WEBVTT - Bill Hwang's Rise and Vicious Fall

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We are still trying to

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<v Speaker 1>make sense of Bill Wong and what prosecutors charge at

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<v Speaker 1>the hedge fund investor did plowing cash into a desperate

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<v Speaker 1>buying spree to prop up his artificially inflated stocks. As

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<v Speaker 1>our Matt Levine rights, let's get to it. Because Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>opinion columnist Matt Levine covers finance. He was an editor

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<v Speaker 1>of deal Breaker, Investment baker at Goldman and m and

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<v Speaker 1>a lawyer at Wachtel Lipton and a clerk for the

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<v Speaker 1>US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. And he

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<v Speaker 1>joins us now via zoom in New York City. And

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta say, Matt, we actually kind of want to

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<v Speaker 1>talk Twitter and Elon with you as well as this,

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<v Speaker 1>But let's start with Bill Juan because you have such

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<v Speaker 1>a great detailed column about what this guy actually did.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, what strikes you as like just trying to understand,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, his thinking and all of this. I just

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<v Speaker 1>really don't understand his thinking. Um. Yeah, as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>he bought he had he had a lot of money.

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<v Speaker 1>He was a former headphone manager. He borrowed a lot

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<v Speaker 1>more money from his banks, and he spent all of

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<v Speaker 1>it on buying about ten stocks. And he bought so

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<v Speaker 1>much of them that their stock that their prices went

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<v Speaker 1>up and up and up, and like it doubled in

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<v Speaker 1>some cases over the course of months. And uh. And

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<v Speaker 1>then he just you know, he had profits because he

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<v Speaker 1>had bought stocks that were going up, and he took

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<v Speaker 1>those profits and he rolled them into borrowing more money

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<v Speaker 1>and buying more of the same stocks. And so eventually

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<v Speaker 1>something went slightly wrong. You know, one of these companies

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<v Speaker 1>issued more stock in the stock went down. He got

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<v Speaker 1>margin calls from his banks because he borrowed all this money,

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<v Speaker 1>he didn't have any money left over, and so the

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<v Speaker 1>bank's liquidated all of his stocks that went back down,

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<v Speaker 1>and his fund was left with basically nothing, and some

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<v Speaker 1>of the banks lost a lot of money. Um, this

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't make any sense, you know, it's not a good trade.

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<v Speaker 1>Like if you do this, if you buy billions of

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<v Speaker 1>dollars of stock and the stock goes up and you

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<v Speaker 1>then take money out and spend it on buying a

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<v Speaker 1>yacht and sailing away, that makes sense. If you just

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<v Speaker 1>do it, and you keep plowing the money into the stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>including like on the last day when you're getting the

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<v Speaker 1>margin calls, he's spending even more money buying even more

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<v Speaker 1>of these stocks, all your money advantages at the end,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you just start left with kind of nothing

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<v Speaker 1>and and being arrested. But the thing is, as you write,

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<v Speaker 1>he's a really smart guy. He's really he's been in

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<v Speaker 1>the industry for years. Uh, what could I mean? Is

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<v Speaker 1>there any other end game that could have happened here?

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<v Speaker 1>Was this this bound to happen given given the way

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<v Speaker 1>he traded, you know one possibilities he did take some

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<v Speaker 1>profits out right, I mean, if you if you read

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<v Speaker 1>the indictment, it seems like to the very last minute,

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<v Speaker 1>Our Kagos was plying plowing all of its money into

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<v Speaker 1>uh into buying more of these stocks. Arkego is the

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<v Speaker 1>entity that he ran, it's his family office. But could

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<v Speaker 1>he have taken money out of Our Kagos at some

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<v Speaker 1>point and like buried in the backyard. That's possible. Another

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<v Speaker 1>possibility that someone suggested to me is that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the stocks that he was buying were

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<v Speaker 1>heavily shorted stocks, and it's possible that he was trying

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<v Speaker 1>to do a short squeeze where eventually the short sellers

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<v Speaker 1>would have no choice but to buy back the stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>and they buy them back from him, and even higher prices,

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<v Speaker 1>and he'd make you know, tens of billions of dollars um.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems like a very strange trade to do in

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<v Speaker 1>this size and for that long. But you know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>one thing he could have been thinking. If you could

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<v Speaker 1>sit down with him, fly on the wall or something,

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<v Speaker 1>or in a conversation, well, what would be the question

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<v Speaker 1>you would ask him, because, as you said, smart guy

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<v Speaker 1>knows how the market works, And yeah, I would ask

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<v Speaker 1>him what he thought his end game was. The other

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<v Speaker 1>the other possibility, by the way, and this one sort

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<v Speaker 1>of sounds absurd but is in some ways very straightforward.

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<v Speaker 1>The other possibility is that he just thought these stocks

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<v Speaker 1>were really good stocks and he thought they'd go up,

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<v Speaker 1>and so he bought as he could have them. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the indictment, if you read like with the SEC and

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<v Speaker 1>the Justice Department say, they say that he had stopped

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<v Speaker 1>talking to his investment analysts and he just spent all

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<v Speaker 1>day with the traders to buy more and more stock,

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<v Speaker 1>and he didn't really care about what his research analysts

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<v Speaker 1>said about these companies. But like you know, when possibility

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<v Speaker 1>is he thought these were just really good stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>he wanted to buy as much as he could have them.

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<v Speaker 1>So does that tell you in the government's eyes, he

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<v Speaker 1>didn't necessarily think they were really good stocks because he

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't doing that. The government thinks he didn't think that.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, like it's a weird thing because like he's

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<v Speaker 1>charged with stock with market manipulation, and it's very unclear

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<v Speaker 1>what that is. Right, Like, if you buy stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>the stocks go up, someone could say that you manipulated

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<v Speaker 1>the stocks. But also just anytime anyone buy stocks, they're

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<v Speaker 1>likely to go up. Right, Buying pressure is what makes

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<v Speaker 1>stock to go up, and so the different stock, I

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<v Speaker 1>kind of hope it goes up. Well, you certainly you

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<v Speaker 1>hope it goes up. But if you buy a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the stock, you're buying activity itself will push up

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<v Speaker 1>the stock. What doesn't make it a crime, But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>exactly our June Grosso are legal analysts and who hosted

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Glass. She said, I don't understand exactly what he

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<v Speaker 1>did wrong. He was buying shares like you understand the

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<v Speaker 1>lying and stuff right to regulators not so good. But

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<v Speaker 1>the different The question of whether it's market manipulation is

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<v Speaker 1>just one of intent. Like if he was sitting there thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to buy these stocks to make them go up,

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<v Speaker 1>then that is I think the government would would would

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<v Speaker 1>successfully argue market manipulation. If he was buying the stocks

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<v Speaker 1>because he thought they were good stocks, even though they

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<v Speaker 1>then did go up, Um, then it's not market manipulation.

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<v Speaker 1>And often in these cases you see like chatlogs where

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<v Speaker 1>people are just typing to their buddies all day. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>manipulating the market. Hope I don't go to jail, and

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have that here, And maybe they will, right,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe they will find evidence of his intent. But as

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<v Speaker 1>of right now, and they have cooperators and they've you know, invested,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've gotten some of the transcripts of his messages,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't seem like there's anything like that where he's

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<v Speaker 1>saying that he's doing something wrong. Hey, just got forty seconds,

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<v Speaker 1>real quickly. We did get a headline earlier that Musk's

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter share purchases under an FTC probe, according to those

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<v Speaker 1>in the know. What are you real quick thoughts on Twitter?

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk? Um? I don't know. I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that every every big merger goes through some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>antitrust review, but I would be surprised if there is

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<v Speaker 1>a big issue here. But I don't know. Um. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you think he's going to ultimately finish the deal? I do.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's a dred percent probable, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think people are underestimating how locked up the deal is

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<v Speaker 1>and how likely he is to get the financing. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think it's by any means certain, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>he is much more likely than not going to complete

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<v Speaker 1>the deal. Well, we love reading your columns. We learned

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<v Speaker 1>so much the way Tim said. Tim came into the

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<v Speaker 1>studios like the way Matt lays out what Bill Wong

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<v Speaker 1>did just really made such made sense to me. Matt,

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<v Speaker 1>so definitely appreciate you taking the time to join us.

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Levine, columnists for Bloomberg Opinion, joining us via zoom

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<v Speaker 1>from New York. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta say, Tim, it's not easy being a company today.

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<v Speaker 1>Employees and consumers and customers, and Vester's kind of wanting

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<v Speaker 1>you to take a stand on important issues sometimes. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and then there's the whole you know, maybe quote unquote

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<v Speaker 1>problem of high level executives using Twitter. Yeah, it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>always work out. Well, Well, that's sort of uh. We're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about this because if you recall, it's a story

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<v Speaker 1>that centers around a Levi's executive. You might have heard

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<v Speaker 1>of her over the last few months, who's no longer

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<v Speaker 1>ad Levi's. Well, our own Claire said, columnist at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week who joins us now on the phone from Brooklyn,

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<v Speaker 1>is the author of that story, Levi's finding itself thrust

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<v Speaker 1>into the culture wars by a rogue executive joining us

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<v Speaker 1>now is Claire along with Joel Webber, editor at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week. He joined us on the access line from Brooklyn. Joel.

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<v Speaker 1>I think for a lot of people, they might not

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<v Speaker 1>know the name Jennifer Say or did not know it

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<v Speaker 1>until just a few weeks ago. Uh, despite the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that she's been a high level executive at Levi's for

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<v Speaker 1>quite a bit of time. Yeah, Jennifer Say rose through

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<v Speaker 1>the ranks at Levi's for for years actually, and eventually

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<v Speaker 1>became a brand president and was in charge of Levi's

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<v Speaker 1>uh marketing. She was the chief marketing officer, so that

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<v Speaker 1>it which basically set her up to to be potentially

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<v Speaker 1>the next CEO at the company. And she was very

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<v Speaker 1>very good at her job. And where the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>the world. Um, maybe you've heard of Levi's and um,

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<v Speaker 1>uh there's just since that's you know, basically an old

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<v Speaker 1>school Americana brand that she helped turn around. Frankly. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>but if you hadn't heard of Jennifer Say, you may have.

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<v Speaker 1>When all of a sudden in February, um, a spat

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<v Speaker 1>between her and the company, uh became the reason that

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<v Speaker 1>she left, and that made us very interested in her

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<v Speaker 1>and Claire said, us immediately started going on a bigger

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<v Speaker 1>story and what what Um, what she found I think

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<v Speaker 1>is pretty remarkable, and it's really this complete tale of

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<v Speaker 1>Jennifer's sort of transformation inside Levi's. And it also gets

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<v Speaker 1>to the bigger story that I think we're all really

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<v Speaker 1>interested in right now in corporate America, which is this

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<v Speaker 1>tension between um companies their images, the tension that social

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<v Speaker 1>media creates. And you just think of Coke Disney. Now

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<v Speaker 1>this we'll talk more about Levi's here. This is a

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<v Speaker 1>challenge for all kinds of American companies all of a sudden.

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<v Speaker 1>So Claire, tell us about Jennifer and what you learned.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously this was all over the headlines, but you dug deeper,

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<v Speaker 1>what would you find out? Um? Well, you know, like

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<v Speaker 1>you said, Jennifer was the head um of Levi's marketing,

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<v Speaker 1>so all the advertising, marketing, branding Levi's, that's what she

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<v Speaker 1>was in charge of the company for years. Was also

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly progressive, um, you know, back way back until the

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen thirties. You know it more recently in the past

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<v Speaker 1>decade or so, they've come out in favook gun control, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, marriage equality, transgender rights, etcetera, etcetera. UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>she was also part of executive team that's sort of

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<v Speaker 1>shaped that narrative and talked about, you know, when it

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<v Speaker 1>was appropriate for Levi's to say something and in what way. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But then during the pandemic, you know, we've all found

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic really hard, and she was stuck at home

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<v Speaker 1>with four kids, and so she started tweeting her views

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<v Speaker 1>on covid UM. But they were, I would say, rather contrarians, UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, as early as April, she was calling

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<v Speaker 1>for the country to open back up. Her pet topic

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<v Speaker 1>was UM school reopenings, which you know, now kids are

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<v Speaker 1>back in the classroom now. But in when no one

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<v Speaker 1>really understood the virus it was, it was much more controversial.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, within Levi's employees started to become really

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<v Speaker 1>upset and and saying internally to hr to legal, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>the CEO himself, you know, why do we have an

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<v Speaker 1>executive who's saying all this keepoff on Twitter? Some of

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<v Speaker 1>it is in direct contradiction to company policy. UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>it was like a two year long internal struggle of

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<v Speaker 1>Levis trying to handle the diplomatically internally. UM. Ultimately, I

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<v Speaker 1>told her she couldn't hold her position as brand president

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<v Speaker 1>and she'd never be CEO, And so she quit in

0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:17.479
<v Speaker 1>a very dramatic fashion and said that she had been silenced.

0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:19.800
<v Speaker 1>So what's interesting clear too? I mean, as you note

0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.760
<v Speaker 1>in your reporting, I mean Levi's is known for being

0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.959
<v Speaker 1>a pretty progressive company for years and taking positions on

0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:33.920
<v Speaker 1>controversial issues. Yeah, and that was sort of Um, Jennifer says.

0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Argument is is, you know, if I speaks out on

0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:38.360
<v Speaker 1>so many things, why was it not okay for me

0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:42.800
<v Speaker 1>to speak out about covid um? But I think you

0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:47.079
<v Speaker 1>know that issue is really you know, one executive going

0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:50.400
<v Speaker 1>one way and all these employees to sort of rank

0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:53.920
<v Speaker 1>and file employees saying we do not agree with this,

0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.439
<v Speaker 1>we don't like this. You know, they had town hall meetings,

0:11:56.640 --> 0:12:00.600
<v Speaker 1>she went on Laura Ingram's show on Fox News. People

0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.040
<v Speaker 1>didn't like that, um, and they were saying, you know

0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.520
<v Speaker 1>why is why is the Levice executive talking to Laura

0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:09.960
<v Speaker 1>Ingram when Lama Ingram has explicitly said things that this

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>company stands in contradiction to. You know, she can I

0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:16.000
<v Speaker 1>just jump in? Didn't she know she was going to

0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:17.880
<v Speaker 1>get into no friends? But she seems like a pretty

0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:21.800
<v Speaker 1>smart lady and understands branding and marketing. Didn't she understand

0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.760
<v Speaker 1>despite understanding it was a progressive company, know that by

0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:29.520
<v Speaker 1>going on Fox you send pretty much a clear message,

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.000
<v Speaker 1>and you do because of the company you work for

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.840
<v Speaker 1>that it's going to come back at the company. Well,

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.480
<v Speaker 1>when I talked to her, she said, Um, she didn't

0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.400
<v Speaker 1>know really anything about Laura Ingram. She never watched Fox nude,

0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:49.240
<v Speaker 1>and but she was the person who oversaw Levi's advertising budget,

0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:51.720
<v Speaker 1>and and and just was in charge of marketing and

0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:53.760
<v Speaker 1>had her finger on the also the culture that it

0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 1>seemed you know, it required a leap of faith for

0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 1>me to take her at face value and think that

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 1>that was really the case. But that was her claim,

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:07.520
<v Speaker 1>is like she didn't she didn't really know, She didn't

0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:09.600
<v Speaker 1>realize why this is such a big deal. And and

0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:12.600
<v Speaker 1>also she said, you know, just because she's Laura Ingram

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.680
<v Speaker 1>has said all these other things, why can't I talk

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.160
<v Speaker 1>to her about what I care about, which is pool reopening? Um?

0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:25.480
<v Speaker 1>And employees were not having that excuse UM, clear, I'm interested. Um,

0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:29.719
<v Speaker 1>because so many companies find themselves thrust into the culture wars. Now,

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 1>what what if any were the takeaways at Levi's after

0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 1>this is all, you know, they get sucked into this,

0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:38.840
<v Speaker 1>this fight that they maybe didn't necessarily want to have,

0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:40.800
<v Speaker 1>like what are they what are the takeaways? And what

0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 1>our companies to do? And just got about Well, it's

0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.080
<v Speaker 1>funny because when I talked to Levi's about this, they

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:48.360
<v Speaker 1>were like, you know, this is a kind of a

0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 1>unique situation. Most of the time, UM, companies cultures thrown

0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.319
<v Speaker 1>into the culture wards or because the company did something

0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.760
<v Speaker 1>and people get upset, and this is one person internally

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.560
<v Speaker 1>in the company. UM, And so it was sort of

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:04.400
<v Speaker 1>a lose lose situation. If they'd ignored their employees, maybe

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:06.680
<v Speaker 1>their employees to speak out UM and said they listened

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:10.200
<v Speaker 1>to them, and then the executive spoke out. UM. I

0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.959
<v Speaker 1>think what the takeaway is is this is incredibly hard

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 1>and one day you might find yourself based with the

0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.240
<v Speaker 1>public scandal. Well, just talk to Bob Chapeck right now,

0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:23.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure, yes, some thoughts on that. UM, A really

0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 1>great story, Thank you so much. Business Week columnists Claire

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 1>set up joining us on the phone from Brooklyn of

0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:30.560
<v Speaker 1>Chris Joe Webber, editor of Bloomberg business Week, on the

0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.880
<v Speaker 1>Access line in Brooklyn. Be sure to check out the

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.480
<v Speaker 1>new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. It is on newsstands,

0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.480
<v Speaker 1>online at Bloomberg dot com, business Week dot com, and

0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 1>of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Yeah. One part of

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.040
<v Speaker 1>the story that Claire really gets into, and this is

0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.800
<v Speaker 1>Levi's long history of being early when it comes to

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 1>progressive causes, being the first company to offer same benefits

0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>to you know, same sex partners sans for women for

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 1>women in the nineteen twenties, I think nineteen forties. Yeah. Yeah,

0:14:56.520 --> 0:15:02.440
<v Speaker 1>it's a great read. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:06.640
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:10.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Here's a Mattel. They shot up yesterday, their

0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.440
<v Speaker 1>biggest gaining about eighteen months, ending with about an eleven

0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:17.480
<v Speaker 1>percent gain. Their up again today two percent, following their

0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:20.120
<v Speaker 1>latest earnings report, first quarter earnings last night that top

0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.640
<v Speaker 1>to estimates thanks to Barbie and Hot Wheel sales that

0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:26.240
<v Speaker 1>defy the usual seasonal slow down. We are delighted to

0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:28.680
<v Speaker 1>have back with us, Mattel chairman and CEO, Enan cries

0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:32.400
<v Speaker 1>via zoom in California. You're not so nice to have

0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.840
<v Speaker 1>you How are you great, Carol. Thank you for having me. Well,

0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 1>it's wonderful to have you here. We are going to

0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.120
<v Speaker 1>talk about the quarter, but you know where I'm going

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>to go. Um. We all kind of sat up a

0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.880
<v Speaker 1>little straighter when that headline crossed, uh that there could

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.760
<v Speaker 1>be a possible buy out private equity interested. What can

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.840
<v Speaker 1>you tell us about that? Well, as you expect, we

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:58.160
<v Speaker 1>don't comment on speculation and we're focused on executing our strategy.

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 1>What I can say is this was the highest first

0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:06.520
<v Speaker 1>quarter we have on record, both revenue and profitability. Our

0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:10.480
<v Speaker 1>momentum continued across the business with double digit growth in Barbie,

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.680
<v Speaker 1>hot Woods and Fisher Price. We have started the second

0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:18.400
<v Speaker 1>quarter with strong consumer demand. The Follier outlook is also strong,

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 1>and we expect to grow market here. So all in all,

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 1>an excellent start of the year and we're firmly in

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 1>growth mode. And I think we highlighted yesterday. I mean,

0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:32.240
<v Speaker 1>you guys have been on a tear. If I look

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:33.960
<v Speaker 1>at you know, the share price in terms of the

0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 1>moves that you guys have been doing specifically. Um, some

0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 1>would say, and I'm going to push a little bit

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>that you are setting it up for a sale. Are

0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:48.200
<v Speaker 1>you talking with people? Are there conversations going on? But

0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:52.080
<v Speaker 1>I can't comment on the speculation. But we've been consistently

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:55.440
<v Speaker 1>growing the company, UH, and this has happened over the

0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 1>last four years. You followed the story, so you know

0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:02.480
<v Speaker 1>that we took our said ida from a six million

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.719
<v Speaker 1>dollars in two thousand and seventeen to over a billion

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 1>and guided fo yet another growth this year with higher

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:15.160
<v Speaker 1>goals three. So this is not a one quarter situation.

0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>This has been consistent delivery and execution on a on

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.600
<v Speaker 1>a clear strategy and a clear roadmap with tracking weale

0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:25.600
<v Speaker 1>and we are in a great position to continue to

0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:27.640
<v Speaker 1>grow the company. And I will point out that from

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:32.400
<v Speaker 1>the end of the stock is up almost so investors

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:36.080
<v Speaker 1>have certainly noticed that performance in those changes. On one

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.199
<v Speaker 1>element that you've had to UH deal with just not

0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 1>just over the last year, but over the last few quarters,

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 1>to our inflationary pressures on the supply chain. We've spoken

0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 1>to you in the company in past quarters about moves

0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.800
<v Speaker 1>that you've made to try to make sure that your

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.320
<v Speaker 1>supply chain remains intact. What you've been able to do

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.440
<v Speaker 1>ahead of time, but it doesn't mean you've been immune

0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:57.920
<v Speaker 1>to higher prices. Talk to us about the pricing power

0:17:57.960 --> 0:17:59.600
<v Speaker 1>that you've had and how much you've had to raise

0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:04.440
<v Speaker 1>prices and how consumers are being affected by that. Yeah.

0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:09.119
<v Speaker 1>We you know, given the anticipated inflation, implementing pricing action

0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:12.480
<v Speaker 1>UM is one of the things we consider at times

0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:16.640
<v Speaker 1>of of of inflationary pressures. Uh. We're not the only ones,

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.320
<v Speaker 1>and it's not unique to the toy industry. UH. And

0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:22.480
<v Speaker 1>this is something that we've done, like in the second

0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:24.919
<v Speaker 1>half of last year, and we expect to do that

0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:28.960
<v Speaker 1>again uh in the second half of this year. It's

0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:33.440
<v Speaker 1>important to say that when raising prices, we always keep

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 1>the consumer in mind, and we're being very thoughtful and

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:41.080
<v Speaker 1>very strategic and remain strategically committed to maintaining the right

0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:46.520
<v Speaker 1>balance between quality and value for our consumers. Well, you

0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>know what's really great is I mean, you guys have

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:51.040
<v Speaker 1>some old iconic brands. We've talked about it with you before,

0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:54.240
<v Speaker 1>whether it's Barbie, whether it's Hot Wheels. I mean, it's

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.040
<v Speaker 1>just one brand after another. But then you have folded

0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.359
<v Speaker 1>into the mix and embrace of all that is new

0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 1>through a lot aiances and partnerships. What is it that

0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:04.639
<v Speaker 1>really drives growth for you? Guys, what is it that

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:07.840
<v Speaker 1>you say? Okay, this is top of mind, you know.

0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:12.520
<v Speaker 1>In terms of the performance for the company overall, well,

0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.040
<v Speaker 1>we've been growing on the toy side of the company

0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.760
<v Speaker 1>very strongly. We expect further growth this year. We expect

0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 1>growth in the second quarter and growth for the full year.

0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:25.200
<v Speaker 1>We expect our power brands to continue to grow this year,

0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:29.040
<v Speaker 1>Barbie Hot Walls and Fisher Price, as well as American Girl,

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:33.240
<v Speaker 1>and we expect to see strong growth in the challenging categories.

0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:35.679
<v Speaker 1>This is where we're not a global leader, but we're

0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:40.320
<v Speaker 1>seeing tremendous momentum and growth in categories like action figures

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 1>and building sets. So we are in a great position

0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:46.399
<v Speaker 1>to grow in the toy side of the company. And

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.520
<v Speaker 1>in addition to that, we're also seeing great momentum on

0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>the I P strategy. This is film, television content in general,

0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:59.719
<v Speaker 1>consumer products, digital experiences. And this week alone, we had

0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:03.159
<v Speaker 1>two very exciting news to share. One is that we

0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 1>partnered with j. J Abrahms to produce the Hot Wheels

0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 1>movie that we are developing with Warner Brothers. JJ is

0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:14.320
<v Speaker 1>one of the most prolific respected producers of this generation

0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:18.240
<v Speaker 1>filmmakers in general is also a director, and we're very

0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 1>excited to have him partnered with us on Hot Wheels.

0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:25.240
<v Speaker 1>And in addition, we also announced or Warner Brothers announced

0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:29.440
<v Speaker 1>at CinemaCon the release date of The Barbie Movie, which

0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:36.240
<v Speaker 1>will be July one, three, And this film is shaping

0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:41.159
<v Speaker 1>up really well to be an iconic cultural event. We

0:20:41.200 --> 0:20:44.680
<v Speaker 1>could not be more excited with the creative, execution and

0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:48.479
<v Speaker 1>vision of Greta Gelwig, who is also one of the

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:53.240
<v Speaker 1>most respected and prolific creative filmmakers of this generation. And

0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:59.560
<v Speaker 1>an all star cast with Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, Will Farrell, Simulo,

0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:04.919
<v Speaker 1>America Fera and many other you know, very strong talent

0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:09.800
<v Speaker 1>and exciting cast. So expect something very special, uh from

0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 1>the Barbie Movie as well as Hot Wheels, and as

0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:16.040
<v Speaker 1>well as other twelve films that we have in development.

0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:17.399
<v Speaker 1>You know, I want to go back to something that

0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:21.680
<v Speaker 1>you said about challenger categories areas where you're not actually

0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:25.520
<v Speaker 1>the top of the category. Um, do you think you

0:21:25.560 --> 0:21:28.400
<v Speaker 1>can become the leader of the pack in those categories

0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:32.280
<v Speaker 1>in action figures, for example? What will it take? We

0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.160
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing tremendous growth and momentum in the first quarter.

0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:39.359
<v Speaker 1>We grew by fort in the core and this is

0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:42.320
<v Speaker 1>on top of six six percent in the same quarter

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.879
<v Speaker 1>last year, so we're lapping a very strong year with

0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:50.439
<v Speaker 1>forty percent in in the first quarter. Within that action

0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:56.360
<v Speaker 1>figures actually grew by seventy so uh, huge momentum driven

0:21:56.400 --> 0:21:59.640
<v Speaker 1>by our own properties such as Muscles of the Universe,

0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:03.959
<v Speaker 1>as well as third party franchises that we manage on

0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:08.040
<v Speaker 1>the toy sides such as Jurassic World, Minions and light

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:11.679
<v Speaker 1>Year three, big theatrical releases that are coming up in

0:22:11.720 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 1>the second quarter and will further amplify growth in this

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:20.760
<v Speaker 1>category in addition to what we do already. So this

0:22:21.000 --> 0:22:24.200
<v Speaker 1>is an area where we see an opportunity to position

0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:28.600
<v Speaker 1>Mattel as a partner of choice for the major entertainment

0:22:28.640 --> 0:22:34.399
<v Speaker 1>companies and owners of big important franchises to leverage our platform,

0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:39.359
<v Speaker 1>our capabilities on the design side, supply and supply chain

0:22:39.760 --> 0:22:44.120
<v Speaker 1>and commercial execution and really grow these franchises and manage

0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:47.520
<v Speaker 1>them as evergreen properties that are not just dependent on

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:49.960
<v Speaker 1>the movie launch. But this is where we can bring

0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:55.440
<v Speaker 1>out capabilities and manage franchises as evergreen I p and

0:22:55.480 --> 0:22:58.280
<v Speaker 1>continue to create value for our partners well. And you know,

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:00.439
<v Speaker 1>I think about what you said about I pace rategy

0:23:00.480 --> 0:23:02.720
<v Speaker 1>film TV. You guys are already do with the Barbie movie.

0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:05.160
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna do it, as you said, with Hot Wheels,

0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:09.320
<v Speaker 1>and I do think about, UM, what's the best way

0:23:09.359 --> 0:23:12.600
<v Speaker 1>for you to leverage all of that? Is it by

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:15.800
<v Speaker 1>doing it as a standalone and just partnering and you know,

0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:19.880
<v Speaker 1>creating alliances with media and entertainment companies, or is there

0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:22.480
<v Speaker 1>some kind of you know, going back to our first question,

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:25.480
<v Speaker 1>some kind of more significant link up with a specific

0:23:25.560 --> 0:23:28.440
<v Speaker 1>media house Disney for the matter, Uh, you know, that

0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:32.200
<v Speaker 1>would make sense and and really create some incredible leverage.

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:37.760
<v Speaker 1>Our approach has been capitalized in that we don't take

0:23:37.840 --> 0:23:42.320
<v Speaker 1>capital risk in investing in movies um, and that capitale

0:23:42.320 --> 0:23:46.760
<v Speaker 1>approach applies also to our manufacturing strategy. What we do

0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:50.040
<v Speaker 1>do on the content side is with partner with the

0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:54.240
<v Speaker 1>best the best in their respective fields. So we're partnered

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:57.600
<v Speaker 1>with the best distributor as a major studio and the

0:23:57.640 --> 0:24:03.000
<v Speaker 1>best creative talent per genre, per project. And that gives

0:24:03.080 --> 0:24:07.520
<v Speaker 1>us the ability to do that at scale and develop

0:24:07.720 --> 0:24:11.440
<v Speaker 1>multiple projects at the same time and not be limited

0:24:11.680 --> 0:24:15.800
<v Speaker 1>to uh, one or two movie movies coming out every

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:17.879
<v Speaker 1>one or two or three years, so we can do

0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:21.000
<v Speaker 1>it at scale, work with the best people the genre,

0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:26.480
<v Speaker 1>per opportunity across across the industry, and have multiple shots

0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:31.439
<v Speaker 1>on goal with incredible brands and incredible incredible franchises and

0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:34.760
<v Speaker 1>still find the right economic balance in terms of risk

0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:40.080
<v Speaker 1>and reward for matail. Where our currency, our contribution is

0:24:40.119 --> 0:24:43.880
<v Speaker 1>the I P the franchises that we know, our expertise

0:24:43.920 --> 0:24:47.400
<v Speaker 1>and know how of those of those franchises, and making

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>sure that we collaborate and and and bring our understanding

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:54.159
<v Speaker 1>and the nuance knowledge of these franchises to the table

0:24:54.760 --> 0:24:58.080
<v Speaker 1>and create something very excited for exciting for consumers all

0:24:58.119 --> 0:25:00.480
<v Speaker 1>over the world. All right, you know, and I'm a

0:25:00.520 --> 0:25:03.679
<v Speaker 1>little persistent, as you might know, having we talked a

0:25:03.680 --> 0:25:07.919
<v Speaker 1>few times. So go, So you are firing at all cylinders.

0:25:08.000 --> 0:25:10.240
<v Speaker 1>Mattel is firing at all cylinders. And you guys have

0:25:10.320 --> 0:25:14.199
<v Speaker 1>had what three consecutive years of dynamic certainly equity growth.

0:25:14.520 --> 0:25:19.040
<v Speaker 1>Uh And like I said, investors are noticing. So some

0:25:19.119 --> 0:25:22.200
<v Speaker 1>would say that is a reason the top perhaps or

0:25:22.400 --> 0:25:25.960
<v Speaker 1>at a prime moment to sell the company. Others would

0:25:25.960 --> 0:25:28.720
<v Speaker 1>say it's you know, you are talking about more avenues

0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 1>for growth. What would it take to do a deal

0:25:31.119 --> 0:25:33.760
<v Speaker 1>that makes sense. Obviously shareholders of the board have to agree.

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:36.600
<v Speaker 1>But you know, is it just about price or is

0:25:36.640 --> 0:25:42.040
<v Speaker 1>it about strategy. Well, we're here to create shareholder value.

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:46.880
<v Speaker 1>We've been very consistent about executing our strategy and always

0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:51.639
<v Speaker 1>have our shareholders interests as a north star. We have

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:54.320
<v Speaker 1>been doing it consistently. We see a lot of runway

0:25:54.359 --> 0:25:57.119
<v Speaker 1>for the company to continue to grow and to create

0:25:57.160 --> 0:26:01.400
<v Speaker 1>more shareholder value. That's our job, that's our focus, that's

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:03.800
<v Speaker 1>what we've been doing, and this is what we are

0:26:03.840 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>looking to do going forward. You know, give us a

0:26:08.160 --> 0:26:10.720
<v Speaker 1>time frame for the strategy here. I mean, when you

0:26:10.760 --> 0:26:13.520
<v Speaker 1>think going forward, what does that mean to you? How

0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:18.960
<v Speaker 1>many years? How many quarters? What the The original strategy

0:26:19.000 --> 0:26:22.320
<v Speaker 1>that we set out was to was to grow the

0:26:22.359 --> 0:26:26.119
<v Speaker 1>toy business and in the mid to long term execute

0:26:26.119 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 1>on our IP strategy. Now further down the road, we're

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:34.000
<v Speaker 1>now looking to continue to grow our IP toy business

0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:38.280
<v Speaker 1>I P driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering.

0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:41.320
<v Speaker 1>We have put the building blocks in place for the

0:26:41.359 --> 0:26:44.200
<v Speaker 1>second side, the second part of the strategy, and you're

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:48.320
<v Speaker 1>now starting to see the fruit of that work. With

0:26:48.480 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 1>a release state for the Barbie Movie as a first

0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:55.000
<v Speaker 1>and more to follow. More to come we will release

0:26:55.840 --> 0:26:59.120
<v Speaker 1>on the television side, on the prosodic side, we will

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:05.040
<v Speaker 1>have third in series and specials on air, nine of

0:27:05.119 --> 0:27:08.119
<v Speaker 1>which are new and for our returning This is a

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:12.000
<v Speaker 1>full slate. This is a real offering that will continue

0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:14.880
<v Speaker 1>to grow and evolve. So, you know, help us, help

0:27:14.920 --> 0:27:20.040
<v Speaker 1>our investor audience understand how much Barbie sales will increase

0:27:20.480 --> 0:27:23.480
<v Speaker 1>when the movie comes out, how much Hot Hot Wheels

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.679
<v Speaker 1>sales will increase when the movie comes out. Now we

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:32.120
<v Speaker 1>haven't we haven't outlined that specifically by brand, and it's

0:27:32.119 --> 0:27:35.719
<v Speaker 1>not something that we typically break down by that at

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:41.320
<v Speaker 1>that level, but we all understand that content strategy, an

0:27:41.320 --> 0:27:46.879
<v Speaker 1>IP strategy, increasing the touchpoints and the engagement of consumers

0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:50.440
<v Speaker 1>with our brands at multiple levels is a good thing.

0:27:51.240 --> 0:27:54.920
<v Speaker 1>Our approach on the content side, on all of our

0:27:55.280 --> 0:27:58.760
<v Speaker 1>experiences outside of the toy aisle, was to to create

0:27:59.119 --> 0:28:05.120
<v Speaker 1>quality experiences, quality content that will engage consumers. So when

0:28:05.160 --> 0:28:08.960
<v Speaker 1>we develop a movie, the approach is not how are

0:28:08.960 --> 0:28:10.760
<v Speaker 1>we going to sell more toys on the back of

0:28:10.800 --> 0:28:14.240
<v Speaker 1>this movie. Their approaches how are we going to make

0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:17.879
<v Speaker 1>the best movie that people want to watch? We know

0:28:17.920 --> 0:28:20.800
<v Speaker 1>you can do it. Well, good things will happen. We

0:28:20.840 --> 0:28:23.159
<v Speaker 1>know you have to run thirty seconds left here the

0:28:23.160 --> 0:28:25.040
<v Speaker 1>Barbie movie. Have you been on set seen some of

0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:31.080
<v Speaker 1>the filming. I have been on set, and I can

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:35.800
<v Speaker 1>only say it's extremely exciting. The quality, the visuals, the

0:28:35.880 --> 0:28:41.920
<v Speaker 1>execution is stunning, and I come back super excited and

0:28:41.960 --> 0:28:44.240
<v Speaker 1>I know it's going to be very special. All right, Well,

0:28:44.240 --> 0:28:46.640
<v Speaker 1>we're looking forward to it and always appreciate when you

0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:49.080
<v Speaker 1>find time for us. Eenon cries he's chairman, chief executive

0:28:49.120 --> 0:28:51.280
<v Speaker 1>officer of Mattel. That Barbie Movie in theater is July

0:28:51.920 --> 0:28:55.680
<v Speaker 1>twenty three, and I really appreciate it getting some time

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:57.960
<v Speaker 1>with us. So much going on that stock though on

0:28:58.080 --> 0:29:01.360
<v Speaker 1>that company has really been on a tear. This is

0:29:01.400 --> 0:29:05.360
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes.

0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:09.680
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. You guys know right you've

0:29:09.720 --> 0:29:11.960
<v Speaker 1>been listening to us watching on YouTube. We have been

0:29:12.000 --> 0:29:15.280
<v Speaker 1>all over so many big tech earnings. Netflix of course,

0:29:15.320 --> 0:29:17.960
<v Speaker 1>We've heard from Meta, we heard from Pinterest, we heard

0:29:18.000 --> 0:29:20.480
<v Speaker 1>from Google, we heard from Alphabet of course, whom am

0:29:20.680 --> 0:29:22.680
<v Speaker 1>leaving out. I don't know, there's like this is the

0:29:22.680 --> 0:29:26.280
<v Speaker 1>biggest week. This is our quarterly you know, super Bowl, Yeah, exactly,

0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:28.560
<v Speaker 1>the tech super Bowl. Hey, James chalkmak, I bet I

0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:30.240
<v Speaker 1>don't even know if he's been getting sleep. Partner and

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:33.360
<v Speaker 1>technology analyst at the asset management from Clockwise Capital. He

0:29:33.520 --> 0:29:38.000
<v Speaker 1>is back with us. They just like hang out. You know,

0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:40.960
<v Speaker 1>it's not like Wall Street. Okay, you live in Margaritaville.

0:29:40.960 --> 0:29:44.840
<v Speaker 1>Is that what's going on? Good afternoon, guys? How are

0:29:44.840 --> 0:29:48.560
<v Speaker 1>you sorry? That's very serious, So talk to us about

0:29:48.600 --> 0:29:51.960
<v Speaker 1>what we've gotten so far? Um, Netflix, can we go

0:29:52.040 --> 0:29:55.280
<v Speaker 1>back to Netflix? I'm curious your takeaway on all of

0:29:55.280 --> 0:29:59.680
<v Speaker 1>that and what it means going forward. Sure. I think

0:29:59.760 --> 0:30:03.040
<v Speaker 1>two kind of big takeaways from Netflix. Is that one,

0:30:03.680 --> 0:30:09.760
<v Speaker 1>you have this uh subscription uh saturation uh in the market. Clearly,

0:30:10.200 --> 0:30:13.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, we've been a rising tideslifts all boat situations

0:30:13.320 --> 0:30:16.720
<v Speaker 1>for quite some time as it relates to services and

0:30:16.920 --> 0:30:22.920
<v Speaker 1>cord cutting and um and UH and video offerings from

0:30:22.920 --> 0:30:26.920
<v Speaker 1>from different players. But as competition has increased and uh

0:30:27.680 --> 0:30:33.479
<v Speaker 1>um and attention time uh spence has remained finite. UM,

0:30:33.560 --> 0:30:36.560
<v Speaker 1>you know you're you are reaching a point of saturation. UM.

0:30:36.680 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 1>So some investors are essentially trying to decipher you know

0:30:39.960 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 1>who's gonna end up, you know, maintaining the most sustainable

0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:49.720
<v Speaker 1>growth UM. In this next chapter, Netflix obviously has a

0:30:49.720 --> 0:30:52.360
<v Speaker 1>big question mark on it, but I'd say if you

0:30:52.440 --> 0:30:56.080
<v Speaker 1>zoom out just a little bit, the overarching team for

0:30:56.400 --> 0:31:01.200
<v Speaker 1>Netflix and tech more broadly is this concept the mean reversion.

0:31:01.800 --> 0:31:04.680
<v Speaker 1>And what we mean by that is that, you know,

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.760
<v Speaker 1>you had these growth curves across technology that have been

0:31:08.840 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 1>largely predictable prior to COVID, and what happened was COVID

0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:16.320
<v Speaker 1>pulled forward a tremendous amount of demand for these companies,

0:31:16.320 --> 0:31:21.160
<v Speaker 1>so you saw growth accelerate well beyond what investors have

0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:25.480
<v Speaker 1>expected um for the companies over the next five to

0:31:25.560 --> 0:31:29.960
<v Speaker 1>ten year cycles. And then what happened today um over

0:31:30.040 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 1>the last quarter and dis quarter and likely into next

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:37.840
<v Speaker 1>is that the growth rates have been decelerating tremendously, because

0:31:37.840 --> 0:31:43.480
<v Speaker 1>you're laughing these huge growth numbers from last year. So really,

0:31:43.800 --> 0:31:46.760
<v Speaker 1>when we think about, you know, the risk consucciated with

0:31:46.800 --> 0:31:49.239
<v Speaker 1>the market and the draw downs that we've seen now,

0:31:49.440 --> 0:31:52.440
<v Speaker 1>we think it's less amount you know, the Fed inflation

0:31:52.720 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 1>rate hikes and so forth, and more about investors having

0:31:56.160 --> 0:31:59.960
<v Speaker 1>a tremendous amount of difficulty ascertaining exactly where these growth

0:32:00.200 --> 0:32:03.640
<v Speaker 1>rates will land for these companies on a normalized basis.

0:32:03.960 --> 0:32:06.360
<v Speaker 1>You know, our masters are thinking, are these new lower

0:32:06.400 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 1>growth rates the new normal or will they revert back

0:32:10.000 --> 0:32:11.479
<v Speaker 1>to the way things were? I mean some of these

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:13.720
<v Speaker 1>you can make the case go ahead, Yeah, James. Some

0:32:13.720 --> 0:32:15.840
<v Speaker 1>of these companies have just been are just beat up.

0:32:15.840 --> 0:32:19.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean Netflix down from its highs back in November.

0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:23.360
<v Speaker 1>You have companies like until today Meta she had of

0:32:23.400 --> 0:32:27.360
<v Speaker 1>its value just this year, Roku down since July of

0:32:27.480 --> 0:32:31.400
<v Speaker 1>last year, PayPal just getting absolutely crushed. Are are these

0:32:31.400 --> 0:32:35.000
<v Speaker 1>stocks oversold or are they buying opportunities here? Yeah? I

0:32:35.040 --> 0:32:38.000
<v Speaker 1>mean I think through that mean reversion springwork, you can

0:32:38.680 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of come up with high degrees of confidence on

0:32:42.160 --> 0:32:43.880
<v Speaker 1>which ones are going to be the winners and losers.

0:32:44.080 --> 0:32:46.880
<v Speaker 1>And look at company like Microsoft, right, this is a

0:32:46.920 --> 0:32:51.440
<v Speaker 1>company where the world completely moved in Microsoft's favor because

0:32:51.480 --> 0:32:54.200
<v Speaker 1>of COVID, which means that the growth rate is actually

0:32:54.480 --> 0:32:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the sustainable growth rate is higher than we had expected

0:32:57.760 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>prior to COVID. So that's one that's been of fitting.

0:33:00.440 --> 0:33:05.200
<v Speaker 1>The world moved somewhat against the Google favor um as

0:33:05.240 --> 0:33:10.320
<v Speaker 1>competition increased and attention expans moved into other areas UM

0:33:10.360 --> 0:33:14.440
<v Speaker 1>and that one is likely lower than expect. That Facebook

0:33:14.480 --> 0:33:17.960
<v Speaker 1>even more so lower than what we previously expected, which

0:33:18.000 --> 0:33:21.760
<v Speaker 1>is why the stock is down tremendously. Uh and Netflix

0:33:21.800 --> 0:33:24.239
<v Speaker 1>is also tremendously lower, which is why the stock is

0:33:24.720 --> 0:33:27.400
<v Speaker 1>is also down. But I think you can decipher Amazon

0:33:27.560 --> 0:33:30.960
<v Speaker 1>is a huge, huge comeback. I mean it's it's it's

0:33:31.000 --> 0:33:33.880
<v Speaker 1>our number one position and it's probably the number one

0:33:34.360 --> 0:33:38.680
<v Speaker 1>most undervalued company in the market right now, the company

0:33:38.680 --> 0:33:43.080
<v Speaker 1>that provides the most value for your subscription UM than

0:33:43.120 --> 0:33:46.160
<v Speaker 1>any other service in the in the market combined. James

0:33:46.200 --> 0:33:48.600
<v Speaker 1>chock Mark is with US partner technology analyst at the

0:33:48.600 --> 0:33:52.800
<v Speaker 1>asset management from Clockwise Capital UM. You said just before

0:33:52.800 --> 0:33:55.200
<v Speaker 1>we went to the break, Amazon's your number one position,

0:33:55.440 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 1>number one most undervalued company. Explore that a little bit

0:33:58.560 --> 0:34:02.160
<v Speaker 1>further with us. I mean, sure, think about what you

0:34:02.200 --> 0:34:04.520
<v Speaker 1>get with your prime subscription for a hundred forty dollars

0:34:04.560 --> 0:34:07.240
<v Speaker 1>a year, you get you get six businesses in one.

0:34:07.280 --> 0:34:09.399
<v Speaker 1>When you buy a stock share of Amazon, you get

0:34:09.480 --> 0:34:14.279
<v Speaker 1>retail logistics, video music, grocery, and the cloud, and you're

0:34:14.280 --> 0:34:16.919
<v Speaker 1>getting it at three time sales. And when we're talking

0:34:16.960 --> 0:34:18.879
<v Speaker 1>about the mean reversal. This is a company that grew

0:34:19.000 --> 0:34:21.759
<v Speaker 1>nine percent last year I mean last quarter, but used

0:34:21.800 --> 0:34:26.520
<v Speaker 1>to grow about revenue every quarter like clockwork. I think

0:34:26.600 --> 0:34:30.120
<v Speaker 1>by the time they report third quarter guidance in three

0:34:30.160 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 1>months time, you're gonna see the growth rate double back

0:34:33.719 --> 0:34:38.360
<v Speaker 1>up and um and this shares either this quarter or

0:34:39.000 --> 0:34:41.799
<v Speaker 1>uh you know, beginning next are just gonna rock it off.

0:34:42.280 --> 0:34:45.360
<v Speaker 1>Where we are straining at three time sales compared to

0:34:46.040 --> 0:34:50.480
<v Speaker 1>Chipotle at six times sales, You're you're getting Amazon or

0:34:50.600 --> 0:34:54.719
<v Speaker 1>half the multiple as a burrito where you can see that.

0:34:54.960 --> 0:34:57.160
<v Speaker 1>Where are you going to see that growth? Are you

0:34:57.280 --> 0:34:58.880
<v Speaker 1>in in Amazon? Are you going to see it in

0:34:58.920 --> 0:35:00.960
<v Speaker 1>a WS you can see? I think a retail thing

0:35:01.120 --> 0:35:03.120
<v Speaker 1>is going to be a huge, huge Advertising is going

0:35:03.200 --> 0:35:05.839
<v Speaker 1>to be a huge driver. Um, you know, I think

0:35:05.880 --> 0:35:08.080
<v Speaker 1>that's part of the reason you're seeing the pains that

0:35:08.320 --> 0:35:12.719
<v Speaker 1>Facebook and to some extent YouTube you know intelligence team

0:35:12.760 --> 0:35:15.040
<v Speaker 1>wrote the same thing, Um, James, they're kind of on

0:35:15.080 --> 0:35:17.719
<v Speaker 1>the same thinking of you that there's a lot more marketplaces,

0:35:17.760 --> 0:35:20.239
<v Speaker 1>including Amazon that's eating away at some of the advertising

0:35:20.239 --> 0:35:23.399
<v Speaker 1>budget that has been enjoyed by you know, a few

0:35:23.520 --> 0:35:28.640
<v Speaker 1>for a long time, but no more completely agree. I

0:35:28.680 --> 0:35:31.040
<v Speaker 1>mean I think it's gonna be and and it's so

0:35:31.160 --> 0:35:35.799
<v Speaker 1>Nathan uh relative to its other businesses. I mean, it's

0:35:35.800 --> 0:35:38.439
<v Speaker 1>going to be growing in thirty or four percent range

0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:43.520
<v Speaker 1>likely for the foreseeable future. Obviously you have the membership

0:35:43.840 --> 0:35:46.960
<v Speaker 1>UH component to it, and the cloud as as reinforced

0:35:47.000 --> 0:35:50.640
<v Speaker 1>by Microsoft and Google's results will be growing at very

0:35:50.760 --> 0:35:53.799
<v Speaker 1>very healthy rates as well, and retail growth rates will

0:35:53.880 --> 0:35:57.000
<v Speaker 1>normalize back through pre COVID level. So this one, to

0:35:57.040 --> 0:36:00.840
<v Speaker 1>me is the biggest no brainer UH of the bunch

0:36:01.760 --> 0:36:03.880
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to big tech. What should we be

0:36:03.920 --> 0:36:06.359
<v Speaker 1>looking for with the Amazon earnings in just a few

0:36:06.360 --> 0:36:11.040
<v Speaker 1>minutes when they cross UM. The main thing I think, UH,

0:36:11.239 --> 0:36:14.719
<v Speaker 1>is that you're going to see better discretion on the

0:36:16.000 --> 0:36:19.560
<v Speaker 1>on the expense side, UM. So I think that's going

0:36:19.600 --> 0:36:22.920
<v Speaker 1>to be an area of surprise and then and obviously

0:36:23.280 --> 0:36:26.280
<v Speaker 1>UM a steeper profitability and growth curve as a result

0:36:26.360 --> 0:36:28.880
<v Speaker 1>of that. And but most importantly the fact that the

0:36:28.920 --> 0:36:32.920
<v Speaker 1>growth rate is moving back up for that number that

0:36:33.040 --> 0:36:35.000
<v Speaker 1>we used to have prior to COVID and once that

0:36:35.120 --> 0:36:39.400
<v Speaker 1>happens with within UM because they will fully be laughing

0:36:39.440 --> 0:36:42.279
<v Speaker 1>things in the second quarter. So I think we're just

0:36:42.560 --> 0:36:46.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, days UM away from seeing um those kind

0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:49.719
<v Speaker 1>of numbers from them. If they don't see that kind

0:36:49.760 --> 0:36:52.799
<v Speaker 1>of positivity, is that a bit of a disappointment to

0:36:52.840 --> 0:36:57.239
<v Speaker 1>you then? Um? I mean in our minds it has

0:36:57.280 --> 0:37:01.800
<v Speaker 1>always been when they report two q UM and provide

0:37:01.840 --> 0:37:06.200
<v Speaker 1>that third quarter guidance in in in three months time. UM.

0:37:06.400 --> 0:37:10.000
<v Speaker 1>So I can't say with great certainty that it's this quarter,

0:37:10.080 --> 0:37:13.480
<v Speaker 1>but I certainly think that the trends will be in

0:37:13.520 --> 0:37:16.399
<v Speaker 1>that in that direction this quarter, and at the very

0:37:16.480 --> 0:37:19.600
<v Speaker 1>least they'll discuss it that it's in that trend. On

0:37:19.640 --> 0:37:22.560
<v Speaker 1>the urine, it's called how important is advertising to Amazon?

0:37:22.600 --> 0:37:24.600
<v Speaker 1>It's and I'd say this, you know in quotes. It's

0:37:24.600 --> 0:37:29.640
<v Speaker 1>a relatively new business to the company. I think it's important.

0:37:29.880 --> 0:37:34.120
<v Speaker 1>I think it just shows that it's a proofpoint that

0:37:34.160 --> 0:37:37.799
<v Speaker 1>people go to Amazon first. Um. I mean, it's a right.

0:37:37.840 --> 0:37:40.320
<v Speaker 1>They're not necessarily googling the product. They're going to Amazon,

0:37:40.320 --> 0:37:42.719
<v Speaker 1>and they're using the search there to do it. Yeah,

0:37:42.800 --> 0:37:45.600
<v Speaker 1>and and and and the proof is in the pudding.

0:37:45.640 --> 0:37:47.320
<v Speaker 1>So if the dollars are moving in that direction, it

0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:51.600
<v Speaker 1>clearly means that behavior consumer behaviors in that direction and

0:37:52.120 --> 0:37:54.239
<v Speaker 1>it's not going anywhere. But the one thing I just

0:37:54.280 --> 0:37:57.279
<v Speaker 1>wanted to add before we go, is that you know,

0:37:57.320 --> 0:38:00.800
<v Speaker 1>the number one in that mistake investors make as they

0:38:00.840 --> 0:38:06.440
<v Speaker 1>tend to underestimate the sustainable sustainability of the growth for

0:38:06.480 --> 0:38:09.360
<v Speaker 1>these cloud first companies, and it's been done throughout times.

0:38:09.760 --> 0:38:12.600
<v Speaker 1>The number one example, I always think of this Walmart.

0:38:13.040 --> 0:38:19.239
<v Speaker 1>You know, Walmart from grew thirty six percent year on

0:38:19.360 --> 0:38:22.279
<v Speaker 1>average for thirty years. I mean, how many people would

0:38:22.320 --> 0:38:25.120
<v Speaker 1>have sunk in nineteen sixty nine that the Walmart is

0:38:25.200 --> 0:38:29.279
<v Speaker 1>a company that can average over growth a year for

0:38:29.360 --> 0:38:32.400
<v Speaker 1>thirty years, I mean virtually impossible, but it saved people

0:38:32.440 --> 0:38:34.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of times because they had the supersource. I

0:38:34.520 --> 0:38:38.200
<v Speaker 1>think the cloud first companies of today snowflakes of the world,

0:38:38.200 --> 0:38:44.239
<v Speaker 1>the crowd Strikes, Twilios, airbnd S, Octa, Amazon, and these

0:38:44.280 --> 0:38:48.320
<v Speaker 1>are companies that can have much much more sustainable growth

0:38:48.400 --> 0:38:51.360
<v Speaker 1>rates than people expect. So I think we are in

0:38:51.400 --> 0:38:55.400
<v Speaker 1>one of the biggest buying opportunities of at least my

0:38:55.520 --> 0:39:00.759
<v Speaker 1>investing career is um uh right at this juncture, and

0:39:00.760 --> 0:39:03.560
<v Speaker 1>I would say much more so even during the depths

0:39:03.600 --> 0:39:06.520
<v Speaker 1>of COVID. So right now it's tough out there, but

0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:09.319
<v Speaker 1>if you can pick the right horses there's a ton

0:39:09.520 --> 0:39:12.040
<v Speaker 1>ton of money to be made, and I the analogy

0:39:12.200 --> 0:39:16.400
<v Speaker 1>is you're buying Walmart in n so. So all right,

0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:18.800
<v Speaker 1>so someone's got new money that they want to commit.

0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:20.880
<v Speaker 1>They're a little freaked out by some of the volatility.

0:39:21.000 --> 0:39:23.440
<v Speaker 1>So what are five names that you would say this

0:39:23.480 --> 0:39:25.000
<v Speaker 1>is where you should commit new money. You might need

0:39:25.040 --> 0:39:26.400
<v Speaker 1>to be patient, it might be a little bit of

0:39:26.400 --> 0:39:28.400
<v Speaker 1>a crazy ride, but this is where you should go

0:39:28.400 --> 0:39:31.400
<v Speaker 1>because it is the Walmart. Like you just said of

0:39:31.760 --> 0:39:37.520
<v Speaker 1>past Um, I'm in Amazon number one. I'm in Uh.

0:39:37.640 --> 0:39:41.560
<v Speaker 1>I definitely do Snowflake. I would definitely want to play

0:39:41.640 --> 0:39:45.040
<v Speaker 1>a security type names Cimber security is going to be critical.

0:39:45.640 --> 0:39:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Uh that would be a company like like crowd Strike.

0:39:50.160 --> 0:39:55.120
<v Speaker 1>UM I like um let's see uh I still I

0:39:55.160 --> 0:40:00.960
<v Speaker 1>still do like UM. I like Tesla here after the

0:40:01.000 --> 0:40:04.839
<v Speaker 1>pullback here, I think this is one that I mean,

0:40:04.960 --> 0:40:08.200
<v Speaker 1>Tesla is changing the world. I mean, and and the

0:40:08.200 --> 0:40:11.319
<v Speaker 1>the advantage that they have in production, I mean, they

0:40:11.360 --> 0:40:13.840
<v Speaker 1>are mild ahead and it's gonna take years and years

0:40:13.840 --> 0:40:18.680
<v Speaker 1>for others to catch up on on the cost effectiveness

0:40:18.800 --> 0:40:22.239
<v Speaker 1>inefficiency that they can gain over time at Testloo. That's

0:40:22.280 --> 0:40:24.879
<v Speaker 1>one definitely, And then in Nividea the video because they're

0:40:24.960 --> 0:40:27.520
<v Speaker 1>involved in everything that's involved in the future. All right,

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:30.720
<v Speaker 1>really quickly twenty second So Tesla, even with a bye

0:40:30.719 --> 0:40:34.920
<v Speaker 1>of Twitter, you think it's okay. Yes, I think it's okay.

0:40:35.080 --> 0:40:37.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's it's noise. It's noise right now. It's

0:40:37.960 --> 0:40:42.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of noise, you know. And the thing is, honestly,

0:40:42.880 --> 0:40:45.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean they say that Mosk doesn't care about monetization,

0:40:45.960 --> 0:40:47.919
<v Speaker 1>but if you do the things that he says he's

0:40:47.920 --> 0:40:51.000
<v Speaker 1>gonna do at Twitter, Um, I really think that the

0:40:51.040 --> 0:40:54.440
<v Speaker 1>monetization predential it's far bigger for Twitter than it's ever been.

0:40:54.520 --> 0:40:59.759
<v Speaker 1>So I think, yes, what a treat for us to

0:40:59.880 --> 0:41:01.400
<v Speaker 1>be able to do a double dive with you. So

0:41:01.560 --> 0:41:03.719
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. James chock Mak, He's partner and

0:41:03.760 --> 0:41:07.120
<v Speaker 1>technology analysts at the asset management from Clockwise Capital, joining

0:41:07.160 --> 0:41:10.960
<v Speaker 1>us once again on the phone in Miami. Thanks for

0:41:11.000 --> 0:41:14.799
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:41:14.880 --> 0:41:17.080
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:41:17.080 --> 0:41:19.640
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0:41:19.760 --> 0:41:22.560
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