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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz. The

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Speaker 1: crew is back on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton

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Speaker 1: and the Prime Minister Stucky. On today's episode, We've got

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Speaker 1: our plant the Flag game for week ten, a breakdown

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Speaker 1: of the top storylines, and of course the main event

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Speaker 1: evans Tuesday primer. You can't start a betting week without it.

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Speaker 1: Kendra on the Sunday Night episode, I reference the speed

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Speaker 1: in which this country turns the page from Halloween to Christmas.

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Speaker 1: It's quite admirable when you think about the expeditiousness that

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Speaker 1: we as a society act like. You can't find a

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Speaker 1: fucking pumpkin anywhere and Halloween's been over for a day.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it's admirable or obnoxious how quickly we

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Speaker 1: switch gears from one holiday to the next.

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Speaker 2: It's obnoxious.

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Speaker 3: I'm a Thanksgiving truther, as I'm sure most of the

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Speaker 3: people in this podcast are, because we're food in football people.

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Speaker 3: I hate Christmas. It's the worst holiday in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: I know that that's a hot take. Christmas is dumb.

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Speaker 3: Let us have let us Thanksgiving people have a second

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Speaker 3: Put your decorations up the day after Thanksgiving and you

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Speaker 3: can keep them up until fucking Valentine's Day if you want,

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Speaker 3: but leave us alone. Let me have my football, Let

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Speaker 3: me enjoy fall for five more minutes until I, as

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Speaker 3: someone who lives in Boston, wait for the impending doom

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Speaker 3: of darkness and cold.

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Speaker 2: Let me push it off for half an hour.

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Speaker 3: Go away, go away, shut up, shut up, shut up,

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Speaker 3: go away, go away.

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Speaker 1: Christmas is really two separate holidays in the country, in

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Speaker 1: the world. There's the religious one and then there's the

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Speaker 1: commercial one.

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Speaker 3: And.

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Speaker 2: I hate them both.

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Speaker 4: I'm not a very religious person, but the commercial one

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Speaker 4: I'm here for. I love it. I'm happy.

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Speaker 2: I'm so bad at buying gifts.

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Speaker 3: If I ever have to buy any of you a gift,

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Speaker 3: just gonna overnight you a live lobster.

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Speaker 2: And I'm not joking.

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Speaker 3: I send someone in my family a live lobster every

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Speaker 3: single year. Nobody knows who's gonna get it. Somebody gets lobstered.

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Speaker 3: It's what If I ever have to send you guys

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Speaker 3: a gift, just know what's going.

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Speaker 2: To be that I'm the worst gift to give for.

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Speaker 3: It's too much pressure, and I like, I love people,

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Speaker 3: but that is not my thing.

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Speaker 2: I can't.

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Speaker 1: No, no, send Stucky some crab cakes for me instead,

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Speaker 1: because I still send.

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Speaker 5: I gotta send you my address.

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Speaker 3: Well I want my I want my head to head again,

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Speaker 3: Stucky the other day.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, we didn't bet anything.

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Speaker 4: Wasted opportunity, guys, the Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I really don't care about the holidays. I love Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 5: love Christmas, but like my he, I don't have time

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Speaker 5: to worry my holidays as soon.

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Speaker 1: As you don't put anything up for any of these. No,

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Speaker 1: we have between your college basketball and college football bets.

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Speaker 5: We have people that put up stuff. But like, like

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Speaker 5: you know, I told you that there's people that come

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Speaker 5: over and do my in law's house like it's like

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Speaker 5: a people drive to see it. They were out there

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Speaker 5: the other day said putting up the Christmas lights and

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Speaker 5: all the like, telling you it takes like three days

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Speaker 5: they come over and put stuff up in our house.

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Speaker 5: But like it's otherwise to her, My mother in law

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Speaker 5: would be like ridiculously upset if we didn't decorate. So

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Speaker 5: they she basically gets people to decorate for us. But no,

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Speaker 5: once Thanksgiving changes, I mean once after Halloween. It's my holidays.

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Speaker 5: College basketball, Like, I'm trying to keep my head on

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Speaker 5: straight every day, transitioning from one hour's NFL, the next

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Speaker 5: hour's college football, the next hour's college basketball. Repeat. They

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Speaker 5: repeat that six seven times a day, every day. Try

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Speaker 5: to find an hour nap and keep going.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's a Christmas scarf, that's it. Those are my decorations.

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Speaker 1: I did have in my secret notes over here that

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Speaker 1: I wanted a mental health check on Stucky because my god,

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Speaker 1: this time of year for you, college football, college basketball

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Speaker 1: just started. I was watching Arizona in Florida last night.

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Speaker 1: But you're putting out content for all of this on

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Speaker 1: top of what we do in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: So this is just a you good?

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Speaker 5: Are you doing this for forever? It's labor of love.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, the hardest part is college basketball is so

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Speaker 5: much harder now. Markets obviously get a little morefficient over time,

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Speaker 5: but just the same thing happens in college football. Like

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Speaker 5: the prep for these sports used to be so much easier,

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Speaker 5: but now with the roster turnovers and the transfer portal.

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Speaker 2: The NIL ruined everything.

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Speaker 5: More teams keeping track and like adjusting these teams and

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Speaker 5: then keeping track of injuries on top of that, Like

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Speaker 5: just keeping track of the NFL injuries is hard enough.

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Speaker 5: Now doing that for college basketball and college football. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: there's not a second that goes by in the day

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Speaker 5: where that's not all I'm thinking of in November and December.

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Speaker 5: Literally not a second. So yeah, but I love it.

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Speaker 5: It's just like the ultimate grind, and I just fully

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Speaker 5: immersed myself in it. So anyway, last night we hit

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Speaker 5: our we hit our parlay again, back to back days,

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Speaker 5: Cardinals get started nuts McBride. I'm glad we can ensure McBride.

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Speaker 4: I love it.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, the first comment we get on

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Speaker 1: Twitter is some clown going, I never tell you guys. Okay,

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Speaker 1: well that has not been a profitable opinion. Over the

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Speaker 1: last two days, we are six and oher on our

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Speaker 1: biggest bets that we've given out on this podcast.

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Speaker 4: So I had a.

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Speaker 3: Perfect weekend this weekend. Everybody can suck mead Ry.

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Speaker 5: No time for gloating. It's stay humble, keep grinding. But

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Speaker 5: McBride twenty one games with Kyler Murray two touchdowns, last

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Speaker 5: three games without them four touchdowns. He obviously benefits from Brissette.

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Speaker 5: The entire offense looks much better. Uh, I don't think

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Speaker 5: we're gonna hot take. I don't think we see Calamary

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Speaker 5: again this year unless Prissette gets hurt. And I was

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Speaker 5: screaming from the mountaintops. The Cardinals are not bad. The

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Speaker 5: Cardinals are a better team than the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say.

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Speaker 3: Are the Cardinals better than the public thought?

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Speaker 2: Or are the Cowboys more asked than everybody thought? That

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Speaker 2: was my big question.

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Speaker 5: Both.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I would go both on that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, like everyone is like, oh, the Cowboys

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Speaker 5: are so scary at home, Like they didn't they they

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Speaker 5: they should have lost to Russell Wilson at home. You know,

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Speaker 5: they beat the Shell Commanders team. That's it. They blew

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Speaker 5: them out. That's like this. This defense is among the

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Speaker 5: worst in the league. And the Cardinals defense, now that

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Speaker 5: it's healthy, you got they were playing. It's one of

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Speaker 5: the most the most well schemed defenses in the league

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Speaker 5: with their three three high safety looks. Now you add

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Speaker 5: and they had a bunch of injuries, but now that

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Speaker 5: they have will Johnson looks incredible as a corner you know,

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Speaker 5: Meltman William back at cornerback. Walter Nolan made his NFL

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Speaker 5: debut the first round draft pick, well, I thought was

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Speaker 5: kind of a steal. I thought he should have won

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Speaker 5: the top ten. He looked great. You add him to

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Speaker 5: that front, and then on top of that, with Persett

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Speaker 5: in the mix, the entire offense looks so much better.

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Speaker 5: There's actually a passing element, and Harrison looks so much better.

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Speaker 5: McBride is more involved. So this is a team that

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Speaker 5: I think is still undervalued. I mean that they lost

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Speaker 5: five games in a row by four points or less,

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Speaker 5: and they easily could have been five and two instead

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Speaker 5: of two and five. And yeah, it's a team that

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Speaker 5: I'll be looking to continue to back, especially if it's

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Speaker 5: per Set that remains in there, which I think he will.

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Speaker 1: And we have that opportunity stucky, because the Cardinals are

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half against the Seattle Seahawks over

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Speaker 1: on DraftKings as it stands right now, Yeah, are we

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Speaker 1: gonna want are we going to take a bite of

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Speaker 1: that apple?

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Speaker 3: Or you need to talk about we need to talk

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Speaker 3: about something before we talk about that, because I think

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Speaker 3: we need to start predicting who are going to be

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Speaker 3: buyers and sellers today because and people might be listening

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Speaker 3: to that after But I think that this Cardinals team

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Speaker 3: could probably be a seller.

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Speaker 2: Think about how many teams right now.

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Speaker 3: Are desperate for a tight end, Like tight ends have

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Speaker 3: become just such a luxury in this league, which I

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Speaker 3: never thought that I would say when I was a kid,

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Speaker 3: And now here we are. There are some of the

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Speaker 3: you know, most prominent pass catchers and a lot of

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Speaker 3: these offenses they do everything. They're underpaid, they're underappreciated. I

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Speaker 3: think the Cardinals might be sellers. We need to think

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Speaker 3: about that while we're previewing some of these games today,

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Speaker 3: because I see that we're going to talk about Thursday

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Speaker 3: Night football too. I think the Raiders are going to

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Speaker 3: be sellers. So before we get here, like, do you

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Speaker 3: guys think that the Cardinals are gonna be sellers, especially

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Speaker 3: with this Jacoby Brissett Kyler Murray situation.

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Speaker 2: I'm in the camp of yes, No.

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Speaker 5: I think I do not think so. I think that

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Speaker 5: came out yesterday and said they're not going.

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Speaker 4: To they're only two games back on a wild card spot.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they're there, especially they won yesterday. The only person

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Speaker 5: they're gonna I did my trade is Kyler Murray, and

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Speaker 5: I think they're better with Berssette I do too.

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Speaker 2: Who's the third string?

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Speaker 5: Oh, it's probably like, uh, who's the he's dreadful.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking it up.

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Speaker 3: Uh, it is Cadence Lovas. So they can't trade.

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Speaker 5: They're done anyway. It depends on what they get.

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Speaker 1: You can always imagine saying that at the start of

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Speaker 1: the season, if Brissett goes down, the Cardinals are done.

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Speaker 4: I would have loved to crystal balls.

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Speaker 2: Cardinals are already done.

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Speaker 5: I don't think so. I think they're gonna try to

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Speaker 5: make a run. I mean it's a team that could

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Speaker 5: play with anyone. They went to Indianapolis and was were

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Speaker 5: right there to win. They almost beat Green Bay, they

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Speaker 5: should have beat the forty nine ers. They just went

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Speaker 5: into Dallas and destroyed them from I mean destroy them

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Speaker 5: start to finish. I think they can make a run

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Speaker 5: at the wild Card. So I don't think that they're

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Speaker 5: going to sell other than Kyler Murray. And I think

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Speaker 5: the other thing is with this week's matchup against Seattle,

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Speaker 5: which is a huge game for them, and they have

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Speaker 5: they have some winnable game, like you want to see,

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Speaker 5: can they get the nine wins like they have the

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Speaker 5: Jags at home, the Niners at home, after this, uh, Texans, Falcons,

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Speaker 5: Bengals still on their schedule, so there's some winnable games

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Speaker 5: now if you look back historically, the Seahawks, while I'm

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Speaker 5: one hundred percent, I was so mad last right after

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Speaker 5: that game ended last night that people came in and

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Speaker 5: bought the Cardinals plus seven and I had a notification

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Speaker 5: up and I got it and I couldn't get to

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Speaker 5: the Cardinals in time. I'm hopefully we see a seven

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Speaker 5: again this week and then I'll be interested. The Seahawks

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Speaker 5: have so because I think still think Arizona's defense is

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Speaker 5: extremely underrated. Uh and I mean going into Dallas and

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Speaker 5: shutting down that offense. I mean, dak that off was

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Speaker 5: had zero points to the fourth quarter. That's impressive. And

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Speaker 5: now that their corners back, they have no one like

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Speaker 5: I mentioned, and then I think the offense is still

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Speaker 5: undervalued because of the percent and just the perception of

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Speaker 5: this team as well from who they actually are. But

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Speaker 5: they've really struggled with Seattle in the past, and most

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Speaker 5: of that has been because I mean, because you look

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Speaker 5: back at that game in Arizona earlier this year, they

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Speaker 5: were they did as good of a job on anyone

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Speaker 5: against Seattle's offense who's been I mean, Sam Darnold has

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Speaker 5: been the best quarterback in the league statistically. The game

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Speaker 5: was twenty to twenty at the end, and then they

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Speaker 5: botched the kickoff Seahawks get a field goal. The biggest

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Speaker 5: problem that Arizona has had against the Seahawks is Kyler.

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Speaker 5: Murray has been horrendous the last two years. In particular,

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Speaker 5: McDonald has his number. They get so much pressure on

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Speaker 5: him and he can't do it. Per set has been

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Speaker 5: so much better under pressure. Their plaction rates have gone up.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I think that this is probably the highest

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Speaker 5: we're going to be on Seattle. Like, I think that

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Speaker 5: they could be a top five team like I have them,

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Speaker 5: That's where I have them now. But I think this

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Speaker 5: is a perfect like Bylos Still Bilo on the Cardinals

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Speaker 5: and so on.

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Speaker 2: I think they're the best team in the NFC. I

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Speaker 2: really do.

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Speaker 4: You can make that case right now the way they're

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Speaker 4: playing on both sides.

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Speaker 1: By the way Kyler two and nine straight up three

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Speaker 1: and eight ats in his career against the Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 4: So yeah.

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Speaker 5: Morely, his numbers are awful, like, uh, horrendous.

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Speaker 1: Well, I want to stay on this trade deadline topic

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Speaker 1: that's at four o'clock today Tuesday. If you're listening to this,

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Speaker 1: it's part of our top three storylines heading into Week ten,

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Speaker 1: one of which I want to talk about Jayden Daniels

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Speaker 1: and his injury and some of these teams at the

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Speaker 1: top of anybody's power rankings taking ls.

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Speaker 4: But let's play a quick.

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Speaker 1: Game of nominate one team that you desperately want to

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Speaker 1: see make a move today in either direction, either sellers buyers. Kendra,

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Speaker 1: is there a team for you that you want to

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Speaker 1: see make a move today in either direction?

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Speaker 3: Obviously I want the Jaguars to go for Quinn Williams

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Speaker 3: and Jacoby Meyers, but outside of them, I.

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Speaker 2: Think I'd like to see the Colts be buyers. Even

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Speaker 2: though we're in the same division.

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Speaker 3: I've come to grips with the fact that this is

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Speaker 3: just not a Jags season. And I know that I'm

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Speaker 3: supposed to hate everybody in the division and she're it

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Speaker 3: against them whatever, But they're just such a fun team.

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Speaker 3: They're so easy to root for. A lot of good

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Speaker 3: like storyline lines on the team. I'm just kind of like,

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Speaker 3: for one season, f it whatever, let the Colts be good.

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Speaker 3: If I have to go outside of the division. You

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Speaker 3: guys know, I'm gonna say the P words. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go with the Panthers and the Patriots. I want to party.

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Speaker 3: I want the Patriots to be good as much as

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Speaker 3: I hate them and they ruined my life in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 3: I'm making more money when the Patriots are good. I'm

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Speaker 3: partying more when the Patriots are good. The city's a

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Speaker 3: lot more fun.

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Speaker 2: Whatever.

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Speaker 3: Go Patriots, Go, Panthers, Jags, Go get Quinn Williams and

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Speaker 3: Jacoby Myers and I'll have a good day. I'll go

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Speaker 3: buy a lottery ticket. I'm going to a nice dinner tonight.

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Speaker 3: I'll wear some high heels. I'll make it sexy for you.

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Speaker 4: Do it.

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Speaker 2: For the love of God, please go get Quinn Williams.

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Speaker 1: All reasons to be in the camp of Kendri Middleton today.

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Speaker 4: Stucky, what about you?

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Speaker 5: I mean my Ravens Like so, they traded Jai Year,

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Speaker 5: Free Upsimore cap Room the one. Now they're fully healthy

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Speaker 5: on offense, arguably the best offense in the league now,

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Speaker 5: and especially as Lamar gets healthier and healthier. The defense

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Speaker 5: still top three. Secondary. You got Roquebon back healthy, the

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Speaker 5: biggest glaring weakness on the team by a million miles

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Speaker 5: is the defensive line because of the injuries and because

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Speaker 5: of the loss of Matabuke. So I want to see

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Speaker 5: edc to cost to go out and get I mean

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Speaker 5: the dream would be like the dream even I mean

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Speaker 5: that a realistic dream. I don't know if they would

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Speaker 5: sell him, but Dexter Lawrence if they made a big

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Speaker 5: splash trade for Dexter Lawrence.

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Speaker 3: You're not worried about the production that he's had this

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Speaker 3: year though, because a lot of people on like you know,

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Speaker 3: the big mainstream stuff have been bitching at him.

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Speaker 2: But I love sexy DEXI.

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Speaker 5: Oh, he's still one of the best in the league.

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Speaker 5: And then you get him into a like a winning

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Speaker 5: culture and a win a winning team, I think you'll

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Speaker 5: you'll get a.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Giants will let him go.

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Speaker 5: Though, depends on the price. Every everyone has a everyone

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Speaker 5: has a price for anything.

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Speaker 4: So like solid debass reference right there.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the so like depends like the Giants need to

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Speaker 5: build for the future so that they think that they

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Speaker 5: have Dark Dart, they think they have their franchise quarterback,

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Speaker 5: so you know, getting rid of some big contracts, getting

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Speaker 5: some draft picks and then building up that youth could

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Speaker 5: be the direction that they take. But the Giants are

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Speaker 5: in a weird place. Like what it now that they

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Speaker 5: think they found their quarterback with Dart does that mean

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Speaker 5: Dable stays and sticks around?

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Speaker 2: So I don't know what I WoT you give them.

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Speaker 5: I have no idea. That's not my specialty. But like

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Speaker 5: you could, I have no I have no clue, Like

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Speaker 5: the right comp of draft picks would be. It wouldn't

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Speaker 5: be players, it would just be draft picks.

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Speaker 4: And then all that stuff is so contract dependent too.

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Speaker 2: I just I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we don't even have to talk about who

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Speaker 3: or what. But it's more so just like I don't

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Speaker 3: think you're gonna deal a trade like that the team

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Speaker 3: dealing with so many injuries without giving them bodies.

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Speaker 5: Maybe, But the Giants' issues aren't on the defensive line,

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Speaker 5: like they have.

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Speaker 3: Depth there no I know, but they need but it.

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Speaker 5: Doesn't have to They could throw someone in that's someone.

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Speaker 3: That's yeah, I was gonna say, it doesn't have to

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Speaker 3: be like on the defensive line.

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Speaker 2: They just need to carry someone.

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Speaker 5: In the secondary. That's there's there's options, but that's regardless

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Speaker 5: I just want to see the Ravens go get defensive

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Speaker 5: line help because if they do, I think in five weeks,

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Speaker 5: because I think they're probably gonna go four and one

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Speaker 5: or five and oh over the next five games. People

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Speaker 5: are most people are gonna have them power rated number

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Speaker 5: one in the league again. But they have to address

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Speaker 5: to this line because there's still a little vulnerable against

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Speaker 5: the run because of it, and they also can't generate

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Speaker 5: pressure right now because of it. So it's hurting them

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Speaker 5: on multiple fronts. And it's really like it's ultimately what

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Speaker 5: would hold them back if they do end up making

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Speaker 5: the playoffs, because I mean, right now, their defensive line

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Speaker 5: with Washington Ladabuque and you know, I mean others on

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Speaker 5: IR they trade it all away. It's Travis Jones, John Jenkins,

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Speaker 5: and Brent Herban as your starters, like Peebles as your backup.

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Speaker 5: Like that's not going to get it done up front.

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Speaker 5: So that is what I'm watching by far. The Ravens

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Speaker 5: need to get help there.

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Speaker 1: I have a fun one that I think is going

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Speaker 1: to make most people that are listening throw up in

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Speaker 1: their mouths because I think a lot of people are

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Speaker 1: overseeing the Kansas City Chiefs win, but that team for

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Speaker 1: years has needed a solid running back stop relying on

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Speaker 1: old man in Kareem Hunt or below average Isaiah Pacheco.

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Speaker 1: There are two teams in the AFC East that should

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Speaker 1: be sellers right now, the Jets and the Dolphins, and

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Speaker 1: both of them have sub elite running backs Devon h

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Speaker 1: Chan Breeze Hall. I would love to see Kansas City

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Speaker 1: make a move on a.

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Speaker 2: Guy was gonna move all year. I've been saying this, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Got to do it.

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Speaker 1: They've just lying on these shitty running backs for years.

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Speaker 1: Now give my homes some.

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Speaker 5: He I'm curious to see what. Yeah, Like, I'm curious

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Speaker 5: to the things I'm most curious about. Is Hendrickson gonna move?

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Speaker 5: I mean, if you're the Bengals.

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Speaker 2: Like, well, they already made a move today.

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Speaker 5: I know they traded Logan Wilson, but he's already benched.

378
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Speaker 5: But like only Jerry Jones could find the diamond and

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Speaker 5: there off the bench linebacker on one of the worst

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Speaker 5: defenses in the issue of the league. So yeah, dude,

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Speaker 5: does Hendrickson get moved because he could provide a major

382
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Speaker 5: boost for some team that really needs an edge rush

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Speaker 5: and like just giving up yeah, I mean, like the

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Speaker 5: deep what is there, Like even with Hendrickson, they're still

385
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Speaker 5: like the worst defense in the league. Like it just

386
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Speaker 5: they need picks, and although they.

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Speaker 3: Can't draft, that's well, my whole thing is that, like

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Speaker 3: we saw what Joe Burrow did last year and kind

389
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Speaker 3: of in a similar situation.

390
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Speaker 2: He came out and was just an.

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Speaker 3: Absolute gun slinger almost you know, had them a like

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Speaker 3: comeback story for the Ages at the end of last year,

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Speaker 3: and I think that they're probably hoping for that again.

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Speaker 5: I mean, but it's how much different gonna look like

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Speaker 5: they're They had Hendrickson last year played at all pro level

396
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Speaker 5: this year, I mean, Flacco just threw for five hundred

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Speaker 5: yards and they lost to the Bears at home, like

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Speaker 5: and they continue.

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Speaker 4: I'm with you, just.

400
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Speaker 5: They can't win anything with this defense. But then again,

401
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Speaker 5: like you have Burrow under contract and Chase and Higgins,

402
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Speaker 5: like the Bengals are just they're a horrendously run organization

403
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Speaker 5: and the main reason, and their owner is terrible, the

404
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Speaker 5: reason is they cannot draft. Go back and look, i

405
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Speaker 5: mean Barrow fell into their laps. They've had a couple

406
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Speaker 5: offensive players just fall into their laps. But go look

407
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Speaker 5: at their offensive line draft picks, their defensive draft picks.

408
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Speaker 5: They've all been complete disasters. That's top down organization, down

409
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Speaker 5: at the scouting and it's it's it's all a dumpster fire.

410
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Speaker 5: The teams that I think are going to sell that,

411
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Speaker 5: And you want to be careful about betting these teams

412
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Speaker 5: on this week, in particular early in the week. By

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Speaker 5: the time you're listening to this, you'll have most of

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Speaker 5: the news. But just keep this in mind in the future.

415
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Speaker 5: But the Saints are probably up there. You know, you

416
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Speaker 5: could see guys like a Lave Shaheed, maybe some defenders

417
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Speaker 5: get moved. I would imagine the Dolphins are in like

418
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Speaker 5: we already saw Phillips move, GM gone interim like fire

419
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Speaker 5: sale mode.

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Speaker 2: Just think Wattle will go what's that you think will

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Speaker 2: go for.

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Speaker 5: The right price? Sure, I think that they're they they

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Speaker 5: they trade anyone on the roster right now.

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Speaker 4: Including to us. I think that you're not gonna.

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Speaker 5: Get anyone for two. Someone's gonna take that contract.

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Speaker 4: No, hear me out. Hear me out.

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Speaker 1: Obviously you're not going to trade to it and get

428
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Speaker 1: something for him. But if you pair him with I

429
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Speaker 1: think they'd have to trade him with something like a

430
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Speaker 1: second round pick, just to have a team that feels

431
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Speaker 1: like they can revive his career, take on the contract.

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Speaker 1: I do think that's something that they will maybe not now,

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Speaker 1: I don't know they ever explore.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I I just don't know how if you're any

435
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Speaker 5: serious team. So, I mean there are some unseerious teams.

436
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 5: I mean, what what is too has a four He

437
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Speaker 5: has a four year, two hundred and fifteen million dollar contract,

438
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Speaker 5: and so.

439
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 4: You're gonna have to pay somebody to take it.

440
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 5: But the other thing is like taking that on with

441
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 5: his when you his career could end it any in

442
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 5: any game, like with his concussion issues too, Like you

443
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 5: got to keep that in mind. So, but yeah, I

444
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 5: think the Dolphins are in complete fire sale mode. I'm

445
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 5: curious to see what the Jets do because they're definitely

446
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 5: a Kennedy so and in the Browns obviously Browns are

447
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 5: in in trade mode.

448
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 3: So I hope Miles I hope Miles Garrett goes. That'd

449
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 3: be so good for him.

450
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 5: I don't think he's they'd they'd ever trade him. He's

451
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 5: like the face of the city.

452
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 2: Craviat if it makes you feel any better. The Jags

453
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 2: did get Rid of that.

454
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: Nick Foles contract, so maybe they can get rid of

455
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 3: to us.

456
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 1: Hey, any anything is possible, Like Stuck, he said, it's

457
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: it's all about the price.

458
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 4: If you pay tidy to do it, they might just

459
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 4: take it.

460
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 5: Trade Jeffrey Simmons is a like he is. If the

461
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 5: Raid's got Jeffrey Simmons, Oh man, I would you'd see

462
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 5: me streaking down my street. You'd see me actually leave

463
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 5: my house in November.

464
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 3: This is from from the production Oh my god, Jacksonville

465
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 3: Jaguars trading for Jacoby Myers.

466
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 4: Is that? Is that an opinion or is that news?

467
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 4: I'm trying to know it's news.

468
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: Adam Schefter two minutes ago.

469
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, we're gonna start to get news in the

470
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 5: next couple of hours. I think what is the deadline

471
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 5: to Eastern n Myers? That's a good get. Yeah, I

472
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 5: didn't mentioned the Raiders, four and six, the Bronco, the

473
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 5: Lucky Broncos. How many more breaks they're gonna get? They

474
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 5: get the Raiders after OT on a short weekend while

475
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 5: they're selling their team off. There's you know what's an

476
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 5: interesting one is do the Chargers try to like they're

477
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 5: in this and now with Joe Ald out for the year,

478
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 5: like they cannot win the Super Bowl with the state

479
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 5: of their offensive line. So do they just say, like,

480
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 5: we'll get our tackles back next year and really go

481
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 5: after plug some of the holes we have, or do

482
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 5: they say, you know, we're in this a FC race,

483
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 5: let's go get tackle help.

484
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 4: But the.

485
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 5: Coming back, so it makes it tricky, like they're probably

486
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 5: coming back.

487
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 4: They're coming back this year. All was placed on the

488
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 4: IR No, I think they're out for the year.

489
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: Okay, then they should probably make a move. They're as

490
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: good as.

491
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 5: Because tackles are expensive and you already have you know,

492
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:17,120
Speaker 5: two potential All pro so you can't like go get

493
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 5: a premium tackle, but maybe you can add a vet.

494
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 5: But yeah, Slater torrest, Pateller tendency, he's out for the year.

495
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 5: And I believe Joe All was just ruled out of

496
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 5: the season. Let me say, uh, yeah, he's he's gonna

497
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 5: have a season ending surgery high ankle injury, which is

498
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 5: so unfortunate, Like you see the difference between him and

499
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 5: there and him out of there by the way. Something

500
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 5: i'lso keep in mind, just while it's on my mind.

501
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 5: If you're looking at NFL lines. This week. One of

502
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 5: the trickiest games on the entire board is Lions commanders.

503
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 5: You have Luvu suspended, now you have all the Washington

504
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 5: defensive injuries. I don't know mclaurin's status. You're gonna Marriot

505
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 5: to starting, but the Lions could they had they just

506
00:24:56,080 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 5: placed their Mahogany on ir, they might be without Sewell

507
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 5: and Decker. So I don't know who wins that matchup

508
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 5: of the Washington The biggest pillow fight of the weekend,

509
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 5: the Washington backup defensive lines versus the Lions backup offensive line,

510
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 5: because if they're without their tackles and one of their guards, like,

511
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 5: it's ugly. And the Lions offense the way, people aren't

512
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 5: talking about this enough. Lions offense since October first, twenty

513
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 5: fourth in success rate, eighteenth in EPA per play, twenty

514
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 5: ninth in rush success rate. You know it's number one

515
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 5: over that span, Chicago Bears. So the only team's rushing

516
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 5: it worse right now, and it's barely than the Lions

517
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 5: since October first, And by the way, they played the

518
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 5: Bengals over that stretch, So that the Bears are the Texans,

519
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 5: the Browns and the Saints I believe maybe the Raiders

520
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 5: up there, but it's been bad. The offense is not

521
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 5: what is that. It's the loss of Ben Johnson and

522
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 5: the offensive line. You saw that against Minnesota. Talked about

523
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 5: this last week, but the offensive line, and you know

524
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 5: Decker hasn't been healthy. The interior is worse, and now

525
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 5: you have the backup to Maogany is horrendous. But if

526
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 5: you were at Soul, you know, one of the two

527
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 5: best tackles. I don't know how that happens with that

528
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 5: Washington game, is uh, that's a crazy one.

529
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 4: So well, we happened.

530
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: We happen to have a pick on that later on

531
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: in the episode, and we'll get to that momentarily. Someone

532
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: in on the chat here internally said Jacoby Meers, not

533
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: Jerry Rice, So just keep that in mind. I mean,

534
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: they need Are you still processing this? This is a

535
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 1: big move for your team.

536
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 2: I'm honestly not sweating it at all.

537
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: I get that he's on an expiring contract and giving

538
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,719
Speaker 3: up a fourth for him sounds insane, But they have

539
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 3: two fourth round picks. It's going to be the higher

540
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 3: of the fourth round pick. They have so many sixth

541
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 3: round picks it's actually disgusting, Like, what the hell are

542
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 3: we going to do with all of them? Anyway, it

543
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: sounds to me like this is pro probably a move

544
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 3: because they're either going to trade BTJ or Hunters out

545
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 3: for the season.

546
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 2: In Gladstone's we trust, here we go.

547
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 3: I'm glad they're doing something and they're not just sitting

548
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 3: here and being passive.

549
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 2: I'll take it. I don't care f them picks. Let's

550
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 2: do all we ride.

551
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 4: We were about to get to some picks ourselves.

552
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 1: The sports betting Variety, We're gonna take a look at

553
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: Thursday Night football first between the Raiders and the Broncos.

554
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: But first a word from our very own Kendres. We

555
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: chat about our great friends at DraftKings.

556
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where

557
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred

558
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,720
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559
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560
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:39,359
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561
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,160
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562
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,080
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563
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564
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565
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:51,479
Speaker 2: The crown is yours.

566
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football Raiders at Broncos.

567
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 5: Thursday Night Football.

568
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 4: Broncos favored by nine and a half.

569
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 2: At Denver Broncos.

570
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 4: Then it went to eight and a half, then they

571
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 4: were back up to nine and a half. This morning.

572
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 4: Now it was back to eight and a half.

573
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: And we continue to play ping pong with this spread

574
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: over under sitting at forty two and a half.

575
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 4: Settled at forty two and a half.

576
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: Denver is going to their throwbacks on Thursday, so factor

577
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: that into the spread as you.

578
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 4: Wish, because those are some pretty sweet threads.

579
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 2: Matter a half.

580
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: I'm yeah, I look good, feel good, play good. I

581
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: love these teams that have these killer throwbacks. They always

582
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: seem to play up as silly as it sounds, but

583
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: the numbers actually back it up. They are three and

584
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: zero in this uniform combination since twenty twenty four, so

585
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: there's something to that. Broncos eight straight outright wins at home,

586
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: the Raiders off of an overtime loss to the Jaguars,

587
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 1: and on top of that, Las Vegas struggles to move

588
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: the ball twenty sixth in yards per play. Well, Denver's

589
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: defense is first in the league in yards per play allowed,

590
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: So should be a terrible matchup for the Raiders. With

591
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 1: all that give me Las Vegas in a divisional game

592
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: in prime time, I think we get a good, solid

593
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 1: effort here. I could go into more specifics, but I'll

594
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: let you guys dig into this one. I mean, it's

595
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: a market read as much as anything else. Every time

596
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 1: this number gets up to nine and a half, it

597
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: gets bought back down. So if you can get the

598
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 1: nine or nine and a half on the Raiders, I

599
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: feel like by the time we get to kick off,

600
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: there's gonna be some good CLV on that number.

601
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: Stucky, how do you see it?

602
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 5: I wouldn't bet this right now. I mean because you

603
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 5: got to see that the Raiders are selling right now,

604
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 5: so who knows who else they might move. Plus you're

605
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 5: kind of in a dead zone, you know, like getting

606
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 5: getting the getting above a nine. Who cares now that

607
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 5: I said it will nine? But and so the other

608
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 5: thing that I'm really worried about is the Raiders were

609
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 5: on the field. They're defensive on the field for forty

610
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 5: three minutes only the Saints were on the field more.

611
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 5: They had a bottom fifteen time of possession game in

612
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,719
Speaker 5: the history of the NFL, the Raiders were just right

613
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 5: there because they went overtime, they played every possible minute.

614
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 5: Teams on a short week after overtime playing on Thursday

615
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 5: or Friday are six and twenty five against the spread,

616
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 5: six and twenty five all time, and they're failing to

617
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 5: cover by about six points per game. I believe it,

618
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 5: three and fourteen against the spread on the road, ortal spot.

619
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 5: Now you're going to altitude as well. Having said that,

620
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 5: if I get a ten here, like, I don't know

621
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 5: how much that's worth, Like I make it worth like

622
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 5: a point and a half, which is substantial. Complete guess

623
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 5: on my part, I don't really know what it's worth,

624
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 5: but historically you can look back and it's definitely worth something.

625
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 5: And your defense is probably going to be a little gas.

626
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 5: But I mean, this Broncos offense is I'm not laying

627
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 5: it with Denver. I just would like to get a

628
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 5: ten here. I also would like to see who the

629
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 5: Raiders if they move anybody else. The Denver defense also

630
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 5: isn't the same without certain we saw that early against

631
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:58,239
Speaker 5: Houston before Stroud got hurt. So yeah, if I can

632
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 5: get a ten, I'd be in interested if not that ten.

633
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: Isn't it doesn't look like the ten is coming because

634
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: every time this touches. I've been following this for the

635
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: last every time he touches.

636
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 5: You can still a bigger but you could still a

637
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 5: bigger money come in later in the week and and

638
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 5: uh and the.

639
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 4: Crazy moves then that would be problematic.

640
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 5: Raiders could also move other guys. But this the spot

641
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 5: is really really bad for the Raiders. And like I

642
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 5: said before, bow Knicks does look good when he plays

643
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 5: you know, bottom tier defenses, and they did look.

644
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 2: Like three quarters last week.

645
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, but he's playing a good defense. If you look

646
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 5: at bo Nick's numbers against any competent defense, especially elite defense,

647
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 5: he's among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Like I'm

648
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 5: like bottom bottom tier whenever he faces a really good defense,

649
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 5: but against the worst defenses. I think if you look

650
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 5: at all of his e p A this year, like

651
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 5: all all of his positives, it all came against the Bengals,

652
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 5: the Cowboys, uh, and the Raiders are they're not as bad,

653
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 5: but they're not too far behind. So yeah, I need

654
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 5: a ten here, and I want to see I need

655
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 5: more info in the Raiders.

656
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 6: So I.

657
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: Think the Raiders.

658
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: I think the Raiders are definitely gonna make some serious moves.

659
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 2: They've got to be sellers. Gina sucks. They're gonna need

660
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 2: a quarterback.

661
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 3: I don't think that they're gonna hank far enough to

662
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 3: kind of beat out some of these other teams for

663
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 3: earlier picks. I could see Max Crosby being on the move.

664
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 3: My whole thing with this it feels like I said,

665
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: Bonix looked like a freakin idiot for three quarters last week,

666
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 3: and then in the fourth quarter it was like Bonus hour.

667
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 2: My thing is the Broncos in this spot.

668
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 3: Yes they're at home, but they feel like they're about

669
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 3: due for a loss, and a bad one.

670
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: It's a divisional game.

671
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: Divisional games are different anytime there's over at touched on

672
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 3: any divisional game in any other spot outside of the

673
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 3: trade deadline.

674
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 2: If this were Thursday and this number.

675
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 3: Was here, I'd probably be like, yeah, sure if this

676
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 3: team looks the same outside of Jacoby, yeah, Raiders. But

677
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 3: the thing is is that we don't know what it's

678
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 3: going to look like. I don't want to bet on

679
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 3: a team that I don't know what's gonna look like

680
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 3: two days from now, let alone a couple hours from now.

681
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 3: But the Raiders look like they're due for a win.

682
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 3: Broncos look like they're due for a loss. I hate

683
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 3: that it's a divisional game, and I don't know what

684
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: the Raiders are going to look like in a couple

685
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 3: of days.

686
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 2: So for me right now, it's a pass.

687
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 3: If this were Thursday and everything was as is right now,

688
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 3: I would probably get behind the Raiders. I just until

689
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 3: I have more information camp because it looks like the

690
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: Broncos are due for a loss.

691
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, but fair enough. I will say, like you're watching

692
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 5: the market and like once it goes to nine and

693
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 5: a half, it's come back to nine eight and a

694
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 5: half dripping up. Some of that is like you know

695
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 5: some big, some bigger money will take that buy a

696
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 5: cheap or a little expense of ten, so they don't

697
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 5: want it to get there. But then also when you

698
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 5: come down to eight and a half, you're gonna have

699
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 5: people teasing the Broncos, so it's probably gonna float.

700
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: This did open at ten to that point, and we

701
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 1: have not seen that ten pop back.

702
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 5: But you're at nine and a half now nine and

703
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 5: a half or nine. There's no harm in waiting because

704
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 5: this isn't going to go to seven. It's not going

705
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 5: to go to eight. Most likely it's not gonna go

706
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 5: to seven and a half, So I shouldn't say it's

707
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 5: not I don't think it is. So like if you

708
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 5: lock in nine, nine and a half and then it

709
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 5: goes to ten, you missed out on a secondary key

710
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 5: number if it never gets there, and say you have

711
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 5: to bet nine instead of nine and a half, Like

712
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 5: the percentage of games that land on nine in the

713
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 5: NFL heaven Uh.

714
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 4: It's not so much about landing on nine, it's the eight.

715
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: At this point, especially with the prominence of the two

716
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: point conversion, is becoming more key. I don't want I

717
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: want to be on the raiders and if this land,

718
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: if the number settles on eight, I'm gonna be I

719
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,919
Speaker 1: would have been pissed that I didn't get the nine

720
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: or the nine and a half.

721
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 4: That's where I'm at on this.

722
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 5: I think it's worth it more to wait in this situation.

723
00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 5: But I'm mainly giving higher commentary right to uh, more

724
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 5: general commentary to anyone listening. That's kind of new beginning,

725
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 5: like when you're around those key numbers, Like I'll pull

726
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 5: up a couple of games this week that I'm watching, like,

727
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 5: for example, Seattle Arizona, Like I want to bet Arizona

728
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 5: seven is obviously a key. I'm gonna sit and wait

729
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 5: for as long as I possibly can. You can go

730
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 5: to the action app and you can put a notification

731
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 5: on your good notification whenever it moves.

732
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 4: Uh.

733
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 5: And that way you don't have to sit in front

734
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 5: of an odd screen and watch and what else here.

735
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:37,760
Speaker 2: Great shout for the action app.

736
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 4: Likescause that's why.

737
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 5: Like eight and a half. Sometimes you'll see some books,

738
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 5: we'll move that up to prevent teasers, like I'm sure

739
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 5: a lot of people want to tease the Broncos down,

740
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 5: and then when it gets to there's probably some sharper money,

741
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 5: some numbers guys that want to bet that would love

742
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 5: to have the Raiders that have a reasonable ten. So

743
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 5: as a result, you're going to see some back and

744
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 5: forth here and then we'll see what the Raiders do.

745
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 5: But yeah, you can get a cheap eight and a

746
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 5: half on the Raiders at DraftKings right now. So I'm

747
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 5: not saying you're wrong, I'm just explaining the thinking.

748
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 1: And we got a nice little nugget here in the

749
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,439
Speaker 1: in the back end of the chat last five years,

750
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: twenty five games have fallen on nine. Fifty four have

751
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: fallen on eight, sixty two I have fallen on ten.

752
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, nine, you're rarely so I think we're going.

753
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 1: To play this game too with Monday Night Football. We'll

754
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 1: get to that in a second.

755
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 4: Time.

756
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: To plant our flag for Week ten, presented by DraftKings,

757
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: the crown is yours.

758
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 5: It Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.

759
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck, Tendra,

760
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,919
Speaker 1: who will you be planting your flag on for Week ten?

761
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: As we look to stay hot this week on the favorites,

762
00:36:59,040 --> 00:36:59,399
Speaker 1: I got.

763
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 3: A rock with the line probably my favorite game of

764
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 3: the week.

765
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 2: I already bet it.

766
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,879
Speaker 3: Bet it last night. If you follow us on action,

767
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 3: you definitely got that notification. The Commanders are a bad team.

768
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 3: They've lost by a lot of points for a lot

769
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 3: of weeks now. They lost to the Seahawks thirty eight

770
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 3: fourteen obviously, Chiefs twenty eight to seven, the Cowboys forty

771
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 3: four to twenty two. Staydon Daniels is probably gonna miss

772
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 3: the rest of the season. I don't care what the

773
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 3: X rays said. There's no way in hell he comes

774
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: back from that. Did you guys watch what happened his arm?

775
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 3: Like in slow motion?

776
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 4: That was pretty great?

777
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 3: Like gross, the fact that the I get that the

778
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: you know, is it an MRI that they're gonna do

779
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 3: that's gonna show all the structural damage whatever, there's no

780
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: way that that X ray is honest and truthful and

781
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: too No, I don't believe it feels like a good

782
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: spot for the Lions. They need a good bounce back game.

783
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 3: Commander is a good easy team to beat up on

784
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 3: and they let up points.

785
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 1: Stuck you what about you? It is your plant the

786
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:48,319
Speaker 1: flag game this week?

787
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 5: Yeah, I can't get there on the line. I mean,

788
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 5: like like the lines in order to lay in a half,

789
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 5: I'd have to make them like eleven points better than

790
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 5: the Commanders. And the Lions might not have they might

791
00:37:57,880 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 5: not have any offensive line. And like I just said,

792
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 5: they've been a bottom ten offense, bottom ten offense in

793
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 5: the month since over June weeks five and nine. In

794
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 5: October first it is not working. And like everyone, I

795
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 5: think the Lions are the most overrated team in the

796
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 5: league right now. Like you look, look at last week.

797
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 5: I don't know, they were minus dying at home against

798
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 5: the Vikings. I can say that because I bet the

799
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 5: Vikings and they lost outright the JJ McCarthy. They never

800
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 5: lose those games coming out of a bye at home

801
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 5: with Jared Goff who owned the Vikings. It's not the same.

802
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 5: And now they might be without school, they might be

803
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 5: without Decker, They're already without a guard. I don't think

804
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 5: the defense is any good. Like what result this year,

805
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 5: Like they beat the Ravens, like that beat up Ravens defense.

806
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 5: They had a really good game plan against Lamar. But

807
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 5: other than that, like their best result is they beat

808
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 5: the all the backups on the Bucks like that's I

809
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 5: think the lines are extremely orated. But like Washington's a mess,

810
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 5: Like there's a lot of injuries on defense. I don't

811
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 5: know McLain's gonna play. You're gonna Mariota lou who suspended too, Like,

812
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 5: so I just can't get that to that number.

813
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: I don't know. They beat your Ravens by eight.

814
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they could cover, but I just can't

815
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 5: get to that number. I'll say I'm gonna play my

816
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 5: flag on the Packers minus two and a half at

817
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:12,399
Speaker 5: home against the Eagles. I think we're getting under three

818
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 5: because of last week flukey game and weather, the Packers

819
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 5: didn't punt once. Jordan Love still second EPA per play

820
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 5: among all quarterbacks behind Darnold. They just got too conservative

821
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 5: last week. Their special teams have been an issue. I

822
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 5: think you see them get more aggressive here this week.

823
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 5: I am not a believer in this Eagles team. Maybe

824
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 5: they come out of out of the by and look

825
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 5: a lot better. But they beat the basically the practice

826
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,320
Speaker 5: squad of the Giants. But before then they should have

827
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 5: lost that Minnesota I think our luck rankings had that

828
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 5: as a seven point loss. The Vikings just couldn't score

829
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 5: in the red zone. They got blown out against the Giants.

830
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 5: They let bo Nicks come back and beat them. You

831
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 5: know they they like they should have lost to the Rams,

832
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 5: they should have lost to the Chiefs. They only beat

833
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 5: the Cowboys at home. Like this has not been impressive.

834
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 5: Is a team that still leads the league in three

835
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 5: and outright. I think the Packer's gonna be able to

836
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 5: get pressure. I still love this Green Day offense. I

837
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 5: think this Philly defense is way down this year. I

838
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 5: still I still think the Packers the best team in

839
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 5: the NFC. I'm getting them under a field go at home.

840
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 5: You bet taking it Packers minus two and a half draftings.

841
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: Right, I think that's crazy head to head bets.

842
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: My play at the Flag game is the Philadelphia Eagles

843
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 1: plus the two and a half I gotta.

844
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 5: Add to the Packers. Now, I'm gonna I want some cheese.

845
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 5: I want some cheese. Ship we're head to head.

846
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 1: I can't believe we're doing that.

847
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's let's bet for some cheese. I'll send you

848
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 5: some really good cheese.

849
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 2: Wheel of cheese.

850
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, this one's for a wheel of cheese. I'm

851
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 4: good with that. But you know what when I win crazy?

852
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: When I win, I'm gonna I'm gonna melt my cheese

853
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: on a Philadelphia cheese steak right here. I have this,

854
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: So my my power rating has the Packers minus one.

855
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 1: That's not even accounting for the Tucker Craft injury. The

856
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: Packers offense kind of runs through him, and I'm not

857
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: exactly sure what he's worth to the spread, but it's

858
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: got to be at least half a point. So then

859
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 1: that would bump it down to Packers at nearly a pick.

860
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 1: And I'm getting plus two and a half on Philadelphia

861
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: off of a bye. I can't trust Jordan Love week

862
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 1: to week. I never know what version of him is

863
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 1: going to show up. How he's out here making moves too.

864
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 1: So if we're talking about bumping down the bad teams

865
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 1: that are gonna sell, can we bump up a team

866
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 1: that we know is going to be aggressive as they

867
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 1: already have? The Packers the only team in the NFL

868
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: this season also that have lost two games in which

869
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: they were a touchdown favorite two times to be.

870
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 2: Bad teams just have the Packers. Well, that's poort number.

871
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: That is definitely part of it. Matt Lafleur and Jordan

872
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 1: Love cannot be trusted as big favorites, and that's not

873
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: the case here. But the overall point that I wanted

874
00:41:56,160 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 1: to make to punctuate that is that if we're going

875
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 1: to make a statement stucky like we are overrating the

876
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions, we've got to say that about the Green

877
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: Bay Packers at this point.

878
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 5: The Packers who blew out the lines.

879
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 4: They are on.

880
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 3: The season total body lost to the Browns and the Panthers,

881
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 3: they're overrated.

882
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 5: I disagree. So we'll find out on Monday. You're watching

883
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 5: the market.

884
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 1: This block the team, block it if it closed, if

885
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 1: it closes it three, I'll bet the Eagles again.

886
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 5: Why would you bet the Eagles now plus two and

887
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:35,760
Speaker 5: a half because I don't.

888
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 4: Think that I don't think the three is coming back.

889
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 5: But again, you don't think that, you don't know it's

890
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 5: limits get to go up.

891
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 2: During the notifications of the.

892
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 5: There's there's no reason to back plus two and a

893
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 5: half now because if this goes to three, it'spect the

894
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 5: biggest key number in all of the NFL. Like you're

895
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 5: you're giving up so much equity that ticks starts to

896
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 5: tick down to two.

897
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 1: If this goes back to three, I will I might

898
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: buy you. I'll buy you the cheese before I even

899
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: lose the bet. This one's not touching three.

900
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 5: But who cares if it does or doesn't, you might

901
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 5: as well. Wait it's my point, That's all I'm saying.

902
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 4: I mean two two is still key.

903
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 5: Also, it's nowhere close to three, Like it's not even

904
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 5: in the same stratosphere.

905
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 4: Three.

906
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 2: When my parents fight in front of me, king.

907
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 5: King, three is king if anyone missing out there just

908
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 5: no three is king in the NFL. If you have

909
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 5: your look, if you want a dog that's at two

910
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 5: and a half, wait, see if there's ever a three

911
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 5: that pumps.

912
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,320
Speaker 1: But three is about fifteen percent of the time. Two

913
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 1: is roughly four and a half. So to that point,

914
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 1: at and lately it's it's got that that that has shrunk.

915
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 4: We're gonna get ahead of the market here.

916
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go our play at the flag games

917
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,399
Speaker 1: the Lions minus eight and a half for Kendra. We've

918
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 1: got a head to head bet the Packers minus two

919
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: and a half for Stucky, Eagles plus two and a

920
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: half for me. And now time for the main event.

921
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 1: No betting week can start without it. It's It's the primer.

922
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: Courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, Welcome to the show. Where

923
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: do you land on the dog fight? That is Eagles Packers?

924
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 7: So I had the Packers to win the Super Bowl

925
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 7: in the preseason. I feel like I felt good with

926
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 7: that pick up to the Panthers game, and I probably

927
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 7: would have felt good after the Panthers game if it

928
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,439
Speaker 7: wasn't for the Craft injury. I feel like that makes

929
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 7: them a lot less versusile. So I think in this

930
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 7: game specifically, I will do exactly what Stucky says and

931
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 7: wait on the sidelines because if three comes, I think

932
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 7: Philly's the side. I don't think I could see myself

933
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 7: betting Green Bay after that injury and having to adjust

934
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 7: the offense so much. But it's gonna be a great game.

935
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 7: I mean that, plus Tampa Bay in New England. This

936
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 7: is like the best duo of games we've had in

937
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 7: a long time. I'm in the same.

938
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: Week, Yeah, and I'm excited that I'm this invested in

939
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 1: a Monday night football game. It feels like it's been

940
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: a while. Nice to get that standalone to end the week.

941
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:12,720
Speaker 1: What are the trends that we need to be aware

942
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: of before we go firing away on the apps?

943
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 7: Just a few fun things off the bat here. So

944
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,720
Speaker 7: Arizona last night obviously takes care of Dallas. NFC West

945
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 7: eighteen and seven now against the spread versus teams outside

946
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 7: of the NFC West this year, that's the best mark

947
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 7: through nine weeks for any.

948
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 5: Division since twenty twenty. So all four teams in the

949
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 5: NFC West.

950
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 7: Above five hundred this year, Seattle and the Rams at

951
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 7: the top of the NFL and ATS at the moment,

952
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,399
Speaker 7: So some fun stuff going on out West. There only

953
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 7: division as well where all four teams are above five hundred.

954
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 6: ATS other than that, to me the lion stuff that

955
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 6: Kendrew was talking about, Like, you're gonna hear it everywhere,

956
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 6: but one uncovered twelve straight games after a loss since

957
00:45:58,280 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 6: November one.

958
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 7: Of twenty twenty two. That was the last time we

959
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 7: saw them lose after a loss. You're gonna hear it

960
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 7: everywhere this week. That is the longest streak and I'm

961
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 7: going through right now. I can find in a long

962
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 7: time for any team after a loss. So everyone thinks

963
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 7: it's automatic. The line kind of shows it, but that

964
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 7: is a streak. You will hear a lot of Yeah,

965
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 7: just like that.

966
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, like last week more than last week, they were

967
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:20,839
Speaker 5: eight to zer against the spread in their last eight

968
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 5: against the Vikings, they were like ten and one against

969
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 5: the spread after bye. This ain't the same lines team

970
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 5: telling you correct.

971
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, And that's what everyone is going to make the

972
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,919
Speaker 7: assumption of also action number percentages right now early week

973
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 7: seventy eight percent of tickets on Detroit, ninety eight percent

974
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 7: of the money. Like, everybody is going to just make

975
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 7: the assumption on Detroit this week.

976
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 5: So we will see there.

977
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 7: The other one, if you're just gonna look at the board,

978
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 7: Carolina min is five and a half, pretty funny, it's

979
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 7: their biggest game favorite since twenty twenty one. They've lost

980
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 7: ten straight as a favorite as well, So we will

981
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 7: see how that goes for them against the lonely.

982
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 5: Saints, and Saints might be traders sellers, as we said, correct,

983
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 5: they could be, they might go higher.

984
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 4: Yeah.

985
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 8: Yeah.

986
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 1: One of the other things that I am betting against

987
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 1: here is I do think there's gonna be some market

988
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: sentiment on Okay, the Packers lost as big underdogs, this

989
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 1: is a bounce back opportunity, I would I would think,

990
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: let me be very clear about transparent. I think the

991
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 1: Eagles are going to have a high percentage of the

992
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: bets this week. But I do think there's going to

993
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 1: be a line of thinking for Packers backers that because

994
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 1: they were such a big favorite last week and they lost,

995
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,359
Speaker 1: that this is a buying opportunity on them. They are

996
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 1: the largest favorites to lose outright. Since the Titans beat

997
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: the Dolphins as fourteen and a half point underdogs. I

998
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 1: think that game was in prime time too, Week fourteen

999
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty three season. Any recollection, now this

1000
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: is a very limited sample, but any recollection as to

1001
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: what the Dolphins did the following week after they were

1002
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 1: two touchdown favorites and lost the game outright.

1003
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 7: It's funny, I thought you actually asked me this question

1004
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 7: kind of facetiously because they want thirty nothing against the

1005
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 7: Jets the next week, which obviously says great things about

1006
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 7: what the situation was. But I also have to mention

1007
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 7: it was the Jets. But if you look in our database,

1008
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 7: teams lose by twelve as at twelve and a half

1009
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 7: plus point favorite nineteen twelve and two ats in the

1010
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 7: next game. Super small sample size and a lot of

1011
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 7: noise there. But I do probably think there is like

1012
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 7: a motivational comeback to the meme. Plus the line probably

1013
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:33,439
Speaker 7: drops on the clothes for the team that we thought

1014
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 7: was really good, So I think there's a few factors

1015
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:36,759
Speaker 7: buying in there.

1016
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 5: But it's it's tight. That's basically my reason. I think

1017
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 5: the past and teams are going to lose flukey games.

1018
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 5: What ad the outain them by one hundred and twenty

1019
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 5: didn't punt one time in the game. Yeah, then miss

1020
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 5: field rolls like those weather and I look back the

1021
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 5: remember the Chiefs lost of the Raiders at home last year.

1022
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 5: The Ravens lost to the Raiders at home and then

1023
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 5: won like ten of eleven and everyone was like panicking,

1024
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 5: the Ravens are all and two. They lost to Garner

1025
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 5: Minshew and the Raiders in Baltimore, and you know, I

1026
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 5: think they covered like six and row after that. I

1027
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 5: think that's what's driving it. I think designed you b three.

1028
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 5: I think it would have been three if the Packers

1029
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 5: one and now we're getting to an alf So that's

1030
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 5: basically the main reason to my bad. But we also

1031
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 5: have we also have Lamar first half trend and Lamar

1032
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 5: varus NFC. I'll be looking at Raven's first half this

1033
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 5: week under a field goal.

1034
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 1: Anything post trade deadline trends wise that we should be

1035
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,359
Speaker 1: aware of. Is there anything you have anything on that,

1036
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: Evan before we wrap?

1037
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1038
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 7: So the only thing that I find interesting, and I

1039
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 7: kind of dug into this a little bit, is the

1040
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 7: closing lines into the trade deadline weeks. So I'll have

1041
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 7: something about that in my article, but I wanted to

1042
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:50,839
Speaker 7: dig a little bit further because you have to pin

1043
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 7: the trade deadline hasn't been the same every year, so

1044
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 7: I'm looking into it a little bit, So check out

1045
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 7: the primer for that. But I do think it tends

1046
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 7: to be in an outline week in the sense that

1047
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 7: teams get worse and teams get better. But mostly it's

1048
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,520
Speaker 7: the teams get worse angle because sometimes the players don't

1049
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 7: play right away for the teams they go to. But

1050
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 7: like a team like the Raiders could be extremely decimated

1051
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 7: and the line could rise a few points, which actually

1052
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 7: would probably give some value to Vegas in that spot.

1053
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 5: So yeah, that that's what I was This is very

1054
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 5: hard to parse through because this is something I wanted

1055
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 5: to look at, So I don't know how you'll end

1056
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 5: up doing it because you don't going back to every

1057
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 5: year and then saying like here's the teams that traded

1058
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 5: someone key and here's the ones that got.

1059
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 7: Versus injuries, which would take so long. I was just

1060
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,399
Speaker 7: gonna look at line movement in trade deadline week.

1061
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 5: That's what I was gonna suggest. Look, I would filter

1062
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:46,239
Speaker 5: like the worst team so like win percentage really low

1063
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:51,919
Speaker 5: line moves against them by a certain amount, didn't move

1064
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 5: too much, right, so like is there? Yeah, this would

1065
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 5: be my thought to say. And then on the on

1066
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 5: the flip side, some of the best teams who hadded

1067
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 5: someone that first week is it is the market overreacting,

1068
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 5: which it certainly could. I would tend to think over time,

1069
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 5: even if it's just slightly, the market probably overreacts in

1070
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 5: general in totality.

1071
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 8: For so, the funny thing is the line might overreact

1072
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:19,760
Speaker 8: for a player that may not even end up playing

1073
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 8: that week anyway, Like just with the team making a

1074
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 8: trade for a player, the line going up and maybe

1075
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 8: that player, you know, Yeah, and then.

1076
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 5: On the flip side, the narrative of like all this

1077
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 5: team's quit, they're selling, and then people just betting against them,

1078
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 5: and then it goes a little too far. So interesting. Yeah,

1079
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 5: make sure you check out Evan's private love something on

1080
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 5: that for sure.

1081
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,320
Speaker 4: Actionally work at and fade the narratives.

1082
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: The Favorites is a wrap for today special thanks to

1083
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 1: our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould. We'll be back

1084
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,439
Speaker 1: at it on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page

1085
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: where we talk week ten best of bets and our

1086
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 1: two Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see if we

1087
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: can go back to back this week. We'll see you

1088
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 1: next time here on the Favorites presented by Draft Kings

1089
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 1: or Out Go Pat Goat.

1090
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1091
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,800
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1092
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler