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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Bob Michael at JP Morgan, We're going to try to

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Speaker 2: get him in here. You have an outlook out there,

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Speaker 2: and I see an outlook of price up yeld down.

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Speaker 3: Is that the outlook at JP Morgan?

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Speaker 4: Yes, it is. We're off to a fantastic start for

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Speaker 4: the third quarter, probably not a repeat of the second

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Speaker 4: quarter with all the volatility, but some expectation of the

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Speaker 4: Fed bringing rates down by the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: Is in the bond world is there fear of missing out?

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Speaker 2: Is there fomo among bon buyers?

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Speaker 4: We're starting to feel that now there are more and

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Speaker 4: more conversations with clients who are in cash looking for

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Speaker 4: an opportunity to get into the bond market and trying

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Speaker 4: to figure out where in the bond market to go.

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Speaker 4: There's still a ton of ton of money in market

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Speaker 4: money market funds and in cash accounts, deposit accounts, checking accounts,

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Speaker 4: savings accounts, the last time we looked at was over

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Speaker 4: twenty one trillion dollars, which was a new high.

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Speaker 1: Bob.

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Speaker 5: We saw earlier in the Europe a move of capital

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Speaker 5: out of the US into other markets, notably the European

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Speaker 5: equity markets, and they're outperforming the US equity markets.

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Speaker 6: Have we seen that in a fixed income world as well?

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Speaker 4: We actually haven't. There's been a lot of discussion about it,

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Speaker 4: a lot of conversation. There was a bit of a

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Speaker 4: pause in the end of April start of May where

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Speaker 4: foreign investors who would typically put money to work in

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Speaker 4: the US bond market just stopped and then it started

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Speaker 4: up again. And we've seen you no selling of US

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Speaker 4: fixed income assets and reallocation overseas. What we have seen

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Speaker 4: is rethinking whether they want the dollar exposure to go

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Speaker 4: along with that. Most now are taking some dollar exposure,

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Speaker 4: but hedging some back to their base currency.

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg Dollar index. You bring it up, the Bloomberg dollar

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Speaker 5: indexes down almost ten percent this year.

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Speaker 6: We don't see that very often, do we. What do

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Speaker 6: you make of it?

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Speaker 4: For us? It's a reflection of an overcrowded, overbaught trade. Okay,

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Speaker 4: where coming into this year, everyone wondered, how is the

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Speaker 4: dollar up there so high? What's keeping it up there?

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Speaker 4: And it kept going, and then there was a catalyst

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Speaker 4: and reason to diversify out of dollars. We think, actually

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Speaker 4: there's another five percent move in the dollar index lower.

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Speaker 3: I modeled it today.

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Speaker 2: I did not use Fibonacci's which I really don't believe in,

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Speaker 2: and I came with it for a decline of bbdxy

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Speaker 2: of six point three percent total fourteen to fifteen percent down,

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Speaker 2: and that takes it back to that range that we're at.

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Speaker 2: You're in meetings with lots of foreigners using JP Morgan

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Speaker 2: for wisdom on American full faith and credit? Do you

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Speaker 2: see any tendency that they want to walk away at

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Speaker 2: the margin of a belief to own and at the

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Speaker 2: margin by acquire our bills, notes and bonds?

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Speaker 4: None whatsoever. There is no concern about the full faith

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Speaker 4: and credit of the US Treasury. There was a bit

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Speaker 4: of a pause on the amount of supply. Would it

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Speaker 4: be too much? But there was a lot of conversation

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Speaker 4: about looking for an alternate. Do we have to have

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Speaker 4: everything in dollar assets? Isn't there something else that could

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Speaker 4: act as a calm in the storm? To treasuries and dollars.

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Speaker 4: I think that's why you've seen gold, and we should

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Speaker 4: see continued support of gold. We should also pay attention

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Speaker 4: to what's going on in Central Portugal this week, where

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Speaker 4: the ECB has some pressure.

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Speaker 3: Not there exactly, I mean, do.

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Speaker 4: You know what I wish I was there. I wouldn't

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Speaker 4: be surprised if Briest is there, but it's an opportunity

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Speaker 4: for them to try to establish more of a leadership

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Speaker 4: role here.

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Speaker 2: When you were studying Greek and Latin at Penn, I'm

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Speaker 2: sure you looked at the x axis, probably in all

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Speaker 2: three languages. But the answer is, okay, they want to

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Speaker 2: buy us, but they adjusted their maturity perspective because of

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Speaker 2: all the fun and games we're going through.

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Speaker 4: By and large, the investors we deal with where we've

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Speaker 4: seen a lot of clothes from wealth management channels and

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Speaker 4: total return investors has always been the intermediate part of

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Speaker 4: the curve. The long end of the curve is really

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Speaker 4: owned by pension funds and insurance company and they're far

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Speaker 4: more strategic and where and how they invest, and they

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Speaker 4: have certain trigger levels depending on their estimate of liabilities.

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Speaker 4: I would say they've been pretty steady investors. In the

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Speaker 4: current environment, it feels like there's no sponsorship for the

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Speaker 4: long end of the curve. Usually get that when you

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Speaker 4: have the FED bringing down rates. Let's not forget when

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Speaker 4: we get to the point in the cycle, hopefully years

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Speaker 4: from now, when the FED is hiking rates, then curve

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Speaker 4: flatteners will be in vogue again, and then there will

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Speaker 4: be buying at the long end.

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Speaker 3: Paul, can I help this morning? Please? Price up, yield down,

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Speaker 3: pretium octum, preventu's diminutum. Oh my goodness, like Latin. Okay,

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Speaker 3: that's what Michael. He goes out on the floor when

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Speaker 3: the world's blown up. Its JP Morgan.

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Speaker 6: I'm a big fan of Vatican two, which get away

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Speaker 6: with Lenin?

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Speaker 4: Was that Google translator?

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Speaker 3: And I'm sure exactly, Bob.

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Speaker 6: How much credit risk do we take here?

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Speaker 5: I think I'm not hearing anybody talk about recession, so

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Speaker 5: shouldn't I be taking some credit risk here?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, you get concerned about credit risk when you think

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Speaker 4: you're headed into recession. It makes sense. Recession by definition

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Speaker 4: is lower corporate profitability. The most levered companies have to

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Speaker 4: go some sort of restructuring. Defaults go up, you get

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Speaker 4: widespread de risking because everyone's concerned where the defaults could occur.

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Speaker 4: We've been trained every other time there's a backup in

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Speaker 4: credit spreads, you buy it if there's no recession. And

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Speaker 4: we saw that earlier when credit spreads got to about

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Speaker 4: four point fifty on high yield, and then suddenly there

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Speaker 4: was a break in tariffs and probabilities of recession went down,

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Speaker 4: and suddenly here we are through three hundred basis points

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Speaker 4: on high yield.

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Speaker 5: All right, you're CIO and head of Global Fixed Income,

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Speaker 5: Currency and Commodities Group.

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Speaker 6: Something to tek you about odities, gold hiring. What are

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Speaker 6: we doing with gold here? Why are we all not

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Speaker 6: owning gold?

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Speaker 4: Well, actually, we think you should. We think of all

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Speaker 4: the options for an alternate safe haven, a counterbalance to risk.

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Speaker 4: Treasuries are out there, high quality bonds are out there,

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Speaker 4: investors are adding those. Gold is another one of those

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Speaker 4: generally accepted vehicles. We expect to see more buying.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's just amazing. What's going on? Is that

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Speaker 5: just Chinese banks and Chinese consumers buying it?

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Speaker 6: Is there something else going on with gold?

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Speaker 4: No, it's developed market. Central banks have been adding to

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Speaker 4: their gold reserves, its wealth management platforms have been talking

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Speaker 4: to clients about holding some gold. It's not only a

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Speaker 4: safe haven, it's also a reasonably good hedge against inflation.

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Speaker 4: And just in case we get into next year and

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Speaker 4: suddenly all the liquid editing in the system gets ignited

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Speaker 4: and inflation rears. That's ugly head again and stays and

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Speaker 4: gold will be a pretty good heatch.

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Speaker 3: Bob, I'm doing it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is the way we roll with boy,

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Speaker 2: Michael and jpmore. Good morning in your commute across the nation.

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Speaker 2: Good morning nine at two nine FM in Boston. I

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Speaker 2: did a lot of linear regression to the Bloomberg Corporate Total.

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Speaker 3: Return Index get a little more.

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Speaker 2: Yield, and I went back thirty years and it's stunning,

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Speaker 2: the recovery off the gloom of a couple of years

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Speaker 2: ago in price.

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Speaker 3: It's appening. You guys, nailed.

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Speaker 2: Do you envision in your head that with price and

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Speaker 2: you know, making the coupon, we will get back on

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Speaker 2: trend of a wonderful linear trend from about two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three straight up.

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Speaker 3: That will get price up, back on trend that we

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Speaker 3: knew before the tobacco.

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Speaker 4: It feels like it. It feels like where first of all,

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Speaker 4: in an interest rate environment that will have yield to it.

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Speaker 4: We're not going back to zero percent interest rates. I

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Speaker 4: don't know if the Fed brings rates down to three percent,

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Speaker 4: maybe three and a half, but somewhere in the threes

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Speaker 4: puts treasury close to four and puts credit close to

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Speaker 4: five percent, which is kind of where we are. That's

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Speaker 4: a pretty good level to be a holder of high

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Speaker 4: quality corporate.

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Speaker 2: There's job in Manhattan internship with Boub Michael and Jpmorking.

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Speaker 3: It's like, you know, you're working six days a week.

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Speaker 4: They love Does you.

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Speaker 3: Just throw a fobosi at them? Because none of these

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Speaker 3: kids remember like a normal yield market.

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Speaker 4: So we now call them analysts. We don't call them interns.

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Speaker 4: They's summer analysts. And and then they come. They come

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Speaker 4: prepared far more than I ever remember. They they come

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Speaker 4: with a level of knowledge of markets and how the

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Speaker 4: financial system works that probably took me five years to

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Speaker 4: get there.

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Speaker 2: The great Al Hunt used to lecture at your Pennsylvania

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Speaker 2: and Elle told me once, he said, Tom, you're in

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Speaker 2: them classroom. In every single person there, it's smarter than

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Speaker 2: El Hunt was thirty or thirty five.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know what, there's a lot of truth

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Speaker 4: to that. They just know.

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Speaker 6: It alysts exactly, not in ter make Eric.

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Speaker 3: They're called analysts now here, summer analysts. Noted, Thanks, okay, noted?

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Speaker 5: What is our feeder reserve thinking these days?

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Speaker 3: Bob?

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Speaker 5: I mean, they could probably just give themselves a nice

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Speaker 5: pat on the back and say, we've engineered a nice

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Speaker 5: soft landing.

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Speaker 6: We've weathered some of the uncertainty from tariffs.

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Speaker 5: Inflation seems okay, the economy okay, it's slowing, but it's

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Speaker 5: still there.

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Speaker 6: Did they do anything?

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Speaker 4: They're thinking, how fast can I get out of here

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Speaker 4: and go to the beach? I'll I promise I'll come

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Speaker 4: back after Labor Day. That gives me a couple of

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Speaker 4: weeks to look at the data, see how the US

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Speaker 4: economy survived this summer. Will have more clarity on the

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Speaker 4: one big beautiful bill. We'll have clarity on taris. Hopefully

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Speaker 4: we'll start to gauge the impact to the labor market

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Speaker 4: and two prices. Then we can make a decision whether

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Speaker 4: we can and should bring rates down in September or

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Speaker 4: whether we stay in track for December.

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Speaker 3: Let's go back to your outlook. What does the endsis?

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Speaker 2: I think of Jamie's great annual letter, which I really

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Speaker 2: advocate folks as a long read.

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Speaker 3: And there's four or five, sixteens.

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Speaker 2: What's a theme secondary within your mid year outlook?

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Speaker 3: It deserves note? Well.

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Speaker 4: I think within that is a view that we're heading

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Speaker 4: into an environment that's more normal that existed pre Great

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Speaker 4: Financial Crisis, when there is a demand for capital because

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Speaker 4: there's a productive use for capital, and there will be

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Speaker 4: a cost for that capital and it won't be zero.

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Speaker 4: Does that mean the FED funds rate belongs about where

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Speaker 4: that first dot was that the Fed put out in

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Speaker 4: twenty twelve, four and a quarter percent. Maybe could be

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Speaker 4: Get ready for that, Get ready for markets where you

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Speaker 4: could see a surge in inflation that Fed may have

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Speaker 4: to go to six percent and they may have to,

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Speaker 4: you know, apply a little stimulus and go down to

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Speaker 4: three percent. I think that's the market we're headed for,

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Speaker 4: and I think that's an exciting market.

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Speaker 5: Do we ever have to worry about deficits and national debt?

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Speaker 5: I'm looking at the negotiations going on down to Washington

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Speaker 5: right now. We're all seeing, you know, talking about two

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Speaker 5: three four trillion dollars of deaths coming out of this

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Speaker 5: budget plan. We ver have to worry about that. I mean,

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Speaker 5: you're the front lines of the fixed and income market set.

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Speaker 5: How do you think about that?

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Speaker 4: We should, and I think we all have a sense

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Speaker 4: of righteous indignation because every month we go home and

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Speaker 4: rebalance our checkbook and pay bills, and it seems like

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Speaker 4: our government doesn't have to. But the reality is we're

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Speaker 4: watching deficits go up globally. We're now seeing Europe starting

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Speaker 4: to borrow and spend, and it seems to be the

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Speaker 4: generally accepted principle that governments should be allowed to borrow

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Speaker 4: and spend. And you appoint central bankers which will help

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Speaker 4: underwrite that bottom money.

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Speaker 2: And spending generous time with you, Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: Mister Michael is with JP Morgan. Get their outlook from

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Speaker 2: the analysts at JP Morgan.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Kim Dawson joints Now from New Edge.

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Speaker 2: How does a weeker dollar fold into earnings reports of

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Speaker 2: our companies?

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Speaker 7: Well, it is a tailwin. A weeker dollar is typically

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Speaker 7: a tailwind for multinational US companies, but there's a catch there.

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Speaker 7: Usually a weaker dollar is associated with better performance of

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Speaker 7: non US stocks, So when we're thinking about building portfolios

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Speaker 7: and acid allocations, what we talk about is that you

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Speaker 7: have to see a weaker dollar to justify those non

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Speaker 7: US stock allocations, which have done rather well this year.

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Speaker 2: Is Apple computer hedged? Like, do they have a hedging

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Speaker 2: strategy and week dollar or has it been so long

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Speaker 2: since we did that nobody knows how to hedge anymore.

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Speaker 7: I'm sure that they have some hedging strategies somewhere, and

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Speaker 7: this can cause depending on where people have their manufacturing production,

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Speaker 7: it can cause headwinds. But what companies will typically do

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Speaker 7: is they will report organic growth, which excludes the impacts

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Speaker 7: of FX, So analysts have that great ability to look

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Speaker 7: through any kind of FX headwinds.

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Speaker 5: That move we saw into non US equities earlier this year,

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Speaker 5: principally into European equitcy have European indexes outperforming US s

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Speaker 5: and P five hundred?

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Speaker 6: Is that a short term traders? That's something longer?

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Speaker 4: Do you well?

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Speaker 7: The beginning of that trade was mostly a rerating, meaning

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Speaker 7: that you were trading at such a huge discount to

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Speaker 7: the US. You were going into the year US trading

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Speaker 7: at twenty two times, Europe trading closer to twelve times.

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Speaker 7: So some of the the easy part of that move

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Speaker 7: is over. But what's been really interesting is that we've

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Speaker 7: actually been seeing more earnings revisions higher for European companies,

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Speaker 7: which suggests that maybe there's a little bit of life there.

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Speaker 3: Fallster to ask a question.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be rude and buddy in, is the

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Speaker 2: bottom line of market going up because everybody's reframing earnings higher?

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Speaker 2: Is that really what's going on?

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Speaker 3: Cam?

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Speaker 7: One hundred percent? Yes, markets do not like when you

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Speaker 7: are cutting GDP and earning testaments. So if we think

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Speaker 7: about how markets have been sideways and choppy for really

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Speaker 7: the last nine months or so, that has been concomitant

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Speaker 7: with this decline in GDP and EPs, but both of

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Speaker 7: those have started to stabilize. The question is do they

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Speaker 7: go up much from here? And I'm not quite sure

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Speaker 7: about that.

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Speaker 5: I'm just looking at a note from Torston Sock from Apollo,

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Speaker 5: the lower dollar TOMP, more international travelers coming into the USA.

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Speaker 3: Yes, please, let's stop the show for a moment. Exactly

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Speaker 3: one eighty yeuro, how does a trip to Rome look?

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Speaker 1: Okay?

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Speaker 5: I booked my Italian trip maybe six months ago with

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Speaker 5: a much stronger dollar, so maybe I'm getting a little.

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Speaker 3: Bit of a top tick the Bulgari Martini forty two.

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Speaker 6: No, exactly right, So cam, what do we do here?

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Speaker 3: With earnings coming up?

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Speaker 6: We're gonna have earnings starting in a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 6: It's we just flipped the calendar to July, which makes

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Speaker 6: you think about earnings. What do you think we're going

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Speaker 6: to see in this earning cycle?

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Speaker 7: I think that investors are conditioned to expect beats and

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Speaker 7: optimism because we went into the first quarter expecting seven

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Speaker 7: percent growth and we got twelve this quarter. The street

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Speaker 7: is expecting four percent growth, So there's an excess.

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Speaker 3: The numbers of four pers I didn't know.

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Speaker 7: That the numbers four percent. No, there is a tougher

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Speaker 7: comp which just means that the second quarter growth from

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty four was higher than what we had in

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Speaker 7: the first quarter.

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Speaker 3: You're here, bred Shoot, he's coming Onry Renault's coming on? This?

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Speaker 3: Is it a melt up?

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Speaker 2: Is that where we're in? Even if it's a grind

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Speaker 2: higher a little bit every day.

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Speaker 7: It's hard to frame a upward move in the market

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Speaker 7: as a risk, but we would typically say a melt

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Speaker 7: up is a risk because typically what comes after melt

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Speaker 7: ups is melt downs. But we would know that you

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Speaker 7: still have positioning that is underweight or light this market,

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Speaker 7: which suggests that people still have to chase in. So

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Speaker 7: if you have beats in in the earning season in

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Speaker 7: the second quarter, we think that that suggests that we

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Speaker 7: pressed if continued highs.

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Speaker 2: Retails all in, what are institutions doing? Are they playing

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Speaker 2: catch up with Wait?

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Speaker 3: Did they window dress yesterday? Talk about you're too young,

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Speaker 3: can't even remember window dressing?

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Speaker 2: Did they window dress yesterday?

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Speaker 7: I'd like to window dress on Fifth Avenue?

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Speaker 3: But yes, I do see you outside product.

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Speaker 7: I do think that that is one of the dynamics

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Speaker 7: that is happening, is that institutions have largely set on

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Speaker 7: the sidelines of this rally, and so they're having to

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Speaker 7: chase markets in order to get fully invested. Retail very different.

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Speaker 7: They are all back in. If you look at something

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Speaker 7: like the Finram margin loan balances.

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Speaker 6: Oh, you're a margin loan balance a really.

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Speaker 7: Great way to capture how much leverage? Thank you? If

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Speaker 7: you're gonna hear them. He'd call me a nerd that

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Speaker 7: it's a great way to capture how how optimistic individual

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Speaker 7: investors are anymore.

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Speaker 6: What are you doing in the bond market here? Yields

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Speaker 6: are coming down here, I got my two years at

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Speaker 6: three there, six nine.

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Speaker 2: The dollar weakness, there's a dampening in gold of fifty

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Speaker 2: dollars fifty three dollars.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, amazing.

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Speaker 6: So what do we do in the bond market here?

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Speaker 7: We do think that we're in this range of yields

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Speaker 7: between four eight and effectively four percent, which means when

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Speaker 7: you're at the bottom and the range, which we think

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Speaker 7: we're getting close to, that's the time to be patient

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Speaker 7: in adding to bond portfolios. Whereas when you're at the

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Speaker 7: top end of the range, that's when we'd like to

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Speaker 7: be more inquisitive.

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Speaker 3: Cap DA, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen each weekday starting

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Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

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Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say

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Speaker 1: Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Church Cankabus joints.

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Speaker 2: It's right now ahead of US macro strategy m ufj okay,

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Speaker 2: it's not a distraction. It's like bigger than the equity market.

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Speaker 2: We got all these distractions. Here's the bottom line. Yields

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Speaker 2: come in.

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Speaker 3: Paul mentioned the tenure yield under four point two zero percent.

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Speaker 3: I have a real yield in range now, but right

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Speaker 3: at the bottom with a one point eight nine.

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Speaker 2: Ten handle on a ten year really yield. I got

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Speaker 2: gold up. I got curve flattening. Is that the direction here?

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Speaker 2: Sort of a disinflationary price up, yield down, malaise in

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Speaker 2: the bottom market.

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Speaker 8: I think it's a number of things going on, right,

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Speaker 8: and good to be back with you guys, and good

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Speaker 8: morning everyone.

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Speaker 3: So the back end of.

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Speaker 8: The of the curve was under a lot of pressure

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Speaker 8: around supply concerns about around the fiscal outlook, which I

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Speaker 8: think are still valid concerns.

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Speaker 3: But we had last week some news.

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Speaker 8: On the bank regulation around the SLR, and there's you know,

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Speaker 8: there's hope that there's going to be a marginal buyer

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Speaker 8: of treasury is now going forward coming from the banking community.

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Speaker 3: So that's that's that.

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Speaker 8: So I think it's not just fundamental I think there's

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Speaker 8: a supply demand kind of shift taking place that there's

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Speaker 8: going to be more buyers of treasure so rs.

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Speaker 3: Single lens reflex.

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Speaker 5: Okay, ratio, how's how's our fed Thinking about the economy

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Speaker 5: these days?

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Speaker 6: How do you think?

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Speaker 5: I mean, you could argue, okay, the economy is slowing,

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Speaker 5: but nobody talks about recession anymore. Inflation, we haven't really

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Speaker 5: seen it spiked with the tariffs. Maybe that's going to

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Speaker 5: come in the future. I don't know, but we haven't

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Speaker 5: really seen it.

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Speaker 6: Seems like it's pretty darn good right now.

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Speaker 8: I mean, good's probably a little bit stronger words than

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Speaker 8: I would use.

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 8: I think we're mixed, and I think that's so in

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Speaker 8: confusion across all policymakers. And you know, if you start

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Speaker 8: from like the DC perspective, they're viewing like rates are

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Speaker 8: a constraint for the economy, constraint for the government. Rates

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Speaker 8: are too high. We're hearing that obviously at an ausium. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 8: if you you know there's a bifurcation of the economy,

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Speaker 8: there's been you know, they haven't have nots, which we've

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Speaker 8: all talked about in many different ways, and you know,

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Speaker 8: and the consumers now is starting to act tapped out.

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Speaker 8: What we got in Q one GDP in terms of

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Speaker 8: personal consumption, what we got in the May spending numbers

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Speaker 8: last Friday. It really shows the consumers decelerating. So I

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Speaker 8: think that we're at this kind of cusp where the

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Speaker 8: Fed doesn't make a move soon that we could slow

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Speaker 8: down further.

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Speaker 5: What's say ten percent decline in the US dollar tell you?

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Speaker 5: I mean we've been asking, I've been asking FX professionals

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Speaker 5: for years, is there ever a barecase for the US dollar?

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Speaker 5: And now I'm saying this year it's kind of been

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Speaker 5: really underperforming.

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Speaker 8: Oh totally well, I mean the combination of the destructive

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Speaker 8: sort of tactics tactics out of DC. But again this

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Speaker 8: Ford expectation of lower rates. I mean, the whole ring

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Speaker 8: curve has come down, right, So that's number one ye,

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Speaker 8: and the Fed has not even delivered on cuts. So

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Speaker 8: imagine when the Fed does deliver on cuts. So the market,

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Speaker 8: the dollar actually, I think is the best forward indicator

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Speaker 8: now it's really picking up on that.

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Speaker 2: But in the micro of the what Chicago would call

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Speaker 2: the price theory of Paul's good question, the ambiguity is

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Speaker 2: right now, it's price up, yield down. What are the

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Speaker 2: actions that will break that the other way? OMG week

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Speaker 2: dollar price down, yield up.

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Speaker 8: I think that really comes down to that. That's why

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Speaker 8: I started my answer with the supply demand equation. I mean,

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Speaker 8: if the if US bomb market is becoming more domestic

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Speaker 8: over time, US banking system becomes a bigger buyer of

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Speaker 8: treasures over time, you know this this there's a limit

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Speaker 8: to how high rates can go.

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Speaker 5: What are we thinking here about the treasury market here?

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Speaker 5: I mean with a ten year at you know, against

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00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 5: Tom nineteen, it's been trucking.

445
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean slowly, but surely. What do you think

446
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 6: this we end the year with the ten year.

447
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 8: I have the ten year around four percent at the

448
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 8: end of the year. So we're a little bithead of

449
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:57,239
Speaker 8: schedule in my book. And I'm also pretty dubbish. I mean,

450
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 8: I have theft cutting a lot more than what the

451
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 8: market hasn't versus most of my peers, right, you know?

452
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 8: To me, the sweet spot is three percent percent on

453
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 8: overall rates for feed funds. Yep, Okay, the FED gets

454
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 8: raised down to three percent, they don't have to go

455
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 8: further than that. The curve stays steep and the tenure

456
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,239
Speaker 8: probably stalls out around four percent. So if we can

457
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 8: get short term rates down to three, the two year

458
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 8: notes somewhere around three point twenty five, and the ten

459
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 8: yere at four and bank deregulation, the banks can make

460
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 8: money on this trade.

461
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 2: You're with MUFG venerable Japanese firm, simple as I can.

462
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 2: I'm seeing all sorts of new handles in dollar. I've

463
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 2: got a one yen. What does your shop say about

464
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 2: yen appreciation? How do they envision that from one two?

465
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 8: I mean I think we think their scope of going

466
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 8: under one forty sure. I mean, like the Bank of

467
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 8: Japan is still committed to trying to normalize rates there

468
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 8: and they're going against the grain versus all the other

469
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 8: central banks, right, so we'll see how far they can

470
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 8: actually raise rates. That's a whole other side topic. But

471
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 8: the FED is more inclined to cut rates than Japan

472
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 8: has to raise. It's really a dollar story more so than.

473
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: It's more a dollar story than a yen or red

474
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 2: men be more eurostory asking for someone going to Rome,

475
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 2: that's right.

476
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot of there's a

477
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 8: lot of expectations that Europe is finally getting it to

478
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 8: aact together, turning things around. Germany's loosening up the purse strings.

479
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 3: You know that this is new.

480
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 8: I mean, Europe doesn't have a kind of killer app

481
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 8: like we do in terms of AI or technological innovation.

482
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 8: But they're willing not to start to spend, especially on military,

483
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 8: so they're gonna get a growth boost and that's gonna

484
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 8: be a your story.

485
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 2: The killer app in America is the Costco app. Lisa

486
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 2: uses it. George can call us thank you so much

487
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 2: with MUFG night.

488
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

489
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

490
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

491
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

492
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 3: This is a joy in an honor.

493
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: First heard Michael Lasser years ago at Lehman and then

494
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: Sterling work at Barclays and now at Ubs Equity Research.

495
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: But that doesn't describe as excellence in big box. This

496
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 2: is the conversation of the day for those of you

497
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: that go Walmart's to thirty eight times earnings. Michael Lasser,

498
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: Welcome to the show. Can you explain a pe multiple

499
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 2: of thirty eight. If they're doing single digit revenue growth

500
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: and I mean mid single digit to be kind, and

501
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 2: they're popping three cents on the bottom line, how does

502
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 2: Walmart garner a thirty eight multiple?

503
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 9: Well, good morning, and thank you so much for having me.

504
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 9: It is a phenomenal question and one that is heavily

505
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 9: debated in the market. The investment case right now on

506
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 9: Walmart is that it's really transforming its business, and so

507
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 9: the valuation reflects what's possible with Walmart over the next

508
00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 9: few years. Three things to keep in mind. Number one,

509
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 9: Walmart accounts for about twenty percent two zero of the

510
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 9: United States grocery market, so one out of every five

511
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 9: grocery sales take place at Walmart. It provides a very predictable,

512
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 9: consistent stream of revenue, as well as a lot of

513
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 9: customers more than one hundred million visits per week. Number two,

514
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 9: it is deploying automation like robots and conveyor belts, such

515
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 9: that Walmart right now employees about two million workers globally

516
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 9: one point four million workers in the United States. It

517
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 9: believes it can grow its top line four percent or

518
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 9: better in perpetuity without having to add a net additional

519
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 9: worker moving forward. And then finally, it is using all

520
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 9: the traffic and other advantages of its model to now

521
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 9: monetize those elements of its model in ways that it

522
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 9: had not done before. Things like advertising, third party market

523
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 9: place fees, membership income. Those are all really high margin

524
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 9: and juicing its profitability. So your point is a good

525
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 9: one that it's it's a business, it's been around for

526
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 9: a long time. It is large and scale, growing at

527
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 9: a moderate pace, but it is transforming in a way

528
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 9: that it's growth, especially on a bottom line, should accelerate,

529
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 9: and that's why it's trading at the multiple that it is.

530
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 5: Ball shops are daily patly, Michael, talk to us about

531
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 5: the fulfillment business for them? What is that and how

532
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 5: is that going to be a driver for them?

533
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 9: Yeah, thank you so much for that question. The fulfillment

534
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 9: business is literally taking the product from pointing to point

535
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 9: point B, whether Walmart is doing it for itself by

536
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 9: fulfilling online orders for someone who is shopping through its

537
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 9: first party business or filling orders for third party marketplace sellers,

538
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 9: much like other online only retailers or predominantly online retailers do.

539
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 9: So it had been a little slower getting into this game,

540
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 9: but it is rapidly increasing in scale, scope and capability,

541
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 9: which makes it a much more valuable counterparty for all

542
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 9: these third party sellers. And that's in a nutshell, what

543
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 9: the third party party business?

544
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: The heart of the matter. As I got single, did

545
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: you pop? You mentioned they'd like to get the five

546
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 2: percent sales top line?

547
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 3: Fine? The trade like a mag seven stock? Are they

548
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 3: the mag eight?

549
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 9: You know without a doubt that this is a name

550
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 9: that you should own. We think about we've coined a

551
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 9: new moniker within retail uh that we affectionately referred to

552
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 9: as the cow retailers, Costco, O'Reilly and Walmart. These are

553
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 9: three dominant players within unique niches of retail that have

554
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 9: you know, that are best in class operators with unique

555
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 9: network effect X that we think can compound and drive

556
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 9: returns for shareholders for the foreseeable future. And you know,

557
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 9: so we would advocate that Walmart is a must owe

558
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 9: within the retail sector for sure.

559
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 5: Michael, What are Walmart and the other retailers you cover

560
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 5: telling you about the consumer these days?

561
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 9: What we're hearing about the state of the consumer is

562
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 9: that by and large, trends are steady. The consumers being

563
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 9: choiceful shopping around events like holidays. One can imagine this

564
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 9: week that trends will be pretty good as consumers want

565
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 9: to get out and celebrate the Fourth of July. But

566
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 9: in between these periods of events or or sales, the

567
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 9: consumers retrenching a bit.

568
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: What will be important from here, and.

569
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 9: I'm sure where your interest is what happens as the

570
00:29:55,000 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 9: consumer sees more price increases in reaction to all the tariffs.

571
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 9: And that's gonna be more evident as we move into

572
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 9: the second half of the year that the a lot

573
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 9: of the terror related merchandise tends to be more seasonal

574
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 9: in nature, things like Halloween costumes or toys or or decorations.

575
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 9: So right now, it's it's a bit too soon to

576
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 9: tell how the consumer is gonna react.

577
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 2: To Michael, the owners who ad you on, Lisa demanded

578
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: you come on. Is a value proposition. Costco's twice as

579
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 2: profitable as Walmart, but it's pe is pushing sixty. Do

580
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 2: you want to buy a marginal share a Costco or

581
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 2: Walmart this morning?

582
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 9: If we had to rank those, just just those three players,

583
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 9: we put Walmart, O'Reilly Costco in that order. Your your

584
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 9: point is is a fair one that there's a lot

585
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 9: of good news priced into Costco, but this you should

586
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 9: not discount in any way. It's it's a really remarkable

587
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 9: business that's operated so well.

588
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: Michael got to get you in the studio. Michael Lester

589
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: ubs there in big box.

590
00:30:59,320 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: That was cool.

591
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

592
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cockplay and Android

593
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

594
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

595
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty With.

596
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: Our newspapers, Lisa Mateo.

597
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 10: Okay, I want to start with this story in the

598
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 10: Athletic because they're reporting that Major League Baseball ESPN are

599
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 10: talking again. If you remember, yeah, they ended their broadcast

600
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 10: rights deal after the twenty twenty five season. That's what

601
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 10: they said, and it was early. They were supposed to

602
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 10: end in twenty twenty eight. ESPN felt they were paying

603
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 10: too much. They're paying about five hundred and fifty million dollars.

604
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 10: So if something is not rached, agreement is not reached

605
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 10: by October, then they can kind of look elsewhere for

606
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 10: different places but they have a couple front runners. You

607
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 10: have NBC, Apple, Fox two. They already have broadcasting rights

608
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 10: with Apple and Roku.

609
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 6: For some games.

610
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 10: But the pressure is on when you have the All

611
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 10: Star you know break in a few weeks, so you

612
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 10: had those gamesming up.

613
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 6: So it's major League Baseball.

614
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 5: You need ESPN. Yes, you just need the whole ESPN

615
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 5: juggernaut behind you. I think even though it's a regional sport,

616
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 5: you still need the ESPN.

617
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 10: Right, And that's the problem, like you know, those local

618
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 10: rights situations, like that's their biggest issue.

619
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 5: Well, the regional sports networks which were the lifeblood for

620
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 5: most baseball franchises, that model's gone south big times. You

621
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 5: can no longer depend upon that revenue. So again, if

622
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 5: you're Major League Baseball and these teams, you need ESPN.

623
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 3: There's too many games.

624
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: It's just in the modern day, that's the single distinction

625
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: of baseball.

626
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 10: Yeah, Okay, they're a little long too. Okay, we're gonna

627
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 10: stick with baseball because tonight the Washington Nationals will debut

628
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 10: their first Jersey patch sponsor. They're taking on the Detroit Tigers.

629
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 10: And who's the the sponsor is a a r P.

630
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 6: There you go, yes, okay, I was going a r

631
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 6: P first, a ARP magazine is.

632
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 10: I got the membership park I do.

633
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: I'm telling you, if you do a RP and costco,

634
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 2: they give you stuff.

635
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 10: There's no discount for AAR members there I checked. But

636
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 10: what if you are an AARP member, you know what

637
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 10: you can get. You can get.

638
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 6: Special perks at the park.

639
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 10: Yes, you can get early ballpark access, you can get

640
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 10: reserve parking seat upgrades. There might have even an AARP

641
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 10: night held this season something.

642
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 2: I have nothing with AARP in my literally, I just

643
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 2: don't qualify.

644
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 6: I'm too young, of course, all right, but it's a.

645
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 10: Big deal because they were like one of the holdouts,

646
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 10: like they didn't have that that Jersey sponsor. So so

647
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 10: that's whyspapers please the president's speaking.

648
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 2: We're going to bring you much of that as we can.

649
00:33:55,840 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: This came out as a headline Trump passed about deporting musk.

650
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 7: Oh boy says, we'll have to take a look.

651
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 3: Okay, we'll move on nice.

652
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 10: I think that might become a newspaper second pretty soon.

653
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 6: Okay.

654
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 10: The last one, Starbucks has some big competition in New York.

655
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 10: It opened yesterday. It is China based coffee chain Lucking Coffee.

656
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 10: They opened their first location. It's sixth Avenue and it

657
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 10: was packed. People were there getting the coffee. You know

658
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 10: why it's a dollar ninety nine. Yes, it's a cheaper

659
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 10: cup of coffee. They say it's good. They did this heavy,

660
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 10: you know, Instagram promotion. But the big thing is that

661
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 10: it surpassed Starbucks in China, you know, for for for

662
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 10: being the biggest coffee retailer. So it's a it's a

663
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 10: big thing. Feeling the pressure, yes, yes, yes, And they're

664
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 10: looking to expand and they picked New York City as

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00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 10: a first location.

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00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 5: And why not.

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00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 10: We're like Coffee Central. Sure, we love our coffee here

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Speaker 10: in New York City, all right.

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Speaker 6: But price matters, Price matters, and dollar ninety.

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00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 5: Nine focus ye thing or something.

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Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo, it's the newspapers. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

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00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

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00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

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00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

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00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal