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Speaker 1: Yea. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. The

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Speaker 1: US and Canadian negotiators have worked around the clock to

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Speaker 1: clinch a deal together with Mexico. The countries will be

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Speaker 1: transforming NAFTA into the US Mexico Canada Agreement or U

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Speaker 1: S m C. A big question is it just a

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Speaker 1: rebrand or does it involve fundamental change to a region

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Speaker 1: that trades more than one trillion dollars annually. Bill Lee

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Speaker 1: joins US now formerly of the I M F City

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Speaker 1: and the Federal Reserve and now the Milk and Chief Economists. Bill,

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Speaker 1: good morning to you. Which one? Is it a rebrand

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Speaker 1: or some funded into a change to this trading block. John,

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Speaker 1: It's a rebranding of the old NAFTA with TPP elements

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Speaker 1: in it. But also the fundamental change are the players

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Speaker 1: coming to the table. I think the multilateralism dying means

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Speaker 1: that the number of players that negotiating table are going

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Speaker 1: to be smaller and smaller, because Trump really wants to

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Speaker 1: negotiate bilaterally, and right now he saw exactly how he

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Speaker 1: did it. He did it with Mexico, and then he

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Speaker 1: did it with Canada, and simply doing it with snap

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Speaker 1: career and apparently doing it with the Japanese is well

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Speaker 1: a promised to Shinzua by build a big question I

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Speaker 1: think for many investors in market participants this morning, is

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Speaker 1: we can move on from the NAFTA issue features a positive,

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Speaker 1: it's risk gone. What happens with China? That's the big

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Speaker 1: question because the pattern that we've set with Canada and

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Speaker 1: Mexico really doesn't apply to China. Mexico and Canada a

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Speaker 1: small country's relative the US, but China is going to

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Speaker 1: be a big country trade and that the essence of

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Speaker 1: big country trade is how do we open up their

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Speaker 1: domestic markets for our products? And when China says we

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Speaker 1: have process you can't live without, that is the China

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Speaker 1: made agenda. All the tense strategic sectors that they want

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Speaker 1: to be the dominant player in, they're going to say,

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Speaker 1: you can't live with our stuff. Now, how do I

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Speaker 1: trying to protect my intellectual property rights but gain access

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Speaker 1: and vice versa. That's the new negotiating tactic that is

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Speaker 1: yet to come out. Well, Bill, that's the breaking news

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Speaker 1: around the trade story. Here's the breaking news around G

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Speaker 1: E G E naming Lawrence could the chairman and CEO

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Speaker 1: the company, saying they will full short of EPs guidance

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Speaker 1: for eighteen. The price s action in the pre market.

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Speaker 1: The stock moves lower down by four percent. That has

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Speaker 1: just cross the Bloomberg right now. The headline as follows

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Speaker 1: GE naming Lawrence Colb chairman and CEO. Very on Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane over in the Washington d C studio as he

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Speaker 1: gets ready to catch hell with the I m F

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Speaker 1: Chief Madame Legarde a little bit later this morning, Tommy,

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Speaker 1: if you can weigh in as the G stock just

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Speaker 1: rolls over and we get more news from an embattled

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Speaker 1: company over the last couple of years, an embattled company,

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Speaker 1: and it really is going to be interesting to see

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Speaker 1: how they do given the detrius of GE finance, Mr Kulp,

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people aren't surprised by this.

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Speaker 1: In fact, the timing is about I would suggest about

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Speaker 1: right as Uh, well, John, uh, you know, lead director

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Speaker 1: fine and uh to see what he will do, Uh,

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Speaker 1: would be instant, but I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: uh have really been looking for him to come in

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Speaker 1: and do this. I this is not a surprise, but

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Speaker 1: the immediacy of it is, which shows how grim it is.

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Speaker 1: Well in the immediate term, we've got to look at

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Speaker 1: a company that says it well full short of its guidance,

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Speaker 1: Tom m full short of APS guidance, and to record

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Speaker 1: another impairment charge as well. And Tom, is this a

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Speaker 1: question of Flannery just not doing it quick enough? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I would suggest, and I'm speaking as an amateur, and

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Speaker 1: I want to speak to somebody more informed about this,

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Speaker 1: some of the securities analysts. But the timing is the issue.

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Speaker 1: I've said all along that you I I was sitting

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Speaker 1: on a mountain side in Davos, John a bunch of

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Speaker 1: years ago and it realized the new five years was

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Speaker 1: three years. Well, you know what, and Bill Lee can

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Speaker 1: speak to this, I'm wrong the new five years and

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Speaker 1: three years, it's eighteen months and you better get going. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And that's really what we see. To let me add,

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Speaker 1: the markets are really punishing for failing in financial markets.

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Speaker 1: Ge Capital was a disaster, and now that they have

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Speaker 1: not found a new place to be dominant in we

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Speaker 1: see that old industry, the GE powerhouse of power plants

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Speaker 1: and turbines isn't enough to power G back into the

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Speaker 1: upper evaluation levels that they used to have. And I

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Speaker 1: can tell you that rollout in the stock tom lasted

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Speaker 1: about twenty seconds UM. It rolled out for almost four

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Speaker 1: percent in the pre market. It's now rolled back out

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Speaker 1: positive two point positive cannabists. But change with a change

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Speaker 1: at the top, Yes, I I would definitely suggest that.

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Speaker 1: And again when everyone saw the name Lawrence call Uh

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Speaker 1: come into the picture at GE, with his you know,

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Speaker 1: with his prestigion, with his work at day and her

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Speaker 1: there was just there was just understood. I mean a

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Speaker 1: lot of people even this is pure speculation. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: get in trouble for this. What do you do? Do

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Speaker 1: you take the best practice as a dinner and merger

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Speaker 1: with the train wreck of GE and move on. I

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Speaker 1: don't know a lot others think of that. But when

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Speaker 1: Lawrence copp showed up involved with this new GE, that

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Speaker 1: changed the dialogue. Yeah. I can just say for our

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Speaker 1: listeners just tune again. We have had a series of

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Speaker 1: headlines across the Bloomberg General Electric saying it will fall

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Speaker 1: short of EPs guidance to record a charge and Lawrence

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Speaker 1: cult will become the new chairman and CEO. Initially, off

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Speaker 1: the back of these headlines, the stock rolled over in

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Speaker 1: the pre market. It's now rolled up. It's positive two Bully,

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Speaker 1: I just want to get your view quickly on the

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Speaker 1: macro backdrop that should be really positive over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years for a big industrial conglomerate like GE.

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Speaker 1: Why is GE different to you, Bill, Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: the whole assess of a conglomerates are supposed to be

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Speaker 1: supposed to the synergies, and I think GE synergies have

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Speaker 1: to be reshuffled to show that the design of GE

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Speaker 1: will take advantage of the new trade patterns that are

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Speaker 1: yet to emerge. We haven't seen that yet. Well, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about a new trade patterns. Bill. What do you

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Speaker 1: see in terms of new trade patterns emerging over the

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Speaker 1: next several years? As I see the sectors that the

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Speaker 1: US is doing well in the service sector, have yet

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Speaker 1: to define how it is that we're going to enter

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Speaker 1: the China and EU market at the same time, allowing

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Speaker 1: the Chinese pharmaceuticals, five G electronics and electric vehicles to

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Speaker 1: come into the US. That is where I think that

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Speaker 1: the new investment opportunities are going to be for our

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Speaker 1: our audience out there. But also I think the key

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Speaker 1: is to bring in sectoral negotiators because countries no longer

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Speaker 1: trade with countries. It's companies and sectors trading with other sectors.

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Speaker 1: And that's the key to the new century trade framework.

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Speaker 1: And Tom another headline crossing a Bloomberg that the g

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Speaker 1: E charge to be substantially all of g E powers

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Speaker 1: twenty three billion dollar good world. So these headlines just

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Speaker 1: create dropping and I've got to say it feels like

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Speaker 1: a kitchen sink situation going gone over a general electorate

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Speaker 1: this morning. Yeah, I'll go with that. But you bring

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Speaker 1: up an extremely important UH point, which is you bring

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Speaker 1: it over to the balance sheet. There are charges that

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Speaker 1: stay on the income statement, and yes, they affect cash

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Speaker 1: flow and all that. But what every company UH really

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Speaker 1: attempts to avoid our charges that eat into some form

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Speaker 1: of balance sheet. And of course, when you have a

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Speaker 1: tangible or relatively tangible business like ge power, that good

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Speaker 1: will numbers an actual but yeah, I hesitate to say this,

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Speaker 1: but accountable number. And you know, let me read the

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Speaker 1: headline again. It's so important charge to be substantially all

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Speaker 1: of ge powers twenty three billion dollars of goodwill. So John,

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Speaker 1: you can say with full disclosure that this is a

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Speaker 1: kitchen sink and is a massive write down as well. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: is it a kitchen think that much of the market

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Speaker 1: wants it. Just to keep you up to speed on

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Speaker 1: the price action as the headlines come through. G E

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Speaker 1: stock now up by a round a five pc in

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Speaker 1: the pre market, So it's been taking positive toy at

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Speaker 1: least five minutes after the headlines of dropped. So we're

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Speaker 1: just tuning again, g naming Lawrence Coult, the chairman and

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Speaker 1: CEO the company, saying that we're full short of EPs guidance.

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Speaker 1: They're recording a charge as well. The stock reacting negatively

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Speaker 1: initially and then rolling up around four higher. Bill, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us this morning. I'm sorry

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Speaker 1: it was short. Bill Lee the and securities analysts apparently

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Speaker 1: as well joining us from Washington, d C. Let's do

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Speaker 1: this churn. Let's bring in very lovely of the Peterson Institute.

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Speaker 1: As we talked trade, and we talked um these strange

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Speaker 1: phrases multilateral, bilateral, unilateral, and of course Trump lateral as

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Speaker 1: well using NAFTA or the New Agreement Professor lovely, the

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Speaker 1: United States, Mexico, Canada act. Who won, Well, it's hard

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Speaker 1: to say who won. We're just beginning to see the

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Speaker 1: details of the text. We all want to some extent

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Speaker 1: in that we have at least an agreement this morning.

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Speaker 1: But I think North American consumers basically lost because there

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Speaker 1: are many provisions in there which increase the UH protectionism

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Speaker 1: versus the rest of the world, specifically in autos but

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Speaker 1: also in yarns UH. And we have no change in

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Speaker 1: this deal and aluminum tariffs, so we see on these

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Speaker 1: main industries we're keeping the protection is lit on the

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Speaker 1: I was quite taken at my initial reading of this.

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Speaker 1: Of the gazillion items involved, the media thrust through no

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Speaker 1: fault of anyone, is about this issue or that issue

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Speaker 1: or a third issue. And yet for someone like Christian

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Speaker 1: Friedland or Mr Leightheiser, what is there five things that

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Speaker 1: they have to worry about? Yes, and they really do

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Speaker 1: focus on a few things. Of course, there was the

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Speaker 1: issue about so called Chapter nineteen, which has to do

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Speaker 1: with really just how Canada responds to US protection on

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Speaker 1: things that it believes there have been dumping or UH subsidies.

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Speaker 1: So there are particular issues that have really focused their attention.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the other text really is UH text

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Speaker 1: that was pioneered for the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations, So

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Speaker 1: they did have some great text already work with within

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Speaker 1: the t p P. Secretary Clinton voted against, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: voted against. And that you just said they had the

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Speaker 1: language Excuse me, they're the language available. How t p

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Speaker 1: P I love this, folks. How how t p P

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Speaker 1: is U s m c A off I drove by

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Speaker 1: the Pentagon. Come on, come on, Mary, Well, it does

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Speaker 1: reflect the president's m o tom, which is to repackage

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Speaker 1: things and brand them under his own name and pretend

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Speaker 1: that there are a lot different than they are. When

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Speaker 1: they say that this agreement needed modernization, basically we had

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Speaker 1: already modernized the agreement through the negotiations of the Transpacific Partnership.

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Speaker 1: So they brought in a lot of things from the

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Speaker 1: say on e commerce or on extended intellectual property. UH,

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Speaker 1: pushed it a little bit further with the Canadians and

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Speaker 1: the Mexicans, but basically pulled over the things that were

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Speaker 1: already there. So Mary, this is a new way of

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Speaker 1: doing deals. It is no longer about multilateral agreements, that

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Speaker 1: is about doing things bilaterally and then putting it all

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Speaker 1: together at the end. How difficult is it going to

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Speaker 1: be to take this approach that the president took with NAFTA,

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Speaker 1: to take this approach and apply to China. Um, I mean,

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Speaker 1: talk to me about how long this could take to

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Speaker 1: really got a deal. I don't even know if we'll

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Speaker 1: see a deal under this president. I don't think they

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Speaker 1: want a deal. One of the things that's hidden in

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Speaker 1: not hidden, it's their main site, but hasn't received much

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Speaker 1: attention yet. In the agreement that was in the last

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Speaker 1: night is a provision that neither none of the countries

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Speaker 1: So we can think of this is you know, don't

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Speaker 1: it is being done in a way that also raises

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Speaker 1: protection among the remaining rest of the country. That's brilliant.

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Speaker 1: That's what we love having you here. I mean, within

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Speaker 1: that little line is an example. Canada could do an

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Speaker 1: agreement with China, but then Mexico and the United States

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Speaker 1: have the ability to leave the U S. M c A.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly right, they have They can They can just

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Speaker 1: definitely signals the longer game in China that that's equivalent. Chinda,

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Speaker 1: if I have a cup of coffee in our Washington studio,

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Speaker 1: you have the ability to leave the show in New

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Speaker 1: York unless I'm allowed of coffee, and that would be

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Speaker 1: truly We're not allowed drinks in the New York studio yet. Mary,

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Speaker 1: here's a question because JP Morgan have come out of

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Speaker 1: the note in the last couple of days and it's

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Speaker 1: got a lot of attention. Their new baseline, the base

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Speaker 1: cases basically to assume that the US China endgame involves

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Speaker 1: U S tariffs on everything all Chinese goods. Is that

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Speaker 1: the base case at the Peterson Institute for you, Mary

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Speaker 1: as well, I would say yes it is. I can't

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Speaker 1: shared by many that that is where we're headed. Uh,

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Speaker 1: This administration seems to think that you create a strong

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Speaker 1: manufacturing base in the United States by closing out imports

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Speaker 1: from the rest of the world. Uh, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: see how that raises American productivity or brings more investment here.

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Speaker 1: So yes, this is that that scenario is completely consistent

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Speaker 1: with how they're playing the game. I get the microeconomics

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Speaker 1: of tax does not fall a hundred percent on Americans,

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Speaker 1: but the headline item is most of that tax falls

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Speaker 1: on the process in the consumers of America, right, yes,

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Speaker 1: and autos. We looked back at previous episodes and what's

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Speaker 1: unit dynamics to unit dynamics, sales of Mercedes go down, right,

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, that's that's for sure. What we

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Speaker 1: also find though, is about se of the tariff is

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Speaker 1: likely to be borne by consumers and you say seventy,

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Speaker 1: which a lot of people have disputed, but you know,

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Speaker 1: when we look back at the historical record, that's what

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Speaker 1: we see in this area. So I think American are

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Speaker 1: going to be in for a big awakening when we

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Speaker 1: hit those tariffs and they look at auto prices more lovely,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, as always with the Peterson Institute

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Speaker 1: for starting your Washington Day with US is well. Tom,

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Speaker 1: I've got to say the trade story looking a whole

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Speaker 1: lot smoother than the other story developing in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: Over the last several months. And of course I'm talking

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Speaker 1: about High Court nominee Brett havanas sen it testimony last

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Speaker 1: week in response to sexual allegations allegations of sexual assault.

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Speaker 1: I mean, a real politicization of this whole process um

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Speaker 1: in a way that I've never seen before. Tom, It's true,

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Speaker 1: I've never seen before, even going back to a needy

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Speaker 1: held them before that before this in the sixties, John

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Speaker 1: Farroll and Tom Keenan Now an important conversation with Kimberly

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Speaker 1: Robinson of Bloomberg Law in the Business Intelligence Center. Kimberly

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Speaker 1: Robertson with parchment from out west Arizona State and then

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Speaker 1: of course from Lumbia University as well as a practicing attorney. Kimberly,

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Speaker 1: I want to go bigger and broader here and within

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Speaker 1: the comedy of the weekend, and I'm going to be direct.

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Speaker 1: The comedy is usually very East Coast liberal, in this

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Speaker 1: case anti Kavanaugh biased. It was a hilarious moment where

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Speaker 1: it was Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and within the comedy, the

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Speaker 1: woman put up a sign don't die, which was, you know,

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Speaker 1: one view of the Supreme Court. Let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: institution right now. What does the institution do with Kavanaugh

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Speaker 1: or without Kavanaugh? Forward? Well, you know, this is uh

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Speaker 1: a court that really cares deeply about the institution itself

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Speaker 1: and its integrity. And so going forward, we've seen the

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Speaker 1: justices in the past really try to um hold itself

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Speaker 1: back whenever it's really put into the political limelight like

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Speaker 1: it is now. And so we see them really having

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Speaker 1: narrower decisions. They don't take as many hot button issues.

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Speaker 1: But that's just in the short term. In the long term, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know that it's going to be a harder question.

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Speaker 1: Does the court run at four four? I mean, if

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Speaker 1: we get to the politics of the mid term election

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Speaker 1: and all, how is it different for Ruth Bader Ginsburg,

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Speaker 1: How is it different for Clarence Thomas if it's an

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Speaker 1: eight people court and not a nine people court. Well,

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Speaker 1: we heard about this whenever Republicans held open the seat

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Speaker 1: uh that is now filled by Justice cour such, the

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Speaker 1: court had just eight justices for a number of months,

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Speaker 1: and so we heard from the Justices of themselves that

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Speaker 1: it really takes a lot of collaboration, um and that

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Speaker 1: can be frustrating for them. They don't get to decide

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Speaker 1: the issues that they really wanted to a lot of

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Speaker 1: times they have to decide these side issues. UM. So

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Speaker 1: in some ways that's good, it makes them collaborate a

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Speaker 1: little bit more, but it doesn't allow the Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: to operate as it normally does. John Ferrell, in a

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Speaker 1: really smart moment this morning, emphasized that for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world, this is just completely four and there's

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Speaker 1: something unique about the judiciary within our executive, legislative and

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Speaker 1: judiciary tripod. Is that leg of the tripod? Is it shaking?

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Speaker 1: Is it quaking or is it just removed from all

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Speaker 1: the politics that we observe last week? Well, I think

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Speaker 1: it's definitely been threatened with this confirmation process. But it's

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Speaker 1: important to remember that this isn't the first time that

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court has been thrust into the political limelight.

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Speaker 1: You know. Sometimes, so what happened after I need to hell,

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Speaker 1: what happened after a four and even if with Noah

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Speaker 1: Feldben scorpions, we go back to the FDR court stacking

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Speaker 1: that we saw on the thirties. What actually happens, Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, again, it's up to the Court to really

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Speaker 1: pull itself back, to stay out of these really big

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Speaker 1: contentious issues, to restore faith in the American people again

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Speaker 1: and get back to kind of its regular work. And

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Speaker 1: that you know, a lot of times isn't as sexy,

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Speaker 1: um as we've been accustomed to from the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 1: But that's really a majority of what the Court does.

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Speaker 1: Can Judge Kevanaugh continue forward if he becomes a Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court judge or he continues his present duties. Do you

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Speaker 1: have a I don't want to get you in a

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Speaker 1: difficult position here, but is that something that pros like

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Speaker 1: you are considering. I've been really struggling with how to

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Speaker 1: cover Judge Kavanaugh if he becomes Justice Kavanaugh in part

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Speaker 1: because of the political nature of his speech, and I

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Speaker 1: think we'll see going forward people try and getting him

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Speaker 1: to recuse himself on very politically charged issues. Whether or

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Speaker 1: not he will do so will remain an open question. Um.

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Speaker 1: But you know, it's hard to cover somebody who's so

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Speaker 1: purposely interjected politics into the judiciary. Did he do that

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Speaker 1: or did other people do it for him? Yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: a good question. I think what I'm talking about is

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Speaker 1: the explicit nature of him inciting the Clinton's um But

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Speaker 1: I see your point that there there there is always

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Speaker 1: politics underlying these confirmation battles. That's nothing new from from

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Speaker 1: the nomination. Thank you so much. We really value actual

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Speaker 1: pro perspective on some of these issues away from the punditry.

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Speaker 1: It goes on Kimberly Robinson with parchment from Columbia University

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Speaker 1: writing for Bloomberg Law. And we really value this. And

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Speaker 1: I can speak here in Washington and Gregg Store and

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Speaker 1: so many others of our legal effort at Bloomberg, which

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Speaker 1: is just really a tour to force to say, uh

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Speaker 1: the least. Now we speak to somebody within the trenches

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Speaker 1: of getting things done at the International Monetary Fund. Obviously

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Speaker 1: Lassa out of the London School of Economics and Economic History.

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Speaker 1: Uh in his Ethiopia, he has done the tours of

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Speaker 1: duty in Africa, and he joins us now is we

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Speaker 1: look at what he has entitled the Africa Century. Wonderful

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Speaker 1: to have you with us today. I want you to

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Speaker 1: explained to our particular American audience. You're a minted, degreed economist.

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Speaker 1: You go before the i m F quaking and you're

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Speaker 1: lucky enough to get a job. What's the process in

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Speaker 1: a region within the IMF. Do you start out like

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Speaker 1: getting coffee for somebody and then what do you do?

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Speaker 1: What do you? What do you do? Three years on,

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Speaker 1: seven years and ten years on? So you know, I

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Speaker 1: joined through what we call the Economist program, which is

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Speaker 1: the standard intake program that we have at the i

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Speaker 1: m F l aid and you know some so you know,

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Speaker 1: we start out by doing a lot of data crunching

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Speaker 1: work on all kinds of countries. Initially you do a

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Speaker 1: tour of you know, around the world basis you're in

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Speaker 1: Uganda at one point. I lived in Uganda much later

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Speaker 1: than my career, but when I started out, first country

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Speaker 1: I worked on was Kenya and then moved to another

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Speaker 1: department to work on Estonia, Romania, Thailand, a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: of series of countries as you're growing up the ranks

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Speaker 1: and learning how to work with you know, low income countries,

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Speaker 1: emerging markets, and advanced countries. I'm going to open my

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Speaker 1: conversation with Madam guard Day and most as you attend

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Speaker 1: Bali on Indonesia and the earthquake and this horrific tsunami

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Speaker 1: and the things we don't know on a Monday morning

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Speaker 1: in America about this death and this destruction. What's the

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Speaker 1: number one thing the media and people in general get

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Speaker 1: wrong about your International Monetary Fund? I think it is

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Speaker 1: this perception that we are simply very technocratic and don't

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Speaker 1: think and care about the outcomes that that we that

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Speaker 1: economic policies meant to engender. You know, we spend most

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Speaker 1: of our time actually focusing and thinking about how to

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Speaker 1: how to ensure countries. Developing countries, for example, can't grow

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Speaker 1: in a sustainable and more as importantly equitable way. So

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Speaker 1: that's an important focus of our policy advice, our work.

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Speaker 1: The perception too often seems to be that we are

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Speaker 1: all about making sure the numbers add up, but we

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Speaker 1: want to be sure that they add up in a

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Speaker 1: way that actually improves standards of livings. So also, you

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Speaker 1: wrote it on important paper, the African Century. Are we

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Speaker 1: in the African century or does it wait? With that

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Speaker 1: explosive demographic economics, I think you know this is the

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Speaker 1: African century, this century, and two reasons for that. I

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Speaker 1: think first is that by as as soon as twenty thirty,

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Speaker 1: half of the annual increase in the global labor force

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Speaker 1: will actually be coming from Sub Sahara and Africa half

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Speaker 1: of the annual labor force increase. What does that mean?

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Speaker 1: That means that any economic activity of scale will need

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Speaker 1: to happen in Sub Saharan Africa because that's where the

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Speaker 1: where will the investment come from? I mean, is it China, China, China?

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Speaker 1: Hopefully it's not just China, but a range of other countries.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you've seen Today's Peace and Lost,

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Speaker 1: all the Street journal for example, talking about the car

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Speaker 1: industry now shifting it's focused on to Africa because that's

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Speaker 1: where the demand is. So you're seeing companies like Pejau

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Speaker 1: Bolt and all focusing there. So China is a story,

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Speaker 1: but you're seeing all the emerging e m s and

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Speaker 1: l GM you know, Turkey, h India, Brazil also old

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Speaker 1: beginning to focus about in Africa. How do you respond

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Speaker 1: to what Bill Easterly and Jeff Sex can agree on

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Speaker 1: two people to economies folks don't agree and maybe the

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Speaker 1: money allocation to third to em in the frontier economies,

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Speaker 1: But how do you respond to the pernicious corruption that

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Speaker 1: is within Africa? Frankly around much of the world. Is

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Speaker 1: it improving or how do we improve what seems to

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Speaker 1: be embedded corruption? So I look, um, I think it's

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Speaker 1: important to to uh think about Southern Africa as having

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Speaker 1: you know, still having fairly weak institutions in terms of

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Speaker 1: in terms of economic governance, in terms of political governance.

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Speaker 1: So corruption is a problem, but certainly I think it's

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Speaker 1: much more better. I mean, it's ameliorated considerably relative to

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Speaker 1: the ninety eighties and nineties when institutions were weaker. Otherwise,

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Speaker 1: I don't think you would have seen this uh tremendous

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Speaker 1: increase in growth that we've seen and reach over the

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Speaker 1: last years. And that to me, I think, I you know,

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Speaker 1: has a lot to do with the improvement in political governance.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot more constrained leaders than you did

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Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties. By no means are you know,

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Speaker 1: democratic and political and economic institutions perfect, but they certainly

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Speaker 1: have considerably. I must ask about Ebola in the distrust

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Speaker 1: that we see just in the last number of weeks,

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Speaker 1: about some form of reformation of it. I understand wh

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Speaker 1: o World Health Organization. There's a lot here, but you

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00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: were on the watch with the I m F in

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00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 1: attempting to assist these countries with EBOL. Describe what you

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Speaker 1: accomplished and where are we now versus the huge year

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00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: over a bowl of a number of years ago. So

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Speaker 1: you know, the able outbreak of twenty fourteen was by

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Speaker 1: far the most threatening, I think, both to the region

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Speaker 1: and more globally. That one UM was a little unique

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Speaker 1: in that before that called a ball outbreaks had been

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Speaker 1: in DRC Uganda, where health workers and governments knew how

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Speaker 1: to handle it quickly. Outbreak was in was in West

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Speaker 1: Africa where there hadn't been that experience of early detection

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Speaker 1: and treating. That's why it's royaled the whole manner River

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Speaker 1: basin countries, Gay librarian Saralion h the latest outbreakers in DRC,

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00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: and we've had two outbreaks, one in the summer and

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00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: another recent one. The summer one was put out fairly quickly.

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Speaker 1: This one is a bit more in an area where

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00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: there's a lot more conflict going on and is of

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00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,959
Speaker 1: some concern UM. But you know, the front line workers

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00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: are the ones that are handling it, and we come

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Speaker 1: in and try and support countries when it gets to

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Speaker 1: scale and UH and they ask for balance of payment

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Speaker 1: assistance if you just joining us where this's the International

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Speaker 1: Monetary Fund. UH. He is director of the I M

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Speaker 1: S African Department. We spoke with leadership from Botswana during

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Speaker 1: the u N Week and number of other African countries

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Speaker 1: as well, of course South Africa UH as well in

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Speaker 1: the dynamic of what I'm gonna call sub sub Sahara Africa.

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Speaker 1: You know America, you know Americans. I'm sorry, but we

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00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 1: barely know the map. It's not much removed from Livingstone

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Speaker 1: and standing from another time and place way down beneath

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Speaker 1: that demarcation of green and sand. Uh is South Africa

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Speaker 1: is Botswana? Are they leading in terms of rule of law?

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Speaker 1: Or are they now following other more stable countries with

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00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: better institutions. I think Botswana is you know, again, there's

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00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: a tendency to generalize Africa Africa and see it as

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00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: a as a single country, but of course there's tremendously

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Speaker 1: through genat and I think Botswana that you bring up

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00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: is a great example of a country that's been growing

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Speaker 1: six seven percentage actually an upper middle income country with

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Speaker 1: very strong democratic and political and economic institutions. UH. South

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00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: Africa also has very strong you know, UH institutions. UH.

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Speaker 1: Also in democracy since the nine so in terms of

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Speaker 1: the quality of political and you know, judiciary, UH, independent judiciary.

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00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 1: I think those two are great examples. Well obviously has

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Speaker 1: see Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With you.

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Speaker 1: I am for twenty four years director of their exceptionally

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00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 1: important Africa African Department, I should say, and of course

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Speaker 1: part of their effort as they moved to Bali in

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Speaker 1: Indonesia for their annual meeting as well. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews

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00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.