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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Good all right, here we go throwing.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting up to cash. We see most gamblers when

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Speaker 1: they go to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 1: this is the ultimate Kabai and we are pway.

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Speaker 3: And welcome to another edition of the Action Network NFL.

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am Chris Raybon, joined as always by Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: And forgive me if I sound a little crazy. I'm

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Speaker 3: getting over.

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Speaker 1: A cold, Sean. I mean I feel like CALLI finally

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Speaker 1: got me.

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Speaker 3: I was always wondering why people wore like hoodies and

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Speaker 3: in long leaves when it was like, you know, seventy

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Speaker 3: five eighty degrees. And then I was in the supermarket

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Speaker 3: the other day and I just was feeling so cold

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Speaker 3: from the ac And next thing I know, I'll come

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Speaker 3: down with a cold.

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Speaker 4: But I don't like a California And now talking about

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Speaker 4: being cold in a grocery store. When I lived in

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Speaker 4: New York, briefly like there'd be a blizzard and I'd

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Speaker 4: get in a grocery store and be like, oh thank God,

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Speaker 4: like this is nice and toasting here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, totally different.

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Speaker 3: Perspective when growing up, I never used to want to

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Speaker 3: wear hats like it would be.

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Speaker 1: It would be like, you know, thirty degrees in New York,

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Speaker 1: and my parents would be like, we're a hack.

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Speaker 3: My mom would wear a hat and I'd be like, no,

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Speaker 3: it's like, doesn't I don't have a hat for this outfit.

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Speaker 3: And I would be out in no hat and like

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Speaker 3: the dead of winter, and I'd be fine, and I'll

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Speaker 3: come here, been here not longer than like a month.

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Speaker 3: And of course, but throwback Thursday, I see you got

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Speaker 3: your Chicago Bears hat on.

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Speaker 1: I guess you got to bring out a new hat

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Speaker 1: for every show.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, use the bet we're not going to be talking

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Speaker 4: about that many specific players, So this is a good

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Speaker 4: time to get rid of the Bears hat. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: so whose jersey is that? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I got the Eric Dickerson nineteen eighty five Rams jersey on.

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Speaker 3: So so Dickerson used to like cut his jersey up

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Speaker 3: and like cut it at the neck for extra ventilation.

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Speaker 3: And they actually make it with the little cut right

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Speaker 3: at the V. Because remember when the NFL sign would

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Speaker 3: be remember this is eighty five, So they didn't start

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Speaker 3: wearing the NFL on the on the little V neck

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Speaker 3: until I think it was ninety two, ninety two or

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Speaker 3: ninety three, so like he has a little cut right here,

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Speaker 3: so I like, I like the detail that Michel.

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Speaker 1: And that's it. So I brought this out, you know,

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Speaker 1: in honor of La you know.

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Speaker 3: But we got the Fantasy one on one pod today,

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Speaker 3: So that means Sean and I will give you guys

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Speaker 3: one hundred and one ways not to suck, or more specifically,

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Speaker 3: we're just gonna kind of go through kind of everything

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Speaker 3: you need to know from fantasy, from a fantasy perspective

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Speaker 3: if you've never really played before, but even if you

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Speaker 3: have obviously you know, we know we have a lot

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Speaker 3: of hardcore listeners. I think you'll gain a lot from

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Speaker 3: this because we're gonna try to We're not gonna dumb

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Speaker 3: anything down, but we're gonna kind of talk to you

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Speaker 3: guys as if you're kind of coming from a ground point.

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Speaker 3: So we'll start really basic, but also break down some

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Speaker 3: of the more advanced, you know, techniques and strategies that

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Speaker 3: come come off that. So this is going to be

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Speaker 3: a really cool episode. We do this every year. Excited

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Speaker 3: to do this one. So we'll start with a big

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Speaker 3: picture approach. We'll get into you know, the flex and

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Speaker 3: draft positions and ceilings and floors and rankings and ADP

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Speaker 3: and all that good stuff, all those those those kind

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Speaker 3: of buzzwords that you guys here is talking about all

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Speaker 3: the time, bus sleepers, all that stuff. So it's hot

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Speaker 3: right in.

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Speaker 4: So what would you little maniacs like to do first?

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Speaker 1: Our big picture approach to fantasy drafting?

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Speaker 3: When we when we talk about fantasy drafting, and it's

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Speaker 3: really all about the running back early, right, Like, running

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Speaker 3: backs are kind of almost any league format. They're just

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Speaker 3: the most valuable players, almost by default, because there's just

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Speaker 3: not many of them that truly play a feature role

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Speaker 3: in their offense.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think big picture, running backs are the most

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Speaker 4: important position. And this has been something that's evolved ever

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Speaker 4: since I started playing fans football.

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Speaker 1: Back in nineteen ninety eight.

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Speaker 4: You had eleven running backs that year with three hundred

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Speaker 4: and more carries, twenty rush for over one thousand yards.

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Speaker 4: Look back at last year twenty twenty, there were only

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Speaker 4: two running backs who saw three hundred plus carries and

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Speaker 4: only nine rush for one thousand plus yards. So it's

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Speaker 4: definitely more of a running back by committee era. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I think coaches have wised up to limiting players' workloads,

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Speaker 4: keeping them fresh, getting the most out of every player.

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Speaker 4: So it does make sense that the league would sort

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Speaker 4: of evolve. But that makes those running backs, those Christian McCaffrey's,

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Speaker 4: those Dalvin Cooks, even more valuable because they're the only

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Speaker 4: guys that you can bank on twenty plus touches per

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Speaker 4: week n plus. You know, the running back position itself

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Speaker 4: is pretty fragile. It's each workhorse back. You know, they

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Speaker 4: get tackled fifteen to twenty times a game, so it's

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Speaker 4: they're more likely to get hurt. They're typically you know,

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Speaker 4: the smallest framed body on the field, so it's just

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Speaker 4: as important to get their backups too, because whenever running

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Speaker 4: back goes down, the next man up is usually you know,

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Speaker 4: like a running back two value. So I think that

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Speaker 4: when you enter a draft, you know, you got to

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Speaker 4: get your running backs early, in the middle of the draft,

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Speaker 4: and late, Like you can't walk away at the draft

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Speaker 4: with thin running backs. But you know, overall, you know,

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Speaker 4: quarterback is a pretty easy position to draft. It's it's robust.

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Speaker 4: We have a lot of great quarterbacks in this day

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Speaker 4: and age, so it's really easy to get a quarterback late,

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Speaker 4: so you don't really needed to draft a quarterback early.

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Speaker 4: And then you know, wide receiver, same thing. It's it's robust.

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Speaker 4: You need to walk away with a lot of receivers,

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Speaker 4: but there's a lot out there right now. And then

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Speaker 4: tight end especially you know, with Travis Kelcey still in

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Speaker 4: his prime, guys like that, you definitely want to get early.

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Speaker 4: So position scarcity, which we could talk about a little

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Speaker 4: bit later on, but that's a very important part when

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Speaker 4: it comes to drafting, is you know you're getting guys

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Speaker 4: before there's a huge drop off at a position. So

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Speaker 4: that's my big overall takeaway for like how I approach drafts.

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Speaker 4: I was in an unorthodox league. It was my dad's

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Speaker 4: league with his buddies, and I grew up watching him

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Speaker 4: play in that and it wasn't until nineteen ninety eight

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Speaker 4: before I was able to join that league, so I

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Speaker 4: was thrown right into the fire. You know, my dad

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Speaker 4: would bust into my bedroom, catch me reading fantasy fotball

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Speaker 4: magazines and yell at me and say go back to

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Speaker 4: junior homework, like you're not going to get a career

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Speaker 4: in that. So you know, That's how this passion I

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Speaker 4: have for fantasy started.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Shautier Pops, by the way, I know, he's a

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Speaker 3: listener at a pod and one of my favorite guests,

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Speaker 3: so we have to have him back on at.

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Speaker 1: Some point for sure.

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Speaker 3: For sure, it's a passing week. Nowadays, everyone's in a shotgun.

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Speaker 3: And so the reason we talk running backs as kind

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Speaker 3: of like the most important, the most valuable part of

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Speaker 3: a draft is because they're rare.

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Speaker 1: Feature backs are even rare.

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Speaker 3: If you kind of miss on a wide receiver, even

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Speaker 3: like let's say you're drafting wide receivers third, fourth, and

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Speaker 3: fifth rounds, because he drafted running backs in the first two,

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Speaker 3: you don't have to nail them. Your wide receiver one

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Speaker 3: could be a wide receiver two or three. And by

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Speaker 3: the way, I guess even that is something we should

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Speaker 3: talk about. So when we you know, there's two ways

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Speaker 3: we kind of refer to to players. You know, a

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Speaker 3: wide receiver one generally means like a starting number one

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Speaker 3: wide receiver slot wide receiver. So if you're in a

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Speaker 3: twelve team league, that a wide receiver one would generally

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Speaker 3: be a wide receiver that you can expect to finish,

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Speaker 3: you know, in the top twelve over the course of

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Speaker 3: the season, or you know, in a given week, a

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Speaker 3: wide receiver two would be you know that twelve to

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Speaker 3: thirteen to twenty four range, wide receiver three, twenty five

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Speaker 3: to thirty six.

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Speaker 1: Et cetera.

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Speaker 3: So that's usually what we mean while we're talking like

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Speaker 3: wide receiver one. You know, running back one, same thing.

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Speaker 3: Running back one would be you know, one through twelve.

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Speaker 3: You know, if you're in a ten team league, you

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Speaker 3: know it's one through ten. But generally a starter in

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Speaker 3: that first slot is an RB one, a starter in

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Speaker 3: that second slot to RB two, so on and so forth.

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Speaker 3: But and something we also didn't even hit on with

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Speaker 3: running backs in regard to the other positions that I

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Speaker 3: think is is really important and probably one of the

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Speaker 3: hardest things to project, which is why we kind of,

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Speaker 3: I know, we both kind of stick to like a

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Speaker 3: pretty rigid median games played projection for for each position,

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Speaker 3: but it does for between running backs and other positions

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Speaker 3: the most. Whereas running backs, you know, in the normal

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Speaker 3: sixteen game season, a running back would miss the medium

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Speaker 3: would be correct me if I'm wrong about two to

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Speaker 3: three games, whereas for other positions, the media miss games

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Speaker 3: for like a guy who's a starter and not getting

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Speaker 3: you know, scratched is usually like one game. Like you

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Speaker 3: can usually project fifteen games for you know, quarterback, receiver,

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Speaker 3: tight end, running back usually in at four fourteen point

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Speaker 3: five range.

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Speaker 4: Exactly, And now that we have an extra game, that's

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Speaker 4: just going to get amplified even more running backs. I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure how you're projecting games played, but I have

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Speaker 4: you know, sort of the same ratio. So running backs definitely,

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Speaker 4: you know, typically missed two to three games. But that's

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Speaker 4: why I kind of say that the backup running backs

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Speaker 4: are getting even more valuable because they're being used more

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Speaker 4: even when the running backs healthy, and now with the

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Speaker 4: extra game, it's more likely they're going to have an

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Speaker 4: extra game of you know, being a starter. So that's

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Speaker 4: why I like stashing a bunch of like backup high

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Speaker 4: upside backup running backs.

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Speaker 1: It's like, look at a.

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Speaker 3: Guy like Christian McCaffrey last year, you know, had never

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Speaker 3: really miss games, and all of a sudden, you know,

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Speaker 3: he barely plays in any games, and a lot of

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Speaker 3: people took him with that number one pick, you know,

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Speaker 3: they took him first in their draft, and so you

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Speaker 3: can you can never relax at the running back position,

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Speaker 3: and that's why they're so important, and that's why you know,

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Speaker 3: even if you draft two good ones and you feel

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Speaker 3: like your starting lineup is good, that doesn't mean you

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Speaker 3: just forget about the position a lot of times, especially

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Speaker 3: if you're like a good drafter who trusts in your

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Speaker 3: ability to take a quarterback lead or a tight end lead,

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Speaker 3: or find some value at wide receiver, which is always

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Speaker 3: possible given.

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Speaker 1: How many they are.

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Speaker 3: A lot of times I know I will draft maybe

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Speaker 3: like my first backup running back before I've even filled

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Speaker 3: out my starting line up, especially before my first quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Is that something you also have done? Yeah, definitely, just because,

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Speaker 4: like I said, they're so valuable. Just building your running

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Speaker 4: back core is critical to your fancy team.

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Speaker 3: And speaking of streaming, I think this is a good

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Speaker 3: time to kind of explain what that means, and I'll

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Speaker 3: do it in the context of startable, which I think

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Speaker 3: is the way I like to think about each position.

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Speaker 3: You know, with running backs, if you draft of RB one,

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Speaker 3: a guy who's in that top twelve ranking wise, you're

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Speaker 3: probably gonna start him every week, so he's probably going

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Speaker 3: to be a feature back, a guy who can stay

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Speaker 3: on the field on third downs like your mcaff or

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Speaker 3: your cook guys like that, and you're gonna expect about,

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Speaker 3: you know, thirteen to fourteen to fifteen startable game because

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Speaker 3: you're the only non startable weeks you're gonna have are

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Speaker 3: the ones, you know.

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Speaker 1: Where he gets hurt.

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Speaker 3: Now, you can kind of apply that to every position.

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Speaker 3: You're just trying to kind of maximize the amount of

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Speaker 3: startable games on your roster now because in most weeks

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Speaker 3: start one quarterback. That's usually ten, twelve, fourteen quarterbacks depending

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Speaker 3: on your weak side, that are needed to start. And

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Speaker 3: even if you're in a two quarterback league, you still

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Speaker 3: need less starters than there are, you know, starting games

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Speaker 3: than there are quarterbacks in the league. So explained in

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Speaker 3: that context like streaming and why it works so well

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Speaker 3: at quarterback and the positions where you only have to

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Speaker 3: start one at AKA tight end kicker defense.

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Speaker 1: That's a great question.

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Speaker 4: And you know, if I were to wait at quarterback

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Speaker 4: and let's say a draft a guy like Joe Burrow

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Speaker 4: later in the draft.

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Speaker 1: You know he's a low.

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Speaker 4: End QB one, but you know, a week to week

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Speaker 4: the matchups change, he could have a really tough matchup.

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Speaker 4: Let's say against the Ravens, you know, another quarterback that

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Speaker 4: might be on the waiver wire, like a Matt Ryan,

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Speaker 4: has a better matchup and he's ranked higher, so you

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Speaker 4: would actually pick up Matt Ryan that week and play

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Speaker 4: him over Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I'm.

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Speaker 4: Saying, when you stream at quarterback, you're essentially using the

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Speaker 4: entire waver wire and taking the best projected quarterback that

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Speaker 4: week and playing him. And it's a very solid strategy.

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Speaker 4: And I have an article that I put out every

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Speaker 4: week where I talk about my best streaming quarterback. Every year,

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Speaker 4: I can usually produce like the number six to number

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Speaker 4: eighth quarterback just by combining all seventeen or sixteen games

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Speaker 4: using guys that I find on the waiver wire. So

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Speaker 4: that's why I mean that, you know, the quarterback position

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Speaker 4: is so robust and you're able to kind of just

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Speaker 4: pluck guys from the waiver war each week and have

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Speaker 4: a productive quarterback, sort of like a Frankenstein quarterback, I

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Speaker 4: like could call it. And you can't do that really

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Speaker 4: at any other position. You know, running back, you can't

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Speaker 4: do that. Wide receiver, you can't do that tight end.

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Speaker 4: You definitely can't do that. So That's why a quarterback,

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Speaker 4: especially you see people talking about just punting quarterback altogether

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Speaker 4: because they're gonna stream it. That's what I'm referring to.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, It's all about value relative to the amount

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Speaker 3: of draft capital you're going to spend on a position.

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Speaker 1: So even though you know you.

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Speaker 3: May look at a Patrick Mahomes, you may look at

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Speaker 3: a Kyler Murray, a Josh Allen and say, Okay, I'm

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Speaker 3: going to start these guys every week, that doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 3: mean that you know, their third, fourth, fifth round draft

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Speaker 3: cost is worth it relative to getting you know, another

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Speaker 3: double digit like you know, ten eleven, twelve, thirteen, startauble

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Speaker 3: games of high end production from a running back or

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Speaker 3: from a wide receiver for that matter, because you can

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Speaker 3: kind of put together a mid range to high end

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Speaker 3: starter one quarterback league just by kind of drafting a

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Speaker 3: guy that maybe has a good schedule for week one, two,

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Speaker 3: maybe three, and then you kind of pick up and

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Speaker 3: add and drop guys from there. You use your roster

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Speaker 3: and your bench spots to your advantage. And also quarterback

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Speaker 3: scoring is just generally closer together and it's more predictable.

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Speaker 1: So well, every year there's usually a quarterback or two

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Speaker 1: that just like blows everyone out the water.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't mean you're you're gonna be able to predict

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Speaker 3: that guy before the season starts and that that guy's

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Speaker 3: going to stay healthy for all sixteen games. You know,

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Speaker 3: we saw our seventeen now, but you know we saw

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes, you know, a couple of years ago. He

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Speaker 3: missed some games. You know, So you know, it's never

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Speaker 3: a guarantee. At running back year, there's gonna be so

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Speaker 3: much more demand for those players. They'll probably already be

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Speaker 3: on a roster just to crapshoot, you know.

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Speaker 1: So you do have to.

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Speaker 3: Draft some high upside backup running backs, but they're not

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Speaker 3: just going to necessarily be available for the taking. And

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Speaker 3: if they are, people are gonna be willing to spend

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Speaker 3: a lot more of their waiver budget on them, or

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Speaker 3: use their waiver priority or whatever.

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Speaker 1: It may be. It's just supplying to man. Of course.

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Speaker 3: With kicker and defense, same concept applies. Never draft those

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Speaker 3: guys before the last two rounds if your league does

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Speaker 3: does have them.

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Speaker 4: One of my favorite tips to give is instead of

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Speaker 4: drafting a kicker defense in your draft. Again, those are

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Speaker 4: things that you can stream in season. Just like I

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Speaker 4: said about quarterback draft two more backup running backs. You know,

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Speaker 4: when you're drafting there's still might be another preseason game.

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Speaker 4: You know, starting running back can tweak his ankle, you

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Speaker 4: never know, and you can use those guys immediately. I

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Speaker 4: did that a couple of seasons ago with James Connor

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Speaker 4: backing up LiveOn Bell and the Steelers. You know, there

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Speaker 4: was uncertainty there. Instead of drafting a kicker, I just

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Speaker 4: took a lottery ticket on James Connor and he ended

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Speaker 4: up being, you know, a league winner. So use those

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Speaker 4: last two picks on just a lottery ticket running back

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Speaker 4: as opposed to a kicker defense that you can just

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Speaker 4: stream each week anyway.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I love that tip so much because there's so

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Speaker 3: many things you can do with that, because most drafts

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Speaker 3: are not happening like a day before the season. Most

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Speaker 3: drafts are happening like a week or two at least.

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Speaker 3: Even if you kind of you just use those spots

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Speaker 3: on extra running backs, you may be able to work

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Speaker 3: out like a trade or something where you're okay partying

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Speaker 3: with let's say the fourth running back you drafted in

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Speaker 3: a package and using that like extra fifth and sixth

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Speaker 3: back that you may have not drafted if you had

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Speaker 3: or a sixth or seventh back that you may have

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Speaker 3: not drafted if you had drafted a kicker or a defense.

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Speaker 3: Come draft time, you may be able to now use

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Speaker 3: that guy as your fifth running back because there might

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Speaker 3: not be that much separation between like, you know, the

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Speaker 3: sixtieth ranked running back and the seventy fifth ranked running back,

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Speaker 3: So you'll always be able to find a kicker kind

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Speaker 3: of defense on the waiver wire. So that is one

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Speaker 3: of the that's one of the best tips. That's really

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Speaker 3: it as it comes in terms of a big picture strategy. It's,

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Speaker 3: you know, running backs are the most valuable just because

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Speaker 3: they're the most scarce. The positions where you start one

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Speaker 3: are by are inherently less valuable. But the only reason

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Speaker 3: we kind of tight end is a little more valuable

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Speaker 3: than quarterback, even though usually start one, is because there's

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Speaker 3: just such a separation between the studs like a Kelsey,

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Speaker 3: from that next tier of guys where it can still

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Speaker 3: be a crapshoot. Even if you have, like you know,

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Speaker 3: a hockensent Er, a Goddard or a fan like those

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Speaker 3: guys can still have a lot of weeks that are

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Speaker 3: not technically startable, that you'll probably still start them because

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Speaker 3: you don't have a better option. Anyway, you can come

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Speaker 3: a lot closer to replicating as crazy as it sounds

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Speaker 3: like a Patrick Mahomes, then you can a Travis Kelcey

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Speaker 3: just by streaming exactly.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the next kind of big thing,

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Speaker 3: you know, big topic, which is something that most leagues

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Speaker 3: are going to have nowadays.

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Speaker 1: I don't know many without one. But if your league.

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Speaker 3: Doesn't have one, for for some reason, I think that

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Speaker 3: the concepts and the positional value still apply, but it's

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Speaker 3: the flex position, and the flex is usually you're going

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Speaker 3: to be able to start anyone but a quarterback, so

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Speaker 3: a running back, wide receiver, or a tight end.

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Speaker 1: I think this is where you can kind.

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Speaker 3: Of make or break your early round to mid round

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Speaker 3: draft strategy and results is you know how you kind

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Speaker 3: of draft that flex position, So how do you kind

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Speaker 3: of go about looking at that flex position both in

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Speaker 3: the draft and then to prepare for like what you're going.

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Speaker 1: To do on a week to week basis.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't really consider a draft strategy. I'm trying

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Speaker 4: to load up my bench as much as possible. So,

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Speaker 4: like I said, I'm getting just running backs with massive

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Speaker 4: upside wide receivers I can plug in play. So like

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Speaker 4: I'm already kind of handling this in my draft by

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Speaker 4: building out my bench pretty well. It's definitely a week

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Speaker 4: to week decision, and that's why I recommend you know,

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Speaker 4: decide who you're starting your flex week one by looking

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Speaker 4: at our flex rankings, our projections. That's the decision you

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Speaker 4: make in season as opposed to anything I have, Like

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Speaker 4: you know, a specific flex strategy in a draft. I

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Speaker 4: just think you should be building out your bench anyway,

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Speaker 4: and in turn, you know you're gonna have a lot

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Speaker 4: of options for your flex week tweek.

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Speaker 3: I do think it's a little bit in draft strategy,

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Speaker 3: but just coming back more to what I was saying

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Speaker 3: before about like don't be afraid to draft like your

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Speaker 3: third or fourth running back before you have a quarterback

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Speaker 3: or something like that. You're exactly right, but I do

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Speaker 3: consider it something you're doing on draft day because like

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Speaker 3: some people, I think some people would just look to

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Speaker 3: like fill the flex spot with like one guy. And

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Speaker 3: what you're saying is exactly right. It's like it's gonna

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Speaker 3: change every week. And that's also related to how your

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Speaker 3: other positions are ranked every week. So just because you

437
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 3: draft two running backs and three wide receivers and their flex,

438
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 3: doesn't mean you're gonna want to start those players in

439
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 3: that they're gonna be ranked in that order every week.

440
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 3: Sometimes you may have four wide receivers ranked above your

441
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 3: top three running backs or top you know, ahead of

442
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 3: your third running back, and then you'd start a receiver

443
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 3: in the flex that week or something like that. So

444
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 3: that's why your bench is important. That's why waiting on

445
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 3: quarterback is important. It also is going to depend on

446
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 3: your scoring system because in a standard league that doesn't

447
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,680
Speaker 3: award any points per reception, I think that's where you're

448
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 3: most likely to need more running backs in that flex position.

449
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 3: You're gonna end up with more running backs in that

450
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 3: flex position. Running Backs are going to give you a

451
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: more consistent like floor if you can guarantee that they're

452
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 3: gonna get you know, fifteen plus touches in a game.

453
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 3: But what usually happened, there's just not a lot enough

454
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,360
Speaker 3: of those to go around. So half PPR full PPR

455
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 3: especially a lot of times your number you know, if

456
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 3: you start three wide receivers, your number four wide receiver

457
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 3: is actually going to be very important as well, because

458
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: that may be your flex starter more often than not.

459
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 4: The way I would describe the flex position is like

460
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 4: your top bench player that week, running backs offer the

461
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 4: highest floor, and specifically, if your bench is full of

462
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: just upside guys like I'm talking about, where they might

463
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 4: not have weak tweak value, I could see, you know,

464
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 4: in a PPR league drafting a high floor running back

465
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 4: like a JD. Mcisswick just as a stop gap because

466
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 4: eventually we're gonna have a lot of bye weeks where

467
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 4: there's not gonna be a lot of playable players. So

468
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 4: it's nice to have just a high floor player like

469
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 4: that on your bench that you could just plug in

470
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 4: and you know, you know, he's not gonna win your

471
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 4: week and put up a huge score, but he'll at

472
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 4: least give you a handful of points. So I think

473
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 4: when you when you construct your bench, you do want

474
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 4: like some high floor guys that in the event that

475
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 4: you you don't have any options, you have a guy

476
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 4: that you could just plug in at least play. But overall,

477
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 4: I do think the flex is more of just like

478
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 4: your top bench player that week. So that's that's kind

479
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 4: of how I'm constructing my bench anyway, is thinking about

480
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,880
Speaker 4: that flex position as sort of that top bench player

481
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 4: that week.

482
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 3: And we'll get into a little more on like how

483
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 3: to draft, like you know which guys to draft, which

484
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 3: is obviously, you know, one of the most important things.

485
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 3: It's not just about you know, you're not picking positions,

486
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 3: you're picking players, but just more generally, I would say

487
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 3: that you know, running backs, it's it's almost all volume.

488
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 3: You know, running backs are going to have good matchups

489
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 3: in a given week, they're gonna have bad ones. But

490
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 3: when a running back has a good or bad matchup,

491
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 3: it's not always just a week run defense or a

492
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: bad matchup is a strong run defense. A lot of

493
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 3: times it's just okay, this running backs team is favored.

494
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 3: That means the game script is going to be positive

495
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,880
Speaker 3: and he'll be allowed to get twenty carries on top

496
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 3: of his two to three to four receptions instead of

497
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 3: a game where his teammate project to be trailing, where

498
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 3: he might only get ten carries.

499
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: Along with those you know, two to four catches.

500
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 3: So you know, running back home favorite situations where the

501
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 3: team is going to win. That's when some of those

502
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 3: fringe guys are going to be valuable matchup wise. But

503
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 3: it's a luxury to have like running backs to choose

504
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 3: between on your roster that you can kind of pick

505
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 3: apart matchups, whereas it's going to be a lot easier

506
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 3: to do for quarterbacks wide receivers, not as much as

507
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 3: rioting on every pick for quarterback wide receiver, which just

508
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 3: goes back to why running backs are so valuable.

509
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: Oh I hit that horn, babe, let's dance.

510
00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 3: I want to talk about something that I think a

511
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: lot of people, especially new but even even experienced drafters

512
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 3: kind of mull over it and think about and kind

513
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 3: of wonder, how, you know, how it affect how it's

514
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 3: gonna affect their draft. And that's draft position, especially in

515
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: the first round. Now, I'm of the opinion that I

516
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 3: think people spend a way too much time worrying about

517
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,679
Speaker 3: their first and second round picks.

518
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: Like, I don't know, I don't know if you agree

519
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: on it.

520
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I definitely agree with you specifically, Like people

521
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 4: love to get the first pick, right, Every draft is different,

522
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 4: but I think every draft position you get, you're gonna

523
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 4: have a different type of draft. And if you have

524
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 4: the first pick, you're probably taking Christian McCaffrey. But like

525
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 4: we saw last year, you did you mention it he

526
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 4: got hurt. You're not guaranteed to get the top scoring

527
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 4: player that year. So I actually prefer to be in

528
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 4: the middle of the draft, not necessarily because of a

529
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 4: specific player. I just like having five to six picks

530
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 4: between me and the next pick, Like all the time,

531
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 4: I think you get a better sense on like which

532
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 4: guys are going to be there for you. So when

533
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 4: you have the first pick, you know it usually takes

534
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 4: twenty four picks for to come back to you. It's

535
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 4: really hard to draft that way because you don't know

536
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 4: if certain position is going to go on a run

537
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 4: or if the player you really like is going to

538
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 4: be there. So I feel like when you have the

539
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 4: first pick or the last pick, when you're on the ends,

540
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 4: you have to reach more. You have to take the

541
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 4: player that you really don't think is going to make

542
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 4: it back to you, So you have to draft the

543
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 4: guy maybe earlier than you would hope. Where's the middle draft.

544
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 4: I think you just get the most flexibility and you're

545
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 4: able to kind of carve out the team that you want.

546
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 4: So I prefer to be in the middle. But in

547
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 4: the end, like, just give me any draft pick, I'll

548
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 4: figure it out from there. I don't really care. Like

549
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 4: you said, people worry about the first few rounds at

550
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 4: any draft position. I think I can, you know, pick

551
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 4: a winning team, but each position itself you kind of

552
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 4: have a different draft plan.

553
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 3: It's important to know, especially you know, I think everyone

554
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 3: should be reminded of this, but it's especially important if

555
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 3: you're kind of newer to remember that you will not

556
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: when you're draft in the first few rounds, but you

557
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 3: can lose it. So the first through rounds of the draft,

558
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: there's less of a wide range of outcomes amongst the

559
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 3: players that are gonna be taken. You know, it's generally

560
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: gonna be the top stars at every position, with a

561
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: few more running backs probably mixed in. What's really gonna

562
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 3: happen is that you're either gonna you're gonna lose it

563
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: unintentionally or you know, Wes, it's not gonna be your fault,

564
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 3: but guys are just gonna get hurt and sometimes I

565
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 3: could just sink you. So I think the biggest thing

566
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: is to not like obsess about the first few rounds

567
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 3: because if you look at it, like, Okay, you have

568
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: a limited amount of you know, time, energy, analysis, whatever,

569
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 3: that you're gonna put into your draft, and you're spending

570
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: a disproportionate amount of time on those first few rounds,

571
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 3: that is not going to maximize your chances of winning

572
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 3: because the most important picks are going to come in

573
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 3: the middle to the late rounds. Because that's gonna everyone's

574
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 3: gonna get some combination of great players in the first

575
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 3: like three four rounds, right, So it's how do you

576
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 3: now build around that? Because like there's nothing wrong with

577
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 3: taking like a Travis Kelcey instead of a running back

578
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 3: early or or something like that. What's really gonna happen is, now,

579
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 3: how do you build that team around that combination of

580
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 3: players that you've frozen the first four rounds. Don't like,

581
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 3: just because you got two running backs doesn't mean you

582
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: just like ignore running back. That could be an example

583
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 3: of how you could lose your draft in the middle

584
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: rounds or or you know, just because you got four

585
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,239
Speaker 3: wide receivers or something like that. Now you have to

586
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 3: really make sure you draft the right combination of upside

587
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 3: backs in the middle rounds or whatever.

588
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: It may be.

589
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: The middle to the end is going to be so

590
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: much more important, So I wouldn't even like obsess about it.

591
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: It's like you're most most of the time, you're gonna

592
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: be wrong straight up, just by somebody getting hurt and everyone.

593
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 3: You know, there will be a kind of couple of

594
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: like obvious guys that you should probably not draft in

595
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 3: those early rounds, like guys that have busts written all

596
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 3: over them, you know. Sean kind of trademarked the frozen

597
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: pond running back tier, which is where you get past

598
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 3: like those kind of locks at running back, maybe those

599
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 3: first top ten, top twelve, maybe fifteen running backs, and

600
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 3: then you're kind of into that, you know, number two

601
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 3: running back range, and there's guys that only have like

602
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 3: one season of success or you know, they might start

603
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 3: for the whole year, they might not, and you know,

604
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: people start looking at positional scarcity and right me so

605
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 3: because we just told that was one of the first

606
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: things we talked about.

607
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 1: But it's still is.

608
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 3: Everyone has a value, and you kind of value it

609
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 3: based on Like there's something called value based drafting where

610
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: you just kind of look at whatever your starting lineup

611
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 3: requirement is.

612
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: You look at the lowest starters.

613
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 3: If you're starting two running backs in a twelve team league,

614
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 3: that what's that twenty fourth running back?

615
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: How much? How many points does he project to score?

616
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 3: Okay, how does all the how do all the other

617
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 3: running backs compare to that being drafted ahead of him?

618
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 3: So you know, a running back projected to score like,

619
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 3: you know, twenty more points than the baseline running back,

620
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 3: we get a plus twenty and then you do the

621
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: same for every position.

622
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 1: You can kind of rank them that way.

623
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 3: That's one of the basic ways that we kind of

624
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 3: rank players you know, regardless of position, and for our

625
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: flex rankings, for our you know.

626
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: Top one hundred or whatever. Overall, you just kind of

627
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 1: look at that.

628
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 3: So it's important not to go take it too far

629
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: and say, okay, it really just it's important to be

630
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 3: able to recognize, like, okay, here's a spot where I'm

631
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 3: not going to reach on a player just because he's

632
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 3: at a certain position. Like whatever combination of guys you

633
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 3: come out of those first three four rounds with, you're

634
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 3: not going to really win your draft because everyone's getting

635
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 3: you know, three or four really good players. So with

636
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: that being said, don't worry about those first four picks,

637
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 3: and don't really worry about like your draft position. Like

638
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 3: Sean said, like there's advantages to every one of them.

639
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 3: Like draft early, you get the number one pick, you

640
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: get three of the top twenty five picks. But you know, me,

641
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 3: I actually like drafting towards the end more so middle

642
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,479
Speaker 3: to the end, not right at the turn of like

643
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 3: you know, eleven or twelve, thirteen or whatever, but maybe

644
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: like the tenth pick in the twelfth team league. So

645
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 3: like I kind of have some of the decisions made

646
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: for me early on. Maybe some people make mistakes guys fall.

647
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 3: But I can also kind of there's like a pick

648
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 3: or two in between me and the other drafters have

649
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 3: to be so I can kind of strategize water on

650
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 3: in the draft with they're looking at their rosters and saying, Okay,

651
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 3: well I can maybe I can wait like an extra

652
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 3: round on a quarterback because they already took a quarterback

653
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: or something like that. So but I like having that

654
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: option of like maybe being able to steal some value

655
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 3: by kind of looking at rosters, you know, between me

656
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 3: and my next pick.

657
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: Right, everybody in the NFL, I have a dream of

658
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: winning a super Bowl.

659
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: I'm really not into dreams, Okay, I'm into nightmares.

660
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 3: We're not trying to.

661
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: Go to the Gator Bowl. We're trying to go to

662
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. And to do that you got to

663
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 1: really try to end somebody's dream. So get into that.

664
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: Let's let's get into a little more of like how

665
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 3: we actually look at players and who are actually targeting

666
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: based on what we're expecting for them. It sounds more

667
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,719
Speaker 3: advanced than it is, but it's kind of like stealings

668
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 3: floor consistency, or like the opposite of consistency, which is volativity.

669
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: So we like to look at range.

670
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 3: Of outcomes right seaw Like, it's like every week there's

671
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 3: going to be a range of outcomes for a player,

672
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 3: and generally the deeper you go into a draft, the

673
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 3: wider that.

674
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: Range of outcomes is going to be for any position.

675
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 3: But it's just that, like quarterbacks have the kind of

676
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 3: the they have a more compact range of outcomes, whereas

677
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 3: like you know, when you start talking about like your

678
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 3: second running back, your third wide receiver, you're going to

679
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 3: have a lot more a wider range of outcomes weak

680
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: week exactly.

681
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: So I mean I mentioned it earlier, but you know,

682
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 4: one of the mistakes I see a lot of people

683
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 4: make is that, you know, they take Christian McCaffrey first

684
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 4: pick overall, and they think, there you go, I got

685
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 4: the top scoring running back. And it's not that simple.

686
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 4: Like you said, there's a range of outcomes. I would

687
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 4: give a guy like Christian McCaffrey a fifteen to twenty

688
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 4: percent chance of actually finishing as a top scoring running back.

689
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 4: You know, he can get hurt, we saw that last year.

690
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 4: Plus anything can happen. You know, guys behind him can.

691
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 1: Have a career year.

692
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 4: He can kind of discipline a little bit end up

693
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 4: being the fifth scoring running back. So whenever we're projecting players,

694
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,719
Speaker 4: you know, we're projecting their median. So you know you

695
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 4: talked about quarterbacks. A perfect example would be like Tom

696
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 4: Brady versus the Trey Lance. You know, I'm projecting Tom

697
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 4: Brady for forty seven hundred yards and thirty six touchdowns.

698
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 4: He's probably gonna end up somewhere right around there right

699
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: and start every game that he's healthy and end up

700
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 4: being a low end quarterback.

701
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: One.

702
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 4: We kind of know what we're gonna expect out of

703
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 4: Tom Brady. But Trey Lance, you know, he could back

704
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 4: up Jimmy g all year and not start a game

705
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 4: for all we know, or he could start Week one

706
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 4: and be a low end to high end quarterback. One

707
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 4: we don't really know. So that's when I think of

708
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 4: Trey Lance, I think of a why range of outcomes.

709
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 4: His projection is two hundred and thirty two fancy points.

710
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 4: It could be over three hundred, it could be under

711
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,719
Speaker 4: one hundred. So a guy like him has an extreme

712
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 4: range of outcomes, so you have to handle him differently.

713
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 4: Whereas Tom Brady, we kind of know roughly where he's

714
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 4: going to end up, so that's kind of when I'm

715
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 4: looking at guys where I am in the draft, what

716
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 4: kind of league I'm in, I'm thinking about guys in

717
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 4: that kind of way.

718
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And this goes back to kind of how to

719
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: use your early round picks, because I think in the

720
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 3: early rounds, the one thing you're really looking for is

721
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 3: a low range of outcomes, Like you're not you don't

722
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 3: want a wide range of outcomes with your top pick.

723
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 3: Let's say, like a JK. Dobbins versus like a Derrick

724
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,959
Speaker 3: Henry or somebody like that. Like the reason Derrick Henry

725
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 3: is like a top three pick is because there's a

726
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 3: pretty small range of outcomes with him. It's like he's

727
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 3: gonna get hurt and miss games, but if he if

728
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 3: he's in the lineup, he's probably gonna get twenty plus

729
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 3: carries a week and be efficient with those carries. Whereas

730
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 3: a guy like JK. Dobbins, his pop games may come

731
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 3: even come close to Derrick Henry's. You know, he may

732
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: have a couple of games where he has like one

733
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: hundred ninety yards and multiple touchdowns in a game, but

734
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 3: he'll also have weeks where he may not even.

735
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 1: Get double digit carries.

736
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 3: Those will add up over the course of the season,

737
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 3: and so you don't want that high up in your

738
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 3: draft if you can avoid it.

739
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: So you know, that's why you.

740
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 3: Know Travis Kelcey is one of the only tight ends

741
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: you take high because almost every week he's giving you

742
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 3: double digit points, like even in standard, you know he's

743
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 3: coming pretty close weeks. That's what you're really looking for

744
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 3: so early in draft, first few picks. That's why I

745
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 3: say you can't win it, but you could lose it

746
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 3: if you start taking guys with two wider range of

747
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 3: outcomes early, regardless of position.

748
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: That's how you lose your draft.

749
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,239
Speaker 3: Early early in the draft, just to make sure you

750
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 3: get guys with a range of outcomes that's going to

751
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: be predictable.

752
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be able to predict injuries.

753
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,479
Speaker 3: The only thing I will say with that is like

754
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 3: if a guy's hurt heading into a season, those are

755
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 3: the guys that tend to avoid more so than even

756
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: like the injury prone label. Guys like and I know

757
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 3: this is somewhat of a bad example because he ended

758
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 3: up missing games through the suspension, but like a guy

759
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 3: like Will Fuller, it was like he had the injury

760
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 3: prone label and so people he was kind of everyone

761
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 3: was kind of down on him, but like, well, he

762
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 3: was healthy, he was one of the top wide receivers

763
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 3: in the game. And then unfortunately, of course he gets

764
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 3: suspended and misses the same amount of games that he had.

765
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: Did all the other years.

766
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 3: Anyway, but you see my point, right, or it's like

767
00:33:56,280 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 3: the injury prone label is less worrisome than a guy

768
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: like aj Green.

769
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: You know, like they come into the year hurt. You

770
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: already got our predict.

771
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 3: Injuries for guys you know a couple of miss games,

772
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 3: so if you it's almost like you're you're doubling that

773
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 3: by coming into the year hurt or even worse. So

774
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: that's the one area where I personally would say, kind

775
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 3: of have some caution, but and that will kind of

776
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 3: widen a range of outcomes.

777
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 4: I think when it comes to these range of outcomes,

778
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 4: I talked about different formats, and I think it's important

779
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 4: to say that for best ball formats, specifically, I'm looking

780
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 4: for players with the higher ceiling, So you're only going

781
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 4: to get points when they have their spiked weeks and

782
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 4: you're competing against everybody else in your league. You have

783
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 4: to score the most points in your league. It's a

784
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 4: top heavy payout system. So a guy like Will Fuller

785
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:42,959
Speaker 4: I love to get because he has of spiked weeks.

786
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 4: You don't really care if he gets suspended or injured

787
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 4: for a few games.

788
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 1: You'll live.

789
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 4: Whereas you know, season long, head to head formats, I

790
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 4: value a higher floor much more because you know every

791
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 4: week you're playing it's one opponent, so you just need

792
00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 4: to score more points in your opponent.

793
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: So you just need points.

794
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 4: So Will Fuller or like you know, like a Tyler

795
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 4: Lockett having a dud that doesn't help you that week,

796
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 4: it's detrimental. So a guy like Tyler Boyd that I

797
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 4: draft over Will Fuller in that range where Tyler Boy's

798
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 4: probably not going to have massive, massive games with T

799
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 4: Higgins and Jamar Chase now, but you know he'll get

800
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 4: four to five catches a game and get you some points,

801
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 4: So I think that's more valuable in season long. So

802
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 4: that's that's what I have. Both guys ranked similar in

803
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 4: my projections, but I think of him two different lights

804
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 4: when it comes to best ball versus say, season long

805
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 4: head to head. That's that's kind of how I view

806
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 4: players differently when it comes to the range of outcomes.

807
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just just because this is a one on

808
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 3: one episode, just to be clear. The traditional, like default

809
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 3: fantasy format is head to head where it's like you're

810
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: making a line. You draft a team and then you

811
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 3: make a line up every week and you have to

812
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 3: set it before you know. Games start on Sunday and

813
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 3: you're going against one other opponent, and your wins and

814
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 3: losses are totaled up.

815
00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 1: Best ball is.

816
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: Where you draft team with a deeper roster, usually have

817
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 3: like two or three quarterbacks, like six or seven running

818
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 3: backs and wide receivers, two or three tight ends, and

819
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 3: then you're just whoever the highest scoring you know, like

820
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,240
Speaker 3: one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers are in each week.

821
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: You get credit for those points and you don't care

822
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: as much.

823
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 3: About the consistency in those weeks as you would in

824
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 3: a traditional format.

825
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: Arms in the air and a victory salute is pulling

826
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: down his pants.

827
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 1: Pull up those pants, take off the prawn. Be a man.

828
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: The next thing we want to talk about is sticking

829
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: with how do you draft players. Most people are going

830
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 3: to use some former rankings, right, and really the way

831
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 3: you should be drafting is based on value, and I

832
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 3: kind of touched on it before with you know the

833
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 3: baselines for each starter, and to be more specific, you're

834
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 3: using rankings and you're using average draft position. Now every league,

835
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 3: you're gonna be able to find the average Like if

836
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 3: you're drafting on ESPN, you'll be able to go to

837
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 3: ESPN and you'll see the average draft position for ESPN.

838
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 3: If you're drafting on Yaho, you can find it. So

839
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 3: there's always going to be some type of average draft

840
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 3: position that's essentially like a player's market value. So Sean,

841
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 3: I guess explain kind of what you see is like

842
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 3: the biggest mistake people make when they're drafting based on rankings,

843
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 3: Like they'll get our top two hundred, they'll.

844
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 1: See player A rank before player B.

845
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 3: That doesn't automatically mean you should draft that player right exactly.

846
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 4: So that's that's a huge mistake I see people make

847
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 4: is you know, obviously you want to use the rankings

848
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 4: when you're drafting, but that doesn't mean you draft them

849
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 4: at that time. I see people draft a player they

850
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 4: could have gotten, you know, two to three rounds later,

851
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 4: and that kills the value. That's the whole point of

852
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 4: drafting is we're trying to get guys at a value.

853
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 4: So the way I use ADP is, you know, whenever

854
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 4: I have a draft pick, one of the questions I

855
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 4: ask is which players do I think will make it

856
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 4: back to me? And based on that answer, I make

857
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 4: my decision. And if there's players that I know will

858
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 4: make it back to me, I'm not going to draft

859
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 4: them right there. And that's kind of what I use

860
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 4: ADP for, is I could you know, I have Marvin

861
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 4: Jones ranked as like the wide receiver forty four. I'm

862
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 4: a bit high compared to ADP. I'm not going to

863
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 4: draft him at eighty four if the market is drafting

864
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 4: him at sixty, so I can pass on him for

865
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 4: a few rounds. I know that by looking at ADP.

866
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,839
Speaker 4: So that's kind of how I use ADP. It's it's

867
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: is deciding when to take players, and that's how we

868
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 4: get value is drafting guy like Marvin Jones around his

869
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 4: ADP WID six wide receiver sixty, you know, and then

870
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 4: we have a guy that I consider to be, you know,

871
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 4: a low one wide receiver four. So that's that's kind

872
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 4: of how I view ADP. As you know, it's a

873
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 4: marketplace and we're seeing kind of where other people in

874
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 4: our league are going to be drafting players.

875
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 3: And this is really important in the sense of not

876
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 3: just individual players, but it goes back to positional value

877
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 3: as well, because really, when you're asking, like which players

878
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 3: are going to make it back to me, you're not

879
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 3: going to know exactly which players. You know, you're not

880
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 3: a psychic, You're not going to be able to completely

881
00:38:58,520 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 3: you know, it's average.

882
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: Draft position for reason.

883
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 3: But what you can kind of figure out is groups

884
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 3: of players that are going to make it back to

885
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 3: you and how many of them will be at a

886
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 3: certain position. And this is something you like to do,

887
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 3: Sean and have made very popular, is tiering players.

888
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: Right.

889
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 3: So for example, like let's say you're in the fourth

890
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 3: round and you're debating between you know, a running back

891
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 3: and a wide receiver that are ranked closely, but you know,

892
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 3: you see that in the fifth round there are a

893
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 3: bunch of other running backs for the fifth round average

894
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 3: draft position that are also ranked similarly to the running

895
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 3: back you're considering. But there may be none of the

896
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 3: wide receivers in that range weft, or maybe one if

897
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 3: you're lucky. So even if there's a running back might

898
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 3: be projected a couple points higher and thus ranked a

899
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 3: couple points higher, and the wide receiver may be a

900
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 3: better choice because of the tiers that you have ranked

901
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 3: and then the tiers according to the average draft.

902
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 4: Position, right, Yeah, exactly, And that's you know, tiers kind

903
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 4: of work with ADP really well. If there's seven players

904
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: left in the same tier and you think one of

905
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 4: them make it back, that's kind of telling you, hey,

906
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 4: I don't need to draft this position yet. Obviously it's

907
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 4: more complicated than that. But if there's one player left

908
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 4: in a tier and I say there's a huge drop

909
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 4: off after that tier, I want to get that guy

910
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 4: immediately and then fill other positions. So that's kind of

911
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 4: how tiers. You know, it's kind of a dance between

912
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 4: you know, positional tiers and position scarcity and ADP and

913
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 4: kind of balancing out when you get players. And that's

914
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 4: that's really all I'm trying to do in a draft

915
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 4: is maximizing value, getting players before big drop off set

916
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 4: of position, and using ADP to know when I should

917
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 4: take those players.

918
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely.

919
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 3: The good thing about average draft position is that, like

920
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 3: there's no kind of secret to tiering players, Like you

921
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 3: can just look at an overall ADP and understand the tiers, like,

922
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 3: for example, the number sixty one player is an ADP

923
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 3: is Raheem Moster. Number sixty two is Melvin Gordon, number

924
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: sixty three is Travis atn there's like three running backs

925
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,399
Speaker 3: there in that tier, but those are the twenty five,

926
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 3: twenty six, twenty seven. The running back twenty four is

927
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 3: fIF is at fifty fourth overall, So then you have

928
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 3: from fifty four through sixtieth you don't have any running backs,

929
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 3: and then you get three more and then there's a

930
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 3: big drop off until you get to sixty nine. So

931
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 3: you can kind of see that, like if you're picking

932
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 3: anywhere between like fifty and seventy, there's probably only gonna

933
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 3: be like three or four running backs that are going

934
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 3: to go. That's where your rankings because that's when you're

935
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 3: now looking at, Okay, if any of these running backs

936
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 3: actually worth drafting, or do I have other players ahead

937
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 3: of them, and do I need a running back badly?

938
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: You know that badly that I need.

939
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 3: One of these guys in that range, right, So it's

940
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 3: kind of the ADP tiers are gonna there. You just

941
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: look at the whist like they're already there. You can

942
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: visualize it, it's very simple. And then your ranking tiers.

943
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 3: That's where you know, having you know rankings that you trust.

944
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 3: You can go to Action Network and get ours will

945
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 3: have a tool for that as well with Sean and

946
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 3: I's rankings and the consensus rankings.

947
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 1: And all that.

948
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 3: But that's where you really get your idea of like

949
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 3: you compare those two and that's how you're kind of drafting.

950
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 3: Another thing I would caution against is like, especially because

951
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,399
Speaker 3: people do this in the early rounds, is like.

952
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 1: Trying to plan out every pick.

953
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,319
Speaker 3: You may have an ideal target, but really you should

954
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,959
Speaker 3: have more of like an ideal tier and players within

955
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 3: that tier or your target. So you shouldn't like, Okay,

956
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 3: I'm drafting like seventh, I'm going to draft Zeke and then.

957
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 1: It's like, well what is Zeco's fifth?

958
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 3: And it's like, you know, it's like more so like

959
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: I'm drafting seventh, and I know I want like a tailor,

960
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 3: a Zeke or Chubb or Barkley, you know, whoever falls

961
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 3: over Let's say a Kelsey and Adams a Hill or

962
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 3: you know what I mean. Like that's how you kind

963
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 3: of should be thinking about it. And like, and I

964
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 3: know it's kind of a more general question, but I

965
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 3: just want to give you, know, people kind of a

966
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: better visualization of like how we here are players and

967
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 3: you do this better than anyone. Give a general overview

968
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 3: of your process for tiering players, like what kind of

969
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 3: constitutes of a tier? Like what is kind of the

970
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,759
Speaker 3: differentiation point where you go from one tier to the

971
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 3: next at each other.

972
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 4: It's a good question. Obviously a big part of it

973
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 4: is my projected points. Like tight End's a good example

974
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 4: of this. Tier one I have Travis Kelcey all by himself,

975
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 4: Tier two I have Darren Waller and George Kittle, and

976
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 4: then tier three I have Mark Andrews, TJ. Howkinson, and

977
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 4: Kyle Pitts. So the idea of like say Tier three

978
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 4: with Andrews, Howkinson and Pits is give me any one

979
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 4: of those guys.

980
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: I don't care.

981
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 4: I like all of them equally, So that gives you

982
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,439
Speaker 4: flexibility with you know, the great point you made don't

983
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 4: go on the draft saying I'm gonna drop this guy,

984
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 4: this guy, this guy. Like I'm thinking of these ranges,

985
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 4: Give me either Mark Andrews, TJ. Hawkinson, or Kyle Pitts

986
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 4: and I'll be happy. I'm considering all three players equal

987
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 4: and value, so it gives you more flexibility. You're able

988
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 4: to react to the things that come up in the

989
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 4: draft you don't expect. So that's that's how I used tiers.

990
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 4: Is sort of what you were saying, is like fallback

991
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 4: plans attack a position. Like I said, Travis Kelcey isn't

992
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 4: a tier all by himself, so I kind of want

993
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 4: to get him early on before the position starts to

994
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 4: drop off. So that's that's kind of how I view tiers.

995
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 3: Would you say it's like even the drop off between

996
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 3: Kelsey and then Waller and Kittle? You said, yeah, generally,

997
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 3: what is that like a couple fantasy points per week?

998
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 3: Like what is the actual raw point projection? That's like

999
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,240
Speaker 3: denoting this separation between the tiers.

1000
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 4: It depends on each tier, and I try to point

1001
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 4: it out in my article, and you could look at

1002
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 4: our projections honestly to see where the tier drop offs are.

1003
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 4: But you know, the drop off between Kelson Waller, that's

1004
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 4: that's a pretty big drop off. So that's a couple

1005
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 4: points a week, and that's why it's critical to take

1006
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 4: a guy like Kelsey early. But you know, when you

1007
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 4: the farther down you get there's less of a drop off.

1008
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 4: You know, the positions tend to stabilize, but each tier

1009
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 4: is different in terms of the potential drop off. And

1010
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 4: I try to highlight in my article itself, you know,

1011
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 4: I say, Hey, this is a massive drop off between

1012
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:48,879
Speaker 4: this tier and this tier, so it makes that tier

1013
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 4: even more valuable and why you would want to target

1014
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:51,839
Speaker 4: that tier.

1015
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean, I don't know if it's because

1016
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,320
Speaker 3: we do this so much, but like, obviously your scoring

1017
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 3: system could be a little different depending on we format.

1018
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 3: But like fantasy scoring, especially when you're for non quarterbacks,

1019
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 3: which doesn't quarterbacks, you don't really don't really matter because

1020
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 3: they you could always find when late. But it's not

1021
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 3: that hard to kind of calculate fantasy scoring. It's like,

1022
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 3: you know, point one point per you know, per yard,

1023
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 3: or or point every ten yards, and then you get

1024
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 3: six for a touchdown, right, and then one or a

1025
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,719
Speaker 3: half perception. So like, I don't know about you, but like,

1026
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 3: even though I feel like when we kind of publish projections,

1027
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,720
Speaker 3: they're generally in the format of like season long point scored.

1028
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 3: I when I'm drafting, especially in when I'm tiering, I

1029
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 3: definitely like to think about it and even projecting the

1030
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 3: season long stats, like I like to think about it

1031
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 3: on a per week basis, and like it kind of

1032
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 3: makes a lot more sense where it's like, Okay, I

1033
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 3: can I can count on this guy to give me

1034
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 3: like four catches and sixty yards per week in a

1035
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,240
Speaker 3: PPR that's ten points. And the touchdowns are so volatile

1036
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 3: that like if we're talking about a receiver, everyone's going

1037
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 3: to be around like point three or point four touchdowns

1038
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 3: for the most part, So you can say, like this

1039
00:45:58,080 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 3: may be weird, but like I can do that math

1040
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 3: and I had to like, you know, zero point three

1041
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 3: touchdowns time six, so you could kind of visualize those

1042
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 3: drop offs, like, Okay, there are certain amount of receivers

1043
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 3: that you could count on for like five plus catches

1044
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 3: and eighty plus yards a week. Then there are there's

1045
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 3: like a tier of wide receivers that all probably gets

1046
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 3: you four for like fifty to sixty a week. You

1047
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 3: can kind of visualize these dropoffs.

1048
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,959
Speaker 4: We're just thinking about guys in buckets, and Travis Kelce

1049
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 4: gets his own bucket. There's nobody that you can lump

1050
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 4: in with him, and that's what makes him valuable.

1051
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that doesn't mean that like we're saying we

1052
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: guarantee that no one will get more catches per game

1053
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 3: than Travis Kelcey. It's just like from a projection standpoint,

1054
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: no one's median is higher than that, like Garren Waller.

1055
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:40,760
Speaker 1: Okay, here's an example.

1056
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 3: And this I think this is because I really want

1057
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 3: to help people kind of visualize this and kind of

1058
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 3: be able to do this in multiple ways, whether they're

1059
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 3: beginning or they're kind of picking it up quick. Seven catches,

1060
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 3: ninety four yards per game. It's Travis Kelcey. He's in

1061
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 3: a tier by himself.

1062
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:54,800
Speaker 1: Now.

1063
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,879
Speaker 3: Darren Waller last year averaged six point seven catches per

1064
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 3: game for seven twenty five yards. The catches per game,

1065
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 3: that's only point three points per week. If you're in

1066
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 3: a full PPR, but the yards per game is twenty

1067
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 3: yards different. That's twenty yards per week. That's two points

1068
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 3: per week. That's a massive difference. Whereas a whole bunch

1069
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 3: of wide receivers in like the sixty to seventy five range,

1070
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 3: you know, those are your wide receiver twos you have,

1071
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 3: you have your wide receiver ones are generally a little

1072
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,959
Speaker 3: above seventy five, But the top yards per game last

1073
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 3: year for all players receiving wise was DeVante Adams ninety eight.

1074
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 3: You had eleven players with eighty yards or more and

1075
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 3: then you had another twenty with sixty to seventy nine.

1076
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: You know, so you're kind of getting.

1077
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 3: Towards like what your target is for like a good

1078
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 3: starting lineup, just by understanding supply and demand in terms

1079
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 3: of teams yardage totally, Like there's only going to be

1080
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 3: so many players that can average so many yards receiving,

1081
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 3: and that's how you can kind of tear them off.

1082
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 1: And it's the same thing with reception.

1083
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 3: Well we thought they were all right, So how do

1084
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 3: we mitigate busts? Like? I think that's kind of the

1085
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 3: thing that you want to avoid obviously everywhere, but it's.

1086
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: More important early. So what are you doing? What do

1087
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 1: you what are you avoiding?

1088
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 3: I guess at each position or in general, or both

1089
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:18,399
Speaker 3: early or early in the draft especially Well, I.

1090
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 4: Mean, aren't we all trying to avoid bus? I mean

1091
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 4: I make mistakes all the time. I draft BUS. Last

1092
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 4: year A perfect example was Lamar Jackson. You know, he

1093
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 4: was the number one quarterback taken in most leagues and

1094
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 4: he didn't get hurt necessarily, he just he wasn't playing well.

1095
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 4: One of the most important things to do is to

1096
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 4: not sell low. So don't just get rid of him

1097
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 4: because he's struggling. You kind of have to ride through

1098
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 4: the storm. And it paid off. You know, the last

1099
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 4: five weeks of the season he was the QB two.

1100
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 4: So it's one of those things where players typically regress

1101
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:52,359
Speaker 4: to the means. So if they're not injured, we still

1102
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 4: believe in a player. We drafted him for that reason.

1103
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 4: So the worst thing you can do is sell low

1104
00:48:57,520 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 4: like a Lamar Jackson that year. So I think that's

1105
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 4: one of the most critical things. When you have a bust.

1106
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,720
Speaker 4: It's like, yeah, that sucks. I wish they were better,

1107
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 4: but don't do something stupid like, you know, trade them away.

1108
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,280
Speaker 4: That's how you handle that. Now. On the flip side,

1109
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 4: what I do like to do is look for players

1110
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 4: that busts that I don't own, and maybe you'll get

1111
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 4: an owner who's pissed off at them and try to

1112
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 4: pluck them away. But you know, when it comes to busting,

1113
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 4: it's something that's not a science. We can't necessarily predict

1114
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 4: every player that will bust. You know, you and I

1115
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:28,439
Speaker 4: are trying to do heading into the seasons, try to

1116
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,439
Speaker 4: highlight the players that we do think are being overvalued

1117
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 4: and try to avoid those as much as possible. But

1118
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 4: you know, we're not perfect. We're gonna end up with

1119
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 4: some bus on our team, everybody is. The goal is

1120
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 4: not to panic when it happens.

1121
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 3: First of all, I think a bust is more of

1122
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 3: an early round thing to me, like first five, six,

1123
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 3: starting line, it range route, because I think later on

1124
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 3: in the draft you should be taking more chances. So

1125
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 3: like you draft a guy in round ten that gives

1126
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 3: you maybe four or five weeks of good production, and

1127
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 3: those might be valuable weeks to you. So even if

1128
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 3: he is it like a starter per se that he

1129
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 3: might not necessarily be a bus. But I think some

1130
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 3: things to look out for are like number one, don't

1131
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 3: draft a quarterback early. I think you can save yourself

1132
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 3: a lot of a bus, just like you know Lamar

1133
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 3: Jackson perfect example, Mahomes getting.

1134
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: Hurt that the year after he had the big year.

1135
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 1: Things like that. I think that's a big one.

1136
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:23,359
Speaker 3: I think players coming into the year hurt of try

1137
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 3: to avoid that. That can help you avoid bus generally,

1138
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 3: like yardage per game per game stats are going to

1139
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 3: be very predictive. So like running backs with like only

1140
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 3: like a half season of like production at like the

1141
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,320
Speaker 3: level that you need them to be at to justify

1142
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 3: that pick, sometimes.

1143
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: You want to avoid those guys.

1144
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 3: Now there are obviously is a case by case bases,

1145
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 3: because like sometimes a guy is going to be like

1146
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 3: an obvious starter and he's young, and you know, like

1147
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 3: a cam Akers, like, I think he's fine, you know,

1148
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 3: even though he kind of picked it up mid year.

1149
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 3: Aging curves, I think are another thing to look at.

1150
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 3: Like running backs generally peak very early in their careers,

1151
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 3: you know, right away almost and you know, after twenty

1152
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 3: seven twenty eight, they start to decline pretty rapidly. Wide

1153
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 3: receivers tend to peak a little later, like they make

1154
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 3: a big jump year one to year two. Then they

1155
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 3: tend to peek around age twenty six through twenty eight.

1156
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 1: Then it's like a gradual decline.

1157
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 3: To maybe like thirty two ish where you see like

1158
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 3: another big drop, so like kind of spotting where you know,

1159
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,759
Speaker 3: getting ahead of those big drops at wide receiver. Like

1160
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 3: you know, a guy like aj Green, like I've been

1161
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 3: down on him for a few years, like Jordy Nelson

1162
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 3: was one you could kind of see coming back in

1163
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 3: the day. I think it was also an injury involved

1164
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 3: with that, But you know, generally guys like that you

1165
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 3: can That's that's one of the other ways you can

1166
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 3: kind of see on bus. But in general, I think,

1167
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 3: you know, just not drafting a quarterback early, as tempting

1168
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 3: as it may be, they can avoid a lot of

1169
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 3: the bus.

1170
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,919
Speaker 4: But also another very important point, you know, I don't

1171
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 4: consider a guy getting hurt being a bus necessarily, but

1172
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 4: when it comes to handcuffing or starting running back by

1173
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:58,359
Speaker 4: that is by taking the backup running back. So last year,

1174
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 4: if you drafted Christian McCaffrey Umber one overall, he busted

1175
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 4: because he got hurt out because he didn't perform well.

1176
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 4: And if you had his backup, Mike Davis, you would

1177
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 4: have helped mitigate that loss considerably. Mike Davis is putting

1178
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 4: up legit RB one type numbers when Christian McCaffrey's out

1179
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 4: of the lineup. So that's one of the most simple

1180
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,479
Speaker 4: ways to kind of like make your team a little

1181
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 4: bit less fragile is when you take a top ten

1182
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 4: running back, Like you mentioned, the first couple of rounds

1183
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 4: take their back up. That way, if they get hurt

1184
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 4: or miss any time, you have somebody that can just

1185
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 4: you put right in and you're not going to take

1186
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 4: that massive loss. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

1187
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,399
Speaker 3: Right right, Like when there's zeke, you know, you can

1188
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 3: get powered. And that's the one case where I think, again,

1189
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 3: it's like what you did early on in the draft

1190
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 3: kind of effect can even affect the value of players

1191
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,439
Speaker 3: later on, right, because value is dynamic in the sense

1192
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 3: that like when we put out a set of rankings,

1193
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,240
Speaker 3: and this is important, when we put out our rankings

1194
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 3: and we publish our rankings overall rankings, they're coming from

1195
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 3: kind of the perspective of, you know, the slate is empty,

1196
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:04,359
Speaker 3: the bard is queen. But as you start drafting, you know,

1197
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:07,320
Speaker 3: like if you draft three running back in the first

1198
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 3: three rounds, then obviously, like even if they're like, you

1199
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 3: come back around four and there are like still running

1200
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 3: backs that are kind of valued ahead of other players.

1201
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 3: Like there does become a point where you have to say, okay,

1202
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 3: like running back just isn't as valuable and some of

1203
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 3: the wide receivers left become more valuable now. So it's

1204
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 3: still as the draft progresses, you know, value increases and that,

1205
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:32,720
Speaker 3: and like so like when you draft the Alvin Kamara

1206
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,240
Speaker 3: or Zeke Elliott early with Tavius Murray and Tony Poward

1207
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 3: should move up like a round or so, you know,

1208
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 3: compared to what we have a rank almost by default

1209
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 3: for you just to like just to make kind of

1210
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 3: make sure that you get that player. And I hate

1211
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 3: like reaching on Hay. I wouldn't say like reach reach

1212
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 3: like multiple rounds, but like if it's like a round

1213
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 3: ahead maybe, and then you can kind of guarantee yourself

1214
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 3: that you can get a guy like a Murray or

1215
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 3: a Pollard, it can pay off in a huge way

1216
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 3: because again, those running back spots are just so difficult

1217
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 3: to fill from week to week. So if you can

1218
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 3: get like an either war situation and you kind of

1219
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 3: have your running back locked up based on that, it

1220
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:12,480
Speaker 3: can be really valuable. So yeah, handcuff your running backs

1221
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 3: whatever possible, But there is like an art and a

1222
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 3: science to handcuff it.

1223
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,200
Speaker 1: Now, let me caution you, this is only an exhibition.

1224
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:22,560
Speaker 4: This is not a competition. As always, please no waggering.

1225
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 3: Okay, let's finish it off with our research process and

1226
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,440
Speaker 3: then in season strategy a little bit at the end.

1227
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:31,760
Speaker 1: So let's start with just how do you prep for drafts?

1228
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 4: Well, okay, so I mean I'm making projections, I'm analyzing

1229
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:40,319
Speaker 4: every player. I don't expect everybody to do that, you know,

1230
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 4: when it comes to preparing for your draft, I think

1231
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 4: the most important thing you can do mock drafting. Let's

1232
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:48,360
Speaker 4: say you have a draft in a month, like I

1233
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 4: would start right now. I would hop in a mock

1234
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 4: draft from each draft position and kind of get a sense,

1235
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 4: you know, try different strategies out and get a sense

1236
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 4: of which players make it back to you, like when

1237
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 4: the draft season started. You know, I started drafting teams

1238
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 4: a couple of months ago. You know, I thought I

1239
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 4: had a good draft plan, and then I got into

1240
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 4: mocks and I was like, whoa, whoa, you need to

1241
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 4: get running backs here, you need to get wide receivers there.

1242
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 4: So you learn a lot by doing mocks. You don't

1243
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 4: want to show up at your draft, you know, stale

1244
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 4: and not having an idea of like how the draft

1245
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 4: might flow. So I think it's critical to just mock

1246
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 4: as much as possible, you know, each point in the

1247
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 4: draft if you can, and just get a general idea

1248
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 4: of what to expect, and then from there you can

1249
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 4: kind of, you know, know which areas you need to

1250
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 4: research a little bit more on players or tiers or positions.

1251
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 4: But you know, you don't get that unless you mock mockmock,

1252
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 4: So I think mock drafting is the best way to

1253
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 4: prep for your draft.

1254
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and especially if you know what number your pick is,

1255
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 3: at least mock for that slot. But yeah, I'm mocked

1256
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 3: for all of them because I'm entering so many different drafts, entering.

1257
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:51,800
Speaker 1: Bestball drafts, especially at most stakes.

1258
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 3: If you need, you know, some type of stakes just

1259
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 3: to feel, you know, like it was worth it, you

1260
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 3: can do that.

1261
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 1: It's kind of in place of mocks.

1262
00:55:58,400 --> 00:55:59,919
Speaker 3: And one of the things I think is big again

1263
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 3: just goes back to like you don't really win or

1264
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 3: lose your draft in the early rounds, especially don't win it.

1265
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 3: But I like to kind of finish your mox or

1266
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 3: just visualize the draft from the end of it to

1267
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:14,880
Speaker 3: the beginning. So like, for example, you know, one of

1268
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 3: the reasons we preach take a quarterback weight is that

1269
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 3: you can start with like let's say you're in a

1270
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 3: fifteen round draft and you know take out the kickers

1271
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 3: and defenses.

1272
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:24,359
Speaker 1: Those should always be your last picks.

1273
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 3: But let's say you're in a fifteen round draft and

1274
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 3: you're looking at okay, you're looking at ADP and you're saying,

1275
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,319
Speaker 3: who would be available in round fifteen that I would

1276
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:35,520
Speaker 3: be comfortable drafting, Who's a value, who's good who can

1277
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:38,359
Speaker 3: I potentially like start, or who's a good value here that.

1278
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 1: I could get way down around fifteen.

1279
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 3: And you might say, Okay, there are like maybe four

1280
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 3: or five quarterbacks here that could probably start for me

1281
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 3: at least week one, week two that I could get

1282
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 3: in round fifteen. Okay, boom, So I know I can

1283
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:52,320
Speaker 3: take a quarterback in round fifteen. All right, round Fourteen's

1284
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:53,320
Speaker 3: what's in round fourteen?

1285
00:56:53,400 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 1: Okay? There?

1286
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 3: You know there's even more quarterbacks. And there's also a

1287
00:56:57,200 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 3: bunch of like you know, teams like second or third

1288
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 3: receivers that you may not even get drafted, but that

1289
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 3: I think have some good upset that I would feel

1290
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:10,040
Speaker 3: comfortable with, like that last wide receiver off my bench.

1291
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:11,439
Speaker 1: You do it that way and then.

1292
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 3: You start really you start having your targets and your

1293
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: tiars reach round, and then it kind of leads you

1294
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 3: to the conclusion that you'll probably get from what we

1295
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 3: talked about anyway, which is that I need to prioritize

1296
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 3: running backs.

1297
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 1: I need to try to get it stud tight.

1298
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:27,960
Speaker 3: And if I can, there will be quarterbacks that I

1299
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 3: can make do with late. But if you start from

1300
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 3: the bottom up, I find that it helps your draft

1301
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,000
Speaker 3: so much because then you're gonna be able to see

1302
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 3: ahead as you're picking, and you're gonna feel a lot

1303
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 3: more comfortable. You're not gonna panic, you're not gonna want

1304
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:41,600
Speaker 3: the time or run out or anything like that, because

1305
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 3: you're gonna kind of have you're gonna have some idea

1306
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: of what you should do.

1307
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 4: It's a good time to get mistakes out and try

1308
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 4: new things. Like I said, say you want to do

1309
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 4: a much draft, and you're like, I'm gonna go against

1310
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:56,000
Speaker 4: what Sean and Chris said. I'm gonna draft Patrick Mahomes

1311
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 4: in round three and see how this goes. And then

1312
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 4: you see Tom Brady was drafted seven rounds later, You're like, Damn,

1313
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:02,959
Speaker 4: that team looks pretty good. I would have been better

1314
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 4: off by holding off listening to them, you know, trying

1315
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 4: things out, being crazy like that's the time to do it,

1316
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 4: not during your actual draft.

1317
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, and even if you want to have a strategy

1318
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 3: that goes against like like expert consensus is just you know,

1319
00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 3: it's just it's advice. But that doesn't mean you can't

1320
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 3: win with a strategy that does draft a quarterback early.

1321
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 3: But that does make it all the more important to

1322
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 3: kind of visualize your draft, to mock, to kind of

1323
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 3: plan out your other picks, because it's probably gonna be a.

1324
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 1: Little bit harder.

1325
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 3: Like I like, for example, I actually will especially because

1326
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 3: I enter, like you know, probably hundreds of different basketball

1327
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 3: teams and stuff like, I will take crazy chances sometimes

1328
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 3: and like kind of like say, okay, like I'm going

1329
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 3: to draft a team with like Kelsey and Mahomes or

1330
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:48,919
Speaker 3: something like that, and you know you have to draft

1331
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 3: those guys early obviously, And so now it's like what

1332
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 3: am I going to do with running back and receiver?

1333
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 3: And I'll kind of have a plan with that type

1334
00:58:57,320 --> 00:59:01,439
Speaker 3: of draft depending on my position in what I can do,

1335
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 3: and that's going to kind of be fleshed out by

1336
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 3: doing mocks and visualizing the draft. So you can win

1337
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 3: any which way, and you're because you're never gonna be

1338
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 3: able to predict anything perfectly you know, there are just

1339
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 3: certain strategies that are more fail safe than others, I

1340
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 3: guess you could say, And that's what we tried to.

1341
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:21,320
Speaker 3: So you know, like mock finish your mocks, think from

1342
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 3: the ground up, do a upside down draft, Prepare for

1343
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 3: all the different contingencies, and you're never gonna be able

1344
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:29,920
Speaker 3: to again, you're never gonna be able to predict.

1345
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 1: Like ADP is average draft position.

1346
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 3: Somebody else might do something crazy like take my homes

1347
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:35,959
Speaker 3: first overall, and then you're sitting there at number four

1348
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:37,919
Speaker 3: and you thought you were gonna maybe take the first

1349
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 3: wide receiver and now you have to you might get

1350
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:41,479
Speaker 3: like a top three running back and that might change

1351
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,440
Speaker 3: your draft strategy. So you've got to be prepared for

1352
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 3: different things, uh to happen. So I just want to

1353
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 3: wrap it up by talking a little bit real quick

1354
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 3: about just like in season strategy, how do you use

1355
00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 3: like the moves available to you.

1356
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 1: Trades, waivers to your advantage in season.

1357
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 4: Well, the problem with me is a lot of people

1358
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:03,960
Speaker 4: don't like to trade with me. That they think I'm

1359
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 4: trying to scam them and they avoid making deals. But ideally,

1360
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 4: when you're doing trades, you know it's not about screwing

1361
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 4: the person over. You want to offer them a player

1362
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 4: that helps their team as well. But you're you're trying

1363
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 4: to buy low on a player and sell high in

1364
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 4: your player.

1365
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 1: Or if you're weak at.

1366
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 4: A position, you know you're you're trying to fill that hole.

1367
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:27,520
Speaker 4: But you know, trading is very valuable tool end season,

1368
01:00:27,960 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 4: and especially you know when it comes to the waiver wire.

1369
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:33,000
Speaker 4: I think one of the most important things that you

1370
01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 4: have to decide during the season is you know when

1371
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:38,880
Speaker 4: to use your free agent budget or your number one waiver.

1372
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:41,840
Speaker 1: And I think there's so many different.

1373
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 4: Variables that come into it, but I think one of

1374
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 4: the things that I look for when I'm making like

1375
01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 4: a number one waiver ad or use most of my

1376
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 4: free agent budget is when that player is going to

1377
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 4: offer value the rest of the season. So let's say

1378
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 4: it's a backup running back that is now going to

1379
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:57,439
Speaker 4: take over the starting job and he's on the waiver wire,

1380
01:00:57,680 --> 01:00:59,520
Speaker 4: and you know, the starting your running back tears or

1381
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 4: acl the out for the rest of the season, that

1382
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 4: running back is now super super valuable, So I'm going

1383
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 4: to use you know, probably my number one waiver or

1384
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 4: all my free agent budget to lock down that guy,

1385
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 4: Whereas you know if a player like Ezekiel it's gonna

1386
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 4: miss one or two games. Yes, so Tony Pollard is

1387
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 4: now valuable for those two games, but you know he's

1388
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:21,960
Speaker 4: he's a short term rental, so you don't want to

1389
01:01:22,000 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 4: spend too much of your free agent capital or your

1390
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:27,600
Speaker 4: number one waiver. I guess Tony Pauler is a bad

1391
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 4: example because he should be owned everywhere. But you get

1392
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 4: what I'm saying. When the guy's is gonna have a

1393
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 4: one to two game of value, that's less valuable than

1394
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 4: a guy that's gonna have it for multiple weeks or

1395
01:01:38,320 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 4: the rest of the season. So that's kind of how

1396
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:41,880
Speaker 4: I think of, you know, the waiver where I'm making

1397
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:42,640
Speaker 4: decisions in.

1398
01:01:42,520 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 1: That regard generally.

1399
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:46,560
Speaker 3: Kind of going to your point, it's like what I

1400
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 3: try to do is by the time playoffs come around, ideally,

1401
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 3: and it's not always going to happen like this, especially

1402
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 3: in larger leagues, but ideally, I would just like.

1403
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 1: To have a team full of studs. So yeah, that's

1404
01:01:58,800 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 1: another reason.

1405
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:03,440
Speaker 3: That's another right, It's another reason why like I'm usually

1406
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:06,560
Speaker 3: looking to draft a Kelsey if I can, because it's

1407
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 3: just so hard to like get that at But like

1408
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 3: if I have the opportunity, for example, to trade like

1409
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 3: my RB two and like a my wide receiver two

1410
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 3: for an RB one, it might look a little unbalanced,

1411
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 3: like the projections may give you know, the other side

1412
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 3: more points. But it's like, if I'm gonna have like

1413
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 3: a guy that I could count on for like top

1414
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:30,160
Speaker 3: end production every week, it's going to be more valuable

1415
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:33,479
Speaker 3: to me than a guy that I may consider having

1416
01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 3: the bench on a week two week basis.

1417
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:35,919
Speaker 1: For another guy.

1418
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 3: So like, I guess it's not even just it's just

1419
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 3: consistent production. I'm always looking for it in any weak

1420
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 3: where I have to you know, start. You know, it's

1421
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 3: head to head, so I have to start guys. I'm

1422
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 3: always looking for like consistent production, which is another reason

1423
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 3: why I'm like you, like you said, use those extra

1424
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 3: picks on running backs rather than getting a kicker or

1425
01:02:53,720 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 3: defense when you don't until you have to, or because

1426
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 3: I'm always looking a package, you know, as many players

1427
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 3: as I can for studs, and I think running backs

1428
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 3: are always going to be the most valuable trade ships.

1429
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 3: So like, even if you draft a running back that

1430
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 3: may end up being a bust in week three, there

1431
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 3: might be people that still don't believe he's a bus

1432
01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:13,240
Speaker 3: You can use that running back as a trade ship,

1433
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 3: and you know, you can still kind of come up

1434
01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:16,800
Speaker 3: off that if you package him in the deal.

1435
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:18,520
Speaker 1: So it's always good to have a bunch.

1436
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 3: Of running backs a bunch of receivers so that you

1437
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 3: can kind of do two for ones or three for two.

1438
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:25,680
Speaker 4: That's a good tip, is like, especially when you're getting

1439
01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 4: close to the playoffs, two for one trades are definitely

1440
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 4: the way to go because, like you said, you're trying

1441
01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:32,520
Speaker 4: to maximize your starting lineup. At that point, your bench

1442
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 4: is a little less valuable. So yeah, I would agree

1443
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:37,160
Speaker 4: with that. Like two for one trades leading into the

1444
01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 4: playoffs to upgrade your starting lap, I think is a

1445
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 4: great tip.

1446
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, And every week that passes, there's less injury risks,

1447
01:03:43,920 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 3: so every week that passes, your starting lineup gets more valuable.

1448
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:48,840
Speaker 1: You can look at schedules.

1449
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 3: You know, the teams that are down in the dumps

1450
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:53,240
Speaker 3: tend to want more startable guys. That's probably why they're

1451
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:54,920
Speaker 3: down in the first place. So sometimes you can make

1452
01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 3: those two.

1453
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:57,320
Speaker 1: For one or four for two or or three you know,

1454
01:03:57,400 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 1: three for two.

1455
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,959
Speaker 3: Or whatever and get like two duds because a team

1456
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 3: just needs starters, period, and you don't have to worry

1457
01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 3: about the trait biting you if you're in a good position.

1458
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 3: And on the other side, you know, you know, maybe

1459
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,880
Speaker 3: you take some chances on some upside guys a little more,

1460
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 3: and I'm always willing to make those like two for ones.

1461
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 4: Just one last point when it comes to waver waiver

1462
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:19,960
Speaker 4: wire and what we were talking about earlier, when it

1463
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 4: comes to streaming quarterbacks on the waiver wire, a lot

1464
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 4: of times I head into a season with that plan,

1465
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 4: but you usually end up stumbling across a jackpot. So

1466
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 4: we're not going to just be streaming Carson Wentz and

1467
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 4: Derek Carr all year long. Last year, specifically, I ended

1468
01:04:35,360 --> 01:04:37,560
Speaker 4: up with Justin Herbert in a lot of leagues, so

1469
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 4: I had some more teams where like I ended up

1470
01:04:39,600 --> 01:04:41,960
Speaker 4: on Jalen Hurts when it came to playoff times. So

1471
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 4: when it comes to like streaming these positions, a lot

1472
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:46,640
Speaker 4: of time you can actually stumble upon a guy that

1473
01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 4: ends up being a top five player. So that's another

1474
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 4: reason why when it comes to quarterbacks specifically, it's not

1475
01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 4: a bad strategy because you know, it's it's there's so

1476
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 4: much upside available on the wirewire that you do end

1477
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:01,720
Speaker 4: up a lot of time striking goals. So that's another

1478
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:02,480
Speaker 4: point I wanted to make.

1479
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:07,160
Speaker 3: You can use those spots on more like lottery ticket

1480
01:05:07,200 --> 01:05:09,280
Speaker 3: running backs so that you can afford to trade away

1481
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 3: you're like running back two or three.

1482
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 1: That's a good way to put it.

1483
01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 3: It's those quarterbacks you're gonna you could find those top guys,

1484
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 3: whereas it's harder at other positions. So you just got

1485
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:19,959
Speaker 3: to kind of plan for that. And uh and yeah,

1486
01:05:20,080 --> 01:05:22,439
Speaker 3: I think that I think that about does it any

1487
01:05:22,680 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 3: last final words, biggest tip anything about people to remember.

1488
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:29,200
Speaker 4: I think the everything we talked about, we're just building

1489
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 4: a roster that has the most upside possible and you

1490
01:05:33,440 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 4: know how to funnel that into the season. So, like

1491
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 4: we said, running back is the most important position when

1492
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 4: it comes to the draft. You're trying to build up,

1493
01:05:42,120 --> 01:05:45,040
Speaker 4: you know, a huge portfolio of running backs because that's

1494
01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:47,280
Speaker 4: the most valiable week to week during the season. It's

1495
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 4: it's very difficult to add, you know, a stud running

1496
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:53,720
Speaker 4: back in season, they're usually taken up, whereas things like quarterback,

1497
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:57,600
Speaker 4: kicker defense you can usually live off the waiver wire

1498
01:05:57,760 --> 01:06:00,120
Speaker 4: if needed. And then the last tip is just how

1499
01:06:00,160 --> 01:06:03,520
Speaker 4: valuable a guy like Travis Kelcey is. And you know,

1500
01:06:03,560 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 4: the bigger takeaways position scarcity, when when you're drafting players,

1501
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 4: you are paying attention to position scarcity and getting players

1502
01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 4: before there's a huge drop off at the position, and

1503
01:06:13,200 --> 01:06:16,520
Speaker 4: using ADP to kind of guide win the draft players

1504
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:19,280
Speaker 4: based on, you know, anticipating where everybody else in your

1505
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 4: league is gonna be drafting players.

1506
01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:21,480
Speaker 1: I think just.

1507
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:25,680
Speaker 4: Overall that's probably doesn't sound simple, but I think big picture,

1508
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 4: it is pretty simple in that regard.

1509
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,560
Speaker 3: I always go back to startable weeks, and when I

1510
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 3: say startable weeks, I mean weeks that you will know

1511
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:35,600
Speaker 3: to start a player and he'll be in like the

1512
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:38,120
Speaker 3: top third or so of scoring that week. So if

1513
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:39,920
Speaker 3: you have enough of those guys, you will win your

1514
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:42,240
Speaker 3: head to head that week. So it's like a guy

1515
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 3: is valuable if he's given you startup production and you

1516
01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 3: new to start him, which is why quarterbacks you can

1517
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:52,160
Speaker 3: get that much later than you can running backs and

1518
01:06:52,200 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 3: receivers you can get it kind of throughout the draft.

1519
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,560
Speaker 1: So you just need a wealth of those guys.

1520
01:06:56,600 --> 01:06:58,919
Speaker 3: So that is going to wrap it up for our

1521
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:03,040
Speaker 3: Fantasy one one podcast for the Fantasy Flex. You can

1522
01:07:03,040 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 3: find Sean Kerner at the Underscore Odds Maker on Twitter,

1523
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:08,880
Speaker 3: and you can find me at Chris Raybon.

1524
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 1: You can also follow us at those same handles.

1525
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 3: In the Action Network app to track all our bets,

1526
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 3: make sure you download it. You can track your own

1527
01:07:15,360 --> 01:07:17,320
Speaker 3: bets and a whole bunch of other good stuff see

1528
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:20,040
Speaker 3: the bets and money, percentages and whatnot. Be on the

1529
01:07:20,040 --> 01:07:24,600
Speaker 3: lookout for our next episode. We'll be diving into quarterbacks

1530
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:27,640
Speaker 3: and keep it going from there until next time. Let's

1531
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 3: get this money. Take care