1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kettas live weekdays at noon 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 2: We're waiting to hear from President Trump later this hour. 7 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: Is in the Oval Office. He is expected to swear 8 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: in the new Homeland Security Secretary, Mark Wayn Mullen after 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 2: his confirmation in the Senate last night. But that does 10 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 2: present an opportunity as well for President Trump to provide 11 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: any update, if there is one, on negotiations with Iran, 12 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: to potentially end the conflict and reopen the straight Offoor moves, 13 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: knowing the President has extended a deadline that was supposed 14 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 2: to expire last night to Friday, the expiration of a 15 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: five day period before he would consider targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. 16 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 2: But the President contends that he wants to make a 17 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 2: deal and that Iran wants to make a deal. As 18 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:05,479 Speaker 2: he emphasized when speaking in Memphis yesterday, I think. 19 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 3: There's a very good chance we're going to end up 20 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 3: in a deal and so we're giving it five days 21 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 3: and then we're going to see where that takes us. 22 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 3: And I would say, at the end of this period, 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 3: I think it could very well end up being a 24 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 3: very good deal for everybody, as good as if we 25 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 3: went all the way and just literally annihilated the place, 26 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 3: which which if we don't have to do that, that 27 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 3: would be a good thing. 28 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 4: That was right at this time yesterday when the President 29 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 4: was speaking in Memphis, and as Kaylee indicated, not much 30 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 4: has been learned since about the negotiating process that he 31 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 4: says is underway, and fighting continues, with Israel now suggesting 32 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 4: that it does not plan to pull back in its 33 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 4: campaign still running at full intensity. Michelle jim Risco joins 34 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 4: us from our Washington bureau with the latest Bloomberg White 35 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 4: House and National Security Editor. Michelle, I know the President 36 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 4: could add some color to this in the next hour 37 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 4: here when he addresses reporters in the Oval Office for 38 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 4: the swearing in of soon to be Secretary Mark Waynemullin. 39 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 4: But are we learning anything through Bloomberg's reporting or elsewhere 40 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 4: about the veracity or the status of these talks. 41 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 5: Well, there are a lot of questions, Joe about who 42 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 5: is involved in the talk. Still, we had those questions yesterday. 43 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 5: But as you say, there are some details trickling in, 44 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 5: at least some rumors of folks that are being spoken with. 45 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 5: Certainly Pakistan is one that has come forward and said, yes, 46 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 5: we would be eager, we would be honored in the 47 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 5: Prime Minister's words, there to host immediate mediation talks. Aron 48 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 5: still giving signals that it is not on board, at 49 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 5: least from certain parts of the government of the regime. 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 5: Right now we had the Iranian parliament speaker and the 51 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 5: deputy speaker both saying they are not and will not 52 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 5: be involved in talks. So there is a certain line 53 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 5: coming from the running regime that they are not willing 54 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 5: to negotiate at this point. But also some behind the 55 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 5: scenes perhaps posturing, as certainly claimed by Trump that his 56 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 5: diplomatic duo of Whitcoff and Kushner are trying to, you know, 57 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 5: get in roads with some Iranians, and they wouldn't identify who, 58 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 5: of course, because as they say, those people could be 59 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 5: under threat, you know, from within if they are seen 60 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 5: to be negotiating on the side with the US. But 61 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 5: so a lot of questions still, other countries trying to 62 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 5: get involved, jocking for some sway in either ending the 63 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 5: conflict or moving it forward in a different manner. So 64 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 5: we've heard about Saudi Arabia, as the New York Times 65 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 5: has reported today, maybe pushing to continue the conflict in 66 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 5: order to help remake the region, as they put it 67 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 5: in citing some US people familiar with negotiations. But we 68 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 5: just don't know yet, and so it will be good 69 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 5: to have, you know, the president way in and say 70 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 5: whether or not he's having these talks. But of course 71 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 5: we're not taking anything at face value from any side 72 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 5: at this point, which you know, everybody has their own 73 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 5: motive here to claim or to not. The talks ongoing. 74 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 2: Well, Michelle, as we are having this conversation, we're getting 75 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: some fresh reporting out from the Wall Street Journal. In fact, 76 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: this is in keeping with what Fox had reported earlier. 77 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 2: But the US is ordering three thousand and eighty second 78 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 2: Airborne soldiers to the Middle East, according to the journal, 79 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 2: also planning to deploy Brigade Combat Team to support Iran operations, 80 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 2: though the Wall Street Journal is also reported that while 81 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 2: this order to deploy the unit is expected to come 82 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 2: in the coming hours, the decision to put boots on 83 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 2: the ground in Iran has not yet been made. But 84 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 2: when we consider the deployment of more soldiers of more 85 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 2: assets to the Middle East, knowing as well that there's 86 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: two thousand marines coming from Japan that are expected to 87 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 2: arrive on Friday, right around the expiration of the president's 88 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 2: new five day deadline for Iran, Michelle, how should we 89 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 2: be reading into that? 90 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, that's another hot area, Kayley, that we're looking 91 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 5: at is what do you do with these additional troops 92 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 5: that are coming into the region. We do know, as 93 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 5: you mentioned that MEU from Japan on its way should 94 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 5: arrive at a couple days, a lot of firepower within 95 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 5: that unit of more than two thousand troops, but how 96 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 5: and whether they will be used is still up for grabs. 97 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 5: And in addition, you know, we are hearing the same 98 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 5: rumors as you mentioned about the perhaps the eighty second 99 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 5: or worn other units that may have to support if 100 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 5: there is a potential ground invasion of any kind or 101 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 5: takeover of carg Island as has been rumored. Those types 102 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 5: of operations certainly would need a lot of different units, 103 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 5: which you know, as the President probably would say, he's 104 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 5: keeping options open he's not promising anything one way or 105 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 5: the other, and he won't tell reporters first off, whether 106 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 5: or not they would do such a thing. But you know, 107 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 5: in his one thing I do want to remind everyone 108 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 5: is in his five day reprieve, if you will, of attacks, 109 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 5: he was very careful to say this is only for 110 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 5: energy sites, so we could see, you know, we can't 111 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 5: rule out any possibility of further kinetic action on the 112 00:05:55,839 --> 00:06:00,159 Speaker 5: US's part in the region not associated with energies on 113 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 5: energy sites. And even after that five day period ends, 114 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 5: you know, all options are on the table as they 115 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 5: are right now. 116 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Michelle jam Risco covering the White House 117 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 2: in National Security for US, Thank you so much. I 118 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 2: would note as well that we are seeing some escalating 119 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 2: market action, specifically in the bond market. The two year 120 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 2: yield the five year yield both up about ten basis 121 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 2: points on the day, and part of that may actually 122 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: be Joe because of the weaker than expected two year 123 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: auction that drawing three point nine three six percent compared 124 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 2: to the three point nine one eight pre sale when 125 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: issued yield that's the highest auction stop actually since May, 126 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 2: so that may be what's going on in the markets, though, 127 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 2: certainly the bond market and the oil market have been 128 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 2: having to contend with these varying headlines coming from the 129 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:48,840 Speaker 2: Middle East as to whether or not there is going 130 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 2: to be progress and stopping something that could be an 131 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 2: inflationary supply show. 132 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, there's some obviously turns south here in terms of 133 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 4: stocks reaching to their lowest levels of the day. Not 134 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 4: that it's a big sell off, Kley, we just seem 135 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 4: to get back to the bottom here. Gold turn negative, 136 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 4: gave up an early lead, the Vics back above twenty seven, 137 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 4: So we're not feeling too great today as we wait 138 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 4: for more news from a run. 139 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, this market may not be that confident in the 140 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 2: prospect of a diplomatic off ramp here. But let's see 141 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 2: if our next guest is or not. Ambassador Daniel Freed 142 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 2: is with us. He is now a Distinguished Fellow at 143 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 2: the Atlanta Council and former US Ambassador to Poland as 144 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 2: well as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, and he's 145 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 2: here with us in our Washington, d C studio. Ambassador, 146 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 2: welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. You obviously have 147 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 2: vast experience in diplomacy are you feeling optimistic about the 148 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 2: chance diplomacy prevails in this conflict. 149 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 6: In particular optimistic? No, though there is chance, I don't 150 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 6: think that US Uranian discussions are advanced. I think the 151 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 6: President was exaggerating, But there is a chance that we 152 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 6: will negotiate something with Iran. But ask yourself, what then 153 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 6: if this war becomes about opening the Strait of Hormuz, 154 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 6: We've already lost because the Strait of Hormuz is only 155 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 6: closed because we started the war. We started the war 156 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 6: for the purpose of regime change or obliterating Iran's military, 157 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 6: and we have not succeeded in doing that. So the 158 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 6: President is improvising, which is another way of saying making 159 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 6: it up. A starting a war is to enter a 160 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 6: dark cave. You never know what you're going to find. 161 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 6: We're still in that cave. 162 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 4: Well, well as we improvise our way through this conversation. 163 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 4: Then I recall yesterday the President suggesting that part of 164 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 4: a deal would include the handing over of the highly 165 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 4: enriched uranium that has gone missing according to some since 166 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 4: the strikes last summer. Would that be an aim that 167 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 4: you could coalesce around separate from the strait to your point, 168 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 4: that's something that we may have. How about getting our 169 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 4: hands on that uranium? Is that a goal for talks? 170 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,559 Speaker 6: It's a perfectly good goal. I hope we get it. 171 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 6: The trouble is suppose we don't. The Uranians may have 172 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 6: hidden that uranium. They're not going to give it up 173 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 6: because it's their leverage against a new US attack. So yeah, 174 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 6: a perfectly reasonable goal. I've no sympathy, and I don't 175 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 6: think American should have any sympathy. 176 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 7: Toward the Uranian regime. 177 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 6: It's an awful regime with blood on its hands, and 178 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,960 Speaker 6: its end would be a good thing. The question is 179 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 6: not whether our objectives might leave us better off, but 180 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 6: whether those objectives are achievable with the resources we've got, 181 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 6: and that is not clear. 182 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 2: Well when we consider what the US is willing to 183 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: do in order to achieve those objectives. Again, we have 184 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: fresh reporting from the Wall Street Journal about some three 185 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 2: thousand more troops being deployed to the Middle East, specifically 186 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: eighty second airborne soldiers. Of No decision to put troops 187 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 2: on the ground boots on the ground rather has been yet, 188 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: but you are seeing oil markets reacting to this. We're 189 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 2: back around the highs of the session. As Joe was 190 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 2: pointing out earlier, we're back at around one hundred and 191 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 2: five dollars a barrel on Brent crude, specifically, knowing that 192 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: oil is the lever that Iran is able to pull here, 193 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 2: I just wonder what your expectation is, Knowing as well 194 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 2: that countries have that have been more allied with Iran, 195 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 2: if you will, China, Russia have kind of they have 196 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 2: a stake in the oil game as well, And I 197 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 2: wonder if you think those pressures are being considered by 198 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 2: Tehran right now. 199 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,839 Speaker 6: Well, the Russians have a very interest in the price 200 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 6: of oil going up. It benefits them, it puts money 201 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,079 Speaker 6: in their pocket, and we might have thought of that 202 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 6: before we started the conflict with Iran. China probably wants 203 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 6: a stable oil supply lower prices because it's a net 204 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 6: a vast oil importer. So Russian and Chinese interests are different. 205 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 6: But the Chinese stand to benefit from this latest Iranian 206 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 6: offer to allow ships to go through the Strait if 207 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 6: they pay a two million dollar fee. So the Russians 208 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 6: and Chinese, for different reasons, are not going to help 209 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 6: out the United States. The Europeans may help us out 210 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 6: especially if President Trump accepts their help and stops insulting them. 211 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 4: How about Golf States that are now reportedly considering getting 212 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 4: involved in this conflict, How important is it for the 213 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 4: United States to keep that from happening. 214 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 6: Well, if we decide to escalate against Iran, another roll 215 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 6: of the dice, we would probably welcome all the help 216 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 6: we could get. And the Gulf States certainly don't like Iran. 217 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 6: Iran has attacked them, so they're no friends. Iran has 218 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 6: no friends in the region. 219 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 7: A widening conflict doesn't make you nervous. 220 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 6: It all makes me concerned because I don't see how 221 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 6: we where the other side is. It's not that I 222 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 6: have sympathy for the Iranian regime, as I said, I don't. 223 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 6: The question is whether our objectives can be met in 224 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 6: a reasonable way that leaves us better off, and that 225 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 6: is not clear. The war was supposed to be quick 226 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,439 Speaker 6: and easy. My sense of it is that the President 227 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 6: gambled that he would attack Iran, decapitate its leadership, there 228 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 6: would be a quick rebellion and regime change, and he 229 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 6: would claim a glorious victory, a bigger version of what 230 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 6: he achieved in Venezuela. Well, if that had happened, he 231 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 6: might have bragging rights, but it didn't happen. That's the problem. 232 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, Venezuela. Perhaps this is not to go back to 233 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 2: your point on the role europe may or may not 234 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 2: play here. How do you think that calculus changes now 235 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 2: that we know Iran may have missile capability that can 236 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 2: reach far beyond just the Golf states who have always 237 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 2: had reason to be concerned. But if they can get 238 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 2: to Diego Garcia, they can get to a number of 239 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 2: European capitals as well. 240 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 6: Right, And the Europeans, after their initial hesitation to help 241 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 6: us at all and their irritation at not being consulted, 242 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 6: are actually coalescing around a pretty reasonable position. The British 243 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 6: organized a statement by to only two governments, including some 244 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 6: in Asia. Japanese Australian signed onto it, saying that they 245 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 6: will take steps not further defined to help open the 246 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:13,479 Speaker 6: strait and this could be the beginning of a coalition. 247 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 7: I don't know that the Europeans are. 248 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,839 Speaker 6: Going to join with us in the war, but there 249 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 6: are things that they could do to help. 250 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 7: They could put pressure on Iran. 251 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 6: They are working with us, and they have let's say, 252 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,679 Speaker 6: swallowed their understandable irritation for the sake of their interests, 253 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 6: And I think that's the right call. 254 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 4: Bester Freed, you're a career diplomat as opposed to the 255 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 4: two gentlemen who have been put at the table repeatedly 256 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 4: and could be again here. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner 257 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 4: no more about real estate and investment than they do 258 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 4: about diplomacy. What does it mean for potential outcomes when 259 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 4: you continue to send the same two people, in one case, 260 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 4: someone who's not a government employee instead of experts in 261 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 4: a region with a staff that's read in. 262 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 6: Well, if the president trusts Steve whitcoffin Jared Kushner, that's 263 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 6: a good reason to have them active. But they need experts, 264 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 6: particularly on the nuclear side, and other technical experts advising 265 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 6: them so they understand what the Iranians are saying to them. 266 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 6: It's not bad for the president to have somebody he 267 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 6: trusts leading sensitive negotiations. It's bad when that person doesn't 268 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 6: have the expert advice, don't understand what he's being told. 269 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 4: Well, it's great to spend some time with you, and 270 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 4: we appreciate you're sharing your diplomatic experience that's Daniel Freed, 271 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 4: of course, the former Ambassador Wiser Family Distinguished Fellow at 272 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 4: the Atlantic Council. 273 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 7: Ambassador, we thank you so much. Stay with us on 274 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 7: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. 275 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 276 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's darn 277 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: On Apple, Cockle and Android Atto with the Bloomberg This up. 278 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 279 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg. 280 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 7: Eleven thirty. 281 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 4: Senator Mark Wayne Mullen will become Secretary. Mullen in a 282 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 4: swearing in at the White House. They cleared the They 283 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 4: cleared the nomination last evening in the Senate, not that 284 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 4: it should come as a huge surprise here fifty four 285 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 4: to forty five. The confirmation vote is said to be 286 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 4: a dear friend of the president. He said they talk 287 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 4: more as friends than they do as well co workers, 288 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 4: and this could unlock a new age in the Department 289 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 4: of Homeland Security. Some Democrats are skeptical, but there is 290 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 4: real talk of a deal today that feels different than 291 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 4: it did even twenty four hours ago. 292 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 7: With a flurry of folks. 293 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 4: Everyone noticed Katie Britt running down the driveway of the 294 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 4: White House. Then she's on the floor of the Senate 295 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 4: here trying to manage both sides on what could in 296 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 4: fact be a deal that you heard us talk about 297 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 4: weeks ago. None of this would have been necessary on 298 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 4: what is this day, thirty eight, I think of the shutdown, Remember, 299 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 4: I think it was Rosa Delora wrote the first piece 300 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 4: of legislation that would carve out ICE from the rest 301 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 4: of DHS, knowing Ice has lots of money for years 302 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 4: from the big beautiful bill. So you fund Female, you 303 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 4: fund the oh, the TSA, the guys who were about 304 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 4: to miss their second paycheck, and the Coastguard. And everyone 305 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 4: is happy, at least for a minute. But the answer 306 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 4: was no, not only from some Republicans on Capitol Hill 307 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 4: and even a couple of Democrats we spoke to, but 308 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 4: the President was not on board with that idea. John 309 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 4: Thune brought it to him. This is recently a Sunday. 310 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 4: The answer was no. He wanted to tie homeland security 311 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 4: to voter id As a matter of fact, the Save 312 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 4: America Act. He talked about it yesterday in Memphis. 313 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 3: Remember, so I'm tying homeland security into voter identification with 314 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 3: picture and proof of citizen citizenship in order to vote. 315 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 3: And those two items are the most important thing having 316 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 3: to do with homeland security. So it's part be part 317 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 3: of the Homeland Security bill, and I'm requesting that the 318 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 3: Republican Senators do that immediately. You don't have to take 319 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 3: a fast vote. Don't worry about Easter going home. In fact, 320 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 3: make this one for Jesus. Okay, make this one for Jesus. 321 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 3: That's what I tell him. That's be a damn good thing. 322 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 4: Well, no need to call Jesus. Katie Britt took care 323 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 4: of it. It turns out. I don't know what they 324 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 4: talked about in the Oval office, but the President agreed 325 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 4: following the meeting to back off that pledge. 326 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 7: It did. 327 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 4: The idea didn't even last twenty four hours on the condition. 328 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 7: That the Save Act be tied. 329 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,679 Speaker 4: What they're going to do, however, is it's going to 330 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 4: come back around in a reconciliation bill, and we're going 331 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 4: to talk about how this works with Jim Kessler here, 332 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 4: and I'm glad to say that Jim is packing some news. 333 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 4: The Executive Vice President for Policy, a third way is 334 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 4: conducted in exhaustive survey on the midterms. We're going to 335 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 4: talk strategy as well. But Jim, welcome back. It's great 336 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 4: to see you. You spent many years working with Chuck Schumer, 337 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 4: and he appears to be on the verge of a 338 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 4: breakthrough here with Republicans in his chamber and the president. 339 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 7: How do you see this ending. 340 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 8: It looks like a huge victory for Schumer. Yeah, for 341 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 8: Rosa Delaro, for mainstream Democrats. This is what they called 342 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 8: for six seven weeks ago. With some minor, minor alterations. 343 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 8: This looks like what the deal is going to be. 344 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 8: We're going to split off the parts of Homeland Security 345 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,880 Speaker 8: and Customs enforcement border enforcement from the rest of the bill. 346 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 8: Everything else is going to get funded. So big, big 347 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 8: win for the Democrats. 348 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 4: Have you seen something like that happen where they split 349 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:48,360 Speaker 4: a funding bill, splinter a funding bill to please one 350 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 4: side or the other politically here let the other. 351 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,479 Speaker 7: I mean, this is kind of an interesting maneuver. 352 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 8: I don't know if I've ever seen this before. 353 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 7: Let's say something. 354 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 8: Look, everyone says like we're an unprecedented times. Yeah, so 355 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 8: we are unprecedented times. What's happening? 356 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 4: So the government's funded presumably then for the rest of 357 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 4: the year. Right, ICE has money for several years. Right, 358 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 4: what will Mark Wayne Mullen mean at the head of 359 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 4: this agency? If anything, the dmasking was not accomplished. I 360 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,719 Speaker 4: don't know where we are with judicial warrants for instance, right, 361 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 4: all that still needs to be hammered out. 362 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 8: Right, So look, I think Democrats wanted a couple of things. 363 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 8: When is this split off the funding here? The other 364 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 8: is they wanted to get rid of Christino, who was unqualified, 365 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 8: media addicted, try to please the boss, like should not 366 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 8: have had the job. Who knows how well Senator Mullen 367 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 8: is going to be, but it is a departure. It 368 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 8: is going to be presumably a more professional running of 369 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 8: Department of Homeland Security. I do believe there is some 370 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 8: desire among the administration and Republicans to tame ICE. They 371 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 8: don't want to admit it too loudly, but this issue 372 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 8: has rebounded poorly for them in the last six months. 373 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 4: I wonder if the next couple of weeks or days 374 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,959 Speaker 4: at airports might change the way people view ICE with 375 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 4: no masks and apparently getting along fairly well with people 376 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 4: with some exceptions everybody wants to get out of here 377 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 4: in time for recess. I realize, so they're kind of 378 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 4: fast walking this potentially right now. But what about the parliamentarian. 379 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,959 Speaker 4: How do you take portions of the Save Act and 380 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 4: put that in a reconciliation bill and get that through 381 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 4: the parliamentarian? 382 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 7: Is that possible? 383 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 8: I don't think it's possible. Now, somebody, just like lawyers 384 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 8: can argue on all sides. Somebody is going to draft 385 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 8: up legislation on the Republican side and make the argument 386 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 8: to the parliamentarian that this is a principally a revenue matter, 387 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 8: not a you know, a policy matter. For those not familiar, 388 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 8: reconciliation is a special procedure in the Senate that allows 389 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 8: you to avoid a filibuster in rare occasions when it 390 00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 8: is a purely vegeinary budgetary revenue you know, revenue associated 391 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 8: associated you know, legislation. So they've got to go through 392 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 8: budget resolution first, take it through the Budget committee, instructions 393 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 8: to committees, and then put this on and then it 394 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 8: has to clear the parliamentarian. I don't see how that. 395 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,479 Speaker 4: Goess it'll end up being something under the guise of 396 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 4: funding for states to enact voter id policy or something 397 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 4: like that that'll be in a swing. 398 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 8: Even that it may not work because that sounds like 399 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 8: an appropriation, not god mandatory spending, which is really where 400 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 8: reconciliations comes in. 401 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 7: All right, keep this in. I just packed that away. 402 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 7: We're not there yet. 403 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 4: I want to talk about this important poll that you 404 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 4: conducted at Third Way that you were kind to bring 405 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 4: to us here. You guys worked with the Global Strategy Group. 406 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 4: It was an online survey fourteen hundred registered voters back 407 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 4: in February. And this is not the first swing that 408 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 4: you've made with this group, right, who say they are 409 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 4: likely to vote in a Democratic presidential primary. So it 410 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 4: brings us to the headline here the truth about Democratic 411 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 4: primary voters. And you can't find the truth without first 412 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 4: identifying who they are. And you went to great lengths 413 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 4: to tell us who democratic primary voters are. 414 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 7: What did you learn? 415 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 8: Yeah, so these are voters that say they're going to 416 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,920 Speaker 8: vote in a Democratic primary. They're taking from. 417 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 7: Voter lists as well. 418 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 8: What we learned is democratic primary voters are not nearly 419 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 8: as progressive as the media, certainly online media portrays them. 420 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 8: They are looking for a Democrat to elect a Democrat 421 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 8: who is a fighter, but more a fighter for a reform, 422 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 8: more of a fighter in the moderate lane than the 423 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 8: progressive lane. And their number one issue, frankly, is electability. 424 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 8: They want to be able to They're so concerned about Trump, 425 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 8: they're concerned about Republicans in Congress. They want someone who 426 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,479 Speaker 8: can win over someone that let's say they agree with 427 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 8: every checklist item on the fantacy list. 428 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 4: I was fascinated by this dichotomy of fights for or 429 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 4: fights against. Want a fighter you established that, but there 430 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 4: are depending on where you fall on the spectrum here 431 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:12,479 Speaker 4: of democrat. It depends where you're going to fall on 432 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,719 Speaker 4: this particular issue. For moderates, you're going to be a 433 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 4: fighter for. We always hear people come on the program, 434 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 4: but you can't just run against Trump. Well, a lot 435 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 4: of people want you. Progressives and even socialists, as you find, 436 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 4: want someone who's going to fight against a certain issue, 437 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 4: person or a thing. 438 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 7: How does that shake out? And when you're managing a campaign. 439 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 8: Right, So, when we ask people to sort of identify 440 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 8: where they are ideologically. Among Democratic primary voters, about sixteen 441 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 8: percent say I'm either a progressive or socialist. About forty 442 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 8: percent say I'm a moderate. Another thirty some percent say 443 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 8: that I'm a liberal and they fall kind of in between. 444 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 8: But so there's a two to one margin of moderates 445 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 8: over progressives and socialists. And the moderates want someone like 446 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 8: fight for an economy that is going to work for me, 447 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 8: fight for affordability, fight for schools that teach, fight for 448 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 8: government that is accountable, fight for a balanced approach at 449 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 8: the board, you know, with strong border and humane interior 450 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 8: policy on immigration. On the progressive side, a lot of 451 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 8: it is like take on Trump, take on Republicans, fighting 452 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 8: for certain things like democracy, and moderates are concerned about democracy, 453 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,199 Speaker 8: but it's far lower on the on the list. So 454 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 8: there's a there, i say, more fight for the optimistic 455 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 8: side of politics among the moderates. 456 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 4: So this is interesting that we're having this conversation you 457 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 4: and your colleagues that Third Way are known for being 458 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 4: dangerously centrist right in Washington. 459 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 7: Uh, that upsets some people. 460 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 4: And you're seeing this sort of bias and media coverage 461 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 4: and the assumptions that we make that well, progressives and 462 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 4: left leaning Democrats are going to be more likely to 463 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 4: vote in primaries just like you know, hard right voters 464 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 4: are going to that's the base they're going to. Maga 465 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 4: is going to show up at the primary. You clearly 466 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 4: feel like this is a narrative that needs to be corrected. 467 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 7: It does. 468 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 8: And look, there's a when you get to the general election, 469 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 8: both both parties have a different dynamic. For a Democrat 470 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 8: to win in a typical swing district or state, at 471 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 8: a minimum, that Democrat needs to win sixty more likely 472 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 8: sixty five percent of the self identified moderate vote. Republicans 473 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 8: only need to win forty you know, even some like 474 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 8: thirty eight percent the moderate vote to win their races. 475 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 8: So Democrats need to appeal more to the center to 476 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 8: win in the general electorate. But it also means in 477 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 8: the primary electorate. Our primary electorate is much more dominated 478 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 8: by moderates than progressives and socialists, certainly, but those moderates 479 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 8: are not online. They don't post on social media. Fifty 480 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 8: three percent of moderate Democratic primary voters never post online 481 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 8: about politics. I'm never, so they don't want to be 482 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 8: part of that crazy debate right out there about whether 483 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 8: bad Bunny is good for America. 484 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 7: I hope they're still listening. 485 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 4: And I'm really taken by the conclusion this whole poll 486 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 4: to what you say, this is what commentators and candidates 487 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 4: alike should be reminded of. Twitter is not real life. 488 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 4: Primary voters are pragmatic. They don't want their nominee to 489 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 4: go so far left. You say in a primary that 490 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 4: they cannot win against MAGA in the general. 491 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 7: Twitter is not real life. 492 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 4: Put that on your tombstone, maybe, Jim Kester, Absolutely, because 493 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 4: I have a Twitter addiction problem. 494 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 7: You do solve oh on all the time, but you 495 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,159 Speaker 7: have to tell campaigns this right. Absolutely stay off Twitter. 496 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 8: And it's very hard because you can raise money on 497 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 8: Twitter too. 498 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 7: But that's for sure. My god. 499 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,199 Speaker 4: It's great to share this with us, and when you 500 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 4: learn more, come back and see it's Jim Casler at 501 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 4: Third Way, of course, the democratic strategist you normally see 502 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 4: in our panels with us one on one with some 503 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 4: important information. 504 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 505 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 7: more coming up after this. 506 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 507 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 508 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 509 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 510 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 511 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,959 Speaker 7: Thank you for being with us already. 512 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 4: On the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power, we've got 513 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 4: a quick update on the story involving the Pentagon Press. 514 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 4: Remember yesterday we talked right around this time with Tony 515 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 4: Capassio about the court ruling that overturned the Pentagon policy, 516 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 4: that turned the screws on reporters and well, the court 517 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 4: said in an unconstitutional way that violated their First Amendment rights, 518 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 4: forced them all out of the building, and the court said, no, 519 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 4: we're not going to stand by. 520 00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 7: This was a suit brought by The New York Times. 521 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 4: Of course, we knew that the Department of Defense was 522 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 4: going to appeal, but at some point it seemed like 523 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 4: Tony Capasio is going to get back in the building, 524 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 4: have a badge, get the desk again, get the terminal 525 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 4: back in there, start reporting along the corridor. The Defense 526 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 4: Department now says it's taken a whole new approach in 527 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 4: light of this ruling, which they will appeal. They've tweaked 528 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 4: the policy and they're kicking everyone out of the building. 529 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,439 Speaker 4: The workspace that has been used for years, for decades 530 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 4: by journalists will be shut down and a new area 531 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 4: for the press will be set up, according to the 532 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 4: Washington Post, in an annex. You don't want to be 533 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 4: in an annex ever, outside the main Pentagon building, So 534 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 4: they're building an outhouse for the press on the other 535 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 4: side of the Potomac. 536 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 7: We'll see where this goes as they appeal to ruling. 537 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 4: Big stuff happening at the White House about forty five 538 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 4: minutes away. You're going to get a new Secretary of 539 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 4: Homeland Security. Senator Mark Wayne Mullen got the vote last evening, 540 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 4: did pretty well, fifty four to forty five confirmed. The 541 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 4: President will swear him in at one thirty pm Eastern time. 542 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 4: There are big questions though about what will happen to 543 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 4: the department that he is going to be running, remembering 544 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 4: it's still closed and members of the TSA, who work 545 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 4: of course for DHS, are now coming up on their 546 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 4: second missed paycheck. 547 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 7: There is news of a deal in the works, though. 548 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 4: We were just talking about it with Jim Kessler, and 549 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 4: we're going to play it to the panel because remember 550 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 4: the President decided he wanted to tie the Save America 551 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 4: Act voter ID to the Homeland Security funding bill. He 552 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 4: wanted to do a lot of things with the Save 553 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 4: Act that John Thune said they simply did not have 554 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 4: the votes for, and it's something that we spoke about 555 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 4: last evening with Senator Mike Rowns Cohurse. This is a 556 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 4: senior Republican in the Senate with his view year on 557 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 4: DHS and the prospect of that working out. 558 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 7: Here's what he told us. 559 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 9: The President continues to lobby as hard as he can 560 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 9: and to tell the American people that it's always important 561 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 9: that our elections be free and fair, and that the 562 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 9: only people that should vote in him are Americans. That 563 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 9: Senator Thune is correct when he says that we simply 564 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 9: don't have the votes in the United States Senate today, 565 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 9: We're going to do the best we can to get, 566 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 9: at least in front of the American people, clear evidence 567 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 9: that our Democratic colleagues, simply at this stage of the game, 568 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 9: are not in support of the voter IDs that most 569 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 9: of the vast majority of states already agree on right now. 570 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 7: Today, and so they have been decoupled. 571 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 4: Important as Katie Britt, the Republican from Alabama apparently leading 572 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 4: the charge here on negotiations back and forth the White 573 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 4: House the Senate, President Trump agreed in the meeting to 574 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,959 Speaker 4: back off his demand to link the bills further. 575 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,040 Speaker 7: There is an agreement. 576 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 4: You're going to laugh when I say this, if you've 577 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 4: been listening to the show at all for the last 578 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 4: couple of months. To carve out ICE funding, they're going 579 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 4: to pass everything else would restore funding for all of 580 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 4: DHS except for the arm of Immigration and Customs Enforcement 581 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 4: that carries out arrests and deportations. So we could have 582 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,239 Speaker 4: avoided once again this entire thing because that had been 583 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 4: proposed weeks and months ago. Let's assemble the panel and 584 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 4: get their take. They're probably both shaking their heads. Republicans 585 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 4: strategist Mara Gillespie is with US Bluestack Strategies founder and 586 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst Jeanie Shanzo, Democracy visiting 587 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 4: fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. I don't know 588 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 4: what to say here, guys, but this sure seemed to 589 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 4: be avoidable. And if you're a TSA agent who's been 590 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 4: driving uber at night to pay you for your rent 591 00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 4: or whatever the situation is, it's kind of outrageous. Rosa Deloro, 592 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 4: a Democrat, wrote this bill two months ago. 593 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 7: How come they didn't pass it. 594 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 10: Joe, am I to believe that Donald Trump is capitulating, 595 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,120 Speaker 10: He's tacoing now on this. I have to hear him 596 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 10: say it and admit it to believe it. But because 597 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 10: just yesterday he was so committed to the fact that 598 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 10: the Save Act had to be coupled with this DHS funding, 599 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 10: So I really am holding my breath and my reaction 600 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 10: until we hear it directly from the horse's mouth, as 601 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 10: it were. But yeah, apparently this could have all been avoided. 602 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 10: And you know, Donald Trump had said even as recently 603 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 10: as a few hours ago, that you needed to pass 604 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 10: the Save Act, that Democrats needed to save it to 605 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 10: pass it rather, and that he was going to essentially 606 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 10: own this shutdown. I'm not sure what happened since then 607 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 10: that he's decided he doesn't need to own it. Maybe 608 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 10: some pressure from Britain Thune, although I find that hard 609 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 10: to believe. So I'm in a wait see sort of 610 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 10: mood Joe on how this pans out. But yes, apparently 611 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 10: all could have been avoided. 612 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 4: Well, so the idea here, I guess I should have 613 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 4: dropped the punchline on this. 614 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 7: There's more to the plan. 615 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 4: More they would actually pay for I guess the rest 616 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 4: of DHS and get the Save America stuff on board 617 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 4: and to become law by putting it in a reconciliation bill. 618 00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 4: But the Save America Act doesn't have anything to do 619 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 4: with reconciliation, does it. Will the President find himself wanting 620 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 4: at the end of this game. 621 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 11: I think partially yes. To answer your question directly, yes, 622 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 11: I think so because yes, the argument that the Republicans 623 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 11: are making and regarding the voter ID, most Americans agree 624 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:49,239 Speaker 11: that voter ID is a pretty something that we use 625 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 11: for a lot of things. Right, We issue ID for 626 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 11: a lot of things in this country, and so showing 627 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 11: our idea to vote seems pretty common sense. The problem 628 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 11: is the additives that are in this bill, the Save 629 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,959 Speaker 11: America Act is not just voter ID, and I think 630 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 11: that's what's been misleading to most people. It creates burdens 631 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 11: not just on Democrats, but on Republicans as well, and 632 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 11: so it actually would end up hurting Republicans' ability to 633 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 11: be able to vote because a lot of Republican majority 634 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 11: states use mail in ballots and mail in voting, and 635 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 11: so that's just one example of the things that would 636 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 11: be problematic. So I do think the president looking ahead, 637 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:20,480 Speaker 11: he needs to get out of the situation that he 638 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 11: is more or less made upon himself by putting these 639 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 11: demands around what Congress can do and what bills he 640 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:29,359 Speaker 11: will sign. And so your GENI I understand her wanting 641 00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,680 Speaker 11: to be hesitant here, but I do believe the president 642 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,280 Speaker 11: is capitulating because of the backlash of what we're seeing 643 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 11: play out at airports across the country. But also when 644 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 11: you have these TSA agents saying next to ICE agents 645 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 11: who are funded more or less through the same mechanism, 646 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 11: but TSA agents are not getting paid right now because 647 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 11: of the boon and immigration enforcement that came last year 648 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,919 Speaker 11: through tax cuts, that the President's able to pay ICE 649 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,720 Speaker 11: agents and not TSA agents. It feels very much directly 650 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 11: related to what Trump is deciding is important and what's 651 00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 11: not important, and that becomes problematic for voters. 652 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 7: All right, So we got two tacos. 653 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,720 Speaker 4: It sounds like two taco Tuesdays in Mara and Janie, 654 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 4: just quickly, Mara, you worked for a Speaker of the 655 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 4: House in John Bayner. Do you think the HS is 656 00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 4: about to reopen? 657 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 7: I think it needs to. 658 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,319 Speaker 11: I think that people are calling Republicans and Democrats and 659 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 11: saying enough, I don't care whose fault it is, fix 660 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 11: this problem. 661 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:24,720 Speaker 7: Mhm okay. 662 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,800 Speaker 4: I want to ask you about the new secretary, because 663 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 4: in the next hour, Genie, it will be Secretary Mark 664 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 4: Wayne Mullen, who, in his confirmation hearing describe his relationship 665 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 4: with the President to be friends. First, he said, we 666 00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 4: speak usually as friends, and I know the President went 667 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 4: out of his way to help Mullen's family over the years. 668 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 7: They have a long relationship. 669 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 4: What is this going to mean to have well, I 670 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 4: guess the former Senator from Oklahoma at the helm. 671 00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:52,640 Speaker 7: Well. 672 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 10: I think for members of Congress who voted for him, 673 00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:00,319 Speaker 10: including two Democrats, I think it is their whole to 674 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:04,080 Speaker 10: put behind them what has been a very chaotic and 675 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,360 Speaker 10: at least by the way it's been presented in the press, 676 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:11,000 Speaker 10: an inhumane treatment of many people both in and out 677 00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:16,759 Speaker 10: of DHS under Christineoman and Corey Lewandowski. Corey Lewandowski, who 678 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,640 Speaker 10: in the last just few days has been the subject 679 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:26,040 Speaker 10: of enormous investigative journalism uncovering what is purported to be bribes, 680 00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 10: and we know the House Oversight Dems I have launched 681 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 10: an investigation into that. So chaos was reigning at DHS. 682 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 10: It's a critically important, obviously area for Donald Trump politically 683 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,359 Speaker 10: and for all of us as Americans. So I think 684 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,720 Speaker 10: that's the hope that we should say. Mark Wayne Mullen 685 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 10: during his confirmation hearing said he was open to and 686 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 10: in fact negotiating prior to being named about issues like 687 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 10: the judicial warrants, being more open to that kind of thing. 688 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,760 Speaker 10: So you know, Heinrich, who voted for Briman is also 689 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 10: a friend of his, said those were some of the 690 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 10: reasons that he voted for him as a Democrat. But 691 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,399 Speaker 10: I think we have to take a wait and see attitude. 692 00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 10: For my money, I think the most important questioning he 693 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,320 Speaker 10: got during the hearing was from Melissa Slutkin, who said, 694 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 10: are you going to allow ICE agents to go into 695 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 10: polling boots in November? Are you going to allow them 696 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,520 Speaker 10: at our polling sites? As we have now seen ICE 697 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,200 Speaker 10: agents in places they shouldn't be, like airports. This is 698 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 10: an enormous concern and I don't think we got a 699 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,719 Speaker 10: real clear answer to that. So those are the kinds 700 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,279 Speaker 10: of things I think we have to take away and 701 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,680 Speaker 10: see attitude. And Joe I have to say on the 702 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,000 Speaker 10: save Act. Finally that the president, as part of the 703 00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:49,600 Speaker 10: Save Act, has been trying to end mail in ballots. Well, 704 00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 10: Joe and Mora guests who just voted by mail in 705 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,000 Speaker 10: ballot in ponds. 706 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:55,120 Speaker 7: I noticed that. 707 00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,960 Speaker 10: The president of the United States, so what's good for 708 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,480 Speaker 10: the goose should be good for the rest of us. 709 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 7: But apparently not. 710 00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 4: Pesky facts that you point out here. Genie Mara, what 711 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 4: do you think about this? This MMA fighter, a millionaire, 712 00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:20,160 Speaker 4: former plumber turned senator becoming the Secretary of Homeland Security. 713 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 4: Is he going to bring the leadership that some people 714 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,479 Speaker 4: say as an agency in disarray needs right now? 715 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,319 Speaker 11: I think for Donald Trump, you know, it's probably an 716 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,720 Speaker 11: idea of his mind of central casting, and it's something 717 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,719 Speaker 11: he likes to have, this vision of strength. He likes 718 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 11: to have that around him, especially right now you're watching that. 719 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 11: The President really loves to have this idea of power 720 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:47,319 Speaker 11: and strength, and so for him, that's right there is 721 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,759 Speaker 11: Mark ray Mullen and so but I think for people 722 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,280 Speaker 11: who work within and around the DHS, they're probably hoping 723 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 11: that it's a calm and not the scandal ridden DHS 724 00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:00,200 Speaker 11: under Christie Nooman, Corey Lewandowski, And you know, I been 725 00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:01,760 Speaker 11: Stephen Miller in that department as well. 726 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 7: He's in't relatively quiet. 727 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,239 Speaker 11: I think there's a reason for that. I think that 728 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:09,320 Speaker 11: there is hopes there the administration to gain back control 729 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 11: over DHS in a more you know, not as heavy 730 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,759 Speaker 11: handed as Christian dum was trying to do, but in 731 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,319 Speaker 11: a more streamline process. And I think between Tom Holman 732 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,239 Speaker 11: and Mark wy mollan, that's probably the hope there. 733 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,160 Speaker 4: You know, it turns out Gregory Bovino is not a 734 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:25,240 Speaker 4: big fan of Tom Holman. 735 00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:26,000 Speaker 7: Genie. 736 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:29,320 Speaker 4: The profile today in The New York Times Bovino's final 737 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,160 Speaker 4: days harsh words and fewer regrets. 738 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:34,080 Speaker 7: He mocks Homan. 739 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:38,760 Speaker 4: The administration's borders are referencing accusations. Remember the fifty thousand 740 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,279 Speaker 4: dollars in the bag. You're not going to see me 741 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,520 Speaker 4: talking anyone for a bag of money, he said. Some 742 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,439 Speaker 4: of the quotes are really something I wish I'd caught 743 00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 4: even more illegal aliens, he said. I mean, we went 744 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 4: as hard as we could, but there's always a creative 745 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,320 Speaker 4: and innovative solution to catching even more. 746 00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,440 Speaker 7: Genie. That's the kind of public relationship. 747 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,319 Speaker 4: In this battle that the incoming secretary is going to 748 00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:04,879 Speaker 4: have to fight here right in our remaining moment. 749 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,440 Speaker 7: What does he do about it? 750 00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,920 Speaker 10: He absolutely is I think he should say good riddance 751 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,840 Speaker 10: to Baveno with his jacket, that we all remain. Tom 752 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:17,160 Speaker 10: Holman has at least been able to introduce some more 753 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 10: civility in Minneapolis, and hopefully that continues elsewhere. And I 754 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,080 Speaker 10: do think that we're going to see Mullen try to 755 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,680 Speaker 10: just lean on Homan, say goodbye to Bovino, and push 756 00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,839 Speaker 10: back on Miller to Morris's point as much as he can. 757 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,880 Speaker 10: At least that's my hope. But again, the question is 758 00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,360 Speaker 10: does he allow ice agents in other areas of our lives? 759 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,920 Speaker 4: Genie Shanzino and Mora Gillespie many thanks for the insights. 760 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,400 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 761 00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,400 Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 762 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,080 Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 763 00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,960 Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time 764 00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 4: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.