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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm smiling. We are live from our Tommy John Home Studios.

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Speaker 1: That's right. We have stepped up into the big leagues

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Speaker 1: with our friends at Tommy John. I'm joined as always

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Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, Mike campadre my BFF

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Speaker 1: professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.

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Speaker 2: Hello Chad.

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Speaker 3: I was wondering why I look so good and sounds

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Speaker 3: so clean. Now I know Tommy John Studios.

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Speaker 1: That's right. But listen, we could talk about Tommy John

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Speaker 1: all day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: We finally arrived at week one of the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: For those of you who are new here, every week

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Speaker 1: we record three episodes of this show. It's live only

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube channel and in the Action

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Speaker 1: Network app. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. That's where you're

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Speaker 1: going to get our information in the moment. Sometimes these

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Speaker 1: lines move, so you want to check it out. Every

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Speaker 1: Tuesday at one thirty, Simon and I do our betting

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Speaker 1: preview episodes. We go through every game on the slate.

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Speaker 1: We do our Foxhole Pick, our executive decision, pick our

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Speaker 1: Simon says Pick. Every Thursday, eleven am Eastern, we do

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Speaker 1: our Best Bets episode. That's where Simon and I narrow

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Speaker 1: down to our top five picks for our huge free

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Speaker 1: to play one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.

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Speaker 1: We also on that Thursday do a round of Sharp Calls.

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Speaker 1: That's where we get input from the wise guys who

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Speaker 1: listen to the Tuesday show. They might have critiques, they

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Speaker 1: might agree with us. We also do now We're New,

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Speaker 1: Tommy John, Big Balls, Bet of the Week, our Underdog

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Speaker 1: money Line, RLA, and more. And then on Sunday seven

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Speaker 1: thirty Eastern, we do our NFL recap show. We talk

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Speaker 1: about how our bets did, We wrap up before kickoff

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Speaker 1: of Sunday Night of Football, and we start looking ahead

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Speaker 1: of the lines for the following week. Once again, if

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Speaker 1: you're listening to the show and you're not signing up

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Speaker 1: for this contest, it doesn't make sense to me, because

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Speaker 1: it's free money. You should be joining our free, free

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Speaker 1: Free Favorites podcast. One hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em

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Speaker 1: of forty thousand dollars. Sign up Favorites dot action network

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Speaker 1: dot com. We know some people had some problems signing

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Speaker 1: up when we started talking about the contest. Got that fixed.

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Speaker 1: If you run into an issue, try end of the season.

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Speaker 1: The top ten finishers get paid. First place is forty thousand,

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Speaker 1: winning a contest. You're going to be making the bets anyways.

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Speaker 1: You might as well go Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com Again.

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Speaker 1: We'll be talking about this contest every week for the

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Speaker 1: next eighteen weeks. You are competing against me and Simon. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is like your chance to compete against us. Don't

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Speaker 1: forty thousand dollars first first place prize Favorites at actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot Com. Before we dive into the week one slate,

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Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older in

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, as we did

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Speaker 1: last year. There's a couple of season long props that

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Speaker 1: we want to make sure we're keeping track of. You

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Speaker 1: guys can still jump in on these. We will track

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Speaker 1: them all season long on the show. Trevor Lawrence lead

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Speaker 1: the league in passing at twenty two to one. Max

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Speaker 1: Crosby DPO WI Defensive Player of the Year seven to one.

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Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson to lead the league in sacks fourteen to one. Simon,

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Speaker 1: I'm adding Cooper Cup most receiving yards three. Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: talked about that on Green Dot Daily today. I loved it.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna add that into my list no more than

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Speaker 1: Jilly Tally Simon.

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Speaker 2: We gotta talk about a game.

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Speaker 1: Pa, Take then.

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Speaker 2: To the squee below.

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Speaker 1: Cannes City, Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs layoff rematch. I

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Speaker 1: want to remind you that this is the moment we

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Speaker 1: were convinced the Ravens were the right side in this

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Speaker 1: playoff game. This was the moment when the Ravens abandoned

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Speaker 1: the run game, reverted back to the habits that cost

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Speaker 1: them in years pass and lost the game. This was

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Speaker 1: the moment when we decided that there was no way

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Speaker 1: we could bet against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: even though we liked the Niners and they probably had

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Speaker 1: the better overall team, because no one wins betting against

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. Simon, please tell the listeners what we are

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Speaker 1: doing in this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going to be back Chad week one lines.

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Speaker 3: And what a great game to start with. I mean,

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Speaker 3: come on, NFL gave us a great game here. I

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Speaker 3: know a lot of people thought it would be the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs Houston, but I love that they're going with the.

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Speaker 2: AFC Championship games start the season off.

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Speaker 3: It's just like two teams that you know, not that

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Speaker 3: they are new identities, but they're not what they were

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Speaker 3: last year. I think the line reflects that, Chad, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is an eight point swing. That line

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Speaker 3: was five last year in the playoffs. Now it's plus three.

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Speaker 3: So clearly there's a lot of movement and a lot

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Speaker 3: of public perception here, and me and Chad are gonna

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Speaker 3: overthink this one.

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Speaker 2: If this was two and a half.

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Speaker 3: I bet you me and Chad would like the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: here because Evan He's I mean, just killed us with

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Speaker 3: that stat. At anytime, anytime you get my Homes under

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Speaker 3: a field goal, you take it. It doesn't matter if

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Speaker 3: it's two and a half or if he's a three

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Speaker 3: point dog. Long term, you just bet Mahomes. And that's

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Speaker 3: the exact scenario. On the flip side. Me and you

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Speaker 3: talk about all the time we bet Lamar as a dog.

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Speaker 3: I think this year we're gonna have many opportunities like this,

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Speaker 3: betting him as a dog, just because they are not

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Speaker 3: as strong as they were last year, right, I think

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Speaker 3: there are more questions across their offensive line and their

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Speaker 3: defensive line, Like there are question marks there, and now

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Speaker 3: you're throwing the loser McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks. It's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: their brilliant defensive coordinators left now and he's in Seattle.

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Speaker 2: What's this defense gonna look like this? Kyle Hamilton still

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Speaker 2: the same freedom, So a lot of unknowns here.

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Speaker 3: Luckily, this couldn't be one of our fives anyway, right

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Speaker 3: because this doesn't fit our contest criteria. So I feel

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Speaker 3: luckier because this would have been a hard decision. Honestly,

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Speaker 3: at two and a half, I might have been convinced

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Speaker 3: to put this one in chet. That's how that's how

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Speaker 3: strong I feel about Mahomes and this this Chief team

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Speaker 3: coming to this season. And that's my question mark to

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Speaker 3: this Ravens team. But plus three, come on, we're playing

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Speaker 3: the numbers, we're playing the odds.

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Speaker 2: We will take a little more at that number.

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Speaker 1: Se So I thing isn't our favor to play the

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Speaker 1: Ravens in this spot. We know we hate going against

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. And for the record, Patrick Mahomes, he's not

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Speaker 1: great as a favorite in his career, but you have

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Speaker 1: to discount the fact that so many of those games

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Speaker 1: when he is playing as a favorite, he is a

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Speaker 1: massive favorite. As a favorite of a field goal, He's

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Speaker 1: actually eleven and seven in his career. However, Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: twelve and one in his career as an underdog's past

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Speaker 1: over the past three seasons, seven and zero against the

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Speaker 1: spread as a dog. John Harbaugh, let's talk about Harbaugh

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Speaker 1: for a second. Okay, John Harbaugh, Like, this guy is

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Speaker 1: bonkers as a head coach. Can you name the most

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Speaker 1: profitable Week one NFL coach in the Action Labs database

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Speaker 1: going back twenty years? Simon, John.

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Speaker 4: John?

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Speaker 2: I remember I thought it was McVeigh because all those

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Speaker 2: years of gone.

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Speaker 1: Guy, I just set you up.

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Speaker 2: It's John freaking ar Harbal right.

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Speaker 1: John Harbaugh is so good on extra rest, big bad

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Speaker 1: John right, which is essentially, he's had ten months of preparation.

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Speaker 1: Ravens twenty seven and eight straight up, twenty thirteen and

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Speaker 1: two against the spread. If he looked just at Week one,

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Speaker 1: twelve and four, has failed to cover just once in

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Speaker 1: the past eight years. I know it's scary, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be asking you to do so many scary, gross, disgusting

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Speaker 1: things in this show. This is not the show where

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Speaker 1: we're going to tell you bet the Chiefs, bet the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys outright whatever, every single week. This is the show

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Speaker 1: where we tell you who to bet, no matter how

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Speaker 1: ugly it is. Bet the Ravens plus three up.

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Speaker 2: Gotta do it all right.

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Speaker 1: This is a pro joe game right now, and it's

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Speaker 1: interesting because the public is on the Packers and the

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Speaker 1: pros are on the Eagles. The game is lined at

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Speaker 1: two and a half Eagles minus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Got I got a lot of stuff like that are

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Speaker 1: applicable here. If you're looking at short dogs to start

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Speaker 1: the season, then you need to think about the fact

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Speaker 1: that favorites of by the way one to three and

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Speaker 1: a half, which both the Ravens and the Packers fit in.

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Speaker 1: They're terrible in September. That's all I'm going to say.

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Speaker 1: What do we think of the Packers here against your team,

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Speaker 1: against a team you think has the best roster in

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Speaker 1: the NFL?

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Speaker 3: Another game, though, if you could avoid, I'd avoid it,

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Speaker 3: like we're talking about a game in Brazil. It's truly.

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Speaker 3: This is a cash grab for the NFL, and it's

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Speaker 3: like too many unknowns are really trying to handicap it.

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Speaker 3: It's a ten hour flight, Like that's a big deal.

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Speaker 3: These guys are flying all the way down there, and

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Speaker 3: you know we talk all the time. Like the craziest

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Speaker 3: part about this game is the Eagles lose a home

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Speaker 3: game here to Green Bay and these are two teams

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Speaker 3: that we both talked about chat. We think these are

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Speaker 3: guys gonna be fighting for a playoff spot. So like

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Speaker 3: this week one game in Brazil might decide playoff scene.

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Speaker 3: It's a very bizarre scenario, so to me, like if

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Speaker 3: you're in a contest or I know a lot of

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Speaker 3: people already reached out to me they're pickpools.

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Speaker 2: This line locked a one and a half. That's pretty

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Speaker 2: good value.

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Speaker 3: Like if you want to roll the dice and you know,

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Speaker 3: take the one point one and a half points of

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Speaker 3: value and play this number, you can do it. I

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Speaker 3: think Chad's are the right mentality are saying, like if

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Speaker 3: this is three, why would you not take Green Bay

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Speaker 3: with the plus three? Like with all the unknowns and

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Speaker 3: the Eagles have new coordinators. It's Lafleor is a dog,

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Speaker 3: which Sheddy even mentioned, like Lafour is a dog, it's

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Speaker 3: been very profitful to us, even as Rogers years like

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Speaker 3: when he's a dog. It's a nice bet to make,

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Speaker 3: so to me, too many questions, I would even if

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Speaker 3: you had one and a half, I would honestly avoid

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Speaker 3: this one into the contest just because again it's in Brazil,

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Speaker 3: it's week one, and there's so many other things going on. Logistically,

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Speaker 3: I just I'd rather pass on this one and play

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Speaker 3: on more stable games here in America. So I definitely

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Speaker 3: definite cash grab for the league and you know, a

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Speaker 3: game that could have huge effects come January. So definitely

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Speaker 3: a great game though, right a spotlight game on a

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Speaker 3: Friday night. I don't want to complain about that, Like

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Speaker 3: I love we have a Thursday Friday game because that

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Speaker 3: was always the worst, right Chad, the two days in

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Speaker 3: between the Sunday. But yeah, still Eagles, Eagles fans, Green

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Speaker 3: Bay fans that are mad about this game.

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Speaker 2: I totally get it.

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Speaker 1: Matt before, second most profitable coach against the spread the

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Speaker 1: past five years, behind just Dan Campbell, And.

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Speaker 2: As honest as I can, I don't. I really don't

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Speaker 2: even know how to respond that, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm shocked by that.

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Speaker 1: Also in the first three weeks of the regular season.

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Speaker 1: So think about this for next week. Matt Lafloor thirteen

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread.

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Speaker 3: So again, just take the plus three, sad just laying

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Speaker 3: it out for you.

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Speaker 1: Take the plus three if you can get it. Right now,

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Speaker 1: It's a two and a half for me this game, like,

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Speaker 1: I don't really want to touch it. I just want

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Speaker 1: to watch it, enjoy it because I know that the

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Speaker 1: night before I'll need at least twenty four hours to recover.

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Speaker 1: All right, Now we can get into games that we know,

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Speaker 1: we can talk about putting in the contest. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: this first game is just it's testing everything about what

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Speaker 1: we believe and what we are seeing right now. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: plus three at Atlanta. We love Pittsburgh, we hate Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: We don't know anything about the new coach in this environment.

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Speaker 1: Rahuemoris for the Falcons. We love Mike Tomlin.

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Speaker 2: Football is our game. Our business is winning.

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Speaker 1: We don't like Russell Wilson, we don't like Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 1: but I don't want to get bet against Mike Tomlin.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget the short dog in week one. I just

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Speaker 1: read you the stat covering at a very consistent rate

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Speaker 1: sixty four percent since twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 2: You gotta win it.

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Speaker 1: That's we got a lot to say about this game.

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Speaker 1: But I want to hear your take first instinct.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the bookmakers.

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Speaker 3: I talked to you, Chad, this is another pros verse

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Speaker 3: shows the pros love.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, uh, Pittsburgh here and the public are really

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Speaker 3: heavy on Atlanta and you know, Chat just talk about

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Speaker 3: all the question marks with the Pittsburgh. This number is

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Speaker 3: bumped back up to three. It was down to two

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Speaker 3: and a half. But it's just kind of been all

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Speaker 3: a negative, right, Chat, This whole August kind of felt

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Speaker 3: like it's been negative for this Pittsburgh team.

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Speaker 2: Where to me, there's no other guy rather back than Domin.

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Speaker 3: When it's all negative, right, He's the best at just

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Speaker 3: canceling out the noise. So the fact that it's his

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Speaker 3: plus three, it's Kirk cousins first game coming off of

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Speaker 3: major surgery on his achilles, going against one of the

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Speaker 3: best pass rush and you know, defense is all football.

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Speaker 3: It's hard not to like Pittsburgh here at plus three.

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Speaker 3: But Chad's right, like there's a games across the board

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Speaker 3: that we might like better. But again, if this is Thursday, chat,

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Speaker 3: and we're going plus three and a half with Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: That's mighty tempting, my friend, Like, that's really tempting to

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Speaker 3: take that number with this defense, and I know your questions.

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Speaker 3: On offense, I think it's gonna be a light years

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Speaker 3: better than it was last year. Our negative view of

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Speaker 3: them is because their schedule is so brutal down towards

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Speaker 3: the end of the year. Yes, these are this is

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Speaker 3: the fluffy part, Like these are the games that Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: desperately needs to win.

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Speaker 2: I know Tomlin knows.

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Speaker 3: That, so you know, to me, I have a lot

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Speaker 3: more questions right now about Atlanta and what they're gonna be, right,

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Speaker 3: all these new pieces they add to their defense, all

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Speaker 3: these new systems, Like I kind of like Pittsburgh and.

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Speaker 2: A sneaky prop play.

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Speaker 3: I'll give out a couple here and there is Credell

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Speaker 3: Patterson over rushing yards like we even talk about they

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Speaker 3: have some injuries right now. The Pittsburgh to the running

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Speaker 3: back room. Kudel Patterson might be like their number two

301
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Speaker 3: running back in this game, and that's a great revenge

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Speaker 3: spot for him.

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Speaker 1: So, yes, there's a.

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Speaker 2: Lot to love with Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: I know it's tough to look at people here, but

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Speaker 3: you're forgetting how great of a defense this Pittsburgh team

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Speaker 3: does have.

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Speaker 1: Look, when TJ. Watt is playing, it's an entirely different team.

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Speaker 1: It's an entirely different team straight up, it's an entirely

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Speaker 1: different team against the spread. He's a game wrecker. We've

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Speaker 1: talked about Miles Garrett as sort of being a guy

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Speaker 1: that bookmakers have to account for when talking about the

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Speaker 1: spread and factoring in if he's playing or if he's

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Speaker 1: not playing, and that could be worth half a point

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Speaker 1: to a point. TJ. Watt doesn't get the same sort

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Speaker 1: of respect from bookmakers and downgrading the Steelers from a

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Speaker 1: point spread point of view, But there is a psychic

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Speaker 1: effect and there is a real on field effect to

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Speaker 1: how this team performs in both categories straight up and

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Speaker 1: against the spread. When he's on and when Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: is coaching. You got to take the Steelers and like

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Speaker 1: we've kind of talked ourselves into it that they will

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Speaker 1: be one of these six to seven teams on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: I want to hear what the sharp calls are about.

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Speaker 1: But don't forget Mike Tomlin as a dog most profitable

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Speaker 1: coach as an underdog the past twenty years.

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Speaker 2: All Right, hit that home dance.

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Speaker 1: I know we got a full slate. We have games

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Speaker 1: we really love. This may sneak into it. This will

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Speaker 1: be in the conversation.

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Speaker 3: Not at two and a half, right, but three and

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Speaker 3: a half if we get that extra half point in

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Speaker 3: our contest, Like, how do we not at least have

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Speaker 3: a discussion?

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Speaker 1: All right, Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Miami Dolphins. Right now,

336
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Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five, the Miami Dolphins are three

337
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Speaker 1: point favorites. Listen, when I started doing the script yesterday

338
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Speaker 1: and I was this beautiful day, It's Labor Day, seventy degrees.

339
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 1: I'm sitting on the patio, sitting next to my son.

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Speaker 1: He's working on his college essays. We're having like some

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Speaker 1: real good father son bonding and I'm thinking to myself,

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Speaker 1: I'm starting to like this game because we don't like

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins at all. We actually are down on the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins quite a bit. I think their defense is going

345
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Speaker 1: to suffer. I think they're lacking a lot of talent

346
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Speaker 1: on that side of the ball. Wattle, Jalen Wattle, and

347
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill have not practiced consistently during the preseason. We're

348
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Speaker 1: not huge fans of two. Uh, we're in on Trevor

349
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Speaker 1: Lawrence twenty two to one to lead the league in

350
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Speaker 1: passing yardage. Let me give you a stat road underdogs

351
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Speaker 1: week one one, thirteen ninety six and eight against the

352
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Speaker 1: spread over the past twenty years, so that's basically covering

353
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Speaker 1: around sixty percent. Basically teams that did not make the

354
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Speaker 1: playoffs that are underdogs, those teams are also sixty percent

355
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Speaker 1: against the spread. So I like the Jacks here.

356
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's unfortunate. Chat, this was three and a half

357
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Speaker 3: for three months. Some news came out the Wattle and

358
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 3: tyre Kill were a little banged up, so the number

359
00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 3: dipped down to three two and a half of a

360
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 3: couple of books. Now it's settled back into three, even

361
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 3: though those guys have been cleared for practice and they're

362
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Speaker 3: fully practicing.

363
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Speaker 2: But how are we not going to like the Jaguars

364
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Speaker 2: here right? Half Like the Jaguars.

365
00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 3: They do have a pass rush like we did we

366
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Speaker 3: talked about during when we're doing win totals, Like they

367
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,360
Speaker 3: have two guys that can get there. You know, Say

368
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 3: what you want about the Jaguars and their weakness in

369
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Speaker 3: the middle of the field right their linebacker position. But

370
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Speaker 3: they have some good edge rushers. And we're talking about

371
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Speaker 3: a Miami team that their offensive line is a weak

372
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Speaker 3: point for this team. Like, if you're spending all that

373
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Speaker 3: money on your number one, number two receiver and your quarterback,

374
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Speaker 3: you're gonna have to go cheap in other areas. And

375
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Speaker 3: one of the areas they went cheap is offensive line.

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Speaker 3: So the issue here, Chad is weather. Like finally some

377
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 3: weather talk, but Miami might have a monsoon for this game.

378
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 3: And we made a rule a year ago and it's

379
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 3: been good to us. We do not ever bet Trevor

380
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,560
Speaker 3: Lawrence when it's down pouring rain. The guy he fumbles

381
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Speaker 3: like this is a negative thing.

382
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 2: I know.

383
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,359
Speaker 3: Warren Sharp had an amazing article about it that he

384
00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 3: is one of the most turnover heavy quarterbacks when it

385
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 3: comes to fumbling, Like he's just a guy that when

386
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 3: the weather is bad, he does have major turnovers. So

387
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,200
Speaker 3: that to me is a like I was gonna make this.

388
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,360
Speaker 3: Simon says, I'm not going through just because I don't

389
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 3: want you to bet that now, and then me sending

390
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 3: out you know, talking on Thursday or some of the

391
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,679
Speaker 3: tweet out Saturday being like, Okay, the weather is supposed

392
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 3: to be terrible, but you know, to me, if we

393
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 3: have good weather, we're catching three, three and a half

394
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 3: with this Jaguars team, where I have this number at two,

395
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 3: So we're getting either a point of value or a

396
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 3: full point a half of value. I love the Jaguar especially.

397
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 3: We don't even talk about our offensive side, like all

398
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 3: their pieces are their offensively, everyone's fully healthy right now

399
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,440
Speaker 3: on the Jaguars team, where the sam can't be said

400
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,639
Speaker 3: for Miami. It feels like they're you know, coming in

401
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 3: a little banged up into this game. So I'm shocked

402
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 3: and someone went back up to three. I thought it

403
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 3: for sure it'd stayed down to two and a half.

404
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 3: But I'll take the value. I'll take the three on

405
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 3: the Jaguars team.

406
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, don't forget the Jags last year of mid season,

407
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: before Trevor Lawrence got hurt, they were leading the division

408
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 1: that was going to be their division, and there there's

409
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: a different conversation around the Texans if the Jags win

410
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: that division and Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt. So yeah,

411
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna take the Jags as long as there's not

412
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 1: a monsoon that's you're right. There are very few absolutes

413
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:03,959
Speaker 1: in life, Simon. One, you don't eat sushi that's been

414
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 1: sitting out for more than forty eight hours.

415
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 2: I'm a little nauseous. Yeah, that's outrageous.

416
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: Two, you don't bet Trevor Lawrence in a month. Soon

417
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 1: there you go. Also another absolute some people might have.

418
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 1: You don't bet on Daniel Jones and the New York

419
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 1: Football Giants. Fortunately, that's not one of our absolutes because

420
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 1: we have the vikings at the Giants, the Giants one

421
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 1: and a half point home underdogs. This is where we

422
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 1: start to ask people to do unpopular things.

423
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably give me a contest played people.

424
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Speaker 1: Yeah, you were so excited about it. I couldn't even

425
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 1: get the words out of my mouth.

426
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 2: It's gross.

427
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 3: I think the only grosser bet on the board might

428
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 3: be the Patriots like taking their points again Cincy, which

429
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 3: being might also do.

430
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 1: Is this going to be an exec decision of Foxhole?

431
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 1: As Simon says, right now.

432
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 3: I got Simon hasn't. Simon says, in mind, but I'm

433
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 3: worried you might steal it, so we can come back

434
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 3: to it if I have to. But yeah, this this

435
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 3: my view of this game is simple, Like we think

436
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 3: the Giants are severely undervalued. This is a team that

437
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 3: last year with Tommy de Vido got six wins like

438
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 3: Brian Dabel. Just the Hay's gone too far, too far

439
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,160
Speaker 3: for this this man and this team, Like of all

440
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: the teams Daniel Jones has had, this to me is

441
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,200
Speaker 3: the best team he's had. Right, He's got a legit

442
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 3: wep on the outside, which neighbors. If we're talking about

443
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 3: prop bets, you can get him over fifty five s

444
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 3: fifty five for sivien yards and prop bets. That's amazing.

445
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: His over reception now is five and a half. I

446
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 3: think it's plus one thirty. So this is a guy

447
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 3: that in just their Preseson game he played one half,

448
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 3: he had four catches for fifty yards. Like I feel

449
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 3: like they're gonna be forced feed Hi, especially against a

450
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 3: terrible secondary like Minnesota has. So there's a lot to

451
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 3: love there. And then the biggest one that Chad knows

452
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 3: is we're fading. Sam Donald's a row favorite. Like Chad

453
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 3: might hit you with these stats again, but historically we

454
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 3: make good money here betting against Sam Donald is a

455
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 3: road favorite. We always have, we always will and nothing

456
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 3: changes here, like at one point this guy and this

457
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 3: team will be severely undervalued and that we'll come back

458
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:19,360
Speaker 3: on the other side.

459
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: Right now, they're a darling to a lot of people.

460
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 3: Like if I open up the action app, the money,

461
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 3: the bets all there right now is on Minnesota on

462
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 3: the road. So yeah, I love love the Giants here

463
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 3: in this this spot chat, and it's definitely a pick

464
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: where you gotta hold your nose and take it.

465
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 1: This feels like a foxhole, like the money is on them,

466
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 1: the public is on them. This line, by the way,

467
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 1: Evan notes Evan Abrams are director of Research Brilliant Director

468
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 1: of Research who's a regular part of the show. He

469
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 1: notes in the chat that this line was at one

470
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: and a half by the Giants for one and a

471
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: half point favorites in May. This line actually recently got

472
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: down to pick just about I think it was Viking's

473
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 1: minus a half. It's good going back up to Vikings

474
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. I think there's a couple

475
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 1: of things going on. I think number one, I think

476
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 1: that people have a little bit of anti bias against

477
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 1: the Giants because of what they saw with that team

478
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: in Hard Knocks during the offseason, and that played heading

479
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 1: into the preseason. I think they just don't like the

480
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: Giants right now. I also think, you know, we have

481
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: talked about the Vikings. I have made the Vikings my

482
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 1: bet for worst record in the NFL this year, fifteen

483
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 1: to one. I think after they play the Giants, they

484
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 1: could go on a streak where they don't win another

485
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: game until two months into the year. As an underdog

486
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 1: in weeks one and two, dogs of one to six

487
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: and a half points covers sixty one percent since twenty sixteen.

488
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 1: That is profitable against the spread every single year the

489
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 1: last eight years. I think we're in the Foxhall a Tuesday.

490
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: Foxhall's do it. Let's climb down into the Foxhole.

491
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: Foxhole. We're in the Foxhole. You know what else? We're in, Simon,

492
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 1: At least I am today. I'm in my Tommy John

493
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 1: underwear that my wife got me as a gift. Long

494
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 1: before Tommy John was our new sponsor or. I was

495
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 1: coming to you live from our Tommy John home studio.

496
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: That's right. If you don't know, Tommy John is like

497
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: a second skin to me. It is so comfortable. It

498
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 1: is the only underwear I can wear around the house.

499
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: With nothing else on, where my wife and kids don't

500
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: say Dad, put something on because they're so focused on

501
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: how nice the underwear is. This is the Joe Burrow

502
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 1: of underwear. It is cool, it is comfortable, it never

503
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Speaker 1: lets you. It's just fantastic. So if you like Simon

504
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: and I, if you like this show, you'll love Tommy

505
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: and John. Today is the last day to get thirty

506
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Speaker 1: percent off at Tommy John's Big Labor Day sale at

507
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Speaker 1: Tommy john dot com slash favorites. Save thirty percent at

508
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Guys, I am enthusiastically

509
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 1: telling you I use this product. I love this product.

510
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: It is fantastic. We also we had a call with

511
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: the Tommy John people a couple weeks ago. I loved

512
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 1: the Tommy John people. They were enthusiastic about our enthusiasm.

513
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: I want everyone to enjoy themselves in Tommy John. All right,

514
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: let's get you like how excited I have about this

515
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: Tommy John right, all right, now, we got to talk

516
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: about something that I'm a little less excited about. Titan's

517
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: at Bears. We've had a couple of lines move just

518
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: this morning. That's how you know, we're into the week.

519
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: Is the Titans at the Bears was at four and

520
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: a half yesterday when I was doing my notes at

521
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: four this morning now is at three and a half?

522
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 1: Money coming in on the Titans. For the record, I

523
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: know you and I both bet the Titans at plus

524
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,199
Speaker 1: four and a half a while ago. I like it

525
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: less at three and a half. And if that's the contest,

526
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: it falls a little bit out of range for me

527
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: because I think we'll find some better numbers. But I

528
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 1: don't hate the Titans here.

529
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and jokes on me.

530
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 3: I actually bought out of my four and a half

531
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 3: position chat like two weeks ago on that woe because

532
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 3: I just I've come around in Chicago, like I like

533
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: this team and I think it's all about matchups with them.

534
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 3: Like if Titans had an incredible run blocking scheam, I'd

535
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 3: be on them because to me, that's going to be

536
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 3: your team's weakness. Like teams I can run the ball,

537
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 3: control the clock. That's going to be the weakness for

538
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 3: the Bears, right Keeping Williams out of a rhythm and

539
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: then not attacking your secondary. Your secondary is to me,

540
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 3: the best part of your defense. Like you guys, you

541
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 3: got incredible players at the corner position.

542
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 2: What does this team want to do?

543
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 3: Tennessee wants to push the ball downfield and they're historically

544
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 3: what we've seen from will Levis is an inconsistent guy

545
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 3: who you know, he gets flustered if it's third and eight.

546
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 3: Instead of trying to get those eight yards, he's trying

547
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 3: to get fifteen twenty yards. He's gonna fail doing that

548
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 3: against his Bears team. Chat so me, I'll wait now,

549
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 3: like I was gonna bet this at four and a half,

550
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 3: maybe the pros will keep hitting this and I'll get

551
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 3: a three and again I could get sharp calls on this.

552
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: And maybe I'm totally reading this wrong or wrong, but

553
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 3: I like the Bears here. Like to me, this isn't

554
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: a position to fade them. If you if you wanted

555
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 3: to talk me in to maybe fade them the first half,

556
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 3: that to me would make more sense, right.

557
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 2: I know, KiB william says he doesn't get nervous. Yeah

558
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 2: you do.

559
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 3: Everyone gets nervous, even you know guys who say they're

560
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 3: the coolest coolcom dude.

561
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 2: Ever. It's gonna be different.

562
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 3: He's gonna be walking on that field and how's he

563
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 3: not gonna feel the waight of the city on him, right,

564
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 3: That's that's gonna be an incredible moment for him.

565
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 2: It's a dream of his right.

566
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 3: He's gonna be run out of that tunnel to be

567
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 3: a starting quarterback in this league. So if you want

568
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 3: to talk to me in to taking Tennessee first half,

569
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: I get it. But full game, even if this is

570
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,640
Speaker 3: three and a half, who goes back up to four?

571
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: I'mna be taking Chicago. I just like this matchup for them.

572
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 3: I'm not saying, Chad, they're gonna blow them out here

573
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 3: in Chicago is going to be the most annoying fan

574
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 3: base of Week one, but I could see them rolling

575
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 3: like just defensively, they matchup great offensively as well.

576
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 2: Not trying to get too far ahead of it, but.

577
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: If this gets down to three and this is two

578
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 3: and a half, in contest, Chad, this this is easily

579
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 3: to to be the favorite we put.

580
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 4: In Chicago, Chicago at the title in town Chicago, Chicago,

581
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 4: I will show you around.

582
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 2: I love it.

583
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: You discussed me literally since May. You've been telling me,

584
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: don't get too excited about the Bears, don't put your

585
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: season one reason Bears had on We've talked about this

586
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: game so much we've talked about the Titans. I will

587
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: take take issue with one thing you said, we don't

588
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: really know what the Titans run blocking scheme is going

589
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 1: to be. I don't take that much away from what

590
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: we see in three preseason games. What I will tell

591
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: you is that, to me, one of the most interesting,

592
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: underrated and potentially important moves in the offseason from a

593
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: coaching point of view was Brian Callahan, who had been

594
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator for the Beankals, not the play caller,

595
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: but the offensive coordinator, new head coach for the Tennessee Titans.

596
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: One of the first hires he made his father, Bill Callahan.

597
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, Bill Callahan, is one of

598
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: the most respected offensive line coaches in the history of

599
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: the NFL. Everywhere he has gone as an offensive line coach,

600
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: his teams have dominated the run game, most recently in Cleveland.

601
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: Remember how often Cleveland was without Nick Chubb and how

602
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: often their running game continue to dominate. So I do

603
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: think there are going to be ways that they are

604
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: going to take advantage of the Bears weakness as a

605
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: run defense. I agree with you about their secondary. Their

606
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: secondary flies of the ball, and they're great, but there

607
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: are going to be opportunities and I don't think they're

608
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: going to want to put the ball in We'll and

609
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: Will Levis's hands. He's my you know, early in the season,

610
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: in this opportunity at home field for against the Bears

611
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: in Chicago. So I still like the Times four and

612
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: a half. I'm not buying out. I'm not afraid. I'm

613
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: not afraid.

614
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: Then you cannot be gloating any your next Tuesday. I

615
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 3: don't want to see any gloating by you next Tuesday, Simon.

616
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: I don't gloat. Yeah, right night, listen. It's my team,

617
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: but I'm not on the team. What do I get

618
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: if they win? I don't get anything. All right, Another

619
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:46,959
Speaker 1: line that's moving, and it's moved a bit since even yesterday.

620
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: Carolina at New Orleans. New Orleans was four and a half.

621
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: We've been hyping up the Carolina Panthers four months. You

622
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: haven't a non natural allegiance to losers. It's not like you.

623
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: We did a preseason futures version of Convince Me our

624
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: show on Sunday mornings live at eleven am, Action Network

625
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 1: YouTube and in the Action Network app me You, Chris Raybond,

626
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: Sean Crooner. The Panthers were basically in every segment some

627
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: combination of the Panthers and betting their overwin total whatever

628
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 1: it is, was constant. I bet the Panthers at four

629
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: and a half. I think the Saints are terrible. This

630
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: is going to be in our contest. Would you like

631
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: the floor to choose it for any other topical themed

632
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: named bet today? No.

633
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: I love this and I just want the season to

634
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: start so we can get a good number here. Because

635
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 3: this was five and a half. We talked about it

636
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 3: in May, and like you said, there's some books now

637
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 3: showing three and a half. Chat so this this a

638
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: pro game. The pros are gonna come in on this one.

639
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 3: There's so many games across the board. Why would anyone

640
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 3: bet this game?

641
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 2: Right?

642
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,239
Speaker 3: Like to me, that's that's why I love these kind

643
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 3: of games where it's just gonna be basically.

644
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 2: Pros versus pros.

645
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 3: There's some pros that are dugging on the Saints and

646
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 3: they think this team could win this division.

647
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: They're better than people realize.

648
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 3: And those other pros like us who we love Carolina

649
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 3: like we just like you said, we've we've been talking

650
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 3: about Chris has been talking about it. Brandon Anderson's been

651
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: talking about like, we like the Panthers this year and

652
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 3: this this starts right here like money money line round Robin.

653
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 3: People knew, you know, three months ago this was gonna

654
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 3: be on money on a round Robert for us.

655
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 2: We just love this Panthers team.

656
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 3: So looking at the matchups, you know, there are some

657
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 3: things that Saints could do to attack this team. Like

658
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 3: Chris Olave, if you want to take his prop is

659
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 3: over receiving yards. Totally get it. The Panthers might have

660
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 3: one of the worst secondaries in all of football. But offensively,

661
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: I don't know how the Saints are gonna be able

662
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 3: to stop this Panthers team. I know that sounds weird

663
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 3: coming off last year, but oh it.

664
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: Sounds weird as soon as he said that.

665
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 3: I know the Panthers they're going to be different than

666
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 3: when people are used to seeing last year, Like last

667
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 3: year they try to run a traditional standard offense, or

668
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: this year, I think we see a lot more four

669
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: wide out, five white out sets. Chat like this is

670
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: gonna be a team that's gonna spread it out and

671
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 3: they're really gonna run a West Coast offense. They're gonna

672
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 3: just dink and dunk on you and cut you a

673
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 3: thousand times. And this is a team that's still being

674
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 3: slept on. Like this number. I have it at three,

675
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 3: so now it's getting more closer to what it should be.

676
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: But like Chad just said, well, I'm looking at a

677
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 3: book right now, this is still four and a half.

678
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 3: So why would you not go get that four and

679
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: a half? You can still get it? Like this is

680
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 3: just this team's not as bad as we perceive. And

681
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna get blown out in this

682
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 3: opening week. Mean chat might be sending you a dun

683
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 3: Tats next Tuesday for love and this Panthers team so much,

684
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 3: but it is week one. We're not gonna react to it.

685
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 3: This is a divisional game. It's these things can't get

686
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 3: a little wonky. But I do feel very confident comfortable

687
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 3: taking this number. And mean Chat might have to lock

688
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: in our contest today just so we can get a

689
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: four and a half on this Panthers number.

690
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna we will lock in some picks. They

691
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,479
Speaker 1: won't be our official picks, but you know these numbers

692
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: in the contest favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com go sign up.

693
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: It's so much fun. Simon and I can't win the money,

694
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 1: but you still we still want to beat all of you,

695
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 1: and we take a lot of pride and in where

696
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: we are finishing in this contest. We will lock in

697
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: some games today. I'm just going to say it right now,

698
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 1: Panthers are my executive decision. Wow by boom.

699
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

700
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: Are you heavy?

701
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 5: Honors text acute executive decision. Look, we talked about the

702
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 5: heavy on the dogs. Right now we got to start

703
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 5: find it some favorites here disgusting.

704
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: Look, we talked about the trends, the non playoff dogs

705
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 1: in week one trend. We talked about the short dog

706
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: in week one, Division underdogs in week one since two

707
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: thousand to seventy one percent covering the spread by nearly

708
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: five points per game. Okay, all that is great. All

709
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 1: that is great. All of it supports betting the Panthers

710
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: even if we weren't higher on the Panthers. And I

711
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 1: do think this might be the best time to get

712
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: value on the Panthers because if they do win this week,

713
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: then that's gonna change in the week's going forward. And

714
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: now this is where we get to bash Dennis Allen

715
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:14,959
Speaker 1: because we hate Dennis Allen.

716
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: Can we get serious now?

717
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: We think Dennis Allen is a horrible, horrible, horrible coach.

718
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 1: We cannot figure out why the Saints hired him, what

719
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,240
Speaker 1: he has brought to the table to keep his job okay.

720
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: In his coaching career, he's twenty four and forty six

721
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:37,800
Speaker 1: straight up worst among all active head coaches. In five

722
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: years and seventy games of coaching, he is twenty two

723
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: games below five hundred, the only coaches since two thousand

724
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: two realignment to have seventy games or less under their

725
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: belt and be twenty two games below five hundred. Dennis Allen,

726
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: frich Shermer, Hugh Jaction, Steve Spagnolo, and Gus Bradley as

727
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: a favorite, Dennis Allen eight six team and one that

728
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 1: includes one to seven and one as a favorite in

729
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 1: his team's first four games of this season. And then

730
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 1: there's Derek Carr, who, by the way, is ranked one

731
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty fifth of one hundred and sixty six

732
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 1: quarterbacks against the spread, ahead of only Matt Ryan since

733
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:26,479
Speaker 1: two thousand four. Team. This is also a game where

734
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: I feel like the stakes are huge for us. We

735
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,879
Speaker 1: have been talking about the Panthers so much it has

736
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: to be one of our name brand bets. Executive decision,

737
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers.

738
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 2: Don't overreact like Chad. Though it's just week one.

739
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna love the Panthers throughout the season. I think

740
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 3: I'm with you. It definitely would hurt and be a

741
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,479
Speaker 3: little bit embarrassed. I think, to me, my biggest game,

742
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 3: especially money wise, deciding fact there, it's gonna be that

743
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 3: Giants Vikings game. Like, I have so much investment on

744
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 3: the Vikings just being bad. That's the kind of game

745
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 3: they lose that game win to on my drop to five,

746
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 3: five and a half, four and a half. That's a

747
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 3: huge game in that Vikings number.

748
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 1: Well, look, we've now we've identified the foxhole, we've identified

749
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: the exact decision. We still got. Assignmon says, we will,

750
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 1: by the way, go over your biggest bets on Thursday.

751
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 1: We got right now, no favorites on our list right now.

752
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus three, Jags plus three, Giants plus one and

753
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 1: a half, Carolina plus four. Okay, Arizona at Buffalo Buffalo

754
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 1: is a six point favorite. You love the Cardinals. Yeah,

755
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 1: I feel like the Cardinals have basically become the public

756
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:46,800
Speaker 1: darling for everybody who's following football. They love Kyler Murray,

757
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: they love Marvin Harrison Junior. They're hopeful this defense is better.

758
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: We saw some flash of life last year and a

759
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,760
Speaker 1: couple of big games for them. They have all the stats,

760
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: all the trends, everything we've talked about fits them. Are

761
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 1: we sucker at this point?

762
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 3: I'm definitely worried about the being a public dog. But

763
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 3: I've talked to a few bookmakers over the last couple

764
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 3: of weeks, and the Bills are one of the most

765
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 3: teased teams in all football. Like the Bills Cincinnati teaser.

766
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 3: If one of these legs gets broken, that's gonna be

767
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 3: a huge winner for the sports books because that's that's

768
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 3: one of the most teased games right now. Are those

769
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 3: two teams together? People just love the Bengals obviously. You know,

770
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 3: people still have doubts about Arizona. The biggest doubt is

771
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 3: their defense, and it's Josh Allen. Like Josh Allen, he's

772
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 3: just like Mahomes. He's not dead, like you got to

773
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 3: put ten bullets into his head to really kill the guy.

774
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 3: Like he just keeps fighting even when he loses games.

775
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 3: He only loses by a couple of points. Right, he

776
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: never gets blown out. That's why you know me and

777
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 3: you have so much respect for Josh. I think us

778
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 3: questioning them here is warranted though, right, Like, they have

779
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: a lot of moving pieces, they have a new identity.

780
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: They're gonna be a run for his team.

781
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: Is Josh gonna be more selective with his passing? Is

782
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 3: he still going to have those red zone turnovers that's

783
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 3: kind of plagued his career for so many years now,

784
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: It's like we have a lot of those questions with Arizona.

785
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 2: There's a lot of reasons why we love.

786
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 3: Them, Chad, Like they're this fun new, up and coming

787
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 3: team with a bunch of young, new talent that you know,

788
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 3: the Bills didn't reload like this like one other time

789
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 3: in all football. Is like a receiver being taken in

790
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 3: the top five with a quarterback that was a number

791
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 3: one pick and what happened Jamar Chase had like a thousand,

792
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,919
Speaker 3: three hundred yards and what thirteen touchdowns? So the bar

793
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 3: has been set very high from Marvin Ayerson. If we

794
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 3: if we bet this sad, we're kind of betting on

795
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 3: him to show up, right, Like, that's the only way

796
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 3: they can cover and kind of stay in this game

797
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 3: is if he shows up. So we're really heavy on

798
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 3: the dogs, right. I didn't realize we were so heavy

799
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: until we started talking here. I do have some coverage

800
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 3: coming up, don't worry people, But this number was seven

801
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: seven and a half. The pros have clear to come

802
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 3: in and some books he's down to five and a half.

803
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 3: So if we're still getting six six and a half

804
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 3: in contest, that's a pretty good number against the Again,

805
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 3: a team the Bills that we have a lot of

806
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 3: question marks.

807
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 2: It feels like we're always gonna.

808
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: Have opportunity for the backtory or with Kyler Murray, like

809
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: it's just the Bills defense isn't what he used to

810
00:39:59,000 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: be as well.

811
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 2: So you're you're right.

812
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 3: This is a team that back to back, going from

813
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: Carolina to them. These are two teams I really love

814
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 3: and have high hopes for, so it's kind of hard

815
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 3: not to not to take this one.

816
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 2: I just love this number.

817
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:18,359
Speaker 1: I'm riding with you on this one. I hear what

818
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: everybody is saying. There are a couple teams, especially in

819
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 1: the NFC West. I think you're high on Seattle, You're

820
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 1: high in Arizona. I have not been able to wrap

821
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: my head around either of those teams yet. But I'm

822
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 1: with you. I'm with you. You're my ride or die. So

823
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: this ends up in the contest. I'm with you one

824
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 1: hundred percent. The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same

825
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 1: way that they started it, with a.

826
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,439
Speaker 2: Die hard commitment. The Bengals battle tenaciously.

827
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: Pats at Cincy, New England at Cincinnati. Look, Cincinnati, We've

828
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 1: been talking about all off season, and we've been so

829
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: hopeful for this team. We've been so hopeful that this

830
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: is you know, Joe Burrow ends up being Patrick Mahomes kryptonite,

831
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 1: and that we got the Bengals around eighteen to one,

832
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 1: twenty to one to win the Super Bowl before their

833
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: odds have shrunk to about thirteen to one. I do

834
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: all of a sudden have concerns like Jamar Chase is

835
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 1: just fucking this whole thing up right. The Bengals finally

836
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 1: have Joe Burrow in camp, practicing for the first time

837
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 1: in years after having so many injuries and missing camp.

838
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: That leads to a very slow start for this team,

839
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: and every win is going to count for them in

840
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: a really hard division. And now Jamar Chase is doing

841
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: this hold in where you never know if he's going

842
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 1: to show up. We don't know if he's going to practice,

843
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: and now we don't even know if he's going to

844
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:41,720
Speaker 1: play this week. So I am a little bummed right now,

845
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 1: and it makes me want to take the Patriots with

846
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 1: a veteran quarterback who we kind of trust because it's

847
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: a big number, but I don't want to do it.

848
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 3: Do it.

849
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: I don't want to do it.

850
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, we probably won't force it, and even though we

851
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 3: probably should, because this is this is like you said,

852
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 3: this is nobody. Nobody is betting this Patriots team. I

853
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 3: think when they announced Brissette was gonna be the starter,

854
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 3: or dropped to eight and then quickly went right back

855
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,919
Speaker 3: up to nine at most books. So yeah, look looking

856
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 3: at a team that just every week the books are

857
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 3: going to need and we're probably gonna be get a

858
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 3: point or to a value. I'm not gonna be a

859
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: sucker like I was last with Carolina. Like I'm not

860
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 3: going to just keep betting these teams because that you know,

861
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 3: my model has this as two three points of value,

862
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 3: where right here I do like I think this number

863
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 3: should be lower closer to seven and a half, it's

864
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 3: all way up to nine. Like that's that's that really

865
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: is crazy for week one for a number being this big,

866
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 3: especially where you know the Patriots, as bad as they

867
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 3: might be, we have some questions right.

868
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: About since and that I think you touched on a

869
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 2: little bit.

870
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 3: We also have questions about their defense right now, like

871
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,439
Speaker 3: they're not going to be this, you know, juggering out

872
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 3: of a defense either. So that's a lot of point

873
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 3: for a defense that seems a little suspect to me.

874
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 3: But you're right, Yeah, there's other dogs I like better.

875
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 3: So as we say around two, we'll be passing on

876
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 3: this one for now.

877
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 1: A dog that we like a lot, Indianapolis Colts at

878
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: home plus two and a half hosting the Houston Texans.

879
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 1: I don't know how this one doesn't make it in

880
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 1: I know it, you know it. Division dogs seventy one

881
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: percent in week one since twenty fourteen. I said that

882
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 1: when we were talking about the Panthers Division home dogs

883
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 1: twenty five thirteen, the past twenty years, nine and two

884
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. Look, we are high on the Colts.

885
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 1: We're high on Anthony Richardson. We think he's the real deal.

886
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: We love Shane Steichn. We love the Colts largely because

887
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 1: of what we saw him do with Gardner Minshew in

888
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: that team last year. Give me the Colts plus two

889
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: and a half. Put it in the contest.

890
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 2: Let's go, Simon says. When Simon says, do it, we do.

891
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:57,280
Speaker 1: What Simon says, Simon says.

892
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 2: I know where you're going to take a chat now.

893
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: Honestly, I knew you wanted this one week scheme four

894
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 1: months so I knew you wanted this one.

895
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's we respect. We like Houston.

896
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,959
Speaker 3: What was Houston's weakness last year was going on the road.

897
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: I don't know if that's changed. What was another one

898
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 3: of their weaknesses playing against the Colts who played them

899
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 3: really tough with Gardon Minshew. Now we have our guy back,

900
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson, which I love. Alburne's panicking because he had,

901
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 3: you know, a rough go in the preseason. It's just

902
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 3: like it's the preseason. They're trying to work kinks out.

903
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 3: It was his first active game and you know, months

904
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 3: since he had been injured. So I'm excited about this chat.

905
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:36,359
Speaker 2: I'm hoping it.

906
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 3: Gets the three like this to me man, every like

907
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 3: I don't know, Sam, I've talked in the last two weeks. Chad,

908
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 3: this is the most most bed side of any side.

909
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not getting it. I don't think it's getting

910
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: to three because I think the book makers know the

911
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 1: second it gets to three, the wise guys are buying

912
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: it back.

913
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 3: That is again, all books are not great equally. Some

914
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 3: books need the pro money on the other side. You know,

915
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 3: they got to cut down that liability. That's why I'm

916
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 3: hoping they'll you know, I'll get a couple of calls

917
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 3: or a couple of texts, Hey, we're going to three

918
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 3: in the next hour. Do you want some of this action?

919
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 3: Like that's that's literally how I make my living, Chad.

920
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 3: These they reach out. I play the other side and

921
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: we kind of help help them weight the books down.

922
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,760
Speaker 3: So this is gonna keep going up, you know it is, Chad.

923
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: Ninety percent of the sports betters had not placed their

924
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 3: first bet yet. They will come Friday afternoon. Like that's

925
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 3: literally when the rush starts Friday into Sunday at one o'clock.

926
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 3: So you know, I have faith we might get that three.

927
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 3: I'm taking the two and a half right now because

928
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 3: what you just said, we're not the only ones that

929
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 3: know all these trends, and the pros will eventually be impatient,

930
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 3: like they want to lock their money up early in

931
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 3: the week.

932
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: They don't want to be going.

933
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 3: With the sportsbooks Friday, Saturday or Sunday, like this is

934
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 3: their kind of time to get the money in, so

935
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 3: grabbing it now just in case it does dip down.

936
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 3: But we love this game so much, Like I just

937
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 3: not only do I love the matchups, I just love

938
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 3: the idea of no one's in this cold steam of chance,

939
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,879
Speaker 3: right everyone's kind of them out where. It's just they're

940
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 3: not that far away from Houston. Like Great talked about

941
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 3: if Anthony Richardson does take that year two step. This

942
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 3: kid has all the tools, like he is so incredibly gifted.

943
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 3: This year with him is reps, Like the kid didn't

944
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 3: have enough reps in college. You got her last year,

945
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 3: Like just not enough reps. So understands people's hesitation here,

946
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 3: But I'm hoping they just play the numbers and the

947
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 3: trends where you're just giving out here. It's like these

948
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 3: first two weeks, I'm very heavy on trends Week one

949
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,280
Speaker 3: and two, Like there's plenty of trends you'll see next week.

950
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 3: That are moneymakers, like we bet them long term and

951
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 3: we will make money off it. Now, you know, I

952
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 3: had a couple of reach out there, like, well, you

953
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 3: told us to blindly bet this divisional home dog in

954
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 3: this spot, and I did it last year with the

955
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 3: Giants and we lost forty and nothing to the Cowboys. Guys,

956
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 3: there's no one hundred percent hit right here. Okay, there's

957
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 3: always going to be El's like, that's just how it is.

958
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 3: That's that's kind of why we call it gambling. Chad

959
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 3: just told you it's seventy percent, So okay, you have

960
00:46:57,600 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 3: a twenty nine percent chance of this not hitting.

961
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 2: Take those odds and run with it.

962
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 3: It's like, this is such a good number, especially now

963
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 3: that we're getting closer to that three and we already

964
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 3: talked about I love two and a half because two

965
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 3: and a half is such a key number. Now we

966
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,319
Speaker 3: see it time and time again. The extra point is

967
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 3: no guaranteed anymore. So Yeah, Simon says, two and a

968
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 3: half give me the Colts.

969
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, people need to remember we look at these trends,

970
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: and trends are huge. In the first two weeks of

971
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 1: the year. You need to start to see what these

972
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 1: teams are like.

973
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 2: You got it, because no one knows what these teams

974
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 2: are like. Right.

975
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 1: But also to your point, some of these trends fifty four,

976
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 1: fifty eight, sixty, it still means four out of ten times,

977
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 1: four and a half out of ten times.

978
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:36,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the dream.

979
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: You're still losing. But you got to bet at all

980
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 1: ten times in order to take advantage of that. That's why,

981
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 1: that's why you do it. So you just said the

982
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 1: colts were Simon says, I just want to I really

983
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 1: want to emphasize this right now. The three picks that

984
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: we've said we love that will most certainly end up

985
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 1: in the contest. And we haven't gotten to wear big

986
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: balls yet, but we will on Thursday.

987
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 2: Don't worry, I got favorites coming chat, don't you.

988
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:09,240
Speaker 1: Wis plus two and a half. Uh, Panthers plus four

989
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:13,879
Speaker 1: is the exec decision the New York Giants plus one

990
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:17,359
Speaker 1: and a half. So reminder, if you think no more,

991
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 1: we're we're telegraphing what we're putting in our context. This

992
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: is your chance to prove it that you know more

993
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: than we do. We love it. The Favorites Contest The

994
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them

995
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: Contest presented by bet three six five Minutes Back. It's

996
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,399
Speaker 1: free to play five picks against the spread every week.

997
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: One hundred and k in cash prizes up for grabs,

998
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Speaker 1: including the first place prize of forty thousand dollars. Sign

999
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Speaker 1: Up Favorites Dot Actionnetwork dot Com. Reminder, we know people

1000
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 1: had a problem signing up in the first week we

1001
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 1: were promoting it. Please go try to sign up again.

1002
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: We apologize. Top ten finishers get paid every single week.

1003
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 1: The first place finisher gets at that sign up at

1004
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 1: Favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com Denver at Seattle.

1005
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,399
Speaker 2: On at Denver, Broncoast.

1006
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 1: Seattle minus six. I don't have a feel for this game.

1007
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 1: You've liked both teams. I don't need to get ahead

1008
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: of the market on both teams. I feel like you're

1009
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: gonna tell me take the Seahawks.

1010
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:25,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna try. I'm trying not to overthink

1011
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 3: this one, Chad. I'm gonna take Seahawks here. I know I,

1012
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 3: me and you are both down on them just because

1013
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 3: their offensive line is what thirtyth thirty first ranked in

1014
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 3: the league. But the hope is here when you go

1015
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,479
Speaker 3: against a defense as bad as Denver, that don't matter,

1016
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 3: right Denver. I think they are great as a twenty

1017
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:46,839
Speaker 3: ninth defense head into the season and across the board offensively, Sure,

1018
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 3: we're excited for bow This is a really tough spot

1019
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:52,840
Speaker 3: to be your first start against the twelfth man and

1020
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 3: a d the new head coach is what we think,

1021
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 3: one of the best defensive minds in all football. So

1022
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 3: you know, Mike McDonald comes in here and it's it's

1023
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 3: gonna take a year. From what I've read and what

1024
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: I've heard from people that really have to know, it's

1025
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 3: gonna take a year for the Seattle defense to really

1026
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:09,320
Speaker 3: figure out his defensive scheme.

1027
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 2: Apparently it is tough, but you know they're gonna be prepared,

1028
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 2: and especially for a team like this where you know

1029
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 2: Sean Payne's not trying to reinvent the wheel. His offense

1030
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 2: is incredibly simple.

1031
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 3: For bone Nicks, it's all about how accurate and all

1032
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: the time can Bonicks be. I think with all the

1033
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 3: disguise and the Seahawks will throw it him and all

1034
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 3: the different looks.

1035
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 2: They'll be able to rattle this kid.

1036
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 3: And you know that's why this number is so Hi,

1037
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 3: I've got a couple people ask about this game, because

1038
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 3: this is another game that's really heavily teased. I said,

1039
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 3: I don't mind teasing the Seattle down, like I really

1040
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 3: honestly don't, just because I like this spot for this team,

1041
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 3: against this rookie quarterback on the road, and Evan gave

1042
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 3: us an amazing stat. This is why I'm not going

1043
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 3: to make this one of our five. The books have

1044
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 3: kind of built it into it, right. I think his

1045
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 3: stat was basically against the spread, rookie quarterbacks making their

1046
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 3: first roun on the road, They're twelve to thirteen against

1047
00:50:57,400 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 3: the spread. Where they struggle is on the money line.

1048
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 3: I just do not win in these spots. So this

1049
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 3: this to meet you out. Instead of being a contest game,

1050
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 3: this is a fun teaser game, Like this is a

1051
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:09,240
Speaker 3: game I'm definitely gonna throw on with teasers. We've already

1052
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 3: given you a bunch of great dogs with key numbers.

1053
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 3: You can tease the Panthers one if it's four and

1054
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 3: a half, you tease at six points. That's ten and

1055
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 3: a half. Like, that's a great teaser numbers. So same

1056
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 3: goes with Seattle here. I just I can't see Seattle

1057
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 3: losing this home opener at home against a rookie quarterback.

1058
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:28,759
Speaker 1: The Raiders at the Chargers. The Chargers are minus three.

1059
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 1: This is one that's interesting to me. You love the Raiders, Rose,

1060
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: you love the Raiders. The pros love the Raiders. Yeah,

1061
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:40,760
Speaker 1: right now, seventy percent of the money is on the Raiders.

1062
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 2: Damn.

1063
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,720
Speaker 1: Friends love the Raiders. The division dogs, the short dogs,

1064
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 1: the non playoff teams, fading small favorites, all of it

1065
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 1: loves the Raiders. I'm not a Raiders believer like you are.

1066
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 1: In fact, I probably have more faith than Jim Harbaugh. Yeah,

1067
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 1: I don't think this makes our final five.

1068
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 3: No, because of three and a half gone, and I

1069
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 3: did look in our contests. I believe it was two

1070
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 3: and a half, and I did love the three and

1071
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: a half. But you're right, like, we have so many

1072
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 3: other dogs right now. I honestly like them better than

1073
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 3: this one.

1074
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 2: But this is the start.

1075
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 3: Like, maybe I can convince you to throw in our

1076
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 3: money line around Robin, because this, to me is like,

1077
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 3: not that this dictates these two team seasons, but it

1078
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 3: feels like it's going to dictate a lot of people's perceptions.

1079
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,479
Speaker 3: And this is another game where it's like, the reason

1080
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:25,919
Speaker 3: I want to put the Raiders in this one because

1081
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 3: this wouldn't be the worst thing the Raiders did lose

1082
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 3: this one, because I would get amazing value on them

1083
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,399
Speaker 3: next week, which is like kind of where I want

1084
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 3: to take them anyway, because this is a tough spot

1085
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 3: right on the road here making this start, even though

1086
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 3: there should be more Raider fans right this is kind

1087
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 3: of a homecoming from going back to LA But like

1088
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 3: you just said, it's it's horrible, like this is going

1089
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 3: to be a totally new identity. We have no idea

1090
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 3: what this Chargers team is about to look like. And

1091
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 3: that's the scary thing is we're truly betting the unknown

1092
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 3: trying to.

1093
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 2: Go against it here, Chad. So I'm with you on it.

1094
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 2: It's like I'm happy waiting see especially the fact.

1095
00:52:57,960 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: That you know it was three and a half for

1096
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 3: three months and now it's gone as at three and

1097
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 3: I just don't think it's gona get back to three

1098
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 3: and a half.

1099
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I'll pass on this one.

1100
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,399
Speaker 1: Why would we put the Raiders in the contest when

1101
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 1: we can put the Giants or the Panthers, or the

1102
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 1: Cardinals or the Colts or you know, the Jaguars or

1103
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 1: the Steelers or anybody else like that. So why risk

1104
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:20,800
Speaker 1: it with the Raiders. We have so many sure things.

1105
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: Dallas at Cleveland Cleveland minus two and a half. In

1106
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 1: my heart, I want to bet the Browns as a

1107
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 1: short home favorite. The Browns defense was the most dominant

1108
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 1: home defense in NFL history. The Cowboys offense one of

1109
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 1: the most prolific in a generation. I think the Browns

1110
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 1: QB a suspect. I think the Cowboys coaches suspect. I

1111
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: think we have a full slate to choose from. I

1112
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 1: feel like all the trends back Dallas, but I think

1113
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,760
Speaker 1: the roster might back in the situation, might back the Browns.

1114
00:53:58,040 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 1: Kind of a pass for me.

1115
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,880
Speaker 2: I love Dallas here, I love Dallas.

1116
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 3: Kidding me, I was hoping he was going to get

1117
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 3: the three, but I don't think it's gonna get there.

1118
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just all right.

1119
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 3: It was functioning on Dallas the whole offseason, like their

1120
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 3: owner as a joke, Dak Prescott. The deal didn't get

1121
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,479
Speaker 3: worked out. This dude's playing on a one year deal.

1122
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 3: I get all the hate and everything like that, but

1123
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:27,959
Speaker 3: we're talking just on field. Deshaun Watson's played what ten

1124
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 3: games and four years? Chat, I mean, what are we

1125
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 3: talking about? I mean, I don't even how many games

1126
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 3: he's played. This guy he has not played at all.

1127
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 3: And when you see footage of him, he's just not

1128
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 3: throwing it right. Like even when they're practicing against air,

1129
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 3: which all in rhythm throws, it's supposed to be very simple,

1130
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 3: his throws are still ugly, still hitting guys in the feet,

1131
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 3: still throwing too high. It's like I've been watching film

1132
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:51,840
Speaker 3: with him for a month now, just because his injuries

1133
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 3: to his arm is a big deal, Like that's a

1134
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 3: big deal and it's their throwing shoulder. So you know,

1135
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:02,360
Speaker 3: I'm with you, Chad, Like if I can't get you

1136
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 3: there on Dallas, I totally get it, just because again

1137
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 3: we are so dog heavy, but Dallas is getting too

1138
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 3: much hate. Like Brown's defense at home last year was incredible?

1139
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 3: Does that translate back to back seasons? That was kind

1140
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 3: of an anomaly, Like that was just pure randomness that

1141
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 3: does stuff doesn't really carry weight season this season, especially

1142
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 3: when you look at the quarterbacks they face, Like this

1143
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 3: is a great spot for Dak because we said all

1144
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 3: the time Dak regular season. We love him like Dak

1145
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 3: in regular season is good to us. He covers for us,

1146
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 3: especially at home against bad teams. He covers big even

1147
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 3: on the road in these kind of spots. He's not

1148
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 3: that terrible, especially as a dog. So maybe I'll hit

1149
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 3: up Evan trying to get some ATS numbers to back

1150
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 3: it up. But I feel like we bet him usually

1151
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 3: in this spot, Dek like the hate's gone too far, Like.

1152
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:50,839
Speaker 2: This should be what it was.

1153
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 3: This was a pick and when CD held out, I

1154
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 3: was like, okay, move it up another point and a half,

1155
00:55:56,719 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 3: two and a half points, Like and Brown's Offecha just

1156
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 3: said they lost their savior on the offensive line. Their

1157
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 3: best offensive line coach is now in Tennessee. They have

1158
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:10,280
Speaker 3: injuries all across their offensive line. They're literally placing guys

1159
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: in and out there.

1160
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 2: So man, there's.

1161
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 3: A lot of questions, a lot of questions about this

1162
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:21,799
Speaker 3: Browns team. That's why I'm I'm willing to take this

1163
00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 3: two and a half. I just think the hate is

1164
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 3: carried over from the summer. It's the futures market, all

1165
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 3: this stuff that's all done with, Like we're talking just

1166
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 3: this season. I would take Dak here maybe late in

1167
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 3: the season. I would not take that in this situation,

1168
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:38,439
Speaker 3: but right here, I think this is a good number

1169
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 3: for this Dallas team.

1170
00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 1: All right, well, look, we got to put five in

1171
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 1: and right now we only got three games that we

1172
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,799
Speaker 1: really freaking hate, so we might as well add the

1173
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 1: Cowboys to the list. I don't have a strong opinion

1174
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 1: on it. I kind of want to pass, but I

1175
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 1: can be convinced based on what you're saying and your

1176
00:56:54,760 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 1: decided expertise. Here, Washington at Tampa Bay Temp Bay Buccaneers

1177
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 1: are three and a half point favorites in this game.

1178
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 1: I know there are trends about rookie quarterbacks going on

1179
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 1: the road, playing in their first game. It's not good,

1180
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 1: but so many other trends back the Commanders in this spot.

1181
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 1: The short road underdog, the underdog who was not in

1182
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 1: the playoffs, that is playing on the road as an underdog.

1183
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 1: I've mentioned all these already, I think the most important thing,

1184
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: and for people who are new to the show, we

1185
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 1: talk a lot about the Luck Rankings, which is this

1186
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 1: formula put together by the Action Analytics team. Sean Kerner,

1187
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, Billy Ward and Nick Giffin has been on

1188
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 1: the show talking about this. I'm not going to go

1189
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:51,919
Speaker 1: into detail on the formula. You should go to actionnetwork

1190
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: dot com. Look for luck Rankings type type Action Network

1191
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 1: Luck Rankings in your search bar. It'll come up for

1192
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. All you need to know is that

1193
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 1: the Bucks were one of the luckiest teams in the

1194
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 1: NFL last year. The Commanders were one of the most

1195
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 1: unlucky about in the bottom ten of unlucky situations. The

1196
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 1: delta for this game will be one of the bigger

1197
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 1: ones we see in week one. That alone makes me

1198
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 1: want to bet on the Commanders the Bucks. Look, we

1199
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 1: are fading the Bucks this year. We are taking there

1200
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 1: under I know Nick Giffin, he likes them to finish

1201
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: last in the NFC South. If you can find that that,

1202
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 1: this is gonna have to be on the table taking

1203
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 1: the Commanders.

1204
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 3: It's fair like it's the same thing with the Miami

1205
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:40,400
Speaker 3: Jackson gal They might be gained by those same storms

1206
00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 3: And it's like, what am I doing here? Like that's

1207
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 3: why you know the Jags game. I have a better

1208
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 3: feel for this one. I feel like a lot of

1209
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 3: stuff you said, I don't really have a feel for

1210
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 3: it where it's just like this this of offense for Washington.

1211
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 2: I don't know what they're about to be.

1212
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 3: Is this really going to be just the Terry McLaurin show,

1213
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 3: And it's just Jeane Daniel was force feeding him. And

1214
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 3: I'm happy to sit this one out, like I've I've id,

1215
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 3: I did bet this one.

1216
00:59:07,640 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 2: I did take Washington.

1217
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,440
Speaker 3: I think there were plus four, but I really never

1218
00:59:11,480 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 3: thought this would ever be one of our five. It's

1219
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 3: just like there's some other games I like and I

1220
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 3: have a feel for. With this one, I really feel

1221
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 3: like it's a ton of unknown and Chad just nailed.

1222
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 3: It's like I'm so negative and down the bucks. I

1223
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 3: might be totally missing on them right now. It's just

1224
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 3: everything I see it's not good, Like I already didn't

1225
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 3: like them from my model, and then I have Nick

1226
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:31,919
Speaker 3: Giffen coming in and give me all that luck stuff

1227
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 3: where it's like it's one of the luckiest teams in

1228
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 3: all football last year.

1229
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 2: That has to regress.

1230
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 3: So Chad's right, like I probably would still be on Washington.

1231
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 3: It's just they're down to plus three to a lot

1232
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 3: of books. Now, that's that's tough. Tough to take that

1233
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:47,439
Speaker 3: number there, So I'll pass on her for now.

1234
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 1: All right, two more games left. The Marquee matchups center

1235
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 1: a football miner football Rams are visiting the Lions, a

1236
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 1: playoff rematch. Lions or minus three and a half, Simon,

1237
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 1: I'm going to see you up again. I hope you

1238
01:00:03,920 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 1: get this one right. Who is the most profitable quarterback

1239
01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 1: against the spread in Week one over the past twenty years?

1240
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:15,920
Speaker 2: Well, I thought it was Sean McVeigh. I'm kidding. It's

1241
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: Jared Goff.

1242
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 1: Jared Goff seven and oh against the spread in his opener,

1243
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 1: four and oh straight up against the spread with the Rams,

1244
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 1: one and two straight out, three and zero against the

1245
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:32,440
Speaker 1: spread with the Lions. Who is the most profitable coach

1246
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: against the spread the past five years?

1247
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:39,160
Speaker 2: I mean, is it not Jim Harball?

1248
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: Dude? It's Dan Campbell. I already gave you the answer.

1249
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you have one ass cheek and

1250
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 2: three toes, I will beat your wraps numbers.

1251
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:53,960
Speaker 1: Look, we love the Rams. We love Matthew Stafford, we

1252
01:00:54,040 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 1: love Sean McVeigh. I really want to bet the Lions.

1253
01:00:57,520 --> 01:00:59,920
Speaker 2: Here, me too, I flish.

1254
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 3: I'm so sorry to everyone listening, our diehard fans. They

1255
01:01:04,520 --> 01:01:06,439
Speaker 3: probably bet the Rams with me months ago.

1256
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 2: I flipped.

1257
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:11,040
Speaker 3: I do love the Rams. I have questions about their

1258
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 3: offensive line. They have injuries, they're trying to fix fix

1259
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 3: it here head into Week one, and I think Detroit

1260
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,080
Speaker 3: is a pretty damn good d line. Then on top

1261
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 3: of that, they have they have a new kind of

1262
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 3: a new system here on defense, Like it's gonna be

1263
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 3: a different look for this Rams team defensively, and I

1264
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 3: think there couldn't be in a worse spot trying to

1265
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:29,560
Speaker 3: get fixed against this Detroit team.

1266
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 2: So I was I.

1267
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 3: Wanted to be on the Rams here, and I have

1268
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 3: flipped on Detroit. They're one of my favorite favorite picks.

1269
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 2: Obviously.

1270
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:41,520
Speaker 3: Our dream scenario chat is the public to come in

1271
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 3: or some pros to come in on the Rams and

1272
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 3: we can get this at three. That's why I wouldn't

1273
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 3: make the Simon says or anything like that. But if

1274
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 3: we come back on Thursday and this is a three,

1275
01:01:50,280 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 3: I'm tempted to put it in, brother like, even at

1276
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 3: three and a half. I don't hate putting in our

1277
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 3: contest as one of our favorites. So I definitely like

1278
01:01:57,120 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 3: this Detroit team in the spot.

1279
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 1: I love when you and I are mind melding so

1280
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:05,200
Speaker 1: early in this week, you know. Look, it's like, and

1281
01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:10,720
Speaker 1: we went through this in the conference division previews. I've

1282
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 1: been wanting to find reasons to fade the Rams all

1283
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 1: off season because yeah, well it's just like it felt

1284
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:23,480
Speaker 1: like there was too much hype and that the variance

1285
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: on their success is so wide because of the way

1286
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell coaches. And we saw that in the NFC

1287
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 1: title game, right Like, they're up by double digits in

1288
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 1: the first half and they lose the game because Dan

1289
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:48,680
Speaker 1: Campbell always takes the riskier position as a coach, always

1290
01:02:48,680 --> 01:02:52,360
Speaker 1: makes the riskier decision, even if analytically he's making the

1291
01:02:52,400 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 1: right call. When those don't pan out, the consequence is massive,

1292
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 1: and so I feel that eventually catches up with you.

1293
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 1: And so I wanted to and I felt like there

1294
01:03:03,200 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 1: was just too much hype, too much glow for the Lions.

1295
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:09,479
Speaker 1: But the problem is it's like a good stock. Their

1296
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:14,440
Speaker 1: fundamentals are so sound, Their offensive line is so good

1297
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson, and that defensive line is so good. Just

1298
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:21,120
Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage, they are as good as anybody,

1299
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:24,240
Speaker 1: if not better than anybody, As two units in the NFL.

1300
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 1: I want to bet them at home. I want to

1301
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:29,560
Speaker 1: bet Jared Goff, I want to bet on the fundamentals.

1302
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 1: Like I just like this team. I feel like it's

1303
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 1: going to be the one favorite that we end up

1304
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 1: putting into the contest. We still haven't settled on a

1305
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 1: big balls and we've already used like the Giants, the Panthers,

1306
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 1: the Colts as our other bets, so we still have

1307
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: to find the big balls. This could be it on Thursday.

1308
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 1: But that's interesting. I'm glad we both aligned on the Lions.

1309
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 1: All right. Look, Jets at Niners. This moving around too.

1310
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:03,520
Speaker 1: A lot of lines moving this morning, and this one

1311
01:04:03,560 --> 01:04:06,400
Speaker 1: is actually moving in an opposite direction than you and

1312
01:04:06,440 --> 01:04:08,240
Speaker 1: I would think it was three and a half? Was

1313
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 1: it five and a half in the off season? Yeah,

1314
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 1: got that all the way down yesterday to three and

1315
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 1: a half some buyback today, I think because of Trent

1316
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:21,320
Speaker 1: Williams is what I would imagine. Go ahead, give your take.

1317
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:24,400
Speaker 1: I know we both agree on this game, so you

1318
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 1: sort of share with the listeners where your head is at.

1319
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think listeners already know all my respect

1320
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 3: for Trent Williams and how big of a deal is

1321
01:04:32,120 --> 01:04:33,960
Speaker 3: the book show it too. They moved the lineup by

1322
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 3: a point like this, this guy is the best left

1323
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:37,280
Speaker 3: tackle in football.

1324
01:04:38,040 --> 01:04:40,520
Speaker 2: Their line is bad without them. We already talked about it.

1325
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, it doesn't matter all the miracles.

1326
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 3: You can run. You can run a run blocking scheme,

1327
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 3: you get an evention. You guys are be able to

1328
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 3: go and.

1329
01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 2: Pass pro and make blocks.

1330
01:04:48,560 --> 01:04:51,760
Speaker 3: And if you're losing him against team's number one DNS,

1331
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:55,600
Speaker 3: that would have been disastrous. So I'm excited for them

1332
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:59,080
Speaker 3: to getting the deal done. You know you that was

1333
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:01,320
Speaker 3: I'm happy got him too, because that's a huge dealt

1334
01:05:01,360 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 3: to this team at the end of today.

1335
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 2: I mean you talked about Trium Williams.

1336
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 3: Was the guy, like they had to get the deal done.

1337
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 3: They needed him in the building. Is a little too late,

1338
01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 3: like this is this.

1339
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 2: Is This game is in what five days? Six days?

1340
01:05:14,240 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 2: So I know they claimed us me in practice.

1341
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:18,640
Speaker 3: I've been checking social media since we've been here because

1342
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:20,120
Speaker 3: I want to see him if he's actually out there

1343
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 3: in pads while we're doing this show.

1344
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:24,720
Speaker 2: But I haven't seen yet. But that's a huge deal,

1345
01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:26,480
Speaker 2: Like what has he been up to?

1346
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 3: Like this, this guy who is thirty six just missed

1347
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 3: all these important reps and you go, well, he's a veteran,

1348
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 3: he probably would't have been doing that many reps anyway,

1349
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:39,440
Speaker 3: he'd been doing mental reps. That is a big deal

1350
01:05:39,520 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 3: him not being there like Nick Bosa, who you both respect,

1351
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 3: he said, NFL right till middle of the season. We've

1352
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,360
Speaker 3: heard this from other guys who've sat out camp and

1353
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 3: then come back. It's just different when you've missed all

1354
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 3: those reps. So for this game, I think I still

1355
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 3: like the Jets. Like I could easily bottom my position

1356
01:05:56,960 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 3: if I wanted to go on the forty nine ers

1357
01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 3: at this point, but like, you know, the Jets in

1358
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 3: this spot obviously, you know I wanted originally, I wanted

1359
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:07,439
Speaker 3: to be on the forty nine ers. I'm not gonna

1360
01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:09,440
Speaker 3: lie because I just thought the Jets love had gone

1361
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:11,040
Speaker 3: too far and I was like, this is gonna be

1362
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 3: such a nice spot to buy back going on this team.

1363
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 3: I think Evan gave us that amazing stat about the

1364
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:19,720
Speaker 3: Super Bowl hangover. Teams just historically struggle in this week

1365
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:22,919
Speaker 3: one team from the previous year, just because the expectations

1366
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 3: are that team from that Super Bowl run last year.

1367
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 3: This ain't that team, Like, even if they have a

1368
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 3: lot of the same guys, back. It's so different, especially

1369
01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:32,560
Speaker 3: you know, starting a new season. They're looking at They're

1370
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:34,120
Speaker 3: at the bottom of the mount route, right, I'll looking

1371
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:36,800
Speaker 3: at the very top. It's like it's totally different mentalities.

1372
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,920
Speaker 3: So I like the Jets like them at four and

1373
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 3: a half. Will this be one of our five?

1374
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:44,600
Speaker 2: Maybe? I don't know if I'm like.

1375
01:06:44,640 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 3: Dak and this just because of Aaron Rodgers factor, right,

1376
01:06:46,800 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 3: I think me you are at the same page with

1377
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers's like I kind of want to wait and

1378
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 3: see it, Like I wouldn't mind waiting to see it,

1379
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:57,440
Speaker 3: just because the Aaron Rodgers we all know and love.

1380
01:06:57,600 --> 01:07:00,200
Speaker 3: I mean, we really haven't seen in three years. Like

1381
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:01,960
Speaker 3: the last time we saw him play for a season,

1382
01:07:02,480 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 3: he was bad, and you know.

1383
01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 2: Last year we only got four plays.

1384
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 3: Everything I've seen in camp, he looks smooth and looks

1385
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:12,880
Speaker 3: like the old Rodgers, Like he looks ready. I don't

1386
01:07:12,920 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 3: know if I want to make it on my five

1387
01:07:14,240 --> 01:07:15,920
Speaker 3: because of that chat. So I don't know where you're

1388
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 3: at with that right now, but that would be my

1389
01:07:17,600 --> 01:07:21,400
Speaker 3: biggest hesitation is just Aaron Rodgers against this defense because

1390
01:07:21,560 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 3: I feel like we know we're gonna get for the

1391
01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 3: forty nine ers, like they're a Minimum'm gonna put up

1392
01:07:25,080 --> 01:07:28,520
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one points Ken Aaron Rodgers gets that twenty

1393
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 3: four points that that, to me is the question.

1394
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 1: So I agree with everything you've said. I think that

1395
01:07:33,720 --> 01:07:37,640
Speaker 1: if there is an advantage for the Jets, it's because

1396
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:41,920
Speaker 1: Trent Williams is signing so late in camp. I don't

1397
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:44,800
Speaker 1: forget Brendon I you signing so late in camp too.

1398
01:07:44,840 --> 01:07:46,920
Speaker 1: I do think that matters. And look that the Niners

1399
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:50,400
Speaker 1: will get it right. We are massive, Kyle Shannon.

1400
01:07:50,400 --> 01:07:52,400
Speaker 2: They're probably gonna be my number one power rated team

1401
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 2: in four weeks. But I think it's I think it's

1402
01:07:54,160 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 2: gonna take it, unbelie.

1403
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:57,000
Speaker 1: I think we get a little bit of value for

1404
01:07:57,040 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, and I think it's it's yeah,

1405
01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 1: I do think for I think the Jets end up

1406
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:08,360
Speaker 1: making it. They've got they've got some big balls potential,

1407
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 1: and for the second year in a row, we're going

1408
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 1: to have to go into money at football leading the

1409
01:08:13,880 --> 01:08:14,960
Speaker 1: freaking Jets.

1410
01:08:15,440 --> 01:08:16,280
Speaker 2: It's like keep.

1411
01:08:16,160 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 3: Going up though, Like rapport we just got from Teita,

1412
01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:21,680
Speaker 3: Rapport just reported Trent's in practice practice today. So if

1413
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 3: you want to wait, people, yeah, let's wait see if

1414
01:08:24,360 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 3: it goes up to five. If I've already grabbed the

1415
01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:27,560
Speaker 3: four and a half, so I'm already invested here in

1416
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:28,840
Speaker 3: the Jets. If you want to wait and see if

1417
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:31,200
Speaker 3: it keeps going up, let it, because this is going

1418
01:08:31,240 --> 01:08:32,439
Speaker 3: to be another heavily beat team.

1419
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: Like people have the same questions we do.

1420
01:08:34,120 --> 01:08:36,559
Speaker 3: I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers on the road in week

1421
01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:39,080
Speaker 3: one after he's not looked himself in a long time,

1422
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 3: so easily this number could keep going up.

1423
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:44,040
Speaker 1: By the way, from Evan, that's stat that you just

1424
01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:46,679
Speaker 1: mentioned super Bowl hangover the loser of the Super Bowl

1425
01:08:46,680 --> 01:08:51,280
Speaker 1: since two thousand in Week one the following season ten

1426
01:08:51,320 --> 01:08:54,200
Speaker 1: and fourteen straight up five and nineteen against the.

1427
01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:56,160
Speaker 2: Spread, five and nineteen, five.

1428
01:08:56,000 --> 01:08:58,519
Speaker 1: And nineteen four and nine against the spread when they

1429
01:08:58,520 --> 01:09:00,839
Speaker 1: are favored by over the field goal. So the Niners.

1430
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:03,760
Speaker 1: It's not a great trend for the Niners, which is

1431
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:07,799
Speaker 1: why I feel a little bit take Aaron Rodgers and

1432
01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:10,240
Speaker 1: the Jets and our history with the Jets and meeting

1433
01:09:10,280 --> 01:09:15,200
Speaker 1: the Jets last year to save our opening week in isolation,

1434
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:18,720
Speaker 1: this is a spot where you back the Jets.

1435
01:09:19,040 --> 01:09:20,559
Speaker 3: I love that still on your mind, that you're still

1436
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:22,679
Speaker 3: thinking about that last Monday was Zach Wilson.

1437
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:27,280
Speaker 1: Dude, that's hilarious. I can remember having lunch with a

1438
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:34,560
Speaker 1: buddy who worked at WWE, and he was leaving Stamford

1439
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,439
Speaker 1: to go back to LA and he and I had

1440
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 1: lunch that Monday, and I had to drive down to Stamford,

1441
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 1: which is about ninety minutes from my house, and I'm

1442
01:09:45,920 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 1: all I'm thinking about is that we went one in

1443
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:50,720
Speaker 1: three in the opening week and I'm feeling sick to

1444
01:09:50,800 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 1: my stomach, even though Action had had its greatest opening

1445
01:09:54,080 --> 01:09:57,800
Speaker 1: weekend for NFL across every platform ever. And then I

1446
01:09:57,800 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 1: got a drive back and I'm listening to Evan and

1447
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:04,320
Speaker 1: Joe Gallant on the wrap up pod for Monday, and

1448
01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 1: I'm trying to get my head in the game. And

1449
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 1: all I'm thinking is we need the Jets. And then

1450
01:10:08,560 --> 01:10:11,760
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers go down and like I wanted to crawl

1451
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:14,200
Speaker 1: into a hole, but you know what, it all worked out.

1452
01:10:14,520 --> 01:10:16,600
Speaker 2: You trust trust the numbers, brother.

1453
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:19,680
Speaker 1: Trust the numbers. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is

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Speaker 1: Don't miss Week one kickoff. Simon and I return with

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01:11:24,960 --> 01:11:27,160
Speaker 1: our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network

1476
01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 1: YouTube page Thursday, eleven am Eastern to cover our final

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01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:36,719
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