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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. This be Joey P Joe Pisapia, and this

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Speaker 1: is VP NFL. And before you know it, the regular

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Speaker 1: season will be upon us and we will be cashing

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Speaker 1: some tickets. But there's still preseason football to talk about.

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Speaker 1: It hasn't quite begun yet, probably just days away from

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Speaker 1: actually recording. This is when we're going to actually have

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Speaker 1: some preseason football. Does it matter sort of kind of

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Speaker 1: only to the players where it really matters to but

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Speaker 1: Terrell Furman Junior and I are going to try to

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Speaker 1: help you understand a little bit more about the theory

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Speaker 1: behind preseason NFL betting, some ways to make some money,

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Speaker 1: and some approaches you can take. Before we get going today,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to subscribe to the Betting Pros channel. Drop

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Speaker 1: your comments below. We love hearing from all of you,

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Speaker 1: and we're trying to get to one hundred thousand subscribers

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Speaker 1: this year. We can do it with your help, So

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Speaker 1: let's get on that right now. Hit that subscribe button, Terrell.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk in the opening here a little bit

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Speaker 1: about preseason laying out the structure here a little bit

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Speaker 1: in terms of how we're approaching it. Historical trends. I

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Speaker 1: know there's some things that we've you know, taken for

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Speaker 1: granted over the years, like the Baltimore Ravens never dropping

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Speaker 1: any preseason games, do home advantages exist against the spread,

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Speaker 1: the situations like that. So when you're looking at historical

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Speaker 1: data and trying to get kind of an overall picture

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Speaker 1: and some trends, what stands out to you the most

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Speaker 1: in terms of the meta when it comes to preseason

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Speaker 1: NFL betting.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's really two that I'm really really locked in on.

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Speaker 2: I'm constantly looking, like trying to figure out, Hey it

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Speaker 2: is unders are thing? First half? Unders?

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Speaker 3: Is it?

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Speaker 2: Overs? Is it? I'm looking for all this stuff. The

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Speaker 2: first thing is the coaches trends are just money man, Like,

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Speaker 2: come on, jar Harball went through like, what was it,

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Speaker 2: a four year stretch not losing a preseason game like

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Speaker 2: that is ridiculous. And that's that's coaching. That's saying, hey,

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Speaker 2: we're taking this series. We're going out here trying to

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Speaker 2: win the game. It doesn't matter if it's preseason. And

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Speaker 2: it also coincides with the fact that John Harball teams

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Speaker 2: typically have fast starts in the regular season, Like, that's

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Speaker 2: just how he coaches up his team. So harpball, for

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Speaker 2: sure is one he's at like some seventy five percent

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Speaker 2: in the preseason. Now you got Mike Tomlin, you know

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Speaker 2: that's my guy. I'm gonna tell you about Mike t

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Speaker 2: every single show, Joe, every shot.

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Speaker 1: I love Mike Tomlin. I just think that the uh,

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Speaker 1: what they got going there is just in a bad direction. Hey, look, man,

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Speaker 1: I love Bill Belichick. I said the same thing when

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Speaker 1: Belichick was at the end of his days. Sometimes that

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Speaker 1: stuff happens. But to your point, Nah, I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's even longer than you realize. Seven twenty four game

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Speaker 1: win streak that existed there for the Ravens. That's pretty amazing.

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Speaker 1: Twenty four games. I mean, that's absurd. But you're also

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Speaker 1: hearing some different trends too, because you're hearing like Zach

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Speaker 1: Taylor talking about, Hey, we're gonna play Joe Burrow Moore

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Speaker 1: in preseason this year because we felt like we get

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Speaker 1: off to slow starts last couple of years. We're trying

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Speaker 1: to avoid that. I think those little nuggets matter too.

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Speaker 1: When you hear coaches talk about those sort of things,

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Speaker 1: especially with the starting quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, and maybe it's something where you're like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: maybe they can get out to a hot start first

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Speaker 2: half in the preseason, like you're gonna get a couple

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Speaker 2: of good drives. They want to showcase the offense. They

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Speaker 2: probably want to get a lot a lot of things going.

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Speaker 2: I think it was last year that Aaron Rodgers played

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Speaker 2: the preseason the first time in his career, Like, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it didn't work out for him, so will hopefully Joe

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Speaker 2: Burrow doesn't get anything like that. But yeah, I'm really

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Speaker 2: deep into the coaches. Mike Tomlin at some sixty percent

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Speaker 2: in the preseason and then also fading those coaches like

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Speaker 2: Kevin McConnell's like two and six in the preseason or

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Speaker 2: something like that, He's near twenty five percent. Dan Quinn

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Speaker 2: in multiple different locations hasn't been good in the preseason,

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Speaker 2: So that shows me that dan Quinn's teams just aren't

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Speaker 2: taking this serious. So he's a coach that I look

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Speaker 2: the fade as well. And then another trend that I'm

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Speaker 2: looking into Joe that I really really like and it

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Speaker 2: worked for me last year and I think the year

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Speaker 2: before that too, is the joint practices, and those teams

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Speaker 2: that have joint practices that week and then played the

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Speaker 2: preseason game, that game typically starts to go under because

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Speaker 2: they're putting all the effort and all the good football

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Speaker 2: and all the reps and all the physical into practices.

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Speaker 2: They're saying that those practices are way harder than the

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Speaker 2: actual preseason game, and things are actually the offense isn't going.

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Speaker 2: People might be beat up, might be slowed down, taking slightly,

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Speaker 2: moving slower, and so unders in those joint practices where

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Speaker 2: you played the joint practice and then you had the

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Speaker 2: game and taken the under there, that actually has been

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Speaker 2: pretty good.

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Speaker 1: What about home versus road and travel scenarios too, is

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Speaker 1: or anything we can glean from that when we're talking

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Speaker 1: about trying to find an edge when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the preseason games.

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Speaker 2: I haven't really seen it for me. I haven't really

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Speaker 2: got behind, Hey, this team has really been really really

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Speaker 2: good at home, and this one has been really really

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Speaker 2: good on the road. Per se. I think it's just

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Speaker 2: more of, hey, where's this team been practicing? Where have

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Speaker 2: they been located at? Where's this Because you know the Cowboys,

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Speaker 2: they're all the way out in California. Then you got

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Speaker 2: to go to Dallas play a game, so are you

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Speaker 2: factoring in that travel and all of that. But for

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Speaker 2: the most part, the home road thing really doesn't exist

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Speaker 2: for me.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's switch gears here and talk a little

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Speaker 1: about quarterbacks before we do. Quick reminder about sharp AI,

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Speaker 2: Terrell.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the quarterbacks here for a second, because

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Speaker 1: there are instances, especially even we can look back to

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Speaker 1: last year, right, you saw JJ McCarthy after Sam Darnold

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Speaker 1: kind of you know, came out of the game. JJ

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Speaker 1: McCarthy coming in looking great, right, Unfortunately before the knee

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Speaker 1: injury happened. When we're looking here and the guys that

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Speaker 1: are getting limited reps a QB, but we either have

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Speaker 1: young quarterbacks behind them or proven veterans who are trying

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Speaker 1: to get reps. Is that a way to get an

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Speaker 1: edge in the preseason two? Because you know, especially situations

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Speaker 1: we have, like, for instance, it's very competitive in Cleveland

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Speaker 1: right now, right Is that a situation where you are

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Speaker 1: running two or running away from because of the quarterback play?

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 2: I actually love a great quarterback competition. I love to

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Speaker 2: see a quarterback room where you don't know who the

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Speaker 2: second guy is. Everybody may know who the first guy is.

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Speaker 2: We're talking, we're recording this right before the Hall of

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Speaker 2: Fame game, and you know, Jared Goff is QB one,

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Speaker 2: there's no question, no doubt about that. But who's QB

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Speaker 2: two over there? Is it gonna be Hendon Hooker? Is

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Speaker 2: it gonna be Kyle Allen? Like who's gonna be the

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Speaker 2: guy that's gonna come up and be that second quarterback?

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Speaker 2: And so it's competitions like that all over. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the Saints just got to figure out who their guy

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Speaker 2: is in general, So the Saints are taking this very

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Speaker 2: very serious. So I may be looking into Kellen Moore's

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Speaker 2: team and seeing what they're doing in this preseason because

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Speaker 2: they really really gotta figure it out, so they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be giving their main quarterbacks a lot of the reps.

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Speaker 2: But I love to see a good quarterback competition, not

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Speaker 2: at just the QB one spot, but definitely that QB

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Speaker 2: two spot, and who's going to definitely lock in their

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Speaker 2: roster spot every single week as I'm dressing out.

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Speaker 1: So when you see those situations right where there's either

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Speaker 1: quarterback dep or quarterback competition, does that portend a little

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Speaker 1: bit more potentially to you wanting to go for the

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Speaker 1: overs because you're talking about quarterbacks that really want to

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Speaker 1: push the football show off what they can do in

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Speaker 1: the offense. Because to me, it feels like that would

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Speaker 1: be a potential scenario, whereas some of these other ones

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Speaker 1: where it's just the regular number two guy that you

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Speaker 1: know kind of take for granted. We're just keeping him healthy,

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Speaker 1: we're just heading the football off trying not to get

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Speaker 1: hurt here because you know, we don't want to screw

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Speaker 1: up the depth shtart. But when it comes to battles,

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Speaker 1: that would mean to me at least that you would

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Speaker 1: be trying to again, you know, put some scores on

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Speaker 1: the board, trying to impress the coaching staff and the

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Speaker 1: general manager here to make sure that you have a

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Speaker 1: spot on this roster. So when you have those scenarios,

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Speaker 1: would you be pushing towards the actual overs as opposed

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Speaker 1: to the unders?

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Speaker 2: I actually think it's a two way street because it

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Speaker 2: depends on who is the personnel. If you're sitting here

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Speaker 2: and you're looking, who was it, I think it was

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Speaker 2: the Carolina Panthers that had a quarterback battle going on

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Speaker 2: for who was behind Bryce Young And I think who

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Speaker 2: was it? Andy Dalton? And it was like, what was

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Speaker 2: my guy's name? Plumber over from Louisville or he was

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Speaker 2: from Louisville, Kentucky, something like that. He just wasn't any good.

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Speaker 2: He just wasn't good. He was turning the football over

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Speaker 2: all the time. And so like you have stuff like

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Speaker 2: that where you just don't have a good quarterback room.

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Speaker 2: New York Giants for sure ain't have no good quarterback room. So, yes,

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Speaker 2: there was a battle and they were going on and seeing, Hey,

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Speaker 2: who's gonna be the number two? Is it gonna be

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Speaker 2: Tommy Devido, Is it gonna be Drew Locke, is gonna

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Speaker 2: be this? Or is it gonna be that and it's horrible.

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Speaker 2: It's absolutely horrible and it doesn't look good. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's really just the personnel, because you have teams

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Speaker 2: who have had great QB rooms, like the Ravens who

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Speaker 2: had Tyler Huntley at the number two spot. They felt

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Speaker 2: good about that, and then they were going out and

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Speaker 2: rolling out different guys. At one point it was like

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Speaker 2: Trasmick Sorely that was getting some good burn for them

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Speaker 2: in the preseason because they just kept a good QB room.

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Speaker 2: So I think it depends on personnel and staff and

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Speaker 2: honestly the team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was Jack Plumber. Is that who

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Speaker 1: you're looking for?

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Speaker 2: Jack Plumber?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Well, look good, good word of advice here on the show.

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Speaker 1: Probably don't invest too much in Jack Plumber, just saying

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Speaker 1: invest in a good plumber, yeah, because it's important in

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Speaker 1: your house. All right. Let's talk about the sides and

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Speaker 1: about the public here a little bit too, and the

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Speaker 1: potential for underdogs, because there are some teams, like you said,

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Speaker 1: that are bigger time teams like the Washington Commanders, have expectations.

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Speaker 1: Some other squads too, that are less appt to push

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Speaker 1: their players, are less app to really take these games seriously,

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Speaker 1: But you have some of these new coaches upstart situations

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Speaker 1: here where they are trying to prove themselves right away.

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Speaker 1: Are those opportunities there where you would say maybe you

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Speaker 1: were fading the public, because like, the public's on the commanders,

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Speaker 1: but you see a team like let's say the Carolina Panthers,

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Speaker 1: who really pressed forward last year towards the end of

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Speaker 1: the year, those scenario to me seem like there's potential.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree or disagree?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so too, Because for me and something

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Speaker 2: that is so violatile as the preseason, I think it's

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Speaker 2: really really hard for me to believe that the books

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Speaker 2: know what's gonna happen, and then the public also knows

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Speaker 2: what's gonna happen. Because when the books set a line

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Speaker 2: that I'm already like, okay, how are you even setting

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Speaker 2: this line? And then the public jumps all on one side,

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Speaker 2: I'm like, wait, how do you know that's one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent gonna be it? It's preseason now, I mean, of course,

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Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburg Steelers, you just gotta

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Speaker 2: bet that, like you just know that's gonna happen. But

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Speaker 2: it's like some of the other games that I'm just like,

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Speaker 2: oh wait, how did everybody get to this one consensus?

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Speaker 2: And that's one thing that I like to do. I'll

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Speaker 2: definitely go for reverse line movement because in the preseason

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Speaker 2: there has been a trend of if the line moves

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Speaker 2: a point in the direction one way or another, that

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Speaker 2: that side has actually been the way to go. So

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Speaker 2: if the public is jumping on one side and it's

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Speaker 2: moving a point direction on the other side, and it's

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Speaker 2: already trend of if it moves the line moves a

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Speaker 2: certain way that that's pretty much how it ends up.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, oh wait, this becomes even more and more interesting.

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Speaker 2: And now I'm looking into that possibility. Okay, if this

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Speaker 2: team is gonna win, is what's gonna need to happen

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Speaker 2: for them to win? What kind of player is gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to go off? Looking through the team scouting

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Speaker 2: reports and looking through the beat reporters, the beat reporters

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Speaker 2: and all social media will tell you, Hey, these players

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Speaker 2: are the ones that you're not looking at that are

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Speaker 2: catching a lot of buzz and they're probably gonna be

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Speaker 2: playing in the third and fourth quarter of these games.

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Speaker 1: Do you think those swings are too dramatic sometimes, like

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Speaker 1: when you get a late scratch in a game, or

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Speaker 1: they all they say so and so always gonna start today,

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Speaker 1: but unfortunately now it's actually not gonna be the case

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Speaker 1: because he's dealing with a hamstring issue or something like that.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes you see Vegas react or even overreact to that.

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Speaker 1: Are you somebody that you know is I guess is

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Speaker 1: the only way to put this is? Are you somebody

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Speaker 1: that has to kind of be waiting by your device

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Speaker 1: in order to see that in order to make sure

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Speaker 1: you're in on those moments? Or do you think it's

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Speaker 1: the Again, sometimes overrated in terms of how much the

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Speaker 1: lines might move depending on some of that late breaking news,

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Speaker 1: because we get a lot of it with these preseason

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Speaker 1: games too, especially we're told one thing on a Saturday

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Speaker 1: and then you get there Sunday and it's a difference.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, oh absolutely. And I'm always into the team, team Reddit,

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Speaker 2: some'm in the team and spaces, communities all of that,

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Speaker 2: Like I'm really really locked in. I'm following because I

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Speaker 2: want to know what is this movement? If there's no noise,

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Speaker 2: no nothing, everything is quiet for a game and there's

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Speaker 2: a one point line move there's no injuries, there's no

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Speaker 2: QB update, there's no nothing, and it's just this random

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Speaker 2: line move. I'm like, oh, okay, that actually kind of

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Speaker 2: that's intriguing. Let me look into that a little bit more.

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Speaker 2: But if they're going out and they're automatically saying, oh,

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Speaker 2: the starting offense is going to get a quarter and

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Speaker 2: a half of work, starting offense is going to play

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Speaker 2: for the whole first half, people are jumping to play

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Speaker 2: that team automatically, and it doesn't always work like that.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes the starting offense is trying to figure it out

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Speaker 2: as well, and they're going into the game saying all right,

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Speaker 2: let's try this to see if it works. Let's try

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Speaker 2: that and see if it works. And then next thing

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Speaker 2: you know, turnovers are here, turnover there, and the other

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Speaker 2: team is getting to win. So I think all of that,

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Speaker 2: the line moves, all of that, the team reporting, and

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Speaker 2: maybe the overreaction underreaction, you can only take it with

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Speaker 2: a grain of salt and say, okay, let me look

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Speaker 2: into that more. Let me put some more analysis into that,

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Speaker 2: rather than just saying, oh, I see that happen.

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Speaker 1: Let me bet it all right, Let's take a look

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Speaker 1: at some more strategy session here. I also we'll talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about the preseason bets that maybe Terrell's

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Speaker 1: even in on already as we're starting to unfold. But

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Speaker 1: before we do, don't forget make sure you download the

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Speaker 1: to use. The promo code is Juice, and activate your

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Speaker 1: trial on the upgrade screen right now for Betting Pros. Okay, Terrell,

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look right now at some of the

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Speaker 1: final strategies you have, philosophies you might have regarding this,

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Speaker 1: and then some favorite that's that you're already maybe potentially

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Speaker 1: looking at here in the preseason in the first couple weeks.

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Speaker 2: All right, So I talked about the I look towards

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Speaker 2: the under in the games where they have joint practices.

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Speaker 2: That was really really good to me last year. I

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Speaker 2: felt really really good about it. It made sound logic

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Speaker 2: that hey, okay, we're getting really really physical here, and

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Speaker 2: so a lot of the starters, a lot of the

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Speaker 2: guys that play meaningful roles that are gonna be on

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Speaker 2: the fifty two man roster might be taking it easy.

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Speaker 2: He might not be going as hard out. It gets

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Speaker 2: to be a glorified scrimmage at that point, and you

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Speaker 2: don't see a lot of points in those games. One

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Speaker 2: thing that really kept with me my coaches trends, of course,

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Speaker 2: but then also we just talked about the line movement.

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Speaker 2: I'm not jumping immediately to jumping on a team as

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Speaker 2: soon as they say the first team offense is going

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Speaker 2: to be playing a quarter a half, Like I've done

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Speaker 2: that in the past, Joe, and it has it worked

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Speaker 2: out for me, And I've wondered, like what's going on,

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Speaker 2: Like what do you mean they said that they're playing

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Speaker 2: the first quarter first half and they didn't hit. So,

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Speaker 2: like I learned from like you remember how you're a

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Speaker 2: kid and they're like, hey, don't touch the stove, it's hot.

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Speaker 1: And oh, my grandmother just do that to every kid

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Speaker 1: when they were young. There, come here and you actually

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Speaker 1: take your hand and put it near the stove so

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Speaker 1: you realize it was hot, and she's like, that's hot, right,

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Speaker 1: don't touch it there you go yep.

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Speaker 2: Well that's me and thatw preseason. That's me and Brettington preseason.

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Speaker 2: I just learned from my mistakes from year after year

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Speaker 2: after year. That's really what it is. I really don't

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Speaker 2: think I'm any different than anybody else. I just learned

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Speaker 2: from my mistakes. I realize whenever I see a report

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Speaker 2: that this team is playing this offense the whole first

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Speaker 2: half and the line starts moving towards that seam, and

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Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, let me bet that seam. It has

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Speaker 2: not worked out for me. I'm sorry, it just has it,

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Speaker 2: So maybe look into it a little bit more. Do

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Speaker 2: your research. Hey, what is that? What are they not

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Speaker 2: seeing in practice from that first team offense that says, hey,

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Speaker 2: we need to put you in a game more. We

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Speaker 2: don't trust you to just go to practice. And then

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Speaker 2: we got to see it in a game setting more.

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Speaker 2: Maybe there's a reason that first team offense has to

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Speaker 2: play more, so maybe we need to start looking the

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Speaker 2: other way. And so it's different, different things that I

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Speaker 2: like to consider, but those are the main ones.

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Speaker 1: All right. If you want full breakdowns, by the way, Terrell,

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Speaker 1: myself and Andrew Erickson here on the channel, but going

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Speaker 1: through every single division giving you our favorite win totals,

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Speaker 1: our favorite division winners, our favorite bets for each division

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Speaker 1: two but just to run through real quick too, just

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Speaker 1: some of these preseason bets that are again in there.

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Speaker 1: Now this is before August first, we haven't even really

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Speaker 1: kicked off preseason quite yet. But my first take on

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Speaker 1: MVP is Joe Burrow at plus six hundred. My first

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Speaker 1: take right now, offensive play of the year for the

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Speaker 1: rookie side. This one is where I struggle because no,

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Speaker 1: I don't think cam Ward is the clear favorite, you know,

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Speaker 1: like we've had in the pass where there's always quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: at the top of this award. Typically, I think it's tougher.

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Speaker 1: You got gent D, you got Tech McMillan, you got Hampton.

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Speaker 1: I think Teed McMillan at plus sixteen hundred is fascinating

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Speaker 1: because he could have a Brian Thomas junior type season.

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Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year, my early look is a

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Speaker 1: great value on plus fifteen hundred for Jared Verse, I

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Speaker 1: think is ready to take that next step potentially for

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Speaker 1: AP Offensive Player of the Year, I'm fading Barkley because

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Speaker 1: those four nt and thirty six carries that typically does

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Speaker 1: not go well the next season. So I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase at plus nine hundred and Jon Robinson plus

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Speaker 1: sixteen hundred. To me, those are two really good bets

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Speaker 1: for Coach of the Year too. I gotta say I'm

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Speaker 1: loving Mike Rabel. I think a plus seven to fifty

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Speaker 1: you can get to ten wins. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: terrific spot there. And then Defensive Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 1: I kind of feel like it's gonna be Abdul Carter,

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Speaker 1: which is your New York giant there, Terrell. I know

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Speaker 1: we'll be doing a lot more when it comes to

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Speaker 1: preseason in terms of the futures market, but so far

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Speaker 1: as we're kind of starting to dip our toes in

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Speaker 1: the water, any of these awards stick out to you

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Speaker 1: that you want to get early before any movement might happen.

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Speaker 2: Oh well, the Joe Burrow MVP is just after the

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Speaker 2: Participation in Trophy that Josh Allen won last year. I

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Speaker 2: am so locked into now we're just passing the Participation

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Speaker 2: in trophy along. And they they wanted to give it

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Speaker 2: to Joe so bad last year too. They were begging

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Speaker 2: that Begels defense please please just get a stop and

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Speaker 2: get some wins so we can give it to him, please,

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Speaker 2: And so now, I mean, it's hard to be as

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Speaker 2: bad as they were last year. So if the defense

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Speaker 2: improves at all any little bit, I think the offense

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Speaker 2: is still gonna be rolling. And yeah, they're gonna give

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Speaker 2: it to Joe if he just has the wins to

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Speaker 2: go along with it, and I think they will, so

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Speaker 2: it's for sure Joe Burrow, like honestly truly, I get

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Speaker 2: to dabble in and like doing my long shots at

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Speaker 2: normal as normal, but then I just keep going back.

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Speaker 2: So they really just gave Josh Allen to Participation Trophy

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Speaker 2: last year.

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Speaker 1: It's just pretty good. I mean, come on, a pro.

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Speaker 2: Second scene, I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: My vote, if I had one, which I don't, would

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Speaker 1: have been lamar easy, and my second vote might have

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Speaker 1: been Derrick Henry, But man, I will turn around and

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Speaker 1: say that, you know, look, if you it's always a

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Speaker 1: quarterback of war at this point. But as you said,

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Speaker 1: everybody kind of gets a turn uh here with the MVP,

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Speaker 1: and I just feel like and it plays right into

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Speaker 1: my whole narrative too, because the MVP never wins a

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Speaker 1: super Bowl, and I don't think the Bengals are gonna

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Speaker 1: win the super Bowl with that defense, and I think

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Speaker 1: the Ravens might finally get that ring for Lamar. But

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Speaker 1: what do you think? Drop your comments below? What are

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Speaker 1: your who's your MVP? Let's do that. Who is your

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Speaker 1: MVP prediction? Here? Drop it in the chat below. Was

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Speaker 1: it a participation trophy last year for Josh Allen? I

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Speaker 1: could feel all those Buffalo Bills fans in the comments already.

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Speaker 1: Drop hello, subscribe to the channel like this video too,

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Speaker 1: and be with us here at Betting Pros for all

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Speaker 1: of your NFL wagering. That'll do it for us, But

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Speaker 1: the story of the game goes on. For Terrell Furman Junior,

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Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, Kaz.

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