1
00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:08,400
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Monetary policy cannot by stimulating create

2
00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:12,200
Speaker 1: permanent jobs, and it can't lift long run potential growth.

3
00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:14,720
Speaker 1: The central thing holding us back throughout this recovery has

4
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 1: been lack of demographic role to. That's not change in

5
00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,640
Speaker 1: any type to. We're creating a pot voted job and

6
00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,200
Speaker 1: we're creating on average over a two or thousand jobs

7
00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:23,880
Speaker 1: per fun and that's a lot more than we need

8
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,320
Speaker 1: to absorb the growth in the organ age population. Bloomberg

9
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,120
Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance and

10
00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone. What a news

11
00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 1: flow today. It is extraordinary and of course it is

12
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 1: FED day and we'll have wonderful coverage for you. One

13
00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,879
Speaker 1: PMR team has really put together a smart, smart lineup

14
00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:50,360
Speaker 1: to get you uh brighter on the FED. Michael McKee

15
00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,239
Speaker 1: is at a non event FED. I don't buy that. No,

16
00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,760
Speaker 1: it's an event FED. But it's the the the event

17
00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,480
Speaker 1: has become more and more obtuse. It's no longer a

18
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,280
Speaker 1: question of will the FED razor lower, but will the

19
00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,919
Speaker 1: FED chair hint at when they might do something again

20
00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,520
Speaker 1: under the right conditions. If everything maybe it's like the minutes.

21
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,319
Speaker 1: We'll have ShW and several in there as well. Bloomber

22
00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,960
Speaker 1: Surveillance on this important day brought you by Cone Resideck

23
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,560
Speaker 1: Accounting tax Advisory in the affordable housing industry. Your business

24
00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:29,319
Speaker 1: needs transformative advice from the industry leading experts at Cone Resneck.

25
00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,040
Speaker 1: Find out why if cone resn dot com, c o

26
00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:36,480
Speaker 1: h N are easy n I c k cone resnick

27
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,200
Speaker 1: uh dot com. And of course it's been a political

28
00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,880
Speaker 1: day as well, Mike. You know, I looked at I

29
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:46,759
Speaker 1: glean the headlines, and all in all, I would say,

30
00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:52,080
Speaker 1: as expected is a big phrase, But you wonder how

31
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,560
Speaker 1: you get to Wisconsin April five? To me, to be

32
00:01:55,680 --> 00:02:00,320
Speaker 1: the view forward is fascinating again giving us terrific perspect active.

33
00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,280
Speaker 1: Greg Villier, a gentleman from New Hampshire, is he gazes

34
00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 1: at Florida and Ohio. Greg, I don't even want to

35
00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,520
Speaker 1: do the lookback thing. I think the punditry has done

36
00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:17,480
Speaker 1: all that. How do these candidates approach Wisconsin alive? Well,

37
00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,800
Speaker 1: it could be close case, it could have it a

38
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,959
Speaker 1: fairly decent day, Tom, but let's let's be blunt here.

39
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,000
Speaker 1: I mean, this is Trump's nomination to lose a cruise.

40
00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,840
Speaker 1: Had a really bad night last night, and it's gonna

41
00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,560
Speaker 1: take a lot, and you changed my opinion that Trump's

42
00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,240
Speaker 1: the nominee. You have been so good on this, with

43
00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,360
Speaker 1: the statements that you have made and with what we

44
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 1: observed last night. What's the drama in Cleveland at the convention?

45
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,520
Speaker 1: I don't think there's gonna be drama. I think either.

46
00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,079
Speaker 1: The most likely scenario, Tom, is that on June seventh,

47
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 1: California and New Jersey, Trump gets just about enough delegates

48
00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,560
Speaker 1: to win. If he's tam short, he's going to win

49
00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,160
Speaker 1: in Cleveland, So I I don't. I think the drama

50
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:06,600
Speaker 1: is how significantly he pivots to the center. Can he

51
00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,280
Speaker 1: pivot to the center, or does he lose all those

52
00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,839
Speaker 1: people who are voting for him because he's so far

53
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 1: whacked up to one. I can't even say a direction

54
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:17,640
Speaker 1: right or left because he just makes it up as

55
00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,639
Speaker 1: he goes along. But his whole thing has been being outrageous.

56
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,560
Speaker 1: So if he's no longer outrageous and he sounds credible,

57
00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,000
Speaker 1: then do all those people say just another one? Well

58
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,480
Speaker 1: you raise a good point, Mike, and I think that's

59
00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:33,799
Speaker 1: a risk for him. Already, People who are fiercely anti immigration,

60
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,000
Speaker 1: are beginning to suspect that he's not the real deal,

61
00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,240
Speaker 1: so there could be a problem there. I think one

62
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,360
Speaker 1: thing we ought to all look at, and it's relevant

63
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,640
Speaker 1: to what we do for a living, is how he

64
00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,920
Speaker 1: approaches Wall Street. Does he start to sound a little

65
00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,200
Speaker 1: more conciliatory. Does he maybe tone it down a little

66
00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,320
Speaker 1: on a trade war with China, on a fight with

67
00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,240
Speaker 1: Janet Yellen? If you start to see that, I think

68
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,520
Speaker 1: that's a sign that the pivoting move is really underway.

69
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:06,440
Speaker 1: Can he win if assuming he's nominated well and Hillary's

70
00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,920
Speaker 1: well ahead and the posed But two things. Number one,

71
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 1: she's shown in this fight against Bernie Sanders that she

72
00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,240
Speaker 1: has flaws as a candidate. She had a great night

73
00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,200
Speaker 1: last night. But number two, the biggest wild card of all,

74
00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,279
Speaker 1: as you guys know, is the threat of indictment. I

75
00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,840
Speaker 1: think it's only about but it's not zero. You know,

76
00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:29,359
Speaker 1: if this email controversy persists, that's the one wild card

77
00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,800
Speaker 1: that does give Trump a plausible path to the presidency.

78
00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,479
Speaker 1: What odds would you put on that now? I think

79
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 1: Trump's chances are becoming president are probably, if not zero. Uh,

80
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,920
Speaker 1: And I think you've got to say he is reflecting

81
00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,839
Speaker 1: an anger. Is it a majority of the people in

82
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:58,839
Speaker 1: the country, I don't know. Investment strategist for a fairly

83
00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,719
Speaker 1: large retailer investment company came out yessue and said, if

84
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,520
Speaker 1: if Trump were elected president, the SMP would go to

85
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:10,560
Speaker 1: a thousand. It's currently what do you think? Well, let

86
00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,640
Speaker 1: me push back on that. And I'm hardly a Trump apologist,

87
00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,760
Speaker 1: but let me push back on that. I think he

88
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,240
Speaker 1: would be viewed as an agent of change, and what

89
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,280
Speaker 1: change does the US need? More than anything else? Economically,

90
00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 1: I would argue tax reform. I think he would be

91
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,440
Speaker 1: a catalyst for tax reform. I do think he'd tone

92
00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,359
Speaker 1: it down. There will be plenty of people on Wall

93
00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,800
Speaker 1: Street who will get to him and say, look, you've

94
00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:34,720
Speaker 1: got to cool it on a lot of these issues.

95
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,839
Speaker 1: You've been so bombastic on. So I think a thousand. No,

96
00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,000
Speaker 1: I don't buy that. Greg. When you when you look

97
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,960
Speaker 1: at the political mix, the tradition I believe, and I

98
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,160
Speaker 1: defer to your knowledge on this is basically a lot

99
00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 1: of people are running to be vice president. I mean,

100
00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 1: I understand it's premature, but you've been so dead on

101
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,720
Speaker 1: about Trump supremacy. Are these people running to be as

102
00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:04,040
Speaker 1: vice president. I mean, it's so messed up this time around. Yeah, absolutely.

103
00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,400
Speaker 1: I mean I can't see Rubio, who called Trump a

104
00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 1: con man. That would seem to be a rather odd marriage.

105
00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,279
Speaker 1: Uh Made, Maybe Cruz, maybe kaseyk Um. You know, you

106
00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,680
Speaker 1: can't rule out someone who's running one respect being his

107
00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,280
Speaker 1: running mate. He needs three things a young person. Trump

108
00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,719
Speaker 1: would be the oldest president ever. He needs some of

109
00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,240
Speaker 1: the men senses with hispanics, And third he needs somebody

110
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 1: with some expertise on jail politics. Those are three big mens.

111
00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,320
Speaker 1: I think it's a governor from New Jersey, Mike, what

112
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 1: do you think? No, they're too alike. We should know

113
00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,599
Speaker 1: that that John Kay yesterday to day before said in

114
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,600
Speaker 1: no way to running with Don Trump. So yeah, I

115
00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:50,800
Speaker 1: would agree with that. I don't think you're going to

116
00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,840
Speaker 1: get there on that one. But since this guy would

117
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,160
Speaker 1: be the oldest president ever and he loves meat and cheeseburgers,

118
00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,200
Speaker 1: just for actuary reasons, I would probably like to be

119
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,200
Speaker 1: his running mate. That would that would be the calculation

120
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,479
Speaker 1: that nobody could talk about. Let's look back. You know,

121
00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,800
Speaker 1: I usually always want to drive the conversation for it

122
00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,600
Speaker 1: away from the Puntree. You mentioned Senator Cruz had a

123
00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:17,760
Speaker 1: tough night. Your observation on Ohio last night, Well, I

124
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,720
Speaker 1: mean it was TASiS home state. He's never lost an

125
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:27,560
Speaker 1: election there. He's a very popular governor. I can't dismiss it,

126
00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: but frankly, I thought the bigger story out of Ohio

127
00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,960
Speaker 1: was how incredibly well Hillary did. She rocked in Ohio. Okay,

128
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,400
Speaker 1: So Michael Babbaro the New York Times is saying nobody

129
00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,480
Speaker 1: likes him Mr Trump, nobody likes her Secretary Clinton, and

130
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 1: yet she keeps on winning. And I agree that she's

131
00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:48,080
Speaker 1: beneath the headlines of the Republican soap opera frame force

132
00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,960
Speaker 1: where Mrs Clinton is right now, well, I think that

133
00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 1: it's pretty much wrapped up. I mean, right now, Bernie Sanders,

134
00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,280
Speaker 1: who's got plenty of money, by the way, I think,

135
00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,920
Speaker 1: wants to influence the platform, wants to she resonating. I mean,

136
00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:07,720
Speaker 1: is she resonating with Democratic cardliners? Is she resonating with independence? Yeah?

137
00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,560
Speaker 1: And I think she's resonating because she's running against the

138
00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,800
Speaker 1: boogeyman for an awful lot of Democrats. Donald Trump is

139
00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,040
Speaker 1: just unthinkable. So he in a perverse sort of way,

140
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:21,120
Speaker 1: really benefits her. Yeah, but doesn't she benefit him? Given

141
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,120
Speaker 1: it's a synergy, it's a it's it's definitely a synergy

142
00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,920
Speaker 1: that's going to make this an absolutely fascinating election. I

143
00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,840
Speaker 1: just think that in the in the markets in particular,

144
00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,640
Speaker 1: there's done a belief that there's no way Trump could

145
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,920
Speaker 1: become president. I continue to argue, no, there is a

146
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:41,320
Speaker 1: plausible path, plausible but as you say, it's a less

147
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:45,160
Speaker 1: than fi chance. So when when might we see anything

148
00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:50,079
Speaker 1: reflected in trading? Oh? I think we'd probably have to get,

149
00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:54,800
Speaker 1: you know, past the June sounth California and New Jersey primaries.

150
00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,320
Speaker 1: I think that would start to really change from thinking.

151
00:08:58,360 --> 00:08:59,840
Speaker 1: But I think we've got a ways to go on

152
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:05,080
Speaker 1: at front. So at this point the bed is um

153
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,640
Speaker 1: maybe Donald, definitely Hillary, and we don't have to worry

154
00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 1: about it until November. I think the bigger issue, frankly,

155
00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,280
Speaker 1: and I'm sure you guys have covered this all morning,

156
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 1: The bigger issue is what's going to happen this afternoon

157
00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,640
Speaker 1: at the Fed. I think the direction of the economy

158
00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,839
Speaker 1: and the growing likelihood of one or two rate hikes

159
00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,680
Speaker 1: this year is maybe the bigger story for the markets.

160
00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,560
Speaker 1: But Greg that goes to a point if if and

161
00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,120
Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of surveys say that Mr Trump

162
00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 1: doesn't have a chance, I respect you probability. If this

163
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:42,920
Speaker 1: guy's elected president, fine, how does he surround himself with

164
00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:48,080
Speaker 1: a cabinet then can advise unfed like issues. Does he

165
00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,960
Speaker 1: go to the Republican establishment? Yeah? I think he does.

166
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 1: Isn't that going to be ironic? But I think on

167
00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,200
Speaker 1: a lot of fronts and he'll get people who have

168
00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,640
Speaker 1: gone around, who have experience, who wouldn't scare the markets.

169
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,560
Speaker 1: I take a fundamentally flawed premise is that he's going

170
00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,559
Speaker 1: to continue this battle with Wall Street. That's crazy. He

171
00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,200
Speaker 1: has to know that a fight with Wall Street hurts

172
00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:13,120
Speaker 1: him badly, and I think he will turn and he

173
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,840
Speaker 1: will get people who Wall Street will accept me. Okay,

174
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,920
Speaker 1: Greg Value, thank you again. We really appreciate your perspective

175
00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,880
Speaker 1: over um the travails of this uh day. Michael, Yeah,

176
00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:25,720
Speaker 1: we'll be back with Greg. I got a question about

177
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:27,439
Speaker 1: the FED to ask him when we come back, about

178
00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,840
Speaker 1: what's going on not on C Street, but up at

179
00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,200
Speaker 1: the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue up on Capitol Hill. Well,

180
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 1: there's that too. Even you go down the what's the

181
00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:43,120
Speaker 1: loan called? I forget from the Capitol, the Constitution, the

182
00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,559
Speaker 1: Constitution Avenue. It's fascinating, Greg Value to return with us

183
00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:53,040
Speaker 1: on this feed day time now to check in with

184
00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,199
Speaker 1: Michael Barr and get the latest world in national headline

185
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,920
Speaker 1: Mike Time, Thank you very much. President Obama will announce

186
00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 1: his Supreme Gourd nominee this morning. The President sent an

187
00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,960
Speaker 1: email to supporters with the subject line, I've made my decision.

188
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,160
Speaker 1: Republicans in the Senate have said they will not consider

189
00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,839
Speaker 1: the president's nominee in an election year. Bloomberg Radio will

190
00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:17,440
Speaker 1: carry the President's decision live this morning at eleven a m. Florida, Illinois, Ohio,

191
00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,480
Speaker 1: and North Carolina got behind Hillary Clinton and yesterday's Democratic

192
00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,920
Speaker 1: presidential primary, while Missouri remains too close to call for

193
00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 1: both the Democrats and the Republicans. Donald Trump won Florida,

194
00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:33,199
Speaker 1: Illinois and North Carolina John Kasiguin, Ohio, where he is governor.

195
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,800
Speaker 1: Rescuers are still searching today for bodies or survivors, and

196
00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,400
Speaker 1: a mosque in Nigeria attacked by two female suicide bombers.

197
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:44,080
Speaker 1: The attack during dawn prayer skilled at least twenty two people.

198
00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,800
Speaker 1: Global news twenty four hours a day, powered by our

199
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 1: two hundred journalists more than one hundred fifty news bureaus

200
00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,280
Speaker 1: from around the world. On Michael bar Mike, Tom Michael,

201
00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 1: thanks so much on FED Day. Markets exceptionally quiet right now.

202
00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,360
Speaker 1: West Texas up seventy six and thirty seven eleven our

203
00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:06,520
Speaker 1: FED Day coverage this afternoon one pm. The news update

204
00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:08,280
Speaker 1: was brought to you by Sector Spider et S one

205
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:09,840
Speaker 1: by a single stock when you can invest in the

206
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,600
Speaker 1: entire sector of visit sector s PDRs dot com or

207
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,040
Speaker 1: call one eight six six Sector e t S