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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing in Joe spect I'm saying it's a catch toto.

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Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big banks, all banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabation.

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Speaker 2: You want to pack and we are underway. Welcome to

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Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast presented by FANDL. This is your

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Speaker 2: NFL Week six Best Bets episode. I'm your host today,

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Speaker 2: Brendan Glass. She joined by three Action Network experts who

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Speaker 2: will go through their three favorite bets for the upcoming

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Speaker 2: Week six Sunday perhaps Monday slate. As a reminder, you

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Speaker 2: can follow our show and our picks on the Action

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Speaker 2: app by following our account Action Network NFL picks. We

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Speaker 2: are nine over five hundred against the spread twenty six seventeen.

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Speaker 2: A couple of pushes in there, we got two of those.

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Speaker 2: Through five weeks. We were just over five hundred and

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Speaker 2: week five, so we're staying afloat. We're doing fine. Today's

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Speaker 2: crew Brandon Anderson, one of our top NFL writers and

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Speaker 2: people that cover the NFL for Action Network. Luke Swain,

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Speaker 2: who is one of our newer members of Action Network,

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Speaker 2: otherwise known as Vegas Free Fund and also Dan Martinez.

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Speaker 2: He is back. He is the host of Green Dot Daily,

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Speaker 2: Action Networks Daily Show weekday's noon Eastern. You can find

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Speaker 2: it on the Action app. You can find it on

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Speaker 2: Action HQ, Twitter and also on the YouTube page. So

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Speaker 2: catch Dane there weekdays. A couple of notes before we

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Speaker 2: start bye weeks. Lions, Titans, Raiders, Texans all off the board,

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Speaker 2: so you got four less teams to worry about, and

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Speaker 2: most of those teams suck, so that's good. Underdogs. They're

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Speaker 2: rolling forty eight thirty one and one against the number,

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Speaker 2: sixty percent hit rate. They're doing really well in the

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Speaker 2: first five six weeks of the season. Now, for the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years, the Falcons the only remaining team

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Speaker 2: that is unbeaten against the spread. Bengals and Colts, the

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Speaker 2: loan teams that are perfect to the under at five

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Speaker 2: and zero and unders in prime time continue to be

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Speaker 2: a story. So if we get to any of those scenarios,

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Speaker 2: I'm curious if we go against the grain or we

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Speaker 2: ride the trends. Let's find out how we describe this

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Speaker 2: week six slate. This betting card, A sentence, a phrase,

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Speaker 2: a word. Brandon Anderson, what comes to mind?

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Speaker 5: And the biggest Sunday of the year so far. We

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Speaker 5: got Bill's Chiefs in the afternoon, Eagles Cowboys at night,

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Speaker 5: two huge games.

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Speaker 3: Let's have some fun, Luke, what do you got to me?

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Speaker 1: It's unders hitting us sixty percent and underdogs have been

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Speaker 1: hitting at I think you just said sixty percent as well,

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Speaker 1: and really interested to see if it regresses to the

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Speaker 1: mean where everything balances out after specifically the Unders.

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Speaker 2: It's been crazy, yeah, and some of those underdog numbers

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Speaker 2: two are starting to creeping up. But you're like, whoa

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Speaker 2: going on here?

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Speaker 6: Dan?

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Speaker 2: What do you have for us for a way to

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Speaker 2: describe Week six?

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's uh and they're off, you know, because

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Speaker 4: we now have you know, rest disparities, teams with buys

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Speaker 4: coming up, teams coming back from London, and teams on

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Speaker 4: their third string quarterback. You know. So it's a little

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Speaker 4: bit different than earlier in the season when we kind

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Speaker 4: of knew how everyone stood.

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Speaker 2: Okay, very good, I like it. Our first best bet

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Speaker 2: of the day will come from Brandon Anderson, per usual,

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Speaker 2: as a reminder, these guys have not consulted one another

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Speaker 2: before making picks before recording this podcast, so we could

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Speaker 2: have overlap. We may have contradictions. We welcome all of it.

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Speaker 2: We welcome the madness every man for himself here on

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Speaker 2: these best bets. So, without further ado, Brandon Anderson, your

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Speaker 2: first pick for Week six.

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Speaker 5: Is what I'm going with the Ravens on the road

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Speaker 5: in New York. I'm going to take the Ravens to

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Speaker 5: cover the six Dane you just mentioned teams coming back

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Speaker 5: from London. The Giants are one of those teams. I

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Speaker 5: think we talked about this on last week's podcast. Team's

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Speaker 5: coming out from London usually get a bye a week.

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Speaker 5: The NFL gives them the option. The Giants turned it down,

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Speaker 5: along with the Packers, along with two teams last week. Well,

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Speaker 5: last week's teams hit the trend that we talked about

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Speaker 5: right now. Opponent team total overs are six in a

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Speaker 5: one all time. When you're playing one of those teams

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Speaker 5: after a London game, they were both over their team

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Speaker 5: total last week. That helped the Ravens here, So I

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Speaker 5: like the team total over twenty five and a half.

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Speaker 5: The Ravens are gonna score. They're going to score on

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Speaker 5: this Giants defense, because do you know who leads that defense.

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Speaker 5: His name is Wink Martindale, and Lamar Jackson has been

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Speaker 5: practicing against the man for years because he used to

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Speaker 5: be the Ravens defensive coordinator until this season. The one

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Speaker 5: thing we know about Wink is he brings the blitz.

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Speaker 5: He brings pressure as early and often as he can.

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Speaker 5: Last year, that was getting Lamar Jackson. This year, Lamar

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Speaker 5: Jackson's playing like an MVP and crushing the blitz when

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Speaker 5: it comes. And Rynie Stanley back now that will help

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Speaker 5: as well. Ravens are number two in passing DV away.

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Speaker 5: I think they put up a big number on the Giants.

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Speaker 5: I think we all know as we watch this Giants

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Speaker 5: team credit Brian Dable. But this is still not a

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Speaker 5: great roster. They're not really blowing anyone away. And we've

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Speaker 5: got the new luck rankings out of Action Network. New

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Speaker 5: York's win loss record is thirty seven percent more lucky

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Speaker 5: than the Ravens right now, as the highest differential in

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Speaker 5: the league this week and so far this season. In

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Speaker 5: those luck rankings, when it's thirty three percent or more,

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Speaker 5: difference fifteen and two against the spread, which goes in

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Speaker 5: the Ravens favor here, So there's a lot of underlying things,

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Speaker 5: things bubbling below the surface that are keeping the Giants afloat.

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Speaker 5: I think it's time for the better team to win

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Speaker 5: out here. I will take the Ravens to cover.

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Speaker 2: Giants this season three and zero straight up. When an

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Speaker 2: underdog this season and you know, you bring up the

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Speaker 2: luck factor, it makes me think back to this feels

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Speaker 2: like centuries ago. But Brian Daball goes for two for

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Speaker 2: the win, and I feel like since then, we've seen

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Speaker 2: so many teams go for two and there's been criticism

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Speaker 2: of the move and not kicking the field goal or

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Speaker 2: the extra point, but Dave Ball kind of sneaks under

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Speaker 2: the rug from earlier in the year going for two

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Speaker 2: and getting that victory over the Titans. Luke, what is

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Speaker 2: your first best bet for us for Week six?

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Speaker 1: So my first one is going to be Bill's minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half at Kansas City at four o'clock

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, which right now, the trendiest trend is Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes as an underdog being undefeated. I'm seeing it everywhere,

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Speaker 1: and to me, it's just one of those trends that

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Speaker 1: I'm just not like I'm taking very grandst excuse me,

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Speaker 1: which right now, Josh Allen is just totally unstoppable. Last season,

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Speaker 1: both games against the Chiefs at Kansas City, he was

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Speaker 1: just as unstoppable, and I really have no reason to

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Speaker 1: think otherwise that the chief can Chiefs can stop him.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday, Bill's dun't blitz, which is going to be Mahomes's.

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Speaker 1: I guess you could say kryptonite if there is one,

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Speaker 1: and it's just a the Bills are the best team,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen's the best quarterback. Not to not that Mahomes

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Speaker 1: is like amazing, but at two and a half based

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Speaker 1: off of last year's two games, and it builds current

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Speaker 1: form where the Chiefs have looked vulnerable in spots this year,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take Bills in minus two and a half.

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Speaker 2: There are so many trends on why Mahomes would be

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Speaker 2: the play or you're just tempted to hammer it now

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Speaker 2: at three, it's moved to two and a half on

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Speaker 2: the FanDuel Sports book thirteen to two and one. Patrick

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Speaker 2: Mahomes when he's not at least a three and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorite lifetime, and that includes situations when he's

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Speaker 2: a dog. You're shaking your head.

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Speaker 1: You're like, don't take the Chiefs, which, like, to me,

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Speaker 1: it's just technically like at two and a half, two

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Speaker 1: and a half to mining line, pick them, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: To me, that's like a coin flip where he's undefeated

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Speaker 1: in coin flips essentially what that's time. If he was

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Speaker 1: undefeated as like a seven point dog or something like that,

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Speaker 1: that would be something, but not buying it fair enough.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, one thing about that thirteen to two and one

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Speaker 5: stat you said, Also, the Bills are one of the two.

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Speaker 5: They're the one that actually covered and beat Kansas City

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Speaker 5: in the spot thirty eight to twenty. I think last

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Speaker 5: year in the regular season wasn't even close. So I

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Speaker 5: like the Bills here as well. If you want to

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Speaker 5: play the Bills money line the sneaky way, you might

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Speaker 5: be able to do that instead of playing the actual

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Speaker 5: money line. I like Josh Allen MVP as a money

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Speaker 5: line proxy here with a much better price on it.

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Speaker 5: If the Bills win this game, they're up one on

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Speaker 5: every team in the AFC, They have a tiebreak win

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Speaker 5: head to head against all three other division leaders, and

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Speaker 5: have a pretty soft scheduled remaining but I had to

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Speaker 5: jump in because my favorite prop of the week will

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Speaker 5: come in this game. There's no line yet, otherwise it

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Speaker 5: would have been one of my official picks today. But

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Speaker 5: Josh Allen give me the over on Josh Allen's rushing yards.

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Speaker 5: If you look at his splits when Alan plays a

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Speaker 5: non playoff team, the Bills are saving his legs. Last year,

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Speaker 5: eleven games like that, five point seven carries for thirty

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Speaker 5: eight yards a game. When they play a team that

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Speaker 5: made the playoffs, in eight games that to nine and

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Speaker 5: a half carries fifty nine yards a game, and three

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Speaker 5: times this season against teams we assume will make the playoffs,

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Speaker 5: nine point seven to fifty eight yards right on Q.

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Speaker 5: So he's scrambling more and they're doing more designed runs.

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Speaker 5: You're seeing them for the big games, and this is

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Speaker 5: the biggest game. So I love the Josh Allen are

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Speaker 5: rushing over. And what would you line that like if

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Speaker 5: you were making a line for it. Yeah, I mean though, yea,

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Speaker 5: his line has been a like forty and a half

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Speaker 5: thirty nine and a half the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 5: I would definitely take the over on that.

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Speaker 3: I think it.

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Speaker 5: Will shift up a little bit but I'll be surprised

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Speaker 5: if it gets passed like forty four and a half.

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Speaker 5: I feel pretty good anything below fifty and it's not

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Speaker 5: going to get that high.

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Speaker 2: Okay, And he's right now plus one seventy five the

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Speaker 2: favorite to Josh Allen to win the MVP. So all

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Speaker 2: plays out what you two are talking about, that number

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Speaker 2: could become even shorter if they handle their business on

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Speaker 2: Sunday afternoon. Dane, first, best bet, what do you got?

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Speaker 4: I told you at the beginning of the show. It's

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Speaker 4: like and they're off, and there's all different kinds of

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Speaker 4: ways to think about them.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: Andon talked about the potential London hangover with his Baltimore play,

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Speaker 4: But my biggest thing is we've.

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Speaker 3: Got third string quarterbacks in action. Guys.

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Speaker 4: I think it's Akham's razor. That's the term that just

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Speaker 4: like the most likely thing. Trust that it's going to happen.

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Speaker 4: So give me the Minnesota Vikings three and a half

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Speaker 4: in Miami against Skyler Thompson. Okay, first of all, it's

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Speaker 4: not even just the Miami offense. This Miami defense is

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Speaker 4: twenty eighth in the league against the pass.

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Speaker 6: They just gave up forty to the Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets,

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Speaker 6: and now Minnesota comes to town with a top ten

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Speaker 6: passing offense and the Jets have no one like Justin Jefferson.

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Speaker 4: I don't think they'll be able to handle him. Jefferson

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Speaker 4: has ten plus catches and one hundred and twenty five

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Speaker 4: plus yards in his last two He's looking to become

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Speaker 4: only the third player in his first three years to

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Speaker 4: have seventeen one hundred yard games.

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Speaker 3: In his first three seasons.

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Speaker 4: This is the kind of passing attack and wide receiver

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Speaker 4: that I do not think Miami will be able to handle.

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Speaker 4: And on the other side, they've got QB three going,

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Speaker 4: you know for them, so I don't see how they

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Speaker 4: can keep up. I like Minnesota in this game. And

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Speaker 4: I also checked the weather report. I'm a big believer

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Speaker 4: that early in the season teams that go down to

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Speaker 4: Miami sometimes get tripped up, and we saw that with

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Speaker 4: the Buffalo Bills. Everybody knows about the ninety plays and

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Speaker 4: the heat and all that, but high seventies in Miami

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Speaker 4: on Sunday, So that is not as much of a

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Speaker 4: factor now as it was early in the season. Quite frankly,

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Speaker 4: I think Minnesota will be able to score just like

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Speaker 4: the Jets did, and I don't trust Skyler Thompson to

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Speaker 4: be able to keep up the route tree with Tyreek

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Speaker 4: Hill and Jalen Waddle, I think might be a little

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Speaker 4: bit different. Give me the vikings, even the laying the

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Speaker 4: number on the road.

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Speaker 2: You know, my favorite part about the ninety plays thing

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Speaker 2: is yet but the other team had to run ninety

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Speaker 2: plays too. I think Luke may have brought that up

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Speaker 2: on a previous show the following week.

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Speaker 6: That is.

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Speaker 2: But that's just the other part of that argument too. Brandon,

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Speaker 2: you're feeling okay about this game quickly? I know that

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Speaker 2: this has changed quite a bit. This was a hot

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Speaker 2: read or a look ahead that you had, but things

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Speaker 2: have obviously changed. Quarterback.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this was I think our look ahead last week,

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Speaker 5: and obviously Teddy Bridgewater went out the first play of

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Speaker 5: the game from Miami's offense, so we did not see

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Speaker 5: Skyler Thompson coming to play. I'm not sure many people

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Speaker 5: even heard of Skyler Thompson before last week, unless you

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Speaker 5: watched a little Kansas State football last year. So I'm

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Speaker 5: a little I'm torn on this one. I would love

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Speaker 5: to buy out of our Miami minus one position, which

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Speaker 5: obviously is a pretty rough number we're getting. Now, that's

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Speaker 5: the risk with the look ahead. Sometimes you're going to

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Speaker 5: get the injury bug that bites you.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know.

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Speaker 5: I'm a Vikings fan, so if the way we're getting

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Speaker 5: Beenen is a freebie Vikings win instead, I guess I'll

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Speaker 5: have to live with that.

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Speaker 2: There you go, all right, let's pick it up. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to best bet number two. Back to you, Brandon.

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Speaker 5: All Right, I'm gonna go with the Seattle Seahawks plus

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Speaker 5: three at home facing the Arizona Cardinals. I think this

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Speaker 5: line is ludicrous. The Seahawks are home underdogs to the Cardinals.

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Speaker 5: The Seahawks are the number one DVOA offense so far

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Speaker 5: in football through five games, which is not nothing, and

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Speaker 5: I think we're kind of treating it like it is nothing.

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Speaker 5: I think we all decided Seattle wasn't gonna be good

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Speaker 5: this year. I certainly did. I took the under five

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Speaker 5: and a half wins going to the season. This is

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Speaker 5: not the team we thought was coming. Gino Smith is

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Speaker 5: balling right now. If you look at an advanced metric

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Speaker 5: like EPA and completion overexpected, it's pad mahomes and Josh Allen,

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Speaker 5: the guys we.

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Speaker 3: All agree are the two best players in football.

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Speaker 5: And then Gino Smith number three had a Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 5: headed Jalen Hurtz head of these other great quarterbacks. Gino

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Speaker 5: is lighting it up deep. The Seahawks are number one

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Speaker 5: in passing dv away. The teams right after them are

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Speaker 5: the Ravens, the Bills, the Chiefs, the Dolphins. These mighty

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Speaker 5: passing attacks. The Seahawks are head of all of them.

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Speaker 5: They're hitting metcalf and lock it down the field. And

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Speaker 5: by the way, as well as Seattle's offense is playing,

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Speaker 5: I mentioned Gino Smith number three in that metric. Guess

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Speaker 5: we're Kyler Murray ranks. He's number twenty eight. There are

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Speaker 5: thirty two teams, by the way, and some really bad

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Speaker 5: quarterbacks out there. Is not playing well. He's hurting without

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Speaker 5: DeAndre Hopkins. I just think Seattle is a much better

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Speaker 5: team right now. They're clearly better at a receiver. Their

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Speaker 5: young offensive line has been really good and is much better.

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Speaker 5: They have the better special teams. They have the better

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Speaker 5: coach here. You guys know how I love Cliff Kingsbury,

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Speaker 5: and right now they have the far better quarterback. You

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Speaker 5: know Smith is playing better football than Kyler Murray. He

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Speaker 5: just is right now. Offense is more predictive, offense is

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Speaker 5: more sticky. Seattle's defense not good, not going to make

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Speaker 5: the case for it, but Arizona's defense has really not

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Speaker 5: been that much better, especially at passing d and only

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Speaker 5: one of these teams is really built to take advantage

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Speaker 5: of that right now. That's Seattle. So Kingsbury my dude.

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Speaker 5: Thirty six percent against the spread as a favorite, Pete

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Speaker 5: Carroll sixty one percent cover rate as an underdog, sixty

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Speaker 5: three percent after a loss.

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Speaker 3: I just think the wrong team is favorite here. Seattle

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Speaker 3: still has.

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Speaker 5: A home field advantage. Give me the twelfth man. I'll

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Speaker 5: take Seattle to cover the three. I'll take the money line,

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Speaker 5: and I'm on Seattle Island. I'm playing the over for

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Speaker 5: the season win total. I'm playing the playoff and division

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Speaker 5: odds too. This Seattle team is good.

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Speaker 2: WHOA a couple of whoppers in there from Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 2: but his point is valid. On being home divisional game,

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Speaker 2: they're a home dog, and since twenty twenty, teams in

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Speaker 2: that spot, which is Seattle, they're hitting. They're covering the

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Speaker 2: spread at a fifty eight percent clip. So that is

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Speaker 2: what's going on with the Seahawks. But Brandon took it

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Speaker 2: like ten steps further. He loves this team.

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Speaker 3: That's what I do.

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Speaker 2: Hey, it's good, it's actionable. That's what we're here for. Luke,

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Speaker 2: what's your second pick? So my second pick?

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Speaker 3: Is he going to be the Cardinals?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 1: I mean, let's go and if Kyler's been draugling, you

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Speaker 1: know what the best recipe for fixing an awful defense?

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Speaker 2: Exactly?

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Seahawks defense is on pace to be

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Speaker 1: legit like historically like the worst defense in history of

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Speaker 1: the league. It's I mean, and Saints put up thirty plus,

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Speaker 1: Lions put up thirty plus the week before, Jared Goff,

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Speaker 1: Andy Dalton put up thirty plus. So and it's been

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Speaker 1: a consistent theme for me to fade this defense on

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Speaker 1: this podcast so far. But last week the Seattle offense, yes,

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Speaker 1: they put up a lot of points, but it was

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Speaker 1: very very much based off of the big play. And

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Speaker 1: outside of these big plays that the Seahawks had last week,

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Speaker 1: they weren't, like, they weren't moving the ball with a

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Speaker 1: success rate that the score implies to me. And then

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Speaker 1: you have the Cardinals defense that I think perceptionally is poor,

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Speaker 1: but they held the Eagles in check. And this Cardinals

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Speaker 1: defense is top ten in terms of blitz rate this season,

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Speaker 1: which when Gino struggles it is when he's getting pressure.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm the biggest fan of Gino right now.

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Speaker 1: I think I've watched the clips of the throws that

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Speaker 1: he was making last week like a hundred times. But

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Speaker 1: to me, I'm just gonna take the Carls Cardinals since

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Speaker 1: last year ten to one on the road money line

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Speaker 1: against to spread, which I know Cliff Kingsbury Brandna loves

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Speaker 1: to fade. I don't disagree, but I'd rather fade the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks defense in a I guess you could say make

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Speaker 1: right spot for a Cardinals team that is ten to

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Speaker 1: one on the road the last two years.

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Speaker 5: I'll say this Seattle, like you said Luke. Number one

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Speaker 5: explosive pass plays. The Cardinals are the thirty first ranked

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Speaker 5: in allowing explosive pass plays. So if that's the only

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Speaker 5: way you're going to score, is a pretty good defense

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Speaker 5: for them to be playing as well. So I don't know,

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Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be a high scoring, fun game.

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Speaker 5: Seattle's defense might be the perfect elixir, But I'm not

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Speaker 5: that worried about bubble screen Cliff Kingsbury all game long.

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Speaker 5: You gotta actually have a real offense to be a defense, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, Dan, get us out of this division, get us

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Speaker 2: out of the NFC West, please, what do you have?

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Speaker 2: Fair enough?

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Speaker 4: I will say this part of me wants to change

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Speaker 4: my pick to like over in that game. These guys

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Speaker 4: are basically just saying that both of these defenses can

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Speaker 4: be had. But I'm actually going to Monday Night, all right,

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Speaker 4: give me the Chargers. He's actually started at five and

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Speaker 4: a half and is now down to four and a half,

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Speaker 4: So I'm going against the movement, and I acknowledge this.

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Speaker 3: Brandon.

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Speaker 4: Before I talked about how Gino Smith is playing really well,

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Speaker 4: you know what else is playing better than He's playing

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Speaker 4: better than the Seahawks former quarterback Russell Wilson, who is

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Speaker 4: twenty third in the NFL when it comes to quarterback rating.

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Speaker 4: They are still figuring it out in Denver. There's Nathaniel

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Speaker 4: can Hackett making game management decisions and it looks like

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Speaker 4: he doesn't really have chemistry yet with Sutton and Judy.

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Speaker 4: They've lost Javonte Williams. This is the team that is

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Speaker 4: now thirty first in the NFL in terms of points

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Speaker 4: per game, fifteen points per game they're putting up, and

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Speaker 4: quite frankly, that's.

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Speaker 3: Not going to be enough to keep up with Justin.

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Speaker 4: Herbert and the Chargers. Herbert is you know, he's stole

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Speaker 4: more than three touchdown passes in his last four games

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Speaker 4: against the division. In two games on Monday Night Football,

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Speaker 4: he has seven touchdowns, zero interceptions. I just see the

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Speaker 4: Chargers as a far more dynamic offense. Denver is still

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Speaker 4: trying to figure it out. For the first time this

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Speaker 4: season since Week one. We may see Keenan Allen back

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Speaker 4: in this game. We don't have the full practice reports

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Speaker 4: yet because it is the Monday Night football game, but

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Speaker 4: a lot of people are saying it is trending in

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Speaker 4: that direction. I think that helps with the respected kind

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Speaker 4: of secondary of Denver. But quite frankly, if Denver is

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Speaker 4: gonna put up fifteen, I expect, even against a good

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Speaker 4: Denver defense, I expect the Chargers to get into the

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Speaker 4: twenties and that's enough to cover the spread. So give

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Speaker 4: me the Chargers at home against the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we got to find out too. For Ross is right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, he could be healthy and not be right.

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Speaker 2: I acknowledge that too, but a shoulder injury doesn't help either.

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Speaker 2: But Sackett said he was a limited participant Thursday, and

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Speaker 2: sort of off Dane's point, I would suggest folks to

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Speaker 2: check those reports on Saturday. I know you might be

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Speaker 2: out and about doing stuff, but anything that comes out

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Speaker 2: Saturday from a hiccup in practice or something of the

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Speaker 2: like line movement can occur.

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Speaker 1: Because of that, it's legit in saying that Broncos are

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Speaker 1: on Front Time TV again.

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Speaker 2: It's oh, it's it's not ending anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: There's more they've had, Like I think this will be

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Speaker 1: like the fifth primetime game in six weeks or four.

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Speaker 1: It's wild and Russ might just not be good or

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Speaker 1: like everyone wanting to like, quote unquote let Russ cook

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Speaker 1: in Seattle, like MI just be like the Seahawks knew

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Speaker 1: like he wasn't capable of cooking and was hiding it

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Speaker 1: this entire time.

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Speaker 2: Dane clearly can't get enough. He is in for his

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Speaker 2: best bet to take this all in. So good news

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Speaker 2: is their next primetime game is not till December eleventh,

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Speaker 2: so we get a Broncos break from national TV. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to our final best bets for Week six. Brandon

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Speaker 2: start us off.

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Speaker 5: All right, I'm gonna take the Jacksonville Jaguars on the

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Speaker 5: road plus one and a half against the Colts. The

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Speaker 5: Jaguars are underdogs against the team that one month ago

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Speaker 5: they shut out twenty four to nothing, and it wasn't

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Speaker 5: even that close. The Colts in that game had two

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Speaker 5: hundred and eighteen yards of offense. They had nine first downs.

435
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 5: You can get nine first downs on a drive. They

436
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 5: had for the game, they had under twenty two minutes

437
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 5: of possession. The Colts stink. They are dead last in

438
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 5: DVA on offense.

439
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: The Colts are terrible. They're not good.

440
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 5: Why are they home favorites here? Well, part of the

441
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 5: reason is because we know the thing. How when the

442
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 5: Indianapolis goes to Jacksonville, the Jaguars win, Right, we know

443
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 5: that they have eight wins in a row out in Indianapolis.

444
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 5: It's a different story at home. The Colts have won

445
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 5: during that same stretch eight out of nine against Jacksonville

446
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 5: since September of twenty fourteen, only one road victory out

447
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 5: of the last seventeen games. So that gave me pause

448
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 5: here because I think the Jaguars are clearly the better team,

449
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 5: but that one stat alone is like, Man, can I

450
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 5: really go against the road trend? I can't because here's

451
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 5: what I noticed when it dug a little bit more

452
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 5: into it. The Colts have been by far the better

453
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 5: team that whole stretch, right, the Jaguars are terrible. So

454
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,719
Speaker 5: part of it is, Okay, they're winning, but we're not

455
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 5: a winning podcast. We're in against the spread podcast. We

456
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 5: care about cover. So let's look at that during that stretch.

457
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 5: So since October twenty fifteen, the Colts have covered one

458
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 5: time in the last fifteen games against the Jaguars, one

459
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 5: cover out of fifteen times. And just in case you

460
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 5: need some perspective on that, so the Jags during that

461
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 5: stretch thirteen to one and one against the spread, covering

462
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 5: ninety three percent by eleven points a game. Jacksonville against

463
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 5: literally every other team in the world in that same

464
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 5: stretch thirty five and sixty three against the spread, covering

465
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 5: thirty six percent of the time. The Jaguars, morbid awful

466
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 5: franchise sucks against the entire world, but cannot stop covering

467
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 5: against the Colts. Indianapolis turns it over. They have the

468
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 5: highest turnover rate in the league. The Jaguars defense has

469
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 5: the highest turnover rate forced in the league. As long

470
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 5: as they get a couple turnovers and Matt Ryan to

471
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 5: the rescue on that one.

472
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 3: I like Jacksonville here.

473
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 5: They've been losing lately, but the defense has been still

474
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 5: great and that should be enough here.

475
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 3: I will take the Jags to cover and.

476
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 5: If you like it in a division battle that's still

477
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,360
Speaker 5: kind of up for grabs here, I have to play

478
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 5: the Jacksonville division as well.

479
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 3: Plus two fifty on that number.

480
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: I think, to me, this is like the most interesting

481
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 1: line of the weekend, where which ironically you have a

482
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: Jacksonville team coming off a loss versus a Texans team

483
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 1: that beat them eight times in a row. I think

484
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: now they're going to the Cults playing a team that

485
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: they've beaten like eight times in a row.

486
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 3: Where I think it My only.

487
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 1: Hesitation because this was like probably the last one that

488
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: I almost included the Jags, is that this thing opened

489
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 1: at I think it was like seven and now it's

490
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: down to like one and a half, which is a

491
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: crazy move, but which I don't know if that was

492
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: open like base off like months ago.

493
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's the preseason line.

494
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 5: It was two and a half or three on Sunday,

495
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 5: so it is still dropping, but it's been dropping.

496
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 3: Through the weeks as well. Yeah, I love this one too.

497
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: Okay, love it. We're just gonna keep ripping on the Colts.

498
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: I mean the second one of Brandon's like second bullet

499
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 2: points in that that soliloquy he just delivered as the

500
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: Colt stink and I just laughed at that. That was funny.

501
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 2: It's always okay. I think to mix in a little

502
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 2: hatred in the pick too.

503
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 3: Better watch out though, Brandon.

504
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 4: They make it some special teams plays. You're talking about

505
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 4: offense defense? Was it now all of a sudden, I

506
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 4: get to get two pun blocks for return or something

507
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 4: like that.

508
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 2: According to the Action app, the money is coming in

509
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 2: on Indy. So so Brandon is going against the people

510
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: as of now. Uh Luke Swayne, you were third best

511
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 2: bet for week six.

512
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be going against the Patriots and taking

513
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: the Browns minus two and a half on Sunday, which

514
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: last week we were on the Pats and I said

515
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 1: on this podcast the Patriots offense was gonna look a

516
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: lot better than they actually are. Where the Seahawks have

517
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 1: the worst defense. The lines are not far behind, and

518
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: you had you couldn't have had a better matchup for

519
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 1: Zappi to start in his first game against a Lion's offense.

520
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: I'm where I know. I know the Browns rushing defense

521
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: hasn't been great, and Eckler ran for one hundred and

522
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 1: seventy plus yards last weekend against the Browns, but he

523
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: ran for one hundred and seventy yards against the Browns

524
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: while that defense had to worry about Justin Herbert too.

525
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: And when you have Bailly Zappi in his second start,

526
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: which as he gets more starts, more teams are going

527
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 1: to have film on him to prepare for a rookie

528
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 1: quarterback that was drafted I think the fourth round. And

529
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 1: I think there is a trend, and I hate saying

530
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: I think there is a trend. I just couldn't find

531
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: it on Twitter where rookie backup quarterbacks in their second

532
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: start are definitely not profitable. And when a team can

533
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: focus on the run and not have to worry about

534
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 1: a guy like Justin Herbert and let Bailey Zappy try

535
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 1: and beat you, I'm all for And I just don't

536
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 1: see anything containing this Browns run game. So I'll take

537
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 1: the Browns minus two and a half and fading a

538
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: Patriots team coming off a win that I think looks

539
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: a lot better on paper than it actually was and

540
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,959
Speaker 1: more of a Lion's defense just being awful.

541
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 2: Emmen Abrams of Action Network puts out a doc. He's

542
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: got some great news and notes and nuggets for trends.

543
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 2: In one of the trends he has listed here sort

544
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: of comes it goes against what you're talking about, though,

545
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: it says backup quarterbacks. There's a backup quarterback in Zappi

546
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: playing this week for the Patriots. It's just the eighth

547
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: time they've done that in the last decade. Four and

548
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 2: three straight up, five and two against the spread. All right,

549
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 2: dam what do you have? Flast pick?

550
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna co sign with Luke over here. I too,

551
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 4: am on the Browns at home lay in the two

552
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 4: and a half. He said a lot of things that

553
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 4: I thought the idea that Zappi may have overperformed but

554
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,479
Speaker 4: turned into a pumpkin now that it is Halloween season.

555
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: Right.

556
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 4: He did face that Lions defense, which I think is

557
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 4: much different than Cleveland on the road. You know, I

558
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 4: also believe this idea that you got tape on him,

559
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 4: so it'll be a little bit different. That's the New

560
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 4: England offense side. But when the other side of the

561
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 4: ball is there, I mean, quite frankly, to me, this

562
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 4: is the number one rushing off in the NFL against

563
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 4: the bottom third rushing defense, and to me, that is sustainable.

564
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 4: That's something I can hang my hat on, whereas Bailly

565
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 4: Zappi on the road is certainly not. The one thing

566
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 4: that I know in this game.

567
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 3: Is Nick Chubb.

568
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 4: Nick Chubb is the only player in the NFL with

569
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 4: one hundred and more scrimmage yards in every week of

570
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 4: the NFL season so far. If he does it again,

571
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 4: which I believe he will, he'll be the first player

572
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 4: since twenty eighteen to have.

573
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 3: It in the first six.

574
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 4: Weeks of the season. So to me, there's so many

575
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 4: reasons to still be unsure about Bailly Zapi and the Patriots,

576
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 4: But the one thing I can hang my hat on

577
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 4: is the run game Cleveland. I think it'll be enough

578
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 4: to pretty much punch New England in the mouth and

579
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 4: cover a field goal.

580
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 3: So give me Cleveland.

581
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: Lay in the two and a half like roll the

582
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: box and let Zabby beat you right right, you can't.

583
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 2: Can't fifty three everyone who's dressed all of them.

584
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 4: And if Bailey's ZAPPI can god downfield to what Jacoby

585
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 4: Myers and Nelson Agalore, I will tip my cap to you,

586
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 4: which guess what, I don't think that's gonna happen.

587
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you can't do that with Justin Herbert, like

588
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: you just can't, which is why I actually ran for

589
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy yards.

590
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 2: But Luke, the first time Luke's going against the Pats

591
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 2: this year, it's weird to hear it's weird to hear it. Key,

592
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: they're not good.

593
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 1: That's like the thing that's like a thing that like

594
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: going into the season, like past shutout. There's probably a

595
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 1: shutout trend somewhere, but like the past week's great last week,

596
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,199
Speaker 1: but they're still not good, like which I've been harping,

597
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: and yes, and I have a twenty eight to three

598
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: tattoo like which places I probably can't say on this podcast,

599
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: but like they just this year.

600
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 4: I'll trust Nick Chubb. Let's put it that way.

601
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 3: That's what it comes down to.

602
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: Kevin Stefanski eight and sixteen against the spread as a

603
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 2: favorite in his career as Brown's coach. So that's that's

604
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 2: it for best bets. Before we wrap the show, though,

605
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 2: we'll take a quick look at next week's lines for

606
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: Week seven and see if you like any numbers now

607
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 2: before they adjust. This is normally Brandon Anderson's wheelhouse, and

608
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 2: I had not read this yet until he popped it

609
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 2: in and like, no surprise here, but I kind of

610
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 2: gasped to myself and I saw this number, Brandon, why

611
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:07,479
Speaker 2: don't you tell us what it is?

612
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 5: Well, Dane and Luke, you guys are both gonna hate

613
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 5: this one. I am taking the Seahawks plus seven and

614
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 5: a half at the Chargers next weekend. So Luke, you

615
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 5: think the Seahawks are going down this week? Dane you

616
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 5: like the Charges to win big on Monday. I'm against

617
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 5: both of those spots. So I think this goes the

618
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 5: other direction. And I want this one of the seven

619
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 5: and a half because I expect the line to drop

620
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 5: and I'm going to lose the hook and lose a

621
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 5: key number along the way.

622
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 3: If so. So, here's how I see it. Short week

623
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 3: for the Chargers after.

624
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 5: Monday Night, and I actually think Monday Night is a

625
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 5: tough spot there are a lot of trends that favor

626
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 5: Denver in that spot luck rankings. Again, there are looking

627
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 5: at Denver if they lose or struggle a little bit there.

628
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 3: And if I'm right.

629
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 5: About the Seahawks, my Seahawks, then I think we started

630
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 5: to take the Seahawks a little bit seriously. Six weeks

631
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 5: of great offense and this line starts to move a

632
00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 5: little bit. I want the hook. And remember this is

633
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 5: against the Chargers, so it's at the Chargers. I did

634
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 5: air quotes for those of you just listening. The Chargers

635
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 5: don't have a home field advantage.

636
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 3: We know this.

637
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 5: There's gonna be more Seahawks fans at that game than

638
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 5: there are Chargers fans, So that means this line is

639
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 5: basically just a true line. We're getting more than a

640
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 5: touchdown of true line with no real home field advantage.

641
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 3: For the Seahawks. I just think that's too high.

642
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 5: And we have the number one DVAA offense for Seattle,

643
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 5: which means that even if the Chargers just put up

644
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 5: a giant number on Seattle, which they might, the back

645
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 5: door will be open and Seattle's great offense can come

646
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 5: through the back door. All we gotta do is get

647
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 5: it to under seven and a half. Chargers have lots

648
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 5: of injuries. We talked about that. I don't know about

649
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 5: Keenan Allen Weather. He'll play Joey Bosa and j C.

650
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 5: Jackson on defense. Herbert still injured with those rib injuries.

651
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 5: Rayshawn Slater, the star tackle is out. The total is

652
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 5: rising on this one. Dan, you talked about playing the

653
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 5: over for Seattle game this week. Already have fifty three

654
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 5: next week, and I think it's going to keep on going.

655
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 5: So at first they maybe hesitate. Okay, well, if the

656
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 5: total gets to like fifty five, then seven and a

657
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 5: half to cover is actually not that big of a line.

658
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 5: But I looked it up in our Action Lab system.

659
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 5: If the total is fifty five or higher, underdogs of

660
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 5: more than a touchdown are fifteen and six against the spread.

661
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 5: So basically saying, hey, it's a shootout. Either one of

662
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 5: these teams can hang a huge number. I think Seattle

663
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 5: could hang huge number. They've won three of the last

664
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 5: five in that spot outright for the underdog, So I

665
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,959
Speaker 5: like the Seahawks. I am on Seattle Island. I'm going

666
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 5: to die on this ship. Put me out to see

667
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 5: and give me the Seahawks plus seven and a half.

668
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: That's a good trend.

669
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: Really, that trend is like very much like when the

670
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: total's high, like both teams are capable they can score

671
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: where win its slow. It's like the Bears tonight. But however,

672
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: might like break this single game record for passing.

673
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 3: You might, Oh, I won't deny that one. All I'm

674
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 3: saying is.

675
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 4: Just make sure we keep the clip of Brandon saying

676
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 4: my Seahawks so we can play it back on December.

677
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: Looking at the Fandels sportsbook, you can get the Seahawks

678
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs at plus ten sixty. And you

679
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: also like their division odds as well going into the week.

680
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 5: Okay, where we are, We're are like thirty to one

681
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 5: plus twenty five hundred, right, just shout out.

682
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 3: So again, let's be very clear here.

683
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 5: I'm not telling you Seattle Seahawks are going to make

684
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 5: the playoffs. Go ahead and clip that one too. I'm

685
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 5: telling you the Seattle Seahawks should make the playoffs more

686
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 5: than one in twenty five times. The Niners are all

687
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 5: banged up, The Rams are not good this year. I

688
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,239
Speaker 5: think we've all watched that. Nobody thinks the Cardinals are

689
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 5: good even if you like them in the game. It's

690
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 5: a very open division this I keep taking these long

691
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 5: shot flyers on these kind of weird, garbage sort of

692
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 5: teams because teams like the Jaguars, who might be in

693
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 5: the mix now, the Seahawks, maybe the Falcons.

694
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: It's a parody year.

695
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 5: We're close that the great teams aren't as good this

696
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 5: year and the bad teams aren't quite as bad. Weird

697
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 5: stuff is coming, and I just think some of these

698
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 5: weird teams that are kind of hanging around are going

699
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 5: to end up actually paying off for us.

700
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: Plus in that game with the Chargers game, you'll get

701
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 2: USC Pete Carroll fans that'll want to come see Pete.

702
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: So if they win the division, like a Gino MVP

703
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: ticket should.

704
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 3: Be, we don't even give me.

705
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 5: So last Monday, so about a week and a half ago,

706
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 5: I was like, you know what, hey, I want to

707
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 5: look for Gino Smith Comeback Player of the Year award?

708
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 5: Can I bet on that? And I could not find

709
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 5: that on any book anywhere. I was like, give me

710
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 5: the Gino Smith long shot and then the books added

711
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 5: it and within like two hours it got nuked. And

712
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 5: he is now the second favorite at every book, so

713
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 5: I think comeback.

714
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: Player of the Year is probably the real ticket there.

715
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: But I don't know. Seattle.

716
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 5: If Gino keeps doing this all year, he's going to

717
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 5: win something.

718
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 4: Is also the ninth choice still for the Rookie of

719
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 4: the Year, and I think like fourteen fifteen to one,

720
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 4: and he now has that backfield all to himself. In

721
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 4: what You Know, Brandon says, continue to be a high

722
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:01,479
Speaker 4: scoring offense.

723
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 5: I feel and I feel the love Seattle island fallas

724
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 5: come on out, the water is warm.

725
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 2: This episode needs to end. We've been going to top

726
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 2: the Seattle Seahawks. To recap the picks for Week six,

727
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson on Ravens minus six, Seattle plus three, Jacksonville

728
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. Luke Swayin is on the

729
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 2: Bills minus two and a half. He also likes the

730
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 2: Cardinals going against Brandon Cardinals minus three, and his final

731
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 2: pick is Cleveland minus two and a half. Dave Martinez

732
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 2: on the Vikings at Miami minus three and a half,

733
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 2: Chargers minus four and a half on Monday Night, and

734
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 2: he is also with Luke on Cleveland minus two and

735
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: a half. That will do it. Here are the Action

736
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 2: Network podcast for our NFL Week six Best Bets. Thanks

737
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 2: to Brandon Anderson, Luke Swayin, Dave Martinez for joining us today.

738
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 2: I'm your host, Brendan last Jean. Best of luck with

739
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: your bets all weekend long, everybody, We will see you

740
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 2: again Monday morning for the recap show right here on

741
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast

742
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: Sting Sting, Sting, Stinging,