WEBVTT - Disney, Tapestry, Monterey, and University Endowments (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller.

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<v Speaker 2>Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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<v Speaker 2>and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.

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<v Speaker 1>Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>This is another name that kind of was on the

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<v Speaker 1>radar screen for a lot of investors. They reported numbers

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<v Speaker 1>last night a little bit better and expected people looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the streaming business the losses there, we're a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit lower. That's good. It's all part of Bob Byerker's

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<v Speaker 1>CEO's plan to cut costs here. But there's as many

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<v Speaker 1>questions around that company as I've ever seen in my

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years of covering it. Most you know, when you

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<v Speaker 1>see a business like ESPN, which is just the rock

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<v Speaker 1>solid core of this company for twenty twenty five years now,

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<v Speaker 1>you're wondering whether you even want to own it. Mark

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<v Speaker 1>Douglas joins, he's the CEO of Mountain. He knows a

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<v Speaker 1>thing or two about this business, about the media business,

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<v Speaker 1>about the digital advertising business. Hey, Mark, you take a

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<v Speaker 1>look at what is a stal war media company like Disney,

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<v Speaker 1>and boy, there are a lot of question marks there.

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<v Speaker 1>What did you what are some of the key issues

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<v Speaker 1>for you when you look at Disney?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think the fundamental issue is Disney. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>sell has magical prices for everything they do, meaning the

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<v Speaker 3>prices are generally pretty high, and I think they're not

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<v Speaker 3>really delivering magical you know, experiences and or magical content

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<v Speaker 3>right now, and they keep looking externally for whether the

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<v Speaker 3>factors that are affecting their business rather than just looking internally.

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<v Speaker 3>And so even if consumers are spending less money, then

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<v Speaker 3>deliver the magic and take a bigger share of wallet.

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<v Speaker 3>But you know, I think they're full of excuses right now,

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<v Speaker 3>and until they look at themselves, I think this kind

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<v Speaker 3>of like we're not doing as well as we used

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<v Speaker 3>to is going to continue.

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<v Speaker 2>So, uh, what's the answer on the whole streaming thing?

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<v Speaker 2>The streamers really make money?

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<v Speaker 1>Mark?

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<v Speaker 4>Because I was listening to Paul interview the head.

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<v Speaker 2>Of I think Sagraw and she was saying the streamers

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<v Speaker 2>make thirty billion a year in profits and they want

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<v Speaker 2>a piece of it.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean, obviously Netflix is definitely making money, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think you're gonna say it because Netflix, their ad

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<v Speaker 3>supported tier is you know, off to somewhat of a

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<v Speaker 3>slow start, but it's just hugely profitable for them. The

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<v Speaker 3>what they're doing in password sharing again is just hugely

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<v Speaker 3>profitable for them. And my opinion is Netflix is going

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<v Speaker 3>to kind of enter a new era of just increased

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<v Speaker 3>learnings and I think anyone else can get there, but

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<v Speaker 3>it starts with you know, people want to be in

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<v Speaker 3>the parks, people want to watch Star Wars, they want

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<v Speaker 3>to watch new Disney movies, and they want to do

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<v Speaker 3>them at the same rates that they have in the past.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think Disney can absolutely get there. I'm a

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<v Speaker 3>little concern that, you know, they're talking about reducing their

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<v Speaker 3>investment in streaming or moving away from ESPN as if

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<v Speaker 3>people don't want to watch sports anymore. And so it's

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<v Speaker 3>as you open, it's a little bit of just like

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<v Speaker 3>everything seems to be in turmoil, where you know, I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think the consumer has actually changed that much. It's

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<v Speaker 3>Disney's the one that seems to not know exactly the

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<v Speaker 3>direction they want to go.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and that even applies to the film business, which

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<v Speaker 1>had been you know, ever since they started buying all

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<v Speaker 1>these great brands like Pixar, like Marvel, like the Star

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<v Speaker 1>Wars franchises. It was literally guaranteeing them two to three

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<v Speaker 1>to four movies per year with a global gross in

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<v Speaker 1>excess of one billion dollars. Now, even that business seems

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<v Speaker 1>like it might be in a rut. They've delayed and

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<v Speaker 1>pushed out a lot of release dates. Maybe some people

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<v Speaker 1>are saying, maybe we're oversaturated with some of these franchises.

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<v Speaker 1>And then we just look at Barbie kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>new original movie that's over a billion dollars in box office.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you think Walt Disney's lost some of their

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<v Speaker 1>magic when it comes to the film business?

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<v Speaker 5>Mark?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think you know.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is we've talked about the sports on the show.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, when your team's not doing well, everyone needs

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<v Speaker 3>to remember how they catch the ball and hit right

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<v Speaker 3>like it's baseball season right now, and the best managers

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<v Speaker 3>just go back to basics. And I think Disney's problems

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<v Speaker 3>are not huge if they just go back to basics.

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<v Speaker 3>And if they go back to basics, they kind of

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<v Speaker 3>own the segment. There's these huge segments of the market, parents, children, sports,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know when you see a company that owns

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<v Speaker 3>segments of the market, I mean, just like dominate segments

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<v Speaker 3>of the market like that, and they're a little confused

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<v Speaker 3>as to what they should do, like just go back

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<v Speaker 3>to basics, get a little less focus on near turn

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<v Speaker 3>results in Wall Street, and just essentially kind of grow

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<v Speaker 3>yourself out of that. And and you know, especially when

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<v Speaker 3>you have the kind of capital that Disney has to

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<v Speaker 3>do it also, So I mean, they're not at risk

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<v Speaker 3>of running out of money unless they look their losses

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<v Speaker 3>continue for a very long time. So I mean that's

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<v Speaker 3>my advice as a CEO by by gerbviously is a

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<v Speaker 3>very smart guy, and he and and he's gonna, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>follow what he thinks his best and so we'll see

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<v Speaker 3>how this plays out.

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<v Speaker 2>You have any succession advice for Bob, Well, the last

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<v Speaker 2>one didn't go well, didn't go any better than the

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<v Speaker 2>show Succession, So.

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<v Speaker 3>I think he's gonna have to really fix this before

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<v Speaker 3>he brings in someone else to grow it. Yeah, so

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<v Speaker 3>that's it. I don't think he's there for one year.

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<v Speaker 3>I think this is going to take a few years.

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<v Speaker 6>I haven't seen the end of Succession, So we won't

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<v Speaker 6>will spoiler, won't we won't spoiler for you, Hey, Mark,

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<v Speaker 6>you know, it's just when you think about Disney, there,

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<v Speaker 6>like all the media companies really exposed to these strikes

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<v Speaker 6>that we're seeing with the writers and the actors.

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<v Speaker 1>You're so involved with the you know, the advertising side

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<v Speaker 1>of the business, the digital side of the business. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your take on the strikes? Share, because boy, both sides

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<v Speaker 1>seem really really entrenched.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Well, I think, first from what I understand, the

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<v Speaker 3>anything that was already in motion on the movie on

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<v Speaker 3>the film side is is allowed. That project is allowed

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<v Speaker 3>to get completed. So it's actually going to take a

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<v Speaker 3>few more months before like literally everything is truly shut down.

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<v Speaker 3>And then I think you know, the streamers and you

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<v Speaker 3>know the studios and things like that. I mean, cash

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<v Speaker 3>is king. They have a lot of cash to wake

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<v Speaker 3>this out. So this is it's hard to predict how

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<v Speaker 3>this is going to go. But if it's a war

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<v Speaker 3>of attrition on money, you know that's going to favor

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<v Speaker 3>these big studios just kind of waiting it out to

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<v Speaker 3>get a deal that they think is reasoned well.

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<v Speaker 2>And Disney has an added bonus that Netflix doesn't in

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<v Speaker 2>the parks business, right.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean I heard yesterday they get seventy percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Of their operating income operating income from the parks.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the good news. The bad news is it's because

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<v Speaker 1>the other businesses have gone down so much, you.

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<v Speaker 3>Know exactly the the movies in particular, I think have

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<v Speaker 3>really been hurting them.

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<v Speaker 7>You're right, then, the parks businesses of rock Solid has

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<v Speaker 7>always been the big franchises like I don't follow all

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<v Speaker 7>the superhero movies, but that and Star Wars, uh and

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<v Speaker 7>even Pixar.

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<v Speaker 2>They just haven't been as successful as they as they

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<v Speaker 2>once were, have they?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and and so I mean that again. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>the content is a part of the experiences that Disney sells,

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<v Speaker 3>and so you know they have to look inward and say,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, is this because consumers don't want to watch

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<v Speaker 3>Star Wars anymore? Or is it because maybe we're not

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<v Speaker 3>doing the greatest job and giving them what they want?

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<v Speaker 3>Because if you give them what they want, they're going

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<v Speaker 3>to watch. And so you know, it's it's it's I'm

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<v Speaker 3>going to keep eating that drum. It's back to basics

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<v Speaker 3>to grow this business.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, Mark, give us a sense of kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>advertising market out there. You're so involved on a day

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<v Speaker 1>to day basis, I can't imagine it's it's very good

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<v Speaker 1>because I mean, I'm just thinking the economics, the economic

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<v Speaker 1>environment is kind of uncertain here. What are you seeing

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<v Speaker 1>out there just in terms of overall advertising.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so if you're if your performance advertiser, your Google,

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<v Speaker 3>your meta you know metas up your over year even TikTok, Amazon,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, companies in the performance space, you continue to

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<v Speaker 3>do quite well. If you're in the brand advertising space,

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<v Speaker 3>more of the big TV networks, they it's a bit

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<v Speaker 3>up and down. It's just literally I think month to month,

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<v Speaker 3>the budgets are going up, they're going down. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>not like this huge era growth right now. But it's

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<v Speaker 3>also not like a blood bath. I think that the

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<v Speaker 3>you know kind of retraction and spending on brand advertising

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<v Speaker 3>has already occurred and it's just a little less predictable.

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<v Speaker 3>But overall, I think, you know, from everyone I talk

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<v Speaker 3>in the industry, my own experience at Mountain, it's, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it's pretty it's relatively solid. Given the you know kind

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<v Speaker 3>of how much the economy and the and economic news

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<v Speaker 3>are just constantly up and down. It's pretty consistent right now, all.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Mark great stuff is always Mark Doug As President

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<v Speaker 1>and CEO of Mountain, giving kind of hists on what

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<v Speaker 1>we saw from Disney and some of the streamers.

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<v Speaker 8>You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 8>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern.

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<v Speaker 9>On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio.

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<v Speaker 8>App and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand

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<v Speaker 1>Makes a little m and a trade Today in the

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<v Speaker 1>luxury space. Tapestry again one of the worst names in

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<v Speaker 1>the business. They own the brands, including Coach and Kate Spade.

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<v Speaker 1>They agreed to require Michael Core's parent Capri Holdings and

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<v Speaker 1>an eight point five billion dollar deal to bring it

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<v Speaker 1>down for us. Kritti Gupta, host of Bloomberg Surveillance Early Edition,

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<v Speaker 1>joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Pretty

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<v Speaker 1>big names here, Uh critie, what do you make of it?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 10>I don't think Tapestry and Capri necessarily resonates with everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>But when you hear the names Jimmy.

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<v Speaker 10>Choo Versachi, Kate Spade, Coach, perhaps some bells will ring

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<v Speaker 10>and look, these are the two parent companies that, frankly

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<v Speaker 10>have both been struggling. We know luxury. When you think luxury,

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<v Speaker 10>you don't think the US necessarily. You think you're PM luxury,

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<v Speaker 10>You think Rimez, you think Louis, et cetera. But it's

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<v Speaker 10>the same model that these folks are trying to basically

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<v Speaker 10>make in the US sphere. The problem is that the

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<v Speaker 10>appetite for luxury in the US is not the same

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<v Speaker 10>as it is in Europe or the Middle East or China.

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<v Speaker 11>For example.

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<v Speaker 1>Why I go down Fifth Avenue, go down Madison Avenue

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<v Speaker 1>and it seems like all the brands are there.

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<v Speaker 10>Sure that's not a representation of America, I gotta say.

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<v Speaker 10>And that's I think where the value get at him.

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<v Speaker 11>You got to go to Dallas, Texas.

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<v Speaker 10>I'm going to give you a tour, and I'm going

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<v Speaker 10>to show you what it's like to live in Middle America.

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<v Speaker 10>Forwarth America. Forwarth, Texas is great and one of the

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<v Speaker 10>fastest growing cities in the country, I should say, But.

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<v Speaker 11>Here's the point.

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<v Speaker 10>As you have this kind of wealth developing around the country,

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<v Speaker 10>you need more access to some of these brands. And

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<v Speaker 10>that's where Michael Cores the basically the founder of Capri Holdings,

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<v Speaker 10>and Michael Cours the brand comes in handy because one

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<v Speaker 10>of his major value ads is taking these really well

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<v Speaker 10>known names Jimmy chou versace, et cetera, and making them

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<v Speaker 10>more accessible to mainstream Americans by lowering down the price point,

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<v Speaker 10>increasing the manufacturing. It's no longer an elite exclusive thing

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<v Speaker 10>to get a pair of Jimmy Chow's shoes. Sure, it's inventive,

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<v Speaker 10>it is. It's expensive, how much as expensive as they were?

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<v Speaker 10>I think a pair goes around for like seven hundred dollars.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, that's luxury, hold on, that's exclusive.

0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:13.880
<v Speaker 10>It is one hundred percent, but it's not as expensive

0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:15.880
<v Speaker 10>as like, say the two thousand they used to go for.

0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.560
<v Speaker 10>That's the point before the acquisition. So the price point

0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.200
<v Speaker 10>has actually come down and become more attainable. And if

0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:23.280
<v Speaker 10>you go to any mall in America, there is a

0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:24.440
<v Speaker 10>Michael Core store there.

0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.080
<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's not normal for a luxury Michael Cores. But

0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:29.280
<v Speaker 2>can you buy Jimmy Chew's shoes also at any mall

0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:29.840
<v Speaker 2>in America?

0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:30.320
<v Speaker 5>No?

0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.559
<v Speaker 11>But okay, they're heading in that direction. We are, we were.

0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:36.160
<v Speaker 4>And we have your no idea.

0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:40.720
<v Speaker 2>Ohio, I am, but I'm not shopping for Michael Cores

0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:41.439
<v Speaker 2>or Jimmy Chew.

0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:43.840
<v Speaker 10>In fact, you will soon now that your girl dad.

0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:48.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, we were trying to make the distinction between you know,

0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.360
<v Speaker 2>something like Coach, which I don't think they would define

0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:55.520
<v Speaker 2>themselves as a luxury uh product maker, and something like

0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:58.560
<v Speaker 2>Versace and they definitely would describe themselves as luxury.

0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:02.080
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, well used to be and they used to This

0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:03.880
<v Speaker 10>is I think the point they used to be they

0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:06.640
<v Speaker 10>thought of as a luxury brand. I'll give you another example

0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.400
<v Speaker 10>with Coach, although they make seventy percent of tapestries revenue.

0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:11.199
<v Speaker 10>You have Stuart Whitzman and Kate Spade. When do you

0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:12.920
<v Speaker 10>think Stuart Whitesman do you think luxury?

0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:14.240
<v Speaker 4>I don't know who's Stuart Whitesman.

0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.000
<v Speaker 10>Oh my god, you're killing me. I'm in a studio

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:18.280
<v Speaker 10>full of guys. This isn't fair.

0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:19.920
<v Speaker 11>I can't make my point.

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 10>But Kate Spade, Come on, okay, Kate's Spade is luxury.

0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:23.320
<v Speaker 12>Yet.

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.360
<v Speaker 10>Now, if you go to any mall in America, you

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.680
<v Speaker 10>can find Kate's Bade. If you go to a thirty

0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:30.880
<v Speaker 10>Rock or Rockefeller Plaza, there's Kate's bad.

0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:31.880
<v Speaker 11>Same thing with Sarrovski.

0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:33.840
<v Speaker 10>There are these names that used to be very elite

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.920
<v Speaker 10>very expensive that are now far more accessible, far more

0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 10>household names. And that's because of this kind of move that.

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 11>Tapestry and Kate's bade. I know, Caprie Holdings well done.

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:45.840
<v Speaker 2>The thing is what you're right, You're right about that, right,

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.760
<v Speaker 2>because Kate Spade coach Michael Core's, these are things that

0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:51.840
<v Speaker 2>are all in the mall, and not just the mall

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:55.040
<v Speaker 2>in the middle of Manhattan, one of the most expensive

0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:56.760
<v Speaker 2>cities in the world. But I'm all in the middle

0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.200
<v Speaker 2>of Columbus, Ohio, which is where I tend to go

0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:03.320
<v Speaker 2>to mall's exactly. So, but those things they go down

0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.960
<v Speaker 2>market in order to get mass market, right, right.

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:08.280
<v Speaker 10>But that's the value add That's what Michael Core's has

0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 10>done with a lot of these brands. And that's one

0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:11.520
<v Speaker 10>of his criticisms as well. For the folks who are

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.280
<v Speaker 10>very high fashion. They're saying, look, you're cheapening the brand

0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.520
<v Speaker 10>by making it so accessible mainstream. But then if you

0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:19.240
<v Speaker 10>look at the profit and the turnover, well, the top

0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 10>line growth for some of these companies that they're acquiring

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.079
<v Speaker 10>is immense because all of a sudden you're accessing people

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:28.520
<v Speaker 10>in I don't know, Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Texas that you

0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.680
<v Speaker 10>wouldn't have ordinarily, and that's a really big deal.

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.920
<v Speaker 1>Is there a consolidation wave going on in the luxury

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 1>space and if so, why There.

0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:39.559
<v Speaker 10>Definitely is, and it's simply because one in the US specifically,

0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.000
<v Speaker 10>I think it's going a bit faster than it is

0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:44.160
<v Speaker 10>in the likes of Europe, for example. But the wave

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 10>of consolidation in the US is largely driven by trying

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.400
<v Speaker 10>to apply the European model to the US and it

0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 10>not really working. So you have seen Tapestry and capre

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 10>Holdings separately, their stock has been tanking. These are companies

0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.320
<v Speaker 10>that have been struggling relative to some of their international peers.

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 11>But you're also that wave of consolidation in Europe.

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 10>You're seeing in some of the Middle Eastern brands as well,

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 10>because the Chinese consumer, which has been driving a lot

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 10>of the luxury buying, has been slowing do well.

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 1>That's why the news coming out of China, which is

0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.560
<v Speaker 1>they're basically going to let the people move about go

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 1>anywhere they want, So that's going to presumably help Chinese

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.880
<v Speaker 1>outgoing tourism outside of China, outside of Macau, where they've

0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 1>generally been going to Europe to the US, and I

0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 1>hope to see our Chinese shoppers on Fifth Avenue on

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>Madison Avenue like we used to pre pandemic. Those folks

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 1>have money and they like to spend on the luxury brands.

0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.200
<v Speaker 1>And I know the stores that are again on Fifth Avenue,

0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Madison Avenue. They depend on those and.

0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.280
<v Speaker 2>I hope they're not buying as much or with as

0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 2>much money as they had been in the past, because

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:46.680
<v Speaker 2>they drove the price of some of the products that

0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 2>I like way up. For example, Rolex watches on the

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 2>secondhand market, those prices were far higher. I'm talking two x,

0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:59.320
<v Speaker 2>three x four x of manufacturing suggested retail price, and

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 2>they finally, I have been coming back down high end

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.320
<v Speaker 2>watch prices. And when I saw that story this morning,

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 2>the first thing I thought is, oh no.

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:06.520
<v Speaker 9>Well.

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 1>The first thing I thought was Sam Fizzelli, my wine

0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 1>expert and it also covers pharmaceuticals for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's

0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:14.880
<v Speaker 1>a big wine guy. He lives in London and lives

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 1>in France. Big wine guy. He was just explaining to

0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>me over the last you know, ten years, how the

0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 1>Chinese have just really rocked the wine market and pushed prices,

0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:26.960
<v Speaker 1>particularly for fine, French wines way higher, but they've been

0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 1>out of the market.

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, it's funny how we talk about the Chinese consumer

0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 10>almost like we talked about the American consumer. I mean,

0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 10>of course, the US spending power is still significantly higher,

0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 10>but now we actually have to worry about not just

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.680
<v Speaker 10>Chinese exports but Chinese imports as well, which I think

0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:42.160
<v Speaker 10>really really speaks to the strength of the country as well.

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:44.400
<v Speaker 10>And to your point on that headline, you saw the

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:48.120
<v Speaker 10>European brand specifically, like the Richemont for example, all rally

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:49.760
<v Speaker 10>this morning in the European session, so.

0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:51.000
<v Speaker 11>A massive move there.

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 10>And I also add, I mean we're talking about China

0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:54.800
<v Speaker 10>in the US, but I really think the Middle East

0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 10>is worth thinking about as well, because if you go

0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 10>to London, you go to what's the high Street London.

0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:01.720
<v Speaker 11>I should know this.

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.800
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I like the King's Road Kensington.

0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 10>If you go to like anywhere in Kensington or Chelsea

0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 10>or whatever, there's so many Middle Eastern people from the

0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:09.760
<v Speaker 10>Middle Eastern shoppers.

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:11.200
<v Speaker 1>And the cars they have, yeah, are pretty cool. So

0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at Tapes Street. The stocks down eleven and

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:14.760
<v Speaker 1>a half percent, so I guess the market doesn't like

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 1>I say, paid a big premium here.

0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, it's like a sixty five percent premium, and.

0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 1>Not that the market's not in it for Tap Street,

0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>so maybe a dilution concern there for those Oxford streets.

0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:26.800
<v Speaker 11>Oxford Street is another one.

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:28.560
<v Speaker 4>There are a number of high streets in London.

0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:30.640
<v Speaker 2>And it's funny to hear that question from you because

0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 2>the term high street, I think, is a British term, right,

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 2>And you're going to be moving to London soon, I am,

0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 2>So you'll be walking up and down Oxford Street.

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.120
<v Speaker 1>Youre going to acquire a little bit of an accent,

0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:42.480
<v Speaker 1>do you think.

0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 11>No, I'm gonna go over. I'm gonna start saying y'all.

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.040
<v Speaker 2>And I was gonna say, she's from Dallas and she

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:49.680
<v Speaker 2>doesn't have an accent from there.

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 11>So well, that took work, you know, I had to.

0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 10>I went to UVA and the first thing they asked

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 10>me was did you drive horses to school and Dallas?

0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:59.080
<v Speaker 10>And I said no, But why would you think? Then

0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 10>they said, because you say you'll every second word.

0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:02.120
<v Speaker 11>That was the end of it.

0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.439
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes, you know, even in Virginia, go to southern Virginia, it's.

0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.560
<v Speaker 4>To embrace y'all, To be honest, have you.

0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 11>It's a very useful word as opposed to.

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.520
<v Speaker 4>Oh well, don't ruin it. Oh oh it's a secret.

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:18.000
<v Speaker 10>Oh never mind, where Matt plans all my spares? He

0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 10>throw me a little birthday spare.

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:21.440
<v Speaker 1>When are you going through? That was the end of

0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.040
<v Speaker 1>the end of August of August.

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:26.640
<v Speaker 11>Oh, anyone want to come over and pack because.

0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:29.200
<v Speaker 1>It's fun, That's right? Okay, all right, So pritty Gupta

0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 1>with the reporting here today, A little M and a

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:36.439
<v Speaker 1>trade in the luxury tapestry buying capri.

0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.919
<v Speaker 8>You're listening to the tape catch are Live program Bloomberg

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.600
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0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.720
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0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:46.840
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0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:49.719
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0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:54.840
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0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.119
<v Speaker 1>Let's put this in the context. Lydia Bosor can do that.

0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:02.000
<v Speaker 1>She's a senior economist at e Why Parthenon and she

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.439
<v Speaker 1>joins us here, Lydia, what's your take here as you

0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:07.639
<v Speaker 1>dig into some of the inflation data we got today?

0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:13.640
<v Speaker 5>Sure, I mean the report was encouraging. We saw that

0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.920
<v Speaker 5>back to back, the smallest back to back increasing in

0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:20.360
<v Speaker 5>core inflation. As you mentioned, since early twenty twenty one.

0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 5>We also look at those three months annual life train

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:27.159
<v Speaker 5>for both headline and core inflation, and here as well,

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.320
<v Speaker 5>we saw a significant slowdown. If we dig a little

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:33.720
<v Speaker 5>deeper in the component, we are seeing that these inflation

0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:37.159
<v Speaker 5>in use car prices which declined in July, and we

0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.879
<v Speaker 5>think that there is more than more pressure coming. And

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.680
<v Speaker 5>on the housing front, we have also seen a turn

0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.720
<v Speaker 5>in housing inflation and we're starting to see also some

0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 5>gradual disinflation. So overall, I think it's one more step

0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:51.880
<v Speaker 5>in the right direction when it comes to inflation.

0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:57.360
<v Speaker 2>Can you look at, for example, car prices coming down.

0:18:57.400 --> 0:18:59.560
<v Speaker 2>Can you look at the credit that being given out

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 2>for those kind of loans to help you forecast what's coming,

0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 2>because I noticed that non revolving credit actually jumped quite

0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.720
<v Speaker 2>a bit last month after stagnating for a few months,

0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.720
<v Speaker 2>and a huge part of that was car loans. You know,

0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:16.880
<v Speaker 2>My concern, LYDIA is that these numbers bounce back as

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.800
<v Speaker 2>the economy continues to do so well they do.

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.280
<v Speaker 5>I think what we've seen in the auto sector has

0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 5>been quite unique. We still have this imbalance between the

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:28.679
<v Speaker 5>supply and the man and that has created some volatility

0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.119
<v Speaker 5>in the sector. So I think, you know, when we

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:35.920
<v Speaker 5>look at auction prices, they tend to lead uscalu prices

0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 5>in the CPI, So I think that we're likely to

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.840
<v Speaker 5>see more downward pressure, but there's likely to be some

0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:44.040
<v Speaker 5>volatility as well, as you're pointing out.

0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:49.160
<v Speaker 1>All right Lydia. Given what we see on inflation coming down,

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:53.800
<v Speaker 1>the FED appears to be standing pat maybe one more

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:56.600
<v Speaker 1>rate increase. How do you put that on the context

0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:57.920
<v Speaker 1>with an economic outlook?

0:19:57.960 --> 0:19:58.200
<v Speaker 9>Here?

0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:00.080
<v Speaker 1>Are you guys thinking that there is a recession in

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:02.960
<v Speaker 1>the near term? I mean, I know what recession is

0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:04.679
<v Speaker 1>going to come at some point, but are you in

0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:06.400
<v Speaker 1>the campus as it's near term or can we put

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:09.480
<v Speaker 1>this on the on the back burner a little bit sure?

0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 5>In terms of inflation, we're I think we're heading in

0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:15.560
<v Speaker 5>the right direction. I think the Fed, we look at

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 5>these numbers, as you know, some convincing progress. I when

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:22.080
<v Speaker 5>we look at the economic outlook at the same time,

0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:25.480
<v Speaker 5>we've seen some economic resilience, but we do expect to

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:29.080
<v Speaker 5>see softer economic momentum in the second half of the year.

0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.280
<v Speaker 5>So if you look at economic growth. We are anticipating

0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:37.359
<v Speaker 5>to see growth, you know, flirting with with essentially zero

0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:40.560
<v Speaker 5>heading into twenty twenty four. And at the same time,

0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:43.760
<v Speaker 5>inflation is also likely to remain in that in that

0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:47.200
<v Speaker 5>this inflation trend and overall that should make the FED,

0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.040
<v Speaker 5>you know, comfortable enough to stay on the on the sidelines.

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:53.480
<v Speaker 5>And we do think that the FED has reached the

0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 5>end of its hiking cycle and that the July ry

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:56.720
<v Speaker 5>type was.

0:20:56.680 --> 0:21:01.640
<v Speaker 2>The last one, even if we don't see core inflation

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 2>continued come down. I mean, everyone's kind of taking a

0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:09.320
<v Speaker 2>victory lap today, but it's still CPI minus food and

0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:12.720
<v Speaker 2>energy year over year four point seven percent. That's more

0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 2>than twice as much as the FED wants it to be.

0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:18.919
<v Speaker 2>So don't they need to at least be seen putting

0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:22.320
<v Speaker 2>some pressure on actively driving it down until it gets

0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:22.680
<v Speaker 2>to two?

0:21:23.760 --> 0:21:24.399
<v Speaker 5>Yes, that's right.

0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:25.840
<v Speaker 4>The Fed will be very careful.

0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:30.639
<v Speaker 5>I think that if they do pose in September, they

0:21:30.680 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 5>will retain a Hockeish bias and they will keep the

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:37.479
<v Speaker 5>door open to further tightening if the data justifies it.

0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 5>The FED is really data dependent. We're going to get

0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 5>another CPI report in August. We're likely to see some

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:47.959
<v Speaker 5>renewed the poor pressure on headline inflation. We're also seeing

0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:54.200
<v Speaker 5>oil prices rise again and that's potentially likely to lift

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:57.359
<v Speaker 5>headline inflation as well. But we do think that core

0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 5>inflation will continue to ease a further towards the end

0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.600
<v Speaker 5>of the year. There's a lot of this inflation baked

0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 5>in on the housing front and that's likely to pull

0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:09.920
<v Speaker 5>down course services inflation, and the FED will be looking

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:13.560
<v Speaker 5>at that as some you know, some progress towards getting

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:16.600
<v Speaker 5>inflation back to their target LYDIA.

0:22:16.640 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 1>So we've got it. Seems like inflation is you know,

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:21.159
<v Speaker 1>trending in the right direction here in the US, but

0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:23.920
<v Speaker 1>how about Europe. It just seems so much more entrenched there,

0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:27.439
<v Speaker 1>particularly in the UK. What do you expect the central

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 1>banks across Europe to do?

0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:34.480
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think in Europe we're seeing infliction dynamics that

0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:38.520
<v Speaker 5>are still elevated, but we've also started to see some progress.

0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:43.080
<v Speaker 5>We're seeing very tight label market conditions in Europe and

0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:47.080
<v Speaker 5>that's one factor behind you know, the resilience of inflation

0:22:47.359 --> 0:22:49.600
<v Speaker 5>as as we look as we look ahead, I think

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:52.400
<v Speaker 5>we've seen that slow down in the pace of tightening

0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:56.359
<v Speaker 5>also in Europe and They're likely also to reach the

0:22:56.480 --> 0:22:59.399
<v Speaker 5>end of their titanic cycle this year. I think when

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:02.640
<v Speaker 5>we look at at the FED, it's a little ahead

0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 5>in the cycle. As I said, we're probably at the

0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:09.159
<v Speaker 5>end of the of the hiking cycle. And we do

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:13.359
<v Speaker 5>see the FED cutting interest rates likely in March, not

0:23:13.520 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 5>before March, but likely next year as they start with

0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:17.920
<v Speaker 5>calibrating policy.

0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:21.840
<v Speaker 4>All right, So, uh, the economy.

0:23:21.920 --> 0:23:24.560
<v Speaker 2>The economic picture though is different for Europe, right, I mean,

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:28.439
<v Speaker 2>here we're looking at still more than two percent GDP

0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:31.480
<v Speaker 2>growth and over there they're already stagnating.

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:32.680
<v Speaker 4>Do they hit a recession?

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:37.439
<v Speaker 5>There is a high chance I think that that, you know,

0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:40.679
<v Speaker 5>we could see some recessions in in Europe. We are

0:23:40.800 --> 0:23:44.920
<v Speaker 5>likely to see i think, across most advanced economies economic

0:23:44.960 --> 0:23:50.120
<v Speaker 5>growth you know, flirting with full speed growth essentially this

0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 5>this year. And so I think that really when we

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:57.960
<v Speaker 5>look at global growth, Europe, US and are likely to

0:23:58.000 --> 0:24:02.359
<v Speaker 5>be those economies slowing down growth and we're likely to

0:24:02.400 --> 0:24:05.440
<v Speaker 5>see you know, global growth slowing this year and then

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:07.640
<v Speaker 5>gradually rebound into twenty twenty four.

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:13.120
<v Speaker 1>LYDIA thirty seconds. What's your economic what's your labor forecast?

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:13.239
<v Speaker 7>Here?

0:24:13.280 --> 0:24:15.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, is we're going to see unemployment go above

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:17.520
<v Speaker 1>four percent anytime soon.

0:24:19.560 --> 0:24:22.639
<v Speaker 5>Yes, we do have you know, a further softening in

0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:26.439
<v Speaker 5>the label market. We think that this gradual rebalancing that

0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:29.440
<v Speaker 5>we have started to see will continue. So we expect

0:24:29.440 --> 0:24:32.639
<v Speaker 5>to see a gradual rise in the unemployment rate towards

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:35.840
<v Speaker 5>you know, for a little bout four percent by the

0:24:35.840 --> 0:24:38.640
<v Speaker 5>middle of the next year. And that's going to reflect

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:41.639
<v Speaker 5>the fact that labor demand is going to cool further.

0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:45.920
<v Speaker 5>We're already we're already seeing that happening and hiring slow

0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:49.399
<v Speaker 5>down further, as well as we have your software demand

0:24:49.440 --> 0:24:52.480
<v Speaker 5>and softer economic conditions taking in in the economy.

0:24:52.640 --> 0:24:55.360
<v Speaker 1>All right, Lydia, that's really really helpful. We really appreciate

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:59.160
<v Speaker 1>checking in with you, Lydia Bosour Senior economists e Hy

0:24:59.440 --> 0:25:01.840
<v Speaker 1>Partha I is the firm.

0:25:02.000 --> 0:25:05.360
<v Speaker 8>You're listening to the team Ken's her live program Bloomberg

0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:08.879
<v Speaker 8>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 8>the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen

0:25:12.119 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 8>on demand wherever you get your podcast.

0:25:16.800 --> 0:25:18.840
<v Speaker 1>All right, the markets like what they saw from the

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:21.479
<v Speaker 1>inflation print today, Let's check with somebody who actually does

0:25:21.520 --> 0:25:23.919
<v Speaker 1>this stuff for living a deal Zaman. He's a partner

0:25:23.920 --> 0:25:25.760
<v Speaker 1>for Wall Street Alliance joint us live here in a

0:25:25.760 --> 0:25:29.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive broker studio a deal. I like the print today.

0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 1>Matt thinks inflation is still too high. I'm a friend

0:25:31.840 --> 0:25:34.200
<v Speaker 1>of the trend. I like the trends coming down. That's

0:25:34.240 --> 0:25:36.879
<v Speaker 1>what I'm focusing on. How did you view the CPI

0:25:36.960 --> 0:25:38.879
<v Speaker 1>print today and how does an impact kind of how

0:25:38.920 --> 0:25:40.080
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking about these markets?

0:25:40.480 --> 0:25:42.880
<v Speaker 13>So great to be with you. So we were very

0:25:42.920 --> 0:25:45.600
<v Speaker 13>positive on this print, and you know the FED vasion

0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 13>of war against the forty year high inflation by raising

0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:51.000
<v Speaker 13>interest rates to a twenty two year high. And it's

0:25:51.040 --> 0:25:53.879
<v Speaker 13>clear that the Fed has won this war right. Inflation

0:25:54.040 --> 0:25:57.439
<v Speaker 13>has come down from around nine percent down to around

0:25:57.440 --> 0:26:00.280
<v Speaker 13>three point two percent. I think this is construct for

0:26:00.320 --> 0:26:02.439
<v Speaker 13>the equity markets in the long term.

0:26:02.720 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 2>Is there are you not concerned that there's a chance

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:06.280
<v Speaker 2>it comes back.

0:26:08.600 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 13>Well, what we think is that from this point onwards,

0:26:12.240 --> 0:26:14.959
<v Speaker 13>the inflation will most likely start to cool off on

0:26:15.000 --> 0:26:17.640
<v Speaker 13>its own, because even if you look at the unemployment rate,

0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:21.040
<v Speaker 13>we think that it is understated right now because a

0:26:21.080 --> 0:26:23.159
<v Speaker 13>lot of the layoffs have been in the tech space

0:26:23.640 --> 0:26:25.679
<v Speaker 13>and a lot of those workers are high earners, so

0:26:25.720 --> 0:26:29.720
<v Speaker 13>they're not necessarily claiming unemployment benefits. And also, you know,

0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:31.840
<v Speaker 13>the FED is going to be very careful about not

0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 13>damaging the unemployment rate too much in this politically charged environment.

0:26:36.200 --> 0:26:37.960
<v Speaker 13>So we think it's going to start to cool off

0:26:38.000 --> 0:26:39.760
<v Speaker 13>on its own from this point onwards.

0:26:39.920 --> 0:26:44.479
<v Speaker 2>I just saw total consumer credit rose seventeen point eight

0:26:44.560 --> 0:26:49.600
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars last month. There was a small monthly increase before,

0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:52.880
<v Speaker 2>so credit had kind of stagnated, but now it's come

0:26:53.320 --> 0:26:59.399
<v Speaker 2>roaring back, especially student loans and auto loans. And you know,

0:26:59.480 --> 0:27:02.719
<v Speaker 2>if people are able to weather seven or eight percent

0:27:02.800 --> 0:27:05.040
<v Speaker 2>auto loans and are still willing to go pay these

0:27:06.000 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 2>incredibly high prices for vehicles, I feel like, you know,

0:27:10.359 --> 0:27:12.919
<v Speaker 2>they could push inflation higher, they could bounce it back.

0:27:12.840 --> 0:27:14.240
<v Speaker 9>Up fair point.

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:17.520
<v Speaker 13>But I also feel that, you know that at some point,

0:27:17.720 --> 0:27:22.000
<v Speaker 13>this excess savings that people have from the pandemic, they're

0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:24.000
<v Speaker 13>going to run out of it. And when they run

0:27:24.040 --> 0:27:26.040
<v Speaker 13>out of it, you know, they'll start cutting back on

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:28.440
<v Speaker 13>some of the services. Right, So they'll start they'll stop

0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:32.560
<v Speaker 13>going to Bloomingdale's and they'll start going to Costco. Right,

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:34.920
<v Speaker 13>so they'll they'll become more budget conscious. And I think

0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:37.480
<v Speaker 13>that will also start to bring inflation down, and the

0:27:37.560 --> 0:27:38.520
<v Speaker 13>data is supporting that.

0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:39.200
<v Speaker 9>All right.

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 1>So given that backdrop, a deal of a benign inflation outlook,

0:27:43.160 --> 0:27:46.840
<v Speaker 1>still decent economic growth, although slower than what we've seen.

0:27:48.119 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 1>What do you do here? Are you equities? Fixed income?

0:27:52.119 --> 0:27:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Where do you start?

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:57.280
<v Speaker 13>Well, fixed income is also very attractive overhead, but if

0:27:57.320 --> 0:27:59.320
<v Speaker 13>we take a longer term point of view, I think

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:02.080
<v Speaker 13>equities is where you get the most bang for your buck.

0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:04.760
<v Speaker 13>We are of the school of thought that we think

0:28:04.760 --> 0:28:06.479
<v Speaker 13>in the short term you're going to get a correction

0:28:06.560 --> 0:28:09.439
<v Speaker 13>in the market because seasonally this is a week period

0:28:09.480 --> 0:28:12.400
<v Speaker 13>of the year. So on the equity side, we would

0:28:12.440 --> 0:28:16.199
<v Speaker 13>be looking at opportunities on a pullback. The two parts

0:28:16.240 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 13>of the market that we like over here is the

0:28:18.119 --> 0:28:22.560
<v Speaker 13>high quality momentum areas and then the less love stocks

0:28:22.560 --> 0:28:25.480
<v Speaker 13>that haven't participated in the rally so far, So we

0:28:25.520 --> 0:28:29.360
<v Speaker 13>would be looking at opportunistically on those areas on a pullback.

0:28:29.359 --> 0:28:31.639
<v Speaker 1>All right. So that means is that the Metas of

0:28:31.680 --> 0:28:34.200
<v Speaker 1>the world, the Googles of the world, the Amazons, you look,

0:28:34.240 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 1>you buy them on a pullback or kind of what's

0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:36.840
<v Speaker 1>that first group for you?

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:40.520
<v Speaker 13>Yes, So that would be certainly that's one group of stocks.

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:43.640
<v Speaker 13>The stocks on our watch list, for example, Apple and Meta.

0:28:43.720 --> 0:28:45.800
<v Speaker 13>You know, Apple just came out with the earnings. The

0:28:45.800 --> 0:28:48.880
<v Speaker 13>street did not like it because the iPhone sales went down,

0:28:49.320 --> 0:28:52.320
<v Speaker 13>but we actually saw strength over there because we saw

0:28:52.360 --> 0:28:55.160
<v Speaker 13>their service business grow, which is, you know, the profit

0:28:55.200 --> 0:28:58.520
<v Speaker 13>margins almost double that of the product business. So those

0:28:58.520 --> 0:29:00.880
<v Speaker 13>are the type of areas that we'd be very interested

0:29:00.880 --> 0:29:01.720
<v Speaker 13>in on a pullback.

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:06.160
<v Speaker 2>What do you think about I mean rates at this level,

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 2>you're going to want to lock those in. Don't you

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:10.360
<v Speaker 2>think that a lot of people are going to want

0:29:10.360 --> 0:29:12.959
<v Speaker 2>to lock in four year, four percent, ten years.

0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:16.160
<v Speaker 13>Yes, Actually, we have a lot of clients that have

0:29:17.000 --> 0:29:19.640
<v Speaker 13>cash that are looking to lock in good rates. So

0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:22.040
<v Speaker 13>certainly I think that's in the short term that is

0:29:22.080 --> 0:29:25.640
<v Speaker 13>going to be a headwind in the market, But I

0:29:25.680 --> 0:29:28.720
<v Speaker 13>think that in the long term you get better risk

0:29:28.760 --> 0:29:30.480
<v Speaker 13>adjusted returns on the equities.

0:29:30.960 --> 0:29:31.360
<v Speaker 9>All right.

0:29:31.400 --> 0:29:35.160
<v Speaker 1>So, I mean Matt's been overweight, you know those Magnificent seven.

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:37.560
<v Speaker 1>Me not so much. So if I'm looking for this

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:39.560
<v Speaker 1>market to kind of broaden out a little bit, because

0:29:39.560 --> 0:29:41.520
<v Speaker 1>I think I need to see that for just the

0:29:41.560 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 1>health of the market. If I don't own the magnificent seven.

0:29:44.400 --> 0:29:46.480
<v Speaker 1>If I don't want to go chase those things, where

0:29:46.480 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 1>do I go?

0:29:47.400 --> 0:29:49.680
<v Speaker 4>Or should I take profits and get in.

0:29:49.600 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 1>You let it ride, just let it ride.

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:55.040
<v Speaker 13>Well, I agree with you completely like that. If you

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 13>look at the I SNP five hundred up until the

0:29:57.040 --> 0:29:59.320
<v Speaker 13>end of last month, it was up about nineteen point

0:29:59.400 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 13>six percent. You look at the equal weight index, it

0:30:01.640 --> 0:30:04.280
<v Speaker 13>was up about nine point six percent. So I would

0:30:04.280 --> 0:30:06.800
<v Speaker 13>be looking at some of the less love stocks like

0:30:06.880 --> 0:30:10.280
<v Speaker 13>for example, another stock on our watch list is home Depot. Right,

0:30:10.320 --> 0:30:12.920
<v Speaker 13>so home Depot did really well during the pandemic because

0:30:12.920 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 13>we were trapped in our homes and we just wanted

0:30:14.840 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 13>to improve our living experience. Since then, the demand has subsided,

0:30:18.680 --> 0:30:21.800
<v Speaker 13>but we still see a great long term potential because

0:30:21.800 --> 0:30:23.920
<v Speaker 13>in the US we have a housing shortage and people

0:30:23.960 --> 0:30:26.440
<v Speaker 13>do have to upgrade their homes, which benefits a company

0:30:26.480 --> 0:30:27.200
<v Speaker 13>like home Depot.

0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:31.880
<v Speaker 4>And you own home Depot, you also own Apple. I

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:35.720
<v Speaker 4>feel like the market has soured a bit.

0:30:35.800 --> 0:30:38.160
<v Speaker 2>Well, clearly they've come down below the three trillion dollar

0:30:38.240 --> 0:30:41.120
<v Speaker 2>value and we see iPhone sales stagnating.

0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:43.640
<v Speaker 4>Why do you own Apple longer term?

0:30:44.200 --> 0:30:47.480
<v Speaker 13>So we think that you know the service business, there's

0:30:47.520 --> 0:30:49.800
<v Speaker 13>a lot of strength over there, so we like that.

0:30:50.120 --> 0:30:53.120
<v Speaker 13>And then also we think that the iPhone fifteen release

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:56.280
<v Speaker 13>could be a significant upgrade. You know, the quality of

0:30:56.320 --> 0:30:59.160
<v Speaker 13>our phones are improving, so we are holding onto our

0:30:59.160 --> 0:31:01.880
<v Speaker 13>phones longer before we upgrading it. So I think this

0:31:02.000 --> 0:31:05.200
<v Speaker 13>upcoming release of iPhone fifteen could be a good catalyst.

0:31:05.400 --> 0:31:07.160
<v Speaker 13>So and company pays are good dividend.

0:31:07.240 --> 0:31:08.480
<v Speaker 4>So I just don't know what's going to change.

0:31:08.480 --> 0:31:11.959
<v Speaker 2>The phones that Paul and I have are already capable

0:31:12.000 --> 0:31:12.880
<v Speaker 2>of everything we need to do.

0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:15.360
<v Speaker 1>I got an iPhone eleven. Yeah, that's what I got.

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:17.520
<v Speaker 1>I might upgrade, though, I'm going to take you to

0:31:17.560 --> 0:31:20.280
<v Speaker 1>task on this apple. Every time I see Tim Cook,

0:31:20.280 --> 0:31:22.240
<v Speaker 1>I say you got to raise your dividend. You've got

0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 1>to dive it in less than one percent, man, up

0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:25.800
<v Speaker 1>go to three percent, three and a half percent. Are

0:31:25.840 --> 0:31:28.520
<v Speaker 1>you surprised that they don't do that? With all the

0:31:28.560 --> 0:31:30.600
<v Speaker 1>cash they have on the bouncey, all the free cash

0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:33.120
<v Speaker 1>flow they have, I think that they should raise their dividend.

0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:36.360
<v Speaker 13>Well yeah, I mean they're they're entering into a different

0:31:36.360 --> 0:31:38.960
<v Speaker 13>phase of the business, and I think they are doing

0:31:39.080 --> 0:31:41.520
<v Speaker 13>great with the share buybacks, and I think, you know,

0:31:42.080 --> 0:31:44.160
<v Speaker 13>I think they have a lot more going on for

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:46.920
<v Speaker 13>them in other areas which they want to keep their

0:31:46.920 --> 0:31:48.200
<v Speaker 13>cash to take advantage of.

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:52.640
<v Speaker 1>How about energy, you know, there's a sector that for

0:31:52.640 --> 0:31:54.720
<v Speaker 1>a decade nobody cared about because you know, it was

0:31:54.760 --> 0:31:56.440
<v Speaker 1>peak oil and we're all going green. And then it's

0:31:56.440 --> 0:31:59.080
<v Speaker 1>had a nice couple three years here, uh, and now

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:01.960
<v Speaker 1>we've got WTI oil, you know, back up at almost

0:32:01.960 --> 0:32:04.200
<v Speaker 1>eighty four dollars a barrel. Do you guys traffic in

0:32:04.240 --> 0:32:05.240
<v Speaker 1>the energy space at all?

0:32:06.000 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 13>We actually, you know, we actually think oil is headed

0:32:08.520 --> 0:32:12.200
<v Speaker 13>higher because yeah, because you know the demand for oil

0:32:12.400 --> 0:32:15.200
<v Speaker 13>as the global economies grow, the demand for oil is

0:32:15.240 --> 0:32:17.280
<v Speaker 13>going to continue to increase, and OPEK is going to

0:32:17.280 --> 0:32:20.560
<v Speaker 13>continue to limit production and the transition of it from

0:32:20.600 --> 0:32:22.840
<v Speaker 13>fossil fuels is going to take a lot of time.

0:32:23.280 --> 0:32:25.960
<v Speaker 13>So we actually think that the oil inflation is here

0:32:26.000 --> 0:32:28.880
<v Speaker 13>to stay and that will keep going higher. And that

0:32:28.960 --> 0:32:31.920
<v Speaker 13>benefits some of the larger oil players because their break

0:32:31.920 --> 0:32:34.120
<v Speaker 13>even on oil is very low, and get oil at

0:32:34.120 --> 0:32:36.640
<v Speaker 13>one hundred dollars a barrel, they are making a killing

0:32:36.800 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 13>a deal.

0:32:37.160 --> 0:32:39.520
<v Speaker 4>Does China play into your investment thesis?

0:32:40.680 --> 0:32:43.080
<v Speaker 13>Certainly, China is a major player, and you know it

0:32:43.120 --> 0:32:47.240
<v Speaker 13>does have an impact but we find opportunities more domestically

0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:50.200
<v Speaker 13>in the United States, you know, and especially I.

0:32:50.200 --> 0:32:51.280
<v Speaker 4>Just mean in that day.

0:32:51.880 --> 0:32:54.440
<v Speaker 2>You know, their economy supports rising prices of oil if

0:32:54.440 --> 0:32:55.080
<v Speaker 2>it does well.

0:32:55.360 --> 0:32:58.800
<v Speaker 13>Yes, so China is definitely a key player there. Global economies.

0:32:58.840 --> 0:33:01.560
<v Speaker 13>India is a key player, and the US also, you know,

0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 13>the US economy is improving, so that's also increasing the

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:07.680
<v Speaker 13>demand for oil. So definitely, we really like some of

0:33:07.720 --> 0:33:09.720
<v Speaker 13>the larger oil companies that benefit from that.

0:33:10.200 --> 0:33:12.560
<v Speaker 1>Thirty seconds, what are you staying away from here?

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 9>So?

0:33:14.560 --> 0:33:17.720
<v Speaker 13>You know, I think that there's a lot of quality

0:33:17.760 --> 0:33:20.719
<v Speaker 13>investments right now that you can take advantage of. So

0:33:20.800 --> 0:33:24.320
<v Speaker 13>I would stay away from the high risk, qualatile meme

0:33:24.400 --> 0:33:27.720
<v Speaker 13>type of investments and just focus more on quality and

0:33:27.760 --> 0:33:30.680
<v Speaker 13>look at it in pullbacks. And like you said, fixed

0:33:30.680 --> 0:33:33.320
<v Speaker 13>income is giving you also an opportunity of a lifetime.

0:33:33.320 --> 0:33:35.640
<v Speaker 13>You know, one year T bill you're looking at close

0:33:35.720 --> 0:33:38.480
<v Speaker 13>to five percent. You've never seen that in a long time.

0:33:38.720 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's just amazing. I know people that just roll

0:33:41.200 --> 0:33:43.960
<v Speaker 1>those things over all the time. A deal Zaman, he's

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a partner at Wall Street Alliance. We appreciate coming in here.

0:33:46.920 --> 0:33:50.520
<v Speaker 8>You're listening to the tape Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets

0:33:50.600 --> 0:33:53.960
<v Speaker 8>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune

0:33:54.000 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 8>in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

0:33:55.680 --> 0:33:57.000
<v Speaker 9>The Bloomberg Business App.

0:33:57.040 --> 0:33:59.720
<v Speaker 8>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:33:59.720 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 8>Play New York station just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven.

0:34:05.600 --> 0:34:07.840
<v Speaker 2>Hannah Elliott is going to join us right now. She's

0:34:07.840 --> 0:34:13.160
<v Speaker 2>there from Los Angeles. She is prepping for getting ready

0:34:13.239 --> 0:34:19.239
<v Speaker 2>for this great Pebble Beach concourse, concourse to elegance. You've

0:34:19.239 --> 0:34:22.120
<v Speaker 2>been there a few times, there have never you've got

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:25.920
<v Speaker 2>to ever been for you, And it's like everybody I

0:34:25.960 --> 0:34:26.680
<v Speaker 2>talk to is.

0:34:26.640 --> 0:34:28.719
<v Speaker 4>Like, oh, how can you not go to that?

0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:31.640
<v Speaker 2>I just haven't really ever had time or been allowed

0:34:31.680 --> 0:34:35.359
<v Speaker 2>by my boss. But Hannah is like, it's her job,

0:34:35.480 --> 0:34:40.239
<v Speaker 2>so she joins us now. Also, I think preparing to

0:34:40.320 --> 0:34:43.640
<v Speaker 2>drive a couple of sweet aston Martin's. Hannah talk to

0:34:43.719 --> 0:34:46.680
<v Speaker 2>us first about the concourse elegance, and I saw your

0:34:46.680 --> 0:34:50.240
<v Speaker 2>story about they're building a big barn for some old ferraris,

0:34:50.320 --> 0:34:51.360
<v Speaker 2>What's what's that all about?

0:34:52.040 --> 0:34:55.920
<v Speaker 14>I It's honestly so exciting and cool. I'm really excited.

0:34:55.960 --> 0:34:58.320
<v Speaker 14>I've got I've gone for many years and this is

0:34:58.360 --> 0:35:00.360
<v Speaker 14>the most excited. I've been for a while about a

0:35:00.400 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 14>bunch of old, rusted out, completely derelic Ferraris that are

0:35:05.040 --> 0:35:09.000
<v Speaker 14>for cell R. M. Sotheby's. The auction house built a

0:35:09.280 --> 0:35:12.800
<v Speaker 14>barn displayed to recreate the way that these twenty Ferraris

0:35:12.840 --> 0:35:17.279
<v Speaker 14>were found in Florida after a hurricane. They might you

0:35:17.320 --> 0:35:19.640
<v Speaker 14>might remember two thousand and four we saw some pictures

0:35:19.640 --> 0:35:23.160
<v Speaker 14>of a bunch of ferraris completely demolished after a hurricane.

0:35:23.800 --> 0:35:28.520
<v Speaker 14>Now we have the Ferraris foresell. They've reappeared, and they're

0:35:28.600 --> 0:35:32.160
<v Speaker 14>actually owned by a very eccentric man you might remember

0:35:32.239 --> 0:35:36.439
<v Speaker 14>named Walter Medlin, who's got quite a colorful history back

0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:40.280
<v Speaker 14>to the nineteen seventies or so. But they're gonna these

0:35:40.320 --> 0:35:43.560
<v Speaker 14>Ferraris are gonna go big, even though they're all twisted

0:35:43.600 --> 0:35:44.919
<v Speaker 14>and completely rusted out.

0:35:45.800 --> 0:35:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Talk to us about the Concourse delegons, What is it

0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:51.360
<v Speaker 1>and who goes there? Tell us about why it's so,

0:35:51.400 --> 0:35:53.880
<v Speaker 1>especially in the world of high end automobiles.

0:35:54.320 --> 0:35:57.200
<v Speaker 14>Okay, well, Concord Delegons is a really snooty way to

0:35:57.239 --> 0:35:59.799
<v Speaker 14>say a car show, yep. And what it is is

0:35:59.800 --> 0:36:03.480
<v Speaker 14>a bunch of really nice, very well washed and detailed

0:36:03.600 --> 0:36:07.000
<v Speaker 14>cars parked on a putting green and a fair way

0:36:07.360 --> 0:36:08.560
<v Speaker 14>of golf course.

0:36:09.080 --> 0:36:12.799
<v Speaker 1>And anue in Carmel by the Sea exactly.

0:36:13.080 --> 0:36:17.800
<v Speaker 14>It's it's actually on the Pebble Beach Car golf course,

0:36:18.280 --> 0:36:22.400
<v Speaker 14>and there is a set amount of cars that are judged,

0:36:22.440 --> 0:36:26.160
<v Speaker 14>of course, you know this Q tip white glove type judging.

0:36:26.520 --> 0:36:27.520
<v Speaker 4>But then also.

0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:30.640
<v Speaker 14>Throughout the week there are auctions, there are other car shows.

0:36:31.040 --> 0:36:33.759
<v Speaker 14>You know, thousands and thousands of people come. There's kind

0:36:33.760 --> 0:36:36.799
<v Speaker 14>of something for everybody. There will be car shows just

0:36:36.880 --> 0:36:39.360
<v Speaker 14>for muscle cars, or just for Porsches, or just for

0:36:40.160 --> 0:36:43.239
<v Speaker 14>I don't know, old trucks from the seventies. It's really fun.

0:36:43.320 --> 0:36:46.840
<v Speaker 14>But yes, to your point, the big climax of the

0:36:46.880 --> 0:36:50.480
<v Speaker 14>week is Sunday's Concord Delegans, the car show on the

0:36:50.520 --> 0:36:51.520
<v Speaker 14>Pebble Beach golf course.

0:36:51.560 --> 0:36:54.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's just extraordinary. I mean this is big business, Hannah, right.

0:36:54.480 --> 0:36:57.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean I see stories on some of those cars

0:36:57.400 --> 0:36:59.200
<v Speaker 1>that get bought and sold during the week, and particularly

0:36:59.239 --> 0:37:02.960
<v Speaker 1>on Sunday, some huge numbers. Shit, there's real investment here.

0:37:03.800 --> 0:37:06.839
<v Speaker 14>Yeah, this is kind of like art collecting in a way.

0:37:06.960 --> 0:37:10.760
<v Speaker 14>We're talking about blue chip collectibles here. So the most

0:37:11.280 --> 0:37:16.360
<v Speaker 14>expensive and rare vehicles in the world are bought, showed, shown,

0:37:16.520 --> 0:37:20.719
<v Speaker 14>and displayed. Certainly the auction houses will see easily over

0:37:20.760 --> 0:37:23.240
<v Speaker 14>one hundred million dollars in sales just over the weekend,

0:37:23.640 --> 0:37:26.480
<v Speaker 14>all told through a three or four days of auctions.

0:37:26.520 --> 0:37:28.520
<v Speaker 14>But you know, you have things that you know there

0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:30.360
<v Speaker 14>might be two or three of them in the world.

0:37:30.400 --> 0:37:33.000
<v Speaker 14>Some of the racing Ferraris, of course, we remember the

0:37:33.040 --> 0:37:36.120
<v Speaker 14>three hundred sl goal wings, the Mercedes with the doors

0:37:36.160 --> 0:37:40.160
<v Speaker 14>that raise up a like a goal wing, so really

0:37:40.400 --> 0:37:44.359
<v Speaker 14>iconic cars. This is the most prestigious car of it, really,

0:37:44.440 --> 0:37:46.640
<v Speaker 14>certainly in North America. Maybe in the world. You could

0:37:46.640 --> 0:37:48.880
<v Speaker 14>say there might be a few in Italy that compare,

0:37:48.920 --> 0:37:51.560
<v Speaker 14>but this really is if you want to see blue

0:37:51.640 --> 0:37:54.759
<v Speaker 14>chip cars and the best of the best and the

0:37:54.840 --> 0:37:56.480
<v Speaker 14>rarest this is where you go.

0:37:56.640 --> 0:38:00.319
<v Speaker 2>We're showing some of the derelict Ferraris here for those

0:38:00.680 --> 0:38:04.440
<v Speaker 2>people watching on YouTube or streaming us on Bloomberg dot com.

0:38:04.880 --> 0:38:07.440
<v Speaker 2>Some of them look like they're in pretty fantastic shape.

0:38:07.480 --> 0:38:10.960
<v Speaker 2>Others look like they're about to fall apart from all

0:38:11.000 --> 0:38:16.280
<v Speaker 2>the rust, but they're still expected. Even the one that Hannah,

0:38:16.320 --> 0:38:18.680
<v Speaker 2>you know, the one that's completely crumpled and doesn't have

0:38:19.080 --> 0:38:22.400
<v Speaker 2>a roof or maybe even wheels, even that is going

0:38:22.440 --> 0:38:25.200
<v Speaker 2>to go for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

0:38:26.400 --> 0:38:30.840
<v Speaker 14>Yeah, you know, barn finds are very interesting things from

0:38:31.040 --> 0:38:33.480
<v Speaker 14>what I hear the guys that I talk to. Really,

0:38:33.760 --> 0:38:37.359
<v Speaker 14>if you're concerned about money, it's better to just buy

0:38:37.400 --> 0:38:42.040
<v Speaker 14>the car already done. These are not especially at this point.

0:38:43.200 --> 0:38:45.640
<v Speaker 14>You know, you're you're gonna spend a lot of money

0:38:45.680 --> 0:38:47.880
<v Speaker 14>to bring them back, maybe even more than you'd spend

0:38:48.000 --> 0:38:51.360
<v Speaker 14>on a similar car that's already done. So it's really

0:38:51.520 --> 0:38:54.520
<v Speaker 14>at this point it's about the story. It's about the journey.

0:38:54.800 --> 0:38:58.760
<v Speaker 14>The people who buy, you know, these twisted crumple cars

0:38:59.160 --> 0:39:04.880
<v Speaker 14>are people who love the painful relationship of what it

0:39:04.920 --> 0:39:06.600
<v Speaker 14>takes to bring a car back to life.

0:39:06.960 --> 0:39:08.960
<v Speaker 2>Let me ask about a new car, and that is

0:39:09.000 --> 0:39:12.720
<v Speaker 2>the dB twelve. You've already driven the car somewhere else

0:39:13.440 --> 0:39:16.520
<v Speaker 2>besides America, but you're also going to get some seat

0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:19.120
<v Speaker 2>time in a couple of Aston Martin's coming up. What's

0:39:19.160 --> 0:39:21.160
<v Speaker 2>the story with this company, where it is and what

0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:21.800
<v Speaker 2>it's producing.

0:39:22.960 --> 0:39:27.279
<v Speaker 14>You know, Aston Martin is really fascinating this year for

0:39:27.360 --> 0:39:31.000
<v Speaker 14>a number of reasons. We know that they've really struggled

0:39:31.000 --> 0:39:33.960
<v Speaker 14>since their IPO in twenty eighteen. But they've got a

0:39:34.080 --> 0:39:37.560
<v Speaker 14>very dynamic owner and Lawrence Stroll, and of course Aston

0:39:37.600 --> 0:39:40.520
<v Speaker 14>Martin is doing fantastic in Formula One right now, which

0:39:41.080 --> 0:39:44.440
<v Speaker 14>helps a lot at least from public perception and probably

0:39:44.440 --> 0:39:47.520
<v Speaker 14>fundraising too. Of course, Lawrence Stroll's son is a race

0:39:47.560 --> 0:39:50.479
<v Speaker 14>car driver as well, so there's a lot of talk

0:39:50.600 --> 0:39:52.960
<v Speaker 14>about Aston Martin. And then when they bring in the

0:39:53.040 --> 0:39:55.920
<v Speaker 14>dB twelve, which is a successor to the dB eleven,

0:39:56.239 --> 0:40:00.960
<v Speaker 14>excellent vehicle. They've got the DBX sub seven. I think

0:40:01.000 --> 0:40:04.640
<v Speaker 14>I'll be in during Monterey fantastic suv. I actually think

0:40:04.680 --> 0:40:08.160
<v Speaker 14>you could cross shop it against the Lamborghini Urus perhaps,

0:40:09.080 --> 0:40:11.560
<v Speaker 14>and you could throw in the Ferrari Pro song Wet

0:40:11.680 --> 0:40:15.239
<v Speaker 14>as well if you wanted. So they're making really competitive products,

0:40:15.440 --> 0:40:18.400
<v Speaker 14>but also they have really it's been tough. You know,

0:40:18.440 --> 0:40:22.640
<v Speaker 14>they faced liquidity issues. There's been a lot of UH

0:40:24.040 --> 0:40:28.080
<v Speaker 14>there's been a lot of financial UH turnover and executive turnover.

0:40:28.880 --> 0:40:31.400
<v Speaker 14>Now we also know that they're tied in with Lucid,

0:40:31.800 --> 0:40:34.160
<v Speaker 14>so there's just a lot going on at Acid Martin.

0:40:34.160 --> 0:40:37.160
<v Speaker 14>It's a really exciting time and I am looking forward

0:40:37.200 --> 0:40:40.560
<v Speaker 14>to having some time with their executives to get the latest.

0:40:41.239 --> 0:40:44.799
<v Speaker 1>All right, Hannah, great stuff, Enjoy Carmel, Enjoy Pebble Beach.

0:40:44.840 --> 0:40:47.480
<v Speaker 1>Maybe get a little veal at Ilfrenile on a corner

0:40:47.480 --> 0:40:50.839
<v Speaker 1>of Ocean Avenue there in Carmel by the Sea, Hannah Ls,

0:40:50.840 --> 0:40:53.200
<v Speaker 1>staff writer for Bloomberg Business Week. Man, we got to

0:40:53.200 --> 0:40:56.840
<v Speaker 1>get you there, dude, I someday, uh and get you

0:40:56.880 --> 0:41:00.000
<v Speaker 1>go for multiple days, and as Hannah was saying, all

0:41:00.080 --> 0:41:03.040
<v Speaker 1>around the bay, the Monterey Bay area, including Monterey out

0:41:03.320 --> 0:41:06.040
<v Speaker 1>out near Salinas, all over the Monterey Bay area. Each

0:41:06.120 --> 0:41:09.160
<v Speaker 1>day there'll be different shows, and you know it's not

0:41:09.280 --> 0:41:12.120
<v Speaker 1>just there. So it's just amazing that it culminates on Sunday.

0:41:12.239 --> 0:41:13.880
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the next best thing for me is just

0:41:13.920 --> 0:41:16.040
<v Speaker 2>having Hannah cover it, because then I read all of

0:41:16.080 --> 0:41:18.520
<v Speaker 2>her coverage and get deep in it. So I feel

0:41:18.560 --> 0:41:21.800
<v Speaker 2>like if she's out there writing about it, maybe creating

0:41:21.800 --> 0:41:24.719
<v Speaker 2>some video content as well, that's good enough for me

0:41:24.800 --> 0:41:25.200
<v Speaker 2>for now.

0:41:25.239 --> 0:41:27.120
<v Speaker 4>And then one day when I retire.

0:41:26.760 --> 0:41:29.680
<v Speaker 1>Maybe no, please, you can go out there. I'll make

0:41:29.680 --> 0:41:30.920
<v Speaker 1>it happen. Don't worry. I know a couple of.

0:41:30.920 --> 0:41:33.960
<v Speaker 8>People you're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program

0:41:34.000 --> 0:41:37.960
<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:41:38.120 --> 0:41:40.840
<v Speaker 8>the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

0:41:40.880 --> 0:41:43.960
<v Speaker 8>Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

0:41:44.040 --> 0:41:47.319
<v Speaker 8>from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play

0:41:47.440 --> 0:41:49.480
<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:41:51.160 --> 0:41:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Matt Miller, Paul Sweeney here live in the Bloomberg Interactive

0:41:54.160 --> 0:41:57.799
<v Speaker 1>Broker Studio. We are streaming on that YouTube thing. To

0:41:57.840 --> 0:42:00.680
<v Speaker 1>go over there and just search Bloomberglobal News and now

0:42:00.719 --> 0:42:03.279
<v Speaker 1>I'll bring it to the video feed. How fun is that?

0:42:03.800 --> 0:42:06.120
<v Speaker 2>More global news, bloomerglob You've got to put in the

0:42:06.160 --> 0:42:10.040
<v Speaker 2>phrase Bloomberg global news. I'm just saying, like I have

0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:12.840
<v Speaker 2>searched and searched I YouTube and I can't find it.

0:42:12.880 --> 0:42:15.800
<v Speaker 2>But for some reason, that's a magical phrase, Bloomberg Global News.

0:42:15.920 --> 0:42:17.840
<v Speaker 1>I know, I know, I don't know what's crazy. I

0:42:17.960 --> 0:42:20.799
<v Speaker 1>learned that from Carol Masser, you know, because they've been

0:42:20.840 --> 0:42:23.440
<v Speaker 1>streaming Bloomberg Business Week for a long time. So she

0:42:23.560 --> 0:42:25.080
<v Speaker 1>taught me. Well there, so all right, looking at the

0:42:25.080 --> 0:42:26.719
<v Speaker 1>markets here, up four tens to one percent on the

0:42:26.800 --> 0:42:28.560
<v Speaker 1>S and P five hundred, let's se where the action

0:42:28.760 --> 0:42:31.400
<v Speaker 1>is under the hood. Billy Lipscholtz. He covers the markets

0:42:31.400 --> 0:42:33.840
<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg News. Joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive

0:42:33.840 --> 0:42:35.440
<v Speaker 1>Broker studio. Billy, what are you looking at?

0:42:35.760 --> 0:42:35.960
<v Speaker 9>Yeah?

0:42:36.040 --> 0:42:39.120
<v Speaker 12>Still seeing quite a bit of weakness for Tapestry after

0:42:39.280 --> 0:42:44.640
<v Speaker 12>the deal to acquire I'm sorry, Yeah, the deal to

0:42:44.680 --> 0:42:47.200
<v Speaker 12>acquire Capri and an eight and a half billion dollar deal.

0:42:47.200 --> 0:42:50.200
<v Speaker 12>Tapestry down thirteen percent, worse performer in the five hundred.

0:42:50.560 --> 0:42:53.680
<v Speaker 12>The biggest driver of the upside though, among them is

0:42:53.760 --> 0:42:58.120
<v Speaker 12>Disney after quarterly results showcasing cost cuts, which will be

0:42:58.160 --> 0:43:01.400
<v Speaker 12>interesting ahead of News Court results after the belt today,

0:43:01.480 --> 0:43:03.800
<v Speaker 12>So getting a bit more detail, Paul, As you mentioned

0:43:04.080 --> 0:43:06.880
<v Speaker 12>in your neck of the woods within the media space.

0:43:06.920 --> 0:43:09.400
<v Speaker 12>One stock that does stand out though, YETI Holdings.

0:43:09.440 --> 0:43:11.319
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if you guys are huge Yetti fan.

0:43:11.520 --> 0:43:14.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm a big I'm a big owner of YETI products.

0:43:14.480 --> 0:43:15.760
<v Speaker 2>Full disclosure here.

0:43:16.320 --> 0:43:18.719
<v Speaker 12>I've got the cooler, I've got a couple of the tumblers.

0:43:18.719 --> 0:43:23.360
<v Speaker 12>Stock up twenty percent right now after better than expected

0:43:23.400 --> 0:43:27.439
<v Speaker 12>second quarter results, boosting their forecast for earnings for the year.

0:43:27.560 --> 0:43:30.640
<v Speaker 12>So biggest entry day percentage gained since November. Trading at

0:43:30.640 --> 0:43:33.760
<v Speaker 12>the highest sense February analysts across Wall Street really praising

0:43:33.800 --> 0:43:34.560
<v Speaker 12>those results.

0:43:34.680 --> 0:43:37.080
<v Speaker 1>It is ridiculous how good those products are. I'll put

0:43:37.480 --> 0:43:40.680
<v Speaker 1>the I'll put the water in my Yetti little container,

0:43:40.920 --> 0:43:44.480
<v Speaker 1>go to the beach. I can barely touch the exterior

0:43:44.640 --> 0:43:47.319
<v Speaker 1>of the bottle because it's so hot from the sun

0:43:47.360 --> 0:43:49.720
<v Speaker 1>on the beach. Drink the water ice cold.

0:43:49.960 --> 0:43:51.480
<v Speaker 4>But why is uh?

0:43:51.880 --> 0:43:55.239
<v Speaker 2>Why is Yeti the only name we know because we

0:43:55.280 --> 0:44:00.840
<v Speaker 2>grew up with coleman or Yeah, Igloo, Iglu, that's the one, exactly,

0:44:00.880 --> 0:44:03.200
<v Speaker 2>And they don't. I don't know if they make the

0:44:03.239 --> 0:44:07.080
<v Speaker 2>same kind of products. But there are other cooler makers

0:44:07.239 --> 0:44:11.359
<v Speaker 2>who make I think what's called Rodo molded coolers right.

0:44:12.440 --> 0:44:17.160
<v Speaker 2>Arctic Coolers is one, Orca is another. I'm pretty sure

0:44:17.239 --> 0:44:21.560
<v Speaker 2>Pelican makes them as well. I don't they don't see

0:44:21.640 --> 0:44:24.960
<v Speaker 2>anything besides YETI. If you go to an Arii, for example,

0:44:24.960 --> 0:44:25.960
<v Speaker 2>it's all about YETI.

0:44:26.040 --> 0:44:27.880
<v Speaker 12>Well, even if you go to Dick's Sporting Goods or

0:44:27.960 --> 0:44:32.000
<v Speaker 12>Lows and Home Depot, there's an entire YETI section. Wine tumblers,

0:44:32.040 --> 0:44:35.080
<v Speaker 12>the regular tumblers, mega ones that are like.

0:44:35.040 --> 0:44:39.799
<v Speaker 4>My brother's fiance has a Yetti Martini glass. No, she's

0:44:39.840 --> 0:44:40.319
<v Speaker 4>welcome in.

0:44:40.239 --> 0:44:44.759
<v Speaker 2>A family, exactly it's essential to her lifestyle.

0:44:45.960 --> 0:44:47.840
<v Speaker 1>It's a lifestyle aspirational brand.

0:44:48.239 --> 0:44:51.320
<v Speaker 11>Well it's interesting too. They make backpacks, now, they make clothing.

0:44:51.360 --> 0:44:54.120
<v Speaker 12>It seems like they're really branching out into kind of

0:44:54.160 --> 0:44:57.480
<v Speaker 12>the mainstream consumer goods outside of just coolers, because I

0:44:57.520 --> 0:44:59.480
<v Speaker 12>remember at one point when the stock was trading down

0:44:59.520 --> 0:45:01.520
<v Speaker 12>back in twenty twenty one, it peaked above one hundred

0:45:01.520 --> 0:45:03.759
<v Speaker 12>and seven bucks right now below fifty, and we were

0:45:03.800 --> 0:45:05.920
<v Speaker 12>kind of calling out, like how many tumblers can a

0:45:05.960 --> 0:45:08.160
<v Speaker 12>person buy? I mean, my brother's got the backpack, he's

0:45:08.200 --> 0:45:11.520
<v Speaker 12>got the twelfth pack cooler, But like, other than once

0:45:11.560 --> 0:45:12.560
<v Speaker 12>you hat kind of Now, does.

0:45:12.440 --> 0:45:16.040
<v Speaker 2>Your brother also wear a white baseball cap and talk

0:45:16.080 --> 0:45:18.440
<v Speaker 2>about his frat all the time and have an.

0:45:18.280 --> 0:45:19.360
<v Speaker 4>Old Roa subscription.

0:45:19.640 --> 0:45:22.960
<v Speaker 12>No, my brother's actually the he's in that blue collar

0:45:23.000 --> 0:45:25.040
<v Speaker 12>working class. So he's one of the construction guys who

0:45:25.080 --> 0:45:26.680
<v Speaker 12>has the cooler loaded.

0:45:26.480 --> 0:45:27.440
<v Speaker 1>Up for gotta have that.

0:45:27.640 --> 0:45:30.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they have it too, But I just I always

0:45:30.080 --> 0:45:33.080
<v Speaker 2>feel like I risk if I put a yetti sticker

0:45:33.160 --> 0:45:36.000
<v Speaker 2>on my truck, or you know, if I wear the hat,

0:45:36.080 --> 0:45:39.600
<v Speaker 2>I risk being lumped in with that whole you know,

0:45:39.680 --> 0:45:40.840
<v Speaker 2>good old boy crowd.

0:45:41.080 --> 0:45:42.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't know it's weird good.

0:45:42.960 --> 0:45:45.520
<v Speaker 2>I don't go to SEC games, you know, I'd love

0:45:45.560 --> 0:45:46.920
<v Speaker 2>to going to SEC game.

0:45:46.920 --> 0:45:49.080
<v Speaker 12>But I feel like Yeti's interesting because it has that

0:45:49.200 --> 0:45:53.920
<v Speaker 12>kind of you know, fraternity vibe, but also the like construction, firefighter,

0:45:53.960 --> 0:45:54.760
<v Speaker 12>police officer.

0:45:55.520 --> 0:45:55.759
<v Speaker 9>True.

0:45:55.840 --> 0:45:59.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, look at that chart. That's another pandemic chart stuck.

0:45:59.800 --> 0:46:02.279
<v Speaker 1>You know, twenty twenty just started ripping, you know, went

0:46:02.320 --> 0:46:04.480
<v Speaker 1>from like twenty bucks up to one hundred bucks, and

0:46:04.520 --> 0:46:07.040
<v Speaker 1>like a lot of those pandemic stocks, at the end

0:46:07.040 --> 0:46:09.160
<v Speaker 1>of twenty twenty one were peaked kind of been coming

0:46:09.239 --> 0:46:09.879
<v Speaker 1>down ever since.

0:46:10.000 --> 0:46:12.160
<v Speaker 12>Another stock and focus though on Matt. I want your

0:46:12.200 --> 0:46:15.080
<v Speaker 12>opinion on luxury not luxury. Ralph Lauren right now down

0:46:15.120 --> 0:46:17.680
<v Speaker 12>two and a half percent, falling for the fifth straight

0:46:17.760 --> 0:46:20.680
<v Speaker 12>session after they reported quarterly results that had a light

0:46:20.760 --> 0:46:24.240
<v Speaker 12>two Q forecast. Our Phil's calm luxury brand, Ralph Larett

0:46:24.239 --> 0:46:25.720
<v Speaker 12>and Luxury are not luxury.

0:46:25.360 --> 0:46:27.840
<v Speaker 4>I mean, to my mind, it's a staple.

0:46:27.840 --> 0:46:31.040
<v Speaker 2>Course to my mind, it's a sort of staple of

0:46:31.160 --> 0:46:35.800
<v Speaker 2>the upper middle class, right, And they do make higher

0:46:35.960 --> 0:46:41.520
<v Speaker 2>end products. The Purple label is one they have RRL,

0:46:41.680 --> 0:46:46.440
<v Speaker 2>but they don't actually achieve full luxury I think because,

0:46:46.440 --> 0:46:52.400
<v Speaker 2>for example, RRL likes flight jackets and you know Japanese

0:46:52.480 --> 0:46:56.879
<v Speaker 2>denim kind of products work where sort of stuff. They

0:46:56.880 --> 0:47:00.400
<v Speaker 2>don't really have the quality that the truly good and

0:47:00.440 --> 0:47:01.120
<v Speaker 2>that space have.

0:47:01.280 --> 0:47:02.719
<v Speaker 4>They just have the design, all right.

0:47:02.760 --> 0:47:05.560
<v Speaker 1>It's a eight billion dollar market cap, up about eighteen

0:47:05.600 --> 0:47:07.520
<v Speaker 1>percent year to date and down two point seven percent

0:47:07.560 --> 0:47:09.640
<v Speaker 1>today on the I guess on that print, right, yeah,

0:47:09.680 --> 0:47:10.600
<v Speaker 1>after those results.

0:47:10.760 --> 0:47:11.600
<v Speaker 9>Yeah.

0:47:11.719 --> 0:47:13.160
<v Speaker 12>One of the things that I thought was interesting is

0:47:13.160 --> 0:47:15.520
<v Speaker 12>that they drive half a bit more than half their

0:47:15.560 --> 0:47:17.239
<v Speaker 12>sales outside of North America.

0:47:17.320 --> 0:47:18.000
<v Speaker 4>Really, Okay, so.

0:47:18.040 --> 0:47:20.040
<v Speaker 1>That's a bread making up a chunk of that interested

0:47:20.040 --> 0:47:22.480
<v Speaker 1>to see I'm gonna be really fascinated to see now

0:47:22.480 --> 0:47:26.120
<v Speaker 1>that China's opening up air travel for its or loosening

0:47:26.120 --> 0:47:28.919
<v Speaker 1>and I guess a little bit for uh it's uh,

0:47:29.440 --> 0:47:33.279
<v Speaker 1>you know, people, whether we'll see an outflow of Chinese uh,

0:47:33.680 --> 0:47:35.960
<v Speaker 1>just visitors and travel. Do they have the same pent

0:47:36.120 --> 0:47:37.680
<v Speaker 1>up kind of revenue they did?

0:47:37.760 --> 0:47:41.600
<v Speaker 4>They allow they're allowing group travel. Yes, so they're allowing like.

0:47:41.760 --> 0:47:46.200
<v Speaker 2>Tour groups now to leave China for destinations like the US.

0:47:46.239 --> 0:47:48.520
<v Speaker 1>So I guess that's a good first step. But maybe

0:47:48.520 --> 0:47:50.759
<v Speaker 1>we'll be seeing some more of a Chinese friends here

0:47:51.080 --> 0:47:53.319
<v Speaker 1>in the big city shopping in some of those big

0:47:53.400 --> 0:47:54.880
<v Speaker 1>luxury stores. We certainly like to see that.

0:47:55.120 --> 0:47:57.680
<v Speaker 11>And gils Bery Hawaiian holding is down four percent.

0:47:57.719 --> 0:48:01.160
<v Speaker 12>This all coming after that news Maui's so we're keeping

0:48:01.160 --> 0:48:03.360
<v Speaker 12>an eye on that. Obviously not a positive update in

0:48:03.480 --> 0:48:05.359
<v Speaker 12>terms of kind of the news that's coming out of there,

0:48:05.360 --> 0:48:06.080
<v Speaker 12>but keeping an eye.

0:48:06.040 --> 0:48:08.600
<v Speaker 1>On that story is unbelievable. I mean the fires a

0:48:08.719 --> 0:48:13.240
<v Speaker 1>I've never remember seeing them hearing about fires and why before.

0:48:13.400 --> 0:48:14.040
<v Speaker 4>No, I don't know.

0:48:14.000 --> 0:48:15.680
<v Speaker 1>If this is a new thing, but boy, and just

0:48:15.680 --> 0:48:18.280
<v Speaker 1>the destruction of that beautiful area, I guess it's on Maui.

0:48:18.440 --> 0:48:22.040
<v Speaker 2>You know, crazy yeah story the former capital YEP of

0:48:22.200 --> 0:48:24.799
<v Speaker 2>Hawaii has been decimated.

0:48:24.880 --> 0:48:27.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's just terrible news. All right, Belly, thanks so

0:48:27.440 --> 0:48:29.719
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us. Are Billy lipstialt He covers all

0:48:29.800 --> 0:48:34.239
<v Speaker 1>the markets for Bloomberg News. I want to talk about endowments.

0:48:34.760 --> 0:48:36.319
<v Speaker 1>I know a thing or two amount of Doomans having

0:48:36.320 --> 0:48:38.600
<v Speaker 1>worked on some boards of schools, and for a lot

0:48:38.640 --> 0:48:42.080
<v Speaker 1>of schools, it's the lifeblood. Its kind of supports the

0:48:42.120 --> 0:48:45.400
<v Speaker 1>economics of the school. And some of these big universities

0:48:45.440 --> 0:48:48.200
<v Speaker 1>report their endowment numbers pretty publicly and Janet lorn Higher

0:48:48.280 --> 0:48:51.160
<v Speaker 1>education financial report for Bloomberg News joins us here on

0:48:51.200 --> 0:48:54.719
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. How did some of these

0:48:54.719 --> 0:48:57.239
<v Speaker 1>big universities do in this last fiscal year, which I

0:48:57.239 --> 0:48:58.520
<v Speaker 1>guess ends in June thirtieth.

0:48:58.640 --> 0:49:02.800
<v Speaker 15>Yes, we'll be starting to hear more school specific returns

0:49:02.840 --> 0:49:04.640
<v Speaker 15>coming up in the next month or two. Okay, we

0:49:04.920 --> 0:49:08.240
<v Speaker 15>get a good snapshot and the median is eight point

0:49:08.280 --> 0:49:10.880
<v Speaker 15>seven percent, which might sound like a terrific return, but

0:49:10.920 --> 0:49:15.120
<v Speaker 15>we have to keep in mind inflation. So while you know,

0:49:15.800 --> 0:49:18.960
<v Speaker 15>you have to factor in spending and also what schools

0:49:19.000 --> 0:49:21.719
<v Speaker 15>are paying out in terms of inflation, they're also paying

0:49:21.800 --> 0:49:26.480
<v Speaker 15>higher costs for everything from construction to professor salaries. They're

0:49:26.520 --> 0:49:30.399
<v Speaker 15>even paying more in financial aid. So those it may

0:49:30.480 --> 0:49:32.200
<v Speaker 15>sound like a great return, but a lot of it

0:49:32.239 --> 0:49:33.600
<v Speaker 15>is being eaten up by inflation.

0:49:34.040 --> 0:49:37.399
<v Speaker 2>I have to imagine financial aid spending has gone way

0:49:37.480 --> 0:49:40.560
<v Speaker 2>up over the past couple of decades because so many

0:49:40.800 --> 0:49:43.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean I focus on the schools, the big endowments

0:49:43.440 --> 0:49:46.359
<v Speaker 2>that you write about. You know, so many of those

0:49:46.360 --> 0:49:50.480
<v Speaker 2>schools have hardly any students who are paying full tuition.

0:49:51.280 --> 0:49:54.160
<v Speaker 15>Well, a lot of the schools have been trying to

0:49:54.200 --> 0:49:57.560
<v Speaker 15>make a concerted effort, you know, to showing Congress and

0:49:57.680 --> 0:50:00.560
<v Speaker 15>the federal government that they are attracting lower income students.

0:50:00.600 --> 0:50:03.719
<v Speaker 15>Harvard said this year twenty five percent of their entire

0:50:03.760 --> 0:50:06.520
<v Speaker 15>freshman class it has an income of eighty five thousand,

0:50:06.600 --> 0:50:10.120
<v Speaker 15>are below and they're giving more financial aid for students.

0:50:10.120 --> 0:50:12.960
<v Speaker 15>Who are you trying to have a more diverse and

0:50:13.120 --> 0:50:14.799
<v Speaker 15>economically diverse class.

0:50:15.719 --> 0:50:17.359
<v Speaker 1>You like Columbia University, don't you?

0:50:17.480 --> 0:50:17.680
<v Speaker 3>Yes?

0:50:17.760 --> 0:50:18.680
<v Speaker 11>I did go to school there.

0:50:18.680 --> 0:50:22.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean undergrad of Columbia, Masters and Journalism Columbia. Then

0:50:22.640 --> 0:50:25.279
<v Speaker 1>a Spencer Fellow for Columbia, which you finished this year.

0:50:25.360 --> 0:50:25.839
<v Speaker 4>What is that?

0:50:27.040 --> 0:50:30.640
<v Speaker 15>So that is a reporting fellowship looking into education.

0:50:30.440 --> 0:50:33.040
<v Speaker 1>Reported everyone comes in, there's so much smarter than we are.

0:50:33.120 --> 0:50:35.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, like everyone from Bloombo News comes in and

0:50:35.400 --> 0:50:37.319
<v Speaker 1>I'm just like you guys kill me, all right? So

0:50:37.400 --> 0:50:39.759
<v Speaker 1>going back to like your story here, I mean, talk

0:50:39.760 --> 0:50:42.600
<v Speaker 1>to us about endownm It's how important are they to

0:50:42.680 --> 0:50:44.560
<v Speaker 1>these schools because it just seems like, you know, I

0:50:44.600 --> 0:50:47.160
<v Speaker 1>do a lot of work with Duke and they're Endown

0:50:47.440 --> 0:50:52.040
<v Speaker 1>monstrous and they get great returns and it's such a

0:50:52.040 --> 0:50:55.440
<v Speaker 1>big supporter of everything they try to do. But some schools,

0:50:55.480 --> 0:50:57.280
<v Speaker 1>most schools don't have that right.

0:50:57.200 --> 0:51:00.000
<v Speaker 15>Well, and there's a handful of schools that are extremely

0:51:00.120 --> 0:51:03.839
<v Speaker 15>reliant on the returns. Schools like Princeton and Amherst rely

0:51:03.960 --> 0:51:07.040
<v Speaker 15>on more than half their entire budgets from endowments. I

0:51:07.040 --> 0:51:09.799
<v Speaker 15>think in some cases they're sixty percent. But you know,

0:51:09.800 --> 0:51:12.320
<v Speaker 15>when you look at smaller schools, their endowments are smaller,

0:51:12.360 --> 0:51:15.319
<v Speaker 15>they're in US equities, and you know, they did much

0:51:15.360 --> 0:51:17.680
<v Speaker 15>better for their returns this year, given that equities were

0:51:17.760 --> 0:51:21.280
<v Speaker 15>up about eighteen percent in the period. It just depends

0:51:21.320 --> 0:51:26.120
<v Speaker 15>on the school. And as you know, long term returns

0:51:26.520 --> 0:51:29.359
<v Speaker 15>were about six percent for the ten year average, which

0:51:29.440 --> 0:51:33.400
<v Speaker 15>is not a great return considering inflation and what they're spending.

0:51:33.640 --> 0:51:36.200
<v Speaker 15>They actually have to earn a lot more in order

0:51:36.239 --> 0:51:38.839
<v Speaker 15>to keep pace. So you know, we'll see as these

0:51:38.920 --> 0:51:41.680
<v Speaker 15>numbers come out how the schools are doing. Last year

0:51:41.880 --> 0:51:44.839
<v Speaker 15>was a terrible year, the worst year in returns since

0:51:44.880 --> 0:51:45.600
<v Speaker 15>the Great Recession.

0:51:45.600 --> 0:51:50.200
<v Speaker 1>But okay, percent But here alternative investments are, particularly for

0:51:50.239 --> 0:51:53.560
<v Speaker 1>the larger endowments, are a huge percentage, and it shocks

0:51:53.640 --> 0:51:56.880
<v Speaker 1>people how much they're putting into hedge funds, private equity,

0:51:56.920 --> 0:51:59.640
<v Speaker 1>private credit. Thirty forty percent of their endowment. They're putting

0:51:59.640 --> 0:52:02.640
<v Speaker 1>into these which don't want anymore, probably more some of

0:52:02.640 --> 0:52:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the bigger ones. They don't have liquidity, that's the downside.

0:52:06.160 --> 0:52:07.000
<v Speaker 4>But they make retire.

0:52:07.480 --> 0:52:11.200
<v Speaker 1>Okay, there's a scene called market to market. They did

0:52:11.239 --> 0:52:14.080
<v Speaker 1>not mark the market the down twenty twenty five percent

0:52:14.160 --> 0:52:16.240
<v Speaker 1>year we had last year. I didn't see it anywhere

0:52:16.239 --> 0:52:16.880
<v Speaker 1>in the endowments.

0:52:17.280 --> 0:52:19.319
<v Speaker 4>Why why would they have to. It's not the same

0:52:19.360 --> 0:52:20.759
<v Speaker 4>as a bank, No.

0:52:20.680 --> 0:52:23.200
<v Speaker 1>But it's an endowment, and I would think they would

0:52:23.200 --> 0:52:25.680
<v Speaker 1>have marked the market regulations as well.

0:52:26.000 --> 0:52:27.040
<v Speaker 15>I don't believe they do.

0:52:27.239 --> 0:52:28.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't believe they do it.

0:52:28.160 --> 0:52:28.880
<v Speaker 4>I can't imagine.

0:52:29.040 --> 0:52:32.399
<v Speaker 1>That's why. And it's interesting because I kept when I

0:52:32.440 --> 0:52:35.280
<v Speaker 1>listened to the board meeting and I was like, okay,

0:52:35.400 --> 0:52:37.440
<v Speaker 1>but what about the forty percent we got in you know,

0:52:37.719 --> 0:52:40.920
<v Speaker 1>some leveraged thing that's in Zimbabwe or something some you

0:52:40.960 --> 0:52:43.279
<v Speaker 1>know zinc mine. Where's that? You know?

0:52:43.800 --> 0:52:46.880
<v Speaker 15>Well, most of the larger schools, you're absolutely right, mostly

0:52:47.080 --> 0:52:49.360
<v Speaker 15>in alternatives. And that was a big shift starting in

0:52:49.400 --> 0:52:52.439
<v Speaker 15>the late eighties early nineties when David Swinton, the late

0:52:53.040 --> 0:52:56.080
<v Speaker 15>CIO at Yale, decided that schools could get a better

0:52:56.120 --> 0:52:59.640
<v Speaker 15>premium for illiquidity, and most schools really are the big

0:52:59.680 --> 0:53:03.960
<v Speaker 15>ones shied away from US equities, and in some years

0:53:04.000 --> 0:53:06.960
<v Speaker 15>it's really paid off. In this year and in years past,

0:53:07.080 --> 0:53:11.320
<v Speaker 15>you've seen smaller endowments with larger shares in US equities

0:53:11.360 --> 0:53:13.319
<v Speaker 15>have much better returns, and of course they're not paying

0:53:13.360 --> 0:53:16.080
<v Speaker 15>the fees that alternatives command.

0:53:16.400 --> 0:53:16.560
<v Speaker 9>Well.

0:53:16.600 --> 0:53:19.080
<v Speaker 4>Tuitions across the board continue to rise.

0:53:18.880 --> 0:53:22.320
<v Speaker 2>Though, right, Janet, And how long can that happen, especially

0:53:22.360 --> 0:53:25.640
<v Speaker 2>as we as it becomes a national issue that people

0:53:25.719 --> 0:53:26.920
<v Speaker 2>owe so much money.

0:53:26.680 --> 0:53:29.800
<v Speaker 15>In student dead Well, I think twenty years ago we

0:53:29.840 --> 0:53:31.960
<v Speaker 15>would have been surprised at the price tag that it

0:53:32.040 --> 0:53:34.719
<v Speaker 15>keeps continuing to rise. Now, however, if you look at

0:53:34.719 --> 0:53:38.480
<v Speaker 15>the share of student loans, the most of the most

0:53:38.560 --> 0:53:41.880
<v Speaker 15>biggest share is not actually for college, it's for graduate school,

0:53:41.920 --> 0:53:44.040
<v Speaker 15>because you can really borrow a lot up to the

0:53:44.040 --> 0:53:46.759
<v Speaker 15>cost of attendance for graduate school, which could be you know,

0:53:46.840 --> 0:53:49.720
<v Speaker 15>eighty ninety thousand dollars in a year for a federal

0:53:49.719 --> 0:53:52.800
<v Speaker 15>student loan for your freshman year, you're only you're limited

0:53:52.800 --> 0:53:55.239
<v Speaker 15>to fifty five hundred dollars, sixty five hundred in the

0:53:55.239 --> 0:53:57.200
<v Speaker 15>second year, and seventy five hundred in the third and

0:53:57.239 --> 0:53:59.920
<v Speaker 15>fourth year, so a bit the biggest share of student

0:54:00.080 --> 0:54:03.960
<v Speaker 15>debt is really graduate school. Yes, yeah, yeah, there's limits.

0:54:04.200 --> 0:54:04.400
<v Speaker 15>You know.

0:54:04.480 --> 0:54:06.920
<v Speaker 2>Doctor Joel Fleischmann had one hundred and twenty five thousand

0:54:06.920 --> 0:54:08.320
<v Speaker 2>dollars of debt, did he really?

0:54:08.360 --> 0:54:10.520
<v Speaker 15>He paid it off in Alaska, which.

0:54:10.239 --> 0:54:12.120
<v Speaker 4>Is why he had to go to Alaska.

0:54:12.160 --> 0:54:15.719
<v Speaker 2>Exactly. He went to Columbia Medical School for that show.

0:54:16.160 --> 0:54:18.520
<v Speaker 2>The show is called Northern Exposure.

0:54:18.000 --> 0:54:21.239
<v Speaker 1>Right show. It's now on Netflix. There's a writing campaign.

0:54:21.360 --> 0:54:23.160
<v Speaker 1>I just bought it, you know.

0:54:23.200 --> 0:54:25.080
<v Speaker 4>I've been searching for it for you, I know, and

0:54:25.120 --> 0:54:26.040
<v Speaker 4>I could never find it.

0:54:26.120 --> 0:54:29.080
<v Speaker 1>He's like, I follow him on Twitter because he does

0:54:29.120 --> 0:54:31.719
<v Speaker 1>a lot of really good stuff, including he's on Billions now.

0:54:32.320 --> 0:54:34.400
<v Speaker 1>But I followed on Twitter and he said, you say,

0:54:34.560 --> 0:54:37.480
<v Speaker 1>everywhere I go, people say, how come Northern Exposure is

0:54:37.520 --> 0:54:37.919
<v Speaker 1>not on.

0:54:37.840 --> 0:54:41.360
<v Speaker 4>Netflix's on Netflix? And I just bought it sixty dollars

0:54:41.360 --> 0:54:43.360
<v Speaker 4>for the whole first season. It's very expensive.

0:54:43.440 --> 0:54:44.960
<v Speaker 15>Really, can you send that password to me?

0:54:45.160 --> 0:54:49.800
<v Speaker 1>Yes? But there's password sharing, all right, talk to just

0:54:49.840 --> 0:54:51.880
<v Speaker 1>about I mean, I've got my last of my offspring,

0:54:51.960 --> 0:54:54.160
<v Speaker 1>my four offspring coming this freshman year in college, a

0:54:54.239 --> 0:54:57.840
<v Speaker 1>private university. The tuition starts within eight.

0:54:58.280 --> 0:54:59.200
<v Speaker 4>Oh my goodness.

0:54:59.239 --> 0:55:02.839
<v Speaker 1>Exactly, I'm just like Holy Cow. And there's no end

0:55:02.840 --> 0:55:05.480
<v Speaker 1>in sight, is there. It's me it's gonna take an

0:55:05.480 --> 0:55:07.359
<v Speaker 1>Act of Congress because it's just.

0:55:07.600 --> 0:55:09.319
<v Speaker 4>A school in Europe because it doesn't make any sense

0:55:09.320 --> 0:55:09.520
<v Speaker 4>to me.

0:55:09.840 --> 0:55:12.960
<v Speaker 15>Well, and when we talk about student loans and you know,

0:55:13.000 --> 0:55:15.920
<v Speaker 15>you hear this chatter about ten thousand dollars, which of

0:55:15.960 --> 0:55:18.239
<v Speaker 15>course is not is not happening. It didn't. It never

0:55:18.280 --> 0:55:21.719
<v Speaker 15>addressed the root cause, which is the increasing cost of college.

0:55:22.200 --> 0:55:24.920
<v Speaker 15>So you're right, there doesn't seem to be an end

0:55:24.920 --> 0:55:28.680
<v Speaker 15>in sight, and there's no real regulation. And when schools

0:55:28.680 --> 0:55:31.839
<v Speaker 15>are when you're looking at default rates for colleges, they're

0:55:31.880 --> 0:55:34.319
<v Speaker 15>never on the hook. Yeah, they don't have skin in

0:55:34.360 --> 0:55:34.680
<v Speaker 15>the game.

0:55:34.800 --> 0:55:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's just extraordinary. It doesn't feel like I mean,

0:55:37.920 --> 0:55:41.399
<v Speaker 1>it's the best university system in the world arguably, but boy,

0:55:41.480 --> 0:55:43.959
<v Speaker 1>it's that the economics are tough for the average person

0:55:44.040 --> 0:55:46.319
<v Speaker 1>out there. Janet Lauren, thank you so much for joining us.

0:55:46.360 --> 0:55:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Janet Laurence. She's a higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News,

0:55:50.040 --> 0:55:55.280
<v Speaker 1>and I mean, no diversity in her education. It's just Colombia, Columbia, Columbia.

0:55:55.360 --> 0:55:57.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's a good school and all, but you know,

0:55:57.360 --> 0:55:59.560
<v Speaker 1>try something different. It's pretty good. Yeah, it's pretty good.

0:55:59.560 --> 0:56:01.200
<v Speaker 4>They have a pretty good journalism school as well.

0:56:01.440 --> 0:56:03.799
<v Speaker 1>Man, I know they're very good. They in a great

0:56:03.840 --> 0:56:07.200
<v Speaker 1>business school too. I've been hiring Peel out of the

0:56:07.239 --> 0:56:10.920
<v Speaker 1>Columbia Busines School forever and a good history department. Good

0:56:10.920 --> 0:56:12.040
<v Speaker 1>to know. I'm sure everything's good.

0:56:12.040 --> 0:56:12.160
<v Speaker 5>There.

0:56:12.160 --> 0:56:13.040
<v Speaker 1>It's Columbia.

0:56:13.200 --> 0:56:16.320
<v Speaker 8>You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg

0:56:16.360 --> 0:56:19.960
<v Speaker 8>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:56:20.040 --> 0:56:22.000
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0:56:21.960 --> 0:56:23.239
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0:56:23.280 --> 0:56:26.120
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0:56:31.320 --> 0:56:34.560
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0:56:34.680 --> 0:56:37.759
<v Speaker 1>We are streaming live on YouTube. Just head over to

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<v Speaker 4>Just search for Bloomberg Radio.

0:56:47.680 --> 0:56:49.360
<v Speaker 1>Okay, that's easy. Yeah, all right, you can then you

0:56:49.360 --> 0:56:50.960
<v Speaker 1>can find that, all right, we can do it anyway.

0:56:51.920 --> 0:56:54.239
<v Speaker 1>As Charlie was just reporting, Disney reported some numbers there

0:56:54.280 --> 0:56:56.880
<v Speaker 1>for the closed stocks up four percent. Lots of cross

0:56:56.880 --> 0:56:59.800
<v Speaker 1>currents there, reflecting a lot of cross currents in the

0:57:00.040 --> 0:57:03.120
<v Speaker 1>media industry as this industry tries to shift from a

0:57:03.160 --> 0:57:07.120
<v Speaker 1>traditional model which was based upon lots and lots of

0:57:07.120 --> 0:57:09.920
<v Speaker 1>people paying the cable companies and satellite companies a lot

0:57:09.960 --> 0:57:14.080
<v Speaker 1>of money every month to one now everybody's streaming and

0:57:14.160 --> 0:57:16.560
<v Speaker 1>what does that do to the economics? Ian Whitaker joins us.

0:57:16.560 --> 0:57:20.080
<v Speaker 1>He's a managing director and owner at Liberty Sky Advisors.

0:57:20.080 --> 0:57:23.000
<v Speaker 1>He's one He's based in London, England. One of the

0:57:23.240 --> 0:57:26.360
<v Speaker 1>smarter folks I talked to about the global media business. Ian,

0:57:26.360 --> 0:57:29.040
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us here. First, what did

0:57:29.080 --> 0:57:32.000
<v Speaker 1>you make from Disney's results last night and can you

0:57:32.000 --> 0:57:34.800
<v Speaker 1>extrapolate that out to just kind of how the global

0:57:34.800 --> 0:57:36.000
<v Speaker 1>media industry is evolving?

0:57:37.000 --> 0:57:42.800
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, no, it's very interesting and am I what would say? Well,

0:57:42.880 --> 0:57:45.760
<v Speaker 16>first of all, in terms of extrapolation, as you say, there's

0:57:45.800 --> 0:57:49.720
<v Speaker 16>a lot more focused now on cost control and efficiencies.

0:57:50.080 --> 0:57:52.720
<v Speaker 16>So and this a company divides and interest rates that

0:57:52.800 --> 0:57:56.640
<v Speaker 16>we saw the market shifted from strategies that were based

0:57:56.680 --> 0:57:59.959
<v Speaker 16>on growth to ones that assented the emphasize with cost

0:58:00.080 --> 0:58:02.280
<v Speaker 16>control as well, and that very much was the story

0:58:02.320 --> 0:58:04.920
<v Speaker 16>that came across from Disney. When you look at the

0:58:05.200 --> 0:58:08.440
<v Speaker 16>management remarks very much focusing on what they had done

0:58:08.440 --> 0:58:12.880
<v Speaker 16>about avertucing capex, what they've done about cost control been

0:58:12.880 --> 0:58:16.280
<v Speaker 16>more ahead of expectations. There is a flip side to that, though,

0:58:16.600 --> 0:58:19.320
<v Speaker 16>which is if you are going to focus more on

0:58:19.360 --> 0:58:22.200
<v Speaker 16>that side, then what it does mean is that you're

0:58:22.320 --> 0:58:26.440
<v Speaker 16>essentially saying the growth of future growth potential is probably

0:58:26.440 --> 0:58:29.440
<v Speaker 16>lower than you expected. And so I think the message

0:58:29.440 --> 0:58:32.600
<v Speaker 16>that we're getting, particularly in the streaming space, from all

0:58:32.640 --> 0:58:35.680
<v Speaker 16>of these companies is the markets want them to be

0:58:35.720 --> 0:58:39.000
<v Speaker 16>more financially disciplined, and that's fine, and are obviously taking

0:58:39.040 --> 0:58:42.680
<v Speaker 16>steps to do so. But really the underlying message that

0:58:42.800 --> 0:58:47.200
<v Speaker 16>is coming through is that we think the potential future

0:58:47.240 --> 0:58:51.280
<v Speaker 16>growth within the market is far less than we anticipated

0:58:51.320 --> 0:58:54.280
<v Speaker 16>several years ago. And again you can see that in

0:58:54.360 --> 0:58:57.680
<v Speaker 16>some of Disney's comments. They were talking about so not

0:58:57.760 --> 0:59:01.080
<v Speaker 16>all markets will be equal for streaming, their comments on

0:59:01.240 --> 0:59:05.200
<v Speaker 16>hot Star in India essentially saying we dropped twenty four

0:59:05.200 --> 0:59:08.600
<v Speaker 16>percent year on year in terms of subscriber numbers, but

0:59:08.760 --> 0:59:11.960
<v Speaker 16>essentially don't worry because it doesn't have that much impact

0:59:12.320 --> 0:59:15.960
<v Speaker 16>on the financials. Such a statement probably would never have

0:59:15.960 --> 0:59:17.320
<v Speaker 16>been made eighteen months ago.

0:59:17.880 --> 0:59:18.120
<v Speaker 9>Now.

0:59:18.160 --> 0:59:21.560
<v Speaker 16>I think that has some very interesting implications when it

0:59:21.560 --> 0:59:26.000
<v Speaker 16>comes to valuations, because maybe not so much for Disney,

0:59:26.000 --> 0:59:28.400
<v Speaker 16>although it's part in there simply because it's it's a

0:59:28.480 --> 0:59:32.480
<v Speaker 16>constituent part of different entities. But if you take stots

0:59:32.560 --> 0:59:36.120
<v Speaker 16>like Netflix, for example, probably the valuations where they are

0:59:36.160 --> 0:59:39.520
<v Speaker 16>at the moment still very much reflect a consensual view

0:59:40.080 --> 0:59:43.680
<v Speaker 16>that they are still long term growth stories, and probably

0:59:43.720 --> 0:59:44.440
<v Speaker 16>long term.

0:59:44.280 --> 0:59:45.320
<v Speaker 9>High growth stories.

0:59:46.200 --> 0:59:48.120
<v Speaker 16>I would question whether that's the case for many of

0:59:48.120 --> 0:59:48.680
<v Speaker 16>these players.

0:59:50.040 --> 0:59:54.600
<v Speaker 2>What do you think about the profitability of streaming services?

0:59:54.680 --> 0:59:56.680
<v Speaker 4>Paul was talking to the head.

0:59:56.520 --> 0:59:59.640
<v Speaker 2>Of sag Aftra I think last week or two weeks ago,

0:59:59.680 --> 1:00:02.439
<v Speaker 2>and and she was saying, these streaming services make thirty

1:00:02.480 --> 1:00:03.920
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars a year in profit.

1:00:04.000 --> 1:00:06.960
<v Speaker 4>They want their take. Did they actually make that much money?

1:00:07.760 --> 1:00:07.840
<v Speaker 14>No?

1:00:08.000 --> 1:00:13.360
<v Speaker 16>I have absolutely no idea where she actually got that

1:00:13.440 --> 1:00:16.040
<v Speaker 16>number one, because that just does not make sense.

1:00:16.080 --> 1:00:16.960
<v Speaker 9>I mean, if you.

1:00:17.000 --> 1:00:22.280
<v Speaker 16>Look through the results from these companies, the mainstreaming companies globally, yes,

1:00:22.400 --> 1:00:25.960
<v Speaker 16>Netflix has an operating profit, but people like Disney is

1:00:26.000 --> 1:00:29.480
<v Speaker 16>still making losses. Obviously, Peacock several billion dollars losses this

1:00:29.560 --> 1:00:32.520
<v Speaker 16>year as well, Warner Brothers. Yes, again has brought down

1:00:33.000 --> 1:00:36.240
<v Speaker 16>the amount of losses, but nobody is near profitability yet.

1:00:36.480 --> 1:00:38.920
<v Speaker 16>I think this is going to be a very interesting

1:00:39.000 --> 1:00:42.439
<v Speaker 16>question sort of. My view is in the next five

1:00:42.480 --> 1:00:45.880
<v Speaker 16>to ten years this will be a core paper when

1:00:45.960 --> 1:00:49.720
<v Speaker 16>it comes to NBA studies as to how, quite frankly,

1:00:50.400 --> 1:00:53.160
<v Speaker 16>these companies traded in what was a model that worked

1:00:53.240 --> 1:00:57.160
<v Speaker 16>very well for them, i the established PATV model, but

1:00:57.320 --> 1:01:00.920
<v Speaker 16>essentially one where the economics are just a lot tougher

1:01:00.920 --> 1:01:04.200
<v Speaker 16>because they were not naturally D two C companies. They've

1:01:04.240 --> 1:01:05.600
<v Speaker 16>had to go out and do a lot more in

1:01:05.680 --> 1:01:09.120
<v Speaker 16>terms of marketing. It's a proot of the economics of

1:01:09.200 --> 1:01:14.520
<v Speaker 16>their of their of their content businesses as well. I

1:01:14.560 --> 1:01:17.280
<v Speaker 16>think the argument that this was inevitable I don't necessarily

1:01:17.320 --> 1:01:19.680
<v Speaker 16>buy that. I think there could have been sort of

1:01:19.840 --> 1:01:23.280
<v Speaker 16>areas where some of the companies have been smarter, could

1:01:23.320 --> 1:01:27.240
<v Speaker 16>have taken different strategies. Sony, for example, I think has

1:01:27.280 --> 1:01:30.560
<v Speaker 16>adopted the right approach, which is say, look, we don't

1:01:30.600 --> 1:01:32.040
<v Speaker 16>want to have a D t C business, but what

1:01:32.080 --> 1:01:34.160
<v Speaker 16>we will be is we will be the arms dealer

1:01:34.200 --> 1:01:36.520
<v Speaker 16>to everyone else if they want our content, and we

1:01:36.560 --> 1:01:38.600
<v Speaker 16>will sell it at the highest price and I think

1:01:38.640 --> 1:01:43.320
<v Speaker 16>that's exactly the right strategy, particularly for let's call them

1:01:43.400 --> 1:01:46.800
<v Speaker 16>second tier players within it, within the market. But I

1:01:46.840 --> 1:01:49.720
<v Speaker 16>think what we will find over the next five years

1:01:49.840 --> 1:01:53.120
<v Speaker 16>is that what will happened with streaming is that streaming,

1:01:53.400 --> 1:01:55.800
<v Speaker 16>if there is going to be any profits, they're going

1:01:55.840 --> 1:01:56.480
<v Speaker 16>to be limited.

1:01:57.400 --> 1:01:58.120
<v Speaker 9>But what's going to.

1:01:58.120 --> 1:02:01.200
<v Speaker 16>Happen with the major the major media companies is from

1:02:01.200 --> 1:02:04.440
<v Speaker 16>a financial standpoint, especially in the US, they're going to

1:02:04.480 --> 1:02:07.520
<v Speaker 16>be outgoinged by the tech companies when it comes to

1:02:07.520 --> 1:02:11.080
<v Speaker 16>to sports fights. And I think also as well, what

1:02:11.160 --> 1:02:14.439
<v Speaker 16>I suspect we will then start to see is sort

1:02:14.480 --> 1:02:19.880
<v Speaker 16>of a reversion back to the idea that streaming doesn't

1:02:20.320 --> 1:02:22.760
<v Speaker 16>isn't the central focus of everything. I think again, this

1:02:22.840 --> 1:02:25.320
<v Speaker 16>is what you've seen from warners talking about that the

1:02:25.320 --> 1:02:28.680
<v Speaker 16>streaming tail should not wag the corporate dog.

1:02:28.800 --> 1:02:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Well Ian, I mean, then that kind of goes to

1:02:30.920 --> 1:02:34.480
<v Speaker 1>the question of are these stocks even investable here in

1:02:34.520 --> 1:02:37.080
<v Speaker 1>the process while these while this industry is trying to

1:02:37.080 --> 1:02:40.360
<v Speaker 1>figure out how to generate better profits and better returns,

1:02:40.360 --> 1:02:43.360
<v Speaker 1>it almost seems like you can't invest in this space

1:02:43.400 --> 1:02:44.840
<v Speaker 1>in general outside of Netflix.

1:02:45.520 --> 1:02:47.800
<v Speaker 16>I mean, what I would say is that I think

1:02:47.840 --> 1:02:51.600
<v Speaker 16>there is for each of the particularly each of the

1:02:51.640 --> 1:02:55.200
<v Speaker 16>streaming companies. I think there was a major question about

1:02:55.280 --> 1:02:59.400
<v Speaker 16>how how they have come about how they have adopted

1:02:59.440 --> 1:03:01.600
<v Speaker 16>their strategy. She's over the past several years. And what

1:03:02.200 --> 1:03:05.880
<v Speaker 16>do I mean by that. Well, let's take a Disney Yeah,

1:03:05.960 --> 1:03:09.440
<v Speaker 16>what it said yesterday, the three core components are theme park, streaming,

1:03:09.680 --> 1:03:12.200
<v Speaker 16>and studios. Well, it was only around two and a

1:03:12.240 --> 1:03:15.080
<v Speaker 16>half years ago that people were pretty much so willing

1:03:15.120 --> 1:03:16.080
<v Speaker 16>to write off.

1:03:16.280 --> 1:03:17.520
<v Speaker 9>The film's business. Yep.

1:03:17.680 --> 1:03:19.600
<v Speaker 16>Since she's saying that the way that we watch films

1:03:19.640 --> 1:03:22.880
<v Speaker 16>is dead, it's all going to be about director streaming

1:03:23.400 --> 1:03:26.280
<v Speaker 16>and essentially the idea that people will go in a

1:03:26.280 --> 1:03:29.160
<v Speaker 16>post pandemic world to go and watch movies in the

1:03:29.160 --> 1:03:29.640
<v Speaker 16>movie theater.

1:03:29.720 --> 1:03:30.640
<v Speaker 1>It is just ridiculous.

1:03:31.800 --> 1:03:35.520
<v Speaker 16>They made strategic decisions, major strategic decisions based on that,

1:03:36.160 --> 1:03:38.160
<v Speaker 16>and now what they're having to do is reverse those

1:03:38.440 --> 1:03:41.240
<v Speaker 16>out as they find out that the decisions they made

1:03:41.720 --> 1:03:44.560
<v Speaker 16>were wrong. I think streaming again is another example. As

1:03:44.560 --> 1:03:46.320
<v Speaker 16>I've explained before, I think there are ways that they

1:03:46.320 --> 1:03:48.200
<v Speaker 16>could have each of them could look to their stress

1:03:48.200 --> 1:03:50.560
<v Speaker 16>She's and gone about this in a different way. So

1:03:50.680 --> 1:03:53.880
<v Speaker 16>I think, yeah, with none of these companies, I think

1:03:54.600 --> 1:03:58.000
<v Speaker 16>companies are at different levels as to where they are

1:03:58.080 --> 1:04:02.040
<v Speaker 16>along their strategy realignment. Me for someone like Disney, YEP,

1:04:02.640 --> 1:04:04.520
<v Speaker 16>I think there was still a question mark as to

1:04:05.160 --> 1:04:06.520
<v Speaker 16>have they really got that stress.

1:04:06.560 --> 1:04:08.000
<v Speaker 1>She fixed all right, We're gonna have to leave it there.

1:04:08.040 --> 1:04:10.440
<v Speaker 1>Ian appreciate it. Ian Whitaker, Managing director and owner at

1:04:10.440 --> 1:04:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Liberty Sky Advisors.

1:04:15.800 --> 1:04:18.880
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

1:04:18.920 --> 1:04:22.720
<v Speaker 2>subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

1:04:22.800 --> 1:04:26.520
<v Speaker 2>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

1:04:26.720 --> 1:04:28.640
<v Speaker 2>at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

1:04:29.080 --> 1:04:31.480
<v Speaker 1>And I'm Faul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

1:04:31.600 --> 1:04:34.240
<v Speaker 1>Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

1:04:34.280 --> 1:04:36.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio