okay, that does it for this episode of Wonder Girl,

1023
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,959
Speaker 1: presented to you by our friends at Bet three sixty five.

1024
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 1: We will be back for a Champions League preview on

1025
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 1: Monday morning, so be sure to check out that episode

1026
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: when it drops. Until then, best of luck with all

1027
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: your bets this weekend soccer and beyond. Be sure to

1028
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:25,720
Speaker 1: check out the other Action Network podcasts BBOC for college football,

1029
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 1: line change is back in the NHL, and of course,

1030
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch as the MLB playoffs are in full swing.

1031
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 1: For bj Couneham, I'm Michael Leebuff for Anthony Dubundo, who

1032
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 1: will be back hopefully on Monday. We will see you

1033
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 1: next side. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1034
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:55,880
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1035
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,839
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1036
00:53:58,920 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler