1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,799 Speaker 2: I'm June Brosso, sitting in for Joe Matthew in the 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 2: first votes cast in the twenty twenty four presidential race. 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: Donald Trump tightened his grip on the Republican presidential nomination, 8 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: with Iowa voters delivering him a commanding win in last 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: night's caucuses, moving him one step closer to returning to 10 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 2: the White House. Trump won fifty one percent of the vote, 11 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 2: with rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley not even close. 12 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 2: DeSantis came in second, winning twenty one point two percent, 13 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: and Haley close behind, capturing nineteen point one percent. Here 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 2: to discuss what it all means and how it happened 15 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 2: is Terry Haynes, founder of Benjia Policy. Thanks for joining us, Terry. 16 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 3: Thank you, Jane appreciate it. 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: So it seemed like the ca BECAU says we're over 18 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: before they began. What's the significance of Trump coming in 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 2: with a majority of the votes here? 20 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 3: Well, I'm going to give you a little bit of 21 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 3: a non consensus view about that. Frankly, Trump was expected 22 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 3: to come in with about fifty percent of the vote, 23 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 3: and surprise, surprise, that's exactly what he came pretty much 24 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 3: exactly what he came in with. Four takeaways for you. First, 25 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 3: there's still a competitive race since fifty percent or more 26 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 3: Republican voters don't want Trump and there are only two 27 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: not Trump candidates left, either of which could carry that 28 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 3: fifty percent forward. Secondly, I think a former president which 29 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 3: is losing half of his party's primary voters is not 30 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 3: good news for that candidate, even though he did win. Thirdly, 31 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 3: looking ahead to New Hampshire next week, you're likelier to 32 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 3: see a more competitive race there since Trump is polling 33 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 3: a low to mid forties and right now, based on polling, 34 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 3: you can expect to surge largely from Haley. Fourthly, I 35 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 3: think I think this is not well understood at all, 36 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 3: but the polling in Iowa, particularly the Iowa poll from 37 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 3: the Des Moines Register, showed that thirty percent of likely 38 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 3: caucus goers would not support Trump and would not vote 39 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 3: for Trump and the general election whether or not Trump, 40 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 3: if they'd voted for Trump and the caucus. That to 41 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 3: me presages a Republican Party split that I've been talking 42 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 3: about for some time. 43 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 2: But as far as the numbers that we see now 44 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 2: and what we see ahead, doesn't it appear that Trump 45 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 2: is going to wrap it up? 46 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 3: No, I don't think so at all, based on right now. No, 47 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 3: I don't think so at all. If what you've got 48 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 3: is a situation where where he wins the Iowa caucuses, 49 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 3: but let's remember he wins with just over half the 50 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 3: overall vote that came through, and the caucuses in twenty sixteen, 51 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 3: he gets sort of the not Trump side, gets almost 52 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 3: as many delegates as Trump did out of Iowa. Number one, 53 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,920 Speaker 3: number two. New Hampshire is right now, based on polling, 54 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 3: more competitive than Iowa. So you're going to have a 55 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 3: competitive race and where nothing is going to happen for 56 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 3: the month after New Hampshire. So I think what you're 57 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 3: going to see is you're going to see three main candidates, Trump, Haley, 58 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 3: and DeSantis all scratching and bting for advantage. I think 59 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 3: you're going to see a lot of visits from Haley 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 3: and Desandis to Midtown Manhattan to pick up additional money. 61 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: And additional support there. And I think it's right now, 62 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 3: it's still anybody's ballgame. If you've got a situation where 63 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 3: you're not going to have another vote until late late 64 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 3: February in South Carolina or early March in the Super 65 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 3: Tuesday States, that's an awful lot of time in politics. 66 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: It certainly is so. Dessandis and Haley seem to be 67 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: just battling each other rather than Trump. And you know 68 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 2: their numbers are just about the same. So what did 69 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: they learn, if anything, from Iowa. 70 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 3: I think what they learned is that they need to 71 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 3: be on top in order to be the candidate that 72 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 3: consolidates the not Trump vote. What you have if you're 73 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 3: DeSantis and Haley and you're thinking about this, what you 74 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 3: think is, First, you know, I've leapfrogged everybody else. Now 75 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 3: my task is I've got to leapfrog the other Not 76 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 3: Trump candidate. I've got to be the alternative to Trump. 77 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 3: The vast majority of that fifty percent vote comes to me, 78 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 3: and then I can douke it out with Trump. I 79 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 3: mean that that is what they're thinking about right now. 80 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 2: Trump pulls strongly with working class white voters. He one 81 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: with white evangelical Christians who are nearly half of the 82 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 2: caucus goers in Iowa. Is there any chance for DeSantis 83 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 2: or Haley to pick off those voters? 84 00:04:58,600 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 4: Oh? 85 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 3: I think some Iowa I think is unique or unusual 86 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 3: in the in both the amount of Evangelicals that exist 87 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: and how and how much and how well they're organized. Frankly, yeah, 88 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 3: sure they could do that. But what you're I think 89 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 3: what you're seeing is a situation where you know, Trump 90 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 3: is kind of topping at fifty percent right now. He's 91 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 3: not going to be fifty percent in New Hampshire almost certainly. 92 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 3: If he does, you know, we'll have a different narrative 93 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 3: next week. But almost certainly he doesn't get to fifty 94 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 3: percent or close to it, you will have a more 95 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: competitive race. And then what you're going to have is 96 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 3: you're going to have a free for all in the 97 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 3: first two weeks of March, where the voters starts sorting 98 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 3: themselves out. So right now it's very much anybody's race. 99 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 3: And there are a lot of variables here, you know, 100 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 3: including the desire to want to stop Trump from getting 101 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 3: the nomination. You know that I think, frankly haven't crystallized yet. 102 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 2: So Haley is heading to New Hampshire. Dessantis is heading 103 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: to South Carolina. Tell us about the importance of New Hampshire. 104 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 3: Well, I think New Hampshire is much more of a 105 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 3: hinge for the race than Iowa might be. You know, 106 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 3: your colleague Mike McKee points out that drilled down even 107 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: farther than I did on results in discussing this today, 108 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 3: and you know, points out essentially that there's about two 109 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 3: and a half percent of Iolands that actually voted in 110 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 3: the Iowa caucus. And this is a state that has 111 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 3: a seventy five percent or had it in twenty twenty 112 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 3: a seventy five percent turnout rate statewide. So this is 113 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 3: a very very tiny sliver of Iowan's Generally, New Hampshire 114 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 3: I think is more of a more of a hinge 115 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 3: because what you have is a situation where Hayley looks 116 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 3: like she's surging, looks like she's competitive, and the not 117 00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 3: Trump vote today exceeds the Trump vote. And so if 118 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 3: that's a trend and that continues over the next month 119 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 3: or so, you know, then you've got a much bigger race. 120 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 3: But if over the next week Trump tamps that down 121 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 3: and New Hampshire rights come away from this thinking, well, 122 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 3: you know, I'm probably going to vote for Trump over Haley. 123 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 3: Let's say then that narrative gets shot to pieces. But 124 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 3: right now it's still much, very much anybody's ballgame in 125 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 3: New Hampshire. And what happens in New Hampshire frankly flavors 126 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 3: the race going forward, where people will spend the next 127 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 3: month after New Hampshire saying, well, is Trump you know, 128 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 3: is Trump Ashley invincible? Well, you know, it seems like 129 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 3: he was in Iowa, but maybe not in New Hampshire. 130 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 3: And that provides alone, provides some running room for Haley 131 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 3: and DeSantis to try to keep consolidating the vote. 132 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: And Desanti is going to South Carolina and basically skipping 133 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 2: New Hampshire. What is he giving up by doing that. 134 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 3: Well, he's giving up a New Hampshire caveness, obviously. But 135 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 3: the but de Santis's uh, the Santas's idea all along 136 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 3: was he was going to go as hard into Iowa 137 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 3: as he possibly could. He was going to be as 138 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 3: well organized as possible. That probably brought him the uh, 139 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 3: the the scraping out the second place that in fact happened. 140 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 3: He got the endorsement of the vast majority of the 141 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 3: regulars in the Iowa Republican Party from Governor Reynolds on down, 142 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 3: and he also got the evangelical endorsement. 143 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 5: Uh. 144 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 3: I think he thinks that he could play whatever the 145 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 3: whatever the result in New Hampshire is, he can play 146 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 3: well in South Carolina. Firstly, Secondly, it's it's an awfully 147 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 3: good opportunity for him to go take Haley out. Uh, 148 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: since if she's weak in her own home state. Uh, 149 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 3: DeSantis would think that would that would turn the not 150 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 3: Trump side of the vote much more to DeSantis. 151 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 2: So do you think that DeSantis has an advantage over 152 00:08:58,200 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 2: Haley at this point? 153 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 3: I think it's a little too soon to say. What 154 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,319 Speaker 3: you've got is a situation. I don't have the exact 155 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 3: numbers in front of me, but you've got a situation 156 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 3: whereas Desanta's is second place is basically eked out about 157 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 3: four thousand more votes than Haley did, with about on 158 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,559 Speaker 3: Haley and Desantas together roughly about forty five to fifty 159 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 3: thousand votes cast. So you know, I think he probably 160 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 3: thinks he has the ability to have an advantage over 161 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 3: Haley if he spends a month hammering away in South Carolina. 162 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 3: Certainly that that will weaken Haley and enhance his chances 163 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 3: to some extent, but I doubt very much that he 164 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,199 Speaker 3: sees the opportunity to be free and clear. I think 165 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 3: this is going to be a race for the half 166 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 3: of the vote that's not Trump for the next four 167 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 3: to five weeks. 168 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 2: Frankly, and as far as fundraising does, DeSantis have more 169 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 2: of an uphill battle there than. 170 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 3: Haley right right now. And I mean this includes Wall 171 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 3: Street of course, but right now a lot of the 172 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 3: Wall Street money has gone to Haley, frankly, because based 173 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 3: on polling, Haley has seems to be a better matchup 174 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 3: candidate against Biden in the fall general election. And certainly, 175 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 3: what a lot of deep pocketed Wall Street people have 176 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 3: wanted and a lot of other people have wanted is 177 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 3: a candidate that most clearly can beat Biden and most 178 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 3: clearly is business friendly. Both of these candidates are certainly 179 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 3: business friendly. Where Haley's advantages that she looks more electable, 180 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 3: it's going to be up to Disantus to counter that 181 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 3: narrative he does to some extent already by talking about, 182 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 3: you know, he's the only person that's actually got a 183 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 3: track record of doing a bunch of things that are 184 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 3: business friendly and economically positive. But he's going to have 185 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 3: to ramp that up in order to separate himself from Haley. 186 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 3: I think, so. 187 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 2: Does he have to win one of these early states 188 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 2: in order to continue. 189 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 3: I think what he has to do is he has 190 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 3: to have a very good showing in South Carolina or 191 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 3: it's going to be difficult for him. And then he's 192 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 3: going to have a situation where there are in the 193 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 3: first two weeks of March alone, there's something there's something 194 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 3: like something like eleven primaries and six caucuses, I mean, 195 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 3: a real dump of information and voting all at once. 196 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 3: His job is going to have to be coming out 197 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 3: looking like the better alternative than Haley in the early 198 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 3: Super Tuesday states in order to remain viable. 199 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 2: So tell us more. You think that if Trump is 200 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 2: the nominee, the Republican Party won't unite behind him, even 201 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:45,679 Speaker 2: though you hear even from the former governor of New Hampshire. Well, 202 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,319 Speaker 2: if it's Trump, I'll vote for Trump. Of course, I'll 203 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 2: support the Republican nominee. You think that that won't happen, 204 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 2: Republicans won't fall in line. 205 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 3: I'll take the quote that you just gave me. I 206 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: will vote for Trump and I will support the nominee. 207 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 3: What isn't said there is that I will actively go 208 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 3: out and try to and try to make the nominee win. 209 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 3: I think what you're going to have as a situation, 210 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 3: and you know, this is developing, and I think it 211 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 3: develops into the spring and summer. Frankly, but if Trump 212 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 3: is the nominee, uh, You're going to have a situation 213 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 3: where uh, Republican luminaries in the Republican Party are going 214 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 3: to are going to say to themselves, what's better for me? 215 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 3: Is it better for me to firstly say I won't 216 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 3: vote for Trump and you shouldn't either, or should I 217 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 3: say I'm gonna you know, I'll absolutely support the nominee, 218 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 3: but then absolutely do nothing other than say that in 219 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 3: order to support uh. You know, there's that number one. 220 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 3: Number two. I point out the and have for the 221 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,439 Speaker 3: last several days. One of the most interesting findings of 222 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 3: the Iowa poll the Moines and the Des Moines Register 223 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: runs a very accurate kind of gold standard poll, which 224 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 3: showed him that that about thirty percent of Iowans who 225 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 3: were going to vote in the caucuses said they wouldn't 226 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 3: support Trump in the general. I think you get a 227 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 3: voter split here too. And you know, the way I 228 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 3: look at Trump, and have looked at him for some time, 229 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 3: is a lot like a pig and a python. You know, 230 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 3: what's what's really if you're an officeholder, if you're a 231 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 3: republic what I call a Republican luminary, your interest is 232 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 3: in getting past Trump as much as possible. You know, 233 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 3: if you if you're not enamored of Trump in the party, 234 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,959 Speaker 3: you know you want him past you. If you if 235 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 3: you were very enamored with Trump but he loses, well 236 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 3: then maybe you become more prominent as a result of that. 237 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 3: But either way, the way to get past Trump is 238 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 3: to is to have him lose. And and you know 239 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,959 Speaker 3: that's why politicians think. And I think you'll see a 240 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 3: lot more of that coming up. 241 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 2: Terry, I think we'll leave it with pig and the python. 242 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 2: And thank you so much for being with us. That's 243 00:13:58,000 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 2: Terry Haynes, founder of penji A. 244 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 245 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 246 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 247 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 248 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 249 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 2: It was Taiwan's most hotly contested election in decades, and 250 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 2: Taiwan elected current Vice President b Ching Day as leader 251 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,479 Speaker 2: of the country at the center of US China tensions, 252 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 2: putting in power a man Beijing has branded an instigator 253 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 2: of war. What happens next is anyone's guests joining us 254 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 2: is Sean King, senior vice president at Park Strategies. Sean 255 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 2: just set the stage a little bit explain China's warnings 256 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 2: before the election. 257 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 6: Beijing had said, well, you know, Beijing is uncomfortable even 258 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 6: discussing Taiwan's elections because their theory is that people who 259 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 6: are Chinese are incompatible with Western style demoscery democracy. So 260 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 6: even acknowledging that people in Taiwan have a choice to 261 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 6: their leader sort of betrays their own system at home. 262 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 6: But they had let it be known that they were 263 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 6: interested in either one of the opposition candidates winning and 264 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 6: not the current vice president who is now the president elect. 265 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 6: So if anybody at all listen to what Beijing was saying, 266 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 6: however cryptically they said it, they rejected it, and now. 267 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 2: So the situation is China says Taiwan is part of China, 268 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: even though the Communist Party that has never controlled Taiwan. 269 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 2: What is this a source of continuing animosity between China 270 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: and the US and does this election threaten to ratchet 271 00:15:59,000 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 2: that up? 272 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 6: While starting first in the late seventeenth century, Taiwan has 273 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 6: been part of China for a total of two hundred 274 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 6: and seventeen years, but only for four years since eighteen 275 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 6: ninety five and not at all since nineteen forty nine, 276 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 6: at least governed by the mainland. But the fact is 277 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 6: that it's never been under PRC control and the PLA, 278 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 6: the People's Liberation Army, has never set foot on any 279 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 6: part of Taiwan. So even though Taiwan has been part 280 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 6: of China historically at different points in its history, and 281 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 6: before that it was actually home to Dutch and Spanish 282 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 6: settlements and settled originally by austron Asian aboriginal peoples, it's 283 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 6: never been under PRC control. So if you listen to 284 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 6: Mao and Kissinger from the old days and PRC officials today, 285 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 6: Taiwan is the main irridant or the main issue in 286 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 6: US PRC relations because until nineteen seventy nine, we recognized 287 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 6: the government in Taipei as the Chinese government as opposed 288 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 6: to Beijing. We never recognized Taiwan as Taiwan, say, but 289 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 6: we just recognized the government there as a sole legitimate 290 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 6: Chinese government. So for US, I think the issues with 291 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 6: the PRC are much bigger, whether it's freedom or religion, 292 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 6: freedom of expression, the South China Sea, Beijing's backstopping North Korea. 293 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 6: There are a lot of different things that play. It's 294 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 6: refusal to take a clear moral stand on the Ukraine War. 295 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 6: But for Beijing, the Taiwan issue is front and center 296 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 6: because the Communist Party of China has staked itsself on 297 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 6: Chinese nationalism, and also getting Taiwan would allow it to 298 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 6: project naval power into the Western Pacific. So right now, 299 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 6: I would say, especially from Beijing side, Taiwan is the 300 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 6: number one issue in US PRC relations. 301 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 2: So then how big of a loss was this for 302 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 2: Beijing to have Taiwan ignoring its warnings, however subtle they 303 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 2: may have been. 304 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 6: Well, the fact that people on Taiwan are voting at 305 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 6: all as a loss for Beijing. But this in particular 306 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 6: is an extra special loss. But people have been ignoring 307 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 6: or turning their noses up at Beijing's warnings ever since 308 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 6: nineteen ninety In nineteen ninety six, when Taiwanese had the 309 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 6: audacity or temerity, as you would hear PRC officials say it, 310 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 6: to actually vote for their first freely elected president, Lee 311 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 6: Dung Wai, who got his PhD at Cornell. I might add, 312 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 6: they shot missiles into the Taiwan straight hoping to intimidate 313 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 6: people from going to the polls. Even more people showed 314 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 6: up when ju Umji, the premiere of the PRC in 315 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 6: two thousand, voted people not to vote for Tchenhubien. He 316 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 6: did end up winning in a three way race, and 317 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,439 Speaker 6: most people think that got Chen at least two to 318 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 6: three extra points in the polls. So I'm sure whatever 319 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 6: interference Beijing tried this time only made people more sympathetic 320 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 6: to lie. Also, former taiwan President Maying Joe, who's drifted 321 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 6: closer to the PRC in retirement, said that Taiwanese who 322 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 6: welcome unifications so long as that's peaceful, and Toy told 323 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,719 Speaker 6: deuts Cheavella German TV that Taiwanese should trust Shijingping that 324 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 6: I'm sure only increased support for Lie. But even the 325 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 6: KMT candidate who's thought to be China friendly, which is 326 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 6: kind of a mischaracterization, he's native Taiwanese. He spoke in 327 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 6: the Taiwanese and he rejected Beijing's Hong Kong one country, 328 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 6: two systems proposal for Taiwan. Only one to two percent 329 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 6: of people on Taiwan support immediate unification of any kind, 330 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,479 Speaker 6: So for years and years, and even more so echoed 331 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 6: on Saturday, Taiwanese categorily reject any overture from the mainland. 332 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 2: Is there a fear among Taiwanese that China might take 333 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 2: some action, you know, military exercises or otherwise in light 334 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 2: of the election returns, We seem to be. 335 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 6: More worried about Taiwan security than Taiwanese themselves are. After 336 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 6: Nancy Pelosi, a freely elected leader, was welcomed to Taiwan 337 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 6: by another freely elected leader and exchange in democratic exercise 338 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 6: and exchange of ideas. Beijing, of course did these made 339 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:53,679 Speaker 6: for Hollywood exercises around Taiwan. And you know, most people 340 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,919 Speaker 6: there in Taiwan, they've learned to live with it. You know, 341 00:19:56,000 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 6: for seventy years they've feared Beijing invading the island, so yes, 342 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 6: I mean this is on their mind long term, but 343 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 6: that's not going to stop them from living their lives, 344 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 6: and they don't expect any immediate action, nor do I. 345 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,400 Speaker 6: You know, people compare it to Ukraine, but I don't 346 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 6: see the comps Russian soldiers were able to waltz across 347 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 6: an unguarded Ukrainian land border where many senior Russian officials 348 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 6: had actually served in the Soviet Army. It's one hundred 349 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 6: miles between Taiwan and the mainland rough seas we would 350 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 6: see it coming, and Biden has said four times we 351 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 6: would defend Taiwan in the case of attack, even though 352 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,199 Speaker 6: there's obviously no treaty obligation to do so, because you 353 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 6: can't have a treaty with someone you don't recognize. 354 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 3: But I think that. 355 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 6: Taiwan is too important for the free world to lose, 356 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 6: so the US would intervene if Beijing unprovoked attack the island. 357 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 6: So most people don't expect an invasion anytime soon, and 358 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 6: that's my feeling as well. 359 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 2: Well. Those are good words, good thoughts. Thank you so much. 360 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 2: For joining us on the show. That's John King, Park Strategy, 361 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:58,400 Speaker 2: Senior Vice President. 362 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: Your Last Thing, the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 363 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 364 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 365 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 366 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 2: Fresh off his victory in the Iowa Republican Caucuses, Donald 367 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: Trump arrived in a Manhattan courtroom this morning for the 368 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: next trial of his crowded legal calendar, this time in 369 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 2: a defamation lawsuit by e. Gene Carroll, the writer who 370 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 2: won a separate sexual abuse case against him last year. 371 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 2: My guest is Dave Ehrenberg, the Palm Beach County state attorney. 372 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 2: He joins us in our New York studios. Dave, you 373 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 2: left sunny Palm Beach to be here in New York 374 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 2: for the snowstorm. 375 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 3: And there's no place I'd rather be. 376 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, Well, Donald Trump is here too. 377 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 2: He continues his tour of courtrooms around the country, like 378 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 2: the DC Appellate Court last week. He doesn't have to 379 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 2: be in the courtroom, but he is for the very 380 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 2: beginning of the trial. So what do you make of this? 381 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 2: Is he trying to impact the jury or impact the voters. 382 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 5: Impact the voters. This is all about public relations. This 383 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 5: case has already been lost. The judge said, we're not 384 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 5: going to relitigate the past trial, which said, according to 385 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 5: the jury, that Donald Trump committed sexual assault against Egene 386 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 5: Carroll and committed defamation against her. So now we're just 387 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 5: talking about damages. How many millions in compensatory and possible 388 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 5: punitive damages will be assessed. So the only reason why 389 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 5: Trump is there, I think, is to try to gain 390 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,400 Speaker 5: political points, to show that he is being derided as 391 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 5: the leading candid for president. This is the Biden administration 392 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 5: doing this, even though that doesn't make sense, and ultimately 393 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 5: nothing fuels his magabase more than martyrdom and grievance. 394 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 2: Now, I want to talk about what his defense could 395 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 2: possibly be here, because the judge has basically cut off 396 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 2: every avenue of defense that I can see. He can't 397 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 2: say that he can't deny that sexual abuse happened, or 398 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 2: that he believed his statements were true. He can't comment 399 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 2: on Carol's prior romantic relationships or the lack of DNA. 400 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 2: I mean, what is his defense here? 401 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,199 Speaker 5: He doesn't have a defense In fact, I don't think 402 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 5: it's a good move for him to try to testify 403 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 5: it because if he tries to pull what he did 404 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 5: in the New York civil fraud trial in this trial, 405 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 5: he's going to get sanctioned. He's going to get cut off. 406 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 5: This is a jury trial, this is not a bench 407 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 5: trial like the last trial. And you have a federal 408 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,360 Speaker 5: judge and Judge Kaplan who's not messing around judging Goron. 409 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 5: A state court judge in New York gave him a 410 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 5: wider latitude, and he allowed Trump to bash the judge 411 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 5: and the process and the attorneys. That's not going to 412 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 5: happen here. And in this case, he's limited to what 413 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 5: he can say, as you correctly pointed out, they can't 414 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 5: relitigate the last case. He can't attack Egene Carroll. And 415 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 5: so what is he going to say. He's not going 416 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 5: to be able to go on a political rant. So 417 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 5: there really is nothing he could say that could influence 418 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 5: a jury here. Best, he just not testified at all. 419 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 2: So he says he wants to testify. Of course, he 420 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 2: said he wanted to testify at the last Egene Carroll trial. 421 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: So who knows the judge is saying that he can 422 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 2: do so if he wants to testify on Monday, January 423 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 2: twenty second, which is the day before the New Hampshire primary. 424 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 5: So maybe maybe Well, he had a lawyer the last time, 425 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 5: this Tacapina guy, and Tacopina and Trump split up. They 426 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 5: just had a divorce and he's been represented. Now Trump 427 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 5: is by Elena Haba, and Alena Habba is gung ho 428 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 5: on Trump testifying. The word was that Tacopina did not 429 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 5: want Trump to testify. So this is Trump saying, I 430 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:42,719 Speaker 5: am going to do it. 431 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 3: I am going to. 432 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 5: Show that the whole process is of fraud, but he's 433 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 5: not going to be allowed to testify that way. So 434 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 5: in the end, I think he just does what he's 435 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 5: done before, which is to promise that he's going to testify, 436 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 5: but then in the end he does not. 437 00:24:55,400 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 2: So Joe Takapina is a well experienced trial lawyer, so 438 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 2: there is the reason why he doesn't want Trump to testify. 439 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:07,639 Speaker 2: Alena Habba I don't think has much trial experience at all. 440 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 2: And again today she was, you know, sort of the 441 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 2: same thing that happened in the trial, the New York trial. 442 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 2: They seem to be trying to get on the judge's 443 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 2: bad side, challenging the judge and you know, arguing with 444 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 2: the judge. I mean in the New York trual, in 445 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 2: the trial that was ended last week with judge and 446 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 2: gorn I mean, it was it was crazy, some of 447 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,119 Speaker 2: the things that they did and said to this judge 448 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 2: who was going to be making the decision without a jury. 449 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 2: So I'm not sure about her courtroom tactics. 450 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 5: Now, one of the first things they teach you in 451 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 5: law school is never upset the person wearing the black 452 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 5: robe and wielding that gavel. Big mistake, But yet they 453 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 5: keep doing it. And they got away with it with 454 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 5: the judge and Gorin because they knew their goose was 455 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 5: cooked in the New York civil fraud case, so what 456 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 5: do they have to lose? But by attacking judge and 457 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 5: girl on, I think it gave Trump a false sense 458 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 5: of confidence that he can do it again. 459 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 3: This federal judge. 460 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 5: We're talking about lifetime appointments, and these guys run their 461 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 5: court room like a tight ship. And there's no way 462 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 5: that Trump's going to be able to get away with 463 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 5: any of this stuff, especially because it is a jury trial. 464 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 5: So although he promises he's going to testify. I think 465 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 5: this is like other promises where he said he would 466 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 5: promise to testify earlier in the New York Civil Froud case, 467 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,679 Speaker 5: which then he didn't do, or in the first trial 468 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 5: in this matter, he said he would testify and he 469 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,359 Speaker 5: didn't do. Just like he said he would meet with 470 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 5: Bob Muller during the investigation, which he didn't do. And 471 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 5: just like he said he was going to have a 472 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 5: health care plan that comes out in two weeks. 473 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 2: Oh, you're going back far now, but you have a 474 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 2: lot to work with. So what's interesting is the Council 475 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 2: for Egene Carroll Roberta Kaplan expressed concern in recent days 476 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 2: that Trump would attempt to turn the trial into a circus, 477 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 2: and she suggested the judge be prepared to hold Trump 478 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,200 Speaker 2: or his lawyers in contempt of court or issue punitive 479 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 2: fines and monetary sanctions. Was that necessary for her or 480 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:04,159 Speaker 2: just for publicity. Everyone knows Judge Caplin. Judge Caplin is 481 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 2: no nonsense, and he's not going to He doesn't need, it, 482 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 2: seems to me direction from an attorney how to run 483 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 2: his courtroom. 484 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 3: I agree it does. 485 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 5: Caplin is not going to suffer fools lightly, And I 486 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 5: do understand why miss Kaplin no relation. Eging Carroll's lawyer 487 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 5: wanted Trump to say under oath that I will not 488 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 5: violate the court's order. But you know what, she also 489 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 5: wanted Trump to admit under oath that he committed sexual 490 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 5: assault against Eging Carroll. And although the jury found it, 491 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 5: in our country, we still don't force defendants to incriminate 492 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 5: themselves or to stay certain things like I did it, 493 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,199 Speaker 5: I'm guilty. So I think she was asking for too much, 494 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 5: and the judge is not going to go there. 495 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 2: What's unusual in this case is you talk about secret juries, 496 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 2: anonymous juries. This jury is so anonymous that the judge 497 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 2: issued an order. First of all, he issued an order 498 00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 2: that bars Trump and his team from saying a lot 499 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 2: of the things that they have said before. But he 500 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 2: told potential jurors that if they're selected for the trial, 501 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,439 Speaker 2: they should use fake names when discussing the case with 502 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 2: each other, and they wouldn't be permitted to disclose their 503 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 2: role to anyone, including family members. So this judge is 504 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 2: trying to avoid what we've seen Trump before do, which 505 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 2: is issue these sort of either direct or indirect threats. 506 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, I've seen anonymous juries before, but I've never seen 507 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 5: an order where you can't even communicate with each other 508 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 5: using your real name. But it makes sense, you want 509 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,040 Speaker 5: this to be air tight, But it really tells you 510 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 5: what kind of political culture we're in now, what kind 511 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 5: of country we're in now where you have the threat 512 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 5: of violence against your political and legal opponents that's so 513 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 5: pervasive that you need an anonymous jury like you do 514 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 5: in mafia cases. When you are trying a former president 515 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 5: and the leading candidate for president in the Republican side. 516 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 5: This should never be normalized. The fact that the person 517 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 5: who won the Iowa Coxes has to get on a 518 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,479 Speaker 5: plane and go to a courtroom where he's already been 519 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 5: found liable for sexual assault should never be normalized in 520 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 5: this country. 521 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 2: Well. Also, increasingly judges are being threatened. In fact, in 522 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 2: the civil fraud trial before the closing arguments, Judge Angern 523 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 2: was also threatened. And it's it's very difficult to you know, 524 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 2: to be able to protect the judges. Now another you know, 525 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 2: another kind of area where we hadn't been used to 526 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 2: that before. 527 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, judges get their houses swatted, they get threatened, 528 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 5: their families get threatened. And you know, we just seem 529 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 5: to accept that this is not how a functioning democracy 530 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 5: is supposed to work. We're not a fascist country, at 531 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,959 Speaker 5: least not yet, and you're not supposed to threaten your 532 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 5: political or legal enemies. But that is what certain elements 533 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 5: of the MAGA movement have done. And look, it's not everyone, 534 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,960 Speaker 5: but you have extremists within the movement who think that 535 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 5: anyone who attacks the leader needs to be threatened and 536 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 5: really possibly even killed. And that is absolutely unacceptable, and 537 00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 5: we need leaders to stand up and say no, this 538 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 5: is not to go on any longer. 539 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 2: Now, Trump, what's curious to me, but he has escalated 540 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 2: his attacks against Egene Carroll. He's repeated what's already been 541 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,719 Speaker 2: determined in the last trial to be defamatory. So after 542 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 2: his after the actually it wasn't after the close of 543 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,239 Speaker 2: the closing arguments, it was during the during the New 544 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 2: York Attorney General's closing arguments, Trump held his own press 545 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:31,080 Speaker 2: conference downtown in his building on the Woolworth Building, and 546 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,120 Speaker 2: he repeated that he'd never heard of her before, he 547 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 2: didn't know who she was. So I mean, we're going 548 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 2: to keep having trial after trial after trial if he 549 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 2: repeats the defamation. 550 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,960 Speaker 5: Yes, until the cost of saying these things is so 551 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 5: great where he gets hit with such punitive damages that 552 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 5: it's not worth it anymore. So one of two things 553 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 5: has to happen for this to stop. Either the punitive 554 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 5: damages in this case or a subsequent case has to 555 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 5: be so great that he assides not worth it, or 556 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 5: he actually gets a political hit from it where his 557 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 5: poll numbers drop, and then I think he'll back away 558 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 5: from it. But right now, neither of these things has happened. 559 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 5: He got fined five million dollars in the first case. 560 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 5: That's not enough for him to change his behavior. And 561 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 5: he just won the Iowa caucus. So as long as 562 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 5: he keeps winning, he's not going to change his behavior. 563 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 2: Let's turn to it could come down this week. Let's 564 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 2: turn to the case of Trump's claim of absolute presidential 565 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 2: immunity in the DC Circuit Court and the question that 566 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 2: was heard around the country from Judge Florence Pan about 567 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 2: whether or not he could assassinate You could assassinate your 568 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 2: political rivals and still and get away with it because 569 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,479 Speaker 2: of presidential immunity. Do you think that's going to come fast? 570 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 5: That decision I do, and you can see by the 571 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 5: judges questioning it was just such a no brainer. Where 572 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 5: of course a president doesn't have absolute immunity. Of course 573 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 5: they can't kill their political rivals. And look, it's not 574 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 5: so funny when it happens to the other guy. So 575 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 5: if you give Joe Biden this kind of power, he 576 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 5: can cancel the election, arrest Donald Trump, and be president 577 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 5: for life. So of course they're not going to rule 578 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 5: for apsolt immunity. Now the question is how long will 579 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 5: the decision take. I think it'll be soon. 580 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:14,640 Speaker 2: The d C. 581 00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 5: Circuit Court of Appeals has expedited its review. And then 582 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 5: the question is when it's not if when DC Circuit 583 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,760 Speaker 5: rules against Trump, what does a Supreme Court do. I 584 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 5: would bet that they're going to defer to the d 585 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 5: C Circuit and deny review, and then it's game on 586 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 5: in the election interference case in Washington, d C. 587 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 2: I agree with you, but we are in the minority. 588 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 2: I have to say, I think we're in the minority. 589 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 2: I think a lot of you know, legal scholars, legal experts, 590 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 2: think the Supreme Court has to take that case, has 591 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 2: to make the decision, but they already have so many 592 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 2: different issues related to the election coming up that I'm 593 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 2: not sure they want to, you know, go into another 594 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 2: one yet. 595 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 5: Right, this is a no brainer. This is not a 596 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 5: hard one, and the Supreme Court, I think, would rather 597 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 5: deal with others things and it'd be easy. I think 598 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 5: the reason why the Supreme Court one of the reasons 599 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 5: why they denied their own expedited review, because remember Jacksmith 600 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 5: wanted the Supreme Court to bigfoot the d C Circuit 601 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 5: Court of Appeals, and they said, now we're going to 602 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 5: let the DC Circuit handle it. I think one reason 603 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 5: why they did that was that they were going to 604 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 5: defer to the ruling of the d C Circuit, knowing 605 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 5: they would deny presidential absolute immunity. 606 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 2: Do you think that the decision will just be we're 607 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 2: denying absolute presidential immunity, or the judges might have to 608 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 2: set out some of the parameters where presidential immunity might apply. 609 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 5: Judges generally like to rule on the narrowest issue possible, 610 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 5: don't get too ambitious, especially when there's an expedited review. 611 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 5: So I think they're just going to deny it here. 612 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 5: I don't think they're going to go much further, because 613 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 5: you do that, then you open it up to more delays, 614 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 5: and this case, the one Washing d C for election interference, 615 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 5: is the one that's most likely to be tried before 616 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,200 Speaker 5: the election. It's in that sense, the most important case 617 00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 5: because all the others, I think, with the possible exception 618 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 5: of the New York State case on Stormy Daniels, will 619 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,560 Speaker 5: be tried after the election. So that's why I think 620 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,040 Speaker 5: these courts want to get started as soon as possible. 621 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 2: Now. The judge, Judge Tanya Chuckkin, has not she's sort 622 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 2: of put everything on hold, but she hasn't actually you know, 623 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 2: taken it off the docket. The March fifth trial. Do 624 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 2: you think that there's any way they could meet that 625 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 2: if let's say the DC Circuit comes down this week 626 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 2: and says no presidential immunity, the Supreme Court says, no, 627 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 2: we're not going to review it. How long? 628 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,320 Speaker 3: Oh, then it's immediate. 629 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 5: I think also the DC Circuit will remove the gag 630 00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,920 Speaker 5: excuse me, the stay the state of the case immediately, 631 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 5: and then it goes to Tanya chuck and Judge Chutkin, 632 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,360 Speaker 5: she will calendar it. Now it's set for March fourth, 633 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 5: I think within sixty days of that is the trial 634 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 5: that's what I have been saying from the beginning. I'm 635 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 5: going to stick to my prediction, and this case will 636 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,680 Speaker 5: be decided well before the election. And you see the polls. 637 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,360 Speaker 5: Even though Trump won pretty handily in Iowa, still a 638 00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 5: certain segment that says, if he's found guilty of in 639 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,879 Speaker 5: one of these trials, people would switch their vote away 640 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 5: from him. 641 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 2: And very quickly, very briefly, what about your Florida trial 642 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 2: down there on classified documents. You have a date for that. 643 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 5: It's scheduled going May. It ain't going. Here's the thing, 644 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 5: Judge Cannon is slow walking this case. That case in 645 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 5: my neck of the woods is the strongest of all 646 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 5: the four cases against Trump. He has no defense, but 647 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,920 Speaker 5: that case is going to be delayed past the election. 648 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 5: And that's a shame. 649 00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:31,040 Speaker 2: It is a shame. I'm so happy that you came 650 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 2: in today though through all the snow. It was hard 651 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:34,880 Speaker 2: for me to get in from seventy ninth Street to 652 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 2: fifteen Mine Street, so I appreciate your coming in from 653 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 2: however you got here from Pombe. 654 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,040 Speaker 5: It's worse. It's frozen rain. 655 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:47,959 Speaker 1: Now you're listening to the Bloomberg sound on podcast. Catch 656 00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:51,800 Speaker 1: the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 657 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 1: the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg 658 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 1: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 659 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played 660 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven. 661 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 2: The drowning deaths of a woman and two children in 662 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 2: the Rio Grande River as they tried to enter the 663 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:15,360 Speaker 2: United States from Mexico on Friday have intensified tensions between 664 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,560 Speaker 2: Texas and the federal border officials. US border officials say 665 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:24,239 Speaker 2: Texas officers prevented federal border officials from helping them, and 666 00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,319 Speaker 2: that is in dispute. Joining me is Leon Fresco, a 667 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 2: partner at Holland and Knight and the former head of 668 00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:34,160 Speaker 2: the Office of Immigration Litigation in the Obama administration. Leon, 669 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:39,320 Speaker 2: what happened? What do we know happened on Friday? Because 670 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,640 Speaker 2: it seems like there were conflicting reports. 671 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 4: Well, there were conflicting reports, including one from the Congressman 672 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:51,400 Speaker 4: Henry Quaar, who's the esteem congressman along the border. And 673 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 4: so the Department of Justice actually filed a brief of 674 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:59,080 Speaker 4: the Supreme Court that actually discussed this issue slightly more. 675 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,839 Speaker 4: And it seems like there were six migrants that were 676 00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:07,560 Speaker 4: actually in distress, but three by the time the Mexican 677 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,760 Speaker 4: government reported this to the Department of Homeland Security, and 678 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:15,280 Speaker 4: by the time the Department of Homeland Security would have responded, 679 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,919 Speaker 4: it seems like even if Texas had let them in, 680 00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:22,319 Speaker 4: three of them would have already been found deceased. Unfortunately, 681 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,240 Speaker 4: there were two others that were rescued by the Mexican 682 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,400 Speaker 4: government that presumably would have been rescued by the border patrol. 683 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 4: Have they've been allowed to enter, But there is no 684 00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,080 Speaker 4: dispute that the Texas state officials are blocking this park 685 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 4: in Eagle Past, Texas and not permitting the Department of 686 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,640 Speaker 4: Homeland Security officials enter the part which the Department of 687 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:48,799 Speaker 4: Homeland Security officials say is a violation of their right 688 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,960 Speaker 4: to enter in times of emergency, that they have a 689 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,719 Speaker 4: federal right under the supremacy clause to do that. 690 00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 2: And do you agree which side do you agree with? 691 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,040 Speaker 2: Does Texas have the right or does the Department and 692 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 2: Homeland Security have the right. 693 00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 3: It's clear that. 694 00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 4: If there's any kind of transnational emergency that's happening on 695 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 4: the border, that the federal officials have the ability to 696 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 4: access the border to be able to respond to that 697 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,759 Speaker 4: transnational emergency where they can't necessarily do things. Is that 698 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,719 Speaker 4: they were just patrolling this park, and the State of 699 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,800 Speaker 4: Texas said, this is our park to patrol. The federal 700 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,359 Speaker 4: officials who don't have jurisdiction here, that's fine, but in 701 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 4: these situations of an emergency, there's no doubt that the 702 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,799 Speaker 4: federal government has the authority to enter. And so the 703 00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,960 Speaker 4: Texas government not allowing them to enter will probably lead 704 00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,640 Speaker 4: at some point to some sort of injunctive relief that 705 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,840 Speaker 4: will then, if it happens again, could lead to contempt 706 00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:45,880 Speaker 4: of court findings. 707 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,560 Speaker 2: So Texas Governor Greg Gabbitt has been escalating the tensions 708 00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 2: with the federal government over immigration at the border. Is 709 00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,680 Speaker 2: this was this part of the new law that's been 710 00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,160 Speaker 2: passed that hasn't gone into a chair yet where Texas 711 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:08,440 Speaker 2: says that it can its local official officers can arrest migrants, 712 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,400 Speaker 2: which is normally what is a job for the federal government. 713 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 7: Well, this is. 714 00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 4: Part of that overall strategy. The law itself, what it's 715 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,600 Speaker 4: going to do is it's going to say that if 716 00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 4: you're not in Texas legally, it's a misdemeanor that you 717 00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,400 Speaker 4: can then be taken to the border, and if you 718 00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,040 Speaker 4: don't actually cross back into Mexico, you can be re 719 00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:34,840 Speaker 4: arrested again for a felony. And so all of these 720 00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,160 Speaker 4: areas that are being enclosed are part of this overall 721 00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 4: strategy to be able to have places to take people 722 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,439 Speaker 4: to along the border and say you are your two 723 00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:48,439 Speaker 4: choices either go back into Mexico or if you try 724 00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,160 Speaker 4: to come back in, we will arrest you under the 725 00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,520 Speaker 4: Texas Law. Of course, the legality of that Texas Law 726 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 4: is currently under review at the courts and it's probably 727 00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:58,400 Speaker 4: going to work its way all the way up to 728 00:39:58,440 --> 00:39:59,239 Speaker 4: the Supreme Court. 729 00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,759 Speaker 2: This is all part of the bigger problem of immigration 730 00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,279 Speaker 2: and the security at the southern border, and in the 731 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:11,279 Speaker 2: Iowa caucuses, that was one of the major concerns of 732 00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,360 Speaker 2: the caucus goers there, of course Republicans, but one of 733 00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,319 Speaker 2: the major concerns what is the status there. We were 734 00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:24,320 Speaker 2: talking before about negotiations over immigration among you know lawmakers. 735 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 2: I haven't heard about that for a while. What's the 736 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:27,759 Speaker 2: status of that. 737 00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,879 Speaker 4: Well, one of the biggest problems happened in the last 738 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 4: few days where House Speaker Mike Johnson said that he 739 00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 4: thought that there wasn't any legislation that would be able 740 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:43,040 Speaker 4: to be created by this semic group of negotiators that 741 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,360 Speaker 4: would be acceptable to the House, such that this needed 742 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,880 Speaker 4: President Trump to be able to come in and be 743 00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,800 Speaker 4: able to solve this problem, and that what President Biden 744 00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:55,640 Speaker 4: needed to do was just unilaterally act with any powers 745 00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,320 Speaker 4: that he had, but that the legislation to solve the 746 00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,279 Speaker 4: border problem would be too weak if it was the 747 00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:06,279 Speaker 4: current legislation that's being talked about by the Senate. I 748 00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,279 Speaker 4: don't think that's going to be the last word. I 749 00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 4: think that's posturing in many cases. I do think the 750 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,960 Speaker 4: White House wants a deal. The White House is actually 751 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,960 Speaker 4: brought in all the relevant negotiators and chairmen to speak 752 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,400 Speaker 4: later today at the White House to try to get 753 00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,120 Speaker 4: a deal. The White House very much wants a deal. 754 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:28,560 Speaker 4: They're negotiating in areas that make many very Democrats very 755 00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:33,000 Speaker 4: uncomfortable with regard to what kinds of limitations they're willing 756 00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 4: to accept along the border. But at the end of 757 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,880 Speaker 4: the day, it's going to come down to can the 758 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,040 Speaker 4: Senate pass something? And if the Senate can pass something 759 00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,959 Speaker 4: on a bipartisan basis, then they can make the House 760 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:49,080 Speaker 4: look really badly they refuse to pass something, then it 761 00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,560 Speaker 4: becomes evident that the House would be the ones blocking progress. 762 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,920 Speaker 2: And there are some areas where the Senate negotiators have 763 00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:58,719 Speaker 2: come to agreement right. 764 00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,239 Speaker 4: The Senate has some spots with regard to sort of 765 00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:07,080 Speaker 4: a re implementation of Title forty two authority, which was 766 00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:11,359 Speaker 4: the auplority to automatically expel people at the border who 767 00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,040 Speaker 4: don't come in through the ports of entry, who actually 768 00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,960 Speaker 4: try to come in illegally in between the ports of entry, 769 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:22,839 Speaker 4: with limited exceptions for very extreme humanitarian cases. Also an 770 00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,600 Speaker 4: expansion of detention for those kinds of people who enter 771 00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,520 Speaker 4: the United States and are waiting for their cases to 772 00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:33,880 Speaker 4: be heard. But the area that's not yet resolved is 773 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,840 Speaker 4: there are these thirty thousand people per month that the 774 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,640 Speaker 4: Biden administration is allowing legally to enter the United States 775 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:44,640 Speaker 4: from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, that the Biden administration 776 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,000 Speaker 4: argues is necessary so that people don't enter illegally, so 777 00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:51,560 Speaker 4: that people wait in their countries and applied for this program. 778 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,680 Speaker 4: That Republicans want that program eliminated, and they also want 779 00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,600 Speaker 4: it to be eliminated. That basically, under almost all circumstances 780 00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:03,480 Speaker 4: that the Biden administration couldn't find someone with urgent circumstances 781 00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,880 Speaker 4: on the border and admit them I legally, And so 782 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,839 Speaker 4: those two areas are under debate about whether those will 783 00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:10,759 Speaker 4: be accomplished for them. 784 00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,880 Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Leon, that's Leon Fresco, a partner at 785 00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:14,600 Speaker 2: Holland and Knight. 786 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,799 Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Sound on Podcast. Make sure 787 00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,680 Speaker 7: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 788 00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,279 Speaker 7: anywhere else you get your podcasts, And you can find 789 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,440 Speaker 7: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 790 00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:31,560 Speaker 7: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.