Speaker 1: What lessons can we learn from the twenty twenty four season?
Speaker 2: A lot.
Speaker 1: I can also overthink some things. Well, we're going to
Speaker 1: tackle that today by using some great data right here
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I am Chris Welsh
Speaker 1: joined today two of the best that you could possibly
Speaker 1: ask for. I've got Pat Fitzmorris and Andrew Rickson with
Speaker 1: me as we are going to be tackling some big questions.
Speaker 1: So what lessons did we learn? We're going to get
Speaker 1: it from these guys. Plus, we have aggregated some data
Speaker 1: from my playbook, which you guys should know all about
Speaker 1: here with Fantasy Pros, and we have the players that
Speaker 1: were on the most championship roster and we are going
Speaker 1: to be dissecting that. We're actually going to give you
Speaker 1: the all championship team. How funny that is because all
Speaker 1: these guys had to be on championships. Well, we're going
Speaker 1: to give you the highest collection of them. We're going
Speaker 1: to talk about what lessons we learned from that. We're
Speaker 1: going to look at twenty twenty four to ADP where
Speaker 1: those lessons were positional stuff Boys schools session, That's what
Speaker 1: we are. We've got Professor Fitzmorris, Pat, what's somebody doing?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: Well, how about you? Are you enjoying the NFL playoffs
Speaker 2: so far?
Speaker 1: Not Monday Nights football game that we just watched, but
Speaker 1: there were a couple that were enjoyable. We're recording this
Speaker 1: obviously right after the first Divisional round Monday's game where
Speaker 1: the Vikings just the whole thing up and it wasn't
Speaker 1: very enjoyable. My pocketbook, as I've said million times, Ericson
Speaker 1: knows this. If I just stuck to the bets, I
Speaker 1: publicly cave everybody. I would be a massively successful better.
Speaker 1: If I just only followed my public advice. But I
Speaker 1: go rogue. I get out there.
Speaker 4: It's call of duty.
Speaker 1: It's Nuketown, and I'm like, all right, I gotta do
Speaker 1: this and I gotta do that, and I just get
Speaker 1: nuts with it. Ericson, I don't know if you follow
Speaker 1: your only trends, but I am. I'm a rogue agent
Speaker 1: in the betting world and it's hurting me.
Speaker 4: Yeah. I know. Once you start, the bolts are firing,
Speaker 4: You're just like, oh, I like this one. Oh I
Speaker 4: like this one. You're like, no, you need to step
Speaker 4: away from the computer. Turn off the smart and walk
Speaker 4: away and be like I like these bets on Thursday
Speaker 4: and Friday, and the process was good. And now I
Speaker 4: don't need to go after this twenty percent profit boost
Speaker 4: that X and O is offering because it's probably not
Speaker 4: gonna happen in this particular game. So let's just take
Speaker 4: the steps back. But Matthew Stafford somehow didn't get over
Speaker 4: his passing yards, which I was very happy about, even
Speaker 4: though he was dealing. But when you lose your number
Speaker 4: one receiver, Todd Higbee, I mean, that's the result you get.
Speaker 4: So I didn't hate the game because I did like
Speaker 4: the unders. But justin Jefferson not going over six and
Speaker 4: a half catches, yeh, he had I think five in
Speaker 4: the first half.
Speaker 1: Catches in the first half. Everybody knows you don't throw
Speaker 1: to Jefferson in the second half. Clearly that's what you
Speaker 1: don't do. Yeah, exactly, that's exactly right. Well, hey, lessons learned.
Speaker 1: That's what this is all about. Lessons learned. Playoff betting
Speaker 1: is brutal, But we're not here to talk about betting.
Speaker 1: We were talking about the fantasy season and we have
Speaker 1: got all this stuff in store. So like I said,
Speaker 1: I will just be the facilitator. I'm the voice on
Speaker 1: the screen telling you when it's lunchtime and when school
Speaker 1: is out. Here are your two professors, and both of
Speaker 1: these guys are gonna be able to break down some
Speaker 1: big questions that you can take into the new year
Speaker 1: and into your off season in preparation. Because every single
Speaker 1: year it's you know, it's a different process of like,
Speaker 1: here's where quarterbacks are. Do we trust the high end
Speaker 1: tight ends, wide receivers versus running backs? A lot of
Speaker 1: those are tackled. And let's kick this bad boy off.
Speaker 1: Let's just jump right into it with our first piece
Speaker 1: where we are going to dig into this my playbook data.
Speaker 1: So again my playbook with fantasy pros, you can sink
Speaker 1: your leagues in season all of the great tools available
Speaker 1: for you. It also allows us to be able to
Speaker 1: pull what players were on championship rosters and be able
Speaker 1: to aggregate that data. So I've got this spreadsheet with
Speaker 1: percentage totals and all this fun stuff. But I decided
Speaker 1: to make a team out of it. So here is
Speaker 1: your all championship roster roster. So all the top players
Speaker 1: that made it, gentlemen, are quarterback the number This is
Speaker 1: actually the second overall player that was on rosters. Our
Speaker 1: quarterback is going to be Jaden Daniels. Probably no shocker there.
Speaker 1: Running back is going to start with the number one
Speaker 1: player on championship rosters a court. Think about how many
Speaker 1: leagues as is across different formats. The number one player
Speaker 1: Jamior Gibbs, who is still alive. Our second running back,
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley. Wide receivers though, don't quite look like the
Speaker 1: running backs where you've got two high end Gibbs and Barkley.
Speaker 1: That might be one and two in a lot of streets,
Speaker 1: but our wide receivers are not. We've got T Higgins
Speaker 1: and Brian Thomas who actually had the same percentage. So
Speaker 1: I added a third wide receiver, McMillan. Jalen McMillan comes
Speaker 1: in as our third wide receiver. So T Higgins, Brian Thomas,
Speaker 1: Jayalen McMillan, Our tight ends were shared. McBride and Bowers
Speaker 1: both had the same percentage of championship teams, so high
Speaker 1: and tight end and our defense, gentlemen, the Miami Dolphins,
Speaker 1: just like everybody wrote it up that they thought that
Speaker 1: would be that. So here's my question and Fitzy, let's
Speaker 1: start with you. What's the biggest standout of this roster
Speaker 1: of Championship players. I don't really I think I let
Speaker 1: left anybody off just fy. There's a couple more court
Speaker 1: like where the Dolphins are. There's a couple more quarterbacks
Speaker 1: that show up, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow. There's some other
Speaker 1: interesting names that we're going to be talking about that
Speaker 1: are going to be intertwined in this later. But you
Speaker 1: look at that roster of the most rostered players in Championship,
Speaker 1: it's no shock to see big names. What is your takeaway?
Speaker 1: Higher first round running backs maybe being more valuable the
Speaker 1: cheaper chalk wide receivers in their performance and making it
Speaker 1: this far Chalk tight ends, by the way, how about
Speaker 1: one and two at tight end and still were ranked
Speaker 1: pretty high? Upside quarterbacks and a guy like Jay and Daniel.
Speaker 1: I'm just throwing out some ideas. Pick a standout here
Speaker 1: from the most rostered on Championship teams for this session.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there were a few. I mean, getting tight end
Speaker 2: right was really important. And I don't know if those
Speaker 2: guys were necessarily chalk because brock Powers had an adp
Speaker 2: of tight end eleven coming into the season. He did
Speaker 2: finish as a top two tight end. That was great.
Speaker 2: Making investments in rookies was pretty and getting some of
Speaker 2: these guys right. And it wasn't like the guys who
Speaker 2: fared well in their rookie year were unpredictable. We were
Speaker 2: talking about a lot of these guys back in August.
Speaker 2: Jayden Daniels with his running ability and U you know,
Speaker 2: probably a much more advanced passer coming into the league
Speaker 2: than say Anthony Richardson Bowers, who we thought was a
Speaker 2: really extraordinary tight end prospect, Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas
Speaker 2: and Lad McConkie, who a lot of people loved. I
Speaker 2: think the one thing that stands out most to me, though, Welsh,
Speaker 2: was that when you look at these guys who were
Speaker 2: most frequently rostered by championship teams, the production in weeks
Speaker 2: fifteen through seventeen, the playoff weeks was like weighted more
Speaker 2: so than what these players did in weeks one through fourteen.
Speaker 2: I mean, it was like walking into a college class
Speaker 2: and getting the syllabus and learning that you're gonna have
Speaker 2: some papers, they're gonna have some pop quizzes, there's gonna
Speaker 2: be a midterm, but the final exam is sixty percent
Speaker 2: of your grade. And if you knew that in advance,
Speaker 2: you would think, like, I'm gonna study my tail off
Speaker 2: for this final exam, But can you study it?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 2: Is this based on matchups that these guys rocked out
Speaker 2: in the playoff weeks and not always Like I'll give
Speaker 2: you an example. So Lamar Jackson rostered on fourteen percent
Speaker 2: of championship teams, Josh Allen only nine percent. So two
Speaker 2: guys who were great in the fantasy regular season. But
Speaker 2: Lamar had a really good playoff he let's see thirty
Speaker 2: six point one, twenty one point five, and twenty nine
Speaker 2: point four fantasy points in the three playoff weeks. And
Speaker 2: Josh Allen he had a twelve point two point performance
Speaker 2: in Week sixteen that probably tripped up a lot of
Speaker 2: his fantasy teams, And like was that predictable? I don't know,
Speaker 2: because one of the teams Lamar was going against during
Speaker 2: that great stretch, Pittsburgh not a great matchup, Josh Allen,
Speaker 2: like the game where he tripped up and had twelve
Speaker 2: point two points the New England Patriots.
Speaker 1: That's what I was going to ask you, By the way,
Speaker 1: like as you were going, I was like, well, they're
Speaker 1: kind of is a way to tell we could look
Speaker 1: at the matchups and we could rate the matchups because
Speaker 1: ultimately I was like, does this come back to paying
Speaker 1: greater attention to the playoff roster or the playoffs schedule
Speaker 1: for a guy in draft season? It's very hard to do.
Speaker 1: But then you just debunked it. You just debunked in
Speaker 1: a great way that it's like, oh, where is a predictability?
Speaker 1: Because yeah, you would think Josh Allen's going to go
Speaker 1: off and Lamar Jackson, you know, historically struggles against the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. So you know, where's the application? That's the
Speaker 1: And I know you were kind of rhetorically asking it,
Speaker 1: and I'm like physically asking it, like where's the application
Speaker 1: of knowing the difference between Alan and Lamar Jackson? Because
Speaker 1: you're right, it's so heavily weighted.
Speaker 2: The key though Welsh like is it predictably? Like are
Speaker 2: these matchups predictably good or predictably bad? Like jimiir Gibbs
Speaker 2: just completely crushed it in the three postseason weeks, Like
Speaker 2: he just piled up points his opponents those weeks, Buffalo, Chicago,
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Yes, all, all three of those teams were
Speaker 2: among the five teams that allowed the most fantasy points
Speaker 2: to running backs this season. But would you have predicted
Speaker 2: we knew Buffalo was a little soft against the run,
Speaker 2: Chicago maybe not as predictable. San Francisco definitely not as predictable.
Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor's on this list. He tore up the Titans
Speaker 2: and Giants defenses. They were in the top ten as
Speaker 2: far as most points allowed to running backs, but they
Speaker 2: were also in the top half of the league in
Speaker 2: DVOA against the run. And I don't think anyone would
Speaker 2: have thought coming into this season that the Titans were
Speaker 2: going to be a pushover as far as run defense
Speaker 2: when they were pretty good last year. So you can
Speaker 2: study this stuff to an extent in August, I'm not
Speaker 2: going to say it's not important to consider defenses and
Speaker 2: look ahead towards those playoff matchups. I know people in
Speaker 2: Best Ball especially pay heavy attention to that when they're
Speaker 2: drafting their teams. But not always full proof, not always predictable.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean again, the application is kind of the
Speaker 1: tough thing about what you're saying, too, because I think
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys that are on this list.
Speaker 1: There's studs, you know, so it's like who cares if
Speaker 1: who cares in a way of like Saquon Barkley was
Speaker 1: amazing all season, even if you know him being on
Speaker 1: the championship roster was waited in those final three weeks.
Speaker 1: That makes sense. But there are two names that stand
Speaker 1: out here. Brian Thomas was a player of like getting
Speaker 1: in on because he just blew up in the second
Speaker 1: half and McMillan. And McMillan was a really tough one
Speaker 1: to kind of be able to put your finger on
Speaker 1: that he was going to break out, but playing on
Speaker 1: the side of talent and buying on those ericson we
Speaker 1: talked about, you know, like Brian Thomas a ton on
Speaker 1: the Prediction and Buy and Sell trade show all year
Speaker 1: long that it really did pay off at the end.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of studs, Erckson. Your takeaway, like I said,
Speaker 1: I threw out some you know, first round running backs,
Speaker 1: cheaper wide receivers, tied ends just as idea is what
Speaker 1: you take away, especially you can talk about the whole
Speaker 1: sheet or the all on your championship roster team that
Speaker 1: we put together give us a big takeaway.
Speaker 4: So I agree with fits. When it comes to looking
Speaker 4: at this list of players and drafting rookies, right, I
Speaker 4: think that it's kind of twofold where you have rookies
Speaker 4: that can hit immediately and break out, kind of like
Speaker 4: the Melik neighbors, or you also have ones that finish
Speaker 4: the season strong. We see a lot of rookies after
Speaker 4: they get you know, the post rookie bye week, they
Speaker 4: get more involved in offense. And that's obviously talking about
Speaker 4: players like Brian Thomas junior at Jaalen McMillan, where you
Speaker 4: saw them really be forces down the stretch when they
Speaker 4: got more opportunities or whatever. So I think that drafting
Speaker 4: rookies always is a winning strategy, no matter what year
Speaker 4: it is. Other things a point out we're talking about
Speaker 4: projecting matchups. Now this goes into adjusting your roster throughout
Speaker 4: the season, not just when it comes to like waiver wire,
Speaker 4: but when it comes to trades. Obviously, we did the
Speaker 4: trade show this year, Welsh and I remember we were
Speaker 4: pounding the table every single week, was like we got
Speaker 4: to buy Eagles players, we got to buy Buccaneers players.
Speaker 4: Because after weeks eight, nine, ten, it seemed very clear
Speaker 4: that oh these teams have smash matchups in the Plantis
Speaker 4: Football playoffs. So seeing a Detroit Lions player because the
Speaker 4: Lions get another team that had a smash matchup, now
Speaker 4: it's hard because yes, they are studs at the same time.
Speaker 4: So it was you have to trade your studs to
Speaker 4: get these studs with like the favorable playoff matchup. So
Speaker 4: it wasn't super easy, but with at least with the Buccaneers.
Speaker 4: And I know that Bucky Irving's not on this list.
Speaker 4: I know he's like a little bit farther down, but
Speaker 4: he was another player that you could definitely look at
Speaker 4: as oh. He was on a lot of championship winning
Speaker 4: rosters because not only did he take over the backfield,
Speaker 4: but he played on the Buccaneers. They played the Panthers,
Speaker 4: they played the Saints, they plied up a lot of
Speaker 4: really bad teams and that helped him really pull vault
Speaker 4: some of these teams to their championship. So along the
Speaker 4: side with Jayla McMillan as well, where hey, rookie, he
Speaker 4: was banged up earlier in the season, got healthy, got
Speaker 4: favorable matchups down the stretch, and you saw a lot
Speaker 4: of Buccaneers players really cook towards the end of the season.
Speaker 4: So I think that you can have an element of
Speaker 4: what the matchups are the rest of the season when
Speaker 4: you are making and playing in the trade market. And honestly,
Speaker 4: like the Fantasy pros Strength the schedule tool, like this
Speaker 4: is what it told me, like every single week, like
Speaker 4: oh Eagles, Oh Buccaneers.
Speaker 1: Literally at the time of the way, Brian Thomas, I
Speaker 1: believe was like number one best matchup rating I think
Speaker 1: through the end of the year if I'm remembering that correctly,
Speaker 1: and we screamed about Brian Thomas on that. So can
Speaker 1: I ask you guys real quick before we move on
Speaker 1: from this, do you have an applicable time that people
Speaker 1: maybe next year should start checking in and maybe preemptively
Speaker 1: making moves based on schedules and looking at those schedules. Obviously,
Speaker 1: it'd be great if everyone could pay attention to a
Speaker 1: preseason before the you know, we get going. But do
Speaker 1: you think like week eight, Week ten, week six, like
Speaker 1: what would be if you could just give an arbitrary
Speaker 1: number to it where you think people might be. You
Speaker 1: might be ahead of the curve if you started paying
Speaker 1: attention to those schedules. Ericson, let's start with you.
Speaker 4: I think I have to go back and read some
Speaker 4: of my fantasy forecast to kind of see the first
Speaker 4: week that I pinpointed, Oh, the Buccaneers have a good schedule,
Speaker 4: so like this, maybe that's what I kind of needed
Speaker 4: to do and just look back and see it. O. Hey,
Speaker 4: this is when it first came into I acknowledged it
Speaker 4: that this was a favorable schedule because I think it's
Speaker 4: probably better to be a week early than a week
Speaker 4: too late, because again, if you're a week too late,
Speaker 4: then you can't make the deal, like they won't want
Speaker 4: a deal, or you buy the player after a bad week.
Speaker 4: You know, Saque has a bad game, just not the
Speaker 4: top of people's minds. So I would say it's probably
Speaker 4: around that mid section, probably at least a couple of
Speaker 4: weeks before the trade deadline itself, because that's when everyone
Speaker 4: I think is looking. So that's something I'm gonna try
Speaker 4: to keep make a reminder to myself on my wall. Hey,
Speaker 4: week eight, make sure you're looking at the playoff schedule.
Speaker 4: Stay a week ahead so you can make some of
Speaker 4: these traits. You land a Saquon, you can land a
Speaker 4: Jamiir Gibbs, get Gibbs. Also, we didn't mention it, but
Speaker 4: I mean his breakout at the end were not really
Speaker 4: break up, but the way he smashed I mean, Dave
Speaker 4: Montgomery didn't play right, So like it was like the
Speaker 4: perfect storm for Gibbs to just take over and score
Speaker 4: bazillion Fantasy points because his schedule was there, there was
Speaker 4: no backfield competition in the line's offense was cooking for
Speaker 4: this number one seed, so it worked out perfectly for Gibbs.
Speaker 4: So I mean, you could have traded a Barkley for
Speaker 4: a Gibbs type player, and technically that would have been
Speaker 4: the right move because Gibs score more points during the
Speaker 4: Fantasy Championships. So maybe that's not the best example of
Speaker 4: what player you should have moved. But just going back
Speaker 4: to yeah, maybe it is that midweek sect or the
Speaker 4: mid season Week eight, Week seven where you really start
Speaker 4: a look at these playoff matchups because maybe by then
Speaker 4: we kind of know these teams two months in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Week eate was the one that was like arbitraarly
Speaker 1: in my head, Fitzy, what do you think a little
Speaker 1: bit later, a little bit early, just right?
Speaker 2: No, I think Week seven in Week eight is great
Speaker 2: because the closer you get to the trade deadline, the
Speaker 2: more focused other managers are going to be on what
Speaker 2: those playoff schedules look like. And yet we want to
Speaker 2: give the We're going to give things time to normalize.
Speaker 2: We can't really draw firm conclusions about how good defenses
Speaker 2: are in week three. I think we need a month
Speaker 2: to a month and a half of data before we
Speaker 2: can start drawing some pretty solid conclusions about how good
Speaker 2: defenses are. Week seven, Week eight. That does seem like
Speaker 2: a pretty perfect timetable.
Speaker 1: All right, Next up class our presentation. We are going
Speaker 1: to look at our twenty twenty four ADP. So we've
Speaker 1: got a graphic here of what our ADP look like.
Speaker 1: So the top four relative disappointments to big disappointments who
Speaker 1: did not justify their cost Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb,
Speaker 1: Breise Hall. The top two blatantly did not Ceedee Lamb,
Speaker 1: losing Dak obviously, hurt Breese was kind of there were moments,
Speaker 1: but yeah, we're going to call them all relatively big disappointments.
Speaker 1: Five through fourteen on this board performed at or like
Speaker 1: above expectations or even if we want to, you know,
Speaker 1: knock off the other two of Puka Engaineer Gibbs and
Speaker 1: just look at it like as a top twelve at
Speaker 1: or above expectations. So, knowing what we know now in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, would you prefer to have a first
Speaker 1: overall pick one or two even or a later pick
Speaker 1: that would allow you to draft another elite option at
Speaker 1: the turn? It's ee, let's go back to you here,
Speaker 1: so high pick or later pick to kind of stack
Speaker 1: some of the value that's going to be out there.
Speaker 2: I think it'd be okay with picking anywhere in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five. Like, I don't know if we can draw
Speaker 2: any firm conclusions about like which part of the draft
Speaker 2: was ideal to draft in. I think in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: four it was actually near the turn, which was where
Speaker 2: Jamir Gibbs and Saquon Barkley were going, you know, like
Speaker 2: AJ Brown, even Justin Jefferson was sliding towards the back
Speaker 2: half of the first round. In some drafts that turned
Speaker 2: out to be a pretty good spot. And there were
Speaker 2: a lot of landmines at the top with Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 2: and Tyreek Hill. But no two years are quite the same.
Speaker 2: Everyone likes to get one on one, one oh two.
Speaker 2: People are happy when when they draw those picks, and
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone's going to be complaining about having
Speaker 2: a chance to get Jamar Chase or Saquon Barkley next year.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean there's some some value to waiting
Speaker 2: too and double tapping with two pretty good, pretty good assets.
Speaker 1: But it sounds like you're not gonna let anything that
Speaker 1: happen this year. Wait where you pick in a first
Speaker 1: round Oka, eric'son, same question. I would even I don't
Speaker 1: know there's a semi argument to be like, I don't
Speaker 1: even think it's a question that last year the wheel
Speaker 1: was incredible to get like a Saquon and Jamier Gibbs,
Speaker 1: and I look at it this year it's kind of
Speaker 1: lined up similarly. Again, a guy like Jonathan Taylor is
Speaker 1: going to be floating around there, and we do see
Speaker 1: like these high end running backs. If I were to
Speaker 1: let what happened last year affect any roles of what
Speaker 1: I would want coming this year, I think the one
Speaker 1: thing would be like, boy, that lattery area ten eleven,
Speaker 1: twelve still looks really really good to last year. But ericson,
Speaker 1: that's me, What say you no effect whatsoever, or do
Speaker 1: you take any of the failures at the top and
Speaker 1: the hits at the bottom as a as a reference
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: I guess that's the way I'm looking at it. And
Speaker 4: this is something I talked about in my perfect Draft
Speaker 4: strategy heading into the twenty twenty four season, was make
Speaker 4: sure you're not drafting last year's winning team, because when
Speaker 4: you look at the top three picks from this past
Speaker 4: year's fantasy season, those are the best picks in the
Speaker 4: first round the year before. Christian McCaffrey, Tarry Kill, and
Speaker 4: Sebee Lamb. They were all in that first round conversation
Speaker 4: entering twenty twenty three drafts. They all smashed wherever you
Speaker 4: ended up getting them in the first round. Now, they
Speaker 4: weren't the top three picks, but Lamb I think was
Speaker 4: at the turn with Aman Ross, Saint Brown, Tyreek Hill
Speaker 4: was also a middle first round pick. McCaffrey wasn't the
Speaker 4: first running back, but he was still like in that
Speaker 4: four or five range, and then they all smashed and
Speaker 4: they all went one, two, three the next year. So
Speaker 4: that's kind of how I'm looking at this, where I
Speaker 4: just want to make sure that I'm not, and the
Speaker 4: player that comes to mind is a Sakuon. Right to me,
Speaker 4: it seems like twenty twenty four was the year of
Speaker 4: draft Saquon. You rush for two thousand yards, it was
Speaker 4: the perfect Like, I'm very skeptical he's gonna be able
Speaker 4: to do it again, and now he's gonna be the
Speaker 4: number one overall pick. So that concertains me about do
Speaker 4: I want to take one Barkley in twenty twenty five
Speaker 4: when he just had his best year ever in twenty
Speaker 4: twenty four. So that's something I just want to keep
Speaker 4: in mind. So that's kind of I'm approaching it so
Speaker 4: again because similar to fits, I'm not stringent to I
Speaker 4: have to draft here and I know it kind of
Speaker 4: feels warm and fuzzy where you're like, well, if I
Speaker 4: don't pick up the top, I can't mess it up, right,
Speaker 4: I'll just let the volume, I'll let the value fall
Speaker 4: to me. But I still really like Chase a lot, right,
Speaker 4: so I don't want to miss on an opportunity drive
Speaker 4: to mark Chase. I don't know where Bijeon is going
Speaker 4: to go necessarily, I really I'm really excited for Bijon,
Speaker 4: Like he could be my number one overall player, and
Speaker 4: if I don't have the number one overall pick, I
Speaker 4: might not get him if I don't have a top
Speaker 4: three pick, depending on where ADP shakes out. So I
Speaker 4: think for me, it's less about where I'm picking and
Speaker 4: where about who do I want and how and who
Speaker 4: can I get at the cheapest price. I know, heading
Speaker 4: into this year, I liked picking one oh four because
Speaker 4: I felt like I didn't really want to get lam
Speaker 4: McCaffrey or Hill, because I liked brise Chase and Beijeon
Speaker 4: more than those guys. So I was like, give me
Speaker 4: one oh four and I'll take one of those three guys.
Speaker 4: And that worked out, you know, for the most part,
Speaker 4: Excepfort in the case of Breeze Hall, but I feel
Speaker 4: like to see Bjeon.
Speaker 1: We're good, you want that again. I was sitting here
Speaker 1: thinking as you were talking, I'm like, man, if you
Speaker 1: get four, it's like you're going to get one of
Speaker 1: Jamar Saquon, Bijon or Jamiir Gibbs or Jefferson if you
Speaker 1: want to throw that in. I feel like one four
Speaker 1: is in that same territory, and I think it's fair
Speaker 1: to and rightfully you don't want to like just blindly
Speaker 1: be like, oh, well, the top four failed last year.
Speaker 1: I don't want to have a top four. It's based
Speaker 1: on what the player pool looks like. But you know,
Speaker 1: the trends are super interesting, and maybe the one big
Speaker 1: takeaway there is you have a better opportunity of not
Speaker 1: messing it up and have some high upside when you
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Speaker 1: Gentlemen, let's go to our third area here and let's
Speaker 1: talk about quarterbacks. Which approach to the quarterback position in
Speaker 1: draft likely paid off the most, grabbing an elite quarterback early,
Speaker 1: grabbing a mid tier option in the middle rounds, or
Speaker 1: building a strong roster led by one or two late
Speaker 1: round quarterbacks. This is kind of an open ended one
Speaker 1: because one could argue in some spots that later quarterback
Speaker 1: of one two could have been Jaden Daniels and somebody
Speaker 1: else in this same token. At the end of the
Speaker 1: draft season, we saw Jaden Daniels moving up to five.
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like Jaden Daniels owns this conversation
Speaker 1: and where we steer it. Except the next two quarterbacks
Speaker 1: which are inside the top fifteen mont rostered players were
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. So I mean those are
Speaker 1: some higher in quarterbacks in that top six, that higher tier.
Speaker 1: You're not seeing Joe Flaccos or anything like that. So Eric, soon,
Speaker 1: let's start with you on this one twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: to twenty five. What approach are you going to take?
Speaker 1: What lessons did we learn from this season on drafting
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the new year.
Speaker 4: I think it's still later on quarterback and I don't
Speaker 4: think it necessarily means oh, you got a draft quarterback
Speaker 4: in the double digit rounds. I think it means you
Speaker 4: want to get the last quarterback in those tiers of elite.
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson j I checked. He was QB four ADP,
Speaker 4: so he went behind Hurtz and Josh Allen and Mahomes.
Speaker 4: So even though you were drafting elite quarterback, you were
Speaker 4: getting the elite quarterback upside at the best price. Joe
Speaker 4: Burrow kind of following into that pocket passer. Well, he
Speaker 4: was cheaper than C. J. Stroud, right, So again you're
Speaker 4: still finding ways to get value with some of these
Speaker 4: quarterbacks by waiting, by being patient. If someone else wants
Speaker 4: to draft Lamar Jackson as the QB one overall, let
Speaker 4: them do it, and then okay, I'm going to adjust
Speaker 4: my strategy. I'm not going to go for that first
Speaker 4: tier of quarterback anymore. Or I'll let Josh Allen. If
Speaker 4: Josh Alla fall so the fourth quarterback like, then I
Speaker 4: will take him. So I think it's still trying to
Speaker 4: get value because with quarterbacks, we know that you know
Speaker 4: they touched the ball all the same, It's less about
Speaker 4: it's not about opportunity, it's about well how good is
Speaker 4: this guy? And then do they run? What's the offensive environment?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 4: And I thought this year in particular was such a
Speaker 4: smash for late round quarterback because I mean, my best
Speaker 4: team this year drafted Anthony Richardson. Bust. My team won
Speaker 4: because the drafted Jane Daniels. Like, so I got bailed
Speaker 4: out by following the late round quarterback approach because I
Speaker 4: knew Richardson was very volatile and it worked out for me.
Speaker 4: And then not even him, but Baker Mayfield. He was
Speaker 4: top five quarterback. Sam Darnold left for dead and he
Speaker 4: was still veiled after like a couple of weeks. Yeah,
Speaker 4: Jared Goff. So I still still think going after value
Speaker 4: is the best way. And that doesn't necessarily mean, hey,
Speaker 4: you have the draft quarterback with double rounds, Like, no
Speaker 4: draft your quarterback with a value proposition. Don't just oh,
Speaker 4: I got to take the first guy. I gotta get Lamar,
Speaker 4: I gotta get Josh Allen's Like No, there are so
Speaker 4: many pockets in every single draft where you can find
Speaker 4: value quarterback. So that's kind of my main takeaway is
Speaker 4: like you can still get value at this position while
Speaker 4: paying up for the skill position players a little bit
Speaker 4: more where the value doesn't necessarily seem so as obvious.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's well said. I think there's a
Speaker 1: couple of things in there. Jaden Daniels still floats because
Speaker 1: I don't think we can really talk about late round
Speaker 1: quarterback with Jaden Daniels because of how he ended up
Speaker 1: going like five and six at quarterbacks, so he kind
Speaker 1: of gets that mid tier. But you labeled a couple
Speaker 1: of the guys Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Darnald for a
Speaker 1: period of time, those were huge. Those were huge wins
Speaker 1: if you know you had made some investments in the
Speaker 1: wrong areas. But I will say, I take your value
Speaker 1: proposition to give me the cheapest best value of that
Speaker 1: middle to higher tier quarterback, and that was like a
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels or a Joe Burrow. They kind of sit
Speaker 1: in that area. I also don't want to spend the
Speaker 1: high end, but I don't know if I want to
Speaker 1: wait and hope that I hit on a Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: I like that middle area, but I'm not really sure
Speaker 1: anything's changed for me on that. Pat What say you,
Speaker 1: Is there anything different there? Is it all late late
Speaker 1: round or does that middle tier feel really good or
Speaker 1: do you want to just do that high investment on
Speaker 1: the Lamars and the Josh Allens.
Speaker 2: Ericson said it really well that we want to suss
Speaker 2: out value when we start to go through some drafts
Speaker 2: and see where quarterbacks are typically landing in those drafts.
Speaker 2: And Jaden Daniels was a terrific draft value this year.
Speaker 2: We knew he was going to provide that rushing value,
Speaker 2: and I do think we want to be mindful of
Speaker 2: rushing value in a lot of cases. I mean, I
Speaker 2: hate to say it, but I would think that Anthony
Speaker 2: Richardson might be a draft value next year because a
Speaker 2: lot of people are going to be totally out on
Speaker 2: him and he still has that rushing value. And yes,
Speaker 2: the passing output is going to be really inconsistent and
Speaker 2: troublesome at times, but man, I think he's going to
Speaker 2: be Unlike this year where he turned out to not
Speaker 2: be a value at his draft cost, I think next
Speaker 2: year there's a good chance he could be. And I
Speaker 2: know he doesn't run a lot. I'm thinking Dak Prescott
Speaker 2: could be a value for twenty twenty five as a
Speaker 2: guy who is playing on a team that's probably going
Speaker 2: to add and already has one of the best receivers
Speaker 2: in football, is probably going to add another pass catcher,
Speaker 2: and has a defense that seems to be headed in
Speaker 2: the wrong direction, might have to play a lot of
Speaker 2: shootouts next year, and plus a guy who's just going
Speaker 2: to be sort of out of sight, out of mind
Speaker 2: for a lot of people after missing most of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four. So yes, I think we are looking for
Speaker 2: value and we're looking for running ability. But that's the thing.
Speaker 2: Like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are awesome, and they're
Speaker 2: probably going to continue to be awesome. But do I
Speaker 2: want to spend a late second or early third round
Speaker 2: pick on them? Not really?
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the pairing might be good too. You know,
Speaker 1: if you have any type of inherent risk and you
Speaker 1: can go later, you could have taken a Baker Mayfield
Speaker 1: help Bryce Young might be a good quarterback for the
Speaker 1: next season as well as far as the value goes.
Speaker 1: We have been talking about some rookies, so we're going
Speaker 1: to have a rookie conversation this one. We're going to
Speaker 1: maybe focus a little bit more on the pass catchers.
Speaker 1: Let's save that other position for the next question. Of
Speaker 1: the top ten players on championship rosters. Four of the
Speaker 1: top ten overall are rookies. We've talked about Jaden Daniels,
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas McMillan, and Neighbors. Neighbors also is someone we
Speaker 1: haven't talked about. Those four of the top ten making
Speaker 1: it as the most roster players. By the way we
Speaker 1: scrolled down, you guys know you looked at the data,
Speaker 1: you start to see more. Lad Mconkey is down there.
Speaker 1: There's handfuls of more. There's a couple other rookie wide receivers.
Speaker 1: So the question is, does this make you feel even
Speaker 1: more comfortable drafting rookies high in your fantasy drafts in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five? But I want to get throw a
Speaker 1: caveot at you. The top dog, Marvin Harrison, big fat,
Speaker 1: stinky failure couldn't be a bigger failure from a fantasy perspective,
Speaker 1: especially comparative to all those other guys. So you guys
Speaker 1: both have already kind of stated you know you're into
Speaker 1: your to rookies and it's more of a reason to
Speaker 1: draft rookies, specifically pass catches. You can throw tight ends
Speaker 1: in this as well. Rock Bouer is one of those
Speaker 1: guys on those rosters up up on the list. Does
Speaker 1: this year make you feel more confident in drafting your
Speaker 1: pass catching rookies for next year, even though the number
Speaker 1: one guy was a failure?
Speaker 2: Pat Big No, because this is not the caliber the
Speaker 2: wide receiver class that we had last year. Last year's
Speaker 2: wide receiver class was very extraordinary, and I think we
Speaker 2: knew that coming in this year's wide receiver class, Murkier,
Speaker 2: there's some top end talent like Ted McMillan. I think
Speaker 2: everyone loves a prospect, and a lot of people are
Speaker 2: going to like Luther Burden and Mecca Egbuka, and I
Speaker 2: think those guys are probably going to be first round
Speaker 2: picks in the NFL Draft. But we don't have the
Speaker 2: top end talent or the depth of the class of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four coming to us in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: So I think we have to pump the brakes a
Speaker 2: little bit on this rookie class. There's still gonna be
Speaker 2: some guys we like, and by the way, whilsh I
Speaker 2: do have to take exception with the idea that Marvin
Speaker 2: Harrison is like a huge failure relative to expectations, And
Speaker 2: I think just because the second round of twenty twenty
Speaker 2: four drafts was so confusing. I feel like Marvin Harrison
Speaker 2: sort of got pushed into that range relative to his
Speaker 2: draft cost. A disappointment, absolutely, But then you look and
Speaker 2: see that his rookie numbers were eerily similar to those
Speaker 2: of his Hall of Fame dad, and no one was
Speaker 2: like dismissing his dad after year one. So yeah, also
Speaker 2: a little disappointing when you compare him to some of
Speaker 2: the other rookies who hit the ground running the leak
Speaker 2: neighbors Brian Thomas, Lad McConkie. But I'm not totally out
Speaker 2: on Marvin Harrison Junior. I just clearly a disappointment for
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, yes, but like as far as a failure,
Speaker 2: I don't know about that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I of greed to disagree like he
Speaker 1: I mean, like, where's he being drafted this coming year?
Speaker 1: He was second round? Do you think he's gonna be
Speaker 1: inside the top ten round?
Speaker 2: Oh? Top ten rounds? Yes? Or like eight?
Speaker 1: Like what round? Give me a round?
Speaker 2: Probably like five or six?
Speaker 1: I mean, then that's that's not that big ericson do
Speaker 1: you think that's around where Marvin goes five or six?
Speaker 4: I think he'd be higher to be honest, I mean, pump,
Speaker 4: we pumped this guy. I mean I think that Fits
Speaker 4: hit the nail on the head, Like it's our fault,
Speaker 4: it's the Royal Leies fault that he was a bust
Speaker 4: because we put him in the first round, at the
Speaker 4: end of the first round, second round. And this is
Speaker 4: something that I've gone back to. I'm looking at fantasy
Speaker 4: football receivers to avoid. It's the guy that gets the
Speaker 4: most hype that has yet to actually break out at
Speaker 4: the NFL level is the guy the busts every single year.
Speaker 4: And Marvin Harrison checked that box off when I was
Speaker 4: writing about him as a fantasy football wide receiver to avoid,
Speaker 4: right next to Eco Collins, which I was totally wrong about.
Speaker 4: But that was the red flag.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 4: It wasn't even about him again. Look at his final
Speaker 4: stot line sixty two catches, eight hundred and eighty five yards,
Speaker 4: eight touchdowns. You're like, oh, that's like pretty good for rookie, Well,
Speaker 4: not a rookie that you draft. And I know Fits
Speaker 4: brought up comparing to his dad. His dad also wasn't
Speaker 4: a fringe verse round pick in fantasy as our rookie, right,
Speaker 4: So like that's why it's warped the perception of Marvin
Speaker 4: Harrison as a because yeah, he killed you where you
Speaker 4: drafted him. Because we should not have been pushing him
Speaker 4: up there. Why why was he he should have been
Speaker 4: going where Milik Neighbors was going? Because you look about.
Speaker 1: Would that have been better though? If he if he
Speaker 1: if he went where my Melik Neighbors or you would
Speaker 1: you would feel more confident that, like, this wasn't a
Speaker 1: bust of a season.
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent. I think it would have been
Speaker 4: way different because imagine if you because drafting the rookie
Speaker 4: that high, well, if you'd done if you had drafted
Speaker 4: Brian Thomas Junior instead of Marvin Harrison at the one
Speaker 4: two turn, you would have looked like a genius right
Speaker 4: when it all said and done, Like people have been like,
Speaker 4: what are you doing? It's like we put the wrong
Speaker 4: rookie there. And that just goes back to when we're
Speaker 4: hyping up these unproven players to an extent where it
Speaker 4: was almost impossible for him to meet expectations because we
Speaker 4: put them so high on the certain players. So I
Speaker 4: think that ties back to my lesson learned. Well, besides,
Speaker 4: like the hyped up rookie or any receiver or anything.
Speaker 4: I'm kind of taking Harrison just not even being a rookie,
Speaker 4: just the fact he was just an over hyped wide
Speaker 4: receiver in a brand new situation with a new quarterback
Speaker 4: we've never seen him play with before. I think that
Speaker 4: was an aggressive leap of faith. But it goes back
Speaker 4: to when it comes to rookies, especially pass catchers, you
Speaker 4: want the discount, right, that's the whole point. That's why
Speaker 4: we love rookies because you can get them later on
Speaker 4: because they're unproven. But with Marvin Harrison Junior, that wasn't
Speaker 4: ever part of the conversation, which is why I always argued,
Speaker 4: why draft Harrison when you can get the same rookie
Speaker 4: upside with league neighbors in round four with Brian Thomas
Speaker 4: Junior and round seven with Lat McConkie, and like that's
Speaker 4: that was always my argument. So when rookies get priced
Speaker 4: so expensively, well you're losing on half of the value
Speaker 4: of a rookie, and that's because they're cheaper because they're unproven.
Speaker 4: So those are that's kind of like my main takeaway
Speaker 4: when it comes to the Harrison thing. Now I'm just
Speaker 4: looking him as a rookie, but just as an overpriced
Speaker 4: wide receiver in general. I think that was more of
Speaker 4: his problem, not that he was a first year player.
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah, I mean he finished forty second in
Speaker 1: points per game half PPR wide receiver, so that's still
Speaker 1: not I mean, it's not horrible. So maybe like me
Speaker 1: saying it's a big fat failure isn't as fair. But
Speaker 1: it's forty second, so that's still not super great. To
Speaker 1: your guys's point, it's hard when you compare like the
Speaker 1: old Marvin Harrison and then now take that old Marvin
Speaker 1: Harrison have a bunch of Jerry Rice's around him. It's
Speaker 1: like Brian Thomas and Malik Neighbors, like all these guys
Speaker 1: are these huge, big, you know, stars that produce big
Speaker 1: This wasn't really meant to be a Marvin Harrison thing.
Speaker 1: More in that, like you know, there is inherent risk
Speaker 1: and maybe the real conversation of this is the overpaying
Speaker 1: price of any of those rookies like Marvin. Like you
Speaker 1: guys should both said. Malik Neighbors benefit. Brian Thomas was
Speaker 1: a huge benefit. Think about where Brock Bauers is going
Speaker 1: relative to him. The excitement that we build up we
Speaker 1: built up. Let him fail. But I would also say, like,
Speaker 1: I guess that was fine of a season, But forty
Speaker 1: two at wide receiver is worse than all of those
Speaker 1: other rookie wide receivers. So and there might be, by
Speaker 1: the way, there might be a guy or two in
Speaker 1: this that, like I see one name, so let's call
Speaker 1: him forty one, that shouldn't count. But from a per
Speaker 1: game standpoint, like he was well under them, that is
Speaker 1: going to lead us to a nice, more fun big
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Speaker 1: let's go back to rookies again. A funny other thing
Speaker 1: I want to add with Marvin Harrison that is, more
Speaker 1: to your guys's point in total points twenty ninth a
Speaker 1: wide receiver in half PPR, So that might be a
Speaker 1: little bit more benefit to what you guys are talking
Speaker 1: about as well. For the Marvin Harrison argument, much lower
Speaker 1: in per game, lots of guys that didn't end up playing.
Speaker 1: He did end up being like at least a wide
Speaker 1: receiver three. But what we did not talk about there
Speaker 1: were running backs. We saw no running backs on that list,
Speaker 1: not even Sniffin remotely close. Does Ashton genty buck this trend.
Speaker 1: This is actually going right up against the fear of
Speaker 1: what you guys were both talking about. FITZI, you and
Speaker 1: I did a show with Jake Seely talking about the
Speaker 1: first round and Jake put gent in this. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna ask you, we saw no running backs last year.
Speaker 1: Running Back can be fickle, especially from a rookie standpoint,
Speaker 1: but sometimes these guys do do that Ericson. Let's start
Speaker 1: with you on this. Do you think Genty is going
Speaker 1: to buck the trend or is he setting up to
Speaker 1: be the next Marvin Harrison.
Speaker 4: Well, I would want to point out that, and I
Speaker 4: should have mentioned this when we're talking about Harrison, that
Speaker 4: rookie receivers are different rook running backs, Like, I think
Speaker 4: that's very I mean, Marvin Harris Junior was the most
Speaker 4: expensive rookie receiver ever in fantasy football. Like again, going
Speaker 4: back there, that's true, how ludicrous his price was on
Speaker 4: draft day. That's not the case with the rookie running
Speaker 4: I mean, we've seen rookie running backs dropped in Sakwon, Markley,
Speaker 4: e Isaical Elliott, Bijon Robinson. Now again, he didn't pay
Speaker 4: off his rookie ADP when he was like a top
Speaker 4: five pick, but he wasn't like, oh my god, this
Speaker 4: was the worst pick I ever made. Where Marvin Harris
Speaker 4: you definitely felt that a lot more than when you
Speaker 4: drafted Bijon in twenty twenty three. So now, I mean,
Speaker 4: if he gets the ideal landing spot like and just
Speaker 4: to the running class in general, we got to remember
Speaker 4: Lash's running class was terrible. It was not a good
Speaker 4: in the act. I mean, Jonathan Brooks was the first
Speaker 4: guy draft and he was injured right like like that.
Speaker 4: It's like like five plays exactly. So we really got
Speaker 4: like one major hit and it was Bucky Irving. And
Speaker 4: again he was a guy that was a Day three pick,
Speaker 4: and he carved out a big role in the Buccaneers offense.
Speaker 4: They went away from White. You had a good schedule,
Speaker 4: and he smashed down the stretch. This year's class is
Speaker 4: way different, so it's kind of the opposite. Where last
Speaker 4: year's rookie class very good at the receivers, not so
Speaker 4: much of the running backs. You're kind of getting the
Speaker 4: opposite here, so we got to adjust accordingly. We can't
Speaker 4: just copy and paste, well, all the rookie receivers were
Speaker 4: really good twenty twenty four, let's draft them all again
Speaker 4: really aggressively. Not necessarily the case. In the same thing
Speaker 4: with the running backs, where last year's class we knew
Speaker 4: going in, hey, this isn't as good as a class
Speaker 4: as we usually tend to see, and not as good
Speaker 4: as at least from my limited knowledge of looking at
Speaker 4: these potential prospects, that this twenty twenty five rookie running
Speaker 4: back class is much better. I'm sure that Fits can
Speaker 4: probably shed some more light on that as well.
Speaker 1: FITZI, what do you think is GENTI this year's Marvin Harrison,
Speaker 1: and that is from a not meeting the expectation if
Speaker 1: he goes in the first round.
Speaker 2: No, I think whoever drafts him is going to do
Speaker 2: so intending for him to be a workhorse running back,
Speaker 2: whether it's Dallas the Chargers. He's going to come in
Speaker 2: and have a heavy load right away, and I think
Speaker 2: he's going to be as good as advertised. So I
Speaker 2: don't think he's going to be a trap. But this
Speaker 2: running back class goes way beyond Ashton. Genty and Ericson
Speaker 2: nailed it. Like the class of twenty twenty four at
Speaker 2: running back not that good. This class is an absolute
Speaker 2: candy store. It's going to involuntarily retire a lot of
Speaker 2: fringy veteran running backs. It is deep, it is really talented,
Speaker 2: and I think people should take advantage of sort of
Speaker 2: the fog that's created by this volume of the excellent
Speaker 2: RB prospects, and they're going to be guys who slide
Speaker 2: through the cracks into the double digit round rounds in
Speaker 2: fantasy drafts. Jump on these Devin Neil types who people
Speaker 2: are going to be paying attention to genty as well
Speaker 2: as guys like you know, the the Ohio State duo
Speaker 2: with quinch On Judkins Traveon Henderson. But like it's so
Speaker 2: much more than that, and people should be willing to,
Speaker 2: you know, look deeper, because I think they're going to
Speaker 2: be like close to twenty really interesting running backs coming
Speaker 2: out of this class. Like it's that deep.
Speaker 1: And if you were not already following FITZI, you need
Speaker 1: to make sure to lock in because you get Fitsy
Speaker 1: is locked in and he is going to school you
Speaker 1: on all these guys, So make sure you are ready
Speaker 1: to get it, because we are not going to take
Speaker 1: last year's prospect running back class over to this year.
Speaker 1: As you said, it looks like there's going to be
Speaker 1: a lot more value and maybe a guy or two
Speaker 1: that's going to pop up on a championship team.
Speaker 2: And by the way, if I can do some cross
Speaker 2: promotion Welsh this week on our Dynasty show, our mutual
Speaker 2: friends Scott Bogman and I are going to be doing
Speaker 2: a pretty deep dive with Ryan Wormley on this year's
Speaker 2: rookie class. So anyone who wants to learn more about
Speaker 2: the Class of twenty twenty five for fantasy, might want
Speaker 2: to check out that show.
Speaker 4: Make sure you chet it extra credit with bogs and tits.
Speaker 1: That's right after the class Ooh, actually that's right. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's not detention, not detention. If I bring up Marvin
Speaker 1: Harrison again, I'm going to go into detention. But that one,
Speaker 1: that one is a good one.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: Let's go to number six on this list, tight end scarcity.
Speaker 1: So this is going to get Fitzy rolling again. Here
Speaker 1: did tight end scarcity matter? How did the top tight
Speaker 1: ends and eightyp perform and impact fantasy rosters this year overall?
Speaker 1: You know, to your point, I said chock and you
Speaker 1: were right. McBride was the chalk tight end, but Bowers wasn't.
Speaker 1: Bowers ended up just like quickly became like the number
Speaker 1: one guy. So you had a value tight end with
Speaker 1: huge upside. You had McBride at the top. We saw failure.
Speaker 1: I guess I'm maybe be careful about using the word failure,
Speaker 1: but we had like failure tight ends across the board
Speaker 1: on the back end that then leveled out. It was
Speaker 1: like all of a sudden, I was like, oh, TJ
Speaker 1: Hawkinson's like doing good and then like, you know, these
Speaker 1: guys were working but doing the late tight end thing
Speaker 1: didn't really feel well and didn't do good. So Fitzy,
Speaker 1: does tight end scarcity matter? And really that's just about
Speaker 1: your drafting next year? This maybe a better way to
Speaker 1: phrase this, and it was phrased was do you need
Speaker 1: to do the high high end tight end again?
Speaker 2: That's an interesting question. Whiles I had tricked myself in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four into thinking that there was depth at
Speaker 2: tight end, so that was a big whiff. We did
Speaker 2: not have unprecedented depth tight end because a number of
Speaker 2: guys we were counting on. We thought maybe we'd milk
Speaker 2: another good season out of Travis Kelcey, he kind of
Speaker 2: hit the wall. We thought Dalton Kincaid was an up
Speaker 2: and coming tight end to target didn't really work out.
Speaker 2: There were a lot of guys who kind of didn't
Speaker 2: really work out in that regard, but it was important
Speaker 2: to get the tight end position right. Bowers was absolutely
Speaker 2: a right answer because he was going tight end eleven
Speaker 2: in ADP McBride I think was going tight end four
Speaker 2: and was worth that draft position and more. And George
Speaker 2: Kittle I had made the point back in August. Kittle
Speaker 2: is like seemingly never overdrafted and often underdrafted, and all
Speaker 2: the guy does, it's like they're gonna be games where
Speaker 2: he is asked to block a lot and doesn't run
Speaker 2: as many routes and maybe only sees three or four targets,
Speaker 2: and there are gonna be times when he gets hurt.
Speaker 2: He's got kind of a check in an injury history. But
Speaker 2: Kittle also every season gives you a bunch of smash weeks,
Speaker 2: and I think it's more important to focus on the
Speaker 2: smash weeks that he gives you rather than like tight
Speaker 2: ends are. They're duds all over the place, and you
Speaker 2: can overcome a four or five point tight end week,
Speaker 2: but there aren't many tight ends who can give you
Speaker 2: the fifteen to twenty twenty five point weeks, and George
Speaker 2: Kittle can do that. So I think he's going to
Speaker 2: continue to be one of those right answers. But do
Speaker 2: we focus exclusively on high end tight ends next year.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I want to. I kind of want
Speaker 2: to find the right answers for twenty twenty five, and
Speaker 2: I don't know if those are automatically going to be
Speaker 2: at the top of the ADP list of.
Speaker 1: The position, Erickson, do you think that the lack of
Speaker 1: depth at tight end this year is justified to carry
Speaker 1: over next year that will then in turn be wanting
Speaker 1: to draft higher tight ends or do you think again,
Speaker 1: this is another thing where it's like we just can't
Speaker 1: take over what it was last year, and there may
Speaker 1: be are good values because of the tight end position
Speaker 1: did kind of find itself at the back end of
Speaker 1: the year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the
Speaker 4: Mark Andrews season, where like he looked like the biggest
Speaker 4: bust at the position and then he somehow was just
Speaker 4: scored a bunch of touchdowns, ended up finishing as a
Speaker 4: top five tight end, but it didn't really feel like that.
Speaker 4: And again, he was one of my guys I was
Speaker 4: drafting a ton of so like the beginning of the
Speaker 4: season was it was an absolute wreck. So I felt
Speaker 4: terrible about that, but then it turned things around.
Speaker 1: That's a fantasy thing too. By the way, I need
Speaker 1: to cut you off. I just wanted to throw this out.
Speaker 1: That's totally like my Marvin Harrison thing too, like the
Speaker 1: feel of Andrew's same thing. I had Andrews on way
Speaker 1: too many teams. The feel early on was like, boy,
Speaker 1: I made a big mistake, but then you know, like
Speaker 1: it really found itself and then it kind of came together.
Speaker 1: There are some of those players that, regardless of what
Speaker 1: the end result was, they had that feel they carried
Speaker 1: on all season. That is definitely those two Harrison and Andrews
Speaker 1: would be those. But yeah, please continue on on the
Speaker 1: tight ends and Andrews and all that.
Speaker 4: So I was looking back at my notes about avoiding
Speaker 4: tight ends and really, if you don't want to deal
Speaker 4: with the head, like, you just can't draft an early guy,
Speaker 4: like because the bus rates for these guys are so
Speaker 4: much higher where the early round tight ends that really
Speaker 4: felt like hits were. It was really like McBride, right,
Speaker 4: and even he was kind of like, is this guy
Speaker 4: ever gonna score a touchdown?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 4: So even the guy that you felt like hit was
Speaker 4: kind of like a double not even really a home run.
Speaker 4: The home run was brock Bowers, and that's because he
Speaker 4: was also a late roun tight end. He also being
Speaker 4: elite tight end Johnny Smith top five tight end. He
Speaker 4: was free. You could have picked him up off the
Speaker 4: way where you had been swimming in the tight end goodness.
Speaker 4: So I still think that, yes, if you can pinpoint
Speaker 4: the right guy early on, and that seems like it's
Speaker 4: probably just gonna be Bowers from here on out. But
Speaker 4: besides him, there are risks in fact, because with all
Speaker 4: these early round tight ends where if they don't fire
Speaker 4: like they're gonna bust, they're gonna bust hard and they're
Speaker 4: gonna hurt you. And the thing that is the toughest
Speaker 4: thing about it, and this goes from my roster management standpoint,
Speaker 4: it was impossible to like gold Mark Andrews. That's why
Speaker 4: I had him on all my teams because I invested
Speaker 4: so highly. And I'm think I see a month of
Speaker 4: him playing like I can't quit on him now, but
Speaker 4: like Isaiah, likely he's breaking out. What do I do?
Speaker 4: But because you invest it, you're like, I can't, I
Speaker 4: can't cut him to just drop for Isaiah, Like you're
Speaker 4: gonna be bouncing back and forth, You're gonna be dealing
Speaker 4: with that headache. So I've kind of come to the
Speaker 4: conclusion where it's like, if I don't want to deal
Speaker 4: with it, I'm happy to miss out on next year's trade. McBride,
Speaker 4: whoever that may be, but that means I avoid the
Speaker 4: Travis Kelsey's, the Laportas, the Dalton kin Kaid's, the Kyle Pitts,
Speaker 4: Like I don't have to sweat that, Like I'm not
Speaker 4: worried about that at all, and I'll just roll with Okay,
Speaker 4: maybe I'll stream Disley or I'll pick up John hu Smith.
Speaker 4: So I think late round titan always has a place,
Speaker 4: especially with you know, guys get hurt and Titans take
Speaker 4: on bigger roles when there are a lot of injuries.
Speaker 4: So I don't expect receivers to get hurt as much
Speaker 4: as they did this year. But I think late run
Speaker 4: tight end is always the approach to me that is
Speaker 4: going to be the safest and lead away from bus.
Speaker 4: Now you might miss again, like I said, like you'll
Speaker 4: miss on the McBride, But more often than not tight ends,
Speaker 4: I mean we all get frustrated by the position, like
Speaker 4: they usually let you down. When it's all said and done,
Speaker 4: you're justual get disappointed anyway, so don't pay for it.
Speaker 2: And by the way, John Wu was one of the
Speaker 2: there were four right answers at tight end this year,
Speaker 2: Bowers McBride, Kittle and John U and John who was
Speaker 2: a free agent in most leagues, and John Wu I
Speaker 2: think was the fourth most frequently rostered tight end on
Speaker 2: championship teams behind those Big three. So you can still
Speaker 2: do it opportunistically at tight end and make it work.
Speaker 1: He was He was available for way too long too.
Speaker 1: I remember us continuously talking about him. Well, we got
Speaker 1: a tight end giveaway another guy that you got late
Speaker 1: in drafts because there was an injury you could have
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Speaker 1: ones here, little lightning round ish. As we finish off
Speaker 1: with our lessons, you know Bell's about to ring here,
Speaker 1: so let's get through these. Twenty twenty four did not
Speaker 1: have a lot of league winning waiver wire pickups. I
Speaker 1: guess the first question is is this an avarition? And
Speaker 1: I think that's kind of impossible to even know because
Speaker 1: it's subjective. But I will put out here that the
Speaker 1: only three that I could come up with, and you
Speaker 1: guys might be able to identify better using this list
Speaker 1: going through the top four of most rostered players on Championship,
Speaker 1: I think the three big waiver wire pickups this year
Speaker 1: were McMillan, Bucky Irving, and Adam Feeling. Those are and
Speaker 1: Bucky Irving being the most dramatic one. I think you
Speaker 1: guys did your award show he was like the number
Speaker 1: one waiver wire pickup unanimously obviously. But those are the
Speaker 1: only three guys I really could identify. Maybe we could
Speaker 1: pick another guy or two here, but you know, do
Speaker 1: you think that changes what happened this past year in
Speaker 1: your approach at all as far as aggressiveness waiting a
Speaker 1: little bit longer. You know, the year before it was
Speaker 1: you had to be aggressive in week one for Poka.
Speaker 1: This year that didn't really exist. Ericson, let's start with you.
Speaker 1: Any change to fab this coming year, knowing what we
Speaker 1: know now now.
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I think I think this year
Speaker 4: was an apparition. Like you said, where I mean all
Speaker 4: the receivers. A lot more receivers got hurt, the running backs,
Speaker 4: and what happens is when Chris Godwin goes down like
Speaker 4: Jalen McMillan, doesn't become Chris Godwin the next week. That's
Speaker 4: just that's not how it works. But at running back, oh,
Speaker 4: that is much more likely how it works. And because
Speaker 4: you saw less running backs go down with season ending injuries. Again,
Speaker 4: Jordan Mason feels like he needs to recognized in some way,
Speaker 4: shape or form. But because his stuff was off front loaded,
Speaker 4: he didn't help you win championships, but he helped a
Speaker 4: lot of people recover from drafting. Christan mcaffey why number
Speaker 4: one overall. So had that happened in the second half
Speaker 4: of the season, we would be praising Jordan Mason, and
Speaker 4: that's usually what happens. Running Backs usually get hurt in
Speaker 4: the second half, not in the first half, and then
Speaker 4: come back. So and similar to Adam feelin right, a
Speaker 4: veteran receiver misses the first half of the season and
Speaker 4: then comes back. So a lot of weird things when
Speaker 4: it came to injuries. I think that we're going to
Speaker 4: go back to more of hey a lot into Fitz's point,
Speaker 4: and it was just like all melding in my mind, like, Yeah,
Speaker 4: the veteran running backs, they all stayed healthy for the
Speaker 4: majority of the season. The running back class was weak
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four, the week the class is not
Speaker 4: weak in twenty twenty five. Do all these veterans run
Speaker 4: it back with a full bill of health for another
Speaker 4: year with all these talented rookies breathing down their neck.
Speaker 4: I'm not so sure. So I think that this year
Speaker 4: is a little bit more of an aberration with the waiverwund.
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see more league winning running
Speaker 4: backs you can pick up due to injuries in twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five.
Speaker 1: If it's the anything applicable in the fab market that
Speaker 1: from this year, you would take over to next year.
Speaker 2: Ericson really nailed it. The running back and the lack
Speaker 2: of injuries was kind of an anomaly. It's never how
Speaker 2: that happened. So we did not see the running back
Speaker 2: market was more predictable than usual because of this, and
Speaker 2: normally we see guys seese on opportunities, and often running
Speaker 2: back value is as much about opportunity as it is
Speaker 2: about talent, and we did not see a lot of
Speaker 2: reserve running backs get that opportunity to shine and become
Speaker 2: hot pickup. So it made the zero RB strategy I
Speaker 2: think a little less effective this year because a lot
Speaker 2: of times the zero RB drafters who sort of fade
Speaker 2: that position are counting on some running back value to
Speaker 2: bubble up on waivers that they can seize on. There
Speaker 2: were just not a lot of opportunities to seize on
Speaker 2: valuable waiver wire running backs this year.
Speaker 1: All right? Do kickers and defense matter at the end
Speaker 1: when we look at this data? Funny enough, like defenses,
Speaker 1: Miami was in the top ten of overall championship teams,
Speaker 1: so that tells you, okay, you know Miami was there,
Speaker 1: But of the top three defenses, it's like Miami, the
Speaker 1: Colts and then the Eagles. Like from a draft perspective,
Speaker 1: there's one that you were really in on on the Eagles,
Speaker 1: but they were higher owned the kickers though. Kickers there
Speaker 1: are three kickers that are but they're all under ten
Speaker 1: percent owned across leagues. And it was like Aubrey Bates McLaughlin,
Speaker 1: like it wasn't the guy. It wasn't like a dramatic amount,
Speaker 1: like one kicker stood over the other, but they were
Speaker 1: all kind of lesser owned. So it's a tough question
Speaker 1: because kickers and defense, who's interested in I feel like
Speaker 1: more kickers disappointed this year than ever. It was crazy.
Speaker 1: I mean down to saying Gonzalez's bing that just got
Speaker 1: in did drafting or maybe highly investing in quick pickups
Speaker 1: of defenses and kickers matter fitsie.
Speaker 2: I mean streaming is the way to go. Defenses and
Speaker 2: kickers are wildly unpredictable, not only year year, but week
Speaker 2: to week. The Colts were a popular streaming target for
Speaker 2: people at the end of the season. I think was
Speaker 2: a week sixteen when they played the Giants. Everyone picked
Speaker 2: up and played the Colts and they scored negative four
Speaker 2: points and Drew Locke torched the Colts defense. Whereas the
Speaker 2: Dolphins were a popular championship defense. They had a lay
Speaker 2: up matchup against the Browns in Championship Week, didn't even smash,
Speaker 2: just came through with twelve points. But a lot of
Speaker 2: teams that weren't championship games had them and thus won titles.
Speaker 2: That it makes the Dolphins look like they were some
Speaker 2: elite defense. They weren't. Johnny on the Spot stream defenses
Speaker 2: and be you know, one of the last people in
Speaker 2: your draft to draft a kicker.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I completely forgot about that Colts thing, Like
Speaker 1: that was the I've never seen so many people tweeting
Speaker 1: about a defense losing them a championship in my life,
Speaker 1: Like I couldn't imagine being a human being that tweets
Speaker 1: about that publicly, Like you're crying about a defense losing you.
Speaker 1: But I forgot that that happened. So it was big
Speaker 1: ericson same thing. Kickers in defense, what do you think extreme?
Speaker 4: I mean, if you drafted the first kicker, you probably
Speaker 4: took Justin Tucker and he was horrible, Like like the
Speaker 4: end comes from all these kickers. It's it's not worth it.
Speaker 4: In defenses, it's all about matchups, right, Like you could
Speaker 4: have drafted the Seahawks defense to start the year, and
Speaker 4: then you shift to somebody else, You shift to somebody else,
Speaker 4: and you end up on the Dolphins and Colts to
Speaker 4: win your league. So I think it's I think it's honestly,
Speaker 4: it's kind of like freeing to be like, I'm not
Speaker 4: tied down to a defense. I can just cut and
Speaker 4: drop and do as ever as I please, and I
Speaker 4: don't have to make these Oh should I roster two defenses? No?
Speaker 4: Like bye, I personally have no allegiance to any defense.
Speaker 4: I ride the hot hand and then immediately once they
Speaker 4: face a good quarterback, I'm like goodbye.
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, last two quick ones. Who is the
Speaker 1: biggest steal relative to their draft costs in twenty twenty four?
Speaker 1: And where are you drafting them in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 1: They give you relative to this data or anything. But
Speaker 1: we talked about ADPs, We've talked about champion Chip rosters.
Speaker 1: Biggest steal and where where are you drafting Bucky Irving?
Speaker 1: Is what I'm trying to ask you. But no, you
Speaker 1: can put your own player if you want in there.
Speaker 1: But it's always but it's Bucky to me. But FITZI,
Speaker 1: let's start with you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was Bucky because he went largely undrafted. I
Speaker 2: was looking at his ADP last night. It was anywhere
Speaker 2: from running back fifty to a running back fifty five
Speaker 2: depending on the source. So in twelve team leagues with
Speaker 2: eighteen player rosters, he was real marginal as to whether
Speaker 2: he would be drafted at all. So I'm drafting him
Speaker 2: probably top half of the second round.
Speaker 1: All right, ericson biggest steal from this past year, and
Speaker 1: where are you drafting him now?
Speaker 4: I won't say any rookies because we kind of talked
Speaker 4: about them already. So two veteran players, Jacksonith and Jigba.
Speaker 4: He was like around. I mean, he was a really
Speaker 4: light pig and he obviously smashed and of course I
Speaker 4: liked drafting him, and then I traded him away before
Speaker 4: I could benefit from any of his greatness. So that
Speaker 4: was very said. And then the other guy's Chase Brown.
Speaker 4: I mean, if he gets this RB one role, I
Speaker 4: mean he's like a CHRISI. McCaffrey level workload that they
Speaker 4: gave him. We'll see what ends up shaken out. But
Speaker 4: even if they bring in the draft somebody and it's
Speaker 4: not someone that we should be threatened by I mean
Speaker 4: Chase Brown mighty being of value because because there may
Speaker 4: be a market that is scared off of potential competition,
Speaker 4: but the upside of his role, I mean, he could
Speaker 4: be the number one running back based on his role
Speaker 4: in the Bengals offense. So I think that both these
Speaker 4: guys are probably going to be in that round two
Speaker 4: to three conversation. And I think that's the price you're
Speaker 4: gonna have to pay to get Smith and Jigba and
Speaker 4: Chase Brown.
Speaker 1: Final question, it kind of ties back to the very top.
Speaker 1: We looked at the all you know Championship roster team
Speaker 1: and we kind of talked about what was the standout,
Speaker 1: especially the guys that made the roster. Now based on
Speaker 1: all the data that we have, how and what specific position,
Speaker 1: if any, would your general draft strategy change based on
Speaker 1: the data that we saw. Would it be not gonna
Speaker 1: be defense because we talked about streaming, but you know,
Speaker 1: we saw what happened with the tight ends, wide receivers,
Speaker 1: running backs, quarterback. Based on the championship data of who
Speaker 1: made it everything that we've talked about ericson, we'll start
Speaker 1: with you, is there a position that will have any
Speaker 1: change whatsoever? Based off of what we've talked about today
Speaker 1: and what we saw in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4: So quarterback is still late round for me. I think
Speaker 4: wide receivers are going to fall in drafts this year
Speaker 4: because of the RB renaissance we saw this past season.
Speaker 4: Tight ends again, if you don't want to draft the headache,
Speaker 4: then just wait on the position. From a strategy standpoint,
Speaker 4: running back is kind of my big takeaway here, and
Speaker 4: it's still that I want to go here RB no
Speaker 4: matter what. I can never be a firm zero RB
Speaker 4: draft because that means I'll never get ja Beer Gibbs,
Speaker 4: I'll never draft Seguon Barkley, I'll never offer the opportunity
Speaker 4: to draft a ultimate cheat code running back if I
Speaker 4: go full blown zero RB. Because yes, a lot of
Speaker 4: high scoring running backs come in the late rounds. You know,
Speaker 4: they also come in the first round of the draft
Speaker 4: with like with the obvious picks, so I always want
Speaker 4: to get exposure to those players. It didn't work with
Speaker 4: Breese Hall this year, but yeah, rounds one and two
Speaker 4: still have the best running backs they're going. They're going
Speaker 4: that high for a reason. I always want to get
Speaker 4: exposed to those guys, So That's why I always like
Speaker 4: to hear RB strategy, and I'll continue to deploy it
Speaker 4: in in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: You're allowed to say running back as well, but any
Speaker 1: position based off of all the data from a strategy standpoint,
Speaker 1: that might be altered, even just a tiny bit or
Speaker 1: significantly in twenty twenty five, I.
Speaker 2: Think I'm going to be more willing to go early
Speaker 2: round tight end than I have been in the past.
Speaker 2: I've been traditionally a dumpster diver at that position, and
Speaker 2: to see Brock Powers do what he did playing most
Speaker 2: of this season at age twenty one with one of
Speaker 2: the worst quarterback situations in the league. I don't think
Speaker 2: I ever took Travis Kelcey in the first round of
Speaker 2: a fantasy draft. I actually might be willing to take
Speaker 2: Brock Powers at the end of the first round this year.
Speaker 1: Well, class dismissed from your two professors, Andrew Erickson, Pat
Speaker 1: fitz Morris, lessons learned from this crazy season using some
Speaker 1: fun data, looking back at ADPs talking about positional stuff.
Speaker 1: You got it covered. I believe Fitzi's got an article
Speaker 1: on this that is probably going to already be out
Speaker 1: by the time this is airing, So if you want
Speaker 1: to get more of his internal thoughts kind of on
Speaker 1: a lot of this stuff, make sure you're tuned into
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros throughout the off season. FITZI is going into
Speaker 1: hyper overdrive, ericson and I we are always rocking. There's
Speaker 1: a bunch of great content, more podcasts for the draft season.
Speaker 1: We're already looking to the new year. Seally, myself and
Speaker 1: Fitz already looked at a projected first round. So Fantasy Pros,
Speaker 1: we got you covered, my friends, and hopefully we give
Speaker 1: you some opportunities to take advantage of the BP free.
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Speaker 1: know that TJ. Howkinson giveaway, So make sure you guys
Speaker 1: are locked in follow these boys on the social I'm
Speaker 1: Chris Well, So thank you so much for hanging out
Speaker 1: with us right here in Fantasy Pros and we will
Speaker 1: talk to you next time.
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