1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

2
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

3
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000
Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

4
00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

5
00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,000
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,960
Speaker 2: He writes an exceptionally intelligent note at Morgan Stanley, Matthew

7
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 2: Hornback joins us Right.

8
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,000
Speaker 3: Now, Man, I got a problem.

9
00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,440
Speaker 2: Everybody from Stolfus over to OpCo down to the gloom

10
00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 2: at the lower end is optimistic this year.

11
00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,120
Speaker 3: Is your Hornback radar up?

12
00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,120
Speaker 4: Hey, Tom, thanks for having me on the show. Well,

13
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,760
Speaker 4: my radar is always off. It's just a matter of

14
00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 4: whether whether it's the end of the year or whether

15
00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,240
Speaker 4: it's the beginning of the year. But the radar is up,

16
00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,040
Speaker 4: and I do think that there are going to be

17
00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 4: some interesting opportunities twenty twenty five.

18
00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,759
Speaker 5: All right, let's go there, matt Global head of Macro Strategy.

19
00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,960
Speaker 5: That means you can go anywhere, anytime and look at

20
00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,119
Speaker 5: any asset. What's your twenty twenty five lead right here?

21
00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:18,039
Speaker 4: Well, I think one of the expectations investors are bringing

22
00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,320
Speaker 4: into this year is that is that you know it's

23
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,160
Speaker 4: all it's all good and and and and there's nothing bad.

24
00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:27,319
Speaker 4: And that may be the case by the time we

25
00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:30,560
Speaker 4: get to the end of twenty twenty five. Nothing bad

26
00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:32,640
Speaker 4: may it may have happened. But you know, when we

27
00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:37,399
Speaker 4: talk about things like a recession, obviously nobody talks about

28
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,039
Speaker 4: recession anymore because it hasn't happened. But I'm actually less

29
00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,800
Speaker 4: focused on the probability of a recession. What what I

30
00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:51,400
Speaker 4: am worried about is that we may have more recession scares.

31
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 4: You know, if you think about the past eighteen months,

32
00:01:54,560 --> 00:02:00,280
Speaker 4: we've had one recession scare every six months. Every six months,

33
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:05,240
Speaker 4: the bond market prices in a very aggressive reduction in

34
00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:09,760
Speaker 4: the Fed's policy rate. Now that aggressive reduction doesn't come

35
00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:13,320
Speaker 4: to pass, the economy ends up hanging in there just fine.

36
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,720
Speaker 4: But for markets, which is what I focus on, you know,

37
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 4: we have to be worried about being worried and think

38
00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,760
Speaker 4: about where we end up at the end of that.

39
00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,320
Speaker 2: Okay, we've got a frame out here. Paul Hornback is

40
00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,280
Speaker 2: like was running you know, he's with Robbie Feldman running Japan.

41
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:35,160
Speaker 2: Years ago at Morgan Stanley. He was doing Japan, doing

42
00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,200
Speaker 2: the end doing trade he probably flowing in Japan at

43
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,160
Speaker 2: the same time as a CMT. He's like a market technician.

44
00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,480
Speaker 2: Oh boy, Matt, we're going to walk right now. I

45
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,959
Speaker 2: got to impress Tim Kraig. He just walked in the

46
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:50,360
Speaker 2: studio here on a semi log NDX. I have support

47
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 2: on my climate exponential moving averages. Are you ready a

48
00:02:54,880 --> 00:03:00,080
Speaker 2: thirty five percent drop from here? How extended is the NDX.

49
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,400
Speaker 4: Oh, I think it's It seems pretty extended for sure.

50
00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,560
Speaker 4: One of the things that's also very extended related to

51
00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,600
Speaker 4: Japan is dollar yen. You know, dollar yen in the

52
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:17,720
Speaker 4: high one fifties is a understandable why it's there. The

53
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,120
Speaker 4: rate differentials are still wide. People expect the US to

54
00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:25,880
Speaker 4: remain exceptional, but I was just in Japan over the holidays,

55
00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:31,240
Speaker 4: and it is exceptionally affordable. Given where the currency is,

56
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,880
Speaker 4: it just doesn't make much fundamental sense for the currency

57
00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,640
Speaker 4: to be so weak. And so I would say one

58
00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,200
Speaker 4: thing that I would be looking for quite a decline

59
00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,839
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five is the dollar yen exchange rate.

60
00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,240
Speaker 4: I think that can very easily go below one forty

61
00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:51,760
Speaker 4: by the time we get to the end of twenty

62
00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:52,360
Speaker 4: twenty five.

63
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:53,960
Speaker 3: That's a big figure move.

64
00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 5: That is a big figure move, and we haven't seen

65
00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 5: that got the one to fifty seven spot seventy. Hey, Matt,

66
00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,520
Speaker 5: the good friends at Morgan Stanley are are you guys

67
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:08,240
Speaker 5: seeing fun flows coming into the US, say from European investments,

68
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,640
Speaker 5: from Greenland and other parts in Europe.

69
00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,760
Speaker 4: Well, I would say there's a lot of flows coming

70
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 4: into Goldland, not necessarily Greenland, but but but certainly you

71
00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,719
Speaker 4: know that the dollar does benefit when investors are looking

72
00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:29,240
Speaker 4: to allocate into either a safety like gold or West treasuries,

73
00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:31,480
Speaker 4: the dollar is going to benefit. So in that sense,

74
00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:36,480
Speaker 4: Greenland and Goldland are are highly correlated at this moment.

75
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,120
Speaker 4: When you see US interest rates going up, you also

76
00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,520
Speaker 4: see the US dollar appreciating. Uh, there's more real return

77
00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:46,880
Speaker 4: offered in the US. And and even if they don't

78
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,320
Speaker 4: really hear that much about real return, you can just

79
00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:49,960
Speaker 4: go buy gold.

80
00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,159
Speaker 2: One final question, I want to swing it to Japan,

81
00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,359
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna stand US dollar. Matt Hornbach to me,

82
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,040
Speaker 2: it's a non linear move on d X y it

83
00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,640
Speaker 2: won one nine. Are we getting up to where there's

84
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,039
Speaker 2: a kink where there's a movement off dollar index or

85
00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,839
Speaker 2: can it be a smooth ride to higher and strong dollar.

86
00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,800
Speaker 4: Well, no, I think if you look at the dollar

87
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,719
Speaker 4: over the past couple of years, it has been anything

88
00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:19,080
Speaker 4: but smooth there. You know, the dollar has largely been

89
00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:24,200
Speaker 4: range bound, and that's a large part because interest rates

90
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,800
Speaker 4: have been largely range bound since the Fed stopped their

91
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:33,600
Speaker 4: hiking cycle back in July of twenty twenty three. So

92
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,640
Speaker 4: it's it's been a range bound market. It's definitely not

93
00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,479
Speaker 4: been smooth. Twenty five is not expected to be a

94
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,159
Speaker 4: smooth year for the dollar. But but that's where a

95
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,359
Speaker 4: surprise could could could come to the foe is the

96
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,680
Speaker 4: dollar could actually could could move lower in a more

97
00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,560
Speaker 4: smooth fashion because ultimately we think the Fed, the Fed

98
00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,120
Speaker 4: is going to continue to lower rates and buy more

99
00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,479
Speaker 4: than what you see priced into the market today.

100
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,360
Speaker 3: Okay, Matt, thank you.

101
00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,920
Speaker 2: Matt hornback with a brief here to get us started

102
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:10,400
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five. He is with Morgan Stanley.

103
00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

104
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,520
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

105
00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:23,000
Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

106
00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,440
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube when.

107
00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,360
Speaker 2: You grow up the son of a fireman. You've got

108
00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,080
Speaker 2: that irascible kind of thing. John Bolton from the very

109
00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:36,159
Speaker 2: beginning has been someone of opinion, and he's been someone

110
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,599
Speaker 2: who said it as clear as he can. People that

111
00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,400
Speaker 2: are for John Bolton, his critics as well see a

112
00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:48,720
Speaker 2: distinguished career in public service, and he has been very

113
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 2: visible in the last number of weeks on the formation

114
00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,520
Speaker 2: of the second Trump administration. Cabina, John, thank you so

115
00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 2: much for joining Bloomberg today.

116
00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 3: I'm just going to cut to the chase.

117
00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 2: Sometimes you write an essay and then you wrote in

118
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal an essay on mister Patel, who

119
00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:11,040
Speaker 2: is being considered to run the FBI, and line by

120
00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:12,880
Speaker 2: line you went through it.

121
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:13,760
Speaker 3: Why did you.

122
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,720
Speaker 2: Put that much energy into that essay on mister Patel

123
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,680
Speaker 2: are potential leader of the FBI.

124
00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 6: Well being Director of the FBI is one of the

125
00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 6: most important jobs in government, and it's been held by

126
00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 6: some distinguished people and by some people who are not

127
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,520
Speaker 6: so distinguished. But the power in that job is just enormous,

128
00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,239
Speaker 6: and I wanted to show why, in my view, Patel

129
00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:42,800
Speaker 6: wasn't qualified, not in terms of his competence or his experience,

130
00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,360
Speaker 6: or his character. I just thought it was important for

131
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,000
Speaker 6: senators to have that in mind.

132
00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,840
Speaker 3: The senators are the key. I can state, folks.

133
00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,760
Speaker 2: My book of the year a number of years ago, ready,

134
00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,840
Speaker 2: twelve years ago, eleven years ago, Garrett Graf The Threat

135
00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:02,120
Speaker 2: Max Matrix, The FBI at War. It is a spectacular

136
00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:07,160
Speaker 2: five hundred pages on the complexity of the FBI. John Boltons,

137
00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:11,280
Speaker 2: You believe that the president elect doesn't understand the day

138
00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,679
Speaker 2: to day grind of what the FBI does.

139
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Trump has very little understanding how most

140
00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,160
Speaker 6: of the government operates. He never took the time to

141
00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,720
Speaker 6: learn it. He didn't know much before he became president,

142
00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 6: and he didn't learn very much when he was president.

143
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:29,600
Speaker 6: The FBI has roughly, I don't know, thirty eight forty

144
00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,240
Speaker 6: thousand employees, most of whom spend their time working on

145
00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,440
Speaker 6: investigating real crimes or real threats to the United States

146
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 6: from overseas. And the idea that you're going to unleash

147
00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,840
Speaker 6: somebody whose main job, in Trump's view is hunting down

148
00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:50,440
Speaker 6: Trump's enemies really demeans the incredibly important work of the

149
00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,439
Speaker 6: overwhelming majority of people in the department. I'm not saying

150
00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,440
Speaker 6: the FBI is free of problems, it certainly is not.

151
00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,120
Speaker 6: But if you want to have somebody come in and

152
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:04,000
Speaker 6: fix it, correct the problems, reform it, straighten it up,

153
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:08,560
Speaker 6: pick somebody like William Webster, who, when Ronald Reagan appointed him,

154
00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:15,320
Speaker 6: was a distinguished federal judge and has since written he

155
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,160
Speaker 6: doesn't think either Cash Betel or Tulsey Gabbert or fit

156
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,840
Speaker 6: for the jobs they've held. Pick somebody who's got a

157
00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:26,720
Speaker 6: background of integrity and judgment, who's gonna resolve the problems

158
00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,320
Speaker 6: you're worried about and not make the worse.

159
00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:34,120
Speaker 5: John for some of the candidates are point ease that

160
00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,440
Speaker 5: you have raised some flags on it. Do you believe

161
00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 5: the Senate will in fact challenge them going forward in

162
00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:42,559
Speaker 5: the confirmation process.

163
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,320
Speaker 6: Well, I think there's a real chance of it. You know,

164
00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 6: the the idea that the president nominates somebody and that

165
00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,880
Speaker 6: choice is automatically accepted by the Senate doesn't is born

166
00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,200
Speaker 6: out by history. I think the president's entitled the real

167
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,760
Speaker 6: deference in his picks, particularly in terms of what the

168
00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:04,200
Speaker 6: pointees think about policies. That's what the president was elected

169
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 6: to do. But the function of the Senate, the Federalist

170
00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,840
Speaker 6: papers make this very clear, is to make sure that

171
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:14,040
Speaker 6: people who lack character and competence don't get through. Now

172
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 6: we're all waiting after the first of the year for

173
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:21,000
Speaker 6: the FBI full field background investigations to come in. That's

174
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,680
Speaker 6: going to be interesting to read for the senators on

175
00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,640
Speaker 6: the key committees. And then they're going to be confirmation

176
00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:31,160
Speaker 6: hearings where if senators Republican and Democratic are doing their jobs,

177
00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 6: they'll ask the nominee some hard questions. This is still

178
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:36,160
Speaker 6: a long way from being over.

179
00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,800
Speaker 5: John, From a national security perspective, what do you think

180
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,760
Speaker 5: the to do list should be for this incoming administration?

181
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,160
Speaker 5: Maybe for the first one hundred days, if not longer.

182
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,440
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's a long list. I think the

183
00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,720
Speaker 6: world is very threatening to American interest in a variety

184
00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,800
Speaker 6: of places. Certainly the Middle East is on fire, the

185
00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,600
Speaker 6: Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, the Chinese threat to Taiwan

186
00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,720
Speaker 6: and the South China Sea remain, and I think there

187
00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,920
Speaker 6: needs to be a real focus on going after those

188
00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,200
Speaker 6: countries that have become adversaries of ours and putting in

189
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,760
Speaker 6: place both the policies we need to protect there, but

190
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,880
Speaker 6: also getting resources. Maybe the highest priority the president has

191
00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,160
Speaker 6: is getting a better defense budget, a substantially larger defense budget.

192
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,679
Speaker 6: Not to say that there aren't savings that can be

193
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 6: had at defense, There certainly can be. But we face

194
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,880
Speaker 6: threats that are rising around the world, and we've had,

195
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,720
Speaker 6: over a sustained period of time inadequate resources to do

196
00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,719
Speaker 6: the job. Our military is way overstretched and we are vulnerable.

197
00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 2: It ways to go here, joining us folks as John Bolton,

198
00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,040
Speaker 2: of course you know him from as many years of

199
00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:53,480
Speaker 2: service to America. Always controversial, always interesting, and opinionated as well.

200
00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:57,120
Speaker 2: In nineteen sixty four at the McDonough's school, Owings Mills, Maryland,

201
00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,640
Speaker 2: he ran the students for Goldwater campaign. You know, did

202
00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,920
Speaker 2: John to go back to your first public service as

203
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:08,120
Speaker 2: a summer intern from the Vice President from Maryland, Mister Agnew,

204
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 2: you've seen some White House movement away from the uproar

205
00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:17,360
Speaker 2: of the first Trump administration. You were articulate about the generals,

206
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:22,240
Speaker 2: the admirals. It's surrounded President Trump in his first term.

207
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 2: The military has now seen the Trump process. Can he

208
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,120
Speaker 2: get the same quality military advice now that he got

209
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,000
Speaker 2: in January six years or eight years ago.

210
00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:37,760
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's open to question. I think part

211
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 6: of the Trump effect is to try and intimidate people

212
00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,080
Speaker 6: to prevent them from speaking out. I hope that's not

213
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:49,559
Speaker 6: the case. The civilian relationship is critical for our national security,

214
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:53,280
Speaker 6: and civilian leadership obviously is dominant, but it depends on

215
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:58,160
Speaker 6: getting straightforward, honest military advice, and if the Chairman of

216
00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,440
Speaker 6: the Joint Chiefs, the other Joint Chiefs, the bat and

217
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 6: commanders continue to provide that. Obviously it's up for the

218
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,120
Speaker 6: President to make the final decision, but they need to

219
00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,200
Speaker 6: tell him what the facts are, whether he wants to

220
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 6: hear him or not.

221
00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,840
Speaker 5: Do you think that what is your confidence level that

222
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,200
Speaker 5: that will occur this second time around, because there are

223
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,199
Speaker 5: some concerns out there that in this second Trump administration

224
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,839
Speaker 5: he'll be more authoritative, he'll have more confidence in his moves,

225
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,040
Speaker 5: maybe at the expensive advice from others.

226
00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:31,600
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's very likely that will happen, but

227
00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,760
Speaker 6: you can't tell until the rubber meets the road. We

228
00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:35,840
Speaker 6: need to know who the Secretary of Defense is going

229
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,440
Speaker 6: to be that's not resolved yet either, and know a

230
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,199
Speaker 6: lot more about what the other top civilian officials that

231
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,560
Speaker 6: defense are going to look like. But I think there

232
00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,680
Speaker 6: are going to be crises that are going to require

233
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:50,080
Speaker 6: some pretty tough politico military decisions very early in Trump's term.

234
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,160
Speaker 6: We don't get to call the shots on when things

235
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,160
Speaker 6: in the wider world happen. It could happen on day one.

236
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,000
Speaker 3: In Besser Bolden. One final question.

237
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,880
Speaker 2: This is for Nick Wadhams in Washington, and it's on

238
00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,679
Speaker 2: the machinery here. I see Iran pulling out of Syria.

239
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,160
Speaker 2: It's unfair to you because I guess you don't have

240
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,000
Speaker 2: all the present intelligence. But is it legitimate that Iran

241
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,640
Speaker 2: is retrenching from the greater Middle East?

242
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,680
Speaker 6: Look, Iran is in deep trouble. It's been dealt punishing

243
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 6: blows by Israel against Hamas and Hezbela, two terrorist proxies

244
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,520
Speaker 6: that were major elements of Iranian patower. The fall of

245
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,840
Speaker 6: the Aside regime in Syria, it's a third critical blow.

246
00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 6: I think the Iotolas are on the back foot now,

247
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,680
Speaker 6: and this is a point to press them hard. It

248
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,560
Speaker 6: may well be the regime itself is shaking. At the

249
00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 6: same time, we've got to worry about making sure that

250
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,360
Speaker 6: the new government in Syria doesn't establish a terrorist state,

251
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 6: a kind of Afghanistan on the Mediterranean. Something we need

252
00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,240
Speaker 6: to pay a lot of attention to We've got a

253
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:51,119
Speaker 6: lot at stake.

254
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 2: There, John Bolton, thank you so much for joining us today.

255
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 2: We look forward to speaking to you again, the former

256
00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,440
Speaker 2: Ambassador John Bolton.

257
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:02,400
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Survey Podcast. Listen live each weekday

258
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:05,480
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

259
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

260
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,840
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

261
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,040
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

262
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,120
Speaker 2: We are thrilled to start the year with one of

263
00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 2: the great academics, of course, with the University of Oxford

264
00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,320
Speaker 2: and always forever associated with the Financial Times.

265
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 3: John K joins us.

266
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:30,880
Speaker 2: The new book is The Corporation in the twenty first Century.

267
00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,160
Speaker 2: John K, thank you so much for joining us. My

268
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 2: great theme here is the distrust in America of corporations,

269
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 2: and to me, it's the monopsony of it all, the

270
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:50,400
Speaker 2: combination the inevitable transactions that lead to corporate power. Where

271
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 2: are we on the cycle of capitalism in terms of

272
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 2: the ever greater power of our corporations.

273
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,360
Speaker 7: I think we're not going to go play, but I

274
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 7: wouldn't put as much emphasis as you do on the

275
00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 7: greater power of corporations, the greater power of the corporate sector. Yes,

276
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 7: but the greater power of corporations. People exaggerate over people

277
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:21,880
Speaker 7: exaggerate the permanence of dominance of industries. It's quite amusing

278
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,320
Speaker 7: to watch at the moment the death rows in effect

279
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,560
Speaker 7: of traditional US Steel, which was when it was formed

280
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 7: a century ago, the larger, by far, the most valuable

281
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 7: corporation in the world. You were talking earlier about Nvidia,

282
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 7: Everyone's favorite of the moment. It's quite hard for me

283
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 7: to see how that dominance can be maintained for long

284
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:51,160
Speaker 7: enough to justify the three point seven trillion dollar market

285
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 7: cap they've achieved. And of course, the great corporation in

286
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 7: the first half of the twentieth century was General Motors,

287
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 7: which doesn't even dominate the model the world automobile.

288
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 2: Okay, how do you how do you determine when to

289
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 2: get off the bend wagon? How do you determine when

290
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 2: to exit? Generous Motors? How do you determine when to exit?

291
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:22,400
Speaker 2: Maybe British Telecom? How do you determine when to exit?

292
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 3: In video?

293
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:29,960
Speaker 7: It's almost when there's no one left to be convinced.

294
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,960
Speaker 7: I have a strong memory of early two thousand and

295
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:38,440
Speaker 7: going to that Davis conference of the International Business Elite

296
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,160
Speaker 7: then and that was at the peak of the dot

297
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,879
Speaker 7: com boo, and I thought, there is no one left

298
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,919
Speaker 7: to be convinced that this is a permanent change. And

299
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 7: I thought, that's a signal that this is the top.

300
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 7: And of course it was within two or three months

301
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,160
Speaker 7: of that the great dot com.

302
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 3: Do you feel that now? Do you feel that now

303
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 3: about AI?

304
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 7: I do feel that about AI. I mean AI is

305
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 7: important and will change. And indeed, back into a thousand,

306
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 7: I was unduly skeptical about the impact that the Internet

307
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 7: would have on business. But the impact it had owned

308
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 7: business was not an impact in two thousand and one.

309
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,719
Speaker 7: In two thousand and two, it was the impact that

310
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 7: we're still gradually seeing as online retailer and online information

311
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 7: acquisition took over. My life has been changed a lot

312
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 7: by the Internet, but it's over twenty years, not over

313
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 7: two john.

314
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 5: Generations of managers, executives, board members, investors have been brought

315
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,639
Speaker 5: up in this concept of the responsibility of corporation is

316
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 5: the maximize shareholder value? Is that still the case in

317
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 5: your mind?

318
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 7: What's the case in my mind is that the responsibility

319
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 7: of executives in a corporation is to build great businesses.

320
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 7: The truth is, if we're saying, how do you maximize

321
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 7: shareholder value, which is a product of the profit the

322
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,359
Speaker 7: business will earn over even in a pessimistic view twenty

323
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,679
Speaker 7: thirty years, on an optimistic view fifty or two hundred years,

324
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 7: no one can do that kind of sum. What executives

325
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 7: should be doing is building great businesses and then shareholder

326
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 7: value will follow from that. That's the story of Boeing,

327
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 7: which is a good illustration of the problem. In the

328
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 7: second half of the twentieth century, what we saw was

329
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 7: Boeing Boeing with Bill Allen, who was CEO for Boeing

330
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 7: for a time, said we live to eat, breathe and

331
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 7: sleep the world ab aeronautics. That was what we did,

332
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 7: and they built a great business with planes that revolutionize

333
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 7: the aviation industry and everyone's lives. From two thousand they

334
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 7: took a rather different view. Irby Stun famously said, people

335
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 7: say this is a great engineering business. It is a

336
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 7: great engineering business. But people invest in a company because

337
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 7: they went to want to make money. Well, for a time,

338
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 7: they did make money, but they craded in effect the

339
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 7: reputation of the company for short term monetization. Actually, we

340
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 7: see a lot of private equity people doing just that today.

341
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 2: We have to leave it there, John K. But thank

342
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us. The book is a

343
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 2: corporation in the twenty first century. I can't say enough

344
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: about it, thought provoking tone, why almost everything.

345
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 3: We are told about business is wrong? John K. And

346
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 3: we'll look for that book in the coming weeks.

347
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

348
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,439
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay, and Android

349
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

350
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

351
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

352
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 2: Take a look at different pages of Lisa Matteo our Lisa,

353
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 2: what do you have?

354
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 8: Okay, So we are in day three of New York

355
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 8: City's congestion pricing. Okay, so this is how it's going.

356
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 8: The New York Post is saying drivers are coming up with,

357
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,400
Speaker 8: i should say, creative ways to kind of beat the system.

358
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,479
Speaker 8: They're basically hiding their license plates. So the New York

359
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 8: Post they spotted a few of these. They're covering like

360
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 8: a single digit and the license plate to make it

361
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 8: look like another one. They scratch it out, they paint

362
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 8: over it, they put tape over it, they use this

363
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 8: translucent glue to make it harder to read. They're doing

364
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 8: all these different things, attaching those like fake dealer plates

365
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 8: that can be taken off and put back on. And

366
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 8: then you have the ones with the flate clippers that

367
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,919
Speaker 8: has the button inside the car that you press and

368
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 8: the stuff so it gives a different number. But they're

369
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 8: doing all these different things. We are not promoting this.

370
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 8: I just want to say that because there could be

371
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 8: a five hundred dollars Fine, yes, if you get to

372
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 8: doing this, but it just goes to show you how people,

373
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 8: how it's affecting, you know, so many different people. They're

374
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 8: going to these extents.

375
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 2: The huge response General Lieber with us yesterday from the

376
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 2: MT is a classic answered yep, some tough.

377
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 3: Questions, yep. He was there.

378
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 5: And so we'll see how this plays out. But it

379
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 5: seems to kind of be working so far. I haven't

380
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 5: seen any major problems.

381
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 8: But next we shall see day three going into day

382
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 8: four tomorrow. Okay, so this new study, you know that

383
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 8: what they call the Sandwich generation, those who are caring

384
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 8: for the young kids as well as the older aging

385
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 8: parents at the same time. So the study says that

386
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 8: it's starting to affect their mental physical health. It's a

387
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 8: UK study because this is from Financial Times, but it

388
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 8: really shows similar things that are happening here in the US,

389
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 8: typically those between the ages of thirty and forty nine.

390
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,239
Speaker 8: With some of those listeners who are experiencing this, so

391
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 8: it just shows that their mental health is kind of

392
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 8: deteriorating faster than others who don't have to kind of

393
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 8: jungle both of these different sides of the fact with

394
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 8: childcare and aging parent care and those who did it

395
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 8: like twenty or more hours a week. But it just

396
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 8: shows that more help is needed for some of these

397
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 8: folks workplace flexibility. Also, it's a big debate later that's

398
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 8: the reason why. Yeah, they're having kids later, So now

399
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 8: they're at this age where their parents are aging, but

400
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 8: yet they have kids who are like two, three, four,

401
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 8: five years old and the parents are living longer.

402
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 5: So yeah, and the parents living.

403
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 8: With younger episode becoming a big big thing. You talked

404
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 8: about the Greenland, right, so we got to go there.

405
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 8: Donald Trump Junior said to go over there. He made

406
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 8: the announcement Journey show last night on the Rumble platform.

407
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 8: So he said it's a very long personal day trip.

408
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 8: He said he's not meeting with anyone in particular. Sources

409
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 8: are telling the Washington Post they had this story that

410
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 8: he's going to just shoot some video for his podcast.

411
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 8: But Foreign Minister, I'd say, it's an open country. They

412
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 8: welcome all visitors. But you know the tension, right, you

413
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 8: had Donald Trump who said, you know Greenland, the ownership

414
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 8: of control of Greenland is a necessity. Then you had

415
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 8: the Prime Minister of fruing back and saying that it's

416
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 8: not for sale, it never will be for sale. So

417
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 8: a lot of tension there. But he's apparently going to

418
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 8: be there today.

419
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 5: The Prime Minister says the island is not for sale

420
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 5: and he will never be for sale, not at all.

421
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, well he can show up and he can have

422
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: the the I can't grill it ulven de brud mager skika,

423
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 2: dijon vestor avosta krim. That's the croc madame ninety five whatever,

424
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: ninety five euros krona.

425
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: It's corona, it's crona.

426
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 5: It's going to get Danish.

427
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 3: You're nail on ith.

428
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 5: My gosh, that's.

429
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 2: The Morgan mad, which I think is breakfast at the

430
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 2: Esmeralda Cafe.

431
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 3: No Greenland, it's Paus Gooing. He's on icelandic Cours day trip.

432
00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 8: What do you drink with that?

433
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: Well, let me look down here at the bottom, at

434
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: the bottom, there's a long menu.

435
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 3: At the Esmarada they have the Boo okay, the Granlin

436
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,959
Speaker 3: schlemonbouf nasak. I have no idea what that is.

437
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo, thank you so much for the newspapers today.

438
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 2: Greatly appreciate that, particularly Greenland.

439
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 3: I'm learning formative.

440
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 5: I know it's close by, I don't know it's so close.

441
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

442
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

443
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

444
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

445
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

446
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.