Speaker 1: Happy New Year.
Speaker 2: It's Bills by the Numbers, where we let the stats
Speaker 2: tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented by
Speaker 2: a fanuel make every moment more with the playoffs on
Speaker 2: the horizon. What is Buffalo's most likely wild card matchup?
Speaker 2: Which AFC playoff opponents are the best and worst matchups
Speaker 2: for the Bills? And will have our one burning question?
Speaker 2: Time to settle up happy twenty twenty six Bills Mafia
Speaker 2: Glader along for the ride here on Bills by the Numbers,
Speaker 2: Bills Wall of Famers, Steet Tasker, Bill's play by play
Speaker 2: man Chris Brown here with you and the Bill's path
Speaker 2: to the playoffs will be a bit different this season,
Speaker 2: as it will not include a home game, at least
Speaker 2: here at the outset. Each of the previous five seasons,
Speaker 2: Buffalo began the playoffs with a home game by virtue
Speaker 2: of their division winning seasons. The last time they played
Speaker 2: a road playoff game was in twenty nineteen, when a
Speaker 2: sixteen to seven lead at Houston evaporated in an overtime
Speaker 2: loss to the Texans twenty two to nineteen. Buffalo has
Speaker 2: not won a road playoff game since the nineteen ninety
Speaker 2: two AFC Title Game in Miami. We all know it's
Speaker 2: one game at a time, but Buffalo will need to
Speaker 2: win three road games in a row to advance to
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Assess for me, if you will, mister Tasker,
Speaker 2: the path this team has to take to get to
Speaker 2: the Promised Land.
Speaker 3: It's a big ask. There's no question about it. Going
Speaker 3: on the road and beating three really good football teams.
Speaker 3: It's just it's a real, really rare feat. It's hard
Speaker 3: to go into a really good football team's house and
Speaker 3: beat them. We know that from being here in High Mark.
Speaker 3: So to do it three times to get to the
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, that's that's a rough go. But yeah, you
Speaker 3: do match up well with You're not gonna be afraid
Speaker 3: of any of the matchups now, barring any further injuries
Speaker 3: than they've already sustained throughout the course of the regular season,
Speaker 3: barring anymore that You're gonna like your matchup with any
Speaker 3: of the teams left in the tournament, no question about it.
Speaker 3: You're gonna feel good about it. Josh gives you an edge.
Speaker 3: Your running game gives you an edge. Your offensive line
Speaker 3: is good. Your defense has found ways in games here
Speaker 3: in the last month to be very effective, very effective,
Speaker 3: stifling almost so if you get into on these road games,
Speaker 3: the one thing that you can't do, you cannot turn
Speaker 3: the ball over. Even Jacksonville in their resurgence here of late,
Speaker 3: their defense is playing great.
Speaker 4: Is doing their number one defense.
Speaker 1: They've got the ball.
Speaker 3: They got thirty takeaways over the last stretch. So it's
Speaker 3: if you don't turn it over. The Bills have good
Speaker 3: enough players and a good enough roster to beat any
Speaker 3: of these teams.
Speaker 2: Your team in ninety two had to go on the road.
Speaker 2: Now was one game two you won two? Yeah, I
Speaker 2: believe you're won two road playoff games that you lost
Speaker 2: the division and you had to go to Pittsburgh and
Speaker 2: then Miami Pittsburgh to advance to the Super Bowl. The
Speaker 2: playoff pool was smaller. You only had to win two
Speaker 2: road games. Now you got to win three.
Speaker 3: That team won the playoff game in Pittsburgh with backup
Speaker 3: quarterback Frank Wright.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's twenty to six. It can be done.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is possible. While at the time of this taping,
Speaker 2: the playoff seedings are not yet set, we do have
Speaker 2: the likelihood of where the Bills will end up courtesy
Speaker 2: of next gen stats, there is currently, prior.
Speaker 1: To Week eighteen play a thirty.
Speaker 2: Eight percent chance that Buffalo will be the number six seed.
Speaker 2: To create that outcome, the Texans and Bills would win
Speaker 2: and the Chargers would lose. La Is at Denver this weekend,
Speaker 2: and head coach Jim Harbaugh has already said they will
Speaker 2: not start quarterback Justin Herbert as they are choosing rest
Speaker 2: over in proving their seeding. That would likely send the
Speaker 2: Bills to Jacksonville, a team Buffalo has never beaten in
Speaker 2: the postseason. They are zero to two lifetime, having lost
Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety six thirty to twenty seven in Jim
Speaker 2: Kelly's last game of his career, and in Sean McDermott's
Speaker 2: first season ten to three when the Bills broke the
Speaker 2: seventeen year playoff drought. Jaguars are a hot team right now, winners.
Speaker 1: Of seven straight.
Speaker 2: This would pit the number one rushing team in actually
Speaker 2: the number two rushing team in the league. Let me
Speaker 2: correct that, because Baltimore has overtaken Buffalo the number two
Speaker 2: rushing team in the league against the number one rush
Speaker 2: defense in football. Jacksonville also second in takeaways. As Steve
Speaker 2: mentioned this season, with thirty through seventeen games. Your thoughts
Speaker 2: on that potential matchup.
Speaker 3: I'm okay with any of them going to Jacksonville. The
Speaker 3: weather will be good. It's a good track. They have
Speaker 3: got a great field. It's outdoors, it'll be honey warm.
Speaker 3: It'll be a refreshing trip for these guys to go
Speaker 3: down there. As crazy as that sounds, you get off
Speaker 3: the plane down in Florida and you just soak it in. Man,
Speaker 3: it feels good. It feels like and too because it
Speaker 3: feels good for the body. It feels great. Because I
Speaker 3: was laughing. We used to practice outside in it. You know,
Speaker 3: they're they're got the fieldhouse now and it's very nice.
Speaker 3: It used to feel like you were playing almost with
Speaker 3: no uniform on. It's like you were nude.
Speaker 4: It was because you were had to bundle up and
Speaker 4: practice up here.
Speaker 1: And you practice up.
Speaker 3: Here, you've got everything, everything, piece of clothing in your
Speaker 3: locker you're wearing, and you go out and practice like that,
Speaker 3: sweatpants like you've seen.
Speaker 4: You've seen Jordan Phillips.
Speaker 1: And where's this winter coat with a hood?
Speaker 4: That's what you do.
Speaker 3: So think about doing that and then going down with
Speaker 3: nothing but a t shirt on under your paths, let's go.
Speaker 3: It feels great. It really feels like a lot of fun.
Speaker 3: And so that's Jacksonville. And you know, you're always gonna
Speaker 3: play a good team in the playoffs no matter what
Speaker 3: you you. It's about the match. And I like the
Speaker 3: Bills chances against teams who don't play against this quarterback
Speaker 3: very often. I like it so and I'm not saying
Speaker 3: we're going to absolutely go down there because they're playing
Speaker 3: really well right now. In their defense is their strong point,
Speaker 3: and that's the problem for them. It's a little bit
Speaker 3: like the Atlanta team, and it's a little bit like
Speaker 3: the Cleveland Team's a little bit like those teams that
Speaker 3: have that defense. The Houston team, they hang their hat
Speaker 3: on their defense and their offense is do it now.
Speaker 3: Their offense has played well. But you know, you can't
Speaker 3: be there's no matchup in this tournament any of these
Speaker 3: teams are ever going to be afraid of.
Speaker 2: I do like the fact that the Jaguars have to
Speaker 2: play to win this week because they need to win
Speaker 2: in Week eight team to hold off Houston for the
Speaker 2: AFC South Division title. By staying a game ahead of them,
Speaker 2: Jacksonville would lose a tiebreaker to the Texans if they
Speaker 2: finish with the same one loss record, and Houston would
Speaker 2: take the AFC South. Now, look, they're playing the Titans,
Speaker 2: so the game might be decided by halftime and they
Speaker 2: can pull their starters then, But I like that Jacksonville
Speaker 2: has to play to win that game. And as we've said,
Speaker 2: long winning streaks are hard to maintain, and the Jags
Speaker 2: have won seven in a row. Defensively, they cannot get
Speaker 2: off the field on third down, and their pass rush
Speaker 2: for whatever reason, has not been as good as it's
Speaker 2: been in the years past. I think it's a winnable
Speaker 2: game for Buffalo, but Jacksonville, for some strange reason, has
Speaker 2: proven to be a difficult place for the Bills to
Speaker 2: score points. Everyone remembers that weird nine to six game
Speaker 2: Buffalo lost in twenty twenty one to the Urban Meyer
Speaker 2: coach Jaguars.
Speaker 1: They've got to rise.
Speaker 2: Above that and play solid three phase football. The next
Speaker 2: most likely landing spot for the Bills is the seventh
Speaker 2: seed according to Next Gen Stats at thirty five percent.
Speaker 2: Only the Chargers have a greater chance of finishing in
Speaker 2: the seventh hole at fifty one percent. A seven seed
Speaker 2: finish with likely send the Bills to New England for
Speaker 2: the wild card round. The Bills split with the Patriots,
Speaker 2: with both teams winning on the road in one possession outcomes.
Speaker 2: New England twenty three to twenty on a last second
Speaker 2: field goal. In Week five, Buffalo thirty five thirty one
Speaker 2: in a comeback from twenty one points down to match
Speaker 2: their largest road comeback in team history. In Week fifteen,
Speaker 2: New England has sustained a few more injuries of late.
Speaker 2: Mac Hollins joined Milton Williams, Kiris Tonga and Joshua Farmer,
Speaker 2: all defensive linemen on injured reserve. They're hoping to get
Speaker 2: left tackle Will Campbell back. He did not play in
Speaker 2: the week fifteen meeting against Buffalo. What can be said
Speaker 2: about playing a division opponent a third time in a season?
Speaker 2: You've done it, your team's did it with Miami.
Speaker 3: It's certainly you feel better about it now that you split.
Speaker 3: Even if you would have beaten them twice, you'd be like,
Speaker 3: you know, hard to beat a team. It's hard to
Speaker 3: beat a team three times, having split with them both
Speaker 3: one possession games. Remember the game in week of fifteen.
Speaker 1: Was it?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 1: That was a comeback game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, unbelievable comeback by the Bills. But you know, and
Speaker 3: it's hard. It's hard to get up on top of
Speaker 3: a team in their own building. Yeah, I don't know
Speaker 3: what I would feel about that. Certainly the Patriots. I mean,
Speaker 3: they're as hated arrival as the Bills have in the
Speaker 3: current point in history, and it's true for a lot
Speaker 3: of teams around the league. But man, I don't know
Speaker 3: that they're playing an extremely high level offensively. Drake May
Speaker 3: is just as efficient as he can be. Just because
Speaker 3: of the Patriots.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Like I said, I'm neither here nor there with any
Speaker 3: of these matchups. I think I like Jacksonville better because
Speaker 3: it'll be in better weather, it'll be better conditions, and
Speaker 3: I think our guys will thrive in that where they
Speaker 3: have been battling it and it'll feel like they have
Speaker 3: one less thing going against them in that game with
Speaker 3: the conditions. But I have no qualms about going to
Speaker 3: any of these teams.
Speaker 2: The Patriots are fifth in scoring, the Bills are sixth.
Speaker 2: New England has the number four offense. The Bills have
Speaker 2: the number five offense. The Patriots defense has slipped in
Speaker 2: recent weeks. Due partly to the injuries, particularly to their
Speaker 2: defensive front, while Buffalo's defense seems to be peaking at
Speaker 2: the right time. I don't love playing the Patriots a
Speaker 2: third time, and I've got an awful lot of respect
Speaker 2: for Drake May, but there might be some benefit to
Speaker 2: the familiarity. The last time the Bills played a division
Speaker 2: opponent on the road in the Wildcard round of the
Speaker 2: playoffs was nineteen ninety nine, when Buffalo played at Miami
Speaker 2: and lost to the Dolphins twenty four to seventeen.
Speaker 1: Finally, the third most likely outcome for.
Speaker 2: The Bills in the wildcard seating is the five seed.
Speaker 2: Tennessee and Indianapolis would both have to be Jacksonville and Houston,
Speaker 2: with Denver beating the Chargers and Buffalo winning over the Jets.
Speaker 2: According to Next Gen Stats, twenty seven percent chance of
Speaker 2: that happening. In this case, they would face the AFC
Speaker 2: North winner, that being either Baltimore or Pittsburgh, whose Sunday
Speaker 2: Night in Pittsburgh won the first meeting in Baltimore in
Speaker 2: Week fourteen twenty seven to twenty two. But the Steelers
Speaker 2: will be without dk Metcalf tight end Darnell Washington in
Speaker 2: this game, and TJ. Watt is a question mark after
Speaker 2: a punctured lung. So who would you rather face if
Speaker 2: this scenario on folds, Baltimore Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4: Baltimore's playing really hot right now.
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh has always had that feeling the entire season of
Speaker 3: their tread and water and they're doing it just they're
Speaker 3: just hanging on by the skin of their teeth.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: Certainly Aaron Rodgers is going to find a way to
Speaker 3: figure it out that he's going to get the most
Speaker 3: out of whatever they have of Darnell Washington is a
Speaker 3: loss for that team.
Speaker 2: Teacher's still trying to get Calvin Austin, their speed receiver,
Speaker 2: back from a hamstring injury.
Speaker 1: They're beat up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Pittsburgh is. Pittsburgh is a little bit of a
Speaker 3: hot mess right now. They're still kind of hanging in there,
Speaker 3: no question about it, but they just took it on
Speaker 3: the chin from the Cleveland Browns. They seem to be
Speaker 3: fading at the stretch. If they find a way to
Speaker 3: beat Baltimore now that everything changes, I mean, that's that's
Speaker 3: a different kind.
Speaker 4: Of team you would think if they beat Baltimore.
Speaker 2: And there's the Lamar Jackson question too, is he playing
Speaker 2: and what shape is he in if he is, because
Speaker 2: he didn't play the previous week against Green Bay, Yeah,
Speaker 2: a game that they rode Derek Henry for over two
Speaker 2: hundred yards.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it'll be interesting. It comes down. I still
Speaker 3: think Baltimore they're rallying around their backup quarterback Huntly, They're
Speaker 3: gonna play really hard, and they're gonna be in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: So if they can go into Pittsburgh and beat the
Speaker 3: Steelers like that, well the steel you know. I just
Speaker 3: I just think Baltimore's I think Baltimore's just a freight trainer.
Speaker 3: I don't think there's any way they lose this game
Speaker 3: this weekend.
Speaker 2: I feel like both of these teams have kind of
Speaker 2: slogged their way through the season, Like it's hard to
Speaker 2: know if Lamar Jackson is going to be fully healthy
Speaker 2: in that game or the rest of the way if
Speaker 2: they happen to win and qualify for the playoffs. But
Speaker 2: they've leaned back on their run game, and Baltimore is
Speaker 2: very quietly, as I said earlier, overtaking the Bills as
Speaker 2: the number one rushing team in football. After Derek Henry's
Speaker 2: two hundred plus yard effort at Green Bay in Week seventeen.
Speaker 2: I don't feel like the Steelers have anyone on their
Speaker 2: roster like Derrick Henry or Lamar Jackson at any position,
Speaker 2: and for that reason, I'd rather face the Steelers if
Speaker 2: this seeding scenario were to play out. Time to swing
Speaker 2: things over to the Numbers game, where Steve will be
Speaker 2: quizzed on Bills playoff trivia. Let's do it, all, right, Steve.
Speaker 2: Question number one, what are the most points ever scored
Speaker 2: by the Bills in a road playoff game? Uh?
Speaker 4: Thirty whatever, I'm gonna safe.
Speaker 3: Whatever we scored in the championship game against the Dolphins
Speaker 3: in ninety two.
Speaker 1: That was twenty nine to ten the final. You want
Speaker 1: to go with that, Yeah, I'll go with that.
Speaker 2: That is incorrect on a road playoff game in Bill's history.
Speaker 2: I will give you a hint.
Speaker 4: It's in the sixties or something.
Speaker 1: No, it was.
Speaker 2: Actually a loss.
Speaker 1: Most points scored the road playoffs.
Speaker 3: Oh, it was in Cleveland, the Cleveland Browns game nineteen
Speaker 3: eighty ninety.
Speaker 1: That was thirty four to thirty. But it is incorrect.
Speaker 4: I don't know who is it.
Speaker 1: It's the thirteen to second game.
Speaker 2: Oh, forty two, thirty six in overtime thirty six points
Speaker 2: at Kansas City in twenty twenty one. Question number two,
Speaker 2: what two AFC teams have the Bills faced in the
Speaker 2: playoffs on the road most often?
Speaker 4: AFC teams on the road most often.
Speaker 2: There's two that are tied, and it's three times each
Speaker 2: they have faced these teams on the road in the
Speaker 2: postseason in.
Speaker 4: The Tennessee slash Houston.
Speaker 2: It is not Tennessee slash Houston or even or not. That's
Speaker 2: only twice if you add them together. Miami, not Miami,
Speaker 2: which would have been my guess.
Speaker 1: I was surprised by this, which is why I thought
Speaker 1: it was.
Speaker 3: A good question.
Speaker 2: San Diego, not San Diego only twice.
Speaker 4: Gotta be Indianapolis.
Speaker 3: It is not Indianapolis, see because they used to be
Speaker 3: an ordivision I taught in Media League.
Speaker 1: Indianapolis didn't make the playoffs.
Speaker 4: Kansas City.
Speaker 2: Kansas City has won thanks to the most recent team
Speaker 2: going there in every stink in.
Speaker 4: Year, Kansas City and the Jets.
Speaker 2: It's actually Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Question number three,
Speaker 2: what is the highest team rushing yardage total for the
Speaker 2: Bills in a playoff game in their history? And I
Speaker 2: will give you a hint. You played in that game,
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3: Champion Championship game, Thurman Thomas Boss.
Speaker 1: No, there's one that was more.
Speaker 4: Miami Dolphin's down there the championship game.
Speaker 1: You have the right team, you have the wrong game.
Speaker 4: Thirty four, forty four to thirty four snow game.
Speaker 1: Nope, it's not that game.
Speaker 2: It's December thirtieth, nineteen ninety five against Miami Bills win
Speaker 2: thirty seven to twenty two. You want to guess the run,
Speaker 2: give me the guests on the rushing yardage total because.
Speaker 4: It was fat was in the wild card round.
Speaker 1: Yeah, down there here nineteen ninety five.
Speaker 3: I think Timmy Tindale, he had a big game game,
Speaker 3: Timmy Day, tim Tindale's.
Speaker 4: Let's go the Canadian comet. Love it.
Speaker 1: Ah. He wasn't alone.
Speaker 3: I gotta be gotta be two between two twenty five,
Speaker 3: two fifty.
Speaker 2: It's almost one hundred yards more than that. Really, I
Speaker 2: was stunned by this. The Bills ran for three hundred
Speaker 2: and forty one yards go against the Miami Dolphins on
Speaker 2: December thirtieth, nineteen nine hours today. Timmy Tyndale with sixty
Speaker 2: eight rushing.
Speaker 1: Yards Derek Holds.
Speaker 2: With eighty seven rushing yards and Thurman Thomas with one
Speaker 2: fifty eight three hundred forty one rushing yards on the ground.
Speaker 2: Question number four in the Sean McDermott era, which AFC
Speaker 2: club have the Bills beaten the most in the post season?
Speaker 1: Sean McDermott era only.
Speaker 4: Oh gosh, beating the most.
Speaker 2: We're only talking about a nine year stretch here.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh. It is not Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4: Who they even play Baltimore twice?
Speaker 2: It is Baltimore And the answer is twice. I've beaten
Speaker 2: them twice in the playoffs. Wow, there you go, Divisional
Speaker 2: round for both games last year.
Speaker 1: And in twenty twenty, the COVID year.
Speaker 4: So the COVID year.
Speaker 1: The numbers game three hundred and forty one rushing yards.
Speaker 3: Holy moly, unbelievablely snapped off a fifty plus yard touchdown
Speaker 3: right then finished with sixty eight.
Speaker 2: That's great, unbelievable rushing total. My eyes popped out of
Speaker 2: my head when I saw that. Yeah, Bill's fans get
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Speaker 2: partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one
Speaker 2: burning question, and we looked ahead to the postseason and
Speaker 2: ask who will have more rushing touchdowns in Buffalo's wild
Speaker 2: card playoff game, Josh Allen or James Cook.
Speaker 4: Hmm, I'll say I'll say Josh.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, just because I think they'll get I think
Speaker 3: they'll get in close and we'll get him close, and
Speaker 3: they'll put the ball in the hands of their best
Speaker 3: player and turn him loose. Now, you know, there's a
Speaker 3: ton of stuff could go wrong, but I think that's
Speaker 3: a good question. It's a good question. I think how
Speaker 3: many times will they both have a rushing touchdown in
Speaker 3: a game would be a good question too, I think because.
Speaker 4: They're going to hand it to James Cook in these rights.
Speaker 3: And this is that year.
Speaker 1: And the other thing too, is.
Speaker 2: They've both been neck and neck all season long with
Speaker 2: multiple rushing touchdown games. I think Josh has five, right
Speaker 2: and Cook has four if I remember right from the
Speaker 2: last time I looked that up. It may have changed
Speaker 2: since the last time I checked, but they're both doing
Speaker 2: a job right on the ground this season. Just for
Speaker 2: the sake of argument, I'll say James has more rushing
Speaker 2: touchdowns in Buffalo's wildcard playoff game.
Speaker 1: Hopefully they both have a bunch. Hopefully James has three
Speaker 1: and Josh has two. That would be nice. I'll take that.
Speaker 2: Because I think it would be an appropriate representation of
Speaker 2: what this season has been like.
Speaker 4: On offense. Josh has fourteen rush and James has twelve
Speaker 4: On the season.
Speaker 2: They've been neck and neck all season long. Our closing
Speaker 2: figure deals with James Cook's quest for the first rushing
Speaker 2: title in his career. He currently has a forty seven
Speaker 2: yard lead on the Colts Jonathan Taylor, and he's just
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty seven yards ahead of the Ravens
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry, who is back in the race after going
Speaker 2: for over two hundred at Green Bay in Week seventeen.
Speaker 2: If Cook finishes atop the league's rushers, he'll secure the
Speaker 2: first rushing title for the Bills since OJ Simpson in
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy six. That'll do it for this episode. Be
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use. So
Speaker 2: you know what our next edition is out, or watch
Speaker 2: us on the Bills YouTube channel, because when you need
Speaker 2: to know about the Bills, you need to check Bills
Speaker 2: by the Numbers.
Speaker 1: For Steve Tasker, I'm Chris Brown. Thanks for listening. Happy
Speaker 1: New Year everybody,