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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Europe in politics are very fractioned,

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Speaker 1: very februl at the moment, and the UK vote to

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Speaker 1: leave it's going to make all of those problems much

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Speaker 1: much worse. When the FED rises rise, it has a

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Speaker 1: huge impact on the rest of it. It's actually very

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Speaker 1: negative for emerging markets. When the dollar goes up, the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world's indebtedness effectively goes up. That means

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Speaker 1: it's that much harder to pay back their debt. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance and

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Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good running everyone, Michael McKey and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane coming up a conversation. We look for pioneers

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Speaker 1: to go west, east, north, south, pioneers doing what they do,

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Speaker 1: which is raised money. We'll get to that in a

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Speaker 1: moment right now. The FOREX Brief Very Important FORKS Brief

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Speaker 1: brought you by Interactive Brokers, winner of FX Weeks two

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Speaker 1: training platform visit ib and ib k r dot com

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Speaker 1: slash for right. Let me get through this quickly because

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Speaker 1: David Wilson's more interesting this morning. In one of euro

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Speaker 1: one third team back over stronger one zero six on

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Speaker 1: your atturn to the big currency UH markets. Brazilian Real

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Speaker 1: with the festivities in Brazil, continues to strengthen three fifty

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Speaker 1: over the last number of days, strengthening to three point

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Speaker 1: four or five. Mr russef Or packing our bags. At

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Speaker 1: least that's one of the reports here. We'll see as

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Speaker 1: we go through the Brazilian UH day. Right now, all

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Speaker 1: I know is if I want to merge, I guess

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Speaker 1: i'd better check with Washington first. And and I'm in

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Speaker 1: emergers thrown out in the United Kingdom as well. Today

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Speaker 1: it's it's transatlantic. It's been that kind of a day.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Staples and Office deep out definitely front and center.

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Speaker 1: After they're proposed six point three down, they got hammered

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Speaker 1: right well. They did a federal judge block the combination

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Speaker 1: on anti trust grounds, and then the two largest office

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Speaker 1: supply retailer has decided they would not go ahead with

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Speaker 1: their deal. The US regulators had also objected to the merger.

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Speaker 1: Staples down fifteen percent and early trading and Office Depot

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Speaker 1: down thirty five and a half percent. They are the

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Speaker 1: two most active stocks in US trading Disney shares down

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Speaker 1: five percent. Quarterly earnings trailing analysts average estimate in the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg survey for the first time in five years. The

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Speaker 1: fiscal second quarter results revived Concerned that the prospects for

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Speaker 1: broadcast and cable television companies are worsening. Disney also closed

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Speaker 1: its video game unit, Infinity. And then you have Macy's

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Speaker 1: down eight and a half percent. The department store chain

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Speaker 1: cut its earnings forecast for this year by about fifteen

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Speaker 1: percent and reported fiscal first quarter revenue that missed analysts estimates.

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Speaker 1: Slower mall traffic and they drop in tours, spending hurt

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Speaker 1: sales and shares of other department store owners are falling

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Speaker 1: with Macy's, which kicked off the industry's first quarter earning season. Uh,

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Speaker 1: You've got Coal set to report tomorrow that stock down

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Speaker 1: three and a half percent. Nordstrom also coming tomorrow. There

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Speaker 1: shares down two percent, and J. C. Penny's results are

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Speaker 1: due on Friday and Penny shares down three and a

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Speaker 1: half percent. Gold stocks are higher along with the precious

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Speaker 1: metals price, which rose after Goldman Sacks slift a bullion

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Speaker 1: price forecast. Goldman also raised ratings on a couple of

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Speaker 1: mining stocks, one of them New Mountin Mining up two

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Speaker 1: percent in early trading, and the other kin Ross Gold

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Speaker 1: up four percent. Williams Company's up six percent. The natural

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Speaker 1: gas pipeline owner was named as a top pick at

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Speaker 1: Sanford Bernstein, which began coverage of the industry. Electronic arts

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Speaker 1: up eight and a half percent. Video Gamemaker's fistical fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter earnings and sales beat estimates. E S business is

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Speaker 1: holding up as consumer shift to digital services from prepackaged games.

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Speaker 1: Fossil Group, though down thirty four percent. The watchmaker and

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Speaker 1: retailer posted fiscal first quarter earnings and the way to

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Speaker 1: put it, well, it's not getting off to a good

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Speaker 1: start in in earning season, and that's for sure. Fossil

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Speaker 1: also forecast bigger declines and second quarter problem and rather

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Speaker 1: than analysts expected and cut full year forecast. And I'll

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Speaker 1: just mention Kanad uh stock just down a quarter of percent.

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Speaker 1: The New York Utilities sold six d and five million

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Speaker 1: dollars of stock, that's equipment, to a two point nine

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Speaker 1: percent stay. The proceeds will help finance Condad's nine hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy five million dollar investments in a gas pipeline

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Speaker 1: and storage joint venture. Thank you so much, David, Will

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee. The amount of money to raise, it's it's

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Speaker 1: jaw dropping. Senate in the House total just in Ohio

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Speaker 1: thirty four million dollars is one number from the last election.

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Speaker 1: Just for Senate races. It's gonna be good money. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be a very interesting down ballot race this year.

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Speaker 1: And it is this week perhaps the most awaited submit

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Speaker 1: meeting since Ronald Reagan went to It is Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: going to meet with Paul Ryan. Reagan said, tear down

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Speaker 1: this wall. Donald Trump says, build up this wall. Paul

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Speaker 1: Ryan says, not on my watch. Vin Weber is a

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Speaker 1: former member of Congress and now Mercury Public Affairs in Washington.

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Speaker 1: And you are a friend of the speaker. What do

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Speaker 1: you do this morning? What is he going to say

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Speaker 1: to Mr Trump? And what can Mr Trump say to

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Speaker 1: him that would possibly win his endorsement. Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: they don't know each other, and they they've only met

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Speaker 1: I think once, or spoken more than maybe a couple times.

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Speaker 1: So he's gonna try to get to no movement better.

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Speaker 1: I think that he will talk to him about the

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Speaker 1: overall tone of the campaign, try to encourage him to

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Speaker 1: put the whole tone of the campaign on a higher

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Speaker 1: level as befits a nominee of the party of Abraham

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Speaker 1: Lincoln and Ronald Reagan. Um. Then then we'll see how

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Speaker 1: far they get into some of the issues. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Trump has basically said he's not going to move on

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Speaker 1: some of these issues, and he's rejected Paul Ryan's policy agenda.

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Speaker 1: He didn't have to even say that, he decided he

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Speaker 1: was going to say that. So, you know, we'll see,

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Speaker 1: We'll see how far they get into it. But I

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Speaker 1: I doubt that it's going to be a very detailed

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Speaker 1: policy oriented discussion. I think maybe they'll touch on that,

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Speaker 1: but it's going to be more about the tone of

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Speaker 1: the campaign and sort of the the the image that

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Speaker 1: the party's gonna project going forward. So in a way,

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Speaker 1: this is this is a show meeting rather than one

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Speaker 1: that would accomplish something. Would well, they don't know each other,

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Speaker 1: it's a good acquaintance meeting. Would the speaker, Would the

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Speaker 1: speaker be willing to hold out, hold off not endorse

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Speaker 1: the Republican presidential candidate through the entire year. That I

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Speaker 1: very much doubt that that's that's really this is a

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Speaker 1: conviction call at the end of the day on Paul

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Speaker 1: Ryan's part, and he's got a couple of conflicting things

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Speaker 1: going on in his head. One, he has a conviction

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Speaker 1: politician and there's not a cynical bone in his body,

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Speaker 1: and he cares about issues like trade and immigration and

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Speaker 1: all the things that we can talk about. But he

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Speaker 1: also is a Republican Party leader, and he's gonna be

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Speaker 1: meeting with Trump with other Republican Party leaders, and he

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Speaker 1: has a certain obligation, I believe, to to at least

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Speaker 1: think about his role as a party leader. So I

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Speaker 1: think ultimately he will get he will endorse the Trump

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Speaker 1: ticket or Trump himself, but I don't know if that's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen on Thursday or Friday. And I think that

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Speaker 1: he's gonna have to get a little more comfortable Midwest politics.

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Speaker 1: Like nobody. Part of this is he's got to get reelected, right,

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Speaker 1: Come on, come on, that's that's Are we sure that

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Speaker 1: the primary? Where are you in the primary? Paul? Paul

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Speaker 1: has a primary from the right. It doesn't look today

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Speaker 1: as if it's a real threat to him, but you know,

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Speaker 1: we all have to pay attention to what happened with

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Speaker 1: Eric Canter, the former majority leader down in his district

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Speaker 1: in Richmond, when he was taken out in a primary.

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Speaker 1: That it doesn't look like that's the case out in Jamesville,

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin right now. But you know, in this environment, you

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Speaker 1: can't take anything for granted. But I want to reiterate,

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Speaker 1: Paul Ryan is not making a political calculation here. Primarily,

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Speaker 1: he's thinking about, as he said in his statement, he said,

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Speaker 1: we are the Party of Lincoln and Reagan and Jack

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Speaker 1: Kemp his mentor and my friend. And uh, he's thinking

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Speaker 1: about what party stands for and what his obligations are

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Speaker 1: to the people to him for leadership. Well, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: has made comments that are racist, misogynist, and religiously intolerant.

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Speaker 1: How can you wrap that into the Party of Reagan

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Speaker 1: and Lincoln. Well, I don't think it's very easy. Since

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Speaker 1: you ask the question pretty directly, I think it's I

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Speaker 1: think it's very tough. Um, I think that we're down

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Speaker 1: to whether we want to frame it this way or no.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be down to the lesser of two evils.

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Speaker 1: And what do you think is better to to to

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Speaker 1: accept Donald Trump with all of those flaws as the

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Speaker 1: as the the alternative to Hillary Clinton, or as many

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Speaker 1: conservatives are deciding, let up Clinton win and wait till

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Speaker 1: for four years and have somebody that acts our values.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if this is a real debate going on

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Speaker 1: among Republican leaders now and and and particularly among conservative

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Speaker 1: movement leaders, not necessarily party leaders, how do they write checks?

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Speaker 1: I want to come back and dive into this further.

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Speaker 1: Uh concon weever, but the basic idea to me is

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Speaker 1: the pioneers of George bush Boy, that system worked, Don

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Speaker 1: Evans and were you a pioneer. No, you were not

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Speaker 1: a pioneer, but you are the receiving end. Maybe a

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Speaker 1: pioneer benefits. You got to go on to a bunch

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Speaker 1: of guys and in a team effort, write a collective

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Speaker 1: set of checks. Do you have any vision that Mr

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Speaker 1: Trump can do that? Uh? Not yet. It's it's hard

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Speaker 1: to say. We have indications a little bit on both sides.

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Speaker 1: My friend Stan Hubbard from Minnesota, major fundraiser, television mogul

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Speaker 1: if you will, and a great guy by the way,

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Speaker 1: has decided he's gonna back Trump after having packed anti

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Speaker 1: Trump efforts through out the primers. He's got on board Trump.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand. I'm I'm hear from a number

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Speaker 1: of people that Paul Singer, one of the major fundraisers

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Speaker 1: in New York, is not for Trump and might be

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Speaker 1: looking at a third party effort. I don't know where

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Speaker 1: most of them are gonna go. And and added to

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Speaker 1: that is the fact that throughout the entire campaign, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump said that the people that that give money are

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Speaker 1: that it's a corrupt process. He campaigned against all sixteen

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Speaker 1: of his rivals by saying that they were financing their

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Speaker 1: their campaigns with corrupt money. Well, now apparently what he's saying,

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Speaker 1: all right, this money is corrupt if you were to

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Speaker 1: give it to me directly, but it's not correct you

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Speaker 1: give it to the Republican Party. Yeah, Okay, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: come back and talk about this. We're thrilled to bring

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Speaker 1: you Vin Weber on this most historic political moment. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's check in with Michael Barr and get the latest

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Speaker 1: world in national headlines. Mike, Tom, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Florida Senator Marco Rubio says you will live up to

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Speaker 1: a pledged to his party to support the presidential nominee.

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Speaker 1: But the former Republican presidential candidate says he still has

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Speaker 1: the same deep reservations about Donald Trump's ideas and conduct.

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Speaker 1: Rubio says Trump would be better served by having help

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Speaker 1: in the campaign from people who agree with his policies

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Speaker 1: and are enthusiastic about his candidacy. I thought it a

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Speaker 1: scheduled for this evening by the Brazilian Senate on whether

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Speaker 1: to oust President dil Marussef and start an impeachment trial.

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Speaker 1: Russef is accused of having illegally tapped state banks and

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Speaker 1: taken loans to cover up budget deficits. The death toll

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Speaker 1: from a car bombing and Baghdad in the neighborhood and

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Speaker 1: Soldier City has spiked to at least sixty three Global

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Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day, powered by our two

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Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus

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Speaker 1: from around the world. I am Michael Barr, Mike, Tom

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Speaker 1: and Michael, Thanks so much. Coming up Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene with Then Weber on Athens, Ohio, Clinton, Trump,

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Speaker 1: The Spell the Midwest. Bloomberg Surveillance market drivers brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Mercedes. Ben's outstanding offers are in Fuld bloom

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Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Karen Moscow. The Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: twenty one cent. Stuff prety four or forties six of

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Speaker 1: cents at twelve seventy twenty announced. That's a Bloomberg Business flash.

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Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Caramesco. Thank you very much. We're talking

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Speaker 1: with Vin Weber for Mercury Public Affairs form accomnishment from

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Speaker 1: the Great State of Minnesota. And I note that you

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Speaker 1: are friends with the Hubbards. I used worked for the Hubbards,

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Speaker 1: so I know Stamilely Hubbard. Well, UM, here's the question

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Speaker 1: that Tom is posing. Raising money? How do how do

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Speaker 1: you do that when, in Trump's case, you have no

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Speaker 1: formal fundraising operations set up and deliberately you've been running

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Speaker 1: a campaign that does not do a lot of outreach. Uh.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't have the big mailing lists and things like that. Uh.

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Speaker 1: There have been stories that you know, you've got to

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Speaker 1: raise a billion dollars. You even if you have really

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Speaker 1: good fundraisers, you can't do it in the three four

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Speaker 1: months he has. I I don't I don't know how

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Speaker 1: he does that. I mean, he waged the whole campaign,

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Speaker 1: as we were talking about a few minutes ago, railing

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Speaker 1: against contributions and bragging about the fact that he was

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Speaker 1: a self funder. Now we've pivoted and turned a hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty degrees and he's gonna he's gonna find his

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Speaker 1: campaign with outside contributions. I think in his case it

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Speaker 1: probably ends up being very, very large contributions. There was

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Speaker 1: a rumor that Carl Icon was going to put in

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Speaker 1: a hundred million dollars. I can't quite believe that, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of money. Um But there's a there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of complications on this to a lot of the

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Speaker 1: big Republican donors are are gonna look at this and say,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna put my money into saving the Congress um A,

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Speaker 1: because I'm not sure that Trump can win and be

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Speaker 1: because Trump made it so clear he doesn't want our

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Speaker 1: money anyway. So I think, you know, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a more complicated effort for Trump to actually get money

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Speaker 1: in to be spent on his behalf than for any

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Speaker 1: candidate in our history. I'm just speachless, Mike. Now, that

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Speaker 1: was why that was me. I was there's a eight

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Speaker 1: ways to go with Ben Webber here on that phrase

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Speaker 1: any time in history. I mean, you've been doing this

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Speaker 1: for a while, Mr Webber, I mean there's no comparison.

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Speaker 1: This is not Goldwater Miller sixty four. We're not going

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Speaker 1: to make a joke and go back to eighteen o two.

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Speaker 1: But the bottom line is We've never seen this in

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Speaker 1: our lifetimes. His candidacy is unique. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: Goldwater was was was an earthquake in their bolting party,

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Speaker 1: but it was a very definable earthquake. He shifted control

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Speaker 1: of the Republican Party from a moderate to liberal northeastern

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Speaker 1: Midwestern action to a very conservative South and Southwest access.

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Speaker 1: We knew exactly what was happening to the party. After

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Speaker 1: the debacle of ninety four, the party recalibrated somewhat closer

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Speaker 1: to the middle. Uh, and we did very well in

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Speaker 1: the in the sixty six off your elections and elected

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Speaker 1: Nixon president. The Trump is not like that. We wei

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Speaker 1: there's not a clear ideological or geographical shift. It's taking

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Speaker 1: place in the in the party and say it's a

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Speaker 1: populist movement and it's an anti established movement, but we

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Speaker 1: don't know how to define it. We've got a minute here.

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Speaker 1: What is your prescription for Mr Trump? If he's within

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Speaker 1: reaching distance in the Rust Belt? What's the Vin Webber

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Speaker 1: to do list for Mr Trump to narrow that gap

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Speaker 1: he's if if in the Rust Belt he can, He's

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Speaker 1: got to maintain his posture of an outsider. If I

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Speaker 1: were Trump, I would basically be saying to Paul Ryan

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Speaker 1: and other Republicans. Look, I want to be the leader

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Speaker 1: of the Republican Party. I want the Republican Party united

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Speaker 1: behind me. But I know I'm a different kind of candidate,

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Speaker 1: and I don't expect people to buy me a d

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Speaker 1: if you, as Ronald Reagan used to say, if you're

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Speaker 1: with me, that does not make you my enemy. I

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, I'm not asking you to buy everything that

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Speaker 1: I'm selling. I'm asking you the support that better than

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Speaker 1: the alternative. Wellson, Vin Webber, thank you so much, terrific.

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Speaker 1: Respective of course, uh, Vin Webber always from Minnesota and

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Speaker 1: a former car Gershman, I should point out trustee of

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Speaker 1: the German Martial Fund, which is pretty cool as well. Michael. Well,

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Speaker 1: we got about six months still the general election. Business

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Speaker 1: interests already preparing for a transition to the forty five president,

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Speaker 1: whomever he or she might be. Uh, what might have

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump presidency mean for the world of finance? Are

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Speaker 1: Nathan Hagar from Bloomberg in Washington is trying to figure

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Speaker 1: that out. If there's one thing you can predict about

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Speaker 1: a Donald Trump White House, it's that it'll be anything

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Speaker 1: but predictable. I like to be unpredictable. So it's a

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Speaker 1: line Trump's repeated on the campaign trail about how he'd

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Speaker 1: change America's foreign policy. But when it comes to economic policy,

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Speaker 1: uncertainty is toxic for financial markets. Mark Hamrick is the

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Speaker 1: senior economic analyst at bank rt dot com. This can

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Speaker 1: represent itself in a number of different ways, where one

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Speaker 1: day the proposal is one thing, and the next day

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Speaker 1: the proposal seems to be something much different. And we've

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Speaker 1: seen that kind of uncertainty in just the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days, with Trump suggesting he'd be willing to negotiate

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Speaker 1: on the national debt, telling CNN this week the U

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Speaker 1: s could never default because we print the money. If

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Speaker 1: we can buy back government debt at a discount, In

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Speaker 1: other words, of interest rates go up and we can

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Speaker 1: buy bonds back at a discount. If we are liquid

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Speaker 1: enough as a country, we should do that. But Hamrick

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Speaker 1: notes US treasuries are considered the safest debt in the world.

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Speaker 1: If Donald Trump as president were to do something to

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Speaker 1: impugne that integrity, than the integrity of the US financial

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Speaker 1: system has put at incredible risk. And how about Trump's

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Speaker 1: plan to put healty tariffs on imports from places like

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Speaker 1: China and Mexico. Hamrick says, not only could that spark

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Speaker 1: a trade war, but it also means incredibly more expensive

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Speaker 1: prices for consumers. And then there's Trump's signature issue, immigration,

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Speaker 1: in his promise to deport the estimated eleven million undocumented

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Speaker 1: people in this country. Bloomberg BNA reporter Laura Francis says

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Speaker 1: a recent report by the American Action Form shows that

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Speaker 1: would leave a significant hole in the labor force. If

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Speaker 1: every undocumented to the immigrant who is working in the

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Speaker 1: autonomy now were replaced by unemployed US born and multiple

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Speaker 1: foreign born residence, there would still be an overall shortfall

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Speaker 1: of four million workers. And an analysis from the Tax

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Speaker 1: Policy Center says Trump's tax plan could add up to

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Speaker 1: twelve trillion dollars to the already nineteen plus trillion national debt.

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Speaker 1: Trump's even injected uncertainty, they're telling ABC's this week, instead

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Speaker 1: of across the board tax cuts for everyone, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: the taxes for the rich will go up somewhat overall

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Speaker 1: bank rates. Mark Hamrick says this level of uncertainty is

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Speaker 1: something the markets and the voters could find tough to stomach.

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Speaker 1: And indeed, I think that is why people are cautious

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Speaker 1: about both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, why they have

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Speaker 1: such high disapproval ratings, is because there's a perception that

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Speaker 1: their words are not to be trusted. Nathan Hagar, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio in Washington, and Nathan, thank you so much from

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Speaker 1: New York Worldwide Umberg's surveillance. We kind of heat down

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