WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 28th, 2026 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.040 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So here's the laces. 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.600 This morning, the US of around exchanging fresh strikes with 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.360 the White House, saying little progress has been made towards 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:45.479 a deal. General Karen Gibson of Academy Securities, writing, I 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:49.080 suspect and hope negotiations may be more advanced than either 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:52.280 side is letting gone, at least publicly, despite the rhetoric 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:54.920 and in many ways the action too. General Gibson joins 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:56.760 us now for more. General, welcome to the program. Where 0:00:56.760 --> 0:01:00.160 do you suspect we have made some progress? 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:00.960 Well? 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:04.920 I think that if we had a complete lack of progress, 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.080 we would be seeing more aggressive actions on the part 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:13.600 of the United States, whether that was additional significant sanctions 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:18.240 or strikes beyond the ones we've been doing. I maintain 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:22.840 that the ceasefire, while fragile, is still holding despite the 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.480 strikes that we've had over the last three days. What 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:29.720 characterizes these strikes is that they are very narrowly specific 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:34.400 to aggressive actions that Iran was alleged to be making 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:36.880 in and around the Strait of Hormuz buonder a boss, 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.720 whether that was vessels laying minds that would potentially constrain 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:44.480 navigation and traffic, or one way drones. And it's important 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.720 to remember that even under a ceasefire, you do not 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:51.320 lose the inherent right of self defense. So if we 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:55.000 were not making progress in negotiations, we might see broader 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:58.800 strikes further somewhere else in Iran that more clearly violated 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:03.120 the ceasefire. But I think these are very defense related, 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.520 self defense related, and within the balance of the ceasefire. 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.360 If these are defense related, then is the United States 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:12.440 doing anything in terms of deterrence when it comes to Ron. 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:16.240 Well, I think our presence acts as a deterrent as well. 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:20.440 I mean the fact that if Iran were to out 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:23.520 of the blues strike some kind of golf infrastructure or 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.760 civilian targets or something else that was in the broader 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.160 golf region against one of our partners. I think it 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:31.799 would be certainly I would expect the United States to 0:02:31.840 --> 0:02:37.000 take some broad action, probably additional punishing air strikes. And 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:39.440 Iran knows that we can do that and that we're 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:41.760 prepared to do that, won't hesitate to do that, and 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:44.359 that in itself is a form of deterrence. 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.240 Given these recent clashes, do you understand where the red 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:52.680 lines are in terms of kinetic warfare between Iran and 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:53.880 the United States. 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.000 Yeah, so, again, you'd never give up the right of 0:02:57.040 --> 0:03:00.760 self defense, even under a ceasefire. And so these were 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:04.520 activities that were identified that looked as though they would 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:09.040 threaten navigation or directly threaten our naval assets and air 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.280 assets that are there right off the Strait of Hormus. 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:12.679 That's permitted. 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:16.680 I think that's an important distinction. And even Iran's counter 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:21.959 strike in which they launched assets towards Kuwait, they claim 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:24.000 to have shot down one of our predators. I don't 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:26.240 believe it. It's always kind of a given that they're going 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:30.600 to exaggerate for their own domestic audiences, those are I 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.880 think probably within the bounds of the seasfire. I'd make 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:37.000 two more points there. One, if we were striking dual 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:42.160 use military civil infrastructure elsewhere in Iran that wasn't directly 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:45.280 related to the navigation in the straits, that's probably not 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.200 within the bounds of the ceasfire. Again back to if 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.520 Iran were to strike say Fugyra again in the Emirates 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.880 their port outside the Strait of Hormus, that would probably 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:57.000 not be within the bounds of the seasfire. But the 0:03:57.080 --> 0:03:59.880 last point I'd make is that a ceasefire is not 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:04.080 a real physical thing. It's a construct that's developed between 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:07.800 the two negotiating sides by policymakers or leaders, and it's 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.480 really up to them to decide that a ceasefire is 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.360 no longer holding, whether it's because of a single shot 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:16.000 across the bow or something far more extensive. 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:17.640 Don't know. You said something there that I thought was 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:21.760 really important that Iran it obviously exaggerates for its audience. 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.240 The US also trying to job oon markets, and this 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:25.920 is one reason why markets. 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:26.599 Have tuned out. 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:30.320 Who are the respective parties trying to speak to and 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:32.159 how is that muddying the message. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.560 That's a terrific point. I think, you know, both in 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:40.840 both sides in probably any conflict, I think the leaders 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:44.960 are speaking, particularly in Iran, to their own domestic audience. 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.200 They need to appear strong. They need to make the 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.440 United States look weak. They want to make it look 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:52.359 as though we are the ones that are about to 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:56.600 give an and concede something. You know, that strategic narrative 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.800 is actually also an area where we're competing. They are 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.120 speaking directly to their domestic audience. Our president is speaking 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:07.360 to our domestic audience. But there are also broader market 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.520 audiences that both are speaking to. And I think we 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:13.520 have to be really careful about taking literally everything that's 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.440 said by a spokesperson from either government. There's often truth 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:19.680 within it, but then there will be other things that 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.760 are said that are hyperbolic or again intended to calm 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:27.080 or influence markets, to shape public opinion, and to influence 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:28.080 the other side. 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:32.159 Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after. 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:43.120 This Across Some cool news for you, the Treasury Department 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:46.120 launching the Trump account app today in collaboration with b 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.640 NY and Robin Hood. The partnership between the public and 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:52.160 private sector, aiming to expand access to long term investing 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:55.400 for American families. Robin Vinz, the BNY CEO, writing, we're 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:59.960 bringing together the Administration's vision and leadership, Robin Hood's digital accessibility, 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:03.400 and bn wise infrastructure. Robin and place to say, joined 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:05.320 the SIN Studio for more, Robin and Monarch, It's great 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:06.680 to be with you. This is a very cool day. 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:08.200 So let's spend some time on this. So you do 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.240 the back end and Robin Hood does the front end. 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:12.640 Yeah, with a financial manager, and Robinhood is bringing all 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.120 of their expertise in the front end as you point 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.839 out the app. And don't forget the National Design Studio 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.640 as well, because they've partnered with the Treasury Department, with BNY, 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.200 with Robinhood to make sure as part of the administration's 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:27.400 push to make services more accessible and easier to use 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:27.920 in the US. 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:29.800 What are sign up's like right now? Ahead of this? 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:34.359 So five million accounts people indicated interest in the IRS 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.320 form forty five forty seven, So that was the first 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.880 step you had to actually register interest. And once you've 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:43.880 done that, you can go to trumpaccount dot com, which 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:45.680 will actually then take you to the app Store, and 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.080 then as the app store rankings grow, you'll see it 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.279 easily pop up on the app stores, and then you 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.680 can download the app, and then you can actually register 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:55.600 and actually put the rest of the information get up 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:59.520 and going. Now, the actual program for investing the money 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.599 does actually launch until July fourth, So these are ready 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:06.000 set moves ahead of the full go of July fourth. 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:08.479 What does this mean for the future of B and Y. 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:10.400 Will you make money off of this or this is 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:12.640 solely for the public good? 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:14.600 Well, we believe in the program. 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:16.360 I think that's really if you step back from this 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:20.000 whole thing, what is the public policy? So the administration 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:23.480 really deserves a lot of credit President Trump, Secretary Bust 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.920 in particular the leadership of the Treasury Department in driving 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.640 this forward. That actually creates the framework to be able 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.320 to have everyone in America be able to participate in growth. 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:36.640 And so we provide as a company a bunch of 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:38.960 different services to the US government. We do it at 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:41.480 the state level, the local level, and at the federal level. 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.520 And so for us, we're frankly just proud to be 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:47.840 able to participate in this. Of course, as part of 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.360 providing the service, we're doing a bunch of different things, 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:53.160 So a robin hood, but it's the public policy that 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:54.320 we are most focused on. 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:54.600 Here. 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:56.240 What else have we done well? 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:59.400 We were the first financial firm to actually offer matching 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:00.880 in to the program. 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:02.200 So remember how it works. 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:06.240 Everyone get who kid who's born in America, the parent 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:08.280 or guardian get to be able to put a thousand 0:08:08.280 --> 0:08:10.800 bucks in if they want it's matching, or they can 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:12.880 put additional money. The government's going to put a thousand 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:16.120 bucks in. Employers can match. We've matched with the program, 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.080 and then we're really leveraging the power of compounding. And 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:21.720 this is the magic of the program. Just let's do 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:25.000 the math for a second two thousand bucks in right 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.200 at the beginning, a thousand bucks from the government, and 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:29.440 let's take the example of a B and Y employee, 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.319 a thousand bucks from us. Now you've got two thousand bucks. 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:34.920 You compound that with the historic rate of return in 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:37.320 the stock market over the past thirty years. Compound that 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.679 for the next thirty years, and in thirty years that 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.760 kid will have forty thousand bucks. Now if the parent 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:48.800 added just another ten bucks a week into the same program, 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.760 ten bucks a week that they're putting into that same account, 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:54.120 Now you'd have one hundred and forty thousand bucks at 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.480 the end of thirty years. Now that's real money. That's 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:59.360 participation in the American Dream. And I think that's the 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:02.680 program vision that the administration and the Treasury. 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:04.360 Sounds like almost an incentive to have a child in 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:07.160 America at this point. But when you think about post 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:10.200 Trunk twenty twenty eight, does this have longevity? Will it continue? 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:11.559 Say a democratic president won? 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:13.559 I think great public policy. 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:16.240 And again, stepping back from it, what is the policy 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.680 the American Dream? And what a time to be thinking 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.520 about this, the two hundred and fiftieth of America. The 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.560 American Dream is one of the things that's fueled this 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:27.679 country over the course of the past two hundred and 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:30.200 fifty years. But we have a problem, which is not 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.040 everyone is participating in the American Dream. And so now 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:36.120 you're talking about taking the forty percent of people in 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:40.240 America who have zero stake in the equity markets and 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.360 actually making them stakeholders in the American Dream and doing 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:46.880 it from birth. So the ability to do that, to 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:51.880 be able to grow, compound, participate, learn how to invest, 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.600 learn how to be part of the capital system that 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:58.120 we actually have. That's a really important piece of public policy, 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.440 and so none of us can predict the future. But 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:03.559 this has been a bipartisan effort from the start. There 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:06.680 have been folks on both sides of the aisle who've 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:09.280 joined into this. There have been wealthy philanthropists like Michael 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.480 and Susan Dell who said they're going to match employers 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.559 like us are matching. I'd encourage all employers in America 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.440 who are able to do so, to be able to 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:22.079 offer matching to that initial seed investment, and collectively, if 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:26.040 we can increase this participation, we're really growing participation in 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.480 the American dream. And I think that is why it's 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:30.360 a great piece of public policy, and so I really 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.480 hope that to see it be able to continue. 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:36.080 It also potentially improves the delta between people who feel 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:38.920 really disenchanted by Wall Street and feel like Wall Street's. 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:39.280 Really let them down. 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.600 As a number of people get very wealthy and they 0:10:41.640 --> 0:10:44.680 aren't necessarily getting wealthy. I just wonder what the guardrails point. Yeah, 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:46.920 so try to say that, well, you can participate too. 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.400 Absolutely, what sort of American dream is that if we 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:51.320 have a bunch of people who aren't participating in it. 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:53.520 I just wonder the ideal versus the reality. When I 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.120 think about a robin Hood account, and then I think 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:57.280 about a teenager or some kid who has access to it, 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.280 I think about my own experience, which is essentially it's 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.080 very high end gambling, but essentially gambling, right, I mean 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.040 it's essentially turning into trying to pick winners and losers. 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:08.360 How do you know that that's not going to be 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:10.440 leading to people going and saying we're going all in 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.040 on gamestap here's your future. 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:13.920 Well, I think this is the key to the design 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:15.960 if you step back and think about what is it 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.520 the Secretary Berston and the Treasury Department. When you actually 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.800 get into the brass tax of how it works. You're 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:24.360 talking about custodial account. So for the right to start with, 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.760 the kid can't touch it until after they turn eighteen, 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:29.920 so there's no opportunity to be able to take the 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:31.920 money out and go and spend recklessly. 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:33.240 Not once they become eighteen. 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:36.120 As the law of the land, they become they own 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:38.480 their own future to some extent. Gives up by the way, 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:43.080 but up until then it's primarily about index funds. So 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.960 that initial investment will be index funds only, so people 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:49.959 aren't having to make choice about individual stocks. They're participating 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:53.280 in the US stock market, They're participating in the growth 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:53.960 of the economy. 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.079 And that's actually the design principle at work here. 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.120 You've got to acknowledge where the yellow trade comes from. 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.400 The yellow trade comes from this idea that they're not participating, 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.280 that the only way to benefit from this economy because 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.439 they feel frozen out from the gains, is to take 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.360 these high stakes risks. So in some ways, this is 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:13.000 a long term goal to do something about the kind 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:14.359 of thing that you're complaining. 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:18.480 About and potentially equalize people who feel completely less about 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.800 and are earning minimum wage as other people do nothing 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.800 and watch their money grow and create income. And this 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:26.560 is sort of the gap that you need to bridge 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.040 in order to create a little bit more of you know, 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.480 the market and the economy can move a little more together. 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:33.240 Rob and I just feel like we're losing the argument 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:35.640 at the moment. The arguments on the left and the 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.360 more populist argument seem to be winning this moment. We 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.160 see this in our UK, the shift towards the left 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.120 and the politics of labor. More recently, we see it 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:47.080 here in New York City, the heart of capitalism, and 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.440 a socialist mayor got elected in this city. What else 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.040 needs to be done to counter some of that, to 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.800 make sure that people recognize the benefit of free markets 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.840 and capitalism. The very idea that we've seen this mass 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.520 affluence in this country's free because of those things. 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.040 Well, I think it is about inclusion ultimately and having 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.280 people be able to participate. So let's go back for 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.360 a second to this concept of the American dream and 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.600 let's define it. What actually makes up the American dream. 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.320 I'm an immigrant into the US. I've lived here for 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:17.640 twenty five years and like very excited to be able 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.959 to be part of this. And if you think about 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.960 folks here in the US, what do they aspire to. 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.880 They aspire for a great life for their family. They 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:28.880 want to be able to have a great education, they 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.040 want to be able to grow, they want to be 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.480 able to have their own home. And so what I 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:37.720 think Trump accounts represent is one piece of the American dream, 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:41.000 which is the ability to have a stake in the country, 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:44.160 a stake in the capitalist system. And so to your point, 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.559 it helps to include that forty percent of people who 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.440 today don't but there are more things. It's not by 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:54.000 itself the solution. Financial education matters a lot. That is 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.120 actually part of the app if you actually look at 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.839 the Trump account app financial education, because we've got to 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:02.400 recognize that saving investing, starting. 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:02.840 Early, compounding. 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:06.120 You were just having that conversation the value of money 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.480 over time and the value of what it means if 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.280 you start early does make a difference. 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:12.160 But housing matters as well. 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.440 Owning your own home over the past fifty years has 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.520 really become part of what a lot of people define 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.040 as owning the America, being part of the American dream, 0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:23.360 and being able to enjoy that. So as a company, 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.280 we've taken a step in that direction. About a month ago, 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.200 we announced a new program at BNY which is to 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.440 help people get that first step on the ladder. If 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:33.120 you work for us and you earn less than one 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.760 hundred thousand bucks, we will actually give and you're buying 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.720 your home, first home, we will give you the equivalent 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.200 of five thousand bucks after tax to be able to 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.400 help you with your down payment. The average home in 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:47.640 America median price about four hundred thousand bucks. Our largest 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.000 office is actually in Pittsburgh. The median price is about 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:53.720 two hundred and fifty three hundred thousand bucks. We've got 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:55.920 a huge at one of our largest growing offices is 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.200 down in Florida. There the medium price about four hundred 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.640 thousand bucks. The average down payment for that type of 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:05.320 home call it about thirty thousand bucks. Now, are there 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.840 government assistance programs for first time owners that are available? 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.920 And so depending on where you are, that might be teny, fifteen, 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.520 even twenty thousand bucks assistance, but you're still left with 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:18.800 a gap ten fifteen thousand bucks. So for us, that 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:22.520 five thousand dollars is bridging either fifty percent or a 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.680 third of their gap for the prospective homeowner, so they 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:29.120 can get their step on the property journey of the 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.920 American dream. So those things really matter. Now we're doing 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.480 that with Bank of America, who's our partner. They're providing 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:38.200 subsidized mortgages to our own employees. 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:39.680 He's figure on this, I know he is. 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:43.120 And he's also leading on this point, which is leaning 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:46.120 into the topic how can we actually help financial education? 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.560 So if you can give people through the Trump accounts 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:52.360 a staking capitalism over time so that they're part of 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.280 it and don't want to have to throw stones at 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:56.720 it and you give people a leg up on the 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:02.160 property dream. Now that's include and bringing people along the journey. 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:05.240 And I think again back to America two fifty, What 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:06.520 a time to be focusing on this. 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.800 Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.800 We begin this hour stocks edging lower as investors grow 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:25.240 cautious over and enter the war. Kady commits give out 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:28.440 for simplex writing. Despite the recent rally inequity markets, there 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:31.880 is clear fatigue over the continued conflict in the Middle East. 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.960 Katie joins us. Now for more, Katie, welcome to the program. 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.640 Let's just dissect the bond market sell off, the individual 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:40.240 drivers of it. What's been driving your tire? 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.840 Well, this is a good question because what we have 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.200 really seen, and I want to point this out, and 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.160 I really liked what Lisa said, is that you've seen 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.680 the bond market get ahead. So the bond market has 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:55.960 been selling off pretty aggressively since the geopolitical risk sort 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:59.120 of got into the market. We have seen some retracement 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.600 more recent in terms of yields coming back down. So 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.800 people thinking that some of this inflation uncertainty is going away. 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:10.680 But today just sort of reiterates that it's not gone yet, 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.439 so we're kind of seeing that come back again today. 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.119 So you can see that right in the chart that 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.280 you yields have gone up substantially on inflation concerns, but 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:21.600 that hasn't dissipated yet. 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:25.040 Do you think we're overestimating the potential for yields to 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.760 fall on a resolution in Iran? Is there more to 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:29.760 this move up than just the Middle East? 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:32.439 That's a good question. 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.440 I think the positioning of the FED relative to other 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.080 central banks is also important. So if you look at 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.120 where the US is sitting and how much higher US 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:42.480 rates are, that matters. 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:44.080 But also the fact. 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.119 That other markets outside the United States is pricing in 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:50.920 things like hikes that does complicate sort of the relative 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.480 positioning of the US FED and sort of add on 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:54.680 top of that sort of a. 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:55.920 Changing FED dynamic. 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.800 So I do think it's not just inflation, it's also 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:02.760 figuring out how monetary policy is going to be set 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:04.160 in a new FMC. 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:05.960 This is a great point, Katie. How much is a 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:07.720 move that we're seeing in bonds in the United States 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:10.040 have more to do with Japan and Europe frankly than 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:11.080 it does the United States. 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:14.119 I think there's a mix. 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:17.600 I mean, just given how much bond moves have priced 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.160 outcuts and moved towards a higher chance of hikes. If 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.120 you look outside the US, for example, the ECV or Japan, 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.760 even also Australia, you start to see a much bigger 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:31.560 shift globally towards a potential for hikes. And that means 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:34.960 that overall, across all regions, that there's more of a 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:38.240 chance of hikes, which could put pressure on the FED. 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:43.359 But remember US rates are higher, so that means that 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:47.200 we have less need to move as quickly as other regions. 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:49.480 You follow trends, and you follow some of the momentum 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:53.000 that we're seeing in different technical readings across the market, 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.760 and I wonder how much we've seen a breakdown between 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:59.000 yields going up and stocks responding in any way, shape 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:01.040 or form. I mean, how to course is this relative 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:04.920 to history when the common mantra was when yields went up, 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.560 stocks went down, risk assets used to wabble, especially if 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.800 it was coming with some mixed readings on a consumer appetite. 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.280 So I love that you asked this question, because we 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:18.359 look at short term correlations between stocks and bonds and 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:22.560 whenever inflation is the key driver of stock bond movements, 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:25.920 you tend to see positive COO movement or positive correlation. 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.760 And we have seen consistent positive correlation between stocks and 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:30.840 bonds since March. 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:33.200 It is not unprecedented. 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.960 We've been seeing that since particularly twenty twenty two. And 0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:39.920 it's just the point that stocks and bonds or bonds 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:44.080 basically do not provide a hedge during periods when inflation 0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:47.440 is a persistent risk, and geopolitical risk is a key 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.159