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Speaker 2: He writes an exceptionally intelligent note at Morgan Stanley, Matthew
Speaker 2: Hornback joins us Right.
Speaker 3: Now, Man, I got a problem.
Speaker 2: Everybody from Stolfus over to OpCo down to the gloom
Speaker 2: at the lower end is optimistic this year.
Speaker 3: Is your Hornback radar up?
Speaker 4: Hey, Tom, thanks for having me on the show. Well,
Speaker 4: my radar is always off. It's just a matter of
Speaker 4: whether whether it's the end of the year or whether
Speaker 4: it's the beginning of the year. But the radar is up,
Speaker 4: and I do think that there are going to be
Speaker 4: some interesting opportunities twenty twenty five.
Speaker 5: All right, let's go there, matt Global head of Macro Strategy.
Speaker 5: That means you can go anywhere, anytime and look at
Speaker 5: any asset. What's your twenty twenty five lead right here?
Speaker 4: Well, I think one of the expectations investors are bringing
Speaker 4: into this year is that is that you know it's
Speaker 4: all it's all good and and and and there's nothing bad.
Speaker 4: And that may be the case by the time we
Speaker 4: get to the end of twenty twenty five. Nothing bad
Speaker 4: may it may have happened. But you know, when we
Speaker 4: talk about things like a recession, obviously nobody talks about
Speaker 4: recession anymore because it hasn't happened. But I'm actually less
Speaker 4: focused on the probability of a recession. What what I
Speaker 4: am worried about is that we may have more recession scares.
Speaker 4: You know, if you think about the past eighteen months,
Speaker 4: we've had one recession scare every six months. Every six months,
Speaker 4: the bond market prices in a very aggressive reduction in
Speaker 4: the Fed's policy rate. Now that aggressive reduction doesn't come
Speaker 4: to pass, the economy ends up hanging in there just fine.
Speaker 4: But for markets, which is what I focus on, you know,
Speaker 4: we have to be worried about being worried and think
Speaker 4: about where we end up at the end of that.
Speaker 2: Okay, we've got a frame out here. Paul Hornback is
Speaker 2: like was running you know, he's with Robbie Feldman running Japan.
Speaker 2: Years ago at Morgan Stanley. He was doing Japan, doing
Speaker 2: the end doing trade he probably flowing in Japan at
Speaker 2: the same time as a CMT. He's like a market technician.
Speaker 2: Oh boy, Matt, we're going to walk right now. I
Speaker 2: got to impress Tim Kraig. He just walked in the
Speaker 2: studio here on a semi log NDX. I have support
Speaker 2: on my climate exponential moving averages. Are you ready a
Speaker 2: thirty five percent drop from here? How extended is the NDX.
Speaker 4: Oh, I think it's It seems pretty extended for sure.
Speaker 4: One of the things that's also very extended related to
Speaker 4: Japan is dollar yen. You know, dollar yen in the
Speaker 4: high one fifties is a understandable why it's there. The
Speaker 4: rate differentials are still wide. People expect the US to
Speaker 4: remain exceptional, but I was just in Japan over the holidays,
Speaker 4: and it is exceptionally affordable. Given where the currency is,
Speaker 4: it just doesn't make much fundamental sense for the currency
Speaker 4: to be so weak. And so I would say one
Speaker 4: thing that I would be looking for quite a decline
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five is the dollar yen exchange rate.
Speaker 4: I think that can very easily go below one forty
Speaker 4: by the time we get to the end of twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five.
Speaker 3: That's a big figure move.
Speaker 5: That is a big figure move, and we haven't seen
Speaker 5: that got the one to fifty seven spot seventy. Hey, Matt,
Speaker 5: the good friends at Morgan Stanley are are you guys
Speaker 5: seeing fun flows coming into the US, say from European investments,
Speaker 5: from Greenland and other parts in Europe.
Speaker 4: Well, I would say there's a lot of flows coming
Speaker 4: into Goldland, not necessarily Greenland, but but but certainly you
Speaker 4: know that the dollar does benefit when investors are looking
Speaker 4: to allocate into either a safety like gold or West treasuries,
Speaker 4: the dollar is going to benefit. So in that sense,
Speaker 4: Greenland and Goldland are are highly correlated at this moment.
Speaker 4: When you see US interest rates going up, you also
Speaker 4: see the US dollar appreciating. Uh, there's more real return
Speaker 4: offered in the US. And and even if they don't
Speaker 4: really hear that much about real return, you can just
Speaker 4: go buy gold.
Speaker 2: One final question, I want to swing it to Japan,
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna stand US dollar. Matt Hornbach to me,
Speaker 2: it's a non linear move on d X y it
Speaker 2: won one nine. Are we getting up to where there's
Speaker 2: a kink where there's a movement off dollar index or
Speaker 2: can it be a smooth ride to higher and strong dollar.
Speaker 4: Well, no, I think if you look at the dollar
Speaker 4: over the past couple of years, it has been anything
Speaker 4: but smooth there. You know, the dollar has largely been
Speaker 4: range bound, and that's a large part because interest rates
Speaker 4: have been largely range bound since the Fed stopped their
Speaker 4: hiking cycle back in July of twenty twenty three. So
Speaker 4: it's it's been a range bound market. It's definitely not
Speaker 4: been smooth. Twenty five is not expected to be a
Speaker 4: smooth year for the dollar. But but that's where a
Speaker 4: surprise could could could come to the foe is the
Speaker 4: dollar could actually could could move lower in a more
Speaker 4: smooth fashion because ultimately we think the Fed, the Fed
Speaker 4: is going to continue to lower rates and buy more
Speaker 4: than what you see priced into the market today.
Speaker 3: Okay, Matt, thank you.
Speaker 2: Matt hornback with a brief here to get us started
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five. He is with Morgan Stanley.
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Speaker 2: You grow up the son of a fireman. You've got
Speaker 2: that irascible kind of thing. John Bolton from the very
Speaker 2: beginning has been someone of opinion, and he's been someone
Speaker 2: who said it as clear as he can. People that
Speaker 2: are for John Bolton, his critics as well see a
Speaker 2: distinguished career in public service, and he has been very
Speaker 2: visible in the last number of weeks on the formation
Speaker 2: of the second Trump administration. Cabina, John, thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining Bloomberg today.
Speaker 3: I'm just going to cut to the chase.
Speaker 2: Sometimes you write an essay and then you wrote in
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal an essay on mister Patel, who
Speaker 2: is being considered to run the FBI, and line by
Speaker 2: line you went through it.
Speaker 3: Why did you.
Speaker 2: Put that much energy into that essay on mister Patel
Speaker 2: are potential leader of the FBI.
Speaker 6: Well being Director of the FBI is one of the
Speaker 6: most important jobs in government, and it's been held by
Speaker 6: some distinguished people and by some people who are not
Speaker 6: so distinguished. But the power in that job is just enormous,
Speaker 6: and I wanted to show why, in my view, Patel
Speaker 6: wasn't qualified, not in terms of his competence or his experience,
Speaker 6: or his character. I just thought it was important for
Speaker 6: senators to have that in mind.
Speaker 3: The senators are the key. I can state, folks.
Speaker 2: My book of the year a number of years ago, ready,
Speaker 2: twelve years ago, eleven years ago, Garrett Graf The Threat
Speaker 2: Max Matrix, The FBI at War. It is a spectacular
Speaker 2: five hundred pages on the complexity of the FBI. John Boltons,
Speaker 2: You believe that the president elect doesn't understand the day
Speaker 2: to day grind of what the FBI does.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Trump has very little understanding how most
Speaker 6: of the government operates. He never took the time to
Speaker 6: learn it. He didn't know much before he became president,
Speaker 6: and he didn't learn very much when he was president.
Speaker 6: The FBI has roughly, I don't know, thirty eight forty
Speaker 6: thousand employees, most of whom spend their time working on
Speaker 6: investigating real crimes or real threats to the United States
Speaker 6: from overseas. And the idea that you're going to unleash
Speaker 6: somebody whose main job, in Trump's view is hunting down
Speaker 6: Trump's enemies really demeans the incredibly important work of the
Speaker 6: overwhelming majority of people in the department. I'm not saying
Speaker 6: the FBI is free of problems, it certainly is not.
Speaker 6: But if you want to have somebody come in and
Speaker 6: fix it, correct the problems, reform it, straighten it up,
Speaker 6: pick somebody like William Webster, who, when Ronald Reagan appointed him,
Speaker 6: was a distinguished federal judge and has since written he
Speaker 6: doesn't think either Cash Betel or Tulsey Gabbert or fit
Speaker 6: for the jobs they've held. Pick somebody who's got a
Speaker 6: background of integrity and judgment, who's gonna resolve the problems
Speaker 6: you're worried about and not make the worse.
Speaker 5: John for some of the candidates are point ease that
Speaker 5: you have raised some flags on it. Do you believe
Speaker 5: the Senate will in fact challenge them going forward in
Speaker 5: the confirmation process.
Speaker 6: Well, I think there's a real chance of it. You know,
Speaker 6: the the idea that the president nominates somebody and that
Speaker 6: choice is automatically accepted by the Senate doesn't is born
Speaker 6: out by history. I think the president's entitled the real
Speaker 6: deference in his picks, particularly in terms of what the
Speaker 6: pointees think about policies. That's what the president was elected
Speaker 6: to do. But the function of the Senate, the Federalist
Speaker 6: papers make this very clear, is to make sure that
Speaker 6: people who lack character and competence don't get through. Now
Speaker 6: we're all waiting after the first of the year for
Speaker 6: the FBI full field background investigations to come in. That's
Speaker 6: going to be interesting to read for the senators on
Speaker 6: the key committees. And then they're going to be confirmation
Speaker 6: hearings where if senators Republican and Democratic are doing their jobs,
Speaker 6: they'll ask the nominee some hard questions. This is still
Speaker 6: a long way from being over.
Speaker 5: John, From a national security perspective, what do you think
Speaker 5: the to do list should be for this incoming administration?
Speaker 5: Maybe for the first one hundred days, if not longer.
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's a long list. I think the
Speaker 6: world is very threatening to American interest in a variety
Speaker 6: of places. Certainly the Middle East is on fire, the
Speaker 6: Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, the Chinese threat to Taiwan
Speaker 6: and the South China Sea remain, and I think there
Speaker 6: needs to be a real focus on going after those
Speaker 6: countries that have become adversaries of ours and putting in
Speaker 6: place both the policies we need to protect there, but
Speaker 6: also getting resources. Maybe the highest priority the president has
Speaker 6: is getting a better defense budget, a substantially larger defense budget.
Speaker 6: Not to say that there aren't savings that can be
Speaker 6: had at defense, There certainly can be. But we face
Speaker 6: threats that are rising around the world, and we've had,
Speaker 6: over a sustained period of time inadequate resources to do
Speaker 6: the job. Our military is way overstretched and we are vulnerable.
Speaker 2: It ways to go here, joining us folks as John Bolton,
Speaker 2: of course you know him from as many years of
Speaker 2: service to America. Always controversial, always interesting, and opinionated as well.
Speaker 2: In nineteen sixty four at the McDonough's school, Owings Mills, Maryland,
Speaker 2: he ran the students for Goldwater campaign. You know, did
Speaker 2: John to go back to your first public service as
Speaker 2: a summer intern from the Vice President from Maryland, Mister Agnew,
Speaker 2: you've seen some White House movement away from the uproar
Speaker 2: of the first Trump administration. You were articulate about the generals,
Speaker 2: the admirals. It's surrounded President Trump in his first term.
Speaker 2: The military has now seen the Trump process. Can he
Speaker 2: get the same quality military advice now that he got
Speaker 2: in January six years or eight years ago.
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's open to question. I think part
Speaker 6: of the Trump effect is to try and intimidate people
Speaker 6: to prevent them from speaking out. I hope that's not
Speaker 6: the case. The civilian relationship is critical for our national security,
Speaker 6: and civilian leadership obviously is dominant, but it depends on
Speaker 6: getting straightforward, honest military advice, and if the Chairman of
Speaker 6: the Joint Chiefs, the other Joint Chiefs, the bat and
Speaker 6: commanders continue to provide that. Obviously it's up for the
Speaker 6: President to make the final decision, but they need to
Speaker 6: tell him what the facts are, whether he wants to
Speaker 6: hear him or not.
Speaker 5: Do you think that what is your confidence level that
Speaker 5: that will occur this second time around, because there are
Speaker 5: some concerns out there that in this second Trump administration
Speaker 5: he'll be more authoritative, he'll have more confidence in his moves,
Speaker 5: maybe at the expensive advice from others.
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's very likely that will happen, but
Speaker 6: you can't tell until the rubber meets the road. We
Speaker 6: need to know who the Secretary of Defense is going
Speaker 6: to be that's not resolved yet either, and know a
Speaker 6: lot more about what the other top civilian officials that
Speaker 6: defense are going to look like. But I think there
Speaker 6: are going to be crises that are going to require
Speaker 6: some pretty tough politico military decisions very early in Trump's term.
Speaker 6: We don't get to call the shots on when things
Speaker 6: in the wider world happen. It could happen on day one.
Speaker 3: In Besser Bolden. One final question.
Speaker 2: This is for Nick Wadhams in Washington, and it's on
Speaker 2: the machinery here. I see Iran pulling out of Syria.
Speaker 2: It's unfair to you because I guess you don't have
Speaker 2: all the present intelligence. But is it legitimate that Iran
Speaker 2: is retrenching from the greater Middle East?
Speaker 6: Look, Iran is in deep trouble. It's been dealt punishing
Speaker 6: blows by Israel against Hamas and Hezbela, two terrorist proxies
Speaker 6: that were major elements of Iranian patower. The fall of
Speaker 6: the Aside regime in Syria, it's a third critical blow.
Speaker 6: I think the Iotolas are on the back foot now,
Speaker 6: and this is a point to press them hard. It
Speaker 6: may well be the regime itself is shaking. At the
Speaker 6: same time, we've got to worry about making sure that
Speaker 6: the new government in Syria doesn't establish a terrorist state,
Speaker 6: a kind of Afghanistan on the Mediterranean. Something we need
Speaker 6: to pay a lot of attention to We've got a
Speaker 6: lot at stake.
Speaker 2: There, John Bolton, thank you so much for joining us today.
Speaker 2: We look forward to speaking to you again, the former
Speaker 2: Ambassador John Bolton.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Survey Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: We are thrilled to start the year with one of
Speaker 2: the great academics, of course, with the University of Oxford
Speaker 2: and always forever associated with the Financial Times.
Speaker 3: John K joins us.
Speaker 2: The new book is The Corporation in the twenty first Century.
Speaker 2: John K, thank you so much for joining us. My
Speaker 2: great theme here is the distrust in America of corporations,
Speaker 2: and to me, it's the monopsony of it all, the
Speaker 2: combination the inevitable transactions that lead to corporate power. Where
Speaker 2: are we on the cycle of capitalism in terms of
Speaker 2: the ever greater power of our corporations.
Speaker 7: I think we're not going to go play, but I
Speaker 7: wouldn't put as much emphasis as you do on the
Speaker 7: greater power of corporations, the greater power of the corporate sector. Yes,
Speaker 7: but the greater power of corporations. People exaggerate over people
Speaker 7: exaggerate the permanence of dominance of industries. It's quite amusing
Speaker 7: to watch at the moment the death rows in effect
Speaker 7: of traditional US Steel, which was when it was formed
Speaker 7: a century ago, the larger, by far, the most valuable
Speaker 7: corporation in the world. You were talking earlier about Nvidia,
Speaker 7: Everyone's favorite of the moment. It's quite hard for me
Speaker 7: to see how that dominance can be maintained for long
Speaker 7: enough to justify the three point seven trillion dollar market
Speaker 7: cap they've achieved. And of course, the great corporation in
Speaker 7: the first half of the twentieth century was General Motors,
Speaker 7: which doesn't even dominate the model the world automobile.
Speaker 2: Okay, how do you how do you determine when to
Speaker 2: get off the bend wagon? How do you determine when
Speaker 2: to exit? Generous Motors? How do you determine when to exit?
Speaker 2: Maybe British Telecom? How do you determine when to exit?
Speaker 3: In video?
Speaker 7: It's almost when there's no one left to be convinced.
Speaker 7: I have a strong memory of early two thousand and
Speaker 7: going to that Davis conference of the International Business Elite
Speaker 7: then and that was at the peak of the dot
Speaker 7: com boo, and I thought, there is no one left
Speaker 7: to be convinced that this is a permanent change. And
Speaker 7: I thought, that's a signal that this is the top.
Speaker 7: And of course it was within two or three months
Speaker 7: of that the great dot com.
Speaker 3: Do you feel that now? Do you feel that now
Speaker 3: about AI?
Speaker 7: I do feel that about AI. I mean AI is
Speaker 7: important and will change. And indeed, back into a thousand,
Speaker 7: I was unduly skeptical about the impact that the Internet
Speaker 7: would have on business. But the impact it had owned
Speaker 7: business was not an impact in two thousand and one.
Speaker 7: In two thousand and two, it was the impact that
Speaker 7: we're still gradually seeing as online retailer and online information
Speaker 7: acquisition took over. My life has been changed a lot
Speaker 7: by the Internet, but it's over twenty years, not over
Speaker 7: two john.
Speaker 5: Generations of managers, executives, board members, investors have been brought
Speaker 5: up in this concept of the responsibility of corporation is
Speaker 5: the maximize shareholder value? Is that still the case in
Speaker 5: your mind?
Speaker 7: What's the case in my mind is that the responsibility
Speaker 7: of executives in a corporation is to build great businesses.
Speaker 7: The truth is, if we're saying, how do you maximize
Speaker 7: shareholder value, which is a product of the profit the
Speaker 7: business will earn over even in a pessimistic view twenty
Speaker 7: thirty years, on an optimistic view fifty or two hundred years,
Speaker 7: no one can do that kind of sum. What executives
Speaker 7: should be doing is building great businesses and then shareholder
Speaker 7: value will follow from that. That's the story of Boeing,
Speaker 7: which is a good illustration of the problem. In the
Speaker 7: second half of the twentieth century, what we saw was
Speaker 7: Boeing Boeing with Bill Allen, who was CEO for Boeing
Speaker 7: for a time, said we live to eat, breathe and
Speaker 7: sleep the world ab aeronautics. That was what we did,
Speaker 7: and they built a great business with planes that revolutionize
Speaker 7: the aviation industry and everyone's lives. From two thousand they
Speaker 7: took a rather different view. Irby Stun famously said, people
Speaker 7: say this is a great engineering business. It is a
Speaker 7: great engineering business. But people invest in a company because
Speaker 7: they went to want to make money. Well, for a time,
Speaker 7: they did make money, but they craded in effect the
Speaker 7: reputation of the company for short term monetization. Actually, we
Speaker 7: see a lot of private equity people doing just that today.
Speaker 2: We have to leave it there, John K. But thank
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us. The book is a
Speaker 2: corporation in the twenty first century. I can't say enough
Speaker 2: about it, thought provoking tone, why almost everything.
Speaker 3: We are told about business is wrong? John K. And
Speaker 3: we'll look for that book in the coming weeks.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay, and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: Take a look at different pages of Lisa Matteo our Lisa,
Speaker 2: what do you have?
Speaker 8: Okay, So we are in day three of New York
Speaker 8: City's congestion pricing. Okay, so this is how it's going.
Speaker 8: The New York Post is saying drivers are coming up with,
Speaker 8: i should say, creative ways to kind of beat the system.
Speaker 8: They're basically hiding their license plates. So the New York
Speaker 8: Post they spotted a few of these. They're covering like
Speaker 8: a single digit and the license plate to make it
Speaker 8: look like another one. They scratch it out, they paint
Speaker 8: over it, they put tape over it, they use this
Speaker 8: translucent glue to make it harder to read. They're doing
Speaker 8: all these different things, attaching those like fake dealer plates
Speaker 8: that can be taken off and put back on. And
Speaker 8: then you have the ones with the flate clippers that
Speaker 8: has the button inside the car that you press and
Speaker 8: the stuff so it gives a different number. But they're
Speaker 8: doing all these different things. We are not promoting this.
Speaker 8: I just want to say that because there could be
Speaker 8: a five hundred dollars Fine, yes, if you get to
Speaker 8: doing this, but it just goes to show you how people,
Speaker 8: how it's affecting, you know, so many different people. They're
Speaker 8: going to these extents.
Speaker 2: The huge response General Lieber with us yesterday from the
Speaker 2: MT is a classic answered yep, some tough.
Speaker 3: Questions, yep. He was there.
Speaker 5: And so we'll see how this plays out. But it
Speaker 5: seems to kind of be working so far. I haven't
Speaker 5: seen any major problems.
Speaker 8: But next we shall see day three going into day
Speaker 8: four tomorrow. Okay, so this new study, you know that
Speaker 8: what they call the Sandwich generation, those who are caring
Speaker 8: for the young kids as well as the older aging
Speaker 8: parents at the same time. So the study says that
Speaker 8: it's starting to affect their mental physical health. It's a
Speaker 8: UK study because this is from Financial Times, but it
Speaker 8: really shows similar things that are happening here in the US,
Speaker 8: typically those between the ages of thirty and forty nine.
Speaker 8: With some of those listeners who are experiencing this, so
Speaker 8: it just shows that their mental health is kind of
Speaker 8: deteriorating faster than others who don't have to kind of
Speaker 8: jungle both of these different sides of the fact with
Speaker 8: childcare and aging parent care and those who did it
Speaker 8: like twenty or more hours a week. But it just
Speaker 8: shows that more help is needed for some of these
Speaker 8: folks workplace flexibility. Also, it's a big debate later that's
Speaker 8: the reason why. Yeah, they're having kids later, So now
Speaker 8: they're at this age where their parents are aging, but
Speaker 8: yet they have kids who are like two, three, four,
Speaker 8: five years old and the parents are living longer.
Speaker 5: So yeah, and the parents living.
Speaker 8: With younger episode becoming a big big thing. You talked
Speaker 8: about the Greenland, right, so we got to go there.
Speaker 8: Donald Trump Junior said to go over there. He made
Speaker 8: the announcement Journey show last night on the Rumble platform.
Speaker 8: So he said it's a very long personal day trip.
Speaker 8: He said he's not meeting with anyone in particular. Sources
Speaker 8: are telling the Washington Post they had this story that
Speaker 8: he's going to just shoot some video for his podcast.
Speaker 8: But Foreign Minister, I'd say, it's an open country. They
Speaker 8: welcome all visitors. But you know the tension, right, you
Speaker 8: had Donald Trump who said, you know Greenland, the ownership
Speaker 8: of control of Greenland is a necessity. Then you had
Speaker 8: the Prime Minister of fruing back and saying that it's
Speaker 8: not for sale, it never will be for sale. So
Speaker 8: a lot of tension there. But he's apparently going to
Speaker 8: be there today.
Speaker 5: The Prime Minister says the island is not for sale
Speaker 5: and he will never be for sale, not at all.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well he can show up and he can have
Speaker 2: the the I can't grill it ulven de brud mager skika,
Speaker 2: dijon vestor avosta krim. That's the croc madame ninety five whatever,
Speaker 2: ninety five euros krona.
Speaker 3: It's corona, it's crona.
Speaker 5: It's going to get Danish.
Speaker 3: You're nail on ith.
Speaker 5: My gosh, that's.
Speaker 2: The Morgan mad, which I think is breakfast at the
Speaker 2: Esmeralda Cafe.
Speaker 3: No Greenland, it's Paus Gooing. He's on icelandic Cours day trip.
Speaker 8: What do you drink with that?
Speaker 2: Well, let me look down here at the bottom, at
Speaker 2: the bottom, there's a long menu.
Speaker 3: At the Esmarada they have the Boo okay, the Granlin
Speaker 3: schlemonbouf nasak. I have no idea what that is.
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo, thank you so much for the newspapers today.
Speaker 2: Greatly appreciate that, particularly Greenland.
Speaker 3: I'm learning formative.
Speaker 5: I know it's close by, I don't know it's so close.
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