WEBVTT - Lead Negotiator of Previous Iran Deal on the Odds of Another

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>On Monday night, President Trump announced on Truth Social that

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<v Speaker 2>he'd help negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Then

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<v Speaker 2>on Tuesday, the President criticized both countries for threatening that

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<v Speaker 2>fragile pause.

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<v Speaker 1>It just feels like there are so many ways in

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<v Speaker 1>which this thing could unwind.

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<v Speaker 2>Nick Wadhams covers national security for.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg, and it feels like we're very far from a

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<v Speaker 1>situation where we'd be able to enter into diplomacy to

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<v Speaker 1>come to some sort of longer term resolution.

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<v Speaker 2>But even if a diplomatic solution seems out of reach,

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<v Speaker 2>it has happened before. About a decade ago, months of

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action the JCPOA.

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<v Speaker 3>In February of twenty fifteen, when the negotiations were at

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<v Speaker 3>a bit of a standstill, President Obama decided that I

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<v Speaker 3>would join Secretary Kerry, the Secretary of State, in the talks.

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<v Speaker 2>Ernest Monese played a big role in those talks as

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<v Speaker 2>President Obama's Energy secretary. He's also a nuclear physicist. Today

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<v Speaker 2>he's the head of a nonprofit that advocates for nuclear disarmament.

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<v Speaker 2>He's been watching the latest out of Iran closely, and

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<v Speaker 2>he argues it's time for a new agreement.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there are many many ways to go about this,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's time to go about it.

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<v Speaker 2>But with a shaky ceasefire in place, Just what would

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<v Speaker 2>it take to get back to negotiations and what's at

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<v Speaker 2>stake if that doesn't happen. I'm David Gerret and this

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<v Speaker 2>is the Big Take from Bloomberg News Today. On the show,

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<v Speaker 2>I speak with former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moneese and

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<v Speaker 2>with Bloomberg's Nick Wadhams about President Trump's approach to Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>the state of the country's nuclear program, and what previous

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations can tell us about the moment we're in now.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Nick Watams has been tracking the fast moving developments

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<v Speaker 2>between the US, Israel, and Iran, and he and I

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<v Speaker 2>smoke on Tuesday morning. I want to ask you first

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<v Speaker 2>about the ceasefire President Trump announced last night on Truth

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<v Speaker 2>Social help us make sense of it? What is President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump trying to accomplish here?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the President chiefly is trying to get himself

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<v Speaker 1>a foreign policy win and to make it look like

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<v Speaker 1>he has a greater deal of influence than he actually has.

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<v Speaker 1>But you have this fascinating situation where the President is

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<v Speaker 1>essentially conducting foreign policy by tweet and announced this ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>that seemed to catch even some members of his own

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<v Speaker 1>administration off guard. He basically, via JD. Vance and Steve Witcoff,

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<v Speaker 1>back channeled with Israel and then got the Kataris to

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<v Speaker 1>pull Iran on board. And I think the bigger signal

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<v Speaker 1>there is that, in a lot of ways, everybody kind

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<v Speaker 1>of wants this thing to end. So he found a

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<v Speaker 1>fortuitous moment to essentially claim victory.

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<v Speaker 2>We heard his frustration on Tuesday morning as he talked

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<v Speaker 2>to reporters before he left Washington for for a NATO summit.

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<v Speaker 4>We basically have two countries that have been fighting so

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<v Speaker 4>long and so hard that they don't know what they're doing.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you understand how fragile is this sees fire?

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<v Speaker 3>Nick?

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, this is a very very fragile ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 1>The President essentially said, you know, there's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>peace in the region, but I have a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>questions about that. What if investigators or US intelligence find

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<v Speaker 1>there's another site, as Iran has intimated, where it's continuing enrichment,

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<v Speaker 1>or what if the US finds those nine hundred pounds

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<v Speaker 1>of enriched uranium which they've lost track of, and they decide, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>another bunker buster bomb is needed to take out that uranium.

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<v Speaker 1>So there are all sorts of those elements. But then

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<v Speaker 1>there's the Israel component. What if Israel finds a target

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<v Speaker 1>of opportunity or a moment of opportunity where it can

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<v Speaker 1>take out another Iranian science who's involved with the nuclear program,

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<v Speaker 1>or another military general. I mean, it just feels like

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<v Speaker 1>there are so many ways in which this thing could unwind,

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<v Speaker 1>and it feels like we're very far from a situation

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<v Speaker 1>where we'd be able to enter into diplomacy to come

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<v Speaker 1>to some sort of longer term resolution.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to dig into one part of that, and

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<v Speaker 2>it is sort of what it's going to take to

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<v Speaker 2>figure out how successful those strikes were. How difficult is

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<v Speaker 2>it going to be to assess how much material was

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<v Speaker 2>at those sites, how much might have been moved.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, there are a couple of things. One is, in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of eliminating the material that Iran needs to make

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<v Speaker 1>a bomb, there is no assessment that currently exists to

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<v Speaker 1>suggest that that material has been taken off the table,

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<v Speaker 1>so the US has basically lost track of where that

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<v Speaker 1>enriched uranium is. The question is can Iran produce more?

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<v Speaker 1>And then could it produce a bomb, a weapon that

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<v Speaker 1>could deliver a nuclear warhead? And Iran is still seen

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<v Speaker 1>as being some ways away from that. So you have

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<v Speaker 1>assessments now saying that Iran has essentially been pushed back.

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<v Speaker 1>But the challenge when you look at enrichment, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is that Fordoh is a facility that's buried underneath a mountain.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why they needed those bunker buster bombs. At the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>we're still waiting for a lot of that information to

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<v Speaker 1>come in.

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<v Speaker 2>On Tuesday, the New York Times reported the US strikes

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<v Speaker 2>didn't collapse Iran's underground nuclear facilities and quote set back

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's nuclear program by only a few months. Former Energy

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary Ernest Mones spent a lot of time when he

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<v Speaker 2>was negotiating the Iran deal on verification how the international

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<v Speaker 2>community could assess what Iran was doing and what it wasn't.

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<v Speaker 2>I asked him how far away he thinks Iran is

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<v Speaker 2>from developing a nuclear weapon.

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<v Speaker 3>When you hear these different timeframes often what you're hearing

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<v Speaker 3>is apples and oranges being compared. For example, when one

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<v Speaker 3>talks about weeks pre attack, that was correct in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of the time would take from where they were starting

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<v Speaker 3>with highly enriched uranium to reach weapons grade. For a

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<v Speaker 3>substantial number of weapons, that would have been weeks. That's

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<v Speaker 3>not the same as you often hear as building a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear weapon, So then you hear some say, well, it's

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<v Speaker 3>three years away. I think that's a little bit on

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<v Speaker 3>the high side in the sense that there are many

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<v Speaker 3>intermediate places you can go in building much cruder weapons,

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<v Speaker 3>which are nevertheless would make for a very very bad

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<v Speaker 3>day if one were to explode.

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<v Speaker 2>I saw that Anthony Blincoln, who was President Biden's Secretary

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<v Speaker 2>of State and someone with whom you worked in the

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<v Speaker 2>Obama administration, had a piece in The Times on Tuesday,

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<v Speaker 2>and he called the strikes on Iran by the US

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<v Speaker 2>and Israel unwise and unnecessary. But he added that now

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<v Speaker 2>that it's done, I very much hope it succeeded. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you feel similarly about what's transpired here over the last

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<v Speaker 2>few days.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, first of all, I think there's no question that

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<v Speaker 3>militarily it was a success. Whether success means FODOH was

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<v Speaker 3>badly damaged or obliterated, I think remains to be seen,

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<v Speaker 3>but clearly lots of damage to that facility and also

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<v Speaker 3>to the Matan's enrichment facility. However, I would distinguish damage

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<v Speaker 3>of facilities with curtailment of a possible nuclear weapons.

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<v Speaker 2>Program, looking at how much damage has been done, how

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<v Speaker 2>much time and effort is that going to take.

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<v Speaker 3>It's likely that we'll never really quite know the exact

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<v Speaker 3>level of damage, but I don't think it matters that

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<v Speaker 3>much to me. It's going to be much more now

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<v Speaker 3>what they elect to do or not do in covert sites.

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<v Speaker 3>Before the US bombing, Iran made the statement that they

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<v Speaker 3>had a third undisclosed location. I'd have no idea if

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<v Speaker 3>that's true or not, but I wouldn't rule it out.

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<v Speaker 3>And when you combine that with the enriched geranium that

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<v Speaker 3>was probably moved and hidden, and you combine that with

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<v Speaker 3>their extensive work on other elements of a nuclear weapon

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<v Speaker 3>up until two thousand and three, I don't think we

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<v Speaker 3>should doubt that they had the capability of building a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear weapons, certainly a crude one, in a reasonably prompt time.

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<v Speaker 2>How difficult is it to move nuclear materials around. So

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<v Speaker 2>if an advance of these attacks, Aroon wanted to move

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<v Speaker 2>some of that uranium, how hard an undertaking is that?

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<v Speaker 3>That would be simple. It's just cylinders filled with a

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<v Speaker 3>gaseous form uranium hexafluoride to be precise, in basically metal tanks,

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<v Speaker 3>and you can just load them onto a truck and

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<v Speaker 3>move them. We may not ever know how much of

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<v Speaker 3>that highly enriched uranium escaped the bombing. If I were

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<v Speaker 3>a military planner, I would be assuming all of it

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<v Speaker 3>was moved.

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<v Speaker 2>After the break? What could bring Iran back to the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiating table after a blistering few weeks of fighting in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East? On Tuesday, after President Trump announced a

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<v Speaker 2>ceasefire between Israel and Iran, I sat down separately with

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<v Speaker 2>former Energy Secretary Ernest Monees and with Nick Wadhams, who

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<v Speaker 2>oversees Bloomberg's coverage of national security. We've heard from the President,

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<v Speaker 2>we have read his post on social media. What don't

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<v Speaker 2>we know about what he wants to happen next? Is

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<v Speaker 2>it direct talks? It seems like it is a return

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<v Speaker 2>to diplomacy in some form.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, that is the great question that we have

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<v Speaker 1>all been trying to answer because it has felt for

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<v Speaker 1>a long time like the President is not actually interested

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<v Speaker 1>in the sort of diplomacy that would lead to an

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<v Speaker 1>ironclad agreement. I mean, people think of the Joint Comprehensive

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<v Speaker 1>Plan of Action, the previous nuclear deal that was done

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<v Speaker 1>under the Obama administration that took more than two years.

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<v Speaker 1>The President this time essentially said a month to go, Hey, Roan,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got sixty days. Come to a deal in sixty days.

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<v Speaker 1>And they had these periodic conversations between Steve Whitcoff, his envoy,

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<v Speaker 1>and Iranian officials, but there's never been a sense that

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<v Speaker 1>they were actually sitting in a room and hammering out

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<v Speaker 1>the concrete and difficult details that would produce a lasting agreement.

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<v Speaker 2>Ernest Monies was one of the lead negotiators the JCPOA,

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<v Speaker 2>working in parallel with President Obama's Secretary of State John Carey.

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<v Speaker 3>My job was to make sure that the way President

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<v Speaker 3>Obama expressed it was that if they were to go

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<v Speaker 3>all out with what they had to produce the material

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<v Speaker 3>for one nuclear weapon, it would credibly take a year

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<v Speaker 3>or longer. So that was one requirement. The second requirement

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<v Speaker 3>was to come back with very stringent verification and transparency approaches,

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<v Speaker 3>and we did. We came back with unparalleled verification measures.

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<v Speaker 2>But the deal Monies and his colleagues worked on didn't

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<v Speaker 2>survive Trump's first term. He withdrew the US from the

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<v Speaker 2>agreement in twenty eighteen.

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<v Speaker 4>As I have said many times, the Iran deal was

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<v Speaker 4>one of the worst and most one sided transactions the

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<v Speaker 4>United States has ever entered into.

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<v Speaker 2>Nick has he said anything in the intervening years intervening

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<v Speaker 2>period to give us an indication of what he wants

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<v Speaker 2>in an agreement with Iran That wasn't there in that

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<v Speaker 2>first one.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So, the whole premise of the JCPOA was you

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<v Speaker 1>put these limits on Iranian enrichment. You don't completely remove

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<v Speaker 1>their ability to enrich uranium. You just put it so

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<v Speaker 1>that they can't enrich to weapons grade. And then you

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<v Speaker 1>essentially put in a time limit, you say about fifteen years,

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<v Speaker 1>and then after that they would reassess. And the deal

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<v Speaker 1>was very explicit in not putting limits on Iran's ballistic

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<v Speaker 1>missile program, on its funding for proxy groups in the region,

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<v Speaker 1>on all the concerns that US and European officials had.

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<v Speaker 1>But the idea was Okay, let's sort of fold Iran

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<v Speaker 1>back into the international community. Let's build goodwill, let's get

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<v Speaker 1>its economy humming, give it an incentive to essentially stay

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<v Speaker 1>on the path, on the straight and narrow, and then

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<v Speaker 1>in fifteen years we'll all come back and reassess and

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<v Speaker 1>put new limits on and there will be this unified

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<v Speaker 1>front with Russia and China and all the other signatories

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<v Speaker 1>to the deal. So the President in twenty eighteen basically

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<v Speaker 1>looked the deal and said, well, this only puts very

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<v Speaker 1>time constrained limits on Iranian ye Richmond, but doesn't require

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<v Speaker 1>anything else, any other limits that are the reason why

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<v Speaker 1>Iran is also such a threat to the region. So

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<v Speaker 1>he blew it up. And then subsequently the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 1>had an envoy, Brian Hook who went in and tried

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<v Speaker 1>to come to a new deal to impose more strict sunsets,

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<v Speaker 1>to put more limits on the Iranian program, and he

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<v Speaker 1>was unable to do that, in part because Trump wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>sign off on it.

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<v Speaker 2>The US was talking with Iran again during President Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>second term, but Iran called off those talks after the

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli strikes. Nick, where do you see things going from here?

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<v Speaker 2>I go back to the last time Iran in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States were negotiating a deal, and it seemed like

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<v Speaker 2>Iran had more optionality. And I look at the state

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<v Speaker 2>of Iran, its economy under sanctions, the fact that it's

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<v Speaker 2>been hit by these strikes from Israel and the US,

0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:23.760
<v Speaker 2>its proxies in the Middle East have been diminished.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's like a fascinating puzzle piece, because you're right,

0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 1>Iran has been severely weakened. It seems that it does

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<v Speaker 1>not have the hand that it had back then to

0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 1>play anymore. And that's what President Trump is essentially counting.

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:42.160
<v Speaker 1>On the flip side, is that what you had in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty fifteen when those conversations were going on was at

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 1>least some element of trust that if you came to

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:52.240
<v Speaker 1>this deal, the two sides would adhere to it. And

0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 1>then once President Trump came in and blew up that deal,

0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.160
<v Speaker 1>you essentially gave the hardliners in Iran all the evidence

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 1>they needed to say, Hey, the Americans can never be trusted.

0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>Why would we ever get into a deal with them?

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<v Speaker 3>And that was what.

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Actually hung up the negotiations from the Biden administration with Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>So you have this situation where On the one hand,

0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:18.200
<v Speaker 1>Iran is severely weakened and does have an incentive to

0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:20.600
<v Speaker 1>get into a deal. But also the hardliners in Iran

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 1>who oppose that idea have all the evidence they need

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 1>to show that the US can't be trusted. And then

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<v Speaker 1>you also have plenty of examples for Iran countries like Russia,

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 1>North Korea, even Cuba where they've been under massive economic

0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 1>sanction for many, many years, and in some ways the

0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:42.200
<v Speaker 1>regime is only more powerful than it ever was. So

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 1>there is an incentive structure for the leadership in Iran

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:48.040
<v Speaker 1>to say, let's just hang on and keep up this

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 1>opposition with the West.

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<v Speaker 2>I asked ernest Monies, what would or could incentivize Iran

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.440
<v Speaker 2>to pursue a diplomatic solution Again.

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 3>To come back to the table, I think we have

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 3>to look at what are the strategic needs of all

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 3>the players in this What does everybody need out of

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 3>a negotiation. Well, what Iran says they need is the

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:16.560
<v Speaker 3>ability to use nuclear technology peacefully. They want nuclear electricity, fine,

0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:22.240
<v Speaker 3>they like medical isotopes, cure cancer and the like. Fine,

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 3>we have no problem with those peaceful uses. What the

0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 3>West will need and Israel will need is considerable confidence

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.960
<v Speaker 3>that Iran is not engaging, especially in a covert program

0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 3>to build a nuclear weapon. I for one, think that

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 3>an interesting approach to a new negotiation, and I have

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:50.160
<v Speaker 3>reason to believe Iran would be interested in pursuing a

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 3>regional development of nuclear energy and its supply chain that

0:15:55.280 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 3>would include enrichment and fuel fabrication, potentially in various countries

0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 3>in the region, but not under any one country's control.

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:07.040
<v Speaker 3>So again, providing some assurance that there will not be

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:11.560
<v Speaker 3>a diversion of materials or technology to a weapons program.

0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.840
<v Speaker 2>Lastly, I want to ask you about the key ingredient

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 2>to any successful negotiation, and that, of course is trust.

0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.720
<v Speaker 2>Is it possible, after all that's happened, for these two

0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 2>countries to get together in a room and for the

0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.680
<v Speaker 2>US and Iran to trust one another enough to engage

0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:29.440
<v Speaker 2>in vilent negotiations.

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, in twenty fifteen, when we were negotiating

0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 3>the original Iran deal, my phrase was always don't trust

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.360
<v Speaker 3>and verify, and I think that's going to be the

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 3>approach here on all sides. So again I go back

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 3>to those strategic objectives Iran being able to use nuclear

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 3>technology peacefully, the West and Israel and other countries being

0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 3>confident that if they were to try a covert program,

0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.520
<v Speaker 3>at least the bar would be set very very high

0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:04.600
<v Speaker 3>for detection, and that Iran and other countries in the

0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 3>region feel that they have security of supply to pursue

0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.040
<v Speaker 3>peaceful uses. So I think those are the three objectives.

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.760
<v Speaker 3>They will not be based upon trust, They will have

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:20.440
<v Speaker 3>to be based upon verification and on processes in which

0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:23.919
<v Speaker 3>Iran also feels confident that they will have access to

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:24.600
<v Speaker 3>what they need.

0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.720
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.

0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.560
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0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:44.639
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0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:49.520
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.