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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney.

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Speaker 3: Join us each day for.

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Speaker 2: Insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit

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Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our

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Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and.

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Speaker 3: Always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app Lots going on here

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Speaker 2: in particularly gold pretty through twenty three hundred.

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Speaker 3: What do you make it? Gold?

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Speaker 4: It's just an extraordinary here. I mean it's only three China.

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Speaker 3: I'm with Rebecca Patterson.

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Speaker 4: I mean Central Backs've been buying a gold channeis I

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Speaker 4: guess why.

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Speaker 2: We get a brief here into the blur of our

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Speaker 2: labor economy over Thursday and Friday. In the markets, equities, bonds, currencies, commodities,

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Speaker 2: Rebecca Pattison joins us for years with Bessemer Trust, with Bridgewater,

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Speaker 2: and now about thinking about these markets.

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Speaker 3: Rebecca Classic you in your note you speak of a need.

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Speaker 2: For immediate humility. How do we get humility in this market?

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Speaker 2: If you're Paul Sweeney and you bought Nvidia two years.

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Speaker 5: Ago, well, Paul, well done. We'll start off with that

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Speaker 5: right now. What I think we're seeing that's pretty interesting

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Speaker 5: is some broadening of global growth. Last year was all

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Speaker 5: about the US being the engine, and now with the

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Speaker 5: constant stimulus efforts by China, albeit focused on manufacturing, and

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Speaker 5: that's trickling into Europe, we're seeing some very small, I

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Speaker 5: don't want to overplay it, but green shoots in Europe.

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Speaker 5: Even German confidence data this week came out slightly better

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Speaker 5: than expected. And of course in the US we're seeing

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Speaker 5: a pickup in manufacturing at the margin. So when we

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Speaker 5: see a broadening, what it tells us is that we're

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Speaker 5: going to see some slight shifts in preferences among investors.

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Speaker 5: US consumers and investors will have more confidence taking overseas risk,

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Speaker 5: especially with a big valuation discount overseas versus the US.

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Speaker 5: We'll tend to see more cyclical assets do well, commodities,

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Speaker 5: small caps, will tend to see less liquid assets do well.

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Speaker 5: Emerging markets, and we often tend to see the dollar

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Speaker 5: go down in this environment as US capital goes overseas.

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Speaker 5: The question I have Tom Paul is does it last

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Speaker 5: and how big a move is this or is it

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Speaker 5: just incremental? And that's where the humility comes in. So

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Speaker 5: I still like having a lot of my capital in

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Speaker 5: US markets. I think the US economy is likely to

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Speaker 5: remain strong for some time. But I think if you

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Speaker 5: want to make a trade looking at a month or two,

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Speaker 5: take a little bit more risk overseas or in some

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Speaker 5: of these areas I just mentioned. This is the moment.

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Speaker 4: So, Rebecca, I'm just reading through your notes. I see

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Speaker 4: a lot of discussion of China. There are a lot

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Speaker 4: of investors out there. I think I'm speaking for them

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Speaker 4: when they say, I just don't know what to do

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Speaker 4: with China. Some people say it's uninvestable. Some folks say,

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Speaker 4: you know you have to be there because of the

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Speaker 4: size of the market. How do you think about it, Well, you.

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Speaker 5: Know, we have a huge amount of geopolitical risk unfortunately

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Speaker 5: today around China, and we don't know if that's going

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Speaker 5: to be status quo, get slightly better or get a

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Speaker 5: lot worse. After the election. If Trump is elected in November.

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Speaker 5: Based on what he's saying during the campaign and his advisors,

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Speaker 5: we could expect tougher trade relationships with China, and so

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Speaker 5: that geopolitical risk you can't write off. A lot of

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Speaker 5: that has to be discounted in market valuations. At this point.

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Speaker 5: We know Chinese stocks, even though they're off their lows,

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Speaker 5: are still cheap. We know there's stimulus partiction, particularly in

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Speaker 5: infrastructure and manufacturing. But again, is it a trade or

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Speaker 5: is it an investment given the geopolitical risk, I'd view

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Speaker 5: it as a trade if anything, And then you can

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Speaker 5: always go through proxies find companies around the world, sectors

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Speaker 5: around the world that will benefit from this without having

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Speaker 5: the exposure in the country. Oil is a great example.

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Speaker 5: Right now oil price is going up. Part of that

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Speaker 5: is demand from China.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I find the specific room demand there to be key. Rebecca.

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Speaker 2: I want to go all bust iner trust and you,

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Speaker 2: let's say you got a short term vision of three years.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of our people watching and listening

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Speaker 2: to us have that kind of perspective. And I got

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Speaker 2: to be in the markets, and I guess the basic

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Speaker 2: idea is their value in index, spread it out, capture

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Speaker 2: it all, even if it's some form of adjusted index

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Speaker 2: fund or is this where active management and stockpicking and

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Speaker 2: really trying to figure out free cash flow works out.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 5: What we've seen historically, Tom, is that when we're in

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Speaker 5: a period with liquidity being taken out of the market,

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Speaker 5: ie central banks tightening, quantitative tightening happening, that's when you

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Speaker 5: get more dispersion within securities, and so active management pays off.

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Speaker 5: What we saw in the last ten years this move

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Speaker 5: in passive, so passive assets actually larger than actively managed assets.

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Speaker 5: That's partly a function of zero interest rates, and I

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Speaker 5: think that environment is behind us and will be for

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Speaker 5: a while. So I think we're in a relatively better

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Speaker 5: world now and looking ahead, even if central banks cut

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Speaker 5: a little, we're still not going to go back to zero.

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Speaker 5: So I think we're in a relatively better place for

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Speaker 5: active At the same time, there are spaces US large cap, global,

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Speaker 5: large cap liquid government bond markets we're having. Some passive

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Speaker 5: exposure makes sense because the fees are so low. If

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Speaker 5: you can get your market beta, your market exposure cheaply,

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Speaker 5: and then you can complement that with active manage, pay

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Speaker 5: a higher fee, get take advantage of the dispersion that

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Speaker 5: we're seeing in the markets with rice liquidity and have

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Speaker 5: a barbell approach.

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Speaker 2: I think what's fascinating, or Paul, is the adjustment here

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Speaker 2: and the ten you're real yield two percent? Yep, that's

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Speaker 2: that's like we're where we were eighteen months ago.

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Speaker 3: Exactly right.

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Speaker 4: We got one more squeeze, one more Rebecca, just real

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Speaker 4: quick here, American exceptionalism we think about the economy, is

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Speaker 4: that the thing here for you?

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Speaker 5: It has been, it's going to continue to be. And

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Speaker 5: part of it, I think that doesn't get enough attention

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Speaker 5: is private equity.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 5: I know private equity isn't crushing it right now, but

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Speaker 5: the US is more than half of global private assets.

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Speaker 5: And we have an ecosystem that I think is going

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Speaker 5: to continue to support that that keeps capital coming into

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Speaker 5: our markets. You take that plus the depth of our

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Speaker 5: capital markets. You have our education system, you have a

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Speaker 5: culture that supports entrepreneurship and innovation. I think that allows

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Speaker 5: the US to continue to benefit, especially in technology, and

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Speaker 5: I think that can propel the exceptional I'm at the

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Speaker 5: margin as we look forward, it's ours to learn.

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Speaker 2: Yes, got to run, Rebecca Patterson, thank you for getting

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Speaker 2: us started strong. Rebecca Patterson, of course, formerly with Bridgewater Associates.

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Speaker 2: Markets are going to speak here in twelve minutes with

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Speaker 2: claims folding economics into what we see for rate strategy,

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Speaker 2: and Megan Swiber joins us right now with the Bank

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Speaker 2: of America is where let's just get the land of

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Speaker 2: Bank of America visualized.

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Speaker 3: Where's the ten year yield the end of this year?

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Speaker 1: You know, Tom, we don't really think it's going much

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Speaker 1: further down. We have it at four twenty five. So

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Speaker 1: even with a FED that's lining up to cut, we

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Speaker 1: still really don't think longer term rates are going to

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Speaker 1: rally all that much.

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Speaker 2: Folding claims. In the jobs report tomorrow, I'm sorry. I

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Speaker 2: see nominal GDP well over Michael Gabe, and nominal GDP

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Speaker 2: well over four percent, and I see numbers that say

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Speaker 2: there's fully employed America.

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Speaker 3: Is that how you see it?

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Speaker 1: That's how we're looking at it, Tom, And you have

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Speaker 1: a FED that's guiding the market to cut. But this

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Speaker 1: real question, and what Powell was alluding to yesterday, is

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Speaker 1: they really don't know the level that they're going to

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Speaker 1: cut rates too. A lot of questions around what that

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Speaker 1: neutral rate is. It's a really abstract concept, but it's

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Speaker 1: this idea that the Fed's hiped so much already and

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Speaker 1: we're really not seeing much of that cooling in economic activity,

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Speaker 1: seeing a lot of great progress on the inflation front.

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Speaker 1: So that's what's going to drive the cuts. But really,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, this could be a

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Speaker 1: very different cutting cycle than what we've seen in the

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Speaker 1: past when the FED is cutting to really ease conditions.

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Speaker 4: Well, given the FED, I mean, there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: cross currents out there. One of the big ones is

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Speaker 4: the labor market. We're going to get non We're going

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Speaker 4: to get job as claims today, non farm payrolls tomorrow.

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Speaker 4: How are you guys thinking about that?

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Speaker 1: So the labor market data is important, But really, at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, when we're listening to the FED,

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Speaker 1: they know that the labor market data has been really strong,

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Speaker 1: and so this question about when is it time for

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Speaker 1: the FED to cut really comes down to the inflation numbers. Recently,

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Speaker 1: these inflation numbers have not been great for them. They're

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Speaker 1: showing some signs of picking up, particularly in some of

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Speaker 1: these cyclical components. So that really is what we think

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Speaker 1: is going to weigh and move the needle more for

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Speaker 1: the FED than necessarily some of this labor market data.

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Speaker 4: Well, we started the year the WORP function on the

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg terminal is suggesting maybe as many as six rate cuts.

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Speaker 4: Now we're three or maybe even less than that. I know,

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Speaker 4: it's kind of lost a lot of credibility with some

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Speaker 4: people that were function. How do you get how many

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Speaker 4: ray cuts are we going to see this year?

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Speaker 1: Do you think so? House few would be of these

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Speaker 1: seventy five basis points of cuts. So we see the

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Speaker 1: Fed delivering that first twenty five basis point cut in June.

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Speaker 1: But here's the difficulty. If they're not able to go

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Speaker 1: by June, you get some questions around how close they

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Speaker 1: can really begin that cutting cycle around the election season,

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Speaker 1: and then you've also got base effects coming from from

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Speaker 1: even just core PCE into the second half of the year.

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Speaker 2: The lead guitar effects are as bad as well. Megan,

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Speaker 2: let me cut to the chase here, which is I

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Speaker 2: would say, no, nobody has a clue where we're going,

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Speaker 2: other than in the fixed income space. Is witnessed by

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Speaker 2: the real yield. We see a buoyant economy. Give us

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Speaker 2: a primer on what a two year real yield.

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Speaker 1: Signals ten year really yield is a nice investment opportunity

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Speaker 1: for a lot of different clients, especially when we're looking

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Speaker 1: at how much the equity market has rallied already. If

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Speaker 1: you're worried about, you know, some of these downside states

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Speaker 1: of the US economy, this is why people want to

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Speaker 1: be buying duration. They want to be buying US rates.

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Speaker 1: But the issue here again is that we're not seeing

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Speaker 1: this very meaningful cool down in the US economy, and

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Speaker 1: so rates are priced accordingly. We're having a lot of

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Speaker 1: inflows into fixed income. I mean, you just look at

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Speaker 1: like at ig high yield spreads.

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Speaker 3: A lot of demands Bank of America.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what we're seeing is very strong inflows into

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Speaker 1: fixed income funds across the board, and that's really helped

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Speaker 1: support this tremendous amount of treasury supply that we see

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Speaker 1: coming to the market, and also investment grade credit supply.

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Speaker 1: There's been a lot of demand to chase these higher yields.

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Speaker 1: The real question here is just how much are we

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Speaker 1: actually going to be able to see yields fall if

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Speaker 1: the US economy is staying so resilient.

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Speaker 4: When you and your colleagues at Bank of America, it's

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Speaker 4: Merrill Lynch in my mind, I'm sticking with it. Thank you, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: one of my employers, when you took me a great way.

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Speaker 2: Wait a minute, when you light up the major firms,

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Speaker 2: can we say you've worked for them all.

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Speaker 4: And unfortunate they've all gone out of business after I've left,

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Speaker 4: including Mery Lynch. So when you talk your hedge fund clients, sure,

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Speaker 4: are they buying treasuries or are they shorting treasuries?

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Speaker 1: It's a mix, it's a mix. So on the macro side, right,

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Speaker 1: you have investors who are taking on this year that well,

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Speaker 1: maybe the Fed is not going to be able to

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Speaker 1: cut it all this year, and that can really trigger

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Speaker 1: a lot of concerns for exactly where that very important

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Speaker 1: neutral rate is for fixed income. Is it two percent

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Speaker 1: real yield or is it something higher? And so that

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Speaker 1: really is a very big temperature check for whether or

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Speaker 1: not we can see yields continue to move higher. Is

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Speaker 1: going to be the neutral and when the Fed is

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Speaker 1: actually going to be.

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Speaker 3: Kind of they're at the Bank of America Palace. Okay,

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Speaker 3: they're having lunch. They got pizza out.

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Speaker 2: Samit a Supermanian. Megan Schweiber Gabin shows up with three

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Speaker 2: of his minions and all, and they're blah blah blah

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Speaker 2: blah blah, and Brian moynihan walks in and what I

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Speaker 2: know what Brian moynihan is going to say is, but

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Speaker 2: this is what we see in the real economs. What

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Speaker 2: do you forget about all the finance mumble jumble in

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Speaker 2: the Georgetown financial malarkey. When you with Brian moynihan look

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Speaker 2: at the real economy, don't you see a buoyant seed

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Speaker 2: that's just irrefutable.

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Speaker 1: We do see that in a lot of the data

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Speaker 1: that we look at, our card data for examples. Just

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Speaker 1: a fun part of my job is we get to

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Speaker 1: actually go out and meet a lot of our corporate

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Speaker 1: clients at be of a too.

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Speaker 3: They meet their story so strange.

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Speaker 1: Besides just the hedge fun folks, right, So you can

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Speaker 1: kind of get a good temperature check from that as well.

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Speaker 1: And really the story has been a story of resilience.

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Speaker 1: It's been a story of still needing to find people

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Speaker 1: to fill seats in the job market, and it's it

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Speaker 1: is quite strung.

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Speaker 2: I'll get none more in here, but the science here, Megan,

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Speaker 2: is I just mad. Nineteen hundred dollars for an economy

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Speaker 2: ticket to Europe, and he says the restaurants are packed.

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Speaker 4: What I love about Brian moynihan tom is when you

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Speaker 4: ask him in an interview, Hey Brian, where do you

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Speaker 4: think rates are going? What he says our rates people, Yes,

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Speaker 4: they're going to the economy is going well. Our economists say.

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Speaker 3: He isn't back at Bank of bost He's very good

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Speaker 3: at that.

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Speaker 4: So he always gives you guys all the props. So

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Speaker 4: Megan here, I mean, I think one of the concerns

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Speaker 4: for a lot of folks is people are saying this

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Speaker 4: FED is already behind the ball, inflation is whipped. They

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Speaker 4: should be cutting now. What do you say to those folks?

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Speaker 1: So the idea here is that a lot of the

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Speaker 1: improvement that we've seen from the inflation backdrop so far

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Speaker 1: has really been supply driven. It's been the story of

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Speaker 1: the improvement in goods inflation, which was the easy part

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Speaker 1: of the story. It was the part of the story

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Speaker 1: that the FED knew was going to be more transitory.

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Speaker 1: The big question for the FED, and what we'll see

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Speaker 1: in the upcoming data prints, is whether or not we

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Speaker 1: see more of this cooling and services. This is very

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Speaker 1: important for inflation to come in sustainably where they want

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Speaker 1: it to. So you know, certainly a lot of good

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Speaker 1: progress has been made. The big question is the confidence

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Speaker 1: and prediction around that staying where it is.

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Speaker 2: Thirty seconds, we're all watching Final four with Megan swiber

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Speaker 2: and somebody asks you, are you worried about the ballooning

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Speaker 2: interest expense of the United States of America?

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Speaker 3: Are you?

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Speaker 2: So?

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Speaker 1: This is actually a very big part of certainly how

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Speaker 1: we're thinking about deficits going forward. And this is really

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Speaker 1: where higher for longer can become a big problem for

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Speaker 1: the largest borrower in the world. If you're seeing rates

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Speaker 1: settle above a three to four percent handle, that's above

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Speaker 1: where we think the long run GDP growth is of

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Speaker 1: the US economy and can contribute to a lot of

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Speaker 1: these financing costs. So it's a concern, especially in an

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Speaker 1: environment where the head's not going to be able to

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Speaker 1: cut all that much.

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Speaker 3: Neature to come bring loin hand with you.

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Speaker 2: We just want to hear him say well, Megan Schweibers

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Speaker 2: says this exactly. Megan, thank you so much for the

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Speaker 2: Bank of America Director US rates A strategy Jillian Tessa,

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Speaker 2: shut up and read it. The book is simple, how

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Speaker 2: to Listen when Markets Speak, And in classic Larry McDonald form,

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Speaker 2: it's about yeah, the text, but also along the way

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Speaker 2: vignettes do this, don't do that, little appendices and that

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Speaker 2: that lead to thought provoking work. And that is a

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Speaker 2: hallmark of what Larry McDonald has done for years. Everything

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Speaker 2: is always interesting in the bear Trap Report.

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Speaker 3: And then last year he wrote let me get the

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Speaker 3: date out here.

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Speaker 2: I think it was in the summer of last year.

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Speaker 2: It was like an article in the New Statesman in London.

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Speaker 2: It was like ten thousand words, Lawrence McDonald, these are

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Speaker 2: the forces that are putting a constant bid under the market.

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Speaker 2: Every once in a while you write something that is

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Speaker 2: so prescient you just go, damn, I hate him. I

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Speaker 2: got to read these ten thousand words. Joining us now,

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Speaker 2: Lawrence McDonald, great to have.

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Speaker 3: You with us.

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Speaker 2: It's not that you nailed the bullmarket like your Dnni

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Speaker 2: or Akampora, but you said, there's this.

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Speaker 3: Wall of money out there.

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Speaker 2: How does that wall of money in your acclaimed essay,

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Speaker 2: how does it fold into how to Listen when market Speak?

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, Tommy, think about passive investing, right and

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Speaker 6: Jack bowlgels up in heaven, God bless him. But you know,

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Speaker 6: the vanguard origination of passive investing. Passive invest's starting with

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Speaker 6: the best of intentions, the best of intentions, but at

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Speaker 6: some point passive becomes a little bit more evil because

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Speaker 6: there's thirty five trillion, at least thirty five trillion time

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Speaker 6: to the index S and P. And so when you

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Speaker 6: have a stock like in Nvidia that's now become five

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Speaker 6: percent of the S and P five five percent, and

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Speaker 6: it's trading eighty percent above it's two undred day moving average. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 6: you know, the energy sector as a whole is only

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Speaker 6: three percent of.

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Speaker 2: The S ANDP.

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Speaker 6: And so what happens is at some point, too much

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Speaker 6: money is in passive investing. There's not a lot of

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Speaker 6: thinking behind that, and it gets very crowded in what

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Speaker 6: we call herdy in other words, right like a herd,

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Speaker 6: and it creates more distortions on the upside, and it

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Speaker 6: will create more distortions on the downside.

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Speaker 2: Okay, somebody like Cliff Astinus, who's smarter than me, you know,

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Speaker 2: they're basically apoplectic about the interior dynamics of the market.

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Speaker 2: Years ago with Lehman, this is what you did. And

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Speaker 2: my answer is when you wake up in the morning,

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Speaker 2: what does Larry McDonald apply from how to listen when

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Speaker 2: markets speak over? I just want to get to the

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Speaker 2: end of twenty twenty four. What's the dynamic you're using

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Speaker 2: right now, Larry to analyze this market.

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, as a former Lehmen trader, our first

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Speaker 6: book was a New York Times bestseller and it's done

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Speaker 6: pretty well. It's in about twelve languages. But I tell

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Speaker 6: my wife once a month, Tom, if we sell a

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Speaker 6: million books, we'll break break even on our Leman stock, right,

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Speaker 6: So in other words, you know, it's it's been a

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Speaker 6: long road. But the lesson from this book is that

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Speaker 6: the Lehman collapsed. The response to that was a four

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Speaker 6: trillion fiscal and monetary response, four trillion the response to

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Speaker 6: COVID So far it has been all in about sixteen

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Speaker 6: trillion fiscal and monetary. Fiscal and monetary response. So everybody's

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Speaker 6: in at twenty ten to twenty twenty portfolio. In other words,

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Speaker 6: everybody's in that kind of disinflation regime portfolio, which includes

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Speaker 6: a lot of growth stocks. It doesn't include any hard assets,

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Speaker 6: it's all financial assets. There's twenty two trillion TOM in

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Speaker 6: the Nasdaq one hundred twenty two trillion, and there's very

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Speaker 6: little money in real hard assets bitcoined overall. Most of

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Speaker 6: the money is in what we call financial assets. It's

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Speaker 6: bonds and growth stocks. But in an inflationary regime that

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Speaker 6: is sustainable, and that might just happen after a sixteen

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Speaker 6: trillion fiscal and monetary response, you probably need an entirely

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Speaker 6: different portfolio. A twenty twenty to twy thirty portfolio is

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Speaker 6: going to look a lot different, a lot different Tom

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Speaker 6: than a twenty.

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Speaker 4: Twentyfolio, exactly. So, Larry, the book's incidled how to listen

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Speaker 4: when markets speak? Boy, what are the markets telling us

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Speaker 4: right now?

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Speaker 6: Well, right now, we have a tremendous amount of capital

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Speaker 6: that's moved into certain spots, and volatility is low, and

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Speaker 6: there are opportunities really in if you look at not

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Speaker 6: just gold and silver, but look at aluminum.

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Speaker 3: Look at al.

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Speaker 6: CoA ol Co equity is moving I think about sixty

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Speaker 6: seventy percent off the lows, right, and that's from the

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Speaker 6: since the fourth quarter. And you've got oil and gas

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Speaker 6: companies making new highs in the XL. So I think,

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Speaker 6: what's happened with the market's telling us is that there's

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Speaker 6: a migration of capital that's starting. Capital is moving from

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Speaker 6: financial assets into hert assets. And if Powell is truly

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Speaker 6: on this dubbish crusade in an election year as to

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Speaker 6: lean a little bit dubbish relative to where inflation is,

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Speaker 6: then I think the market's telling us that you want

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Speaker 6: to start moving into you know, your aluminums, your coppers,

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Speaker 6: and your heart asset equities.

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Speaker 4: So Larry, I mean, I guess you know a lot

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Speaker 4: of folks were sitting here and we're looking at this

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Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred. Let's just take that

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Speaker 4: from October up about twenty five percent. Here is a

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Speaker 4: market ahead of itself. Here do we need to get

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Speaker 4: a little bit more cautious here?

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Speaker 6: Well as a whole the index. You know, what we

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Speaker 6: argue in the book is the everybody's four oh one

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Speaker 6: K in the United States has been hijacked by about

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Speaker 6: twelve companies, and everybody knows that. And it's nice when

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Speaker 6: it's rolling along, but it's more like it's more like

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Speaker 6: we're heading toward a transition. You know, I think the

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Speaker 6: market is clearly over valiant relatives too, Okay, you know,

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Speaker 6: in a sustained inflation regime and sustained inflation regine is

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Speaker 6: going to put on a lot of challenges to high valuations,

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Speaker 6: and it's going to also move money into different spots.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, I mean I would be very cautious here

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Speaker 6: relative to you know, when the street's falling over all

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Speaker 6: over themselves. To upgrade stocks, you typically typically want to

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Speaker 6: take the stuff, some equity off the table.

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Speaker 3: I want to get you back. We're out of time,

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Speaker 3: but I got thirty seconds. Really important.

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Speaker 2: How should our listeners and viewers use the financial media

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Speaker 2: you've been hyper critical? How should they use Bloomberg surveillance

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Speaker 2: and other enterprises like the Michael bar Show.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think you know overall the financial media, pay

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Speaker 6: attention every day, have passion in My goal with this

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Speaker 6: book When Markets Speak is you can get everything in

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Speaker 6: life that you want if you just help enough other

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Speaker 6: people get what they want. Pay attention, listen to Tom

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Speaker 6: Keen every morning. That gets you stronger and smarter, and

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Speaker 6: then make your allocations portly book.

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Speaker 2: It's Sarah, be sure we get young McDonald back again.

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Speaker 2: Lawrence McDonald, thank you so much. How to listen When

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Speaker 2: Markets Speaks?

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Speaker 3: Now I'll look at the front pages. What's making news

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Speaker 3: around the.

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Speaker 2: World Your daily roundup of today's headlines from major publications,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance, The Lisa Matteo Show.

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Speaker 3: It's brought to you by Interactive Brokers.

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Speaker 2: com slash bonds.

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Speaker 3: What do you have, Lisa?

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Speaker 7: All right, we're starting with X. This is the Musca's X.

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Speaker 7: Those blue check mark say come back to some I

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Speaker 7: keep saying Twitter, sorry, execcounts. It started last night. Okay,

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00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 7: so they gifted those premium subscriptions to the service that

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Speaker 7: comes with those blue check marks. So must post it

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00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 7: back in marks that it's gonna happen, and apparently last

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Speaker 7: night it did. Who gets these which that counts, yes,

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Speaker 7: with over twenty five hundred verified subscriber followers, so not

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Speaker 7: just a follower like Joe bow Blow from the Bronx

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00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 7: like you have to have verified subscriber followers, and then

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00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 7: it counts with over five thousand of those same followers

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Speaker 7: will get Premium plus for free.

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Speaker 4: Not everyone you know.

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Speaker 7: They're happy about it, don't you know. They don't want

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Speaker 7: followers to think that they're supporters of Musk. But I

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Speaker 7: do want to point out that mister Tom Keene does

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Speaker 7: have the blue check mank nice.

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Speaker 5: Of course he does.

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Speaker 2: I wake up this morning, the dogs are mental about

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Speaker 2: the wins her wins were having. And there's Olivier Blanchard,

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00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: the giant of French economics, and mit they gave Olivier

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Speaker 2: a blue check.

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Speaker 3: He's like, loan you know this?

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Speaker 2: And then I think Bradmo has one now, Joe Wisenthal so,

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Speaker 2: and we're waiting for Lisa.

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Speaker 1: I don't have.

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Speaker 6: Either.

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Speaker 3: It's a sign of desperation.

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Speaker 7: Well, they're trying to get those users, keep the popular ones,

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00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 7: you know, they still want people to you know, perform on.

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Speaker 3: The I'm not going to mince words, folks.

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00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 2: I would love to find a way to exit X

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Speaker 2: because of the garbage that's in my feet, the inappropriate stuff.

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Speaker 3: That's in my feet.

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Speaker 7: Have you joined threads?

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Speaker 4: I tried it for two days, as did everybody else.

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Speaker 2: It's like it was like a committee formed it. These

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00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 2: things have a real personality, like Lisa Matteo.

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Speaker 3: Who elon deserves a blue star next.

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Speaker 7: Okay, uh, this one is interesting. The Estate of Committee

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Speaker 7: and George Carlin, you know who died Back in two

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Speaker 7: thousand and eight, they yet filed the lawsuit against two

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Speaker 7: podcasters who were allegedly using AI to create a new

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Speaker 7: carl In comedy special that was released on YouTube. Well,

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Speaker 7: it turns out they reached an agreement to end the lawsuit.

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Speaker 7: The podcasters will remove that AI generated special. They're going

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Speaker 7: to stop using his image. His name is likeness unless

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Speaker 7: they get permission.

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Speaker 3: What do you think.

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Speaker 4: I think it's artificial intelligence, Tom, It's kind of one

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Speaker 4: of the risks to artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence can create

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Speaker 4: the video, the audio, everything, and so if you're a

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Speaker 4: content creator, think about the writers in the Hollywood you're

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Speaker 4: really concerned about that.

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Speaker 2: Keith Grossman called Keith Grossman folks Generateloomberg Surveillance and he

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Speaker 2: was hugely formative in what we do here and a

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Speaker 2: great advisor as well. Keith Grossman called me up and

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Speaker 2: he's doing his fake Tim Keen voice and he's.

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Speaker 3: Like, Tom, we don't need AI. We could just have

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Speaker 3: kids do it. I don't. This isn't going to be

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Speaker 3: out of control fast.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, And that's why this is a big thing because

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Speaker 7: it's advancing, like you know the AI deep fake technology laws,

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Speaker 7: so it's starting.

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Speaker 2: To do it.

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Speaker 3: So the car to state one, Yes.

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Speaker 7: They agreed to settle, so so yes, they reached an

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Speaker 7: agreement to end that lawsuit. So it's a step in

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Speaker 7: the right direction.

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Speaker 5: That's what.

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Speaker 4: Are you doing well, street journals.

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Speaker 7: So I don't know if either I had braces growing

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Speaker 7: up and I hated it, but.

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Speaker 4: Your teeth are teeth are amazing, thank you mom or dad.

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Speaker 7: Yes, but now the nerd look, it's cool again because

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00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 7: kids or gen z are getting fake braces, so they're

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Speaker 7: cosmetic braces. They buy them online, they apply them on

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Speaker 7: home with with scissors and glue. I'm sure their parents

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Speaker 7: are not thrilled about this. It's a trend on TikTok.

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Speaker 7: But apparently a lot of licensed dental professionals are installing

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Speaker 7: these fake braces. So they have pre made wires brackets.

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Speaker 7: They put them on your teeth with nail glue. It

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Speaker 7: doesn't sound right. I don't know how you get them off.

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Speaker 7: I didn't get to that point of it, but it's

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Speaker 7: this new trend going on, and I don't know, but

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Speaker 7: orthodonts are saying it's not good. The risk can include

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Speaker 7: tooth law, even gum recession.

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Speaker 3: This is nuts.

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Speaker 2: And there was one Orthodonis guy up in Massachusetts.

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Speaker 3: I bought him a new heayroo.

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Speaker 4: Yes exactly.

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Speaker 2: He put like fourteen more feet on the sailboat due

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Speaker 2: to the offspring's hurrizica.

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Speaker 7: My daughter six grand done none.

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Speaker 4: Thenwards you have the plastic thing after the retainers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're under the couch with the airba.

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Speaker 4: My nineteen year old just reached out to me and said,

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Speaker 4: can I get invisile lined? And my answer was no,

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Speaker 4: because I spent that six thousand dollars on the braces

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Speaker 4: and you did not wear the retainer when you're at

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Speaker 4: fifteen or sixteen when you should have. So now you're exactly,

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Speaker 4: we need to rent.

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Speaker 3: We need to rent the Irish guy to come over exactly. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: are you done or is there one? We got one

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Speaker 3: because it is landed.

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Speaker 7: No, this is a medical breakthrough.

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Speaker 4: Okay.

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Speaker 7: The patient you remember hearing about it, transplanted pig kidney.

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Speaker 7: He's headed home. He's been discharged from the hospital after surgery.

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Speaker 7: The doctors is at Massachusetts General Hospital. He's sixty two

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Speaker 7: years old. His name is Richard Slayman. He is working fine.

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Speaker 7: They say the kidney is producing urine, removing waste products,

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Speaker 7: delivering the body's fluid, so it's doing all the things

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Speaker 7: it's opposed to. The guy even says he left the

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Speaker 7: hospital with one of the cleanest bills of health he's

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Speaker 7: had in a long time.

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Speaker 4: Wow.

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Speaker 7: So there's you know, there's still no word if you know,

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Speaker 7: anything can go wrong after that, but it's this step

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Speaker 7: in the right direction of Wow. I mean, cross species

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Speaker 7: Oregon transplantation could become a thing.

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Speaker 4: We had Sam Fizzelli in studio yesterday Bloomberg Intelligence. Did

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Speaker 4: you Yeah, he does all the farmer stuff, and he

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Speaker 4: just said they're making amazing breakthroughs and cancer, drugs and dementia.

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Speaker 4: He's heading out to a conference in San Diego this

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Speaker 4: weekend where they have some major major breakthroughs in dimension

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Speaker 4: Alzheimer's and things like that. So he says the next

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Speaker 4: ten years are gonna be really, really big for medical breakthrough.

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Speaker 2: One night, we had the North Spring in MGH, and

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Speaker 2: to make a long story short, everything worked out fine

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Speaker 2: due to the wonderful people at the Massachusetts General Hospital

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Speaker 2: and as wandered around the halls.

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Speaker 3: At three am, board staff.

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Speaker 2: Everybody's finally sleeping, and I wandered into the pretty much

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Speaker 2: extent eighteen forty six ward where they first used ether,

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Speaker 2: and that was at MGH in America.

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Speaker 3: They were doing it in England and all.

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Speaker 2: That, but it was eighteen forty six was the first

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Speaker 2: public demonstration of what we all take for granted today.

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Speaker 2: It's really spiritual, mass channel, very cool what they're doing

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Speaker 2: up at MGH, and of course some of the other

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Speaker 2: great hospitals. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you

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00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.