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Speaker 1: You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday.

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Speaker 1: all you need.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into this.

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Speaker 3: So do you you talked about they curve a lot,

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Speaker 3: the yell curve inverted this past week? What does that

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Speaker 3: mean for the economy and the stock market? A Do

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Speaker 3: you want to just explain what the yell curve is?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: So, when the so let's say if you have a

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Speaker 4: two year bond and a ten year bond. Normally, what

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Speaker 4: happens investors will put more money into the ten because

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Speaker 4: the longer term investment usually pays or yields gives more.

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Speaker 4: And when it inverts, when the two year begins to

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Speaker 4: pay more, that's when we.

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Speaker 2: Know there's a sign of a recession.

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Speaker 4: So last year, ironically enough, on a marked keeping episode,

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Speaker 4: which is one year from last week, we talked about

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Speaker 4: that being the second most important indicator. So the top

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Speaker 4: three indicators are quantitative easy from the Federal Reserve that's

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Speaker 4: gone away, Number two, the inverted yell curve, and then

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Speaker 4: number three holding in the market for twenty years. So

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Speaker 4: the two curves that matter the most, please write this

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Speaker 4: down the two year and ten So that's one pair

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Speaker 4: and a five and thirty. So if both of those

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Speaker 4: ever across to zero or blow and we're going to

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Speaker 4: have a terrible recession. Now one of them hit last week,

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Speaker 4: please put in chat which one it was. But if

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Speaker 4: we have we see the two and tenure bond drop

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Speaker 4: and the five and thirty drop and they cross underneath,

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Speaker 4: that is a sign that a recession is gonna come now,

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Speaker 4: So lagging indicator. So it doesn't mean that the next

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Speaker 4: day is gonna immediately go into recession. It takes around

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Speaker 4: twelve to sixteen months for a recession.

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Speaker 2: To kick in.

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Speaker 4: But when I did my analysis, I have it at

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Speaker 4: eleven months before we hit potential recession area in the market,

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Speaker 4: So please keep your eye on that.

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Speaker 2: But those are the two that mattered the most.

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Speaker 4: Now I know, Jamal this week talked about the three

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Speaker 4: month and the eighteen month is less reliable. It's like

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Speaker 4: the equivalent of trading like on a one minute chart.

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Speaker 4: It's like it can flicker. Is not the most important,

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Speaker 4: but if all three hit, you have a one hundred

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Speaker 4: one hundred percent guarantee for a recession. But I look

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Speaker 4: at the two and the ten and five and the thirty,

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Speaker 4: those are the two most two parents of the R curve.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's interesting because you said that most people say

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Speaker 5: twelve to eighteen months, and so there's there's plenty of

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Speaker 5: analysts who are saying that this year could still be

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Speaker 5: a positive year, right, And even if you count that right,

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Speaker 5: there's still eight months left in this year, so that

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Speaker 5: can still happen and we can still be headed toward recession.

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Speaker 2: Territory.

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Speaker 3: So you're saying that's going to get worse. You think

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Speaker 3: the ecomomy is going to get worse.

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Speaker 2: I think we're gonna spike up.

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Speaker 4: And we can segue from one of your favorite conversations

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Speaker 4: with politics. And then after we have the midterms, because

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Speaker 4: Biden's approval rate is solo, the probability of the Democrats

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Speaker 4: keeping those seats right now is less than probably thirty percent.

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Speaker 4: And then usually I want you to we talked about

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Speaker 4: it maybe last year, but does do we have a

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Speaker 4: greater chance of going into a recession if we have

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Speaker 4: a republican lead or democratically? Historically it has been republican.

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Speaker 4: So when you study the cycles of everything, you understand,

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Speaker 4: given the economic climate that we're in, plus mismanagement of

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Speaker 4: presidential cabinet and some of the economic affairs, the Russian

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Speaker 4: Ukraine situation, quantitative ease and going away when this power

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Speaker 4: grabs shifts, I think we'll going for the rest of

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Speaker 4: the year. But then that year would be pretty tumultuous,

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Speaker 4: to say the least.

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Speaker 5: All Right, So, I mean Friday was the beginning of

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Speaker 5: the second quarter. So let's just I'm going to give

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Speaker 5: you some statistics, really crazy so people understand how what

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Speaker 5: we look like for the first quarter this year. So

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Speaker 5: the DAD was down four point six percent, SMP was

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Speaker 5: down five percent, and you know our favorite, one of

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Speaker 5: our favorites, the nastack was down nine percent for the

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Speaker 5: first quarter. However, however, April is historically the best month

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Speaker 5: of the year for stocks.

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Speaker 2: Now March kind.

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Speaker 5: Of brought us backward. That we were way lower than

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Speaker 5: nine percent, five percent and four point six So the

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Speaker 5: S and P has averaged over the past since World

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Speaker 5: War Two, a one point seven percent gain in the

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Speaker 5: month of April. So that's seventy percent of the time

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Speaker 5: on average, it has about it in April, depending on

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Speaker 5: how the first quarter went. Now, the interesting you brought

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Speaker 5: thing you brought up just now was the midterm election.

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Speaker 5: When there are midterms, I think like sixty percent of

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Speaker 5: the time, the second quarter usually is down and.

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Speaker 2: Then the third quarter.

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Speaker 5: Now, so these are this conflicting indicated.

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Speaker 2: But it's interesting.

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Speaker 5: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.

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Speaker 5: Because usually, like we said, April is the best month,

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Speaker 5: and we kind of saw that last year a little bit,

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Speaker 5: and then May kind of you know, went down, and

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Speaker 5: we saw a June there was a spike again, so

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Speaker 5: interesting to keep your eyes on.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and if you're looking at the short term horizon,

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Speaker 4: that may be scary, but if you're looking at the

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Speaker 4: long term one year, two year, three, you're going to

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Speaker 4: be fine. Also, hedge funds had an inclination to buy

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Speaker 4: in the middle of March and towards the end of March,

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Speaker 4: so that's why we started to see a ramping up

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Speaker 4: where January and February it felt like who was just

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Speaker 4: like falling off of the empire built state building, and

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Speaker 4: then March we took off to the upside. Same with

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Speaker 4: on booking buying, so on Mondays and Fridays after hours

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Speaker 4: is when most our institutions will begin to buy in

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Speaker 4: a never midday, so when you know they're buying.

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Speaker 2: Towards the end of that quarter cycle.

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Speaker 4: That was some of the reason we got some of

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Speaker 4: the ramp up, like wants to fear and stuff went

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Speaker 4: a way, but you keep your eyes over the next

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Speaker 4: couple of months. If you're new to investment, I know

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Speaker 4: this may be scary, but please just hold.

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Speaker 2: For the long term. We have to.

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Speaker 4: We have the same considerations and concerns during uh the

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Speaker 4: election with Trump and Biden, and everyone was worried and

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Speaker 4: then we just took off to the upside. So if

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Speaker 4: you hold for the long term, it really won't matter. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: these next three or four months will be pretty interesting,

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Speaker 4: to say the least.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the most most analysts are predicting anywhere between point

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Speaker 5: seven to one percent increase in the SMP. Well some

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Speaker 5: people even saying that, you know, they could end at

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Speaker 5: fifty one hundred by the end of the year. But

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Speaker 5: that's still like you said, if recessions are lacked and

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Speaker 5: they go anywhere from twelve to sixty eighteen months out,

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Speaker 5: we can still be in that. So just everybody just

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Speaker 5: be mindful of that. And so another thing, another thing.

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Speaker 5: So I know a lot of times.

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Speaker 2: People like can be time, When when should we invest?

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Speaker 2: What's the best time to invest?

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Speaker 5: If you invested, I believe it was February twenty fourth

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Speaker 5: or twenty twenty two this year when NASA, I know

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Speaker 5: the S and P got to it though, you've actually

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Speaker 5: made an increase on so you know what I mean.

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Speaker 5: Like when we talk about watching charts and then just

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Speaker 5: get your points of when you're gonna buy in, this

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Speaker 5: is exactly what we're talking about. So you could be

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Speaker 5: having a great year right now based on everything that

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Speaker 5: we're saying, even with all the industries being down. If

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Speaker 5: you got in at that point, you're up a pretty

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Speaker 5: good percentage.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, And anytime anyone panics, it is your chance to

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Speaker 4: profit as long as you get in at a good price.

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Speaker 4: So for example, like that amazing hoodie with shot has

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Speaker 4: on and we' on sale for nine bucks, the upside

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Speaker 4: is infinite because I'm sure it's retelling for one fifty

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Speaker 4: two hundred. Everything is about the price that you get

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Speaker 4: in plus length of time that you're willing to hold.

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Speaker 4: So if you better bought that bad price, you've got destroyed.

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Speaker 4: But the same thing I said in the eighty five

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Speaker 4: South interview, I'm like, hey, tuls is going to drop

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Speaker 4: the eight forty three as of today, it was a

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Speaker 4: onenty twenty four. When everyone else's panicking over good assets,

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Speaker 4: you should be looking to buy and that's how you'll

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Speaker 4: be able to make money even when most people are

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Speaker 4: losing in the current market.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so let's let's go into this. What are some

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Speaker 3: other signal for a recession to look out for when

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Speaker 3: things are getting bad?

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Speaker 4: So number one, when valuations the startups are being cut.

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Speaker 4: So like, for example, instacart, the value got about thirty

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Speaker 4: eight percent on March twenty fifth.

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Speaker 2: The business model of Instacart hasn't changed.

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Speaker 4: And let's be honest, if you looking at top line

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Speaker 4: revenue or bottom line revenue, that hasn't changed much. But

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Speaker 4: people were chasing. So same with momentum stocks. Everyone was

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Speaker 4: chasing at a high. The same thing was happening in

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Speaker 4: VC and Angel and the other indicator.

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Speaker 2: That have a Federal Reserve probability recession model that you

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Speaker 2: look at.

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Speaker 4: If you just go to Google, you can just put

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Speaker 4: recession probability model and updates the thing every two months.

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Speaker 4: But they'll tell you the probability in which we have

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Speaker 4: a chance of going into a recession. So if you

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Speaker 4: compare that two year and ten, five and thirty and

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Speaker 4: if you look at the startup vehicles and see how

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Speaker 4: many are increasing in value or decreasing. Plus with this

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Speaker 4: probability model and listening to market mondays, you should.

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Speaker 2: Never get confused when we're going to hit a recession.

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Speaker 4: But those are like the main four that I will

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Speaker 4: look at to tell if we're going to have like

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Speaker 4: a full on collapse in the market. My graduates from

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Speaker 4: my school being force Bag, drop Bag, Drop Mike, drop Bag,

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Speaker 4: drop Bag Drop.

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