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Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan

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Speaker 1: Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. All right,

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Speaker 1: a little instant reaction as the Niners hold on to

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Speaker 1: beat the Seahawks on Thursday Night a football. It looks

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Speaker 1: a lot like all these forty nine wins this year. Right,

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Speaker 1: an unblockable defensive line, take a lead somewhere first half,

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Speaker 1: and then kind of grind it out. Christian McCaffrey carries

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Speaker 1: eat the clock. So let's talk a little about brock Purty.

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Speaker 1: The offense is pretty much the same with the exception

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Speaker 1: they can move the pocket more because of brock Purtty's feet.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you look at San Francisco, half the

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Speaker 1: league is undrafted. So just take the Niners as you

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Speaker 1: look at brock Purtty being the final player taken in

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Speaker 1: the seventh round. Well, two of his targets. George Kittle

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Speaker 1: was drafted in the fifth round out of Iowa. George

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Speaker 1: Kittle was a late bloomer. Do you realize he only

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Speaker 1: had forty eight catches total at Iowa. He didn't have

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Speaker 1: eight hundred yards receiving at Iowa, a program that puts

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Speaker 1: out a lot of talented tight ends. Juwan Jennings a

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Speaker 1: wide receiver for the Niners. He was a seventh round pick.

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Speaker 1: So you know, there's so many good skill players now,

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Speaker 1: so many guys can catch the ball run. The NFL

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Speaker 1: is furnished about twenty five good receivers a year out

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Speaker 1: of college football, so it's not shocking. Again. Ryan Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 1: was a seventh round quarterback and through for thirty five

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Speaker 1: thousand yards and is now on the Amazon broadcast. And

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Speaker 1: it's interesting if you look at Brock Purty, So he

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Speaker 1: went to high school in Arizona. He ended up being

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Speaker 1: the Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Arizona.

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Speaker 1: So you know, if you're a Gatorade Player of the

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Speaker 1: Year in the state I grew up in Washington State,

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Speaker 1: you know you usually end up going and starting and

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Speaker 1: being a star at college and oftentimes brock Hewarge prime example,

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Speaker 1: you go play in the NFL. He was in Pulup

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Speaker 1: High School. He's now at Fox, former Husky and Colt quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So Brock Purty was the Gatorade Player of the Year.

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Speaker 1: That's his final year in Arizona. But he started as

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Speaker 1: a soft moore in high school in a really tough division.

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Speaker 1: And then he goes to Iowa State and he ends

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Speaker 1: up playing seven or eight games as a freshman. And

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Speaker 1: here he is as a rookie playing So what do

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Speaker 1: we get high school college on pro Brock Purtty is

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Speaker 1: a guy that steps right in with a lot of confidence,

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Speaker 1: self awareness. He obviously is a bright kid. He learns

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Speaker 1: to play book quickly. So you know, he starts as

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Speaker 1: a sophomore in high school, of freshman in college and

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Speaker 1: now a rookie in the NFL. And remember they were

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Speaker 1: very comfortable when Trey Lance got hurt and they moved

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Speaker 1: Garoppolo in. They were very comfortable brock Purtty being the

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Speaker 1: number two. There was no doubt about it. He'd played

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Speaker 1: in the preseason. They liked him. So it's just I

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Speaker 1: think sometimes you look at the final round, the seventh

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Speaker 1: round in the NFL and there's players everywhere in this league.

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Speaker 1: So why didn't you know Brock Purtty get drafted higher.

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Speaker 1: He's not huge, He's about six one two fifteen six

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Speaker 1: one six one and a half. That's on the small

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Speaker 1: side for a pocket quarterback. Also played in the Big Twelve,

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Speaker 1: where a lot of quarterbacks have failed, and you know,

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Speaker 1: you get run and shoot scores, you get you know,

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Speaker 1: fifty four forty five in the conference. So there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of offense, and therefore in the NFL there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit. You know, before Patrick Mahomes and that run

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Speaker 1: of Heisman winners at Oklahoma, there was a real feel,

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Speaker 1: you know, Big twelve football quarterbacks were you know, busts,

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Speaker 1: high scoring, no defense in the conference. Sage Rosenfeld's is

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Speaker 1: a former NFL quarterback who played at Iowa State. You know,

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Speaker 1: Brock Purty was a really, really, really strong college quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about this. He was All Big Twelve

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Speaker 1: in that wild conference where there's a lot of points.

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Speaker 1: He was All Big Twelve twice, and then he was

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Speaker 1: second team All Big Twelve as a sophomore. So this

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Speaker 1: is a hot The Gatorade Player of the Year in

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Speaker 1: Arizona two times, actually a three time first or second

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Speaker 1: team All Conference college guy who Alabama had in for

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Speaker 1: a visit. It's a really talented guy, but you know,

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Speaker 1: a little on the small side, and also he can

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Speaker 1: be a little streaky. I went and looked at his

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Speaker 1: scouting profile from Lance Zerline, a guy I respect whose

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Speaker 1: dad was a coach in the NFL for years and

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Speaker 1: he's a sportscaster in Houston and does some stuff for

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Speaker 1: I think the NFL network. You know, that was the

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Speaker 1: knock on brock Purty. He could be a little bit streaky,

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Speaker 1: he can get out of rhythm, a little squirrely, but

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Speaker 1: high completion percentage. I just I'm not shocked by it.

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Speaker 1: When I watched them in the preseason, I thought it's

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Speaker 1: pretty good. I'll say it again. He's Taylor Heineke, but

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Speaker 1: more accurate, and Taylor Heineke is winning games for the

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Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. We also have a culture now where there's

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Speaker 1: just more quarterbacks who can play high school college in pro.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is not nineteen ninety eight, it's not

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. The game now is absolutely offensive.

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Speaker 1: If you can go to a high school football game

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Speaker 1: where I live in Southern California. You've got teams thrown

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Speaker 1: at forty five times a game right in these big leagues.

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Speaker 1: So good for brock Purty. And I think the Niners

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Speaker 1: feel like, to me, maybe the only other team in

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Speaker 1: the NFC very capable of going to Philadelphia and playing

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Speaker 1: the Eagles and sitting in the center of the ring

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Speaker 1: and exchanging blows. I think they're that good. And I

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Speaker 1: think they're basically more athletic than they were with Jimmy Garoppolo.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Seahawks regression to the beam. You know,

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Speaker 1: whenever I get too hot with my blazing five picks,

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Speaker 1: I'll eventually go one for four. I think Geno Smith

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Speaker 1: Seattle has two first round picks, they have Denvers, so

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Speaker 1: right now it's the second or the third pick. I

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Speaker 1: think it's the third. You're gonna take a quarterback. Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young is probably not available. Houston with a number one

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Speaker 1: pick will probably take Bryce Young. So you can take CJ.

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Speaker 1: Strout out of Ohio state. I don't know. I've seen

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Speaker 1: them lose twice to Michigan. I don't know, or will

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Speaker 1: leave us from Kentucky who got a real arm. Sean

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Speaker 1: Payton told me of all the quarterbacks. He thought he

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Speaker 1: was really really interesting will leave us. So you know,

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Speaker 1: his college stats don't blow you away, but kid that

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Speaker 1: can really spin it. And you know, Seattle's got a

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Speaker 1: few other needs, interior defensive line, interior offensive line. I

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Speaker 1: still think they need another receiver, another back behind Kenneth Walker,

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Speaker 1: a few more bigs on the defensive front. But Geno

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Speaker 1: Smith is as we've talked about Tua, there was no

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Speaker 1: real history as a guy who's a bust and then

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Speaker 1: goes on to be a Pro Bowl quarterback. That kind

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Speaker 1: of stuff just doesn't happen in the NFL. And so

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Speaker 1: now we're post Thanksgiving, whether it's colder, guys get banged up,

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Speaker 1: people have more film, and you're kind of getting on

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Speaker 1: Geno Smith. What you think. He's a big guy who

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Speaker 1: can He's got a good arm, he really does. He

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Speaker 1: has a really really nice arm. You can certainly win

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Speaker 1: games with them. But when we all know, when you

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Speaker 1: start looking at Vegas odds, who's going to win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, it's the same thing with Tua. Now it

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Speaker 1: gets cold, now it gets windy. Now you don't have

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Speaker 1: all your receivers. Now your left tackle is out. That's

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Speaker 1: when Joe Burrow wins and Mahomes wins, and Herbert wins

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Speaker 1: and Tuah and Gino Smith. You know, things level out.

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Speaker 1: The one thing I will say about Seattle is that,

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Speaker 1: you know Pete Carroll. I often refer to him as

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Speaker 1: you know, like he's a seventy year old head coach.

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Speaker 1: His energy is like nothing I've ever seen. I don't

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Speaker 1: know really how to explain Pete Carroll. He wears that

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Speaker 1: gum out. He's got a lot of power in that organization.

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Speaker 1: I don't see him going anywhere. And I think Seattle

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Speaker 1: is going to be too good for the next several years.

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Speaker 1: Too competitive. They're not going to get in the top

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Speaker 1: five at quarterback again. So even if they need interior

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Speaker 1: defensive lineman, this draft has a lot in the top ten,

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Speaker 1: top twelve, they're gonna have to take a quarterback. They're

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Speaker 1: not going to be in that top two three spot again.

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Speaker 1: And so my guess it's gonna be Will Levis or C. J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud for Seattle. I would take Levis from Kentucky San

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Speaker 1: Francisco if Brock Purty hoists the Lombardi Trophy. I know

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Speaker 1: it sounds ridiculous, but doesn't this kind of sound ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Think about this. Jalen Hurts, who basically had to leave

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Speaker 1: Alabama because the greatest college football coach of all time,

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Speaker 1: Nick Saban, said yeah, it's not working. Here goes to

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma second in the Heisman, second round pick for Philadelphia,

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Speaker 1: they've already got, you know, like Carson Wentz, and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, not long after that, Jalen Hurts, who

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Speaker 1: had to transfer in college, who we thought was a

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Speaker 1: runner over a thrower, is starting for the Eagles, gets

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Speaker 1: them to the playoffs in year two, and then a

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Speaker 1: year three is up for MVP. That sounds totally improbable.

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Speaker 1: So that's who Brock pretty could eventually be playing in

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Speaker 1: the NFC Championship in Philadelphia. And I think it's a

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Speaker 1: go either way game. It'll probably be a low scoring,

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Speaker 1: highly physical wild game. Deebo Samuel back by that time.

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Speaker 1: You know that's a twenty seventeen game either way, don't

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Speaker 1: count it out. Let's welcome in Chad Millman's CCEO Action Network.

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Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by a fan duel. So

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Speaker 1: it's a weird week. I've shifted some bets. I don't

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Speaker 1: like favorites much, but I'm gonna start with two because

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Speaker 1: I don't like him. Monday night football. Everybody loves Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 1: Packers get a little extra rest minus six and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's a much better team. Let's not kid ourselves. The

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Speaker 1: Rams aren't good. This feels like Packers buy a touchdown

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Speaker 1: a sharper square. I gotta tell you this one is

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Speaker 1: really interesting. Not a ton of activity on this game.

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Speaker 1: In conversation. From a sharp perspective, I think you're on

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Speaker 1: the right side at less than a touchdown. There's too

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Speaker 1: much enthusiasm from the market when you are looking at

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Speaker 1: a Baker Mayfield quarterback team. This is not a guy

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Speaker 1: who wins games, right. We've seen that over and over again.

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Speaker 1: I think with the Packers, obviously there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: trepidation here. But like the numbers on this one, the

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Speaker 1: Rams getting the majority of the tickets, and that's why

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Speaker 1: you've seen it come down a little bit. The money's

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Speaker 1: heading in the Packers direction. So if you can get

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Speaker 1: him at six and a half, I would take it.

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Speaker 1: Here's another one. I bet against the Jaguars earlier this

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Speaker 1: year off a big win. They're a young team. They

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Speaker 1: come home, they see the Cowboys in their sights off

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Speaker 1: one of their best games in a decade. Dallas humiliated

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Speaker 1: bult one against Houston. Cowboys are getting healthier. It's one

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Speaker 1: of those middle numbers, like a five. In that case,

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Speaker 1: I just think Dallas is a significantly better team. Sharper square.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the Cowboys. Oh my god, you're living in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the square, Like you don't even have

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Speaker 1: any sort of room to wiggle on this one. Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence past nine weeks, past six weeks, top two quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, ten touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: zero picks, all these releases and issues he had in

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Speaker 1: the red zone, thrown passes that were too flat, didn't

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Speaker 1: have any touch not building chemistry with Doug Peterson. They've

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Speaker 1: been a very good team in the past few weeks.

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Speaker 1: We've seen that they we've seen them getting better. I'm

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Speaker 1: not fazed by sort of the blowout of the Titans

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Speaker 1: on the road, especially against the Cowboys pass rush. That

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Speaker 1: is the strength of their defense, but it's also the

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Speaker 1: strength of the Jags offensive line. They are fifth in

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Speaker 1: protecting Trevor Lawrence against the pass rush in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: And the other thing I'll say is that the Cowboys secondary.

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Speaker 1: They are injured and that's one of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: they struggled against the Texans. So Trevor Lawrence, who is

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the underdogs, Titans getting three

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Speaker 1: at the Chargers. Tennessee off a humiliating loss. Yes they're

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Speaker 1: banged up, but again, let's not go crazy with the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Their defense set the tone against Miami. Titans. Have the

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Speaker 1: better defense, the better coach, the better run game consistently

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Speaker 1: can stop the run. I like Tennessee in the point

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Speaker 1: sharper square total number game very sharp. If this gets

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Speaker 1: to two and a half, you're going to see people

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Speaker 1: come in on the Chargers. Right now at three, majority

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Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Titans. The Chargers

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Speaker 1: are not a team that anybody wants to play when

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Speaker 1: their favorites. They are great as an under dog because

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Speaker 1: their variants plays to wide sort of disparities and what

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Speaker 1: you can expect, and they do things that allow you

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Speaker 1: as a better on an underdog Charger team to stay

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Speaker 1: in the game. Meanwhile, as favorites, they're just not very good.

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Speaker 1: The Titans, however, as underdogs with Mike Rabel, are very good.

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Speaker 1: You've got a coaching advantage with the Titans, You've got

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Speaker 1: them in a spot that favors them, and then with

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Speaker 1: the Chargers you kind of don't know what you're getting yet. Defensively,

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Speaker 1: Joey Bose is supposed to come back, but this has

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Speaker 1: been a team that is at a hard time as

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Speaker 1: a defense, so it's very hard to bet on them

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Speaker 1: as a favorite. Patriots Raiders I like New England comfortably.

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Speaker 1: I think although Belichick's former coaches do okay against him,

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Speaker 1: this sort of ball control offense by New England on

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Speaker 1: display against Arizona. Uh. I still think the Raiders are

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Speaker 1: a team that plays really hard, but there are some

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Speaker 1: holes they can't overcome, and Belichick this is what he does.

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Speaker 1: If you've got holes he'll find them. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a boring, quick game with a lot of run involved.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking eighty carries. But if it's a pick him

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Speaker 1: or close, which is where the numbers at Raiders minus one,

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Speaker 1: I take the Patriots the win here sharper square as

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Speaker 1: square as square gets. The wise guys love the Raiders

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Speaker 1: in this spot. The Patriots have terrible skill players on

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Speaker 1: offense as it is, and now the players that they

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Speaker 1: were depending on are injured Damian Harris, Ramondre Stevenson, Devant

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Speaker 1: Day Parker. We don't know what we're getting in that group.

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Speaker 1: The wise guys make the Raiders two point favorites. So

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Speaker 1: when this game opened at Raiders plus one and a half,

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Speaker 1: the wise guys started hammering it. It's why the line

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Speaker 1: has moved in the direction that it has. It's a

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Speaker 1: team that, as you noted, still plays hard. They are

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Speaker 1: probably getting Hunter Renfro and Darren wallerback. Both of them

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Speaker 1: practiced this week. They can still make the playoffs. They're

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Speaker 1: in every game the Raiders at home, they basically pick

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Speaker 1: a very short favorite. By the time the game kicks off,

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be the wise guy said, Giants getting four

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Speaker 1: and a half against the Commanders. I had Taylor Heinekey

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Speaker 1: on my show today, but if you look at his numbers,

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Speaker 1: they're underwhelming. This is a Washington team that has more

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Speaker 1: talent than New York four and a half. It's a

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Speaker 1: ton of points. Daniel Jones playing for his career, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go with the points. Giants Division rival Sharper Square.

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Speaker 1: Interesting game. The sharp side is definitely the Giants. There's

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Speaker 1: no reason the Commanders should be four and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites. They just played two weeks ago, while the

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Speaker 1: Commanders are on the by the Giants in that game,

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Speaker 1: even though it's a tie game, terribly ugly game. The

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Speaker 1: Giants were ahead by a touchdown for most of the

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Speaker 1: second half and they missed a game winning field goal.

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Speaker 1: So now there's automatically inflation when a team like the

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Speaker 1: Giants is coming off of a blowout loss. Right, So

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Speaker 1: that's why the number drifted up to four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Nobody saw the Commanders play terribly last week. They didn't play. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: team's coming off a blowout the past twenty years, So

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Speaker 1: the Giants in this spot, they're covering at a fifty

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Speaker 1: five percent clip. This is Washington's biggest spread of the

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Speaker 1: season against a team that was beating them two weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: It's the sharp side, But I will tell you I've

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Speaker 1: had a couple guys say to me they love the

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Speaker 1: Commanders that are professional betters. We talked about this on

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Speaker 1: the favorite Pot today. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm

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Speaker 1: just saying it's not always a consensus. So be wary.

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Speaker 1: Bears plus nine extra rest Philadelphia coming off a dominating win.

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Speaker 1: I always pull back. The world likes right now the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: I think they're in a position they could rest. Players

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Speaker 1: getting healthy, Chicago again, people playing for their jobs, people

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Speaker 1: putting stuff on tape, young offensive line. I like the

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Speaker 1: Bears on the point here to keep it reasonably close,

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Speaker 1: sharper square to lead sharp and remember we talked about

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Speaker 1: this two weeks ago. The Rams eight and a half

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Speaker 1: point underdogs against Seattle. Last week the Broncos nine point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: The Broncos nine point underdogs against the Chiefs. Same similar

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Speaker 1: scenario here the Bears plus nine against a high flying

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Speaker 1: Eagles team. Huge amount of money on the Bears. This

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Speaker 1: is exactly the side that the professionals want to be on.

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Speaker 1: A reminder, and I said this last week because it's

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Speaker 1: still relevant, even more relevant when you get teams winning

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Speaker 1: at a sixty five percent clip over the course of

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Speaker 1: the year playing against really bad teams like the Bears.

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Speaker 1: And that's the delta we're talking about between the Eagles

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Speaker 1: and the Bears. This week, the Dogs are covering in

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Speaker 1: nearly sixty percent. So that's what happens when you get

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Speaker 1: late in the year. You get inflation on these teams

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Speaker 1: that are really good. All right, we always close with

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Speaker 1: a game I could be talked into. I think Buffalo

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Speaker 1: and bad weather could destroy the Dolphins. What say you,

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square, tell me the side. I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: The number has moved to seven. But there's not a

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Speaker 1: ton of wise guy activity on this game because people

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Speaker 1: are waiting to see how bad the weather really is.

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Speaker 1: And I'll be honest with you, the side they're probably

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Speaker 1: going to play in this game is the over in totals,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily taking the Bills minus seven. I think they

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Speaker 1: like the Bills because the Bills, when they do win,

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Speaker 1: they tend to cover big. And I think, and we

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Speaker 1: talked about this a few weeks ago, if you were

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Speaker 1: going to fade any team down the stretch. It was

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Speaker 1: going to be Miami who three weeks ago they had

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Speaker 1: come off six straight really easy games at home or indoors,

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Speaker 1: and they were heading into the end of the year

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Speaker 1: where they were going to be on the road in

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Speaker 1: really tough spots, including this game. So wise guys probably

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Speaker 1: will bet the Bills minus seven, but they love the

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Speaker 1: over in this game because the snow tends to play

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Speaker 1: to the offensive strength. Finally, a game I missed, Colts Vikings.

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Speaker 1: How do we not talk about Colts Vikings? Oh God,

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Speaker 1: come on, come on. This is a great bounce back

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Speaker 1: spot for the Colts. They when they've gotten killed this year,

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Speaker 1: as they did two weeks ago, they've come back in one.

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00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 1: Minnesota's defense is terrible, forced two punts against the Lions.

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Speaker 1: The week before, they gave up nearly five hundred yards

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Speaker 1: to the Jets. The Colts are actually outgaining their opponents.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota is getting outgained by its opponents in our luck

390
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Speaker 1: rankings that we do on Action Network dot Com, which

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Speaker 1: basically are the best way to measure expected regression. So

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Speaker 1: a team that is playing way outside of itself and

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Speaker 1: is expected to come back down to earth, a team

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Speaker 1: playing a little bit below expectations. Shouldn't be playing better.

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Speaker 1: There's the biggest delta of the week in this game.

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Speaker 1: Take the Colts. Every wise guy has taken the Colts.

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Speaker 1: All right, you're talking me into it. That's a good point,

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Speaker 1: all right, buddy, good stuff. Appreciate it. I'm here for you.

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00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: The Volume. Make sure to check out The Draymond Green Show.

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Speaker 1: podcast Network.