WEBVTT - 8/16/25: John Mearsheimer BREAKS DOWN Trump Putin Summit 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:01.599 Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here. 0:00:01.680 --> 0:00:05.200 Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:07.840 and we are so excited about what that means for 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:08.720 the future of the show. 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:10.760 This is the only place where you can find honest 0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:13.239 perspectives from the left and the right that simply does 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:14.680 not exist anywhere else. 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:17.080 So if that is something that's important to you, please 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.599 go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.920 you'll access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.600 all put together for you every morning in your inbox. 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:27.560 We need your help to build the future of independent 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:29.920 news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:34.199 dot com. All right, hello everybody, Happy Saturday. It is 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.760 Ryan and I here to break down the everything that's 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.559 gone on in the news. And you may have noticed 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:42.639 that we actually have a very special guest who we're 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.479 very honored to be joined by, Professor John Meerscheimer the 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.479 University of Chicago, an intellectual hero of mine and a 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:50.400 great friend of the show. Sir, thank you so much 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:51.000 for joining us. 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:53.440 We really appreciate it. Thank you for having me. 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:56.160 It's my pleasure to be here with you and Ryan. 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.680 Absolutely, sir, So we are going to go through with 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:02.240 you everything that happen yesterday at the Trump Putin summit, 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.000 as well as some of the information that is now 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:08.479 coming out as a result. So just for everybody purposes, 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:11.720 we're recording this around nine am Eastern time. Things could 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:15.479 obviously change with the diplomatic situation, but this is generally 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.720 where things stand as of right now. So Griffin, could 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:20.720 we go ahead and start to kind of the show 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:26.679 of the summit where Trump made a big grand gesture 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:31.560 at the in Alaska. At that summit, greeting Putin with 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:35.840 the red carpet lined with US fighter jets, he flew 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:40.040 a B two bomber escort over Putin's head as a 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:45.280 show of a tremendous military might. That seemed to kind 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:47.800 of be the tone that Trump wanted to set a 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:51.760 reminder to Putin quote whose boss? But things very quickly 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:55.560 changed from their professor. What we started to see was 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:59.760 a nearly three hour three on three meeting between Donald Trump, 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:05.400 Secretary Rubio, Steve Wikoff, two of Putin's advisors, and their translators. 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.880 There was a scheduled lunch which they eventually missed, and 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:12.600 they announced in a flurry of changes of press conference 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.080 at that press conference. It really isn't even fair to 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.120 call it a press conference, is more of a press announcement. 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:22.640 Lasted about twelve minutes. Putin actually spoke first, So Griffin, 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.080 let's go ahead and take a listen to putin what 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:30.160 he had to say, specifically his framing of an agreement 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:33.799 that they had had the Trump later rejects, but the 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:37.960 contours of what the setting piece is for what follows 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.400 after the summit. Griffin, let's go ahead and take a listen. 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:40.720 Please. 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:45.680 I expect that today's agreements will be the starting point 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:48.600 not only for the solution of the Ukrainian issue, but 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:51.680 also will help us bring back business like and pragmatic 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.320 relations between Russia and the US. And in the end, 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:56.519 I would like to add one more thing. I'd like 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:00.400 to remind you of twenty twenty two. During the last 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:04.800 contact with the previous administration, I tried to convince my 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:10.080 previous American colleague, we should not the situation should not 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:15.840 be brought to the point of no return when it 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:17.640 would come to hostilities. 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:21.560 So Professor, he initially framed things as an agreement, but 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.960 the real top line was that there was no ceasefire 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:29.440 that was announced, and it appears that he rejected the European, 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:34.040 Ukrainian and US position for an immediate ceasefire, just broadly. 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:37.640 Having watched Putin's full eight minute statement and everything, as 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:40.240 well as some of the positions that the United States 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:43.720 tried to force onto Putin in the head of this summit, 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:46.960 what's your reaction so far just to putin the way 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.320 that he handled himself there with Donald Trump, and what 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:50.920 does it tell us about the broader situation. 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:56.560 Well, I think that Putin obviously did a brilliant job 0:03:56.680 --> 0:04:00.920 of handling himself in yes day's meeting. 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:02.800 There's just no question about that. 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:07.920 And that's really all he had to do was come 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:14.080 and look diplomatic, look smart, look respectful of President Trump, 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.360 and it would do a great deal to put an 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:21.560 end to his isolation in the West and give him 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:25.040 real legitimacy. And he came in and is I think 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:30.560 almost everybody expected. He did the job, and he was 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:34.799 very effective in that way. And then there's the whole 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:39.599 question of the ceasefire, which you raise just for the 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:45.120 audience's purposes or for clarification for the audience. It's important 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.080 to understand that there's a difference between a peace agreement 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:52.720 and a ceasefire. And really, what the Russians want is 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:56.120 not a cease fire, because they're winning on the battlefield. 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.440 What they want is a peace agreement. And what the 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:02.600 West wants and the Ukrainians want. 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:03.440 Is a ceasefire. 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:09.920 And Trump tried to convince Putin that what we need 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:15.840 here is a ceasefire. And what resulted is that Putin 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:19.520 said there will be no ceasefire. We have to have 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:23.919 a peace agreement. And in fact, Trump has now backed 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:29.480 off from demanding a ceasefire. And he said to someone 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:33.520 after the meeting that the best solution to this problem 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:37.880 is to go directly to a peace agreement, in other words, 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:41.800 putting the ceasefire that the Ukrainians and the Europeans and 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:45.279 many people in the United States want aside. He's saying 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:50.200 that's a non starter after having talked to Putin. So 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.000 I think, in terms of the clip that you just showed, 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.800 that's the most important subjective point. 0:05:56.000 --> 0:06:00.080 And can you impact for people why Ukraine would be 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:05.560 reluctant to reach a peace agreement versus an immediate ceasefire, Like, 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.560 what is the advantage of one over the other to Ukraine. 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:17.440 Well, the advantages of a ceasefire are mainly that Ukraine 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:23.680 is losing on the battlefield and the West cannot do 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:27.560 much to help it at this point in time. So 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.240 if you can create a ceasefire, put an end to 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:35.479 the fighting on the battlefield, that gives the Ukrainians a 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:39.600 respite Number one and number two, it allows them to 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.960 get more arms from the West to build up their 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:47.039 forces and then put up a better fight against the 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:51.479 Russians moving forward once the fighting restarts, in other words, 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:55.480 once the ceasefire ends. But the Russians are not dumkoffs, 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.839 and they understand if they're winning it would be nuts, 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.240 to put it bluntly, them to stop the war when 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:06.960 they're winning, allow the Ukrainians to recover and then fight 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.440 more effectively at some point down the road. So the 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:13.640 Russians have no interest in a ceasefire. Ukraine and the 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:18.200 West really like the idea. What the Russians want is 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.640 they want a peace agreement. They want to settle this one, 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:24.880 but they want to settle it on their terms. It's 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:30.160 very important to understand this. The Russians view Ukraine joining 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:35.600 NATO as an existential threat. This war for them is existential, 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:39.240 and they have a set of demands that they will 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:44.640 not compromise on near three principal demands. One is that 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:49.800 Ukraine and the West recognize that Russia has a next 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:54.560 those four oh blosts that they now partially occupy four 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:59.040 oh bloss in Ukraine plus Crimea. That's demand number one. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:04.320 Number two is that Ukraine be a neutral state. That 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:07.040 means it can't be a NATO and there can't be 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:13.480 Western security guarantees, especially a security guarantee from the United States. Ukraine, 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:19.000 from the Russian perspective, has to be neutral. Third demand 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:23.560 is that Ukraine has to disarm, not completely, but disarmed 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:27.000 to the point where it has no offensive military capability, 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:32.240 i e. It can't threaten Russia. Now, these are three 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:36.079 harsh demands from the Ukrainian point of view and from 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:40.160 the West point of view, these are unacceptable demands to 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:45.480 the Ukrainians and to most people in the West, and 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:49.240 this is why you can't get a peace agreement. So 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:53.000 what we have here is the Russians want a peace agreement, 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.440 the Ukrainians in the West have no interest in a 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:59.320 peace agreement. The West and the Ukrainians want to cease fire, 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:02.439 and the ru Ussians have no interest in a ceasefire, 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.440 and the end result is you have a very short 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.200 meeting and you have no agreement. 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:10.040 Very well, said sir. 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:12.200 Let's go ahead and take a listen to Donald Trump, 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:16.200 because with that context, everything that he says begins to 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:18.800 make no sense. There's no deal until there's a deal. 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:20.840 I need to get on the phone with NATO and 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:22.520 with Ukraine, which has now happened, and we're going to 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.880 give everybody the results. But it's still actually really the 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:28.120 framework that I want people to go into with the 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.520 Trump press conference again, press announcement is, I have never 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:34.240 known this man not to take an extraordinary amount of questions. 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.640 Even in the Helsinki summit of twenty eighteen, it's three 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.800 minutes roughly that he speaks. It's clear that he is 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:45.120 incredibly muted, both emotionally, you know, after his meeting with Putin, 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:48.240 and I think what he's realizing in real time is 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.800 the mistake you know that he made in agreeing to 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.320 these European and Ukrainian quote red lines, going into the 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:58.280 summit itself and starting to understand the exact puzzle that 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:00.360 you just laid out. So with that guy, let's go 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.000 ahead and take a listen to Donald Trump and what 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:03.680 he had to say. 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:09.120 We've made some headway. So there's no deal. Until there's 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:12.880 a deal. I will call up NATO in a little while, 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:16.800 I will call up the various people that I think 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:19.800 are appropriate, and all of course call up Presidents Olynsky 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:21.240 and tell him about today's meeting. 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:24.360 It's ultimately up with them. They're going to have to 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:27.200 agree with what Marco. 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.360 And Steve and some of the great people from the 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:35.720 Trump administration who've come here, Scott and John right, thank 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:39.920 you very much. We have some of our really great leaders. 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.719 They've been doing a phenomenal job. We also have some 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:48.040 tremendous Russian business representatives here and I think you know, 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.760 everybody wants to deal with us. We've become the hottest 0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:52.959 country anywhere in the world at a very short period 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.280 of time, and we look forward to that. We look 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:59.040 forward to dealing. We try and get this over with. 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:04.520 We really made some great progress today. I've always had 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:10.360 a fantastic relationship with President Putin. With Vladimir we had 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:18.360 many many tough meetings, good meetings. We were interfered with 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.080 by the Russia. Russia Russia host. 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:21.600 All right, Griffin, you can go ahead and come out 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:24.319 of this, because that's effectively everything that we do need 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:25.880 to know, which is he said there's no deal in 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:27.480 heres the deal I need to get on the phone 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.440 with the Ukrainians and the Europeans. And now, Professor, we 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:32.800 actually do have the result of that. Can we go 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:37.000 ahead and put Donald Trump's truth please up on the screen, 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.800 because this lays out exactly what you said, and I 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.000 can go ahead and read from it. It says a 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.600 great and very successful day in Alaska. The meeting with 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.079 President Putin went very well, as did a late night 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:50.839 phone call. But he says, quote, it was determined by 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:52.920 all that the best way to end the horrific war 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.480 between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:57.920 peace agreement which would end the war and not a 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:02.720 mere ceasefire agreement often does not hold up. President Zelenski 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.800 will be coming to DC the Oval Office on Monday afternoon. 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.000 If it all works out, we will then schedule a 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:12.880 meeting with President Putin immediately. Sir, we also got Zelenski's 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.040 reaction and kind of the laying out of where I 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:17.839 think things are going to trip up, So let's go 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.800 ahead and put that up there as well, because it's 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:24.280 very similar to the ceasefire demand that was made initially. 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:27.480 He says killings must stop as soon as possible. The 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:30.280 fire must cease both on the battlefield and in the sky, 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:33.679 as well as our poor infrastructure. All Ukrainian POWs and 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:36.600 civilians must be released. Pressure must be maintained with the 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.959 aggression and occupation. In my conversation with President Trump, I 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.680 said that sanctions could be strengthened if there's no trilateral 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:46.000 meeting with Russia. Sanctions are an effective tool, and then 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:49.600 security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.360 with the involvement of both the europe and the US. 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:56.679 All important to Ukraine must be discussed with Ukraine's participation. 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.840 So it appears, you know, given the context serve everything 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:03.400 that you've laid out here, that we see that Trump 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.680 is now dropping the initial ceasefire demand, which effectively, as 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.559 you said, wouldn't make a lot of battlefield sense for Russia. 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:13.360 But on the peace agreement terms, he's accepting this. European 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:15.359 or at the very least, the European and the Ukrainians 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:19.160 are effectively demanding the same ceasefire that Putin just rejected, 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:21.960 as well as a laundry, list of other things that 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.959 are unacceptable to the Russian So how do you expect 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:28.360 then the Monday meeting to go with President Zelenski in 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.280 the Oval office. 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:38.400 Well, I think there's one very important dimension to what 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.040 Trump said that we don't want to lose sight of, 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:46.199 and that is I think he's passing the torch to Zelensky. 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:47.839 Yes, I think in. 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:52.400 A very important way, Trump has come to understand that 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:56.320 he can't settle this one right. There's no way he 0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:00.679 can agree Trump to a peace agreement and convince the Ukranians, 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:04.600 the Europeans, and the Western foreign policy establishment that that's 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:08.840 the smart thing to do, right, And he can't convince 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:10.880 Putin to agree to a ceasefire. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:12.440 So what can Trump do? 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.920 And of course what Zelensky says he should do is 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.400 put secondary sanctions on Russia. And we could talk about that, 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.720 because this meeting was in good part about secondary sanctions 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:29.520 and Trump's interest in secondary sanctions in the past. But 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:34.000 Trump understands, he was asked afterwards, what this means for 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.680 secondary sanctions. There's going to be no secondary sanctions at 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:41.160 least at this point, says Trump. So the sanctions are 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.960 off the table. The cease fire is off the table, 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.040 and Trump is basically agreed with Putin that you got 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:50.960 to go directly. He said this, you got to go 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:54.960 directly for a peace agreement. So Zelensky comes to the 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:59.760 White House. What does this mean. He's basically saying, I 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:05.200 that Zelenski and the Europeans can now sit down with 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.240 Putin and they can work this out. If they need me, 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.840 I'll be there, but it's up to them. I'm not 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:15.520 going to cut a deal and then try and force 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.040 it down the throats of the Ukrainians and the Europeans 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:21.200 because they don't want to go along with me. So 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.680 if you listen to the press conference, this is what 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:29.080 you were playing. He's said, it's ultimately up to them. 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.040 He said he's going to call NATO, He's going to 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:36.320 call the Ukrainians. But what happens is and these were 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.840 his words and the clip that you played it is 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:44.920 ultimately up to them. Very important words. Yes, And I 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:49.200 think Trump just understands he can't solve this one, and 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:50.760 he's correct, he can't. 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:51.360 Solve this one. 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.120 He might have been able to solve it if he 0:15:55.240 --> 0:16:00.680 had been strategically smart from the get go, but since 0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:04.400 he talked, took office on January twentieth. Up to now, 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:10.680 he has behaved in a remarkably foolish and uninformed way 0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:14.120 in terms of dealing with the Russians. What he finally 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:19.360 figured out yesterday after talking to Putin he should have 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:24.040 figured out before he moved into the White House on 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:30.640 January twentieth. The Russians have had one position on this 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:36.120 issue since at least last June fourteenth. Last June fourteenth, 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:41.480 this is June fourteenth, twenty twenty four. Right, Putin said 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.280 very clearly what the Russian demands were. They were consistent 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.640 with what he had said before June fourteenth. 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:48.160 Twenty twenty four. 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.760 And he has not changed those demands at all since 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:55.800 June fourteenth, twenty twenty four. So why didn't Trump and 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:59.840 company understand exactly what those demands were and work around 0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:03.520 them starting on January twentieth. I don't know what the 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:06.000 answer is, but they didn't. So and the end result 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.280 is he finally figured it out yesterday. 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.159 And so from your perspective, it was the like the 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.000 Vladimir stop, we need to stop this on day one, 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:16.520 like that was all that was all a mistake, and 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:20.119 he needed to understand that he had to approach this 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.760 through the context of a broader peace agreement. Is that 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:28.160 is that what you would say was the mistake that I. 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:32.200 Think the fundamental mistake Ryan, is that the vast majority 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.800 of people in the foreign policy establishment refused to accept 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.800 the argument that the Russians see Ukraine in NATO. 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:41.639 As an existential threat. 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:47.040 It's an existential threat for Putin and the people around him, 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:50.760 and given it as an existential threat, they are willing 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:55.320 to fight a war, a major league war, to prevent 0:17:55.680 --> 0:18:01.439 Ukraine from joining NATO or having security guarantee from the West. 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:06.600 We can't get it through earth thick skulls here in 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:11.720 the West that Russia views Ukraine and NATO as an 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:16.400 existential threat, and we continue to play this game where 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:19.800 we have continued to play this game up until yesterday, 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:24.800 where we thought that Ukraine could have security guarantees from 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:29.720 the West, or maybe it could even join NATO, that 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:33.480 Ukraine could get that territory back that it's lost. 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:34.520 And so forth and so on. 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:39.520 We've been delusional up to now. And I believe that 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:43.359 the Ukrainians and the Europeans, and huge chunks of the 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:47.560 national security establishment here in the United States will remain 0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:52.720 delusional until the situation on the battlefield makes it impossible 0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:55.720 to continue along that foolish path. 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:56.240 Right. 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:59.000 It's very tragic the result that you're laying out, but 0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:02.040 it obviously, it is obviously the most likely. One of 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:04.360 the things Sarah I want to talk about is the 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:09.959 last grasp of the maximal pressurists is these secondary sanctions, 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:13.159 because Russia is already the most sanctioned country in the 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:16.880 world by the United States, and as Putin pointed out 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:19.720 actually in his press conference, he's like, yeah, our GDP 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:21.879 is up by twenty percent, you know, like we're actually 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:26.680 doing fine. Trump has tried his hands roughly at some 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:30.159 sort of these secondary sanctions with India. But you know, 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.480 it's very interesting that the Indian government has not changed 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.359 his position a single iota. And in fact, it was 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:39.280 a talking point of the Western security establishment that the 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:42.399 secondary sanctions on India were the reason that Putin agreed 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:44.879 to this summit in the first place. There does not 0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:48.000 seem to be hard evidence of that, given you know, 0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.960 now necessarily how the result of the peace talks happened, 0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:54.720 and especially because they didn't change their position. But does 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:56.920 that factor into how you say that the West has 0:19:56.920 --> 0:20:00.640 handled itself foolishly in believing that there's one more secret 0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:03.439 trick they might be able to pull to change the 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:05.480 strategic calculus of the Russians. 0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:09.560 Yes, I mean secondary sanctions are of enormous importance, and 0:20:09.600 --> 0:20:13.080 I believe this meeting was all about secondary sanctions. Now 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:16.560 you're saying to yourself, what exactly does John mean? You 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.480 want to remember that Trump in the weeks before this 0:20:20.640 --> 0:20:26.000 meeting was threatened name secondary sanctions on Russia, and what 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:29.960 that means is that you're effectively not going to sanction Russia, because, 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:33.320 as you pointed out, the Russians are so sanctioned at 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:36.320 this point that there are no more direct sanctions you 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.960 can put on the Russians that are meaningful. Secondary sanctions 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:44.080 mean that you're going to put sanctions on India and 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:48.000 China and a few other countries, but mainly India and 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:52.640 China if they continue to trade with Russia. In other words, 0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:57.560 if they continue to import Russian oil, well, they're not 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:01.320 going to work. We cannot put secondary sanctions on the Chinese. 0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:04.120 They have too much leverage over us because of rare 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:09.040 earths and magnets, and as you pointed out, the Indians 0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:12.560 have made it clear that secondary sanctions are not going 0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:14.920 to work with them, and if anything, it's going to 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:19.800 drive the Indians closer to the Russians. Just completely counterproductive. 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:25.399 So secondary sanctions don't work. So what happened here was 0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:28.640 Trump got himself into a real pickle. He had promised 0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:31.520 that he was going to put secondary sanctions on the 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:35.320 Russians by August eighth, So what does he do? A 0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:40.760 few days before August eighth? He sends Steve whitcoff Off 0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:46.000 to Moscow to talk with Putin about having a meeting 0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:49.919 the beating that took place yesterday. So if you have 0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:53.840 that meeting, then you don't have to put sanctions on 0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:58.240 the Russians secondary sanctions, which are again effectively sanctions on 0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:04.320 India and China. On August. What happens is Witkof goes 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:08.040 talks to Putin. Of course agrees to a meeting, because 0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:11.280 a meeting is mona from heaven for Putin, for reasons 0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:13.760 we talked about at the start of the show, right, 0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:18.919 he agrees, and Witkoff comes back tells Trump. Trump announces 0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:21.080 that they're going to have this meeting and he doesn't 0:22:21.119 --> 0:22:26.639 have to put secondary sanctions on the Russians on August eighth, 0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:30.520 he gets out of the pickle, and it's this meeting 0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:34.359 yesterday that does the trick. So one could argue that 0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:37.800 the meeting yesterday wasn't a way of victory for Trump 0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:43.000 because he got away from that promise. And furthermore, as 0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:45.560 we talked about before, it's very important to. 0:22:45.560 --> 0:22:48.679 Understand that he was asked after the. 0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:53.560 Meeting whether or not secondary sanctions would be put on 0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:57.280 the Russians, and he basically said that ship has sailed. 0:22:58.119 --> 0:23:00.720 So he has taken at least up to now. You 0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:03.439 can never know for sure with Trump, but he has 0:23:03.480 --> 0:23:07.600 at least for now solved that big problem that he had. Yeah, well, 0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:11.680 just to say, guys, the fact is that we have 0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:13.200 no cards to play. 0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:14.080 Here, right. 0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:16.040 He solved the problem, but as you pointed out, it 0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:17.840 was a problem of his own making. 0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:19.560 Solutely. 0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:24.320 Since with Ukraine coming next week, I want to ask 0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:26.960 you from Ukraine's perspective, and I'll put up I think 0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:31.480 this is roughly a fairly recent sense of where where 0:23:31.480 --> 0:23:34.200 the front lines are. You know, Ukraine, you know, still 0:23:34.240 --> 0:23:36.800 has access to the to the Black Sea along these 0:23:37.000 --> 0:23:41.200 if these lines were frozen from what I hear from Ukrainians, 0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:44.280 they say, okay, what it's actually just going to give 0:23:44.359 --> 0:23:47.399 Russia a chance to regroup and then they're going to 0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:51.280 attack again and completely cut us off from the Black Sea, 0:23:51.320 --> 0:23:54.680 and we will just be instead of a eighty percent 0:23:54.760 --> 0:23:56.800