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Speaker 3: I'm David Ego from the podcast Inner Cosmos, which recently

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Speaker 3: hit the number one science podcast in America. I mean

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Speaker 3: neuroscientists at Stanford and I've spent my career exploring the

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Speaker 1: Hey Katie, what's the weather going to be like tomorrow?

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Speaker 1: And you're part of Italy?

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Speaker 4: Let me check it says it's gonna be sunny with

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Speaker 4: a chance of meatballs.

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Speaker 1: And you believed that or the weather predictions pretty reliable

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Speaker 1: over there, not really.

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Speaker 4: We're kind of near the Alps and that seems to

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Speaker 4: scramble whatever weather radar that they use. So sometimes you

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Speaker 4: plant a picnic and sometimes you get meatballed on.

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Speaker 1: It's sure would be nice if the weather is more reliable,

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Speaker 1: like it was just a pattern and it repeated, like.

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Speaker 4: You could sort of schedule the rain at like two

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Speaker 4: pm and then at three o'clock you get some snow.

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Speaker 1: That would be awesome. Or you know, you could also

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Speaker 1: just try my strategy.

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Speaker 4: What's that?

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Speaker 1: Just move to a place where there isn't any weather.

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Speaker 1: It's just sunny every day.

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Speaker 4: So essentially you're going to move to the moon.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes southern California does feel like the moon.

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Speaker 4: Is it because of all the people just as alien?

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Speaker 1: It's because of all the people acting like aliens. Hi,

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Speaker 1: I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist and a professor at

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Speaker 1: UC Irvine in southern California, and I definitely do appreciate

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Speaker 1: the sunshine.

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Speaker 4: My name is Katie. I'm the host of Creature Feature

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Speaker 4: and Animals podcast. I live in northern Italy and I

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Speaker 4: do appreciate that our weather is mainly like pasta and

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Speaker 4: pesto based.

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Speaker 1: And I know we're joking around, but is there an

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Speaker 1: expression in Italian that's something like a cloudy with a

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Speaker 1: chance of meatballs? Or is that a purely American thing?

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Speaker 4: I think that's pretty American. In fact, meatballs are not

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Speaker 4: so much of a thing in Italy. It's as much

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Speaker 4: of the iconic Italian food as it seems in the

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Speaker 4: US that is more kind of an Americanized version of Italy.

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Speaker 4: So it's neither on our plates nor in our weather.

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Speaker 1: So there's no like strange weather event that would make

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Speaker 1: Italians say it's rainy, meatballs, huge pieces of hail or

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Speaker 1: something not that I know of. Now, well, welcome to

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Speaker 1: the podcast Daniel and Jorge explain the Universe, in which

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Speaker 1: we examine all of the crazy and amazing and surprising

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Speaker 1: things that the universe does. We dig into whether it

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Speaker 1: all makes sense and whether it can be predicted, whether

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Speaker 1: we can find simple scientific mathematical stories that explain all

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Speaker 1: of the amazing things that the universe does, from compressing

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Speaker 1: matter the hearts of black holes, to whizzing quarks and

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Speaker 1: gluons together inside neutron stars, to causing all of the

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Speaker 1: weather patterns on Earth. Maybe even wiping out huge parts

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Speaker 1: of life on the planet.

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Speaker 4: Well, this sounds fun.

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Speaker 1: We try to be an uplifting podcast as usual, though

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Speaker 1: we don't shy away from facing the truth and from

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Speaker 1: accepting our ignorance of it. My friend and usual co host,

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Speaker 1: Jorge can't be here today, but I'm very glad to

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Speaker 1: be joined by one of our regular co hosts, Katie. Katie,

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Speaker 1: thanks again for joining us.

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Speaker 4: Yea absolutely. I noticed Jorge is suspiciously absent the day

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Speaker 4: we're talking about asteroid impacts, and I gotta ask, does

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Speaker 4: he got a secret spaceship?

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Speaker 1: Maybe he's the one causing the asteroid impacts, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's the one dropping these things on the planet.

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Speaker 4: Has Jorge ever been in the same room with you

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Speaker 4: as the asteroid?

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Speaker 1: No, but it does seem like sometimes he does want

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Speaker 1: to wipe everything out. But I love thinking about the

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Speaker 1: long history of life on Earth. You know, we are

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Speaker 1: curious beings. We look around ourselves here on the planet.

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Speaker 1: We wonder how did we get here? How did the

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Speaker 1: Earth end up to be this way and not some

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Speaker 1: other way? And one of the more fascinating things about

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Speaker 1: the history of life on Earth is how much it

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Speaker 1: hinges on certain tipping points, specific moments in history which

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Speaker 1: if they had gone another way, we might not be here,

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Speaker 1: or we might look totally different, or we might have

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Speaker 1: feathers or three heads. It's fun to imagine all alternative earths.

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Speaker 1: If you had run this experimental universe many times and

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Speaker 1: had different earths, what would life on Earth look like

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Speaker 1: at this point? Would there still be dinosaurs? Would we

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Speaker 1: all be huge intelligent ladybugs. It's fun to imagine all

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Speaker 1: the different varieties and what chance there was for us

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Speaker 1: to actually get here.

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Speaker 4: I love the idea of being huge intelligent ladybugs. I

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Speaker 4: think we'd need a lot more oxygen for that, but

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Speaker 4: I think we would also look much more fashionable.

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Speaker 1: Do you think ladybugs, if they developed intelligence and technology,

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Speaker 1: would also develop clothing. I mean, because they already look

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Speaker 1: good naked.

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Speaker 4: They already look pretty fantastic. But I can't imagine some

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Speaker 4: sort of fashion revolution of a ladybug who dares to

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Speaker 4: wear stripes instead of dots.

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Speaker 1: The Ladybug Fashion Podcast pretty controversial stuff, but it is

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Speaker 1: part of our job here, not just to understand what

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Speaker 1: are the basic rules of the universe? How do the

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Speaker 1: tiny particles come together and weave our reality out of

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Speaker 1: little quarks and gluons and electrons, whatever or other particles

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Speaker 1: might be out there. How does the dark matter shape

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Speaker 1: the formation of the universe. We also like to think

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Speaker 1: about the formation of life here on Earth and what

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Speaker 1: happened to create this story, What exactly led to us

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Speaker 1: being here having a podcast that isn't hosted by two ladybugs.

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Speaker 4: I mean, in a way, we are feasting on the

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Speaker 4: bones of dinosaurs because by their mass death came the

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Speaker 4: rise of mammals, and we are mammals, so we can

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Speaker 4: thank a dead dinosaur for being here, I think, in

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Speaker 4: my opinion, do you think.

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Speaker 1: That's like the best example of inherited privilege ever? You know,

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Speaker 1: it's like, we're not responsible for the dinosaurs extinction directly,

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Speaker 1: but we're definitely benefiting from the fact that they were

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Speaker 1: wiped out.

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Speaker 4: Are you saying that some kind of very early prehistoric

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Speaker 4: shrew was colluding with the asteroid and saying make it

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Speaker 4: look like an accident.

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Speaker 1: It certainly does seem convenient, right, You know, when we

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Speaker 1: benefit from these.

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Speaker 4: Kinds of things, well, hopefully the dinosaurs of today, that is, birds,

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Speaker 4: will not sue us. Statute of limitations is long, long, long, expired.

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Speaker 1: And one fascinating thing about the history of life on

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Speaker 1: Earth is that it is punctuated with these mass extinctions.

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Speaker 1: It's not just the asteroid that hit the Earth that

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Speaker 1: probably wiped out the dinosaurs that created a new flowering

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Speaker 1: of mammals. There are many times in the history of

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Speaker 1: life on Earth when there were these wipeout events where

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Speaker 1: a huge fraction of life on Earth was killed, making

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Speaker 1: room for new developments, new explorations of the evolutionary tree

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Speaker 1: by the remaining life. And it's interesting to think about

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Speaker 1: how each of these contribute to us being here today. Right,

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Speaker 1: if all of those hadn't gone exactly the way that

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Speaker 1: they went, we wouldn't be here talking about it. Maybe

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Speaker 1: we wouldn't even be any intelligent life on Earth. It

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Speaker 1: would just be a bunch of dumb dinosaurs tewing on

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Speaker 1: each other and nibbling on plants, right.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's just hard to know where things would

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Speaker 4: have been. I mean, as you said, like when there

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Speaker 4: is a die off of animals, there is an opportunity

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Speaker 4: as long as the Earth is still habitable for a

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Speaker 4: new kind of group, a resurgence of species who otherwise

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Speaker 4: would not be able to really thrive because they'd be

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Speaker 4: out competed by the animals that went extinct. So it's

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Speaker 4: hard to imagine. You know, if dinosaurs hadn't died off,

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe there would not have been evolutionary pressure

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Speaker 4: for anyone species to become as intelligent as humans. Maybe

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Speaker 4: it would have been too dangerous a life for primates

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Speaker 4: to have been able to come to power. It's just

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Speaker 4: it's so hard to know. Of course, you know, we

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Speaker 4: could have also just been like two dinosaurs now talking

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Speaker 4: about stuff on the podcast, talking about like what if

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Speaker 4: we had gone extinct because of an asteroid? Would some

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Speaker 4: of those little shrews turn into weird pink things?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And I think there's something really interesting that

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Speaker 1: you brought up there that's not widely enough appreciated, which

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Speaker 1: is the importance of ra randomness and opportunity in evolution. Now,

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Speaker 1: some people feel like evolution is this transformation where species

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Speaker 1: develop into more and more advanced versions of themselves. But

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Speaker 1: you know, there's really a randomness there, Like how does

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Speaker 1: the species change from generation to generation. It's from like

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Speaker 1: changes in the genetic code, which come from transcription errors

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Speaker 1: or cosmic rays. There's no design here. It's really just

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Speaker 1: like a random walk through genetic space. Right, It's like

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Speaker 1: throwing a bunch of dice to see what your kids

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Speaker 1: are going to be.

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Speaker 4: Like, yeah, I mean, so evolution doesn't have a game plan.

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Speaker 4: I think that's one of the most important things to

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Speaker 4: understand is evolution is not this like efficient force perfecting

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Speaker 4: things into their most like quote unquote perfect forms. It's

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Speaker 4: just a very simple rule. If something survives and passes

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Speaker 4: on its genetic information, hooray, it survived and passed on

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Speaker 4: its genetic information to the next that's it. That is

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Speaker 4: absolutely it. And from that extremely simple rule you get

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Speaker 4: in incredibly marvelous complexity. So there are a lot of

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Speaker 4: things that can happen. It's not just the random mutation

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Speaker 4: of DNA, it's the reshuffling of DNA, right, you have

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Speaker 4: like mate choice, what happens there, And then it's the environment,

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Speaker 4: like what happens with your environment. There can be random

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Speaker 4: changes in the environment that leads to selective pressures, to

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Speaker 4: extinction events, to changes in related species that then causes

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Speaker 4: the other species to have to evolve. So there are

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Speaker 4: so many factors that go into evolution that from this

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Speaker 4: incredibly simple rule, Just like if you can pass on

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Speaker 4: your DNA. Yeah, you did it, You passed on your DNA,

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Speaker 4: and then the next generation gets a shot at that.

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Speaker 4: That has turned into just this incredibly immensely complex and

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Speaker 4: convoluted situation with life on Earth, where sometimes an animal

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Speaker 4: will have weird features that we try to look at,

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Speaker 4: we think, what is this, what is the thing? Why

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Speaker 4: did they evolve it? And it just turns out it's

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Speaker 4: this weird artifact of earlier evolution or something like, you know,

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Speaker 4: we have this appendix and it's kind of mysterious. What

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Speaker 4: does it do. We're not really sure if it has

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Speaker 4: much of a purpose for us. But it's not like

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Speaker 4: evolution has that foresight of like, well, I better take

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Speaker 4: this appendix out because they're not really going to need

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Speaker 4: it that much as modern humans. So like, it's not

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Speaker 4: an intelligent designer. It's kind of just improv all the time.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a really fascinating aspect of it, not

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Speaker 1: just that there's a randomness there, but that it's so

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Speaker 1: tightly linked to the environment in which this exploration is happening. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's really a reflection, it's like a mirroring of the

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Speaker 1: situation that's doing the selection because one animal might survive

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Speaker 1: very well in one context and just die off rapidly

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Speaker 1: in another. And so the animals, the life we have

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Speaker 1: here on Earth is a reflection of the selection pressure

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Speaker 1: which comes from the environment in which we live, of course, right,

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Speaker 1: but that goes also backwards in time. As you say,

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Speaker 1: it's like it's telling the story of the selection pressure

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Speaker 1: over time. Every species that survives has survived through changing environments. Right,

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Speaker 1: Things were colder and then they were hotter, and in

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Speaker 1: order to get here, you had to manage all of

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Speaker 1: those changes somehow. It's your population grows and evolves and

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Speaker 1: gains hair and loses hair and all that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's really fascinating that not only does

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Speaker 1: the Earth itself tell the histories you like, dig down

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Speaker 1: through the layers and see layers of rock and events

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Speaker 1: that have happened through the history, but life on Earth

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Speaker 1: also carries with it the history of its evolution. Right,

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Speaker 1: as you say, why do you have this vestigial bit, Oh, well,

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Speaker 1: we needed that millions of years ago, and we're still

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Speaker 1: getting rid of it due to the new pressure. So

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Speaker 1: I think that's super fascinating to look at the history

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Speaker 1: of life on Earth and to me, that's one of

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Speaker 1: the most important things about science is answering this question,

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Speaker 1: like how did we get here? What is the story

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Speaker 1: of us? It tells us sort of how to live

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Speaker 1: our lives and who we are, and in some sense,

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Speaker 1: you know, as much as science can, it tells us

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Speaker 1: why we're here at least what happened before we got here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think it's so interesting because our life

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Speaker 4: spans are relatively short compared to the universe, even compared

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Speaker 4: to our own Earth. So our perception of what is stable, right,

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Speaker 4: like what stable species are existence is warped by our

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Speaker 4: you know, relatively short life spans, and so we have

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Speaker 4: this sense of things are as they are. Giraffes have

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Speaker 4: always existed, We've always existed, but that's really not the case.

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Speaker 4: And you know, when we look at some of these

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Speaker 4: animals that have gone extinct and we think like, wow,

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Speaker 4: how could something that strange have existed? Well, maybe, hopefully

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Speaker 4: if we're still alive in like a thousand years. Potentially

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Speaker 4: some species like the panda that's highly specialized to eat

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Speaker 4: massive quantities of bamboo, which makes it very vulnerable to

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Speaker 4: extinction if there's an environmental change, you know, we might

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Speaker 4: look back and say, like, how could such a silly

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Speaker 4: animal have existed where it's entire diet is dependent on

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Speaker 4: bamboo and they're really bad at may in captivity. I

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Speaker 4: think we have this very narrow view in our own lifespan,

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Speaker 4: so it becomes kind of fascinating when we zoom out

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Speaker 4: and look at the history of the planet and you're like, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 4: we're just like little babies, Like we're a little baby species.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And it's hard for us because we tend to

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Speaker 1: think in timescales of hours, minutes, years, maybe centuries to

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Speaker 1: understand processes that go on that are much much slower.

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Speaker 1: You know, it took us a long time to appreciate

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Speaker 1: how old the Earth was. The first hints we had

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Speaker 1: that it might be billions of years old blew people's

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Speaker 1: minds because it was just such a strange concept. Understanding

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Speaker 1: geological processes like the formations of the continents and like

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Speaker 1: glaciation were hard for people because we don't tend to

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Speaker 1: think in sort of deep time. And yet we know

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Speaker 1: that these processes really do shape and influence the nature

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Speaker 1: of the world in which we live. And maybe most

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Speaker 1: interesting and most dramatic are the cataclysmic events, right, the

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Speaker 1: ones where if the asteroid hits somewhere different, maybe the

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Speaker 1: dinosaurs wouldn't have wiped out. Or if dinosaur scientists had

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Speaker 1: looked up in the sky and seen it coming, developed

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Speaker 1: technology too diverted, you know, then maybe things really would

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Speaker 1: be different. I love those moments when history could really

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Speaker 1: take lots of different courses.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, dinosaur Matt Damon and a dinosaur Jennifer Lawrence trying

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Speaker 4: to figure things out.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if the dinosaur version of that movie would

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Speaker 1: have been any better.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it is that. I do think about

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Speaker 4: those cataclysmic events quite a bit, you know, just that

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Speaker 4: our vulnerability of you know, as a single human, we're

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Speaker 4: relatively vulnerable in our little, fleshy bodies, but then our

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Speaker 4: planet also feels somewhat vulnerable, just this like little paradise

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Speaker 4: of being able to be alive on it in a

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Speaker 4: pretty unforgiving universe. And then just that rock just traveling

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Speaker 4: along randomly could just whoop, you know, spell the end

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Speaker 4: for an entire planet of species.

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Speaker 1: It's somewhat terrifying right to know that these rocks are

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Speaker 1: out there, and if one of them falls into the gravity, well,

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Speaker 1: the Earth it could end all life on Earth or

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Speaker 1: some lives on Earth. It would certainly would not be

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Speaker 1: a good day. And as we saw in the nineties,

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Speaker 1: these kind of things do happen, like comet Shoemaker Levy,

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Speaker 1: which came into the Solar System smashed into Jupiter, creating

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Speaker 1: fireballs bigger than planet Earth. So this is not only

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Speaker 1: something that happens than the deep history of time, it's

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Speaker 1: something that could happen. We don't know when NASA is

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Speaker 1: doing its best to track these asteroids, but beyond that

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Speaker 1: we wonder, like, is it possible to predict these events

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Speaker 1: far in the future. Is there some sort of like

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Speaker 1: deep time process sort of like glaciation or like formations

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Speaker 1: of the continents which we can't yet imagine because it

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Speaker 1: happens on a galactic scale, which is shaping these asteroid impacts,

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Speaker 1: which is maybe creating patterns that we could understand which

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Speaker 1: we could use to predict so we could know. Ope, guys,

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Speaker 1: we only got a million more years before the next

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Speaker 1: wave of killer asteroids. Better start funding those spaceships.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'd like to know, because if an

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Speaker 4: asteroid's coming in like the next year, I know I

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Speaker 4: can skip a dentist appointment.

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Speaker 1: So don't bother saving for retirement folks. So on today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we'll be asking the question, is there a pattern to

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Speaker 1: major asteroid impacts on Earth?

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Speaker 4: And is it gonna benefit us to know this or

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Speaker 4: just make us scared?

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Speaker 1: You can short the stock market because you know all

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Speaker 1: life on Earth is going so put everything in gold, folks.

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Speaker 1: This is now a financial investment podcast.

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Speaker 4: I believe that's illegal. But also if the asteroid is

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Speaker 4: made out of gold, maybe you shouldn't invest in it

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Speaker 4: because then we will be inundated with gold and then

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Speaker 4: also extremely dead. That's not actual financial advice. Don't sue me.

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Speaker 1: So you're saying that when we're wiped out and the

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Speaker 1: Ladybug civilization rises up in our ashes, they're going to

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Speaker 1: find so much gold everywhere. It's just going to be

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Speaker 1: like they're paving their streets in gold.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they're building their little Ladybug toilets at a goal.

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Speaker 1: So what is Ladybug Donald Trump then going to do

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Speaker 1: to make his bathroom extra blink? Well as usual? I

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Speaker 1: was wondering if people out there had thought about if

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Speaker 1: there was a pattern to major asteroid impacts, and if

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Speaker 1: there was something we could do to predict it. So

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Speaker 1: thanks very much to everybody who participates in these off

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Speaker 1: the cuff answers on the virtual street. If you would

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Speaker 1: like to play this role for future episodes, please don't

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Speaker 1: be shy. Write to me two questions at Danielandjorge dot com.

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Speaker 1: So think about it for a moment before you hear

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Speaker 1: these answers. Do you think there's a pattern to major

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Speaker 1: asteroid impacts on Earth? Here's what some listeners had to say.

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Speaker 6: I think I heard once it's like every thirty million

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Speaker 6: years or something like that there's this massive asteroid that

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Speaker 6: crashes into Earth and basically wipes off all of the

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Speaker 6: life on it.

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Speaker 1: But I don't really know.

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Speaker 6: I don't think there's like any sort of pattern to

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Speaker 6: the distribution of asteroids.

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Speaker 1: The moose pods will collide with us at some point

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Speaker 1: or in the post.

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Speaker 6: Island, So I don't think that there's a pattern of

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Speaker 6: asteroid impacts. It's orbital mechanics. Anything more than two bodies

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Speaker 6: is pretty chaotic and random. But I do think that

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Speaker 6: there is a governing frequency that decreases over time, so

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Speaker 6: as our Earth and Solar system get older, impacts become

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Speaker 6: less frequent.

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Speaker 7: I think you get some patterns with asteroids, because wouldn't

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Speaker 7: you get kind of like a cyclic almost resonant wave

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Speaker 7: function if you sped things up on a macroscale, just

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Speaker 7: since everything's orbiting, you could kind of mathematically predict when

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Speaker 7: it might fling stuff in our direction. I don't know.

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Speaker 8: Well, hopefully if it's a pattern, it will show us

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Speaker 8: that no major asteroid will hit the Earth in the future,

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Speaker 8: or until we are able to defend ourselves properly to

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Speaker 8: find them, because probably this is the most difficult thing,

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Speaker 8: just to see them in time for us to prepare

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Speaker 8: to do something about it.

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Speaker 4: I really do agree with the person who says that

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Speaker 4: they hope that no asteroid hits Earth until we're ready

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Speaker 4: to defend ourselves, because I feel like if we just

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Speaker 4: learn like in one hundred years we're going to get

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Speaker 4: a big one, but we have no way to do

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Speaker 4: anything about it, that'd be a bit of a bummer.

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Speaker 4: I'll be honest with you.

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Speaker 1: What do you mean we have no way to do

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Speaker 1: anything about it? You have no faith in physicists and

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Speaker 1: engineers to save the planet.

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Speaker 4: It depends on how fast you guys are at writing

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Speaker 4: grant proposals. I guess. So, if we've got an asteroid

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Speaker 4: coming in one hundred years, maybe you can do it.

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Speaker 4: But if it's like five weeks, do you think we

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Speaker 4: could do something about it?

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Speaker 1: You know, the key really is to discovering these things

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Speaker 1: early on. If you see far in advance that it's

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Speaker 1: coming that only needs a little bit of a push

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Speaker 1: to not hit the Earth. It's sort of like if

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Speaker 1: somebody's firing a sniper shot from five miles away, the

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Speaker 1: tiniest little deviation in the direction of their rifle means

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Speaker 1: they're going to miss their target. So if you can

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Speaker 1: figure out that this thing is going to come in

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Speaker 1: one hundred years, then even the faintest little push, you

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Speaker 1: could throw a rock at it or zap it with

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Speaker 1: a laser and they would miss the Earth. You only

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Speaker 1: have a few weeks of notice. Then it's much much harder.

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Speaker 1: You have to give it a much bigger push. But actually,

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Speaker 1: you know, this week, as we record this episode, NASA

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Speaker 1: is doing an amazing test. The Dart probe is out

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Speaker 1: there and it's about to push on an asteroid to

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Speaker 1: see if this works. Can we actually find an asteroid

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Speaker 1: and push on it and see if we can change

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Speaker 1: its direction This is not one that NASA thinks is

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Speaker 1: going to hit the Earth. This is just an experiment

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Speaker 1: to see is it possible to change its trajectory. Also,

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Speaker 1: fortunately it's not one that NASA thinks is going to

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Speaker 1: hit the Earth after they change its trajectory.

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Speaker 7: Right.

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Speaker 4: I was about to say, I really hope they double

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Speaker 4: checked their math and their units, because that would be

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Speaker 4: a heck of a whoopsie.

438
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: That is actually something people worry about developing these tools

439
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: that can affect the future of the human race. Like

440
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,199
Speaker 1: if you can now aim asteroids, then you know, some

441
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: supervillain might decide to use that to threat and Earth

442
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: with asteroids. Right. Another direction people are working on is

443
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: zapping these things with lasers. That sounds like science fiction,

444
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: but you can get a powerful enough laser and zap

445
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: one side of the asteroid, then you can like vaporize

446
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: some of the rock and the ice, and it can

447
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 1: give it a sideways push so that it doesn't hit

448
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: the Earth. There people in Santa Barbara working on these

449
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 1: kind of super lasers. But also that does make me

450
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: worry about you know, like other applications of superri lasers.

451
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 4: Well, like you're not firing this laser from Earth right,

452
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 4: because I would imagine you'd scorch a few birds and

453
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 4: maybe a few planes if you did that.

454
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: I don't think they even have a prototype of this

455
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: laser so far. It's still in the like exploratory studies.

456
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: But there are a range of solutions. We actually have

457
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 1: a whole podcast episode about how to defend the Earth

458
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 1: from asteroids, including gravity tractors and laser beams and giving

459
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: them a push. It all depends on what the thing

460
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: is made out of, Like if it's a pile of

461
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 1: rubbless kind of hard to give it a push, or

462
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 1: if it's a big ball of ice, it's good to

463
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 1: zap it with a laser, And also really depends on

464
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 1: spotting it early and understanding where it comes from. We're

465
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: going to take a quick break, but when we come back,

466
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the source of these deadly

467
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 1: rocks that might wipe out life on Earth, whether or

468
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: not the data suggests there are coming in a pattern,

469
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 1: and what we can do about it.

470
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 4: So, like what angle I should keep my umbrella at.

471
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522
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527
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528
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529
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Speaker 1: washes the barn, and irrigates the crops. How is US

530
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531
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533
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534
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535
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538
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Speaker 1: ability to learn more. All Right, we're back and we're

539
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: talking about whether there's a pattern to asteroid impacts on Earth.

540
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 1: We have some pretty strong evidence. At about sixty five

541
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: million years ago there was a huge impactor. It was

542
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 1: something like five to ten kilometers wide, and it struck

543
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 1: the Earth at twenty thousand miles per hour. You might wonder, like,

544
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: why is it going so fast? Well, most of the

545
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 1: stuff out there in the Solar System is whizzing around

546
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: the Sun pretty fast. It's like we're all in the

547
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: fast land on the freeway, and if somebody comes at

548
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: you at that speed, it's going to be pretty fast.

549
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: But also, the Earth has a lot of gravity, so

550
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: once something comes even near the Earth, and then falls

551
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: to the surface. It gets accelerated by the Earth. The

552
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: Earth is like pulling it in, so by the time

553
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: it hits the ground, it has a lot of velocity.

554
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: And this asteroid impact, we think wiped out about thirty

555
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: percent of the speed she's on Earth at the time,

556
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: including many of the dinosaurs.

557
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think one of the things that

558
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 4: is important to remember is that this did not just

559
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 4: wipe out the dinosaurs only. It wiped out anything and

560
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 4: everything that was around, like a good number of them,

561
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: the things that ended up surviving. It was not like

562
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 4: a dinosaur seeking asteroid that targeted the dinosaur specifically. It

563
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: just targeted anything that was not able to survive the

564
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 4: fallout of what happened after the asteroid hit. I mean,

565
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: I'm sure there was a good amount of death and

566
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 4: the immediate aftermath of the asteroid, but a lot of

567
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 4: it was sort of both long and slow drawn out extinction,

568
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 4: and the exact causes of it aren't precisely known. It's

569
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 4: hard to find really accurate evidence of what exactly happened.

570
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: But you know, there are a lot of theories about,

571
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 4: you know, the ecosystems collapsing because of the you know,

572
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 4: mass amount of debris that cut out the sun, and

573
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 4: of course you don't have as much vegetation, and so

574
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 4: you don't have as many big herbivores, and then you

575
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 4: don't have as many big carnivores. So like that, it

576
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 4: basically you know how these ecosystems are like these Jenga

577
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 4: towers and you pull one thing out and it can collapse. Well,

578
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 4: like this asteroid hitting is like a throwing a tennis

579
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 4: ball at the Jenga tower. And so only the things

580
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 4: that were hardy enough, you know, typically quite small as well,

581
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 4: because they didn't require as much food, were able to survive.

582
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 4: And not all the dinosaurs went extinct, like we still

583
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 4: have birds. Birds are the surviving dinosaurs of this period,

584
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 4: and they were small enough that they were able to

585
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: sort of escape the starvation of these larger dinosaurs that

586
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 4: had much more intensive dietary needs. And that's, like, I think,

587
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 4: to me, is one of the more compelling theories of

588
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 4: what happened.

589
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's important to realize, as you say, that these

590
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: are not like dinosaurs seeking asteroids that didn't come and

591
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: then like hunt down on all the dinosaurs and kill

592
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: them one by one. It really is a lot of

593
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: the death probably came from the change in the environment.

594
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: You know, all this stuff is now up in the

595
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: atmosphere and you're blocking the sun's light and so as

596
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: you say, ecosystems react to that, and now you have

597
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: to survive in a pretty new world. I don't know

598
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: if anybody out there it was a fan of The

599
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: Dinosaur's sitcom. It aired I think in the eighties and nineties,

600
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: but the series finale of that episode actually features like

601
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: basically an asteroid winter where they're all hovering in their

602
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: house as the snow comes down and they're not expecting

603
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 1: to see the sun for years. Sort of a bleak

604
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: ending to a comedy series.

605
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 4: It was a huge bummer. I think it was sort

606
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 4: of a cautionary tale because it was something about some

607
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 4: dino corporation caused this to happen, and so it was

608
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 4: I think supposed to be an environmental message about not

609
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:54,239
Speaker 4: destroying our own planet with global warming or whatever, you know,

610
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 4: potential ramifications of destroying our environment would be. And it

611
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 4: was a comedy. It was like this lighthearted comedy with

612
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 4: these big puppet dinosaurs and like, you know, a dinosaur

613
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 4: baby that would hit the father with the frying pans.

614
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 4: So it's as if The Simpsons ended on basically a

615
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 4: nuclear war and everyone dies.

616
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: How inappropriate to combine, you know, heart hitting science with

617
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: ridiculous jokes. I mean, who would choose that kind of

618
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: venue for talking about such a serious topic. Anyway, let's

619
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: keep making some jokes about how all the dinosaurs were

620
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,239
Speaker 1: wiped out millions of years ago. But I think it's

621
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: important to understand where these things come from. Like, these

622
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: rocks don't just appear in space and get dropped on

623
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: the Earth. These are not like malevolent aliens. As far

624
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: as we know, these are parts of our Solar system.

625
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: One big misimpression is that these rocks might come from

626
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: really deep space, like from outside our Solar system to impact.

627
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: That's actually really quite rare because our star is pretty

628
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: far away from other stars. You know, there's many light

629
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: years between us and the next star, and many many

630
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: more between most stars. So there's only been a few

631
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: examples of times when we've even seen a rock come

632
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: from another Solar system and pass through ours, like O Muamua.

633
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: Most of the times when we're thinking about impacts on Earth,

634
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: we're talking about our own neighbors. We're talking about sources

635
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: in the Solar System.

636
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 4: Isn't that the thing with like murders and stuff where

637
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 4: stranger danger is pretty overly hyped and it's usually someone

638
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 4: you know that murders you. I guess it's the same

639
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 4: thing with asteroids. It's the asteroid you know, your neighbor

640
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 4: that comes and destroys your planet.

641
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: Another good example of inappropriate humor. Katie, Wow, now we're

642
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 1: joking about murders.

643
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 4: I'm going to go to podcast jail.

644
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 6: No.

645
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: But you're exactly right. And the thing to understand is

646
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 1: that the Solar System, like life on Earth, has not

647
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: stopped developing. It's a continuous, ongoing process. Solar system is

648
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: about four and a half billion years old, and it

649
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: started from some huge cloud of gas and dust and

650
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: little bits of rock left over from the death of

651
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: other stars, and it coalesced into these planets and all

652
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: of these bits. But it's a dynamic, ongoing process. And

653
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: as we study our Solar System and compare it to

654
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,719
Speaker 1: other solar systems, we understand that lots of things are

655
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: changing through that history of the Solar System. Planets might

656
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 1: even be changing positioned. We think that Jupiter Modive formed

657
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 1: in the outer part of the Solar System and then

658
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 1: taken a trip to the inner Solar System before being

659
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 1: pulled back out by Saturn into the outer Solar System again.

660
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: So don't think of the Solar System as like a

661
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 1: static place where it's like finished and it's going to

662
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 1: be like this forever. It's still ongoing. And that goes

663
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 1: double for the little bits, not just the planets, but

664
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 1: the extra little rocks that didn't find their way into

665
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: a big planet. So we know, for example that between

666
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 1: Mars and Jupiter there's the asteroid belt, right, These are

667
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: a bunch of little rocks that are not part of

668
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 1: any planet. And it's not just between Mars and Jupiter.

669
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 1: There are actually two blobs that are in Jupiter's orbit,

670
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 1: and that in the same ellipse where Jupiter goes around

671
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 1: the Sun is a blob that goes ahead of them

672
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: and a blob that goes behind them. That I think

673
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 1: is really cool. It shows you sort of why the

674
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 1: asteroids exist. They exist because of Jupiter's gravity. Jupiter's like

675
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: this huge bully in the outer Solar System. If it

676
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: wasn't for Jupiter, these rocks might coalesce into a planet.

677
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: We did an episode recently about why planets get rings

678
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: versus moons, and the answer there was because of the

679
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: tidal forces of the planets, pulling those moons apart into

680
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 1: rings if they're too close. This is sort of a

681
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: similar thing. Jupiter is tugging on all of these guys,

682
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: preventing them from coalescing into a single larger thing. So

683
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,959
Speaker 1: you have this huge collection of rocks. But again that's

684
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 1: not static. It used to be in the much earlier

685
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 1: times in the Solar System that the asteroid belt was

686
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: much much richer, there was much more mass. A lot

687
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 1: of that has gotten lost because it's a little bit unstable.

688
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 1: Things fall in towards the Sun or get knocked out

689
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: of the asteroid belt by collisions or just by Jupiter's gravity.

690
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 4: What causes something to get knocked out of stability? So

691
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 4: you have this asteroid belt, what is the impetus for

692
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 4: one of these asteroids just deciding to go like, well,

693
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 4: see it and fall into the Sun.

694
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: Think about it the other direction. What do you have

695
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: to do in order to survive over billions of years?

696
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 1: You have Jupiter's gravity tugging at you, if all the

697
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: other planets also tugging at you even less, and of

698
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: course the Sun. In order to survive, you have to

699
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 1: somehow balance all of those things for billions of years.

700
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 1: So you start out with a huge number of rocks,

701
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 1: and nobody's organized these right, They're just sort of like

702
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: out there in the Solar System. They formed gravitationally, and

703
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: most of them are just not on trajectories that are

704
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 1: going to survive. They're going to get tugged by Jupiter,

705
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: or they're gonna get yanked by Mars, or they're gonna

706
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: feel Saturns pull and then eventually they're going to fall

707
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 1: into the Sun or into another planet. So it requires

708
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: like a really delicate balance of all of those gravitational

709
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: factors in order to survive this long and as time

710
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 1: goes on, you're less and less likely to survive because

711
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: you know, it's really chaotic. Like you can orbit a

712
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 1: single object pretty stably for a long long time, you're

713
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: just feeling gravity towards it. You have the right angle

714
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: you can orbit. Now you add another object in the

715
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 1: Solar System, another thing with heavy gravity becomes much more

716
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 1: complicated to keep a stable orbit. Like the Earth, for example,

717
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: its orbit is constantly being tweaked by Jupiter and by

718
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: saturning these tiny little tugs, and so it's hard to

719
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: find a path which is going to be stable over

720
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: billions of years. It's amazing, frankly, that any of these

721
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: asteroids were able to survive this fairly chaotic gravitational system

722
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 1: that long.

723
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 4: I mean that kind of sounds similar to evolution, where

724
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 4: you know, the rule is simple. If you survive, you survive,

725
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 4: and if you don't, you get tossed into the sun

726
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 4: or pulled into the sun.

727
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: Yeah. The difference here is that there's no way to reproduce, right,

728
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 1: there's no way to replenish.

729
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 4: These meteors that we know of.

730
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 1: That we know of exactly unless like two planets collide

731
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: and create a lot of debris. But our model of

732
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,959
Speaker 1: the asteroid belt is that it's like zero point one

733
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: percent of its original mass. The first one hundred million

734
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: years of the Solar System were pretty chaotic. Their collisions

735
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: all the time and things were falling out of it.

736
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: So the asteroid belt we think now is much much

737
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: less mass than it used to be. In total, if

738
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: you took like all the asteroids and the asteroid belt

739
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 1: and add them up, it'd be less than five percent

740
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: of the mass of our moon. So there's not actually

741
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 1: that much stuff.

742
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 4: Out there, is that good news for us Because the

743
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 4: more stuff, it seems like, the more likely we're gonna

744
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 4: get hit by that stuff.

745
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: That's very good news for us. We want fewer asteroids

746
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 1: because each one is like a bullet, right, Any of

747
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 1: these things, if they're bigger than like ten kilometers or

748
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,439
Speaker 1: so and they hit the Earth, that's an extinction event, right,

749
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 1: that's really catastrophic. Some of these guys are huge. Like

750
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 1: there's a dwarf planet in the asteroid belt, it's called Series,

751
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: and it's nine hundred and fifty kilometers in diameter. Right,

752
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: that would just obliterate the surface of the Earth completely.

753
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 4: That sounds pretty serious. So it seems like earlier on,

754
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 4: like we probably had more asteroid collisions near Earth because

755
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 4: like the Moon has a bunch of craters, But has

756
00:38:56,160 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 4: the Moon been hit by asteroids more recently? Was that

757
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 4: like debris from Earth hitting the Moon? Why do we

758
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 4: have more craters? Like that seem to be old then

759
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 4: we are currently experiencing in terms of getting hit by

760
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 4: space rocks.

761
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a few things going on there. It's true

762
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: that we have fewer space rocks hitting things now than

763
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: we used to In the very early days of the

764
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: Solar system, just because there are fewer and we sort

765
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 1: of run out and the trend is towards things coalescing

766
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 1: into larger objects, so we just have fewer of these rocks,

767
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: which means fewer impacts, but there still are a lot

768
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: of impacts. And if you look at the Moon, there's

769
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: a very rich history there of impacts and you can see,

770
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 1: for example, really big craters that you can tell are

771
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 1: old with smaller craters inside them, and so you can

772
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: use that to tell like which ones happened first because

773
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: of the small crater it happened first, the big one

774
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: would have obliterated it. So you can tell the sort

775
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: of like the layers of cratering there, and you can

776
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 1: use that to try to reconstruct something about the history

777
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 1: of cratering on the Moon. But yeah, there was definitely

778
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: more cratering earlier on. And remember that the Moon doesn't

779
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: really have much of an atmosphere, has almost no atmosphere.

780
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: We just did an episode about the Moon's atmosphere. It's

781
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: like a few molecules per cubic centimeter, whereas the Earth

782
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: is like ten to nineteen molecules per cubic centimeter. And

783
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 1: that's a huge shield. Any rock that hits the Moon

784
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 1: is going to cause a crater, whereas a rock that

785
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: hits the Earth, if it's not big enough, it's going

786
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: to burn up in our atmosphere and we're not going

787
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 1: to see it. So every surface of the Solar System

788
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 1: is constantly getting bombarded by smaller rocks and sometimes bigger

789
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: ones Earth. We don't often notice that because our atmosphere

790
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 1: protects us, but a big enough one is definitely going

791
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 1: to make it to the surface of the Earth and

792
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: do some damage.

793
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 4: Well, I want to hear about how we can prodeict

794
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 4: whether one of these big ones are gonna hit us,

795
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,399
Speaker 4: But I think first I'm going to take a quick

796
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 4: break to hide under the bed a little bit.

797
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: When you pop a piece of cheese into your mouth

798
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 1: or enjoy a rich spoonful full of Greek yogurt, you're

799
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 1: probably not thinking about the environmental impact of each and

800
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: every bite. But the people in the dairy industry are us.

801
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: Dairy has set themselves some ambitious sustainability goals, including being

802
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 1: greenhouse gas neutral by twenty to fifty That's why they're

803
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 1: working hard every day to find new ways to reduce waste,

804
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 1: conserve natural resources, and drive down greenhouse gas emissions. Take water,

805
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 1: for example, most dairy farms reuse water up to four times.

806
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 1: The same water cools the milk, cleans equipment, washes the barn,

807
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: and irrigates the crops. How is US dairy tackling greenhouse gases?

808
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: Many farms use anaerobic digestors that turn the methane from

809
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 1: maneuver into renewable energy that can power farms, towns, and

810
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: electric cars. So the next time you grab a slice

811
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: of pizza or lick an ice cream cone, know that

812
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 1: dairy farmers and processors around the country are using the

813
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 1: latest practices and innovations to provide the nutrient dense dairy

814
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 1: products we love with less of an impact. Visit usdairy

815
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: dot com slash sustainability to learn more.

816
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 3: Hi, I'm David Eagleman from the podcast Inner Cosmos, which

817
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 3: hit the number one science podcast in America. I'm a

818
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 3: neuroscientists at Stanford and I've spent my career exploring the

819
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 3: three pound universe.

820
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 1: In our heads.

821
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 3: We're looking at a whole new series of episodes this

822
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 3: season to understand why and how our lives look the

823
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: way they do. Why does your memory drift so much?

824
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 3: Why is it so hard to keep a secret, When

825
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 3: should you not trust your intuition? Why do brains so

826
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 3: easily fall for magic tricks? And why do they love

827
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 3: conspiracy theories? I'm hitting these questions and hundreds more because

828
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,720
Speaker 3: the more we know about what's running under the hood,

829
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:41,720
Speaker 3: the better we can steer our lives. Join me weekly

830
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 3: to explore the relationship between your brain and your life

831
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 3: by digging into unexpected questions. Listen to Inner Cosmos with

832
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 3: David Eagleman on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

833
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:54,919
Speaker 3: you get your podcasts.

834
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 5: Parents, are you looking for a screen free, engaging way

835
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 5: to teach your kids the Bible, one that's easy to

836
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 5: understand and enjoyable for multiple ages kids, Bible Stories podcast

837
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 5: is here to help. I created this for my own children,

838
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 5: and it's now a favorite among thousands of families. Kids

839
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 5: love the vivid imagery, scriptures, and sound effects, while parents

840
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 5: appreciate the apply section for meaningful conversations. We have hundreds

841
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 5: and hundreds of beautiful episodes that bring the Bible to

842
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 5: life when you simply press play. It's a sound and

843
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 5: practical resource that walks alongside you as you teach your kids.

844
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 5: We want kids to see how incredible God's word is

845
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 5: in an engaging and memorable way with Kids' Bible Stories podcast.

846
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 5: Listen to Kids Bible Stories podcast on the iHeartRadio app,

847
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 5: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

848
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 9: We think of Franklin as the doddling dude flying a

849
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 9: kite and no rain, but those experiments are the most

850
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 9: important scientific discoveries of the time.

851
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 4: I'm having right with.

852
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,240
Speaker 10: Last season, we tackled the engine nuity of Elon Musk

853
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 10: with biographer Walter Isaacson. This time we're diving into the

854
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 10: story of Benjamin Franklin, another genius who's desperate to be

855
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 10: dusted off from history.

856
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 9: His media empire makes him the most successful self made

857
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,720
Speaker 9: business person in America. I mean, he was never early

858
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 9: to bed, an early to rise type person. He's enormously famous.

859
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 9: Women shut wearing their hair in what was called the

860
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 9: coiffor a la Franklin.

861
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:28,919
Speaker 10: And who's more relevant now than ever.

862
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 9: The only other person who could have possibly been the

863
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 9: first president would have been Benjamin Franklin, but he's too

864
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 9: old and wants Washington to do it.

865
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 10: Listen to On Benjamin Franklin with Walter Isaacson on the

866
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 10: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

867
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 4: So we've talked about how there is a lot of

868
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:02,320
Speaker 4: asteroid activity, that there's a lot of randomness and chaos

869
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 4: to the movement of asteroids, like from say like the

870
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 4: asteroid belt to falling into the Sun. So it seems

871
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 4: like there's so much randomness it would be like really

872
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 4: hard to predict if one of these guys would come

873
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 4: and hit us.

874
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 1: It does seem like a lot of the process is random, right,

875
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: Like what makes an asteroid hit the Earth or not

876
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 1: hit the Earth. It does seem like it just needs

877
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 1: to get tugged the right way gravitationally and then end

878
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: up on a path. You know. For those of you

879
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 1: out there who are more anxious, NASA is doing their best.

880
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 1: They have a bunch of telescopes now tracking these things,

881
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: and they think they know where all of the big

882
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: asteroids are, the ones that might do any damage to

883
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 1: the Earth. They can't find all the asteroids because they

884
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 1: get to be pretty small, but the bigger ones and

885
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: especially the shinier ones, they've had a lot of opportunities

886
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 1: to see these things because asteroid belt is pretty close,

887
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 1: so we get lots of chances. The things that are

888
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: harder to predict are the things that come from further

889
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: out in our own solar system. These seem a little

890
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 1: bit more random and harder to anticipate because they're on

891
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 1: long timescales, and those are things like comets. So outpast

892
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: the asteroid belt, this is something called the Kuiper Belt.

893
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: This out past Neptune. It's like thirty Au out there,

894
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 1: and instead of just being rock, these things are icy

895
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: rocks out past the snow line, and so it's cold

896
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 1: enough for vapor to coalesce into ice. These chunky ice

897
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: balls can also get disrupted and then fall towards the

898
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 1: inner Solar system, and that's what we typically call a

899
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 1: comet that have a tail, because this ice is getting

900
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,320
Speaker 1: boiled off as they get closer and closer to the Sun.

901
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 1: And the Kuiper Belt is responsible for what we call

902
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: short period comets, ones that loop around every two hundred

903
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: years or so. That doesn't seem very short, right. The

904
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: problem though, is that if it only comes every two

905
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: hundred years, and we've only had like telescope technology for

906
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 1: a few hundred years, and we don't get very many

907
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 1: chances to see these things and to like understand their

908
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: orbit and predict very well whether they're going to hit

909
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: the Earth.

910
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 4: How much lead time would we have, like from first

911
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 4: spotting a comet to it make contact with Earth, Like

912
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 4: how fast could it move from when we could first

913
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,439
Speaker 4: feasibly see it to when it would hit us.

914
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: It's a great question, and we have an answer to

915
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 1: that because it's happened right Comet Shoemaker Levy, which hit

916
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 1: Jupiter in the nineties. We knew that was going to

917
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: hit but only a few months in advance, because it

918
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 1: comes from pretty far out in the Solar System where

919
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 1: it's hard to track, and then as it comes in

920
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 1: people can calculate its trajectory and see where it's going

921
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 1: to loop around this time. And that's how we knew

922
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: it was going to hit Jupiter. And so some of

923
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: these things can come sort of out of the darkness

924
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 1: and surprise us. The scary thing is that there are

925
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 1: also long period comets, these things from the Ort cloud,

926
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: and there might be like trillions of things out there

927
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,760
Speaker 1: much much further out, very loosely held by the Sun's gravity,

928
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: and these things can give comets that have really long

929
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: periods five hundred years, a thousand years, maybe even longer,

930
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 1: you know, looping through our solar system once every million years,

931
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 1: And so this is another source of potential killers. And

932
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,240
Speaker 1: one issue is that because they come from so far out,

933
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 1: when they come in, they're going to be moving very

934
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:10,040
Speaker 1: very fast, which makes them hard to predict and also

935
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 1: very very dangerous. So comets are harder to predict than

936
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: asteroids and also faster moving, so they're really something to

937
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: be more worried about than asteroids.

938
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 4: Well I hate that, so thank you for that, So

939
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 4: ignoring that kind of mortal peril. Are we able to

940
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 4: predict asteroids better than we can predict comets? Like, is

941
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 4: there some science to understanding when asteroids would hit us?

942
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 1: There is some science there, but we're not great at

943
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: predicting asteroids more than like a couple hundred years out.

944
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,919
Speaker 1: The more measurements you have of an object, the better

945
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 1: you can predict its trajectory. If you've seen an asteroid

946
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 1: one hundred times or a thousand times, then you have

947
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:54,919
Speaker 1: a good sense of exactly what direction it's going in

948
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 1: and what its velocity is, and you can predict pretty

949
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 1: well where it's going to go In the end, it

950
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 1: always becomes chaotic because there's so many things in the

951
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: Solar System that can tug on it. It makes it hard

952
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 1: to predict. Commets are harder if you don't have much data,

953
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: if you've only seen it once, or if you've never

954
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 1: seen it before, or it's just entering the Solar system,

955
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: and you know, the things that trigger asteroids or comets

956
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 1: to fall into the Earth are these gravitational tugs. Right

957
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 1: the Solar system, like left to itself, is pretty stable.

958
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: There is some gravitational chaos internally, but something that we

959
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,240
Speaker 1: need to think about are effects from other Solar systems.

960
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 1: You know, the Sun is moving through the galaxy and

961
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 1: right now it's pretty far from other stars, but as

962
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: time goes on, it gets closer to other stars and

963
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 1: further from other stars. It's sort of like swimming through

964
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 1: an ocean of the galaxy. And if you have these

965
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:46,919
Speaker 1: things out there in the or cloud that are sort

966
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:49,960
Speaker 1: of like very tenuously held by the Sun, then a

967
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 1: little tug from something else out there might not get

968
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 1: out of the stable orbit it's been in for billions

969
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 1: of years and send it rocketing towards the inner Solar System.

970
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 4: We do have to predict things that's not always completely accurate,

971
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 4: but it's based on like probabilities. So like if you

972
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 4: have a coin and you're flipping it, you can't really

973
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 4: with complete accuracy predict whether it's going to be heads

974
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 4: or tails, but you have an idea of if you

975
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,760
Speaker 4: flip it a bunch of times that you know roughly

976
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 4: fifty percent of the time it should be heads and

977
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 4: fifty percent of the time it should be tails. So

978
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 4: do we have a similar thing when it comes to asteroids,

979
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 4: Like maybe we can't precisely predict when an asteroid would

980
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 4: hit us, but we have an idea of the rough

981
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:40,760
Speaker 4: probability of asteroid hitting us over the history of our planet.

982
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 1: We can look back into our history and try to

983
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: see if there are patterns there, to see if there

984
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:47,879
Speaker 1: is a periodicity. But before we do that, it's fun

985
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 1: to think about, like what might be causing that periodicity,

986
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 1: Like are there even conceivably theories that might generate that

987
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:58,240
Speaker 1: kind of pattern, Because the pattern means that there's something

988
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: underlying happening. There's some like very slow process which is

989
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 1: grinding forward, which is changing the nature of the environment

990
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: in a way that's predictable, right, that's periodic the way

991
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:11,359
Speaker 1: like the seasons are periodic. Because of the way the

992
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 1: Earth goes around the Sun, people have looked for these

993
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 1: kinds of things in our galaxy, like periodic events that

994
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:20,760
Speaker 1: happen over tens of millions of years that might trigger

995
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 1: asteroids and comets to hit the Earth on some sort

996
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 1: of timescale. And there's a couple of candidates. One is

997
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: sort of plausible, and the other one is kind of

998
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 1: crazy and dramatic. The one that's sort of plausible is

999
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: that the Sun does have a sort of thirty million

1000
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 1: year cycle in the galaxy. So the Sun is going

1001
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 1: around the center of the galaxy, and it takes a

1002
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 1: couple hundred million years to orbit the center of the galaxy.

1003
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 1: That's like one galactic year. But the Sun is also

1004
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 1: wiggling sort of up and down through the galactic plane.

1005
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 1: So if you imagine the Sun like going around the

1006
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 1: center of the galaxy, it is also going up and

1007
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 1: down above and below the galactic plane as it does that,

1008
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 1: and that happens about every thirty million years. We pass

1009
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 1: through this sort of plane at the center of the

1010
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 1: galaxy and then go below it and then come back

1011
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 1: up thirty million years later.

1012
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 4: So, like I've always kind of thought of the Sun

1013
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 4: as this pretty stable, massive orb but now I'm thinking

1014
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 4: of it like this rubber ducky that is like circling

1015
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 4: the drain of the bathtub and kind of bobbing under

1016
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 4: the water and over the water exactly.

1017
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 1: And as it moves through the galaxy, its environment changes,

1018
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 1: we get further and closer to other stars. The center

1019
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: of the galaxy. The galactic plane is definitely the densest

1020
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 1: part of the galaxy, and so it's not inconceivable that

1021
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 1: that kind of process might trigger comets or Kuyper Belt

1022
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: objects out of their otherwise stable orbit, give it just

1023
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: the right kind of tug that might cause them to

1024
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 1: fall towards the center of the Solar system. So that's

1025
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,360
Speaker 1: the more plausible theory. Then there's a theory that was

1026
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: spread in a popular book recently about whether dark matter

1027
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,839
Speaker 1: killed the dinosaurs. This is a book written by a

1028
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:02,359
Speaker 1: couple theorists that Harvard, and they suggest that dark matter,

1029
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:05,319
Speaker 1: which is this invisible matter that we know is out there,

1030
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 1: but we don't really understand very much. That we know

1031
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 1: that there's much more of it than there is normal matter,

1032
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:12,959
Speaker 1: and we think that it's shaped sort of the whole

1033
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 1: structure of the galaxy. They imagine that dark matter might

1034
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 1: coalesce into sort of like a disk.

1035
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 4: Like a dark Frisbee.

1036
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, like a big dark Frisbee. I mean when the

1037
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 1: Sun passes through this dark matter disc that maybe it's

1038
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,360
Speaker 1: the dark matter that's tugging on the things in the

1039
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 1: outer Solar System and then knocking them in towards our

1040
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 1: safe little garden.

1041
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:34,400
Speaker 4: Is there any evidence for this?

1042
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 1: So, is there any evidence for this? You know, this

1043
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:40,720
Speaker 1: is just a fun speculative theory. These two Harvard theorists

1044
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:42,919
Speaker 1: came up with a theory of dark matter that would

1045
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 1: generate this kind of disk, and then they went hunting

1046
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: to see if there was evidence in the history on

1047
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 1: our planet for some sort of periodicity, So that would

1048
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 1: be like an explanation for that. We don't have any

1049
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:57,240
Speaker 1: direct evidence of the dark matter frisbee existing at all.

1050
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 1: It's just like another idea that might generate a sort

1051
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 1: of periodic tug on the Solar System that would create it.

1052
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:08,240
Speaker 1: If indeed there is any periodicity in the asteroid impacts

1053
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:08,760
Speaker 1: on Earth.

1054
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 4: It sounds like a very convenient scapegoat to me. So

1055
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:15,959
Speaker 4: like if I you know, knock over a vase. I'm like, oh, well, hey,

1056
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 4: it's that dark matter frisbee, you know how it is exactly.

1057
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 1: And so now I think it's time to answer your

1058
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 1: question from a few minutes ago, which is is there

1059
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 1: actually any evidence can we look back on the history

1060
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 1: on Earth and see a pattern of strikes, because you know,

1061
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:32,280
Speaker 1: one good way to predict the feature is of course

1062
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: to look at the past and to see if this

1063
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 1: has happened at regular intervals in the past. And this

1064
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 1: is challenging, right because people weren't around, We've not been

1065
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,799
Speaker 1: doing astronomy for like hundreds of millions of years to

1066
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:44,839
Speaker 1: take this kind of data. But there's sort of two

1067
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 1: categories of evidence that people have looked at to see

1068
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: if there are patterns. One is biological and the other

1069
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 1: is geological. So first people look at like the history

1070
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 1: of life on Earth and they look at the fossil

1071
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 1: record for extinctions, and there are a lot of them.

1072
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: You know, if you look back in the history of

1073
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 1: life on Earth is many times when you've had massive

1074
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 1: dieots and big decreases in the diversity of life on Earth.

1075
00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you have these like bottleneck events you can

1076
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 4: look at, you know, these kind of genetic locuses, like

1077
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 4: not just in terms of you know, you'll have a

1078
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 4: massive dump of fossils that you can look at and

1079
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 4: that are kind of layered, and so you can see

1080
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 4: like where you get these basically evidence of all these

1081
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 4: animals dying, you have interesting sort of genetic bottleneck where

1082
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 4: you can see evidence of mass die offs. I think

1083
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 4: we have this sort of nice notion that these mass

1084
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:44,839
Speaker 4: extinctions don't really happen because we have not really been

1085
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 4: direct witnesses to a mass extinction in our human species lifespan.

1086
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 4: But yeah, they do happen with you know, some regularity,

1087
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 4: not too often, but it's something that is hard to

1088
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 4: think of happening to us because you know, we like

1089
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:03,880
Speaker 4: very much being alive on the planet. But yes, it

1090
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 4: does happen.

1091
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 1: Exactly, and sometimes these processes only happen in deep time, right,

1092
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:10,799
Speaker 1: there's not things that we witness day to day or

1093
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 1: year to year. But they still are a part of

1094
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 1: the larger cycle of life on Earth. We just might

1095
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 1: not have been paying attention long enough to notice. And so,

1096
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: you know, sixty five million years ago there was a

1097
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:23,400
Speaker 1: big die off, like thirty percent of the species two

1098
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty million years ago there was a huge

1099
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 1: die off and the boundary between the Permian and Triassic

1100
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 1: period that I think people still don't even really understand.

1101
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:36,719
Speaker 1: Something like fifty percent of species on Earth died out.

1102
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 1: And if you look at like overtime when have species

1103
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,840
Speaker 1: died out, you do see these spikes and you wonder like, hmmm,

1104
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 1: is there a pattern there? So people have done a

1105
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 1: statistical analysis to see like, can you fit this to

1106
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 1: a periodic function? Is there like a gap between these

1107
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 1: peaks that's pretty regular or not? And the way to

1108
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 1: do this mathematically is something called a Furreer analysis. For

1109
00:56:57,719 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 1: those you like signal processing nerds out there, it's basically

1110
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 1: like taking a sound and decomposing it into frequencies. You

1111
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 1: listen to Bob Dylan, for example, and you can lower

1112
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,319
Speaker 1: the base, or you can raise the trouble, or you know,

1113
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 1: you can change the frequencies. That's because all sound is

1114
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 1: actually build up of a bunch of different frequencies, and

1115
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 1: you can decompose sound into those frequencies and say Bob

1116
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 1: Dylan is more base than Lady Gaga or whatever. And

1117
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: so in the same way, you can take any distribution

1118
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 1: and you can break it down into basically sine waves

1119
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: and say, like what frequencies are more common in this distribution.

1120
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 1: And when you do that and you look at the

1121
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 1: pattern of die offs biologically, you don't see much evidence there.

1122
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 1: It's like maybe some weak evidence for periodic dieoffs every

1123
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 1: sixty million years or every one hundred and forty million years. Weirdly,

1124
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 1: you don't see something every thirty million years, like this

1125
00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 1: cycle that we talked about where the Sun goes in

1126
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,920
Speaker 1: and out of the galactic plane that happens every thirty

1127
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 1: million years, but we don't see a die off every

1128
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: thirty million years. It doesn't look like the life on

1129
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: Earth has been wiped out by an asteroid impact every

1130
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 1: thirty million years.

1131
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 4: Right, So it doesn't seem like it's on an exact schedule,

1132
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 4: But it seems like there's also the chance that, like

1133
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 4: it wouldn't happen every thirty million years, but you know,

1134
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 4: the chance of it happening every thirty million years would

1135
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 4: slightly increase, but you would maybe skip a bunch of

1136
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 4: potential die offs because just by increasing the chance of

1137
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 4: something doesn't guarantee that it's going to happen, which seems

1138
00:58:27,240 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 4: like a really difficult analysis to make because we don't have,

1139
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 4: you know, that much time to work with, because like

1140
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 4: the Earth is not like the oldest thing in the universe.

1141
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and our understanding the fossil record and our ability

1142
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 1: to analyze this thing doesn't really go much further back

1143
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 1: than like five or six hundred million years after like

1144
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 1: the Cambrian explosion and that kind of stuff. But you're right,

1145
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 1: it could be sort of like every thirty million years

1146
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: we play Russian roulette and sometimes we win and sometimes

1147
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 1: we don't win. But then you would see that appearing, right,

1148
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 1: even if it didn't happen every time, you would see

1149
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 1: it appearing at that periodicity. It wouldn't have to happen

1150
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: every time for this analysis to reveal it. But you're right, also,

1151
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 1: this is limited, like we don't have that many examples,

1152
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 1: and so it could be that it's there, we just

1153
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,560
Speaker 1: haven't seen enough examples for it to sort of rise

1154
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 1: out of the data statistically. But currently when we look

1155
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 1: at the data, we can't say that there's statistical evidence

1156
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 1: for any sort of periodicity in the die off patterns

1157
00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 1: of life on Earth.

1158
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 4: There's too much noise and there's not really much evidence

1159
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 4: of a signal and maybe if we had many billions

1160
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 4: of years to work with, we could have better data,

1161
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 4: but we don't have that, And sadly, crocodiles and cel

1162
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 4: accounts and some of these really old species are not

1163
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 4: really good at data collections.

1164
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: So exactly, the fascinating thing is that all of these events,

1165
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,920
Speaker 1: somebody was there, you know, some life was there, some

1166
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 1: eyeball was around seeing these things happen. Just like all

1167
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 1: of human history, though most of it's forgotten, all of

1168
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 1: it was witnessed, right There was somebody who knew exactly

1169
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 1: what happened to humans twenty thousand years ago. It's just

1170
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 1: all those people are dead and they didn't write it down,

1171
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 1: and so all that information is now lost. That's so frustrating.

1172
01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 1: Sometimes some scientists have turned to the interior of the

1173
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 1: Earth to try to understand if there's evidence in the

1174
01:00:13,480 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 1: geologic record for these impacts, not just like did enough

1175
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 1: species die off, because you know, maybe the asteroid hit

1176
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 1: but it just didn't cause a big die off. So

1177
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 1: instead they've looked at like the Earth itself to see

1178
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 1: if there's evidence for these impacts. And these guys were

1179
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,840
Speaker 1: interested not just in asteroid impacts but also in slow

1180
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 1: geologic events that could have caused die offs from within

1181
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 1: the Earth. Like what if there's some crazy process inside

1182
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 1: the Earth that causes super volcanoes every fifty million years

1183
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 1: that causes a die off or some other very like

1184
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:48,560
Speaker 1: slow process that bubbles up every x million years and

1185
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:50,960
Speaker 1: we just haven't understood it yet. You know, we've definitely

1186
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 1: discovered these kinds of things in geology many times, so

1187
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 1: it's fun to sort of imagine even deeper time processes.

1188
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 1: So these guys look not just at evidence for asteroid collisions,

1189
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 1: but also like just large marine extinctions or changes in

1190
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: the seafloor or big volcanic events. And they did the

1191
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:10,600
Speaker 1: same thing. They did a four y analysis to look

1192
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 1: for a repeating signal to see like is there a

1193
01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 1: period to sort of large geologic events on the surface

1194
01:01:17,080 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 1: of the Earth. And these guys in their paper, they

1195
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 1: actually claim to discover a signal every twenty eight million years.

1196
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 1: They said that there's strong statistical evidence for something bad

1197
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:33,200
Speaker 1: happening every twenty eight million years. But I actually have

1198
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:35,600
Speaker 1: to take issue with this paper. I read this paper

1199
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 1: and I think that they've done these statistical analysis wrong.

1200
01:01:38,720 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 4: Oh boy, some drama getting ready for some statistical analysis drama.

1201
01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 4: All right, let's go, let's take them down.

1202
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 1: What they did is they looked for the most common

1203
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 1: recurrence and they found something abound twenty eight million years.

1204
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:52,720
Speaker 1: But you know, every time you're going to look at

1205
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 1: your data, you're going to find something to be the

1206
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 1: most common. The question is like, how likely is it

1207
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 1: to be that significant? Is it really a big peak

1208
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 1: or is it just sort of like the biggest peak

1209
01:02:02,040 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 1: among a bunch of random noise. And so they tried

1210
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 1: to calculate this. They try to say, like, how likely

1211
01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 1: is there to see this big peak at twenty eight

1212
01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 1: million years? Is this likely to just be noise or

1213
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 1: is this something real? So they ran a bunch of

1214
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 1: statistical tests to see how likely is it to see

1215
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 1: something at twenty eight million years, and they found those

1216
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 1: very unlikely to see this kind of peak, And from

1217
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:23,919
Speaker 1: that they conclude, oh, well, this must be real because

1218
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 1: it's very unlikely to generate this from just random noise.

1219
01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:30,400
Speaker 1: Problem with this method of statistical analysis is that they're

1220
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,440
Speaker 1: only calculating the probability of seeing a peak from random

1221
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 1: events at twenty eight million years, whereas these random events

1222
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 1: also could have generated peaks at thirty million years in

1223
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:41,240
Speaker 1: fifteen million years, and if they'd seen that in their data,

1224
01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 1: they would have happily written a Nature paper about that

1225
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:46,240
Speaker 1: as well. So I think they sort of overstate the

1226
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:49,920
Speaker 1: case that this thing rises above the random noise. And

1227
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:53,400
Speaker 1: in my view, there's no real statistical evidence here for

1228
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:56,920
Speaker 1: the geologic record having any sort of period of major events.

1229
01:02:57,200 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 4: So speaking purely for a friend who you may go

1230
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:06,439
Speaker 4: a little cross eide when discussing statistics. So essentially they're

1231
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 4: basically kind of pruning data points that would make this

1232
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:15,320
Speaker 4: finding more likely, whereas if they included in their analysis

1233
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 4: all the data points, you would get a lot more

1234
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 4: evidence of noise.

1235
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like saying, what's the chance of getting a

1236
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 1: random peak at this number? It's pretty small. Well, what's

1237
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 1: the chance of getting a random peak at any number.

1238
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:30,000
Speaker 1: It's going to be much much bigger. And that's the

1239
01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 1: number they really need to be accounting for, because they

1240
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 1: would have accepted a peak basically any number right now.

1241
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:38,000
Speaker 1: It is interesting that the peak they get is just

1242
01:03:38,080 --> 01:03:41,600
Speaker 1: about at thirty million years. That is suggestive because we

1243
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 1: know there is this process where the Sun goes in

1244
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,440
Speaker 1: and out of the galactic plane every thirty one million years,

1245
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,400
Speaker 1: though they measure theirs to be twenty eight million years.

1246
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 1: And that might not seem like a big difference to you,

1247
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 1: but three million years is not a short amount of time.

1248
01:03:56,120 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, sounds circumstantial to me. Can you imagine if literature

1249
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,120
Speaker 4: review was like a courtroom that you actually got to

1250
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 4: kind of be a big fancy city lawyer in court

1251
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 4: arguing for against statistical analysis. I think that would make

1252
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 4: science a lot more entertaining.

1253
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,120
Speaker 1: It would probably make it for a lot more deep

1254
01:04:16,160 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 1: grudges also, And you know, for answering our question about

1255
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: whether there's a pattern to asteroid impacts on Earth, remember

1256
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:26,200
Speaker 1: that this paper is thinking about all geological events, super

1257
01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:28,840
Speaker 1: volcanoes and all sorts of other stuff. And if you

1258
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 1: look at most of these events the boundaries between geological

1259
01:04:32,000 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 1: time scales. For example, only the event at sixty five

1260
01:04:35,080 --> 01:04:39,440
Speaker 1: million years ago in the geological record shows a significant impact.

1261
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 1: You know, we can see like the ash and the

1262
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 1: dust from that impact in the record. If you dig

1263
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 1: down into the earth you can find that and see

1264
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 1: the impact. The other transition periods and the die offs

1265
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:53,160
Speaker 1: that don't seem to align with any asteroid impact. There's

1266
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 1: no like event, we can find no evidence of ash

1267
01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 1: and dust, so it seems pretty loose. As far as

1268
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 1: we can tell right now, there is no evidence of

1269
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 1: periodic asteroid impact on Earth, which is, you know, good

1270
01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:08,000
Speaker 1: news because it means that another one might not be coming.

1271
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:10,760
Speaker 1: But it's bad news because it means they might just

1272
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 1: be unpredictable.

1273
01:05:12,080 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 4: I mean, it's also bad news if I really want

1274
01:05:14,600 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 4: to cancel my dentist appointment in the next million years

1275
01:05:19,320 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 4: or so, you know. I think another thing is that

1276
01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 4: when the big one hit Earth and you know, killed

1277
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 4: off the dinosaurs, of course a little more complicated than that.

1278
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 4: I mean, there were also other things happening at the time,

1279
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:37,600
Speaker 4: other geological activity that was contributing to the extinction. So

1280
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:40,440
Speaker 4: it wasn't just the asteroid. They also think that there

1281
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 4: was volcanic activity that had nothing to do with the

1282
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 4: asteroid that was causing an impact on the environment. And

1283
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 4: so it was just this kind of like poorly timed

1284
01:05:52,640 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 4: asteroid that kind of helped put a nail in the

1285
01:05:55,960 --> 01:06:02,440
Speaker 4: coffin of an already sort of precarious situation for the dinosaurs.

1286
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:05,120
Speaker 4: And so yeah, I think it seems like it'd be

1287
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 4: a little too tidy in terms of finding. You know

1288
01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:12,760
Speaker 4: that every thirty million years we get hit by an

1289
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:15,920
Speaker 4: asteroid and all the animals, you know, go oh no,

1290
01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 4: except for a lucky few of them that end up surviving.

1291
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:22,800
Speaker 4: But it does seem like the actual picture of it

1292
01:06:22,800 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 4: would be a lot messier, have to do with a

1293
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:30,080
Speaker 4: lot more kind of just a confluence of environmental factors,

1294
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 4: both on Earth and maybe you know, outside of Earth,

1295
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:37,040
Speaker 4: rather than just one kind of convenient every thirty million

1296
01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 4: years asteroids and backtown.

1297
01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 1: You sound like the asteroids defense lawyer saying, hey, look,

1298
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:43,960
Speaker 1: it wasn't my client. Even if they were there, there's

1299
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 1: other stuff going on.

1300
01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 4: I may be a simple country lawyer, but the evidence

1301
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 4: that my asteroid was anywhere near those dinosaurs is purely circumstantial.

1302
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:56,479
Speaker 1: I'm going to call in Daniel Whitson to argue about

1303
01:06:56,480 --> 01:07:00,320
Speaker 1: the statistical analysis of this paper. All right, well, I

1304
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 1: think you can rest easy then, knowing that a big

1305
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:07,720
Speaker 1: asteroid may not necessarily be on way to pulverize all

1306
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 1: of us.

1307
01:07:08,320 --> 01:07:12,760
Speaker 4: That is the most like lackluster optimistic thing I've ever heard.

1308
01:07:12,800 --> 01:07:15,560
Speaker 4: It's like you can rest easy knowing that you may

1309
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 4: not die a random and horrible death along with everyone

1310
01:07:19,280 --> 01:07:22,560
Speaker 4: else on Earth. But hey, you know glass half fault.

1311
01:07:22,680 --> 01:07:25,040
Speaker 1: You may not die a predictable periodic death, but you

1312
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 1: may actually dye a random, horrible death because comets and

1313
01:07:29,000 --> 01:07:33,080
Speaker 1: asteroids are unpredictable, and especially comets are really a source

1314
01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:36,200
Speaker 1: of danger. And we need to keep funding those telescopes

1315
01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:38,080
Speaker 1: to look out there, and we need to keep developing

1316
01:07:38,080 --> 01:07:41,640
Speaker 1: these technologies to divert these objects if they do come

1317
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:43,600
Speaker 1: towards our wonderful planet.

1318
01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 4: Oh, I see, this is why you're blaming the asteroids.

1319
01:07:46,880 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 4: This is a shakedown for funding for science.

1320
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:51,800
Speaker 1: Just trying to save the planet. I mean, just a

1321
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 1: little old thing like saving the planet.

1322
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 4: How convenient.

1323
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 1: All right, Well, thank you Katie very much for joining

1324
01:07:58,040 --> 01:08:01,720
Speaker 1: us on this optimistic view of our situation in the

1325
01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:05,960
Speaker 1: Solar System and offering your full through defense of asteroids.

1326
01:08:06,280 --> 01:08:09,520
Speaker 1: And thanks everybody for listening to another deep dive into

1327
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:12,800
Speaker 1: the deep history of life on Earth. Thanks for joining us.

1328
01:08:12,840 --> 01:08:22,960
Speaker 1: Tune in next time, Thanks for listening, and remember that

1329
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:25,840
Speaker 1: Daniel and Jorge Explain the Universe is a production of

1330
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 1: iHeart Radio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,

1331
01:08:31,360 --> 01:08:43,919
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

1332
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:47,320
Speaker 1: When you pop a piece of cheese into your mouth,

1333
01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:50,640
Speaker 1: you're probably not thinking about the environmental impact. But the

1334
01:08:50,680 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 1: people in the dairy industry are. That's why they're working

1335
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Speaker 1: hard every day to find new ways to reduce waste,

1336
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Speaker 1: conserve natural resources, and drive down greenhouse gas emissions. House

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Speaker 1: US dairy tackling greenhouse gases. Many farms use anaerobic digestors

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1339
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Speaker 1: can power farms, towns, and electric cars. Visit you as

1340
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Speaker 1: dairy dot COM's Last Sustainability to learn more.

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Speaker 3: Hi, I'm David Eagleman from the podcast Inner Cosmos, which

1342
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 3: recently hit the number one science podcast in America. I'man

1343
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:26,360
Speaker 3: neuroscientists at Stanford and I've spent my career exploring the

1344
01:09:26,479 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 3: three pound universe in our heads.

1345
01:09:28,760 --> 01:09:31,799
Speaker 4: Join me weekly to explore the relationship.

1346
01:09:31,160 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 3: Between your brain and your life, because the more we

1347
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:36,680
Speaker 3: know about what's running under the hood, that.

1348
01:09:36,760 --> 01:09:38,520
Speaker 4: Or we can steer our lives.

1349
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 3: Listen to Inner Cosmos with David Eagleman on the iHeartRadio app,

1350
01:09:42,240 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 3: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1351
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:49,120
Speaker 5: Parents looking for a screen free, fun and engaging way

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Speaker 5: to teach your kids the Bible. As a mom, I

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Speaker 5: was looking for the same thing, so I created Kids'

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Speaker 5: Bible Stories podcast. Thousands of families are raving about it,

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Speaker 5: and an apply section at the end to spark meaningful conversations,

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Speaker 5: it's a hit with both kids and parents. Listen to

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Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts.