1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. This week, we're gonna 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: get some economic data, particularly some inflation data. We have 8 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: CPI tomorrow, pp I Wednesday, and we also have a 9 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve which is adamant in fighting inflation. So a 10 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: lot of moving parts here that are gonna play into, uh, 11 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: what we may hear from the Federal Reserve next week. 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:39,599 Speaker 1: And when we talk Federal Reserve and interest rates and policy, 13 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,639 Speaker 1: we need to go to Danielle di Martino, Booth CEO 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: and chief strategist for Quill Intelligence, former advisor at the 15 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle, thanks so much for 16 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: joining us here. Again, a lot of inflation data we're 17 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: gonna get today. What do you think the Federal Reserve 18 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: is really going to be focusing on? Well, I think 19 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: that they're gonna go ahead and fade what they see 20 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: in in the headline CPI. I think that that has 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: been so well broadcast across so many different channels that 22 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: they're gonna be They're gonna really have their eye more 23 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: on the stickiness of the core and whether that is 24 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:18,559 Speaker 1: as as if as it's expected ticks up to six. 25 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: Um My buddy, Ivy's Elman, who has been a longtime 26 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: veteran of the housing industry. She sees housing shelter both 27 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: O E R and rent. She sees that peaking at 28 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 1: seven in the fall year over year. Now, that's that 29 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: is that's a good hundred and fifty basis point above 30 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: what it was. Yeah, Ivy's the best. I used to 31 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: work with Ivy back in today on the housing biz. 32 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: Um So if you're the Federal Reserve, I mean, alright, 33 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: seventy five basis points as we get to next week. 34 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: But I guess that's that that's baked in. Is it 35 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: more just kind of the body language we get about 36 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,639 Speaker 1: whether we pause and see if this stuff actually works 37 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: or whether we just keep moving higher. Well, I think 38 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: what we're going to be focused on are the things 39 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: that are less in the Fed's control, and that would 40 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: be what our food price is going to do. I 41 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: was seeing a report on on the terminal last night 42 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: that really really hot, blazing temperatures out west. That's affecting 43 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: how much we're paying for produce um. I think a 44 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: lot of it is going to depend on on how 45 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: sticky rents are. Rents have begun to peek out. But 46 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: even in a shorter LAG world, which I argue and 47 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: I think that's one of the things that people should 48 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: be paying close attention to. The effect of LAG has 49 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: been compressed monetary policies working faster. But that being said, 50 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: if Annie May figures, it figures it takes five quarters 51 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: to see shelter inflation move its way through the c 52 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 1: p I, we still got high housing inflation for several 53 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 1: more quarters. So I've got a listener writing in Danielle 54 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: and asks is if we get a five percent print, 55 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: is that high enough to get the Fed to continue 56 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: hikeing into a weakening environment? Or or what what cp 57 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: I print matters in terms of the actual numbers? Well, 58 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: and look, until the job is done, I mean, how 59 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: much more explicit can J Powell be? I don't think. 60 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: I don't think four is going to be acceptable. So 61 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 1: until we're until we're back headed back down towards two percent, 62 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: which I guess we all interpret as three is headed 63 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: towards two. Right. Yeah, well, I mean that's that's kind 64 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: of what the European Cential Bank alluded to its communications 65 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: last last week, is that three might be the new two. 66 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,679 Speaker 1: And but but in order for us to get there, 67 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: most of the work that's been done shows that you 68 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: have to have an appreciably bigger bump up in your 69 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: unemployment rate. And I think that that's where the focus is, 70 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: and it's it's intriguing that, um that only Layle Brainerd 71 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: so far vice chair has said, you know, there are 72 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: risks if we begin to slow the economy too much. 73 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: You had to pay pretty close attention to what her 74 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: comments were last week, but that's what she said. Otherwise, 75 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: everybody's just a bunch of former dubs who are now 76 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 1: bowls in China shops. So, Danielle, I mean, aside from 77 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: the fact that we've already had two quarters of negative 78 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: g d P, what is your UH recession outlook and 79 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:17,919 Speaker 1: maybe what are some of the parameters that kind of 80 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: kick you into recession and maybe keep us out of it, 81 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: or maybe make it deep versus not deep? How do 82 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: you think about that right now? I think about the 83 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: recession in terms of it being long. And what people 84 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: don't appreciate is that the National Bureau of Research Economic 85 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: Economic Research, they they time recessions based on the level 86 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,679 Speaker 1: of GDP. SMP Global came out on Friday. They reduced 87 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: their third quarter GDP as of it two point six 88 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: per cent. I'm getting wonky here, but that means that 89 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: it's not sufficient to offset the negative point eight percent 90 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: they're anticipating we see for the final print for the 91 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: second quarter. What that means is on a level, the 92 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: n b e R could come and surprise investors who 93 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: are like, woo, it's a happy you know, we're seeing 94 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: positive growth. The n b e R could come out 95 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 1: and say, you know what, we're still in recession and 96 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: surprise people because it gauged off of the level. That's 97 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: what the arbiters, that's how that's how they do it. 98 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: I want to finally ask you about political pressure. How 99 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: much do you think, Danielle, the FED is going to 100 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: feel um if we start to get unemployment at four 101 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 1: and a half five five and a half percent, or 102 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: I should say, when we start to get unemployment around 103 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: five percent, and how will that affect this independent body. Well, 104 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: I think that the winds will shift violently, um from 105 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: we're concerned about inflation to oh my gosh, our constituents 106 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: are losing their jobs. So it won't take the Beltway 107 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: crowds very long to go from eight point A to 108 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: point B. We saw news out of Goldman that they're 109 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,799 Speaker 1: uh that they're pursuing laughs just this morning. That being said, 110 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: this J. Powell sounds like a different person. And until 111 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: something breaks in credit, and I don't mean just bankruptcies rising, 112 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: our defaults increasing, but until something fundamental breaks that threatened 113 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 1: systemic risk. I see this J. Powell was pushing forward. 114 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: All right. Danielle, thank you so much for joining us 115 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: once again. We always appreciate getting your perspective. Danielle d 116 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: Martino Booth. She's the CEO and chief strategists at Quill Intelligence, 117 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: and she's a former advisor to the Federal Reserve Bank 118 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 1: of Dallas. And she brings up that Goldman Sacks news. 119 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: Goldman Sacks prepares for layoffs as soon as next week. 120 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: That's according to the New York Times. Let's check up 121 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 1: with our next guest, David dts And managing Principal and 122 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: senior portfolio strategist at Peacock Private Wealth Management based in Summit, 123 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: New Jersey. David, thanks so much for joining us here. 124 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: We're gonna get a bunch of inflation data UH this 125 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: week with CPI and p p I, and we know 126 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: our Federal Reserve is paying attention to that. How are 127 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: you going to parse some of this data we're gonna 128 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: get this week? So absolutely, I think that's the number 129 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: one issue is where is inflation uh in America today? 130 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: And of course last month we saw that headline inflation 131 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 1: was flat. Uh, it still gave us an eight point 132 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: one percent year over year, which is far too high, 133 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: worse than like forty years, and the feder over Service 134 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: is reacting. But remember investors are always looking forward, and 135 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: what we're thinking we're gonna get come tuesday is actual 136 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: actually a dip about ten basis points in the therems 137 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,679 Speaker 1: of headline inflation as we're gonna see softer gasoline prices 138 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: at the pump, some softening and rent with the strong dollar, 139 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: um export prices are coming down to and so that 140 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: will help the narrative that perhaps for past peak inflation 141 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: and things are going to start easy. So what does 142 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: that mean for stocks? Does that mean the S and 143 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: p UM continues this rally that we've seen the past 144 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: few sessions. Yeah, it's a great question, very hard to 145 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: make a short term call. I think the the skeptic 146 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 1: would say, hey, you know, we've been buying. You know, 147 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 1: we're at four point one percent since last Tuesday. We've 148 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: been buying on anticipation that this is gonna be a 149 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: better print. And there could be what we say, you know, 150 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: buying the rumor and then selling the news, and people 151 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: take some profits if it just comes in as as 152 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: I mentioned. Having said that, of course it could be 153 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: a little bit better softer inflation, or that could give 154 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: investors greater confidence to continue to push prices higher. That 155 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprising, because you know, we're down eight on 156 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: the SMP five since the high point in January. We 157 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: still should seek positive corporate earnings for Q three up 158 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: nearly four percent. We've got strong employment, the consumers continues 159 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:38,079 Speaker 1: to spend very resilient UM, so the reasons to be upbeat. 160 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: David Cratty Gupta brought up something at the top of 161 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: the program which I thought was really interesting. She said 162 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: that the gains that Ukraine is making in the war 163 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: against Russia, are UM allowing the dollar to kind of 164 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 1: let some of the pressure out, and the Bloomberg Dollar 165 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: index is down against UM. You know, the euro is gaining, 166 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: the Pound is gaining. You think a positive turnaround for 167 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: Ukraine in this war, a positive outlook would be good 168 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:09,599 Speaker 1: for stocks as well. Yeah, absolutely certainly. You know, the 169 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: concern of cources with any kind of you just don't 170 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: know where that geopolitical situation is going UM. And the 171 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: recent good news, well we already see now European natural 172 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: gas prices are UM now at a one month low UM, 173 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 1: the euros starting to gain a little bit of momentum, 174 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,079 Speaker 1: the dollars down three percent from where it was last week. 175 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: That certainly can take the pressure off global inflation. That 176 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: certainly can give investors confidence. Is obviously too early to 177 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: say we're out of the woods. I don't think Putin's 178 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: gonna go down without a fight, but the news is 179 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: good and I think that could provide a tail win 180 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: for stocks going forward. Here I'll just say that I 181 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 1: do see t t F natural gas down almost eight 182 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 1: percent just today and UK natural gas down six and 183 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: a half percent just today, So one month low, and 184 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: when we're going lower here on the exact crisis exactly. 185 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: And hey, how about the bond yields, David, I mean, 186 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: you know, if I want to put my money in 187 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: a ten year bond, I'm getting three point three percent. 188 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: That's nothing to sneeze at. Him. That's actually a kind 189 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 1: of a return. Well, it is, and it isn't. Certainly 190 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: it's a lot better return than at the start of 191 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 1: the year. Has been one of the worst years on 192 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: UH in history, for for for bond investors. But you know, 193 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is with the headline inflation 194 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: last month was eight point one percent year over year, 195 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: three point three percent is kind of something to steeze at. 196 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: And of course, and of course when you look at history, 197 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: three point three percent is not that great. You know, 198 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:45,319 Speaker 1: you've got the the earnings yield on the SMP about seventeen, 199 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 1: which is going to give you what five and a 200 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 1: half percent, So I'll take five and a a half percent 201 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: over three point three percent. I think most retireason I 202 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: worked with they can't live on three point three percent 203 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: for the next ten years. Yeah, but you're happy to 204 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: get any kind of return, especially relative to other bonds. 205 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 1: Um but do you think we're going to see the 206 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: tenure yield go up or was three and a half 207 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: percent the peak? It's harder to call the bond market 208 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: it is the stock market, you know. It all really 209 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: depends on inflation. If inflation does get out of control, 210 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: if the geopolitical developments worse in um, you're gonna see 211 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: bond investors running for the hills. Bond investors hate inflation if, 212 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: on the other hand, recession concerns come back. Although the 213 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: equity market hates recession, bond investors love it because that 214 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: brings down the inflation. So we're gonna have to see. 215 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: At this point, I still think it's a good deal 216 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 1: for investors to be in stock drilled to to three 217 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: point on the tenure. I hate inflation too, Yeah, who doesn't. 218 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: I hate it more than you do. Well, you say 219 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: you're fine with a two percent target? Yeah, I like 220 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: zero percents. Not realistic. David Deed's managing principle and senior 221 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: portfolio strategist at Peacock Private Wealth Management. He got his 222 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: undergraded Dartmouth way back in the day, and I'm dating 223 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: Mr d uh and his law degree from Universe Chicago. 224 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: That's not bad. That's a nice combo for sure. Combo. Now, 225 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: folks in our listeners, I am holding a load of 226 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 1: cash in my hand because that's what I do as 227 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: all street guy, that's what we always does. We came up, 228 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 1: we had wads of cash. But I am increasingly the 229 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: exception to that rule because everything's going digital now on 230 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: the payment side, and I have to bed over the pandemic. 231 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: I'm doing a lot more stuff of financially uh digitally, 232 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: you know. So it says nobody wanted to touch your 233 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 1: dirty cash. Exactly take exactly, yeah, exactly. Jeff Sloan he's 234 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 1: at the point of all this. He's the CEO of 235 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: Global Payments. Global Payments is in New York Stock Exchange 236 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: traded company GPN is a symbol you type into your 237 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Professional terminal like a market cap at thirty eight 238 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: billion dollars. I mean, these guys aren't small. They're based 239 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 1: down in Atlanta, Georgia employees. Jeff, thanks so much for 240 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: being on our Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio. Talk to us 241 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: about your business, Global Payments, over the last two and 242 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: a half years of this pandemic. How is your business evolved? Well, 243 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: I think you touched on with what you said with 244 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: your dirty cash example. The first trend coming out of 245 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: the pandemic is really increased digitization. So for many decades 246 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: here in the United States and globally, people have moved 247 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 1: away from cash and check toward digital, but the pandemic 248 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: really brought that forward by three to five years. Great 249 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 1: example this is in our business. We do a lot 250 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: of real estate payments. So it used to be you'd 251 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 1: write out of check to your landlord for the rent. 252 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: You'd walk down to the office or mail it. If 253 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: something was broken, you'd fill out of a form. In 254 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: the pandemic, no one want to touch a pen, a pencil, 255 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: a check. So what you do now is you go 256 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: on your phone, you click pay with your thumb your face, 257 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: You pay the account you know from your bank account, 258 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: and if something is broken and we want to pull 259 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: up your car, you type in the valet thing and 260 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,439 Speaker 1: they put your car around the front. No one touches 261 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 1: paper anymore. It's a great example of what we've seen. 262 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: So um I've been since I've moved back to the US, 263 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: missing the ability that I had in Germany to do 264 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: that because it's much easier they're used to making payments 265 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 1: UM digitally. Uh, how do you work with this market? 266 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: And I know you're active in those markets as well 267 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 1: in terms of avoiding fraud, because if you use Venmo 268 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 1: or zell or crypto UM, it's impossible to reverse those 269 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: those payments. That's a great question. So um Uh listen, 270 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: we're a technology company. We have six thousand people doing 271 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: nothing but building software all day and actually most of 272 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: the major banks in North America and Western Europe use 273 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: our fraud prevention screens. So we're constantly scanning UM these 274 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: transactions to make sure they're good. We're looking for nominalies 275 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: and kicking them out. But beyond that, if you step back, 276 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: every country is really different. The US is primarily a 277 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: credit and debit card, but increasingly kind of credit in 278 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: the current environment, and they're very active fraud protections, both 279 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: as a regulatory and also as a legal matter for 280 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 1: use of those cards. So not only are we scanning 281 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: for those anomalies, but the banking regulators, legislators, they're doing 282 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: all the same thing. And I would say by and large, 283 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: consumers are protected UM in those markets from fraud. The 284 00:14:55,520 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: easiest uh, the ways to transfer money are also fairly expensive. 285 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: I mean PayPal, for example, UM takes a pretty big cut. 286 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: How do you keep costs down? So the United States, interestingly, 287 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve came out last week with a movement 288 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: towards what's called FED now or real time payments account 289 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: to account transfers, which we saw in Europe as you 290 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: described a number of years ago. UM. I think if 291 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: you have a Federal Reserve UM and a regulatory sponsored 292 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: intervention in the markets where you can provide for faster, 293 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: more reliable payments in a way that's auditable, UM, that 294 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: avoids the type of fraud that you're referencing, that's nothing 295 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: but good news for merchants, for consumers, and really for 296 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: global payments. Were in the business of moving money digitally. 297 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: If you want your money faster now, I actually have 298 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: to borrow to provide that to you. I'm not gonna 299 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: have to do that. In the Brave New World, we 300 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: hear a lot more are a lot, most recently about 301 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: buy now, pay later. What does that mean to you? 302 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: By now pay later, and how does that impact your business? 303 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: So by now pay later, or I like to call 304 00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: as layaway moway, I'm obviously revealing my age right by saying, 305 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: because I'm obviously not a gen z Er, by saying, 306 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: back in the day, you go to service merchandise, you 307 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: said I want this bicycle, and you put a hundred 308 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: dollars a month or whatever until you get it. But 309 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: of course this is you get the thing first. So 310 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: it's more like a credit card, really, isn't it. In's debt. Yeah, 311 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 1: that's right, that's exactly right. And what I think people 312 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: are worried about here is what we call debt stacking, 313 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: which is taking out multiple bmp L applications and no 314 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: one knows that you have a big pile of debt 315 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: open here doing something else. But to answer your question, um, 316 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: really it's not any different than installment lending. So what 317 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 1: we're doing is doing it on a very responsible basis, 318 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: meaning we don't balance sheet that's not our decision. That's 319 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: a decision that traditional financial institutions make from an underwriting 320 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: UH and know your customer point of view, and we 321 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: do it through the regulated banking system. So we're working 322 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: with a number of financial institutions that West, for example 323 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom, as well as Barclays, as well 324 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: as number of retailers where it's an adjunct to your 325 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: bank hard lending. So those banks know you because you 326 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: have an account there, They know your credit profile, they 327 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: know that you have outstanding Um. I would say the 328 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 1: bnp O guys have done a really good job in 329 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: technology and bringing innovation to the point of sales. You 330 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 1: go on a website, it's pinging you. Do you want 331 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 1: to buy this? I'll give you five percent off, picking 332 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: you now while you're shopping, paying you when you're checking out, 333 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: packing you after we brought that kind of technology traditional 334 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: regulated institutions, which is much safer for everybody. How what 335 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: does the competition look like? Because, as Paul said, you're 336 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: a huge business, but a lot of businesses and payments 337 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: are huge. This is kind of one of the most 338 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: popular Wall Street darlings, I guess really globally. So who 339 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: are you going up against? Well, really varies by market, 340 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: and our business has always been highly competitive. I don't 341 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: expect that to change the word technology company. We simply 342 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 1: build better software and more markets and do a better 343 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: job selling it. That's really, build better software than Klarna, 344 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 1: than Adin, than a firm, etcetera. Right, that's exactly right. 345 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: How do you how do you get an edge? On 346 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 1: those guys. Sure. So I think one of the things 347 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 1: that we're really good at is listening to the market, 348 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: listening what we're hearing from our customers and where they're going. 349 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: Let me give you a great example, so pre Pandemic, 350 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: we do a lot of quick service restaurant um point 351 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: of sale devices as well as online. So pre Pandemic 352 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: we did twenty million remote orders in the United States 353 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: and nine team, which means you buy your burger king 354 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 1: Hamburger on your phone, pay with your face, it gets 355 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 1: delivered through Uber Eats. Last year we did those same 356 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: things true in teledocts. So what we've been able to 357 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,719 Speaker 1: do is really identify trends like remote delivery and bridging 358 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 1: the physical as well as the virtual world, and we 359 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: compeet by way of vertical markets restaurants, quick service restaurants, retail, healthcare, 360 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 1: real estate. So while there are plenty of people competing 361 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: in things like e com, the answer to question is 362 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: we're very focused on competing in those vertical markets by 363 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: way of GDP that we think are growing more quickly 364 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: than the average and are also lesser penetrated. Financial news 365 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: websites they do, yes, exactly right, Bloomberg dot com. How 366 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: do you look at crypto Because Matt loves crypto, I 367 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: could care less. Well, I think it's fascinating. I don't 368 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: think it's fair to say I love it. I think 369 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: he's fascinating, the earliest, one of the earliest guys in media. 370 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: You know, I bought bitcoin back when it was six 371 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: dollars and promptly lost my passwords. So I understand the 372 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: benefits and the drawbacks to it, um. But the blockchain 373 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: technology is really the biggest benefit. Right do you do 374 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: you use it? Are you going to? We do? So? 375 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 1: For example, if you buy crypto and your PayPal wallet 376 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: today and you're training it with somebody else, or you're 377 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: using it, that's actually our technology. UM, that's allowing you 378 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 1: to buy it, settle it, that kind of thing, and 379 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: we do that globally. That's not just a US comments. 380 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 1: So I think crypto is a series of use cases. 381 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: Let me tell you first where it doesn't work. So 382 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: there's almost no acceptance at the point of sale, a 383 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: physical or virtual point of sale. And the reason for 384 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: that is there's so much volatility and stable coins in 385 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 1: blockchain maybe the solution, but for right now, there's so 386 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: much volatility and ethereum or bitcoin and like it's very 387 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: hard to procure at the point of Sale'll think about 388 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: a grocery store. How on earth those guys can take? 389 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: But I would say in the case of use cases, um, 390 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: having loyalty points paid in crypto, having payroll if you like, 391 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 1: paid in crypto, those are good examples of use cases 392 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: where things work. All right, Jeff, thanks so much for 393 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 1: joining us. Jeff Sloan, he's the CEO of Global Payments, 394 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 1: joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. We're gonna 395 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: have more coming up. Got green on the screen where 396 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 1: you're off our highs, but again still a nice start 397 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 1: to the week. Let's see what what's going out there 398 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 1: with pretty Goop to cheese on markets correspond and she 399 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Pretty 400 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Yeah, well, I wanted to 401 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: take a quick minute and it she's my chart of 402 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 1: the day actually because I think it's really important bringing 403 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: it back full circle. Um, but it is European. Matt, 404 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 1: close your ears. Um, this is significant because we're looking 405 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: at a chart nineteen fifty two g hashtag BTV nineteen 406 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 1: fifty two. When you guys get to your terminal um 407 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 1: at your desks, what's important to note, and I'm going 408 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: to describe it. You're looking at German and French power 409 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: prices over the last two years. Basically they go straight 410 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: up into come back down just a little bit, and 411 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: then this massive parabolic move into well right now, really 412 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 1: they've come back down from their August peak just to touch, 413 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: but they are still at historically high levels. This is 414 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:06,679 Speaker 1: something we've talked about a lot. When it comes to 415 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: the European energy prices. They've come down tremendously, tremendously, but 416 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 1: historically they are still extremely high. And here's why this 417 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,239 Speaker 1: is important. This has everything to do with what you're 418 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: seeing gas prices. And ordinarily for Americans we would think 419 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: that well, electricity has nothing to do with natural gas. 420 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 1: That doesn't really make sense. But in Europe, the grid 421 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: work so that all the renewable energy sources um the 422 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: gas prices or gas up driven power prices go from 423 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 1: the highest price right and gas power plants have the 424 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: highest price, so they drive the market and it all 425 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: feeds into this one grid, which is um why gas 426 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 1: prices are affecting power prices. Um, what's significant here is 427 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 1: the ripple effects over the weekend. I read these stories 428 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: that now to deal with this, the Eiffel Tower is 429 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: going to close their lights off earlier. Yeah, so the 430 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: glittering spectacle will not be that long. Yeah. London Underground 431 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: has been dealing with some really severe delays. Then they 432 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: don't have any uh, they go on strike every couple 433 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 1: weeks anyway, So true, but severe delays based on power crunches. Specifically, 434 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: basically there's no power to run the actual train, which 435 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 1: which is which is pretty extreme. Um. So those were 436 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: the two that I thought were really interesting examples of 437 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: people of country that you say that are actively dealing 438 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: with this. And there you're seeing that also in I 439 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: mean in local, in a local way across Germany. So 440 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: you'll have towns like Hanover that previously you know, we're 441 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: doing just half of their lights at night. Now they're 442 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 1: just no more lights at Berlin forever has not turned 443 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: on the street lights at night, just because I don't 444 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 1: know that it's super lefty town and they want to 445 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: save electricity and they're also mega mega poor. That's the 446 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: thing about Berlin. The mayor once said, we're sexy but 447 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: poor you know that that was their tagline. But yeah, 448 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,640 Speaker 1: you see it all all over the place, like, uh, 449 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: you know, the town swimming pool will only be operating 450 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: six hours a day instead of because they want to 451 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: save on power. Yeah, cratty Bloomer Markets carresponding, thank you 452 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: so much. We appreciate it. Speaking Jess Mett and she 453 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 1: covers equities for Bloomberg News, And Jess, you've got a 454 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: story out talking about corporate America. Is corporate America seeing 455 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: peak inflation? And what do they look at to kind 456 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: of determine that? What do you got? So the big 457 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: thing is looking at and this is data I pulled 458 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Intelligence was talking to you, right, so taking 459 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 1: a look at there's some positive signs that have been emerging. 460 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: So it's taking to a Jillian Wolf over there as 461 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 1: well as Windy Song. And so they were saying that 462 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: in the second quarter, the S and P five hundreds 463 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 1: free cash flow fell again for the second straight quarter 464 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: on a ruling four quarter basis, but when it came 465 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: to capital deployment, it's actually surging, and that suggests to 466 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: them that companies don't expect that rising costs are actually 467 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: going to continue to last. And also they're taking a 468 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 1: look obviously, let this inflation distress and how that's been 469 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: picking away at the different cash flows, but they don't 470 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: see that necessarily being a detrimental thing because they're still 471 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: seeing balance sheet cash still above those pre pandemic levels. 472 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: So that could be a positive sign obviously ahead of 473 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: the CPI data that we're going to get tomorrow. But 474 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: ahead of that, we did just get a few minutes 475 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,360 Speaker 1: ago an update from the New York's Fed consumer expectations 476 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: when it comes to inflation projections, so on the longer term, rizon, 477 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: medium term, in short term. Again, those expectations came down 478 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: for the month of August, continuing those declines that we 479 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: did see in July. So that could be an optimistic 480 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 1: sign ahead of that CPI data that we're going to 481 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 1: get tomorrow. All Right, what are we expecting tomorrow and 482 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 1: what does a beat or a miss mean for the 483 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve? Well, that's the crucial thing, right because even 484 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: a slower inflation print seems unlikely that it's going to 485 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: end up swaying the Federal Reserve. And that was something 486 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,360 Speaker 1: that was echoed with They love the pc reportedly, they 487 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: prefer the PCs and tomorrow's CPI, Right, So when it 488 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 1: comes to and especially looking at the core numbers that's 489 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: going to strip out volatile components. If we're looking at 490 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 1: food and energy, it's projected to be six point one 491 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: percent on a year over year basis, but then remain 492 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: unchanged at three tents of a percent when you're looking 493 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 1: month over month. So I feel like that is really 494 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: the core number when you're looking at those month over 495 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: month differences. But then if obviously, if you're going to 496 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: look more on an annual basis, it's projected to rise 497 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: about eight percent in August from your earlier versus about 498 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,120 Speaker 1: eight and a half percent in July. But again, looking 499 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: at those month over month numbers are usually the key 500 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 1: when I'm talking to strategists. Interesting, I mean, again, we've 501 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: got a nice move in the market here past couple 502 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: of days. You just wonder kind of where are we here? 503 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: Maybe this market just really needs to get a sense 504 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 1: of where this Federal Reserve is not necessary going to 505 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: go with their next their meeting wednesday, but maybe some 506 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 1: of the language, the body language about do we wait 507 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: to see how this stuff plays out or do we 508 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 1: just continue to signal that we're in a rising, great 509 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: move and that big meeting obviously happening next week. It 510 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: begins on Tuesday, but we'll get the decision on Wednesday, 511 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 1: and obviously here from Chairman Pale about a half hour 512 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: after that. But this week is a blackout period for 513 00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 1: the Feds. So last week was the last sort of 514 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: phase of parade of Fed speakers that we were going 515 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 1: to hear, and clearly a lot of them still sticking 516 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 1: with that hawk is stance. But what was interesting about 517 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: last week it didn't necessarily when you were hearing from them, 518 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: they didn't change their hawk is tone. But we did 519 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: see a bit obviously of a rebound with the US 520 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:16,160 Speaker 1: stock snapping three consecutive weeks of declines. But looking more ahead, 521 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: it's interesting because more technically speaking, we're kind of where 522 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 1: we were if you looked a month ago when we 523 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,880 Speaker 1: were going to get those New York Fed inflation expectations 524 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: right ahead of the CPI numbers, And now we've looking 525 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 1: at the SMP five hunted a cross back above the 526 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: fifty day moving average, the one hundred day moving average, 527 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 1: but still below the two day moving average, which is 528 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: about two. So that's really key right now, good stuff. 529 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Jess Menten, equities reporter for a Bloomberg 530 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 1: News Texas, A and M. How did they do this weekend? 531 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,679 Speaker 1: You know, pretty pretty good, as good as one could expect. 532 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: But I am an but a lot of people were 533 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: obviously focusing on what was happening at the University of Texas, 534 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 1: which they did not beat Alabama. They came close, but 535 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: I feel like that was kind of a big key, 536 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 1: the fact that they did not win, So that was 537 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 1: hopeful good stuff. We have Salt in our Bloomberg Interactive 538 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 1: Broker studio because it's Monday and we always want to 539 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: kick off the week getting a sense of what's going 540 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 1: on on Wall Street, and Cheese are expert there. I 541 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: gotta start shanally with the Goldman News about cutting some people. 542 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,439 Speaker 1: I guess it's just part of their you know, as 543 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 1: Matt was just saying, kind of their annual culling of people. 544 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 1: But it seems like it was just fifteen minutes ago 545 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 1: when every story coming out of Wall Street was how 546 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: much more do we have to pay these kids to 547 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 1: take a job on Wall Street? And now we're turning 548 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 1: around and laying them off. Only the worst ones though, right, yeah, 549 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: and this year went by fast because that conversation ended 550 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,239 Speaker 1: last year right when you turned into this year. It's 551 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 1: a much tough for economic environment. And you have to say, 552 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 1: I have to say it, you know, if you're there, 553 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: if you're making it to five per cent of head 554 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,119 Speaker 1: count reductions, that's what's typical. If it's less than that, 555 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 1: which is what we expect, then it's not so bad 556 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,360 Speaker 1: for a year that is facing a significant downturn. Now 557 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: it's still painful because these banks have hired massively last 558 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 1: year in the year before, and they have not seen 559 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: these types of cuts for two years. So this is 560 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,160 Speaker 1: a return of a strategic review that hasn't really happened 561 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 1: in the last couple of years. That will be fought 562 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 1: again now. Alright, So I thought it was interesting when 563 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,919 Speaker 1: I heard you're gonna go to Assault. That is the 564 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: Mooches conference, right, yes, yes, it is right. It is 565 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: in New York, it's at the Javit Center, but they 566 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: also have some around the world, in the Middle East, 567 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 1: in Europe, and you know, I think you guys were 568 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,160 Speaker 1: talking about it, the idea that they sold of Skybridge 569 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: to x where I was going to go. So okay, 570 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 1: Anthony Scaramucci, who was who worked for President Trump for 571 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 1: like eleven days, speaking of stars like a cup of coffee. Right, Um, 572 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: he has a pretty successful conference business. What else? What 573 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 1: else does salt do? And why does Sam Bankman freed Um, 574 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 1: the child billionaire who owns f t X, why does 575 00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 1: he want a piece of the movie. He's a millennial 576 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 1: billion there, but you know, obvious, how old are you? 577 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 1: Total genius? And he did really well? Um at Jane Street. 578 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 1: From your point, what does Skybridge do? They they've traditionally 579 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: invested in a lot of hedge funds, a hedge fund funds, 580 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 1: business alternatives, but they've also recently pivoted very strongly into crypto. 581 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,720 Speaker 1: So about eight hundred million dollars of their two point 582 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 1: five billion dollars at the end of June were in 583 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: digital assets or digital asset linked companies, including f t X. 584 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: Are you are you going to this car? I am. 585 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: I'm interviewing Wedgewaters Greg Jensen. I'm interviewing Greg Jensen in 586 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 1: the three pm hour today. You can find it on 587 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 1: the term at all. Yeah, Greg Jensen, He's from Bridgewater 588 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: Bridge awesome, world's largest hedge fund. And so you do 589 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: still have a lot of traditional investors there. And when 590 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 1: I talked last week to Anthony Scaramucci about this FTX investment, 591 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:49,960 Speaker 1: what he told me was two things. He's going to 592 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 1: be sixty in four in January. The mooch is going 593 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 1: to be sixty. He looks good. And he told me 594 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 1: that he doesn't want to be Shakespearean figure looming over 595 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 1: the firm. He wants to think about the next ten 596 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: years of Skybridge, the next generation, which includes his deputy 597 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: John Darcy, as well as you know, folks like f 598 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 1: t X and Sam bankmen Freed that can help Skybridge 599 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: get more into crypto and conversely, this is important f 600 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: t X get more intraded into traditional finance. So those 601 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 1: worlds are emerging and they're certainly gonna merge its salts today. 602 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: Greg Jensen's only I know. I know he's a kid 603 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 1: snappers seventy four one to Dartmouth good stuff. Loves poker apparently. 604 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 1: I guess he likes to take risk and read six 605 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 1: hundred pages a weekend. From what I USPF is a 606 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 1: good poker player too. You know, I'm going to ask 607 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 1: him about that today. I want to get in on 608 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,960 Speaker 1: this game, y'all. Want to join. Oh, there's a poker 609 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: game of the players. I think we should have it 610 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 1: here at ower. Yeah. Also, yeah, I can get you 611 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: into a really really cool poker game because I know 612 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 1: our friend Mindy Grossman. She has a poker game that's 613 00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 1: like a it's a women's center. I don't know if 614 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: it's women women who play poker these days. It's a 615 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 1: huge thing in finance at it's a big deal. I 616 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 1: think Caroline Hyde plays as well. She does, she indeed does. 617 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: We well got it all together here, all right, very 618 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 1: cool looking forward to that. What else is going on? 619 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: When I when I saw you coming into work this morning, 620 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: you were listening to an ethereum podcast, she was listening 621 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: to crypto podcast. Now, but you have you made some 622 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 1: interesting points about it. I mean, um, I was like, man, crypto, 623 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: what a joke? And you were like, no, there's real 624 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 1: returns here. There are. And remember, over the last ten years, 625 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 1: they're having significant returns, even in the crypto winter that 626 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: you see now. But this is a moment of truth 627 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 1: for theoryum. Remember if bitcoin was the original, Ethereum is 628 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 1: supposed to be the newer age, eco friendly younger brother's 629 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: about to get really eco friendly right, because they're gonna 630 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 1: reduce the energy needed um to verify transactions by they're 631 00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: going to go to proof of steak from proof of work. 632 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 1: Now as people put up more, more of their own 633 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: ethereum to steak, because that's how they are validating new nodes. 634 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,480 Speaker 1: As people put up more money to the steak. Is 635 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: this an inflationary or deflationary force for ethereum which does 636 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 1: not act as bitcoin does? Where bitcoin has a fixed supply, 637 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 1: Ethereum is not fixed. So by staking more assets, are 638 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 1: you then able to control kind of that inflationary force 639 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 1: that's embedded within ethereum. I think it's so fun that 640 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 1: this kind of new age of technologists are really thinking 641 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 1: about this in macro terms, and it's a collision of 642 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 1: the worlds. Whether it works out or not, On Thursday, 643 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 1: we will see the ethereums block chains much anticipated software upgrade, 644 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 1: the so called Merge, is expected to take place around 645 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 1: all Thursday, September fift Sarah Mussouli from Bloomberg she sent 646 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: some stuff out that saved my bacon. Now be could 647 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: have reduces the crypto show. I mean, this explains everything, 648 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: So thank you, Sarah, thanks for listening. To the Bloomberg 649 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with 650 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. 651 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. Put 652 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 1: on Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at p T Sweeney. 653 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at 654 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio