Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt join us each day
Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics
Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are
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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour
Speaker 2: with Stock's inchin Kaya, following a three day to client,
Speaker 2: Brian Leavett oven Vesco, writing the story is far from
Speaker 2: fully written. We expect leadership to rotate as the market
Speaker 2: differentiates actual earnings leverage from all the hype.
Speaker 3: Brian joined us now for more. Bran, good morning, Good
Speaker 3: to see you see.
Speaker 2: What was the last twenty four hours about compared to
Speaker 2: the previous two days.
Speaker 4: I would say that this is a market that's been
Speaker 4: letting off some steam, certainly in the hotter parts of
Speaker 4: the market, and primarily I think you got to look
Speaker 4: if you look at the broad index level, these markets
Speaker 4: are not down all that much. I mean, Na's deck
Speaker 4: down five percent over the last five days, is in
Speaker 4: great SMP a couple of percent. It's really the carnage
Speaker 4: being hit in the software stocks and some of the
Speaker 4: more speculative parts of the market. You see it in
Speaker 4: things like what happened with silver prices and bitcoin. But
Speaker 4: the reality is, when you look at all the investment
Speaker 4: that's likely to take place, we can parse whether the
Speaker 4: big companies at the top of the S and P
Speaker 4: five hundred are right to do so. But if you
Speaker 4: look at industrials, if you look at energy, if you
Speaker 4: look at the semiconductors, it's all held up fairly nicely.
Speaker 4: And it's all part of that rotation story that we're
Speaker 4: talking about. Less about who's going to win in that space,
Speaker 4: because that's going to be a big investment to win
Speaker 4: in that space, versus who's going to help support this
Speaker 4: build out.
Speaker 5: That story continues to play.
Speaker 2: That's certainly found real up until yesterday, and then the
Speaker 2: real economy scat kind of clicked in just a little bit.
Speaker 3: I don't want to overdo it, just a little bit.
Speaker 2: A couple of data points poking holes in a billcase
Speaker 2: for the ubst economy. That's something we need to talk about.
Speaker 2: Because people were piling into small caps that were comfortable
Speaker 2: in the equal weight close to all time highs. Should
Speaker 2: they still be comfortable with those traits?
Speaker 5: Yeah? I think so.
Speaker 4: Let's remember we started the week with one of the
Speaker 4: great leading indicators of the economy, the Institute for Supply
Speaker 4: Management Purchasing Managers Index, which surged and climbed to fifty two.
Speaker 4: That's an expansion territory. We had not been there in
Speaker 4: quite a while. The New Order's component particularly strong within it,
Speaker 4: and prices paid relatively flat. So that's a good leading
Speaker 4: indicator of the economy. Now, when you think about the
Speaker 4: jobs market, yeah, jobless claims rose yesterday. Two hundred and
Speaker 4: fifty thousand is not a blowout jobless claim number, and
Speaker 4: it's also a little bit of a heads you win,
Speaker 4: tails you win type of scenario because the weakness in
Speaker 4: the economy suggests what I've always believed is lower interest
Speaker 4: rates on the shore end of the curve, which should
Speaker 4: continue to benefit lower capitalization stocks, more.
Speaker 5: Value oriented stocks.
Speaker 4: So I'm not ready to say that this is a
Speaker 4: economy that's rolling over. Credit spreads continue to remain tight,
Speaker 4: leading indicators are picking up, inflation expectations relatively containing. I
Speaker 4: think the FED is going to be bringing rates down
Speaker 4: towards three percent.
Speaker 6: It might not be an economy that's rolling over, but
Speaker 6: it's a really confusing economy. And Amazon exemplifies it in
Speaker 6: a perfect way. On one hand, they were behind a
Speaker 6: significant portion of some of those job cut announcements that
Speaker 6: we got from Challenger Gray and Christmas yesterday. On the
Speaker 6: same level, they're going to be spending two hundred billion
Speaker 6: dollars so far this year. How important is it for
Speaker 6: us to understand exactly what they are spending this money
Speaker 6: on to be able to infer what kind of growth
Speaker 6: and benefit to the underlying economy that actually will look like.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's important, But if you take each component of
Speaker 4: economic activity, you take the consumer, we have to remember that, yeah,
Speaker 4: things may be weakening a little bit. Household net worth
Speaker 4: is at an all time high, unemployments relatively load, the
Speaker 4: business investment we know is going to be big, as
Speaker 4: you mentioned, and the government spend is going to be
Speaker 4: reasonable this year, not only in the United States but
Speaker 4: many parts of the world. So in aggregate, that's a
Speaker 4: good economic backdrop. Now when you think of this investment
Speaker 4: that's going to take place, There's a lot of parts
Speaker 4: of the economy that should benefit from in and again,
Speaker 4: industrials rallying.
Speaker 5: Energy has been rallying. Semiconductors were up fifteen.
Speaker 4: Percent year to date before this week, So I think
Speaker 4: that that story persists. Would I be diving back into
Speaker 4: software companies this morning after the self, No, I'd be
Speaker 4: mindful of that, But I think the real economic story continues, and.
Speaker 6: This is arguably the main reason for the broadening out trade.
Speaker 6: Real question right now is do you go into the
Speaker 6: hyperscalers given the fact that their business model seems to
Speaker 6: be changing from asset light to basically glorified utilities and
Speaker 6: real estate managers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I would go case by case.
Speaker 5: It's certainly not a monolith.
Speaker 4: Big story last year was that only two of the
Speaker 4: seven mag seven perform the market, and you're right, these
Speaker 4: stories have changed significantly. I mean, the things that we
Speaker 4: loved about some of these businesses with that they were
Speaker 4: near monopolistic, they did not have significant investment needs, and
Speaker 4: that all changes. So you've got to go company by company,
Speaker 4: be far more selective and can't say I'm just going
Speaker 4: to own the.
Speaker 5: Whole lot of them. There will be winners, there will
Speaker 5: be losers. Those business models have changed.
Speaker 1: Right you say, you're not going to wake up this
Speaker 1: morning and just go dive in and pick up some
Speaker 1: software company stock.
Speaker 7: Why not? Why isn't this a bibedit moment?
Speaker 4: Because for a lot of them, we still need to
Speaker 4: understand what does this really mean for the business model?
Speaker 5: And we knew all along AI.
Speaker 4: Is going to be quite disruptive for a lot of businesses.
Speaker 4: The question that investors should ask themselves over the next
Speaker 4: few years is it disruptive to more businesses than it
Speaker 4: is beneficial or is it beneficial to more businesses than
Speaker 4: it is disruptive.
Speaker 5: And I'm still in the ladder camp.
Speaker 4: There is a lot of companies that are going to
Speaker 4: benefit significantly from the AI build. You're already seeing profits
Speaker 4: high with employment, you know, profits to employment not significantly elevated.
Speaker 4: So we're in about right now where we're looking about.
Speaker 4: We're looking at the disruption, which always happens when there's
Speaker 4: technological advances, but history suggests that there's always far more
Speaker 4: beneficiaries than there are.
Speaker 5: Businesses are different.
Speaker 2: For you, though, A self described fomo guy who's not
Speaker 2: willing to lean into where the pain is right now,
Speaker 2: is it fair to say a bit of a change,
Speaker 2: a bit of a change.
Speaker 4: But I'm always looking for opportunities, so I have a
Speaker 4: fear of missing out, you know, across the broad market.
Speaker 4: And so it doesn't mean that I need to always
Speaker 4: be buying into dips or into you know, falling knives,
Speaker 4: just looking for where the opportunities lie. And you know
Speaker 4: again that that fomo is good. That phomo doesn't always exist, Jonathan,
Speaker 4: most of the time, and it exists when leading indicators
Speaker 4: of the economy are improving and the FED wants to ease.
Speaker 2: I'm definitely a fact at times this has found like
Speaker 2: a falling chainsaw and not a falling knife. Stay with
Speaker 2: us more Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this, So can wait.
Speaker 3: The labor market.
Speaker 2: This is what Stephanie Rotherwolf Research has got to say
Speaker 2: to that, Well, the data was disappointing. We wouldn't read
Speaker 2: too much into the latest prints, nor are we changing
Speaker 2: un view that the labor markets should improve from here.
Speaker 2: Stephanie joins us now for more. Stephanie, good morning. Why
Speaker 2: should we ignore challenger jobless claims and jelts okay.
Speaker 8: For claims, they were two hundred and thirty thousand. Historically speaking,
Speaker 8: that's not such a bad reading. There was a lot
Speaker 8: of weather disruption that week. When we're talking about Challenger,
Speaker 8: a lot of what was driven by UPS, which had
Speaker 8: a similar announcement last year, and the Challenger set itself
Speaker 8: that it's going to be driven by attrition and voluntary
Speaker 8: separations are the big part of it.
Speaker 9: Another reason for.
Speaker 8: Challenger was Amazon, So the bulk of the news was
Speaker 8: coming from either Tier three data or data that's not
Speaker 8: necessarily indicative of market that's actually detraating from here, We'll
Speaker 8: have to see what payroll shows, and our sense is
Speaker 8: that next week we'll learn that payrolls for January were
Speaker 8: fairly decent, and then of course there will be those
Speaker 8: download visions.
Speaker 6: Historically, I'm totally with you and I got the Challenger
Speaker 6: jobs cuts. We are all looking at the idea that
Speaker 6: this was really concentrated in three companies that have already
Speaker 6: announced a lot of these job cuts. Then the jobless
Speaker 6: claims come out, Yeah, it's a an eight week high,
Speaker 6: but ultimately still at a pretty low level. Then Joelts
Speaker 6: comes out and you look at it and it's saying, look,
Speaker 6: we're looking at the lowest job opening is going back
Speaker 6: to twenty twenty eight. How many of these can you
Speaker 6: explain off before you start to get a little self conscious.
Speaker 6: Wait a second, maybe something else is going on here.
Speaker 8: I think you have to take a step back and
Speaker 8: reassess your view. But our sense is one the consumer
Speaker 8: path is pretty good. We're gonna also have fiscal simulus
Speaker 8: that it's starting to hit the momentum.
Speaker 9: It seems to be improving.
Speaker 8: If you look rewind just a couple of days ago,
Speaker 8: we were looking at the ism and we're starting to
Speaker 8: get questions of is this early cycle? So how can
Speaker 8: it be both early cycle and late cycle at the
Speaker 8: same time. Our sense is that we are starting to
Speaker 8: improve cyclically. There were some negative news from some of
Speaker 8: these data sources that's probably not indicative of the trend.
Speaker 8: This happens very frequently, especially in the month of January,
Speaker 8: where you get some prints, especially associated with layoff news,
Speaker 8: which tends to be.
Speaker 9: A January phenomenon.
Speaker 6: Well, maybe it's early cycle for fiber optic cables, but
Speaker 6: it's late cycle for humans that are actually trying to
Speaker 6: enter the workforce. I mean, how much do you glean
Speaker 6: that some of this weakness truly is coming from less
Speaker 6: human intensive jobs that really result from some of the
Speaker 6: capital expenditures that are supporting economic growth.
Speaker 9: There might be an element of that.
Speaker 8: So we were in some estimates looking at the rising
Speaker 8: unemployment rate since CHACHINGBT.
Speaker 9: Launched, and we found out about half of the rise the.
Speaker 8: Unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other
Speaker 8: half was more cyclical in nature. So the extent to
Speaker 8: which sure, there is half of it that is structural
Speaker 8: that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of
Speaker 8: it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year. If
Speaker 8: we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.
Speaker 9: You do think that you could see about one to.
Speaker 8: Two tenths of downward pressure and the unemployment rate this
Speaker 8: year just because of economic uncertainty fading given last year
Speaker 8: was true peak peak tariff uncertainty UH a modest improvement
Speaker 8: in the consumer in which case you could see some
Speaker 8: modest hiring across the global industries.
Speaker 1: Chechiat is launched in twenty twenty two and they're taking
Speaker 1: fifty percent of the jobs right now.
Speaker 7: How does the FED deal with that?
Speaker 9: It's I it's a tough backdrop.
Speaker 8: I think they have to be thinking about the productivity,
Speaker 8: and it's kind of a call about whether this is
Speaker 8: product a productivity cycle, there's no harm in waiting at
Speaker 8: least through the middle part of the year, which is
Speaker 8: probably what the Fed's gonna ultimately end up doing, and
Speaker 8: then in the.
Speaker 9: Back part of the year they could probably caught a
Speaker 9: couple more.
Speaker 8: Times, and Warsh is gonna gonna guide them towards that
Speaker 8: because that will be an environment where inflation is also
Speaker 8: starting to fade. You when in productivity cycles you don't
Speaker 8: have inflation problems.
Speaker 9: At the same time the growth is strong.
Speaker 8: So if we start to see that inflation cools down,
Speaker 8: then it's an environment where they can still cut a
Speaker 8: couple more times.
Speaker 7: What will be the main driver of disinflation?
Speaker 1: Tours out a note today and he was talking about,
Speaker 1: actually you could see inflation creepier with things like the
Speaker 1: one big beautiful bill coming out for you, what is
Speaker 1: just inflationary.
Speaker 8: So in the first part of the year, I think
Speaker 8: that's the right We're going to probably see inflation move
Speaker 8: a little bit higher, in which case that's why we
Speaker 8: don't think that the FED is going to be cutting
Speaker 8: under Powell anymore. However, in the back part of the year,
Speaker 8: it's going to be driven by the typical disinflationary forces
Speaker 8: that is tied to productivity, which is lower wage inflation
Speaker 8: than would otherwise be the case.
Speaker 9: So first part of the year, I agree, we're.
Speaker 8: Going to likely see some pretty hot inflation prints, especially
Speaker 8: in Q one, that will probably start to fade, and
Speaker 8: then the narrative will shift in the back part of
Speaker 8: the year because that's when you'll start to see inflation cooling,
Speaker 8: and then labor costs also fairly modest.
Speaker 2: I don't expect a precise number from you, but just
Speaker 2: how much of GDP growth this year is going to
Speaker 2: come from the tech capex, not just the full companies
Speaker 2: but everybody else as well.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think you'll it'll probably be fifty or so
Speaker 8: basis points on GDP.
Speaker 2: That's pretty impressive stuff. This is why it's interesting for
Speaker 2: the fener Reserve. They could be cunning interest rates potentially
Speaker 2: responding to a languor market the same time GDP's close
Speaker 2: to three you ever seen that before.
Speaker 8: It's a very unique environment and that's why they certainly
Speaker 8: will have a tough time cutting in the first.
Speaker 9: Part of the year.
Speaker 8: When you see growth actually accelerating. So the news this
Speaker 8: week I think is perhaps a bit of a one off,
Speaker 8: and we'll shift to data prints that are starting to
Speaker 8: surprise to the upside. Consumer data starting to pick up,
Speaker 8: sentiment improve, companies want to invest again because the economic
Speaker 8: backdrop is a bit better than where it's been, in
Speaker 8: which case, the fears about economy really decelerating a link
Speaker 8: market craft.
Speaker 2: It's basically what they did do at the end of
Speaker 2: last year. They were basically cunting interest rates with GDP
Speaker 2: three four percentage points high because of what we saw
Speaker 2: from tech campex, even though payroas growth is totally stilled.
Speaker 7: Look, they've been looking through this.
Speaker 6: They've actually been acknowledging that a productivity boom could come
Speaker 6: at the behest of an employment market that is sluggish.
Speaker 6: The one challenge to this, and the one thing that
Speaker 6: I've not heard people fully explore, is how do four
Speaker 6: companies spend six hundred and fifty billion dollars in one
Speaker 6: year without causing inflation? Because ultimately, what they're buying, yes,
Speaker 6: it's raw materials, it's land, it's housing, it's all of
Speaker 6: these different aspects.
Speaker 7: It's a lot of money.
Speaker 6: So how do we get that kind of spending without
Speaker 6: any kind of price distortion on the other.
Speaker 3: Side, definite.
Speaker 2: How does it show up in GDP? Does it come
Speaker 2: up through imports, investment? How does it show up?
Speaker 9: So the way that.
Speaker 8: We've been tracking it in GDP is looking at only
Speaker 8: the domestic portion of it, because it gets funky with
Speaker 8: the imports, because imports end up being a negative on
Speaker 8: GDP just based on GDP math. So we look at
Speaker 8: it based on the tech portion of capex, the construction,
Speaker 8: and what we find is that tech related domestic portion
Speaker 8: of AI capex is but in terms of size is
Speaker 8: about one and a half percent of GDP. So that
Speaker 8: compares to say, housing, which is about three and a
Speaker 8: half percent of GDP.
Speaker 9: So it is large. It is growing.
Speaker 8: If Jensen's forecasts are right, it'll grow it to a
Speaker 8: five percent of GDP by the end of the decade.
Speaker 8: I'm not sure I would bet on it being quite
Speaker 8: that high, but it's an important part of GDP, but
Speaker 8: perhaps not as big as some of the other major.
Speaker 7: Why is it not inflationary at anyway?
Speaker 8: I mean, I think it is modestly inflationary, certainly offsetting
Speaker 8: some of the disinflationary forces that are playing out otherwise,
Speaker 8: And when you think about these typical productivity type of booms,
Speaker 8: it ends up being modestly inflationary in the near term,
Speaker 8: and then in the medium to longer term it becomes
Speaker 8: disinflationary as you actually see the productivity gained. As a result,
Speaker 8: we haven't really seen much of that productivity gain yet.
Speaker 9: I think it's coming.
Speaker 8: So for the first part of the year, you know,
Speaker 8: you'll probably see those inflationary forces because there's a lot
Speaker 8: of positive demand shocks in the first couple of months,
Speaker 8: which is why I would emphasize the data that we
Speaker 8: got this week flagging that the labor market is starting
Speaker 8: to soft. It is probably not the right takeaway for
Speaker 8: the next couple of months.
Speaker 3: Watch your guests for next wait just quickly on Perils of.
Speaker 8: Eighty five thousand with some substantial download visions to the
Speaker 8: prior months.
Speaker 2: Stay with US multile Impex. Savannah's coming up off to this.
Speaker 2: Do you want to guess now? To continue the conversation
Speaker 2: to netline Hostatigus Janet. If Republican senators, in Tyler's words,
Speaker 2: are calling this waste of time, how much more time
Speaker 2: are they going to waste?
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a great question.
Speaker 10: I mean, I think that, as Tyler pointed out, this
Speaker 10: is literally something that the Republican senators are now thinking,
Speaker 10: we need to get this investigation concluded. We need to
Speaker 10: kind of clear Powell, which is something that Tom Tillis
Speaker 10: is looking for because they do need his vote to
Speaker 10: move Kevin Walsh through the Senate Banking Committee and they
Speaker 10: would like Kevin Worsh to be confirmed before Jump Powell's
Speaker 10: term ends on May fifteenth. So I do you think
Speaker 10: you'll probably start to see some movement there to get
Speaker 10: this done, which I think, especially what we've seen coming
Speaker 10: from various senators yesterday was really important to see that
Speaker 10: they really do also want to get this moving somewhere
Speaker 10: a little bit more quickly, because this is an important
Speaker 10: distraction potentially for getting Kevin Warsh ultimately on the FED.
Speaker 1: Movement from who is it the DOJ to wrap it
Speaker 1: up or for FED to actually also comply and send
Speaker 1: information that the DOJ is asking about in terms of
Speaker 1: the re innovations.
Speaker 10: Yes, I mean, I think that's a little bit to
Speaker 10: be determined, right, So it could be that maybe the
Speaker 10: FED it just hasn't responded to the questions yet. Maybe
Speaker 10: they just need to respond to the questions, and then
Speaker 10: the DOJ will kind of finalize the investigation and say
Speaker 10: that there's no wrongdoing here. Maybe it's some other form
Speaker 10: that that needs to take, but there probably is a
Speaker 10: way that this could be handled relatively quickly so that
Speaker 10: we can actually move on from this and then actually
Speaker 10: the Senate Banking Committee can bring in Kevin Worsh and
Speaker 10: actually have his confirmation.
Speaker 7: Hearing you sound hopeful of a quick timeline.
Speaker 1: If we don't do, just expect Powell to be chair
Speaker 1: until how long?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, this is a really important question, and
Speaker 10: obviously there is discussions about what happens if you know,
Speaker 10: there is no one confirmed to be the FED chair
Speaker 10: when Powell's term ends, what happens does it become the
Speaker 10: vice chair? If there's no vice chairs, there are possibility
Speaker 10: that the vice chair could resign, you know, those are
Speaker 10: all things, and then ultimately the board could reappoint Powell.
Speaker 10: The other big question obviously is does Powell stay after
Speaker 10: his term spires. I think this is a really important
Speaker 10: question for what Kevin Worsh would like.
Speaker 9: To do with the FED.
Speaker 10: Obviously, whether or not the President can get another appointee
Speaker 10: onto the board of governors. They do want to engage
Speaker 10: in financial deregulation. A Vice chair Bowman has a proposal
Speaker 10: that she may announced as quickly as this month, so
Speaker 10: they do need to actually move forward on that. That's
Speaker 10: going to be key to Worsh's trying to reduce the
Speaker 10: size of the FED balance sheet. But they also need
Speaker 10: a majority of the FED board members to vote for
Speaker 10: the most aggressive plan.
Speaker 9: They could have right now.
Speaker 10: If Powell remains on the FED, that could limit the
Speaker 10: ability for them to actually get to that majority. So
Speaker 10: his staying on or not is going to be a
Speaker 10: key question moving forward as to how things actually proceed
Speaker 10: and also what might happen if there is no FED
Speaker 10: share confirmed before his term expires.
Speaker 6: While we wait for the next edition of Bachelor and Purgatory, Jenet,
Speaker 6: I am curious going forward. It is a midterm election
Speaker 6: year and we are going to expect a number of
Speaker 6: proposals to try to cater to how people feel, which
Speaker 6: isn't great and has to do with affordability issues. We
Speaker 6: saw yesterday President Trump coming out with Trump RX trying
Speaker 6: to lower costs for prescription drugs. What else do you
Speaker 6: think is in the works for this year? As the
Speaker 6: mental elections get closer.
Speaker 10: Yeah, So, I mean, I do think this is going
Speaker 10: to be a key focus for the midterm elections. You
Speaker 10: thought be a key focus for the November twenty twenty
Speaker 10: five elections to focus on this issue of affordability, and
Speaker 10: Trump has definitely picked up the mantle of this quite
Speaker 10: a bit more in the past few weeks. So obviously
Speaker 10: we had the prescription drug price proposal come out yesterday.
Speaker 10: We do think they're going to try to do things
Speaker 10: on housing. Some of that would be related to again
Speaker 10: whether or not, you know, not even necessarily trying to
Speaker 10: do legislation or anything of that nature, but maybe what
Speaker 10: happens with the Fed and what happens with the Treasury.
Speaker 10: Those can be important pieces for the housing market. The
Speaker 10: other big thing, obviously is there are these large tax
Speaker 10: refunds that are going to come out. Tax refunds just
Speaker 10: started last week. We'll definitely start to see more of
Speaker 10: those come out. That will be very beneficial for consumers.
Speaker 10: Will it be enough before the election, They probably don't
Speaker 10: think so. They'll probably try to come up with some
Speaker 10: other ideas. Presidents tend to be more populist in the
Speaker 10: second term of their presidency because voters are a little
Speaker 10: bit sour on the how things are going, so we
Speaker 10: could definitely see more announcements. We'll be looking to the
Speaker 10: State of the Union to see if stuff comes out there,
Speaker 10: but I don't think there's a lot more that is
Speaker 10: actually going to get enacted. We don't think that there
Speaker 10: are going to be tariff refunds that are going to
Speaker 10: come out because you would need Congress to do that.
Speaker 10: But you might see them try to move things like
Speaker 10: permitting reform and things of that nature. But I think
Speaker 10: the President will continue to talk about it, but we
Speaker 10: don't see a lot of movement from more proposals to
Speaker 10: come forward.
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