1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: Call Zone Media. 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 2: Last week, two major news networks, CNN and CNBC partnered 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 2: with the so called prediction market Calshi, an online political 4 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 2: betting platform, to use Calshi's real time betting data in 5 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 2: TV news segments, online news content, and as Calshi announced 6 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: on X the Everything app quote to integrate prediction Markets 7 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: into CNN's global newsroom, with Kalshi threatening quote, a new 8 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 2: era of media is here. This is it could happen here. 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 2: I'm Garrison Davis. Regular CNN viewers may have noticed this 10 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: integration has already been happening for some time. This past 11 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: election cycle, news anchors used betting odds in place of 12 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: an addition to polling data to weigh the likelihood of 13 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 2: candidates when elections. CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enton Nate 14 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 2: Silver Protege, who used to work for five thirty eight 15 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: trailblazed the use of political gambling data in news stories 16 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 2: earlier this year. How she praised Entin by name in 17 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 2: their announcement of the CNN partnership. 18 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 3: Quote. 19 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: Entin is an expert at translating what data and polling 20 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 2: are saying on any given issue, and through this integration, 21 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: he can tap into real time prediction markets data to 22 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: better inform and fact check his reporting unquote. Here's an 23 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 2: example of this reporting in a CNN segment from October 24 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. 25 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 4: If you go back six months ago, you go back 26 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 4: to April k bauldwhen what were we looking at, Well, 27 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 4: we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear 28 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 4: shot of taking control of the US House of Representatives. 29 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 4: According to the Calshi prediction market odds, we saw him. 30 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 3: In an eighty three percent chance. 31 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 4: But those odds have gone plummeting down now we're talking 32 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 4: about just a sixty three percent chance, while the gopiece 33 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 4: chances up like rocket up like gold, up from seventeen 34 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 4: percent to now a thirty seven percent chance. So will 35 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 4: look like a pretty clear Demo likely Democratic win in 36 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 4: the House come next year has become much closer to 37 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 4: toss up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic. 38 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,679 Speaker 2: Harry Enton never clarifies how these quote unquote odds are 39 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 2: formed or what they really are. To a viewer who 40 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 2: just tuned in or maybe isn't paying that much attention, 41 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 2: it would be very unclear that these numbers are actually 42 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 2: from a gambling website. They're just big percentages displayed on 43 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 2: screen the way you would see polling data or legitimate 44 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 2: information used in a newsroom. This short section using the 45 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 2: Caushi prediction market odds was then followed by three minutes 46 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: of analysis using selective mid term voting data from twenty 47 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 2: seventeen to twenty eighteen to support the movement in these 48 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 2: gambling odds. The gambling odds themselves with a load bearing 49 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 2: piece of information in this piece. Calshi's main competitor, another 50 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 2: so called prediction market called poly Market, partnered with x 51 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 2: the Everything app and Yahoo Finance earlier this year to 52 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 2: integrate their prediction data into online news content. Time Magazine 53 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: and Sports Illustrated have also both launched deals with the 54 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 2: prediction market platform Galactic. So what exactly are these prediction 55 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 2: markets and how do they function? On poly Market and Calshi, 56 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 2: users can bet yes or no on the outcome of 57 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 2: a question relating to world events, which is called a market. 58 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 2: As more money is wagered on either side, the odds 59 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 2: of the outcome change. Currently, top questions include various predictions 60 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 2: for Time Person of the Year, will the US strike 61 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: Venezuela before the end of the year, the release of 62 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 2: the Epstein files, and who will be the next president. 63 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: Calshi has tried chances at six percent. Here's Polymarket CEO 64 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 2: Shane Copelan explaining on sixty minutes. 65 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: You make money if you're right, you lose money if 66 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: you're wrong, and as a result, it creates this information 67 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: that's really isful for people. 68 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 2: These companies would like you to believe that the ratio 69 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: of people betting yes or no on a certain outcome 70 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 2: of world events is somehow useful or reliable information for 71 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 2: the general public to forecast the future, whether that's through 72 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 2: betting on the likelihood of an upcoming recession, the winner 73 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 2: of a sports game, which days of the week Israel 74 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 2: will bomb Gaza, or what movie will win Best Picture. 75 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 2: Almost fifty million dollars is currently being wagered over a 76 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 2: potential Russia Ukraine ceasefire in twenty twenty five. Production markets 77 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 2: currently have three billion dollars in weekly trading volume. I 78 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 2: do need to note these companies argue that hedging out 79 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 2: homes of world events legally is not gambling, because that 80 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 2: would be illegal. Payments through unauthorized gambling sites are illegal 81 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 2: under the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of two thousand 82 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 2: and six, which suppressed the early prediction markets of the 83 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 2: two thousands, but CALSHI is regulated as a platform for 84 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 2: trading financial derivatives rather than securities trading or straight up 85 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 2: legalized gambling, and this determines what entity they have to 86 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 2: register with and what regulations they're subject to. CALSHI launched 87 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one with a federal license from the 88 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 2: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and after a year's long battle, 89 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 2: in October twenty twenty four, a federal appeals court ruled 90 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 2: in favor of CALSHI, allowing online prediction market betting on 91 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 2: US elections, rejecting claims by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission 92 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 2: that the practice was illegal gambling and their concerns that 93 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 2: prediction market betting could undermine a lie election integrity. Former 94 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 2: CFDC chairman Rostam benham My statement in May of twenty 95 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 2: twenty four, reading quote contracts involving political events ultimately commoditize 96 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 2: and degrade the integrity of the uniquely American experience of 97 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 2: participating in the democratic electoral process. Allowing these contracts would 98 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 2: push the CFTC, a financial market regulator, into a position 99 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 2: far beyond its Congressional mandate and expertise quote. A week 100 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 2: before his dad took office in January twenty twenty five, 101 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 2: Donald Trump Junior became a strategic advisor at Calshi. Polymarket 102 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 2: launched in twenty twenty without registering with the Commodity Futures 103 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 2: Trading Commission, and was fined one point four million dollars 104 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 2: by the CFTC in twenty twenty two for operating as 105 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 2: an unregulated exchange and was henceforth prohibited from allowing bets 106 00:06:56,200 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 2: from US based users. Though the Polymarket CEA EO sees 107 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 2: it a little different. 108 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 5: It was at one point four million dollars fine, and 109 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,839 Speaker 5: also it was a settlement and you could not have 110 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 5: customers in the United States. 111 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, we had to go in geoblock trading in the 112 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: US and move certain operations offshore. And it wasn't hey 113 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: you're banned from trading the US. It's like until you're licensed. 114 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 3: I mean it was breaking the law. 115 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: I mean people say, bring the law. It's like which law, 116 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: you know? So if anything it's incompatible. 117 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 3: It's incompatible with the law. Yeah. 118 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: With the regulatory matrix that existed the past two years, 119 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 2: Polymarket has found to be facilitating illegal gambling and subsequently 120 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 2: banned in the countries of Switzerland, France, the UK, Poland, Singapore, Belgium, 121 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: Romania and Australia. Most of these bands just required geoblocking users, 122 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 2: which can be easily circumvented through the use of a VPN, 123 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 2: and since the financial transactions on poly market are all 124 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 2: done through cryptocurrency, it's not clear that poly market is 125 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 2: taking any steps to enforce these banksands beyond geo blocking. 126 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 2: In the midst of facing regulatory hurdles and bands from 127 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 2: across the globe, Polymarket still exploded in popularity last year, 128 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: attracting investment from Peter Thiel's venture capital firm and hundreds 129 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 2: of thousands of new users, primarily driven by betting on 130 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: the US presidential election, speculation on whether Biden would drop 131 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 2: out of the race and who Trump would pick as 132 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 2: vice president, all despite the platform technically being banned in 133 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 2: the United States after the first presidential debate in July 134 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, around the attempted assassination of Trump and 135 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 2: the RNC, Polymarket gained sixty thousand new accounts. The year prior, 136 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 2: polymarket averaged two thousand, three hundred new accounts, per month. 137 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 2: August twenty twenty four saw seventy thousand new accounts, September 138 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 2: ninety thousand, October three hundred thousand, the month after Trump's 139 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: second inauguration four hundred thousand. Currently, polymarket has over sixty 140 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 2: thousand daily active traders and hundreds of thousands of monthly 141 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: traders since October twenty twenty four. To give another example 142 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 2: of their recent growth, in April twenty twenty three, Polymarket's 143 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 2: monthly volume was about three million dollars. A year later, 144 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: it was thirty nine million. In November twenty twenty four, 145 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 2: it was two point five billion. Last month, it was 146 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 2: three point seven billion. In summer twenty twenty five, cash 147 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 2: Pttel's FBI and the CFTC under Trump dropped investigations into 148 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 2: whether polymarket was illegally allowing US users to place bets 149 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 2: using VPNs. Shortly thereafter, Donald Trump Junior's venture capital firm 150 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 2: invested in the platform, and Trump Junior himself joined Polymarket's 151 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 2: advisory board. Curiously, a few days after Trump Junior joined 152 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 2: poly Market, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced it was 153 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 2: going to allow poly market to operate in the United 154 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 2: States after acquiring another company that held a US license. 155 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 2: This past October, Trump's own truth Social announced it was 156 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 2: partnering with Crypto dot Com to launch truth predict quote, 157 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 2: a revolutionary prediction market backed by President Trump for enhanced 158 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 2: decision making unquote. When Barry Weiss's sixty Minutes did a 159 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 2: puff piece on Polymarket with its CEO last week, Anderson 160 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 2: Cooper inquired about the risk of insider trading, poly Market's CEO, 161 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 2: Shane Kaplan, seemed to think that a little bit of 162 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 2: insider trading my be good actually. 163 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 5: But predictive markets do rely on someone having some inside information. 164 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that people going and having an edge 165 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 1: to the market is a good thing. Obviously, you need 166 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: to curate them, and you need to be really clear 167 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: and stringent on where the line is drawn and like 168 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,559 Speaker 1: sort of ethics, and we spend a lot of time 169 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: on that. But it's sort of an inevitability that this 170 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: will happen and there's a lot of benefits from it 171 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: and people will adapt. 172 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 2: The CEO did not elaborate on what polymarkets practice of 173 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 2: curating insider trading looks like and where their quote unquote 174 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 2: stringent line is drawn, because in reality it doesn't seem 175 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 2: this line exists. They essentially encourage insider trading through these 176 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 2: vague statements and lack of clear enforcement. From the point 177 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 2: of view of these platforms, insider trading makes their prediction 178 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 2: markets more accurate, so it's a net positive, and if 179 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 2: it fucks over some users on the other side of 180 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 2: a bet, that's just the cost of business. Last week, 181 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 2: an alleged insider trader won over a million dollars for 182 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: bets on Google's twenty twenty five year in search rankings, 183 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 2: listing twenty two out of twenty three in the correct order. 184 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 2: This user has made a series of early bets related 185 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 2: to Google the past year, like the exact release date 186 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 2: of Google's Gemini three point zero, which they won one 187 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty thousand dollars on. But because this poly 188 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 2: market user isn't trading stock, there's no clear regulatory mechanism 189 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: to stop this behavior, and polymarket can't reverse these trades 190 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 2: because they run through the blockchain, not that they would 191 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 2: even necessarily want to. Professional gambler, political data analyst and 192 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 2: poly Market advisor Nate Silver was also asked about insider 193 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 2: trading on the China Talk podcast two months ago. 194 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 6: Are you worried about insider trading with this, with all 195 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 6: this political betting. I mean there's an aspect of like, look, 196 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 6: these are all crypto, you know, you get on these 197 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 6: markets with crypto and like like there were markets like 198 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 6: which way is Suzanne Collins going to vote? And you 199 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 6: know the sort of the like you know, like the 200 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,079 Speaker 6: tail outcomes for like a legislative assistant in her office? 201 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 6: Are you know you can make ten times your salary? 202 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 6: And like a minute, right, what's your what's your think 203 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 6: think on this? 204 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:32,079 Speaker 3: For sure? 205 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 7: I mean, look, I think there are a couple of 206 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 7: qualifications though, Like, first of all, I think people on 207 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 7: the inside often earn't as well as some formed as 208 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 7: they think, and or there are some downsides having an 209 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 7: inside view and not an outside of you. You might 210 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 7: drinp the kool aid, so to speak, right, you might 211 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 7: be in a bubble. 212 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, look, I mean I mean there are ones where 213 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 6: it's like you can literally I mean there's been a 214 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 6: lots of group chats people talking about like very very 215 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 6: sketchy trades and one way bets that are being made 216 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 6: in the stock market of like what's going to happen. 217 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 3: With a trade deal? 218 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 6: I mean you can literally be the person who decides 219 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 6: right and be vetting on the side if weird. 220 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 7: If there are incentives to make money in a world 221 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 7: of eight billion people, many of them are very competitive, 222 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 7: and all of whom and not all of them, most 223 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 7: of them access to the internet, right, people are going 224 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 7: to find a way a way to do it. 225 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: Right, Let's pause here for a sec. What do you 226 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 2: think Nick goes on to list as a comparison to 227 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 2: political insider trading as like an unfortunate but somewhat inevitable 228 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 2: consequence of our evolving system of finance. 229 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 7: Like in the crypto space, we've seen like an increasing 230 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 7: the number of like crypto kidnappings. Right, Well, I mean 231 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 7: that's one of the consequences if people are worth vast 232 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 7: amounts of wealth that isn't very secure. It's just it's 233 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 7: just gonna gonna happen until you up security or have 234 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 7: better solutions or whatever else. And so like, you know, 235 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 7: I don't think there's necessarily anymore or less insider creating 236 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 7: on polymarket then there might be for in sports betting side, 237 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 7: we've seen a lot of sports betting scandals or for 238 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 7: regular equities, you know, I believe the literature says that 239 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 7: like members of Congress achieve abnormal returns from their stock portfolios, 240 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 7: I'd have to double I'm sure there's some debate about that. 241 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 7: I after like to double check that. 242 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 8: Right. 243 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 2: It's fine, bros. It's just like cryptocurrency kidnapping. It's fine. Actually, 244 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 2: So Naate goes on to say that prediction market insider 245 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 2: trading isn't that different from congressmen doing insider trading on 246 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 2: the stock market, or like rigged sports betting, but he 247 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 2: really neglects to emphasize that those things are also bad 248 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 2: and should be aggressively clamped down on. That shouldn't be allowed, 249 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 2: and prediction markets intentionally skirt regulation. They currently have far 250 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 2: less legal protections for users against unfair practices, and with 251 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 2: crypto they can be pretty anonymized, enabling bad actors. And 252 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 2: now news companies are legitimizing turning everyone's phone into a 253 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 2: corrupt casino for world events, whether that's Israel starving Palestine 254 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 2: or how many tweets Elon Musk is going to publish 255 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 2: this week. The day before CAW she announced their partnership 256 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: agreement with CNN and NCNBC. CBS aired a sixty minutes 257 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 2: puff piece on Polymarket anchored by Anderson Cooper. 258 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 5: When we met with Copeland last month, more than three 259 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 5: point six million dollars had been wagered on whether or 260 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 5: not Venezuela's president, Nicholas Muduro would be out of power 261 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 5: by the end of the year. Polymarket users didn't think, 262 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 5: so they gave it only a twenty three percent chance. 263 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 5: And if you buy no on that, and you're buying 264 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 5: it at seventy eight cents and at the end of 265 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 5: the year he's still in power, yeah, you get a 266 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 5: dollar per share, so you've made a profit of twenty 267 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 5: to share. I can't see why this would be I mean, 268 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 5: I don't want to is a term addictive, but it 269 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 5: would be compelling. 270 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 3: I mean maybe it is a TICNII well, certainly compelling. 271 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 3: This is how I see it. 272 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: If you are into geopolitics, this creates an incentive for 273 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: you to dig in to what's going on in Venezuela 274 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: and try and get an edge. 275 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 2: Anderson Cooper, who both works for the newly Calshi partner 276 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 2: at CNN as well as CBS's Sixty Minutes, is so 277 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 2: hesitant to call this clearly addictive practice addictive quote unquote compelling. 278 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: Here's how Polymarket CEO Shane Copelan explained the platform earlier 279 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 2: in this piece. 280 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: It's a site where you can basically bet on current events, 281 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: some sort of question about the future, like an election, 282 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: and as a result, when a ton of people are betting, 283 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 1: you get the betting odds, which basically tell you how 284 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: likely each outcome. 285 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 3: Is and how accurate is it. 286 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 1: It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now, 287 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 1: until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball. 288 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 2: Anderson Cooper responds with narration that the CEO quote may 289 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 2: be prone to hyperbole, but he's definitely onto something unquote. 290 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 2: In explaining how poly Market users attempt to seek truth 291 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 2: and gain an edge, copeland told the story of how 292 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four, an anonymous French user made over 293 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 2: eighty million dollars on poly Market by betting on Trump 294 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 2: winning the presidential election, and to bolster his bets, he 295 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,360 Speaker 2: contracted YouGov to conduct private polls in swing states. 296 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: People thought he'd just liked Trump, and he had actually 297 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: commissioned a ton of private polls. He did something called 298 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: neighbor polling, which is you ask people who they think 299 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: their neighbors are likely to vote for four scenarios for 300 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: an election where there's a stigma to saying you're going 301 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: to vote for somebody, and people feel some sort of 302 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 1: social awkwardness. And what he noticed was there was huge 303 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: discrepancy in the neighbor polling versus the normal polling, and 304 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: the neighbor polling favored Trump enormously. 305 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 3: He thought Trump was undervalued. 306 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 1: If this guy was not able to make eighty million, 307 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: but rather able to make eighty thousand dollars, he would 308 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: have never gone through the hassle. But when you get 309 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: markets that are big enough, you create this incentive for 310 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: people to go above and beyond to try and find truth. 311 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 2: What the CEO is arguing here is that the sheer 312 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:19,360 Speaker 2: scale of money being wagered creates incentive to quote unquote 313 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:24,239 Speaker 2: find truth. In media discussions of prediction markets, there's this 314 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 2: specter of objectivity around the gambled odds, which obviously the 315 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 2: CEO of poly Market has a personal incentive to encourage. 316 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 2: But Anderson Cooper here doesn't challenge this notion of capital 317 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 2: t truth. Even though Donald Trump was way ahead in 318 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 2: prediction market odds back during the twenty twenty election, which 319 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 2: had his chances of winning that election far higher than 320 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 2: what pure polling models showed. Kalshi claims that prediction markets 321 00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 2: can help journalists quote unquote fact check, but doesn't explain 322 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 2: how fact can be determined from speculative gambling markets. Where 323 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 2: is the fact in gambling? Well, we will find out 324 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 2: after these ads. To quote from poly market advisor Nate 325 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 2: Silver's blog The Silver Bulletin quote, It's basically good when 326 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 2: people are more exposed to probabilities and they become more normalized. 327 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 2: But of course I also analyze poles and build probabilistic 328 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 2: models myself. In that capacity, I strongly disagree with the 329 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 2: notion that prediction markets can serve as a good substitute 330 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 2: for poles. These sorts of claims are sometimes advanced by 331 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 2: the prediction market companies themselves, including poly Market. To be fair, 332 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 2: one minor pet peeve is that both reporters and readers 333 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 2: often confuse probabilities for poll results unquote. As Nate goes 334 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 2: on to explain, if Trump is up fifty five to 335 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: forty five over Kamala Harris on a prediction market, that's 336 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 2: not saying that Trump is expected to win by ten points. 337 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 2: It means that ten percent more users on the website 338 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 2: favor Trump winning, which is pretty close to a toss up. 339 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 2: This confusion is a huge problem, which is bolstered in 340 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 2: both how prediction market companies market their platform, but also 341 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 2: how journalists use gambling data in news stories. If you 342 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 2: see a social media post, an advertisement, or a random 343 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 2: news segment showing percentages tied to pictures of two politicians 344 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 2: in a race without context, those betting numbers could be 345 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 2: interpreted in a number of ways and influence someone's perception 346 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 2: of an election and maybe even their choice on who 347 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,360 Speaker 2: to vote for, or even whether to vote at all. 348 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 2: In an October speech, Zora Mumdani reference to Calshi billboards 349 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 2: predicting a Cuomo victory in the Democratic primary. 350 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 9: When I walked the length of Manhattan just a few 351 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 9: days before the election, hundreds of New Yorkers marched alongside me. 352 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 9: And when we strolled into Times Square under a billboard 353 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 9: with betting odds that showed Cuomo's chances of winning at 354 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 9: nearly eighty percent, we knew that the so called experts 355 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 9: were set to get it wrong yet again. Andrew Cuomo 356 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 9: was supposed to be inevitable. When you see the Calshi 357 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 9: odds that have our chances of victory in the nineties. 358 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 9: Know this. You are reading the same things that Andrew 359 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 9: Cuomo read when he went to sleep each night in June, 360 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 9: believing that his victory was promised. We cannot allow complace 361 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 9: see to infiltrate this movement. 362 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 2: Cal She excitedly shared the latter half of that clip, 363 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 2: proclaiming breaking zoron Mamdani references his Calci odds on stage, 364 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 2: Calshi is mainstream unquote despite this clip demonstrating how prediction 365 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 2: markets often suffer from inaccurate bias. Last week, Discount Steve Kornaki, 366 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: former five poin thirty eight analyst and now CNN's data 367 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 2: expert Harry Enton shared this segment about the Tennessee District 368 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 2: seven special election on x the Everything app with the 369 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 2: caption odds are Dems will come within ten points of 370 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 2: a win, if not outright win. 371 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 10: I would say, if you had to look at the 372 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 10: congressional map any district that Donald Trump won by twenty 373 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 10: two points, you would say, you know, you've got like 374 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 10: nearly a one hundred percent chance of winning if you're 375 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 10: running for Congress there. 376 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 3: But what are the prediction markets saying right. 377 00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 4: Now, Yeah, what are we talking about in terms of 378 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 4: diction market huts. Look, the Democrat has a fifteen percent 379 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 4: chance of winning in that race. Okay, a fifteen percent chance, 380 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 4: which ain't nothing in a district that Donald Trump won 381 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 4: by twenty two points. But here, I think is the 382 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 4: key nugget on this side of the of the ledger, 383 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 4: and that is a GOP win by under ten points. 384 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 4: There's a sixty eight percent chance of that. So there 385 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 4: is a more than two thirds chance that the Republican candidate, Yes, 386 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 4: they win, but they win by a significantly lower margin 387 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 4: than Donald Trump. We're talking about double digits, smaller. We're 388 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 4: talking about a huge, huge shift to the left. We're 389 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 4: talking about When you add these two together, we're talking 390 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 4: about a more than eighty percent chance that there is 391 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 4: a clear double digit shift to the left, and a 392 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 4: fifteen percent chance the Democrat actually wins in a district 393 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 4: that Donald Trump won by twenty two points. That just 394 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 4: shows you how bad the environment is for Republicans right now, 395 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 4: that the Democrat has any sort of a chance in 396 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 4: this talk to me about with a special lak. 397 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: He's just authoritatively rattling off complete speculation on a Democrat victor. 398 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 2: As big screens display percentages in huge text with source 399 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 2: Calci in tiny text the bottom of the screen. Ordinary 400 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 2: polling showed that this was a close race that leaned 401 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 2: Red by two to eight points, and the Republican did 402 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 2: end up winning by nine points. To quote the broken 403 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 2: clock Nate silver quote. Without having polls to look at, 404 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 2: the prediction markets would probably kind of suck at making 405 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 2: election forecasts. Translating poles into probabilities is considerably more complicated 406 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 2: when there are many correlated races at once, such as 407 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 2: in the battle for the electoral College or control of Congress. 408 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 2: Prediction markets had a strong twenty twenty four in this regard. 409 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 2: They leaned toward Trump when our model had it at 410 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. I don't think this was because of 411 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 2: any special modeling insight per se, but because they incorporated 412 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:04,720 Speaker 2: some sort of prior intuition that Trump would overperform his polls. Again, 413 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 2: so give the markets credit for that. These sorts of 414 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 2: soft quote unquote intangible intuitions can be valuable, though you'd 415 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 2: need a lot of data to determine whether they add 416 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 2: or subtract value in the long run unquote, As Nate 417 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 2: himself acknowledges someone like Andrew Cuomo had much higher betting 418 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 2: odds throughout the entire New York mayoral race than a 419 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 2: purely statistical model would show. A contention I have with Nate. 420 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,880 Speaker 2: One of many is though I call prediction market numbers 421 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 2: gambling odds, they are not actual probabilities. These odds aren't 422 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 2: based on objective mathematical principles like flipping a coin, the 423 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 2: three door problem, or even something like blackjack. These odds 424 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 2: are created whole cloth through guessing, sometimes educated or day 425 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 2: informed guessing, but still primarily through people's intuition, which is 426 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:10,439 Speaker 2: susceptible to group impulses. Many random world events lack a 427 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 2: reliable basis of continuous controlled data that's needed to form 428 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 2: a probability like that which is applied to legalized sports betting. 429 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 2: This is quite evident in the betting odds around the 430 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 2: last Papal conclave, which had very little relevant data to 431 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 2: use for informed predictions. There was no existing probability to 432 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 2: support the election of an American pope, a first time occurrence. 433 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 2: With prediction markets, people can still do research to make 434 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 2: an informed bet, but it's not really the case that 435 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 2: ex candidate is mathematically expected to win an election. Eighty 436 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 2: out of one hundred instances, a hive mind of users 437 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 2: have formed that statistical division. Through the power of money, 438 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,199 Speaker 2: eighty percent of users are betting that a certain result 439 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 2: is likely to occur. So the problem isn't just that, 440 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 2: like Nate says, people are confusing probabilities for polls. It's 441 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 2: that they're confusing prediction market betting odds for mathematical probabilities. 442 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,479 Speaker 2: It's this difference that allows betting on sports outcomes via 443 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 2: Calshian polymarket, even in states that ban typical sports betting, 444 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 2: because you're not actually betting on fixed odds, you're betting 445 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 2: against other investors. And now news companies are not just 446 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:38,240 Speaker 2: manufacturing consent and normalizing political gambling, but are actively encouraging 447 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 2: the use of these platforms and endorsing the predictive capacity 448 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 2: of these gambling markets. Anderson Cooper calls it the quote 449 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 2: unquote wisdom of crowds. But we already have methods for 450 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 2: learning group consensus, like polling, which may have problems, but 451 00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 2: frankly far fewer problems than gambling on world events. Beyond 452 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: the moral qualms of betting money on human suffering, prediction 453 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 2: markets are susceptible to not just personal bias, but group 454 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 2: bias based on the current ratio of odds. This in 455 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 2: group consensus can be influenced by short lived trending topics, 456 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 2: and these platforms cater to a hyper online point of view. 457 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 2: Prediction market users provide a very non representational sample variety 458 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 2: pulling from a very specific type of guy who regularly 459 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 2: uses these platforms. To quote from Calsh's CNN Partnership announcement, quote, 460 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 2: cal she has become the definitive source for staying informed 461 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 2: about the future and is used by reporters, politicians, pundits, 462 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,719 Speaker 2: Wall Street and Main Street get recently called the New 463 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 2: York City mayoral election eight minutes after polls closed, hours 464 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 2: before the media. It's because of this accuracy that calci's 465 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 2: data will serve as a powerful complement to CNN's reporting. 466 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 2: Lists can more easily surface credible information to their audiences 467 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 2: about the real time probabilities of future cultural and political 468 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 2: events unquote. In practice, this reporting mixes gambling data and 469 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:19,479 Speaker 2: actually reputable or credible pulls in a confusing way, like 470 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:23,239 Speaker 2: this recent scene end segment, which cites Calshi odds on 471 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 2: whether Trump will send tariff stimulus checks as well as 472 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 2: CBS you gov polling data on if tariff's lower prices 473 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 2: back to back In the same segment, do. 474 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 4: They think that the tariffs, that these rebay checks are 475 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 4: actually coming? And at this point now no, I mean 476 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 4: chance Trump tariff the tariff stimulus checks are sent to 477 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 4: Americans by August of twenty twenty six. It's a twenty 478 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 4: five percent chance. That's one in four, So that's not nothing. 479 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:57,160 Speaker 4: But the American people right now are craving, craving some relief, 480 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 4: and at this point it doesn't look like it is coming. 481 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 4: Although I will note John Berman, this twenty five percent, 482 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 4: it is greater than this six percent who say that 483 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 4: terrors decrease prices, or that five percent back in March, 484 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 4: which are just you never see one, two, three, four, 485 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 4: five percent. So look, twenty five percent eight nothing. 486 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 3: But at this point it's love. 487 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,959 Speaker 10: Yeah, it's interesting the prediction, Marcus think they only one 488 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 10: in four chance that will actually happen. 489 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 2: There is this really what the future of political forecasting 490 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 2: is going to be? Maybe, maybe not, but there are 491 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 2: four horsemen of this political gambling apocalypse. Nate Silver via 492 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 2: his gamification of election predictions based on his time as 493 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 2: a professional gambler sports betting, especially since the Supreme Court 494 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 2: struck down a federal law banning sports betting outside of 495 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 2: Nevada in twenty eighteen, resulting in almost forty states subsequently 496 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 2: legalizing some form of sports betting, which has facilitated the 497 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 2: cassibility of gambling to grow dramatically across the country in 498 00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 2: the past ten years through the spread of online sports 499 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 2: betting apps. The third horseman is Trump, for the Trump 500 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 2: administration through their removal of regulatory hurdles facing prediction markets. 501 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 2: And finally that CNN guy Harry Enton, a Nate Silver 502 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 2: protege who trailblazed the use of political gambling data in 503 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 2: news stories the past year. These four horsemen, Nate Silver, 504 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 2: sports betting, Trump, and Harry Enton have created the cultural 505 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 2: and political conditions for political gambling to spread. Like wildfire, which, 506 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,959 Speaker 2: hey is also something you can bet on. During the 507 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 2: LA Fires prediction market, users could bet on how many 508 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:42,840 Speaker 2: acres would burn. So what is the endgame of this, 509 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 2: this gambling apocalypse that seems to be inching its way 510 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 2: closer and closer To answer that? Here's a clip from 511 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 2: Calshi co founder and CEO Derek Manser. 512 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 8: The long term vision is to financialize everything and create 513 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 8: a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. We 514 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 8: are living in a where like we have an abundance 515 00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 8: of information, but there's a lot of noise, and like 516 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 8: we don't really understand what's really from what's not. And 517 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,719 Speaker 8: prediction markets are an antidote to that. They do very 518 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 8: very good job at distilling information and surfacing truth to people. 519 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 3: And you're seeing the sort. 520 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 8: Of massive shift where like people are using them whenever 521 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 8: they think about questions about the future, you know, whenever 522 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 8: they're debating about anything. And I think that trajectory is 523 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 8: going to keep going. That's a new consumer habit that 524 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:24,600 Speaker 8: I don't think is going to be undone. 525 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 2: This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting, 526 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 2: This financialization of everything to form a tradable asset out 527 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 2: of any difference in opinion, creating new addictive consumer habits. 528 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 2: These companies want to apply the logic of smartphone sports 529 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 2: betting to everything, where everyone gets to be their own 530 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 2: little Nate Silver while carrying around their own digital casino 531 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 2: in their pocket, getting addicted to gambling on speculation of 532 00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 2: world suffering, and CNN is complicit in this. CNN and 533 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 2: others have decided to partner with platforms that enable the 534 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 2: people who decide when to drop bombs around the world 535 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 2: to win millions of dollars by betting money on the 536 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 2: choices they themselves are making at the expense of the 537 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 2: rest of the world. And these companies think this is 538 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 2: a good thing because the betting odds can serve as 539 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,400 Speaker 2: a potential heads up that something is likely to happen. 540 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,360 Speaker 2: Simple consumer protections for users, which currently are non existent, 541 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 2: are just not enough. Congress needs to be far more 542 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 2: involved in regulating online betting, and in the case of 543 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,239 Speaker 2: political events, it should just be completely banned. It is 544 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:45,799 Speaker 2: detrimental to a healthy society. It incentivizes corruption, cruelty, and 545 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 2: erodes public trust. Gambling doesn't need to go away entirely, 546 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 2: when it should return to being time and location locked, 547 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 2: go to Las Vegas like a fucking adult. Currently, there 548 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 2: is no existing mechanism for individual states to regulate prediction markets. 549 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 2: Only the federal government can, and Trump's federal government certainly 550 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,720 Speaker 2: seems like it's not going to considering the president's sun 551 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:18,560 Speaker 2: works for both of the main platforms Kalshi and poly Market, 552 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 2: and while news companies are legitimizing this, these platforms are 553 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:28,399 Speaker 2: now working as their own news aggregators, specifically Polymarket's social 554 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 2: media account, which is acting as a news aggregation account 555 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,320 Speaker 2: because that drives traffic back to their website, where people 556 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 2: can bet on the news stories that poly market is sharing, 557 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 2: even if those news stories are speculative or completely made up. 558 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 2: On December fifth, Polymarket posted quote just in suspected J 559 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 2: six Pipe Bomber's legal council projected to argue he was 560 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 2: included in Trump's pardon of those involved in January sixth quote. 561 00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 2: This claim subsequently spread all around the parroted by people 562 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 2: of a variety of political orientations. But if you read closely, 563 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 2: the original post says suspected J six Pipe Bomber's legal 564 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:17,120 Speaker 2: council projected to argue he was included in Trump's pardon, 565 00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 2: Polymarket is just spreading gambling information as if it is 566 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 2: news content. Quote unquote projected just means that polymarket users 567 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:31,320 Speaker 2: are betting on this. But these projected posts are mixed 568 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,360 Speaker 2: in with other posts just aggregating the day's news. So 569 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 2: unless you are paying super close attention, which rarely people 570 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 2: on the Internet are. This becomes a trojan horse of disinformation. 571 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,040 Speaker 2: When news companies use the term projected on election night, 572 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 2: usually that indicates, with pretty clear mathematical certainty, that an 573 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 2: event is going to happen. When polymarket uses projected in 574 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 2: news tweets, it only indicates that Internet gamblers are swinging 575 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,560 Speaker 2: around money in an effort to create truth, with once 576 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:11,799 Speaker 2: legitimate news companies not just complicit but active participants in 577 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:15,719 Speaker 2: this process that isn't for us today at it could 578 00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:21,680 Speaker 2: happen here, see you on the other side. It could 579 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 2: happen here is a production of cool Zone Media. For 580 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,879 Speaker 2: more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website coolzonmedia 581 00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,720 Speaker 2: dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 582 00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,359 Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can 583 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,720 Speaker 2: now find sources for it could Happen here listed directly 584 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 2: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.