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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go fifteen houndy twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty and the kickers

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Speaker 2: block Look college football World standards good bye, Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 2: he stumbled and football it's the lateral.

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Speaker 3: Turn, a counter on the job.

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Speaker 2: Get you the lad I'm not table off.

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Speaker 3: The fail to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fighting.

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Speaker 2: It's the side of the fight in the all.

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Speaker 3: What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 3: Campus Podcast. This is the Week four college football betting preview,

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Speaker 3: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm stucky and with

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Speaker 3: me as always Colin Wilson, I'm excited. This is a

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Speaker 3: week where I call it data week, test week. You know,

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Speaker 3: some of these teams haven't had a test. You'll start

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Speaker 3: to get a tat you know, you'll see, okay, let's

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Speaker 3: see them get tested this week. And then finally it's like, okay,

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Speaker 3: now we have like a month's work worth of data

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Speaker 3: to start, not relying on priors as much. So I

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Speaker 3: think we're gonna learn a lot this weekend. We have

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Speaker 3: a lot of games to get to this weekend. You

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Speaker 3: ready to roll cone, I am.

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Speaker 2: I'm here to pay up some bets thanks to my razorbacks.

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Speaker 2: But you know, more importantly, this schedule this week is

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Speaker 2: loaded with overlook spots, like we had a sandwich spot

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Speaker 2: with Arkansas Missouri State last week, overlooking the conference play.

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Speaker 2: A lot of teams fall into that this week. So

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Speaker 2: you know, and you're right, we finally have a month's

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Speaker 2: worth of data. Let's see if it plays out. We

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Speaker 2: should know these teams' identities by now, so let's see

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Speaker 2: how it plays out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Colin will be breaking down Texas A and m

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Speaker 3: Arkansas in a neck brace a lah Bobby Patrino. So

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Speaker 3: I'm really looking forward to that. But let's let's get

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Speaker 3: right into things. It's been much time to spare, and

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Speaker 3: let's start with a little Friday night lights. Let's hear a.

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Speaker 2: Gentlemen, clear eyes, full.

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Speaker 3: Hearts, let's go play, all right, So we have three

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Speaker 3: games on Friday Night. We'll go through these quickly. Virginia

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Speaker 3: at Syracuse Syracuse ten point favorite over under fifty four.

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Speaker 3: Virginia's just been a hot mess. I mean, they escaped

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Speaker 3: Old Dominion. They were absolutely blown out by Illinois. You know,

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Speaker 3: It's Brendan Armstrong and that's about it. The offensive line

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Speaker 3: lost everything. It's a mess. The offense is not doing much.

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Speaker 3: This is not your high flying Virginia offense that you

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Speaker 3: saw last year. One of those reasons is the offensive

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Speaker 3: coaching staff is now at Syracuse. Syracuse fresh off that

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Speaker 3: amazing comeback win and miraculous cover for us against Purdue.

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Speaker 3: It's been a bounce back season four Syracuse overall. Does

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Speaker 3: the coaching play into this? Does Virginia have a shot

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Speaker 3: to stay within ten? I was thinking that Syracuse is

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Speaker 3: gonna be a little bit overvalued after last week, A

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Speaker 3: little fortunate, but I'm not sure I can get behind

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Speaker 3: this Virginia team. Probably a pass for me. But what

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Speaker 3: are you seeing here? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: To me, this is a complete lean to the over.

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Speaker 2: The Syracuse offensive line has just been plowing holes or

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Speaker 2: sixth in line yards. The Virginia defense outside the top

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Speaker 2: one hundred in the same category. There's just not gonna

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Speaker 2: be any answers for Sean Tucker. He's gonna get his

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Speaker 2: hundred yards, he'll still be outside the This is the

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Speaker 2: you know, the orbit of the Heisman talk. But I

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Speaker 2: lean to the over here. Probably the play I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: make but this Virginia offense has been just a disaster.

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Speaker 3: Top two two. Yeah, all starts up front. But Syracuse

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Speaker 3: can go back to their old offense, just with Strader

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Speaker 3: and Tucker and running up and down the field, and

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Speaker 3: they should have success against Virginia. Second game on Friday night,

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Speaker 3: Nevada at air Force. Air Force twenty four point favorite

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Speaker 3: here forty six total, forty six. I look, I'm not

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Speaker 3: in the business of laying twenty four with the Service Academy,

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Speaker 3: especially one that I don't know the status A couple

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Speaker 3: of starters on offense one of the reasons they went

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Speaker 3: down to Wyoming last week. But I'm also not in

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Speaker 3: the business of betting on Nevada ever, and this is

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Speaker 3: a terrible spot for Nevada. There the run defense is

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Speaker 3: not any good. They played a seven and a half

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Speaker 3: hour game in Iowa on Saturday night. There to the

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Speaker 3: game until two two thirty east am Eastern. Now in

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Speaker 3: a short week, you have to travel to altitude with

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Speaker 3: less prep time for the trip. BATCHA. You can say

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Speaker 3: they play you know, air Force a lot, but this

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Speaker 3: is a brand new defense, like Bright there's a brand

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Speaker 3: new staff. It's so if I would only play air

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Speaker 3: Force in situation. But with the uncertainty surrounding who's playing

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Speaker 3: for air Force and the fact that if you go

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Speaker 3: back in time and look at service academies laying over

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Speaker 3: twenty one to anybody, I don't care if it's Fordham,

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Speaker 3: Little Sisters of the Poor or Nevada. They you know

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Speaker 3: it's doesn't go well. There's long, long possessions and all

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Speaker 3: it takes. It's just like one fubble here there, and

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Speaker 3: you're so lean under lean air Force probably stay away.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I project air Force twenty four. I make the total

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Speaker 2: forty seven, so it's right in line with the market,

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Speaker 2: and you're right Nevada. Three lightning delays in the second half.

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Speaker 2: Quarterback Nate Cox has been cleared for this game, and

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Speaker 2: air Force had thirty to forty. We didn't know this

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Speaker 2: last week going into Wyoming, thirty to forty players miss

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Speaker 2: practice with flu symptoms. Five of their best starters were

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Speaker 2: out for the game. A handful of players or that

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Speaker 2: missed Wyoming. They're gonna be back in this game. So

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Speaker 2: I want the under in this game. I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: The only hope is I'm not going to play any money.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna play anything pregame, and the only hope

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Speaker 2: is that air Force just comes out hair on fire,

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Speaker 2: lost last week, pissed off, gets a touchdown and then

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Speaker 2: a key number of fifty one forty nine something like

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Speaker 2: that pops up. Because I'm not buying under forty six

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Speaker 2: and a half or forty seven forty eight. I'll start

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Speaker 2: to consider. But let's hope air Force gets an initial touchdown.

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Speaker 2: I will be coming in to play an under at

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Speaker 2: that point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if I can, If I can ensure that all

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Speaker 3: those our Force guys are back, maybe I'll play our four.

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Speaker 3: So make sure you check out the Action NETWORKAP because

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Speaker 3: I'm in the business of hating Nevada every single week.

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Speaker 3: It's just it's gonna be a long season for Nevada.

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Speaker 3: But those those Service Academys, it's really tough to get

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Speaker 3: that type of information, like who's going to be out

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Speaker 3: there black boxes, they're not really well covered in the media.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's go on to the third and final

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Speaker 3: game on Friday night, Boise State at uep UTEP sixteen

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Speaker 3: point home dog here over under forty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're talking minor.

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Speaker 3: Nation out in the West Dickson town of a pastle

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Speaker 3: picks up Minor Nation. We are home, we are back.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to the well for the first time this year.

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Speaker 3: We're going Minors Baby get their first cover of the season.

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Speaker 3: They're one and three, zero and four against the spread.

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Speaker 3: Colin is showing the Minor Nation helmet, a beautiful helmet

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Speaker 3: right now. And if we can get this cover, we

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Speaker 3: can hear from our guy, our friend, and Minor Nation.

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Speaker 3: We can all eat some and joyce and pizza over

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Speaker 3: the weekend for the first time on the voicemails nine

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Speaker 3: to five to nine. Bad beat, by the way, call

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Speaker 3: over the weekend for whatever you want to call about.

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Speaker 3: But I just think this number is too high. Not

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Speaker 3: a great spot for Boise. Short week going to UTEP.

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Speaker 3: You got San Diego State start a conference play on

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Speaker 3: deck and it's a large number for an inft offense

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Speaker 3: to cover. And this offense, the Boys State offense has

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Speaker 3: been a mess. The quarterback play has been inconsistent. Hank

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Speaker 3: bachmy are also left last week's game with an injury.

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna play, but something to note. Their

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Speaker 3: offensive line has been a disaster. The receivers cannot get

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Speaker 3: any separation. They really miss Shakir who's done with the Bills.

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Speaker 3: And you know Ute's offense is a snail. We know that,

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Speaker 3: and they're also awful. Last year they were one of

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Speaker 3: the most inefficient offenses in college football. They still won

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Speaker 3: seven games because of explosiveness. Hard to repeat. And you

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Speaker 3: no longer have Jacob Cowing, who's now with Arizona. He

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Speaker 3: was really their entire offense. Defensively, both of these teams

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Speaker 3: have been stronger upfront. Boise State's linebackers and defensive line

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Speaker 3: have been really good. Boys. You can't really throw the ball.

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Speaker 3: And Tim Plout the offensive coordinator, and he's getting a

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Speaker 3: lot of heat and Boise for his play calling. He

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Speaker 3: came out earlier this week and said, look, we want

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Speaker 3: to huddle up more, we want to run the ball,

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Speaker 3: we want to become a more methodical offense. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: they're not really I don't think they're going to test

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Speaker 3: UTEP's secondary as much as some teams can. Now you

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Speaker 3: have to hope you UTEP doesn't turn it over a

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Speaker 3: million times. You throw the over six times last year

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Speaker 3: and give a punt return touchdown and got blown out

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Speaker 3: at Boise Last week they got blown out by New Mexico.

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Speaker 3: They had seven turnovers, including a pick six. Can't do that.

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Speaker 3: The way you TEP is really close to this game

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Speaker 3: is if they hit some of the explosive pass plays

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Speaker 3: which Boise is given up. And I think they'll likely

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Speaker 3: be without two starters in the secondary who got hurt

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Speaker 3: last week and against an FCS opponent one of them

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Speaker 3: got carted off, so there might be some opportunities for

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Speaker 3: Garrett Hardison to hit you know, a couple explosive passing

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Speaker 3: plays here. But I like this under. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: play the under small, especially now with Boise saying they

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Speaker 3: just want to run it and go in the huddle

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Speaker 3: more catching. Sixteen at home and a game that I

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Speaker 3: think is to be extremely slow and low scoring. In

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Speaker 3: a good spot for a minor Nation off of a

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Speaker 3: bad loss. I'll take UTEP plus sixteen baby Minor Nation.

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Speaker 2: I project Boise at sixteen. I project a total of

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Speaker 2: forty one and a half. So really, from a numbers perspective,

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Speaker 2: this thing has still got some meat on the bone.

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Speaker 2: From a totals like, I completely expecting this to go under,

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Speaker 2: even after the steam that's hit it this week. Opener

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Speaker 2: of forty nine and a half all the way down

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Speaker 2: to forty five and a half and UTEP took you know,

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Speaker 2: sharp money on Sunday on opener Monday, so that's definitely

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Speaker 2: going to be the side. But both of these offense

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Speaker 2: have just been lifeless and scoring position. That's why I

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Speaker 2: like the underbetter. No like UTEP because Boise's one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirteenth in pace. They want to be slower. They've

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Speaker 2: only had sixteen drives go past the forty yard line

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Speaker 2: when UTEP and their twenty two trips past the forty

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Speaker 2: yard line, they've averaged two point two points. That's not

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Speaker 2: a lot. You got to give the Boise defense some credit.

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Speaker 2: It's a tougher buy for me on UTEP I get

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Speaker 2: I can get into the under. I would like another point,

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Speaker 2: maybe seventeen on UTUB before I consider buying them. But

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Speaker 2: that's the side Minor Nation.

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Speaker 3: Baby. All right, let's move on to the games everyone

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Speaker 3: came here to talk about.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups. We'll all end up bedding for Week four.

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Speaker 3: And we'll lead things off with the segment everybody wants

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Speaker 3: to see. That is Arkansas against Texas A and M

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Speaker 3: on a neutral field as always text A and I'm

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Speaker 3: two point favorite here over under forty nine. Colin, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna throw this to you and your neck brace that

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Speaker 3: I sent you and break this one down. Woo pig sue,

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Speaker 3: absolute dumpster fined up.

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Speaker 2: Fine.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how we win a game the rest

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Speaker 3: of the year.

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Speaker 2: Just flow a program up, give us a death sentence.

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Speaker 1: Colin's talking razorback football.

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Speaker 2: Well, first, I would like to say thank you to

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Speaker 2: Sam Pittman for being out coached and underprepared. Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Probably the greatest moment my video podcasting life is going

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Speaker 2: to be wearing a Bobby Petrino neck brace. No volleyball

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Speaker 2: player Harley to go with it. I should be doing

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Speaker 2: the podcast with one of some of those. All right,

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Speaker 2: saw Texas, A and M. I project this game as

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Speaker 2: a pick total in the high fifties. That's well over.

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Speaker 2: This thing is so tight. I don't know how he

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Speaker 2: wore this through that old interview and just bsd everybody

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Speaker 2: and kept his job through Jeff Long. All Right, So

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Speaker 2: the total I've got projected in the high fifties, so

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Speaker 2: I've already took an over in the action app I

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Speaker 2: took Texas A and M in the middle of this week,

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Speaker 2: and really, let's look at this Arkansas defensive back seven.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Missouri State was able to have explosive plays,

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Speaker 2: poor tackling. They're now outside the top one hundred and

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Speaker 2: coverage grading. They are going to get Miles Slusher back.

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Speaker 2: He's practicing this week. I don't think it matters stuck.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Slusher being back is enough for this defense.

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Speaker 2: The tackle grading is one hundred and twenty fourth in

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Speaker 2: the nation. Missouri State wide receivers looked like a pinball,

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Speaker 2: just bouncing off little bumpers and going on their way

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Speaker 2: down the field. I think the biggest misconceived thing I've

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Speaker 2: read and everybody that's covered this game is that Arkansas

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Speaker 2: is number one in the nation in sacks. That is true,

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Speaker 2: seventeen total, but guess what. Fourteen of them came against

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Speaker 2: an FCS offensive line and South Carolina, who I am

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Speaker 2: now saying is not the worst trench in the SEC,

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Speaker 2: maybe the worst trench in Power five. So you know,

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Speaker 2: you get those seventeen sacks. They only had three against Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the pass rush is as great as

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Speaker 2: everybody is saying, and you know, the offense was bailed

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Speaker 2: out by Raheem Sanders against Missouri State, and I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure that the Hogs have any other options. This whole

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Speaker 2: stable of four running backs. AJ Green's on the back

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Speaker 2: of a milk carton. Haven't seen him all year. Dominique

256
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Speaker 2: Johnson dressed last week, is cleared to play, but he's

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Speaker 2: not coming back until his offseason knee injury is right.

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Speaker 2: So you're essentially looking at the kJ Jefferson and Raheem

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Speaker 2: Sanders show, and Texas A and M is going to

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Speaker 2: you know, probably don't have a problem keying on those

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Speaker 2: two and forcing kJ into long passing downs, which he

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Speaker 2: hasn't had to really do yet this year. You go

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Speaker 2: over to the Texas A and M offensive side of

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Speaker 2: the ball. I think there's something hidden about Max Johnson

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Speaker 2: that nobody's talking about.

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Speaker 3: Why is he.

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Speaker 2: Better for the Texas A and M offense over Haines

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Speaker 2: King can't believe I'm doing this with a neck brace

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Speaker 2: on because I think about this Max Johnson, I said

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Speaker 2: last week, He's been an SEC offense, He's been behind

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Speaker 2: a terrible offensive line. He knows how to handle pressure.

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Speaker 2: He didn't have any turnovers last week. But more importantly,

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Speaker 2: the worst offensive lineman on Texas A and M's line

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Speaker 2: is the left tackle. Generally the blind side tackle. Trey

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Speaker 2: Zoon has allowed twenty two pressures over the last two games.

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Speaker 2: Guess what, Max Johnson is a lefty that is not

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Speaker 2: a blind side tackle anymore. And I think it's a

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Speaker 2: huge benefit for that offensive line that Max Johnson can

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Speaker 2: see that edge defender coming. Not that I think that

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Speaker 2: Arkansas can apply any pressure here, but the fact that

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Speaker 2: the Razorbacks are one hundred and twenty fourth and tackling

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Speaker 2: and their coverage has gone down the shitter. I think

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Speaker 2: Devin A Shane and Nia Smith are going to get

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Speaker 2: the ball, and I think they're going to have explosive plays,

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Speaker 2: and that's going to be the difference in this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, by the way, you might get abandoned by Hognason

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00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,840
Speaker 3: and little Pig suy for in dressed as Petrino couting

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Speaker 3: Texas A and M again Sarkoza, but I agree, I'll

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Speaker 3: be on Texas A and M here when I look

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Speaker 3: at that when Arkansas is the ball, the strength of

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Speaker 3: Texas and M's team is their defense. I don't think

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Speaker 3: Arkansas is going to have too much success moving the ball.

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Speaker 3: They're going to really miss Trail and Burks here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: if you look at some of their scores. Yeah, they

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Speaker 3: eventually got going against Missouri State. They put up a

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Speaker 3: million points on South Carolina. Do you know by the

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Speaker 3: end of that game, South Carolina was missing They're starting

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Speaker 3: outside linebacker Jordan Strackord, starting middle linebacker Mohamed Kama, starting

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Speaker 3: safety Devanni Reed, starting safety r J. Rodders, starting cornerback,

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00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,120
Speaker 3: Darius Rush, starting cornerback Camp Smith starting out of the

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Speaker 3: linebacker Stone Blanton, starting defensive tackle Alex Huntley. Not all

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Speaker 3: the injuries happened in that case someone that weren't playing.

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Speaker 3: By the way, South Carolina might be without all of

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Speaker 3: those guys this week eight starters. The defense is just

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Speaker 3: completely radish. So I don't think Parkson's gonna have too

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00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:18,520
Speaker 3: much success moving the ball, and then when I look

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Speaker 3: at the other side of the ball that it's okay.

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Speaker 3: I don't trust the tech Sandum offense, and I don't

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Speaker 3: trust the Arkansas defense. We saw South Carolina put up

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Speaker 3: thirty on them. We saw Missouri State go up seventy

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Speaker 3: to nothing. We saw Cincinnati as soon as cattle On

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00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,600
Speaker 3: went out, just exposive plays, exposed to plays. So Tech

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Speaker 3: Sandam's offense, while limited and I hate it, has is

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00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,400
Speaker 3: right on par with those heats. Not talking about Georgia

315
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 3: and Alabama. So I think they're going to hit some

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Speaker 3: explosive plays, even on third downs. I think they might

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Speaker 3: have some success running the ball. It's not going to

318
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 3: be easy, but I think that this line should be

319
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,200
Speaker 3: three or above. And I think Arkansas is getting too

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Speaker 3: much love for kind of a you know, I don't

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Speaker 3: know if you can start, but it's flawed if you

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Speaker 3: really dig into it. And then they've had some injuries

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Speaker 3: and the Tech saying is getting too much hate for

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Speaker 3: the app state loss. So yeah, I agree. Gig them

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Speaker 3: be fulfilled. Yeah, bet fulfilled.

326
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Speaker 2: Oh my god, Kendall Briles, you got one coming to

327
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Speaker 2: you man. You have to pay for making me wear

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Speaker 2: a neck brazener on my podcast. All right, let's go.

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Speaker 3: I should we should bet it again if Arkansas. If

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Speaker 3: Arkansas ends up winning this game, I should make you

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Speaker 3: do something else because I'll be on them, so we'll

332
00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,120
Speaker 3: both be on Texas A and M this weekend. So

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00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,200
Speaker 3: I agree with you there. All right, let's move on

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Speaker 3: to our second marquee game of the day, but before

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Speaker 3: we do, I just want to give heads up to

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Speaker 3: our listeners. Actually is a new live show called green

337
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,880
Speaker 3: Dot Daily Quick round Up of the day's betting that

338
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,920
Speaker 3: airs every weekday at noon Eastern on the Action app

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Speaker 3: and our social channels. You'll see Colin and I on

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00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 3: there Calm Today, I do it on Fridays, Chris raybaon

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00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 3: Our whole team really swings by to give their daily

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00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 3: picks and thoughts on the card. Just launch the podcast

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Speaker 3: version of the show. Do shows every weekday afternoon go

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00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 3: up around one o'clock, So be sure to subscribe to

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00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 3: the green Dot Daily podcast to fill all of your

346
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 3: daily betting needs. Presented by our friends at bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the second marquee game

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Speaker 3: of the day, Clemson at wake Forest Wake Forest seven

349
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Speaker 3: and a half point Home Dog here, total fifty six.

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Speaker 3: This game's at noon on ABC. By the way, textan

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Speaker 3: and markets all seven Eastern in primetime on ESPN Wake

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Speaker 3: Forest Home Dog Here, it's they escaped Liberty. Sam Hartman

353
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,000
Speaker 3: is back at quarterback. But there's some I'm having a

354
00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,919
Speaker 3: hard time breaking this game down because there's some worrying

355
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 3: signs with wake Forest. They number one, they can't run

356
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Speaker 3: the ball lick. I don't know if Sam Hartman is

357
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 3: fully healthy, but the offensive line that's supposed to be

358
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 3: a strength hasn't necessarily been and we know the defense

359
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:46,680
Speaker 3: isn't good. So but my biggest fear here is because

360
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 3: of some of the offensive line struggles we've seen Clemson

361
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 3: in the past. In the past, if you'd go back

362
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 3: to last year when Sam Harmon he's gonna take the handoff,

363
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 3: and the whole origin of their offenses there's you know,

364
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 3: he's going to fake the handoff and it's a delayed

365
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 3: mesh point and he says, okay, let me pull it

366
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:05,880
Speaker 3: based on what the defense does, or I'm gonna hand

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00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,879
Speaker 3: it off or I'm gonna take it. And Clemson in

368
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 3: the past has just blown it up and there's no

369
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 3: time to read anything that's going on. There's no time

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00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:18,399
Speaker 3: to pull it and throw it, and everything just gets discombobulated. Now,

371
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 3: if that doesn't happen, I think that wake Forest can

372
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 3: have some success throwing the ball against this Clemson secondary,

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00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,639
Speaker 3: which and look, the Clemson gave up some of the

374
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 3: yards more yards and I thought that Georgia Tech Furman

375
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 3: had some success moving the ball against them, and I

376
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 3: still don't buy this Clemson offense. So but it's the

377
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 3: Wake farest defense. Clemson has owned this series, by the way.

378
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 3: Last time Wake Forest won outright two thousand and eight,

379
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 3: I think that was probably C. J. Spiller, Riley Skinner

380
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 3: maybe for Wake Cars. So yeah, I'm having a hard

381
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,400
Speaker 3: time breaking this one down. It's not a great matchup

382
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 3: for Wake, but I don't know if I can trust

383
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 3: this Clemson offense to lay over a touchdown. So help

384
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 3: help me out here, what do you say?

385
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 2: I am having a hard time making a case for

386
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 2: Wake just like you, because the market is screaming Wake right.

387
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 2: A lot of people will just you know, take a

388
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 2: stance on a game and they will only give you

389
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 2: a narrative that fills that team. I could sit here

390
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:23,640
Speaker 2: and tell you a billion things about Clemson, but I'm

391
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: telling you that the market is screaming that Wake is

392
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,680
Speaker 2: going to cover this game and it's going to go under.

393
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 2: And the problem where I get hung up stuck is

394
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 2: the fact that the series has been within twenty points

395
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 2: just one time since twenty fifteen, which was a fourteen

396
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 2: point win by Clemson in twenty seventeen. This is going

397
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 2: to come down to Clemson running the ball. DJU is

398
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: getting like eight to ten designed carries per game, and

399
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: Wake is not gonna be able to do anything about

400
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 2: that because they're a much better pass defense and they

401
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 2: are a rush defense. So I understand like the market

402
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 2: is screaming Wake, but I am just not seeing it.

403
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,199
Speaker 2: I'm saying away, I do want the under in this,

404
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 2: but I I just can't buy Wake at seven even

405
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: at seven half, I'm not even tempted. Then maybe you

406
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,159
Speaker 2: maybe you maybe something live. I don't know, not me.

407
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 3: I don't hate the under. If I had to bet

408
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 3: right now, I would take the under because if I

409
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 3: had to project how this goes, maybe a first half under,

410
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 3: because I imagine that Clemson's defense will be ready for

411
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 3: the Wake offense. They're gonna shut it down. Clemson. I

412
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 3: think that they're going to come out a little conservative,

413
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 3: rely on the run. Clock will be moving. I think

414
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 3: a lot of success moving the ball on the ground too.

415
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 3: Move the clock, and then if Wake it's far behind,

416
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 3: you're going to see them just start chucking. If Wake

417
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 3: gets ahead, it'll force Clemson to start chucking so I

418
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 3: think that this will start out a little slower. So

419
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 3: I think maybe a first half under is a look

420
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 3: there by the.

421
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 2: Way, project the under at sixty, project the under at

422
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 2: below the fifty five and a half right now, So

423
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 2: you know, I do think now is the time to buy.

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00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I might go first half under. I might talk

425
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 3: myself into it. And you see, these weight games a

426
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 3: lot of times just blow up late. All right, Let's

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Speaker 3: move on to our third marquee game of the day,

428
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 3: Kansas State at Oklahoma. Oklahoma is laying twelve and a

429
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 3: half over under fifty three and a half. These two

430
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 3: teams coming off completely different weeks. Kansas State, maybe they

431
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 3: got caught looking ahead a little bit, but we love

432
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 3: this tou lane team. They lost outright at home to Tulane,

433
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 3: while Oklahoma destroyed Nebraska much to mine, to pleasure, displeasure.

434
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 3: And you know, if you look back historically over the

435
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 3: past few years, Kansas State always a big dog against Oklahoma,

436
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 3: sometimes wins outright, always scares them. And you know, so

437
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 3: when I start looking at this game, my first initial

438
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: lean is to Kansas State. I was waiting on fourteen.

439
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 3: It's never going to get there. I'll probably still end

440
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 3: up playing them from a numbers perspective. Look, their defense

441
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 3: will be ready. But I'm worried about because and I

442
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 3: still a questions about the Oklahoma offense. Right, Like Oklahoma's

443
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 3: offense Dylan Gabriel has looked good, but he's played nobody.

444
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: And you know, when you consider against Kent State, they

445
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 3: didn't do much the whole first half. Against UTEP, they're

446
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: a little struggle at times, wasn't as pretty as you

447
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 3: would have liked to say, and then they destroyed Nebraska.

448
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 3: But and we thought Nebraska's defense is going to be

449
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 3: up and emotionally and ready for it. But we talked

450
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: about how much Nebraska's defense thinks Nebraska's defense got shredded

451
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 3: by Georgia Southern, they got shredded by Northwestern. Right, So

452
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,159
Speaker 3: I don't I don't want to just go in and

453
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 3: say this Oklahoma offense is now juggernaut. I still have

454
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 3: some questions about it. But my primary question here, which

455
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 3: is given me a little pause, the numbers plays played

456
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 3: Kansas State. Here the spots is played Kansas State is

457
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 3: Kansas State cannot throw the ball. They are not throwing

458
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 3: the ball deep. We've talked about this multiple over multiple weeks.

459
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 3: They're not attempting any passes deep Adrian Martinez is like,

460
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 3: they're just saying to be the game manager, hand the

461
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 3: ball off to Deuce faw On, one of the best backs

462
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: in the country. Now, Venibles knows this. Oklahoma has some

463
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 3: dudes up front. So if Kansas State is not gonna

464
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 3: take shots, now, the hypothesis is they've blet a couple

465
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: of teams and then they were at a war with Tulane.

466
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 3: Let's not have Martinez make mistakes. Let's not show anything

467
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 3: before Oklahoma. But like, you gotta go out and win

468
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: the game against Tulayne, and they still didn't show. They

469
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 3: weren't throwing the ball down the field, and so I'm

470
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 3: concerned about what is this Kansas State offense gonna look

471
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 3: like it to be concerned about Adrian martinez turnovers too,

472
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 3: So maybe there's a reason for it that they weren't

473
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 3: even attempting passes. Like the yards per attempt are pathetic,

474
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 3: the total pass guards are pathetic, and it really cost

475
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: them a game against the things they found themselves in

476
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 3: a war. So I think they end up covering this game.

477
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: But it's really I'm a little bit hesitant thinking about Okay,

478
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: what is this Kansas State offensive game plan here? And

479
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 3: if they're just gonna try to hand it off and

480
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 3: never throw it on the field, Okaoma's defense will shut

481
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 3: them down. What are your thoughts here? I know you

482
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: love Kansas State, emof baby.

483
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 2: I think Kansas State can beat them out right. I mean,

484
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 2: despite the loss to Tulane, this sets up real nicely

485
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 2: for the camp for Kansas State. From an advanced stat perspective,

486
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 2: Kansas State's offense is top twenty five in line yards,

487
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 2: you know, and coach Climban indicated this week that Adrian

488
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 2: Martinez is going to take more initiative and running and throwing.

489
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 2: They're going to open up the playbook for Adrian Martinez. Now,

490
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: that could go really well.

491
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 3: Oh they fucking better.

492
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that could go really bad. It could go really well.

493
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 2: But I think the key metric here when I said,

494
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 2: the advanced stats lineup nicely. Oklahoma is one hundred and

495
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: tenth in defensive line yards. This is a Kansas State offense.

496
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 2: It likes to run twenty one. They're gonna put deuce

497
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 2: a fullback Adrian Martinez. They're going to run some a

498
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 2: real heavy rush. And the fact that Oklahoma is also

499
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 2: seventy first and defensive rushing success rate on a schedule

500
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 2: against UTEP Kent Nebraska. I mean, it's embarrassing to have

501
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 2: those kind of numbers. Now you look at the other

502
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 2: side of the ball. On Gabriel was looking heisman esque

503
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 2: against Nebraska's defense, I'm not. I think almost anybody could

504
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 2: right now. And the Kansas State defensive line is gonna

505
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: give Dylan Gabriel his first dose of pressure as a sooner.

506
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 2: We have not seen that yet for Gabriel whatsoever. And

507
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 2: when we saw him get pressure for Central Florida, he's

508
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 2: prone to turnovers. So I think we're gonna see a

509
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: lot of that too, because this Kansas State defensive line

510
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: is legit when it comes to applying pressure. So I

511
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 2: expect Kansas State to slow this way down twenty nine

512
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: seconds per play if they're back seven can tackle at all.

513
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 2: I think Kansas State absolutely could win this game out right.

514
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 2: I do not believe in this Oklahoma defense at all. Yeah,

515
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: Bartina is going to do something, is my point. I mean, yeah,

516
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: the lineyards are concerning, but it doesn't matter.

517
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: If you're not gonna throw it downfield, you just bring

518
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: your safeties up and okay, like so, yeah, they do

519
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 3: have to oh they have to open it up here.

520
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 3: But this coaching staff has had a ton of success

521
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 3: against Oklahoma. Back at twenty nineteen, they beat Oklahoma as

522
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 3: the number five team in the country. They beat him

523
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 3: again in twenty two, then last year they lost by

524
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: what seven? But I grew out. I'll be on candastate

525
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 3: with you. We're in a dead range right now. I'll

526
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 3: be on it at twelve twelve and a half anyway,

527
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 3: but there's no point in rushing right now out of

528
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: line of twelve and a half. But I'll keep my

529
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 3: eye out of the market. All right, Let's move on

530
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 3: to our final marquee game of the day, and I'm

531
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: sure this breakdown will be accepted by everyone in the

532
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 3: Southern California region. USC at Oregon State, Oregon State, sitting

533
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 3: at it on a six six and a half when

534
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 3: a dog over under seventeen and a half, nine thirty pm,

535
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 3: Eastern PAC twelve network. I have a bunch of people

536
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 3: coming into town. My basement set up is all set

537
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 3: up now and I actually have PAC twelve networks. So

538
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 3: if you're in Lexington, come on over and watch the game.

539
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 3: They'll be out of the bar. So maybe I'll go

540
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 3: to the direct before.

541
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: The shout out to Direct TV not having pack twelve networks,

542
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 2: so I have to stream it, you know, throw it

543
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 2: on the TV. It's such a hassle.

544
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, if you feel like making a trip to Lexington,

545
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 3: come on over. By the way, totals in the seven

546
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: these unders have been We talked about this and then

547
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 3: USC Fresno game. Although Frezo should have scored about thirty

548
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 3: five more points, unders have been very kind to betters

549
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: in Totals in the seventies really hard. You just have

550
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 3: to have a lot of things to go right, and

551
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 3: you also have to have the game stay relatively close.

552
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 3: But I love Oregon State here. I think that this

553
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: line should be as of right now about a field

554
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 3: goal lower. We're going to rehash a lot of the

555
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 3: things that we've already talked about. But this USC defense

556
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 3: has major problems across the board. Teams are going up

557
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 3: and down the field against them. I mean, I feel

558
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 3: like a broken record, and USC is either getting turnovers,

559
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 3: stops inside the five, you know, the other team's quarterback

560
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 3: goes down. All these things that you would expect to

561
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 3: normalize over time. Oregon State, one of the best offensive

562
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 3: lines in the country, should be able to just get

563
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 3: I mean they should be able to just move the

564
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 3: ball on the ground, up and down the field, control

565
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 3: the clock on the other side of the ball. I

566
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 3: like their secondary I get many stops. Probably not. This

567
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 3: USC offense is awesome. I mean, like you have, there's

568
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 3: just so much talent all over at quarterback, at wide receiver,

569
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 3: like they can. It's Lincoln Riley offense. You know they

570
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 3: can run the ball and you know it's gonna be

571
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: well schemed. So they're really tough to defend. But I

572
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 3: think Oregon State can keep up. And also, how does

573
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 3: Oregon State get some stops? Well, yeah, does anyone ever

574
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 3: think that maybe USC doesn't convert in the red zone?

575
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: USC turns it over a couple of times, things that

576
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 3: are probably overdue. But this will be the best defense

577
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 3: that USC has faced by far. So you just need

578
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 3: a couple of stops. So I think Oregon State can

579
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 3: keep up. I'm not going to sit here and say

580
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: they're going to hold down this offense, which might be

581
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: on par with it might be by the end of

582
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 3: the year, might be right now the best in the country,

583
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 3: but I just think this is too many points for

584
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 3: Oregon State in the home hype spot, USC has had

585
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 3: every break possible go their way. I mean, we're talking Stanford.

586
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 3: They don't turn it over inside the five twice. Chance

587
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 3: when Fresno State, I don't know how many they couldn't

588
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 3: even cover twenty one and a half live for me,

589
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 3: gets stopped with the one. I don't know how many

590
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 3: times their backup quarterback went up and down the field.

591
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 3: I don't Fresnos's settling for a field goals at the five.

592
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: I don't think Oregon State's gonna settle for field goals.

593
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: I think Oregon State is gonna be able to move

594
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: the ball up and down the field. They're gonna get

595
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 3: pushed on the offensive line. USC is gonna match them.

596
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: But I'm catching six six and a half. I took

597
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: it at six six and a half. I'll wait to

598
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: see if it's seven pops. Take it again. I'll probably

599
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 3: have the money line in a round robin. And then,

600
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 3: by the way, if it seven never pops. This gave

601
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: the total seventy and a half, and I don't think

602
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 3: there's gonna be any stops, so there's probably gonna be

603
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 3: an opportunity that you can get one of these teams

604
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 3: that I could get Oregon State at higher than seven.

605
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 3: All that they do is lose the toss and or

606
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 3: win the toss. USC starts with the ball in scores

607
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: and then boom, I have over seven. So I love

608
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 3: the viavers here. I think they win out right.

609
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, USC early in the running for horseshoe up the

610
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 2: ass Award, an award that South Carolina won last year

611
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 2: with all the wins they had to get the bull season.

612
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 2: There are rumors circulating there's smoke out there, haven't found

613
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: the fire yet about what Caleb Williams, what is mobility

614
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: is going to be for this game. My retort to

615
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 2: that not that I'm betting USC, and I'm not. I

616
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: bet Oregon State at seven, I bet it again at six.

617
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: I can almost guarantee you it's going to be in

618
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: our round robin parlay. But I would argue that it

619
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: doesn't matter if Caleb Williams is not taking his designed runs.

620
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: The emergence of not just Travis Dyed, but Austin Jones

621
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: is a running back eight point two yards per carry,

622
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 2: more than four yards after contact. That guy's an animal.

623
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 2: He had a helmet ripped off and kept running. You know,

624
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 2: USC is number one in line yards, so you know,

625
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 2: if Caleb Williams is not hogging up some of those carries,

626
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 2: it benefits Die and Jones, which are just as lethal

627
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 2: from the backfield, so I think.

628
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: And it's just a scheme too, like the Lincoln Isley scheme,

629
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 3: which you're you're so worried about the pass and by

630
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 3: the way, they don't go fast like people think USC

631
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 3: is like because they put up so many points and

632
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 3: they're just extremely efficient and explosive. Yeah, you're so worried

633
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 3: about the pass, and then his run schemes are so good.

634
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 3: But all of the Oklahoma offenses, like when they're when

635
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: they're offense was ever. It was like remember when it

636
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: was broken a little bit with Rattler and they were

637
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 3: trying those different zone scheme runs and they were trying

638
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 3: some different stuff up front, and then their whole offense

639
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 3: fall apart because they couldn't run the ball. Yeah, it

640
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: all starts with with you know, just runs runs, take

641
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 3: runs where you can get them, and then they're just

642
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: gashing teams and then all of a sudden you're just

643
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 3: getting humbled by explosive passing.

644
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 2: Plays, you know, or State's going to be able to

645
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 2: do some running themselves. They consistently have every year under

646
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 2: Jonathan Smith. One of the best rushing games west of

647
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: the Mississippi River. But if you're tuning into this game

648
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: and it's your first time to see Oregon State this year,

649
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 2: wait till you see a quarterback Chance Nolan connect with

650
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 2: Trey Shawn Harrison, the wide receiver, maybe the most electric

651
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: player I've seen this year that I wasn't really thinking

652
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 2: about during the summer. The average is three point two

653
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: yards per route were run. That's one of the most

654
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 2: explosive targets in the nation right now. We need to

655
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 2: find a way to stop this USC offense. Well Smith,

656
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 2: you know, Jonathan Smith came out and as presser this week,

657
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: he said, we have to cause turnovers against this USC offense.

658
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: We can't let it come to us, you know, we

659
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 2: have to go in. So I think what you're going

660
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: to see is a lot of Beaver defenders purposely trying

661
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 2: to strip the ball and they are going to go

662
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 2: for having They're going to go for the jugger to

663
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 2: try to get in the backfield any means necessary, and

664
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 2: they're going to try to strip the ball on every

665
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,719
Speaker 2: single tackle. Now there's you know, another element to that

666
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 2: you can miss and the USC can turn that into

667
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: a touchdown. But Oregon State has made it very clear

668
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 2: through their coaching staff the emphasis is on getting that

669
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: ball pulled out from the USC offense. This week, we'll

670
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 2: see if that turns into you know, tackles behind the

671
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage, strip events, maybe scoop and scores, or

672
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 2: if it turns into explosive plays for USC. But if

673
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: Oregon State.

674
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 3: That's how you should defend USC. By the way, like

675
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 3: USC is going to score against almost everyone all the time,

676
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 3: almost like their points per drive are going to be

677
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 3: astronomically high. So the way that you play them is

678
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 3: you keep your defense fresh number one, and you just

679
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 3: play extremely aggressive, try to create negative players on early

680
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 3: downs and or havoc turnovers. You steal two possessions in

681
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: this game, Oregon State really good chance of winning.

682
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 2: If Oregon State wins the havoc battle, they will win

683
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 2: this game outright in front of a crowd of twenty

684
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 2: five thousand. Research Stadium is under construction, so the current

685
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 2: capacity is like twenty five thousand. There's going to be

686
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: twenty five thousand people drinking red wine and going crazy

687
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 2: in Corvallis. It's going to be a scene, but my

688
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 2: money's behind them.

689
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, we will be uh tweeting out some beaver gifts

690
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 3: all right before we continue. As a reminder, the Big

691
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 3: Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM.

692
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704
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712
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713
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714
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715
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,480
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716
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719
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,759
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720
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 4: and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not available in

721
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 4: Nevada and New York.

722
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 3: All Right that'll do it for marquee games of the weekend.

723
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 3: But we have a lot more games. Let's start with

724
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 3: the Battle for the Iron Skillet TCU, SMU TCUs is

725
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 3: he Dame League opened to pick because has been cut

726
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 3: up to one two coming down. They're like a one,

727
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 3: one and a half point favorite here. You love you

728
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 3: some Warren Frogs for the season and for this Saturday.

729
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 3: Tell us why they walk away with the skillet in

730
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 3: which should be a capacity crowd and a hostile environment

731
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 3: at gerald Ford.

732
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean TCU has taken all the money all week.

733
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 2: It's a little nerve wracking when you see that number

734
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 2: stop at two and a half in that moment.

735
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 3: Not it will not go to three.

736
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 2: It won't touch three. It won't touch three. But I

737
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: don't know who's out there back in SMU here, because

738
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 2: Sunny Dykes knows every single player on both sides of

739
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 2: the ball that's on that SMU offense. More importantly, Joseph

740
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: Gillespie's defensive coordinator might be the best coach in this game.

741
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 2: And I don't think he's gonna have problems with Lashley's

742
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,280
Speaker 2: offense that you know made Tyler Van Dyck a Heisman

743
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 2: sleeper in a former world. But listen, Max Duggan is

744
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 2: getting the start here. Chandler Morris is still injured, and

745
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 2: you know that means there's going to be a lot

746
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 2: of ground explosiveness that SMU just absolutely cannot defend.

747
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 3: Mc Maryland was gashing them in the run game last week.

748
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this offense, and this might be, but TC's

749
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 2: offense I would take in a heartbeat over Maryland's offense.

750
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, they're both about it from a depth of

751
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: quarterback perspective. Right behind Max Duggan is the third string

752
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 2: quarterback Sam Jackson, who is is literally a running lightning bolt.

753
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 2: I've never seen anybody so fast. He's He's going to

754
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 2: be lethal if he ever gets more playing.

755
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,760
Speaker 3: They're probably close. So they bought that really explosive receiver,

756
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 3: really good receiver rooms they're probably really closed.

757
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 2: The number of quarterback hurries for SMU on Talia tackle

758
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: Bayola against Maryland last week. Do you don't know how

759
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 2: many hurries that were put on Maryland last week? Zero zero? So,

760
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the one big improvement that TCU

761
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 2: has had since Sunny Dykes took over, there's second the

762
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 2: nation and Havoc allowed TCU was a disaster from a

763
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 2: turnover perspective before he got there. Now the offense has

764
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 2: zero fumbles and almost an FBS low nine tackles for loss.

765
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 2: I get it. Schedule adjustment, I get it. But nine

766
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,959
Speaker 2: tackles for loss, that's pretty impressive, even in garbage time.

767
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 2: So for me, it's TCU all the way. If you

768
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 2: haven't gotten in on this, maybe find a cheap money line.

769
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 2: I'd still buy two. I'd still buy two and a half,

770
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 2: I'd still buy three. There is just I mean, Sonny

771
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 2: Dike's you know, he's looking forward to this game. He

772
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: was talking about this game in the summer. I'm not

773
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 2: going to say it was a big twelve media days

774
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 2: because I was. He was talking about this game in

775
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 2: the summer. Yeah, So I'll just leave it at that.

776
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 2: This is a game that the entire Dykes family is

777
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 2: looking forward to.

778
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 3: Here's a game that I bet. Another game where I'm like,

779
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 3: why is this line not moving more? Which makes me

780
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 3: a little nervous. Notre Dame at North Carolina, I took

781
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: North carolinlinus one and minus one and a half. Well,

782
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 3: I saw what I needed to see last week with

783
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 3: the Notre Dame offense in a smash spot against Cal

784
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 3: at home, like after a home loss to Marshall, they

785
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 3: still can't do anything. Now you're look, you're playing a

786
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 3: bad North Carolina defense. But North Carolina it's a great

787
00:38:58,320 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 3: spot for the count. No kind is coming off of

788
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: a bye, so you hope that they address some of

789
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 3: the defensive issues. You know, they also are going to

790
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 3: get two starters back from injury, their right tackle Spenser

791
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 3: Roland and then their their three technique defensive tackle Miles Murphy,

792
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 3: who I think both matter. You know, they're coming off

793
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 3: of buy. They revenge for the big core group of

794
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 3: these guys have revenge for the past two years, and

795
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 3: they lost to Notre Dame. Notre Dame limited time to

796
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 3: prepare going along the road, and as simple as we've seen,

797
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: Drake may absolutely roast whenever he's been out on the

798
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:34,959
Speaker 3: field this year, and he's looked tremendous, like he's top

799
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 3: five quarterback efficiency and just go watch him. You could

800
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 3: just tell passes every single eye test. And we had

801
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 3: a lot of questions about this offense coming into this year.

802
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 3: I don't any longer. It's still the defense and I

803
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 3: don't know a couple hours ago. Josh Downs, one of

804
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: the best receivers in the country who hasn't been playing,

805
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 3: tweeted the Arnold Schwarzenegger gift. I'm back. He's back in

806
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 3: the mix now. Like I don't. This Notre Dame offense

807
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 3: is an apt. I'm not even sure that they can

808
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,439
Speaker 3: take that much advantage of a North Carolina defense. It's

809
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 3: been completely garbage. So I think the spot, the matchup,

810
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: the injury situation, it's all North Carolina. But this line

811
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 3: is pretty cold and pretty steady.

812
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, shocking, right, I mean, North Carolina is getting everything

813
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 2: from sharps, squares, Joe's, any Grandma's with money, it doesn't matter.

814
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 2: Everybody's on North Carolina in this game. And I personally

815
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: think that you should be on North Carolina in this

816
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: game if you're going to have these two defenses, which

817
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 2: are outside the top one hundred in so many categories,

818
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: like North Carolina is near dead last and defensive finishing drive.

819
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 2: So if Notre Dame get pass the forty, they're gonna

820
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 2: get points, probably a touchdown on the board. But at

821
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 2: the same time, the Notre Dame defense has been worse

822
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 2: than expected. We thought this was going to be an

823
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 2: elite defense after what they did with the two high

824
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 2: shell against Ohio State, and all you've seen is outside

825
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 2: the top one hundred and havoc O's the one hundred

826
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 2: and fourteenth in the line yards, one hundred and twenty

827
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 2: first against the rush, been terrible, terrible on defense. And

828
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,240
Speaker 2: it's not just against so I say, it's other teams

829
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: that have roughed them up. So I think, if you're

830
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 2: gonna look at this thing being a shootout against two

831
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 2: defenses that are completely underperforming, why would you not take

832
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 2: the one that has the more explosive and more efficient

833
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 2: and the better success rate? And all those things point

834
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 2: to North Carolina. And yeah, Notre Dame has a very

835
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 2: high special teams rating. The number one team in the

836
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 2: nation and SP plus special teams is North Carolina. So

837
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: I'm with you, downs is playing. I don't understand why

838
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: this number is not moving. If you want to insert,

839
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: you know, Admiral Acbar from Return of the Jedi say,

840
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: and it's a trap.

841
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 3: It's a trap. It's a trap. It's a trap.

842
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 2: Fine, we don't use terms like that and narrative street

843
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 2: here on this podcast, But I don't understand why the

844
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 2: line's not moving. Stuck. I really don't know money down

845
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 2: on it yet, but that's the I mean, that's the

846
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 2: side I would play.

847
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 3: I mean, ultimately, I don't care he's played North Carolina.

848
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 3: Just an observation. But the thing that gives me what

849
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 3: that worries me a little less about this line moving

850
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 3: is Notre Dame. I got Marshall plus twenty one against

851
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 3: Notre Dame on game day. It was at nineteen during

852
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,479
Speaker 3: the week like it steamed up. How about against cal

853
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 3: What was that line down? Do nine?

854
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: Yeah?

855
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:16,399
Speaker 3: Closed at thirteen and a half. There's people out there

856
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 3: that still like this Notre Dame team. Inexplicably do they

857
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 3: have any money left? We'll see, I love, maybe they'll

858
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 3: steam Notre Dame. Maybe Notre Dame will move to minus three.

859
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 3: I we can get UNC plus three. All right, Moving

860
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 3: on to my favorite game of the day, Iowa Rutgers

861
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 3: Iowa seven and a half point favorite over under thirty

862
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 3: three and a half. I think it has to be

863
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: the lowest FBS total in quite some time. This game's

864
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:50,720
Speaker 3: at seven pm Eastern on FS one. Amazing it should

865
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 3: be at noon though I played the under thirty five

866
00:42:54,400 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 3: this game. These two offenses are beyond dreadful there. Neither

867
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 3: could throw the ball. Rutgers is just going to try

868
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 3: to run into a wall. Iowa can't move the ball

869
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 3: on anybody not named Nevada. Rutgers just scored sixteen on Temple.

870
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 3: They won sixteen to fourteen. They beat BC twenty two

871
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 3: to twenty one with some flukes, but they I mean

872
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 3: last week against Temple that I was watching that offense.

873
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 3: It is their quarterback against Temple. This is a Temple

874
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 3: off again. It was like seven thousand yards to do

875
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 3: the quarterback for Rutgers. I think he finished nine to

876
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 3: fifteen for fifty yards, like three yards per attempt the quarterback.

877
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 3: The quarterback stats are going to be horrendous here. Now

878
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 3: you can't have turnovers. The total is so low. There's

879
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,720
Speaker 3: not a lot of room for air. But the kicker,

880
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: which made me kind of pushed me over the edge.

881
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 2: Here.

882
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 3: This is a punning extravaganza, an absolute punting bonanza. If

883
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 3: you like punting, which I do, I vote for the

884
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 3: Ray Guy Ward. I'll be tuned in watching everyvery single

885
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 3: punt closely. With two of the front runners here, you're

886
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 3: gonna get like just flips of the field all night.

887
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 3: And then you're gonna have each opposing offense running into

888
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 3: a brick wall. Send out the punter bet MGM sponsor

889
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 3: this podcast, any other books out there? Tweet me put

890
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 3: an over under out for the amount of punting yards

891
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 3: in this game? Do you want to, you know, get

892
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 3: some excitement in this game? That'll be the exciting thing.

893
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 3: How many punting yards we had? Seven hundred and eighty Yeah,

894
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 3: that is my guess. Got one thousand punning yards in

895
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 3: this game.

896
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 2: Let's send it at seven. Let's let's set it at

897
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 2: seven sixty. You want to take the over younger, Yeah,

898
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,800
Speaker 2: I'll take the over y eight punts eight punts and

899
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 2: what forty five per per team? That's about Yeah, we're

900
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 2: about there.

901
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 3: These teams will punt it to thirty two and then

902
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 3: like pen so there'll be like some thirty yard punts.

903
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,320
Speaker 3: You know, it'll be fourth and one at the thirty

904
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 3: four and they'll punt it and then the other team

905
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: will start at the one. The only thing at the

906
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 3: hope for is no state. You can't have safeties, and

907
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 3: so you can't help. The punters are too good even

908
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: to be like eleape and not to elite. But then

909
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: even if you have to punt deep like at your

910
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 3: OW ten. These punters are capable of, you know, booming

911
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 3: one fifty six yards. You don't have to worry about

912
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 3: like a shank. You know. Some of these college teams

913
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 3: they're punning from their own eight and it's a seven

914
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 3: yard punt and you're like, fuck me, here goes my under.

915
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 3: So there's a punning extravaganza. I cannot wait to bet

916
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 3: this under thirty five. This is lower than any Army

917
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 3: Navy total has ever been under. Can't wait, can't wait

918
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 3: to lose us, and can't wait to sweat this out.

919
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 2: If Ruggers punter is gonna win Ray Guy Adam Corsek,

920
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: If he's gonna win it, it's gonna be highlights from

921
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 2: this film. I mean, this is gonna be a It's

922
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 2: gonna be quite a conundrum for Iowa to cover him

923
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 2: for this thing to go under.

924
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 3: But for three, that's probably what Iowa fan, what you're

925
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 3: hoping for to cover.

926
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think there's some amazing stats with

927
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 2: these teams. They've only played three games. Both of these

928
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 2: teams ranks third and sixth and PFF and tackling uh

929
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: So there's not gonna be any explosive plays whatsoever. I

930
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 2: don't even know what a key number under thirty three

931
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 2: and a half is or thirty one, twenty eight and

932
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 2: thirty one, Right, that's where we're at.

933
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 3: I'd say I would play I would play it down

934
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 3: to thirty one and a half, you know, like seventeen fourteen,

935
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 3: seventeen thirteen, you know, twenty to ten, twenty one to ten.

936
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 3: I would not go below thirty one. I will play

937
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 3: this over if it goes to twenty seven and a half,

938
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 3: twenty seven and a half.

939
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,919
Speaker 2: There's your number, Everybody, which team, like, which one would

940
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 2: you do? Team total? Under? More on Rutgers or Iowa.

941
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:29,879
Speaker 2: I mean it kind of goes into the spread.

942
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,919
Speaker 3: But I would probably do Iowa. Yeah.

943
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rutgers runs the ball seventy percent at twenty nine

944
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 2: seconds per play. I mean you're killing yourself from getting

945
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 2: points on the board. Yeah.

946
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 3: There was an amazing post on Reddit about how this

947
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 3: game could end. How that they went through the entire

948
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 3: play by like projecting out how this is going to

949
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 3: play out, and they said, the game is gonna end

950
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 3: one nothing, and here's how it actually could. So if

951
00:46:56,719 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 3: it was zero zero insert beamer celebrated a zero zero

952
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 3: score in wake Forest. Virginia Tech going to overtime at

953
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 3: their Miskick zero zero. End of regulation, goes to overtime.

954
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 3: No one scores in the first overtime, and no one

955
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 3: scores in the second overtime, zero zero. Third overtime, it's

956
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 3: now just repeating two point conversions, so Iowa doesn't get

957
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 3: the first one. Rutgers is going for two and the

958
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 3: win to win two nothing. In the third overtime, they

959
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 3: throw a pick in the end zone. Iowa kid sees

960
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:29,879
Speaker 3: daylight and he says, this is the only chance any

961
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 3: team is ever going to score, so he's trying to

962
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 3: run out and take it back the other way. He

963
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:38,720
Speaker 3: takes it out of the end zone, he gets popped

964
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 3: at the one, ball flies up in the air into

965
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 3: the end zone. Rutgers recovers it. It's a safety on

966
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 3: a two point conversion in triple overtime. The rule in

967
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 3: college football for that is it's one point. Safeties are

968
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 3: one point on two point conversions. Rutgers wins one nothing.

969
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 3: So there you have it all total under one and

970
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 3: a half. All right, let's move on to our next game,

971
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 3: Maryland at Michigan Michigan lank seventeen here. I want to

972
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 3: play Maryland, but I've believed in Maryland before. Think about

973
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 3: Penn State, what a couple years ago. They throw the

974
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 3: pick six late and they need exposive place ready that

975
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 3: you're going to be so frustrated with them. It's like

976
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 3: inefficiency and efficiency. You got to hit enough explosive place.

977
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 3: Can they do that against Michigan?

978
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 2: I don't know.

979
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 3: I liked what I've seen so far. I don't know

980
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: what to make of Michigan yet. I think they're going

981
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 3: to be really good. They've played three middle school teams

982
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 3: so far, so it's really hard for me to get

983
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 3: a grip on this. This will give us a really

984
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: good read on both teams. I had to bet that

985
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 3: I bet Maryland probably a pass.

986
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: So the play on this game is supposed to be

987
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 2: Maryland because the projection that I have is thirteen and

988
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:44,279
Speaker 2: a half. And if you look at some of the

989
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 2: advanced metrics, the offense is going to be able to

990
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 2: move the ball, They're able to going to be able

991
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 2: to get scores. But I just don't believe it. I

992
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 2: feel like we've been in this situation before where Conference

993
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 2: opponents like Maryland have come into the big House and

994
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: there's an advantage on the defensive side of the ball

995
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,800
Speaker 2: for Michigan. It ends up being six turnovers from Maryland

996
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:02,840
Speaker 2: to one game where they just squander the ball away,

997
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 2: similar to what they did against Hiowa on a Friday

998
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 2: night before.

999
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 3: Maryland always does in big games. They'll have like personal fouls,

1000
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:14,320
Speaker 3: a pick six and then like you're you're down twenty

1001
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 3: four to nothing, yeah, and for your life.

1002
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 2: And I don't see a scenario where Maryland is in

1003
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 2: position to actually give Michigan like a run to actually

1004
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 2: win this game outright, So what does that mean. I

1005
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 2: think you're gonna get way better than seventeen live. I

1006
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 2: think you can get twenty four. I mean you're gonna

1007
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 2: want padding on that seventeen. Considering what Harbaugh is doing

1008
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 2: at home against teams like Hawaii, I mean, if he

1009
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: can get to sixty points, he's gonna try to get

1010
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 2: to sixty points. If he can shut him down to

1011
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 2: zero points, he's gonna play his full defense and through

1012
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. So you know this is I just

1013
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 2: don't want any part of Maryland whatsoever. It is an

1014
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: inflated number. The side should be Maryland but this is

1015
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 2: not a team that you can trust with your.

1016
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:58,280
Speaker 3: Money staying in the same state. Michigan State catching three

1017
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 3: against Minnesota, this line open Michigan State minus two and

1018
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 3: a half. I had to take the three here with O. Look,

1019
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: Minnesota has been great, similar to Michigan. They've played nobody,

1020
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 3: absolutely nobody, and they played Colorado, who is might be

1021
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 3: the worst team in the country, New Mexico State, and

1022
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:21,800
Speaker 3: I think Western Illinois nobody. So this is kind of

1023
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 3: a tough spot for them in a way. It's like

1024
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 3: you go from playing absolutely nobody to them on the

1025
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 3: road in a raucous environment for your conference opener against

1026
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 3: a team off of a loss. And on top of that,

1027
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 3: Minnesota won't have its leading receiver Bovin Bell, who's out

1028
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 3: for the year, which is massive because how do you

1029
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,720
Speaker 3: beat Michigan State You throw against their garbage secondary. Now

1030
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:46,240
Speaker 3: they have then a couple starters out on defense last week.

1031
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 3: I still don't know the status of them for sure.

1032
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 3: Jayden Read their best receiver and their top return man.

1033
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 3: He was out last week. I'm here rumbling he's going

1034
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 3: to play, but I don't know yet. So those guys

1035
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 3: are obviously huge, but at least Peyton Thorne started to

1036
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 3: develop a connection with Coleman, that receiver at you know

1037
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,120
Speaker 3: who had two touchdowns and they really he could not

1038
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 3: complete a pass to him to start the year. They

1039
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 3: finally kind of built a little connection there in the

1040
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 3: Washington game and they, you know, Michigan State came back

1041
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 3: and started to look a little better. So I think

1042
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 3: it's a better matchup for the Michigan State defense. Now.

1043
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 3: You would you want, you know, one of the best

1044
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 3: defensive tackles in there. You want, you know, your full

1045
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 3: arsenal defense, and we don't know if they're going to

1046
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 3: have that. They've also lost another key starter for the

1047
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 3: year to an injury. But going up against the Minnesota

1048
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 3: rush heavy attack, not having to worry about Autman Bell,

1049
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,359
Speaker 3: I have to take the three here, even if I'm

1050
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 3: backing an absolute garbage head coach her his words, the

1051
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 3: resume is on the tape. I'm a horseship football coach

1052
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 3: right now. So yeah, it Sparty Nation. I'm with you here.

1053
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 2: I love mil Tucker, the humility, the chip on the shoulder,

1054
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 2: that he's perfect for Michigan State. But listen, I'm with

1055
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 2: you one hundred percent because with Minnesota not having any

1056
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 2: passing options on the outside, they're gonna rely heavily on

1057
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,280
Speaker 2: that run and Michigan State has been just fine against

1058
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:10,280
Speaker 2: the runs sixth in line yards. Defensively, the big problem

1059
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 2: with the Michigan State last week was that they had

1060
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,400
Speaker 2: they were two defenders down in the back seven safety

1061
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 2: corner and that's why Washington was able to just light

1062
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,959
Speaker 2: them up. If those players are back, then that's great

1063
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:22,919
Speaker 2: news for the defense. And I don't think they're gonna

1064
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 2: allow any explosive explosives anyway to this Minnesota offense through

1065
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,280
Speaker 2: the air, and they're well eclipped in the front seven

1066
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: to defend the rush. So I do like Michigan State

1067
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:32,319
Speaker 2: for that reason. Why have I not bet it yet?

1068
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 2: We finally have some threes in the market. But the

1069
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:37,840
Speaker 2: whole Jayden Reid, like Peyton Thorn, has been out of

1070
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 2: sync for what eleven quarters this year. It was that

1071
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:45,280
Speaker 2: second half where they started hovering around backdoor range against Washington.

1072
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,399
Speaker 2: That's the first time Peyton Thorn has made any kind

1073
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 2: of connection with any receivers not named Jayden Reid this

1074
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: entire season. So if that carries over to this game,

1075
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to take advantage of the Minnesota defense.

1076
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 2: I'd like to have Jayden Reid playing this game, not

1077
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 2: just because he's Peyton Thorn's favorite target, because he's like

1078
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 2: one of the most electric players in all college football,

1079
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 2: but because he returns punts and he returns kickoffs, and

1080
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,319
Speaker 2: that is extremely important to this team and to the

1081
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 2: spread more than what they're accounting for. So looking for

1082
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 2: Jayden Reed. News would love it if they got their

1083
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 2: two defensive backs back. But to me, I'm right, I'm

1084
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 2: what sparty all the way, and we may have to

1085
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:19,759
Speaker 2: wait till Saturday morning to get some news on who's

1086
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 2: going to be on the field for its spartans.

1087
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Oregon at Washington State

1088
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:27,800
Speaker 3: Washington State plus six and a half, You fade and

1089
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 3: Rode bo Nicks any thoughts here?

1090
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're supposed to take Washington State here the you know,

1091
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:37,720
Speaker 2: but the the problem is is the home road splits

1092
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:40,720
Speaker 2: with bow Knicks. Is that going to translate against the POLUSA,

1093
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 2: you know, up and up in Pullman. Defensively, Washington State

1094
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 2: has been excellent so far this year, but I mean

1095
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 2: that's kind of how everybody's numbers look after you play

1096
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 2: Wisconsin's offense, but they are top ten and a huge

1097
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: number of categories from success right havoc, finishing drives, and coverage.

1098
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 2: So you know, from a defensive standpoint, yes, I can

1099
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 2: get behind Washington State. Where I have issues is on

1100
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 2: their offense where they're throwing the ball. You know, sixty

1101
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 2: percent of the time, Oregon's defense is nothing great. I

1102
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 2: mean their one hundredth and coverage, they're one hundred and

1103
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 2: twenty first against the pass. But that's the one area

1104
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 2: where I'm having a hard time getting sold on backing

1105
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 2: Washington State. So for me, it leans more to an

1106
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 2: undergame than backing you know, Wazoo. But yes, the home

1107
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 2: team is definitely the side against against boeckt Here.

1108
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,919
Speaker 3: Tulsad Ole Miss al Miss NUS twenty one and a half.

1109
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:27,800
Speaker 3: You're riding with the boys in your backyard.

1110
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 2: Such an overlooked spot for Old Miss here heading into

1111
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 2: SEC Conference play against Kentucky the following week, Tulsa's airing

1112
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: the ball out like they have this offense that all

1113
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 2: of a sudden they can go vertical down the field. Listen,

1114
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 2: Old Miss, the offense is still not doing what they

1115
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:45,319
Speaker 2: want from a from a passing the ball perspective, They've

1116
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 2: mostly all been rushed this entire season. And if Lane

1117
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 2: Kiffin has you know, if he wants to get up

1118
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 2: by twenty one or twenty eight and then slow the

1119
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 2: game down because there's sec play right around the corner,

1120
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 2: give it what the Missouri State treatment. Tulsa is going

1121
00:54:57,920 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 2: to be able to hang around in this game. You know,

1122
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 2: I think one and a half is absolute by on

1123
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 2: the Hurricanes.

1124
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll look for Tulso live there if old Mis

1125
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:07,439
Speaker 3: goes up, because I think they will shut it down late.

1126
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 3: Wisconsin at Ohio State. Ohio State after putting up a

1127
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 3: seventy seventh spot on Toledo like nineteen against Wisconsin and

1128
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 3: your boy Graham Mertz anything here.

1129
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 2: Well, the thing is, I'll get chastised on this podcast

1130
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 2: if I start talking about backing Graham Mertz for anything.

1131
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 2: So I don't know if I can do that ever again.

1132
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:26,160
Speaker 3: But you know they are you can talk about backing

1133
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 3: them potentially as a dog. Although I'm worried about the

1134
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:32,399
Speaker 3: Wisconsin defense here. I love Jim Leonard, but they lost

1135
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 3: a lot and they're going and this Ohio State offense

1136
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 3: last week was going up against a very good top forty.

1137
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 3: By the way, this isn't like your typical Mac defense.

1138
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 3: Toledo defense. They put up seventy seven. Graham Mertz is

1139
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 3: gonna have to try to keep up. You know, it's

1140
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 3: much improved Ohio State defense. I can't back Wisconsin here.

1141
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 2: Well, I think oddsmakers are having a problem with his

1142
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 2: number two because the more money that's coming in Ohio State,

1143
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 2: the more this is getting steamed. There's no reason to

1144
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 2: play eighteen and a half or nineteen. But who knows

1145
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 2: how high this is going to go. I know Wisconsin

1146
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 2: is number one in the nation defensive finishing drives and

1147
00:56:01,360 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 2: their fifth and coverage, but you throw that out the window,

1148
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 2: especially when you see that CJ. Stroud has made that

1149
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 2: Smith and a Jigba connection with the rest of his

1150
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 2: wide receivers. That is the scary offense that you and

1151
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:14,799
Speaker 2: I projected to be in the National title game. I'm

1152
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 2: not getting in the way of it.

1153
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:19,279
Speaker 3: All right, good stuff down, Let's move on to there's

1154
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 3: not enough you know, marquee FCSFBS matchups, So will We'll

1155
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 3: push the FCS or no back to next week and

1156
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:30,920
Speaker 3: we'll be doing that a lot throughout the season. So so South.

1157
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:33,240
Speaker 2: Dakota, State of Missouri state handicapped this week.

1158
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: I talked to Patrin. Now you know, we went over

1159
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:38,640
Speaker 3: the game plan for this upcoming week. So I'm curious

1160
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 3: to see whe the number comes out and then I'll

1161
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,880
Speaker 3: confer with him and then if I like anything, I'll

1162
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 3: put it out on the action map. But it's time

1163
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 3: for my second favorite segment, and that's Colin on San

1164
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 3: Diego State totals. He is now zero for three on

1165
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 3: the season, so we all are three to oho to

1166
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 3: lead out San Diego State over under forty five and

1167
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,440
Speaker 3: a half. You've gone over the past two week weeks.

1168
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 3: After you went under week one, they went over week

1169
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 3: one and under the past two weeks. Are you going

1170
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 3: back to over?

1171
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 2: I'm going over. I'm going over in San Diego State Toledo.

1172
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 1: As Tech overs Toledo.

1173
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 3: Yes, I love the under. I love the under. I've

1174
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 3: been waiting to put it in. I've been waiting to

1175
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 3: bet it because I'm wanted to make sure that you

1176
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 3: love the over. I do.

1177
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 2: I do, and the number of the number keeps going

1178
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 2: down or else I put it in the app.

1179
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 3: But I mean, listen, I'm gonna bet this right now.

1180
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 2: I mean, both these defenses are not that great. San

1181
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 2: Diego State's one hundred and twenty second and tackling, they're not.

1182
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:33,360
Speaker 2: This is not the same defense whatsoever.

1183
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 3: Right, it doesn't matter.

1184
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 2: They're terrible and listen, Toledo needs to score some points

1185
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 2: after what happened last week. Got some unfinished business here

1186
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 2: in Toledo getting blown out showing their ass.

1187
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 3: Toledo's defense is, like I said, a top forty unity. Yeah,

1188
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 3: they got blown up by it was this huge talent

1189
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 3: discriptions against Ohio State. Their offense is a mess. They

1190
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 3: lost another starting offensive lineman. It's probably gonna cost their

1191
00:57:57,520 --> 00:58:00,480
Speaker 3: wind total. They're now moving all they lost two are

1192
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 3: the most important starting off time before the year started.

1193
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 3: Their offensive line is a disaster. They can't really throw

1194
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 3: the ball right now. You're not gonna run it against

1195
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 3: San Diego State. San Diego State's defense got embarrassed last week.

1196
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 3: Bounce back this week. Toledo's defense got embarrassed last week.

1197
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 3: Bounce back this week against the dian Diego State offense.

1198
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 3: It's lost lost. They can't do anything. It's just Braxton Burmce.

1199
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 3: They're just throwing it, throwing the ball into an abyss under.

1200
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 2: Hey, it's under forty six and a half, it's a bet. MGM,

1201
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 2: it's steam down to forty four and a half. Keep

1202
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 2: coming down because that's gonna I mean, that's an over

1203
00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 2: for me, afternoon.

1204
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:39,439
Speaker 3: Man under that Dragon stadium. Early start too, so it'll

1205
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 3: be sleeping on offense early for them.

1206
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 2: I might wait, like play it in the second quarter

1207
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 2: when the total is like twenty eight, you know over.

1208
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna put this in the app right now and

1209
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 3: bet it myself. All right, before we get out of here,

1210
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 3: we have one final quarter of business. Let's go three

1211
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 3: and out.

1212
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1213
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 3: All right, let's start first down our favorite bet of

1214
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:09,160
Speaker 3: week four, Charlotte Charlotte plus twenty two. Chris Reynolds is

1215
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 3: back at quarterback, and that means this offense is a

1216
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 3: rocket ship. They are going up against a South Carolina

1217
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 3: defense that has been absolutely ravished by injuries. I mean

1218
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 3: they could be without eight eight defensive starters from week one.

1219
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 3: Couple are already out for the year, a bunch more

1220
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 3: are very questionable to play in South Carolina, you have

1221
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,240
Speaker 3: South carol you have Charlotte, you have that South Carolina

1222
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,240
Speaker 3: state and then Kentucky in the start of that Sea play.

1223
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:39,200
Speaker 3: So I think when in doubt, they're going to be

1224
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 3: cautious here with a lot of these injuries, you know

1225
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 3: that secondary. If they have all and a lot of

1226
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:47,400
Speaker 3: these injuries are in the secondary, Charlotte can keep up here.

1227
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:50,800
Speaker 3: We saw what Chris Reynolds did last week at Georgia State.

1228
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 3: One outright is three touchdown underdogs. They have great receivers,

1229
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 3: offenses firing on all cylinders. They'll come into this game

1230
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 3: with a lot of confidence. Will they get many stops. No,

1231
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:01,920
Speaker 3: so it's not stopping anybody. But I'm getting over three

1232
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 3: touchdowns and Eve, if they're not twenty eight late, Reynolds,

1233
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:06,440
Speaker 3: go get us the back door. This number is inflated.

1234
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 3: I don't think that the market is properly adjusting for

1235
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 3: the amount of points that Chris Reynolds is actually worth

1236
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:20,400
Speaker 3: for this Charlotte team. Without him, worthless, UMass Colorado level.

1237
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 3: Colorado State with him, this team could score. Defense is worthless.

1238
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:28,600
Speaker 3: But I like plus twenty two here, good spot.

1239
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with a duke Kansas under sixty six.

1240
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 2: I think there's some sixty five and a half's out

1241
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:38,440
Speaker 2: there listen. As expected, this Duke defense is much improved

1242
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:40,840
Speaker 2: under Mike Elcho running the four two five. They have

1243
01:00:40,880 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 2: a couple of extremely high grated corners per PFF, Joshua

1244
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:49,600
Speaker 2: Pickett top twenty individually enforced and completion rate. And you

1245
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:52,960
Speaker 2: know Mike Elko's defensive Duke, They've allowed only nine drives

1246
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:55,640
Speaker 2: this season to cross the forty yard line. Pretty impressive

1247
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 2: turnaround job that he has done there. And then the

1248
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:00,840
Speaker 2: Kansas defense they haven't been bad themselves, especially against the run,

1249
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:02,959
Speaker 2: So they're going to have to stop Jordan Waters who's

1250
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 2: averaging five yards after contact. He ranks fifth and PFF

1251
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:09,320
Speaker 2: for elusiveness. That is something that the Kansas defense has

1252
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 2: shown they could do against the ground, not so much

1253
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 2: against the air. But that's not going to be a

1254
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 2: problem against Riley Leonard. And you know, the Kansas is

1255
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:19,200
Speaker 2: eleventh and tackling right now. They're going to limit explosive plays.

1256
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 2: They're fundamentally sound, just like their coach has been everywhere,

1257
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 2: you know, from Buffalo to Kansas. I don't expect a

1258
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 2: ton of explosive here from Duke, and I don't think

1259
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 2: Jaylen Daniels is going to have much success in the

1260
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 2: air like he has the entire season. This is going

1261
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 2: to be a slow pace game. Mike Elko came out

1262
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 2: in the press this week and he said, us running

1263
01:01:37,160 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 2: up tempo where us having the pace of the game

1264
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 2: goes fast, only hurts our defense, and we want this

1265
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 2: to be a defensive game. This is going to be

1266
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 2: a slow pack. I know it's exciting. These Kansas and

1267
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 2: Duke offenses have been fun to watch, especially out of

1268
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 2: those colors in those jerseys, but this is going to

1269
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:54,080
Speaker 2: be a slower pace game. Both teams defensive, finishy drives

1270
01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 2: are going to take over, and that Duke's secondary is

1271
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 2: going to give them a shot to win this game.

1272
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:02,000
Speaker 2: Out right in Lawrence, give me the under Kansas.

1273
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 3: I agree. In this battle of blue buds, undefeated college

1274
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 3: basketball blue buds, Kansas has been unbelievable. They won as

1275
01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 3: double digit dogs at West Virginia, then win as close

1276
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:17,400
Speaker 3: to double digitals against Houston. But West Virginia has problems. Houston.

1277
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 3: We've talked about this for weeks.

1278
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 2: They look like something fights on the sideline.

1279
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, all the credit in the world to Kansas, but

1280
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 3: the market has gone too far and now seven and

1281
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 3: a half, I guess a much improved duke team. That

1282
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 3: both these teams are really improved, but seven and a

1283
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:37,919
Speaker 3: half got Elko lead that defense. Ryland has been really

1284
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,520
Speaker 3: good for that offense. Duke overall one of the most

1285
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,080
Speaker 3: improutees in the country. Give me the hook over seven.

1286
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:47,080
Speaker 2: You'd be a nine point underdog to a G five

1287
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:49,439
Speaker 2: team and then be a seven point favorite, a seven

1288
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 2: half point favorite to a Power five team. It's crazy.

1289
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, too many points for the duke backcourt. Let's

1290
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:57,960
Speaker 3: be on the second down, our favorite overdog.

1291
01:02:58,600 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 2: It's called the overdog part.

1292
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:02,280
Speaker 3: I think we're five to one on these. You got

1293
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 3: to get our underdog winning on parlago and both these

1294
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 3: have absolute money, especially if you remove Colum betting Graham Mertz,

1295
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 3: then we're undefeated. I'm gonna go with Northwestern. I bet

1296
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 3: this earlier this week. I think it's the only big

1297
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 3: overdog I have so far. Length I was like, I

1298
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 3: laid seven. I think the line is up to seven

1299
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 3: and a half now I'd still bet it. I'd bet

1300
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:23,880
Speaker 3: it up to nine and a half. This Miami, Ohio

1301
01:03:24,320 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 3: team is kind of a mess right now. Backup quarterback,

1302
01:03:27,000 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 3: they're starting left tackles out or tight end did come back,

1303
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:33,040
Speaker 3: but it's just a really ineffective offense, and by it's

1304
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 3: just a beat up team in general. This is the

1305
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 3: end of a brutal out of conference schedule. They played Cincinnati,

1306
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:44,240
Speaker 3: they played Kentucky. Now they go to Northwestern before the

1307
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 3: start of conference played Northwestern. Meanwhile, is coming off back

1308
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 3: to back home upset losses against aforementioned Duke when you

1309
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:54,920
Speaker 3: know they were going to tie the game and fubbled

1310
01:03:54,920 --> 01:03:58,800
Speaker 3: at the goal line last week against FCS Southern Illinois.

1311
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 3: Look stuff with turnovers happening in but I expect them

1312
01:04:02,360 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 3: to come out here with a fully focused max effort.

1313
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,840
Speaker 3: Mina Ohio is just beat up. Don't get beat up

1314
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 3: in the trenches here. Grek Gabrett was their whole team.

1315
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 3: He was the engine that made the car go. Without him,

1316
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 3: it's going to be a real struggle for Miama Ohio.

1317
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 3: So I think Northwestern comes out early, you know, puts

1318
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 3: Mine Ohio away. The Mina Ohio kind of packs it

1319
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 3: in focusing on staying healthy before conference play. So give

1320
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 3: me Pats Cats, Pats Cats.

1321
01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:35,240
Speaker 2: Yeah. My favorite favorite is Tennessee Volunteers and I love

1322
01:04:35,240 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 2: it more and more.

1323
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 3: Mocket wish Tennessee.

1324
01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 2: I ain't no, I ain't no. It's not a question

1325
01:04:51,560 --> 01:04:53,600
Speaker 2: of am I going to bet It's a question of

1326
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:54,920
Speaker 2: how much am I gonna bet it? And is it

1327
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:56,600
Speaker 2: gonna be on the team total over? Is it going

1328
01:04:56,680 --> 01:04:59,000
Speaker 2: to be on this ten and a half number? Where

1329
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:02,920
Speaker 2: I would love this ten Florida has absolutely dominated this series,

1330
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,960
Speaker 2: embarrassed Josh Hipel last year with Emery Jones, not even

1331
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 2: with Anthony richards with Emery Jones last year. And by

1332
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 2: now everybody knows that Anthony Richardson hasn't thrown a touchdown pass.

1333
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:13,520
Speaker 2: But what's more shocking is that he doesn't have any

1334
01:05:13,520 --> 01:05:16,760
Speaker 2: big time throws. He has six turnover worthy plays. He

1335
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 2: has not been a very good quarterback whatsoever. And yeah,

1336
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:21,600
Speaker 2: Florida can establish a run, but that's not going to

1337
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:22,960
Speaker 2: work against Tennessee.

1338
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:24,600
Speaker 3: Tennessey's run defense is pretty good.

1339
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 2: Tennessee's run defense is really good. And what happens when

1340
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 2: Hendon Hooker is running that offense at a lightning pace?

1341
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:33,000
Speaker 2: Here there's sixth and seconds per play in the nation,

1342
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:36,600
Speaker 2: twentieth and success rate seventh and finishing drives is a

1343
01:05:36,680 --> 01:05:40,000
Speaker 2: real problem for Florida because everything passed the forty turns

1344
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,240
Speaker 2: into a touchdown for Josh Hypel and I think the

1345
01:05:42,280 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 2: one big key takeaway is Florida's game against South Florida

1346
01:05:45,280 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 2: last week. The Bulls were seventy three percent postgame win

1347
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 2: expectancy and they were well above national average and passing downs.

1348
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:57,280
Speaker 2: Florida is terrible in defending passing downs, and if you

1349
01:05:57,320 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 2: have one handicap, maybe like if you can throw some

1350
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 2: love Florida's way. It's really based upon what Tennessee's going

1351
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:06,800
Speaker 2: to do on defense because defensive coordinator ten Banks, he's

1352
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 2: gonna have to break away from playing man. Kentucky plays zone.

1353
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:12,600
Speaker 2: They kept their eyes on Anthony Richardson, but ten Banks

1354
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 2: plays a lot a lot of man, and they only

1355
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:19,040
Speaker 2: had twenty five percent of opponent dropbacks this year. Tennessee

1356
01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:22,720
Speaker 2: has played in zone coverage, so if they switched that around,

1357
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 2: they could keep Florida from scoring. I would take a

1358
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 2: Florida team total under, but we're not going to know that,

1359
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 2: so I like the Tennessee team total over. I also

1360
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:32,200
Speaker 2: love Tennessee if I can get the ten, but I'll

1361
01:06:32,200 --> 01:06:34,000
Speaker 2: bet ten and a half two. This is my favorite

1362
01:06:34,040 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 2: over over.

1363
01:06:35,080 --> 01:06:37,560
Speaker 3: Right, let's move on to third down. That's our underdog

1364
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:41,920
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay.

1365
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:46,560
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1366
01:06:46,720 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1367
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:53,120
Speaker 3: Fight off, Baby give me in. Oregon State already talked

1368
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:56,240
Speaker 3: about this game. State of steel, coup, possessions, shoot out,

1369
01:06:56,760 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 3: have agressions coming for USC.

1370
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I already talked about Mike too. I'm taking Kansas

1371
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 2: State on the money land. Kansas State's going to dominate

1372
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 2: the trench on both sides of the ball, defensive line

1373
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 2: and offensive line. They're going to win. And what that

1374
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:09,560
Speaker 2: means is Dylan Gabriel is going to get some pressure.

1375
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 2: And that Dylan Gabriel that we come to know down

1376
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 2: at UCF that had just turnover, turnover worthy plays coming

1377
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 2: all the time, that's finally going to show up here.

1378
01:07:17,840 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 2: Adrian Martin is going to be a larger part of

1379
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 2: the Kansas State offense. They're going to run a lot

1380
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:24,400
Speaker 2: of twenty one and considering the fact that Oklahoma is

1381
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred, outside the top one ten

1382
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 2: in lineyards on defense, means they can't control the trench.

1383
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 2: Kansas State is going to hog the ball thirty five

1384
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 2: to forty minutes. They're going to put a choke out

1385
01:07:35,760 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 2: on Oklahoma's offense, and they're going to win this game outright,

1386
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:40,600
Speaker 2: So let's go Beaters.

1387
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:44,640
Speaker 3: And let's go Emaul. All right. That'll do it for us.

1388
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 3: Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe Subscribe. Thanks to Colin

1389
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:50,440
Speaker 3: has always for joining me. Thanks to all of our

1390
01:07:50,480 --> 01:07:52,600
Speaker 3: audio and video people on the back end for all

1391
01:07:52,640 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 3: the great work that they do. Thanks to our sponsor

1392
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:57,880
Speaker 3: bet MGM. Make sure you check out Big Bets on

1393
01:07:57,920 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 3: Campus Live ten thirty Am Stone, myself, Colin and Brett McMurphy.

1394
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 3: We'll break down Saturday's Markee games and give our best bets.

1395
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 3: Leave a review, five star review. I don't care what

1396
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,240
Speaker 3: you say. We'll do some giveaways. Producer, I think we

1397
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:15,320
Speaker 3: have some for this week. Cut in here with them now.

1398
01:08:15,920 --> 01:08:19,559
Speaker 5: Thanks Becky. Yes, this week's winner is Club Nick Season

1399
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:24,080
Speaker 5: with his review entitled Zavin Collins. The review was mostly

1400
01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:29,639
Speaker 5: shitting all over me for having stale debo Sweeney drops,

1401
01:08:30,160 --> 01:08:34,559
Speaker 5: but it was five stars. That is how you do it. Folks,

1402
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 5: make fun of us, make fun of the show, give

1403
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:40,000
Speaker 5: us that feedback, but leave us those five stars. Please

1404
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 5: email me at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim

1405
01:08:43,920 --> 01:08:44,360
Speaker 5: your prize.

1406
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 3: I'd appreciate all of you listening. Let's keep it rolling.

1407
01:08:48,120 --> 01:08:51,960
Speaker 3: Good luck this weekend, and we'll catch you all Monday

1408
01:08:52,040 --> 01:08:54,200
Speaker 3: with a recap. Don't forget about the voicemails. Nine to

1409
01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 3: five nine cheers.

1410
01:08:56,400 --> 01:09:01,920
Speaker 2: He's out.