Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Blueberg Day ba Q podcast. Good morning,
Speaker 2: It's Friday, the ninth of January. I'm Caroline Hepkat in
Speaker 2: London and.
Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, the US Supreme
Speaker 3: Court could decide as soon as today if Trump's sweeping
Speaker 3: global tariffs are illegal.
Speaker 2: Iran cntsaw phone and internet access as demonstrations across the
Speaker 2: country grow.
Speaker 3: Plus why starting a blog is the new Silicon Valley trend.
Speaker 2: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 3: The US Supreme Court could rule as soon as today
Speaker 3: on the legality of President Trump's sweeping tariffs rolled out
Speaker 3: in April of last year. America's top court has scheduled
Speaker 3: this Friday as an opinion day when it issues decisions,
Speaker 3: and cases already argued. A ruling against Trump would leave
Speaker 3: the US government on the hook for tens of billions
Speaker 3: of dollars in tariff free funds. The levies and question
Speaker 3: of so far generation had roughly one hundred and fifty
Speaker 3: billion dollars for the US Treasury. Zoe Tillman is Bloomberg's
Speaker 3: senior legal reporter in Washington.
Speaker 1: Back in April, there were a handful of lawsuits filed
Speaker 1: saying that the President simply doesn't have the authority to
Speaker 1: rely on a nineteen seventy seven Emergency Powers law to
Speaker 1: order these kinds of tariffs, and lower courts repeatedly agreed
Speaker 1: with the challengers said he doesn't have authority to do this.
Speaker 1: The case made its way to the Supreme Court, and
Speaker 1: in the weeks after the court heard arguments on November fifth,
Speaker 1: we've seen this onslaught of activity in court as companies
Speaker 1: have come in with their own lawsuits saying we agree,
Speaker 1: we don't think it's lawful, and if the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: strikes this down, we want our money back.
Speaker 3: Zoe Tillman, speaking there. The Trump administration has signaled that
Speaker 3: if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs are illegal, it
Speaker 3: intends to reimpose most, if not all, of them, under
Speaker 3: different legal provisions.
Speaker 2: Internet and phone services in a row and have been
Speaker 2: cut off after protests ramped up overnight in the country.
Speaker 2: Unverified social media videos show thousands taking to the streets
Speaker 2: in the capital Tehran. The unrest started on the twenty
Speaker 2: eighth of December in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, to sudden decline
Speaker 2: in the value of Iran's currency and is emerging as
Speaker 2: a challenge to the authority of Supreme Leader Iotola Ali Homne.
Speaker 2: The US President Donald Trump says he has warned Iran's
Speaker 2: regime not to resort to violence.
Speaker 4: I have put Arano noticed that if they start shooting
Speaker 4: at him. These people are totally unarmed people, and they
Speaker 4: love their country. They want something to happen. Look at
Speaker 4: their country. They've gone, They've gone back one hundred and
Speaker 4: fifty years. But I've fold them that if they do
Speaker 4: anything bad to these people, We're going.
Speaker 5: To hit them very hard.
Speaker 2: Despite President Chump's comments to Fox News, the Human Rights
Speaker 2: News Agency estimates the state crackdown has already killed forty
Speaker 2: two people.
Speaker 3: The US is considering paying Greenland's residence up to one
Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars each. That's according to Reuter's, which sites
Speaker 3: sources saying the payments would be intended to convince Greenland
Speaker 3: to split from Denmark. Speaking to Fox News yesterday, US
Speaker 3: Vice President JD Vance said Trump's warnings about the territory
Speaker 3: should be heeded.
Speaker 6: The President of the United States is saying very clearly,
Speaker 6: you are not doing a good job with respect to Greenland.
Speaker 6: We're going to make sure we defend America's interest and
Speaker 6: I think the President's willing to go as far as
Speaker 6: he has to to make sure he does that.
Speaker 3: Yes, Vice President jd. Vance there was speaking after Francis
Speaker 3: Emmanuel Macron criticized recent US actions during his annual speech
Speaker 3: to French ambassadors yesterday.
Speaker 7: That's the big risk of the international order that we
Speaker 7: live under. The US as an established power, but one
Speaker 7: that's gradually turning away from certain allies and moving away
Speaker 7: from international rules promoted just recently, whether that's with regards
Speaker 7: to trade and certain elements of security we.
Speaker 3: Do as a Macron, speaking there at the Lisa's Conference
Speaker 3: of Ambassadors, where he also highlighted what he called a
Speaker 3: growing temptation to divide the world amongst great powers.
Speaker 2: Now onto copp News, Rio Tinto is in talks to
Speaker 2: buy rival glen Core. A tie up would create the
Speaker 2: world's biggest mining company, with a market value of more
Speaker 2: than two hundred billion dollars. The new negotiations come a
Speaker 2: little over a year after previous talks between the two
Speaker 2: firms collapsed. Clara Ferrera Marquez is Bloomberg's Managing editor for
Speaker 2: Commodities and energy in Asia.
Speaker 8: They were talking back in twenty twenty four. At that
Speaker 8: point it was glen Core making a move for Reo.
Speaker 8: It looks like this time it might be the reverse.
Speaker 8: They're a very obvious combination. Rio has been interested in
Speaker 8: iron ore and glen Core has a lot better coper
Speaker 8: assets really than Rea does.
Speaker 2: That was Clara Ferra Marquez speaking there, as demand for
Speaker 2: copper has never been stronger than metal. Sword to record
Speaker 2: highs above thirteen thousand dollars a ton earlier this week.
Speaker 3: China's inflation is accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly
Speaker 3: three years, as higher food price as hide deeper concerns.
Speaker 3: December's CPI reading showed prices up zero point eight percent
Speaker 3: compared to the previous year, in line with estimates. The
Speaker 3: increase in food prices drove the rise, but the rest
Speaker 3: of China's economy has been plagued by weak consumption and
Speaker 3: price wars. Producer prices fell by two point one percent
Speaker 3: in the same period, for the thirty ninth straight month
Speaker 3: of declines.
Speaker 2: Now to the UK, where there's been a surge in
Speaker 2: the number of people at risk of losing their jobs.
Speaker 2: That's according to New figures, which will likely set off
Speaker 2: alarm bells at the Bank of England. To Bloomberg Tea
Speaker 2: at a BAIO has more.
Speaker 9: More British workers face losing their job now than at
Speaker 9: any point in almost three years. That's according to fresh
Speaker 9: data from the government's Insolvency Service about the number of
Speaker 9: potential redundancies, which are at their second highest level since
Speaker 9: the pandemic. It's a spike that's especially concerning given job
Speaker 9: losses typically slow over the festive period. Now the pressure
Speaker 9: is on policy makers at the Bank of England to
Speaker 9: continue lowering interest rates this year as the labor market shakeout.
Speaker 9: Intense advice in London, Ty had a Bayo Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: And those are our top stories for you this morning.
Speaker 2: Looking at the markets, equities are trading within a really
Speaker 2: narrow range because there are two big risk events that
Speaker 2: we've just mentioned, the US payrolls report and this possible
Speaker 2: Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs. The Japanese yen
Speaker 2: above the one hundred and fifty seven level. The Swiss
Speaker 2: franc is also ticking lower, and it looks like the
Speaker 2: dollars in line for the best week since November. Oil
Speaker 2: prices extending gains, so investors clearly a monitoring what's going
Speaker 2: on in Venezuela and Iran. Break Crew futures up by
Speaker 2: eight tenths of one percent, six two dollars forty seven
Speaker 2: stop futures for the USOX swifty futures also gaining four
Speaker 2: tenths of one percent. Those are the markets.
Speaker 3: Well In a moment, more on what could be that
Speaker 3: huge day for Ronald Trump's trade tariffs, Plus we'll hear
Speaker 3: from Michelle Hassein's interview with Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro.
Speaker 3: Another story that we've been reading this morning on why
Speaker 3: even the most high tech executives are going low tech.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg depinion columnist Dave Lee has been writing about a
Speaker 3: subject that plunges me certainly, right back to the middle
Speaker 3: of the two thousands, blogging the simpler time on the Internet.
Speaker 3: At the end of December, the Microsoft CEO sauch And
Speaker 3: Nadalla started his personal blog called sn Scratchpad, and Dave
Speaker 3: actually writes that it's the format rather than the content
Speaker 3: that's most interesting about it. It's very minimal style, uses
Speaker 3: a simple template, nobells or whistles. Nadella's name doesn't even
Speaker 3: appear on the site, although there are two links to
Speaker 3: his social media profiles. Why this approach, Dave says maybe
Speaker 3: it's a new cliche in the tech world, allowing the
Speaker 3: sectors visionaries to opine freely without a filter, although he
Speaker 3: does point out the blog was read by two senior
Speaker 3: Microsoft figures before being published.
Speaker 2: Okay, I think this is really interesting. I mean, look,
Speaker 2: on the downside, asking me to read your blog feels
Speaker 2: a bit like having to do my HMRC tax forms.
Speaker 2: But on the other hand, at least that it shows
Speaker 2: that maybe ideas matter, maybe they are back in vogue.
Speaker 2: Human content and thought perhaps are actually valuable to someone
Speaker 2: out there. That gives me some hope.
Speaker 3: I'm quite nostalgic about that moment when the blogger sphere
Speaker 3: was a big thing on the Internet, you know, before
Speaker 3: we all started screaming at each other on social media.
Speaker 3: I think this could be a very interesting idea of
Speaker 3: people moving more back to it. Of course, we've had
Speaker 3: the substack phenomenon as well, which has attracted popstars Choice
Speaker 3: Ivan among them, most recently joining the fact of being
Speaker 3: able to try and publish those direct masters to people.
Speaker 3: So perhaps another shift in the fabric of the Internet.
Speaker 3: You can read Day's full piece a Bloomberg dot com
Speaker 3: slash opinion.
Speaker 2: Let's bringing more now on the expected decision today from
Speaker 2: the US Supreme Court on whether President Trump exceeded his
Speaker 2: powers in imposing his blanket tariffs last April. Our trades
Speaker 2: are Brendan Murray joins us now for more on this.
Speaker 2: Brendan good to speak to what exactly, then, is the
Speaker 2: court looking at.
Speaker 10: So, the Court is looking specifically at the authority that
Speaker 10: the President used to impose tariffs under this so called
Speaker 10: International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The short term for it
Speaker 10: is AEPA, and this is an acronym that applies to
Speaker 10: about three quarters of the tariffs that President Trump has
Speaker 10: collected so far in his second term, amounting to about
Speaker 10: one hundred and fifty billion dollars of a total of
Speaker 10: two hundred billions. So there's quite a lot at stake
Speaker 10: here today. We don't know exactly whether the Supreme Court
Speaker 10: is going to rule today. We just know they're going
Speaker 10: to start reading some opinions around ten am Washington time.
Speaker 10: And because this tariff case has been expedited, we do
Speaker 10: expect it to be among the first of these opinions
Speaker 10: to be addressed this year, so, but it could spill
Speaker 10: into next week as well. But we are on high
Speaker 10: alert for anything the court might say about ruling either
Speaker 10: for or against the centerpiece of President Trump's economic policies.
Speaker 3: So, if the court does decide that these the imposing
Speaker 3: of these tariffs was illegal, what would it mean for
Speaker 3: the tariffs that happened in force up at the now.
Speaker 10: Well, it would mean he would have to come up
Speaker 10: with other ways to collect revenue and impose tariffs. And
Speaker 10: he has at least a handful of other legal ways
Speaker 10: to do that, and they could do it pretty quickly.
Speaker 10: The administration could impose a fifteen percent across the board
Speaker 10: tariff on countries using a different authority under its code
Speaker 10: in the law, under the number one twenty two we've
Speaker 10: heard about two thirty two's. Those are authorities he can
Speaker 10: use already he has on steel and aluminum and autos.
Speaker 10: There's another authority with another number of the three to
Speaker 10: zero ones, and those could also come and we expect
Speaker 10: that the administration would move pretty quickly to essentially replicate
Speaker 10: the tariffs that are out there under this other authority
Speaker 10: that's being challenged with these new authorities, So tariffs aren't
Speaker 10: going away. They just might be coming back around if
Speaker 10: there will court rules against President Trump under these different
Speaker 10: authorities that he has, So a lot.
Speaker 2: Of people wondering, then what about the money that has
Speaker 2: already been paid under these tariffs? What would happen?
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's going to be the big question. You know,
Speaker 10: one hundred and fifty billion dollars is a lot of money.
Speaker 10: When you're talking about the amount of refunds that companies
Speaker 10: could seek if these tariffs are ruled illegal, it's going
Speaker 10: to be a messy situation. There are thousands and thousands
Speaker 10: of companies that would want to apply for these refunds.
Speaker 10: They essentially have to petition the government for these and
Speaker 10: the Customs Agency recently said that they're going to go
Speaker 10: to all electronic refunds starting in early February, so that
Speaker 10: could help expedite the process. But it's going to be
Speaker 10: an administrative nightmare really to try to return the funds
Speaker 10: back to back to the companies that paid them. Remember,
Speaker 10: many of them would have said to their foreign suppliers, hey,
Speaker 10: can you give me a discount. Many of them would
Speaker 10: have passed some of these cost increases along to consumers,
Speaker 10: and so it gets really kind of It gets really
Speaker 10: kind of complicated to see who actually paid for these tariffs.
Speaker 10: But the bottom line is the importer of record is
Speaker 10: the one that paid for them, and they're going to
Speaker 10: want their money back from Uncle Sam if the Supreme
Speaker 10: Court rules against Trump today.
Speaker 3: Okay, Brandon Murray, our trades are thank you very much.
Speaker 1: Us.
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up after this.
Speaker 2: Now, US President Donald Trump's tough talk about China and
Speaker 2: tariffs can be traced back, in large part to the
Speaker 2: economist Peter Navarro. He's a well known China corehawk. He's
Speaker 2: written books arguing that Beijing poses a threat to the
Speaker 2: US economy and its national security. Now, on this week's
Speaker 2: The Michelle Hussein Show, Navarro talks about US China relations
Speaker 2: and the upcoming Supreme Court ruling that could unravel many
Speaker 2: of President Trump's tariffs.
Speaker 5: Let's start with the case itself.
Speaker 11: The case is about whether you can use the emergency
Speaker 11: powers of the president to impose terror and it was.
Speaker 12: Your advice that he could. You you were clear that
Speaker 12: this was the way the IEEPA, this was the act.
Speaker 11: If the Supreme Court wants to essentially ratify the president's
Speaker 11: use of terrorists under AIPA. The law is on its
Speaker 11: side and our side, and the law is simply this.
Speaker 11: There's two salient points for your viewers.
Speaker 5: One is the.
Speaker 11: Question of whether a tariff is a tax, and in
Speaker 11: this context, in an emergency context, it's absolutely not.
Speaker 5: Teriffs. Tax revenues are incidental.
Speaker 11: Now. The other, the other issue is a language issue,
Speaker 11: is whether teriffs are legitimate form of import restriction, and
Speaker 11: of course they are. So the Supreme Court has has
Speaker 11: the ability now with respect to Plan B. Whatever Plan
Speaker 11: B is will not be as good as Plan A.
Speaker 11: So we have to recognize that this will be because.
Speaker 12: Doctor lots of companies will have to be compensated, won't
Speaker 12: they for m depends.
Speaker 5: On what the discs. Let's not go there until we
Speaker 5: have to go there.
Speaker 11: I mean, I'm very confident that we have a very
Speaker 11: very good chance. I mean, the laws on our side,
Speaker 11: the laws on our side here, So let's win that. Now,
Speaker 11: if we don't win, there's the whole alphabet number soup
Speaker 11: of things we've got. We've got the Section two thirty
Speaker 11: two's which we are using aggressively already on things like
Speaker 11: steel and aluminum, on lumber, on critical minerals on pharmaceuticals.
Speaker 11: We have that, we have the three oh one section
Speaker 11: which we used on China to impose tariffs, which we
Speaker 11: can do.
Speaker 5: On any country in the world that's cheating us. It
Speaker 5: is wrong.
Speaker 12: If this case goes against you, it will affect your standing,
Speaker 12: won't it in the White House? Because you are the
Speaker 12: one who was convinced that this route was the right
Speaker 12: one to go down with the bulk of tariff policy.
Speaker 12: Would you consider resigning if the case is lost?
Speaker 11: Of course, that's silly, I mean, and why I just like,
Speaker 11: I'm part of a trade team. We've got Scott Bessett
Speaker 11: as the Treasury Secretary, Howard Latnik is the Commerce Secretary,
Speaker 11: Jamison Career as the United States Trade Representative, and myself
Speaker 11: with a JD. Vance weying in. And the only person
Speaker 11: who matters is President Trump. Okay, So we are proceeding
Speaker 11: as the vision of how to go about this was
Speaker 11: crafted not by me, but by a group of people.
Speaker 11: We're doing exactly what we should be doing. We've anticipated contingencies,
Speaker 11: but we think that the most important thing to do
Speaker 11: now is focus on winning that case. As the Supreme Court,
Speaker 11: that's where we're at. If we lose, then we have
Speaker 11: a plan. B. It's not for me to talk about
Speaker 11: that to the world because I don't think we're going to.
Speaker 5: Lose, but if we do, we are certainly prepared.
Speaker 12: Imagine the refund bill, which Thomas saying could be as
Speaker 12: much as one hundred billion dollars.
Speaker 11: I think you're basically making the case why what we've
Speaker 11: done is a very good thing.
Speaker 5: I mean, think about it.
Speaker 11: Did from the Democrats who spent money, as we say
Speaker 11: on this side of the pond, like drunken sailors. Okay,
Speaker 11: just totally fiscally irresponsibile, like crazy stuff. And we were
Speaker 11: looking when we got into office at a fiscal cliff
Speaker 11: that was going to crush us with higher interest rates,
Speaker 11: inability to fancy and and this tariff revenue, if you
Speaker 11: just cost it out, is the difference between a dangerous
Speaker 11: deficit and a healthy pay down in our debt.
Speaker 12: We're coming towards towards the end of the conversation. And
Speaker 12: I quite often ask people what they do at the weekends,
Speaker 12: and I'm conscious, like, what are your weekends like work?
Speaker 11: When you look, it's like when you're working for the
Speaker 11: White House, It's it's like being at sea or being
Speaker 11: on deployment for the military.
Speaker 5: You're working every day.
Speaker 11: And I know better than most because I remember the
Speaker 11: last day from the first term and it was like,
Speaker 11: you know, you're living in well.
Speaker 5: There was some stuff we.
Speaker 11: Left on the table we could have should have got
Speaker 11: done and we didn't. And I try to tell people
Speaker 11: who there, it's like, look, the clock's ticking and we
Speaker 11: got a lot.
Speaker 5: Of work to do for the American people.
Speaker 11: Spend as much time as you can without it influencing
Speaker 11: or harming your family time.
Speaker 5: But this job is not a job. It's not a job.
Speaker 5: It's a mission. I mean, there's no I.
Speaker 11: Mean it's like, if this were just a job, I
Speaker 11: wouldn't be doing it because I'm at the retirement age
Speaker 11: and I could just as easily be working on my
Speaker 11: next book or whatever.
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond.
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Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
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Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe