1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris 2 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by mister bau mcbrair. Just 3 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: one more tournament to go before the Masters. We're going 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: to give you a preview of the Valero Texas Open 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: and let you know who we're betting and why. We'll 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: get to that in a moment, but let's start with 7 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: a very quick recap of last week's Houston Open. Gary 8 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: Woodland wins the Houston Open in a runaway. Woodland finished 9 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: twenty one under par, five shots better than runner up 10 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: Nikolai Hoyguard. Woodland had rounds of sixty four, sixty three, 11 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: sixty five and sixty seven to go wire to wire. 12 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: Only Hoyguard was within striking distance of Woodland going into 13 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: the final round, but Hoyguard got off to a sluggish 14 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: start on Sunday, while Woodland got hot on the front nine, 15 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,959 Speaker 1: making four birdies over a five hole stretch that put 16 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: the tournament out of reach. Woodland did not make any 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,279 Speaker 1: birdies on the back nine, but still one comfortably. And 18 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: what a story this was. Bo Woodland won the US 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: Open at Pebble Beach back in twenty nineteen, a few 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: years later, he had fallen off the map, and in 21 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: May of twenty twenty three, it was discovered that Woodland 22 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: had a lesion on his brain. A few months later, 23 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 1: he had brain surgery to remove it. The legion had 24 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: been growing on the part of the brain that controls 25 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: fear and anxiety, so shortly before the diagnosis, Woodland was 26 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 1: having panic attacks. The surgeons could only remove part of 27 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: the legion, so Woodland says he still has PTSD. Give 28 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: a very emotional interview to the Golf Channel a couple 29 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: of weeks ago revealing what he's been going through. So 30 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: the win in Houston was widely celebrated by fans and 31 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: fellow players. Woodland is truly one of the good guys 32 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: on the PGA Tour and this was a great comeback story. 33 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: But what do you think of Gary Woodland's victory? 34 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 2: I was standing ovation. I love Gary Woodland. He's always 35 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: been one of my favorite just dudes on tour that 36 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: you can't help but root for. We mentioned him on 37 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 2: the show. It was more of like a compelling long 38 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 2: shot with good course history. He was a prior winner 39 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 2: at the Houston Open, defending champ. Minwooley was in the 40 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 2: final group with him and Hoyguard walking down eighteenth fairway 41 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: where they held back and they joined the ovation that 42 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 2: he received. It was just really cool to see that 43 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: good guy play that well. And honestly, I think going 44 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 2: back to the golf is, if Hoyguard had started off better, 45 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 2: Woodland probably would have shot sixty four or sixty five 46 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 2: in that final round anyway, because he was so lights 47 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: out sixty four, sixty three, sixty five and the sixty 48 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 2: seven could have been a lot lower. But he wasn't 49 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 2: getting pushed. So the entire back nineties, hitting irons off 50 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 2: the tee, putting the ball in play, making parr move on, 51 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,839 Speaker 2: which is all he had to do to win comfortably, 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 2: and so it was he could have gone even lower 53 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 2: than twenty one under par, which is mind blowing because 54 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 2: that's not an easy golf course. Everybody else kind of 55 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 2: fell by the wayside. Eventually he put together four great 56 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 2: rounds and dominated the tournament. So hats off to Gary Woodland, 57 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 2: great guy, great golfer, finally back in the Winter circle 58 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 2: after six seven years. It's it's so awesome. It's just 59 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 2: an awesome story of sporting. I mean, it's just that's 60 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 2: why we watch sports in general, and us as golf 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: fans and in inquiring minds of golf everything, we want 62 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 2: to see those guys win more often. So having him 63 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 2: kind of break that that decade loop of struggle is 64 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: really nice to see it, because now it's it's just 65 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: upward from there. He's forty one, which in a lot 66 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 2: of sense makes makes him kind of the elder Statesman. 67 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 2: But forty one, longest driver on tour this year, longest 68 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: hitter on tour, period, longest hitter on the on the 69 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 2: golf course last week in Houston, and he was paired 70 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: with Hoyguard. He was paired with all these guys that 71 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: are young agiles, got speed to burn one hundred ninety 72 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 2: ball speed. He's out there on Sunday lashing it out 73 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 2: there one hundred and ninety six mile an hour ball 74 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 2: speed at forty one after brain surgery. I think he's 75 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 2: just really good at the sport. And forty one does 76 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 2: not seem like an old age when you when you 77 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 2: see a guy go out there and not just match 78 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 2: the young guns, but beat them at everything they're good at. 79 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, that drive he hit on the front nine, 80 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: par five on Sunday, where he and then just immediately 81 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: picked up the tee. Oh he knew it was. 82 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 2: Just that ball was annihilated. 83 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: Yes, he put that thing into orbit. So yeah, what 84 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: a great victory. We can't even be upset that Gary 85 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: Woodland got in between us and payday bow. You know, 86 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: I mentioned Gary Woodland is a compelling long shot last week, 87 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: but didn't have the good sense to actually bet him. 88 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: But you know, you and I dad the bulls eye circled. 89 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: But just in Land one, we both had Nikolai Hooyguard. 90 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: We both had long shot Tedarshan Yellow Miraju who finished 91 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: top ten. Bo, you had Chris godd her Up and 92 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: Michael Thorbjornson who were both in the haunts before Woodland 93 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: went into overdrive. I did win one bet bo. I 94 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: had long shots knee home. Yep, it's knee home. Apparently 95 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: not nigh home. So my apologies for mispronouncing that last 96 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: week for a top twenty at plus nine eighty or 97 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: maybe it was plus eight ninety, I can't remember. It's 98 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: a good what do you think, bo? Should we be 99 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: pleased or disappointed with last week's results? 100 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 2: Yeah? I ended up making a small profit with placement bets. 101 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 2: On all of the five guys that I todded last week, 102 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 2: they were all in the top ten except for I 103 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 2: think it was Willie Ze didn't make the cut. He 104 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 2: missed the cut by one shot, and he was the 105 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,679 Speaker 2: only guy that I talked about last week that didn't 106 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: make top ten last in Houston, and the only guy 107 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 2: I didn't bet in the top ten was Gary Woodland. 108 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 2: So yeah, well, I mean it's still a good win. 109 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 2: We ended up profiting thanks to our placement bets. So 110 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 2: if you're ever wondering why we do placement bets on 111 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 2: the guys, we feel strongly about it so we don't 112 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: get skunked when Gary Woodland goes out and shoots four 113 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 2: amazing rounds on a very difficult golf course. Because that 114 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 2: sort of thing happens, you get a good, strong lean 115 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 2: on all these guys. They all finish really well. They 116 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 2: just got beat and we still end up profiting because 117 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 2: you're getting plus four fifty up to plus nine eighty 118 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 2: for a top twenty on a super long shot like Kneeholm. 119 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 2: That's that's why we do that. That's you're putting a 120 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: little bit of extra risk on the card just so 121 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 2: that you can get a little bit of a it's 122 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 2: almost hedging, but it's almost just it's just increasing a 123 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 2: little bit of risk to get a little bit of 124 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 2: a broader net into a payday. So props to Gary Woodland, 125 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:59,599 Speaker 2: Props to us for having the entire target smothered blacked 126 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 2: out except for the bulls eye. 127 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,279 Speaker 1: So up next to the Valero Texas Open. One final 128 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,799 Speaker 1: tune up before the Masters, and we're getting a pretty 129 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: good field this week, although no Scotti, Scheffler, no Rory McElroy. 130 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: The Valero Texas Open will be played once again at 131 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: the TPC San Antonio. The Oaks Course to Part seventy two, 132 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: measuring seven four hundred and thirty eight yards TPC San 133 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: Antonio a fairly long course, but accuracy out the team 134 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: might be more important than length because players can get 135 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: some pretty good role on these firm fairways and it's 136 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: critical to avoid the trees that line many of the halls. 137 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: The rough at TPC San Antonio is forgiving the trees 138 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: not so much. We're likely to get firm, fast conditions 139 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: and light of the heat wave in the Southwest earlier 140 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,239 Speaker 1: this month, that means the Bermuda greens that the Oaks 141 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: Course can be hard to hit. Precise iron play is 142 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: going to be important, but scrambling will be important too, 143 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: since it can be hard to hold these greens with 144 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: longer approaches. I like the finishing stretch at TPC San Antonio, 145 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: kind of cool. The par three sixteenth okay, it's got 146 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 1: a bunker right in the middle of the green, much 147 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: like Riviera. The seventeenth is a drivable par four that 148 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: measures three hundred and forty seven yards that adds a 149 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: little spice to the finish, and the eighteenth is a 150 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: five hundred and ninety one yard risk reward par five 151 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: with a creek in front of the green. TPC San 152 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: Antonio's design so that downhill holes usually play into the 153 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: prevailing wind and uphill holes usually played downwind. And it's 154 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: expected to be breezy in San Antonio, as it typically is, 155 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: with winds of ten to twenty miles an hour for 156 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: most of the week. Some rain in the forecast for Thursday, 157 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday that could maybe soften up the greens 158 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 1: in the course a little bit. It's gonna be hot 159 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: Thursday and Friday, temperatures in the upper eighties and cooling 160 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: off a tad on the weekend. The defending champion is 161 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: Brian Harmon, his controlled game, warked well and tough windy conditions. 162 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: Last year he was nine under par, won by three 163 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: strokes over Ryan Girard. Aksha Battia was twenty under par 164 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 1: when he won here in twenty twenty four, beating Danny 165 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: McCarthy in a playoff, though McCarthy and Akshay both finished 166 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,839 Speaker 1: nine shots clear of the rest of the field. Corey 167 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 1: Connors when the Valero textas open in twenty twenty three, 168 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 1: he was fifteen under par jj spawn won in twenty 169 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: twenty two thirteen under par. Boe Your thoughts on TPC 170 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: San Antonio. 171 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 2: There's a very differing It's a very wide polarity of 172 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 2: opinions about this event. The touts like us that tell 173 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 2: people what to analyze, who to bet on, we can't 174 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 2: stand TPC San Antonio. It is the most unremarkable, pretty 175 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 2: much the most blah vanilla golf course on the entire tour. 176 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 2: So people like us don't really see a lot of 177 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 2: value in this type of tournament. And we also don't 178 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 2: like variants. This golf course is extremely variant, just based 179 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: on wind period. You just saw the last two two 180 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 2: events in twenty twenty four, it was not windy. Winner 181 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 2: was twenty under par. Last year was windy. Winner was 182 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: nine under par and that was three clear of the 183 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 2: next best score. So you're gonna get a lot of 184 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 2: variants just based on wind speed and direction. It could 185 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 2: go anywhere from five under par to twenty five under 186 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 2: par based on wind alone. This golf course has no 187 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 2: redeeming qualities whatsoever to itself other than is the wind 188 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 2: blowing or is the wind not blowing? And yes, that 189 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 2: finishing stretch is interesting. It's fun, that's about it. Seventeen's 190 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: fun because you're gonna see some eagles and you're gonna 191 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 2: see some birdies coming down stretch. And then eighteen is 192 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,679 Speaker 2: a birdie hole, but it's five ninety one uphill, usually downwind, 193 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 2: but not always, and that creak dissects and kind of 194 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 2: creates a risk reward where it's a split fair way. 195 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: You can go left and aggressive, or you can lay 196 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 2: up short of the creek, which what ended up sinking 197 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 2: McCarthy two years ago and having us cash with Aksha 198 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 2: Batilla that week at fifty five to one. So it's 199 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 2: it's it's a fun event because from the player's perspective, 200 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: and from the broadcast perspective, it's a lot of fun. 201 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 2: Because there's so much action going on, you're gonna see 202 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 2: some pretty wild scoring differences all the way from bogie 203 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 2: to eagle based on wind. Again, if you miss the 204 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 2: fairways here, you have to worry about oak trees. It's 205 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 2: the Oaks Course, and those are the trees that are 206 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 2: not ninety percent air. I know from experience. Oak trees 207 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 2: are about ninety percent oak, and you cannot hit through them. 208 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 2: You cannot really hit around them because they're big, wide canopies. 209 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 2: And so yeah, if you're off and you're in the trees, 210 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 2: you're not gonna have a good time at the Oaks Course. 211 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 2: If you're in the fairway, it's gonna be a birdie fest. 212 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 2: So you're gonna get a cut score somewhere even to 213 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 2: two over par, but your winning score might be twenty 214 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 2: three under par. It's just it's so much variance, and 215 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 2: so from our perspective it's not that great. But from 216 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 2: the players and the broadcast perspective, they're gonna love this. 217 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 2: They're gonna eat it up. That's where I'm at with 218 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 2: this event. I'm just gonna have try to have as 219 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 2: much fun as I can, betting it with the guys 220 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 2: that come up in my model and just my gut, 221 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 2: you know that's this is the kind of event where 222 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 2: we're all kind of in the are we looking ahead? 223 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 2: That everybody I've talked to is looking ahead to next week. 224 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 2: It's it's only natural, it's inevitable that we're looking ahead 225 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: to next week at Augusta National. So sorry, TPC san Antonio, 226 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 2: I'm not that excited, But I'm also not not excited 227 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 2: because it's still action. 228 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,719 Speaker 1: Hopefully it'll be a pleasant diversion for us while we 229 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 1: bide our time waiting for the masters. Valerio Texas Open 230 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: odds in just a moment, But first, a quick word 231 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: about the convenience of Omaha Steaks. Monday night, bo, my 232 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: wife and I had no plan for dinner and options 233 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: were scant since we were overdue to make a grocery run. 234 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: Then I remembered we had a goodie box from Omaha 235 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 1: Steaks in the freezer. We grilled up some delicious burgers. 236 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 1: Dinner problem solved, and Omaha Steaks has a wide variety 237 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: of options, from hand crafted steaks to convenient comfort meals 238 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: like they're fully cooked beef, pot roast, meat lovers, lasagna, 239 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: beef shepherd's pie, and more. They also carry those mouthwatering burgers, chicken, pork, seafood, dessert, 240 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: and easy to prepare comfort food. Omaha Steaks is a 241 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 1: family owned company that gets it. With over one hundred 242 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: years of expertise, Omaha Steaks helps you get dinner done 243 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: with delicious everyday proteins your family will love. Omaha Steaks 244 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: is your weeknight win, and right now you can get 245 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: the world's best everyday protein during their Spring Savings event. 246 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: Go to Omaha Steaks dot com for an extra thirty 247 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: five dollars off when you use the promo code PROS 248 00:13:55,760 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: at checkouts. That's Omaha Steaks dot Com. Apply se site 249 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: for details. All right, let's get to the odds for 250 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:08,079 Speaker 1: the Valero Texas Open. Tommy Fleetwood has the shortest odds 251 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,959 Speaker 1: in the field at fourteen to one. Ludwig Oberg is 252 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: sixteen to one, Russell Henley and Robert McIntyre at eighteen 253 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: to one. Jordan Spieth is nineteen and a half to one. 254 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: Colin morricaw wan See with Kim are twenty to one. 255 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: Hudeki Matsuyama twenty one and a half to one, Maverick 256 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:28,359 Speaker 1: McNeely twenty three to one, Ricky Fowler and Michael Thorbjornsen 257 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: are twenty seven to one, and sepstrac is twenty nine 258 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: to one. Who do you like from this group? 259 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: Po, So let's start with Tommy Fleetwood. That's the kind 260 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 2: of the name at the top of this board, top 261 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: five in the world. Everybody wants him to win here. 262 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 2: He's rated extremely poorly in my model, and that's shocking. Right, 263 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 2: top guy on the board, I'm looking expecting him to 264 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 2: see at least in the top ten. I had to 265 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 2: roll down to forty eighth. Forty eighth in my model, 266 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 2: and that's despite him being number one in this field 267 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 2: in strokes, game ten green, number twelve on approach. Everything 268 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 2: else is red short game putting everything on this type 269 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 2: of golf course, he's not only below average, but despicably 270 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 2: bad in those categories like scrambling, birdie or better percentage. 271 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 2: Par five scoring is okay, Par four scoring is not good, 272 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 2: sand saves not good. Why has Tommy Fleetwood fallen so far? Well, 273 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 2: I don't have to worry about that. I can just 274 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 2: skip him and go to the next one. Because you 275 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 2: mentioned Ludwig Oberg not a good short game. You need 276 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 2: a good short game here. You have to be able 277 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 2: to pot on slower greens that don't respond well to 278 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 2: approach shots, but they roll slow. This is a is 279 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 2: a golf course where you have to consider green speeds 280 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 2: on approach versus how fast are they actually when you're putting. 281 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 2: Ludvig Oberg is bad on both of those of those sections, 282 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 2: so he's out. Then I have Robert McIntyre, Russell Henley, 283 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 2: Colin Moore, Kawa and Hideki Matsiama oh and Maverick Neely 284 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 2: all in that same tier, and I have them all 285 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: of those guys in my top ten. So how do 286 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 2: I boil it down? How do I separate this massive 287 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 2: group of guys who should be in contention. It's not easy. 288 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 2: I was able to not separate with my first run 289 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 2: and model the second run, I ran it with prior 290 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 2: history at this event, and that helped a little. It 291 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 2: didn't help much. It knocked a couple of guys down. 292 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 2: The one that I did figure I wanted to bet 293 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 2: on Russ Russell Henley at eighteen to one. This is 294 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 2: a Bermuda course, it's Texas champion Bermuda and that's Russell Henley. 295 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 2: The bell goes off Russell Henley. He's also really good 296 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 2: on these types of golf courses. And let me go 297 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 2: right up to the top. He's number two in my 298 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 2: model green in every single category, every single one. Russell 299 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 2: Henley is green. That's great. We love that. Hideki Matsuyama 300 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 2: number one in my model. Everything is green. Let's bet 301 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 2: on h I came out Siama, who is mispriced at 302 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: plus twenty one point fifty. That's outstanding. I love seeing 303 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,199 Speaker 2: value right at the top of the board. As for 304 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 2: the other guys, I kind of lost them in that 305 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 2: second shuffle. Colin short game, hid Deecie's there, mcmav is 306 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 2: approach hit. This is a second shot golf course, just 307 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 2: like most of them on the tour. It's like we're 308 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 2: if we're looking at all these guys of the same tier. 309 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 2: Russell Henley beats all of them on approach, Hidecki beats 310 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 2: all of them in short game. Then you have McNeely 311 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 2: who has a good short game but bad approach, so 312 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 2: he's out. And then who's the last one. Robert McIntyre 313 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 2: great on approach, not so great putting. He's a streaky putter. 314 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 2: It's so hard to see. Who am I going to 315 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 2: bet on? And I came down to Hideki and Russell, Henley. 316 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 2: I'm sticking to it. I know that all these guys 317 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 2: are worth a bet if you feel that way about them. 318 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 2: I just had to go down and even distill it 319 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 2: more than I usually do, which never happens. And apparently 320 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 2: I had time today because I did that extra filtering 321 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 2: on top of my already insane amount of filtering, and 322 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 2: so my head is spinning. Your head is probably spinning. Two, Pat, 323 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 2: how do you feel about this tire? 324 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: Yeah? I'm with you on Henley. You know, Henley is 325 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: an auto bet for me on Bermuda courses, and he's 326 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: finished top twenty and five of his six PGA Tour 327 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: events this year, and his last Valera Texas Open was 328 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four when he finished fourth. So Henley 329 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 1: straight off the tee, he ranks twelfth, and strokes gained 330 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: total fourteenth, and strokes gain putting fifteenth and scrambling or 331 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: excuse me fifth in scrambling, like he's just got the 332 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: game for this course. Green, I love Henley. This week. 333 00:18:54,280 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: I kind of came down to MacIntyre versus Matsuyama as 334 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:05,479 Speaker 1: the other guys I wanted to go for. And I 335 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: don't think McIntyre is gonna feel uncomfortable for wind blows 336 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: in San Antonio. And I don't think he's going to 337 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: be uncomfortable on like slightly slower greens than what these 338 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 1: guys have been seeing in Florida recently, since the greens 339 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: in Scotland tend to be pretty slow. So last event 340 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:26,199 Speaker 1: was the Players Championship where he finished fourth, and he 341 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 1: only has played the Valera Texas Open once before, he 342 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 1: was thirty fifth and twenty twenty two. But I do 343 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: think he could do well on this course. Yeah, Matsuyama 344 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 1: like it. It's been a mixed bag for him at 345 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 1: this tournament. He's played five straight years thirtieth and twenty 346 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: twenty one, with drew in twenty twenty two, fifteenth and 347 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,679 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, seventh, twenty twenty four, and missed the 348 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 1: cut last year. So yeah, I just I like, what's that. 349 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 2: It's just hard. It's a hard week to it is 350 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,439 Speaker 2: it is. It is a tight, tightly bunched group here. 351 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'm with you. On Fleetwood. You know, even 352 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,959 Speaker 1: though he's got three top tens in his last four starts, 353 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 1: he's only played this event twice, had a seventh and 354 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: a sixty second, and Oberg was playing really superb golf 355 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 1: when we last saw him in Florida. But you know, 356 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: he's missed the cut in two of his three previous 357 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: Valero Texas hoping starts, finished fourteenth in the other. So 358 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: I think we're off him. I'm a little intrigued by 359 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: Jordan Speith bo Like he wanted TPC San Antonio in 360 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. He was runner up here in twenty fifteen, 361 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: two other top ten finishes, and was twelve last year. 362 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: Doesn't have a top ten finish on the tour this year, 363 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: but he's finished either eleventh or twelfth in three of 364 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: his last four events. Any interest in speak or no? 365 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 2: Not at his current line, Like he gets a little 366 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 2: bit of an inflation because of name brand value, Like 367 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 2: he's he's a he's a very house he's a household 368 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 2: name on the PJ Tour, and his results don't always 369 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 2: reflect his betting line. And this is another case where 370 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: prior champion, everybody knows who he is. He's gonna be 371 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 2: shorter on the odds than somebody of equal or greater 372 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 2: value to us. So I'm off him just because his 373 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: line is too short. He's under twenty to one. That's 374 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 2: it's just too short for me. I just can't do 375 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 2: it at nineteen and a half to one if he 376 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 2: was twenty five or thirty to one. Sure, Jordan Spith 377 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 2: has good courts history, He's got a great short game, 378 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 2: one of the best sand save artists that we've ever 379 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 2: seen in the history of golf. So yeah, he should 380 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 2: do well. Here, is he good enough for me to 381 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 2: confidently bet at nineteen and a half to one, No. 382 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: I'm with you. Just not the right price on the 383 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,719 Speaker 1: Texas guy. All right, Let's look at more of the odds. 384 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,959 Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell's thirty seven to one, Jj Spahnd thirty eight 385 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: to one, Rue he SATs in a thirty nine to one. 386 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: Alex Noran is forty to one, Daniel Berger forty six 387 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: to one, Danny McCarthy forty nine to one, Marco Penge 388 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,440 Speaker 1: fifty four to one, Jordan Smith and Nick Taylor fifty 389 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: eight to one. Alex smalley is sixty to one. Ricky 390 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: Castilio is sixty one to one, thorbiorn Olison sixty three 391 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 1: to one, Johnny Keefer and Steven Jaeger sixty four to one, 392 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: Tony Fenow sixty five to one, Sudarshan Yellow Miraju. Those 393 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: triple digit numbers are gone, Bo sixty six to one, 394 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 1: will Zalatoris is sixty eight to one, Davis Thompson sixty 395 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 1: nine to one, and defending champ Brian Harmon seventy to one. 396 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 1: How do you feel about these guys? 397 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 2: So right off the top, JJ Spahn prior champion here 398 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: playing better golf now than he did that season where 399 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 2: he won. Here, JJ Spahn is an easy click at 400 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 2: thirty eight to one, and then we're going back to 401 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 2: the world because even though the triple digits are gone, 402 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 2: Sedarsian Yello Maraju has made five out of six cuts 403 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 2: this season as a PGA to a rookie and also 404 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 2: has finished top ten two times in a row, and 405 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 2: so even at sixty six to one is a value. 406 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 2: He's a great ball striker on approach. He's been so 407 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 2: good this season, and that's what we need. We need 408 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 2: a good approach game and good ability to make birdies 409 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 2: where they present themselves. Sadarshan Yellamraju is still a value 410 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 2: at sixty six to one, so I'm going right back 411 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: to him. 412 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: I'm slightly intrigued by Rio hussatzin A having a terrific season. 413 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 1: His game wouldn't seem to be a great fit for 414 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 1: TPC San Antonio bow and yet he finished fifth here 415 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 1: last year. Like the guy just kind of keeps surprising. 416 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: Danny McCarthy just sort of a horse for the course. 417 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: He's finished top twenty in four of his last six 418 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 1: trips to the Oaks Course, including that runner up finish 419 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 1: to Akshay two years ago. His season got off to 420 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: a bad start this year, but he's played better the 421 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, finishing twenty sixth at the Valspar 422 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: and then twelfth at the Houston Open. Thorbiorn Olison just 423 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,159 Speaker 1: seems to like this course. He's played this event twice, 424 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: he was fourteenth and twenty twenty four fifth last year. 425 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: He'd missed the cut in four of his previous five 426 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: events on tour this year before rolling into Houston last 427 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 1: week and finishing fourteenth. So guy on an upswing coming 428 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: into a course he likes. That's intriguing to me. 429 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, so a little bit more about Hussatsine. Okay, I 430 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 2: was just looking him up because he was not too 431 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,479 Speaker 2: low on my model. I had to look it up 432 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 2: because ball striking wise, t de Green twenty first, thirty 433 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 2: six on approach, which is a very important metric. Here, 434 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 2: he's twenty seventh and strokes gained par four and good 435 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 2: drive percentage finding fairways setting yourself up for good approach 436 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 2: doots he's twelfth. He's eleventh, and sand saves percentage in 437 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 2: this field. Surprisingly, Rio's got some sand game to him. 438 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 2: He's also one of the best par four scorers on 439 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 2: tour this year, and even though he's not the most 440 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 2: explosive birdie maker or par five scorer, he's more of 441 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: an accuracy, not power bombing gouge guy. He's very good 442 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 2: bogie avoidance and he also happens to dis like it here. 443 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 2: So if you're keen on following the Rio Kissatsine train, 444 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 2: it's not without merit. This guy's a great straight ball 445 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 2: striker who can get out of trouble if he's in it. 446 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 2: He's not the best putter, but we know that. 447 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. The potter is the one thing that 448 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:21,199 Speaker 1: frightens me. 449 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 2: It's just how it goes. Now. 450 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 1: We'll talk long shots in just a moment, but first. 451 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 2: Track your bets, stay accountable and level up. By downloading 452 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 2: the Betting Pros app with Sportsbooks Sinc. You can automatically 453 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 2: track your bets across all major sports books and one spot. 454 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 2: Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type, 455 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 2: including game picks, props, and parlays. Create your own custom 456 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 2: betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. New 457 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 2: users can get six mounts of Betting Pros Premium free 458 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,439 Speaker 2: with your first deposit and wager at one of our 459 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 2: partner sports books. Learn more at bettings dot com slash premium. 460 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: What about long shots? But is there anyone at odds 461 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: longer than seventy to one who has your attention? 462 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 2: You got me all excited last week with pontous Niholm. 463 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 2: That was a hell of a call. He was nowhere 464 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 2: near my radar. I had decided to look deeper into it. 465 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,560 Speaker 2: I didn't bet on him, but like you did, but 466 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 2: I was rooting for him as we came down the stretch. 467 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 2: Because on Saturday I message you that not only did 468 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 2: Ponchos make the cut. He was charging on the weekend 469 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 2: and he ended up finishing top ten cash your top 470 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,360 Speaker 2: twenty bet. So you got me motivated to really look 471 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 2: at my long shots this week, and I came up 472 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 2: with two guys who are both in the top ten 473 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,439 Speaker 2: of my model. They're both one hundred and fifty to 474 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 2: one to win outright, and they're both your guys. First 475 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 2: one is Sammy Volamacky. How how many times is the Finn, 476 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 2: the big Finn gonna come out for us? Sammy La Machi, 477 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 2: big fin energy is gonna be getting a nice, big, 478 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 2: hefty bed at one hundred and fifty to one. And 479 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 2: then of course I can't go one hundred and fifty 480 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:14,360 Speaker 2: to one on Sammy without going with Emiliano Grillo at 481 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,400 Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty to one. It comes out there 482 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,919 Speaker 2: right there, neck and neck on my model. They're both 483 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 2: green across the board, Bogey avoidance surprisingly good. Sammy's game 484 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,160 Speaker 2: is distance and he's lights out fifth in this field, 485 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: plutting twenty sixth in short game. He's also eleventh on 486 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 2: approach outstanding. Sammy Volamachi really fits this golf course compcourse 487 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 2: being a Punta Kana where he excelled slow greens distances 488 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 2: is a plus, but more accuracy driven and Emilianogrillo is 489 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 2: third in this field and good drives gained and twenty 490 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 2: fifth in scrambling if he gets into trouble, I just 491 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 2: can't say enough about both of those guys being one 492 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,040 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty to one. They're both your guys. You 493 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: you inspired me last week with Knieholm. Let's go. I'm 494 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 2: doing both of them nice. 495 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:10,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. Sammy finished twelfth at the Valero Texas Open last year. 496 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,360 Speaker 1: Hasn't totally been on top of his game this year, 497 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,439 Speaker 1: but last season he was inside the top twenty in 498 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 1: both strokes gain and approach in strokes game putting pretty good combination, Grio. 499 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: I just think he's too good a player to be 500 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one in a field that's 501 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 1: missing Scotty and Rory like he was seventh at the 502 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 1: Valspar a couple of weeks ago, eighteenth at the Valero 503 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,360 Speaker 1: Texas Opened last year. So I'm with you on both 504 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: of these. Bo love it so a couple of interesting ones. 505 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: I'll just run by you. David Lipski one hundred and 506 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 1: ninety to one almost won the valspar two weeks ago, 507 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 1: finishing second Pontis Knieholm three hundred and twenty to one. 508 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 1: They quietly quietly finished top twenty and three of his 509 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 1: last four events. Although honestly, boy, I don't know if 510 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: this is the best venue for a bomber who sprays 511 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 1: it off the tea like Ponta's knee home does so. 512 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: Kevin Streelman, now he's got the game. I like it 513 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 1: a course like this. I mean he's had two top 514 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 1: tens and five top twenties at TPC San Antonio. If 515 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 1: Brian Harmon can win here, why not Streelman who plays 516 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: a similar game. So he's three fifty to one, and 517 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: bo I got to mention him. Charlie Hoffkins five hundred 518 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 1: and fifty to one has not made the cut in 519 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: seven PGA Tour starts this season, but his track record 520 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: at TPC Stan Antonio is sterling, with one win, three 521 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: second place finishes, and nine top fifteen finishes in a 522 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 1: stretch from twenty ten to twenty twenty one. This guy 523 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 1: used to own this course, used to the operative word. 524 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 1: Charlie Hoffman is not the player he was the valero. 525 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 1: Charlie so but Man five point fifty to one for 526 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 1: a guy who loves this track. It's intriguing. 527 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 2: Top twenty bet, that's all I'm saying. Top twenty bet 528 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 2: has got to be around ten to eleven to one. 529 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's time for the hard rock Best Bets of 530 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: the Week, presented by hard Rock Bet. Here are our 531 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 1: favorite bets of the week. Bo My hard rock bet 532 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 1: of the week is Russell Henley at eighteen to one. 533 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: Who is your hard rock bet of the week. 534 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 2: Mine is Sadarshan Yellamraju sixty six to one. I know 535 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 2: it's not one hundred to one anymore. This guy's still 536 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 2: playing out of his mind really well this season. He's 537 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,960 Speaker 2: a lefty, he hits the ball straight and it just 538 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 2: seems like twenty twenty four all over again, when we 539 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 2: were pushed pushing ak Shae Batilla, very similar story. Ak 540 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 2: Shabatia fifty five sixty to one that week and went 541 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 2: out and dominated. I mean, Danny McCarthy was there too, 542 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 2: but I think I had him too, So I think 543 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 2: Sadarshan is on that same kind of career arc as 544 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 2: Akshay was two years ago. So let's do that. Today's 545 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor hard 546 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 2: Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. If your bracket's already busted, you're 547 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 2: not alone, but don't worry. You can still call the 548 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 2: next big upset and turn your picks into payday on 549 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 2: hard rock Bet all tournament long. Hard Rock Bet is 550 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 2: rolling out daily dance and boosts featuring a live profit 551 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 2: boost and parlay profit boost every single day. That means 552 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 2: more ways to shoot your shot and cash in with 553 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 2: boosted odds. And you know those hearts stopping less last 554 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 2: second tournament moments, now they pay. Hard Rock Bet is 555 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 2: giving out twenty five dollars bonus bets throughout the tournament 556 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 2: if a team you bet to win or cover hits 557 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 2: a buzzer beater like Yukon just did last night. Who 558 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 2: If you haven't joined hard rock Bet yet, now is 559 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 2: the time to check in the game. New signups can 560 00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 2: double their winnings on their first ten bets with a 561 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 2: max of fifty dollars. That means if you would have 562 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 2: won a hundred bucks on your bet, now it's two hundred. 563 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 2: So don't sit on the bench. Download the hard rock 564 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 2: bed app today and let's get the party started. 565 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 3: Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by 566 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 3: the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the 567 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 3: Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be 568 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 3: twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, 569 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms of conditions apply. 570 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 3: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three three 571 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 3: play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you know 572 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 3: as a gambling problem, laws help called one eight hundred 573 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 3: and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler 574 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 3: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 575 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: What does the rest of your early betting card look 576 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 1: like besides our friend Yella raju Bo. 577 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we have a very similar card this week. 578 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 2: It's I mean, it's a little eerie, a little bit creepy, 579 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 2: but I think we're both solid and that means we're 580 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 2: both gonna win this week. Russell Henley eighteen to one. 581 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 2: I'm going to go against you on Mazi twenty one 582 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 2: to plus twenty one fifty on Matsuyama for me jj 583 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 2: Spahn Prior Champion here thirty eight to one. Of course, 584 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 2: we have Sadarshan a sixty six to one, and then 585 00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 2: the duo of one hundred and fifty to one bets 586 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 2: on Emilianogrillo and Sammy Vallamachi. 587 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, in addition to Russell Henley, I'm taking Robert McIntyre 588 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 1: instead of as opposed to Bow taking Hideki Matsiyama. So there, 589 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 1: I've got the two eighteen to one guys. The rest 590 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: I'm going all long shots. I'm tailing you, bo on 591 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: Sammy Vellamachi and Emiliano Grio at one hundred and fifty 592 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: to one to win and plus nine hundred for top 593 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:42,480 Speaker 1: ten for each of them. I'm doing small top ten 594 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 1: bets on Pontis, Nieholm, Kevin Streelman and Charlie Hoffman, all 595 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: three of the long shots. I want to see what 596 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,760 Speaker 1: I can do there. And you know, Keith Mitchell's had 597 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: a pretty decent track record at TPC San Antonio. I'm 598 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 1: not bet him to win, not gonna bet him to 599 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,360 Speaker 1: finish top ten, but Bo, you know how I like 600 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 1: to bet Keith Mitchell first round leader Baby's Thursday Thursday, 601 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 1: forty eight to one. Give me Keith Mitchell, first round 602 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 1: leader forty eight to one. And now for our one 603 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,759 Speaker 1: and done picks. Last week, pretty good week for both 604 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: of us in Houston. Neither of us had Gary Woodland, 605 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,720 Speaker 1: but Bo had Chris Godderup who finished sixth, good for 606 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: three hundred and twenty two thousand, nine hundred and eighty 607 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,240 Speaker 1: seven dollars. I had Minwu Lee he tied for third, 608 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 1: good for five hundred and eighty four thousand dollars. Excuse me, 609 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:44,360 Speaker 1: five hundred and eighty four and one hundred bow crosses 610 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,200 Speaker 1: the six million dollar threshold, I'm at about three point 611 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:52,399 Speaker 1: two million. I pick first this week. Bo, I'm gonna 612 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 1: take Jordan Speith. I didn't want to bet him, but 613 00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,520 Speaker 1: something about the Texas kid in San Antonio. I'm I'm 614 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 1: gonna take a chance on this week. 615 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,200 Speaker 2: And I'm running out of Bermuda courses, so I'm gonna 616 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:08,760 Speaker 2: go with Russell Henley. 617 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,319 Speaker 1: Good move, good move, yet not too many left on 618 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,360 Speaker 1: the calendar, so I don't blame you for that, and 619 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,879 Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. For this week's Betting PROSPGA podcast. 620 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 1: Please join us next week for our Masters Week extravaganza. 621 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a fun show. I promise you that 622 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:28,359 Speaker 1: until then. 623 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,799 Speaker 3: So long everyone, Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 624 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,400 Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 625 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,320 Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 626 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,440 Speaker 3: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting 627 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 3: Pros and Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to 628 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 3: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.