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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us prow read enough? There were running a game

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Speaker 2: so smooth, so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 2: Of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left too.

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Speaker 1: The wide eyed drill bibews, how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

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Speaker 3: betting podcast from the Action Network. I'm Anthony Dubundo, joined

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Speaker 3: by Baja Cunningham. Michael Leaboff is on a one two

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Speaker 3: three cancoon trip this week. He'll be back next week

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Speaker 3: to join us for a full Premier League slate. We've

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Speaker 3: got a shortened slate this weekend, only five matches the

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Speaker 3: second half of match week twenty in the prem and

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Speaker 3: there are some interesting matches we need to get into,

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Speaker 3: including the Arsenal title hopes dwindling as we speak. But

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Speaker 3: before we get into that, remember that Wonder Goal is

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Speaker 3: presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three six five

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Speaker 3: doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every sport should be epic.

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Speaker 3: Every tournament, every game, every point, every play, from the

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Speaker 3: moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under

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Speaker 3: the radar.

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Speaker 4: See for yourself.

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Speaker 3: the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five.

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Speaker 3: Must be twenty one or older and president in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia. If you or someone you know

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Speaker 3: has a gambling problem and wants help, call one one

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Speaker 3: hundred gambler in Colorade, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.

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Speaker 3: Or when one hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and

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Speaker 3: conditions apply, bj.

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Speaker 1: Bjbj Anthony, Anthony, Anthony.

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Speaker 3: Since we last spoke about the Gunners, Yeah, they have

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Speaker 3: suffered a couple of setbacks. You know, they lost to

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Speaker 3: west Ham, They lost to Fulham two matches where you know,

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Speaker 3: we thought they wouldn't have a ton of issues, and

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Speaker 3: you know the arsenal style, This control based approach kind

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Speaker 3: of withered a bit and now the current title odds

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Speaker 3: courtesy of bet three six five Manchester City minus one

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Speaker 3: seventy five, Liverpool plus two fifty Arsenal plus seven fifty.

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Speaker 3: I want to do before, you know, before we get

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Speaker 3: into Arsenal Palace, that's the kickoff match seven thirty am

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Speaker 3: Eastern on Saturday, I want to kind of assess your

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Speaker 3: current state.

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Speaker 4: Is it over? Are we out of it?

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Speaker 3: Of course not, have you given up because I've spoken

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Speaker 3: to some national fans who have kind of no wavered

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Speaker 3: on their belief in this team.

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Speaker 2: I mean, here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: If we go back to this bad run that they've

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Speaker 1: had where they drew Liverpool, lost to west Ham, just

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Speaker 1: got caught on the wrong side of variants there. I

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Speaker 1: would agree with bad performance at Fulham going ahead and

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Speaker 1: not really playing well with the lead there, and then

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Speaker 1: in the FA Cup they just got caught on the

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Speaker 1: wrong side of variance against Liverpool where they were largely

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Speaker 1: the better team pretty much the entire match. So that

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Speaker 1: really hasn't waivered my feelings about Arsenal and their title hopes.

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Speaker 1: It's more of a fact that you know, we say

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Speaker 1: this like every single year. It's just like it seems

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Speaker 1: in what City is not like completely dominatingly, It's like

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Speaker 1: it seems like they're about to go on a run,

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Speaker 1: but they really are because of the return of Kevin

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Speaker 1: de Bruyna, which he saw against Newcastle, is a pretty

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Speaker 1: big addition in the middle of the season here. He's

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Speaker 1: probably the most important player and they're getting him at

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Speaker 1: the right time. So I know OPTA has City at

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Speaker 1: sixty three percent to win the title, So bounce one

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Speaker 1: five is it's pretty fair given the current odds and

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Speaker 1: Arsenals around three percent. So from a data perspective, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it does look over, but we'll see as we go forward.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't look like Arsenal's going to buy a striker

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Speaker 1: in January, and I'm I'm glad they didn't because they

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Speaker 1: don't need to waste the money at this point. It's very,

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Speaker 1: very difficult at this point to see a path. But

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Speaker 1: this team can control matches. They're still an elite defensive team.

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Speaker 1: They just need to figure out this offensive attack and

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Speaker 1: try to get teams through the middle of the pitch,

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Speaker 1: which we'll talk about here in a second. Against Palace

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Speaker 1: Oda Garden, adverts need to go to a different level

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Speaker 1: if Arsenal is going to win the title, that is

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Speaker 1: what it's going to come down to. Sock and Martinelli

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Speaker 1: areing to continue to get double dot wide, Arsenals continue

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Speaker 1: to be a very good defensive team. They're going to

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Speaker 1: continue to control matches, but it's going to be their

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Speaker 1: ability to create chances to the middle of the pitch

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Speaker 1: and that is going to be the ultimate difference maker

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Speaker 1: of Arsenal's going to challenge Liverpool and City for the title.

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Speaker 1: But as it stands, it seems like City is going

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Speaker 1: to go on a run.

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Speaker 2: Here. We'll see if that.

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Speaker 1: Happens, but right now, from the current odds, I don't

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Speaker 1: think anything is really playable.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's more interesting. You know, we're gonna

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Speaker 3: get into the Champions League, what's coming back in like

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Speaker 3: two weeks, So we're gonna we're gonna have a lot

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Speaker 3: on that in about three weeks from now, and we'll

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Speaker 3: discuss kind of the round of sixteen matchups and maybe

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Speaker 3: we'll do uh, we'll each pick a future again to

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Speaker 3: ride for the age of the of the three competitions

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Speaker 3: in Europe. But I kind of think Arsenal right right now,

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Speaker 3: given the situation of some of the other top tier

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Speaker 3: contenders across Europe. You know, we've seen some holes with PSG,

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Speaker 3: We've seen some question marks about Real and BARSA. I

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Speaker 3: think both are not on the level of the Arsenal

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Speaker 3: and even Liverpool. I think, you know what's a better

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Speaker 3: bet right now? Right if you want to bet Arsenal

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Speaker 3: and you think that, and generally I agree, Like I

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Speaker 3: don't haven't really materially downgraded Arsenal in the last two

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Speaker 3: matches three matches, just because I wasn't as high on

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Speaker 3: them prior, and I kind of think that those matches

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Speaker 3: were just what they were, just kind of natural things

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Speaker 3: that are going to happen in their style of play.

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Speaker 3: But I think they're you know what's a better bet

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Speaker 3: right now, Arsenal at plus six to fifty to win

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Speaker 3: the Champions League or Arsenal at plus seven fifty seven

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Speaker 3: hundred to win the league. For me, given that City

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Speaker 3: and Liverpool are both in my mind better teams and

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Speaker 3: have now had point leads, I kind of think that

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Speaker 3: the better bet almost is to lean into this defense

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Speaker 3: and then winning a knockout tournament. So we'll get more

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Speaker 3: into that in a couple of weeks haven't actually fired

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Speaker 3: anything yet, but for me, I think Arsenal is a

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Speaker 3: better bet in the one off kind of tournament. Hope

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Speaker 3: they get a good draw. You know, they should get

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Speaker 3: through Porto and then you know, maybe you know, you

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Speaker 3: don't know what the draw is going to be, but

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Speaker 3: could get a good draw on the quarters. Whereas in

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Speaker 3: the league, I just don't think there's enough goals in

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Speaker 3: this team. And that's why I also, you know, Arsenal

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Speaker 3: plays Palace. I'm betting under two and a half at

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Speaker 3: plus one ten. I have this projected right at.

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Speaker 4: Two and a half.

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Speaker 3: You look at you know, the difference in Arsenal this year,

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Speaker 3: and we've talked about this ad nauseum on this show,

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Speaker 3: but kind of like the in the minutia, like what

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Speaker 3: has changed, and it's been that they just aren't a

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Speaker 3: very good crossing team anymore. They were really good last

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Speaker 3: year and crosses in the penalty area and getting those

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Speaker 3: cutback runs because they were able to get ode guard,

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Speaker 3: you know, those late runs. The ball progression. Jhacko we

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Speaker 3: saw the first half of the season especially, he did

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Speaker 3: really well in that new role kind of getting forward,

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Speaker 3: and this year so much more of their attack has

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Speaker 3: been shunted through Socca and it's kind of left them

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Speaker 3: just relying on soccer, pinging crosses or beating a man,

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Speaker 3: and that's been the whole team. And like you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: you know, they they've doubled him a lot, and he's

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Speaker 3: you know, had a good years. He's been as good

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Speaker 3: as he was last year. But everybody else around him,

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Speaker 3: from Martinelli to Oda Guard to Haverds in that role,

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Speaker 3: to Jay Zus, all of them have not replicated what

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Speaker 3: they did last season and as a result, you're just

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Speaker 3: seeing an Arsenal team, especially from open play, which has

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Speaker 3: just not been very good. They've been below average as

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Speaker 3: an attack in x G from open play. So now

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Speaker 3: they play a Palace team notoriously, who is going to

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Speaker 3: be shorthanded. No, Michael Alise. Now he's hurt. We had

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Speaker 3: like three games where we were like, oh, it's hard

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Speaker 3: to buy Palace and then at least they got hurt

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Speaker 3: and now I use it afcon and he's you know,

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Speaker 3: been a pretty productive winger for them. And they're they're starting,

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Speaker 3: you know, they have a couple options here right They

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Speaker 3: started Matteas Franca Franza in the in the FA Cup

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Speaker 3: against Everton, Jeff Schlupp, I expect to start. He's not

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Speaker 3: giving you much in terms of creativity and forward production.

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Speaker 3: They started Will Hughes today in the Cup alongside and

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Speaker 3: then they played a two man midfield with Richards and Lerma.

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Speaker 3: I kind of think they're going to run that back

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Speaker 3: with Richards and Larman the field. Pretty good ballplayers, decent defenders,

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Speaker 3: but again, like you're not getting any ball progression of

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Speaker 3: forward passing from that midfield if it's Will Hughes, Jefferson, Larama,

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Speaker 3: Chris Richards, and then it's just all on ESA, and

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Speaker 3: you know, I the first meeting between these two teams

186
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Speaker 3: was ESA and Edward and Pallas had point three x

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Speaker 3: G in an hour and ten minutes prior to the

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Speaker 3: red card at home against Arsenal, and they created point

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Speaker 3: seven of their of their expected goals all after the

190
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Speaker 3: red card to Tomyasu, which was kind of a dodgy

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Speaker 3: read to begin with. So I kind of like the

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Speaker 3: under here. I think the total is a little inflated.

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Speaker 3: Maybe Arsenal, you know, finds a bunch of goals and

194
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Speaker 3: pounds them, but given how they played this year, I

195
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Speaker 3: think understood way to go A plus.

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Speaker 1: Money yeah, I agree. The thing with Palace, and I

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Speaker 1: think we've been seeing kind of lately is that, you know,

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Speaker 1: typically Roy Hodgson's you know, a low block, counter attacking

199
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Speaker 1: type of manager, but since Elise has come back into

200
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Speaker 1: the team, he's been a lot more willing to play

201
00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,280
Speaker 1: out of the back, try and play a lot of

202
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Speaker 1: short passes to get the ball moving forward, to get

203
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Speaker 1: the ball into Alis and A's feet, because that's where

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Speaker 1: they're at their best. They're elite ball carriers. They can

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Speaker 1: really rip a part of defense with their dribbling, and

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Speaker 1: they're not you know, it's not optimal for Crystal Palace

207
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,520
Speaker 1: to just send long balls up to them and have

208
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Speaker 1: them act like you know, a Chris Wood or Nashley

209
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Speaker 1: Barnes type of striker. Like no, you need to get

210
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Speaker 1: the ball at their feet and going forward. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: matches against Chelsea and Brentford, Krystal Palace has played more attacking,

212
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Speaker 1: they have played more open. But now that Elise is

213
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Speaker 1: hurt and they're facing a team like Arsenal, like you mentioned,

214
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Speaker 1: is struggling in terms of chance creation, I think Roy

215
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Speaker 1: Hodgson's going to go back to his patented low block

216
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 1: and just cut off central progression and just dare Arsenal

217
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Speaker 1: to beat them with soccer and Marnelli and double them up.

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Speaker 1: So I agree on the under, and you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: here's the thing with Arsenal is that even if you

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Speaker 1: look back through their last few matches against west Ham

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Speaker 1: poland Blutontown, they've created north of two expected goals in

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Speaker 1: those type of matches and they've played really, really well offensively.

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Speaker 1: But now you're facing a low block and Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 1: When they decide they want to play a low block

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Speaker 1: and they want to play very defensive, they are really

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Speaker 1: really good in it. You know, they have given up

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Speaker 1: some high XG totals, but again, like I said, they've

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Speaker 1: been playing more open because of Elisagan into the rosters.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I have this two and half as well, so it's

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Speaker 1: just the last playing more conservative under two and a

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Speaker 1: half at plus one ten, I think that's one all right.

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Speaker 3: Twelve thirty Eastern Brentford Forrest.

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Speaker 2: Guess who's back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, our boys good again and I think we have

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Speaker 3: to bet him anytime goals scorer if he starts as

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Speaker 3: a as a groupper and there's a tribute. But Ivan

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Speaker 3: Tony is expected to start, so I don't think they're

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Speaker 3: going to sell him. I actually don't think he has

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Speaker 3: that much value to like a top four team. We

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Speaker 3: were talking about this, uh with Matt Trebby, friend of

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Speaker 3: the Pop.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, way more, way more value this summer because what

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Speaker 1: you have is a striker that's coming off this long

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Speaker 1: of a suspension. Teams are not getting Branford's a want

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Speaker 1: amount of money and rightfully sell for him. Teams are

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Speaker 1: not going to pay the data amount of money for

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Speaker 1: what getting necessarily an unknown with a striker. It's not

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Speaker 1: like twenty three, like he's getting closer to thirty.

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Speaker 3: So exactly, I get just generally he has more value

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Speaker 3: to Branford and how they play than he does to

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Speaker 3: you know, Arsenal or a team like that. And Tony's strength,

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Speaker 3: his biggest strength is that you can form an attack

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Speaker 3: with a couple of players with him being one of them,

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Speaker 3: not send numbers forward and he's able to hold up

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Speaker 3: the ball effectively. He's able to take on numbers and

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Speaker 3: be an attack, a very efficient counter attack without having

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Speaker 3: a lot of players. It's just different when you ask

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Speaker 3: him to, you know, operate in a team like arsenal

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Speaker 3: where they're going to have all the possession and more

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Speaker 3: numbers in and around the penalty area. Defending against you know,

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Speaker 3: a set defense more often than not, it just changes

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Speaker 3: a lot tactically. And so I think I'm happy Tony

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Speaker 3: staying looks like he is.

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Speaker 4: They need him too.

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Speaker 3: I mean, go to Lisa's at the Afcon and Bay

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Speaker 3: moves out till March, and Yeka's at the af Con.

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Speaker 3: So this is a Branford team that is pretty short

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Speaker 3: on attacking talent. I'm guessing it's going to be Tony Ampe,

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Speaker 3: which I think is a perfectly fine attacking duo.

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Speaker 4: But we've seen the concern.

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Speaker 3: For Forrest here are that they have a ton of

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Speaker 3: guys at Afcon as well. Koyat was at Afkhan then

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Speaker 3: left the team because of a personal matter. Niakate is

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Speaker 3: at Afkhan, Sangare is at Afkhon, really bollies at av Khan.

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Speaker 3: That's like the core of this defensive unit that are

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Speaker 3: all going to be missing here. And these are two

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Speaker 3: teams that just haven't been very good defensively and have

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Speaker 3: had a really tough time with shot stopping and goal.

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Speaker 3: If you go by post shot expected goals this year.

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Speaker 3: There is some noise in the data because Forrest had

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Speaker 3: Lacadimos in there for a while and he was the

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Speaker 3: worst of anybody at ninety. Turner's been below average, but

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Speaker 3: not as bad. But Turner's problems have actually been with

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Speaker 3: his feet, and I think you know the one thing

286
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Speaker 3: with Turner. You know he would put up those incredible

287
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,920
Speaker 3: numbers in MLS shot stopping. He's one of the best

288
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,560
Speaker 3: there was, but his feet were the main reason he

289
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,760
Speaker 3: never got that early move and you're seeing that now

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00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 3: where teams are kind of taking advantage of and pressing

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Speaker 3: him into mistakes, including the United goal.

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Speaker 4: They gave up just before just after New Years.

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Speaker 3: So both of these defenses this year, Forrest conceding one

294
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Speaker 3: and a half x G per ninety since November first,

295
00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,760
Speaker 3: Brentford conceding one and a half x G per ninety.

296
00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,640
Speaker 3: Brentford's attack is still producing like they're about an even

297
00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 3: XG team. If you look at their season long numbers,

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00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,400
Speaker 3: they're like plus point three to nine per ninety that's

299
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:22,840
Speaker 3: like top six level production. They have not been that

300
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Speaker 3: for the majority of the season. A lot of that

301
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Speaker 3: was built up early in the season since you know, they're.

302
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Speaker 4: Roughly the halfway point.

303
00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,360
Speaker 3: They've been a league average team, and they're running so

304
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,320
Speaker 3: bad because fleckin and goal has been the worst shot

305
00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:38,320
Speaker 3: stopper in the prem So I think these defenses have flaws.

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00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 3: I think Tony's back forrest, you know, without Alanie. I

307
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,080
Speaker 3: don't generally like this attack, but they've found some new

308
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,360
Speaker 3: things to make it work. Morgan gives Whites healthy and

309
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,880
Speaker 3: been playing much better since you came in. So I

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Speaker 3: like the over two and a half here. I think

311
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,400
Speaker 3: the total is a little low, especially given the poor

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00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 3: quality of the shot stoppers in the goalies in this

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Speaker 3: match right now, so and a half minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 3: I actually have this closer to two seven to five,

315
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 3: and I think it should close there. I don't know

316
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Speaker 3: that it will because just because of the sheer number

317
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Speaker 3: of missing players, but I do that dealver.

318
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Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Brentford here.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a great Bilow spot the difference

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Speaker 1: that Tony makes, not only just as a goal scorer,

321
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,600
Speaker 1: but the profile that he has as a striker, because

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00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 1: basically what Brentford has had to roll with is a

323
00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:30,040
Speaker 1: Keen Lewis Potter Neil Mulpi front two which you know

324
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 1: is fine if you're a below average team in the

325
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,360
Speaker 1: Premier League. But given the way that Brentford play is

326
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 1: given the fact that they want to get the ball

327
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 1: out wide and they want to send in crosses, like

328
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 1: those two guys aren't really aerial threats at all. So

329
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Speaker 1: now you ad ivan Tony, who's like one of the

330
00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 1: best aerial threat strikers in the Premier League over the

331
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Speaker 1: last two years. It's massive for Brentford given the style

332
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,360
Speaker 1: that they want to play, and you mentioned it, you know,

333
00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,720
Speaker 1: for Nottingham Forrests, you know, they're basically losing three of

334
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 1: their four starters across their back line to AFCON right now,

335
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 1: So I think we have to bet Tony anytime goalscorer.

336
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 1: But more than anything is that, yes, Brentford has gone

337
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,200
Speaker 1: through this pretty you know, this bad run here, Like

338
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,480
Speaker 1: they still have a positive expected gold deferential through losing

339
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,320
Speaker 1: six out of seven, Like that's how bad they have run.

340
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 1: So I really like the spot here for Brentford, I

341
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,520
Speaker 1: have been predicted at minus one twenty four and especially

342
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 1: for Forrest, you know, Aina and Ariar are at AVCON.

343
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 1: You're losing two of your best fullbacks and defenders. Out

344
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,120
Speaker 1: wide against a team that primarily just wants to cross

345
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 1: the ball in So a really bad spot here for Forrest.

346
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 1: They have switched to a four two three one under

347
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:37,880
Speaker 1: now now they've tried to play out of the back

348
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 1: a little bit more. It's not a three five to

349
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,760
Speaker 1: two low block that we've seen under Steve Cooper. When

350
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 1: Brentford wants to, they can come out and press you

351
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 1: and they can cause problems. They're really really good at

352
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 1: pressing in the mid block, so they can cause a

353
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 1: lot of problems if Forrest wants to try to build out.

354
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 2: Of the back against them. So I think a good

355
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 2: Bilow spot here for Brentford.

356
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 1: One thing I'll mention as well, I love Brentford twelve

357
00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,400
Speaker 1: to one for a top half finish. Not only just

358
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 1: getting Tony back, but if you look through their injury list,

359
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 1: you know Kevin Shatte has been injured for a long time,

360
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,919
Speaker 1: who was basically supposed to be Tony's replacement. He's going

361
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,959
Speaker 1: to come back at the beginning of February. Aaron Hickey,

362
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,920
Speaker 1: who has been one of their best fullbacks, is coming

363
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,159
Speaker 1: back at the beginning of February, and Buemo is going

364
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 1: to be coming back at the beginning of March, like

365
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:25,119
Speaker 1: there is a charge that Brentford can make over the

366
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 1: second half of the season here and obviously getting everybody

367
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:29,159
Speaker 1: back to the math con as well once we get to

368
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:33,440
Speaker 1: the beginning of February. So they have City coming up

369
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,919
Speaker 1: next after this one, which is not optimal. But you know,

370
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 1: if you look at some of the teams that are

371
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 1: around them in the middle of the table, you know,

372
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,439
Speaker 1: teams like Wolves and Fulham, teams that have you negative

373
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 1: expected gold differentials, teams that I don't really see making

374
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,160
Speaker 1: a big charge. And then you have obviously a team

375
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 1: like west Ham who's sitting in the top half of

376
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,359
Speaker 1: the table and is just begging to go on a

377
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 1: bad run and then fall out of it, Like Brentford

378
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,320
Speaker 1: could very easily make a charge here and get into

379
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 1: the top half of the time table. So price of

380
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 1: twelve to one for a team that has a for

381
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,359
Speaker 1: a team that has a plus seven expect to build differential,

382
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 1: like sitting right above the relegation zone, I'm starting to

383
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,720
Speaker 1: get kind of like, I don't know if you feel

384
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,199
Speaker 1: this American a little bit of brightoned Vince from this

385
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: Brentford team brighton twenty one we'll see though, But yeah,

386
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 1: at twelve to one, I mean you're not going to

387
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 1: find a better price on that. And obviously, as you know,

388
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 1: who knows everything to get another points deduction here in

389
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 1: a little bit, and same thing with Nottingham Forest. So yeah,

390
00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 1: Brentford twelve to one for top ten, then Brentford on

391
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 1: the money line here at mis one ten.

392
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,119
Speaker 3: I wish they would have an answer for goalie. They

393
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 3: haven't even tried really, like Shakosha was.

394
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,240
Speaker 1: They tried him in the FA Cup last last match

395
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 1: against Wolves and it didn't really go well and that's

396
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 1: the problem.

397
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 3: And like the eyechest the match that he did play

398
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 3: against Man United, the eye test was really bad on

399
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 3: him too, and Latio moved off him, you know, pretty

400
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 3: early and moved on to to Provodel, so they knew something.

401
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 4: Makes you think at least, so I'm kind of just worried.

402
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,160
Speaker 3: Like the goalie situation is a big issue the way

403
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 3: they play to concede a bunch of low quality shots

404
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 3: and not give away big scoring chances, you need a

405
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 3: positive shot stopper and for years they had Raya and

406
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 3: it didn't outrun their numbers by like crazy margins. But

407
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:20,920
Speaker 3: they're running so far behind them.

408
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 4: That it's concerning for me.

409
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 1: Fucking fucking was never a like big time negative guy

410
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 1: at Freiburg, Like he was always like plus one or

411
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 1: plus two. Like he wasn't like a wasn't a blogge keeper.

412
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 1: It was just very slightly above average, which you know,

413
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 1: Fridery plays a very similar style to that of Brentford,

414
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 1: so like it made sense for Brentford to buy him.

415
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't know what's going on, but he's

416
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:40,439
Speaker 1: been terrible.

417
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Worth going to the Prem and it's killed them. Brighton

418
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 3: and Brentford have actually, you know, the two teams that

419
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,960
Speaker 3: we love to bet on the most have suffered for

420
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 3: goalkeeping after selling their keepers. So you know, I think

421
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 3: maybe something we look more into next year. I think

422
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 3: we kind of overlook goalkeepers. I mean, obviously in small samples.

423
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 3: We're talking twenty matches, you know, they're facing like two

424
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 3: hundred shots. It's a really small sample. But you know,

425
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,159
Speaker 3: maybe as we go forward we should look more and

426
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 3: do more work on goalkeepers. I'm going to talk about

427
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 3: one later or later in the pod who is putting

428
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 3: up some historic numbers, but move on to Sunday Sheffield

429
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:24,399
Speaker 3: United hosting west Ham nine am. West Ham lined as

430
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 3: a favorite here right around plus one fifteen on the

431
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 3: money line Sheffield plus two forty total sitting two and

432
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 3: a half, with some small juice toward the under minus

433
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: one thirty five.

434
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 4: BJ. I'll let you go first here.

435
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 3: This match is really tricky, yeah, because I think it's

436
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 3: really hard to price this version of west Ham.

437
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 1: I think it really is too because if you look

438
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,199
Speaker 1: at what west Ham is losing right now, you know,

439
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 1: the thing is is, like we've talked about this west

440
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 1: Ham defense at nauseum, how they try to play the

441
00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 1: slow block and they're really not effective at doing so,

442
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 1: and that kind of you know, the matches you know

443
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 1: against Arsenal was really evident where they can see it

444
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 1: to close the three expected goals, But no Poketa, probably

445
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 1: no Jared Bowen. Kudos is at Afcon who is really

446
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 1: threatening in this attack. They played Bristol City in the

447
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: FA Cup and did next to nothing. They started a

448
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 1: very very limited attack. You know, they're basically just trying

449
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 1: to rely on James Ward Prowse like sending across and

450
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,679
Speaker 1: like hopefully they could get on the end of it.

451
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 1: But they did next to nothing because Essentially what happened

452
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: was Bristol City scored inside the first five minutes and

453
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: they just sat in a lot block and they just said, like,

454
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 1: all right, be dairy to break us down west Ham

455
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: and they couldn't do it. So the same thing could

456
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 1: happen here. But I have to question is Sheffield United

457
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 1: good enough to actually do that.

458
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure.

459
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: I actually have this projected pretty close to where the

460
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: market has it, so I'm gonna pass. You know, United's

461
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: bringing in Ben Dis you know, Chilean legend from via Real,

462
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 1: so maybe that helps their attack a little bit. But yeah,

463
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: this is this is too tough for me, so maybe

464
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 1: an under, but unders are always dangerous playing with Sheffild United,

465
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 1: so I'm passing. Yeah.

466
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 3: So here's some numbers, right, So Wilder comes in. At

467
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:22,959
Speaker 3: the time that he came into the team, you know,

468
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: they were historically historically bad. They were giving up two

469
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 3: point four to five expected goals per match. That's over

470
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 3: one hundred goals allowed over the course of a of

471
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 3: a full season. And since he's come in, which is

472
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 3: about the beginning of December, they're allowing about one point

473
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 3: five XGA per ninety and it's not even like they

474
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: played a week schedule. I mean they played Liverpool and

475
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 3: they played Chelsea and they've played City and they've played

476
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 3: Villa in that time frame. So they've played you know,

477
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 3: four of the six best seven best teams in the

478
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 3: league in that time and they're conceding now, you know,

479
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 3: like I said, one point five to four xga per ninety,

480
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 3: which is the same amount as west Ham. These two

481
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: defenses since Wilder came came in have been about even

482
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 3: and west Ham, like you said, no packets of Bowen, Antonio,

483
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: ben Rama and Kudus. They have scored one goal in

484
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 3: three matches since all the injuries hit. Right, So they

485
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 3: had the big win against Arsenal to nil, which they

486
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: kind of stole. They didn't even have packets for that,

487
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: but you know they won. Then they play Brighton without

488
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 3: any of them. They don't score, They don't really even

489
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 3: look like scoring. They had one big chance ball fell

490
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 3: to so Check and he missed. They had two shots

491
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 3: from open play inside the penaltyya against a Brighton defense

492
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 3: which we have talked is not you know, particularly good

493
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 3: and you know, like a league average defense. And then

494
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 3: they play Bristol City twice they scored one goal in

495
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 3: the two matches tied the first one one one. Bowen

496
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,479
Speaker 3: scored the first goal in the fourth minute against Bristol,

497
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: then you know he picks up an injury, so they

498
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 3: essentially don't have a goal score and west it's a

499
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 3: set piece. It's really hard to see how west Ham

500
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 3: gets through here, and I think it's a cluster of

501
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: injuries that make them extremely vulnerable. Like Ariola has saved

502
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,239
Speaker 3: this defense to a large extent. But I find this

503
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 3: interesting since you know I talked about the Wilder minutes,

504
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 3: only west Ham and Sheffield had the exact same expected

505
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 3: goal difference you strip out penalties and red cards since

506
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 3: Wilder took over minus point four to two per ninety minutes,

507
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 3: so Sheffield has a arrest advantage. They're catching almost a

508
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 3: half goal at home. I'm going to bet Sheffield United

509
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 3: in this patch.

510
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't show any.

511
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 3: Value in my numbers, but I think I think I'm

512
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: I'm late to the party on Sheffield being improved under Wilder,

513
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 3: and I think I'm late to I don't think I've

514
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 3: properly accounted. I don't know how you even properly account

515
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 3: for just the sheer number of missing pl players for

516
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: west Ham's attack. We're looking at like Maxwell Corney, h

517
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 3: Danny Ings and Pablo Fornales, guys who have not featured

518
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 3: the premispode all year, and there's you know, it's like, okay,

519
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 3: maybe word Pross cooks a corner or two like so

520
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: check or and they're also missing Mavapanos is questionable and

521
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: a Garrett is missing too.

522
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 4: Uh so you know.

523
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:30,239
Speaker 3: Zuma's Lebana, Like we've seen that pairing and it's not

524
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 3: been very good this season. So I hate this be

525
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 3: but this is this is my my side of the week. Ultimately,

526
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 3: I think Sheffield's undervalued. I'm not sure where the bottom

527
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 3: is on this west Ham team because at a certain point,

528
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 3: like they got smoked at Brighton and they were outplayed

529
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 3: by Bristol. That's just what they kind of are right now.

530
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: They're they're priced barely above a relegation team, and I

531
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 3: kind of think that they're like below average to begin

532
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 3: with with everybody healthy.

533
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 4: So yeah, give me the blades at home. I know

534
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: Leeboff would bet them if you were here.

535
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.

536
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 3: I looked at west Ham team total under one and

537
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 3: a half. It's minus one fifty. That's tempting maybe maybe

538
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 3: west Ham to not score. You chase like an alt price.

539
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,360
Speaker 3: It's a good way to go about this potentially. But yeah,

540
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Sheffield on the spread here. I think

541
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 3: they're I think they're decently live at.

542
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: Home, all right, next game.

543
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 3: This is the I guess, the headliner of the weekend.

544
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 3: Not really, but it's a pretty weak slate in terms

545
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 3: of like juicy matchups. Liverpool visits Bournemouth. When these played

546
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 3: at anfield in like match week three or four, Liverpool

547
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: closed a two goal favorite. Bournemouth was twelve to one.

548
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 3: They scored in the first five minutes and they lost

549
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 3: three to one. Now this version of Liverpool is a

550
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: minus one forty five road favorite against Bournemouth, who, from

551
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 3: start to finish of the course of the season, I

552
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 3: would argue is the most improved team of the first half,

553
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: even more than Everton, because Everton was kind of good

554
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 3: just to begin the season. Born with the team I've

555
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 3: probably upgraded the most from the beginning of the year

556
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: to now, catching just three quarters of a goal at home.

557
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 3: BJ thoughts, I'm really intrigued by this match too.

558
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: It's kind of true that the market didn't give us

559
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 1: a fair didn't give us a fun line. I mean,

560
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 1: I was kind of hoping we'd get born with at

561
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 1: a full plus one, which I thought we were going

562
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: to get, and we didn't get that. So you know,

563
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: obviously Liverpool is going to be without Sala who is

564
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: at af come there, soba slide looks like is doubtful

565
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: for this match. But maybe more importantly is Watara Endo

566
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: is out of the Asian Cup with Japan, so who

567
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 1: has You could make an argument over this. This surge

568
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: that they've had has been one of their more important

569
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 1: players given his ball winning in the middle of the pitch,

570
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: and that's thing that Liverpool really lacked at the beginning.

571
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 1: What I find fascinating though Liverpool, there what makes them

572
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,719
Speaker 1: so unbelievably fascinating to me is that you know, if

573
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: you go to you know, The Analyst, which is the

574
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,719
Speaker 1: site that you all should check out if you're interested in, like,

575
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 1: you know, advanced data for the Premier League and other leagues,

576
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: they have this chart of essentially how teams play, whether

577
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: they play more direct or whether they play more slow

578
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: and more possessive. And you know, if you do the

579
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: top right of the chart, it's like teams that pass

580
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: the ball out in terms of sequences and have a

581
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: high direct speed, and no teams are really ever in

582
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: that little space because it's like it's hard to possess

583
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: the ball so much and also just like play really

584
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: really fast. But Liverpool is doing that. So the way

585
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: they're able to just play direct and play right through

586
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: teams is pretty amazing right now. Quite frankly, are they

587
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: going to be able to manipulate this Boornemuth hybrid press

588
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: which they did a very you know, if you go

589
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: back to the previous match between these two, Bournemouth got

590
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: a high turnover and that's how they scored their first goal.

591
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: And what it happened was is that Liverpool was playing

592
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 1: Trent Allenson and Arnold in the middle and they were

593
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 1: essentially Warmouth was overloading that part. They forced turnover and

594
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: got it. Well, what happened was is then they said,

595
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna move Trent out wide. And you know,

596
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: with a hybrid present, it's it's a mixture of man

597
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: marking and Zola marking. So nobody followed Trent, Allenson and

598
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: Arnold and they just kind of stayed centrally and tried.

599
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 2: To limit Liverpool from progressing the.

600
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: Ball through the middle, and they just kept getting the

601
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 1: ball out wide and creating overloads there with Sala and

602
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: Mount Trent and they just destroyed Bournemouth. So are they

603
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: able to do that again given the personnel that they have,

604
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: they could you know, in the in their last match

605
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: against Fulham they went with a front three of Jota Harvey,

606
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:55,959
Speaker 1: Elliott and Luis Diez obviously because of no Mosala, and

607
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: then they did play Grave and Burke alongside Mcowister in

608
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 1: the midfield obviously Curtis Jones as well. So there's no

609
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: ball winnings Liverpool midfield that can stop Bourne, myth. So

610
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: for me, it's a pass quite frankly, I think that

611
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 1: the number is about rights in terms where the market is.

612
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: But I do worry because you know, we've talked about

613
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: Bournemouth in this you know wonderful run that they've been on. Well,

614
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 1: they've been also beneficiarias of playing a pretty easy schedule.

615
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: You know, they've beaten Palace United, Forest Fulham and they

616
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: lost three one Atonham in a match that was you know,

617
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: pretty even, but you know they could get ripped apart

618
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: for a couple easy goals there for Spurs and they

619
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: did lose the x she battle. So this is a

620
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,479
Speaker 1: good litanus test here for Bourne. Myth of like how

621
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: good are you truly? Are you the team that can compete,

622
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: can compete with Tottenham, who's like a top six, top

623
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: seven team, or can you can you compete with Liverpool

624
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: one of the top teams. Can you be like a

625
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: team like Brentford and Brighton and actually compete with the

626
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: top sides. We'll see, but this is a good litmus

627
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: test here for Bournemouth. But ultimately I'm right around what

628
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: the market is, so I have to pass.

629
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very fascinating because you know, Bournemouth did somewhat

630
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: change how they're playing a little bit. They've been playing

631
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 3: more long balls. If you watched them against Tottenham, like

632
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 3: that was not a team like trying to play through

633
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 3: a press. That was a team like let's just play

634
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 3: over the press. And they have been effective with it.

635
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 3: And I think it's very interesting because you talked about

636
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 3: it right, like they smushed and just kind of beat

637
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 3: up on a lot of bad teams.

638
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 4: But I don't care what the schedule is.

639
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 3: If you're plus one actually difference per ninety, like that's yep,

640
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 3: and a ten match sample that's pretty remarkable for Bournemouth.

641
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 3: So you know, did the market overvalue them at a

642
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 3: certain point?

643
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 2: Maybe?

644
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 4: Is that the case here?

645
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 2: Maybe?

646
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 3: But like, like Liverpool goes to Fulham in the League Cup,

647
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: like they're lined pretty similarly, right, And like this, I

648
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 3: think the question here this has more to do with

649
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 3: like what is Liverpool right.

650
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 4: Now given their absences versus Bournemouth?

651
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 3: Right, So we saw the FA the League Cup match

652
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 3: against Fulham, they come out with that front three, and

653
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest, like, Diaz right now is just

654
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: not really the same player. Since he's come back from

655
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 3: the injuries, he's not been very good, not been very productive.

656
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 3: Jotta has been pretty good when he's on the pitch.

657
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 3: But when you play no Solo bush Lie, no Trent

658
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 3: and no Sola, that is your three of your foremost

659
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 3: creative players in terms of creating for others not on

660
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 3: the pitch.

661
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 4: Trent we all know.

662
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 3: I mean, if you ever watched Trent play, like, yes,

663
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 3: he's incredible in terms of his creativity, his connections on

664
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 3: the wing, his ability to play balls, ping balls all

665
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 3: over the pitch. He's one of the best creative players

666
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 3: the prem's ever seen. He's not gonna play and if

667
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 3: you look at the numbers, he's averaging point three to

668
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 3: one xa per ninety. He's completed forty more passes into

669
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 3: the final third that every other Liverpool player Sala and

670
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,040
Speaker 3: Alexander Arnold combined. Saala was gonna lead the league and

671
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 3: assists this year. Alexander Arnold this is the second by

672
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 3: far in passing the penalty area behind Salah. So these

673
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 3: are the two guys that make this attack go. The

674
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: third guy is Nunez and he comes on in the

675
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 3: fifty fifth minute, fifty sixth minute, and he changes the

676
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 3: game against Fulham. He gets the assist that gets the

677
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 3: first goal. I know he missed a couple of chances,

678
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 3: but he had four shots and an assist and in

679
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 3: thirty five minutes against Fulham at anfield in the League Cup.

680
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: So I think, you know, what does Clop go with

681
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: here as his front group, because I think Nunez is

682
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 3: the key. I think without the other three guys on

683
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,479
Speaker 3: the pitch, it's just like kind of a mediocre attack.

684
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 3: And defensively the combination of Vandyke and Kanate is elite.

685
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: When just one of them is out the fall off

686
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 3: to the next guy is so big, but I think

687
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 3: that's where you start to see Liverpool's flaws without endo.

688
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: So I am very tempted by the under here, but

689
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 3: I think ultimately this one's a stay away from me.

690
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 3: Excited to watch Bournemouth against like a big, big team,

691
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 3: a true top talent, to see like if this long

692
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 3: ball approach is effective in attack and I you know,

693
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: defensively this is not the best test because Liverpool is shorthanded,

694
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 3: but it will certainly tell us more than the match

695
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 3: against Fulham or will tell us. So excited for this one,

696
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 3: but I don't have a bet here as a pass

697
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 3: for me and for what it's worth, you know, the

698
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 3: last ten matches Bournemouth plus point eight nine extraw difference

699
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 3: per ninety, Liverpool plus one point one five. They've actually

700
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 3: been the top four in the last ten matches. You know,

701
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 3: we talked about the schedule caveats, but City, Arsenal, Liverpool

702
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: and Bournemouth have been the four best teams in the

703
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 3: prem in the last ten matches. So that's a fun one.

704
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 3: Excited for it. Think it'll be a good match. Brighton

705
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 3: and Wolves Monday night football to round it out, It

706
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 3: actually pains me to say that I was playing guest

707
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 3: the lines with Treby on Monday, and I had it

708
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 3: up next to my projected number, and I projected Brighton

709
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 3: it might one fifty two. They are lined at minus

710
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 3: one fifty three at BET three sixty five. As you

711
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 3: record this, I'm kind of just like in line with

712
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,760
Speaker 3: the market, and uh the total?

713
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 1: Do you what?

714
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 3: I have bright Nets one fifty three? There you go.

715
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 3: So I've got it at one fifty two. You've got

716
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 3: it at one fifty three, Bet three sixty five? Has

717
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 3: it a minus one fifty three. I don't show value

718
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 3: on any of the three way sides here. I have

719
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 3: no particularly strong opinion on either club as it currently

720
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 3: presents total sitting at three, which is right where I

721
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 3: think it should be. I thought maybe it would open high,

722
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 3: but it didn't. So for me, I mean, I have

723
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: nothing on this.

724
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:40,399
Speaker 4: What do you think?

725
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: Uh? Yeah, I don't really have anything on this either.

726
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 1: It's it's difficult right because Brighton is we talk about

727
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 1: how much depth they have in their attack, and they do,

728
00:35:52,040 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: but not having you know, a Dingra Metoma Fati even

729
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 1: and Siso who hasn't been available forever, like just not

730
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 1: having all of those even selling margs, just not having

731
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: all of those guys available, just it does have an

732
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,959
Speaker 1: effect on how Breton can you attack. Like they still

733
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 1: are very very good, but the level that they can

734
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: reach with those guys available is is pretty high up there.

735
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: So they're going to.

736
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: Place another low block here, and that's so what they've

737
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: been facing all season long, Like Gary O'Neil is going

738
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 1: to set his team up to just sit in a

739
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,479
Speaker 1: low block. Now Wold is going to be a little

740
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 1: limited as well, like they're not. They're gonna be without

741
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: Jaal Gomez, who's been one of their better midfielders all season,

742
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 1: really good ball winner. Him and Mario Lemina have been

743
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 1: really really good tandem, So not having one of those

744
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: is going to be tough. Obviously, Hawang is off to

745
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: a f con but excuse me, Asian Cups. Sorry, he's

746
00:36:56,680 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: representing South Korea, which is not in Africa. So there

747
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 1: goes your most potent goalscorer. And you know Brighton has

748
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: been better at defending in transition. So I think I

749
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: have this right around where the market has it. If anything,

750
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit on the over, but again, if

751
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: you account for Hawaii not being there and how limited

752
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: Brighton is in terms of what the level they can

753
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 1: be in their attack. I have to pass and it

754
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: sucks because I really want to done Monday night football

755
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 1: because it sounds like a lot of fun, Like this

756
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: is a really fun match to find out where these

757
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 1: two teams are. And the thing about Wolves is as

758
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: great of a job as Gary O'Neill is done. Like

759
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: they are still a like minus six respectable differential team

760
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: merely like they're not They're not this you know, a

761
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 1: team like Brentford or Everton that you know, we talk

762
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 1: about with, you know, so fondly. Like their underlying metrics

763
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 1: are still not that great. So that's why the minus one,

764
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: you know, fifty three about thirty sixty five right now.

765
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: So for me, it's a pass, but just very interesting

766
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: to see. Brighton's another team that could make the top

767
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: four charge because if you look at whether injury situation

768
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: is right now, all those attackers I just mentioned are

769
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: coming back right at the beginning of February, so they're

770
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: going to have everybody at their disposal and they could

771
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: really charge up the table and that fourth spot in

772
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: the Premier League is let's just say, I think is

773
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: wide open because I don't really trust I don't really

774
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: trust aston Villa to hold on to the position at

775
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: they're end. I think the top three spots of City, Arsenal,

776
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: Liverpool are pretty much set. It's just who's gonna get

777
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: who's gonna get to.

778
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 2: That fourth spot.

779
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 1: It's it's going to be and I know one of

780
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: these teams is going to make a charge, you know,

781
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: whether it be I don't. You know, Newcastle is completely broken,

782
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: so it's probably not going to be bound. But if

783
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 1: you know, Tottenham getting healthy, Brighton United's starting to fall off,

784
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: Like there there is a decent shot here for Brighton

785
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: to get into a top four position, which I think

786
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 1: they're nine to one I believe right now to get

787
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: into the top four. So maybe wait a week or

788
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: so on that one until they actually get everybody back

789
00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 1: and available.

790
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 2: But we'll see.

791
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: But yeah, nothing from me on this match.

792
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, they really could have used those two points against

793
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,439
Speaker 3: west Ham that they definitely have gotten one to three.

794
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 4: I don't conclude the PREM.

795
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: The PREM will be off next weekend, so we will

796
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 3: not touch on it Wednesday, but they do have a

797
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 3: midweek to conclude January mid week slate and then it

798
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 3: gets hot and heavy for the prem pretty much for

799
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:19,959
Speaker 3: the rest.

800
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 4: Of the season.

801
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 3: So the January period, it's been a weird month. You know,

802
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: we're all betting af CON sweating out Zambia. As we

803
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:30,800
Speaker 3: record this podcast, it's not going well. We're going to

804
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: talk af CON's Actually.

805
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been interesting start to the tournament. You know,

806
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 1: I think everything has kind of gone status quo except

807
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 1: for Nigeria creating seven billion spectacles and not scoring against

808
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: Ecatorial Guinea. Missed five big scoring chances against them, so

809
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 1: that was fun one to start off on Saturday. But

810
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: you know, going forward, you know, everything is kind of

811
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 1: aligning with how I kind of pictured it in the beginning,

812
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 1: which you know, good after one match week, but for

813
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 1: the first round of matches. We'll see what happens after

814
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: the second one. But if you want a couple early looks,

815
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 1: you know, if you know, me and Anthony are always

816
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 1: in the Action Network Discord Soccer channel. I've been, you know,

817
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 1: giving out anything on you know, looks that I have

818
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: early in af CON. So if you want any early

819
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: looks for that, you can, you know, be in the

820
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 1: Action Network Discord.

821
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 2: But I'll give about a couple right here.

822
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 1: For the next round of matches, Nigeria Ivory Coast is

823
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: playing Thursday at twelve Eastern time. That's a great, great

824
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: match and I love Nigeria plus a half. In that one,

825
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: they've they've switched to basically a four to four to

826
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 1: two and they've said, hey, like, we're not good enough

827
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: in the midfield defensively to play expansive like free flowing football,

828
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: so let's just play low block, counter attacking and try

829
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 1: to beat teams in transition, which really is good for

830
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: the personnel they have with the pace that they have

831
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 1: going forward, and it's allowed them to have the second

832
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 1: best expected Golden French over the last two years.

833
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 2: And okay, so I know.

834
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 1: Ivery Coast is at home, but the Aver Coast attack

835
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 1: is extremely limited right now. They are great and field

836
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: in a great defense, but if you look at the

837
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 1: front three that they played against Guinegasao, it's nowhere near

838
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 1: some of these other teams in Africa.

839
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: I love Molly again.

840
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: Against Tunisia. The Tunisian team is very It's not the

841
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: team that you saw at the World Cup like it's

842
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 1: it's it's extremely limited. They don't have any of like

843
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 1: the key players that they had at the World Cup.

844
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,240
Speaker 1: It's just a lot of guys that are playing either

845
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: in Tuonisia or not really playing in one of Europe's

846
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 1: time five leagues. So the market is pricing this Tunisian

847
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 1: team like the team I was at the World Cup

848
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 1: and they are just not mally looked great against South Africa,

849
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 1: so projected them as a pretty sizable favorite.

850
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 2: So I like them, and then I was gonna take Morocco.

851
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 1: Against the Democratic Republic of Congo because you know, the

852
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 1: DOT Congo is a very interesting team because they they

853
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 1: have all this talent, you know, Chance Allen Bemba jan

854
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 1: Wisa to name a few guys, you know, comparatively to

855
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:56,720
Speaker 1: a lot of those mid teams in Africa. Like that's

856
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 1: that's a lot of talent. But they're online metrics have

857
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: been garbage over the last two years, like they're like

858
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: a minus three expected gold differential, but they are currently

859
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 1: giving it to Zambia right now, so I have to

860
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 1: sit back and say, hey, WHOA, you know what, I

861
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 1: was wrong.

862
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna be.

863
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: Playing them, But I do like Zambia against Tanzania, who

864
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 1: got beat pretty badly by Morocco today Tanzania's best defender

865
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 1: got a red card, so they're gonna be very limited

866
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 1: in their defense. And projected Zambia around even money in

867
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 1: there and you can get them month, you know, plus

868
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:33,280
Speaker 1: one forty right now. So those are the three matches

869
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: that are like for the next round of AFKAN and

870
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: no real strong looks in the Asian Cup. We'll hopefully

871
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 1: get some better matches as we get to the round

872
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: of sixteen. But again, you know, you just have you

873
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: really want to lay with, like Japan minus two and

874
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 1: a half in South Korea. Like it's just it's it's

875
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: not that fun vetting the Asian Cup right now. But

876
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 1: Afcon's been a joy as always, and I'm looking forward

877
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: to the next round.

878
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, I might bet some Cameroon against Senegal. We'll see.

879
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 3: Personally, I was intrigued by Cameroon. We talked about Senegal

880
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 3: kind of being overvalued coming into this tournament, and like

881
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: you said, you know, we're going from twenty four to

882
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 3: start the tournament down to sixteen, so the tournament doesn't

883
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 3: really get cooking until the knockouts. But Mally's Mally is

884
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,399
Speaker 3: the team the BJ's riding with. I know, I think

885
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 3: he also met Morocco.

886
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, so in the futures I have right now are

887
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: Nigeria eleven to one, Malli twenty five to one, and

888
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: then I have a parlay of Morocco in Japan the

889
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: two favorites to whin they respect the tournament. I think

890
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: it's around eighteen to one. So those are the pre

891
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: futures that I have right now. I haven't looked at

892
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: the current market prices in terms of you know, Connoration Cup,

893
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: but I assume they're somewhere around that similar to those

894
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 1: numbers that you got pre tournament. So if you want

895
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 1: to hop in now, you can probably still get that

896
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 1: partlay at fifteen to one.

897
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's not been a seismic events.

898
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 2: Not really. I mean it's just as quo.

899
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: Although Japan you can see twice against Vietnam, so maybe

900
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 1: we got to sound sound the alarm us.

901
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 2: Who else?

902
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on. We got we got some

903
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 3: Germany and some Spain. Let's go to Germany first. Bayer

904
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 3: Leverkusen did it again. They scored in the ninety fourth minute.

905
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 1: They did it.

906
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: I was going to cash an Osburg ticket. Didn't really

907
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 3: deserve it necessarily, I mean, you know, net net one

908
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 3: no prialy a fair result, Leverkusen deserving to win, but

909
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 3: I'm coming back to fade them again. Leipsig drawn no

910
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 3: Bett minus won twenty at home. To put a perspective

911
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 3: just how much the market has changed on these two teams.

912
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 3: This is the rematch of the first match week in Germany,

913
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 3: so this is match week eighteen. Now we reset the

914
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 3: cycle Leipsig and Leverkusen played at Leverkusen, the line was

915
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 3: a pick them in week one match week one. Now

916
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 3: it's at Leipsig, a pick them. And we've talked a

917
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 3: lot about Leipsig.

918
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 4: They've been a very.

919
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 3: Fascinating team to kind of track throughout the year because

920
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 3: I was quickly downgrading them, downgrading them and saying, you know,

921
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 3: this underlying numbers really has not been particularly impressive and

922
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 3: they're outperforming their numbers by a ton, and they were

923
00:44:55,239 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: running super hot to begin the season, and the exact

924
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,439
Speaker 3: it has happened now where the last you know, five,

925
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 3: six seven matches they've gotten back to that level that

926
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 3: we expected of Rosa and Leipzig, and yet they've underperformed

927
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,439
Speaker 3: in the last you know, six seven eight matches where

928
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 3: they dropped points in four of four of their last

929
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 3: eight in the Bundesliga, despite not playing particularly worse. And

930
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 3: now I'm kind of just thinking, well, maybe I should

931
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,879
Speaker 3: have just not overreacted too much to the first part

932
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 3: of the season when they were worse. They did have

933
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 3: a lot of changes in their personnel, losing you know,

934
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 3: some key guys, so they're kind of learning to play

935
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 3: with this new team. And right now, if you just

936
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: go by season long, expect a goal differential and you

937
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 3: take out penalties, these two teams are really not all

938
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 3: that different. If you go back and you include the

939
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 3: data just from the second half of the season from

940
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 3: last year, when Leipzig and Labrakusen both kind of established

941
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:54,399
Speaker 3: themselves as the clear better team compared to Dortmund. These

942
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 3: are teams like Leverkusen has been like a tick or

943
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 3: two better factor in home field though, and I make

944
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 3: Leipzig a more solid favorite at home. So I'm going

945
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: to take Leipzig john a bet minus one twenty. This

946
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: market should be a little bit more skewed toward Leipzig.

947
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 3: I think they should be laying about a quarter here.

948
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 3: So the fact that they're only laying you know, like

949
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 3: a tenth of a goal puts me on Leipzig at

950
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 3: home in the the top spiel of the German weekend.

951
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, speeding of Dortmund.

952
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: I actually liked them on the road against Cologne this weekend,

953
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,720
Speaker 1: which is not a bet that I particularly excited about.

954
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 1: But this has more to do with Cologne than it

955
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: does that has to do with Dortmund. So first off,

956
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: you know Dortmund's I was seeing Sancho and Mattson just

957
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 1: two great additions for them and their offense. You know,

958
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 1: if they've been rolling with you know, Mailing and folk

959
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 1: rug front two, which has been you know around point

960
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 1: four actually or ninety minute, there's is fine, Like it's

961
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 1: not not horrible, but it's also not great. But this

962
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: Cologne team has completely fallen off the cliff. You know,

963
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 1: if you remember last season, this was a very underrated

964
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: team that unperformed underlying metrics. They were actually a one

965
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 1: point one four non penalty actually per ninet minute defense.

966
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 2: They were really good.

967
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: And now this season they're allowing over to non penalty

968
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 1: expected balls p ninetyments. So what what happened? Like, what

969
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: what what changed now? Well, Alis Shakiri left in the

970
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 1: summer for Frankfurt. He was just a complete engine Room

971
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 1: ball stopping midfielder, one of the best in Germany one

972
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five tackles plus interceptions that was the

973
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: third best in Germany. They also lost Jonas Hector to retirement.

974
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: He was even more important to their back line one

975
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one tackles plus interceptions that was the

976
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 1: most in the Bundesliga. So you're losing two of the

977
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:41,360
Speaker 1: top three ball stoppers from last season in Germany and

978
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: they have done nothing to replace them. So teams are

979
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 1: just playing right through them. And now they're sitting in

980
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 1: the relegation zone with a minus sixteen point six expected

981
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: goal differential. It is really really bad right now. So

982
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: I predicted Dormant and to what the minus two hundred.

983
00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,720
Speaker 1: I'm not fond of their defense. Their defense is terrible.

984
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: They can't really stop anybody through the middle of the pitch.

985
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 1: But given the way, given the attacking talent they have

986
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 1: in their offense, like, their offense is still top five

987
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: in pretty much every category that matters.

988
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: So minus won thirty five, I.

989
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:15,680
Speaker 1: Think you're getting a little bit of value on Dormant here.

990
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 1: I don't like the road form it either, but I mean,

991
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 1: this is this columb teams, if not the worst, the

992
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:24,839
Speaker 1: second worst team in the German Germany by a pretty

993
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 1: wide margin. So Dortmund minus won thirty five on the road,

994
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 1: and this will I'm sure will not go badly for me.

995
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Doorman and Mines have kind of been

996
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 3: the tail of two stories.

997
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 1: Right.

998
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,320
Speaker 3: They're both on eleven points, they both have terrible gold differentials,

999
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 3: but Mines have just kind of run bad. There's no

1000
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 3: run bad in the Colonne numbers. They are that bad.

1001
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,240
Speaker 3: And like you said, you know, they have not really

1002
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,279
Speaker 3: had like a consistent goal scorer either ever since selling Medest,

1003
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 3: they struggled for goals and they got away with it

1004
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 3: because the defense in the midfield we're pretty good. Now

1005
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 3: they're just not so y. Yeah, leaning score five goals.

1006
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 3: Kind of shocking that Schultz kept his job, but nevertheless.

1007
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 1: I don't know who kept it at this point.

1008
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 4: It's just a hat. You can't fire a guy that, yeah, looks.

1009
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 1: It also looks like a very difficult person to deliver

1010
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 1: bad news too.

1011
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:18,839
Speaker 4: Yes, for sure.

1012
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 3: So Syria, you love you love these previously overvalued now

1013
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,759
Speaker 3: you're buying low on them.

1014
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:32,919
Speaker 1: Team events, I mean, who doesn't love a leg ball, right,

1015
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 1: I mean, it's so fun to watch.

1016
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 4: He made a lot of money ball this year. I

1017
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 4: know I have actually sitting on the sidelines.

1018
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, really, what it is, It's just Juventus

1019
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: is like maybe the best defensive team in all of

1020
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: Europe right now, maybe outside of Arsenal and City zero

1021
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 1: point sixty seven non penalty XGP for ninety minutes because

1022
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 1: they're just they're eliting their low defensive block. And this

1023
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 1: is something we mentioned last season. They're allowing the second

1024
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: most final third entries in Syria, which is crazy for

1025
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 1: a team that's in second place, but they are only

1026
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 1: letting teams into their penalty area seventeen about seventeen percent

1027
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:08,759
Speaker 1: of the time once they end of the found third.

1028
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:12,239
Speaker 1: Like that is that is elite, elite type stuff in

1029
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: terms of defending your penalty box. And that's why they're

1030
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 1: only allowed eleven goals all season long. And what has

1031
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 1: made them a lot better though, especially this season, is

1032
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 1: that Vlahovic has had a offensive resurgence. You know, he's

1033
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 1: at a point six y two x cheap or ninety

1034
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 1: minute scoring rate that is second best in Syria behind

1035
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 1: only Laterio Martinez at enter and obviously having Chiasa healthy

1036
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 1: as well, because you know, obviously Juventus wants to be

1037
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: a more direct team. They're n a team that wants

1038
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: to build out of the back and play slow possession

1039
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 1: like they want to play more direct than Chiasa is

1040
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: an unbelievable direct threat to deliver balls to Plahovk. And

1041
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 1: they're facing a Leche team that honestly I loved last season,

1042
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 1: but similar to like I said with Cologne, like they've

1043
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: just completely fallen off the cliff. And what's happened is

1044
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 1: is they were this elite pressing team that was great

1045
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 1: at this sructing build a play and they're still very

1046
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: high and very good in pass per defensive action. They're

1047
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 1: second actually in Syria A. But when the press doesn't

1048
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 1: hit home, they are getting torched in transition a line

1049
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 1: close to one and a half actually for ninety minutes,

1050
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: second highest expected threat in Syria A. So for a

1051
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 1: team like Juventis that doesn't want to build out of

1052
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 1: the back, they want to play transition, they're just going

1053
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:23,240
Speaker 1: to send the ball.

1054
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 2: Over the top of the press.

1055
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 1: This is a really bad situation here for the Leche.

1056
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 1: So I projected Uventus at minus one seventy two. So

1057
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 1: best pricing can fire now is minus one thirty four,

1058
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:35,399
Speaker 1: So I think there's some value on a leg ball.

1059
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna bet Udinese again.

1060
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 2: I think I bet the too.

1061
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 3: By the way, month Uhese has twelve draws this season.

1062
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 3: They're like the ted Lasso in year two at AFC Richmond.

1063
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 3: All they can do is draw and it's kind of funny.

1064
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 3: I mean, so they've they've built up this really extreme profile.

1065
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 3: They're plus a half against Milan. They have the lowest

1066
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 3: possession rate in the league, and I actually think it's correlated, right,

1067
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 3: So you know, when they play worse teams, they're not

1068
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:08,320
Speaker 3: very good in possession and thus they struggle to get margin.

1069
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 3: And when they are playing better teams, they're very comfortable

1070
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 3: out of possession and nothing happens in their matches. Therefore

1071
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 3: they've had so many draws. This team is averaging one

1072
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,520
Speaker 3: point one five x g P ninety and you would

1073
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 3: hear that and say, man, they really stink. It's actually

1074
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 3: like eleventh in Italy because Italy has been just diabolical

1075
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 3: years used to lose money on unders in Syria and

1076
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 3: uh this year I wish I had been betting as

1077
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: many as I used to, because they have gone under

1078
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 3: over and over and over again. The average shot quality

1079
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 3: is way down in the league. All of this has

1080
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 3: just created kind of like a lowing, lower scoring environment,

1081
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 3: which is what enables a mid table team to have

1082
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 3: twelve draws in twenty matches. And Milan this year, not

1083
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: only have they had five penalties, Budones has had the

1084
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,800
Speaker 3: most penalties conceded in the prem Sore in Syria. So

1085
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: when you take out the penalty from their defensive numbers,

1086
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: they're actually one of the best defenses in the league.

1087
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,720
Speaker 3: So they've been a good defensive side from open play. Milan,

1088
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 3: like Leo's shot numbers are way down. His ball progression

1089
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,719
Speaker 3: and carrying remains very good, but they're getting fewer shots

1090
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 3: from Dreux and Leo pool of six has been running

1091
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 3: hot and scoring goals and doing a bunch for them.

1092
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 3: He's been a good addition. But they are not a

1093
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 3: consistent team. They've set they've they've had real defensive regression

1094
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 3: from what they used to be under Pioli, and I

1095
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 3: think it makes them more dangerous to get picked off

1096
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 3: here and so on the road. I like Gudenes at

1097
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 3: home back in them again. We had them against Fiorentina,

1098
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:41,399
Speaker 3: we had them against Bologna, and now I'm backing them

1099
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 3: against a Milan as well. I just love this team

1100
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 3: as a dog and I think they're they're very live.

1101
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 4: To probably end up at a draw. Shit, maybe just

1102
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 4: about the draw, but you had plus All right, We'll

1103
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 4: move on.

1104
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: To Spain uh La Liga. Best bets BJ It's a

1105
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,880
Speaker 3: battle of two of the worst teams by the table

1106
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 3: in the league. Yeah, and you're fading Cadiz.

1107
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 4: I tried betting them one time. They got they got

1108
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 4: absolutely smoked.

1109
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 3: You were right to not bet them and told me

1110
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:13,279
Speaker 3: I shouldn't bet them, and I did and I didn't

1111
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 3: listen and I was wrong. So tell me why I

1112
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,919
Speaker 3: should bet against them now and probably lose again.

1113
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: Well, it's our boys and maladays, right, who are you know,

1114
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 1: the only team in the bottom half of La Lego

1115
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: with an actual expected a positive expected goal differential because

1116
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 1: of how good they are defensively. I mean they are

1117
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 1: number one in La Liga non held the expect goles

1118
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 1: a lot.

1119
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 2: Like.

1120
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 1: Think about that, like how good that is comparatively to

1121
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 1: out of the defenses they have around them. They'll be

1122
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,759
Speaker 1: at home on inst a Friday afternoon one as well.

1123
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 1: So if you looking for some action on a Friday,

1124
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: Cadiz dead last and shots dead last and box entries,

1125
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 1: did last and final third entries dead last and progressive

1126
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:52,240
Speaker 1: passes and dribbles. It's it's a very very bad offense,

1127
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 1: and they are the biggest split team in terms of

1128
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 1: road versus home performance. They actual we have a positive

1129
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 1: expected gold differential at home, they actually are okay there,

1130
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,799
Speaker 1: but away from home they have the worst expected goal

1131
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 1: differential in Laaliga. It's around minus fourteen, while Alavese at

1132
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 1: home is before very very admirantly plus five point one.

1133
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 1: So I predicted Allaba's closer to minus one fifty. So

1134
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 1: the best price you can find out there is minus

1135
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 1: one twenty five for what is still the best defensive team,

1136
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: a team that has only allowed seven point eight expected

1137
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:31,360
Speaker 1: goals and nine home matches against a Cadiz team that

1138
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 1: in ten road matches has barely created six expected goals.

1139
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,879
Speaker 1: So above Alavese minus one twenty five.

1140
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I like Ryo minus one oh five at

1141
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 3: home against Las Palmas. I think it's the peak of

1142
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 3: the market on Last Palmas, where they're being priced basically

1143
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: an even to Ryo, which everybody don't think they are.

1144
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 3: But they're getting some historically good goalkeeper production which has

1145
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 3: carried them to this top half team. I mean, they're

1146
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:03,600
Speaker 3: dead last next T four and their bottom five in

1147
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:05,759
Speaker 3: a lot of defensive metrics, but they're making it work

1148
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:09,239
Speaker 3: because alvaov Vas has been like lights out.

1149
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 4: And it's not even just that he's a lead in

1150
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 4: shot stopping right.

1151
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 3: So he was plus four goals saved two years ago,

1152
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 3: plus four last year in the second division. They come

1153
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:20,919
Speaker 3: up now he's plus ten this season, which we've seen

1154
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 3: in half the year he saved them over ten goals.

1155
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:27,800
Speaker 3: He's also good at Claymy Fross's he sweeps well. I

1156
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 3: am shocked that he's still here, and I don't think

1157
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 3: he will be very long because I think all of

1158
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 3: the top clubs are going to come calling any of

1159
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 3: the smart ones, at least, especially Barcia Real Madrid. You know,

1160
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 3: I let he as oh block, but you know he's

1161
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 3: mid twenties, so he's not exactly a young guy. But

1162
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 3: all these top teams really should be calling, especially ones

1163
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 3: that have goalkeeper questions at the top. You know, maybe

1164
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 3: like Nawyer's getting old. I mean, shouldn't even Brentford. Yeah,

1165
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 3: so I'm expecting to move for him, but right now

1166
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 3: and he's putting up some ridiculous numbers. Only the three

1167
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 3: relegation team has been worse than last Palmas off the

1168
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,399
Speaker 3: island there minus point eight xtrely difference per ninety. Again,

1169
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 3: they just get bailed out because they're goalie as good

1170
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 3: as he is. There's a limit to how much you

1171
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 3: can really run this good and so I think we're

1172
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 3: the pick of the market on them. I like Ryo

1173
00:57:12,040 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 3: at home right around even money. They're playing jerun It

1174
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: right now, getting their butts kicked in the Cocodel ray.

1175
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 3: But I like Ryo coming back to the Capitol at home,

1176
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 3: So me Ryo.

1177
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 2: That'll do it. We're not going to do an underdog parlay.

1178
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 3: If I had to pick one, it would be Unazy

1179
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 3: at home against Milane, maybe Sheffield, but Leaboff is not here.

1180
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 4: He'll be back. We'll do the underdog parlay.

1181
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 3: We'll resume that next week. That will do it for

1182
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,200
Speaker 3: this episode of Wonder Goal. Thanks again to our sponsors

1183
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 3: BET three six y five. We'll be back on next

1184
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 3: Wednesday to preview the European Slate. There should be another

1185
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:48,960
Speaker 3: shorter episode because there's no prem and then the prem

1186
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 3: will be back again the following Sunday. So thanks to

1187
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 3: BJ for joining me. Thanks to the listeners, be sure

1188
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 3: to like, review, subscribe, tell a friend, and thank you

1189
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 3: again for listening to Wonder Goal and go Be's welcome back.

1190
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 3: Ivantone Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1191
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 3: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1192
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 3: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1193
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 3: gambler