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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju Us prout read.

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Speaker 3: Enough there for running again, so smoothe so sweet slipid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen just glorious extecution.

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Speaker 4: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind? Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous.

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Speaker 1: Amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 3: It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus how old earth?

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Speaker 2: Pick that happens? Hellori one.

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Speaker 5: Welcome back to wondergl At, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 5: the Action Network, presented to you by BET three sixty five.

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Speaker 5: My name is Michael Leebop, aring me for this our

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Speaker 5: first of two group stage Round two previews for Euro

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty four. Mouthful but joining me as always our

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Speaker 5: BJ Cunningham and Sam Ingram. Together the three of us

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Speaker 5: are going to go on a little handicapping adventure over

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Speaker 5: the six matches coming your way on Wednesday June nineteenth

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Speaker 5: and Thursday June twentieth, and we will reconvene to preview

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Speaker 5: the second half of the round two of the group

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Speaker 5: stage for Euro twenty twenty four. But we will start

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Speaker 5: with a must win match for Croatia against Albania nine

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Speaker 5: am Eastern Time on Wednesday, June nineteenth. Croatia, coming off

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Speaker 5: of a defeat to Spain and their opener, they are

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Speaker 5: prohibitive minus two twenty three favorites against Albania, who lost

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Speaker 5: to one to Italy and their respective opener albanias plus

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Speaker 5: six fifty. The charraw here is plus it's three thirty three.

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Speaker 5: Sam will start with you. I came away from that

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Speaker 5: Croatia Spain matched thinking that how I felt about Croatia,

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Speaker 5: it kind of just stayed the same, like, Yeah, this

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Speaker 5: is a side that on their day can play with anyone. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: tons of talent littered throughout their lineup. But I do

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Speaker 5: think that the they're going to have trouble with their

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Speaker 5: finishing product, and that's what I'll expand on. But what

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Speaker 5: do you think here? Should they just run all over

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Speaker 5: this Albania's side, especially given the circumstances where they need

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Speaker 5: to go for it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want to say, a handicapping adventure sounds

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Speaker 3: right up the street, so I'll get straight into it.

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Speaker 3: I think it was a case, Michael, of them just

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Speaker 3: being outclassed on the day and also Spain just being

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Speaker 3: overly clinical. And I think it's safe to say we

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Speaker 3: shouldn't really expect that from their opponents coming up now,

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Speaker 3: So maybe we should look at that this in a

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Speaker 3: different light. And it doesn't sound like the sexiest game

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Speaker 3: on paper, but we'll actually be witnessing history on Wednesday

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Speaker 3: when Croatia take on Albania for the first time ever,

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Speaker 3: which is interesting. So Albania, second lowest ranked team in

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Speaker 3: the competition after Georgia, took the lead after twenty three

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Speaker 3: seconds again to Italy, and they were the favorites to

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Speaker 3: score the fewest goals, and you just know that there

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Speaker 3: were a load of punters on Albania no goal scorer,

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Speaker 3: about six to one. Luckily I wasn't on that, but

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Speaker 3: after twenty three seconds you'd be, yeah, you'd be sick.

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Speaker 3: But this for me, well, that for me was the

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Speaker 3: perfect example of like a side scoring too soon in

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Speaker 3: the game. So Sylvina would have had them like set

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Speaker 3: up and instructed to perform a certain way, of course,

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Speaker 3: and after twenty three seconds everything changes and that just

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Speaker 3: goes out of the window and the onus was really

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Speaker 3: on Italy then from minute one, and it was just

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Speaker 3: too much for Albania to contend with and there was

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Speaker 3: there was no way really that they were going to

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Speaker 3: hold on to that lead for any real length of time.

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Speaker 3: After the game, Kiez had described Albania's goal as the

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Speaker 3: perfect shot, and that's exactly what it is, and it

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Speaker 3: was sorry. Their goalkeeper Strakosh made free saves and kept

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Speaker 3: this match up respectable. And although you won't see it

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Speaker 3: on the official stats because it wasn't counted, don A

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Speaker 3: Rumor made a hugely important stop to ray Minaj. Just

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Speaker 3: think def later on in the game, to deny Albania

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Speaker 3: at a point. So I don't think Albana is going

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Speaker 3: to be walked over here. They might be outclassed in

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Speaker 3: the end, but I think there's enough to worry Croatia.

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Speaker 3: They'll be Albania will be compact as possible in like

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Speaker 3: a four four to two block and aim to release

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Speaker 3: players higher up the pitch quickly in transition. That will

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Speaker 3: be their game plan. But I just expect. I expect

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Speaker 3: Croatia to approach the game in a manner that has

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Speaker 3: the season control of proceedings. Sooner rather than later. So

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Speaker 3: I think it may pan out the way that the

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Speaker 3: Italy Albania game did because Croatia need to win from

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Speaker 3: minute one, and I think Croati will be looking to

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Speaker 3: put Albania on the back foot in the opening stages,

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Speaker 3: try and find an early opener, but also to avoid

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Speaker 3: that unwanted heard all that Italy had to overcome, because

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Speaker 3: obviously they could do without that. So I think the

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Speaker 3: way I'm going to play it is for Croatia to

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Speaker 3: win the game overall. I think they have enough to

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Speaker 3: do that, but also to start fast, and like, how

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Speaker 3: do you do that from a betting perspective, Well, I

96
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Speaker 3: think if you look at like the same game parlay,

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Speaker 3: if you think Croatia starts quick and you think they

98
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Speaker 3: look to put that Spain defeat to bed, you can

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Speaker 3: drag that minus to zero eight prize around Croatia's neck

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Speaker 3: right up to minus one twenty by adding Croatia over

101
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Speaker 3: one point five first half corners and they actually had

102
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Speaker 3: no corners versus Spain. But I think it might be

103
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Speaker 3: a bit different here. So suppose they fly out of

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Speaker 3: the blocks and really get after Albania in the opening stages,

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Speaker 3: that first half corner line added to a win will

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Speaker 3: probably be breached quite comfortably. I think Italy recorded three

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Speaker 3: in the first forty five minutes after being pegged back

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Speaker 3: to a one. They'll deficit, so Croatia to win and

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Speaker 3: over one point five first half corners at minus one twenty,

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Speaker 3: I think it's it's an all right way in.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that definitely qualifies as a handicapping adventure for me.

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Speaker 5: So well done getting that one across. I think that

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Speaker 5: a lot of times in these situations, betters will just

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Speaker 5: flock too, because we know that both of these teams

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Speaker 5: are going to go for it.

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Speaker 2: They both need to get something on the board.

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Speaker 5: Obviously that looks very different for a team like Albania

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Speaker 5: compared to a team like Croatia, So people will just

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Speaker 5: naturally gravitate towards goals, and in the situation, as BJ

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Speaker 5: would know, I like to sprinkle a small bet on

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Speaker 5: the nil nil and I think I'm gonna do that here.

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Speaker 5: I think that this one sets up as a classic

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Speaker 5: albanill just sitting back looking at counter, not you know,

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Speaker 5: trying I guess we're not, at least trying to be

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Speaker 5: on the front foot, sitting back and letting Croatia just

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Speaker 5: ping the ball around, and I don't think Croatia has

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Speaker 5: that the clinical finishing in them anymore. So I think

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Speaker 5: that this thing could end up being one of those

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Speaker 5: situations where you after the game, you're just wondering how

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Speaker 5: on earth did Croatia not get one across the line

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Speaker 5: and Albania celebrating a nil nil, getting a point and

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Speaker 5: keeping their tournament alive. So in a weird way, I

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Speaker 5: think that this is going to be one way traffic

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Speaker 5: for Croatia, But at the same time that's fine with

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Speaker 5: Albanian and I think that they'll be able to be

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Speaker 5: as organized as possible here BJ and I think if

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Speaker 5: you're going to get close to nine to one on

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Speaker 5: a nil nil in this situation with two teams that

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Speaker 5: I don't think are going to light light it up

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Speaker 5: in terms of scoring, I'm okay with it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of in the same light as I

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Speaker 1: guess both of you right now is that I like

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Speaker 1: under two and a half at minus one twenty. So

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Speaker 1: the thing about Croatia is, you know, if you look,

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Speaker 1: they did create over well over two expected goals against Spain.

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Speaker 1: There was a penalty in there, but pretty much all

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Speaker 1: their chances came after Spain was up three to nothing. Right,

148
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Speaker 1: so when the onus is on you and you're down

149
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Speaker 1: so many goals, of course you're going to be more

150
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Speaker 1: aggressive going forward, and naturally the opponent is going to

151
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Speaker 1: be more passive because they're up three nil and they're

152
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Speaker 1: trying to defend the lead. Right before it got to

153
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Speaker 1: three nil, Croatia hadn't even created half an expected goal.

154
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Speaker 1: And even the like quote unquote big chances that they

155
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Speaker 1: had when they came after those Spain goals were all

156
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Speaker 1: just kind of shots from outside the box, which is

157
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Speaker 1: generally what their offense kind of settles on, right, It's

158
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Speaker 1: kind of shots from outside the box or just crosses that.

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Speaker 4: Go to you know, Budhimer or.

160
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Speaker 1: Prem Rich, and typically they are of lower quality. I

161
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Speaker 1: give Albania a lot of credit for that defensive performance

162
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Speaker 1: against Italy. They only they held them to one point

163
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Speaker 1: six expected goals. It was a lot of low quality

164
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Speaker 1: chances from Italy. The back post head of that gout

165
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Speaker 1: Italy up won nothing was probably the biggest chance they

166
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Speaker 1: had for the entire match. You know, Savignia, like Sam said,

167
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Speaker 1: is going to set them up in a very compact

168
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Speaker 1: defensive block which is one. You know, with Croatia being

169
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Speaker 1: the one having control, possession and build up, I'm not

170
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Speaker 1: sure that they're really capable of consistently creating high quality chances.

171
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Speaker 1: They may very well put the ball in the back

172
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Speaker 1: of the net, but as soon as they do. You

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Speaker 1: saw the limitations of Albania's offense. Right, Yes, they scored

174
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,880
Speaker 1: in twenty to twenty three seconds, but after that they

175
00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,000
Speaker 1: didn't do anything. They couldn't even create a half expected goal.

176
00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,480
Speaker 1: They took seven shots, four of them were from outside

177
00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,680
Speaker 1: the box. They're just an offense that relies on transition.

178
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Speaker 4: And shots from outside the box.

179
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Speaker 1: So if that's the only two things you can do

180
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Speaker 1: against the Croatia defense, that I still think is pretty good.

181
00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,080
Speaker 1: I know they gave him some chances here to Spain,

182
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Speaker 1: but it's again, it's a very different type of opponent

183
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Speaker 1: than a Spain team, where you know you have to

184
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Speaker 1: choose whether you're going to press them or if you're

185
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Speaker 1: gonna play passively. If you play passively, well they're just

186
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,120
Speaker 1: gonna pass the ball around you and you're gonna have

187
00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,600
Speaker 1: to be really good defensively. If you press them, then

188
00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,520
Speaker 1: you give them a chance of opening up, which kind

189
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Speaker 1: of happened on the first goal from Morozzo. So I

190
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 1: like under two and a half of minus one twenty

191
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,720
Speaker 1: only project two point one. Overs have been the talk

192
00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,880
Speaker 1: of the tournament so far. Basically every match goes over

193
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,720
Speaker 1: and then England obviously puts up a one miller at

194
00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,800
Speaker 1: the end of it. But eventually these matches are gonna

195
00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,080
Speaker 1: are gonna kind of even out. I don't think overs

196
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Speaker 1: are gonna continue to hit this rate. We'll see, maybe

197
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,040
Speaker 1: they do, and it'll be a fun tournament, but yeah,

198
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:06,560
Speaker 1: I do like under two and a half goals here

199
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,520
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty. I think the the olvers a

200
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,720
Speaker 1: little overinflated here, okay.

201
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,920
Speaker 5: So that brings us to the noon kickoff Eastern Time

202
00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:18,920
Speaker 5: between Germany and Hungary. Germany sitting at a robust minus

203
00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,640
Speaker 5: three seventy one, Hungary coming back plus eight fifty. The

204
00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,720
Speaker 5: draw here is plus five twenty five. We are recording

205
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:30,320
Speaker 5: this right before Belgium Slovakia, so all the first you know,

206
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,160
Speaker 5: the match week one hasn't concluded yet. I think it's

207
00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,880
Speaker 5: okay to declare Germany this is the most impressive team

208
00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,000
Speaker 5: from from match week one. Maybe someone you know comes

209
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,320
Speaker 5: comes ahead and puts up a I mean, maybe it's Romania.

210
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,560
Speaker 5: I don't know, but somebody somebody else's is if they

211
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:48,320
Speaker 5: would have to do a lot to the trump. What

212
00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,880
Speaker 5: Germany did against Scotland, I think how Scotland set themselves

213
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:57,680
Speaker 5: up also played into that. And to that point, I

214
00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,760
Speaker 5: don't know what Scotland was thinking, but Germany was sublime

215
00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:05,680
Speaker 5: in on Friday afternoon all of us. Maybe not you BJ,

216
00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 5: but with Sam and I, I my best bet was

217
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,320
Speaker 5: that Germany was going to come out kind of stodgy, nervy, cagey,

218
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Speaker 5: feel the weight of the tournament on their shoulders, and

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Speaker 5: that got blown up within like first two minutes. I

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Speaker 5: knew that Neil nil first half bet was not going

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Speaker 5: to get over the line. They just looked really good. Normally,

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Speaker 5: in a situation like this, I would look to try

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Speaker 5: to sell high and bylow and a hungry team that

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Speaker 5: was not at the really at the races against Switzerland,

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Speaker 5: and I'm scared to do it, so I'm likely gonna

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Speaker 5: pass here. I think that you two are going to

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Speaker 5: ride the wave here with Diman cheft though, Sam, is

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Speaker 5: is that how you're thinking?

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Speaker 3: Yes, Michael, So just looking back to the opener, you

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Speaker 3: had Florian Verts followed by Jamal Mucila, two lads very

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Speaker 3: much in the frame to pick up young player of

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Speaker 3: the tournament in my eyes anyway, scored in the first

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Speaker 3: twenty minutes and that was game over.

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Speaker 4: Really.

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Speaker 3: Those two were joined by Habits who killed the game

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Speaker 3: from the spot just before the half time. Those three

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Speaker 3: up top and Gunderwan you could kind of join them

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Speaker 3: as a four fluid like alternated positions. They dropped deep

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Speaker 3: to show for the ball and often played on the

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Speaker 3: shoulder of the last man two and they were found

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Speaker 3: in behind a couple of times by direct balls behind

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Speaker 3: Scotland's back line. And I want to look at the

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Speaker 3: third goal, like if we analyze the build up player,

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Speaker 3: it all comes from Musiala who was way over on

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Speaker 3: the left. So the third goal that was yeah for

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Speaker 3: the penalty, the build up to the bunty, and so

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Speaker 3: he was way over on the left of Scotland's defensive third.

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Speaker 3: He's about six foot from from Verts to the point

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Speaker 3: where Verts was expecting like a short punchy pass into

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Speaker 3: him before Muciala then like jinks past a few players

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Speaker 3: crossfield ends upon the right before Gundwan knocks out to

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Speaker 3: Kimmich on the right, and then straight from there. As

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Speaker 3: soon as Kimmich gets it, there's four German shirts sprinting

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Speaker 3: in the box with Gundwan winning ahead. And I just

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Speaker 3: think it's if that continues, which I've seen no reason

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Speaker 3: why it wouldn't continue under Nagusman, it's going to be

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Speaker 3: a nightmare for national sides to deal with that kind

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Speaker 3: of movement. Mucilat offers so much. I'm so impressive him anyway,

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Speaker 3: But like, I was really impressed he because he's playing.

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Speaker 3: He was a young lad playing for his country opening

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Speaker 3: game of the tournament, and it was just like he

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Speaker 3: was like in you know, in the playground or something.

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Speaker 3: He was just going past opposition players like they weren't there.

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Speaker 3: He was opening up so much space for his for

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Speaker 3: his people on his team. And yeah, Vitzu is not

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Speaker 3: far after either. He possesses the kind of like blistering

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Speaker 3: pace that defenders hate and with the likes of Gundwan

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Speaker 3: cruise in behind, it just looks perfectly balanced. And I'm

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Speaker 3: going to get ahead of myself. I'm not sure about

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Speaker 3: BJ's probably a little bit more level headed than I am.

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Speaker 3: But Hungary struggled in the opener. They fell victim of

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Speaker 3: something similar to Scotland. They didn't turn up as their

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Speaker 3: opponents did. Both Germany and Switzerland were at it from

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Speaker 3: minute one. Germany especially, it was like a bull out

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Speaker 3: of the gate for them. Hungary were passive and labored

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Speaker 3: and didn't show the type of resolute solidity that they've

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Speaker 3: become known for under Marco Rossi. And as soon as

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Speaker 3: that swisker went in, I knew it was curtains and

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Speaker 3: fair play to you lads, because you told me Switzerland

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Speaker 3: would have far too much for Hungary and I didn't listen.

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Speaker 3: So there we are. You can look at recent Nations

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Speaker 3: League games between Germany and Hungary, but I feel like

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Speaker 3: that might be a little bit irrelevant here because I

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Speaker 3: just can't see there being any change to Germany's approach

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Speaker 3: and outcome in this upcoming game. They're going to really

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Speaker 3: go for Hungary's throat like they did against Scotland, and

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Speaker 3: I trust Congressman to compose a game plan which gets

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Speaker 3: the better of Hungary gets the better of Marco Rossi.

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Speaker 3: I fully trust him with the componentcy as it is disposal,

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Speaker 3: and that's why we've picked him out as outright winners

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Speaker 3: and I'm not really keen to take anything pro Hungary.

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Speaker 3: I don't like Germany at minus three seventy one. If

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Speaker 3: you came to get the host on side, you think

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Speaker 3: they'll start fast again. Perhaps you could go something for

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Speaker 3: something like the same game parlay like Germany win Germany

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Speaker 3: most corners and over four point five Germany first half

297
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Speaker 3: shots that's minus one on one on betfy six five.

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Speaker 3: Against Scotland they managed five first half shots despite being

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Speaker 3: two new up after twenty minutes, and the match ended

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Speaker 3: five now on corners. So if you like Germany, which

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Speaker 3: many people will, that might be away into the game.

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Speaker 5: Mucila is now sixteen to one to win the player

303
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Speaker 5: at the tournament. Just not just the young player of

304
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Speaker 5: the tournament. Granted this as read before in bad Bagos

305
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Speaker 5: or anyone from Belgium goes, but just just a note there.

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Speaker 5: And he's now the second favorite behind Bellingham for a

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Speaker 5: young Player of the tournament.

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Speaker 2: Bellingham is at two to one at bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 2: He's a favorite.

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Speaker 5: Muciali plus four fifty bj. You are also on the

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Speaker 5: side of the Germans here, you think that this could

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Speaker 5: be a bit of a roup.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So here's the The problem that lies for a

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Speaker 1: team like Scotland and Hungary is kind of in the

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Speaker 1: same aspect. Is if you are generally a team that

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Speaker 1: plays a low block and primarily plays in transition, the

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Speaker 1: second that you get into a negative game state is

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Speaker 1: when things tend.

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Speaker 4: To fall apart. And Sam is right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Germany looked awesome tactically. They were doing such

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Speaker 1: a good job of like like Sam said, bringing guys

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Speaker 1: deep and build up and making scotland center backs make

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Speaker 1: a decision whether they come with them and allow that

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Speaker 1: space to be vacated and play balls over the top

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Speaker 1: or if they sit back well, they can just easily

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Speaker 1: receive the ball and then you make passes around and

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Speaker 1: score that way. And Scotland just didn't have an answer

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Speaker 1: for it. And even you know Scotland, especially when you're

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Speaker 1: playing it back five and you have two wing backs

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Speaker 1: back there. Germany, because they were pushing their fullbacks up

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Speaker 1: and they had them on the touch line, Scotland's fullbacks

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Speaker 1: had to make a decision. Do they stay out there

333
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Speaker 1: and defend those guys and leave space the half spasis

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Speaker 1: where Germany's already overload in the middle of the pitch,

335
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Speaker 1: or do they play more narrow and allow Germany just

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Speaker 1: to have easy balls outlet balls out there. That's how

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Speaker 1: the first goal happened was because Scotland was playing too

338
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Speaker 1: narrow and they just played an easy ball out to

339
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Speaker 1: Kimmich where it's just came inside right in the center

340
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Speaker 1: block because the rotations were too slow and Boom won nothing.

341
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Speaker 1: So that can absolutely happen to Hungary here again because

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Speaker 1: Switzerland did the exact same thing to them. But what

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Speaker 1: was really concerning about Hungary is when they went behind,

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Speaker 1: their press looked a lot like Manchester United over the

345
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Speaker 1: second half of the season, where it's just all the

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Speaker 1: forwards are pressing the center backs and the defenders are

347
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Speaker 1: staying back. Once you meet the person the pressure, you're

348
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Speaker 1: just running out the defense over and over and over

349
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Speaker 1: and over again. And if they do that here against Germany,

350
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Speaker 1: that becomes a big problem because they're going to have

351
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Speaker 1: to be desperate, being down not having any points here

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Speaker 1: so far, pretty much their last game is probably gonna

353
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Speaker 1: come down here. So you over two and a half

354
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Speaker 1: goals at plus one twenty. They're just tactically they are

355
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 1: the best team in this tournament at finding space using

356
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Speaker 1: movements to create that space, especially against low blocks, So

357
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Speaker 1: I don't see any reason why Hungary would be able

358
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Speaker 1: to not only stop them, but once they go behind,

359
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Speaker 1: why Germany wouldn't just keep piling it on and being

360
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Speaker 1: able to do that. So, you know, the markets. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to this in this next match too, but the

362
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Speaker 1: markets tend to move very quickly. And one of the benefits,

363
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Speaker 1: you know, if you're somebody who's who's betting the Euros

364
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 1: and you don't typically bet on soccer, and you know,

365
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 1: like somebody like well, I bet the NFL, or I

366
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 1: bet the NBA, one of the great benefits of having

367
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Speaker 1: it betting on soccer is that the matches that are

368
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Speaker 1: happening are the odds are available and sitting right there

369
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Speaker 1: as the matches are going on, right So if something

370
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Speaker 1: happens in one of those matches where it'd be like

371
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 1: Switzerland getting hammered or Hungry getting hammered, you can generally

372
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Speaker 1: get a better price as you're watching the match than

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Speaker 1: what it is. Because Germany went from their's of minus

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Speaker 1: one and a half minus one point seventy five, and

375
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Speaker 1: I'm guessing by the time we reach you know, match time,

376
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Speaker 1: it could be closer to two. So just if you're

377
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Speaker 1: somebody that's that's betting these, be on the lookout for

378
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,719
Speaker 1: better prices as you're watching them. Because it's a it's

379
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 1: an international tournament. There's gonna be overreactions.

380
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Speaker 4: You know. We sometimes we like to bet against that.

381
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 1: But if you really think that, you know, a team

382
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 1: like Germany is gonna do that, you know, be on

383
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: the lookout for prices in advance for their next match

384
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 1: because generally you can get a better price than what

385
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 1: it closes that.

386
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 5: Let's talk about an overreaction. I'm going to be playing

387
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 5: into that in the next one. Switzerland is now minus

388
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 5: one twenty their odds on on the three way line

389
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 5: to beat Scotland Scotland plus three twenty. The draw here

390
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,639
Speaker 5: is plus two seventy five. I'm going to be on

391
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 5: an island here because I think Scotland's gonna be pretty

392
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 5: friendless in the in the betting market, and I can

393
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 5: totally see why after that performance against Germany. But I

394
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 5: just can't imagine them a playing worse and be setting

395
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Speaker 5: themselves up like that.

396
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Speaker 2: Again.

397
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Speaker 5: It was bizarre from this from the second and in

398
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 5: credit to Who's Ian Dark and Stuart Holden in the

399
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 5: in the States on the broadcast for pointing it out

400
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 5: immediately that the high line plus like the lack of

401
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 5: pressure on Tony Kruz, just was a disaster from the

402
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 5: onset let him just pick passes and it turned it

403
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 5: into a bit of a like a training ground exercise

404
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 5: for for Germany. I'm expecting a bounce back here from

405
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 5: Scotland and as good as impressive as Switzerland looked in

406
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,119
Speaker 5: in their opener, it gets hungry. I think that Scotland

407
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 5: should set themselves up very differently than Hungary did. I

408
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 5: think that this is going to be a situation where

409
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 5: Scotland will be a lot. There'll be the Scotland that

410
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,679
Speaker 5: I expected in the first half against Germany, like organized,

411
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 5: dying for the shirt, physical, knowing full well that they

412
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 5: need to get something out of this game to have

413
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,919
Speaker 5: a chance and set up what is what would essentially

414
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 5: be a playoff against Hungary in that in that third match,

415
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 5: I think that there's gonna end up being value on Scotland.

416
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:56,959
Speaker 5: I would sit back and wait. This number has been

417
00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 5: on the move since those first matches for both these teams,

418
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 5: as you can imagine, and you can imagine which direction

419
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 5: it's been going in but I think if you're going

420
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 5: to be getting better, then you know, if you can

421
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 5: get Scotland at plus three thirty on the on the

422
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 5: money line, I do think that there's something in it.

423
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 5: It's it's ugly. It's one of those bets that you

424
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 5: really don't have to make. But in these international tournaments,

425
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 5: like BJ just said, the overreaction is gonna come if

426
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 5: and I think it is coming. So yeah, pretty nasty

427
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 5: bet to make. But I do like Scotland here, Sam.

428
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 5: I think that they can at least outrun these odds.

429
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Speaker 2: Will they win? Probably not. The odds tell you that though.

430
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Speaker 3: Yeah, brave Michael, I love it. And I'm just going

431
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Speaker 3: to say BJ, it's great advice too. You could have

432
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Speaker 3: got on Switzerland. They were odds against better than evens

433
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: when they were running away with it against Hungary. Now

434
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 3: they're minus one twenty. So it's probably wise to always

435
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 3: be on the lookout for the next game or the

436
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: next game in terms of odds and what you can

437
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 3: coveritalize on. And if we're looking at Scotland in the

438
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 3: first game, like Steve Clark's game plan just didn't work

439
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 3: against Germany. If I had to pick a word to

440
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 3: describe that performance, it would probably be passive. See up top.

441
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 3: Shay Adams clearly wasn't instructed to press from the front.

442
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 3: It was a similar story for those in behind him too,

443
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 3: And that's fine unless you're playing against the likes of

444
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: Tony Cruz Joshua Kimmick, who can dictate play from deep.

445
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 3: These lads don't need four or five seconds on the ball.

446
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 3: They can put a ball on a dime in an instant,

447
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 3: but if you give them four or five six seconds,

448
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 3: then you'll see what happens. And got stat here in

449
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 3: front of me. Tony Cruez completed one hundred and one

450
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 3: of his one hundred and two passes ninety nine percent

451
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 3: completion rate, while he made thirty one line breaking passes

452
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 3: in the match. So that's that alone is damning. And

453
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 3: he had the freedom of Munich to do whatever he wanted.

454
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: One of the best central midfielders ever to play the game,

455
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 3: probably so it was daft from Scotland. What did they

456
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 3: really expect? And Steve Clark is quite technically savvy, but

457
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 3: he was just miles off it here and Julian Noggs

458
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 3: smiths Germany and showed in the first few minutes that

459
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 3: they were gonna be all over them and it was

460
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 3: only going to really head in one direction. And if

461
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 3: you're trying to think of it from maybe a Scotland

462
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 3: point of view, like if you're in that Jess room,

463
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 3: it's difficult to put a performance like that to the

464
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: back of your mind and go out four days later

465
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 3: and then put on a show as underdogs against a

466
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: side who has just experienced some success and who have

467
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 3: their tails up. And the Scots will have entered their

468
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 3: opener fully believing that their plan could have got something

469
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 3: from the game against Germany. They had no reason to

470
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 3: think otherwise if you go off their qualification campaign. They

471
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 3: did lose away in Spain, but that's no disgrace. They

472
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 3: beat Spain too in Scotland, so they had previous of

473
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 3: overcoming opponents at this level. But now going out against Switzerland,

474
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 3: they's doubt in that Scotland camp that shared belief is

475
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 3: now going to be rocked a little. And I do

476
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 3: expect a different beast in terms of Scotland's performance, like

477
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 3: you said, Michael, but it's just so hard to imagine

478
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: them out doing Switzerland here. And I like the Swiss

479
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,719
Speaker 3: to before the Swiss to put in a similar performance

480
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 3: to Match Day one, they made that Hungry side look

481
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 3: average for large spells. Granite Zaka was absolutely phenomenal, like

482
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 3: he has been all season. He created four chances first

483
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 3: Hungry from open play more than anyone else on the pitch.

484
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: He was absolutely everywhere. It was always on the ball,

485
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 3: always wanting to receive it under pressure, no hiding, and

486
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I've seen a better performance on match

487
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 3: Day one yet. Like you said, we've got a couple

488
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 3: of games still to play, so that could change. And

489
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 3: in Switzerland they've got outlets with pace and dey du

490
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 3: up Top who I've never heard of but got a

491
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: goal on a second Swiss appearance which is brilliant, and

492
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: Dooney and Bolo. Like I was a bit miffed before

493
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: the game seeing Shakiri and Dooney and Bola all on

494
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 3: the bench to start versus Hungry, but they were fantastic

495
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 3: without them, so that shows what I know. And the

496
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: minus one twenty on them to get the win here

497
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 3: is shorter than i'd like. If they were even still

498
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 3: like they were a couple of days ago, I think

499
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 3: i'd have that, So at the prices, I think I'll

500
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 3: sit this one one out, But yeah, fair play to you, Michael.

501
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I can side to a Scotland after

502
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 3: the opener.

503
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, the starting out up top that was? That was

504
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: when I saw the lineup, I said, who is that?

505
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: Because you know, in the preview, I was like, all right,

506
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: who's gonna stop the startup top for Switzerland? Is it

507
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 1: gonna be in Bolo? Is it gonna be Oka for

508
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: is gonna be in Dooney? Like, I just don't know

509
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 1: who it's gonna be. And they just throw a guy

510
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: who plays for Ludigrats in Bulgaria. I was like, what's

511
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 1: going on here? But hey, fair play to him. He scored,

512
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: so I guess the decision was right, But yeah, no,

513
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: Sam's right is that? You know, when Scotland was playing Germany,

514
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: this number on Switzerland was plus one ten and now

515
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: we're looking at minus one twenty. So obviously there's been

516
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 1: a general overreaction. So for me, I only I projected

517
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 1: Switzerland at minus one eighteen here. So now with the

518
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: market's kind of I think the market's kind of corrected

519
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 1: out to where it should be, so it's a pass

520
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 1: for me. But well, yeah, Scotland's got to have a

521
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: very game planner. All Switzerland's gonna do exactly what Germany did.

522
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 5: We shall see, We shall see. This is why betting's

523
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 5: the best. Okay, let's flip the page to Thursday morning,

524
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 5: nine am Eastern Time with Slovenia, who can count themselves

525
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 5: among the one of the more impressive groups. From their

526
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 5: first match with a one to one draw against Denmark,

527
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 5: they might have even deserved a little bit more. They

528
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 5: are now taking on Serbia. Their plus three seventy five

529
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 5: to win this match on the three way line at

530
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 5: Bet three sixty five, Serbia is minus one twenty.

531
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: The draw here is plus two forty. But before we get.

532
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 5: Into our analysis, they're just a reminder that Bet three

533
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 5: sixty five is our proud sponsor and Bet three six

534
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,480
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535
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536
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,800
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537
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538
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 5: your winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there.

539
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,280
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540
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,639
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541
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 5: see why it's never ordinary at bet three, six five,

542
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 5: you must be twenty one. We're older in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

543
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina. We're eighteen and older

544
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 5: in Kentucky. And if you or anyone you know has

545
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 5: a gambling problem and wants help, please call wedding in

546
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 5: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms,

547
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 5: conditions and restrictions apply. Okay, Slovenia and Serbia here a

548
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 5: couple of things. One big picture wise, I think that

549
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 5: this group, which looked pretty straightforward at the stop, and

550
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 5: this is obvious to say after the Denmark result, but

551
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 5: I think this thing is now as chaos written all

552
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 5: over it. It does seem like obviously Slovenia is up for it.

553
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 5: Denmark has some work to do on it, but we

554
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 5: know what their ceiling is. And I thought that Serbia

555
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 5: was fine. I mean, they lost one nil to England.

556
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,479
Speaker 5: They didn't create much, but as bj will tell us,

557
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 5: England is the best defensive team in the world, and

558
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 5: I still think that the Serbia team has more to give.

559
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 5: You look at the talent on the pitch, and as

560
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 5: I noted in the pre like there is some weird

561
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 5: tension between the team and the manager and the country

562
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 5: and the manager in this situation, and perhaps that's you know,

563
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 5: spelling out and the game plan just isn't.

564
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 2: Communicated properly or whatever. But I still believe in this team.

565
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 5: I don't believe in them and enough to lay this

566
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 5: price on a three way line against a Slovenia team

567
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 5: that look really impressive, especially in that second half against Denmark.

568
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 5: But I do think that Serbia, just because they lost

569
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 5: one nil to England, they're outright odds drifted to like

570
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 5: one hundred and ten to one, and obviously that will

571
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 5: correlate with them to advance, with them to finish second,

572
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 5: all that kind of stuff. I still think this is

573
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 5: a buy team in the big picture, but I'm just

574
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 5: gonna ride my my, you know, futures on them and

575
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 5: instead of beanning them here. I do think that the

576
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 5: market looks a little little too high on on Serbia

577
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 5: on the three way line here and what could be

578
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 5: a pretty stodgy match. Obviously Slovenia would be over the

579
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 5: moon with another draw. They probably want to get a

580
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 5: little bit more than that, and Serbia's got to go

581
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 5: for it. Here because they've got a tough one with

582
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 5: Denmark on the other side of the horizon. So I

583
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 5: guess that could open up the gates a little bit

584
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 5: more here Sam, and that's where you're going.

585
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 3: Look, Michael I was really impressed with Slovenia against Denmark.

586
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: Watching the first half, it was obvious that Denmark, with

587
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 3: a better team filled with technically gifted players. Clearly Christine

588
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 3: Erickson should have doubled Denmark's advantage in the first half

589
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 3: and that would have been them out of sight. But

590
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 3: they didn't. Slovenia stayed in the game and always looked

591
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: threatening every other attack. You felt like they were going

592
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 3: to create a goal scoring opportunity up top if you

593
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: have a look, if they've got Benjamin Cesco who will

594
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 3: shoot on site. He generates so much power from such

595
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: little backlift, and that's a handy tool when you've only

596
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 3: got one or two seconds to get a shot away.

597
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: He pinged the post from about thirty yards out in

598
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 3: the second half after another whistled wide before the interval

599
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: andres Spora up top. I thought he was decent. He

600
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,239
Speaker 3: can't hit a bond, but he generated zero point eight

601
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: two XG felt like eight point zero XG. But his

602
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 3: all round game really stood out. He's very very fast,

603
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: He's always looking for that run in behind every time.

604
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 3: And if you forget about the win backs, that Serbian

605
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 3: back three, the three central defenders, they've got a combined

606
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 3: height of about fifty foot, so don't be surprised to

607
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: see Sporar continue playing on the shoulder at every available opportunity.

608
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: He made so many runs in between the center backs

609
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 3: or on the shoulder of one of them that either

610
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 3: wasn't seen or wasn't executed in terms of the past.

611
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 3: So the blueprint is there. We saw it Serbia v England,

612
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 3: SOCCA v. Pavlovitch on the right. So if you can

613
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: get them turning and facing their own goal as a

614
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: defender in the mode of a tough, tackling, no nonsense

615
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 3: type player, that back line would want the Slovenia goal

616
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 3: ahead of them, with the game in front of them.

617
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 3: The last thing that Pavlovitch wants is to be on

618
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 3: the spin against a spor Cesco Soccer anyone else with

619
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 3: a yard of p really, So that's the blueprint I

620
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 3: think Slovenia will utilize that. Cesco is a bit of

621
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 3: a different beast. He can get in behind you too,

622
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: but he's got the intricate football in his locker. He'll

623
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 3: hold it up, bring them a field and wide men

624
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 3: into play and in a fourth four two with Sporae

625
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 3: almost like a big man little man combo that us

626
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 3: English absolutely love. Like if you think Heski you knowing

627
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: crouching the foe like they'll cause problems. And I've probably

628
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 3: got a bit carried away with this, to be honest,

629
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: I've not even touched on Serbia, who I was quite

630
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 3: frustrated with last night. They really really struggled to link

631
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 3: midfield and attack and progress into England's third. I think

632
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 3: they'll find much more joy against Slovenia, but I believe

633
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 3: a lot of it was their own doing against England,

634
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 3: not so much that England stifled every attack. I know

635
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 3: they're one of the best, you know, defensive teams in

636
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 3: the world and any nation is going to struggle against them.

637
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 3: But Serbia didn't help themselves. And you've got like they

638
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 3: they had joy down both wings in the second half

639
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 3: that wasn't exploited enough. You've got the biggest team in

640
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 3: the tournament. You've got two absolute lumps in the box,

641
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 3: you've got to make the most of that. You've got

642
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 3: to play to your strengths in qualifying. Their twenty six

643
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 3: point eight crosses was the most of any nation in

644
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: Germany this summer. And if I was the manager, if

645
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,719
Speaker 3: I was Stooagekovich, I would have I knew exactly how

646
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 3: I'd have played this, so I'd have targeted that new

647
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: center back pair and of Gayhean Stones without Mguire, who

648
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 3: I think second to only Van Dijk in terms of

649
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 3: aerial win percentage in the Premier League this season. See

650
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 3: if you can get any joy there, get the ball

651
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 3: out wide, exploit the space in behind soccer and folding,

652
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: capitalize on any turnovers, possession game, winfree kicks in England's

653
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 3: half and just go direct and long from them. We

654
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 3: didn't see enough of it. I think there was nineteen

655
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: crosses in the end and there wasn't one head. There

656
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 3: wasn't one shot from those crosses. So yeah, I just

657
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 3: think that there's a lot more from Serbia to give.

658
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 3: Their attack is most definitely their most efficient weapons. So

659
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if they'd find a way to

660
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 3: enter slovenia defensive third, which looks shaky with a regular

661
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 3: degree of success. And for me, I just I feel

662
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: like this goes here at Ivoren and both teams to

663
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: score are because minus one twenty. I really like that

664
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 3: and is it's probably one of my favorite bets of

665
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 3: the round.

666
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: The thing, Michael, I'm gonna be on and you'll remember this.

667
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on over five and a half goals

668
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: at fifteen to one, all right, that's happened at this

669
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 1: happened at the World Cup. Serbia played Brazil out of

670
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 1: the gates. They looked horrible offensively, They couldn't do anything

671
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: against the side that just controlled the match from start

672
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 1: to finish, kind of like what England did. And then

673
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 1: what happened They got into this crazy battery three hatch

674
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: with Cameroon yep, which can exactly happen right here. Because

675
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: you saw with Slovenia like they are like Roy Hodgson

676
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 1: ball in a sense, because they are four.

677
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: To four two.

678
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: We're gonna play in transition, We're gonna play long balls,

679
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: We're gonna be good on step pieces, and that plays

680
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: into what kind of Serbia struggles with. They're not a

681
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: very good counter pressing team. They will be open against

682
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: teams like Slovena where they think they can press them

683
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: and you know, get out in transition. They're not going

684
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 1: to do that against England. Right if if they tried

685
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: to press England with the intensate they're going to in

686
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: this match, they're gonna get played right through. So the

687
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: other aspect of it is that Slovenia during qualifying, and

688
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 1: again if you remember they were in a very very

689
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: easy qualifying group, they allowed the second most accurate crosses

690
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes of anybody that's in the zero field,

691
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,800
Speaker 1: which is exactly what you don't want against Serbia. So yes,

692
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 1: Serbia didn't get on the end of a lot of

693
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: those crosses, but they're going to be facing a team

694
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 1: that not only they'll be bigger than, but they're better

695
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 1: in terms of winning those aerial duels as well. Slovenia

696
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 1: was sixteenth and aerial dual win rate during qualifying. So

697
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: I'll be on over five and a half at fifteen

698
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 1: to one, it's a long shot, but yeah, if you

699
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: want to play something a little less risky there, I

700
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: would agree with Sam that this one has high scoring

701
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: written all over it.

702
00:34:58,239 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: I love that.

703
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 5: I'm gonna jump on that with you. That sounds like

704
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,919
Speaker 5: a lot of fun. Yeah, I mean it makes sense

705
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 5: right like that Serbia. Sure they lost that two nail

706
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 5: game to Brazil, and then there were eleven goals scored,

707
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 5: eleven more goals scored in their games combined because of

708
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 5: the three two game with Switzerland on the back of

709
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 5: that crazy game with Cameron. So yeah, I'm in it.

710
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 5: Let's move on to twelve pm Eastern time, five pm

711
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 5: British summertime. We here England and Denmark will face off

712
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 5: and the Danes are a five to one underdog. Here

713
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 5: England odds on there minus one fifty four. The draw

714
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 5: is plus two sixty. Ah man, this in a way

715
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 5: it feels like classic England that they started the tournament

716
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 5: the way they did. But then again, you think about

717
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 5: how they started the World Cup, right they they tripled

718
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 5: up Iran right six to two in Qatar, But when

719
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 5: you go before that at the previous Euros, it was

720
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 5: kind of a sleepy start to the tournament for England

721
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 5: against Croatia and they never really got going in the

722
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 5: group stage, right They beat Croatia one nothing, Scotland nil nil,

723
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 5: and then they beat Chechia one nothing, and even if

724
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,359
Speaker 5: and I guess it's it's a little unfair to say

725
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 5: draw a line through a six to two win, but

726
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 5: if you do draw a line through that six to

727
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 5: win against Iran, like the next match for them was

728
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 5: the nil nil against the United States and then they

729
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 5: played Whales in what was a kind of just a

730
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 5: weird match just generally. And I just think this is

731
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 5: what this England's teammo is like they're looking to peak

732
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 5: as we get into the business end of the tournament.

733
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 5: I don't think that Sam will be able to tell

734
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 5: us better, but I think that of course the media

735
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 5: in England is going to nitpick every second of one

736
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 5: nil win against Serbian, which the both teams I guess,

737
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 5: weren't all that impressive going forward. I don't think it's

738
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 5: as big a deal as as anybody else will and

739
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 5: it's easy for me to say an ocean away, but

740
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 5: I just don't think that they're set up to look

741
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 5: to run teams off the park right now. They're trying

742
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 5: to get job done, get the points, get into the

743
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 5: round of sixteen, and peak play their best soccer as

744
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 5: we get into the business end of the tournament. I

745
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 5: feel like this one sets up very similar to that

746
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 5: USA game that we saw at the World Cup where

747
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 5: it's going to be one team that's desperate, that's Denmark.

748
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 5: To get anything out of this game. They can get

749
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 5: a point, they'll fancy their chances to get three against

750
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 5: Serbia and they should feel pretty good about getting through.

751
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 2: They have to avoid defeat here.

752
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 5: I would say the Danes England didn't impress me all

753
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,760
Speaker 5: that much going forwards. Two nil nils in the same

754
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 5: in six matches and the same episode. Too many to

755
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 5: give out, because I do feel like this one feels

756
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 5: very nil nilly too. If you don't want to take

757
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 5: the chance it's plus seven to fifty. If you don't

758
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 5: want to take that on, I think a draw here

759
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 5: is worth a bet at plus two sixty. I don't

760
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 5: think that the draw is going to be out of

761
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 5: the equation throughout all ninety minutes. I think this one

762
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 5: has one team up one nothing, the other team maybe

763
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 5: pegs one late, you know, to get to one one.

764
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 5: So anything correlated to that, whether you want to play

765
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 5: the nil nail when, whether you want to play an under,

766
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 5: or whether you want to play the draw. I think

767
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 5: that's how this match sets up. I don't think either

768
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 5: team is going to be looking to take many chances. Sam,

769
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 5: So what do you feel about your three lines here

770
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 5: going forward after that Serbia match? What do you think

771
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 5: about the betting market here for Denmark and England on Thursday?

772
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you kind of hit the nail on

773
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 3: the head. You said you weren't really too impressed with

774
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: England going forward. And the most annoying thing, Michael is

775
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 3: that we have got two components to make every single matchup.

776
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 3: Like people should be watching these games and think for

777
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 3: England the good our opponents should be coming off the

778
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 3: pitch thinking well, we've we've absolutely run ragged there, twenty

779
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 3: plus shots. We were lucky to get away with a

780
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 3: two nil. But it just doesn't happen that way. And

781
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest annoyance. Like as a spectacle,

782
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 3: England versus Serbia saw less expected ghost generated than any

783
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: Premier League game last season zero point six nine h G.

784
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 3: The eleven shots in the game split Serbia six England five,

785
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 3: which is funny, was also the lowest of any of

786
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 3: the three hundred and twenty two games at the Euros

787
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 3: on record since nineteen eighty. So look for the first

788
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 3: thirty minutes England were great. Serbia couldn't get into the game.

789
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 3: England knocked it around the park with minimal fuss. Saker

790
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 3: gave his man the run around. Dude Bellingham, the eventual

791
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 3: man of the match, played like a man possessed. And

792
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 3: then we started to sit deeper and deeper. We no

793
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 3: longer held on to the ball and moved it with

794
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 3: any kind of conviction that there's always going to be

795
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 3: a top like times in international football where you're going

796
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 3: to struggle. You're never going to have it all your

797
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 3: own way for ninety minutes. And it Serbia to build

798
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 3: up ahead of Steam, although that often dissipated with a

799
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 3: whimper really because they flattered to deceive, as we've touched upon.

800
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 3: And I'm not sure whether England's sitting back so much

801
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 3: due to instruction from Southgate or like a lethargy after

802
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 3: a tiring season, like you'd have to lean towards maybe

803
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,879
Speaker 3: a bit of both. Considering its Southgate and we did

804
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: enough on the night. There are some positives for teams,

805
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,720
Speaker 3: but look, it's just not going to happen under this manager.

806
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 3: So it's fair enough. We've got Denmark up next, a

807
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 3: better side and build up and a team likely not

808
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 3: to be as toothless as Serbia was. They struggled in

809
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 3: their open and as the clock ticked down. They were

810
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 3: comfortable in the first half, but Slovenia always looked dangerous

811
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 3: in position went advancing up the pitch into the second half.

812
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 3: Theyremark were lucky to get a draw in the end,

813
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,919
Speaker 3: and if Slovenia can cause that many headaches, then I'm

814
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 3: sure England can. The question for me is like what

815
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 3: we're going to get from England. Are they going to

816
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 3: go ahead and see the game out again? I don't

817
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 3: think this would be for the ages. I'm not sure

818
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 3: if I'm going to take a bet, but if a

819
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: gun was to my head, England win and under five

820
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 3: goes is a potential for me. It just shy of

821
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:12,439
Speaker 3: even money back England and to have enough at both

822
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 3: ends to one limit Denmark and also find one or

823
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 3: two goals. And if the Serbia performance is what we

824
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 3: can expect going forward from England in the group stages

825
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: in terms of approach than anything unders related. Coupled with

826
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 3: maybe England finding joy or not losing the game, or

827
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 3: like a pro England player props selection, maybe that could

828
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 3: be a way to go. England had twelve touches in

829
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 3: Serbia's box in their one they'll win on match day one,

830
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 3: So does that change here? Are we going to see

831
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: a flurry of opportunities in the second game against a

832
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 3: better team? I'm not so sure. So yeah, maybe England

833
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 3: to win, but under five goes I think I like

834
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: the sound of that.

835
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be on under two and a half at

836
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five. You know, Sam, Obviously the talking

837
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 1: point was Phil Foden right about how irrelevant he was

838
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: during the match, but I think it was in a

839
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 1: way a problem of how England was actually setting up.

840
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 1: So you know, Bellingham is someone who operates really well

841
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 1: in that left half space, which if you're going to

842
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 1: play Foden now wide, he's someone that's much better at

843
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,800
Speaker 1: inverting and playing more centrally in that type of area.

844
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: So when Bellingham's already there, it makes it really hard

845
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: for Foden to find that space and get into the

846
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,720
Speaker 1: game there when you isolate him out on the left,

847
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,359
Speaker 1: like we've seen this a couple of times when he's

848
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: tried to play on the left for Manchester City. He's

849
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 1: just not as good in that role as he is

850
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 1: in a central role. I think the other problem with

851
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: England is once they went ahead, you know, everybody got

852
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 1: really excited that Trent was playing in the midfield.

853
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 4: You know, me included.

854
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 1: I thought it was like, oh cool, you know, we're

855
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: finally playing him in a role where we think suits

856
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 1: him really well. The problem was is though that Bellingham

857
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 1: kept dropping deep, like even Foden kept dropping deep. Rice

858
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: was already there, So you had three or four guys

859
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: that were dropping deep and they were all too close

860
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 1: to the ball. And so yes, in a way, you

861
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: can do a lot of one touch passing and play

862
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 1: through opponents who will man mark you like Serbia will.

863
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 1: But when you're not as good a doing that, all

864
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: it just results in is just you know, eventually you

865
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 1: get pressed and you got to send the ball along.

866
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: And that's kind of where England struggled throughout the game

867
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: as it went on more and more. Denmark is a

868
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: really good defensive team, like they since September of twenty

869
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: twenty one, they're only allowing point seven to one expected

870
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes. This is obviously a rematch of

871
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 1: the Yugro semifinals in twenty twenty one, that match before

872
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: extra time because you know, England got the penalty and

873
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: you know, can got the rebounds, so their extug got

874
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 1: kind of inflated. From both teams. There was only one

875
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 1: shot that had an XG rating over point one still

876
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: as two same managers, like, still pretty much the same

877
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 1: typical game plan from both teams.

878
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 4: So I think this sets up as a really really

879
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 4: low event type match.

880
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 1: I think England's probably if they do go ahead, they're

881
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 1: probably going to try to sit on this one. Like

882
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 1: I met, you know, I do think England is the

883
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 1: best defensive team in the world. I think that's the

884
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: positive that you can take away from this match is

885
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,720
Speaker 1: that Serby tried all of those crosses and they couldn't

886
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: even get one decent chance off of them. And the

887
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 1: thing that England does better than I think a lot

888
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: of the teams in this tournament is underdogs. The way

889
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: that they can beat teams that are you know, these

890
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: top sives is by being effective in transition or being

891
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 1: effective on set pieces, right, Like that's where the game

892
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: kind of evens out. England is, for my money, probably

893
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 1: the best transition defense this entire tournament, and they allowed

894
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 1: the lowest shots per set piece during qualifying, and we're

895
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 1: really good against Serbia as well.

896
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 4: So if you take away those.

897
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: Two things that an underdog can do to you, you

898
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: limit the opportunities that they can get in terms of

899
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 1: front of goals. So I only projected one point six

900
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 1: goals for this match, which I think is really really

901
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 1: like what which I thought was really low, And then

902
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 1: when I looked into it more, I was like, oh wow.

903
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 1: Both these defenses are basically allowing nothing for the past

904
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 1: three years. So in five of England's twenty one MATT

905
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:10,800
Speaker 1: non friendly matches since September twenty twenty one, they've allowed

906
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 1: over one expected goal and not a single opponent has

907
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 1: created over two expected goals against them. They're an elite defense.

908
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,439
Speaker 1: So I really like Hunter two and a half goals

909
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: of minus one thirty five. I think this sets up

910
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: is a very very low event type match.

911
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 5: Okay, So all three of us are kind of seeing

912
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 5: that one the same in different ways, which brings us

913
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 5: to the last match we will talk about for this episode.

914
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,359
Speaker 2: As I said earlier, I will be back to.

915
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:39,959
Speaker 5: Do the remaining six matches of group Stage Round two

916
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 5: in a couple of days, but we will finish this

917
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 5: off before giving out our best bet with Spain and

918
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 5: Italy the heavyweight tie of this round for sure.

919
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 2: Spain is plus one fifteen, Italy is plus.

920
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:54,279
Speaker 5: Two sixty on the three way line at bet three

921
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 5: six five, and the draw is plus two twenty five.

922
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 5: I hate to say it, but I've got really high

923
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 5: hopes for this match. I think that this one could

924
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 5: be a ton of fun with the way that both

925
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 5: those teams. These teams looked in their first match, and

926
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 5: some of that might be because of how the Italy

927
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 5: match started, and so maybe that's the one drawback here

928
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 5: is that they were forced into into a situation, whereas

929
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 5: Spain they were great. I'm obviously a lot of people

930
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 5: talking about Lamina Ya Male with the sixteen year old

931
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 5: for Spain looking just ridiculously good against Croatia. I do

932
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 5: think there's maybe a shred of value on Italy here

933
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 5: BJ at plus two sixty.

934
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 2: But I think that this one is a good live

935
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 2: betting game.

936
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 5: Actually, Like if you're if you're kicking your feet up

937
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 5: and just gonna enjoy the spectacle, this one feels like

938
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 5: it as soon as one big moment happens, there's going

939
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 5: to be more. It feels like that, that's how this

940
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 5: one's going to play out. So even if it's nil

941
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 5: nil after the first thirty minutes, you can look it

942
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 5: up live overs. Because I think that one goal here

943
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 5: really changes everything. And that's an obvious statement to make

944
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 5: for a soccer match, but the point is I think

945
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 5: that this thing has a lot of legs to it,

946
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 5: like there's going to be some twist and turns with

947
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:11,879
Speaker 5: the way these two teams play, So I think there's

948
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 5: plenty of goals to come, no matter when that first

949
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 5: one is scored. So that's how I'm looking at it.

950
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 5: And then, like I said, I do think that Italy

951
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 5: maybe a shred, shred tiny shred of value BJ.

952
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking to play Italy plus a half here,

953
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:28,319
Speaker 1: but the best price you can find right now is

954
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 1: minus one forty.

955
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 4: I would like closer to minus one thirty.

956
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: So the line on Spain here has come down, so

957
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 1: it was closer to a pick them around plus one

958
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 1: fifty ish, and then it came after Spain one came

959
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 1: down to the plus one thirty range, and then Italy

960
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 1: beat Albania two to one, and now we're down to

961
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen, which I'm not sure I typically agree

962
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 1: with thought Spain were really good against Croatia, but they

963
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 1: have also have shown that they have a key flaw,

964
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 1: and I think it's a flaw that Italy.

965
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 4: Can really ounce on.

966
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 1: No, the match that I go back to is England's

967
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 1: when England beat Italy three to one in qualifying in England,

968
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 1: Italy went down early and then the onus was kind

969
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 1: of on them, and over the second half of that

970
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 1: match they actually played really well. And the way that

971
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 1: they are able to act, the way that they're able

972
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 1: to create overloads in passing triangles in wide areas, is

973
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: a place where they can really exploit Spain because the

974
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: way Spain that build up, it's typically you know, either

975
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 1: three two or two to three type of build up,

976
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 1: but because they press so many guys forward in build up,

977
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 1: they leave themselves very exposed in transition or balls over

978
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: the top, which is something that Italy absolutely can do.

979
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 1: Luciano Spletti is an incredible manager. I think he's, for

980
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 1: my money, the second best manager in this entire tournament.

981
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 1: He's so adaptable to every situation, Like if a situation

982
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,720
Speaker 1: like this, he'll have his team set up to play

983
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: incredibly direct.

984
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,439
Speaker 4: He's not just going to build out of the back.

985
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 1: He's going to have them set up most likely to

986
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: press Spain's build up and try to cause problems, and

987
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: if he doesn't, he'll have them set up and very organized.

988
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 1: But the problem is is right now, you know, I

989
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 1: have Spain projected at plus one fifty seven. So it's

990
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 1: just very very difficult with how much how often Spain

991
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: controls the ball, right, Like, it's always kind of difficult

992
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 1: to play an underdog there because you know, as you saw,

993
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 1: the second that you leave a little bit of vacated space,

994
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: they will open you up in an instant. So waiting

995
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 1: for a number better number on Italy, I think it's

996
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 1: gonna be a great match.

997
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:34,399
Speaker 4: I agree with you, Michael.

998
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:38,879
Speaker 1: I think it's a very interesting tactical match because I'll

999
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 1: be honest, like from a future's perspective, both these teams

1000
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: are kind of interesting at the prices that they're at

1001
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:46,280
Speaker 1: right now. I'll be honest, like, I'm kind of interested

1002
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 1: in Italy at sixteen to one, but I think this

1003
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: is a match that really will be a litmus test

1004
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 1: for them of can they hang with an elite team

1005
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: that's going to control the ball against them? Right Because

1006
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 1: they've lost England twice in qualifying as like the the

1007
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 1: poster of like no, they couldn't do it. But yeah,

1008
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna sit back and wait for a better

1009
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 1: number on Italy and honestly just enjoyed this match.

1010
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think that from the future's perspective, probably

1011
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 5: if you are looking to dip your toe into the

1012
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,400
Speaker 5: Italy waters, maybe the best outcome for you is like

1013
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 5: a well played one zer lost because will keep the

1014
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 5: number there and whatever, because a win and we'll see

1015
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 5: Italy gets slashed here.

1016
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 2: Sam, what do you think here? Sping in Italy?

1017
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, the biggest match in match day two? Do

1018
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:33,399
Speaker 3: we reckon? Gents? I think so Netherlands versus France may

1019
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: have something to say about that, But if you're of

1020
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,959
Speaker 3: a certain generation growing up with football in the early

1021
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 3: two thousands, then this is a matchup that gets to

1022
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 3: tongue's wagon. I've seen Italia used to describe Italy's open

1023
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 3: performance by James horn Cast in the last couple of days,

1024
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 3: so this is obviously ticky tack of us tick Italian.

1025
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:56,720
Speaker 3: I'm really looking forward to it, and under Spiletti you'd

1026
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 3: say gone other days where Italy take on Spain, soak

1027
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 3: up everything they've got, Gelini and the like. I expect them,

1028
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 3: like BJ said, to give as good as they get here.

1029
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,280
Speaker 3: Speletti said after the game, we'd like to do something

1030
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: that isn't rigid, that's quite free, give the players and

1031
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 3: their talent freedom of expression, whilst being an organized team.

1032
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 3: At the same time, the more unpredictability there is, the

1033
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,840
Speaker 3: more a surprise it becomes for our opponents. And I

1034
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 3: feel that we'll really trouble with Spanish back line, who

1035
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 3: weren't as comfortable as the free nil win against Croatis suggests.

1036
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 3: On another day, they certainly don't lock in a clean sheet.

1037
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 3: Conceded two point three XG with a penalty that was

1038
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 3: obviously missed. Spiletti went on to say we liked ourselves

1039
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 3: too much. I saw a lot of good things, but

1040
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 3: they have to lead somewhere. So although happy with the performance,

1041
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 3: he wanted more in the final third. He wanted more

1042
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:51,840
Speaker 3: than the two to one scoreline they left with. He

1043
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 3: was highlighting their well. I assume the need for more

1044
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,840
Speaker 3: defense splitting passes and ghost throwing opportunities rather than possession

1045
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 3: at that end of the pitch. For possession's sake, and

1046
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:04,879
Speaker 3: I think they take the game to Spain. Here went

1047
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 3: in possession and they target the weakest area of the

1048
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:10,399
Speaker 3: pitch in Spanish colors, the back form, and I think

1049
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 3: we see some goals in the Spanish camp. Rodri and

1050
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 3: Morato went off in the second half. Dila Fuente said

1051
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 3: it's nothing important. Morata got a knock, Rodri was fatigue

1052
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 3: and they said it was probably intelligent that they both

1053
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 3: asked for the change. So I expect them both to

1054
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 3: be starting from the off. And yeah, Croatia out boxed

1055
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 3: Spain in the expected goos stakes, more possession than Spain,

1056
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 3: and I think that was the first time in one

1057
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 3: hundred and folks its games you've probably seen the start

1058
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:44,319
Speaker 3: making the rounds, And yeah, Spain were clinical, something we

1059
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 3: might not associate with a side led by Alvarra and

1060
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 3: Morato as the team's focal point. There wasn't one bit

1061
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 3: of me that thought he was going to score when

1062
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: he was edging towards go for that one v one opportunity.

1063
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 3: But to my delight, and I'm sure you'll buy into

1064
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 3: this Marata loving, he looked composed and maybe clinical, you'd say,

1065
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 3: which is no ice, which is a lovely change. Yeah.

1066
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,680
Speaker 3: But for Spain, yeah, I think that the face their

1067
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 3: defense will face stiffer tests and that's exactly what they've

1068
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 3: got coming up against Italy. So all like goes at

1069
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,359
Speaker 3: both ends both teams to score is to stand out

1070
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,879
Speaker 3: for me again. At minus one three three, you can

1071
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 3: take over two point two five Asian goals at minus

1072
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 3: one on one, I think that both that both could

1073
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:30,840
Speaker 3: waits into the game. I'm expecting a good one plateful.

1074
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1075
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:33,399
Speaker 2: Oh that's kind of seeing that one the same too.

1076
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 5: So let's wrap this thing up with our favorite bet

1077
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:38,320
Speaker 5: for these six matches.

1078
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 2: BJ you can go.

1079
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 1: First England Denmark under two and a half goals at

1080
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five. England played a very incredibly low

1081
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 1: event type match against Serbia where there was only point

1082
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 1: seven to one expected goals total created, and it kind

1083
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: of just blends into what England is under Southgate. If

1084
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 1: they go ahead, they tend to play a little bit

1085
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 1: more passively, but they are the best defensive team in

1086
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 1: the world. Since September of twenty twenty one, they're only

1087
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 1: allowing point five seven expected goals per ninety minutes. Even

1088
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 1: in the semifinal they played against Denmark, at the last

1089
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 1: Euros there was only one shot in regular time with

1090
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,960
Speaker 1: an ex curating over point one. Denmark will probably come

1091
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 1: out in a very similar type of defensive game.

1092
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 4: Plan that Serbia had.

1093
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 1: England's having a little bit of difficulties with build up,

1094
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 1: giving better structures getting the ball in the final third

1095
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:26,320
Speaker 1: and creating more dangerous chances. So I think this sets

1096
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: up for generally a very low event type match. So

1097
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 1: I like under two and a half goals. I minus

1098
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 1: one thirty five, all.

1099
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 5: Right, I'll take a shot here and go with the

1100
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 5: Scotts as my favorite bet on the money line against Switzerland.

1101
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 5: I think that this number is going to get out

1102
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 5: of control. So when we start to see the money

1103
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 5: continue pouring in on Scotland, I think you can strike

1104
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 5: plus three twenty Right now. It's fine as well, but

1105
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 5: I'm expecting a much better performance from Steve Clark and

1106
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 5: the Tartan Army against the Switzerland time that I still

1107
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:59,879
Speaker 5: think a Switzerland team that can be gettable. Don't take

1108
00:54:59,880 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 5: the gap is this wide. We're just reacting to Scotland

1109
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 5: getting pummeled by Germany, Switzerland pummeling Hungary. So I'm gonna

1110
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 5: take a little risk here. And go to Scotland to

1111
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 5: bull the upset, Sam, what about you?

1112
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:16,760
Speaker 3: Ongoing Slovenia versus Serbia, both teams to score minus one twenty.

1113
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 3: I just think that CESCO and Spora up top for Slovenia.

1114
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 3: I think they're going to cause that Serbian back line

1115
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 3: all sorts of problems and equally at the other end,

1116
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:31,200
Speaker 3: that Slovenian defense look a bit shaky and I can't

1117
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 3: I just can't see Serbia not getting in on the

1118
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 3: action too. So to get both teams to score minus

1119
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 3: one twenty just feels like a no brainer to me.

1120
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, both teams to score Slovenia Serbia.

1121
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 5: Okay, that will do it for this episode of Wondergo.

1122
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 5: We will be back in a couple of days to

1123
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 5: preview the back half of round two of the group stage.

1124
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:51,239
Speaker 2: But until then, best of luck with all your bets.

1125
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 5: Thank you to anyone who's rated, reviewed, subscribe, and thank

1126
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 5: you to our producer Noah for all the hard work

1127
00:55:57,080 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 5: on the back end.

1128
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1129
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,719
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1130
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler