1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,559 Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election. 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 5 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, 7 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: it just means the absolute world to have your support. 8 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, 9 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. 10 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: What do we have for a salt? Indeed, we do. 11 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: We are finally getting a little bit of clarity on 12 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: where the Senate is going, where the House is going, 13 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: where state legislatures are going, where key governor's races are going. 14 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: Got a lot of results in yesterday and over the weekends, 15 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: so we'll break all of that down for you and 16 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: bring you up to speed on the elections and where 17 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: things are going to stand in the next Congress. At 18 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: the same time, there is a lot of other news 19 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 1: going on in the world, in particular news coming out 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: of Ukraine. We've got actually Zelenski in Kerson right now 21 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: today after Russians were treated from that key city, so 22 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: we'll break down that for you. Also, more manic crazy 23 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: all over the place moves from elon Musk and Twitter, 24 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: so we'll have that update for you. And also Trump 25 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 1: is apparently launching his presidential campaign tomorrow, so we're going 26 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: to tell you what's going on there. He's getting a 27 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: lot of pushback from members of his own party, people 28 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: who used to support them. We'll bring you some of 29 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: those highlights, and we're actually going to do a live 30 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 1: stream of that announcement. We'll get that to that in 31 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: just a minute. First of all, we have another big announcement, 32 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: which is two more live shows on the calendar, live show, 33 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: Let's put it up there on the screen, Okay, town Hall, 34 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: New York City. We announced to our premium members over 35 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: the weekend for an exclusive pre sale. They are now 36 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: on sale to the general public. The link to that 37 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: those tickets will be in the description. December sixth, the 38 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: very next day, East Coast, we're very proud to present 39 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: Let's put the next one up there on the screen, Boston, Massachusetts, 40 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: the Wilbur Theater on December seventh, seven point thirty pm. 41 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: For both of those shows. The links to those tickets 42 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 1: will be down in the description. We're going to have 43 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: a great time, Crystal Saga and friends. The friends promised. 44 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: We've revamped a couple of different things from our previous 45 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: live shows, so it's going to be even bigger, even 46 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: better in preparation for the continuing around the country. And 47 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: as Crystal mentioned, live stream, let's go ahead and put 48 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: that on the start. So we're still we're still trying 49 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: to find a good slogan for now. This is the 50 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 1: placeholder road to the twenty twenty four elections. We will 51 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: be live tomorrow starting at eight pm Eastern Standard time. 52 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 1: We'll do a little bit of a normal ish type show. 53 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: At the top, we'll have Emily here, we'll have Ryan 54 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: in remotely, and then we will watch together the live 55 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: stream of Donald Trump's announcement for the presidential election presumptive announcement. 56 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: Nothing is official with Trump until it's actually official, and 57 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: then we'll break down a little bit of what it 58 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 1: means and all of that afterwards. So join us live 59 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: five eight pm Standard time, will go all the way 60 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:03,839 Speaker 1: as long as we need to, and then the next 61 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: morning it will be available in clips on the podcast 62 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: for everybody who is out there. So again, just to 63 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: be clear, not doing the normal show tomorrow morning. Instead, 64 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 1: we're doing the live stream in the evening with Ryan 65 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 1: and Emily to preview Trump's announcement and get into whatever 66 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: additional politics news there is. Sure we'll have new election 67 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 1: results and all of that as well. We'll watch it, 68 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 1: we'll do commentary on the other side. So instead of 69 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: the normal show tomorrow, that is what we're doing. There, 70 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: we go, Okay, that's right. The election. Yes, let's get 71 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: to the one thing we know for sure, which is 72 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: it has now been called Democrats will take control of 73 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: the Senate having won every toss up race except for Georgia, 74 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: which is going to a runoff in December. Raphael Wardock 75 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: had the edge in terms of the vote totals, although 76 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: it was quite close, and so that one will go 77 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: to a runoff, but it no longer sort of determines 78 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: control of the Senate. Not to say it doesn't ultimately matter. 79 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: It does. We'll get to that in just a moment. 80 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: So let's put this map up on the screen. The 81 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: New York Times does the these maps that I am 82 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: a little bit obsessed with. Basically, what they show is 83 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: where and how candidates either outperform Biden or outperformed Trump. 84 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: So leave us up on the screen for a minute. 85 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 1: The blue arrows are places where Senate candidates outperformed Biden's performance. 86 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: So you can see Pennsylvania stands out. Actually Ohio with 87 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: Tim Ryan, even though he lost, that stands out. Kentucky. 88 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: That was a surprising one. Eastern Kentucky in particular. Charles 89 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: Booker was a Senate candidate there and I know he 90 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: spent a lot of time cultivating relationships in eastern Kentucky, 91 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: so that was kind of surprising. Missouri as well. Again, 92 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: these are seats that went to Republicans as expected, but 93 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: Democrats outperform. You can see also out west quite a 94 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,359 Speaker 1: bit Oregon. You can see Colorado shifted pretty dramatically to 95 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 1: the left, California mixed, bag Arizona a little bit of 96 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: movement towards Democrats. And then you look at there's a 97 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: lot of red errors on this map as well. It 98 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: really gives you a sense of how mixed the results 99 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: of this election ultimately were and how regional. You can 100 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: see in the South actually from North Carolina, South Carolina 101 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: a bit less. Georgia was a little bit more mixed. 102 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: Did Rafael Warnock like there, like I said, does have 103 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: the edge, but that one's going to a runoff. But 104 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: you can see Florida dramatic shifts to the right, and 105 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: then you see sort of a you know, a shift 106 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 1: in Iowa. You see South Dakota. You see a number 107 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: of other states where you had huge shifts outperforming Trump's performance. 108 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: So ultimately Nevada called for Catherine Cortes Masto. Have to 109 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: give a lot of credit to John Ralston on this one, right, 110 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: who called it right. He was even on election day 111 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: as he saw the numbers starting to come in, he 112 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 1: was even starting to get a little nervous about his predictions. 113 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: She narrowly hangs on in the final count. She is 114 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 1: able to beat a lax al at Adam laxelt there 115 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: in Nevada and hold on. Arizona also called for Mark 116 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: Kelly over Blake Masters. Will get to Blake Masters, who 117 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: is not being a great actor in this whole situation. 118 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: But that one has been called as well. And then, 119 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: of course we already knew the results of Pennsylvania, which 120 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: ended up not really being particularly close, and Georgia, as 121 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 1: I said, headed to that runoff. So Democrats have a 122 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: chance to even pick up a seat, which you know, 123 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: does it matter? Does it not matter? We saw a 124 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: good tweet that sort of lays out why it makes 125 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: the difference between Democrats having fifty to fifty control with 126 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris being the tiebreaker versus actually having fifty one 127 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: seats and having the outright control of the chamber. Let's 128 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 1: take a look at that tweet. Three huge differences, Steve 129 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: Laddock writes here between a fifty to fifty and a 130 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: fifty one forty nine D majority. Number one, having a 131 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: majority on each committee versus power sharing and deadlocks requiring 132 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: discharge petitions. Number two, no single D senator can hijack 133 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 1: or block nominations, and number three D's can have two 134 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: members absent and still be able to hold votes. So 135 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: still a lot at stake in that Georgia runoff, but 136 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: it no longer will determine control of the Senate. Exactly right. Also, 137 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four was not looking to be a kind 138 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 1: year for Democrats, and so if they have a pickup, 139 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: you know, of course you want the margins to be able. 140 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: You have no idea what the election will look like 141 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. You want as many seats as 142 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: possible to either lessen or blow or perhaps even keep 143 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: majority in twenty twenty four. Let me elaborate on that, 144 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: just to get really specific. John Tester in Montana and 145 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: Joe Manchin in West Virginia are both up in twenty 146 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: twenty four. Those are very difficult seats to hold. So 147 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: just looking at those two alone, when you look across 148 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: the map, you realize that's going to be a very 149 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: tough Senate landscape for Democrats next time around. So if 150 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: they want to continue to hold the chamber, any margin 151 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: they can possibly have would be really important. Exactly, and 152 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: with power in particular, that one we talked about on 153 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: the committee, that is much more important than people think. 154 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,239 Speaker 1: It's one of the things that right now Senate business 155 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: is really at an all time low. One of the 156 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,119 Speaker 1: reasons the only Senate, the only things that the Senate 157 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: can do right now is actually just confirmed judges, is 158 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: because that one, at least in terms of the process 159 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: from the judicial filibuster and more, they've got it down 160 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: to basically so that it works perfectly well as long 161 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: as nobody objects, which is part of the other issue. However, 162 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: with legislation, this was causing major problems on Capitol Hill 163 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: over the last two years, so it would be a 164 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: big impact. But overall it does show you also that 165 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: we have now moved away from the expected condition of 166 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: the next two years, which was a total block against 167 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: the Biden agenda in both the House and the Senate. 168 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: Now we'll get to the House, but the Senate, of 169 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: course was always like the major firewall. That's where some 170 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: of the most uncompromising maybe one member could have held 171 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: up the entire thing with a slim GOP majority. Now 172 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: they've basically got it, so that you know, I was 173 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: explained to me this way, which is that having a 174 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: deadlock in the House. So we'll get to the House projection, 175 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: but preview of Republicans look likely very very slightly we'll 176 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: get on. Part of the reasons that's not as quote 177 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 1: dangerous as having a GOP majority in the Senate is 178 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 1: that whenever the times when Bayner was there and he 179 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: would have a Tea Party revolt, Plosi would just give 180 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: him twenty five thirty votes just fund the government. So 181 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 1: it was actually easier in order to have twenty thirty 182 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: or forty Democrats just cross the aisle rather than have 183 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green for example, like hijack the entire caucus. 184 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: So it's less perilous for Biden for funding the government 185 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: and many other like routine functions that could have been 186 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: a real thorn in his side then it would have 187 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: been if there was a GOP majority in the Senate. 188 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: It also seems to me, and maybe you have more 189 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: insight into this that you know, one of the things 190 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: that Republicans have really broadcasts and been very clear about 191 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: is what they want to use their power for is 192 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: to launch a whole series of investigations Hunter Biden's top 193 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: of the is Fauci and the COVID response, and they 194 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: have a whole other sort of laundry list of investigations 195 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: they want to launch. It seems to be a very 196 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 1: different deal if that is just a House affair versus 197 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: if you know, the Senate is the more sort of 198 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: prestigious body. Gardner's war media attention, these are more well 199 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: known figures, and so if you have both the House 200 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: and the Senate sort of on the same page going 201 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: into these investigations, it also seems like that's a bigger 202 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: deal versus being able to keep it just to the 203 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: House GEOP majority. No, absolutely correct, which is that the 204 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: GOP investigations. I mean, we'll all remember Benghazi and how 205 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 1: all those worked out didn't end up doing a damn thing. 206 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: I mean I was a skeptical even on the Senate one, 207 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: but you're right, which is that from the Senate compelling authority. 208 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: Of course, the House will continue to have subpoena power, 209 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: but even with the limited amount that they have, you know, 210 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: if we're going to see how it shakes out committee wise, 211 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: et cetera, like who gets placed where and what exactly 212 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: the purview that they're going to get. But it's going 213 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: to be a real wild ride, I think for Kevin 214 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 1: McCarthy and for the House of Representatives on the GOP side. 215 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 1: On the Democratic side, I think what we can expect 216 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 1: is just they are going to confirm every like twenty 217 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 1: seven year old law student they possibly can. To the band, 218 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 1: I would do the same thing if were It's a 219 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,319 Speaker 1: smart move. They are just going to sit there and 220 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: confirm judges left and right as long as they possibly can. 221 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 1: You know, I wouldn't be shocked if you saw maybe 222 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: one more Supreme Court retirement or you know, some some 223 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 1: Supreme Court retirement or departure in the next two years, 224 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: because who knows where things are going to go. And 225 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: I think a lot of the justices learned from what 226 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 1: happened with RBG and are also looking at what Stephen 227 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: Bryer did. So on a practical level, it changes a 228 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: hell of a lot here in DC. On the debt 229 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: ceiling as well. They could go ahead and maybe pass 230 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: that during the lame Duck and effectively take it off 231 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 1: the table for the next two years. Even if they didn't, 232 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: they have a little bit more of wiggle room. But 233 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: many of the GOP bargaining chips which were on the 234 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: table to try and force the Biden hand caused some 235 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: more chaos and the lead up to the twenty twenty 236 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: four election. That's just off the table in a very 237 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 1: very big way. It's just stunning. It's stunning to see 238 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: this happen. They also, I mean, they really thought they 239 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 1: were going to come into they being Republicans, going to 240 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 1: come into this next Congress with a kind of a 241 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: mandate from the American people, where you know, their view 242 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: of the universe and their legislative priorities and their particular 243 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: culture war issues, where they were going to be able 244 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: to say, look, the American people affirmed they are with 245 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: us on all of these issues and also on economics. 246 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: You know, they thought they were going to be able 247 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: to come in saying, look, the American people has repudiated 248 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: the big spending of the Biden administration. Now is time 249 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: to tighten the purse strings. That was going to be 250 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: the justification for a potential debt ceiling. That mandate is 251 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: certainly not there now. Republicans have often acted in lots 252 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: of ways without really having a publican mandate. They're a 253 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: lot more comfortable doing that, I think, ultimately than Democrats. 254 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: But the bottom line here is with what looks almost 255 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: certainly to be divided government, the Republican slim majority in 256 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: the House, democratic slim majority in the Senate, of course, 257 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 1: a democratic president. Unless they find some issues of actual 258 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: bipartisan cooperation, there ain't shit getting done in this stand 259 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: and I'm skeptical that they are going to continue to. 260 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: You know, they had a couple things where on the 261 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: minor gun reform legislation they passed, they were able to 262 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: get some Republicans to go along with that, The Chips 263 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: Act as well. The Infrastructure Bill also had Republican support. 264 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 1: So there were a few significant items in the first 265 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: two years of Biden's term that they got some Republican 266 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: support for. I have a feeling we're not going to 267 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: see them willing to go along anymore. Because one of 268 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: the narratives that's coming out of some corners of the 269 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: GOP app date, you know, less than spectacular showing in 270 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: the midterms, is that they actually gave in to Biden 271 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 1: too much. Now I don't agree with that assessment, but 272 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: I see that analysis coming from all kinds of corners 273 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: at this point. So, especially as you get closer to 274 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, even on areas that you know in 275 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: theory there is agreement, like there is some agreement on 276 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: potential tech legislation that you could see, there is some 277 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: agreement on potential additional industrial policy that you could see. 278 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 1: Are they going to actually go along with Biden and 279 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: give him any wins in this next two year period. 280 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: I'm pretty skeptical of that. What do you think. I 281 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: completely agree, especially because I think it's completely underscored. With 282 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 1: the gun legislation, most the GOP members who signed onto 283 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: that were retiring or they were in extremely safe seats. Well, 284 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: those people are going to be retired, They're going to 285 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: be gone. So the Pat Toomey's of the world, the 286 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: Rob Portman's of the world, they no longer face a 287 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: political price part of the reason they were willing to 288 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: take that risk. Yeah, the newer crop, they're not going 289 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: to do that well all. On the other hand, there 290 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: are some new report publicans in New York who just 291 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: won in seats that Biden carried, oh in that House. Yeah, 292 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,719 Speaker 1: in the House by a couple I mean some of 293 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: those seats Biden carried by double digits. So in the 294 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: House there will be a little a few new moderate 295 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: members who have some incentive to show that they're willing 296 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 1: to work with the Democrats. But ultimately, if you've got 297 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: you know, Speaker McCarthy controlling what comes to the floor, 298 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: it doesn't make much of a difference. And that's the 299 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: I think the point that should be underscore. Yes, okay, okay, 300 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 1: So we'll see what all of that looks like. At 301 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: the same time, there was a lot of i would say, 302 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: very justifiable concern about all of the candidates who you know, 303 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: were election deniers and unwilling to say whether they would 304 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: have certified Joe Biden's election, and in advanced casting, doubt 305 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: on whether the elections would be free and fair. There's 306 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: a lot of concern about what those people would do 307 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: if they lost by and large. I mean, this is 308 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: the lowest bar of all time. They all accepted their 309 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: defeats and eventually conceded Mastrano and Pennsylvania. Yesha. Even Dougie 310 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: Costriano initially didn't I guess, call Shapiro and didn't outright 311 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: say that he would concede. But then he finally, I guess, 312 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: five days later, got around to actually doing it. So again, 313 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: lois barb all the time, but he managed to surpass it. 314 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: There are a couple holdowns, though, Blake Masters, let's go 315 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. He has, as 316 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: of last night, declined to concede at Arizona. He says 317 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: he wants to wait until all the votes are counted, 318 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: and you know he's got some language in here. He says, 319 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: if at the end, Center Kelly has more of the 320 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: votes than I do, I will congratulate him on a 321 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: hard slot victory. But voters decide, not the media. Let's 322 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: count the votes. He also said, for my people who 323 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: knocked doors in one hundred and fifteen degree heat, and 324 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: for the million plus Arizonas who put their faith in me. 325 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: We are going to make sure that every legal vote 326 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: is counted. So has not quite brought himself to concede yet. Yeah, 327 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: I mean, look, you can wait if you want. I mean, personally, 328 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 1: I just think it makes you look like even more 329 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: of a loser. Like at this point, it's very clear 330 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: like you're not going to win. That's why. Look, we're 331 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: not talking here about decision desk or something calling it. 332 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: The AP has gone ahead and called the race. All 333 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: of the Arizona data guru people that I see people following, 334 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: all of them have pointed to the fact that they're 335 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: anyone pressing down. There is no chance. And by the way, 336 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: we're not sitting here saying that Carrie Leak is lost 337 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 1: yet for a reason, which is that she still has 338 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: a possibility. It's a slight possibility. So if she doesn't 339 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: want to concede, I completely understand that one. But on 340 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 1: his it's very clear like he does not have the votes. 341 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: There's no outstanding number of batches which could possibly really 342 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: break that way in any realistic fashion. So look, I mean, 343 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: if you want to hold out for another week, I 344 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: guess go ahead. Not really a headline. You know that 345 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: I would necessarily want given that, you know, now you 346 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: have to go back into private practice. So it's time like, 347 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: you know, now you actually have to go back into 348 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: private practice and work in a business and you know, 349 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: potentially do deals with major companies and be a venture capitalist. 350 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: It's like that's where I think reputation, as I'm going 351 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: to be talking about in my monologue, I would say 352 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: matters a little bit. I mean, look in general, with 353 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: the guy dug himself on massive holes, went way too 354 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: hard in the pain during the primary in order to 355 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: try and score the Trump endorsement, you know, the clownish 356 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: I think Trump won ad then of course the national 357 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: abortion ban and a lot of his ads have been 358 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: circulating online to just show how frankly cringe he was 359 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: the entire process in terms of like personal qualities and 360 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: off putting, like dude, Yeah, I just don't think. I 361 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,239 Speaker 1: just don't think he was a natural politician period, and 362 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 1: I think a lot of his decisions underscore that. Right 363 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: there was a a McConnell's I think lead Polster said 364 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: that Blake masters tested the worst in front of focus 365 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: groups of any candidate that they have literally ever seen 366 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: so even putting aside like national abortion ban and calling 367 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 1: abortion genocide and the like, Trump actually won twenty twenty 368 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: and whatever, just on like you know, that natural, like 369 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: that instinctive vibe you get off of someone. We didn't 370 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 1: focus as much on Masters as like say Walker or Oz. 371 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: There's an argument he was actually a worse candidate than 372 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: certainly Walker, who at least is still in the ballgame, right, 373 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 1: I mean you all you have to do is take 374 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: a look at the vote. Of course you have visa via. 375 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 1: I mean, right now he's blaming Mitch McConnell in the cash. 376 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess there is an argument to be 377 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: made for that, But it's also like, well, why weren't 378 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 1: you raising more money? You know, like you were lazing on? 379 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 1: Why were you relying on Mitch McConnell to go ahead 380 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 1: and raise I mean, look, looking at the race, it's 381 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 1: very clear that many of the things we were saying 382 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: a couple of months ago, from the Kansas referendums, from 383 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 1: the polls and more, and from Mark kelly strength as 384 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: a candidate, actually all bared out to be true. The 385 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: fundamentals didn't end up mattering nearly as much in this election. 386 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: I think it's very interesting from in terms of takeaways, 387 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: like I have very very multi faceted take from all 388 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 1: of this. You can't help but have multifaceted takeaways because 389 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: we showed you on that map before. I mean, look, 390 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: no doubt, much better night for Democrats than Republicans. I mean, 391 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,199 Speaker 1: compared to how the party in power normally does. It 392 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 1: was actually a historic night for Democrats. But you look 393 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,959 Speaker 1: at Florida, you look at New York, you look at 394 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 1: you know, some places Democrats are really romped, like in 395 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: the industrial Midwest, and some places like Arizona they really 396 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: had to sort of like, you know, eke it out California, 397 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: same deal. So there was a lot of regional variability. 398 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: There was a lot of state to state variability. It 399 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 1: really was almost the return of more local politics that 400 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 1: we haven't seen certainly since the Trump era. So there 401 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: is going to continue to be a lot of takeaways 402 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: from exactly how all of these races went. We've mentioned 403 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: Carrie Lake now a couple of times. Let's go ahead 404 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen because she's the 405 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 1: other one. Big questions over whether or not she's going 406 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: to conceive that question. Market still very much there, Katie 407 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,479 Speaker 1: Hobbs grows lead over Carry Lake in latest returns from 408 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 1: Arizona governor's race. Dave Wasserman over at Cook Political, Who's 409 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: everybody sort of like go to data analyst, he says, 410 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: it looks nearly impossible for carry Lake to be able 411 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: to come back. Yet that being said, the race has 412 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 1: yet to be called, so you know, we'll wait to 413 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: call it for sure, but it is looking very good 414 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: for the Democrats in Arizona and that goobernatorial race. And 415 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: you know, we'll see if Carrie Lake loses, if she 416 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,959 Speaker 1: is willing to concede. Some of her supporters have been 417 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: out marching on voting centers and all this sort of stuff, 418 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,479 Speaker 1: so we'll see how that ultimately goes. But you know, 419 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: in terms of like how all the election deniers fared, 420 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 1: she was the only one who at the end of 421 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 1: the day really had a shot at the governor's level 422 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: to be able to hold on. She was, you know, 423 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,959 Speaker 1: she was very politically talented in terms of like personal 424 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: charisma or the polar opposite of Blake Masters there, and 425 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 1: also had some you know, she was well funded, she 426 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: was well networked in the state and with the political 427 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: Republican establishment there as well, And so for Carrie Lake 428 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: even to be on the verge of a loss, it 429 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 1: does show you what a political price there was to 430 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: be paid for refusing to say who actually won the 431 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: twenty twenty election. Yeah, here's the other thing. I've seen 432 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: a lot of people say, like, why does it take 433 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: so long to count the votes? I agree with you, 434 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 1: it's a disgrace. However, it's a long standing disgrace in 435 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 1: the state of Arizona, apparently for some reason. And if 436 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: I'm curious, what you think, they have it such that 437 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 1: they don't even start counting the votes until election day itself. Yeah. Also, 438 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: they have this crazy system where you can do like 439 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: a day of man in drop so you can like 440 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: basically write your mail in ballot. They come on election 441 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: day and you have to drop it off. I guess 442 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: that's fine, But we got over one hundred thousand more 443 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: this time than we did in twenty twenty. Some two 444 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy six thousand ballots dropped on on day of. 445 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: Then signature verification has to go through per their laws. 446 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: It's a very very like it's a problematic and long process. 447 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: People can do challenges all that only then can evoke account. 448 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: It's like, well, no wonder it's taking days and days 449 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: in order to count votes. Yeah, the thing I want 450 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,360 Speaker 1: to say to Republicans, I agree it should be simpler. 451 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,959 Speaker 1: Well why does Florida, which has a bunch of old people, Well, 452 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: how can they count their votes in one day? Agree? 453 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: But I also want to say for all the Republicans 454 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: who are complaining about this, like they're shooting themselves in 455 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,439 Speaker 1: the foot by encouraging their base to wait until the 456 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 1: day of. And you know, we talked about this with 457 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: regard to Georgia and Trump last time around, which is 458 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: there is a real argument that if Trump had just 459 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: embraced early mail in voting, he might have won Georgia 460 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: and might have won the whole darn thing. Because ultimately, listen, 461 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: you know, not every buddy is a like ride or 462 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: die all the way in for the cause going to 463 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 1: be able to vote no matter what it takes. On 464 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 1: election day, shit happens. People's kids get sick, and work 465 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: goes long, and they just forget about like whatever. So 466 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: if you are banking on having every one of your 467 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,879 Speaker 1: voters have to show up on election day, that's going 468 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: to be a wildly more challenging organizational task. It's going 469 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: to take way more resources. Whereas Democrats had a huge 470 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: advantage in that they had in some of these states, 471 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 1: you know, a month where they could turn their people 472 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: out and check whether they'd voted or not, and nudge 473 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: them and get them to fill out their ballot or 474 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: get them to go to the polls or whatever it was. 475 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: So this direction that Republicans have gone in has really 476 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: ended up being just a catastrophic, idiotic mistake. Zero disagreement. 477 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: I'm like, listen, I want more voter participation. I think 478 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: mail in ballots are fine in general. Everybody's like going 479 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 1: to end the ballot harvesting regime. I'm like, well, you 480 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: just lost the elections, so first of all, it's not 481 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: going to happen. But second, you know, you could just 482 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 1: get your people to vote by mail as well. One 483 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: of the here's a practical solution from what I read. 484 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 1: There's something called an extrication machine, which Florida has and 485 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: Arizona doesn't. It uses a laser to cut off the 486 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,479 Speaker 1: top of the envelope so that they could more easily 487 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: extract the Oh, is that all it is? I am 488 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 1: calling on the federal government to purchase extrication machines for 489 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,200 Speaker 1: the use by the station for everyone, so we don't 490 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 1: have to live through the shit. Let's in Arizona. I 491 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 1: am pleading with you. You guys have plenty of money. 492 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: You can buy an extracation machine. Is this the prom 493 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: in California? Too? That take forever? And usually no one 494 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: really cares that much because ultimately, you know it's going 495 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: to go blue and it's just a question of the margin. 496 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 1: But now we have House control coming down to some 497 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: of these exactly districts, and I keep looking at the 498 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,479 Speaker 1: update and they're like, we've counted sixty percent of the ballot, 499 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: Like what why? Why is it taking so long? Anyway, 500 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: the other piece of this with regard to the Senate 501 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: is now, because you know, unexpectedly Republicans will not have control, 502 00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 1: there are some pushback. There's a lot of recriminations, who's 503 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: to blame and what happened? And you know, is it 504 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 1: Mitch mcconnald's fault, is it Trump's fault? Is it Rick 505 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: Scott's fault? Is it Peter Tiele's fault? I mean, there's 506 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: just like all sorts of finger pointing all around and 507 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: so there has been a question over whether Mitch mcconnald's 508 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: leadership would ultimately be challenged. Let's put this first piece 509 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 1: up on the screen from the Washington Post, Classic Republicans 510 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:25,199 Speaker 1: in disarray headline Congressional Republicans panic as they watch their 511 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: lead dwindle. Private consternation reached a public boiling point on 512 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 1: Friday's lawmakers and both changers confronted the fallout from Tuesday's elections. 513 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: For now, since we're talking about the Senate, I'll focus 514 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 1: on the Senate piece of this. A group of Senate 515 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: Republicans on Friday actually called for delay in GOP leadership 516 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: elections after the party's failure to claim the majority. That 517 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: move poses a direct challenge to mcconnald. We're talking about 518 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 1: six senators who I guess signed on to this letter 519 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: publicly called for this delay, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Josh 520 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,919 Speaker 1: Hollymike Lee, Ted Cruz, and Cynthia Loomis. That vote was 521 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 1: supposed to be on Wednesday. McConnell was expected to be 522 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,360 Speaker 1: re elected in a secret ballot. Hawlly suggested waiting all 523 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: the way until after the December sixth Senate runoff. In Georgia. 524 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: That would of course be a delay of multiple weeks. 525 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: We also have reporting that apparently before the election catastrophe 526 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: for the Republicans, Senator Rick Scott, who was in charge 527 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: of the Senate Republican campaign effort, was all set and 528 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,479 Speaker 1: ready to run, let's go ahead and put this up 529 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: on the screen. Was ready to run against McConnell for 530 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,120 Speaker 1: leadership until he saw how poorly things went. And now 531 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: he is rethinking that. He had gone so far as 532 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: to cut an announcement video declaring his intentions. Word had 533 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 1: reached some prominent conservatives outside the Senate, and a handful 534 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: of GOP senators had gotten wind of his plan and 535 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: started calculating just how many votes his long shot campaign 536 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,160 Speaker 1: could accrue at the leadership vote next week in the Capitol. 537 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: They go on to say he would have been virtually 538 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 1: certain to lose even if Republicans had done well in 539 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: these midterms, which of course they ultimately did not. But 540 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,439 Speaker 1: Scott's challenge was not so much aimed at unseating the 541 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 1: longtime Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell as it was channeling 542 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: the anger of grassroots conservatives and President Trump, who repeeved 543 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 1: at McConnell's criticism of the candidate quality of this year's 544 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,160 Speaker 1: roster of Senate gup candidates. But ultimately Mitch McConnell, now 545 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: it's looking pretty precient with those comments, I would say, yeah. 546 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 1: And you know, actually Tom Cotton had an interesting response 547 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: to all of this. So today he said, quote, I 548 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,439 Speaker 1: don't see why we would delay the election since all 549 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 1: five or six of our leadership elections are uncontested. And 550 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 1: he says, you know, there's a great saying to be 551 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,159 Speaker 1: the man, you got to beat the man, and so 552 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: far no one's had the nerve to steph forward and 553 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 1: challenge Senator McConnell, which is true, even Rick Scott, you know, 554 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,359 Speaker 1: who's talking a big game, he's not actually in the running. 555 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: And also, why would you want to elect the guy 556 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 1: who both screwed up the midtermal or the midterm elections 557 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: was literally on a super yacht while all of this 558 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: was going down, and then fine, and then third the 559 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 1: guy who published the let's cut Medicare and Social Security plan. 560 00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 1: It's like, really, that's the person that we want to 561 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,919 Speaker 1: put in charge of this whole thing. So look, I 562 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 1: think McConnell is absolutely going to be the next leader 563 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: of the Senate gup, especially like minority leader doesn't not 564 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: particularly matter that much. However, you know, Trump has also 565 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 1: weighed in you, so he's both. He's both been critical McConnell. 566 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: Sometimes he praises McConnell have a very complicated relationship. Here's 567 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: what he had to say to Glenn Beck. Well, I 568 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: think he's got a lot of pressures. His wife is 569 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: a big person for Chinese investment and his family and 570 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 1: him China. I don't think that's appropriate. No, I think 571 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 1: Rick Scott would be much better than maconell. I know, 572 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 1: I know McConnell well, I guess probably better than most. 573 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 1: And his wife I call her a co coach, how 574 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: but she's you know, she worked for me for four years. 575 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: But she was so heartbroken, you know, like she's got 576 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: this big heart. She was so heartbroken at the January sixth, 577 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 1: even though it had nothing to do with me, and 578 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 1: she left, you know, a week and a half early 579 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: to make her big statements on the way out the door. 580 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 1: So I was I was glad to see her go, 581 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 1: but she wanted to make that statement. No, I'm not 582 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: a fan of McConnell, and I am a fan of 583 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: Rick Scott, so Trump is a for Rick Scott, although 584 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 1: Rick Scott is not officially in the race. And if 585 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 1: he hated Elaine Chow so much, why did he hire her? 586 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: By the way, some of us are saying that thing 587 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 1: about her father's Chinese ties for Tooth of Saints twenty seventeen. 588 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,680 Speaker 1: Nobody listened then, only whenever she spoke out about January 589 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 1: six is like, oh, then we're allowed to notice. This 590 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 1: is always the issue with Trump. By the way. Also, 591 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 1: he criticized Trump a Mitch a million times while he 592 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: was the president, and it never actually mattered. McConnell has 593 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 1: an ironclad hold on the caucus. Tom Cotton is eminently correct, 594 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: like nobody has a credible challenge yet to McConnell, and 595 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 1: also like what are you gonna do? Are you actually 596 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: gonna do something new? I mean oli like is like 597 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: we need a new party all of that. It's like, okay, 598 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 1: then run against McConnell and say like this is what 599 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 1: we're going. I think what you would find out, though, 600 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 1: is that most people don't agree with him in the caucus. 601 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 1: He was like, maybe we shouldn't have filibustered on insulin 602 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,160 Speaker 1: prices or whatever. It's like, yeah, well most of them are. 603 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 1: Well yeah. Also, actually, the Rick Scott line of attack 604 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 1: on McConnell and co. Is like, we should have even 605 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: like we shouldn't have worked with the Democrats at all, 606 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 1: We shouldn't have gone along with them on infrastructure. So 607 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 1: if Holly's out there saying like, oh, maybe we should 608 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 1: have helped them on insulin prices, that's that really is 609 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: a viewpoint that is on an island in the Republican Caucus. 610 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: And look in all of these it's very similar to Pelosi. 611 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: Why does she have such a lock on leadership in 612 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: with the House Democrats. She raises a boatload of money 613 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 1: and she doles it out, and so a lot of these, 614 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 1: a lot of these incumbent Democrats, they owe their seats 615 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: that to her. Same thing with McConnell. Rick Scott was 616 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 1: a pathetic fundraiser ultimately when he was running the you know, 617 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 1: Senate Republican Campaign Committee, and so Mitch McConnell had to 618 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 1: bail him and a bunch of other candidates out as well. 619 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 1: And to the point about candidate quality, if Blake Masters 620 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 1: or whoever wants to complain about there not being enough money, 621 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 1: I mean partly Republicans shouldn't have had to spen so 622 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 1: much money bolstering JD Vance to get him across the 623 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: finish line, and so that stretched them thin. And on 624 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 1: the other hand, like because the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee 625 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 1: didn't do their part, that also stretched them thin. So 626 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 1: I don't know how you can lay that at the 627 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 1: feet of Mitch McConnell when he raised more than money 628 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: than anyone. Well, look, the real person to blame is Trump. 629 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: Like Trump didn't spend any money boosy in the candidates 630 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: and he sucked exactly, And it's so much of the 631 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: Republican grassroots space just send something to us about It's 632 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: like Trump sent out an email where it's like donate 633 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: to herschel Walker and yeah, ninety percent of it goes 634 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 1: to Trump. Right, that's exactly right. Yeah, that's exactly right. 635 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 1: That's what he does. I mean, look, he all he 636 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 1: cares about is himself. He barely spent any money trying 637 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 1: to even push these candidates off the line. Why it's 638 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 1: funny to me when Blake goes on Tucker and he's like, 639 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: well this is all on Mitch, I'm like, really, is 640 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: it not on the guy? Who endorsed you. Also, look, 641 00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: maybe this is just me, but if I had a 642 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 1: billionaire benefactor and he didn't actually cough up for me 643 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: near the land near the line, I'd be like, what's 644 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,280 Speaker 1: the point of being an oligarch? And if you're going 645 00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 1: to be an oligarchy to spend them money and if 646 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 1: you're going to be an oligarch backdate, But you can't 647 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,719 Speaker 1: rely on your oligarch what you really do? What's happening 648 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 1: to him? Like if you have billions of dollars, which 649 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 1: Peter Silly did, like why are we haggling over twenty million? 650 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 1: You know you wipe your ass of twenty million. But anyway, whatever, 651 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: I don't have twenty million dollars, So I guess I 652 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 1: will never empathize. Bottom line, Mitch McConnell is very safe, 653 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: And I do think it is a great parable of 654 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 1: like how unserious Trump ultimately is, because he's had these 655 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 1: criticisms of Mitch McConnell since January sixth, And if you 656 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: really wanted to organize against him, you had some time 657 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: to do it. You had some time to figure out 658 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 1: your candidate, You had some time to line up support. 659 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 1: Trump had all kinds of chits he could have used, 660 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 1: including the fundraising money that he could have flown into, 661 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: you know, various races, but he didn't do any of 662 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: that because he's not fundamentally like a serious person about 663 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 1: any of this. Correct, All right, let's move on to 664 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: the House. Let's get to the House. So we are 665 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 1: starting to get some clarity in the House as well. 666 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 1: I mean, it is crazy that at this point we 667 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 1: don't know that the GOP certainly has control. But after 668 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: some results that came in yesterday, it looks very very 669 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,719 Speaker 1: likely that they are going to be able to clinch 670 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 1: a very narrow majority in the House. Much different picture 671 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 1: than what they thought they were going to be bringing 672 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 1: in to the next Congress. So let's go ahead and 673 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 1: put Dave Wasserman's tweet up on the screen. This is 674 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: from two days ago, so this is where things did stand, 675 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: he says, new House math. Dem called or likely they 676 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: had two hundred and thirteen seats. Republicans called or likely 677 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 1: two hundred and seventeen seats. Remember majority is two eighteen, 678 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 1: so he's already got Republicans really knocking on the door 679 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: at two seventeen and then five tossups, So that would 680 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: mean that Democrats would have to run the table in 681 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 1: all five of these tossups. Those would be Arizona one, 682 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: Arizona six, California thirteen, California twenty two, and California forty one. 683 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,120 Speaker 1: So two seats in Arizona, three seats in California. And 684 00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 1: again at that point, those were all toss ups, and 685 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 1: the idea was DEM's you gotta win every single one 686 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 1: of these in order to get to eighteen. Now there 687 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 1: are some other potential fringe scenarios on the board. Lauren 688 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: Bobert looks like she's gonna hang on in Colorad. That 689 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: one's probably going to go to a recount. Is there 690 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: a chance that, once ballots are cured and whatever, a 691 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,280 Speaker 1: theoretical possibility that the Democrat comes from behind, Yes, would 692 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 1: you count on it? Absolutely no. So there are some 693 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 1: other potential scenarios. But after yesterday you had three of 694 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 1: those toss up races go the wrong direction for Democrats. 695 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 1: You had Arizona one, Arizona six, and California forty one. 696 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:28,959 Speaker 1: So three out of the five toss ups go towards Republicans. 697 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: I think one of those may have even been called. 698 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 1: So with those three moving towards Republicans. That leaves two 699 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 1: tossups that would put Dems at only two fifteen, so 700 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 1: they what he's saying is basically Democrats need a miracle 701 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: in order to pull this off. At this point, Yeah, 702 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 1: it doesn't look likely. You've only got two more. It 703 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,960 Speaker 1: looks like the GOP majority will be anywhere between like 704 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 1: two nineteen, depending like you said, in like two twenty two. 705 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 1: But let's all put that in perspective. It's supposed to 706 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: be R plus twenty five. So I want those things 707 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: where you only got three seats. Now you're really looking 708 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 1: like Nancy Pelosi, and this just causes so much consternation. 709 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,320 Speaker 1: Steve Kornaki broke some of this down in the projection 710 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: as well. Let's take a listen, two hundred and eighteen 711 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 1: seats needed for a majority in the House, and we 712 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: are now estimating that Republicans will finish with two hundred 713 00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 1: and nineteen. That is down from our previous estimate, which 714 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,720 Speaker 1: had them at two hundred and twenty. And I would 715 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 1: stress the margin for error here is plus or minus 716 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 1: four seats. So why does that matter though? And I 717 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 1: think this is it's a little bit different than control, 718 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 1: which is that when you have the majority. As long 719 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:39,160 Speaker 1: as you can get the speakership, you still control the committees, 720 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 1: you have the discharge ability over Congress. On the big votes, 721 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 1: it will matter, But the day to day running of 722 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 1: the House, it will still shift towards the speaker, presumptive 723 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 1: possible speaker Kevin McCarthy, which we will get to if 724 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 1: it's not all presumptive, as I might have been leaking out. 725 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 1: So the point is is that it will be hell 726 00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 1: for GOP leadership, but the day to day action of 727 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 1: the House representatives, if they have that slight majority, it 728 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 1: will still be in there. If your speaker, you control 729 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,839 Speaker 1: what comes to the floor set and that's ultimately what matters. Now, 730 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 1: how successful is Kevin McCarthy going to be at wrangling 731 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,840 Speaker 1: this caucus. I mean, I do not endy if he 732 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 1: ends up as speaker, which is a big if, and 733 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 1: like Zager said, we'll get to that in a minute. Ooh. 734 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,720 Speaker 1: I did not envy him that task because whereas Pulosa 735 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: really sort of like whipped the dissident progressives into into line, 736 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 1: and they more or less went along with basically everything 737 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,880 Speaker 1: that Democratic leadership ultimately wanted, and they're more sort of 738 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: like moderate Blue Dogs mostly went along as well. The 739 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 1: Republican caucus is a different beast the Freedom Caucus. I mean, 740 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,280 Speaker 1: they are much more willing to sort of buck leadership. 741 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 1: And this goes back even to like the Tea Party days. 742 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 1: I mean, think about John Payner and the headaches and 743 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: heartburn that he got from the Tea Party wave of 744 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 1: new Republicans, and you've got you know, you've got Marjorie Taylor, 745 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,319 Speaker 1: Green's of the world, Paul Gosar, it looks like Lauren 746 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,959 Speaker 1: Bobert's going to be back. You've got a real group 747 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,360 Speaker 1: of people who are willing to cause a lot of 748 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:07,760 Speaker 1: problems for their own leadership. So good luck Kevin McCarthy. 749 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:09,840 Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a very difficult 750 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,319 Speaker 1: caucus to manage. The other thing that Daniel and Shaney 751 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,359 Speaker 1: over at Bolts Magazine is pointing out is that you know, 752 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,320 Speaker 1: if you have this bear majority of like two seats, 753 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 1: that means any sort of vacancy can throw your majority 754 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 1: into doubt or make it so that you don't have 755 00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 1: the majority of votes ultimately on the floor. And he 756 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 1: pointed out that, I mean, there is almost never not 757 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,759 Speaker 1: some vacancy. I me, you're talking about four hundred and 758 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,319 Speaker 1: thirty five members, Like somebody, something's gonna be going on, 759 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,759 Speaker 1: Somebody is gonna be sick, someone's gonna die, someone's going 760 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 1: to retire. Like that's going on all the time. So 761 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,800 Speaker 1: if you have this bear of a majority, it really 762 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 1: makes it difficult to get anything come. It causes a 763 00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,400 Speaker 1: lot of problems on the big but like some routine 764 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:56,000 Speaker 1: business like funding the government or whatever, naming a post office, 765 00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,440 Speaker 1: like all this stuff matters and has to actually go 766 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,480 Speaker 1: through the House. Same with committee business. That's going to 767 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,600 Speaker 1: be a big one, the Steering Committee, what exactly they 768 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 1: can get through and whatnot. So I'm very interested to 769 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 1: kind of see how it all plays out. I think 770 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 1: that's going to be the story in Washington over the 771 00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,839 Speaker 1: last two years the Biden administration. Like you said, look, 772 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,240 Speaker 1: the days of legislative accomplishment, they're over. In a Republican House, 773 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,839 Speaker 1: it's just simply over. Republican judge or Democratic judges will 774 00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:24,440 Speaker 1: be confirmed and mass and effectively both confirmed and appointed 775 00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: by the president. But on a major structural level, many 776 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: of the battles for the future GOP, we're going to 777 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,520 Speaker 1: have to look to the House, both on the speakership 778 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,560 Speaker 1: in terms of the legislation they may or may not 779 00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:38,440 Speaker 1: allow through exactly. It holds you know, future aid to 780 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:40,880 Speaker 1: Ukraine or you know, who's going to vote which way, 781 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,920 Speaker 1: whether that McCarthy may have to work with Nancy Pelosi 782 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 1: or whoever haking jeffries to get twenty or thirty votes 783 00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,240 Speaker 1: to fund some legislation. That was always humiliating for Bayner 784 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 1: whenever they would have to go to Pelosi. And the 785 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 1: thing is though, is that Atdems would almost always certainly 786 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,839 Speaker 1: give the Republicans, like the centrist Republicans what they want, 787 00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,880 Speaker 1: rather than them cave to like Marjorie taylorans demand on 788 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,040 Speaker 1: some legislation, although who knows, you know, then they can 789 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,200 Speaker 1: also extract a fair price giving it over. So it's 790 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 1: going to be very interesting. It gives the Democrats more 791 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 1: power in the House, and it also gives you know, 792 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,520 Speaker 1: the House Freedom Caucus and the Marchers the Greens a 793 00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,360 Speaker 1: lot more power too. So, I mean, you saw the 794 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,319 Speaker 1: way Joe Manchin use the narrow majority that Democrats had, 795 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 1: I mean the basically fifty to fifty situation that Democrats 796 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,719 Speaker 1: had to extract all kinds of things and really hold 797 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:29,040 Speaker 1: up the process. So a you know, a concerted group 798 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,920 Speaker 1: of just a handful of members in the House can 799 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 1: really kind of run the show. And ultimately, when you're 800 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,759 Speaker 1: talking about Republicans have in the House, Democrats have in 801 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:42,160 Speaker 1: the Senate, Democrats having the presidency, the likelihood that these 802 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,480 Speaker 1: groups these parties are going to be able to come 803 00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,440 Speaker 1: together on any significant legislation I think pretty slim. We 804 00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,719 Speaker 1: looked at some of the history of the last time 805 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 1: a House majority was the small There was actually a 806 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: period in what was it like two thousand and one 807 00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,919 Speaker 1: to two thousand and three under George W. Bush where 808 00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 1: there was a very very narrow Republican majority, But you 809 00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,319 Speaker 1: have to go all the way back to Eisenhower in 810 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 1: nineteen fifty two to find the last time the House 811 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,520 Speaker 1: majority was as small as two hundred and twenty one. 812 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,719 Speaker 1: They had apparently gained twenty two seats from the Democratic Party. 813 00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 1: They gained a majority of the House, but Democrats had 814 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,840 Speaker 1: almost two hundred fifty thousand more votes thanks to overwhelming 815 00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:21,719 Speaker 1: margins in the South. That would be that narrow majority 816 00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:23,840 Speaker 1: they had then would be the last time the Republican 817 00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,960 Speaker 1: Party actually won a majority in the House until nineteen 818 00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,200 Speaker 1: ninety four. You know, We're very used to this idea 819 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 1: that like, oh, it just flips back and forth and 820 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,680 Speaker 1: it's always a new wave of election and the country 821 00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,839 Speaker 1: is really closely divided. Easy to forget that Democrats had 822 00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 1: a lock on the House for a very long time 823 00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,239 Speaker 1: and very large majorities, especially like under FDR. So in 824 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 1: any case, that's the history of that. There was another one. 825 00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:45,560 Speaker 1: I kind of got a little bit obsessed ore with 826 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,920 Speaker 1: the history of this. Back in nineteen thirty one to 827 00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:53,160 Speaker 1: nineteen thirty three, Republicans had just two hundred and eighteen seats, 828 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:57,240 Speaker 1: so the barest of bear majorities. Democrats had two sixteen 829 00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,960 Speaker 1: and farm labor had one. And the reason they were 830 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,080 Speaker 1: were able to gain such a small thin, you know, 831 00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,520 Speaker 1: the barriston majorities, was because think of how crazy this is. 832 00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 1: Before the first day of Congress. So after election day, 833 00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:14,400 Speaker 1: before they were sworn in, fourteen members of Congress died. 834 00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:18,120 Speaker 1: What the hell is going on here? What a weird year? Right? Yeah, 835 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,080 Speaker 1: I was just thinking that happened. Now, imagine the conspiracies 836 00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,760 Speaker 1: would oh people would it would be crazy. So anyway, 837 00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,400 Speaker 1: fourteen representatives elect died and then Republicans were able to 838 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 1: pick up just enough to be able to be able 839 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 1: to gain the majority of House seats. And you know 840 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,920 Speaker 1: in past eras when you've had these bare majorities, you 841 00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:42,640 Speaker 1: actually haven't seen mostly total gridlock and stalemate because you 842 00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 1: had some sort of bipartisan common cause around like World 843 00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,960 Speaker 1: War One, for example, but hard to see them really 844 00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,600 Speaker 1: like linking up, joining hands and singing kumbaya. Here. Over 845 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,520 Speaker 1: the next two years of the Biden president in nineteen 846 00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 1: fifty two elections were actually really interesting. That's when Ella 847 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,719 Speaker 1: lynnon Johnson became very powerful in the Senate, and actually 848 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 1: they made a gamble at that time. There's actually not 849 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,919 Speaker 1: an uncommon split in the GOP, which is there were 850 00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: like Eisenhower Republicans and there were like Barry Goldwater Robert 851 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,840 Speaker 1: Tafft types. So the Robert Taft types wanted to go 852 00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:16,360 Speaker 1: all in on McCarthyism, you know, losing Truman lost China. 853 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,879 Speaker 1: They want to go after the communists, and they're much 854 00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,080 Speaker 1: more isolationists, anti Marshall Plan. Eisenhower much more mixed peace 855 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,560 Speaker 1: with the New Deal. And so at that time they 856 00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 1: Eisenhow would actually rely on Johnson and the Democrats to 857 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,279 Speaker 1: deliver some of his votes, even though Robert taff and 858 00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,080 Speaker 1: his own party, we're going to go against it. So 859 00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:36,080 Speaker 1: not entirely uncommon. There was some cross coalition cutting and 860 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,399 Speaker 1: all that stuff. One of the ways that democratics became 861 00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,920 Speaker 1: popular is they were like, well, Eisenhower is so popular, 862 00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,920 Speaker 1: we don't want to be oppositional to him. We'll let 863 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,000 Speaker 1: the idiot Republicans like Robert Taft get the baggage of that. 864 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,839 Speaker 1: So anyway, Yeah, so in terms of coalitions and all 865 00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 1: this stuff not uncommon in American history. Unfortunately, I mean 866 00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,319 Speaker 1: fortunately or unfortunately, the reality of modern politics is all 867 00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,839 Speaker 1: of the ideological sorting has basically occurred. So again, there 868 00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:01,279 Speaker 1: are issues where there's theoretical agreement, even on something like 869 00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 1: potential child tax ger I mean, you had like Mitt 870 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,319 Speaker 1: Romney's and Marco Rubios of the world floating something. But 871 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,120 Speaker 1: you know, you look at something like tech legislation where 872 00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,840 Speaker 1: there's been bipartisan collaboration. You look at something like a 873 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,759 Speaker 1: stock band where there's been bipartisan collaboration. There are theoretical 874 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,200 Speaker 1: issues where you could have a bipartisan majority. Do I 875 00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,480 Speaker 1: think we're going to see any of that? Very unlikely. 876 00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:22,719 Speaker 1: At the same time, we keep sort of assuming that 877 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,800 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy is going to be speaker. But we should 878 00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,839 Speaker 1: not be doing that, because if you're talking about that 879 00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:31,440 Speaker 1: thin of a margin, you have to keep everybody basically 880 00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,160 Speaker 1: in a line in order to win the two to 881 00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,799 Speaker 1: eighteen votes that you need to become Speaker of the House. 882 00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,080 Speaker 1: Let's go and put this up on the screen. Kevin 883 00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,600 Speaker 1: McCarthy's bid for speaker. This from the Wall Street Journal. 884 00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:47,120 Speaker 1: Complicated by GOP's twenty twenty two midterm results. You have 885 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,600 Speaker 1: Representative Chip Roy saying, pretty bluntly, he is a Freedom 886 00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,760 Speaker 1: Caucus guy. Let's just say no one currently has two eighteen. 887 00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,240 Speaker 1: I think it's hard to disagree with that. There's about 888 00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,080 Speaker 1: three dozen Republicans in the Freedom Caucus who you know 889 00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:02,800 Speaker 1: are willing to cause proms for leadership and have a 890 00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,640 Speaker 1: bit of an adversarial relationship, they say. With control of 891 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,200 Speaker 1: the House and Senate still and decided, angry Republicans mounted 892 00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,239 Speaker 1: public challenges to their leaders in boat chambers Friday, so 893 00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:14,080 Speaker 1: they confronted the possibility of falling short of the majority. 894 00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:17,120 Speaker 1: Now it looks like they will achieve that slim majority, 895 00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,000 Speaker 1: but very You've got a few who are really out 896 00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,400 Speaker 1: there saying, listen, we haven't decided that we're with Kevin McCarthy. 897 00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,319 Speaker 1: We think that there deserves to be a challenge. Matt 898 00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,040 Speaker 1: Gates told reporters that McCarthy was not his first choice 899 00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:33,280 Speaker 1: to lead the conference, echoing calls by the Freedom Caucus members. However, 900 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:37,359 Speaker 1: McCarthy does have the backing of Trump and also some 901 00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:42,080 Speaker 1: of the most credible potential alternatives, people like Minority Whip 902 00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:46,680 Speaker 1: Steep Scalise Representative Jim Jordan and Jim Banks. They remain 903 00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:50,200 Speaker 1: supportive of McCarthy, so he has been savvy in sort 904 00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,959 Speaker 1: of co opting some of his potential adversaries to his side. 905 00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,080 Speaker 1: That's true, but Freedom Cock is still likely to mount 906 00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:56,880 Speaker 1: debate against him. I've been reading and listening over the 907 00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,120 Speaker 1: last couple of days. Andy Biggs very likely to run 908 00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,200 Speaker 1: against him in air Z. He's the chairman of the 909 00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,520 Speaker 1: Freedom Caucus. At the very least, He's either going to 910 00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,399 Speaker 1: run and extract something at the end, or he won't 911 00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,800 Speaker 1: run because they're going to basically buy him off with something. 912 00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,440 Speaker 1: We will see what that pound of flesh that he 913 00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,279 Speaker 1: will be What an abstract is? What is it? They 914 00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:18,280 Speaker 1: whether they want more like Mike dominant committee seats chairmanships stuff. 915 00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:22,920 Speaker 1: Likely it will come down to chairman's chairmanships, committee seats, 916 00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,680 Speaker 1: maybe shifting around of committees. Marjorie Taylor Green being restored 917 00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:28,560 Speaker 1: to her committees. That's going to be a big one 918 00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:32,799 Speaker 1: in terms of promises for Trump and else. Again, there's 919 00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,759 Speaker 1: so much shifting dynamic here. Yeah, I really have no 920 00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,600 Speaker 1: idea they're going to get something. I think that needs 921 00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,000 Speaker 1: to be certain. I mean, probably the most likely scenario 922 00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,399 Speaker 1: here is McCarthy does end up as Speaker. But yeah, 923 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:48,239 Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus gets whatever it is they're asking for effectively. 924 00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,040 Speaker 1: I know one of the things they were asking for 925 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,760 Speaker 1: was like to make it easier to bounce the Speaker 926 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,480 Speaker 1: of the House if they're not happy with him. That 927 00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,399 Speaker 1: one piece I don't think he's going to give them. 928 00:44:56,680 --> 00:45:00,000 Speaker 1: But if they want particular committee assignments or chairmanships or whatever, 929 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,359 Speaker 1: art and to have more power and visibility, I think 930 00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,759 Speaker 1: those sorts of things will ultimately be on the table. Yes, 931 00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,600 Speaker 1: all right, So there was one seat that I've become 932 00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,000 Speaker 1: a little bit obsessed with because I think it tells 933 00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,440 Speaker 1: a lot of the stories and dynamics of this election, 934 00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:16,799 Speaker 1: and this was I think you have to say the 935 00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,239 Speaker 1: biggest upset in the House in terms of not the 936 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:24,359 Speaker 1: biggest margin to overcome, but the most surprising result. And 937 00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:28,520 Speaker 1: this was the seat out in Washington's third congressional district. 938 00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,080 Speaker 1: Let's go out and put this up on the screen. So, 939 00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,879 Speaker 1: going into election day, here's what five point thirty eight 940 00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,719 Speaker 1: was saying about this race. They had Joe Kent, the Republican, 941 00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:45,200 Speaker 1: winning in ninety eight of one hundred simulations, and his opponent, 942 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,720 Speaker 1: the Democrat, Marie Glusen camp Perez, winning in two out 943 00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:52,200 Speaker 1: of one hundred. Now let me give you the backstory here. 944 00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,880 Speaker 1: So this was a seat that was held by a 945 00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:58,600 Speaker 1: woman named Jamie Herrera Butler. She had voted for Trump's 946 00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,359 Speaker 1: impeachment and so she faced a MAGA primary challenger, this 947 00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,160 Speaker 1: guy Joe Kent, who actually was kind of a star. 948 00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:07,080 Speaker 1: I mean, he was on Tucker Carlson all the time. 949 00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,759 Speaker 1: Like the MAGA wing of the party really liked this guy. 950 00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,120 Speaker 1: And he won. And my recollection is he won quite 951 00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,560 Speaker 1: easily in that primary ultimately. Yeah, so he I mean 952 00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,040 Speaker 1: it was a little bit contested, but he didn't run 953 00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:21,080 Speaker 1: like overwhelmingly. Yeah, he beat her in solidly. So he 954 00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,920 Speaker 1: wins in the primary and This is someone who you know, 955 00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,040 Speaker 1: he played footsaet with a lot of the fringier elements. 956 00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:28,800 Speaker 1: I think is the best the most diplomatic thing you 957 00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,279 Speaker 1: could say here. He called for a full investigation of 958 00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:35,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. He was, you know, hiring Proud Boys to 959 00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,880 Speaker 1: work on his campaign. He's close friends with the Patriot 960 00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,680 Speaker 1: Prayer people. There was some sort of Nick Fuentes link. Anyway, 961 00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:45,720 Speaker 1: he's hardcore Maga Republican in this district that looked pretty 962 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,239 Speaker 1: solid Republican and like I said, five point thirty eight 963 00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:49,960 Speaker 1: had it ninety eight out of one hundred times, this 964 00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,400 Speaker 1: dude is ultimately gonna win on the Democratic side. Actually 965 00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:57,400 Speaker 1: a very interesting candidate. She didn't run your typical like 966 00:46:57,600 --> 00:47:00,279 Speaker 1: what the DNC consultants would tell you to do of 967 00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,360 Speaker 1: like you know, be a centrist and don't say anything 968 00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:06,719 Speaker 1: and you know, just talk about like vague things like 969 00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:10,359 Speaker 1: accountability or only talk about abortion. This woman named Marie 970 00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,400 Speaker 1: glues and camp Perez. She was actually a Bernie Caucus 971 00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:17,360 Speaker 1: voter and ran quite a sort of economic populist campaign 972 00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,680 Speaker 1: and also personally has an interesting bio. She owns you 973 00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,319 Speaker 1: small business owners, she owns an auto repair shop. So 974 00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,080 Speaker 1: let's take a look at a little bit of how 975 00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:28,480 Speaker 1: she presented herself. I'm not your typical candidate for Congress. 976 00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,759 Speaker 1: My name is Marie Gluesen camp Perez. My husband Dean, 977 00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,040 Speaker 1: and I own an auto repair shop. I'm running to 978 00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:35,960 Speaker 1: be a voice for workers who have a little grease 979 00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,760 Speaker 1: under their fingernails, for those struggling running small businesses, taking 980 00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,200 Speaker 1: care of young kids and taking care of aging parents, 981 00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,879 Speaker 1: for those who are tired of politicians who just pay 982 00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:48,120 Speaker 1: attention to big corporations and the wealthy and ignore us 983 00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:52,000 Speaker 1: and ignore the growing threat facing America like China and Russia. 984 00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:55,080 Speaker 1: I'm not running to represent drug companies, or oil companies, 985 00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:58,759 Speaker 1: or frankly, any special interest. They all have lobbyists, they 986 00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,920 Speaker 1: don't need politicians to I'm not taking a dime of 987 00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,279 Speaker 1: corporate pack money. I'll work to get money out of 988 00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:08,120 Speaker 1: politics so our representatives can work for us again. I'm 989 00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:11,040 Speaker 1: very proud that Dean and I have created family wage jobs, 990 00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,560 Speaker 1: but like most small business owners, I know, we can't 991 00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,560 Speaker 1: afford health insurance for ourselves. We pay five hundred dollars 992 00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,640 Speaker 1: a month for health insurance for our son. We are young, healthy, 993 00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:23,240 Speaker 1: and have no pre existing conditions beyond an entrepreneurial spirit. 994 00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:26,360 Speaker 1: The trade skills we have used to guarantee a comfortable 995 00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:30,040 Speaker 1: life for families, free from out of control childcare costs 996 00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:34,720 Speaker 1: and astronomical health insurance premiums. But today too many Washington 997 00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,359 Speaker 1: families who work for a living are struggling to make 998 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:41,239 Speaker 1: ends meet, having to make tough choices and painful sacrifices, 999 00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,960 Speaker 1: while big corporate interests maximize their profits at our expense. 1000 00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,920 Speaker 1: We don't need another corporate shill or extremist in Congress. 1001 00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:53,160 Speaker 1: I will fight for working Washingtonians just like me. Join me. 1002 00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,200 Speaker 1: She had me at You don't need another corporate shill 1003 00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,040 Speaker 1: at Washington. But I mean, you don't think it's fair 1004 00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:01,799 Speaker 1: to call him a corporate shape. He has always been here. Look, 1005 00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:03,799 Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm a fan of Joe Kent. What 1006 00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,400 Speaker 1: I am saying is that he was probably as analogous 1007 00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,880 Speaker 1: to like Tucker thought as a candidate that exists. Now, 1008 00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:11,560 Speaker 1: that's not necessarily a good thing if you're going to 1009 00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,960 Speaker 1: run and lose in a pretty held GOP's play. But 1010 00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:16,680 Speaker 1: he's had some good things on Ukraine, and he was 1011 00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:20,600 Speaker 1: always willing to like contest the quote unquote Gop consensus too. 1012 00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:22,880 Speaker 1: I don't know anything about all this proud boy stuff. 1013 00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:24,840 Speaker 1: What I do know is what I think personally doomed 1014 00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,440 Speaker 1: him was stop the steal. I think that when all 1015 00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:29,640 Speaker 1: him to stop the steel, abortion was another big one. 1016 00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,160 Speaker 1: I know that she also talked about that quite a bit. 1017 00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:34,320 Speaker 1: So I don't know how much her whole working class 1018 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:37,000 Speaker 1: thing actually had any difference as him being like I mean, 1019 00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,680 Speaker 1: pretty crazy. I think it's probably something. But that's why 1020 00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,360 Speaker 1: I am because you had, you know, you had a 1021 00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,400 Speaker 1: real model. So like Sean Patrick Maloney, chair of the 1022 00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,759 Speaker 1: d Triple c ran the DNC playbook, you know by 1023 00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,880 Speaker 1: the book flooded with cash, six million dollars in d 1024 00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:54,840 Speaker 1: triple c flows into his race and he gets his 1025 00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,440 Speaker 1: ass kicked in a Biden plus ten district. You have 1026 00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,160 Speaker 1: this woman who comes out of nowhere. And yes, she 1027 00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,360 Speaker 1: had a candidate who you know who definitely appeared to 1028 00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:06,400 Speaker 1: the electorate as an extremist, if it was Jamie Herrera Butler. 1029 00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,920 Speaker 1: I think she recruised to reelection, no doubt about it. 1030 00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,200 Speaker 1: But you can also see in the way that she 1031 00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,360 Speaker 1: approached her campaign she took a different tag. It reminds 1032 00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,480 Speaker 1: me of and this is actually a perfect example. So 1033 00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,720 Speaker 1: remember when we covered Pat Ryan winning that special election 1034 00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:23,480 Speaker 1: in upstate New York, was down in the down in 1035 00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:27,880 Speaker 1: the polls. He ends up running on abortion, also running 1036 00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:31,520 Speaker 1: on this like economic populist message Pat Ryan. It turns 1037 00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,879 Speaker 1: out in the newly drawn districts, he ran in the 1038 00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:38,200 Speaker 1: one that Sean Patrick Maloney had jumped out of that 1039 00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:40,440 Speaker 1: he thought was too hard for him to win. So 1040 00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:42,640 Speaker 1: Jean Patrick mulleney goes over to this district that he 1041 00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,760 Speaker 1: thinks is safe and gets runs the standard corporatists campaign 1042 00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,080 Speaker 1: and gets his ask kick Pat Ryan in the district 1043 00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:51,120 Speaker 1: that Jean Patrick mulleney said was too hard to win, 1044 00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:55,640 Speaker 1: he ran that same like economic populist plus abortion campaign 1045 00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:59,040 Speaker 1: and he won. Dude, is you know, barely an incumbent. 1046 00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:03,080 Speaker 1: So it's an incredible You see these little regional variations 1047 00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,880 Speaker 1: and you have to dig into like, well, why was 1048 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,240 Speaker 1: Pat Ryan able to win in this more difficult district 1049 00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:10,280 Speaker 1: in New York and a you're those bad for Democrats 1050 00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,839 Speaker 1: in New York and John Patrick Maloney loses and this 1051 00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:14,960 Speaker 1: woman you know out west, who basically no one gave 1052 00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,040 Speaker 1: a shot to, is able to ultimately pull it out 1053 00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:19,719 Speaker 1: off so I think what was interesting to me is 1054 00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,120 Speaker 1: that you had both the story on the Republican side 1055 00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:26,000 Speaker 1: of extremist candidate losing totally winnable seat, but also a 1056 00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,080 Speaker 1: really interesting campaign being run on the Democratic side that 1057 00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,560 Speaker 1: I think had to, you know, ultimately have an impact 1058 00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:34,480 Speaker 1: here and obviously resonated with the public in that district. 1059 00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,120 Speaker 1: The test will be can she beat a Norman Republican 1060 00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,839 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two? Right? I don't think so. I 1061 00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:43,239 Speaker 1: mean it depends. Yeah, because also commentcy bias is very strong. Well, 1062 00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:44,680 Speaker 1: that's what I was going to say, because now you're 1063 00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:48,040 Speaker 1: an incumbent. Yeah that you know, that helps, and we'll 1064 00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:51,160 Speaker 1: see what twenty twenty four looks like for Democrats and Republicans. 1065 00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:53,680 Speaker 1: At this point, I would say, we have no idea. Yeah, 1066 00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,200 Speaker 1: I think that is all I've been all I have 1067 00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,400 Speaker 1: learned from these elections. Don't know anything, but it is exciting. 1068 00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,200 Speaker 1: I will say that I love watching the results and 1069 00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,759 Speaker 1: seeing the regional variation and is actually something gives me 1070 00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:06,400 Speaker 1: a lot of hope because if we can return some 1071 00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:09,759 Speaker 1: level of localism to politics, there is something there, you know, 1072 00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,640 Speaker 1: in terms of something you work. I don't want to 1073 00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,520 Speaker 1: overstate it. Yeah, a very very small margin and also 1074 00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:17,040 Speaker 1: maybe ninety ten, but it used to be ninety five fives. 1075 00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:20,480 Speaker 1: It's also like it is this theed now anomaly? And 1076 00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,200 Speaker 1: is it just because Trump is not in presidency and 1077 00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:26,279 Speaker 1: Trump is not on the ballot. But you did see 1078 00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:30,120 Speaker 1: a return of like, oh, people are actually evaluating these 1079 00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,120 Speaker 1: candidates and their platforms and what they're saying, and you 1080 00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:35,520 Speaker 1: know whether they're like totally psycho and way too out 1081 00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,319 Speaker 1: there or not. And that is encouraging to see. I mean, 1082 00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:41,240 Speaker 1: you could very clearly see there was in this race 1083 00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:43,680 Speaker 1: and carry Lake and a bunch of other ones, there 1084 00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,880 Speaker 1: was a huge price to pay for stop the steal. 1085 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,920 Speaker 1: You called that immediately. I mean, when you saw that 1086 00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:52,319 Speaker 1: Parkol also limit you called that. I mean, and when 1087 00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:53,719 Speaker 1: you saw that Perpole, is that this is going to 1088 00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:55,640 Speaker 1: be a big problem for them, Like good luck if 1089 00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,440 Speaker 1: this is going to become the obsession of your party, 1090 00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:58,719 Speaker 1: and it did in a lot of ways. I mean, 1091 00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:02,439 Speaker 1: that's why a joke and ultimately wins the primary and 1092 00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,359 Speaker 1: you know, loses a very winnable a seat that should 1093 00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:07,200 Speaker 1: have been a lay up for Republicans if they had 1094 00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:09,640 Speaker 1: their incumbent there. Ultimately, that's This is the issue with 1095 00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,759 Speaker 1: slavish Trump devotion, which is like, when he says something good, 1096 00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,400 Speaker 1: you can be like, okay, wellah, I agree with that. 1097 00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,279 Speaker 1: When he says something stupid, you'd be like, wow, that's 1098 00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,240 Speaker 1: really stupid. And you saw a lot of people proclown 1099 00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:20,680 Speaker 1: themselves wanting to play footseet with that. And in some 1100 00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:23,440 Speaker 1: way I am hertin, which is that Americans don't like freaks. 1101 00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:25,759 Speaker 1: They don't like theocratic freaks, and they also don't like 1102 00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:29,680 Speaker 1: people who are freakishly devoted to Donald Trump for no 1103 00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:33,600 Speaker 1: particular reason other than like political cravenness. So look, in 1104 00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,360 Speaker 1: some ways I am heartened by the election and looking 1105 00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:39,560 Speaker 1: at that because I think that people people are showing 1106 00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:43,000 Speaker 1: that they think for themselves. They're not slavish. They also, look, 1107 00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,520 Speaker 1: you know, they showed us on inflation and on elsewhere 1108 00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:47,279 Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, well you know, what are you going 1109 00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:48,920 Speaker 1: to do about it? Right, And they also showed us 1110 00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:52,360 Speaker 1: that they are not automatons or stupid enough to just say, well, 1111 00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:55,120 Speaker 1: he say inflation bad, so I vote for him. You know, 1112 00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:58,360 Speaker 1: they're like, well, actually they're very multifascet. So yeah. My 1113 00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:01,480 Speaker 1: major takeaway is like, you know, just affirms like how 1114 00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:04,320 Speaker 1: much I think we should continue to put trust in people. 1115 00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,000 Speaker 1: They're not as dumb as many people here like. Yeah, 1116 00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:09,719 Speaker 1: and the amount of ticket splitting shows that as well, 1117 00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:11,960 Speaker 1: where people were really a value. Okay, this one, I'm 1118 00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:14,120 Speaker 1: good like. I'm good with this one. You know, Brent 1119 00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,440 Speaker 1: Kemp and Georgia I stood up to Trump. I respect that. 1120 00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:18,920 Speaker 1: The other hand, I'm not sure about this herschel Walker guy, 1121 00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:20,920 Speaker 1: maybe I'm going to vote for Rafael. We're not there. 1122 00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:27,840 Speaker 1: Instead you add the slate of election denying secretary of State. Yeah, 1123 00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:32,279 Speaker 1: every one of them lost. I mean again, incredible repudiation 1124 00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:36,200 Speaker 1: of that whole direction of the Republican Party. And you know, 1125 00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:37,839 Speaker 1: we'll talk about this more when we get to Trump 1126 00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,160 Speaker 1: about to announce this presidential campaign. But the question is 1127 00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:42,880 Speaker 1: whether they're like too far down the rabbit hole to 1128 00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,120 Speaker 1: be able to everybody. Anybody with a brain in the 1129 00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:48,719 Speaker 1: Republican Party right now sees this is a problem for them. 1130 00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:51,759 Speaker 1: But can they ultimately walk away from Trump? Can they 1131 00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,120 Speaker 1: pull the party back after they've let it go this far? 1132 00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:56,359 Speaker 1: Hard to say, Yeah, I think it is very hard 1133 00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:58,360 Speaker 1: to say. Look, we'll talk more about this in the 1134 00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:03,120 Speaker 1: Trump Yeah, let's get to Ukraine, because there's also a 1135 00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,080 Speaker 1: lot going on there. Right now, let's put this up 1136 00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:06,920 Speaker 1: there on the screen. We had this last night with 1137 00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,520 Speaker 1: as Russia completed its full retreat from the city of Kerson, 1138 00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,640 Speaker 1: which we'll all remember the annexed not that long ago, 1139 00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:18,880 Speaker 1: and in a genuinely humiliating act, Zelensky has visited Kerson 1140 00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:23,319 Speaker 1: only days after the Russian retreat, putting himself squarely in 1141 00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,560 Speaker 1: the middle of the city center and vowing to reclaim 1142 00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:29,279 Speaker 1: all of Ukraine's quote, we are step by step coming 1143 00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,080 Speaker 1: to all of our country. I am happy that we 1144 00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:35,320 Speaker 1: are here in Curson, literally just days after Ukrainians marched 1145 00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,840 Speaker 1: into the city. Let's go ahead and put this video 1146 00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:41,920 Speaker 1: that we cut of Ukrainian forces marching back into the city. 1147 00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,840 Speaker 1: You can see look at the amount of Ukrainian flags 1148 00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:47,279 Speaker 1: of people that are swarming the streets, of people which 1149 00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:50,120 Speaker 1: are happy. This, by the way, is what Russia wants 1150 00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,080 Speaker 1: you to believe, is Russia. This is how you are 1151 00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:56,840 Speaker 1: being greeted supposedly in a quote foreign country. I can't 1152 00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:01,000 Speaker 1: think of anything more than a massive repudiation to Kremlin 1153 00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:03,799 Speaker 1: claims about how all of these places even want to 1154 00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:06,319 Speaker 1: be Russian and all that then the fact that they 1155 00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,279 Speaker 1: were greeted as heroes and liberators in what is supposedly 1156 00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:12,919 Speaker 1: foreign territory that always wanted to be there. So, I mean, 1157 00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:16,680 Speaker 1: there is no better fu than literally marching back into 1158 00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,879 Speaker 1: territory that you claim is officially yours. Also, I want 1159 00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:22,799 Speaker 1: us to zoom out a little bit. This is part 1160 00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,400 Speaker 1: of why the strategic ambiguity on the Russian part is 1161 00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:30,359 Speaker 1: maddening and so difficult and dangerous. According to them, this 1162 00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:34,120 Speaker 1: is sovereign Russian Federation territory. Well, you just had the 1163 00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:37,160 Speaker 1: president of a foreign country, supposedly according to your law, 1164 00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:39,960 Speaker 1: march into that and you're not really doing anything about it. 1165 00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,560 Speaker 1: So then how are we supposed to know when you're 1166 00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:45,120 Speaker 1: bluffing and when you're not. This is what causes a 1167 00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:49,120 Speaker 1: tremendous amount of uncertainty, and it's pushing things possibly in 1168 00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:52,799 Speaker 1: a more favorable direction towards negotiation, which is where things 1169 00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:54,560 Speaker 1: are kind of looking at right now. But I think 1170 00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:57,320 Speaker 1: the top line takeaway, crystal, which is that the Ukrainians 1171 00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,200 Speaker 1: really had them up until today. I've talked here before. 1172 00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:03,760 Speaker 1: November sixteenth is generally regarded as a universal turning point 1173 00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,560 Speaker 1: towards the muddy season towards the cold, it just becomes 1174 00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:08,560 Speaker 1: far too cold in order to wage any sort of 1175 00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:12,919 Speaker 1: full scale warfare. The Russians, despite conscriptions and despite all 1176 00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:15,920 Speaker 1: of the all of the material they're trying to mass, 1177 00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:18,240 Speaker 1: they don't seem to have the capacity right now to 1178 00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:21,200 Speaker 1: mount a real offensive in the twenty twenty three fighting season. 1179 00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:23,840 Speaker 1: So for them to end the note on a withdrawal 1180 00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:28,280 Speaker 1: like this humiliating, possibly leading us in a more favorable direction. 1181 00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:29,560 Speaker 1: You have anything went out on Curson Before we get 1182 00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:31,840 Speaker 1: to negotiation, just a couple quick things. First of all, 1183 00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:35,560 Speaker 1: we did have a Krumlin comment on Zelenski's trip to Carson. 1184 00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,920 Speaker 1: They say, quote, we will leave this without comment. You 1185 00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:42,840 Speaker 1: know that this is territory of the Russian Federation, Okay, 1186 00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:46,440 Speaker 1: And I do think it underscores again what a foolish 1187 00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:49,920 Speaker 1: move they made, because there was this sort of sense 1188 00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:53,480 Speaker 1: that Crimea was different, that this was a real red line. 1189 00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,800 Speaker 1: But then when you go and do these pretend referendums 1190 00:57:56,840 --> 00:58:00,240 Speaker 1: and pretend like Carson is also part of Russia, you 1191 00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:03,320 Speaker 1: really make it a lot less clear where your actual 1192 00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,600 Speaker 1: red lines are, which I think is bad for Russia. 1193 00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:08,840 Speaker 1: I also do think it is a dangerous situation. And 1194 00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:11,000 Speaker 1: the thought is, you know, I was trying to gauge, 1195 00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:13,120 Speaker 1: which is impossible thing to do, but I was trying 1196 00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:15,960 Speaker 1: to gauge a little bit of how the Russian domestic 1197 00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:20,160 Speaker 1: population was was sort of taking in this retreat and 1198 00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:24,280 Speaker 1: this humiliating loss ultimately, and you know, you do have 1199 00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:27,920 Speaker 1: some of the pro war like, you know, ultra like 1200 00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:30,720 Speaker 1: to the right of Putin, like militarists who are very 1201 00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,760 Speaker 1: upset about this once again. And I think the idea 1202 00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:36,840 Speaker 1: for Russia strategically is basically like they didn't feel like 1203 00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:39,400 Speaker 1: they had the ability to hold Curson for the winter, 1204 00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:41,920 Speaker 1: so they decided to fall back, dig in their trench 1205 00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:44,200 Speaker 1: lines and try to be able to hold on to 1206 00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,720 Speaker 1: a more defensible position going into the cold months. Yeah. 1207 00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:50,800 Speaker 1: Alexander Dugan, whose daughter was assassinated, you know, possibly by 1208 00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:55,760 Speaker 1: Ukrainian forces, actually criticized Putin directly basically saying, he said, 1209 00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,200 Speaker 1: what if he the fate of the king of the reigns? 1210 00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:01,919 Speaker 1: Autocracy has a downside, completeness of power in the case 1211 00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:05,680 Speaker 1: success and completeness of responsibility for failure. You thought, otherwise, 1212 00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,240 Speaker 1: basically issuing a threat kind of from the Russian ultranacini 1213 00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:13,160 Speaker 1: ultranationalists against Putin. Who knows whether it's controlled opposition or not. 1214 00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:16,280 Speaker 1: But look at this point, you know, Richard Hanania said this, 1215 00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,000 Speaker 1: and I think this is a if you think about 1216 00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:22,880 Speaker 1: the side by side of Zelensky marching into Curson and 1217 00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:28,440 Speaker 1: Putin cowering in like COVID madness, impossible illness, sending his 1218 00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:30,800 Speaker 1: foreign minister to the G twenty because he doesn't really 1219 00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:33,680 Speaker 1: have the balls to look actual foreign leaders in the face. 1220 00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:37,000 Speaker 1: It's humiliating. I mean, how else can you describe it, 1221 00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:40,840 Speaker 1: to have this like aging autocrat in Russia having launched 1222 00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:43,840 Speaker 1: now this failed war, being humiliated. I'm not saying it 1223 00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:47,160 Speaker 1: isn't still dangerous, but you know, he's betting, he's betting 1224 00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:49,640 Speaker 1: the house hit the fate of his regime really on 1225 00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:51,680 Speaker 1: the future of this, because let's think about this. If 1226 00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:56,360 Speaker 1: he retreated fully and capitulated, he would his grasp on power, 1227 00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,240 Speaker 1: his entire sale to the Russian public, they'd be like, well, 1228 00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:01,000 Speaker 1: what was the point of all of this? You know, 1229 01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:03,560 Speaker 1: Russia is not democratic, but it's a lot more democratic 1230 01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:05,320 Speaker 1: than it was, you know, a while back, and that 1231 01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:07,960 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that they can't have major social strife too, 1232 01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:11,080 Speaker 1: so I predict big problems on the horizon for the Russians, 1233 01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,120 Speaker 1: and look, it's literally all of their fault. So I 1234 01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:15,960 Speaker 1: don't have a particular sympathy. Okay, let's get now to 1235 01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:19,720 Speaker 1: the negotiation part. This is really interesting. There is a 1236 01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:23,000 Speaker 1: full scale kind of shadow war here in Washington over 1237 01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:26,560 Speaker 1: whether we should urge diplomacy or Ukraine or not. So 1238 01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:28,880 Speaker 1: let's put this on the screen. These are very calculated leaks. 1239 01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:32,120 Speaker 1: So the Pentagon is leaking that the top general, General 1240 01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,240 Speaker 1: Mark Milli, the chairman of the Joint Chiees of Staff, 1241 01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:37,120 Speaker 1: is repeatedly and fortunately making the case in the situation 1242 01:00:37,240 --> 01:00:39,520 Speaker 1: room that the Ukrainian should try to cement their gains 1243 01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:41,920 Speaker 1: at the bargaining table right now. So let me read 1244 01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:44,720 Speaker 1: this to you. A disagreement has emerged at the highest 1245 01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:47,040 Speaker 1: levels of the government or whether to press Ukraine to 1246 01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:50,280 Speaker 1: seek diplomatic end to this war. America's top general is 1247 01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:53,480 Speaker 1: urging negotiation, while other advisors of President Biden argue it 1248 01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:57,480 Speaker 1: is too soon. General Milli said in internal meetings, Ukrainians 1249 01:00:57,480 --> 01:00:59,439 Speaker 1: have achieved about as much as they can reasonably expect 1250 01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:02,200 Speaker 1: on the battle before winter sets in. They should try 1251 01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,040 Speaker 1: to cement their games at the bargaining table. However, senior 1252 01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:08,320 Speaker 1: officials have resisted that idea, maintaining that neither side is 1253 01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:10,520 Speaker 1: ready to negotiate and that any pause in the fighting 1254 01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:13,840 Speaker 1: would give Putin a chance to regroup. Biden advisors believe 1255 01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:16,320 Speaker 1: the war will likely be settled through the negotiations eventually, 1256 01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:18,480 Speaker 1: but they have concluded that the moment is not yet 1257 01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:20,600 Speaker 1: ripe and the United States should not be seen as 1258 01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,880 Speaker 1: pressuring the Ukrainians to hold back while they have momentum. 1259 01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:27,520 Speaker 1: So then National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan weighed in board 1260 01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:30,040 Speaker 1: Air Force one on the way to Bali. Let's put 1261 01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:31,960 Speaker 1: that up there, and I want to read you directly 1262 01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:35,000 Speaker 1: from this quote. Here's what he says. The United States 1263 01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:37,320 Speaker 1: approach remains the same today as it was six months ago. 1264 01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:39,920 Speaker 1: We're going to do everything we can, including our announcement, 1265 01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:43,600 Speaker 1: our military announcement, our military security assistants, to put Ukraine 1266 01:01:43,640 --> 01:01:45,720 Speaker 1: in the best possible position on the battlefield, so that 1267 01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,200 Speaker 1: when they make their determination to proceed, they're in the 1268 01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:51,480 Speaker 1: best possible position at the negotiating table. There is this 1269 01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:54,320 Speaker 1: sense of Ukraine going to negotiate ultimately at a thirty 1270 01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:57,080 Speaker 1: thousand foot level, Ukraine is the party of peace. Russia 1271 01:01:57,160 --> 01:01:59,439 Speaker 1: is the party of war. Ukraine and Russia invaded Ukraine. 1272 01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:01,880 Speaker 1: If Russia, who's stop fighting and left, it would be 1273 01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:03,439 Speaker 1: the end of the war. If Ukraine should stop fighting 1274 01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:04,920 Speaker 1: and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine. 1275 01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:06,880 Speaker 1: So this notion in the Western press of when is 1276 01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:10,840 Speaker 1: Ukrainian negotiate misses the underlying fundamentals, which is that Russia continues, 1277 01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:12,760 Speaker 1: even as recently as the last twenty four hours, to 1278 01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:15,800 Speaker 1: make outlandish claims about Russian annex territory. So that's kind 1279 01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,960 Speaker 1: of the high level view. But here's the bigger confounding 1280 01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:22,160 Speaker 1: variable crystal, which is that this morning we are learning 1281 01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:26,680 Speaker 1: that Jake Sullivan has apparently been pressuring the Ukrainians behind 1282 01:02:26,720 --> 01:02:30,440 Speaker 1: the scenes to say, hey, you need to stop talking 1283 01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:35,160 Speaker 1: about Crimea. And that is where I almost feel like 1284 01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:37,840 Speaker 1: there's this shadow campaign going on in the media where 1285 01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:39,920 Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan and the Biden people need to keep the 1286 01:02:40,040 --> 01:02:42,880 Speaker 1: Ukraine stands mollified. They're like, no, we would never pressure them. 1287 01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:45,720 Speaker 1: But then apparently behind the scenes there's some interesting stuff. 1288 01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:48,000 Speaker 1: So to have the top general leak that out, that 1289 01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:50,200 Speaker 1: could be a shot across the bow to say Hey, 1290 01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:52,720 Speaker 1: you know your universal support in the Pentagon that was 1291 01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,480 Speaker 1: long there. Well that's not there. And from what I'm hearing, 1292 01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:58,400 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why Millie is pressuring the Ukrainians 1293 01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:01,080 Speaker 1: to negotiate is not only because of what he thinks 1294 01:03:01,120 --> 01:03:03,560 Speaker 1: is good for Ukraine. He's looking at our stockpiles of 1295 01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:06,160 Speaker 1: Javelin missiles and many other things that we've shipped. He's like, 1296 01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:08,080 Speaker 1: we can't keep this thing going on forever. He's like, 1297 01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:11,560 Speaker 1: we're running low on very critical military supplies. So here 1298 01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:14,080 Speaker 1: is a leak to the Wall Street Journal. Just this morning, 1299 01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:18,520 Speaker 1: two European diplomats briefed on the discussions, says mister Sullivan 1300 01:03:18,560 --> 01:03:22,040 Speaker 1: has told Zelenski's team start thinking about realistic demands and 1301 01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:26,320 Speaker 1: priorities for negotiations, including your reconsideration of your stated aim 1302 01:03:26,600 --> 01:03:30,800 Speaker 1: for Ukraine to regain Crimea, which was annexed in twenty fourteen. 1303 01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:36,000 Speaker 1: So that is a major major leak coming out the 1304 01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:39,560 Speaker 1: fact that Sullivan would be willing to say that this morning. Also, 1305 01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:43,680 Speaker 1: there's an interesting meeting going on in Europe. We don't 1306 01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:47,360 Speaker 1: have the full details on this exactly, but the Russian 1307 01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:49,600 Speaker 1: media is reporting that the he if do you want 1308 01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:51,960 Speaker 1: to go out to it. Yeah, So originally it was 1309 01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:53,640 Speaker 1: just being reported in the Russian media, but now the 1310 01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:57,160 Speaker 1: White House has actually confirmed that CIA dior actor Bill 1311 01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:01,480 Speaker 1: Burns is in Ankara for the first direct US Russia 1312 01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:06,160 Speaker 1: contacts since Putin invaded Ukraine. Burns delivered a message, according 1313 01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:08,960 Speaker 1: to the US quote, on the consequences of the use 1314 01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:12,240 Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons by Russia and the risks of escalation 1315 01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:15,720 Speaker 1: to strategic stability. Now, I don't doubt that that was 1316 01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:18,800 Speaker 1: part of the conversation, but given this other chatter about 1317 01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:22,320 Speaker 1: potential negotiations, I mean, this could have also been you know, 1318 01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:26,560 Speaker 1: some conversations about what opening up more channels might ultimately 1319 01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:29,680 Speaker 1: look like. Yeah. I think it's interesting in terms of 1320 01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:33,320 Speaker 1: what exactly it will all mean, because yeah, I mean, 1321 01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:37,200 Speaker 1: Bill Burns actually has done some secret diplomacy for US 1322 01:04:37,200 --> 01:04:39,640 Speaker 1: in the past. He was dispatched, I think for the Saudis. 1323 01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,600 Speaker 1: He's been working behind the scenes, I know, with the Venezuelans. 1324 01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:45,080 Speaker 1: So he's kind of been like a quasi diplomat for 1325 01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:47,600 Speaker 1: the Biden administration. Obviously, you know, as ciach if he 1326 01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:49,840 Speaker 1: has a lot of authority in speaking on behalf of 1327 01:04:49,880 --> 01:04:52,320 Speaker 1: the government, and it will keep it. It will keep 1328 01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:55,240 Speaker 1: it very much secret, given the fact that the two 1329 01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:58,520 Speaker 1: counterparts could could be meeting. Yeah, to be very clear 1330 01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:01,000 Speaker 1: about that. So a lot's going on, you know, to 1331 01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:04,360 Speaker 1: have the fact that Biden today is actually in Bali 1332 01:05:04,560 --> 01:05:07,200 Speaker 1: at the G twenty. Here's another interesting one meeting with 1333 01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:09,320 Speaker 1: she which is a whole had a meeting with Shishinping. 1334 01:05:09,400 --> 01:05:11,080 Speaker 1: You know, we'll probably do all segment on that tomorrow. 1335 01:05:11,160 --> 01:05:14,080 Speaker 1: But in terms of flash for what matters for everyone here, 1336 01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:18,600 Speaker 1: Biden g agreed, quote nuclear war should never be fought 1337 01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:23,400 Speaker 1: by effectively condemning Russian nuclear threats. Of course, I agree 1338 01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:25,240 Speaker 1: that nuclear war has been I mean, I guess that's good. 1339 01:05:25,640 --> 01:05:29,280 Speaker 1: But for the Chinese, you know, for them, that is uh, 1340 01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,360 Speaker 1: that's not nothing. Just for she to meet directly with 1341 01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,360 Speaker 1: Biden is a bit of a rebuke to Russia. And 1342 01:05:35,360 --> 01:05:37,720 Speaker 1: then we've had, you know, the comments that she has 1343 01:05:37,760 --> 01:05:40,360 Speaker 1: made previously. You know, the other thing I wanted to 1344 01:05:40,360 --> 01:05:43,520 Speaker 1: say about the politics of this with Ukraine is, first 1345 01:05:43,560 --> 01:05:45,400 Speaker 1: of all, I can't help but go back to the 1346 01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:51,080 Speaker 1: you know, aborted progressive letter that, in the mildest possible terms, 1347 01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:56,360 Speaker 1: called for basically what the administration is now floating, which is, hey, 1348 01:05:56,520 --> 01:05:58,560 Speaker 1: you know Ukraine, you run the show like you do 1349 01:05:58,600 --> 01:06:00,360 Speaker 1: what you want to do, but maybe we should try 1350 01:06:00,440 --> 01:06:03,240 Speaker 1: to look potentially possibly at some point in the future 1351 01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:06,520 Speaker 1: at negotiations. And now we see that this debate is 1352 01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:08,440 Speaker 1: really happening in the administration, I kind of read it 1353 01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:10,560 Speaker 1: like you Dosager, that actually there may be less of 1354 01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:13,080 Speaker 1: a debate going on and more of an attempt to 1355 01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:15,080 Speaker 1: put up to the media this idea of like a 1356 01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:18,200 Speaker 1: good cop bad cop kind of a situation. And then 1357 01:06:18,200 --> 01:06:20,480 Speaker 1: the other thing that there is to say is the 1358 01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:24,560 Speaker 1: fact that now the Republicans in the House are going 1359 01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:29,440 Speaker 1: to have such an incredibly narrow majority makes it much 1360 01:06:29,480 --> 01:06:31,960 Speaker 1: less likely that the House Republicans are in any way 1361 01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:34,880 Speaker 1: going to challenge whatever the direction that the Biden administration 1362 01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:37,960 Speaker 1: ultimately takes the Ukrainian policy in Yeah, that's exactly right, 1363 01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:39,840 Speaker 1: which is for Ukraine is the best possible thing that 1364 01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:42,320 Speaker 1: could have ever happened to you for the US political system. 1365 01:06:42,400 --> 01:06:44,520 Speaker 1: So lots of interesting stuff going on. I did want 1366 01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:47,040 Speaker 1: to read one interesting quote which was a leak to 1367 01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:50,200 Speaker 1: the Financial Times. They say, according to four people were 1368 01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:52,920 Speaker 1: briefed on February meeting, she was caught off guard by 1369 01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,840 Speaker 1: the invasion by Putin did not warn him in advance, 1370 01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:58,920 Speaker 1: jeopardizing the safety of thousands of Chinese nationals who are 1371 01:06:58,960 --> 01:07:01,400 Speaker 1: living in Ukraine. Yeah, Phutin did not tell she the truth, 1372 01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:03,880 Speaker 1: a Chinese official told the Financial Times quote, if he 1373 01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:05,320 Speaker 1: had told us, we wouldn't have been in such an 1374 01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:08,640 Speaker 1: awkward position. We had more than six thousand Chinese living 1375 01:07:08,640 --> 01:07:11,760 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. Some of them died during evacuation, although we 1376 01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:15,160 Speaker 1: cannot make that public. Wow. Kind of interesting. So not 1377 01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,080 Speaker 1: as rosy as a picture in the back there and 1378 01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:21,800 Speaker 1: as a not a g green light necessarily. Look, it's 1379 01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:24,480 Speaker 1: one anonymous official who knows whether it's true or not. 1380 01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:27,800 Speaker 1: Chinese could be lying, but some cracks emerging in the 1381 01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:30,040 Speaker 1: international consensu There's some interesting things that are going on 1382 01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:32,000 Speaker 1: right now, which will continue to track. Let's move on 1383 01:07:32,040 --> 01:07:35,760 Speaker 1: to Twitter. Absolute chaos breaking out over at Twitter. Who 1384 01:07:35,760 --> 01:07:37,520 Speaker 1: could have thought, let's go to put this up there 1385 01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:40,360 Speaker 1: on the screen. This was We wanted to develop a 1386 01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:43,120 Speaker 1: whole just segment to this, in particular, which is that 1387 01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:49,720 Speaker 1: Elon is currently saying to Twitter internally that Twitter could 1388 01:07:49,760 --> 01:07:53,560 Speaker 1: go bankrupt without more cash. Now the context of that 1389 01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:57,560 Speaker 1: is important, but he held a basically surprise all hands 1390 01:07:57,600 --> 01:08:01,240 Speaker 1: on deck meeting with the entire staff, laid off about 1391 01:08:01,280 --> 01:08:05,320 Speaker 1: seventy five hundred earlier that day. Well, what happened there 1392 01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:07,760 Speaker 1: was he said, quote, this is my first email to 1393 01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,280 Speaker 1: the whole company. There's no way to sugarcoat this. Without 1394 01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:13,480 Speaker 1: significant subscription revenue, there is a good chance Twitter will 1395 01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:17,720 Speaker 1: not survive the upcoming economic downturn. Whenever somebody asked him 1396 01:08:17,800 --> 01:08:20,479 Speaker 1: about whether bankruptcy was on the table, he said, yes, 1397 01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:24,360 Speaker 1: it is certainly possible, including bankruptcy. And I don't know 1398 01:08:24,439 --> 01:08:27,160 Speaker 1: that the economic downturn is the issue here, Guys, Well, 1399 01:08:27,200 --> 01:08:29,240 Speaker 1: I don't know, Actually I don't know if that's true, Cristal, 1400 01:08:29,280 --> 01:08:31,880 Speaker 1: because you know, even normal advertising companies are already down 1401 01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:35,360 Speaker 1: by forty percent, so on the topic, I mean chaos obviously, 1402 01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:40,439 Speaker 1: like advertisers absolutely fled. Yes, Twitter, and you know already Twitter, 1403 01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:43,320 Speaker 1: you're right, was in kind of a precarious financial situation, 1404 01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:46,400 Speaker 1: but Elon has definitely exacerbated that and made it much 1405 01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:49,720 Speaker 1: more likely that any potential economic downturn is going to 1406 01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:53,200 Speaker 1: be possibly devastating. Yeah, so right now, really what we're 1407 01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:56,559 Speaker 1: seeing is that Twitter's finances are a massive mess. He's 1408 01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:59,519 Speaker 1: had both in terms of cutting the staff now having 1409 01:08:59,600 --> 01:09:02,360 Speaker 1: problems with his advertising revenue. We talked previously about saying 1410 01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:05,519 Speaker 1: that major advertisers were pausing all of their campaigns on 1411 01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:08,920 Speaker 1: the platform. He also notat we're about to get to 1412 01:09:09,240 --> 01:09:12,680 Speaker 1: this just insanity going on with the rollout of his 1413 01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:16,040 Speaker 1: pair of his verification system. Let's go and just roll 1414 01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:18,160 Speaker 1: this into this segment. Let's put the next one up 1415 01:09:18,160 --> 01:09:21,320 Speaker 1: there on the screen, which is that Twitter is now 1416 01:09:21,360 --> 01:09:24,759 Speaker 1: having to stop the rollout of its Twitter Blue granting 1417 01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:28,640 Speaker 1: out blue check functions after impersonators were taking to the platform. 1418 01:09:28,720 --> 01:09:31,320 Speaker 1: Who could have possibly seen that coming? And this just 1419 01:09:31,400 --> 01:09:35,080 Speaker 1: underscores how frankly badly thought out this all was. The 1420 01:09:35,360 --> 01:09:39,080 Speaker 1: idea behind Twitter Blue was to incur subscription revenue by 1421 01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:41,479 Speaker 1: charging for check mark. Okay, I've got no problem with that, 1422 01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:43,759 Speaker 1: But as we said, why was it chech mark invented 1423 01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:47,080 Speaker 1: in the first place to ensure the reliability of the 1424 01:09:47,120 --> 01:09:50,000 Speaker 1: information on the platform the person saying it is actually them. 1425 01:09:50,240 --> 01:09:53,720 Speaker 1: They were claiming that this would reduce spam on the platform, 1426 01:09:53,760 --> 01:09:59,280 Speaker 1: but then they didn't include any necessity to submit personal information, 1427 01:10:00,080 --> 01:10:03,240 Speaker 1: didn't require identity verify, right, it would be one thing 1428 01:10:03,280 --> 01:10:05,360 Speaker 1: if Okay, now we've got a lot more people who 1429 01:10:05,360 --> 01:10:07,960 Speaker 1: were actually verified to be who they are, but then 1430 01:10:08,000 --> 01:10:10,360 Speaker 1: they just like totally skipped the whole part of the 1431 01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:13,200 Speaker 1: verifying who you are, yes, and so it ended. I mean, 1432 01:10:13,200 --> 01:10:15,519 Speaker 1: it was it was funny. Actually, it was quite interesting. 1433 01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:17,240 Speaker 1: There were some real heroes out there who were, like, 1434 01:10:17,280 --> 01:10:20,479 Speaker 1: you know, tweeting out to Ellie Lily that insulin was 1435 01:10:20,520 --> 01:10:23,600 Speaker 1: free and impersonating all kinds of Eli. Was amusing, but 1436 01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:27,719 Speaker 1: it definitely degraded the quality of the platform. It's amusing 1437 01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:30,280 Speaker 1: for sure, because what was happening is that people were 1438 01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:33,519 Speaker 1: setting up fake accounts for like Glenn Greenwald, Bench Piro, 1439 01:10:34,200 --> 01:10:37,400 Speaker 1: Eli Lily, many companies and others, and everybody had very 1440 01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:41,479 Speaker 1: much difficulty telling whether it was true Apac, you know, others, 1441 01:10:41,479 --> 01:10:45,600 Speaker 1: and it caused a huge fury for people whose accounts 1442 01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:50,000 Speaker 1: were being impersonated. The most significant of them was actually 1443 01:10:50,040 --> 01:10:51,760 Speaker 1: Eli Lily. So let's go ahead and put this up 1444 01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:55,000 Speaker 1: there on the screen. You know. The Eli Lily stock 1445 01:10:55,400 --> 01:11:00,680 Speaker 1: dived significantly after a fake Twitter account tweeted quote, we 1446 01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:04,760 Speaker 1: are excited to announce that insulin is free tomorrow. They 1447 01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:09,080 Speaker 1: lost potentially billions in their market cap and their stock 1448 01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:12,200 Speaker 1: was tanking based upon the tweet. They had to come 1449 01:11:12,200 --> 01:11:14,200 Speaker 1: out and clarify. They're like, no, we won't be giving 1450 01:11:14,200 --> 01:11:17,200 Speaker 1: out free insulin, which actually caused an entire news cycle 1451 01:11:17,200 --> 01:11:19,400 Speaker 1: around why exactly is insolent so expensive. I guess it's 1452 01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:22,599 Speaker 1: an entire different case. But the point is is that 1453 01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:27,680 Speaker 1: verification itself was a complete disaster, and effectively Elon has 1454 01:11:27,680 --> 01:11:30,479 Speaker 1: now had to reverse course stopping Twitter blue in the 1455 01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:32,400 Speaker 1: rollout of the check marks. Although the people who already 1456 01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:34,160 Speaker 1: have the check marks, we'll get to keep the check marks. 1457 01:11:34,200 --> 01:11:36,280 Speaker 1: And that's put this one on the screen. He now says, 1458 01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:41,320 Speaker 1: quote rolling out soon Twitter will enable organizations to identify 1459 01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:45,760 Speaker 1: which other Twitter accounts are actually associated with them, so 1460 01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:49,240 Speaker 1: he says, ultimately Twitter will be the final arbiter as 1461 01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:53,479 Speaker 1: to who these organizations are, which really belies the entire 1462 01:11:53,560 --> 01:11:56,559 Speaker 1: question of why we're doing this in the first place. Look, 1463 01:11:56,840 --> 01:11:59,240 Speaker 1: I get the impetus. I've said there before. I think 1464 01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:02,559 Speaker 1: charging people is a great, great idea. This just is 1465 01:12:02,640 --> 01:12:06,320 Speaker 1: clearly not working because the entire impetus the value the 1466 01:12:06,360 --> 01:12:10,920 Speaker 1: platform was reliability of the information and elite discourse. There's 1467 01:12:10,920 --> 01:12:12,439 Speaker 1: a better way to charge of this. I did a 1468 01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:15,000 Speaker 1: whole monologue on Twitter for Enterprise and I think that's 1469 01:12:15,040 --> 01:12:18,320 Speaker 1: looking better by the day after. How terribly this entire 1470 01:12:18,320 --> 01:12:22,160 Speaker 1: thing is gone. I mean, it's just an absolute cluster, 1471 01:12:22,720 --> 01:12:26,160 Speaker 1: and it's a cluster on a business perspective. By the way, 1472 01:12:26,280 --> 01:12:28,120 Speaker 1: I'm not shedding a tear for them this part. I 1473 01:12:28,120 --> 01:12:30,839 Speaker 1: think it's gilorious, but Eli Lilly still has not recovered. 1474 01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:34,040 Speaker 1: There's a price since this happened. And by the way, goodbye, 1475 01:12:34,160 --> 01:12:38,200 Speaker 1: it wasn't just them, it was other insulin makers. I 1476 01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:41,760 Speaker 1: also saw there's a stock price in their overall valuation 1477 01:12:42,040 --> 01:12:45,920 Speaker 1: like plummet with this fake tweet that went out. So 1478 01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:48,600 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I delayed in that particular example, but 1479 01:12:48,840 --> 01:12:53,000 Speaker 1: it's just complete chaos. None of it was thought through whatsoever. 1480 01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:56,960 Speaker 1: So from a business perspective, clearly a disaster. And then 1481 01:12:57,160 --> 01:12:59,960 Speaker 1: you know, the whole supposed like, oh, I'm doing this 1482 01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:01,960 Speaker 1: is not for the money but for the free speech, 1483 01:13:02,040 --> 01:13:05,400 Speaker 1: Like obviously that's not the case. That's like really clearly 1484 01:13:05,479 --> 01:13:08,000 Speaker 1: not the end goal of the decisions that are being 1485 01:13:08,000 --> 01:13:11,400 Speaker 1: made right now with regards to whether Twitter declares bankruptcy 1486 01:13:11,479 --> 01:13:13,559 Speaker 1: or not without more cash. It's like, dude, you're a 1487 01:13:13,600 --> 01:13:15,519 Speaker 1: billionaire if you want to put more cash in, if 1488 01:13:15,520 --> 01:13:17,240 Speaker 1: this is like your thing if you're all in and 1489 01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:19,559 Speaker 1: you sold stock, you had to sell like three point 1490 01:13:19,640 --> 01:13:21,799 Speaker 1: five billion in stock in order to pump the company 1491 01:13:21,880 --> 01:13:25,160 Speaker 1: and gave it running like which really I think coming 1492 01:13:25,160 --> 01:13:27,080 Speaker 1: in was like I don't care about making money off 1493 01:13:27,120 --> 01:13:30,080 Speaker 1: of this is like a public good whatever whatever, Like Okay, well, 1494 01:13:30,080 --> 01:13:31,800 Speaker 1: if you want to make it a public good and 1495 01:13:31,840 --> 01:13:33,560 Speaker 1: actually do a decent job with this, that is not 1496 01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:35,960 Speaker 1: what's happening. The real danger is is actually putting Tesla 1497 01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:37,840 Speaker 1: stock in danger because he has to seale so much 1498 01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:39,760 Speaker 1: of a stock on the open market for cash in 1499 01:13:39,840 --> 01:13:41,200 Speaker 1: order to say it. And now should be a great 1500 01:13:41,240 --> 01:13:43,639 Speaker 1: moment for Tesla because I was actually just reading about 1501 01:13:43,680 --> 01:13:47,639 Speaker 1: how sales of electric vehicles doubled in like the first 1502 01:13:47,680 --> 01:13:49,639 Speaker 1: you know quarter of this year or whatever. I mean, 1503 01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:52,639 Speaker 1: it's a huge and it's going right now is sort 1504 01:13:52,680 --> 01:13:54,479 Speaker 1: of the pivot point where and he gets a lot 1505 01:13:54,479 --> 01:13:56,120 Speaker 1: of credit for this. He really deserves a lot of 1506 01:13:56,120 --> 01:13:59,479 Speaker 1: credit for this, where electric vehicles are going from like 1507 01:14:00,200 --> 01:14:03,639 Speaker 1: early adopters in California to a much more mainstream market, 1508 01:14:03,800 --> 01:14:06,439 Speaker 1: especially some of the more affordable like the Nissan Leaf, 1509 01:14:07,120 --> 01:14:09,760 Speaker 1: some of the more affordable models where you know, this 1510 01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:12,200 Speaker 1: is I guess the solver lining of high gas prices. 1511 01:14:12,280 --> 01:14:14,160 Speaker 1: Not that I'm cheering for that, but a lot of 1512 01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:16,240 Speaker 1: people are looking at this, plus the government and centives 1513 01:14:16,280 --> 01:14:18,600 Speaker 1: and saying, oh, this adds this actually works out for 1514 01:14:18,640 --> 01:14:22,479 Speaker 1: me economically to lean into electric vehicles. So, like I said, 1515 01:14:22,520 --> 01:14:25,400 Speaker 1: it should be a great moment for Tesla. I think 1516 01:14:25,400 --> 01:14:28,240 Speaker 1: Tesla is a very important company in terms of, you know, 1517 01:14:28,280 --> 01:14:30,759 Speaker 1: what I believe in and dealing with the climate crisis 1518 01:14:30,800 --> 01:14:34,519 Speaker 1: and moving towards electrification. And instead he's like over here, 1519 01:14:34,680 --> 01:14:38,160 Speaker 1: you know, trolling senators and making chaotic decisions all over 1520 01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:40,400 Speaker 1: the place and then rolling them back in the next day. 1521 01:14:40,640 --> 01:14:42,400 Speaker 1: One other thing I wanted to point out this morning, 1522 01:14:42,479 --> 01:14:45,720 Speaker 1: and before I forget, is, you know, amidst the advertiser 1523 01:14:45,760 --> 01:14:48,519 Speaker 1: exodus and the cash crunch and all of these things, 1524 01:14:48,920 --> 01:14:53,280 Speaker 1: we just learned from CNBC that apparently SpaceX, one of 1525 01:14:53,280 --> 01:14:57,160 Speaker 1: Elon's other companies, just made a gigantic ad buy on 1526 01:14:57,240 --> 01:14:59,439 Speaker 1: the platform. So a little bit of self dealing there 1527 01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:02,680 Speaker 1: to help prop up Twitter, which is clearly not doing 1528 01:15:02,720 --> 01:15:05,040 Speaker 1: so it's gonna have that. And at this point, I mean, look, 1529 01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:06,880 Speaker 1: there's two ways to look at this. This is a 1530 01:15:06,880 --> 01:15:09,800 Speaker 1: total shit show Elon, you know, doing what he always does, 1531 01:15:09,800 --> 01:15:13,320 Speaker 1: which is running companies, you know, very chaotically. Eventually may 1532 01:15:13,360 --> 01:15:16,120 Speaker 1: actually settle up on a good business model. It's possible 1533 01:15:16,120 --> 01:15:17,439 Speaker 1: in a year from now we will look back and 1534 01:15:17,439 --> 01:15:19,519 Speaker 1: be like, wow, we actually turned the company around. He 1535 01:15:19,520 --> 01:15:21,080 Speaker 1: did it with Tesla and he did it with SpaceX. 1536 01:15:21,120 --> 01:15:22,880 Speaker 1: So I'm not going to count him out just yet. 1537 01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:24,880 Speaker 1: But you know, things have not gone as well, and 1538 01:15:24,920 --> 01:15:26,719 Speaker 1: the stakes are high. You know, you have the economy 1539 01:15:26,760 --> 01:15:29,840 Speaker 1: against you. He basically also, you know, the sources of 1540 01:15:29,840 --> 01:15:32,160 Speaker 1: his real wealth, which is Tesla and others, should not 1541 01:15:32,439 --> 01:15:36,160 Speaker 1: suffer as a result of these acquisitions. So Tesla's shareholders, 1542 01:15:36,200 --> 01:15:39,760 Speaker 1: the board there also of SpaceX, may pressure him to 1543 01:15:39,840 --> 01:15:42,800 Speaker 1: return to that. Can he really run three companies all 1544 01:15:42,800 --> 01:15:46,000 Speaker 1: at the same time. I have no absolute idea. I'm 1545 01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:49,559 Speaker 1: not willing to bet against Twitter just yet, because you know, 1546 01:15:49,840 --> 01:15:53,240 Speaker 1: on the one hand, the things failed spectacularly and they 1547 01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:55,400 Speaker 1: just pulled it right then they were like, fine, we're 1548 01:15:55,400 --> 01:15:57,920 Speaker 1: gonna redo it. But he does seem so very committed 1549 01:15:57,920 --> 01:16:01,240 Speaker 1: to this verification idea that to me almost seems ideological 1550 01:16:01,360 --> 01:16:03,960 Speaker 1: in a belief and not fully backed up, you know, 1551 01:16:04,040 --> 01:16:07,320 Speaker 1: conceptually as to what a really good product is. But eventually, 1552 01:16:07,360 --> 01:16:09,599 Speaker 1: I think he should pivot to Wars at enterprise, like 1553 01:16:09,640 --> 01:16:13,040 Speaker 1: I said, and actually settle upon some real, actual business, 1554 01:16:13,120 --> 01:16:17,360 Speaker 1: recurring revenue that would work and keep the platform reliable 1555 01:16:17,439 --> 01:16:19,479 Speaker 1: and useful in the long run. Yeah, I don't see 1556 01:16:19,720 --> 01:16:22,920 Speaker 1: another way out yet. Finally, the big news, the ones 1557 01:16:22,960 --> 01:16:26,680 Speaker 1: I guess everyone has not been waiting for it yet anyway, 1558 01:16:27,320 --> 01:16:30,000 Speaker 1: which we will be covering as a reminder live here 1559 01:16:30,040 --> 01:16:32,360 Speaker 1: at eight pm Standard time. Let's put this up there 1560 01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:35,520 Speaker 1: on the screen. Donald J. Trump has a big announcement 1561 01:16:35,640 --> 01:16:39,400 Speaker 1: for all of us on no veg. Eight nine pm 1562 01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:42,920 Speaker 1: Eastern Time from mar A Lago. No idea what's going 1563 01:16:42,960 --> 01:16:45,479 Speaker 1: to be, although it's the worst kept secret so far. 1564 01:16:46,280 --> 01:16:48,880 Speaker 1: Let's put this caveat with Trump, who the hell knows 1565 01:16:49,000 --> 01:16:50,720 Speaker 1: whether he actually goes through with it or not. It 1566 01:16:50,760 --> 01:16:52,400 Speaker 1: actually kind of fun if we're live and he doesn't 1567 01:16:52,400 --> 01:16:55,879 Speaker 1: do it, which is look right now, is inviting Tiffany 1568 01:16:55,880 --> 01:17:00,000 Speaker 1: Trump's right? Yeah, apparently Tiffany Trump got married, So right now, 1569 01:17:00,160 --> 01:17:01,519 Speaker 1: here's what we know. He says that there's going to 1570 01:17:01,560 --> 01:17:03,840 Speaker 1: be a big announcement. He's invited a lot of congressmen 1571 01:17:04,040 --> 01:17:06,519 Speaker 1: at this point, his advisors and others, so all leaked 1572 01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:08,280 Speaker 1: out to the mainstream press that it was coming on 1573 01:17:08,640 --> 01:17:10,960 Speaker 1: November fifteen. At a high level, here's what I have 1574 01:17:10,960 --> 01:17:13,599 Speaker 1: to say before we get into the criticism. He's never 1575 01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:15,679 Speaker 1: been weaker in terms of his hold on the GOP. 1576 01:17:15,840 --> 01:17:18,080 Speaker 1: I think that's clear, which is why he has to 1577 01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:21,519 Speaker 1: announce now. And I'm speaking not in the country's interests, 1578 01:17:21,560 --> 01:17:24,439 Speaker 1: in his interests. You need to freeze out all potential 1579 01:17:24,439 --> 01:17:27,800 Speaker 1: competition so that if you, if you are willing to 1580 01:17:27,880 --> 01:17:31,439 Speaker 1: challenge him, you are effectively coming out not before him, 1581 01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:34,000 Speaker 1: but saying no, I think Trump is unfit to be 1582 01:17:34,080 --> 01:17:36,920 Speaker 1: the GOP nominee in twenty twenty four. That is just 1583 01:17:36,960 --> 01:17:39,360 Speaker 1: going to put you, by definition, in a weaker position. Now. 1584 01:17:39,400 --> 01:17:41,439 Speaker 1: Two weeks ago, I would have told you you're completely crazy. 1585 01:17:41,520 --> 01:17:44,200 Speaker 1: Today I think it's more possible, although still very unlikely, 1586 01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:46,120 Speaker 1: that it could be possible, even in a head to 1587 01:17:46,160 --> 01:17:48,960 Speaker 1: head matchup. Although look, with these election results, really what 1588 01:17:49,000 --> 01:17:50,559 Speaker 1: we've shown is like, actually, a lot of the shit 1589 01:17:50,640 --> 01:17:54,280 Speaker 1: is unpopular and does the GOP base really care about uh? 1590 01:17:54,960 --> 01:17:58,439 Speaker 1: Does does the GOP base really care about electability? That's 1591 01:17:58,479 --> 01:18:00,439 Speaker 1: going to be the ultimate test, I think for they 1592 01:18:00,520 --> 01:18:03,240 Speaker 1: like Trump, but do they care about electability? Do they 1593 01:18:03,280 --> 01:18:05,719 Speaker 1: care about power personally, I don't think so. I haven't 1594 01:18:05,760 --> 01:18:07,920 Speaker 1: seen a lot of Adams for that. But look, you know, 1595 01:18:08,200 --> 01:18:09,840 Speaker 1: as we're shown, what do I know. I mean, we 1596 01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:12,840 Speaker 1: also have to consider, like they don't look at these 1597 01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:15,160 Speaker 1: election results, and they don't look at the last election 1598 01:18:15,280 --> 01:18:18,040 Speaker 1: results the way like I do. Right, they don't think 1599 01:18:18,080 --> 01:18:21,240 Speaker 1: Trump lost Seventy percent of the Republican base does not 1600 01:18:21,320 --> 01:18:24,639 Speaker 1: think Trump lost in twenty twenty. They're going to also believe, 1601 01:18:24,800 --> 01:18:26,960 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of whatever narrative he's blaming Mitch 1602 01:18:27,000 --> 01:18:29,200 Speaker 1: McConnell or whatever it ultimately is, or that it was 1603 01:18:29,280 --> 01:18:31,840 Speaker 1: rigged in Arizona, all these sorts of things, like, there's 1604 01:18:31,880 --> 01:18:34,280 Speaker 1: going to be an appetite for that as well. So 1605 01:18:34,400 --> 01:18:36,559 Speaker 1: I just think it's always important to keep in mind 1606 01:18:36,800 --> 01:18:41,040 Speaker 1: that they're not seeing this landscape in the same way 1607 01:18:41,160 --> 01:18:45,720 Speaker 1: that like I'm seeing this landscape ultimately. So yeah, I mean, 1608 01:18:45,760 --> 01:18:48,960 Speaker 1: I think it's a very different deal for Ron de 1609 01:18:49,080 --> 01:18:52,439 Speaker 1: Santis to be someone that the Republican base likes, they 1610 01:18:52,520 --> 01:18:55,759 Speaker 1: are looking forward to sometime in the future him being 1611 01:18:55,880 --> 01:18:58,800 Speaker 1: their standard bearer. A lot of what they like is 1612 01:18:58,840 --> 01:19:01,000 Speaker 1: some of the things that he frankly copied from Trump 1613 01:19:01,960 --> 01:19:05,160 Speaker 1: and It's a very different thing though, to actually go 1614 01:19:05,520 --> 01:19:08,599 Speaker 1: head to head and make the case and be able 1615 01:19:08,640 --> 01:19:11,600 Speaker 1: to dethrone the king. So I agree with you. I 1616 01:19:11,600 --> 01:19:15,160 Speaker 1: don't think Trump has been weaker since right after January sixth. 1617 01:19:15,200 --> 01:19:17,760 Speaker 1: I think there was like a week when you know, 1618 01:19:17,920 --> 01:19:21,000 Speaker 1: his grip could have been tenuous if someone had made 1619 01:19:21,000 --> 01:19:24,120 Speaker 1: a concerted play. Then they didn't. And you know, this 1620 01:19:24,280 --> 01:19:27,439 Speaker 1: is a similar moment where you know, I one hundred 1621 01:19:27,479 --> 01:19:30,120 Speaker 1: percent agree with you. For Trump, the right move politically 1622 01:19:30,240 --> 01:19:33,439 Speaker 1: is to announce right away. I saw all this, all 1623 01:19:33,479 --> 01:19:36,880 Speaker 1: these comment all this commentary from within his circles or 1624 01:19:36,960 --> 01:19:38,880 Speaker 1: leaks or whatever, people saying, oh, you got to hold 1625 01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:41,440 Speaker 1: off now, that makes no sense to me whatsoever. Politically, 1626 01:19:41,520 --> 01:19:43,600 Speaker 1: You've got to come out. But I think it's the 1627 01:19:43,640 --> 01:19:46,600 Speaker 1: same thing from the you know, would be contenders, the 1628 01:19:46,680 --> 01:19:50,360 Speaker 1: rohnd Desantises of the world. You also can't sit back 1629 01:19:50,760 --> 01:19:55,439 Speaker 1: and just let him reclaim ground because right now is 1630 01:19:55,600 --> 01:19:59,000 Speaker 1: probably like you know, where at the trough, like the 1631 01:19:59,040 --> 01:20:02,679 Speaker 1: lowest of his and the weakest that he is ultimately 1632 01:20:02,680 --> 01:20:03,920 Speaker 1: going to be. You know, once he gets if he 1633 01:20:03,920 --> 01:20:06,439 Speaker 1: gets indicted, which looks kind of likely, that'll be another 1634 01:20:06,600 --> 01:20:09,559 Speaker 1: rally round the cause, kind of a moment and if 1635 01:20:09,600 --> 01:20:14,000 Speaker 1: you haven't already come out swinging, made your claim, made 1636 01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:17,000 Speaker 1: a case, built your own base of support as a real, 1637 01:20:17,120 --> 01:20:19,439 Speaker 1: credible alternative. I think you're going to be left out 1638 01:20:19,479 --> 01:20:21,080 Speaker 1: in the cold. I agree. Okay, So let's get to 1639 01:20:21,120 --> 01:20:23,680 Speaker 1: the next part, which is we were very selective in this. 1640 01:20:23,880 --> 01:20:26,800 Speaker 1: We did not want to pick people who were never 1641 01:20:26,920 --> 01:20:29,599 Speaker 1: Trumpers who are now like Ron de san Diswance Win. 1642 01:20:30,040 --> 01:20:33,599 Speaker 1: We picked people who are Trump people who are saying 1643 01:20:33,680 --> 01:20:35,479 Speaker 1: that Trump should not run again, which is why I 1644 01:20:35,479 --> 01:20:38,200 Speaker 1: think it's this is actually far more interesting to me. 1645 01:20:38,520 --> 01:20:42,439 Speaker 1: So let's start with Mo Brooks. Woke, Mo Brooks getting 1646 01:20:42,479 --> 01:20:45,000 Speaker 1: his revenge. Mo Brooks was all in on Trump. He 1647 01:20:45,000 --> 01:20:48,559 Speaker 1: sought his endorsement, he backed him one hundred percent earlier, 1648 01:20:49,400 --> 01:20:53,200 Speaker 1: very early backer. He's more like Jeff Sessions type. Thought, well, 1649 01:20:53,400 --> 01:20:58,440 Speaker 1: he's come out and now says quote Trump is dishonest, disloyal, incompetent, 1650 01:20:58,600 --> 01:21:03,160 Speaker 1: and crude. Brook says that Trump should not be elected again. Obviously, 1651 01:21:03,200 --> 01:21:05,679 Speaker 1: you know he's a bitter because he lost his nomination 1652 01:21:06,080 --> 01:21:07,840 Speaker 1: to the US Senate. But here's what he had to say. 1653 01:21:07,920 --> 01:21:10,600 Speaker 1: Quote it would be a bad mistake for Republicans to 1654 01:21:10,640 --> 01:21:12,920 Speaker 1: have Trump is their nominee in twenty twenty four. Trump 1655 01:21:12,920 --> 01:21:15,760 Speaker 1: has proven so dishonest, disloyal, and competent, crude, a lot 1656 01:21:15,760 --> 01:21:18,920 Speaker 1: of other things that alienate many Independents and Republicans. Even 1657 01:21:18,960 --> 01:21:22,479 Speaker 1: a candidate who campaigns from his basement can beat him. Now, 1658 01:21:23,000 --> 01:21:26,080 Speaker 1: I'm not so sure that's true, because we will recall 1659 01:21:26,320 --> 01:21:29,000 Speaker 1: Moe Brooks was with Trump on everything but policy, and 1660 01:21:29,120 --> 01:21:31,880 Speaker 1: all he said was maybe we shouldn't redo the twenty 1661 01:21:31,920 --> 01:21:34,800 Speaker 1: twenty election. Trump accused him of going woke, and that 1662 01:21:34,880 --> 01:21:37,240 Speaker 1: lady Katie Bridge still kicked his ass of the primary. 1663 01:21:37,320 --> 01:21:39,720 Speaker 1: So it's not like Trump's word doesn't still have a 1664 01:21:39,720 --> 01:21:41,960 Speaker 1: hell of a lot of sway. You know what's his name, 1665 01:21:42,000 --> 01:21:45,439 Speaker 1: Tommy Tubervihill beat Jeff Sessions in Alabama. So it's not 1666 01:21:45,520 --> 01:21:47,960 Speaker 1: like he didn't have a tremendous amount of swing and 1667 01:21:48,040 --> 01:21:50,479 Speaker 1: say on that party. But for Mobrooks to come out 1668 01:21:50,520 --> 01:21:54,400 Speaker 1: and say that it's significant. Second was Winsome Seer. She's 1669 01:21:54,439 --> 01:21:57,720 Speaker 1: the attorney general here in the state of Virginia. She 1670 01:21:58,080 --> 01:22:00,200 Speaker 1: was one of the head of the Real Election Action 1671 01:22:00,280 --> 01:22:04,479 Speaker 1: Committees for Donald Trump, and after Trump attacked Glenn Youngkin 1672 01:22:04,840 --> 01:22:07,439 Speaker 1: for allegedly having a quote Chinese name, which is an 1673 01:22:07,640 --> 01:22:11,200 Speaker 1: entirely different segment in of itself. She came out and 1674 01:22:11,240 --> 01:22:13,439 Speaker 1: was like, you know what, we need new leadership. Let's 1675 01:22:13,439 --> 01:22:16,559 Speaker 1: take a listen. You know, the voters have spoken and 1676 01:22:16,920 --> 01:22:20,920 Speaker 1: they have said that they want a different leader. And 1677 01:22:21,160 --> 01:22:25,320 Speaker 1: a true leader understands when they have become a liability. 1678 01:22:25,840 --> 01:22:29,360 Speaker 1: A true leader understands that it's time to step off 1679 01:22:29,400 --> 01:22:32,519 Speaker 1: the stage. And the voters have given us that very 1680 01:22:32,640 --> 01:22:35,840 Speaker 1: clear message. I apologize, she's actually lieutenant governor. I got 1681 01:22:35,840 --> 01:22:40,080 Speaker 1: her confused. However, still stands. And when some sears again 1682 01:22:40,320 --> 01:22:43,120 Speaker 1: was working for the re election committee of Donald Trump, 1683 01:22:43,360 --> 01:22:47,120 Speaker 1: she won successfully in the state of Virginia. I think 1684 01:22:47,160 --> 01:22:50,920 Speaker 1: that's very significant for her. And then finally Candice Owens 1685 01:22:51,360 --> 01:22:53,880 Speaker 1: of I don't even know necessarily how to describe her. 1686 01:22:54,560 --> 01:22:58,360 Speaker 1: I guess full scale. Trump has been now for quite 1687 01:22:58,360 --> 01:23:01,559 Speaker 1: a long time, a defender of effectively everything that he's 1688 01:23:01,600 --> 01:23:04,280 Speaker 1: ever done. She is now coming out to say some 1689 01:23:04,320 --> 01:23:06,880 Speaker 1: things about Trump. Let's take a lesson. I think after 1690 01:23:06,920 --> 01:23:09,200 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty election, and because of the shock of 1691 01:23:09,240 --> 01:23:12,280 Speaker 1: all the things that happened, and the answer is that 1692 01:23:12,320 --> 01:23:15,799 Speaker 1: we never really feel that we got this like sinking 1693 01:23:15,840 --> 01:23:19,599 Speaker 1: realization that we might be actually losing our country, I think, 1694 01:23:19,600 --> 01:23:22,760 Speaker 1: but it pushed him into an angry space where he 1695 01:23:22,800 --> 01:23:26,280 Speaker 1: doesn't trust anybody, where he doesn't listen to anybody, where 1696 01:23:26,320 --> 01:23:30,960 Speaker 1: he's he's almost likely to believe that everybody's trying to 1697 01:23:31,000 --> 01:23:34,240 Speaker 1: turn their back on him and stab him in the back. Interesting. 1698 01:23:34,439 --> 01:23:36,680 Speaker 1: She also, by the way, elaborated Crystal that he was 1699 01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:39,560 Speaker 1: personally mean to her, so that probably is part of 1700 01:23:39,600 --> 01:23:42,920 Speaker 1: the reason. But again we curated those because those are 1701 01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:47,280 Speaker 1: all people who were willing to back Trump on basically anything. 1702 01:23:47,320 --> 01:23:49,320 Speaker 1: I mean, Candice, Yeah, do you think it's fair to 1703 01:23:49,320 --> 01:23:52,080 Speaker 1: say because I haven't followed her trajectory that closely, but 1704 01:23:52,200 --> 01:23:55,240 Speaker 1: I mean she basically comes to prominence as a Trump supporter, 1705 01:23:55,400 --> 01:23:58,800 Speaker 1: right kind of, I mean provocateur, you know, almost like 1706 01:23:58,840 --> 01:24:01,920 Speaker 1: a mileoish type figure, much more cultural than Trump, but 1707 01:24:02,000 --> 01:24:03,920 Speaker 1: glombs on to Trump with the whole turning. But that's 1708 01:24:03,920 --> 01:24:07,920 Speaker 1: how she becomes like a celebrity because of Trump. But 1709 01:24:08,160 --> 01:24:10,640 Speaker 1: it's fair to say, Yeah, So the backstory with that, 1710 01:24:10,800 --> 01:24:12,400 Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys remember she did an 1711 01:24:12,439 --> 01:24:14,720 Speaker 1: interview with him. I think we covered it because she 1712 01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:18,200 Speaker 1: was asking him about the vaccine from like a vaccine 1713 01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:20,880 Speaker 1: skeptic perspective, and he was very clear of like, no, 1714 01:24:20,960 --> 01:24:23,280 Speaker 1: the vaccines were good and they were great. And then 1715 01:24:23,320 --> 01:24:26,120 Speaker 1: afterwards she tried to explain to her audience, like why 1716 01:24:26,200 --> 01:24:28,200 Speaker 1: his view was different than their view, and she was 1717 01:24:28,240 --> 01:24:30,320 Speaker 1: saying basically like, oh, I think he's too caught up 1718 01:24:30,360 --> 01:24:32,160 Speaker 1: in like what his aids or what the media is 1719 01:24:32,160 --> 01:24:34,639 Speaker 1: saying or whatever, basically trying to make excuses for him. 1720 01:24:35,000 --> 01:24:38,320 Speaker 1: And according to her, he was did not appreciate that. 1721 01:24:38,880 --> 01:24:40,840 Speaker 1: And then the next time he saw her, he was 1722 01:24:40,880 --> 01:24:43,240 Speaker 1: apparently rude to her. And so it wasn't anything else 1723 01:24:43,280 --> 01:24:45,840 Speaker 1: he did. It was that he was personally rude to 1724 01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:48,400 Speaker 1: Candice Owans. That caused her to rethink whether he was, 1725 01:24:48,520 --> 01:24:50,519 Speaker 1: you know, the great man she had thought. But to 1726 01:24:50,640 --> 01:24:53,320 Speaker 1: have all of that, you know, come out a lot 1727 01:24:53,360 --> 01:24:56,040 Speaker 1: of the election, that's significant. Yeah, a lot of people, 1728 01:24:56,240 --> 01:24:58,400 Speaker 1: you know, it's wins years. You know, she was a 1729 01:24:58,400 --> 01:25:02,760 Speaker 1: major Republican figure r and she lead like Black Americans 1730 01:25:02,760 --> 01:25:05,040 Speaker 1: for Trump or something like that at twenty twenty exactly. 1731 01:25:05,080 --> 01:25:07,120 Speaker 1: That's why I'm saying she was a major figure in 1732 01:25:07,160 --> 01:25:09,280 Speaker 1: the like and then goes on to win a race 1733 01:25:09,320 --> 01:25:11,920 Speaker 1: herself in a you know, basically a purple ish as 1734 01:25:12,040 --> 01:25:15,160 Speaker 1: blue state. Well, in Virginia, there's another piece there, which 1735 01:25:15,200 --> 01:25:18,560 Speaker 1: is DeSantis gets the most attention. Glenn Youngkin, who of 1736 01:25:18,600 --> 01:25:20,599 Speaker 1: course is now the governor of Virginia, is also thinking 1737 01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:23,240 Speaker 1: about running for president, and so she may be you know, 1738 01:25:23,479 --> 01:25:27,960 Speaker 1: switching her loyalties because obviously she's his lieutenant governor and 1739 01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:31,439 Speaker 1: so they have I'm sure a close relationship. At this point. 1740 01:25:31,800 --> 01:25:34,400 Speaker 1: He's been talking to donors and he's been flying around 1741 01:25:34,439 --> 01:25:37,799 Speaker 1: the country and sort of potentially laying the groundwork as well. 1742 01:25:38,560 --> 01:25:42,120 Speaker 1: And after Saga reference, before like Trump posted this bizarre 1743 01:25:42,160 --> 01:25:46,679 Speaker 1: thing about how Glenn Youngkin's name sounds Chinese and whatever. 1744 01:25:47,640 --> 01:25:49,840 Speaker 1: Young Kin got asked about it and he just said, like, oh, 1745 01:25:49,880 --> 01:25:51,960 Speaker 1: I didn't have time to look at that because I'm busy. 1746 01:25:52,320 --> 01:25:56,519 Speaker 1: So good for you. Yeah, I mean, I don't I 1747 01:25:56,520 --> 01:26:01,000 Speaker 1: think personally that Glenn Youngkin is probably over estimating his 1748 01:26:01,400 --> 01:26:06,120 Speaker 1: peel nationally. He kind of was, you know, right place, 1749 01:26:06,320 --> 01:26:09,280 Speaker 1: right time in Virginia, and frankly, if you're just like 1750 01:26:09,400 --> 01:26:13,280 Speaker 1: the most generic possible Republican, that actually is quite a benefit. 1751 01:26:13,520 --> 01:26:16,000 Speaker 1: You know, he did well in the suburban areas of Virginia. 1752 01:26:16,040 --> 01:26:18,200 Speaker 1: But to read that into like I have some sort 1753 01:26:18,200 --> 01:26:21,599 Speaker 1: of a national base of fervent grassroots support to carry 1754 01:26:21,640 --> 01:26:24,840 Speaker 1: me to the presidency. I think that's probably a bit 1755 01:26:24,840 --> 01:26:26,840 Speaker 1: more than what he's got. I like Glenn Youngkin, but 1756 01:26:26,880 --> 01:26:29,120 Speaker 1: there's no way in all you can win a GOP primary. 1757 01:26:29,160 --> 01:26:30,680 Speaker 1: And I think like that, Like I think if he 1758 01:26:30,760 --> 01:26:32,479 Speaker 1: was on the national ballot, yeah, I think he would win. 1759 01:26:32,520 --> 01:26:33,880 Speaker 1: But guess what I mean, you got to win the 1760 01:26:33,920 --> 01:26:35,960 Speaker 1: primary system. That's how it works. They literally had to 1761 01:26:36,080 --> 01:26:38,559 Speaker 1: rig the Virginia GOP primary just to elect the guy 1762 01:26:38,840 --> 01:26:41,160 Speaker 1: as the nominique. So how are you supposed to win 1763 01:26:41,240 --> 01:26:44,000 Speaker 1: if you can't win a Virginia GOP primary, which there's 1764 01:26:44,000 --> 01:26:46,000 Speaker 1: no way he would have been able to with all 1765 01:26:46,040 --> 01:26:48,040 Speaker 1: the trumpiness, Like, how are you going to win a 1766 01:26:48,200 --> 01:26:51,840 Speaker 1: national GOP primary? So well, it also the other thing 1767 01:26:51,840 --> 01:26:55,400 Speaker 1: to say about that is that even though DeSantis is 1768 01:26:55,800 --> 01:27:00,000 Speaker 1: clearly the alternative that has the greatest support, the largest possible, 1769 01:27:00,040 --> 01:27:03,840 Speaker 1: whitest possible path, the most like you know, fervent grossroots energy, 1770 01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:07,439 Speaker 1: like legitimate, genuine, there are a lot of other people 1771 01:27:07,479 --> 01:27:10,320 Speaker 1: out there who are thinking Larry Hogan and Glenn Youngkin 1772 01:27:10,439 --> 01:27:13,599 Speaker 1: and Mike Pompeo and Nicki Hale, Tim Scott even who 1773 01:27:13,640 --> 01:27:17,479 Speaker 1: are thinking about running, and so it's very likely to 1774 01:27:17,680 --> 01:27:20,080 Speaker 1: not just be if anyone decides to run against him, 1775 01:27:20,080 --> 01:27:22,000 Speaker 1: you're probably going to have four or five run against him. 1776 01:27:22,240 --> 01:27:25,519 Speaker 1: So then you're talking about you've got a committed Trump 1777 01:27:25,600 --> 01:27:28,680 Speaker 1: has his committed core that's not going anywhere. And then 1778 01:27:28,680 --> 01:27:32,919 Speaker 1: the people who are open to voting for another candidate 1779 01:27:33,200 --> 01:27:36,040 Speaker 1: potentially somewhat split among a number of candidates, which is 1780 01:27:36,080 --> 01:27:37,479 Speaker 1: another thing to keep in mind with all of this. 1781 01:27:37,680 --> 01:27:40,200 Speaker 1: We'll see. So to the De Santa's point, can DeSantis 1782 01:27:40,240 --> 01:27:42,720 Speaker 1: do it? Who knows? We got a conflicting data for 1783 01:27:42,760 --> 01:27:44,320 Speaker 1: all of you, which we love. Let's put this up 1784 01:27:44,360 --> 01:27:46,840 Speaker 1: there on the screen. This was a poll that was 1785 01:27:46,880 --> 01:27:50,639 Speaker 1: taken at the very end of October through November two. 1786 01:27:50,920 --> 01:27:53,880 Speaker 1: Trump was standing at sixty five percent, and this was 1787 01:27:53,920 --> 01:27:58,360 Speaker 1: amongst GOP primary voters. DeSantis at fifteen percent, Pence at seven, 1788 01:27:58,520 --> 01:28:02,360 Speaker 1: Cheney three, Cruise three, Hail one, Tim Scott at one. Okay, 1789 01:28:02,560 --> 01:28:05,040 Speaker 1: But then there was another poll came out after the election. 1790 01:28:05,120 --> 01:28:06,840 Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. This is 1791 01:28:06,880 --> 01:28:09,759 Speaker 1: from you goov for the twenty twenty four Republican primary. 1792 01:28:09,960 --> 01:28:13,479 Speaker 1: This has Dysantis at forty two percent and Trump at 1793 01:28:13,479 --> 01:28:16,360 Speaker 1: thirty five percent. But Crystal, let's give him the caveat 1794 01:28:16,400 --> 01:28:19,120 Speaker 1: on this particular one. This was a poll not just 1795 01:28:19,200 --> 01:28:22,479 Speaker 1: of likely Republican primary voters, which obviously is a thing 1796 01:28:22,479 --> 01:28:24,679 Speaker 1: that matters in a Republican primary, as a pole of 1797 01:28:24,720 --> 01:28:30,120 Speaker 1: all Republicans and Republican leaning independence. Trump was still winning 1798 01:28:30,200 --> 01:28:34,160 Speaker 1: the actual Republicans, whereas DeSantis had a significant edge among 1799 01:28:34,200 --> 01:28:38,479 Speaker 1: the Republican leaning independence. So listen that being said, I mean, 1800 01:28:38,640 --> 01:28:42,600 Speaker 1: the poll numbers have clearly shifted post Tuesday in a 1801 01:28:42,920 --> 01:28:46,559 Speaker 1: very significant fashion. The election result could not have been 1802 01:28:46,640 --> 01:28:49,360 Speaker 1: better for Ron DeSantis if he crafted them in a lab. 1803 01:28:49,400 --> 01:28:52,360 Speaker 1: That's right, you have tuesdays Florida, New York. But let's 1804 01:28:52,360 --> 01:28:55,200 Speaker 1: focus on Florida for a moment where Republicans cleaned up. 1805 01:28:55,240 --> 01:28:57,600 Speaker 1: I mean, the red wave did come to Florida, and 1806 01:28:57,640 --> 01:29:03,519 Speaker 1: Dsantis personally wins by freaking points. Right. Meanwhile, Trump candidate 1807 01:29:03,600 --> 01:29:07,080 Speaker 1: after Trump candidate after Trump candidate just going down in 1808 01:29:07,240 --> 01:29:11,639 Speaker 1: flames across the country. And you know, even jd Vance 1809 01:29:11,640 --> 01:29:15,400 Speaker 1: and Ohio manages to ecount a victory, underperforms across the state. 1810 01:29:15,520 --> 01:29:19,240 Speaker 1: So it was as direct a repudiation of the Trump 1811 01:29:19,320 --> 01:29:23,360 Speaker 1: direction of the party as you could possibly possibly get 1812 01:29:23,800 --> 01:29:26,960 Speaker 1: and you know, clearly some part of the GOP base 1813 01:29:27,160 --> 01:29:29,840 Speaker 1: has in fact taken notice of that. Yeah, look, it 1814 01:29:29,880 --> 01:29:33,200 Speaker 1: will be the fight of the century. I am incredibly 1815 01:29:33,760 --> 01:29:35,240 Speaker 1: Or maybe it won't be a fight at all. Maybe 1816 01:29:35,240 --> 01:29:37,840 Speaker 1: DeSantis just says I'm done. He's like, you know what, 1817 01:29:38,120 --> 01:29:40,320 Speaker 1: why bother? I'm the king of Florida. Yeah, won it 1818 01:29:40,360 --> 01:29:43,160 Speaker 1: by twenty percent. If Trump wants to embarrass himself on 1819 01:29:43,200 --> 01:29:45,679 Speaker 1: the national stage, be my guest. I'll be way here 1820 01:29:46,000 --> 01:29:48,120 Speaker 1: waiting in the wings. At the same time, Chris Christy, 1821 01:29:48,240 --> 01:29:50,639 Speaker 1: I think we can all say made a massive mistake 1822 01:29:50,680 --> 01:29:52,439 Speaker 1: by not running for president in twenty twelve. I think 1823 01:29:52,439 --> 01:29:55,000 Speaker 1: he honestly, I think he could have won. And now 1824 01:29:55,160 --> 01:29:56,800 Speaker 1: you know he's the one floating. Let's throw this next 1825 01:29:56,800 --> 01:29:59,599 Speaker 1: one on the screen. Here in the Washington Post, he's like, well, 1826 01:29:59,680 --> 01:30:02,400 Speaker 1: maybe will still run. Glenn young Gin is apparently talking 1827 01:30:02,400 --> 01:30:05,320 Speaker 1: to some people. Ron de Santis is, you know, exploring 1828 01:30:05,600 --> 01:30:08,600 Speaker 1: the idea, although I don't know how as seriously the 1829 01:30:08,640 --> 01:30:11,639 Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo's, many of the other many of the others 1830 01:30:11,800 --> 01:30:14,559 Speaker 1: Republican rivals. There's LUs a lot of donors. I think 1831 01:30:14,600 --> 01:30:18,280 Speaker 1: a fundamental problem is this, which is that most of 1832 01:30:18,320 --> 01:30:21,480 Speaker 1: the people, the GOP elites, you know, the media commentary, 1833 01:30:21,640 --> 01:30:26,240 Speaker 1: chattering class type figures. They were all against Trump originally. 1834 01:30:26,640 --> 01:30:28,160 Speaker 1: So for them to come out and say we need 1835 01:30:28,200 --> 01:30:30,200 Speaker 1: to move on from Trump, I don't think they have 1836 01:30:30,240 --> 01:30:33,920 Speaker 1: any credibility with the BASS. You need the figures that 1837 01:30:33,920 --> 01:30:36,880 Speaker 1: we showed you, and we need that times like two 1838 01:30:36,920 --> 01:30:40,360 Speaker 1: thousand for there to be a real, actual move on 1839 01:30:40,880 --> 01:30:44,400 Speaker 1: case to be heard by these GOP voters. Even I 1840 01:30:44,400 --> 01:30:47,000 Speaker 1: don't see that yet, even that I mean to think about, like, 1841 01:30:48,000 --> 01:30:50,320 Speaker 1: there have already been a lot of people who were 1842 01:30:50,360 --> 01:30:52,960 Speaker 1: true Trump believers at the beginning or who were in 1843 01:30:53,000 --> 01:30:55,880 Speaker 1: his administration, who have turned and who have written books 1844 01:30:55,960 --> 01:30:58,360 Speaker 1: and and they've been on the other direction. And it's 1845 01:30:58,479 --> 01:31:02,120 Speaker 1: just like, because the party has become defined by one question, 1846 01:31:02,160 --> 01:31:03,960 Speaker 1: which is where do you stand on the question of Trump. 1847 01:31:04,120 --> 01:31:06,040 Speaker 1: The minute you turn on him, it doesn't matter if 1848 01:31:06,040 --> 01:31:07,559 Speaker 1: you were there from the beginning, It doesn't matter if 1849 01:31:07,600 --> 01:31:10,599 Speaker 1: you believe whatever his policy agenda even is. At this point, 1850 01:31:10,880 --> 01:31:13,880 Speaker 1: it just matters that today you do not support him. 1851 01:31:13,960 --> 01:31:17,439 Speaker 1: And so that's why I continue to be skeptical. You know, 1852 01:31:17,520 --> 01:31:21,919 Speaker 1: Rupert Murdoch has clearly with all of his media outlets 1853 01:31:21,960 --> 01:31:24,800 Speaker 1: from Fox News to your Post Wall Street Journal, all 1854 01:31:25,040 --> 01:31:27,439 Speaker 1: united and trying to you know, put the test balloon 1855 01:31:27,520 --> 01:31:30,599 Speaker 1: out there and try to move everybody on. But again, 1856 01:31:30,640 --> 01:31:34,240 Speaker 1: like I look at Fox News, Fox News was in 1857 01:31:34,280 --> 01:31:37,519 Speaker 1: some of their hours very against stop the steal. Didn't 1858 01:31:37,560 --> 01:31:41,840 Speaker 1: matter to the Republican base, believe them, No, they still 1859 01:31:41,840 --> 01:31:45,480 Speaker 1: thought Arizona was stolen, and they, you know, were aggressively 1860 01:31:45,520 --> 01:31:48,760 Speaker 1: against the Fox News call specifically in Arizona. So the 1861 01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:50,760 Speaker 1: fact that you have like Brett Baer out there being like, 1862 01:31:50,760 --> 01:31:53,200 Speaker 1: you know, I kind of like this Ron Sandiskuy, I 1863 01:31:53,200 --> 01:31:56,679 Speaker 1: don't know how much weight that ultimately carries. So listen again, 1864 01:31:56,880 --> 01:31:59,880 Speaker 1: I think he is the weakest he has been. But 1865 01:32:00,120 --> 01:32:02,400 Speaker 1: I think if you are actually going to move the 1866 01:32:02,439 --> 01:32:07,519 Speaker 1: party on from Donald Trump, you have to have a concerted, consolidated, 1867 01:32:07,960 --> 01:32:11,120 Speaker 1: unified effort, and it has to be right now while 1868 01:32:11,160 --> 01:32:14,840 Speaker 1: he's down. Otherwise he's just gonna gather strength again. And 1869 01:32:14,880 --> 01:32:16,559 Speaker 1: I don't see that yet. And by the way, if 1870 01:32:16,560 --> 01:32:18,880 Speaker 1: that existed, we would absolutely know about it. I would 1871 01:32:18,920 --> 01:32:20,400 Speaker 1: have heard about it from you know, somebody so and 1872 01:32:20,439 --> 01:32:22,559 Speaker 1: so's moving to Florida to go head all this up. 1873 01:32:22,800 --> 01:32:25,200 Speaker 1: So unless there's some real secret campaign that I'm not 1874 01:32:25,280 --> 01:32:27,519 Speaker 1: aware of I don't see it again. And DeSantis is 1875 01:32:27,760 --> 01:32:31,880 Speaker 1: just thus far in response to Rondo sanctimonius, and he's 1876 01:32:32,000 --> 01:32:34,479 Speaker 1: just decided not to say anything, which in some ways 1877 01:32:34,520 --> 01:32:36,639 Speaker 1: is smart for him if you're playing the long game. 1878 01:32:36,720 --> 01:32:38,960 Speaker 1: But if you're actually going to dislodge Trump right now 1879 01:32:39,040 --> 01:32:41,439 Speaker 1: this cycle, I think you have to get in the game. 1880 01:32:41,520 --> 01:32:44,080 Speaker 1: That's absolutely correct. Okay, final one here for the show, 1881 01:32:44,120 --> 01:32:46,760 Speaker 1: and it's been a long show. Mike Pence speaking out 1882 01:32:46,840 --> 01:32:49,599 Speaker 1: against Trump for the very first time. Let's take a listen. 1883 01:32:50,200 --> 01:32:55,720 Speaker 1: Members were barricaded inside the House chamber and in the 1884 01:32:55,720 --> 01:32:58,519 Speaker 1: middle of it all you can see that the President 1885 01:32:58,520 --> 01:33:03,960 Speaker 1: has tweeted two twenty four pm. The President tweets Mike 1886 01:33:04,040 --> 01:33:07,479 Speaker 1: Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have 1887 01:33:07,479 --> 01:33:25,280 Speaker 1: been done. It angered me, but I turned to my daughter, 1888 01:33:25,320 --> 01:33:28,559 Speaker 1: who was standing nearby, and I said, it doesn't take 1889 01:33:28,600 --> 01:33:32,120 Speaker 1: courage to break the law, takes courage to uphold the law. 1890 01:33:32,840 --> 01:33:37,080 Speaker 1: I mean, the President's words were reckless. It was clear 1891 01:33:37,120 --> 01:33:39,400 Speaker 1: he decided to be part of the problem. The most 1892 01:33:39,400 --> 01:33:42,000 Speaker 1: interesting thing I found is he still finds it obviously 1893 01:33:42,080 --> 01:33:44,840 Speaker 1: very painful. Two things he's either painful or he's very 1894 01:33:44,880 --> 01:33:47,280 Speaker 1: calculating and trying to figure out exactly what he says. 1895 01:33:47,320 --> 01:33:49,240 Speaker 1: I'm curious what you made of it. For me, I'm 1896 01:33:49,280 --> 01:33:51,040 Speaker 1: just like, what's the point of this to sell a book? 1897 01:33:51,280 --> 01:33:54,840 Speaker 1: Like it's been two years dude, where we're like either 1898 01:33:54,880 --> 01:33:57,439 Speaker 1: say it then or don't. Like, what's the point now? 1899 01:33:57,479 --> 01:33:59,640 Speaker 1: You want to run against Trump? Good luck? Like you 1900 01:33:59,680 --> 01:34:03,040 Speaker 1: know it was Trump Pence, but Pence was always the asterisk. 1901 01:34:03,120 --> 01:34:06,160 Speaker 1: Yes for sure. Yeah. I mean when I've seen pens 1902 01:34:06,160 --> 01:34:09,280 Speaker 1: and polls, sometimes he gets like ten percent. Yeah, you know, 1903 01:34:09,360 --> 01:34:12,639 Speaker 1: Evangelicals like him. Evangelicals continue to like him. And again, 1904 01:34:12,720 --> 01:34:15,080 Speaker 1: if Pence is in the running, if you were talking 1905 01:34:15,080 --> 01:34:17,519 Speaker 1: about an open prop where you have Pence and you've 1906 01:34:17,520 --> 01:34:19,760 Speaker 1: got DeSantis, and you've got Young Kin, and you've got 1907 01:34:19,840 --> 01:34:22,720 Speaker 1: Larry Hogan and you got Mike Pompey and whatever, you know, 1908 01:34:22,880 --> 01:34:26,200 Speaker 1: Pence is going to eat into some percentage of the 1909 01:34:26,280 --> 01:34:29,519 Speaker 1: vote because he does have he has a lane. When 1910 01:34:29,560 --> 01:34:32,160 Speaker 1: the Row versus Wade was overturned, he right away jumped 1911 01:34:32,200 --> 01:34:34,320 Speaker 1: into I want the National Abortion Band. So if you 1912 01:34:34,520 --> 01:34:37,080 Speaker 1: are a voter in the Republican base where that is 1913 01:34:37,200 --> 01:34:39,360 Speaker 1: your issue and you want someone who was really all 1914 01:34:39,400 --> 01:34:42,000 Speaker 1: in with you, Mike Pence is going to be your choice. 1915 01:34:42,160 --> 01:34:45,240 Speaker 1: That's going to be a small percentage of the GOP base. 1916 01:34:45,320 --> 01:34:47,680 Speaker 1: But again, if you are, you know, if you're dividing 1917 01:34:47,760 --> 01:34:51,800 Speaker 1: the you know, potential non Trump vote within the Republican base, 1918 01:34:51,920 --> 01:34:54,120 Speaker 1: even if you're taking ten percent away from a potential 1919 01:34:54,160 --> 01:34:55,800 Speaker 1: und of Santis, it could make a difference. I think 1920 01:34:55,840 --> 01:35:00,439 Speaker 1: that's right, Crystal, what are you taking a look at? Well? 1921 01:35:00,680 --> 01:35:03,800 Speaker 1: In an election full of stunners and big upsets, one 1922 01:35:03,800 --> 01:35:06,200 Speaker 1: of the biggest came in the fiercely contested Senate race 1923 01:35:06,280 --> 01:35:09,280 Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania. The storyline almost reads like a movie. You've 1924 01:35:09,320 --> 01:35:12,000 Speaker 1: got the brash Steel Town mayor, a larger than life 1925 01:35:12,000 --> 01:35:15,519 Speaker 1: figure laid low by a devastating stroke. He literally won 1926 01:35:15,520 --> 01:35:18,920 Speaker 1: the Democratic primary against the entire Democratic establishment while laying 1927 01:35:18,960 --> 01:35:21,720 Speaker 1: in a hospital bed up. In the general election, he's 1928 01:35:21,800 --> 01:35:25,280 Speaker 1: up against a rich celebrity TV doctor brought to stardom 1929 01:35:25,320 --> 01:35:29,240 Speaker 1: by Oprah herself, and after a brutal debate performance by Fetterman, 1930 01:35:29,280 --> 01:35:31,720 Speaker 1: it looked like the smarmy celeb was poised to take 1931 01:35:31,760 --> 01:35:35,280 Speaker 1: advantage of Fetterman's health struggles. But then on election day, 1932 01:35:35,600 --> 01:35:38,320 Speaker 1: what do you know, not only did Fetterman win, it 1933 01:35:38,439 --> 01:35:41,639 Speaker 1: wasn't actually all that close. He bested doctor Oz by 1934 01:35:41,680 --> 01:35:45,559 Speaker 1: more than four points. He performed better than Trump, Biden, 1935 01:35:45,720 --> 01:35:48,880 Speaker 1: or outgoing Senator Pat Toby in the state, cut down 1936 01:35:49,000 --> 01:35:51,920 Speaker 1: on rural margins, and one back white working class voters 1937 01:35:51,920 --> 01:35:55,240 Speaker 1: who had been fleeing the party in droves. So how 1938 01:35:55,280 --> 01:35:58,600 Speaker 1: did this man, struggling to recover under the glare of 1939 01:35:58,640 --> 01:36:02,120 Speaker 1: a national spotlight actually pull this all off? Well, Fetterman's 1940 01:36:02,160 --> 01:36:05,559 Speaker 1: unexpected against the odds win is a perfect parable of 1941 01:36:05,600 --> 01:36:08,960 Speaker 1: what happened in this election, and specifically how the media 1942 01:36:09,080 --> 01:36:14,920 Speaker 1: misunderstands politics, voters, and elections. In almost every instance, their 1943 01:36:15,000 --> 01:36:17,439 Speaker 1: narrative of this race in particular, was not just off, 1944 01:36:17,680 --> 01:36:20,920 Speaker 1: but actually the polar opposite of reality, and it was 1945 01:36:21,040 --> 01:36:24,240 Speaker 1: asked backwards in ways that are consistent with their misreading 1946 01:36:24,320 --> 01:36:28,519 Speaker 1: of this election and many other elections besides. So let's 1947 01:36:28,520 --> 01:36:31,680 Speaker 1: dig in to three of the myths and what the 1948 01:36:31,760 --> 01:36:35,120 Speaker 1: actual reality is. So the first myth is that Fetterman 1949 01:36:35,360 --> 01:36:38,240 Speaker 1: is a bad candidate. Let's start off by talking about 1950 01:36:38,240 --> 01:36:41,080 Speaker 1: that debate. It was pretty rough, y'all. If you are 1951 01:36:41,120 --> 01:36:44,160 Speaker 1: a remotely empathetic person, it was painful to watch this 1952 01:36:44,360 --> 01:36:47,960 Speaker 1: burly figure struggled to get his words out when it mattered. 1953 01:36:48,040 --> 01:36:51,200 Speaker 1: Most media was quick to pronounce it a disaster and 1954 01:36:51,280 --> 01:36:54,960 Speaker 1: potentially campaign ending. I couldn't help wondering myself if the 1955 01:36:54,960 --> 01:36:57,479 Speaker 1: principal choice to do the debate had ended in political 1956 01:36:57,520 --> 01:37:00,120 Speaker 1: catastrophe for the big Man. But as I argued he, 1957 01:37:00,520 --> 01:37:02,680 Speaker 1: I wasn't so convinced that vulterers would read it the 1958 01:37:02,760 --> 01:37:06,000 Speaker 1: way that the pundit class did. Perhaps instead, they'd see 1959 01:37:06,040 --> 01:37:08,800 Speaker 1: Fetterman as kind of courageous for subjecting himself to such 1960 01:37:08,840 --> 01:37:13,439 Speaker 1: a humbling, humiliating experience, and for showing such vulnerability. Perhaps 1961 01:37:13,479 --> 01:37:16,320 Speaker 1: they'd see in Oz's performance the smarmy, dickishness that had 1962 01:37:16,320 --> 01:37:19,439 Speaker 1: held his approval ratings deep underwater. And it turned out, 1963 01:37:19,520 --> 01:37:22,360 Speaker 1: when all was said and done, I was correct, because 1964 01:37:22,400 --> 01:37:25,320 Speaker 1: not only did the debate seemingly not hurt Fetterman, there's 1965 01:37:25,400 --> 01:37:28,400 Speaker 1: actually an argument it helped him. In fact, according to 1966 01:37:28,400 --> 01:37:32,519 Speaker 1: favorability tracking of the race by Civics, Oz's favorability rating 1967 01:37:32,640 --> 01:37:37,720 Speaker 1: had been slowly improving up until that debate. Afterwards, it 1968 01:37:37,760 --> 01:37:41,240 Speaker 1: stopped Deadnet's tracks, leaving him upside down by a devastating 1969 01:37:41,360 --> 01:37:44,280 Speaker 1: twenty two points. Fetterman, on the other hand, saw his 1970 01:37:44,400 --> 01:37:49,479 Speaker 1: favorables actually gain slightly following that supposedly devastating debate performance, 1971 01:37:49,680 --> 01:37:53,840 Speaker 1: going from slightly underwater to actually neutral leading into election day. 1972 01:37:54,240 --> 01:37:56,920 Speaker 1: In the end, Oz's debate quipped that abortion should be 1973 01:37:56,920 --> 01:38:01,400 Speaker 1: between women doctors and local political leads might have ended 1974 01:38:01,479 --> 01:38:04,240 Speaker 1: up being the most consequential moment of the night. Now, 1975 01:38:04,320 --> 01:38:07,840 Speaker 1: the lesson here is that candidate quality does actually matter. 1976 01:38:08,160 --> 01:38:11,120 Speaker 1: The media just has no clue what qualities voters actually 1977 01:38:11,120 --> 01:38:15,240 Speaker 1: care about. In Pennsylvania, they cared more about Fetterman's authenticity 1978 01:38:15,400 --> 01:38:17,880 Speaker 1: than about his health struggles. They cared more about Oz 1979 01:38:17,920 --> 01:38:21,160 Speaker 1: being out of touch than his slick TV presentation skills. 1980 01:38:21,520 --> 01:38:23,840 Speaker 1: In the same way, while herschel Walker still not a 1981 01:38:23,880 --> 01:38:26,200 Speaker 1: great candidate because of his strained relationship with the truth, 1982 01:38:26,520 --> 01:38:29,240 Speaker 1: he is actually probably a better candidate than Oz, who 1983 01:38:29,280 --> 01:38:32,559 Speaker 1: is elitist, Blake Masters, who just comes across as extremely strange, 1984 01:38:32,560 --> 01:38:35,679 Speaker 1: and JD. Vance, who came across as wildly inauthentic. Mitch 1985 01:38:35,760 --> 01:38:38,760 Speaker 1: McConnell's lead polster apparently said that he had never seen 1986 01:38:38,800 --> 01:38:41,320 Speaker 1: a candidate do as poorly in focused group testing as 1987 01:38:41,400 --> 01:38:44,040 Speaker 1: Blake Masters. Vance, of course, was able to win, but 1988 01:38:44,200 --> 01:38:48,040 Speaker 1: underperformed in every county in the entire state. Turns out 1989 01:38:48,240 --> 01:38:52,799 Speaker 1: that fallible humanity Trump's a silver tongue celebrity or fancy 1990 01:38:52,800 --> 01:38:56,120 Speaker 1: credentials when it comes to the voters. The second myth 1991 01:38:56,400 --> 01:38:59,760 Speaker 1: that was destroyed by Fetterman's win is that progressive policies 1992 01:38:59,800 --> 01:39:03,720 Speaker 1: are bad politics. So before the stroke, and before he 1993 01:39:03,840 --> 01:39:07,479 Speaker 1: was up against Oz, the entire democratic establishment was aligned 1994 01:39:07,520 --> 01:39:12,080 Speaker 1: against Fetterman, backing Corporatis Golden Boy Connor Lamb. Lamb nearly 1995 01:39:12,080 --> 01:39:14,680 Speaker 1: swept the endorsement race, garnering the backing of state and 1996 01:39:14,760 --> 01:39:18,280 Speaker 1: national electates. The reason for this lopsided situation was simple. 1997 01:39:18,600 --> 01:39:21,559 Speaker 1: Lamb was a centrist and Fetterman was a Bernie lefty. 1998 01:39:21,680 --> 01:39:24,200 Speaker 1: The powers that be thought Lamb would be more electable 1999 01:39:24,439 --> 01:39:27,439 Speaker 1: and probably worried also about Fetterman being less easily controlled. 2000 01:39:27,680 --> 01:39:31,320 Speaker 1: We all know what happened next. Fetterman destroyed Lamb, romping 2001 01:39:31,439 --> 01:39:34,559 Speaker 1: with a thirty point margin over the anointed Golden Boy 2002 01:39:34,920 --> 01:39:38,439 Speaker 1: in the general election. Oz's team sees on Fetterman's progressive 2003 01:39:38,439 --> 01:39:41,639 Speaker 1: credentials as their primary line of attack. They bashed him 2004 01:39:41,640 --> 01:39:44,360 Speaker 1: and paid ads and on social media's being supposedly a 2005 01:39:44,400 --> 01:39:47,400 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders socialist, But none of the scared Fetterman off 2006 01:39:47,439 --> 01:39:50,880 Speaker 1: from embracing a left economic populism, and he arguably pulled 2007 01:39:50,880 --> 01:39:53,360 Speaker 1: it off better than any other Senate candidate in the 2008 01:39:53,520 --> 01:39:56,880 Speaker 1: entire country. Fetterman's profile was perfect, of course, the heavily 2009 01:39:56,920 --> 01:39:59,720 Speaker 1: tattooed former Steeltown mayor who looked the most himself in 2010 01:39:59,720 --> 01:40:01,560 Speaker 1: a pair or basketball shorts and a hoodie even in 2011 01:40:01,640 --> 01:40:04,360 Speaker 1: thirty degree weather. But more important than the every man 2012 01:40:04,520 --> 01:40:08,200 Speaker 1: vibes was the policy posture. He was unabashedly pro union 2013 01:40:08,360 --> 01:40:11,320 Speaker 1: labor went all in for him. He was also unabashedly 2014 01:40:11,400 --> 01:40:13,519 Speaker 1: pro weed, which in focus groups is actually one of 2015 01:40:13,560 --> 01:40:16,360 Speaker 1: the top policy issues that voters associated with him. He 2016 01:40:16,479 --> 01:40:19,040 Speaker 1: leaned into a message about corporate price gouging rather than 2017 01:40:19,120 --> 01:40:22,160 Speaker 1: just ceding economic issues to Doctor Oz and the Republicans, 2018 01:40:22,439 --> 01:40:25,200 Speaker 1: and his negative messaging on Oz was also pitch perfect 2019 01:40:25,240 --> 01:40:28,920 Speaker 1: economic populism. Part of why Oz's favorability ratings were so 2020 01:40:29,120 --> 01:40:32,600 Speaker 1: low was because a devastating early campaign by Fetterman to 2021 01:40:32,680 --> 01:40:35,800 Speaker 1: define him as a rich Hollywood New Jersey elitist who 2022 01:40:35,840 --> 01:40:38,160 Speaker 1: was more familiar with cru de Tae than with the Steelers' 2023 01:40:38,160 --> 01:40:41,080 Speaker 1: home game schedule, and who couldn't possibly relate to the 2024 01:40:41,080 --> 01:40:45,519 Speaker 1: struggles of normal Pennsylvanians. In the end, Fetterman's lefty economic 2025 01:40:45,560 --> 01:40:49,080 Speaker 1: populism was a boon and not a curse. In fact, 2026 01:40:49,320 --> 01:40:52,439 Speaker 1: if you dig into the numbers, Fetterman, the furthest left 2027 01:40:52,479 --> 01:40:56,840 Speaker 1: battleground senate candidate in the whole country, outperformed every other 2028 01:40:56,920 --> 01:40:59,720 Speaker 1: Democratic candidate with independence. Take a look at this. He 2029 01:40:59,760 --> 01:41:02,439 Speaker 1: did better with independence than Mark Kelly, someone who positions 2030 01:41:02,520 --> 01:41:04,799 Speaker 1: himself as a moderate and has a generally positive statewide 2031 01:41:04,800 --> 01:41:08,759 Speaker 1: profile in Arizona. Did way better with independence than Rafael Warnock, 2032 01:41:08,800 --> 01:41:10,960 Speaker 1: a man who talks and inspires for a living as 2033 01:41:11,000 --> 01:41:13,320 Speaker 1: a pastor. But I've got a metric that is even 2034 01:41:13,400 --> 01:41:15,560 Speaker 1: better than that. I am obsessed with these mass in 2035 01:41:15,560 --> 01:41:17,280 Speaker 1: the New York Times that show how the vote shifted 2036 01:41:17,280 --> 01:41:19,960 Speaker 1: between the twenty twenty presidential election and twenty twenty two. 2037 01:41:20,400 --> 01:41:22,439 Speaker 1: Most of them look a lot like this one in Georgia. 2038 01:41:22,600 --> 01:41:25,040 Speaker 1: Some areas shifted more to the Republicans, some shifted more 2039 01:41:25,080 --> 01:41:27,800 Speaker 1: to the Democrats. But here you can see Warnock out 2040 01:41:27,800 --> 01:41:30,759 Speaker 1: performing Biden in and around Atlanta, wile Walker made gains 2041 01:41:30,800 --> 01:41:33,320 Speaker 1: in the rural parts of the state. Now, take a 2042 01:41:33,320 --> 01:41:38,160 Speaker 1: look at the map of Pennsylvania. Fetterman literally gained in 2043 01:41:38,280 --> 01:41:42,200 Speaker 1: every single county in the entire state. And not only that, 2044 01:41:42,680 --> 01:41:46,760 Speaker 1: his strongest gains came in rural areas with the very 2045 01:41:46,920 --> 01:41:49,439 Speaker 1: white working class voters who've been fleeing the party since 2046 01:41:49,439 --> 01:41:53,559 Speaker 1: the Obama era and accelerated under Donald Trump. The very voters, 2047 01:41:53,720 --> 01:41:56,840 Speaker 1: by the way, who oz is socialism scare messaging was 2048 01:41:56,880 --> 01:42:00,679 Speaker 1: aimed directly at Fetterman's largest outperforms came in a place 2049 01:42:00,720 --> 01:42:04,000 Speaker 1: called Green County that's in southwestern PA. Now, Green County 2050 01:42:04,040 --> 01:42:07,639 Speaker 1: is an old steel town where Democrats used to absolutely dominate, 2051 01:42:07,840 --> 01:42:10,120 Speaker 1: but in the Trump era it went hard to the right. 2052 01:42:10,320 --> 01:42:12,479 Speaker 1: Trump won it easily with sixty eight percent of the 2053 01:42:12,520 --> 01:42:14,880 Speaker 1: vote in twenty sixteen, and in twenty twenty, the county 2054 01:42:14,880 --> 01:42:18,840 Speaker 1: shifted even further, handing him seventy one percent of the vote. Now, 2055 01:42:18,880 --> 01:42:22,639 Speaker 1: it's easy to assume that these realignments are just done, 2056 01:42:22,720 --> 01:42:25,960 Speaker 1: that they're set in stone, but actually Fetterman clawed back 2057 01:42:26,160 --> 01:42:29,639 Speaker 1: thirteen points of that margin. He still lost Green County, 2058 01:42:29,640 --> 01:42:32,120 Speaker 1: mind you, but there's a big difference between losing by 2059 01:42:32,200 --> 01:42:35,600 Speaker 1: thirty and losing by forty three, especially when you replicate 2060 01:42:35,640 --> 01:42:40,160 Speaker 1: that consistently across every rural county in the state. Turns 2061 01:42:40,160 --> 01:42:43,080 Speaker 1: out that Fetterman style left economic populism is a winner 2062 01:42:43,200 --> 01:42:45,680 Speaker 1: and the key to reversing the working class realignment of 2063 01:42:45,760 --> 01:42:48,080 Speaker 1: the Trump era. It is also key to creating a 2064 01:42:48,200 --> 01:42:51,240 Speaker 1: durable majority that can do more than eke out narrow wins. 2065 01:42:51,360 --> 01:42:54,280 Speaker 1: The final myth here is that Obama is a political 2066 01:42:54,360 --> 01:42:57,200 Speaker 1: master and Biden is a dud. The final stretch of 2067 01:42:57,200 --> 01:43:00,719 Speaker 1: the campaign, Obama came out barnstorming for CA candidates across 2068 01:43:00,720 --> 01:43:03,639 Speaker 1: the country to rapturous reviews from the media, and there 2069 01:43:03,680 --> 01:43:06,360 Speaker 1: is no doubt on the measures of pure rhetorical prowess 2070 01:43:06,360 --> 01:43:09,400 Speaker 1: and ability to boost his own brand, former President Obama 2071 01:43:09,479 --> 01:43:11,479 Speaker 1: is second to none. But as I pointed out at 2072 01:43:11,479 --> 01:43:14,719 Speaker 1: the time, this never translated into gains for his party, 2073 01:43:15,080 --> 01:43:19,080 Speaker 1: especially not during his time in office. Obama oversaw a 2074 01:43:19,160 --> 01:43:22,479 Speaker 1: bloodbath of more than a thousand state legislative seat losses. 2075 01:43:22,520 --> 01:43:24,879 Speaker 1: He lost governor's mansions, the House, the Senate, and ultimately 2076 01:43:24,880 --> 01:43:28,200 Speaker 1: handed the presidency off to Donald J. Trump. Biden's midterm 2077 01:43:28,240 --> 01:43:31,679 Speaker 1: record is now the polar opposite of Obama's. He held 2078 01:43:31,680 --> 01:43:34,600 Speaker 1: the Senate and might even pick up a seat in 2079 01:43:34,640 --> 01:43:37,160 Speaker 1: spite of coming in with a very narrow margin. For 2080 01:43:37,200 --> 01:43:40,000 Speaker 1: air Democrats still have a shot at holding the House, 2081 01:43:40,040 --> 01:43:42,559 Speaker 1: although that looks very unlikely now. But some of the 2082 01:43:42,560 --> 01:43:45,000 Speaker 1: most impressive victories for Democrats came at the state level, 2083 01:43:45,000 --> 01:43:47,760 Speaker 1: where they flipped state legislators, won back governor's mansions, made 2084 01:43:47,760 --> 01:43:50,800 Speaker 1: background among demographics like Latinos and white working class voters 2085 01:43:50,840 --> 01:43:53,880 Speaker 1: that had been increasingly moving to the right. Nowhere was 2086 01:43:53,920 --> 01:43:57,200 Speaker 1: Biden's midterm success more impressive than in the Midwest. Now 2087 01:43:57,240 --> 01:43:58,920 Speaker 1: I broke this down in detail for the lever, but 2088 01:43:58,960 --> 01:44:02,000 Speaker 1: the gist is this up and down ballot dumbsbeat polls 2089 01:44:02,000 --> 01:44:05,599 Speaker 1: and generated upsets across PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and even 2090 01:44:05,600 --> 01:44:07,439 Speaker 1: reclaim some of the ground they have lost in recent 2091 01:44:07,520 --> 01:44:09,640 Speaker 1: years in Ohio. And to get this back to the 2092 01:44:09,640 --> 01:44:12,879 Speaker 1: protagonist of our story here, John Fetterman. The party's unusual 2093 01:44:12,920 --> 01:44:15,120 Speaker 1: strength in the so called russ Belt is part of 2094 01:44:15,120 --> 01:44:18,320 Speaker 1: what helps sweep Fetterman into office. So to what do 2095 01:44:18,360 --> 01:44:21,559 Speaker 1: we attribute this success? Well, no accident. This region also 2096 01:44:21,720 --> 01:44:24,320 Speaker 1: is the one that has benefited most from Biden's baby 2097 01:44:24,360 --> 01:44:28,000 Speaker 1: steps towards economic patriotism, from nibbling an industrial policy to 2098 01:44:28,080 --> 01:44:32,240 Speaker 1: green manufacturing, pro union personnel, and also anti trust enforcement 2099 01:44:32,640 --> 01:44:35,799 Speaker 1: under Biden. Bottom line, some three hundred and fifty thousand 2100 01:44:35,840 --> 01:44:37,880 Speaker 1: jobs have come back to the US. That is a 2101 01:44:37,960 --> 01:44:41,360 Speaker 1: dramatic turnaround from the accelerated offshoring job losses of the 2102 01:44:41,400 --> 01:44:44,599 Speaker 1: Trump and the Obama administrations. Some of this is because 2103 01:44:44,600 --> 01:44:47,679 Speaker 1: of Biden's policy, some of it isn't, But even these 2104 01:44:47,720 --> 01:44:50,680 Speaker 1: incremental half measures are a damn site better than what 2105 01:44:50,760 --> 01:44:52,880 Speaker 1: has been a devastating stretch for this region of just 2106 01:44:52,880 --> 01:44:55,800 Speaker 1: getting kicked in the face routinely by every politician from 2107 01:44:55,800 --> 01:44:59,320 Speaker 1: every party. Turns out, when you do even the bare 2108 01:44:59,400 --> 01:45:01,920 Speaker 1: minimum for people, they tend to vote for you. The 2109 01:45:01,960 --> 01:45:04,439 Speaker 1: reason the media rates Obama as a god and Biden 2110 01:45:04,479 --> 01:45:07,000 Speaker 1: as a schmuck has everything to do with the first 2111 01:45:07,040 --> 01:45:09,920 Speaker 1: two media myths that I just described. They think the 2112 01:45:09,960 --> 01:45:13,080 Speaker 1: candidate qualities that voters care most about are rhetorical skill 2113 01:45:13,240 --> 01:45:16,880 Speaker 1: and charisma. What voters actually value in terms of personal 2114 01:45:16,960 --> 01:45:21,120 Speaker 1: qualities is humanity and authenticity. They also think that left 2115 01:45:21,160 --> 01:45:24,400 Speaker 1: economic policies are in albatross rather than a strength. How 2116 01:45:24,479 --> 01:45:26,799 Speaker 1: much handwringing and har haranging did we see about Biden's 2117 01:45:26,800 --> 01:45:29,599 Speaker 1: economic policies and how he'd spent too much money? Larry 2118 01:45:29,600 --> 01:45:32,000 Speaker 1: Summers and the other mainstream deficit hawks who gained a 2119 01:45:32,200 --> 01:45:35,600 Speaker 1: lot of purchase in mainstream media spaces. Turns out the 2120 01:45:35,800 --> 01:45:37,760 Speaker 1: little bit that Biden did for people was a huge 2121 01:45:37,760 --> 01:45:40,000 Speaker 1: factor in this election. Look no further than the student 2122 01:45:40,040 --> 01:45:43,400 Speaker 1: debt relief, which was much derided by mainstream pundits, but 2123 01:45:43,479 --> 01:45:46,559 Speaker 1: which contributed to a youth vote shift which arguably saved 2124 01:45:46,600 --> 01:45:51,120 Speaker 1: them's asses across the entire country. Obama's personal charisma meant 2125 01:45:51,120 --> 01:45:53,360 Speaker 1: that people admired and voted for him yes, even as 2126 01:45:53,360 --> 01:45:56,639 Speaker 1: they felt increasing content for the party as a whole. Biden, 2127 01:45:56,680 --> 01:45:59,599 Speaker 1: on the other hand, his solid policy steps have improved 2128 01:45:59,640 --> 01:46:01,439 Speaker 1: the party standing in a lot of the country, and 2129 01:46:01,479 --> 01:46:04,439 Speaker 1: particularly in the Midwestern region that has benefited most from them. 2130 01:46:04,840 --> 01:46:08,479 Speaker 1: This made the landscape much easier for John Fetterman, Gretchen Whitmer, 2131 01:46:08,520 --> 01:46:11,280 Speaker 1: or Tony Evers and a lot more. All Right, so 2132 01:46:11,280 --> 01:46:14,120 Speaker 1: a lot to learn from grapple with for all of us. 2133 01:46:14,160 --> 01:46:16,519 Speaker 1: But if the lessons from this midterm are that humanity 2134 01:46:16,520 --> 01:46:20,800 Speaker 1: beats showmanship and that policy substance actually maybe matters, well, 2135 01:46:20,800 --> 01:46:23,760 Speaker 1: then the results of the selection really did defy the 2136 01:46:23,800 --> 01:46:27,040 Speaker 1: modern odds and could chart a very different path for 2137 01:46:27,080 --> 01:46:29,840 Speaker 1: American politics. And Sager, one of the things I've been 2138 01:46:29,840 --> 01:46:33,080 Speaker 1: thinking about a lot is the difference. And if you 2139 01:46:33,080 --> 01:46:35,840 Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a 2140 01:46:35,880 --> 01:46:41,519 Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, Tiger, 2141 01:46:41,520 --> 01:46:43,519 Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Well, as many here know, 2142 01:46:43,720 --> 01:46:46,000 Speaker 1: I've been interested in bitcoin, and it's promised here for 2143 01:46:46,120 --> 01:46:48,519 Speaker 1: many years. When I first got into it, the promise 2144 01:46:48,560 --> 01:46:51,000 Speaker 1: of it really didn't have anything to do with making money. 2145 01:46:51,160 --> 01:46:54,880 Speaker 1: It was about censorship, free resistant money, about the verifiability 2146 01:46:54,880 --> 01:46:59,160 Speaker 1: of the blockchain, tales of circumventing government sanctions or hyperinflation. 2147 01:47:00,160 --> 01:47:02,719 Speaker 1: Along the way, though it reached escape velocity and price, 2148 01:47:03,040 --> 01:47:05,439 Speaker 1: and then it actually became simple. It was all just 2149 01:47:05,479 --> 01:47:08,439 Speaker 1: about getting rich. When people began to not just get rich, 2150 01:47:08,520 --> 01:47:12,200 Speaker 1: but get filthy rich, that's when institutional capital, Wall Street 2151 01:47:12,200 --> 01:47:14,000 Speaker 1: and the two bit players that were about to mention 2152 01:47:14,240 --> 01:47:17,040 Speaker 1: became the real people in the driver's seat behind crypto. 2153 01:47:17,320 --> 01:47:19,799 Speaker 1: It became instead of a promise of a better financial 2154 01:47:19,880 --> 01:47:23,839 Speaker 1: system to one that simply exists, circumvented existing financial regulation 2155 01:47:23,880 --> 01:47:27,160 Speaker 1: on Wall Street to see genuine wild West speculation on 2156 01:47:27,200 --> 01:47:29,920 Speaker 1: the Internet, a reversion to the past rather than a 2157 01:47:30,000 --> 01:47:32,360 Speaker 1: leap to the future. It isn't that vein that we 2158 01:47:32,439 --> 01:47:35,679 Speaker 1: have to discuss the stunning and precipitous fall of Sam 2159 01:47:35,720 --> 01:47:38,120 Speaker 1: Bankman Freed, who in the period of just the last 2160 01:47:38,120 --> 01:47:40,840 Speaker 1: two weeks saw his net worth fall from a near 2161 01:47:40,960 --> 01:47:45,320 Speaker 1: seventeen billion dollars to zero overnight. So to start with, 2162 01:47:45,600 --> 01:47:48,360 Speaker 1: who is Sam Bankman Freed? Well, I think it's fair 2163 01:47:48,400 --> 01:47:51,160 Speaker 1: to say he's a pretty weird dude. We've covered him 2164 01:47:51,160 --> 01:47:53,439 Speaker 1: before on the show as a major Democratic donor. He 2165 01:47:53,520 --> 01:47:56,320 Speaker 1: wanted to donate billions of dollars to Democratic Party, to 2166 01:47:56,360 --> 01:47:58,759 Speaker 1: other aligned causes for something that's known as the effective 2167 01:47:58,800 --> 01:48:02,160 Speaker 1: altruism movement. We will save how cringe that discussion is 2168 01:48:02,320 --> 01:48:06,200 Speaker 1: for another day, but of course the question arises, who 2169 01:48:06,280 --> 01:48:09,120 Speaker 1: is he? How did he make all that money? Bankman 2170 01:48:09,200 --> 01:48:12,680 Speaker 1: Freed was the CEO of the crypto trading platform FTX, 2171 01:48:12,760 --> 01:48:15,439 Speaker 1: which was based out of the Bahamas. The reason FTX 2172 01:48:15,479 --> 01:48:17,599 Speaker 1: was based in the Bahamas is because its main value 2173 01:48:17,600 --> 01:48:21,639 Speaker 1: proposition was illegal in the United States. FTX enables massive 2174 01:48:21,720 --> 01:48:25,639 Speaker 1: leverage loans and bets on cryptocurrency futures, circumventing the global 2175 01:48:25,640 --> 01:48:29,240 Speaker 1: banking system and serving effectively as a speculative, non US 2176 01:48:29,320 --> 01:48:33,479 Speaker 1: hub of crypto trading. Bankman Freed's core innovation was essentially 2177 01:48:33,479 --> 01:48:37,400 Speaker 1: building a platform enabling sophisticated types of financial transactions that 2178 01:48:37,520 --> 01:48:41,040 Speaker 1: Wall Street players have had for years, but for crypto, 2179 01:48:41,360 --> 01:48:44,160 Speaker 1: ahead of the boom in asset prices, enabling him to 2180 01:48:44,160 --> 01:48:47,639 Speaker 1: be poised perfectly for the last two years. The volume 2181 01:48:47,680 --> 01:48:50,639 Speaker 1: of trades on his platform ballooned over the last several years, 2182 01:48:50,760 --> 01:48:53,960 Speaker 1: surging his net worth into the tens of billions and 2183 01:48:54,000 --> 01:48:57,599 Speaker 1: turning him into some kind of effective altruists. But how 2184 01:48:57,640 --> 01:49:00,800 Speaker 1: does a multi billion dollar empire just crumble in just 2185 01:49:00,840 --> 01:49:04,320 Speaker 1: a week? So here's the story. November two, Coin Desk, 2186 01:49:04,360 --> 01:49:07,640 Speaker 1: a crypto neews platform, reported on a leaked document that 2187 01:49:07,720 --> 01:49:10,880 Speaker 1: one of Bankman Freed's hedge funds, which is separate, had 2188 01:49:10,920 --> 01:49:14,559 Speaker 1: a large number of crypto tookens belonging to FTX on 2189 01:49:14,600 --> 01:49:17,880 Speaker 1: its balance sheet. That matters because Bankman Freed's other firm, 2190 01:49:17,920 --> 01:49:21,240 Speaker 1: Alimeter Research, was supposed to be a separate business, but 2191 01:49:21,280 --> 01:49:23,880 Speaker 1: in reality it showed that one of Bankman Free's businesses 2192 01:49:24,040 --> 01:49:26,960 Speaker 1: rested nearly entirely on a coin that was invented by 2193 01:49:27,000 --> 01:49:31,760 Speaker 1: the FTX Exchange, not by any real dollars or other assets. 2194 01:49:32,160 --> 01:49:35,240 Speaker 1: This set up the perfect perfect opportunity for a company 2195 01:49:35,240 --> 01:49:39,000 Speaker 1: called Binance which is an alternative large crypto trading platform 2196 01:49:39,200 --> 01:49:42,280 Speaker 1: who struck. They announced, based on the news, they would 2197 01:49:42,320 --> 01:49:45,599 Speaker 1: then sell many of the tokens they had held issued 2198 01:49:45,640 --> 01:49:50,000 Speaker 1: by FTX, which effectively triggered a collapse in the price. Now, 2199 01:49:50,760 --> 01:49:53,840 Speaker 1: the fall of the price of that token triggered a 2200 01:49:53,920 --> 01:49:58,280 Speaker 1: separate run traders on the actual FTX platform scrambling to 2201 01:49:58,360 --> 01:50:03,200 Speaker 1: withdraw their actual dollar and other assets. That run caused 2202 01:50:03,200 --> 01:50:06,240 Speaker 1: some nearly six billion in assets to be withdrawn from 2203 01:50:06,320 --> 01:50:09,080 Speaker 1: FTX in the span of just seventy two hours, which 2204 01:50:09,120 --> 01:50:12,320 Speaker 1: of course triggered a cash crunch. As an FTX did 2205 01:50:12,360 --> 01:50:16,080 Speaker 1: not have enough cash to meet its outstanding obligations. At 2206 01:50:16,080 --> 01:50:19,280 Speaker 1: this point, SBF was screwed. He straight up didn't have 2207 01:50:19,320 --> 01:50:21,439 Speaker 1: the money and he needed someone to bail him out. 2208 01:50:21,600 --> 01:50:24,080 Speaker 1: So he went to Binance and he begged for a bailout. 2209 01:50:24,280 --> 01:50:26,800 Speaker 1: On November eighth, Binance announced that it would reach a 2210 01:50:26,880 --> 01:50:29,760 Speaker 1: deal to bail out and buy FTX, but caveated that 2211 01:50:29,760 --> 01:50:32,000 Speaker 1: they had the right to pull the deal at any 2212 01:50:32,000 --> 01:50:35,240 Speaker 1: time of their own choosing. And then the very next day, 2213 01:50:35,520 --> 01:50:37,599 Speaker 1: when we're all dealing with the election results, there's even 2214 01:50:37,600 --> 01:50:41,320 Speaker 1: more stunning news. Binance says, actually they're pulling out of 2215 01:50:41,320 --> 01:50:44,520 Speaker 1: the deal as a result of quote corporate due diligence, 2216 01:50:44,760 --> 01:50:48,320 Speaker 1: and hinted that there were quote reports of mishandled funds. 2217 01:50:48,840 --> 01:50:51,960 Speaker 1: That is what set the spark with an apologetic thread 2218 01:50:52,000 --> 01:50:54,759 Speaker 1: from SBF on Twitter where he said, quote I fucked 2219 01:50:54,840 --> 01:50:56,920 Speaker 1: up and should have done better, with a pledge that 2220 01:50:56,960 --> 01:50:59,639 Speaker 1: he would be trying to raise some nearly nine billion 2221 01:50:59,720 --> 01:51:02,760 Speaker 1: dollars to cover the remaining assets within FDx so that 2222 01:51:02,760 --> 01:51:05,880 Speaker 1: his customers could withdraw their funds. But of course, with 2223 01:51:06,000 --> 01:51:09,080 Speaker 1: all the news and despite previous major Silicon Valley backing, 2224 01:51:09,400 --> 01:51:11,920 Speaker 1: nobody was willing to bail him out this time, which 2225 01:51:12,040 --> 01:51:15,240 Speaker 1: ended in an official Chapter eleven bankruptcy. But now with 2226 01:51:15,320 --> 01:51:18,760 Speaker 1: the bankruptcy filing, there's even more questions what happened to 2227 01:51:18,800 --> 01:51:22,280 Speaker 1: all the money. Reuter's reports that SBF had transferred some 2228 01:51:22,400 --> 01:51:27,360 Speaker 1: nearly ten billion dollars of customer funds from FTX to 2229 01:51:27,439 --> 01:51:30,519 Speaker 1: his sister hedge fund, Alometer Research, and that a large 2230 01:51:30,560 --> 01:51:34,559 Speaker 1: portion of that has since disappeared, anywhere between one to 2231 01:51:34,600 --> 01:51:38,280 Speaker 1: two billion in cash. SBF's defense of the ten billion 2232 01:51:38,280 --> 01:51:42,720 Speaker 1: in transfer is he had confusing internal labeling on his 2233 01:51:42,880 --> 01:51:47,160 Speaker 1: cash and quote misreaddit when asked about the missing money, 2234 01:51:47,320 --> 01:51:52,320 Speaker 1: he simply replied three question marks. Furthermore, ftx's own legal 2235 01:51:52,360 --> 01:51:55,880 Speaker 1: team finds on the back end, SBF had implemented a 2236 01:51:55,960 --> 01:51:59,960 Speaker 1: quote backdoor into the bookkeeping system, which allowed him to 2237 01:52:00,080 --> 01:52:04,840 Speaker 1: execute commands altering the company's financial records without alerting other people, 2238 01:52:04,960 --> 01:52:08,200 Speaker 1: including external auditors. That is how he was able to 2239 01:52:08,360 --> 01:52:12,439 Speaker 1: internally transfer billions upon billions to his hedge fund for 2240 01:52:12,520 --> 01:52:16,759 Speaker 1: then speculation without anybody noticing. As for what next, who knows. 2241 01:52:17,439 --> 01:52:20,840 Speaker 1: Coin Telegraph reports at SBF is quote under supervision by 2242 01:52:20,840 --> 01:52:23,679 Speaker 1: Behamian authorities and that he is exploring going to Dubai, 2243 01:52:23,760 --> 01:52:26,280 Speaker 1: where there is no extradition treaty with the United States. 2244 01:52:26,520 --> 01:52:29,240 Speaker 1: The crypto industry has lost nearly a trillion dollars as 2245 01:52:29,240 --> 01:52:31,920 Speaker 1: a result of XTF collapse, and trust in the industry 2246 01:52:32,000 --> 01:52:34,679 Speaker 1: isn't an all time low, comparable nearly to the Lehman 2247 01:52:34,720 --> 01:52:38,080 Speaker 1: Brothers collapse in the American financial system. I will end 2248 01:52:38,080 --> 01:52:40,679 Speaker 1: this monologue as I began it. When I first got 2249 01:52:40,680 --> 01:52:43,679 Speaker 1: interested in bitcoin, it was the promise of something other 2250 01:52:43,880 --> 01:52:46,439 Speaker 1: than getting rich. Those that I met in the industry 2251 01:52:46,560 --> 01:52:49,040 Speaker 1: actually had a real passion for that. But just like 2252 01:52:49,040 --> 01:52:52,960 Speaker 1: with our original financial system, once speculation became involved. It 2253 01:52:53,040 --> 01:52:55,879 Speaker 1: became just like the Wall Street banks, but with looser regulation. 2254 01:52:56,320 --> 01:52:59,080 Speaker 1: I'm honestly not sure what the answer is. I know this, 2255 01:52:59,360 --> 01:53:01,599 Speaker 1: my friends who work in the industry have a lot 2256 01:53:01,600 --> 01:53:04,080 Speaker 1: of trust to gain back from the general public, who 2257 01:53:04,160 --> 01:53:07,599 Speaker 1: rightly are looking at this and they say this sounds crazy. 2258 01:53:07,920 --> 01:53:10,040 Speaker 1: That's where we're at right now, Chrystal. I mean, it's 2259 01:53:10,120 --> 01:53:12,120 Speaker 1: you know, we've talked about bitcoin, and if you want 2260 01:53:12,120 --> 01:53:15,200 Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Cyber's monologue, become a premium 2261 01:53:15,280 --> 01:53:21,080 Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, guys, we 2262 01:53:21,160 --> 01:53:23,439 Speaker 1: had a very long show for everybody today, so forgive 2263 01:53:23,479 --> 01:53:26,080 Speaker 1: us premiums. I am already sure it's going to be late, 2264 01:53:26,560 --> 01:53:30,080 Speaker 1: no worries. Tomorrow, we are going to have that live stream. Also, 2265 01:53:30,160 --> 01:53:32,439 Speaker 1: don't forget we're coming to New York, We're coming to Boston. 2266 01:53:32,479 --> 01:53:34,840 Speaker 1: Go ahead and buy tickets down the description. Let's just 2267 01:53:34,880 --> 01:53:36,360 Speaker 1: go ahead and get to it. We'll see you tomorrow 2268 01:53:36,439 --> 01:53:51,840 Speaker 1: at eight pm Standard time for our live stream.