WEBVTT - Cliff Notes: SIGNS OF A RECESSION

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get into this.

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<v Speaker 3>So do you you talked about they curve a lot,

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<v Speaker 3>the yell curve inverted this past week? What does that

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<v Speaker 3>mean for the economy and the stock market? A Do

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<v Speaker 3>you want to just explain what the yell curve is?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>So, when the so let's say if you have a

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<v Speaker 4>two year bond and a ten year bond. Normally, what

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<v Speaker 4>happens investors will put more money into the ten because

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<v Speaker 4>the longer term investment usually pays or yields gives more.

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<v Speaker 4>And when it inverts, when the two year begins to

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<v Speaker 4>pay more, that's when we.

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<v Speaker 2>Know there's a sign of a recession.

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<v Speaker 4>So last year, ironically enough, on a marked keeping episode,

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<v Speaker 4>which is one year from last week, we talked about

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<v Speaker 4>that being the second most important indicator. So the top

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<v Speaker 4>three indicators are quantitative easy from the Federal Reserve that's

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<v Speaker 4>gone away, Number two, the inverted yell curve, and then

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<v Speaker 4>number three holding in the market for twenty years. So

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<v Speaker 4>the two curves that matter the most, please write this

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<v Speaker 4>down the two year and ten So that's one pair

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<v Speaker 4>and a five and thirty. So if both of those

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<v Speaker 4>ever across to zero or blow and we're going to

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<v Speaker 4>have a terrible recession. Now one of them hit last week,

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<v Speaker 4>please put in chat which one it was. But if

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<v Speaker 4>we have we see the two and tenure bond drop

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<v Speaker 4>and the five and thirty drop and they cross underneath,

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<v Speaker 4>that is a sign that a recession is gonna come now,

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<v Speaker 4>So lagging indicator. So it doesn't mean that the next

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<v Speaker 4>day is gonna immediately go into recession. It takes around

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<v Speaker 4>twelve to sixteen months for a recession.

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<v Speaker 2>To kick in.

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<v Speaker 4>But when I did my analysis, I have it at

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<v Speaker 4>eleven months before we hit potential recession area in the market,

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<v Speaker 4>So please keep your eye on that.

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<v Speaker 2>But those are the two that mattered the most.

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<v Speaker 4>Now I know, Jamal this week talked about the three

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<v Speaker 4>month and the eighteen month is less reliable. It's like

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<v Speaker 4>the equivalent of trading like on a one minute chart.

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<v Speaker 4>It's like it can flicker. Is not the most important,

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<v Speaker 4>but if all three hit, you have a one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred percent guarantee for a recession. But I look

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<v Speaker 4>at the two and the ten and five and the thirty,

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<v Speaker 4>those are the two most two parents of the R curve.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's interesting because you said that most people say

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<v Speaker 5>twelve to eighteen months, and so there's there's plenty of

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<v Speaker 5>analysts who are saying that this year could still be

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<v Speaker 5>a positive year, right, And even if you count that right,

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<v Speaker 5>there's still eight months left in this year, so that

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<v Speaker 5>can still happen and we can still be headed toward recession.

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<v Speaker 2>Territory.

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<v Speaker 3>So you're saying that's going to get worse. You think

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<v Speaker 3>the ecomomy is going to get worse.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we're gonna spike up.

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<v Speaker 4>And we can segue from one of your favorite conversations

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<v Speaker 4>with politics. And then after we have the midterms, because

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<v Speaker 4>Biden's approval rate is solo, the probability of the Democrats

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<v Speaker 4>keeping those seats right now is less than probably thirty percent.

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<v Speaker 4>And then usually I want you to we talked about

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<v Speaker 4>it maybe last year, but does do we have a

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<v Speaker 4>greater chance of going into a recession if we have

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<v Speaker 4>a republican lead or democratically? Historically it has been republican.

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<v Speaker 4>So when you study the cycles of everything, you understand,

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<v Speaker 4>given the economic climate that we're in, plus mismanagement of

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<v Speaker 4>presidential cabinet and some of the economic affairs, the Russian

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<v Speaker 4>Ukraine situation, quantitative ease and going away when this power

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<v Speaker 4>grabs shifts, I think we'll going for the rest of

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<v Speaker 4>the year. But then that year would be pretty tumultuous,

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<v Speaker 4>to say the least.

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<v Speaker 5>All Right, So, I mean Friday was the beginning of

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<v Speaker 5>the second quarter. So let's just I'm going to give

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<v Speaker 5>you some statistics, really crazy so people understand how what

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<v Speaker 5>we look like for the first quarter this year. So

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<v Speaker 5>the DAD was down four point six percent, SMP was

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<v Speaker 5>down five percent, and you know our favorite, one of

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<v Speaker 5>our favorites, the nastack was down nine percent for the

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<v Speaker 5>first quarter. However, however, April is historically the best month

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<v Speaker 5>of the year for stocks.

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<v Speaker 2>Now March kind.

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<v Speaker 5>Of brought us backward. That we were way lower than

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<v Speaker 5>nine percent, five percent and four point six So the

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<v Speaker 5>S and P has averaged over the past since World

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<v Speaker 5>War Two, a one point seven percent gain in the

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<v Speaker 5>month of April. So that's seventy percent of the time

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<v Speaker 5>on average, it has about it in April, depending on

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<v Speaker 5>how the first quarter went. Now, the interesting you brought

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<v Speaker 5>thing you brought up just now was the midterm election.

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<v Speaker 5>When there are midterms, I think like sixty percent of

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<v Speaker 5>the time, the second quarter usually is down and.

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<v Speaker 2>Then the third quarter.

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<v Speaker 5>Now, so these are this conflicting indicated.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's interesting.

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<v Speaker 5>Because usually, like we said, April is the best month,

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<v Speaker 5>and we kind of saw that last year a little bit,

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<v Speaker 5>and then May kind of you know, went down, and

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<v Speaker 5>we saw a June there was a spike again, so

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<v Speaker 5>interesting to keep your eyes on.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and if you're looking at the short term horizon,

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<v Speaker 4>that may be scary, but if you're looking at the

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<v Speaker 4>long term one year, two year, three, you're going to

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<v Speaker 4>be fine. Also, hedge funds had an inclination to buy

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<v Speaker 4>in the middle of March and towards the end of March,

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<v Speaker 4>so that's why we started to see a ramping up

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<v Speaker 4>where January and February it felt like who was just

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<v Speaker 4>like falling off of the empire built state building, and

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<v Speaker 4>then March we took off to the upside. Same with

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<v Speaker 4>on booking buying, so on Mondays and Fridays after hours

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<v Speaker 4>is when most our institutions will begin to buy in

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<v Speaker 4>a never midday, so when you know they're buying.

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<v Speaker 2>Towards the end of that quarter cycle.

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<v Speaker 4>That was some of the reason we got some of

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<v Speaker 4>the ramp up, like wants to fear and stuff went

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<v Speaker 4>a way, but you keep your eyes over the next

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<v Speaker 4>couple of months. If you're new to investment, I know

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<v Speaker 4>this may be scary, but please just hold.

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<v Speaker 2>For the long term. We have to.

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<v Speaker 4>We have the same considerations and concerns during uh the

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<v Speaker 4>election with Trump and Biden, and everyone was worried and

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<v Speaker 4>then we just took off to the upside. So if

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<v Speaker 4>you hold for the long term, it really won't matter. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>these next three or four months will be pretty interesting,

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<v Speaker 4>to say the least.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, the most most analysts are predicting anywhere between point

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<v Speaker 5>seven to one percent increase in the SMP. Well some

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<v Speaker 5>people even saying that, you know, they could end at

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<v Speaker 5>fifty one hundred by the end of the year. But

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<v Speaker 5>that's still like you said, if recessions are lacked and

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<v Speaker 5>they go anywhere from twelve to sixty eighteen months out,

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<v Speaker 5>we can still be in that. So just everybody just

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<v Speaker 5>be mindful of that. And so another thing, another thing.

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<v Speaker 5>So I know a lot of times.

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<v Speaker 2>People like can be time, When when should we invest?

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<v Speaker 2>What's the best time to invest?

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<v Speaker 5>If you invested, I believe it was February twenty fourth

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<v Speaker 5>or twenty twenty two this year when NASA, I know

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<v Speaker 5>the S and P got to it though, you've actually

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<v Speaker 5>made an increase on so you know what I mean.

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<v Speaker 5>Like when we talk about watching charts and then just

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<v Speaker 5>get your points of when you're gonna buy in, this

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<v Speaker 5>is exactly what we're talking about. So you could be

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<v Speaker 5>having a great year right now based on everything that

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<v Speaker 5>we're saying, even with all the industries being down. If

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<v Speaker 5>you got in at that point, you're up a pretty

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<v Speaker 5>good percentage.

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<v Speaker 4>Absolutely, And anytime anyone panics, it is your chance to

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<v Speaker 4>profit as long as you get in at a good price.

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<v Speaker 4>So for example, like that amazing hoodie with shot has

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<v Speaker 4>on and we' on sale for nine bucks, the upside

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<v Speaker 4>is infinite because I'm sure it's retelling for one fifty

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<v Speaker 4>two hundred. Everything is about the price that you get

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<v Speaker 4>in plus length of time that you're willing to hold.

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<v Speaker 4>So if you better bought that bad price, you've got destroyed.

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<v Speaker 4>But the same thing I said in the eighty five

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<v Speaker 4>South interview, I'm like, hey, tuls is going to drop

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<v Speaker 4>the eight forty three as of today, it was a

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<v Speaker 4>onenty twenty four. When everyone else's panicking over good assets,

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<v Speaker 4>you should be looking to buy and that's how you'll

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<v Speaker 4>be able to make money even when most people are

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<v Speaker 4>losing in the current market.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, so let's let's go into this. What are some

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<v Speaker 3>other signal for a recession to look out for when

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<v Speaker 3>things are getting bad?

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<v Speaker 4>So number one, when valuations the startups are being cut.

0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.680
<v Speaker 4>So like, for example, instacart, the value got about thirty

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<v Speaker 4>eight percent on March twenty fifth.

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<v Speaker 2>The business model of Instacart hasn't changed.

0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:17.120
<v Speaker 4>And let's be honest, if you looking at top line

0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:19.880
<v Speaker 4>revenue or bottom line revenue, that hasn't changed much. But

0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:23.280
<v Speaker 4>people were chasing. So same with momentum stocks. Everyone was

0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:25.600
<v Speaker 4>chasing at a high. The same thing was happening in

0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:29.520
<v Speaker 4>VC and Angel and the other indicator.

0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:36.040
<v Speaker 2>That have a Federal Reserve probability recession model that you

0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:36.480
<v Speaker 2>look at.

0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:38.000
<v Speaker 4>If you just go to Google, you can just put

0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:41.800
<v Speaker 4>recession probability model and updates the thing every two months.

0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:43.960
<v Speaker 4>But they'll tell you the probability in which we have

0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:45.840
<v Speaker 4>a chance of going into a recession. So if you

0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:49.440
<v Speaker 4>compare that two year and ten, five and thirty and

0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.319
<v Speaker 4>if you look at the startup vehicles and see how

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.720
<v Speaker 4>many are increasing in value or decreasing. Plus with this

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:59.160
<v Speaker 4>probability model and listening to market mondays, you should.

0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:00.679
<v Speaker 2>Never get confused when we're going to hit a recession.

0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:02.640
<v Speaker 4>But those are like the main four that I will

0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:04.200
<v Speaker 4>look at to tell if we're going to have like

0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:09.280
<v Speaker 4>a full on collapse in the market. My graduates from

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<v Speaker 4>my school being force Bag, drop Bag, Drop Mike, drop Bag,

0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:16.720
<v Speaker 4>drop Bag Drop.

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