1 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: Welcome on Trillians. I'm Joel Weber and I'm Eric bel Chernis. Eric. 2 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: We're halfway through the year and it's time for a 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: halftime report, the first you know what we're doing today? Okay, 4 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: half the report podcasts, and we brought some people to join. 5 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: One of them is a regular, Todd Todd rosen Bluth, 6 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: who if people anyone listening who's in THETF industry knows 7 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: this guy very well and knows some of his great 8 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: work both for cf R A and on Twitter, which 9 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: he uh coming like a recurring character. I like it, right, 10 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: and and here he is again. Yeah, he's kind of 11 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: like Tom Hanks on Family Ties. You know how he 12 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: came in once in a while, is the Yes, that 13 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: is exactly pretty good reference. Right. Yeah. We also have 14 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: another character who is also a frequent guest, Sarah Ponzac 15 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg News also has a podcast of our own, 16 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: now hosting a podcast called Welcomes Up Channel's Plague. So 17 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: what we want to do is talk to Todd and 18 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: Sarah about a couple observations from the first half of 19 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: the year, and maybe even a couple I don't know 20 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: of corystal Ball style predictions exactly this weekend Brilliance twenty 21 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 1: nineteen halftime report. Todd Sarah, thanks for joining on Trilliance 22 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: observation number one big observation. Who wants it? Yeah, I'll start. 23 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: So this has really been the year of fixed in 24 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: comm ETFs. More than half of the net inflows have 25 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: gone into fixed in comm ETFs this year. It's about 26 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,680 Speaker 1: of the overall et F pie. But what's quite compelling 27 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: to us at t F A is a couple of things. 28 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: One is the range of products that have gained interest. 29 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: You've got high yield, you've got long term treasuries like 30 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: t L T and I e F. You've got the 31 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: ultra short products that were popular in two thousand and 32 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: eighteen have stayed popular bill SHV along with the active 33 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: ones like mint and jps T. And then the second 34 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: part of this is again the range of products. So 35 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 1: using Bloomberg datly earlier this week, I saw, you know, 36 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: more than a hundred fixed in com ETFs have gathered 37 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: over a hundred million dollars of net new money this year. 38 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: So it's not just the big boys that are gathering assets, 39 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: but we're seeing a range of products, both large and small, 40 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: that are popular and that's a great sign for ETF adoption. 41 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 1: Why what's happening, Well, you've got a couple of things happening. 42 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: Many investors are expecting the Fed to not only have paused, 43 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: but actually cut interest rates. We had see afraid don't 44 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: think that's going to be happening as aggressively as the 45 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 1: broader market does. But you have investors that are willing 46 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: to take on risk in order to get the yield. 47 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: We've seen credit the fault risk be relatively low. And 48 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: then you've got folks that don't believe that aren't willing 49 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: to hide under the mattresses, uh the way they did 50 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eighteen. And so both both camps 51 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: are winning out again, a sign that e t F 52 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 1: s are held, not often just traded. I'll jump in 53 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: on this because the love for fixed income was part 54 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: of one of my observations. To put a number on it. 55 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: We've seen about seventy billion dollars go into fixed income 56 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: so far in the first half, and that's the most 57 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: for any half ever, So that gives you an idea. 58 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: And now the amount of assets under management across fixed 59 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: income products is now at an all time high, so 60 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: around seven hundred and fifty billion dollars, and as Todd said, 61 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: it's unbelievable. You see love for short term products, you 62 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: see love for long term products, even in the belly 63 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: of the curve. And it just goes to show that 64 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: at this point in time, yes, a lot of people 65 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: do believe that interest rates will be lower for longer, 66 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: but it's still not set in stone. And I'll jump 67 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: in here too with a couple of comments. Fixed income 68 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: relative to itself, these et f s are definitely it's 69 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: a banner year their own record to have their most 70 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: flows ever. But when you use it relative to US equities, 71 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: I find sometimes that numbers are touch distorted because of 72 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: the January outflows that were a result of tax loss harvesting. 73 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: If you take those away, it's not quite as drum attic. 74 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: But that said, it is dramatic and it's worth pointing out. 75 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: What's also interesting is active fixed income mutual funds have 76 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: also been hauling in the cash. I think they could 77 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: be right around the seventy billion mark based on the 78 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: numbers we have so far extrapolating into June, so that 79 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: would be a banner year all around for fixed income 80 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: and the idea that it's across the curve is also interesting. 81 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: Normally it was all ultra short and short. Some years 82 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: it's all long term, some years it's high yield. It 83 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 1: this the diversity is interesting. Geo VT is a ticker 84 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 1: that to me represents this year. Geo VT is the 85 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: I Shares Treasury et F which invest in all treasuries 86 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 1: across the curve right from A to Z, and that 87 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 1: is taking in four point six billion. It's uh. I 88 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: think it's just squeeze into the top ten of inflows 89 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 1: and it's not that big, so that one's punching way 90 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: above its weight. And to me, that's representative of this year. 91 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: If I had to pick a sort of poster child 92 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: for this year and flows, it would probably geo VT. 93 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: And what do we think the second half of the 94 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: gear is gonna look like for fixed income? We're getting 95 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: to the predictions already on it. So we think that 96 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: we think money is going to continue to pour in, 97 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: so even if the FED does not, So we don't 98 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: believe that the FED is going to be conversation ultimately 99 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 1: is about the FED. Well, it's it's about the FED, 100 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: and it's also about investors using e t f s uh, 101 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 1: and fixing comm ETFs from more of a strategic perspective. 102 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: So you do see a tactical shift based on what's 103 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: going to happen with the FED and the dot plots 104 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,160 Speaker 1: and things to that effect. But you are seeing some 105 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 1: of these low cost core products continue to gather assets 106 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: regardless of what's going on with the yield curve. And 107 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: so we think we're seeing products like A G, G 108 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 1: and B and D from ice Shares in Vanguard respectively, 109 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: among other products that are just increasingly being used as 110 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: a replacement in the institutional marketplace and being being a 111 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: replacement for some mutual funds or for individual bonds as well. 112 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 1: I mean, and all of these are products that have 113 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 1: been around for a little bit in fixed income space. 114 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: Is there any is there any new products that have 115 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: been kind of a shocker or a surprise for you? Well, 116 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: I mean when the fixed incomes. Yeah, Well, we're seeing 117 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: more and more of these ultra short active products that 118 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: gained some traction in two thousand eighteen that likely we're 119 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 1: gonna be just parking money and I think we expected 120 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: that and others did as well, and we've seen investors 121 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: continue to move into those products. So Wisdom Tree has 122 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: a floating rate UH treasury oriented product that that skyrocketed 123 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eighteen. Us f R has really 124 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: somebody say floating rate. Yeah, but you know what, it's 125 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: continued to pour in money. And we've seen JPST from 126 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 1: JP Morgan other products. These are relatively new products, these 127 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: are not three years old, and yet they're gathering significant assets. 128 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: And the fact of the matter is, yes, a lot 129 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: of this has to do with where interest rates are going, 130 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: but it also has to do with where we are 131 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: in the economic cycle and where we are in the 132 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: market cycle, because as Todd mentioned, people also use these strategically. 133 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: So people now, if they truly believe that we are 134 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 1: towards the end of the economic cycle, which pretty much 135 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: is consensus at this point in time, you could say, 136 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: although there's people who don't believe in the economic cycle either, 137 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: I think it will go on forever. This this time 138 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: is different. This time is different, but still people are 139 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: going to these products to use as a hedge. So yes, 140 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:23,679 Speaker 1: positioning regarding interest rates, but also just a strategic hedge. 141 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: And if the FED is accommodative as they have been, 142 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: it's gonna be good for all all of this. But 143 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: if they do get hawkish suddenly and people start freaking out, 144 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: it's going to as as everybody said, you will see 145 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: flows two different products, but it probably will take down 146 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: the overall number in my opinion. So the seventy billion 147 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: we saw to me could double to one forty if 148 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: the Feds, you know, relaxed accommodative. If the Fed turns 149 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: hawk ish, I could see that struggling, maybe ending up 150 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: ending up the year a hundred as people as the 151 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,239 Speaker 1: outflows from t LT and those guys maybe get offset 152 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: by the inflows to the short duration stuff. All right, 153 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: who's another big observation I can come in. It kind 154 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: of ties in with the whole fixed income bent because 155 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: even if you look at equity flows so far this year, 156 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: where we have seen the focus is unbelievably defensive if 157 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: you look on a sector level, and then also if 158 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: you look at factors as well. So to give you 159 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: an idea, the top sectors flow wise so far this 160 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: year our real estate, communications, utilities, and consumer stables. Now communications, 161 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: yes it holds some of those bang names, but also 162 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: those dividend yielding telecom names as well. Every other sector 163 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: has seen outflows. So it's pretty amazing that there is 164 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 1: just a unison want for defense. And then on the 165 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 1: smart beta side, we have just seen massive flows into 166 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: low volatility funds. It's like the first half is the 167 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: first half year of the low volatility funds because so 168 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: far they've taken in more than eleven billion dollars. It's 169 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 1: the most for any half going back to I believe. 170 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,439 Speaker 1: So it just shows you that on the equity side 171 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: where we are seeing flows is the defensive side. And 172 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 1: to I'm in on that. Two things on that just 173 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: to first of all, low volatility ETFs are the most 174 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: sellable thing ever created. What person who's like sixty doesn't 175 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: want like the market with like a smoother ride. It's 176 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: like you could sell the correct Yeah, it's like diet coke, right, 177 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: It's like zero calorie. It's such a sellable thing. So 178 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: there's an evergreen nature to low vall sweeping the world. 179 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: The other thing was on those sectors though, I will 180 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: say that the real estate to me is also maybe 181 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,719 Speaker 1: FED related as well. And yeah, so you get this 182 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: because at the beginning of the year, when the FED 183 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: got dovish around January fourth ish, right at the beginning, 184 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 1: we saw this thirst for yield trade comeback, whether that 185 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: be those sectors, the fixed income ETFs UH, junk bond ETFs, 186 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: inflows UH, and that was kind of dying. We actually 187 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: wrote a note in late about how the thirst for 188 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: yield trade was possibly over um and then boom, it 189 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: came right back. Even if you look in smart beta, 190 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: so low ball is your number one, but below that 191 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: is multi factor, so diversification at its best. And then 192 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 1: it's dividend yields. So these dividend e t f s. 193 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: And that's just another case to be made that when 194 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: you have really low interest rates, you have a ten 195 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: year two percent or below, people want yield and if 196 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: you can go to the equity market, still take a 197 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 1: little bit of risk, but be guaranteed a payout, that's 198 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: clearly attractive at this point in time. What I think 199 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: is also interesting is you cited this is strong since 200 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen. What that means also is two thousand 201 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: sixteen was a great year for the first half for 202 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 1: low volatility ETFs. But what was happening in two thousand 203 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: the first half two thousand and sixteen is the broader 204 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 1: market and the financial press outside of Bloomberg was freaking 205 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: out that there was too much money going into low 206 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: folatility ets they were actually driving the overall market, which 207 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: is of course absurd given how small these e t 208 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 1: F products are. Three fast forward three years, we're seeing 209 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: the money going into it, and people are now applauding 210 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: e t F investors for taking more of a lower 211 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 1: risk approach, even though we're up seventeen percent in the 212 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,079 Speaker 1: broader market. That's a sign of some maturity that's out there. 213 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: And I think it's also just a sign that investors 214 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 1: are willing to wanting to have their cake and needed too. 215 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: So you still want to be part of the marketplace 216 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 1: and be up, but be down less. And and these 217 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: products held up quite well in May, you know, when 218 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: the market became much more volatile. I will point out 219 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: though that one of the most popular low volatility funds 220 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: us m V. Eric and I were talking about this 221 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: the other day because actually outperformed the SMP this year. 222 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: So when you think of low vall, you think of safety. 223 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: You're tracking the market, but maybe you get a little 224 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,319 Speaker 1: bit less of a return. This year, you're actually getting 225 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: more than the SPRED So it's pretty amazing. Yeah, I mean, 226 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:38,599 Speaker 1: that's got a heavy weighting still relatively high weighting, and 227 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 1: technology for a defensive portfolio because it reduces the risk 228 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: within each of those sectors. So you do have exposure 229 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: to some of the growthier sectors, just in a more 230 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: defensive way, so companies like MasterCard instead of Apple, for example, 231 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: within technology. And but just to go back to the 232 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: craze of where low Ball took in like forty billion 233 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,719 Speaker 1: or something. Um, don't quote me on that. It's it 234 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: was a lot, uh, you know, relative to its size 235 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: that year, they were outperformed by eight nine. This year 236 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: it's two. So it's interesting that they've taken in so 237 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: much money despite not not crushing it per se. So 238 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: to me, this is more about the psychology of hey, 239 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 1: we're late in the market. How long can the FED 240 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: keep the party going. It's like the party feels like 241 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 1: it's four in the morning now, and I know the 242 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: FED just brought some new beer, but it's like, dude, 243 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: I gotta get some sleep. This thing is gonna this 244 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: thing is gonna bust up soon. So I think there's 245 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: a general defensiveness despite the returns to talk about your 246 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: rave days, is that what you're trying to say, The 247 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: late nineties. Oh yeah, So this defensive posturing, though, how 248 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 1: much your investors missing out on? What they what we've 249 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 1: seen so far this year, So it's pretty amazing because 250 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 1: you look at the SMP five and the SMP is 251 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: up sevent or so we just recently hit new highs. However, 252 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:54,839 Speaker 1: much of that has been driven at least in the 253 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: back half of the half, So I guess the second 254 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: quarter of the year you would say, has been driven 255 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: by gines and defensive sectors. So by positioning in these areas, 256 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 1: they're actually don't seem to be missing out on all 257 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 1: that much. Because if you look at since May, and 258 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: May was when everything related to trade started to fall 259 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: apart a bit, we saw a little bit of a 260 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 1: pullback since then, where the outperformance really has been is 261 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: in utilities, is in real state, is actually in consumer staples. 262 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: So by positioning in these places that you would think 263 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: maybe you're not going to get that much of a 264 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: return on the upside, but you get protection on the downside, 265 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: we're actually seeing participation in the upside as well. Yeah, 266 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: and with utilities and real estate in particular, I will 267 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,119 Speaker 1: leave consumer stables to the side for this. They are defensive, 268 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: They offer the yield, but these are also US centric 269 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: place so we've had the trade fears that have been 270 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: going on pretty much all of the first half of 271 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: the year. The easiest way to hide from that is 272 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: just to stay as local as possible, and you're local 273 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: utility or your assignment property. You're not getting the same 274 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 1: international exposure that you would within technology, which was has 275 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: been a strong performer, but oviously has been much more 276 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: volatile in the last couple of months. So which sectors 277 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: have been the biggest losers from an outflow protective well, 278 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 1: from an outflow perspective, the worst our financials, energy and materials. 279 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: So that is just a clear cyclical play. I mean, 280 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: you want to look at the areas that are tied 281 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: in with the economy vs. Are them, and it shows 282 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: you that E t F investors are a little bit 283 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: worried at the moment. They don't want to be anywhere 284 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: near these three because we've seen some pretty sizable outflows 285 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: in those areas as well. Okay, Eric, do you have 286 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: an observation from the first half. I do, uh, and 287 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: I'll go a different track. We just did flows. I 288 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 1: think we covered a lot. Let's go to launches we'd 289 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: like to see what's launching. It gives us a flavor 290 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: of what's going on in the ETS space. There was 291 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: more launches than I thought, hundred and twenty nine this year. 292 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 1: That puts us on track for what to six the 293 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: ish that would about about tie the record for annual launches. 294 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 1: I'm surprised by this, given how rough the fee war 295 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: has gotten and how some we saw some launches that 296 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: came out at zero fee and negative fee. I thought 297 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: this would put a little more fear into the bones 298 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 1: of people who had e t F s lined up, 299 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: But they're coming out like crazy still, probably because the 300 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: e t F continue to take in most of the flows. Uh. 301 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: Interesting on the top ten list, like so the new launches, 302 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: which are the rookies of the year, Which ones are 303 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: taking in the most cash? Barely any big names? I 304 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: mean yes, the top two are E s G. That's 305 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 1: also a shocker. Um I've been barished on E s G, 306 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: but these two have overcome that. It's the I Shares 307 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: and the Deutsche Bank, mostly because all that money came 308 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: from one investor, a European pension funds, so institutions could 309 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: be the way for E s G. Four that's interesting 310 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: observation from those. Also two big thematic ETFs in the 311 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: top ten, the global X cloud computing. There was already 312 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: one of the market, but the global X came in 313 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: and it's already got four hundred million. That is a 314 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: shocker to me. It charges the sixty eight basis points 315 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: and it shows you can still innovate and win because 316 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: this one is much more targeted than Sky the first 317 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: trust one, and it's doing a lot better this year. 318 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: I think it's up six percent for the Sky flat 319 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: because it goes after the smaller, more pure play companies. 320 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: That's interesting. And then finally on the list, you've got Yolo, 321 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: which is the marijuana et F. I was shocked it 322 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: took people so long to do a me too potty 323 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: t F. I was this is probably the most no 324 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: brainer launch you could ever think of, because there's definitely 325 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: enough interest. Mj is now a billion dollars ish, I 326 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: would be not I wouldn't be surprised if we see 327 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: a couple more potty tfs come out all out of 328 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: the robotics craze of a year ago. Um, but as 329 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: they keep coming out, they're gonna law of diminishing returns 330 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: will kick in, but the tickers should be really something. 331 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: I'm anticipating some crazy tickers in that space. But anyway, 332 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: on the flip side, there's been ninety one closures. That's 333 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: also shockingly high. If you extrapolate that, you get to 334 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: one eight and one eighty would crush the record. I 335 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: think the old records about a hundred and twenty five. 336 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: So this tells me that yes, there's a lot of 337 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: innovation and a lot of excitement, but there's a lot 338 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: of Darwinism going on, and you have an industry I 339 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: think that's maturing. That's my takeaway on that. Well, you've 340 00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: got two camps in that you you kind of glossed 341 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: for the cheap products that have come out this year, 342 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: and for understandable reasons, because they haven't been gathering as 343 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 1: much assets the ultra cheap or free products. Maybe we'll 344 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 1: come back to that one later on, but thematic has 345 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: really been the way of investing for launching new products 346 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: because you can be differentiated in how you interpret the 347 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 1: themes we now have. I think now our third and 348 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 1: our fourth related gaming et F will probably see ten 349 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 1: at some point because that's such a broad open area. 350 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: I triggered myself on this. I just don't get it. 351 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 1: But what I do get. But but you're a fan 352 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: of the five quality large cap smart Beta fund, I 353 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: am because it's the in house expertise that puts me 354 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 1: to sleep. I will, I will blow your mind right 355 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 1: now if you don't get the gaming thing. I have 356 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: a younger brother, actually he was a professional gamer. Well 357 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: now he's retired, but believable, and this is a this 358 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: is a thing. I'm sure, this is I'm sure, but 359 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: we now again we have now more gaming related et 360 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: s out there than home building related e t f s. 361 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: What I just think is interesting is that we're seeing 362 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: a lot of these innovations that are out there. I 363 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: shares his launched products in the thematic and trend oriented space. 364 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: We've seen State Street launch it. We're seeing some of 365 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: the bigger boys come in, and that's gonna against spur 366 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 1: additional innovation and adoption because you've got to find where 367 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 1: the puck is going to uh to skate to it 368 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: and and these smaller firms are really doing a good 369 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: job of launching these products. In my view, the real 370 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 1: reason thematics are are becoming big business is the modern 371 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 1: portfolio is real low cost core. Right, you know, you've 372 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: got this building block of like a baby five bits 373 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 1: for the whole thing, International, Developed, emerging markets, US equity bonds. 374 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 1: Then to have fun on the outside, to try for 375 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 1: a little outfit, you could do a factor factor e 376 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: T F. You could do a single country or thematics 377 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 1: and I think thematics again for advisors, are easy to explain. 378 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 1: You can buy into the story and then you put 379 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: them on top. That's why we like the hardcore thematic 380 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: ones because we're assuming you're using it as a little 381 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: hot sauce on top of the portfolio, so we say 382 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: you might as well go all the way and try 383 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: to really capture. So that's why that thematic capture score 384 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: that we create I think is crucial and hopefully you know, 385 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 1: helps people navigating because now a lot of these categories 386 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: have three or four e T s to pick from. Robotics, cybersecurity, 387 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 1: cloud computing, you name it. But what the other part 388 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: of that from an asset management perspective is you can 389 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 1: charge forty five, fifty sixty eight basis points for these 390 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 1: products and still be able to gather assets as opposed 391 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: to even though we've seen competition the floor is considerably 392 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: higher for these products overall, whereas I Shares has three 393 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: and four and five basis point products. It's a lot 394 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: harder to become profitable if you're a public company that way. 395 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: That's true, and that gets us to the shiny object 396 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: stuff we've talked about. If you're hardcore and concentrated, you 397 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: have the shiny object potential because you're in smaller companies. 398 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: And when some of these products hit, they hit big. 399 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: I mean, they don't perform by two or three percentage points, 400 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: they are performed by twenty percentage points, so nobody cares 401 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 1: that it charges sixty And that's the beauty of a 402 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 1: thematic et F from an issuer standpoint and from the 403 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: investor that said, the problem with thematic et f s 404 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: if they are concentrated is you really have to buy 405 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: into the story because you will see volatility. Like if 406 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: you're into robotics, are you really into robotics? Are you 407 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 1: into performance chasing? How many people can stomach when those 408 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: things have a rough run because say, hi, beta stocks 409 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: are selling off currently you have to buy and solar 410 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 1: energy is happening with that this year right Look at 411 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 1: tannis Yere, one of the best performing ets out there. Yeah, 412 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: but if you're gonna swing for the fences, you better 413 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 1: make contact because you're gonna you're gonna strike out quite 414 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: a lot. So there is a catch twenty two in 415 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: going for the goal with thematic ETFs. You need a 416 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: stomach for it. But it probably makes more sense to 417 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: go and pure and capture the industry because a lot 418 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: of those stocks typically when they go pure, they're not 419 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: in other big indexes, so you're getting unique exposure. Yeah. 420 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,360 Speaker 1: I mean, well, Eric talked about from a flows perspective, 421 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: the E s G products and they got the money 422 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 1: from institutional investors, but US s G, which is that 423 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: was the cheapest of those two products. I believe that 424 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: s USL cut the fee as well, but ten basis 425 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: points for E s G exposure that's broadly diversified across 426 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: the sectors. E s G has been off on the 427 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,959 Speaker 1: sidelines in part because they charge a premium fee. If 428 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: you're going to compete on price for an E s 429 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: G product, you're likely to get further adoption. And I 430 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: think we're gonna see that throughout the year. And let 431 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 1: me bring up one other new launch that this is 432 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 1: the e t F to watch b b U S. 433 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: Todd and I have a bet on this one and 434 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 1: how fast it will grow. It's only thirty million now, 435 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 1: but JP Morgan launched this thing, and if yeah, I 436 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: mean it could grow quickly. And here's this is fascinating. 437 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 1: B b US is literally a straight knockoff of the 438 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: SMP five hundred. Have you ever seen coming to America 439 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: McDonald's versus McDowell's. This is McDowell's of the SMP. It's 440 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 1: so close that they literally have the same, like ten 441 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: point performance through the first core or the stocks are 442 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: almost the same. I mean, there's almost no overlap. Why 443 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: are they doing that? Why would they do that? The 444 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: Golden arcs, the Golden arcs, the Golden arches right. Anyway, 445 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: if you look, JP Morgan is the largest owner of SPY. 446 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: They own something like I want to say, twenty billion 447 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: dollars or the v S p Y. That's a lot 448 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: of their advisor business. It's very likely some of that 449 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 1: is going to be converted over to b b U S. 450 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 1: And this is this b y O a bring your 451 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 1: own assets. Thing we talk about is more and more 452 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,639 Speaker 1: issuers that hold SPY and i VV these companies that 453 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: have large advisor networks. If they launched their own McDowell's 454 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: versions of these, you could see a big ceiling on 455 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,119 Speaker 1: the black Rock Vanguard juggernaut. I'm not sure will happen widespread, 456 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: but if b bus starts to take off and everybody 457 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 1: accepts it as not like having a huge conflict of interest, 458 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: which I don't think it does because it's cheaper, does 459 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 1: the same thing. It's not like you're putting your clients 460 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: into something more expensive or different. Um, but b b 461 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: us is want to watch this could be a ten 462 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: billion dollar et F in a couple of years. Yeah, 463 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: I mean the JP Morgan is launching or expanding a 464 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: retail oriented program for investments later on the summer. I 465 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: forgot the exact date, and that's the time period. You know, 466 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: you're gonna have an asset allocation strategy that has b 467 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: bus as as the core for the US. You're gonna 468 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 1: have a your product b b EU, which is out 469 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 1: there from them. They've got Canada, they've got Japan. You 470 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: could build an asset allocation strategy using JP Morgan's owned products, 471 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 1: and it's highly likely that JP Morgan is the one 472 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: who's going to make that available for their client, and 473 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,679 Speaker 1: if I didn't mention b bus charges two basis points, 474 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: that's just under VOO and IBV cheapest, cheapest like the 475 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 1: Big the Big Mick, Okay, Sarah, any other observations. So 476 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: I have one more observation that I just find really 477 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: strange or not strange, but very unexpected. And two reporters 478 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 1: that were on the new side, Rachel Evans and build 479 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: on a hazrec found that if you look at the 480 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: ten top performing e t s this year, eight of 481 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: the ten of them have less than a hundred million 482 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: dollars in assets. So it goes to show you you 483 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: don't have to be big to be great. Now, Yes, 484 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,919 Speaker 1: a lot of these funds are leveraged three times leveraged 485 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: products you could imagine, but one of them is are 486 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 1: you s L So that's a direction daily Russiable three 487 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: times shares fund. When a lot of people think about 488 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 1: investing outside of the US, you hear about India a lot, 489 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 1: of course, you hear about China, emerging markets, Europe. You 490 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,639 Speaker 1: don't hear about Russia too often. But there is this 491 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: fundamentally good, strong economic story for Russia, and the fund 492 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: is up or more this year, so pretty amazing and 493 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: I think it's something people wouldn't really expect. That reminds 494 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 1: me of last episode where we had Sylvia Jablonsky on 495 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: maker of the three x E t F. So just 496 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: a warning, these are power tools daily usage. Uh, Sarah 497 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: just did a great job promoting the return. But let's 498 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: just they're not supposed to hold on to it for 499 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 1: the whole ser second series months. They could be zero. 500 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:05,200 Speaker 1: But Todd, how's yours? There's a good reason that this 501 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: product has little assets. Three times leveraged a country that 502 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: the United States is not on good terms with stuff. 503 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: He doesn't like it. He could serve him a Davis 504 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: large cap and he's happy. Everyone should go to take back. Okay, 505 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: so if it's half time, we got to talk about 506 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,159 Speaker 1: the second half? What are you guys watching? Yeah, I 507 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: mean the exciting thing to us is that in the 508 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 1: first half we didn't touch on it, but in the 509 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: first half of the year we've got the regulatory approval 510 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: for non transparent et f s. I think you guys 511 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: may have covered that beforehand on the show. Uh. These 512 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 1: are e t fs that will be disclosed as infrequently 513 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: of the holding's perspective as mutual funds, and there's a 514 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 1: number of big boy asset managers that are lining up 515 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 1: to work with Presidian that have have a license agreement. 516 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 1: I think there's a couple of dozen firms out there 517 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,640 Speaker 1: that are doing this them that have not offered ETFs 518 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 1: to begin with, and I think that's going to cause 519 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 1: not you know, not only new products to launches, as 520 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: Eric touched on of breaking the record, but we're gonna 521 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: see some of these firms dip their toe in or 522 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 1: more aggressively move into the e t F market. From 523 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: like American Century that has already e t f s 524 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 1: today is likely to expand their lineup we have from 525 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: like American Funds, it doesn't have anything to do that. 526 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,160 Speaker 1: And so I know, the easy argument is nobody wants 527 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: these products, but people want mutual funds. Easy it though, 528 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: it's the correct argument. I mean, look, I feel I 529 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: don't want to be barrassed on these because I'm willing 530 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: to be open minded in surprise. But here's the question 531 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 1: to ask you, Look, some of these a lot of 532 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: these firms you just mentioned already have transparent active ETFs 533 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 1: and nobody's buying them, and obviously they are mutual funds 534 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 1: are seeing outflows a lot of them. So it's like 535 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 1: the metaphor I uses, You've just made this incredibly awesome, new, 536 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 1: state of the art dog food ball, but the dog 537 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: doesn't want the food in it. The dog has to 538 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 1: want the food in the bowl. Yeah, but I think 539 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,879 Speaker 1: who's gonna want it in the part of why that 540 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 1: the issue is is that the firms are not committing 541 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: to it, so that many of these firms that have 542 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: a small et F presence within a larger asset management 543 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: company are not putting the resources, the marketing, the distribution 544 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 1: teams to support those efforts. If they're can work directly 545 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: connected with the mutual funds UH and the people who 546 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 1: are advocating and educating about those mutual funds. I really 547 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: think you're gonna see greater adoption that's out there. And 548 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 1: there's a whole host of advisors that would be very 549 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: happy to buy an American funds e t F because 550 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: they love American funds. There just isn't an ETF available 551 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,680 Speaker 1: for for them. That's the advisor I'm not sure I 552 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: think is A is A I don't think that demand 553 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,560 Speaker 1: is interesting to me. The distribution, the relationships, the hey, 554 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 1: this is better than the old thing. I get that, 555 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 1: but grassroots, organic demand from that sort of classic et 556 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: F investor, I'm not sure. The other question is could 557 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 1: they convert their mutual funds to this or will they 558 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: move money over? And I just don't think some of 559 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: these firms have the stomach to move something from a 560 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: higher revenue source to a lower revenue source. You know, 561 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 1: I could be wrong. I just I see these struggling 562 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: over time, Sarah, I will go the complete opposite direction. 563 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: And something that's amazed me all year long has been 564 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: the I p o E t F. Because it feels 565 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: like everyone hears names like Uber, you hear names like Lift, 566 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: which didn't have the best I p s, and people 567 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 1: think that it's been a rocky start, but it really 568 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: has it. I mean I p o s are off 569 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 1: to an unbelievable year. The I p o E t 570 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 1: F up more than thirty and I think that this 571 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 1: is really going to be a very hot area going forwards. 572 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: We're supposed to see more launches, and if the environment 573 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 1: that we have seen so far this year continues, where 574 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 1: people are actually willing to really reach for risk and 575 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,239 Speaker 1: get on on these funds, we could see more well 576 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 1: from a performance standpoint, they're likely to be driven more 577 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 1: because some of these companies will have to have to 578 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: wait a little bit of time before they get added 579 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 1: to the SMPI index or other indexes that have much 580 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 1: more money behind it. And so you'll it's still surprising 581 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 1: that there's one kind of a second one from First 582 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: Trust that's an i p o E t F given 583 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: the range of products that are at, the new stocks 584 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: that are out there, and the and demand four I 585 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: p o s. So I think we're gonna see I 586 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: think we should see more of them and again surprising 587 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 1: I p s that still could happen in the second 588 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 1: half of the year. We work among them fp X 589 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: to me, at these they're underrated. Um, they hold these 590 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 1: stocks them anywhere else. Yeah, they hold them for the 591 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 1: two or three I call catch and release. You know, 592 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 1: they grab the top releases really long. It's four years 593 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: for for that one, and you only need to be 594 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: right a couple of times because like you only need 595 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: a couple of facebooks to totally make up for the deads. 596 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: But yeah, that that et F. Look at the performance 597 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 1: of FPX over the past fifteen years, unbelievable. My prediction 598 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 1: is that US equity e t f s are going 599 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,479 Speaker 1: to regain control and knock out this fixed income narrative 600 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: and and lead the year in flows by the end 601 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 1: of the year. And I'll tell you why. It's it 602 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 1: is bold. Wait, that's something that's sent of the overall 603 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 1: et F pie is gonna continue to do that. It's 604 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 1: been it's against like your last twenty tweets, it's against 605 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: the whole narrative we've been hearing now is it's fixed 606 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 1: income fixed and come US equity sucks. I just don't 607 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: see it happening. Here's what I I just think Trump's 608 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 1: desire to use the stock market as a campaign item 609 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 1: a big one, is going to make him make the 610 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 1: trade deal happen. It's going to make him sort of 611 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: coerce the FED to keep right slow. And that's going 612 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 1: to get the trading crowd involved. Because if you look 613 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: at flows, we've divided them from allocators buying whold ETFs 614 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 1: to the ones that traders use. The ones that traders 615 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 1: use have seen a negative outflows of fifteen billion this year. 616 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: The allocators are doing their thing forty five. They're going 617 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 1: to continue. But if the trading crowd comes back in 618 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: and buys like the I w M s and the spies. 619 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 1: That's what's missing from this year and a little bit 620 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 1: from last year. If that crowd comes in hard, I 621 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 1: think that's when you see US Equity E t F 622 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: sort of regain that sort of um, you know, lead 623 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 1: dog aspect that they're normally used to. But we'll it 624 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: could go the other direction. That's elections in over a year. 625 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: We still got plenty of time for him to make 626 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 1: but he's gonna be seeing the debates and people talking 627 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: trash and he's gonna I'm telling you this is just 628 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 1: a complete theory by me, and that it also indicates 629 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: that that the fete is an independent which is kind of, 630 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: you know, blasphemy, But I'm just saying my thoughts. Todd. 631 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: I I think there's no question that US Equity ETF 632 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: are going to dominate in the second half of the year. 633 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: I think what we saw thus far in June is 634 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: that's been UH investors have gravitated towards it. But when 635 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 1: you're seventy of the overall marketplace, it's like saying you 636 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 1: think Golden State is going to return to the finals, 637 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: which they have done in the last three years. Yes, 638 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,200 Speaker 1: and I was rooting for them, and that's great. But 639 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 1: the underdog that's out there, it's like perhaps picking the 640 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 1: Philadelphia seventies six years a year ago and rooting for 641 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 1: them is as some of them Michigan to lose the 642 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: World Series. So we're taping this for everybody's purposes. We're 643 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 1: taping this on the eve of what is the last 644 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 1: game of the College World Series and Michigan. I have 645 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: to admit that I'm Sarah and I are both proud 646 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 1: in Michigan alums. It's Michigan had a baseball team. He 647 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 1: went a few months ago. I wasn't paying attention to it, 648 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 1: but I'll happily jump on that bandwagon. Of course. Yes, 649 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 1: but they don't play in June. It ends the season's over. 650 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: These guys are spoiled rotten. They've got baseball now on 651 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 1: top of basketball and football. I got Runners is like 652 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: and everything is including like field hockey. That's me complaining 653 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,880 Speaker 1: you guys. You guys are spoiled rotten. Go Blue Todd, Sarah, 654 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 1: thanks for joining us, and Trillion, thanks for having it, 655 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, Thanks for listening to trillions. Until next time, 656 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, 657 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,320 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast, Spotify, and wherever else you like to listen. 658 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. We're on Twitter, I'm 659 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 1: at Joel Webber Show, He's at Eric ball Tunis. You 660 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: can get Todd at Todd c f r A and 661 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 1: Sarah at Sarah Ponzack. Trillions is produced by Magnus Hendrickson. 662 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 1: Princessica Levie is the head for Bloomberg podcast Tit