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Speaker 1: Good Monday morning, everybody.

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a new episode of the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perraultz. You guys can

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Speaker 2: follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt,

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Speaker 2: and we're into a new week. Forget about last week.

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Speaker 2: Last week was a bad week, losing week. We've started

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Speaker 2: off the month of July pretty cold. We go two

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Speaker 2: and two yesterday, so we're down the juice. Mackenzie Gore

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Speaker 2: had four k's, he got yanked. He was used only

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Speaker 2: for about sixty five pitches on short rest. I thought

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Speaker 2: we might get to four k's. We didn't get there,

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Speaker 2: or five k's. We didn't get there. Aces got smoked

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Speaker 2: again by the Indiana fever at home. No less, that

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Speaker 2: is bad news for Las Vegas Phillies and the Pirates

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Speaker 2: and the Brewers.

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Speaker 1: Both those bets hit.

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Speaker 2: So we go two and two down the juice, but

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Speaker 2: overall losing week yesterday. We hope to get ourselves back

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Speaker 2: here into a winning opportunity in the very near future.

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Speaker 2: One of the ways you guys can pull yourself out

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Speaker 2: of it, or maybe I need to pull myself out

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Speaker 2: as well, is by getting involved with the smart money

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Speaker 2: tool that we've got going on right now. This is new,

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Speaker 2: so we're kind of stressing this kind of heavy because

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Speaker 2: I think this is something that people would find to

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Speaker 2: be pretty cool. We are looking at prediction markets and

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Speaker 2: the data and the liquidity in the prediction markets. So

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Speaker 2: as you head into the second half of the year,

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Speaker 2: or you head into the games tomorrow for the World Cup,

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Speaker 2: this is really going to tell you where a lot

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Speaker 2: of the action is headed and where a lot of

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Speaker 2: the money is going. You can find out the line

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Speaker 2: move and see where the number is going before some

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Speaker 2: sports books actually react to the market, so it gives

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Speaker 2: you an opportunity to be ahead of the game to

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Speaker 2: find out where that money is going and where you

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Speaker 2: can trail sharp money to see it. You're going to

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Speaker 2: vettingpros dot com slash smart. That's bettingpros dot com slash smart.

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Speaker 2: It's a fun thing to do here during the All

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Speaker 2: Star break to take a look at it and kind

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Speaker 2: of figure out how it works and how it might

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Speaker 2: help you for your gambling in the second half of

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Speaker 2: the baseball season. Speaking of the second half of the

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Speaker 2: baseball season, that's what we're gonna do today. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about three bets in the futures market, not about championships.

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Speaker 1: We'll do that, but later on.

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Speaker 2: We have two futures going right now with the White

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Speaker 2: Sox to win the American League and the Brewers to

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Speaker 2: win the World Series.

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Speaker 1: Okay, those two bets are active. We have four bets.

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Speaker 2: However, when it comes to win totals, and those four bets,

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Speaker 2: two of which I think are good and two of

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Speaker 2: which I don't think are good. So I've got kind

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Speaker 2: of a way. It's not really a hedge, but it's

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Speaker 2: a way of sort of getting involved and potentially if

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Speaker 2: we get the bet wrong but something goes our way,

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Speaker 2: we might be able to make up the money and

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Speaker 2: not have it be a loss, to actually make money

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Speaker 2: off of it because of the prices that we're getting

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Speaker 2: here for today, today I think is the worst sports

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Speaker 2: day of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: It just is.

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Speaker 2: You look at what we have tomorrow, World Cup. We

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Speaker 2: have Wednesday, World Cup. The home run derby is not sports. Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's just be frank here. It is not a game.

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Speaker 2: This is an activity. This is an exhibition game. This

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Speaker 2: is the X Games. This is not baseball. And yes,

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Speaker 2: while the home run Derby is fun, it is not sports,

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Speaker 2: so I don't think there's anything on. There's WNBA games, okay,

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Speaker 2: And if you are into the WNBA, I'm sure you

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Speaker 2: like today, I am not into the WNBA LA in Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: Phoenix and Minnesota, Okay. I mean I may put a

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Speaker 2: couple seconds of it on, but I don't follow it

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Speaker 2: all that closely.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I am more riting baseball and other things during the

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Speaker 2: summertime than I am the WNB.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I know people who love the NBA, who make a

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Speaker 2: ton of money on the WNBA.

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Speaker 1: That's just not me. So I mean, for me today,

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Speaker 1: there's really nothing.

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Speaker 2: And I thought about betting the home run derby, but

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Speaker 2: I'm just making it up, like the handicap. I'm just

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Speaker 2: making it up that change the rules every year. It's

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Speaker 2: just it's Mickey mouse stuff to bet on. And I

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Speaker 2: just being as cold as I just was. If I

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Speaker 2: was flush and I was hot and things were rolling,

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Speaker 2: then yeah I would bet the home run derby. But

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Speaker 2: I'm not so like, I just think it's not intelligent

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Speaker 2: when you're not seeing the board well to bet for

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Speaker 2: betting's sake, like you should bet on games you think

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Speaker 2: you have an edge in things. You think you have

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Speaker 2: an advantage on and right now with the home run

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Speaker 2: derby and the new rules and everything else. No, I

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Speaker 2: don't think I have an advantage. So let's talk baseball.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the New York Yankees, who their win

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Speaker 2: total has been adjusted.

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Speaker 1: To ninety and a half. We're gonna bet under that.

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Speaker 2: Here's why the New York Yankees without Aaron Judge are

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Speaker 2: seventeen and nineteen. Aaron Judge is projected to come back

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Speaker 2: in mid to late August.

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Speaker 1: Here is the problem for the New York Yankees.

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Speaker 2: It's their schedule and what the Yankees are gonna face

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Speaker 2: right after the All Star Break, which I think puts

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Speaker 2: it into a very tough spot. Now, they hit the

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Speaker 2: All Star Break winning three games in a row fortually

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Speaker 2: four games in a row against the Rays and the

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Speaker 2: Nationals on the road. They had a successful road trip.

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Speaker 2: It went four and three on the road trip. However,

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Speaker 2: the Yankees hit the All Star Break and come out

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Speaker 2: of it with a three game set against the Dodgers,

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Speaker 2: a three game homestand against the Pirates.

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Speaker 1: Who aren't horrible.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Then they play a road trip at Philly, at

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Speaker 2: the White Sox, at the Cup hopes. Okay, all three

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Speaker 2: of those teams are trying to make the playoffs. Then

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Speaker 2: they play the Cardinals at home, the Braves at home,

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Speaker 2: and Seattle at home. All those teams are trying to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs right out of the gate. The New

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Speaker 2: York Yankees do not get a break. The Yankees currently

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Speaker 2: have fifty four wins. To get there to ninety one wins,

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Speaker 2: they have to win thirty seven games of the sixty

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Speaker 2: six they have left. Could they go thirty six and

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Speaker 2: twenty nine, absolutely, Okay, it's not impossible from the go

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Speaker 2: thirty seven in twenty nine, But I don't think they're

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Speaker 2: going to because of the schedule. Even if Aaron Judge

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Speaker 2: comes back right where we think he's gonna come back,

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Speaker 2: that would be for Friday, August fourteenth, against the Blue

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Speaker 2: Jays on the road.

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Speaker 1: That's the middle of the month. Okay.

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Speaker 2: If he comes back later, they're playing at Toronto, They're

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Speaker 2: playing at Baltimore, then their home against Toronto, they're home

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Speaker 2: against Houston, They're home against the Red Sox until August thirtieth.

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Speaker 1: Let's say it doesn't come back to the end of

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Speaker 1: the month.

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Speaker 2: Now Aaron Judge is looking at now this team is

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Speaker 2: looking at a month of August, in which if they're

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Speaker 2: gonna be a five hundred baseball team, they haven't been

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Speaker 2: a five hundred baseball team without Aaron Judge.

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Speaker 1: They're two games under five hundred.

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Speaker 2: Okay, this schedule to me, I think they are just

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Speaker 2: gonna try to tread water until Judge comes back. And

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Speaker 2: if they tread water, they very well might make the

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Speaker 2: playoffs anyway. Okay, if they get thirty three more wins,

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Speaker 2: they're eighty seven wins. That eighty seven win number is

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Speaker 2: gonna get a wild card spot. Okay, they're gonna get

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs with eighty seven wins given the current

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Speaker 2: state of the American League, and I think they know that.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's just get Judge back for the

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Speaker 2: playoffs and then we go and play that way. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that's the greatest of strategies. I mean, just

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Speaker 2: tread water to get there, but I think that's what

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Speaker 2: the Yankees are.

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Speaker 1: Gonna have to do.

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Speaker 2: Think to go ahead, it's only mines one twenty five

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Speaker 2: Yankees under ninety and a half wins, justed win total

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Speaker 2: for the New York Yankees at minus one twenty five

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Speaker 2: for one point twenty five units. Bet number two and look,

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Speaker 2: hard Rock bet. This is not a hard rock bet

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Speaker 2: of the day, but you could bet this at hard Rock. Okay,

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Speaker 2: hard Rock's got a shot for you here. With the

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Speaker 2: Miami Marlins, the hard rock bet of the day has

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Speaker 2: been sort of an up and down thing, but we

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Speaker 2: do it with hard Rock, and they're the only sportsbook

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Speaker 2: in the state of Florida, but they're also in a

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Speaker 2: variety of other places. Marlins to make the playoffs? How

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Speaker 2: about the Marlins to make the playoffs?

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Speaker 1: Why? Well, a couple reasons.

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Speaker 2: First, the Marlins. We bet them under seventy two and

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Speaker 2: a half wins. That most likely is going to miss

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Speaker 2: unless the Marlins really fall on their face. They're fifty

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Speaker 2: two and forty five. They're seven games over five hundred

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Speaker 2: so far here through ninety seven games, they are in

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Speaker 2: the wildcard conversation without a doubt. They did lose their

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Speaker 2: last three games, and I know I was backing on

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Speaker 2: a bunch of times and they got cold.

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Speaker 1: But they were the hottest team in the month of

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Speaker 1: June into July.

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Speaker 2: They were the hottest team in Major League Baseball, hottest

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Speaker 2: team in the National League. Them in the red Sox

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Speaker 2: both red hot. The Marlins pitch really well. Max Meyer

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Speaker 2: has been an absolute cash cow. We're riding more Max Meyer.

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Speaker 2: Sandel Condra has been very good. Uri Perez has been decent.

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Speaker 2: Their bullpen has been good. Kyle Stores Stores in their

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Speaker 2: offense has been good enough. Okay, it's not been spectacular,

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Speaker 2: but it's been good enough for the Miami Marlins. Miami

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Speaker 2: hits the All Star Break with a plus twenty four

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Speaker 2: run differential, which is better than the Philadelphia Phillies, who

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Speaker 2: have a negative ten run differential. Nowhere near the Braves,

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Speaker 2: who have a plus ninety two. But they're thirty one

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Speaker 2: and twenty at home, solid home record, and they're twenty

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Speaker 2: one and twenty five on the road. They can just

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Speaker 2: play five hundred baseball on the road. The Marlins are

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Speaker 2: going to be right in the conversation. The Cubs have

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Speaker 2: the first wild card, the Phillies have the second wild card,

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Speaker 2: and the Marlins hit the All Star Break with the

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Speaker 2: third wild card. At the moment now, the Cardinals are

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Speaker 2: chasing them, the Pirates are chasing them, the Diamondbacks are

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Speaker 2: chasing them, and the Padres are chasing them. All within

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Speaker 2: three and a half games. So it's not like the

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Speaker 2: Marlins or a shoe in here to make it. However,

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Speaker 2: if you look at the way that Miami is built,

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Speaker 2: they could make a trade to go acquire some bats.

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Speaker 2: Like they could. They got enough pitching, I think to

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Speaker 2: get them there. It's gonna be the offense. And can

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Speaker 2: the offense add a bat or two to help them?

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Speaker 2: And Miami has been very reluctant to add salary, but

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Speaker 2: I think they got a shot here with the way

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Speaker 2: they pitch. And at fifty two wins, how many wins

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Speaker 2: are they going to need to get to to get

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Speaker 2: to the postseason? We bet under seventy two and a half.

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Speaker 2: That ain't happening. Okay, they're gonna go over that. So

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Speaker 2: a way of sort of hedging on that, or maybe

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Speaker 2: even doubling down on that, we go ahead, Marlins to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs at plus two hundred. Okay, the Marlins

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Speaker 2: to make the playoffs at plus two hundred. It's a

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Speaker 2: one unit bet to bring back two units. And look,

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Speaker 2: there's a shot here that you know this would be

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Speaker 2: a one unit profit. We'd lose the one unit with

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Speaker 2: the Marlins to go under seventy two and a half

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Speaker 2: wins and we get the one unit back here for

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Speaker 2: them making the playoffs. I think the Marlins could very

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Speaker 2: well be a really fun story coming down the pike.

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Speaker 2: And like I mentioned, our friends at hard Rock Bet,

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Speaker 2: they are the presenting sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast

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Speaker 2: and they are Florida's sportsbook. So you know everybody down

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Speaker 2: in Miami will be cheering on the Marlins, looking for

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Speaker 2: the Marlins to do something special if possible, and hard

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Speaker 2: Rock Bet is set up for it. They also obviously

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Speaker 2: are geeked and ready to go for what's gonna happen

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Speaker 2: coming up here for the final four for the world's

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Speaker 2: biggest soccer tournaments. We're down to just three matches left

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Speaker 2: in the biggest soccer tournaments and no book is built

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Speaker 2: like hard Rock Bet for Viva La Copa awesome most

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Speaker 2: going on. They have the no goals no problem. They've

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Speaker 2: got bets to win in regulation match to end scoreless

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Speaker 2: after ninety plus stoppage time. If that happens, you'll get

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Speaker 2: a bonus bet back. I've up the two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty dollars so when the goals go missing, your bet doesn't.

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Speaker 2: They've got the super sub promo and more out there

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Speaker 2: if you bet on I got a score and his

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Speaker 2: sub comes in and he scores, you still win your

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Speaker 2: original bet at your original price.

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Speaker 1: Tag down on the hard rock bet app today.

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Speaker 2: Don't the Cup's biggest games go passing you by roll

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Speaker 2: with us, goal with us with hard Rock bet as

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Speaker 2: the games get back going tomorrow. Finally, let's talk Red

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Speaker 2: Sox Red Sox to make the playoffs. Why okay, one

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Speaker 2: Red Sox are gonna lose that bet for us to

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Speaker 2: go over eighty seven and a half wins.

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Speaker 1: That's not happening.

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Speaker 2: Okay, the Red Sox are two games under five hundred

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Speaker 2: and they're not gonna win that. I mean unless they

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Speaker 2: go absolutely nuclear. They have forty six wins at the moment, right,

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Speaker 2: socks are gonna go win forty one games after the

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Speaker 2: All Star break? I mean, I guess, but most likely No,

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Speaker 2: that's not gonna happen.

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Speaker 1: So what do we do?

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Speaker 2: The Red Sox are half a game out behind the

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Speaker 2: Twins for the third and final wildcard spot as they

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Speaker 2: just wrapped up their first nine to zero road trip

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Speaker 2: since nineteen seventy seven. Okay, this Red Sox team is

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Speaker 2: pitching at such an elite level and they don't have

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Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet. That is the hook here for this bet

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Speaker 2: that if Garrett Crochet comes back like they're expecting him

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Speaker 2: to come back. I don't even care about Roman Anthony

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Speaker 2: because they need him back too, But Garrett Crochet coming back,

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Speaker 2: and you have Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Rangers Sworez in

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Speaker 2: the bullpen. And I don't know if they're going to

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Speaker 2: trade away or all this Chatman like everyone thought they

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Speaker 2: were going to. I mean, why would they They're in

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Speaker 2: a playoff chase. I guess they could get something, but

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Speaker 2: it would be such a bad move pr wise by

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Speaker 2: the Red Sox to trade Chapman to get rid of

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Speaker 2: him given what they have done, unless they've got somebody

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Speaker 2: they feel as good to back end the games for

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Speaker 2: the Red Sox. I don't think that's gonna happen, but

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Speaker 2: I mean we could. But even if they do trade him,

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Speaker 2: the bullpen's been tremendous. The starting pitching has been awesome.

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Speaker 2: Red Sox have had so many quality starts in the

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Speaker 2: last two months, and this team right now is starting

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Speaker 2: to believe.

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Speaker 1: There's a buzz in New England right now.

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Speaker 2: About the Red Sox going hold on a second look

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Speaker 2: what this team is, and look where they're going up against.

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Speaker 2: When the Red Sox are fully healthy. Are they better

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Speaker 2: than the Guardians? Absolutely? Are they better than the Mariners? Absolutely?

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Speaker 2: Are they better than the Twins? Absolutely? At full strength,

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Speaker 2: Boston is better than those three teams, and those are

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Speaker 2: the three teams they are chasing. The Yankees are gone. Okay,

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Speaker 2: They're six and a half games up on the Guardians.

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Speaker 2: They have fifty four wins and forty two losses. The

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Speaker 2: Red Sox are six games behind the Yankees in the

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Speaker 2: loss column. I guess they could catch them, but most

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Speaker 2: likely they're not going to unless we see an epic

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Speaker 2: collapse by the Yankees. We could hit both bets on

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Speaker 2: this Yankees under ninety and a half wins and the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox to make the playoffs would catch both if

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Speaker 2: Boston catch caught the Yankees there, But I mean, I.

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Speaker 1: Don't think it's going to happen.

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Speaker 2: But the Red Sox going nine one over their final

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Speaker 2: ten games before the All Star Break, knowing that they're

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Speaker 2: gonna get help with Roman Anthony and getting Garrett Crochet

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Speaker 2: back onto the mound, they just need to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Red Sox to make the postseason I think this is

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Speaker 2: a very it's a it's somewhat aggressive, but they make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, they win a wild card, they get in.

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Speaker 1: Red Sox are in that cash it.

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Speaker 2: A plus one forty five bet for us for the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox to make the playoffs. I like it Red

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Speaker 2: Sox to make the playoffs at plus one forty five

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Speaker 2: for one unit. Kind of a makeup bet for the

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Speaker 2: fact that they're not going to go over eighty seven

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Speaker 2: and a half wins this season. So if they make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs and eighty one wins to make the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: we cash that bet and it makes up for the loss.

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Speaker 2: We get plus one forty five coming back, and it

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Speaker 2: makes up for the juice we laid with the Red

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Speaker 2: Sox to make the playoffs. So three bets for us

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Speaker 2: coming up here today. Red Sox to make the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: a plus one forty five, Marlins to make the playoffs

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Speaker 2: at plus two hundred, and the Yankees to go under

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Speaker 2: ninety and a half wins in the regular season.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 1: across all my.

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Speaker 2: Socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice