1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,560
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

2
00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,000
Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

3
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

4
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:15,600
Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

5
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:19,800
Speaker 3: We're growing in job spectacular.

6
00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,040
Speaker 2: I'm sitting. It's a cash touch.

7
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,360
Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go.

8
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:31,080
Speaker 3: To wind That's incredible. Big banks, small banks.

9
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,680
Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

10
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 2: ultimate kabine you want to pull.

11
00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,080
Speaker 3: And we are underway.

12
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,200
Speaker 2: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL Fantasy Flex episode

13
00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,880
Speaker 2: of the award winning Action Network podcast, presented by Bett NGM,

14
00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,280
Speaker 2: the official odds provider of the show. I am Matthew Friedman,

15
00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,160
Speaker 2: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and here with

16
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,720
Speaker 2: me are Shawn Corner and Chris Raybond Sewn is the

17
00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,640
Speaker 2: Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics, and Chris is a

18
00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:02,279
Speaker 2: senior editor and analysts at the Action Network. They are

19
00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,640
Speaker 2: too of the best fantasy football rankers in the world.

20
00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 2: This weekend we have the conference championships. We are just

21
00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,479
Speaker 2: two games away from the super Bowl, and in this episode,

22
00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,759
Speaker 2: we're highlighting the players at the top of our rankings

23
00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,520
Speaker 2: and the fantasy tool at Action Network we're discussing the

24
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:18,399
Speaker 2: guys we're high and low on and looking at how

25
00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,319
Speaker 2: they do in our Fantasy Labs models, and as always,

26
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 2: we are speculating on some player props. Gentlemen, let's get

27
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 2: into it. The three quarterbacks. I mean, is there even

28
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 2: any point at this point to talking about the three

29
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,280
Speaker 2: quarterbacks at the top of our rankings? I mean, really, Sean,

30
00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 2: who are you high on this week at the quarterback position.

31
00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,800
Speaker 5: I'm high on Josh Allen for many reasons, but as

32
00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,160
Speaker 5: price being one of them. He's sixty nine hundred at

33
00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,040
Speaker 5: DK this week. Last he's coming off of a floor performance.

34
00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,400
Speaker 5: He did just enough to beat Baltimore, but you know,

35
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,040
Speaker 5: hailing through for two hundred and six yards, one touchdown,

36
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,320
Speaker 5: no interceptions, and only ran seven times for three yards.

37
00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,400
Speaker 5: It could have been due to the win, plus that

38
00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,520
Speaker 5: you know, the Ravens offense wasn't doing much to force

39
00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,480
Speaker 5: the Bills to really have to throw much. So you know,

40
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 5: I figure this will be a ceiling type performance from

41
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,840
Speaker 5: Josh Allen and I will be all over here. But

42
00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,040
Speaker 5: like you said, the top three almost doesn't matter because

43
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,560
Speaker 5: we would just be talking about who's rank last in

44
00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,239
Speaker 5: that case. So you know it's a tough slate in

45
00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 5: matt regard, but I think you can't pass up Josh

46
00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:24,919
Speaker 5: Allen right here.

47
00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you there on Allen. He has the

48
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,919
Speaker 2: rushing ability that Rogers and Brady don't and Mahomes is

49
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,000
Speaker 2: uncertain with the toe and heead injuries. So ALAN really

50
00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,320
Speaker 2: feel was like the guy I would want in this spot. Raybond,

51
00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 2: who are you high on?

52
00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,040
Speaker 3: First? I have a question for Sean.

53
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:41,880
Speaker 6: You said you like Josh Allen because of his price

54
00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 6: at sixty nine hundred. If his price was seven or

55
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:46,720
Speaker 6: sixty eight, would you like him as much?

56
00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,880
Speaker 5: Well, I have ranked number one, so he have to

57
00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,680
Speaker 5: be priced much much better. Yeah.

58
00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,680
Speaker 6: So, I mean I can't really get away from Josh Allen.

59
00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,440
Speaker 6: He's my number one quarterback. But since Matthew Freeman, I

60
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,119
Speaker 6: know you're going to talk about this guy in your

61
00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:08,240
Speaker 6: hate section, I'll talk about him here for DFS purposes.

62
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,160
Speaker 6: I like Tom Brady at sixty one hundred for the

63
00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,519
Speaker 6: exact reason that he is the cheapest quarterback. I think,

64
00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,520
Speaker 6: you know, Patrick Mahomes being at seventy six hundred does

65
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,240
Speaker 6: create you know, importance with these other three guys. Who

66
00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,880
Speaker 6: are you know eight hundred apart, whereas Mahomes is eight hundred,

67
00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:28,440
Speaker 6: you know, higher than Allen. So Brady sixty one hundred

68
00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,720
Speaker 6: against the Packers, who the weaker pass defense in that game,

69
00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,960
Speaker 6: maybe the weakest of the four remaining pass defenses in

70
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 6: this championship weekend, and the Bucks are still going to

71
00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 6: throw the ball a lot, still one of the higher

72
00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,440
Speaker 6: pass rates in the league. So I don't I'm not

73
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,040
Speaker 6: as worried about Tom Brady in the cold weather. He's

74
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,600
Speaker 6: got a ton of receiving weapons. So I like Tom

75
00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,520
Speaker 6: Brady at sixty one hundred. I just don't think there's

76
00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,720
Speaker 6: a lot of differentiation between these four outside of the

77
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,680
Speaker 6: fact that I think Josh Allen's rushing ability still puts

78
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 6: him above the But Mahomes, I don't think he'll run

79
00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,720
Speaker 6: as much even if he's active, because of number one,

80
00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,640
Speaker 6: you're worried about, you know, getting hit, and number two

81
00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:09,880
Speaker 6: he has a toe injury as well. So I do

82
00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 6: think you have to consider Brady, especially giving all his weapons,

83
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:12,880
Speaker 6: all the.

84
00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,400
Speaker 4: Stacking options that you know come from that. At sixty one.

85
00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,320
Speaker 2: Hundred, yeah, I mean Brady certainly does have the stacking options.

86
00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:23,120
Speaker 2: I'm a little more hesitant about including Antonio Brown in there,

87
00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,159
Speaker 2: because I think he did suffer something of an injury

88
00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,520
Speaker 2: in the second half of last week, so that's why

89
00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,479
Speaker 2: we saw more Scotty Miller. So I'll be curious to

90
00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,479
Speaker 2: see what happens with Antonio Brown in the practice reports

91
00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:38,560
Speaker 2: this week. But yeah, I mean nothing against Brady because

92
00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,080
Speaker 2: I don't actually think that there's that much of a difference,

93
00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,520
Speaker 2: as you said, between between Brady and between Rogers in

94
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,640
Speaker 2: terms of how we would project them. But like my

95
00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,840
Speaker 2: gut feels as if Tom Brady has a much lower floor.

96
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,760
Speaker 2: And maybe I'm wrong there, but I feel with Rogers

97
00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,560
Speaker 2: at Lambeau, we have a really strong sense of like

98
00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,320
Speaker 2: the range of outcomes with him there and Brady in

99
00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,360
Speaker 2: the cold at Lambeau. I don't know, I feel like

100
00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 2: there's significantly more downside with him. Of course, he is cheaper,

101
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 2: so you know there is some savings there. Sean, who

102
00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:13,680
Speaker 2: are you down on this week?

103
00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,039
Speaker 5: I'm down on mahomes Ray Bounderady touched on it. I

104
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,440
Speaker 5: think with him, I'm lowering his rushing stats a bit.

105
00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,040
Speaker 5: You know, all the attentions on the concussion right now,

106
00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,880
Speaker 5: that's kind of determined he's going to be able to

107
00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,080
Speaker 5: play or not. But you know, this toe injury could

108
00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,080
Speaker 5: be concerning. I know Andy Reid has already said the

109
00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:35,120
Speaker 5: toe should be okay, whatever that means. You know, a

110
00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,320
Speaker 5: guy like Philip Rivers can play through it just fine.

111
00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,200
Speaker 5: But Mahomes, you know, he is a lot more mobile,

112
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,080
Speaker 5: not only to rush, but you know, escape pressure and

113
00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,040
Speaker 5: then you know, extend a play to make a huge play.

114
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,400
Speaker 5: So it could be something that lowers the ceiling a bit.

115
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,080
Speaker 5: I'm also wondering, you know, maybe mahomes ownership will be

116
00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,040
Speaker 5: lower this week, so he could be an option where

117
00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,840
Speaker 5: you kind of pay up to be contrarian. But as

118
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,240
Speaker 5: of right now, I'm a bit lower on Mahomes, mainly

119
00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,080
Speaker 5: because of my rushing project for him as much lower,

120
00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,680
Speaker 5: which you know, a last playoffs he was averaging, you know,

121
00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,479
Speaker 5: thirty to forty yards a game on the ground. I thought,

122
00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,080
Speaker 5: you know, going to the playoffs, I thought we're going

123
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,640
Speaker 5: to see that. But I think given the injuries, he's

124
00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:12,800
Speaker 5: gonna dial that back a bit.

125
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, except for the Super Bowl. He didn't get to

126
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 2: thirty or forty yards in the Super Bowl and glorious fashion, yeah, yeah, because.

127
00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,839
Speaker 5: He kneeled down three times for necuative ten yards, right.

128
00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was fantastic, Raybon. I know that you also

129
00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,279
Speaker 2: are low on Mahomes. I'm low on him to the

130
00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,480
Speaker 2: point where I'm you know, like projecting him for half

131
00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 2: because at this point, you know, I'm not sure he's

132
00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,279
Speaker 2: going to play. I would imagine he clears the concussion

133
00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,279
Speaker 2: protocol the way that you know these things kind of

134
00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,680
Speaker 2: happen for a big game, but you know, not certain

135
00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,839
Speaker 2: that it happens. Raybon, what are your thoughts on Mahomes.

136
00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,840
Speaker 6: I am just for a projection purposes because there's only

137
00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:50,119
Speaker 6: four quarterbacks, and because I think, I mean, the market,

138
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,760
Speaker 6: the betting market is setting the lines as if Mahomes

139
00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,440
Speaker 6: is going to play. So I have him playing, you know,

140
00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,000
Speaker 6: over ninety percent of the of the snaps kind of

141
00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,560
Speaker 6: just the normal injury, you know, probability with a little

142
00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:02,240
Speaker 6: more mixed in.

143
00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,040
Speaker 3: But I do think he's still.

144
00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 6: The value wise, the guy in DFS that you'd want

145
00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 6: to have the least exposure to the Chiefs.

146
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 4: Remember, they haven't been bowling teams out.

147
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,640
Speaker 6: They haven't won by more than a touchdown since Week eight,

148
00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,840
Speaker 6: and over that span, Patrick Mahomes's numbers have taken a.

149
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:19,840
Speaker 3: Little bit of a dip as well.

150
00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,080
Speaker 6: He's only had two of his patented thirty point you

151
00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 6: know DraftKings games over that span, and I think with

152
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,680
Speaker 6: the seventy six hundred price tag, with the you know,

153
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,840
Speaker 6: possibility that he does get re injured or something like that,

154
00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,640
Speaker 6: I just think he is the worst value of the

155
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,000
Speaker 6: of the four quarterbacks. And I just do want to

156
00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,320
Speaker 6: touch on, you know, we mentioned earlier Aaron Rodgers. I mean,

157
00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,720
Speaker 6: excuse me, tom Brady's floor being well at Lambeau. I

158
00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 6: would say the same for Aaron Rodgers, just because this

159
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,400
Speaker 6: Bucks defense was the one defense this year that really

160
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,720
Speaker 6: outside of Carolina, which was a little bit kind of

161
00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,000
Speaker 6: that was just one of those games, but the Bucks

162
00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,119
Speaker 6: defense really did have Rogers numbers, pressured him on forty

163
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,200
Speaker 6: three percent of dropbacks, held him to sixteen of thirty

164
00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,560
Speaker 6: five passing for one hundred and sixty yards, no touchdowns,

165
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:08,440
Speaker 6: two interceptions.

166
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:09,760
Speaker 3: So I think both.

167
00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,600
Speaker 6: I think really all three quarterbacks aside from Josh Allen,

168
00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:13,520
Speaker 6: have such a low floor.

169
00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,680
Speaker 3: The reason being Buffalo has passed.

170
00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,080
Speaker 6: On over seventy percent when you include you know, scrambles,

171
00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,520
Speaker 6: over seventy percent have been called passes in the in

172
00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,480
Speaker 6: these playoffs and Josh Allen's been running a little bit

173
00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,600
Speaker 6: more so that rushing floor, combined with the play calling

174
00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 6: tendancies for Buffalo, I think give Allen a huge floor

175
00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,480
Speaker 6: and Rogers low floor. Because of the matchup, Brady on

176
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,280
Speaker 6: the road in a you know, a tough stadium to

177
00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:45,200
Speaker 6: play in, and then you have Mahomes dealing with Andrew Sean.

178
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,280
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on Rayvaughn said specifically about Aaron

179
00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:53,040
Speaker 2: Rodgers in the matchup? You know that matchup was like

180
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:54,840
Speaker 2: week eight, week nine, something like. I mean it was

181
00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 2: it was a while ago. It was it was over

182
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,520
Speaker 2: half a season ago. And we're not sure if number

183
00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,600
Speaker 2: one corner Carlton Davis is going to play. He exited

184
00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:04,640
Speaker 2: last week with a concussion, so he also has to

185
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,880
Speaker 2: get through the protocol. On the positive side, there's the

186
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 2: potential that Vidavea might come back for this game because

187
00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,160
Speaker 2: he's been designated to return from IR. So what are

188
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 2: your thoughts on the matchup for Rogers.

189
00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,000
Speaker 5: I'm not too concerned, just based on Week six. You know,

190
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,319
Speaker 5: every team's going to have a bad game every season,

191
00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,240
Speaker 5: and that was, you know, the Packers worst game. I

192
00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,520
Speaker 5: think they'll bounce back here. You know Vidavea, I was

193
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:28,520
Speaker 5: going to mention them in the next segment, but his return,

194
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 5: you know, is gonna be huge for the run defense,

195
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 5: and you know Tampa Bay has been more of a

196
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,240
Speaker 5: pass final defense. So I'm not I'm not concerned at

197
00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,920
Speaker 5: all in terms of Rogers when it comes to this matchup.

198
00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:40,920
Speaker 3: We could throw out Week six.

199
00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,040
Speaker 6: I do you know, coming into that game, I did

200
00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,640
Speaker 6: think that this team had some matchup advantage, but which

201
00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:47,680
Speaker 6: is Look at the game against New Orleans. I mean

202
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 6: New Orleans is still a good passing team, and Tampa

203
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,640
Speaker 6: Bay held him to twenty of thirty five one hundred

204
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,360
Speaker 6: and ninety yards, two touchdowns, three picks, and that's including

205
00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:02,160
Speaker 6: Jameis Winston's fifty six hos till some hill like touchdown

206
00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,079
Speaker 6: bomb to tray Klon Smith. So I mean this defense

207
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,440
Speaker 6: played very well against New Orleans with Sean Payton skeeping

208
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,800
Speaker 6: that up with a fifty six yard by the backup

209
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 6: one hundred ninety yards on thirty five attempts, that's still

210
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:15,439
Speaker 6: very good.

211
00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say they weren't able to contain Jameis Winston.

212
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:19,280
Speaker 5: That's how.

213
00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:23,280
Speaker 3: Fair enough?

214
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,280
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, give us the player prop for quarterbacks.

215
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,880
Speaker 2: By the way, everyone should check out the player prop

216
00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,720
Speaker 2: tool at Fantasy Labs and of course also the new

217
00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,480
Speaker 2: player prop tool we have at Action Labs. The Fantasy

218
00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:38,920
Speaker 2: Labs player prop tools specifically where the props with a

219
00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 2: big quality of ten have a sixty percent win rate

220
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,640
Speaker 2: over the past two years. That is a smoky number.

221
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:46,880
Speaker 2: And of course when player props are posted, you can

222
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,839
Speaker 2: bet them at bet mgam Sean give us the prop.

223
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,480
Speaker 5: All right, since this is such a good QB slate,

224
00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 5: I mean, there isn't much to have go up here.

225
00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:57,839
Speaker 5: I mean all quarterbacks you probably have projected to ninety

226
00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,960
Speaker 5: to three hundred yards. I'm proposed to what will be

227
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,200
Speaker 5: the highest passing our total this weekend, so all four quarterbacks,

228
00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,080
Speaker 5: this Mahomes has to play. That's the caveat to this

229
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,760
Speaker 5: over under three hundred and fifty two and a half

230
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,720
Speaker 5: yards under.

231
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 4: We saw that last week quarterbacks.

232
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 3: I think there was the highest total. Was it the Chiefs?

233
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,679
Speaker 5: I'm not combined, Yeah, I think Mahomes and Henny combined

234
00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:25,160
Speaker 5: for like three thirty.

235
00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 6: Yes, yeah, yeah, so I'm I mean we've seen this

236
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,400
Speaker 6: historically in the playoffs where scoring is down a bit,

237
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,920
Speaker 6: and you know, colder weather, scoring down. You know, scoring

238
00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,800
Speaker 6: co correlates, yardage correlates with scoring. So three show two

239
00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,400
Speaker 6: that's a high number, especially with Mahomes not one hundred percent.

240
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,920
Speaker 6: I think there's one team that could do it. It's

241
00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,240
Speaker 6: probably the Bills in Josh Allen, but you know, and

242
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,000
Speaker 6: I know Friedman will talk about this later.

243
00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,720
Speaker 4: Kansas City has been good at scheming.

244
00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,840
Speaker 3: The ball away from wide receivers.

245
00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,560
Speaker 6: Buffalo specializes in throwing two wide receivers, and Josh Allen

246
00:11:58,600 --> 00:11:59,840
Speaker 6: did struggle in that first matchup.

247
00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,160
Speaker 3: So just a hefty number, I'd go under.

248
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:04,680
Speaker 6: But I'd actually say, like if I was just betting

249
00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:06,760
Speaker 6: on this, like long shot bet, I would probably pick

250
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,840
Speaker 6: the Bucks to clear it, just because the Bucks, you know,

251
00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:11,439
Speaker 6: Tom Brady's not going to run, and if they get

252
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,439
Speaker 6: down to the Packers, I could see them just throwing

253
00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,320
Speaker 6: the ball a lot in the second half.

254
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,679
Speaker 2: I will take the under, just in terms of the

255
00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,880
Speaker 2: median or probably not even median, but like the mean

256
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,560
Speaker 2: projections that I have here, I'm still under the like

257
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,079
Speaker 2: kind of two hundred and ninety three hundred marks that

258
00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:31,120
Speaker 2: Sean you were talking about earlier. So just even thinking

259
00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,679
Speaker 2: about you know, like standard deviation. If a guy has

260
00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,640
Speaker 2: a blow up game, he could still have a really

261
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,440
Speaker 2: good game and not hit that mark of like, what

262
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,520
Speaker 2: was it like three hundred and fifty What was it,

263
00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,320
Speaker 2: three hundred three fifty two and a half. Yeah, like

264
00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 2: I could see I could see a high in the

265
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,240
Speaker 2: three thirties or three forties.

266
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, Raybaugh mentioned last week. I think the highest was

267
00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 5: three thirty for a team. This is you know, this

268
00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,560
Speaker 5: is an individual player. So if a guy gets hurt,

269
00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,280
Speaker 5: but you know, if you go back the week before,

270
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,640
Speaker 5: Brady through for three ninety one, Big Ben through for

271
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,880
Speaker 5: five oh four. So this is this is one of

272
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:07,520
Speaker 5: those things. It's not so much the media and you're

273
00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:10,960
Speaker 5: gonna have, you know, an outlier every week with only

274
00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,960
Speaker 5: four quarterbacks. That obviously lowers the ceiling a bit. But

275
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:17,240
Speaker 5: you know, this is a pretty amazing four QB slate.

276
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,360
Speaker 5: So I ran my sim on this three fifty two

277
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:21,679
Speaker 5: is my line. I'm sticking with it.

278
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,800
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks matter more than defenses. But it is also a

279
00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,440
Speaker 2: good defensive slate too. Yeah, so it'll it'll be it'll

280
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,160
Speaker 2: be fun, I think in the middle to see how

281
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:35,040
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks match up against the defenses. Let's talk about

282
00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:39,160
Speaker 2: the running backs. The three guys, why am I even

283
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,240
Speaker 2: sticking with this? Three guys saying I'll do it. I'll

284
00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,120
Speaker 2: do it for for running backs. The three running backs

285
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:47,840
Speaker 2: at the top of our rankings at Action Network Aaron Jones,

286
00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,600
Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette, Devin Singletary Raybond. Kicking it to you, first year,

287
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,439
Speaker 2: who is someone this week at the running back position

288
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:56,240
Speaker 2: you are high on?

289
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,000
Speaker 3: I like Winnard Fournette.

290
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,800
Speaker 6: He got fifty three percent of the carries eight percent

291
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,199
Speaker 6: of the routes run for that Tampa.

292
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,679
Speaker 4: Bay backfield last week, and I.

293
00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:07,360
Speaker 6: Do think that you do want to run on this

294
00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,439
Speaker 6: Packers defense. They are eighteenth in DVOA against the run.

295
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 6: They're also twenty eighth in DVOA on targets to running backs,

296
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 6: and that favorites Fournette, who again ran sixty eight percent

297
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,960
Speaker 6: of the routes to twelve percent for Ronald Jones. We

298
00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,680
Speaker 6: saw Fournette with a key touchdown late in that game

299
00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:29,120
Speaker 6: on the bibble, so I think both potential game scripts

300
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:30,360
Speaker 6: still favor Fournette.

301
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:31,840
Speaker 3: He's getting a tiny bit more of.

302
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 6: The carries and he's uh he's getting a majority of

303
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:41,080
Speaker 6: the of the route, So winning Fournette as a value

304
00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,960
Speaker 6: option here in this championship Roun against Green Bay.

305
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:45,360
Speaker 2: Sean, who is someone you like?

306
00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:47,960
Speaker 5: I am right there with Ray Bond on the Fournette call.

307
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 5: I don't know about a value option. He's the second

308
00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,400
Speaker 5: highest price running back up.

309
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it seems like, yeah, that.

310
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,040
Speaker 5: Might that might shye people away from him, especially this

311
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 5: This seems like a fifty to fifty time share. I mean,

312
00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,120
Speaker 5: Ronald Jones looked great last week, but you know, after

313
00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,560
Speaker 5: a couple of big runs he came olympic off the sideline.

314
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,200
Speaker 5: He's He's clearly not one hundred percent. So there is

315
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:12,440
Speaker 5: potential of, you know, an in game aggravation here where

316
00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,400
Speaker 5: Fornette just dominates touches. But either way, Fournette's gonna dominate

317
00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 5: the passing work. Raven already mentioned. You know he had

318
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 5: a sixty eight percent routes run rate, and you know

319
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:24,760
Speaker 5: Brady does like dumping it off to Fournette. So I

320
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,080
Speaker 5: think he has a really high flour here and a

321
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,600
Speaker 5: higher ceiling when people realize, like I said, Ronald Jones,

322
00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,680
Speaker 5: he's less than high percent. There could be a potential

323
00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 5: scenario where Fournette ends up being you know, true workhorse

324
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 5: back so it's a pretty brutal running back slate. So

325
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 5: I think, you know, spending up to get Fournete here

326
00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:41,440
Speaker 5: makes a ton of sense.

327
00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 2: I think the slate might be slightly better than anticipated,

328
00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 2: But that's if Edwards a Layer is out for the Chiefs.

329
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 2: And I mean, you know, early in the week, it's

330
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 2: not as if you can really project whether someone is

331
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,000
Speaker 2: in or out. But based on the practice reports last

332
00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,760
Speaker 2: week with Edwards Layer where he did practice on Wednesday

333
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:05,120
Speaker 2: and then did not practice on Thursday and Friday, that

334
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,600
Speaker 2: feels as if like they didn't say he had a setback,

335
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 2: but that is the pattern that you see if a

336
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 2: guy has a setback in practice. So given that, I'm

337
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 2: kind of inclined to think, at least right now, that

338
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 2: Edwards a Layer is unlikely to play. And if that's

339
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 2: the case, then I think we saw something pretty close

340
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 2: to what we see last week. Sorry, let me rephrase that.

341
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 2: Then we see something pretty close to what we saw

342
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 2: last week where Williams is actually the lead back and

343
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 2: Le'Veon Bell is you know, a yes, yes exactly, where

344
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 2: he's just a guy and they give him a couple

345
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 2: of carries because it's like, hey, you're a veteran. But

346
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 2: otherwise they're letting Daryl Williams do the actual work in

347
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,320
Speaker 2: the backfield. And if it's a situation where Mahomes is out,

348
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 2: I could see them leaning all the more on the

349
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 2: running game. So Williams is someone I'm intrigued by right now,

350
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 2: definitely keeping an eye on. And Buffalo. You know, I

351
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,399
Speaker 2: think if you had to say which which part of

352
00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,000
Speaker 2: their defense is the weakness, it is their running game.

353
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 2: So I think they can be run on, and it

354
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,480
Speaker 2: might be a situation where more than usual we see

355
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 2: the Chiefs desires to run the ball. So Williams is

356
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 2: someone again you know the caveat we have to wait

357
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,320
Speaker 2: to see what happens with Clyde Edwards layer, but Williams

358
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,199
Speaker 2: is someone I'm definitely keeping an eye on as we

359
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 2: approach the weekend. Sean, who is someone you are low on?

360
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 5: Well, I wouldn't call him say I'm low on him,

361
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 5: because he's my number one ranked running back, but Aaron

362
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 5: Jones at his price, I already mentioned this is a

363
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 5: terrible running back slate. I think it makes sense to

364
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,199
Speaker 5: spend down at running backs so you can spend up

365
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 5: at wide receiver and you know, get Travis Kelcey in

366
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,600
Speaker 5: the tight end slot. So if there's one guy that's

367
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,639
Speaker 5: probably fading at Aaron Jones, it's a tough matchup. We

368
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,200
Speaker 5: already mentioned that Vida Vea might return. That's going to

369
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 5: bolster this run defense even more. I think AJ Dillon

370
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 5: saw the first carry last week, and then of course

371
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 5: Jamal Williams had way more work than I anticipated. Well,

372
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 5: we'll have to monitor the injury part and AJ Dillon,

373
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 5: if he's rolled out, I'll probably have some shares of

374
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 5: Aaron Jones. But you got to, you know, pick your

375
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 5: spots who you're going to fade this slate, and I

376
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 5: think Aaron Jones. You know, he always has to do

377
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,120
Speaker 5: a lot with his fifteen touches and he usually does

378
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 5: come through, but this is one of those weeks for

379
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 5: if you fade him, he has a chance to bust.

380
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 5: So I think that that might be the way I

381
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 5: go with this particular slate.

382
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's hard to argue with the idea

383
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 2: that you don't want to be on the running back

384
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 2: who's going against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because they're strong

385
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 2: in run defense and also strong in pass defense against

386
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 2: running backs. So you know, pretty easy to think that maybe,

387
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 2: especially for DFS, you're investing elsewhere, Raymond, I think you

388
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:47,919
Speaker 2: also are low on Aaron Jones.

389
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, like, and this is again it's a salary

390
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,639
Speaker 6: plane when people are playing DFS. One of the pieces

391
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 6: of advice I like to give is whether you're just

392
00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,200
Speaker 6: on the side or you're using our Fantasy Labs models,

393
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:04,119
Speaker 6: go to the flex tab and sort by price and

394
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:06,679
Speaker 6: kind of get a way of the land from that perspective.

395
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 3: So this week we have Stefan Diggs at seven K.

396
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 6: I still think he's a high floor option and worth

397
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 6: the five hundred over Jones. But then you have Jones

398
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 6: at sixty five, Mike Evans at fifty eight, So there's

399
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 6: kind of just one player, Aaron Jones between seven K

400
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 6: and five point eight, and I think he's likely to

401
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 6: not live up to that price tag. And you also

402
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 6: have in that same range Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and

403
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 6: Tom Brady. So you can always spend you know, sixty

404
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 6: plus on so many players, and I just think pretty

405
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 6: much every player surrounding Jones and in his price range

406
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 6: is a better value. But I'll also talk about Ronald Jones.

407
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,359
Speaker 6: So both Jones, I think I'm low on in this one.

408
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 4: Ronald.

409
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,199
Speaker 6: You know, his numbers look similar to Fournette in the

410
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 6: run game, you know, sixty two yards on thirteen attempts.

411
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 6: But looking at the potential for Tampa Bay to get

412
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 6: down in this game a little more, you know they're

413
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 6: going to green Bay. Him only getting twelve percent of

414
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 6: the routes, I think there's a potential for him to

415
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 6: have a really low floor. We've seen Tampa Bay abandon

416
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 6: the run in the past, and you know Sean mentioned it.

417
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 6: Jones looks banged up in Fournette simply looks like the

418
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 6: better back right now. So Jones I think is going

419
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 6: to be kind of a contrarian.

420
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 3: Maybe play baby.

421
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 6: He gets ownership because he's forty six hundred, But I

422
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:24,400
Speaker 6: still rather go Singletary. Even though Buffalo didn't run essentially

423
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 6: till the third quarter, I do think Buffalo will.

424
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 3: Run a little bit more against Casey.

425
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 6: Singletary played eighty three percent of the routes and got

426
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 6: all but two of the carries in the backfield, So

427
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 6: you're just getting a much higher I think ceiling from

428
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,360
Speaker 6: Singletary for one hundred hours lower, even though you still

429
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 6: run the risk of Buffalo not running much.

430
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 4: I think Ronald Jones is a bigger risk.

431
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: I'm with you that Ronald Jones is a bigger risk.

432
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 2: I'm still off of Singletary though, like the matchup is good.

433
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 2: The Chiefs defense is bottom three in rush TVOA and

434
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 2: passed dboa against running backs, there's no Zach Moss, so,

435
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 2: as you say, Singletary, he's the clear lead back there.

436
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 2: But last week the Bills one by fourteen, Singletary had

437
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: the job all to himself, and he still had just

438
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 2: seven carries and three targets, even with all the snaps

439
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 2: he was seen. It's just a situation where the Bills

440
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: right now are not prioritizing the running game and in

441
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 2: the passing game. Singletary isn't enough of a factor really

442
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 2: to be included there. So I mean, I get that

443
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: he has I think the higher floor and the higher

444
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: ceiling than Ronald Jones, but Singletary is still someone I

445
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: really don't want much of. Sean, do you have any

446
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 2: thoughts on Singletary before we get to the player prop.

447
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 5: Now, I'm with you on that. Last week as fairly

448
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 5: high on him, obviously that was disappointing. I agree, I

449
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 5: don't think they're going to try to establish the run here,

450
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 5: so I'm off him. But one quick point I forgot

451
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 5: to mention when it came to Aaron Jones was that,

452
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 5: you know, I'm fading him, but I'm also going to

453
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,199
Speaker 5: use Jamal Williams as a leverage play. You know, he

454
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 5: saw four carries inside the ten yard line last week,

455
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 5: So I think on a small like this, that's one

456
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 5: of the things that you can do to differentiate is

457
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 5: you know, fade a guy, but also us the guy

458
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 5: that would benefit if he were to bust. So I'll

459
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 5: have a few shares of Jamal Williams this week.

460
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 4: I just want to say one more thing on singletary.

461
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 6: So I do agree that you know, Buffalo like here's

462
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 6: a really low floor, but I just I do want

463
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 6: to point out, like I think he's viable in tournaments

464
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 6: because the week before against Indianapolis, and Indianapolis plays some

465
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 6: cover two, some cover two show, so you know, the

466
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,719
Speaker 6: two safeties are back a little bit more. You know,

467
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 6: Baltimore is a lot of blitz safety is up closer

468
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 6: to the line or they're playing man, so it's a

469
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 6: different total, different defense. But Buffalo ran fifty eight plays

470
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 6: against the Colts and Mawson's Singletary combined for ten carries

471
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 6: but also seven targets. So that's you know, on seventeen

472
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 6: of their fifty eight plays, they you know, the running

473
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 6: back got the ball, and that's you know, that could

474
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 6: be if their plays are in the mid sixties, you know,

475
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 6: that could be a twenty touch game for Singletary. So

476
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 6: I would, I will say, in tournaments, even though I'm

477
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 6: low on him, you know, as the cash game play

478
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 6: in tournaments, I do think there's some viability.

479
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: Then, all right, Sean, I belie leave. Last week, your

480
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: player prop for running backs was actually scrimmage yards for Singletary.

481
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 2: What is your player prop this week?

482
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 5: So we've kind of mentioned both guys, but I'm going

483
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 5: with who's gonna have more rushing yards this week? Ronald

484
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 5: Jones or Leonard Fournette. I have both at forty seven.

485
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 5: So I want you guys to help me break the

486
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 5: time here.

487
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 6: Leonard Fournette because he's getting more carries and he looks healthier.

488
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,239
Speaker 5: Well, I think Leonard Fournett getting more carries doesn't mean

489
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 5: he'll get more rushing yards.

490
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 3: Yeah no, no, that's fair, but he's obviously.

491
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 5: Going to dominate the receiving work. So if you think

492
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 5: he's going to also dominate the rushing game, he's a

493
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 5: smash play for you. I bet so.

494
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 6: I don't think he's going to dominate the rushing game.

495
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 6: But I'm just going off last week, and like in

496
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 6: a one game sample, it's hard for me to differentiate,

497
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 6: Like I have Ronald Jones getting point one yards per

498
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 6: carry more, you know what I mean, Like it's hard

499
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 6: for me to separate to like give too much variance

500
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 6: in terms of the team versus the team running backs

501
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 6: versus the individuals in a one game you know, just

502
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 6: projected for one game.

503
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 7: So I have.

504
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 6: Four Nette, getting about I have four Nette at a

505
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 6: weven carries and Jones at eight for this week.

506
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,479
Speaker 2: Oh okay, okay, So I'm trying to think about what

507
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 2: was the split last week? It was seventeen and thirteen, Raymond.

508
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 2: I'm actually fairly similar to where you are on the split.

509
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: I have eleven point one carries for for Net nine

510
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 2: point eight carries for Jones, which means that I have

511
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 2: four Nette projected for forty six and a half and

512
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 2: I have Jones projected for forty seven.

513
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 5: So that's what I'm.

514
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 6: Saying it's say, so you guys have more of a

515
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 6: split between their two yards per carry averages, is what.

516
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 5: I yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. And you know last

517
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 5: week the game plan was let Fournette start, you know,

518
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 5: get a couple series, and then it was going to

519
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 5: become the hot hand approach. You know, that could be

520
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 5: different this week. It could just start off the hot

521
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 5: hand approach at least when it in terms of you know,

522
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 5: the rushing game. So I think last week they eased

523
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 5: Jones in, but this week it could be much more

524
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 5: of a timeshare and potentially so I have Ral Jones

525
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 5: getting more carries this week, but I'm a freedman. I

526
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,959
Speaker 5: have you know, Jones having a way higher yards per carry,

527
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 5: So I have him tied at forty seven.

528
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 2: I have Jones zero point five yards more, but I

529
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 2: like my my gut feels like four net is the

530
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 2: better call because he's going to have I think he's

531
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: likelier to have more carries. But I will I will

532
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: go with Jones. I will honor my projections and go

533
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 2: with Jones.

534
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 7: Hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I want

535
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 7: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

536
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 7: Network Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

537
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

538
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 3: down of the Dallas Marriage wellkome everybody for the Lockdown

539
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: Lakers podcast.

540
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: Let's go.

541
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 7: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

542
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 7: know your team better than anyone and give you the

543
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 7: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

544
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 7: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

545
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 2: Okay, let's talk about the wide receivers. Here at the

546
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 2: top of our rankings we have DeVante Adams, Tyree Kill

547
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 2: Stefan Diggs. I don't think you know much of a

548
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: surprise there to have those big three at the top. Sean,

549
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 2: who are you high on at wide receiver?

550
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be hard to pass up Alan

551
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 5: Lazard at forty two hundred this week. You know, he's

552
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 5: coming off four catch, ninety six yard touchdown game against

553
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 5: the Rams. He had a forty percent share of his

554
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 5: team's air yards last week, which is the fourth highest

555
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 5: share of the divisional round. He's trending up at the

556
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 5: right time. And you know, we have to remember that

557
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 5: he missed weeks four through ten due to his core

558
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 5: muscle injury. So he's been sort of eased back and

559
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 5: you know, getting into the swing of things. So I

560
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 5: think having the bye week in the first round of

561
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 5: the playoffs helped. But we also have to remember he

562
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 5: was wide receiver seven and half point PPR after the

563
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 5: first three weeks of the season before the injury, so

564
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 5: I think, you know, he's probably closer to one hundred

565
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 5: percent pretty much where he was at that time. So

566
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 5: I'm high on this week, and like I said, forty

567
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 5: two hundred, especially on this light, it's gonna be hard

568
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 5: to pass him up.

569
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: Raymond, who do you like?

570
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 6: I really like Chris Godwin. He's fifty four hundred treven.

571
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 6: You already mentioned Antonio Brown. A little banged up, looks

572
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 6: like it's not serious. So I think Brown will play.

573
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 6: But those Green Bay, especially jyr Alexander on the outside,

574
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 6: that's gonna be either Brown or Mike Evans, depending on

575
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 6: you know, how they line guys up. But Godwin should

576
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 6: have escape him and face Chann and Sullivan in the slot.

577
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 6: And then you look at god when and he ran

578
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 6: more routes than any other Tampa Bay player last week,

579
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 6: one hundred percent of the of the snaps. The passing snaps,

580
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 6: did Chris Godwin runner out compared to ninety four percent

581
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 6: for Evans, fifty six for Brown, twenty four percent for

582
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 6: Tyler Johnson, who they really like, So Tyra Johnson watch

583
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 6: out for him if Brown doesn't play or is banged up,

584
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 6: because they really like Johnson, and in twenty one percent

585
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 6: for Miller.

586
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 3: So I really like god when at fifty four hundred, he's.

587
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 6: A guy that especially if Tampa Bay gets down behind

588
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 6: in gamescript or even if they don't, he's he has

589
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 6: the potential to put up one of those you know,

590
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 6: eight catch one hundred yard games and equal an Adams

591
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 6: a digs a Tyreek, you know, with the volume.

592
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 2: So Chris Godwin, for me, I'm still pretty high on Tyreek,

593
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 2: and this is in theory even if Mahomes is out,

594
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 2: although I would I would scale him back and change

595
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: projections if Mahomes is out, but Tyreek, when he's on

596
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 2: the outside, he's likely to face number one cornerback tra

597
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 2: Davius White, But I don't think that White really has

598
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 2: the athleticism to stick with Hill. And then plus Tyreek

599
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 2: still runs a lot of his routes from the slot anyway,

600
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 2: and White almost never goes into the slot, so this

601
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: isn't going to be a true shadow situation. I know

602
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: that Tyreek really didn't do much in Week six when

603
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 2: these teams faced each other, but it was also a

604
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: situation where they didn't need Tyreek Hill to do a lot.

605
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 2: And also Tyreek Hill in the first half of the

606
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 2: season just wasn't being targeted with the volume that he's

607
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 2: getting now, so I'm not putting really too much stock

608
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 2: into what we saw in Week six. I'm also high

609
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: on DeVante Adams number one cornerback Carlton Davis. He left

610
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 2: last week with a concussion for Tampa Bay, so if

611
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 2: he's out, a significantly better matchup I think for him

612
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 2: than if Carlton Davis is in. So right now I'm

613
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: operating slightly under the assumption that Carlton Davis is out,

614
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 2: but that's something to monitor as well. And honestly, even

615
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: if Davis is in, like DeVante, Adams is great in

616
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 2: almost any matchup, so something to keep an eye on

617
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: there with Davis. But I'm still pretty high on Adams.

618
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 2: Raybon kicking it to you here, who's someone you are

619
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: low on?

620
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,479
Speaker 6: So for me, it's gonna be Antonio Brown and to

621
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 6: a lesser extent, Mike Evans.

622
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: If Brown plays more so Brown.

623
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 6: Because I think he will draw that assignment on JayR Alexander.

624
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 6: They haven't really been shadowing the way they were in

625
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 6: the first half of the season, so Brown could get

626
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 6: the majority of the snaps on Alexander. And again, I

627
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 6: think Godwin is going to be the number one target here.

628
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 6: Ja Alexander has allowed just a just thirty six of

629
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 6: seventy one targets caught in for nine point three yards

630
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 6: per reception four point seven yards per target, just two

631
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 6: scores all year, So Brown getting that number one assignment.

632
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 6: His routes run for dropback have been decreasing. His routes

633
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 6: run for dropback have gone from ninety one to sixty

634
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 6: to fifty six percent from Week seventeen through the first round,

635
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 6: second round. And he's been that guy that even though

636
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 6: he's the third wide receiver and they play a lot

637
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 6: of three wide sets, he's still been in that sixty

638
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 6: fifty high fifties or.

639
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 4: Mid sixties for most of the season with the Bucks.

640
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 6: So and Antonio Brown is a guy who I will

641
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 6: be fading completely or like maybe like five percent exposure

642
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 6: ten percent at most this week.

643
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you're absolutely right because he is

644
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 2: a little bit banged up, and just in terms of

645
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: how they've aligned their wide receivers so far, Brown will

646
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: be matched up on Alexander because they have not been

647
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 2: using Alexander in shadow coverage even think you know a

648
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago when we saw the Washington football

649
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: team play against the Packers, that would have been a

650
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 2: perfect game. Am I imagining this right? Did that game happen?

651
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 6: Yeah?

652
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 3: It was a buck you're thinking it was?

653
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 6: Yeah?

654
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sorry, he hasn't shadowed since, like we he hasn't. Yes,

655
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna undo that. Yeah. So yeah, as you say,

656
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: we haven't seen we haven't seen Alexander's shadow for at

657
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: least half a season.

658
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 3: Uh.

659
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 2: And if they haven't done it to this point, I

660
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 2: really don't see why they would change all of that

661
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 2: up now. So I'm imagining we will see that matchup

662
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 2: quite a bit of Brown on Alexander, and that really

663
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 2: does favor Alexander. Sean, who are you low on a

664
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 2: wide receiver?

665
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 5: I'm piling on on Antonio Brown for all the reasons

666
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 5: you guys mentioned. His fifty six percent routes run rate

667
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 5: tied for the lowest of the season for him. Obviously

668
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 5: that could be due to the injury, but honestly, I

669
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 5: think they're perfectly fine turning the guys like Scottie Miller

670
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 5: and Tyler Johnson. I think they're pretty high on both.

671
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 5: And Tyler Johnson is this guy. I'm already thinking ahead

672
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 5: to twenty twenty one. You know, Godwin and Antonio Brown

673
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 5: are free agents. I can't imagine them keeping Antonio Brown on.

674
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 5: Brady loves Tyler Johnson, so I think just having an

675
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 5: excuse to use these guys is good enough for them.

676
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 5: So I'll have zero shares of Antonio Brown this week.

677
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's Tyer Johnson called like.

678
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 6: I love it because and this is one thing that

679
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 6: helps with watching games and not just looking at the numbers.

680
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 6: There was a weight pass in that game against New

681
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 6: Orleans where Brady threw it.

682
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: Out way outside and Tyer.

683
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 6: Johnson just like slipped around and made like they were

684
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 6: calling it like one of the catches of the year

685
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 6: on the telecast, which it was a bit much, but

686
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 6: like it was a really good catch at a really

687
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 6: clutch point in the game for the number five now

688
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 6: number four wide receiver. So like his he went twenty

689
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 6: four percent of routes run to twenty one percent for

690
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,719
Speaker 6: Miller the week before, nineteen percent for Johnson, seven percent

691
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 6: for Miller. So let's say Brown isn't getting his full compliment.

692
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 6: Keep Tyler Johnson in mind for your tournaments because it

693
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 6: may very well be him now. Miller obviously he has

694
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 6: some viability too, Cameron Braid, all those guys, but like,

695
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 6: keep Tyler Johnson in mind because I guarantee that he's

696
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 6: going to be.

697
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 4: The kind of a forgotten man in terms of ownership

698
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 4: this week.

699
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Tyler Johnson, I mean, just to talk about

700
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 2: him some more, let's turn this into the Tyler Johnson Podcast.

701
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm with you on next year, especially

702
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 2: because of the guys who are going to be leaving.

703
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 2: But also, I mean, Tyler Johnson was a really good

704
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 2: college wide receiver just in terms of the production he had,

705
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 2: the market chare he had in Minnesota, like very underappreciated

706
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 2: wide receiver, and he played a lot of his time

707
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: in the slot. But we have seen him have success

708
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: in the NFL out wide, which is really encouraging that

709
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: he's not going to be limited just to a slot

710
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 2: receiver where he could have the flexibility, the versatility to

711
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 2: move all across the formation. So like that speaks really

712
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 2: well about the potential that he has long term. So

713
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: one hundred percent with you on what we might see

714
00:33:56,440 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: out of Tyler Johnson, potentially this week, but also next year.

715
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 2: One guy I'm relatively low on. I want to try

716
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: to contextualize this correctly is Stephan Diggs. Like I still

717
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 2: have him in the top three. Obviously, like Stephan Diggs

718
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: is great, but this year the Chiefs have allowed the

719
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 2: second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, primarily because of

720
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 2: their scheme. In Week six, Diggs had just forty six

721
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 2: yards on eight targets against the Chiefs. He also had

722
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 2: a touchdown, but it was clearly one of his worst

723
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 2: games of the year. So in any game, Diggs is

724
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 2: capable of going off. But I think he just has

725
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 2: a little bit lower of a median projection and a

726
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 2: little bit lower of a floor this week relative to

727
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 2: what we see out of him in most weeks. All Right, Sean,

728
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: give us the wide receiver player prop So.

729
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 5: Last week, if you remember I did, how many times

730
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 5: Chad will take Freedman's that I'm convince me versus David

731
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 5: Joker receptions. Chad is well aware of it, so I

732
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 5: don't think he took any of your bets.

733
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 2: That is correct. And by the way, by the way,

734
00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: fantastic weekend, fantastic week.

735
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 5: Well we all knew that would happen, but so you're welcome.

736
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 5: And then Joku obviously went off for four catches, so

737
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 5: it wasn't even close. I'm going to have a prop

738
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 5: here that Chad can't ruin. It's going to be the

739
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 5: total number of winning bets we give. Unconvinced me. So

740
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 5: out of our nine total bets, how many will we

741
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 5: win versus Chris Godwin's receptions?

742
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 6: I'm going over because, oh the Godwin's receptions, just because

743
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 6: number one I love the matchup. But number two I

744
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 6: would project us to get about I would say the

745
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 6: median for us should be about six, maybe five point

746
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 6: five in that range, five point five to six out

747
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 6: of nine.

748
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 5: How many receptions do you have Godwin for?

749
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 6: That's already pretty I have Godwin for, I have got

750
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,439
Speaker 6: Win in that same I have Godwin for five point

751
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 6: six median, But I think the ceiling is a lot

752
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 6: higher because for example, right now I'm still projecting Brown.

753
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 6: I haven't done like my full matchup adjustments on Brown

754
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 6: in Alexander and everyone.

755
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 3: So I think God will go up.

756
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 6: And I do think, you know, sixty three percent for

757
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 6: us probably actually the median, so it probably should be

758
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 6: around six.

759
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 4: But this is kind of a gut call.

760
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 5: I like, got well, I mean, just thinking about it, well,

761
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 5: we should go three and one player props.

762
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: Right, well, should we should? But I mean, and then never.

763
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 5: Know, there's gonna be a higher correlation. I mean last

764
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 5: week we were on the same side on one spread

765
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 5: and one total, right, so it's gonna be hi sing

766
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 5: and high flour for our picks this week. I think

767
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 5: we'll either go eight and one or you know, two

768
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 5: and seven.

769
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna stay humble. That's i'm'na stay humble.

770
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 6: I'm gonna say we get if we go five out

771
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 6: of nine, that's still above fifty percent, but it allows

772
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,399
Speaker 6: for some humility, and I expect Chris God want to go.

773
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 2: Over there, Rabon. You got to be a company man here,

774
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 2: I mean, we're going over.

775
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 3: I am a company man.

776
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 6: Chad Millman has told us to fade you at all costs,

777
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 6: straight from the boss.

778
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, let's assume that I go oh to three.

779
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 2: All Right, you guys still have the chance because as

780
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: Sean said, you guys are going to be correlated with

781
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 2: a lot of your picks. You still have the chance

782
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 2: of collectively going six and oh. I have Godwin projected

783
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,479
Speaker 2: right at five and a half. And so I will

784
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 2: take the over on this because even if I go

785
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 2: oh and three, let's be honest, I'm not going oh

786
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: and three. Well, I mean I'm famous. Last words, that's

787
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 2: gonna be a sound sound clip that Matt Mitchell throws

788
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 2: in my face later. Run y'all get in to day.

789
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: You ain't know to us no more now, you know

790
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 2: what I mean.

791
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 5: That's the greatest of all time.

792
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 2: Look at your work. But I don't believe I will

793
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 2: go oh and three. Uh, you know, feel good had

794
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 2: a good weekend last weekend. You know, I think I'll

795
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: probably have a decent weekend now, and I trust that

796
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 2: you guys will as well. So I have to hammer

797
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:40,919
Speaker 2: the over on this prop.

798
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 5: I bet, I bet we're gonna go seven in two

799
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 5: and Chattel will go one and two with the Betsy picks.

800
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 2: Yes, that feels accurate that you.

801
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 5: Know what I too?

802
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 6: Would be like Friedman will take the pack, Sean will

803
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 6: take the fucks because that's what the numbers say.

804
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 4: Friedman will be right and we'll be wrong, and that's all.

805
00:37:58,239 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 5: There we go.

806
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: That is that is my ultimate dream of winning, right there.

807
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 2: That's how I would really like to win.

808
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, so tune in this Sunday.

809
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 2: Yes, Okay, let's let's talk about the tight ends. I mean,

810
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 2: really it's Travis Kelcey and then every everyone else just

811
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 2: in terms of like how it shakes out and our projections,

812
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 2: you know, Kelsey big tear drop and then everyone else. Sean,

813
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 2: who are you high on?

814
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 5: I feel like saying any other tight end other than

815
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 5: Kelsey should have like a laugh track behind it. But

816
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with Dawson Knox as the cheap, low

817
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 5: owned tight end flyer this week. I mean, he's capable

818
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 5: of going, you know, four catches for forty ers and

819
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 5: a touchdown, which could be a slate breaker on this.

820
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna go with him. He's he's running a

821
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 5: pretty high routes run rate last week it was right

822
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 5: around seventy percent. And Cole Beasley, you know, despite running

823
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 5: around on seventy five percent of the dropbacks. I don't

824
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 5: think he's anywhere near one hundred percent. So he went

825
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 5: catchless on two targets, so that could be a potential

826
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 5: extra target or two for a guy like Knox. And

827
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 5: you know Casey can be prone to tight end. So

828
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 5: this is a sneaky spot and the few lineups I

829
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 5: won't have, Travis kelce I think Dawson Knox will be

830
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 5: my cheap flyer this week.

831
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely see your point there. The Chiefs in

832
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 2: the regular season allow the fifth most yards receiving two

833
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 2: tight ends, and because of the way that their defense

834
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: is schemed, they do allow targets into the middle of

835
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 2: the field and you know, short, not deep, So it's

836
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 2: it's a situation where you could see Dawson Knox get

837
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 2: a few more opportunities than you would normally see. So

838
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 2: I can I can see that you have not been

839
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 2: laughed off of the podcast, Raymond, who are you just

840
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 2: in addition to Travis Kelcey, who are you high on

841
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:43,879
Speaker 2: this week? Yeah?

842
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 6: Travis Kelcey, I think Sean mentioned it earlier, but you

843
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 6: definitely want Kelsey like in your lineup, whether it's your

844
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 6: flex like, if you even if you're playing another one

845
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 6: of these tight ends, I would still flex Kelsey and

846
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 6: treat them just like a wide receiver.

847
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 3: But for this show, I.

848
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 6: Do like the Knox call because I think if Buffalo's

849
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 6: has a high volumely have to kind of adjust for that,

850
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 6: like their volume could greatly exceed even our like most

851
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 6: like extreme median projections for Buffalo in his game.

852
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 3: So do like the Knox call. But also I like

853
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 3: Robert Tanyan in this spot.

854
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 6: Tampa Bay is number twenty five in DVOA against the

855
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 6: tight end position. We're still talking about Aaron Rodgers here.

856
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 6: Still expect him to have success in Green Bay when

857
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 6: they do get in the red zone, especially within you know,

858
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 6: the five yard line. Most teams run the ball. Green

859
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:31,399
Speaker 6: Bay throws the ball at a high rate. Tampa Bay's

860
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 6: really good at run defense, so this could be one

861
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:37,240
Speaker 6: where Tanyan's touchdown replaces a touchdown that may have normally

862
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 6: gone to a guy like Aaron Jones.

863
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 4: Or aj Dillon even if he if he's healthy.

864
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 6: So I do like Robert Tanyan in this spot against

865
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 6: this number twenty five ranked Tampa Bay defense.

866
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going to be real original and said that

867
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: I like Travis Kelce Boom done Okay, let's let's move

868
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: on to the players we know. I mean, I really

869
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 2: I'm looking at like raybon I get your point about

870
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 2: Tian Sean, I get your point about Knox. I'm going

871
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 2: to want to have. I think, especially in cash games,

872
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 2: only one tight end in my lineup this week, and

873
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 2: it's clearly Travis Kelcey. He's getting number one wide receiver

874
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 2: type of volume, but doing it at the tight end position.

875
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 2: So out of all of the players I think you

876
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 2: prioritize this week in cash games, I think Kelsey is

877
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: at the top of the list.

878
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 4: He's had Weston fourteen point seven DraftKings points twice.

879
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's he is the priority of the state.

880
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about the guys that we are relatively

881
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 2: low on. For me, it's everyone who isn't Kelsey done?

882
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 2: Just cutting through the segment. I would also say Rob

883
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 2: Gronkowski two weeks ago, he had one target. Last week

884
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 2: he had five targets but just one reception. You know,

885
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 2: he's just not really looking like the mid season version

886
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 2: of himself that was getting heavy volume and actually doing

887
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 2: something with it. Ravon, who are you low on? Yeah?

888
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 3: Same for me, it's Rob Gronkowski. You know, to a

889
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 3: wesser extent.

890
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 6: You know, you could say Cameron Bray as well, but

891
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 6: because of the you know, there's still two hundred hours difference.

892
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 6: Gronkowski thirty two hundred Break thirty. I still think Gronkowski

893
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 6: is the worst value. They've been running essentially the same

894
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 6: amount of routes in the playoffs. Gronkowski got a couple

895
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 6: extra ones last week, Break got a couple extra ones

896
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 6: the week before. Gronkowski's been a valuable blocker for them,

897
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 6: So depending on the play call, it could go either way.

898
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 6: But green Bay has been pretty strong in defending the

899
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 6: tight end position. They are fifth in terms of DraftKings

900
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 6: points allowed to tight end.

901
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:44,240
Speaker 4: The fifth fewest, and ninth in DVOA to the position.

902
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 2: Sean, who are you low on this week?

903
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 5: Obviously any one not named Travis Kelsey. I mean he's

904
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 5: ten points higher than my number two tight end, Robert Tanyan.

905
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 5: And you know, Piggybackum what Raybaun said. I think that

906
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 5: is a really sneaky idea is obviously play Kelsey and

907
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 5: the tight end slot, but use Tanyan as your flex.

908
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 5: I mean he's three point six k but you know

909
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 5: I have him projected right around where these four to

910
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 5: four point two k wide receivers are, And that's a

911
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 5: great way to kind of get leverage and differentiate your

912
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 5: lineups against other people is just use the second tight

913
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 5: end there. So I think that's a sneaky plan and

914
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 5: I'll probably use that.

915
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean it's a great idea and tournaments, no

916
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 2: one is going to want to have two tight ends,

917
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 2: right right, so yeah, and instant distinguishment of your lineups.

918
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, And I just want to reiterate that because I

919
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 6: think that's a great those great points by you guys

920
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 6: like peoples A lot of times ask me, you know,

921
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 6: how do you use the Fantasy Labs models?

922
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 4: Are you just straight up quicking optimized?

923
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 6: And I always say one of the most valuable things

924
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 6: for me is to look at the projections in the

925
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 6: context of that flex spot, in the context of how

926
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 6: how the salaries break down. And I think what Sewan's

927
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 6: kind of getting at is there may even be some

928
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 6: value on the median projection with Tonyans median projection versus

929
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 6: you know, going with a wide receiver or running back

930
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 6: in that flex So definitely something to just keep in mind,

931
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 6: especially on these smaller slates.

932
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 2: Okay, Sean, give us the tight end player prop.

933
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 5: So I ran the simulation on this slate, and Kelsey

934
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 5: has about a seventy to seventy five percent chance of

935
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 5: being the top tight end. So I'm going to make

936
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 5: this projection or this prop. Will any other tight end

937
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,240
Speaker 5: get within six and a half points of Travis Kelcey's

938
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 5: DK score this week? So you get all other tight

939
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 5: ends plus six and a half whoever it is, it

940
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 5: doesn't matter, will any of them get within six and

941
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 5: a half points of Kelsey? This is Mahomes has to start.

942
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 6: I will go with no because even though I think,

943
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 6: like the math probably says it's probably close, I'm guessing

944
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 6: by your prop, but they're just there's such a potential

945
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 6: for a Kelsey monster game that and I don't you

946
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 6: know all these other guys, I see them kind of

947
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 6: hitting their medians, maybe with Tanya whittle over, but like

948
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 6: Tanyan could have a touchdown, get his normal yardage. And

949
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 6: just because DraftKings also gives you one hundred point yard bonus,

950
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 6: which I don't think Tenian will get, I think that

951
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 6: gives Kelsey a little extra boost.

952
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna go with no.

953
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with no. This feels like the

954
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 2: situation of a giant fighting multiple children and the question

955
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 2: is like, will one of these children be able to

956
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:22,959
Speaker 2: injure the giant before they all get killed? I think

957
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: the answer is no, the giant slays them all and

958
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 2: emerges unscathed. So I'm going with Travis Kelcey. I think

959
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 2: the one out here. I mean, I guess you could

960
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 2: have maybe like a touchdown like multiple touchdown game or

961
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 2: something like that for Gronkowski or something like that, or

962
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 2: maybe Tanian right, but yeah, I just think the volume

963
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 2: that Kelsey is likely to get is so superior that

964
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 2: that covers the six and a half. That's a good

965
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:52,399
Speaker 2: that's a good prop show.

966
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 5: I think a two touchdown game for Gronk would absolutely

967
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 5: cover this. But yeah, like Gronk having a four catch

968
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 5: fifty yard game with a touchdown, we'll probably do it

969
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 5: as well. Again, it comes down to Kelsey, like will

970
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 5: he have a ceiling game? Then yeah, obviously this isn't close,

971
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 5: but I think six and a half I think it's

972
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 5: gonna be pretty close.

973
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 2: All right, that is going to do it for the show.

974
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:15,439
Speaker 2: You can follow Sean, Chris and Me in the Action

975
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 2: Network app at the Underscore odds maker Chris Raybond and

976
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 2: Matt f the Oracle use the app to get real

977
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 2: time odds and track your bets for free. Be sure

978
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: to check out our rankings at the Action Network and

979
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 2: please subscribe to and rate and review the show and

980
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 2: listen and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

981
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 5: We're finished talking