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Speaker 1: The show goes on.

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Speaker 2: This is the official show on the fish on First

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Speaker 2: podcast channel with me Eli Sussman, the founder of fish

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Speaker 2: on First, covering in Marlin's every single day. There's something

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Speaker 2: going on here and we'll bring it to you Unlike

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Speaker 2: anybody else, I am recording the show a little bit

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Speaker 2: earlier than usual, releasing it a little bit earlier than

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Speaker 2: usual in advance of full squad reporting to Marlin's camp

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Speaker 2: in Jupiter. It also happens to be on the one

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Speaker 2: month anniversary of us unveiling the new version of our

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Speaker 2: site at fish on first dot com. We put it

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Speaker 2: up on January nineteenth. That's when we can finish the

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Speaker 2: finish the migration. Now February nineteenth, we're finally getting a

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Speaker 2: really good feel for what we want to do here

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Speaker 2: and how we think it could bring Marlin's fans incredible

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Speaker 2: value and incredible attention. This episode is going to focus

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Speaker 2: on the twenty twenty four Marlin's payroll, always a spicy topic,

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Speaker 2: and speaking of pay you can support what we do

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Speaker 2: here on fish on First as a super subscriber. The

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Speaker 2: spring training other underway and with us having people on

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Speaker 2: site for every single day of Marlin's camp thought it

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Speaker 2: was a good idea to put together a Marlins Spring

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Speaker 2: training journal where our latest updates are available to the

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Speaker 2: public on this page fish on First dot Com, but

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Speaker 2: all previous days exclusive for super subs if they want

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Speaker 2: to scroll back and see what we saw and understand

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Speaker 2: what we reported throughout camp to really have your finger

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Speaker 2: on exactly what this team is shaping up to be

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Speaker 2: entering opening day. As little as four dollars a month

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Speaker 2: for you to become a super sub, try to bring

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Speaker 2: you value in as many ways as possible, including through

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Speaker 2: this spring training journal, including through giveaways. Just got confirmation

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Speaker 2: that our January giveaway winner of the Yearie Paris Jersey,

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Speaker 2: he received it. And you'll have an opportunity for other

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Speaker 2: super sub exclusive giveaways when you sign up fish on

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Speaker 2: first dot com slash subscriptions. But let's talk about this.

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Speaker 2: Marlin's payroll an important topic every single year for this

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Speaker 2: Marlins team. They have to be efficient with the way

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Speaker 2: that they spend things. But in my opinion, I think

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Speaker 2: an opinion of most other folks, they also need to

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Speaker 2: be accountable to their constituents in terms of how they

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Speaker 2: use the revenue that they earn, as well as the

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Speaker 2: revenue that they receive from larger market teams. That is

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Speaker 2: a big element of Major League Baseball, ensuring that every

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Speaker 2: franchise is not only profitable, but extremely so. The Marlin's

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Speaker 2: under Bruce Sherman, people were curious exactly how their spending

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Speaker 2: habits would change with the change in ownership. And now

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Speaker 2: this is going to be believe it or not, the

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Speaker 2: seventh season under Bruce Sherman's oversight for the Marlins and

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Speaker 2: their spending habits have been a little peculiar, some would

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Speaker 2: say a little underwhelming all things considered, and we're going

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Speaker 2: to dive into it. There's a lot of different ways

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Speaker 2: that you could go about calculating payroll. You can spend

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Speaker 2: a whole lot of time tossing and turning over particular

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Speaker 2: numbers to get it right. Most importantly, I just want

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Speaker 2: to be fair, consistent and somewhat enlightening on this. So

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Speaker 2: there are several resources that I go to in order

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Speaker 2: to get a clear idea of what the total spending

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Speaker 2: for the Marlins is going to be, such as roster

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Speaker 2: resource on fangrafts, there's cots baseball contracts part of baseball perspectus,

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Speaker 2: and there's spo track and I take little elements of

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Speaker 2: what they do. There are a lot of costs associated

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Speaker 2: with running a major league franchise. I should say a lot,

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Speaker 2: a wide variety of different ways they have to spend

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Speaker 2: money to keep things together. There are hundreds of either

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Speaker 2: full time or part time employees outside of the players

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Speaker 2: that are part of keeping this team going and sustainable

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Speaker 2: and to keep it up to the standard it needs

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Speaker 2: to be for a major league franchise. Those people need

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Speaker 2: to be paid, especially those in the front office. This

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Speaker 2: Marlins offseason, the biggest acquisitions almost by any measure, have

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Speaker 2: been off the field, and the Marlins have added new

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Speaker 2: folks to their brain trust will get into them in

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Speaker 2: the second half of this episode. Those people command certain

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Speaker 2: salaries as well. There are even outside of the forty

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Speaker 2: men roster. There are over one hundred minor leaguers in

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Speaker 2: this organization that at least during the season they get paid,

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Speaker 2: and they get paid more than they have historically. They

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Speaker 2: get an in season salary. Marlands have to a responsible

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Speaker 2: for that. They have to pay bonuses to draft picks

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Speaker 2: international signings to acquire them in the first place. Millions

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Speaker 2: of dollars involved, both internationally and through the draft every

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Speaker 2: single year, even so vast majority of the expense is

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Speaker 2: the major league players themselves. What I like to do

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Speaker 2: is put together a projection of what's going to cost

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Speaker 2: to fill out this opening day active roster twenty six players,

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Speaker 2: as well as others who were under contract entering twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four of some kind or who are going to

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Speaker 2: be going on the injured list. When you are on

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Speaker 2: the IL, as long as it's the major league al

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Speaker 2: you still get every cent of what you would have

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Speaker 2: been owed ordinarily under the assumption that you got injured

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Speaker 2: playing baseball or preparing to play baseball. That's how it works.

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Speaker 2: One by one, we start with the guys on that

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Speaker 2: are have guaranteed salaries that have already been confirmed either

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Speaker 2: through arbitration negotiations or as free agent signings, pre existing extensions, etc.

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Speaker 2: In descending or do we start off with Josh Bell,

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Speaker 2: opted into his deal for twenty twenty four, took sixteen

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Speaker 2: point five million dollars guaranteed rather than take his chances

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Speaker 2: in the open market. Avesejl Garcia twelve million dollars for him.

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Speaker 2: Louis Arrise, fresh off losing his arbitration case against the Marlins,

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Speaker 2: ten point six million dollars the rehabbing Sandy al Contra

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Speaker 2: nine point three million as part of his extension that

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Speaker 2: he signed years ago. He'll still get that money. The

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Speaker 2: highest paid healthy play pitcher, I should say on the

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Speaker 2: Marlins Tanner Scott, he won his arbitration case against Marlins,

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Speaker 2: gets five point seven million. Hayesiusilzardo five point five million,

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Speaker 2: John Birdie three point six two five million. We have

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Speaker 2: a couple of players here that are not going to

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Speaker 2: be on the Marlins, and as of this moment, are

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Speaker 2: not on any roster for twenty twenty four, but may

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Speaker 2: attempt to get on there. Matt Barnes and Johnny Quato.

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Speaker 2: Both of them had twenty twenty four club options that

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Speaker 2: the Marlins declines after the World Series, So instead of

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Speaker 2: paying Barnes would have been something like nine million, in

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Speaker 2: Quato about ten. They'll get a fraction of that as

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Speaker 2: part of a buyout. Matt Barnes a two point seven million,

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Speaker 2: seven to five million dollar buyout, John Equato two point

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Speaker 2: five million. I count that as part of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four payroll. You can't really count it as twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three gets agreed to after the season, So regardless

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Speaker 2: of when exactly those checks hit their accounts, that is

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Speaker 2: part of the expense of running the team moving forward,

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Speaker 2: and that's less than it would have been if they

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Speaker 2: had picked up those options, So that is still a

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Speaker 2: piece of the puzzle. Combining those two five point twenty

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Speaker 2: five million in buyouts for the Marlins, Jazz Chisholm Junr

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Speaker 2: went to an arbitration hearing, lost it gets two point

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Speaker 2: six two five million this upcoming season. Hey Susanchez two

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Speaker 2: point one, Christian Benfincourt two point zh five. Ajpuck one

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Speaker 2: point eight, Trevor Rodgers one point five to three.

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Speaker 1: JT.

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Speaker 2: Chagua one point two eighty five. Nick Gordon, he went

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Speaker 2: to an arbitration hearing against his former team, the Twins.

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Speaker 2: He lost, gets traded to the Marlins. Marlins actually save

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Speaker 2: a little bit money overall in that transaction because Steven

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Speaker 2: Okert was due to make over a million bucks. Instead

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Speaker 2: they have Gordon here at nine hundred k and Anthony

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Speaker 2: Bender at seven hundred and seventy K. With this exercise

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Speaker 2: being filling out this open day roster, you have two

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Speaker 2: guys here that are bought out. Not with the organization,

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Speaker 2: you have one who is with the organization in spirit

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Speaker 2: but is not going to be on the active roster

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Speaker 2: this year, San dial Contra. And that leaves fourteen others

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Speaker 2: that are penciled in for opening day rosters abot, so

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Speaker 2: you could say more than penciled in. They are close

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Speaker 2: to Lockton, especially on the lower the bottom half of

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Speaker 2: those names I just mentioned, most of those guys have

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Speaker 2: minor league options remaining, which means they could be sent

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Speaker 2: down with the Marlins feel in camp that somebody else,

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Speaker 2: frankly deserves the spot better more than they do. If

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Speaker 2: they're being sent down to work on something in particular,

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Speaker 2: like it's a pitcher who's getting stretched out as a starter.

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Speaker 2: I like, it's possible that some of those guys get

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Speaker 2: beat out for jobs plat up, and it's also possible

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Speaker 2: that some of those guys get injured during the course

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Speaker 2: of camp. All touched back on that in a couple

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Speaker 2: of minutes, But it leaves fourteen guys here that we

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Speaker 2: expect to be on the opening day roster. That leaves

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Speaker 2: twelve more spots for the twenty six man and those

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Speaker 2: players as current as of this recording, those twelve would

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Speaker 2: all be pre arbitration eligible players, everybody from Braxton Garrett

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Speaker 2: who just missed qualifying for arbitration, to those that have

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Speaker 2: gotten just a small taste of big leagueaption like Jacob

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Speaker 2: Amaia Xavier Edwards. So those players are all going to

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Speaker 2: earn very similar salaries close to the league minimum. For

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, the league minimum salary is seven hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty thousand dollars. It goes up a little bit

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Speaker 2: each year as negotiated in the collect bargaining agreements. Looking

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Speaker 2: at last year, the Marlins, just like just about every

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Speaker 2: other team, they have a system where they usually give

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Speaker 2: these guys a little bit more than the minimum itself,

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Speaker 2: Like the minimum or pro rated version of that minimum

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Speaker 2: goes to the when you desperately need a player from

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Speaker 2: the miners, a fresh arm, for example, somebody really temporary.

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Speaker 2: Most of those guys will get when they get called

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Speaker 2: up very briefly. They get as little as possible for.

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Speaker 1: The time that they're in the big leagues.

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Speaker 2: But at I mean one time, you get these twelve

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Speaker 2: roster spots where at the absolute minimum they're gonna be

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Speaker 2: We're making seven hundred and forty thousand over the course

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Speaker 2: of the season, and the last year on average, Marlins

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Speaker 2: are paying these guys thirteen thousand, three hundred above that minimum,

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Speaker 2: that we're giving them a little bit more on average.

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Speaker 2: And this is all just a rounding error in big

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Speaker 2: scheme of things. Just to make this estimate as close

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Speaker 2: as possible, I use that precedence that for these pre

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Speaker 2: armed spots, on average, these guys will be making thirteen thousand,

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Speaker 2: three hundred above the league minimum. So in this case,

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Speaker 2: it's seven hundred and forty K plus that thirteen point

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Speaker 2: three K and get seven hundred and fifty three thousand,

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Speaker 2: three hundred each multiplied by twelve, and that's an additional

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Speaker 2: nine million, forty thousand in this projection. If you add

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Speaker 2: up all the guaranteed numbers above and then you have

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Speaker 2: to fill in the roster with these final twelve guys,

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Speaker 2: you get a projection per twenty twenty four of ninety million,

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Speaker 2: five hundred and seventy five thousand dollars for the Marlins

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Speaker 2: opening day projection. Now, going back to the injury front,

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Speaker 2: this is accounting for Sandy being on the il. Historically,

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Speaker 2: almost every time there is somebody else during the course

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Speaker 2: of spring training that suffers, if not a real injury,

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Speaker 2: then is simply behind, won't be ready for game action

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Speaker 2: at the end of camp and has to be placed

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Speaker 2: on on the il, even if it's only for a

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Speaker 2: short period of time. And if that happens, then then

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Speaker 2: lead you with another open spot or multiple open spots

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Speaker 2: that you also have to fill with at least those

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Speaker 2: pre r players. So this projection could go up. I

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Speaker 2: would lean towards it likely going up, whether the injuries happened,

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Speaker 2: whether they finally pull the trigger on a major league

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Speaker 2: free agent signing. I've decided in recording this now, I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to hold my breath with that anymore, even

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Speaker 2: though the team is poking around having negotiations seeing if

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Speaker 2: they can get anybody at a price that they're comfortable with.

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Speaker 2: For the moment, it's at ninety point five seven five

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Speaker 2: million dollars. Now, why is that notable? Because if you

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Speaker 2: look at the precedent that this team has set last year,

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Speaker 2: expectations not particularly high for the team, and yet that

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Speaker 2: opening day payroll was ninety two point five to seven

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Speaker 2: five million, exactly two million above. While I'm currently projecting

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Speaker 2: they're coming off a postseason birth, they're first in a

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Speaker 2: full season with fans in attendance for those games in

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Speaker 2: twenty years, and yet they come out of it on

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Speaker 2: the other side, entering a new year at a time

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Speaker 2: where major League Baseball itself is thriving from a revenue standpoint,

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Speaker 2: where that projection all has gone down. They're is spending

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Speaker 2: even less after being the twenty third ranked team in

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Speaker 2: payroll last year, they could be even lower than that. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's timing to dive into that a little more, and

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Speaker 2: the complicated the rationale the team might have about this

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Speaker 2: and how I think fans.

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Speaker 1: Should be absorbing this type of information. Stick with me.

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Speaker 2: Back here on the official Show, looking at I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to make sense of this payroll projection and why the

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Speaker 2: Marlins are spending relatively so little on their major league

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Speaker 2: team coming off one of the better regular seasons in

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Speaker 2: franchise history. So the one place that I referenced earlier

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Speaker 2: where you also spend money in a way that's not

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Speaker 2: accounted for in a payroll projection is by adding to

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Speaker 2: the front office. So the Marlins have made a lot

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Speaker 2: of changes to their front office, as you noted. As

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Speaker 2: you have noticed, no doubt, Kim Ang in October parting

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Speaker 2: ways with the team mutual option. She declined her part

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Speaker 2: of it after the Marlins made it evidently clear that

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Speaker 2: they were not sold on the way that she was

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Speaker 2: running the front office, instead bringing Peter Bendix as the

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Speaker 2: new president of Baseball Operations.

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Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: You see this entire list and everybody's title. There's Gabe

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Speaker 2: Kapler as assistant GM, Rachel Balkovich as the director of

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Speaker 2: player Development, on and on. We probably don't even have

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Speaker 2: the complete list yet. There could be even more added

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Speaker 2: between now in the start of the twenty twenty four season.

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Speaker 2: And these people cost money. They you know, the Marlins

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Speaker 2: do with this, spend something to bring them in. With Bendix,

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Speaker 2: I would say with a high degree of confidence that

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Speaker 2: he's earning in the seven figures annually to be the

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Speaker 2: POBO of this team. With Gab Kapler, that's an interesting

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Speaker 2: one because he was fired from the Giants with time

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Speaker 2: remaining on his contract. They continue they still owe him

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Speaker 2: all that money they that was due to him, and

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Speaker 2: I'm a little bit hazy on whether he's allowed to

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Speaker 2: double dip and collect his full managerial salary and something

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Speaker 2: from a different position. I think he might be at

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Speaker 2: the same time that gave the Marlins certainly quite a

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Speaker 2: bit of leverage and bring him in the fact that

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Speaker 2: he already was being compensated for this coming year. I

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Speaker 2: would imagine that played a part in it as well.

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Speaker 2: With most of these other people like Dalkovich, Vinish Konfon,

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Speaker 2: Frankie Pillieri, and on and on, Like most of these

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Speaker 2: hires are taking jobs that are either you know, promotions

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Speaker 2: over what they've previously done or just new positions as well,

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Speaker 2: I would imagine the team has quite a bit of

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Speaker 2: leverage there in terms of the compensation that's involved with that.

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Speaker 2: If you're being gone to do a job that is

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Speaker 2: more substantial influential than something you've done before, those people

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Speaker 2: you would think would come in at a lower salary

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Speaker 2: relative to other people that are also doing that job

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Speaker 2: elsewhere around Major League Baseball. Right if you're a long

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Speaker 2: time director of player development for a certain team, or

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Speaker 2: if yeah, if you've been running an amateur scouting department

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Speaker 2: for a major league team for a decade or more, like,

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Speaker 2: you'd think those people with other major league teams that

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Speaker 2: have more continuity there and proof of proof of concept

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Speaker 2: would be likely earning more than what the Marlins are.

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Speaker 2: So I just I don't think this is really a

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Speaker 2: huge piece of the pie, also considering that there have

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Speaker 2: been some departures as well. Even the front office has overall,

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Speaker 2: but there have been some other employees that were previously

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Speaker 2: under Kim Eng's purview that left along with her, either

291
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Speaker 2: by choice or by force, one way or another. When

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Speaker 2: you look at the net expense all things considered with

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Speaker 2: the front office changes, it's kind of a rounding error.

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Speaker 2: Maybe a little bit more. We'll see exactly what special

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Speaker 2: projects they put together, what other expenses are involved with,

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Speaker 2: what they need to do, what they plan to do

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Speaker 2: to transform the player development operation, making more efficient, how

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Speaker 2: they utilize technology and information to make players better, hopefully

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Speaker 2: in a way that they couldn't under the previous front office. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this to me is not really a substantial explanation for this,

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Speaker 2: just because of all the revenue that is coming in

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Speaker 2: for this Marlins team, aside from the Major League Baseball revenue.

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Speaker 2: You may have noticed, especially if you follow our coverage

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Speaker 2: at fish On First, they hosted the Caribbean Series at

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Speaker 2: Loan Depot Park this past a few weeks ago and

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Speaker 2: started on February first. It went through February ninth, twenty

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Speaker 2: five games of international competition at Lone Depot Park hosted

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Speaker 2: by the Marlins, and the Marlins absolutely benefited from this

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Speaker 2: from drawing in over the course of the fifth twenty

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Speaker 2: five games, they had more than three hundred thousands paid

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Speaker 2: tickets for these games that they sold. These were sold

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Speaker 2: by the Marlins. The particulars of the revenue split between

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Speaker 2: them and the Caribbean Baseball Federation, I can't speak to

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Speaker 2: exactly what those were. They did set a record in

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Speaker 2: the final for Caribbean Series record, and that broke a

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Speaker 2: record that they had set a few days earlier for

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Speaker 2: a game during the round robin stage of the tournament.

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Speaker 2: This was a big success in terms of attendance, and

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Speaker 2: that doesn't even account for all the other miscellaneous things

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Speaker 2: that may have been sold at the ballpark during the

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Speaker 2: course of these games, the money collected for parking as well.

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Speaker 2: As you guys know, it is sometimes the complicated to

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Speaker 2: get to games unless you drive there yourself and park

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Speaker 2: there yourself. So this was undoubtedly a big piece of

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Speaker 2: revenue that the Marlins get that no other Major League

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Speaker 2: team gets. There's one Caribbean Series per year, and this

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00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,399
Speaker 2: is the only one ever that was hosted in a

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Speaker 2: active Major League ballpark, so that's part of the equation

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Speaker 2: for this team. That a lot of money that went

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Speaker 2: straight to the team, on top of the people attending

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Speaker 2: at Lone's Boat Park. The Marlins negotiated an interesting arrangement

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Speaker 2: with the series where they have now they had the

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Speaker 2: control of the broadcasting rights, so they struck independent deals

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Speaker 2: with ESPN plus an ESPN deportest to cover in Spanish

335
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 2: and then with ballypor the broadcast games locally in English

336
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,479
Speaker 2: as well as some of those were actually also shared

337
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: outside of the local market as well, So there's that

338
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Speaker 2: element to it as well, the having those broadcasting rights

339
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 2: that paid off now, and I believe they also have

340
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Speaker 2: those broadcasting rights in place for future seasons, even though

341
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Speaker 2: the series itself might not come back to Miami for

342
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Speaker 2: several more years.

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Speaker 1: The Marlins were the ones.

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Speaker 2: That were a middleman in negotiating those broadcast rights to

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Speaker 2: be covered in when the event is played next February

346
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 2: and one after that and the one after that, there

347
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,199
Speaker 2: will be benefits from that as well. So that was

348
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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of positivity that this was

349
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Speaker 2: a good idea of bringing the event to the ballpark, like, yeah,

350
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Speaker 2: this was a cool thing, and ultimately the Marlins did

351
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Speaker 2: because there's money involved with it. Not that far down

352
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Speaker 2: the road, there's another World Baseball Class that coming up

353
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Speaker 2: in two years. There's a lot of confidence that the

354
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Speaker 2: Marlins will host some games of that, and with that

355
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 2: comes even more interesting creative revenue that they're bringing in.

356
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Speaker 2: At various points this off season and last year, there

357
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Speaker 2: was some concerns about what exactly was happening with the

358
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 2: local broadcast model through Ballely and whether that entire network

359
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Speaker 2: might actually come crashing down through bankruptcy. After those proceedings

360
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 2: have been going on for that part of the year,

361
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Speaker 2: and even though that situation is still kind of fluid,

362
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: at least for this upcoming season, Marlins are getting everything

363
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 2: that they negotiated in terms of local TV rights. Were

364
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: only a few years into the Marlins striking a new

365
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: big extension and increase in their local broadcast rights compared

366
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Speaker 2: to what they had historically owned as well, So that's

367
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 2: even that's still coming in pretty well and pretty close

368
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 2: to what the Marlins had originally forecasted when Bruce Sherman

369
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 2: and company bought the team. That was a huge element

370
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Speaker 2: if you remember far back enough was being able to

371
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: settle their future local TV situation and get a lot

372
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Speaker 2: more for it than what was under their previous deal.

373
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Speaker 2: Previously they had the lowest local TV revenue in baseball,

374
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Speaker 2: and now they're still pretty close to the bottom, but

375
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Speaker 2: not quite all the way at the bottom of the

376
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: way that they used to be. And on top of

377
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Speaker 2: all this, there's the revenue sharing. There's the fact that

378
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball, even during the moments where there are

379
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: some negative indicators about the average age of the audience

380
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: and the draw that national Baseball games bring and the

381
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 2: lack of draw that they bring, overall, there's still more

382
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Speaker 2: money coming.

383
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Speaker 1: Into this sport than ever before.

384
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Speaker 2: The broadcast deals that they have nationally are extremely lucrative,

385
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Speaker 2: and it's reflected in the way that players get paid

386
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 2: by other teams not named the Marlins, the fact that

387
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 2: there are always new salary records being broken. Also living

388
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 2: in a time in the United States, as you have noticed,

389
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: where there's been inflation pretty steadily over the last several years.

390
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 2: If we go back to this track record of Marlin's

391
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: payroll during the Bruce Sherman era, actually starting with the

392
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: final year the Lauria era, that opening day payroll was

393
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteen million dollars estimate it in twenty seventeen,

394
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 2: that was only the twentieth highest payroll. So even at

395
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 2: the end of Lauria's era, that was when he at

396
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 2: that time they put together a team that had a

397
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: lot of veteran players that were by his standards, that

398
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 2: was a pretty expensive team that they were twentieth in

399
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 2: payroll entering that year. When Sherman inherited some lousy contracts

400
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen, he he dumped some money away, but

401
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 2: he's also stuck with some bad deals. Entering twenty eighteen,

402
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 2: that opening the day payroll was just a shade under

403
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 2: one hundred million dollars. That ranked twenty third in baseball.

404
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 2: And usually this number does go up during the course

405
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 2: of the season when we're focusing on opening day payroll,

406
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 2: because injuries do pile up, and usually you're just paying

407
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 2: more different players over the course of the season than

408
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 2: you were originally entering the season due to those injuries. Yeah,

409
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 2: aside from twenty eighteen, if you're watching on YouTube, you'll

410
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 2: see the trend that the year end total payment is

411
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: almost always higher than the initial opening day projection outside

412
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,959
Speaker 2: of twenty eighteen, once they entered that following year and

413
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: had almost all their bad contracts off the books, the

414
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 2: Marlins are twenty ninth in opening day payroll, than twenty seventh,

415
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 2: then twenty eighth, then twenty sixth, and last year twenty

416
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 2: three and they have so many reasons to build off

417
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: of that right because of the performance of the team,

418
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 2: the fact that they had more people attending the ballpark.

419
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: They boasted quite a bit about that last year, didn't

420
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 2: the Marlins about how they were bringing in more fans

421
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 2: than in recent history. This is a table of the

422
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: tendance during the Bruce Sherman era. Obviously in twenty twenty

423
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: they didn't bring in anybody. Things were pretty flat in

424
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen, only about ten thousand paying

425
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:20,679
Speaker 2: tickets per game. But back in twenty twenty two that

426
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: ticked up a little bit once things fully opened post COVID,

427
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 2: and then last year going well over the one million mark,

428
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 2: averaging red around fourteen thousand per game over the course

429
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: of the season. And where does that what does that do?

430
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: Where is that being reflected in this team.

431
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: From year to year?

432
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 2: Last year nine hundred and twenty twenty two bringing barely

433
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: nine hundred thousand fans in twenty twenty three bring in

434
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 2: one point one six million. That's a difference of about

435
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 2: a quarter million paying customers from one season to and next,

436
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 2: and yet the payroll that they're starting off with has

437
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 2: not changed whatsoever. So what is the excuse here the

438
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 2: team's contention. I'll be eager to hear what it is

439
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 2: that Bruce Sherman says and Peter Bendix says when they

440
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 2: speak with the media on the day that full squad

441
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 2: workouts begin on Tuesday. I'm intentionally releasing this ahead of

442
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 2: time because I don't want there I suspect that their

443
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: comments won't really shed a whole lot of light on this,

444
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: and I don't want them to misconstrue what is really

445
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: happening here. And what's really happening is that they're spending

446
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: less on the major league team than they were a

447
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: year ago, despite what was by so many measures a

448
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: successful year for this Marlins team on the field in

449
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: terms of bringing in people to see their games, in

450
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 2: terms of creating revenue outside of the Miami Marlins through

451
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 2: international events, and all so by continuing to benefit from

452
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: being associated with Major League Baseball at a time where

453
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: there's so much other revenue being earned at a league

454
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 2: level that is being distributed to this team like this,

455
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: It's not always about signing the most expensive player to

456
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 2: players in order to put together.

457
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 1: The best team.

458
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: I mean, the Marlins have some very obvious examples of

459
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,959
Speaker 2: that in their recent history, including on their roster right now.

460
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 2: So the most expensive players are not the most valuable ones.

461
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 2: At the same time, the question is where is this

462
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 2: money going if it's not really being put into the team.

463
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 2: And the question is, you know, are they actually earning

464
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 2: less from the local attendance and from their local efforts

465
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: and they should. Are they failing to capitalize on the

466
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 2: elevated interest in their team that's happening in South Florida,

467
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: or are they simply pocketing more of the money ends

468
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 2: looking and you know, still trying to put together a

469
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: competitive team, but under these self imposed restraints, And we

470
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: can't really get a definitive answer to that. I just

471
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 2: think this is notable. And in case you weren't noticing

472
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 2: and realizing this is happening, That's why I went through

473
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 2: the effort to put together the projection and provide some

474
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 2: context behind it. I'll reiterate this offseason, it's not over yet.

475
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: It's moving incredibly slow. There are still literally dozens of

476
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 2: free agents that are going to be getting major league deals.

477
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: Maybe one or two or three get it from the Marlins,

478
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: but there is a possibility that they don't get anything done,

479
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,239
Speaker 2: and then you know, they go to camp with what

480
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: they have a team that is projected by Fangraphs and

481
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: by Pakoda at the moment for right around eighty wins.

482
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 2: So that would still be better than most seasons in

483
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 2: Marlin's history, but that would be a step back from

484
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 2: where they were last year. So I think this has

485
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 2: to be the reason why you go through this is

486
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 2: they're at it. I think a lot of people will

487
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: accept that they're right around that middle area, in that

488
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: gray middle between you know, being below five hundred and

489
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: potentially sneaking into the playoffs like they did last year.

490
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: This is an area where every incremental win that you

491
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 2: think you can bring in has a lot of value

492
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: because there is a huge difference in perception of your

493
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: franchise if you win seventy nine games versus whether you

494
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 2: win eighty five and are able to get into the

495
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 2: wild card Peter Bendix has. This is something that I

496
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: kind of agree with Bendix about. The objective over the

497
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: course of his tenure as POBO is going to be

498
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 2: to maximize the number of post season berths that the

499
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: Marlins make. If you just get in, anything can happen.

500
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: Last year was a good example of that with the

501
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 2: Arizona Diamondbacks going all the way.

502
00:29:58,320 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: To the World Series.

503
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: It really is a crapshoot once you get into the postseason.

504
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 2: So getting into the postseason is mentally valuable on its own.

505
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: Making the small changes that potentially could be the difference

506
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 2: in missing out and just getting in, you'd think that's

507
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 2: worth investing in, and it's worth rolling the dice on that,

508
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: especially when you're in a moments in history where things

509
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: are still pretty good, you know, the future major League

510
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 2: Baseball following the Rob Manfred era, which he told us

511
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 2: is coming to an end five years from now. You know,

512
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 2: long term, there's still a lot of questions that you

513
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: have to deal with from business perspective, But for the

514
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: time being, they're in really good shape and you shouldn't

515
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 2: let anything else convince you otherwise that this team should

516
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 2: be doing more. You know, there are using I should

517
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 2: should one final item as protected by spo trek. This

518
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: is still, you know, incomplete. I don't have my finger

519
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 2: on the pulse of every other team's outstanding money. This

520
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: is their calculation, excluding the pre armed players of the

521
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 2: Marlins have the eighty one and a half million that

522
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 2: among the guys that are under guaranteed deals that are

523
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: already locked into place as currently constituted, they are twenty

524
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 2: eighth in the committed payroll that they have for their

525
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 2: veteran players, aside from the Pirates in the Oakland A's

526
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: that's it. That's the bottom of the league. They're twenty

527
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: eighth out of thirty in the money they have committed

528
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 2: to those veteran players, and the league average by this calculation,

529
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: they're at eighty one and a half million the Marlins.

530
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 2: The league average by this payroll calculation is one hundred

531
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: and forty seven million. It doesn't make a whole lot

532
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 2: of sense that the Marlins are this far removed from

533
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 2: the rest of the league when they are in this moment,

534
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 2: you know, they still have this decent team together, they

535
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: still have some star player star power in place. It'd

536
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: be a little bit more defensible if they had taken

537
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,959
Speaker 2: steps to make long term commitments to some of these players.

538
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 2: But that is kind of where this all compounds and

539
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: where I think the direction of this team looks really

540
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 2: muddled right now. Where you know, they've invested in front

541
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: office people that have this long term vision and you know,

542
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 2: we'll watch that play out and see whether or not

543
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: they have some of the solutions to why is this

544
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 2: team has struggled with developing its own talent and and

545
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 2: all that, you know, putting something in place where it's

546
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 2: easy for you to simply replace the production as players

547
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: get more expensive, that you always have next waves of talent.

548
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: That's what the Rays do well. That is understandably a

549
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 2: good objective to have as an organization is one to

550
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 2: optimize that. It's just there is a balance here, especially

551
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: in the immediate term for this twenty twenty four season.

552
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: Like it's not realistic to think this team doesn't have

553
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: great depth based on what they inherited from the previous regime,

554
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: and you'd like to see them spends a little bit

555
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 2: more in order to give this team a chance to

556
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 2: be good in twenty twenty four and actually improve upon

557
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 2: what they had, you know, the most generous interpretation that

558
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 2: I've seen go around that is plausible is that this

559
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 2: team is just as good as last year's, that they'll

560
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 2: be able to, yeah, that they'll be able to score

561
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: just as many runs, if not a few more runs.

562
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 2: That they'll be able to still prevent runs at a

563
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 2: reasonably high level. That's possible. It's just you need you

564
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 2: would like to see them aspire for more considering how

565
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: little this franchise has accomplished historically, what this French, what

566
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: these fans have been through, and just the reality that

567
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: it seems like things are going really well on the

568
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 2: business side to justify a greater investment in the twenty

569
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 2: twenty four season. Yeah, so you can check out these

570
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 2: numbers lay doubt in more detail on our site fish

571
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: on First dot com, and we'll continue to keep you

572
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 2: abreast of all these rumors of potential signings that could

573
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 2: kind of change the math behind this a little bit.

574
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: I just think the overall, with this pretty clear picture

575
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 2: coming together about this team, about where they are, and

576
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 2: it's yeah, it's really hard to totally see exactly what

577
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 2: the vision is other than being a little bit frugal

578
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: in the short term and looking out beyond this twenty

579
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: twenty four season, and yeah, it'll be could come back

580
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 2: to bite them, is what I'll finish off by saying

581
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: that making a few incremental moves and you know, putting

582
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 2: more of your resources back into the team, that could

583
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 2: be the difference between having in a relevant season and

584
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 2: having one that is just good enough to keep them

585
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: in the race all season long and potentially set up

586
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 2: for a surprisingly fun October run. So I've been eli

587
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 2: Susman fish On First, the official show, coming at you

588
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: mostly on Tuesday mornings throughout the entire year with myself, staffers,

589
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 2: special guests, etc. We appreciate the support. Find the pod

590
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: wherever you get your pods by looking up fish On First,

591
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 2: ratings and reviews greatly appreciated. You're watching on YouTube, leave

592
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 2: like on this, share it around, and we'll be back

593
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 2: for more. By the time this next episode goes out,

594
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 2: there will be actual Spring training games to cover and

595
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 2: react to and overreact to. So I absolutely can't wait.

596
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: This is when it really gets fun. Thanks for sticking

597
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 2: around through what's been kind of a dud of a

598
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 2: off season in terms of content. This is where the

599
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: fun begins, and so I am really curious to see

600
00:35:50,880 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 2: exactly how it goes for this team, Go Fish