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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 3: No, We're running again, so smooth, so sweet, stipid.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen, just glorious extrocution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 2: sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 2: That's why you.

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Speaker 3: See your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 2: It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 4: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hellory one.

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Speaker 4: Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast from the

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Speaker 4: Action Network. Money is Michael Leeboff and joining me for

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Speaker 4: another episode are my Fearless co hosts Anthony Debundo and

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Speaker 4: bj Cunningham. Together we'll take a look at some FA

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Speaker 4: Cup quarterfinal matchups this weekend, the four Premier League tilts

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Speaker 4: do a little joint around Europe. Give out a one

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Speaker 4: hundred and thirty one to one underdog parlay and then

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Speaker 4: our best bets for the Premier League for this shortened weekend.

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Speaker 4: And then it's an international break, so the Premier League's

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Speaker 4: taking a little bit of a nap, I would say

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Speaker 4: before we hit the true stretch run in April and May.

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Speaker 4: We'll be back after this episode to preview the March

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Speaker 4: thirtieth weekend, so a couple weeks off with the international break.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder, wonder goal is probably presented by Bet

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 4: one hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions and restrictions apply. Okay,

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Speaker 4: Anthony and BJ A fun weekend. I think it's a

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Speaker 4: little bit of a tricky slate to bet in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League. But we'll start with the FA Cup quarterfinals.

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Speaker 4: We'll highlight two of them. We'll actually touch on a

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Speaker 4: couple of the other ones later in the show. We'll

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Speaker 4: start with Manchester United and Liverpool United is plus two

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Speaker 4: to seventy five hosting Liverpool might just want twenty five

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Speaker 4: at the draw here plays out three to one. I

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Speaker 4: think you can read into the situational spot as you'd like,

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Speaker 4: pretty much a super Bowl kind of matchup for Liverpool,

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Speaker 4: for Manchester United with their kind of hopes to make

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Speaker 4: something under their Premier League season, dwindling Liverpool of course

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Speaker 4: in the title race, they've already won one trophy, so

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Speaker 4: they're still a live first some sort of a trouble here.

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Speaker 4: Odds on, it does look like this match profiles as

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Speaker 4: one way traffic for the Reds, just judging off what

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Speaker 4: we've seen from them over the past few weeks here

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Speaker 4: at BJ.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's you know, it's very eerily similar to

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Speaker 2: the City United match that we just watched a few

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, where I'm not really sure what.

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Speaker 1: United is going to do out of possession here, right.

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Speaker 2: They're probably gonna come with the same game plan that

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Speaker 2: they had against City and in the previous meeting at

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Speaker 2: Handfield against Liverpool where they did get a zero zero draw.

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Speaker 2: But if we remember that, they conceded thirty four shots

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Speaker 2: and two point three expected goals in that match, So

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Speaker 2: it's like a pick your poison right type of thing.

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Speaker 2: Do they want to try to press them high and

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Speaker 2: get into a transitional battle with Liverpool? Probably not, So

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Speaker 2: They're gonna have to sit in some type of low

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Speaker 2: defensive block and just hope to God that Liverpool doesn't,

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Speaker 2: you know, put the ball in the back of the net.

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Speaker 2: And you know, when I was, you know, I I

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Speaker 2: don't project much value on Liverpool here, which I was

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Speaker 2: kind of surprised by. So instead I'm going to go

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Speaker 2: a different route. Normally I don't do very many props

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Speaker 2: on this show, but I was looking through because you know,

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Speaker 2: United has been conceding shots for fun lately and it's

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Speaker 2: gotten so bad to the point where in their last

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Speaker 2: you know, six matches Lowtontown, west Ham, Everton, Aston Villa

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Speaker 2: and City of all taken over twenty shots against them

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Speaker 2: at that three six y five right now, over seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half shots is minus one thirty eight for Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: The only scenario where I see because I texted Anthony

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Speaker 2: last night and I was like, you know, this seems

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Speaker 2: too easy, right The only way that you know this

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Speaker 2: potentially doesn't win is if Liverpool scores early. But if

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Speaker 2: United are going to sit in a low defensive block

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Speaker 2: and just like hope to God that Liverpool doesn't break

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Speaker 2: them down, then I don't really see a scenario how

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Speaker 2: Liverpool doesn't get to eighteen shots, you know, against the

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Speaker 2: Big six. This season, United has conceded seventeen shots to

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Speaker 2: both Tottenham and Arsenal twenty shots and the first meeting

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Speaker 2: against City twenty seven. In the second meeting thirty four

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Speaker 2: against Liverpool and the only meeting where they actually had

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Speaker 2: like a decent showing it was basically their best match

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Speaker 2: in the season. They could see it thirteen shots to

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Speaker 2: Chelsea and like their best match. So again, I just

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Speaker 2: don't really see what you know it's going to do here,

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Speaker 2: Like their best method of attack is just playing in transition,

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Speaker 2: but playing in transition against the best transition team in

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Speaker 2: the world is an incredibly dangerous game to play. So

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Speaker 2: if you want to back Liverpool here, I'd.

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Speaker 1: Take some alts.

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Speaker 2: I'd take some minus one and a half, some minus

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Speaker 2: two and a halfs and just go for it, because

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Speaker 2: that is the only scenario, you know, that I see

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Speaker 2: in terms of betting it. But I did take over

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Speaker 2: seventeen and a half shots because if they're conceding twenty

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Speaker 2: shots to Lowtontown and Everton, of all teams, there's just

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Speaker 2: no way that Liverpool doesn't, you know, hammer twenty five

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Speaker 2: shots on goal.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the way I'm looking at it here. I

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Speaker 4: think I have a hard time fee. I was saying

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Speaker 4: when these two teams met at Anfield a couple weeks

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Speaker 4: back that I think that Manchester United just going into

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Speaker 4: that match with an approach of just shut it down

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Speaker 4: is the right one from a you know, expected value

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Speaker 4: in terms of them trying to get something out of it.

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Speaker 1: They did.

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Speaker 4: It was ugly, but they they came away with as

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Speaker 4: I would guess call a feel bad draw because of

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Speaker 4: the way it went. But they did get the point

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Speaker 4: out of it. But this time it feels like this

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Speaker 4: thing is just going to get out of hand. With

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Speaker 4: the way these two teams are going even at Old Trafford,

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Speaker 4: I don't think that really makes much of a difference here.

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Speaker 4: I think that if you want to bet Liverpool, I

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Speaker 4: think BJ you're on the right track. So I think,

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Speaker 4: like even at minus two, unlike the the three way

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Speaker 4: markets where where if it lands on two you lose,

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Speaker 4: you don't push five to one, I could see Liverpool

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Speaker 4: winning this thing by like three or four if if

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Speaker 4: this shakes out the way we expect it to, especially

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Speaker 4: because right it's like, if if Liverpool gets out early,

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Speaker 4: gets out to an early lead, they're not gonna shut

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Speaker 4: it down, so and you and Ied will have to

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Speaker 4: open it up, and that makes for what could be

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Speaker 4: like one of those embarrassing like four, four, five, six

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Speaker 4: nil losses. So that's what I'm looking for here, Anthony.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think that's a good way to look

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Speaker 3: at this live too. You know, maybe you play like

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Speaker 3: a Liverpool first half also money line if you want

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Speaker 3: to try to chase a plus money price, because I

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Speaker 3: am taking some Liverpool money line here, But if you're

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Speaker 3: looking for potential alts, like I think Liverpool first half,

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Speaker 3: Liverpool full game, or maybe you know, if it is

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Speaker 3: you know, you often see the market go you know,

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Speaker 3: let's say Liverpool goes up early, maybe chase like a

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Speaker 3: minus one and a half live or minus two and

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Speaker 3: a half live because those might generally get undervalued when

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Speaker 3: you have a favorite that's as good as Liverpool at

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Speaker 3: expanding leads when able to play in transition, because that's

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Speaker 3: the really that the tactical issue for United here. We've

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Speaker 3: seen this team over and over again this year not

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Speaker 3: really be able to stop the ball in midfield and

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Speaker 3: allow very easy access to the penalty area. And now

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Speaker 3: Liverpool is going to have Mosala. Liverpool's probably rotating a

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Speaker 3: good bit of their team Thursday against Sparta Prague in

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Speaker 3: Europa League. They've got four goals at home, and then

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Speaker 3: they're going to have most of their first team good

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Speaker 3: to go for this match. I mean, Kella Hurst has

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Speaker 3: represented himself well in goal. And you know, maybe Kansas

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Speaker 3: still goes again on Sunday because Knate is not back yet.

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Speaker 3: But I'd imagine that they give the rest to guys

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Speaker 3: like Nunez and Van Dyke on Thursday so that they're

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Speaker 3: ready to go for Sunday. So you've got you know,

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Speaker 3: Liverpool's two best attackers on the pitch, and we saw

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Speaker 3: how dangerous that is even against City on Sunday in

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Speaker 3: the big matchup, Salah immediately comes on create it's one

175
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Speaker 3: chance for Diaz and then almost scores himself. And that

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Speaker 3: was like the first three minutes he was on the pitch.

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Speaker 3: So as the game becomes more stretched, it seems to

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Speaker 3: only favor Liverpool, and of course, like United can hit

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Speaker 3: them on the brake like they've done before, and I

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Speaker 3: think Hoyland probably gives them a half here. It looks

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Speaker 3: like based on kind of reading the tea leaves. But

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Speaker 3: even still like United, you mentioned some of the teams

183
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Speaker 3: they played in the last month, I wouldn't say any

184
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Speaker 3: of them are like great attacking teams and they're still

185
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Speaker 3: getting over one and a half x G every game.

186
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Speaker 3: If your plan is to go outscore Liverpool, I wish

187
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Speaker 3: you the best of luck. I just don't really think

188
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Speaker 3: that's the way to beat them. So I'm gonna take

189
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Speaker 3: the Reds and I think they're gonna advance the semi

190
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Speaker 3: and maybe we'll get into Liverpool City Final could be

191
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Speaker 3: on the cards. Would be pretty exciting.

192
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Speaker 2: Or I was telling Anthony this yesterday. Michael I'm thinking

193
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Speaker 2: about ben Woolves like eleven or twelve to oneth when

194
00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 2: the FA Cup, because they have Coventry right now and

195
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Speaker 2: they can drop Chelsea in the semi finals and then

196
00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,840
Speaker 2: you could get which they've already beaten Chelsea twice this season,

197
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Speaker 2: and then you could potentially get a nice spot in

198
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Speaker 2: the in the final, or they could play Lester.

199
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Speaker 1: You know, as we'll get to probably later.

200
00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:14,640
Speaker 3: They could lose the Coventry, but they could Eleven to

201
00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:15,719
Speaker 3: one is not nearly good enough.

202
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Speaker 2: One more thing I'll mention about this Liverpool match though. Liverpool,

203
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,960
Speaker 2: when playing with the lead this season, they've spent about,

204
00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,199
Speaker 2: you know, ten nineties playing up a goal. They're averaging

205
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Speaker 2: two point eight eight XG for ninety minutes like that's lead,

206
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Speaker 2: which is which is kind of silly. And also one

207
00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,319
Speaker 2: more thing. I mean, United couldn't even play the ball

208
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Speaker 2: out of their own end against Everton like they had.

209
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Speaker 2: Everton had twelve high turnovers against them. So what do

210
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Speaker 2: you think Liverpool is going to do now that they

211
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Speaker 2: have basically their full arsenal of people ready to go

212
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,720
Speaker 2: with their counterpress that has been elite over the last

213
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Speaker 2: two or three months.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think Unitick can find some success

215
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Speaker 3: on the break here for sure. I mean Liverpool's defense

216
00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 3: giving up over one and a half x g the

217
00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 3: press is not nearly as overwhelming when they're not at

218
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:04,040
Speaker 3: the fortress. But yeah, I mean it's like United wants

219
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Speaker 3: to play this style and they've embraced it, and it's

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Speaker 3: just like the worst matchup in the prem for them

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Speaker 3: right now.

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Speaker 4: Yep, the other quarterfinal. We want to highlight here that

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Speaker 4: Liverpool United is on Sunday morning, this one Saturday afternoon,

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Speaker 4: one thirty Eastern time, between City and Newcastle at the

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Speaker 4: at the had City is laying minus four hundred, Newcastle

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Speaker 4: traveling as a ten to one underdog and the draw

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Speaker 4: is five to one. Here the same thing. If you want,

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Speaker 4: we can kind of suss out the spot, right. You

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Speaker 4: could say that this is a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: letdown situation for City. I mean, it's a quarterfinal, so

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Speaker 4: how can you even like make that argument. But you know,

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Speaker 4: you've just played the biggest match of the season, wrapping

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Speaker 4: up the Champions League. You already wpped up your Champions

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Speaker 4: League spot, but you do have a two week break

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Speaker 4: awaiting you as well, so you can do your best

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Speaker 4: to stretch any situational spot into any game and you'd

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Speaker 4: definitely be straight watching here Newcastle continues to get hit

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Speaker 4: by the injury bug. This is pretty absurd. It looks

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Speaker 4: like this line is fine. I don't think I want

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Speaker 4: to bet Newcastle here at ten to one, and you

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Speaker 4: guys are kind of going the other way, and I

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Speaker 4: think you're going to drag me over the line on

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Speaker 4: a play on City in one way or the other. Anthony, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: so it's funny.

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Speaker 3: I bet this during the game on Monday because I

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Speaker 3: was watching Newcastle and just the ability for Chelsea to

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Speaker 3: exploit them in wide areas defensively was evident immediately, and

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Speaker 3: like their transition abilities, like we don't often see City

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Speaker 3: in transition because they control matches so well. And I

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Speaker 3: think the instructive match for this is like we saw

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Speaker 3: Newcastle play City in the League at Saint James's Park

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Speaker 3: and when Newcastle was able to get at them on

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Speaker 3: the break and one on one opportunities, they scored twice

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Speaker 3: and went up two to one in that match, but

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Speaker 3: then they had to try to defend and they were

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Speaker 3: completely unable to resist the pressure. Play through it and

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Speaker 3: just these injuries and what they've done to this team,

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Speaker 3: leaving them playing roughly the same eleven week in and

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Speaker 3: week out. You know, Gordon is an underrated presser from

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Speaker 3: the front, and I think he was an underrated loss

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Speaker 3: when he picked up a knee injury. Like he going

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Speaker 3: out is pretty important because his pressing helps the fullbacks

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Speaker 3: where they're not good defensively at all. And you've got

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Speaker 3: Trippier who's going to.

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Speaker 2: Be out for a while now.

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Speaker 3: You know, Harvey Barnes picks up an injury, he's going

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Speaker 3: to be out for a while. Now, Dan Byrne picked

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Speaker 3: up a knock. He's questionable. And you know, we mentioned

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Speaker 3: Joe Linton probably being the most underrated of all the

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Speaker 3: losses because of how much ball winning they get from him.

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Speaker 3: All of their best pressers and ball winners except for

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Speaker 3: Bruno are hurt. And now they're going to the Etty had.

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Speaker 3: I think they're going to the slaughter. Their defensive numbers

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Speaker 3: haven't really improved. The results have taken. Like they've shown

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Speaker 3: a couple good results, like the win against Wolves was

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Speaker 3: probably their best showing in a while, but on the

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Speaker 3: road we've seen this defense just completely founder. They just

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Speaker 3: came up four to Arsenal two weeks ago. I only

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Speaker 3: get to lay minus one fifteen on two and a

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Speaker 3: half for City, who should be motivated. Who has a

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Speaker 3: break ahead of Arsenal. It's not like they're going to

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Speaker 3: be right rotating ahead of the international break, and it's

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Speaker 3: a pretty light break to begin with. So I like

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Speaker 3: City team total over and with bj Yep.

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Speaker 1: I agree, so you know, I'll go.

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Speaker 2: You know, obviously the injuries have taken its hole on Newcastle,

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Speaker 2: but you know their pressing structure is actually different now

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Speaker 2: than when they played City and then gave up three

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Speaker 2: expected goals to them. So you know, Anthony highlighted that

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Speaker 2: Arsenal match and I think that's a very very similar

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Speaker 2: way to look at this match where you have to

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Speaker 2: ask yourself what is Newcastle going to be able to

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Speaker 2: do out of possession to actually frustrate City because you

294
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Speaker 2: know how out of the beginning of the season they

295
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Speaker 2: were doing their four to three to three press when

296
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Speaker 2: they had Joe Linton, Antonali available and along with Bruno,

297
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Speaker 2: like they had a ton of ball winning in the midfield.

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Speaker 2: Those guys covered a ton ground and the press was

299
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Speaker 2: really really.

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Speaker 1: Good, just like it was the year before then.

301
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Speaker 2: Everybody gets injured and Eddie Howe has to switch them

302
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Speaker 2: back to a four or five to one, be more

303
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Speaker 2: passive mid block, try to cut off passively into the middle.

304
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Speaker 2: That's what they played the last time they played City

305
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Speaker 2: and what did City do? They just can they for

306
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 2: the entire match just exploited the space in between the

307
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,840
Speaker 2: lines to Brueno was amazing in that match. For that match,

308
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,400
Speaker 2: City created three expected goals, had twenty seven shots. But

309
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Speaker 2: maybe most alarming when you're going to play a passive

310
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Speaker 2: four or five to one, the City had twenty one

311
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Speaker 2: passes in the penalty area. So that just tells me

312
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Speaker 2: that Newcastle has no shot of essentially stopping them if

313
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Speaker 2: they want to play passive, and like Anthey said, if

314
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Speaker 2: they want to try to press high and play this

315
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:41,840
Speaker 2: really aggressive style, well now they're going man to man

316
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Speaker 2: and they're marking across the back line. Well a team

317
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Speaker 2: just tried that against City Lootontown and they and scored

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Speaker 2: five goals in under and out. So there's really no

319
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Speaker 2: scenario here where Newcastle can actually be successful out of possession.

320
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Speaker 2: Now City has been vulnerable in transition or Tega's now

321
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:00,440
Speaker 2: going to be in net for the next three to

322
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Speaker 2: three to four weeks. Although, but if you look at

323
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Speaker 2: his shot stopping numbers from when he was at BFLD

324
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Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga and even the few matches Httigas City,

325
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 2: he's actually above average shot stopper, So I don't think

326
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Speaker 2: there's really a big drop off from him to Ederson.

327
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Speaker 2: Uh So, yeah, I like city team total over two

328
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 2: and a half, just kind of worry about their ability

329
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Speaker 2: to defend and transition here. Newcastle might pick off a

330
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 2: goal or two, but this should be a very comfortable

331
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Speaker 2: City win.

332
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Speaker 3: It looked like Chelsea's attackers were just playing a different game.

333
00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 3: It was like the Newcastle defenders were lagging on Monday,

334
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 3: like they were like, we're not.

335
00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,440
Speaker 2: Able to keep them, that's all what it.

336
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,840
Speaker 3: Isdrick turning on the turbos for the third goal was

337
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 3: pretty thick. But yeah, I mean it's like, oh, yeah,

338
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,440
Speaker 3: we used to have this incredibly athletic, physical midfield and

339
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 3: now we just have Bruno and it's like a bunch

340
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Speaker 3: of guys and now.

341
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Speaker 1: It's mile Like yeah, and.

342
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Speaker 3: Joe Willick was giving I mean, Joe Willick's given them

343
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 3: decent minutes. But you know when when your transition defense

344
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,240
Speaker 3: is based around Joe Willick. It's not necessarily a great

345
00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 3: thing for them. It's tough because you know, the narrative

346
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,320
Speaker 3: is simple. It's like, oh, like they couldn't handle the

347
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 3: Champions League and in the Premier League. But really the

348
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,520
Speaker 3: falloff any team that dealt with this many injuries was

349
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 3: always gonna be a disaster. So you know, I feel

350
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 3: I feel for them a little, but I also don't.

351
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 4: Okay, So that's the FA Cup. Like I said, We've

352
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:21,920
Speaker 4: got a couple other matches we'll probably touch on towards

353
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 4: the end of the show. Burnley and Brentford will kick

354
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,879
Speaker 4: off the four match Premier League portion Burnley plus two

355
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,439
Speaker 4: ten at home, Brentford one plus one ten on the

356
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:36,880
Speaker 4: road and the draw. Here is sitting at plus two

357
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 4: eighty Burnley with that draw against west Ham to to

358
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,359
Speaker 4: stop the rot a little bit, Brentford is still in

359
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,160
Speaker 4: the slide. This if you want, you want to squint

360
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,399
Speaker 4: and call it a relegation six pointer, you can with

361
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,119
Speaker 4: with Brentford sitting twenty six points in fifteenth place. Right

362
00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 4: behind them is Everden A twenty five Forrest and seventeenth

363
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 4: and twenty four at Lootontown twenty one and eighteenth and

364
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 4: Burnley and Sheffield are propping up the table fourteen points

365
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 4: a piece. But Sheffield has a much worse goal differential,

366
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 4: So I think if I had, I don't. It's it's

367
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,160
Speaker 4: an ugly match to bet. I don't really see much

368
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,920
Speaker 4: appeal in it. I think Brentford would be the side

369
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 4: I would lean to here. I think that I would

370
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 4: trust them to be able to handle what Burnley's gonna

371
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 4: throw out them. It just hasn't worked for the Clarets

372
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 4: at all. That said, it's just the number on the road.

373
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,200
Speaker 4: It's just not appetizing at all here Bja.

374
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 1: It's not.

375
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just really nothing I can take from this match.

376
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 2: Like I saw this and I was like, oh, like,

377
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,639
Speaker 2: maybe we'll get a decent number on Brentford because like

378
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 2: clearly they're in the relegation. Bat also maybe the market

379
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,399
Speaker 2: would you know, give us like a Brentford plus one

380
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 2: thirty plus one thirty five. But we're not even close

381
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 2: to that, So I think this is an easy pass.

382
00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,679
Speaker 2: You know, Burnley head over their last few matches, you

383
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 2: know they've they've played a pretty difficult schedule. You know,

384
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 2: they've played Liverpool, they've played Arsenal. Recently they got to

385
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 2: write a card against Crystal Palace, so you can't really

386
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 2: take much from that. But their match at home against Bournemouth,

387
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 2: they were actually really good at controlling the middle of

388
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 2: the pitch. They controlled seventy four percent of the ball,

389
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,439
Speaker 2: but Bornmany just beat them in transition a couple of times,

390
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,359
Speaker 2: and that's what can happen here, especially against Brentford. So

391
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 2: don't be shocked to see if Burnley is controlling the

392
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 2: ball for like sixty percent of the match, like Brentford

393
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: can set up very easily in their three to five two.

394
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 2: I know they usually go to a four three three

395
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 2: when they played teams like this, and Burnley has transitioned

396
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 2: to more of a four to four to two rather

397
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 2: than what they were playing at the beginning of the season.

398
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: But again, the number is just not even close to

399
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 2: good enough to bet Brentford here in the total is

400
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 2: seems about right for me, So this is an easy pass.

401
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 3: I'm incredibly tempted by the under, but that's about the

402
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 3: only way I'd play this. It's just like, Okay, yeah,

403
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 3: Burnley's gonna have a lot of the ball and Branford's

404
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 3: going to try to hit them on the break. But

405
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 3: like Burnley, is not a great attack. So when the

406
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 3: team who has the ball I don't think is more

407
00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 3: of the ball is also not going to be particularly

408
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 3: function at creating high quality chances, then I think that

409
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 3: just naturally sets you in like a very much of

410
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 3: a stalemate pattern. And like, yeah, maybe Brentford is like

411
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 3: super efficient in their transitions that day and they just

412
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,880
Speaker 3: romp them like three to one, But this more likely

413
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 3: to me plays out like a one to one two

414
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 3: one kind of game and getting to four seems awfully

415
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 3: tough here, but you are laying a little bit of

416
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 3: juice on the under So uh, it's a lean for me,

417
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 3: but no real play here, not something I want to force.

418
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,360
Speaker 4: The game of the weekend in the Premier League, though,

419
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 4: is an actual relegation six pointer between Lutontown and Forrest,

420
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 4: this one at Kenilworth Road, where Loutontown is a slight underdog.

421
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 4: There plus one seventy Forest plus one fifty and the

422
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 4: draw here is plus two point fifty. A win for

423
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 4: Luton Town would obviously be massive. It would draw them

424
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 4: level on points and goal difference will at least with

425
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 4: new nose nodding a forest who also have that, you know,

426
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 4: the elephant in the room of the possible points deduction

427
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 4: hanging over them.

428
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 2: Uh.

429
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 4: That said, I do think that Noddingham forced is making

430
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 4: marginal improvements without the results coming their way. So I

431
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 4: continue to be intrigued by betting them. You look at

432
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 4: their last five matches. Four of the last five they

433
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 4: held their opponent to under one expected goal and the

434
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 4: only team that they couldn't get there against was Liverpool,

435
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 4: who put up a goal on what point three and

436
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 4: that goal of course came in like the what the.

437
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:32,199
Speaker 1: Well, that shouldn't have happened.

438
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Liverpool stoppage time that they get it's always

439
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 4: what plus six for everybody and then plus you got

440
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 4: to add on the three more for yeah, exactly.

441
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 3: We call that clop time.

442
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, clop time, the bund the bundo time.

443
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 3: So and I mean that even had a penalty last

444
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 3: week probably so it's even.

445
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 4: Okay, the uh, the point I'm making here is that

446
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 4: I don't think that there uh it should be three,

447
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 4: it should be three out of five. But their last

448
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 4: five matches and that one, the other one that they

449
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 4: didn't was that crazy match against assen Villa. The four too,

450
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 4: so it's the defensive numbers have been better, they just

451
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 4: haven't collected the results. So I think that if anything,

452
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 4: I just would trust for us to be the better

453
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 4: team here, play the better brand of defensive soccer, keep

454
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 4: things kind of quiet, a ton of pressure on Lootontown,

455
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 4: I don't. I think home field advantage in these situations

456
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 4: sometimes get overrated a bit and it could be more

457
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 4: pressure than anything else. So I think we'll get a

458
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 4: bet for us here.

459
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 2: BJ plus one I'm going to as well. I think

460
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 2: this match actually sets up perfectly for how they're playing

461
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: under nun. You know, the the marginal improvements and what

462
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 2: they were trying to do is they were trying to

463
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: build out of the back more. They were trying to play,

464
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 2: you know, not Steve Cooper ball.

465
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 1: But they've kind of gone.

466
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 2: Back to Steve Cooper ball as we've seen these last

467
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 2: few matches where they're just playing in these low defensive blocks.

468
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: But guess what, they're actually really good in their low

469
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 2: defensive block. Number one team in the Premier League in

470
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 2: final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. This sets

471
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 2: up perfectly because they do have pace going forward in transition.

472
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 2: This is going to be a transition based match because

473
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 2: that's what Louton Town wants to play. And as we've

474
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: seen from Louton Town, they like to man mark all

475
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: over the pitch and well there's just a ton of

476
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 2: space in behind, so there's a lot of room here

477
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 2: for Nottingham Forest to operate. They've been very good defensively.

478
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 2: You know, they've had some bad matches against you know,

479
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 2: Villa and Liverpool and Newcastle, but in seven of their

480
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: last ten Premier League matches they've held opponents under one

481
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: and a half expected goal, just held Brighton on the

482
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: road to point four expected goals. So this is a

483
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 2: very very good defensive team. The one worry here for

484
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 2: them is they've given up the most goals off a

485
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 2: set pieces like that is a big concern here against Lutontown.

486
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: But under Nuno they have a minus point one actually

487
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: differentially per ninety when under Steve Cooper they were mount

488
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: minus a little over minus point four. So there has

489
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,360
Speaker 2: been really good improvements with this Nottingham Forest team. They

490
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 2: are overdue for a little bit of positive aggression here.

491
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 2: Louton Town's obviously playing on Wednesday. We're recording this before

492
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: the Bornemuth Luton Town match on Wednesday for those out there,

493
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 2: So hopefully that ends in you know, four or five

494
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: six goals. But but the way Louton Town has been playing,

495
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 2: they're going to give Notingham for so much space here.

496
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 2: And I have Forest projected as a plus one twenty

497
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 2: six favorite here you also have to factor in, like, yes,

498
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 2: they are a minus point one extra differential for ninety

499
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,479
Speaker 2: under no no, but there was a stretch from January

500
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: to February their whole defense was gone at AFCON. So

501
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 2: it's actually very encouraging what they're doing. So I think

502
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 2: there actually is value here on Forrest.

503
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: So I like them. John o Bett at minus one fifteen.

504
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 3: You know, it's funny because this we talked about Forrest.

505
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 3: I remember saying early in the year, like they're playing

506
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 3: the lowest event brand football in the league right now.

507
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 3: If they had just had a good goalie, this would

508
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 3: have been a totally different conversation. Like Steve Cooper still

509
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 3: has his job, Like I don't think he was. You know,

510
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: we've gone back and forth with him, We've we've done

511
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 3: the bit on Cooper at this point. But like, if

512
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 3: you're gonna play the style that Forest plays, you pretty

513
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 3: much have to have a decent goalie. You're conceding shots,

514
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 3: you're conceding space. You're gonna play a defensive low block

515
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 3: that does apply little to no ball pressure until teams

516
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,719
Speaker 3: literally get the ball into your penalty area. But the

517
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 3: set piece thing is a little scary. That's the only

518
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: thing that scares me here. I agree BJ. I hope

519
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: the Luton match goes way over today because if this

520
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 3: were to get to three, like minus one thirty or better,

521
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 3: I'm on the under because I just don't think either

522
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 3: attacks efficient enough right now to warrant that total being

523
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 3: at three. I know that Luton has played this like

524
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 3: chaotic ball, but at home against Nottingham Forest, it is

525
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,199
Speaker 3: really hard to get Forest to want to play that

526
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 3: style with you, especially given the circumstances where it's for

527
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 3: Forest especially it's like, we really don't need to win

528
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 3: this match. If we just draw on the road and

529
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 3: keep louton at Bay like, it's gonna be very hard

530
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: for them to catch us in the last nine matches,

531
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 3: unless obviously there's a suspension or deduction. But yeah, at

532
00:25:58,359 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 3: this word, to get to three, it mightnus one thirty

533
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 3: or better. I would bet the under right now, it's

534
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 3: like minus one forty is the best number out there.

535
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 3: So again, if it takes some over money after this

536
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 3: Luton game hopefully goes over for you today or on

537
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: Wednesday or went over, then we can get some under

538
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 3: money to come in because Luton, as fun as they've

539
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 3: been and as crazy as this carpet ride has been,

540
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 3: they've now gone on a pretty lengthy spell of just

541
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 3: not actually winning anything and they're extually created since December

542
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: one point six per match. Pretty encouraging, but that's like

543
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 3: about as high as you can probably get Luten in

544
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 3: terms of like, yes, they've been creating a ton of chances.

545
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 3: Do we expect it to continue?

546
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: Hmmm?

547
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 3: I'm a little skeptical of that. So that's where I

548
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: kind of see this match going, and I wouldn't be shocked.

549
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 3: I leaned toward for us as well, but I'm pretty

550
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 3: close to the market.

551
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 4: So okay, Fulham and Spurs up next. The Cottagers are

552
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 4: a plus two twenty home underdog, Spurs even money on

553
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 4: the road. That draw is plus two fifty for this one, Anthony,

554
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 4: any thoughts on your pet team Tottenham?

555
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: Not a ton here?

556
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 2: You know.

557
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 3: Fulham likes to play this chaotic, energetic, up tempo style

558
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 3: that involves a lot of pressing and ball winning and

559
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 3: they want there to be a lot of possessions and

560
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 3: that's a game that Tottenham is just like very comfortable with.

561
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 3: I think the way to beat Tottenham is to, you know,

562
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 3: play a more defensive, low blockish if you're a worst team,

563
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 3: and that's really not what Fulham's gonna do. And I

564
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: think Tottenham, you know, we talked about this with other teams,

565
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: but like, I think Tottenham has maybe benefited from the

566
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 3: way the league is this year more than anybody in

567
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 3: the sense that teams are happy to play ange ball

568
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 3: with ange where it's like, yeah, defending's optional, there's going

569
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 3: to be spacing behind and you know, you kind of

570
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 3: saw that last week with Villa, where that game was

571
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 3: like pretty dead for a while and then all of

572
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 3: a sudden, like one or two you know, mistakes, and

573
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 3: all of a sudden it's two nil and then there's

574
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 3: a red car like it's snowballs on you so fast

575
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 3: when you play ange And I think that's something. And

576
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: the way Tottenham has adjusted out of halftime has been

577
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 3: really impressive this year. They've scored so many goals in

578
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 3: the first fifteen minutes of the second half this year,

579
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 3: it's kind of insane, and I think that's something that

580
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 3: maybe you target live right, Like I joked about this

581
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 3: in our discord channel Tottenham this year, like it doesn't

582
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: matter what this halftime score is, because you can just

583
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 3: assume that there'res going to be at least two to

584
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 3: three goals in the second half minimum every game.

585
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: And it's kind of.

586
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 3: Played out that way in a lot of ways, even

587
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 3: the last two games. Like if you had the under

588
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 3: in the last two Tottenham games, you had under three

589
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 3: against Palace, it was nil no at half ends three

590
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 3: to one, and you had under three and a half

591
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 3: against in Villa Spurs it's nil no at half ends

592
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: four nil. It's like, how did that happen?

593
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 1: What?

594
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 4: Wait? What you know?

595
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: We scored three times, two of them coming in stoppage time.

596
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 3: Here's the stats on it though this season Tottenham last

597
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 3: four months, so since October, Tottenham is averaging three x

598
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: G per ninety minutes in the fifteen minutes coming out

599
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 3: of halftime. So I don't know what's going on in

600
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 3: the halftime or whether you know, Andre's a monster tactician

601
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: or he's figuring some things out or whatever. But I

602
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 3: think that leads me to say, hey, look like maybe

603
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 3: this plays out ugly in the first half. You know,

604
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 3: Tottenham and Fulham like not a ton of chances and

605
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 3: it's a nil nil, or maybe it's one to one

606
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: and you can get Tottenham at like plus one fifty

607
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: plus one sixty halftime, then maybe I hop in because

608
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 3: I do think they have real advantages as the you know,

609
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 3: match gets later on. They have a deeper team full

610
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: of attackers. So that's where I would look to play this.

611
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 3: If it's tied. I want no part of Tottenham live

612
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: if they're playing from the front though, So that's where

613
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 3: it kind of gets really interesting from like a balance perspective,

614
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: because if they're up a goal, you know late, they've

615
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: they've really struggled in those situations.

616
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: Tottenham twenty one goals this season in the first half,

617
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 2: sixteen in the first fifteen minutes as second half. Yeah,

618
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 2: that's crazy.

619
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: Crazy, wild.

620
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 4: All right, let's trap the ball a ball. You know,

621
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 4: we tried to tell you you were gonna love this guy,

622
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 4: but he's he didn't he didn't believe.

623
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 3: You know, Yeah, manager, slimy guy, and then you got

624
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: and you know it's beautiful, beautiful diconomy in North London

625
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 3: these days.

626
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: Slimy.

627
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, you didn't hear what he was alleged to have

628
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 3: said about uh contest.

629
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 4: You know, let's not go around allegations, okay.

630
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: And I also would like to say that there seemed

631
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 2: to be a lot of insults being hurled at the

632
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: arsenal bench as well. No doubt about smoking a cigar

633
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 2: in his locker room after they beat Porto beat them.

634
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 2: So maybe not the most trustworthy source to come from,

635
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 2: that's true.

636
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 4: How about David Moy's he's leading West Ham as a

637
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 4: plus one eighty home underdog against Aston Villa plus one

638
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 4: thirty seven. The draw here is plus two sixty Villa

639
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 4: getting healthier. These both these teams play crazy high event

640
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 4: uh soccer, despite I feel like their reputations being just

641
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: overall being that very different from that. So I think

642
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 4: a lot of people just be defaulting to the old

643
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 4: over here. I don't have much. I don't really trust

644
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 4: either one of these teams, find them both to be

645
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 4: right at least right now in this weird middling form.

646
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 4: I think Phil is better. I think that we've been

647
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 4: calling for some sort of uh, you know, mega drop

648
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 4: off to come for for west Ham and they I

649
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 4: guess you could say a drug against Burnley is part

650
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 4: of that, but they right before that they win two

651
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 4: on the spin against west Ham, I mean against Evertt

652
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 4: and Brentford.

653
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

654
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 4: I think I'd just throwing my hands up with these

655
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 4: teams at this point. That's I mean, I would pick

656
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 4: Villa as a better like the better bet, but it's

657
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 4: not by much. So this looks like a pretty quiet

658
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 4: slate for me in terms of the Premier League.

659
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 2: Be Ja, Yeah, tempted by the over here, tempted, probably

660
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 2: won't play it. Noill Begain still, no Kamara, So who's

661
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: winning the ball in the middle of the pitch when

662
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: west Ham goes in transition for Aston Villa flip side

663
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: of that, I mean Phil is gonna build.

664
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: I'd be able to.

665
00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 2: Build out the back with pretty relative ease and west

666
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: hamm shown really no resistance and stopping good build up teams.

667
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, tempted by the over Honestly, I have a

668
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: little bit of value on As and Villa. I'm not

669
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 2: going to play them because it's Road Villa and all

670
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: the injuries that they have tempted but not going to

671
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 2: do it. Both these teams got to play on Thursday.

672
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: Villa gets to play. Both of them get play a home.

673
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: Excuse me, So, yeah, this is a this is a

674
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: pass and just watch the whatever chaos is going andensue

675
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: and it looks like Moyes is coming back.

676
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: Next season, which is just just lovely. Yeah.

677
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 3: I think you have to kind of examine the lineups here.

678
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 3: This is a matchup where you know, the game's not

679
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 3: till Sunday, both teams are playing Europa League Thursday. Both

680
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: teams are you know, in competitive ties. Villa is coming

681
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 3: home against Ajax, you expect them to get that done.

682
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 3: But west Ham's down a gold to Freiburg. Coming home,

683
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 3: you probably say there's a good chance they have to

684
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 3: play an extra thirty minutes. So how does west Ham

685
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 3: manage like their limited attacking depth for that match, Like

686
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 3: do they play everybody one hundred and twenty minutes? Because

687
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 3: if then I think it's a good look to fade

688
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 3: them on Sunday. So I think this is a match

689
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: where we kind of need more information as to what

690
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 3: the starters are going to look like. And you know,

691
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: for a team like west Ham, who you know, has

692
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 3: an outside shot at six, but like not really. I

693
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 3: think this ultimately for them is like, well, they might

694
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 3: as well put their chips in the Europa basket because

695
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 3: that's you know, a decent path for them. They're you know,

696
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 3: going to be close to favored to make the quarterfinals,

697
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 3: so they'll feel like they can swing that. And so

698
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 3: if they put all their chips into the basket on Thursday,

699
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 3: then Sunday, you know what's left in the tank with

700
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 3: those guys who just played an intense European match three

701
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 3: days before. So I think there's some questions about that.

702
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: And then you know, from a matchup perspective, I'm agreed

703
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 3: with Bja. I have Villa like plus one fifteen plus

704
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 3: one twenty ish, so I should bet them. And it's

705
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 3: been a common trend now for like three or four

706
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: weeks where I'm just a little bit higher than the

707
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: market on Villa, which I think the market is maybe

708
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 3: picking up on an expecting regression for them, and I

709
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 3: think that's, you know, something that's reasonable to expect. But

710
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 3: against this west Ham team that's been kind of a

711
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 3: sieve defensively, especially against any competent team they've played all year,

712
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: it feels like it would be Villa or nothing for me.

713
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 2: For sure. If I get Villa Drono Bett minus one

714
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: twenty or better, I think I might have to.

715
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would fire too. But then again, west Ham

716
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 3: is such a weird team this year. I mean, if

717
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 3: you look at it's funny you mentioned it, Michael, It's like,

718
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: all right. So you know, they had a stretch in

719
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 3: the middle of the season right around Christmas. They beat Wolves,

720
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 3: they beat Man United, they beat Arsenal back to back

721
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 3: to back. They stole a draw against Brighton. Everybody's like

722
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 3: west Ham they're doing it again. And then they draw Sheffield,

723
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 3: Drawboard Myth, lose to United, lose to Arsenal, lose to Forest,

724
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 3: get knocked out of the Cup by Bristol City. So

725
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 3: they essentially went eight matches without a win. Everybody's like

726
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 3: moys has to be fired. And then they beat Brentford,

727
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 3: they beat Everton and now they're in this europe League drops.

728
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: So they've had so many roller.

729
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 3: Coaster swings this year and every time it's like every

730
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 3: time they need result, Moyes needs a big result. They

731
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 3: luck box a win against a team that outplayed them

732
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 3: to save it and it's just like, Okay, you know,

733
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: if you could time up those matches, you'd be brilliant.

734
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it does, I mean it.

735
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 3: Does correlate pretty strongly to like when West Ham have

736
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 3: had Bowen, Pakata and Kudus, like they've been much more competent.

737
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 3: But also that's coincided with when they've run good defensively

738
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 3: like they've they've happened to have their best defensive luck

739
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: box games when they're best players in attack were available,

740
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 3: and that's kind of purely a coincidence.

741
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 4: Okay, that's the Premier League, Like I said, only four matches.

742
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 4: The other four matches that will be paying attention to

743
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 4: will be in the FA Cup. Let's move on to

744
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 4: the rest of Europe. Will start in the Bundesliga BJ.

745
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 2: What do you got Augsburg plus a half on the

746
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 2: road against Wolfsburg. So Augsburg has actually been playing really,

747
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: really well as of late. They've won three three matches

748
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 2: and since January two, twenty first they have the fourth

749
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 2: best expected gold diffrenchal in the Bundesliga. And what it

750
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 2: comes down to is, you know, Augsburg traditionally was this

751
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 2: passive low block in the league where everybody's pressing right well,

752
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: now they're playing a much different style of ball where

753
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 2: they're actually trying to control matches and they're really trying

754
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,320
Speaker 2: to control them through the middle. They're playing out of

755
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 2: a four to one two one two, so kind of

756
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 2: the Leipzig type brand of just like we want to

757
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: attack you, we want to attack you transitionally right through

758
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch. I've done it pretty successfully

759
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: and even in these last you know, their last eight matches,

760
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 2: they've six of the matches have came against teams in

761
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: the bottom half of the table, and every single one

762
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 2: of those matches they've held over fifty percent of the ball,

763
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 2: and overall of the season they have a plus two

764
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: point nine expected gol differential against teams in the bottom

765
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: half of the table. Wolfsburg have not won a match

766
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. In fact, they only won two

767
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 2: matches since the beginning of November and one of the

768
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 2: key areas where they're lacking is they're allowing a ton

769
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: of crosses in their penalty area. When Augsburg like to

770
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,919
Speaker 2: play through the middle, a lot of times they push

771
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: their fullbacks up high and then they get in these

772
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: one b one situations out wide and they have completed

773
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 2: the most crosses of anybody in the Bundesliga and the

774
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 2: penalty area. So I think it is a really good

775
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 2: matchup for an Augsburg team that is playing much much

776
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 2: better against the Wolfsburg team that's just like the most

777
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 2: average Bundesliga team I think I've ever seen. So really

778
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 2: don't think that Wolfsburg should be this significant a favorite.

779
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 2: So like Abrook plus a half of minus one twenty.

780
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 3: Five, yeah, so I think this in the app a

781
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 3: couple of days ago, unon verte Bremen under two and

782
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 3: a half at minus one ten. I have this at

783
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,720
Speaker 3: two point three to two and don't get much lower

784
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 3: in Germany very often, but you get Unio and Berlin,

785
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 3: who you know, We've done the whole gambit on this team.

786
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 3: But they've been good at home defensively this year, it's

787
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 3: been on their travels. They've conceded twenty three goals in

788
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 3: thirteen matches at home, considerably better, closer to about a

789
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 3: goal per match, and they play out this very low

790
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 3: event style. Verte Bremen also very passive. I think this

791
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 3: sets up to be a bit of an ugly one,

792
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 3: so like under two and a half, not a great

793
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 3: BUNDESLGA slate for me, don't have a ton of house

794
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 3: on the board.

795
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 4: Okay, we'll move on to Syria. A BJ, you're on

796
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 4: a Juve.

797
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a decent by low spot here for Juventus.

798
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 2: So uh, they have gone seven matches with just one win,

799
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 2: so they're going through this, you know, bad part of

800
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 2: their schedule. But even though even through those last seven

801
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 2: matches they have a plus three point one expected gold deferenial,

802
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 2: So I think this is a pretty decent by low

803
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 2: spot for them. You know, I know their style of

804
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 2: play under a Legrie is very transitional based, it's very

805
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 2: low blockie. It's not typical of what you know, you

806
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 2: think of of teams like Inter and UH and some

807
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 2: of the better teams in Italy that actually dominate matches.

808
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: But Juventus has been good against teams lower than them,

809
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 2: teams in the bottom half of the table. They have

810
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: a plus one point one to nine expected goal of

811
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 2: differential per ninety against team in the bottom ten teams

812
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: in Italy, so they are doing a good job of

813
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,240
Speaker 2: creating chances and covering these type of spreads. They're playing Genoa,

814
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 2: one of the better defensive teams in Syria, a very

815
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 2: elite at defending their penalty area, but they're very average

816
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 2: at defending stet pieces and defending crosses, which obviously are

817
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 2: two areas that u Message excelled in. The problem for

818
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 2: Genoa is that they are one.

819
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:06,839
Speaker 1: Of the worst offensive teams in Italy.

820
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 2: They're only averagingo point eight non penalty expected goals for

821
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: ninety minutes bottom three and final third box centries. So

822
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: you know, I think this is a really good Bilow

823
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 2: spot here for Uventus. So like the minus one minus

824
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 2: one twenty uh.

825
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: We talked about Roma. They just had a crazy finish

826
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 3: with the last kick of the game against Fiorentina to

827
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: save save our butts last weekend BJ but I think

828
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 3: the total is now officially too high.

829
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 1: Yep.

830
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 3: Roma's a swallow three.

831
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 2: You know, there's six goals are going to happen in

832
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:40,839
Speaker 2: this match, right, probably, but there's no less than six

833
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 2: goals here.

834
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I'm gonna bet the under at three despite

835
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: the six goal outburst that's coming. It's kind of wild.

836
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 3: I mean, they've gotten the most penalties outside of Inter

837
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 3: and Roma in the league, so swallow, that's kind of

838
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 3: helped their attack a lot. But their average shot distance

839
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 3: is nineteen point sixty yards. That's the longest in the Syria.

840
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 3: They have the lowest XG per shot in the league.

841
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 3: They are a terrible attacking team. Quite frankly, they're under

842
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 3: other profile is poor. They've put a lot of shots

843
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 3: on target despite those terrible numbers, so they've had some

844
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 3: good you know, shooting ability, but you know, still their

845
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: goals per shot is the third version in the league,

846
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 3: so it's a so swallow attack generates next to nothing

847
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 3: in terms of high quality chances. And it's a ROMA

848
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 3: defense which is top four in allowing poor shots, so

849
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 3: they'll give them a lot of shots from distance that

850
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 3: probably won't score. And Roma, as much as their attack

851
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 3: has improved, there's been plenty of run good to get

852
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 3: to those numbers. Roma also coming off of a road

853
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 3: trip for them to England on Thursday, so it could

854
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 3: be some tired legs. I just think that we've now

855
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 3: reached the point where all these goals have led to

856
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 3: the inflation of the total in a ROMA match, and

857
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 3: I just don't really agree with it being all the

858
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 3: way up at three in that one. I think it

859
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 3: should be like two and three quarters, so under three

860
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: plus one one hundred in that.

861
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 4: One onto U La Liga. Now, Anthony, you've got a

862
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 4: psychotic play coming our way.

863
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I watched a good bit. I mean all

864
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: of the it was on the second screen for me.

865
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 3: But the Barsa Napoli game that was fun. And you know,

866
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 3: Barsa looked very good attacking, you know, on the in

867
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 3: the wide areas. And I do think that like they'll

868
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 3: find some success here on the road at Letti, but

869
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 3: I don't really think given their midfield situation, that Barsa

870
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,359
Speaker 3: is capable of keeping control of matches. And so they're

871
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 3: going on the road against Atletico who again, you know,

872
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: old school at Letti would probably play more defensive in this,

873
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:48,240
Speaker 3: but we've seen at Letti this year when they've played,

874
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: for example, I think their matches against Real Madrid are

875
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 3: pretty instructive. Like Real Madrid is not like completely dominated possession,

876
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 3: and at Letti's defending deep and trying to you know,

877
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 3: prevent chances and hit them on the brain. It's been

878
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 3: a very back and forth, free flowing match and given

879
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 3: Barsa's injuries, like they can't keep teams from running at them.

880
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 3: In transition, there's no ball stopping. And so we saw

881
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 3: Napoli especially early in that second half when it was

882
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,919
Speaker 3: two to one Barsa. You saw Napoli get chance after

883
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 3: chance where they're running at the penalty area, and so

884
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 3: I think there's a path to goals in this game.

885
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 3: So the two and a half total, to me, it's

886
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 3: a little bit juice to the over. So there's like

887
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 3: a minus one forty five. I don't mind laying the juice.

888
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 3: I think that's fine. But I think if you want

889
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 3: to get really crazy, you know, four pm Sunday, so

890
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 3: right before the selection show for March madness a little

891
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 3: both teams to score minus one eighty two. What if

892
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 3: you took some both teams to score first half? Now

893
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 3: we're talking, so one of my favorite bets and go

894
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: both teams to score first half in the in the match,

895
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 3: it's up to plus two seventy at some books.

896
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 4: Good luck following that one up, BJ.

897
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:01,439
Speaker 2: Well, I mean I'll go with hey another over here,

898
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,800
Speaker 2: Kaitafe and Girona over two and a half at minus

899
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 2: one fifteen. Some interesting things are happening with Droona right now.

900
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 2: I think they realize the position that they're in and

901
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 2: that they don't want to lose it, so they're not

902
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: playing as aggressively as they were at the beginning of

903
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 2: the season. But with that being said, this match has

904
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 2: the real potential to go off the rails if a

905
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 2: goal goes in either side, given the way that Katafe

906
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 2: has been playing recently. So Gaitafe forever obviously was a

907
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 2: four to four to two low block and they still are,

908
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: but this season they've been much more willing to go

909
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 2: get forward, much more willing to play open with teams,

910
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 2: and you know, it's had a pretty decent effect on them.

911
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 2: They're you know, sitting around the middle of the table

912
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 2: in La Laga rather than being in the relegation fight.

913
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 2: They have a great striker in Moreal who has you know,

914
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 2: zero point five to five xt sheep or ninety minute

915
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 2: scoring rate. And really what this comes down to is

916
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 2: Guitafe the way they want to play, and it's tip

917
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 2: of a four to four to two teams is like

918
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 2: they want to create chances to be across if they

919
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 2: want to get the ball into wide area. Well with

920
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 2: Dronah wants to build out in a three to one

921
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,760
Speaker 2: six like the space that's available is out wide and transition,

922
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 2: so that is where they can exploit them. Now, Girona

923
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 2: even though they have been playing you know a little

924
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 2: bit more cautiously, they've been still pretty.

925
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: Elite at breaking download blocks.

926
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,320
Speaker 2: They've played four straight teams that play a mid or

927
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 2: low block, and you know, they've created seven point two

928
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 2: goals and expected goals in those four matches. Guitafe is

929
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 2: still a lot gadafes alying around one and a half

930
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 2: expect goals for ninety minutes, fifteenth and final third of

931
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 2: box entry conversion rate allowed. So they're really not that

932
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 2: good of a defensive team. So I think how this

933
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 2: match plays out is Grona is gonna be able to

934
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 2: overload the final third. They're gonna be able to create

935
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 2: chances in this low block, but they're also gonna have

936
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 2: chances in transition out wide. So I projected three point

937
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: one seven goals for this match, So over two and

938
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 2: a half minus one fifteen is little low for me,

939
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 2: and I think it's a good bye opportunity for a

940
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: Jirona over which we're hitting, you know, at a rapid

941
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: pace in the beginning of the season.

942
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 1: Now they've kind of settled down a little bit.

943
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 4: Okay, uh league oh oh u b j.

944
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 2: Me plus a half against Lowns, you know, LONZ is

945
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,800
Speaker 2: a very interesting case because they have overformed pretty drastically

946
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: defensively this season twenty three goals out off a thirty

947
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 2: four and a half expected and it all just comes

948
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 2: down to Bryce Samba like he's been having an unreal

949
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 2: shot stopping season around a plus ten post shot XG

950
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 2: plus minus. But the flip side of the coin is

951
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 2: NIE is not going through this bad run where they

952
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 2: haven't won a match or they've lost four of their

953
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,240
Speaker 2: last six matches, only picked up two points during that stretch.

954
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 2: But even during that stretch they only have a minus

955
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 2: one and a half expected goal differential. So this is

956
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 2: a really good by low on a NIE team that

957
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 2: is still playing very very well, just not getting the

958
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 2: results that they deserve. So I mean they have a

959
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: plus nine expected older French on the season, Lons is

960
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,720
Speaker 2: only a plus four and a half, So there's really

961
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 2: no reason why other than form that LONZ should be

962
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: around an even money favorite here at home, So like

963
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 2: nice plus a half at minus one twenty.

964
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 4: All right, it's a short slate, but we still fine

965
00:45:56,680 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 4: have found a way to provide you with a chunky

966
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 4: underdog parlay. This one's going to come out to one

967
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:07,320
Speaker 4: hundred and thirty one to one BJA. You can go first.

968
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 2: Augsburg plus two sixty already mentioned them against Wolfsburg. You know,

969
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 2: augsburd team that's playing much much better. Recently changed their

970
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,359
Speaker 2: formation from a passive, low block team to a team

971
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: that likes to press higher, you know, cause more of

972
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,720
Speaker 2: a modern style game. They're really good at sending crosses

973
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 2: in the penalty are I complete the most of anybody

974
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:26,879
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga that is an area where Wolfsburg struggles.

975
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: Augsburg have been really good since January twenty first, fourth

976
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 2: best expected goldfferential in Germany. So I think Wolfsburg's will

977
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:35,359
Speaker 2: are valid here and they're going through a really bad

978
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: run themselves, only won two matches since the beginning of November.

979
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 1: So I like Augsburg plus two sixty.

980
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I'm going to go to the FA Cup

981
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 4: quarterfinal between Leicester City and Chelsea. We've been saying it

982
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 4: all year that this Chelsea team can find a way

983
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 4: to just lose to just about anybody in the Premier

984
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 4: League at any situation. And I am fully aware that

985
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 4: Leicester City is not in the Premier League this season,

986
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 4: but they're in the Championship. They are top of the table,

987
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 4: and while they form isn't great at the current moment,

988
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 4: they've given away a pretty chunky lead. You look at

989
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 4: the roster and you think they essentially are a Premier

990
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 4: League team, right. That's one way to just bounce right

991
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 4: back up is keep a Premier League team intact. And

992
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 4: I think you can make a pretty solid argument that

993
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 4: if had they been in the Premier League this season,

994
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 4: they'd comfortably be surviving ahead of some of the drags.

995
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,919
Speaker 4: So I think that this Leicester City team is being

996
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,399
Speaker 4: a little undervalue just based on the fact that they are.

997
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 4: I'm playing in the Championship despite having a Premier League

998
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:36,280
Speaker 4: quality team, So I'll take a shot with the Foxes

999
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 4: an old friend at six to one here, Anthony, Yeah.

1000
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 3: I mean Lester wasn't truly a bottom three team last

1001
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 3: year anyway, so now they're probably like the fifteenth best

1002
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 3: team in England. Sixteenth, so don't hate that. But also

1003
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 3: I'm going to take a shot too, embrace the cut

1004
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 3: variance Coventry plus four to twenty five against Wolves. This

1005
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: is all about Wolves just not really being the same

1006
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 3: team we've seen because of their injury situation. They got

1007
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 3: destroyed by Fulham. They won the match to one, of course,

1008
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 3: because Fulham never make any sense. But Wolves had almost

1009
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 3: nothing going forward. They scored on a deflection and and

1010
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 3: made it work. But they're not going to have it.

1011
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:19,240
Speaker 3: Looks like Pedro netto because he picked up another injury

1012
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 3: there without hwangy Chan, They're without Kunya Bell Guard's probably

1013
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 3: out as well. So you're looking at the three best

1014
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 3: goal scorers on the team, and the best ball dribbling

1015
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:32,320
Speaker 3: player and one of their better midfielders. It just creates

1016
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 3: a lot of reliance on players who have not really

1017
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 3: been a part of the Wolves core all season trying

1018
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 3: to produce at the same levels. I think there's a

1019
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 3: risk of serious drop off for them, and we've already

1020
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 3: seen it in the last match. So I'm going to

1021
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 3: take Coventry. I took them on the spread as well.

1022
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:50,919
Speaker 4: Okay, So, like I said, that pays out one hundred

1023
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 4: and thirty one to one. Hopefully we could find a

1024
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 4: way to get one of these across the line this

1025
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 4: season before it wraps up. Maybe it's just one that

1026
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 4: would be wonderful, all right, Not to our favorite bets

1027
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 4: for this weekend. Usually we limit this to the Premier

1028
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 4: League but with only four matches, we'll expand it to

1029
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 4: Premier League plus the FA Cup quarter final BJ you

1030
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 4: can go first again.

1031
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like Nottingham Forest drawn a bett minus one fifteen

1032
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 2: against Loutontown this match. That's up pretty perfectly for how

1033
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:21,959
Speaker 2: Nottingham Forrest want to play right now. So under Steve

1034
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 2: Cooper they were the most passive team in the Premier

1035
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 2: League three five to two low block. Under now know

1036
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 2: they're playing a different formation and they started to play

1037
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 2: a little bit of a more modern style, but the

1038
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 2: last handful of matches they've gone back to the same

1039
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 2: principles that they had under Steve Cooper, where they're playing

1040
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: a low block and they're wanting to play in transition

1041
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 2: and they've actually been pretty successful at doing so. You know,

1042
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 2: they have the best final third box entry converted rate

1043
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,240
Speaker 2: allowed in the Premier League, which if you are playing

1044
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 2: passable you have to be good defending panel there and

1045
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 2: they are and they have a lot of pace to

1046
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 2: get in behind Loutontown because Loutontown is going to want

1047
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: to make this match transitional. They're gonna man mark all

1048
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 2: over the pitch. They're going to want to make this

1049
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,800
Speaker 2: very back and forth. So this really allows Nottingham Forest

1050
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,919
Speaker 2: to play in transition where they're at their best. They've

1051
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 2: much improved in renw know minus point one actually differential

1052
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 2: per ninety minutes, and that's with a month stretch with

1053
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,879
Speaker 2: their entire defense being way at afkhon when under Steve

1054
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 2: Cooper they had a minus four point four to two

1055
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 2: expectable differential for ninety minutes. So I have Naughty and

1056
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 2: Forrest protected at plus one twenty six, so I think

1057
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 2: there's some little value on them here on the road.

1058
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 1: Johnal Battam minus one fifteen.

1059
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 4: Okay for me, I'm gonna go with Liverpool on the

1060
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 4: alternate spread. I think you can play this as any

1061
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 4: way you like for purposes of the Shaw say minus

1062
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 4: one and a half at plus two hundred, but you

1063
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 4: can also play the two and a half I think

1064
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 4: close to five to one plus four to seventy five

1065
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 4: as well. By the way this game sets up, with

1066
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 4: it being a Cup quarter final and United's defensive deficiencies,

1067
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 4: I can see an early Liverpool goal and that really

1068
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,240
Speaker 4: helps us out here. As obvious it is to say,

1069
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 4: but also from like a game state perspective, where Manchester

1070
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 4: and I would have to open up being with further.

1071
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 4: That's exactly what Liverpool wants. I think that this one

1072
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 4: could get out of hand pretty quickly at the Theater

1073
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 4: of Dreams, as we all know that this United team

1074
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 4: really just can't be trusted this season. So I'll take

1075
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 4: a shot with Liverpool on the spread minus one and

1076
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 4: a half. Anthony, what do you got?

1077
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 3: You're betting Liverpool, I'm betting Manchester City. I don't know

1078
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 3: what's happened to us as a.

1079
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 4: Posso it happens the magic of the Cup, Magic of the.

1080
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 3: Cup, Magic of the Cup. We got two dogs and

1081
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 3: two favorites as a podcast, but I like City team

1082
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 3: total over two and a half at minus one fifteen

1083
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 3: against Newcastle. Newcastle's defense has not recovered. The injury crisis

1084
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 3: is getting worse. They can't really press without Gordon effectively

1085
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 3: without Joe Linton's ball winning. With the injuries, they've got

1086
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 3: a defensive full back areas and now you know dan

1087
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 3: Burne questionable trip here out like. It's just a lot

1088
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 3: of concerns and we've now seen them struggle to defend

1089
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 3: and transition. We've also seen them struggle to defend when

1090
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:47,920
Speaker 3: teams control matches against them like Arsenal did so the

1091
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 3: last two weeks against Arsenal and against Chelsea away from home,

1092
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:56,799
Speaker 3: giving up four, giving up three. I think we got City,

1093
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 3: who's the best attack of those three at home cup

1094
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 3: match that they're going to be motivated to win heading

1095
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 3: into the break like City team total over two and

1096
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:05,320
Speaker 3: a half.

1097
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 4: All right, that does it for this week on Wonder Goal.

1098
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 4: We will be back at the end of the month

1099
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:15,120
Speaker 4: after the international break to preview the next Premier League

1100
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,800
Speaker 4: slate and thinks, obviously you're going to get pretty hectic

1101
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 4: from that point forward as we wrap up the leagues,

1102
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 4: the Cups and look ahead to Euros twenty twenty four,

1103
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 4: so that's also something to keep an eye on. We'll

1104
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,319
Speaker 4: let you know our plans for that, but I'm sure

1105
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 4: it'll be every match preview you can imagine. But a

1106
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,719
Speaker 4: lot of soccer still to come for Anthony for BJ

1107
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 4: Thank you to our producer Noah, Thank you to our

1108
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 4: sponsors BET three sixty five. We will see you again

1109
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks.

1110
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1111
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1112
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 3: available twenty four two or seven at one eight hundred

1113
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 3: gambler