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Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, Welcome to an episode of the Market Disruptor Show,

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Speaker 1: and today I am sitting down with Ralph Paul Um.

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Speaker 1: He is the co founder of Real Vision. It probably

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Speaker 1: doesn't need much of an introduction here on my show.

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Speaker 1: I've been a big fan of work and I'm excited

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Speaker 1: to talk to you today, Ralph. I'm alright. Good. So,

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Speaker 1: um Man, you put out a ton of content, so

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Speaker 1: there's a bunch of different angles that we can go down.

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Speaker 1: Um And again, you probably don't need a lot of introduction,

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Speaker 1: so we don't need to go deep into that. But um,

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Speaker 1: you are a macro investor. That's kind of been your career. UM,

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Speaker 1: and that's kind of still what you're doing today. Maybe

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Speaker 1: just kind of give us an overview of what that

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Speaker 1: is and kind of what you're doing. Yes, So macro

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Speaker 1: investing really is looking at major economic trends and dislocations

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Speaker 1: and and investing in asset process the UM versus that

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Speaker 1: framework of understanding. So you know, if the business cycle

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Speaker 1: is going down and go into recession, you're gonna be

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Speaker 1: short various things. You're gonna be long one country versus another.

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Speaker 1: You're looking to choose the right assets. You're kind of

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Speaker 1: asset agnostic, and you're looking across the world to see, Okay,

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Speaker 1: how is the global economy moving, is this mispriced, underpriced,

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Speaker 1: or what is the trend based on that? So so

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Speaker 1: it's a lot of kind of where economics meets markets

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Speaker 1: and it's super interesting because it takes you everywhere, whether

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Speaker 1: you're investing in Indian equities or cryptocurrencies. Yes, so you're

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Speaker 1: kind of taking into account the politics, the economics, I mean,

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Speaker 1: all the data, and just kind of what they say

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Speaker 1: about Wayne Gretzky trying to skip to where the puck

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Speaker 1: is going to be almost that's right. So as a

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Speaker 1: macro investor, you're trying to solve the world's most beautiful puzzle.

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Speaker 1: It's this endless three D puzzle you can sold for

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Speaker 1: seconds then it disappears again. So it's a great intellectual pursuit.

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Speaker 1: But the way to do it successfully's to live in

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Speaker 1: the future and look back for probable futures. You know,

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Speaker 1: what is the potential outcome? How's this price? Is this

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Speaker 1: miss price not priced in or correctly priced? So that's

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Speaker 1: what you're trying to do all the time. I find

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Speaker 1: the further out you go, the more edge you get.

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Speaker 1: But the harder it is to get to certainty, so

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Speaker 1: then you're really thinking in terms of, well could this that,

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Speaker 1: look at that happen, Which is why you know, stuff

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Speaker 1: like the crypto wild really interest me because there's a

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Speaker 1: ton of possible futures out there and different outcomes that

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Speaker 1: we can invest in that all have huge upsides. So that's,

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Speaker 1: you know, that's the basis of what we try and do,

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Speaker 1: or certainly I try and do. Yeah, So for everybody

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Speaker 1: that's tuned in right now, we're gonna dig into some

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Speaker 1: really good stuff. We're gonna I'm gonna ask you about

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Speaker 1: kind of what you're seeing in the macro picture today.

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Speaker 1: I want to dig into some of the work that

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Speaker 1: you've done about what you're calling like in the regime

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Speaker 1: and this insolvency phase that we're kind of going through.

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Speaker 1: What that means for us on a global scale, from

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Speaker 1: our money politics, central make digital currencies, cryptocurrencies, and if

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Speaker 1: we have time, we might even get into some kind

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Speaker 1: of projections and things like that. So if everybody listening,

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Speaker 1: just make sure you're sticking around for all that, because

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Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna really dig into some good stuff.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna start at a higher level and then we'll

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Speaker 1: kind of push down as I think a good macro

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Speaker 1: person would do so. Um. As far as macro, I

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Speaker 1: think anybody investing is always trying to guess what the

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Speaker 1: future is going to be. I guess it's probably just

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Speaker 1: different time frames. If you're a trader, they're very short term.

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Speaker 1: Macro is probably long term. Do you think that it's

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Speaker 1: easier probably to get the bigger picture right than it

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Speaker 1: is the short term picture? Like if somebody says, hey, hey, Rald,

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Speaker 1: what's the price of this asset gonna be next month

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Speaker 1: or the next week? You're like, I don't know, because

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Speaker 1: different people have different skill sets. Um, and I prefer

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Speaker 1: the longer term time right, And I'm just better at it.

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Speaker 1: I'm a terrible short term trader. Doesn't mean people like

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Speaker 1: Stevie Cohen will pulled to the journs to a brilliant

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Speaker 1: short term traders. Um. You know, they can be incredibly

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Speaker 1: successful at it. So it just depends what suits you, right.

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Speaker 1: I'm a very visual person. I say the whole kind

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Speaker 1: of macro framework come ahead at all times. I'm always

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Speaker 1: kind of adjusting it, and those things I find play

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Speaker 1: out better over minimum three months but generally, you know,

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Speaker 1: six months to eighteen and sometimes further out as well.

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Speaker 1: I just find it. I just get better returns from it. Sure, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I kind of feel the same way. Um, it's easier

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Speaker 1: for me to see the big picture. Even with my business.

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Speaker 1: It's like I can't really dig into the details. I

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Speaker 1: still like to look at the big picture. But talking

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Speaker 1: about the big picture, maybe why don't you just set

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Speaker 1: up for us, I guess what you're seeing in the

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Speaker 1: macro economic picture right now. So we'll go back a

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Speaker 1: bit very quickly. So we've been in this debt supercycle

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Speaker 1: that we all know about. And the answer in two

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Speaker 1: thousand after the internet boom was more debt. It's led

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Speaker 1: to the housing boom, which led to the banking bus

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Speaker 1: and the answer to that was more debt at corporate level,

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Speaker 1: now still somewhein the banking system, and then government debt

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Speaker 1: because government started trying to monetize this debt. So and

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Speaker 1: the central banks have now put it onto their balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: So it's not going away. It's just keeps growing, keeps

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Speaker 1: getting moved around like a game of Past the parcel.

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Speaker 1: So we kind of knew that the next time we

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Speaker 1: had a recession, debt was going to be a issue

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Speaker 1: again because it hadn't gone away. In fact that I

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Speaker 1: got worse. So I've been you know, it's really interesting

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Speaker 1: economists never forecast recessions, which is bizarre to me because

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Speaker 1: if you show a small child a chart of GDP,

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Speaker 1: they said, what, it goes up and down. It's like

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Speaker 1: a cycle, right, it's a sign wave. You just don't

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Speaker 1: know how deep or how high the peaks and troughs

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Speaker 1: are and how far they are apart. But you approximately no,

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Speaker 1: which is why it's kind of forecastable. So I've been

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Speaker 1: looking for the end of this cycle and a recession

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Speaker 1: back from about two thousand and eighteen. By two thousand nineteen,

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Speaker 1: I was kind of locked and loaded into bonds where

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Speaker 1: the best trade was, and then it was coming. Then

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Speaker 1: the pandemic came and I saw it immediately, is okay,

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Speaker 1: this is the accelerator, right, this is a huge thing.

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Speaker 1: I was very early and got it very very right

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Speaker 1: early on and luckily and that phase and looked that said, okay,

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Speaker 1: now we've got the situation where we've seen the worst

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Speaker 1: ever GDP dropping all history outside of the Great Depression,

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Speaker 1: and the market usually goes through certain phases during a recession.

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Speaker 1: It's normal. First is the liquidation phase, when everybody goes,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, everything's changed. I need to readjust my

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Speaker 1: risk right. Then you have the hope phase, which is, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's not that bad. You know, in the media

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Speaker 1: tends play a big role in that because they don't

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Speaker 1: want the negative narratives, so it's it's all going to

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Speaker 1: be okay. And then usually what happens is you get

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Speaker 1: the final reality phase, So the normal reality phases when

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Speaker 1: people go, actually, you know, this is pretty bad. Unemployment

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Speaker 1: is still sticky, and the economy, consumer confidence, and the

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Speaker 1: stock market tend to roll over together. This time around,

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Speaker 1: I looked at this and thought, well, we don't know,

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Speaker 1: because of central bank actions, how this is going to

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Speaker 1: play out in some of these assets, but I know

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Speaker 1: that everybody is probably pricing how long this episode goes

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Speaker 1: on for wrongly, because every wants to assume it's going

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Speaker 1: to be over and done with. And here we are

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Speaker 1: now in peak pandemic across Europe, in the US, UM

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Speaker 1: and in other countries again, and people starting to understand, okay,

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Speaker 1: actually this is gonna last longer. So I termed that

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Speaker 1: phase the insolvency phase, because the problem is is GDP

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Speaker 1: growth collapsed. It came up a bit, and then it's

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Speaker 1: flat blind. If you see all that real time economic data,

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Speaker 1: like the Google mobility data, it's flatline. In fact, it's

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Speaker 1: rolling over. What's telling us is that GDP growth is

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Speaker 1: still about negative five percent year on year, which is

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Speaker 1: the worst reception you and I have ever lived through.

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Speaker 1: And that's ongoing after the kind of hope phased recovery

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Speaker 1: because the first part was so bad. So if you

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Speaker 1: think of what does that mean, it means that if

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Speaker 1: you're a restaurant or a small business or even a

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Speaker 1: large business that's not Internet based, right now, your revenues

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Speaker 1: have dropped, but your cost base remains um and that

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Speaker 1: makes you insolvent after a while, as you blow through

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Speaker 1: your cash and then the government gives you some cash,

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Speaker 1: and then they stopped the stimulus, and then you've got

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Speaker 1: no cash and you're out of business, and that's insolvency. Now.

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Speaker 1: The FED stepped in quickly to stop the insolvency of

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Speaker 1: big corporations like General Electric and Forward by buying their bonds,

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Speaker 1: but the government stimulus gave that check a while ago.

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Speaker 1: Whatever that was like made to people and small businesses.

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Speaker 1: It's been nothing since, even Europe struggling to get more

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Speaker 1: stimulus through, so kind of it's a bit of a

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Speaker 1: wily coyote moment, the insolvency phases where you run off

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Speaker 1: the edge of the cliff and it's like it's fine

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Speaker 1: out here, and then you're like, oh no, it's not,

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Speaker 1: and we're seeing it everywhere. And I worry about what

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Speaker 1: that insolvency phase means because in the end, it means

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Speaker 1: that central banks have to print more money. You have

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Speaker 1: to try and jam it into the banking system and

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Speaker 1: try and force the banks to lend it, which they

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Speaker 1: don't want to do. And they also have to try

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Speaker 1: their ext stimulus for fiscal stimulus by the governments and

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Speaker 1: monetize that debt too. So basically we've still got this

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Speaker 1: massive transfer of insolvency off that private sector balance sheet

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Speaker 1: onto the onto the government and balance shape. Right. The

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Speaker 1: whole process is slightly scary, right, And I think, as

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Speaker 1: you said, we're in this debt cycle and we're nearing

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Speaker 1: the end. But I think a lot of people have

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Speaker 1: been calling for the end of the debt cycle for

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Speaker 1: a long time, and I think timing is always the

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Speaker 1: hard problem, right We we always know what's inevitable, but

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Speaker 1: when and so we have this insolvency phase. But it

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Speaker 1: looks like we've seen the at least in the United States,

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Speaker 1: the FED um be very willing to work. Right In

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Speaker 1: two thousand eight it was a trillion dollars pretty quickly too.

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Speaker 1: This year was three three trillion pretty quickly, and with

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Speaker 1: the government it was six trillion, you know, total. And

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Speaker 1: it seems though, like I understand you're saying, like they've

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Speaker 1: stalled out on this last round of stimulus and people

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Speaker 1: are running out of money, but they've shown how willing

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Speaker 1: they are to move fast and hard and heavy. Instead

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Speaker 1: of one trillion, it was six trillion. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: wouldn't just spend six chillion to let it fall apart now.

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Speaker 1: I mean, don't you think they're gonna do whatever it's

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Speaker 1: gonna take, or do you think it may be too late?

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Speaker 1: Of course, of course they do. And that's the whole

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Speaker 1: point is you don't get rid of a debt supercycle

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Speaker 1: by letting everybody go bust. You do it by trying

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Speaker 1: to support every single part that you can. And what

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Speaker 1: you're doing in essence is you're just printing a lot

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Speaker 1: of money, so you're devaluing the value of money itself. Yep.

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Speaker 1: And that's the real issue here is there is no

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Speaker 1: one off reset of debts and everybody goes back to

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Speaker 1: the dark ages and you start again. It just doesn't

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Speaker 1: work that way because, as you said, governments are highly

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Speaker 1: incentivized to protect the people who voted them in, right. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So they're trying to keep all the plates spinning, so

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Speaker 1: to speak, and eventually they can't keep mob spinning, and

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Speaker 1: they aren't. They are crashed. So it's kind of a

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Speaker 1: as I've been seeing. It's kind of a go tell

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Speaker 1: your blow tape tape scenario. Yeah. Now, And the problem

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Speaker 1: is is people we don't know what that The end

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Speaker 1: game of that is. Some people want to price in

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Speaker 1: hyper inflation. I don't think that's coming. Some people want

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Speaker 1: to apply to a lot of inflation. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's coming either, because of the aging population and the

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Speaker 1: debt demographics. Icael, I think it's more deflation, right, Um,

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Speaker 1: But whatever it is, this takes a long time to

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Speaker 1: play out. And what's what's a long time. I think

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Speaker 1: the de leveraging that has to happen in whichever way,

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Speaker 1: shape or form, probably twenty years um. And that's that

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Speaker 1: means a lot lower economic growth, the less value of

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Speaker 1: your own currency, and eventually we might move to a

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Speaker 1: different system, which is what we'll come into in a bit. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I want to move into that conversation, but before

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Speaker 1: we do, the the inflation, the the the inflation hyper inflation,

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Speaker 1: or the de leveraging the deflation seems to be the debate, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I've had I've asked that that question many times,

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Speaker 1: but it seems like maybe it's actually a very nuanced conversation,

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Speaker 1: and there's both because we're seeing I mean, where I'm

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Speaker 1: at here in the United States, you can't buy anything.

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Speaker 1: You can't buy a bicycle, you can't buy a surfboard,

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Speaker 1: you can't buy an r V, you can't buy a car,

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Speaker 1: you can't buy a house. I mean, it's inflated so

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Speaker 1: fast it makes your head spin. But yet there's deeply

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Speaker 1: so it almost seems like we're going to see both. Yes,

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Speaker 1: And one of the things I've written a lot about

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Speaker 1: is wage deflation. If you look at wages adjusted for

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Speaker 1: inflation since nineteen seventy four, that basically remained flat, so

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Speaker 1: people because of globalization, the number of people entering the

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Speaker 1: workforce from the Baby Boomers and now the millennials, plus

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Speaker 1: the globalization and technology have all meant that humans are

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Speaker 1: getting replaced either with cheaper workers abroad, or they're competing

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Speaker 1: against each other because there's so many of the people

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Speaker 1: of the same age, or they're competing against computers. That's

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Speaker 1: a terrible situation. And that's not a fault of anybody.

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Speaker 1: So if it's a fault of anybody, it's the parents

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Speaker 1: of the people who had all these baby boomers, and

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Speaker 1: that was World War Two that drove that. Well, that's

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Speaker 1: not a terrible thing. I think per per like Jeff

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Speaker 1: boosts argument you know about deflation, which I know you

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Speaker 1: you know you're familiar with. Um. It seems like human

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Speaker 1: nature always wants deflation. Right, instead of making a bunch

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Speaker 1: of trips holding stuff with my hands, I'll create a

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Speaker 1: whil barrel to make my work easier. And like computers

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Speaker 1: and robots, Like I watched the Jetsons when I was

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Speaker 1: a kid, and they had a robot that cleaned the house,

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Speaker 1: and it's like, oh, how cool would there be of

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Speaker 1: a robot cleaned house? So a seems like we naturally

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Speaker 1: want that, and it's a good thing to do, but

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Speaker 1: we've got this one problem is this to eight these

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Speaker 1: two cohorts, the baby boomers and the millennials, too many

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Speaker 1: of them. If you're Japan, which didn't have the echo

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Speaker 1: millennial boom, this is exactly all you want. You want

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Speaker 1: some deflation because you'll say a savings nation. And do

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Speaker 1: you want over time because you've got a massive loss

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Speaker 1: of workforce to replace them with robots? Of course you do,

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Speaker 1: And that's the right answers because of World War Two

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Speaker 1: that we end up with these too many groups of

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Speaker 1: people because all the baby boomers had kids as well,

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Speaker 1: So this kind of demographic mess needs to sort itself through.

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Speaker 1: It's not normal. This is a really weird time. That's

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Speaker 1: why we store the massive inflation of the seven sis.

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Speaker 1: We've seen all of the debt cycle. What I did

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Speaker 1: is I took average household earnings in inflation just in terms,

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Speaker 1: and adjusted them for the amount of household debt, and

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Speaker 1: then exactly mirrors the rise and asset classes. So basically

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Speaker 1: what people have done the inflation we've seen in assets

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Speaker 1: and wage deflation. The difference is the debt. So people

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Speaker 1: could participate in the economy. So it's kind of they

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Speaker 1: did a rational thing, but too many people did irrational thing,

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Speaker 1: tensively irrational. Well, it seems like we have I I

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Speaker 1: do understand the demographics, and you're right. I've been following

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Speaker 1: Harry Dent for like over a decade, and he definitely

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Speaker 1: has to pioneered a lot on the demographics. But it

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Speaker 1: seems like it's maybe because we have incompatible systems where

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Speaker 1: we have a def human nature is deflationary, but we

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Speaker 1: have an inflationary system. So if we had an inflation

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Speaker 1: a deflationary system with a deflationary nature, maybe something would

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Speaker 1: be different. I guess we don't know. I think, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that maybe it's the argument why we've seen wage deflation

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Speaker 1: and asset price inflation. Um, maybe it's exactly that. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. It probably makes sense. So, UM, we are

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Speaker 1: where we are, as you like to say, right, whether

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Speaker 1: we like it or not, Where we are and and

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Speaker 1: and things are are moving very very fast. And UM,

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Speaker 1: I want to get into um a big topic, which is, UM,

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Speaker 1: a few things. There's a few things that seem to

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Speaker 1: be kind of converging together. And UM, really, I mean

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Speaker 1: you've talked about like the Fourth Turning. And now we

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Speaker 1: talk about I mean, we have the Bretton Woods calling

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Speaker 1: for or I m F calling for Bretton Woods to

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Speaker 1: moment at the same time that the World Economic Forums

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Speaker 1: calling for this great reset, and they all seem to

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Speaker 1: be kind of converging right here where something big is

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Speaker 1: going to happen next year. UM. I know you've talked

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Speaker 1: quite a bit about that Bretton Woods Too moment. Maybe

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Speaker 1: that means bringing the world back together onto a onto

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Speaker 1: a one world currency kind of like Bretton Woods one. Um.

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Speaker 1: And then we have the great reset that's coming together.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what are you seeing in that whole mess

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Speaker 1: kind of converging. It's um, it's a hill bloom. You've

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Speaker 1: seen around on Twitter stuff talks about recently about the

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Speaker 1: Overtson window, which is a political opportunity, moments of opportunity

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Speaker 1: when you can affect great change. Most changes can't happen

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Speaker 1: except in extraordinary times, right, And this is what the

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Speaker 1: Fourth Turning was about. Is when you get the shift

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Speaker 1: in the handover of power from one demographic to the other,

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Speaker 1: it changes the end of a system because people in

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Speaker 1: different ways of doing things. So this overt and windows

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Speaker 1: as wide as it's probably ever been, because everybody knows

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Speaker 1: they need something different. Whether you're on the left, whether

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Speaker 1: you're on the right, whether a crypto anarchists or a

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Speaker 1: gold bug, everybody knows something needs to change. Or you're

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Speaker 1: a student, we all know you don't know what the

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Speaker 1: answer is. But what it does mean is is that

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Speaker 1: there's a hard probability that something big will happen, and

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Speaker 1: we're hearing about it. So one of the things that

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Speaker 1: these central banks and these government bodies and supernational bodies

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Speaker 1: are looking at, they're looking at one of the problems

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Speaker 1: that they're seeing is that the fact that the US

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Speaker 1: world GDP and of every currency transaction on Earth, and

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Speaker 1: this can't work guides we can't, you know, if you're

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Speaker 1: South Africa or Brazil or Argentina, you can't live in

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Speaker 1: a world where you have to borrow in a currency

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Speaker 1: that's not your own, that goes up and down in

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Speaker 1: huge cycles, and you're you're having to pander to both

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Speaker 1: the swift payment system and and UM and the banking

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Speaker 1: system that may or may not have access to dollars.

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Speaker 1: So they're all saying, listen, this has to stop. It's

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Speaker 1: creating a huge problem part of the big offshore dollar

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Speaker 1: lending mark. And when you say they are saying it

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Speaker 1: has to stop, who's they? So that is the I

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Speaker 1: m F, which is basically the e c B, the

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Speaker 1: Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, probably the Royal

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Speaker 1: Bank of Canada, I mean the Bank Canada. I mean

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Speaker 1: almost all the central banks are saying this cannot go on.

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Speaker 1: Obviously the FED wants it to go on because they're

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Speaker 1: the reserve currency. Everyone's saying that, right, this has gone

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Speaker 1: too far. This is one of the reasons why Bretton

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Speaker 1: Woods happened in the first place. It's also the reason

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Speaker 1: why the US left Bretton Woods. Is when something goes

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Speaker 1: too far and it comes unmanageable for everybody, every he

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Speaker 1: seeks a different answer. And what we've seen is the

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Speaker 1: rise of populism and anger, whether it's from the left

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Speaker 1: or the right, that we want change. And that's classically

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Speaker 1: Neil Holl's forth turning as well. So people are now

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Speaker 1: realizing that the digital world is going to offer us

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Speaker 1: some change. Think of one of the other super narratives

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Speaker 1: that we live in, the one verse, right, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen that the printing of money and giving it to

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Speaker 1: the banks only gives money to people who can get

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Speaker 1: access to credit, which is the richer people, right, So

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Speaker 1: it doesn't work. So that we're seeing the rise of

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Speaker 1: the m m T story, a massive fiscal stimulus, but

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Speaker 1: even that normally goes in the hands of the wrong people.

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Speaker 1: A few corporates lie in their back pockets. But we're

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Speaker 1: seeing the central bank digital currency story rising, which is

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Speaker 1: what the IMF for talking about, which is, well, maybe

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Speaker 1: maybe we allow programmable money where Mark and rail get

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Speaker 1: different rates of interest, or they stimulate your you know,

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Speaker 1: your friends surf shack because it's closed down because of

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, and they penalize them some savor or somewhere else,

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Speaker 1: whatever it may be. You can use behavior economics to

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Speaker 1: drive incentive systems to get the economy to function better.

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Speaker 1: That's amazing. It's amazing behavior and sensive systems work better

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Speaker 1: than anything else. They're also terrifying because they can be

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Speaker 1: stronger than everything else. And we've seen that. But Twitter

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Speaker 1: and Google, right, and politicization of people who are not

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Speaker 1: that political, they got driven down alleyways where they hated

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Speaker 1: everybody else because of how behavioral economics works on these

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Speaker 1: big data platforms. So that's all that's all coming here now, Um,

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Speaker 1: just a sidetrack there a little bit. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: talked about this debt based system and we have to

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Speaker 1: keep paling more debt and it's almost like, um, it's

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Speaker 1: not working, so let's just keep doing more of it.

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Speaker 1: Like we've we've you said, we've got this divide between

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Speaker 1: then and the one percent. We have this incoming equality.

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Speaker 1: Um that's created by this system. But let's just keep

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Speaker 1: doing more of it. And now we kind of have

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Speaker 1: again we have different political factions and some people are

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Speaker 1: calling for everything has to be equal, not just equal opportunity,

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Speaker 1: but now it has to be an equal outcome. But

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Speaker 1: what you're talking about is the exact opposite. Now we're

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Speaker 1: gonna treat everybody not equally. So what again, If we

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Speaker 1: think of incentives and game theory, individual governments will always

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Speaker 1: choose to maintain the status quo because to do something

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Speaker 1: dramatically different is terrifying, and that's all they try and do, really,

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Speaker 1: and the status quo is really to protect their power.

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Speaker 1: Exactly when you're the I m F. You don't think

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Speaker 1: in those terms, Do you think, what is the problem

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Speaker 1: that everybody's got and can we find a better way. Now,

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Speaker 1: maybe you can argue they're trying to protect their power,

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Speaker 1: so sure the whole world works that way. It is

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Speaker 1: what it is is. I always say, yeah, But what

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Speaker 1: they're trying to do is, look, can we solve the

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Speaker 1: whole problem. That's where the b i S, the Bank

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Speaker 1: of International Settlements are looking at. It's to the World

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Speaker 1: Economic Forum. These are all these supernational governing bodies that

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Speaker 1: are basically saying they're prepared to reinvent themselves um to

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Speaker 1: affect massive change. Because if we do create change together,

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Speaker 1: then we can do it. But if we rely aren't

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Speaker 1: individual states to do it, they won't do it. And

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Speaker 1: so their idea, which I think is pretty groundbreaking, is

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Speaker 1: to go back to kind of some version of Keynes's

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Speaker 1: original idea of this bank accrep which is a global currency.

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Speaker 1: But Facebook Libra were the guys who changed all of

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Speaker 1: this because the bank corps before was thought of a

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Speaker 1: will have a basket of currencies and it will be

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Speaker 1: denominated in U S. Dollars. No, this idea is the

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Speaker 1: dollar is part of the basket. That's what Facebook Libra

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Speaker 1: did and all the central banks no, no, no no, no no,

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Speaker 1: because this is all powerful because so let's say you're

426
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 1: a gold exporter in South Africa and I'm a Brazilian

427
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 1: grain imports. All right, we get screwed by the currencies

428
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 1: going up and down, even though we're not necessarily trading

429
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: with the US. You might be trading with Russia and

430
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 1: I might be trading with China, but the US dollar

431
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 1: is what we're all holding too. But if you have

432
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 1: a global currency basket with the dollar is part of it.

433
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 1: The denominator is money supply, right, so it's really stable,

434
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: which we already have. I mean, the the I m

435
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 1: F already has the SDR, which is a basket of currency.

436
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 1: So it's just a digital SDR almost, it's sort of,

437
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: but I think it depends how the waiting has done,

438
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: how it works as could it be a digital SDR,

439
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: could it be a different variation of that. I don't

440
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 1: know whether the SDR has the dollar within the basket

441
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: or the dollar is the denominator. I believe it's the denominator,

442
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,199
Speaker 1: but I'm sure. So there's there's lots of things to

443
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 1: fear from this, as you've said, I mean, obviously there's

444
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 1: the there there's the programmable money piece, right like Hey,

445
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: if you don't spend your money this week, you lose it,

446
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 1: or you know, things like that, or or different interest

447
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: rates or things like that, which again is the opposite

448
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 1: of inequality, and it's it's it's scary surveillance, totalitarianism. But

449
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: also what scares me a little bit about this is

450
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: moving to that. I mean, then each country loses its

451
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: sovereignty in a sense, is that? I mean, right, they

452
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 1: lose control to control their own currencies, their own only

453
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 1: because we've all grown up in a world where currency

454
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: sovereignty is the key issue. Right in the past, it

455
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: wasn't because they were pegged to the to the dollar,

456
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 1: or the breton Wood system to the to the dollar

457
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: or before that to goals, right, so the breton Wood

458
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 1: system was pegging it to the dollar, which was picked

459
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: to gold. So it's not currency is not always the answer.

460
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 1: There's other ways of doing it. It's technology, it's competitiveness,

461
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: is productivity, it's labor costs, stuff like that. So we

462
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: only we just know this world that we've been grown

463
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 1: up in. So I'm not sure you give up sovereignty.

464
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 1: You just have to do things in different ways, and

465
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 1: that's okay. Yeah, I guess maybe you're not giving up sovereignty.

466
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 1: I mean, and to your point, right, for for hundreds

467
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: of years, the world was kind of working together on

468
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 1: a single unit of account based off of a gold coin,

469
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: and that led to massive prosperity because free trade could

470
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: work very easily. And it wasn't until we've kind of

471
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 1: got off of that where now everybody's competing against each

472
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 1: other and it's turned into a big name. But don't

473
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: forget with the gold standard too. We still had the

474
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: leverage cycle, you know, the credit cycle still happened. People

475
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: borrowed too much money. They all went past. We have

476
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,479
Speaker 1: massive deflation. So it didn't solve anything. It's not pan

477
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 1: of Sia, but it's different than this world we've got

478
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: now with with it's always your currency, because in the end,

479
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: you keep defining people's money. Right, Yeah, I guess I'm

480
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 1: looking more like the four eighteen hundred period that that

481
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: range right there. It seemed like we had a big

482
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: streak of prosperity when the whole world kind of had

483
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: that standard unit of account. I would just say it

484
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: was the benefits of British empod. But maybe that's me. Yeah,

485
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: there's there's I'm only wandering you out. I got you,

486
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: I got you. So another thing that that that seems

487
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 1: a little bit scary though, is when the central banks

488
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: can create their own digital currency, the CBDC, which of

489
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: course has all this programable stuff that that that's a

490
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,919
Speaker 1: whole rabbit hole that could be dug down. But it

491
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 1: almost seems like they have the ability now to just

492
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 1: send money out directly to the people, and potentially it

493
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: could be bypassing all the layers of governments and banks

494
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 1: and really turn it into that one world currency, one

495
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 1: world government that's really not even a government. Maybe it's

496
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 1: just the banker's control in the world. And the question is, well,

497
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that the central banks that get to

498
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 1: act independently, because when monetary and fiscal policy blend, it

499
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: becomes the government's problem, not the central bank. So I'm

500
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: not sure the central banks maintain their independence in this world.

501
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: The other thing is, and again we don't know what

502
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: the good parts and bad parts. There's going to be

503
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: lauren of unintended consequences, and it gets to be some

504
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: really good parts of this. One part is I don't

505
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: see why you need a banking sector. You can use

506
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 1: fintech solutions layer for all the bits and pieces that

507
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: we need for the access of the money and where

508
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: we store it and how we transfer it and all

509
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,719
Speaker 1: of that stuff. Some of that's good, right, it's going

510
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: to get rid of all this friction everything else. But

511
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: the other part is the government has direct control over

512
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 1: your wallet, which is a bad part, but it can

513
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: be used really well because when we've got an economic crisis,

514
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 1: they can give you money directly instantaneously, and they can say,

515
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: as you say, you need to spend this in the

516
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 1: next three months, so we massively stimulate the economy. In

517
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: the end, that's a net good thing. The bad thing

518
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: is they can control you and say, well, you've got

519
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 1: another speeding ticket up, taking the money straight out of

520
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: your wallet without you knowing about it. It's it's it's

521
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 1: it's a great leap forward and a terrifying leap into

522
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: the abyss as well. At the same time. Yeah, like

523
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 1: you said, everything has trade ups. Everything is everything's got

524
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,919
Speaker 1: trade us and pros and times, and in the end,

525
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: all of this CBDC stuff, you still fee money, so

526
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: it doesn't get rid of the core issue. Now, can

527
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 1: you can you do one of the things that I

528
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: left talks about was Okay, let's have these these coins

529
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 1: and then these digital coins and then let everybody do

530
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 1: a massive print at the same time to fiscally stimulate

531
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 1: the world at the same time. So like a big

532
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: new deal. So let's say everybody does GDP, everybody in

533
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: that basket. Then what happens if they said to be

534
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: in the basket you have to restrict money supply growth

535
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: to two sent That's kind of interesting, right, because then

536
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: it starts looking a bit more like gold or like bitcoin.

537
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: Obviously not the same, but governments will always cheat in

538
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: the end, but it might be a huge period of stability,

539
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: massive fiscal similars, and then limited money squad. So who

540
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 1: knows how this plays out. It's going to be fascinating.

541
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 1: It too such a massive moment in time. Now, um,

542
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: just real quick, you said it doesn't solve the problem.

543
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 1: So the problem in my opinion, from my viewpoint, is

544
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: that this always trying to create more money. So I'm

545
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: curious You've mentioned Kinsei and you've mentioned m m T.

546
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: I'm curious kind of your viewpoint on that Kinseian economics

547
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: where we can just print and we stimulate versus like

548
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: an Austrian model where really we have sound money. We

549
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 1: don't have this never you know supply that constantly expands.

550
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 1: Where do you see on those two levels. I'm an

551
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: Austrian by belief in the business cycle. I think we've

552
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: just got too far. We had those two that that supercycle,

553
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 1: and we can't pretend it's not there. You could be

554
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 1: an Austrian economists all you like right now, and you're

555
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: gonna blow up the world. You're going to drive the

556
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 1: biggest economic destruction of all recorded history. If you decide

557
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: to become an Austrian and say, fine, we'll just let

558
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 1: the business cycle do it. We can't. So it is

559
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: what it is right now. How do you deal with it?

560
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean there's a lot of people

561
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,479
Speaker 1: will point the fingers and blame everybody. The answer is

562
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: we don't know, and I don't the central banks don't know.

563
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: Everybody is trying to figure something out. But one thing

564
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: we have got, the most powerful thing, is bitcoin just exists.

565
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 1: We've got something to get us out of this that

566
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: we can side step whatever mess this becomes. It might

567
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: all work. Maybe they create another thirty or forty years

568
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: of prosperity. We don't know, but I'm really uneasy, as

569
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: is everybody else around the world in how this plays out.

570
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 1: But bitcoin is that gift, right, It's the gift, the

571
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: life raft that can save us from all of this

572
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: because we can side step it. Yeah, so that's how

573
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: I want to jump into that. You you you actually made

574
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: a video or etie about bitcoin being a life raft. Um.

575
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: So we have this ship if you want to call

576
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 1: it that, that's heading into turbulent water and we don't

577
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: know which way it's going to go, and we can

578
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: decide to stay on for the ride, or we could

579
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 1: decide to hop on a life raft and just kind

580
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: of sidestep the whole thing. Is that kind of how

581
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 1: you see it? Yes, I do. Because of the nature

582
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: of the world is going digital. So bitcoin is the

583
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: native digital thing that drove all without change in the

584
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: first place. You know, it's almost perfect. And its construction

585
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: as a store of value, whether it is as a

586
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: means of payment, we can argue about that all day,

587
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: but as a store of value as collateral, it's amazing

588
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: because the world's collateral system right now is US treasuries.

589
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 1: Probably is the U S can issue as many of

590
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: them as they want, lower and lower rates the more

591
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: the issue, the more the rates go down. Really, and

592
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 1: the currency itself, once you issue more and more of

593
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: that devalues every time. So it's actually not a great

594
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: reserve asset. And you know what happens in times of

595
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: economic stress is it should be harder. You should be

596
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: at end out your collateral for more money. But look

597
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: at treasury yields that you're lower in the recessions. You

598
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: get less money for lendering out your treasuries in a recession,

599
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: so it kind of doesn't function well. Bitcoin well, that's

600
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: a whole different game because it's a it's a private market,

601
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: not driven by a central bank, and it has the

602
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 1: limited supply feature, which means that in a recession, when

603
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: money scarce, if I want to borrow your bitcoin, you're

604
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: gonna charge me for it. Now the monetary mechanism works. Okay,

605
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: that's great. Bitcoin doesn't have a yield curve yet, so

606
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: we're nowhere near there. You know, there needs to be

607
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: a time value of money within bitcoin, but it's coming.

608
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 1: It's this and therefore as a pristine collateral where it

609
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: can't be printed more of it can't be messing around with.

610
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: That is a very very valuable asset for anybody and

611
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: to sidestep that system in something as perfect as this,

612
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: it's amazing. Right now, gold has been that you know,

613
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: five thousand years of history as as as gold you know,

614
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: um whereas money, but the gold market has been completely captured.

615
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: And I mean the price is not set on the market,

616
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: it's set in London, So gold doesn't really offer that

617
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: like like bitcoin does. Do you see future when more

618
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: and more institutions come into bitcoin where maybe that starts

619
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: to change. I mean they're gonna want to try to

620
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: monetize it, right or or financialize that. I should say, yeah,

621
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. And that's really sad is humans are humans.

622
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: They create credit, They always did, and they will create

623
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 1: credit cycle all over again on top of bitcoin. Because

624
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: when you've got a great collateral asset like that, what's

625
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: the best thing to do? Use it for lending? And

626
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 1: you know, to be a money lender is the oldest

627
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: or second oldest professional on earth. And that's not going

628
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: to go away because we're humans. And I think there

629
00:31:55,440 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: is a slight misbelief in the bitcoin community that suddenly

630
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 1: we won't build a fractional system all over again. We've

631
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 1: always done it. We did with gold, We've done it

632
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: with Cowrie Shells, We've we've done it with fit we

633
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 1: will do it all over again. Well, there's a nice

634
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: period of perspiracy when you go from zero leverage to

635
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 1: a lot of leverage all over again. Yeah. Well, you know,

636
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: I think the the the fractional reserve lending on top

637
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: of bitcoin isn't necessarily a bad thing. I mean, obviously

638
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: we can see what happened in the free banking world

639
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: before the central bank came around and banks were going

640
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 1: boom and bust and people were losing their money. But

641
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 1: that's a risk that those people were willing to take. Hey,

642
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: I'm willing to potentially lose this to make that potential yield,

643
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: And and that's a decision that each person can individually make,

644
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: and maybe I could be okay with that versus a

645
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 1: centrally controlled model where we just inflated away forever, which

646
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: kind of like so, you know, I mean, the free

647
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: banking was kind of like a free model where people

648
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: could do that, versus what we had today being a

649
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 1: controlled model. Don't you see that being different? Yes, I do.

650
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if then that results any different, because

651
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: it depends how many people lose money from doing you know,

652
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: we're borrowing money from the wrong lenders or whatever, lending

653
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: money to the wrong borrowers who knows. Right, we're seeing

654
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: that experiment playing out in Defy right now in real time,

655
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 1: and that these things are blowing up media or even

656
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: with black Fire and Celsius and those companies as well.

657
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: And look, I'm super fascinated by this. Um. You know,

658
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: can private sector can the private sector send m set

659
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: interest rates in a world where central bank still exists?

660
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 1: I don't know, because the institutional money arbitrages it because

661
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: they can borrow from the central back, they can borrow

662
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: from the banking system. But you know, one and and

663
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 1: flood the defied market at six and before you know, overtime,

664
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: all the spreads flattened down. So it's a shame. So

665
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 1: they're not not connected because the money will always flow um.

666
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: And so we'd need to see some whole soul change

667
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: in that before we could really see true independent markets. Yeah,

668
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: so I'm curious at your viewpoint on bitcoin because you

669
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: say it's the life raft. So it's a way for

670
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: us to escape all this whatever we're going into, this totalitarianism,

671
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: this control whatever, it is manipulation and it's a way

672
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: for us to side sidestep it. So I mean there's

673
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 1: there's some ideology that you see with it, I think,

674
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: But at the same time, you take this this role

675
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: of this macro trader where hey, I'm gonna trade it

676
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: until the yield curve is over right. Um. So I'm

677
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 1: curious what's your view on bitcoin? I mean, like you

678
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 1: mentioned kind of the bitcoin community, which I kind of

679
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: fall into, which I see it as like our life

680
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: raft as well, but I don't want to see it

681
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 1: get corrupted. Do you see it as just another asset

682
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: to trade? Um in the meantime and in a way

683
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 1: to side step this. In the show again, I always

684
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: got back to my point. Whatever we wanted to be

685
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 1: is irrelevant. It is a network that is life, living,

686
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: breathing and uncontrollable. So it is what it is. And

687
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: some people wanted to be one thing, some people wanted

688
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 1: to be another. Where it ends up is I don't know. Um. Now,

689
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: I think it plays a dominant role in the global

690
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: financial system. What does that mean? I'm not yet sure

691
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 1: what does that future financial system look like? I don't know.

692
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: But as a macro guy, my job is not to

693
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: say I want it to be this, Um it is, okay,

694
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: what is the possibility that it's going to be this?

695
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 1: You know it does? Does bitcoin maximism have a reasonable probability? Yes?

696
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 1: Over what time Arizon don't really know, but it kind

697
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: of feels like twenty years. Um, So you know what

698
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: is the what points in the Metcalf's law produces the

699
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 1: best returns Because in the end, I don't really care

700
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: about the philosophy of what the future financial system looks

701
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,760
Speaker 1: like as long as I'm all right, well, my family

702
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 1: is all right, or my friends are all right, or

703
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: the people I can help, you know, And that's human need, right.

704
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: Human need is for your own personal security and security

705
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: of your friends and family around you. So that's how

706
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: I look at it. So I'm kind of agnostick as

707
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: long as I can do that. Now, I wants a new,

708
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 1: different financial future. Um, but I'm not betting my money

709
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: because I want it. I'm betting my money because I

710
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: think this is the most likely helpcome right right right.

711
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 1: So um, I'm curious though from your viewpoint in this,

712
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 1: because you're somebody who's kind of an international man, right,

713
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: you're your British I think you lived in Spain for

714
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 1: a long time. Now you're in Caymans or wherever you're at,

715
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 1: So you're kind of doing this geo arbitrage if you will. Right,

716
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: you're going to where you're treated best, I guess, or

717
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 1: your money is treated best. So I'm curious, you know,

718
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: kind of my viewpoint in the world seems like, you know,

719
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: we're going to more globalism obviously, I mean that's obvious, right,

720
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're pushing that the World Economic Form

721
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: i m F, etcetera. And it almost seems like it's

722
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: becoming more totalitarianism. And we're gonna have technology that will

723
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 1: continue to morph with economic as you're talking about CBDCs

724
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 1: and more control, more surveillance, etcetera. And as you said,

725
00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: governments are always going to try to protect what they have,

726
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: and that's power. At the end of the day, it's power.

727
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: And so what breaks that grip of us becoming like

728
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: total slaves. And from my viewpoint, it seems like the

729
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: only thing that maybe could ever break that grip would

730
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: be competition. If they came and say hey, you can

731
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,879
Speaker 1: come live here and we're open and free, and then

732
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: rich people want to go there. But in the past.

733
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 1: I have friends growing up who who came from Iran

734
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 1: or Iraq or even from South Africa left that oppressive regimes,

735
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 1: but they came penniless. They couldn't get any money out

736
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 1: of the country. And Bitcoin changes that because now I

737
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 1: could go to that free country and take my wealth

738
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 1: with me. But that system has always existed, right, because

739
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: you've got it in the US in different states. So

740
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 1: you're in California and you're like, God, I wish I

741
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 1: was living in Florida right now. Serfs was good, but

742
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: the but the tax is lower, right, um, And we

743
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: we have it in Europe. You can move to Ailand,

744
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: which has a lower tax rate in Spain, for example,

745
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: lower than France, and that has always been available, so

746
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any great change. And then this

747
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 1: whole sovereign man thing. You've always been able to take

748
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: a euro across all of those countries. Now to leave

749
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 1: Europe and bring it into Cayman, you have to produce

750
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: your k y C and all of that, and you

751
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 1: have to apply for citizenship or or a work permit.

752
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: It's not it's never been that difficult. Well, it has

753
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 1: been depending on what country are coming from. If you

754
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 1: now if you're trying to flee country. So yesterday I

755
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: was walking the dogs on the beach and there's a

756
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: bunch of Cuban refugees growing up in a boat. And

757
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: we see this periodically. Every few months there's a boat

758
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: arrived with twenty Cuban refugees and it's a basic raft, right.

759
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: The economic poverty and the the regime causes people to

760
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 1: do extreme things to leave, and that drives it home

761
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 1: to you your exact point, they leave handing less, they

762
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: start again. Uh. And yes, bitcoin does help this, and

763
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 1: gold traditionally help that, but it's it's difficult because it

764
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: wasn't transportable so easily. Yes, you can deposit in your

765
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: Singapore bolts and then you know access to it. It

766
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: does work, it's a bit clunky. Bitcoin's grateful all of this.

767
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: I mean, it does, it does help. But in the end,

768
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: most people don't get driven by taxes, to get driven

769
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 1: by quality of life. And my choices have always been

770
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 1: driven by quality of life, of which taxes is only

771
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,439
Speaker 1: a small equation. Well, my mine is quality of life

772
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 1: as well. And you before we started recording, you talked

773
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: about how California is starting to lockdown again. And for

774
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 1: me and my family, I don't want to live in

775
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 1: a lockdown country. I have money, why wouldn't I go

776
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 1: somewhere that isn't lockdown, And of course I would want

777
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: to do that. So it is driven by quality of life.

778
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: Taxes is I think part of that equation of qual exactly.

779
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: But it's the quality of life. And if you've gotten

780
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: abuse so more to the point, if you've got abusive

781
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: authoritarian regime. So if China becomes much more restrictive on

782
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,800
Speaker 1: its freedoms by using all this kind of very smart

783
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 1: behavioral economic techniques on its people, well you're gonna get

784
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 1: a lot of Chinese leaving. And we've already seen massive

785
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 1: capital fiers. Bitcoin has been one of the beneficiaries of

786
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 1: those cover flows, and all these stable coins are really

787
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 1: basically a lot of it's coming out of China. Um,

788
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 1: we're saying. If you look at the largest countries by

789
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: usage of per capital use of bitcoin, Venezuela, Columbia, South Africa, China. Yeah,

790
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: all for the same reasons. Right, it's capital flights, um,

791
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: And it's great for that, it's great, but it's hard.

792
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: It's actually hard for people to leave. It's really hard

793
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 1: for Venezuelan. To leave Venezuela and get a country to

794
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 1: accept them, that's really hard. You have to have money,

795
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 1: so it kind of favors the elite. Still, it doesn't

796
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: actually favor the individual, right, But again, having friends that

797
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: have escaped escaped oppressive regimes that were somewhat well off

798
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 1: in those countries, they had to company less and so

799
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: as your point, you can only really do that if

800
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 1: you have some means. But if your country doesn't let

801
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 1: you get any of your wealth out of that country,

802
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: then you're like, I could go to St. St. Bart's,

803
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: but like I need a hunter grand to get there

804
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: on a private jet, and my country doesn't let me

805
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 1: get my money out, and now if I can take

806
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,479
Speaker 1: my money, it just it just changes things. Yeah, it does,

807
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: it does, but you know that's what it probably does

808
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: is bring it down a bit. So the very elites.

809
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 1: Right when Argentina had the massive default in the Coralito

810
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: where they stole the money from everybody's bank account, the

811
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: rich were flying out in private jects with stacks of

812
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 1: gold and money and everything else. They already had it.

813
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: But they've already gotten it, right, But it's the next

814
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: tier down that got completely screwed. They lost all of

815
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: their wealth. Everybody in Venezuela whose middle class or wealthy

816
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,919
Speaker 1: middle class got completely destroyed. The poor in the end,

817
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: they've been poor either way, right, So yes, they further

818
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 1: abuses of the system, but it was that middle class

819
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: and wealthy middle class got gutted in many of those countries.

820
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: And South Africa they're still bleeding I mean out the door.

821
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: I mean, yes, there's still opportunity in South Africa. It's hard. Yeah. Yeah.

822
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 1: One of my one of my best friends is is

823
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 1: from South Africa, and so they're a family left and

824
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: so I'm familiar with that story. But I guess so

825
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 1: maybe then from that viewpoint, bitcoin is that life raft

826
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 1: to to um sidestep the system, but are so maybe

827
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 1: a way to our So maybe put a motor on

828
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 1: that boat and then go somewhere else. Here's a conversation

829
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: I had. I had a conversation with a big family

830
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 1: office from Latin America, and they were bitcoin miners in Venezuela.

831
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 1: They're not Enezuelans because it was free electricity two fourteen

832
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,320
Speaker 1: also doing this. They were making a fortune in this

833
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: and he's now sending up a whole family office network

834
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 1: for Latin Americans for the wealthy families, and I'm like,

835
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 1: and it's all around bitcoin, and I'm like, okay, what

836
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 1: is the thesis here? Said? These guys are all dollar

837
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: and gold people because they have to be, and what

838
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: now they've seen Bitcoin. They're like, oh, finally, I'm not

839
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 1: holding to the US dollar, which is the US banking

840
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: system and all of the issues of that, and I'm

841
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 1: not holding to clunky gold that have to fly fly

842
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: around in a private jet if I'm forced to leave

843
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 1: my country because I've gotten the wrong side of the politics.

844
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: And they all get it in seconds. It's like it's

845
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 1: very easy for me as a brit Or, you as

846
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 1: an American to not really worry about it because it

847
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: hasn't really affected us ever, right, But for Latin American

848
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: this is part of their life and they've seen this

849
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 1: cycle probably three times. If you're forty years old, you've

850
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 1: seen it three times already in your life. So you

851
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 1: know that the use cases are alive and well and

852
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: it makes a huge difference and that is only going

853
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: to get bigger. Yeah. Cool, So we're we're running out

854
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 1: of time here. Um, some great conversations. I appreciate you

855
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: taking the time to do that. But UM, as as

856
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 1: a macro trader, as a macro investor, obviously you've been uh,

857
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: you know, you're you've been pretty bullish on bitcoin, So

858
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: I just like to talk about that for a second. Um,

859
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 1: we're starting to see bitcoin go up. I mean, we're

860
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: a big, big right now, a great year. What do

861
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 1: you see different from seventeen? It really is the story

862
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 1: of institutional adoption. I mean, it's not driven by the

863
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: little guy, although the guys are still in it, you know,

864
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,280
Speaker 1: I average guy, Which is what I so love about

865
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: this space is people in actual chance. Right people are

866
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,240
Speaker 1: having a chance to make some money, which is amazing

867
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 1: and empowering, and that's why I'm really attracted to the space.

868
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 1: But the thing that's going to change every of these

869
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 1: lives is when the wall of money from the institutions

870
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 1: comes into it. Um, And that's happening. It's all I

871
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: hear every day from all of the people you're running

872
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 1: the big exchanges and all the guys I know operating

873
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 1: this space. That whole kind of on ramping is going

874
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: on every day. Now. That creates its own dynamic, which

875
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: is called reflexivity, because the more something happens the more

876
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 1: self reinforces. So the more the market cap of bitcoin

877
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: goes up and the more it outperforms other asset classes.

878
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: I've been talking about this bitcoin kind of eating the

879
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: world is. The more it does that, the more it

880
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 1: forces institutions to look at it. The more the market

881
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: cap goes up, the more they have to get involved.

882
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 1: The more they're involved, the market cap goes up, the

883
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 1: more Bitcoin out performs, the more they have to get involved.

884
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 1: So it creates its massive kind of chasing a der

885
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: tail to get into the space. So that's what I think.

886
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 1: Lines ahead, and so you mentioned before I asked you

887
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 1: kind of what you see like long term? What do

888
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: you you know? How far out do you look? So

889
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,959
Speaker 1: maybe you know twelve eighteen minds or one or three years?

890
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: What do you see? What do what? What are you

891
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,479
Speaker 1: kind of seeing over that? It's hard not to be

892
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 1: it's hard not to be biased because we all look

893
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 1: at Plan B stock to flow model and we've all

894
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: seen the previous cycles, so we kind of we're all

895
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: kind of anchoring somewhere on that, so we know we

896
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: can't pretend we're not. I use a bunch of technical analysis,

897
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 1: a bunch of other ways of looking at it, and

898
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 1: I always came up with a you know, with gold

899
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: here around these kind of price levels, if we look

900
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:36,879
Speaker 1: at the same sort of thing, I kind of get

901
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 1: bitcoin worth a million bucks um. Now over what time

902
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 1: horizon is that? You know, I give it two of

903
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,320
Speaker 1: the another harving cycle. Now, maybe the harving cycle doesn't

904
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 1: work next time around, because maybe it's a flat harving

905
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: cycle because of the institutional adoption. I don't know. I

906
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: think the space will change. I think also people don't

907
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: understand how institutions act when they're in the space, They're

908
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: going to act very differently. So I don't know, but

909
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: I think a million bucks And I think, you know,

910
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 1: this year, you know, we've we've gone up a huge

911
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 1: amount or something. Dan Tapierrison a tweet out, we've been

912
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 1: up from the low this year. Could you do another

913
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: next year? Yeah, easily. I mean we barely noticed it.

914
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: This year. Didn't feel like a runaway bullmarket year. Yeah.

915
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,280
Speaker 1: I just felt like it was just getting started. So,

916
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 1: you know, I still maintain I think it goes further

917
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 1: than most people expect in the next eighteen months because

918
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 1: of this institutional reflexive loop. So I think I think

919
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 1: if there's a surprise to be had. I know there's

920
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 1: a bunch of people saying work, maybe just got a

921
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: fifty grand, fifty doesn't go much higher. There's a bunch

922
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 1: of people in that kind of hundred to two fifty level.

923
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 1: I would say I'm more skewed towards the kind of

924
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 1: two fifty level with an upside. I think everyone's wildly

925
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 1: under price the upside for this cycle. Yeah, well that's

926
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 1: good to hear. I I remember back in that bull

927
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 1: running and they were starting to get all these crazy

928
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 1: ballers projections and praised mccaffee staid he was going to

929
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 1: eat his stuff if you know. So I tried to

930
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 1: kind of temper that because I know when we get

931
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: into these kind of ball markets it starts to kind

932
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,439
Speaker 1: of pushing that. But but but it's but it's great

933
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 1: to hear. I like it. Well, I know, and I didn't.

934
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 1: I get it from a number of different ways and

935
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 1: whether it stopped to flow. And I built a very

936
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 1: basic stop to flow medal back in two thousand thirteen

937
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 1: that I came up with offer the same output that

938
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,879
Speaker 1: was with gold at gold was about then, I got

939
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:32,240
Speaker 1: you know, comparing like for like at about a million.

940
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 1: If we look at the market cap versus gold, we

941
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 1: get to say similar kind of things, not the tennant,

942
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: so that twenty x from here or so. If we

943
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: look at a log chart technical analysis, get to the

944
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 1: same kind of numbers. If you mean, when so many

945
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: things give you roughly a price project, when you look

946
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: at met costs law to price it as well gives

947
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 1: you roughly the same numbers. It's like, okay, somewhere around

948
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 1: here unless any wrong, and you look at the markets,

949
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: it's it's taking over which you mentioned gold obviously ten

950
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: eleven trillion dollars, but there's thirty to forty trillion, and

951
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 1: offshore bank accounts and like it's an offshore bank account, right,

952
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: so it's all these things. So, um yeah, great stuff.

953
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:12,399
Speaker 1: I appreciate all that. We're gonna go ahead and wrap

954
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: it up right here. I thank you so much for

955
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: your time. Now. I know you're super active on Twitter, um,

956
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 1: so I'll make sure to link that for everybody down below.

957
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:21,800
Speaker 1: I don't know how you find time to be on

958
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: Twitter so much, because it it recks my day. It's

959
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 1: wrecking mine. The other place to find me so at

960
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 1: Raoul Jim on Twitter. Also, if you like crypto stuff,

961
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 1: um and um. We build a whole channel in it,

962
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 1: so Real Vision Crypto dot com. It's free and anybody

963
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: can find a ton of content around all of this,

964
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 1: whether it's the macro, around the space, through all the

965
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: bitcoin guys, and through to some of the other parts

966
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 1: in the space too. Yep, and I'll make sure to

967
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 1: link that down below for everybody as well. And uh again, Ral,

968
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us today. I appreciate it.

969
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:54,879
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed it. Thanks so much.