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Speaker 1: Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak for Wednesday, October twelve, two. Coming up the shower,

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Speaker 1: President Biden says a slight recession is possible in the US.

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Speaker 1: We're a tough talk from the FED on fighting inflation.

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Speaker 1: We speak with Cleveland Fed President Lorettamester. The Bank of

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Speaker 1: England confirms it will end emergency bond buying on Friday,

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Speaker 1: and Intel plans thousands of job cuts. New Jersey says

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Speaker 1: New York City's congestion pricing charts threatened, Sport Authority revenue

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Speaker 1: plus NASA successfully moves an asteroid off its over. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael barn Moore Ahead. I'm John Stash Howard Sports Game

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Speaker 1: one to the Yankees day beat Cleveland at the state

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Speaker 1: of the End of the Rangers one there sees it opener.

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Speaker 1: That's all stred ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak. On Bloomberg he

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Speaker 1: levened three on New York Bloomberg ninety nine one, Washington

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Speaker 1: d C Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston Bloomberg nine

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Speaker 1: sixties and Francisco Sirius XM one nine team and around

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Speaker 1: the World Old on Bloomberg Radio Dot com and via

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. And good morning. I'm Tar at Moscow.

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Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hagar. Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you by

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Speaker 1: se I. Imagine your asset management firms operational infrastructure as

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Speaker 1: a competitive advantage. Let s e I show you how

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Speaker 1: at se I C dot com, slash, I M S

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Speaker 1: and U S Dock Index futures are higher this morning.

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Speaker 1: It's five o one on Wall Street and we checked

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Speaker 1: the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: s and P Future is up seventeen points down, futures

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Speaker 1: of a hundred ten nasdack Future is up sixty eight

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Speaker 1: and the ten year treasury of five thirty seconds. You

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Speaker 1: have three point nine two per cent at yield on

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Speaker 1: the two years at four point to nine percent, and

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Speaker 1: I'm ex screwed. Oil is down two tenths of a percent. Nathan.

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Speaker 1: All right, Karen, we'll have more on the markets in

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Speaker 1: a minute. But first, President Biden is weighing in on

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Speaker 1: the economy. As investors, c e O S and economists

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Speaker 1: talk about a possible recession, so is the President. I

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Speaker 1: don't think there will be your recession if it is

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Speaker 1: it will be a very procession, that is will move

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Speaker 1: down slightly. Well, look, think about what's happened. We have

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Speaker 1: done more with in a better position than any other

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Speaker 1: major country in the world. In an interview with CNN

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Speaker 1: s Jake Tapper, the President also voiced anger with Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia and oil production cuts from OPEC. Plus he's accusing

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Speaker 1: the Kingdom of aligning itself with Russia and vows to

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Speaker 1: engage with lawmakers to punish ri Odd, there's going to

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Speaker 1: be some consequences for what they've done with Russia. What

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Speaker 1: kind of consequences, Venenda says, suspend all arms sales? Is

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Speaker 1: that something you'd consider. I'm not going to get into

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Speaker 1: what i'd considering what I'm having mind, but there will

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Speaker 1: be There will be consequences, the President invite and suggests

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Speaker 1: those consequences likely will not come until after next month's

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Speaker 1: mid term elections. Well, tough talk on inflation continues from

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Speaker 1: the fat Nathan. The latest waging in is Cleveland Fed

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Speaker 1: President Loretta Master, and she tells us the bank is

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Speaker 1: definitely not done raising rates. The real issue is we

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Speaker 1: need to do more. We have not seen inflation moved

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Speaker 1: back down um and we need to see that because

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Speaker 1: leaving inflation where it is, if it continues, there's a

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Speaker 1: higher chance that it does become embedded in the economy.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Fed, President of the Reddemester, made the comments in

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Speaker 1: an interview with Bloomberg's caathling Hey. Stay tuned for more

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Speaker 1: of that conversation coming up shortly on Bloomberg Daybreak. The

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Speaker 1: FEDS still has its critics out there. Karen including Muhammad

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Speaker 1: al Arian, the Alliance chief economic advisor and Bloomberg opinion columnists,

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Speaker 1: says aggressive tightening by the Central Bank will not only

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Speaker 1: damage the U s economy, but also the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world. This is going to be a reminder a

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Speaker 1: little bit of October without an an eight, when people

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Speaker 1: gather in Washington and realize we have a global problem

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Speaker 1: and it needs global global solution. Muhammad al Aria made

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Speaker 1: those comments to Jonathan Farow on Bloomberg Surveillance Ketch, the

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Speaker 1: program weekdays at seven am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio and Television. Coming up to day, Nathan, we get

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Speaker 1: the first is several key economic readings this week. Let's

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Speaker 1: get the details from Bloomberg Economics. Corresponded Michael McKee. The

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Speaker 1: world is watching the US Federal Reserve raising rates to

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Speaker 1: fight inflation has an impact on markets everywhere, so this

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Speaker 1: week's inflation reports are key for markets. Wednesday, the U

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Speaker 1: S reports on producer prices. The bad News Economist forecast

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Speaker 1: factory gate prices rose last month. Also Wednesday, the FED

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Speaker 1: releases the minutes of its September twenty one meeting. Investors

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Speaker 1: will parse those for clues to how fast the central

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Speaker 1: Bank thinks inflation will come down, which may influence how

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Speaker 1: high rates will go and for how long. Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak, All right, Mike, thanks staring. Inflation and higher

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Speaker 1: interest rates have seen yields rise, and stocks are trading

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Speaker 1: at their lowest levels in almost two years. Still, Morgan Stanley,

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Speaker 1: chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson says it could be

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Speaker 1: too early to call a bottom. I think the bomb

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Speaker 1: market is probably there. Uh and but unfortunately, kind of

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Speaker 1: like stocks, the bomb market used to be told by

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Speaker 1: the Fed that they're done right, And that's just the

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Speaker 1: dance we're in right now. It's the hardest part of

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Speaker 1: the cycle to trade. We think we know we're going

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Speaker 1: in equities. We think deals are probably flows to topping

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Speaker 1: We've got to go to the earnings revision still, which

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Speaker 1: is why you can't see that that starts about Stanley.

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Speaker 1: Chief US secuity strategist Mike Wilson says inventory, labor costs

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Speaker 1: and other latent expenses are wreaking havoc on company cash

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Speaker 1: flow well in Europe. This morning, Nathan questions continue to

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Speaker 1: swirl over whether the Bank of England will and its

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Speaker 1: emergency bond buying program on Friday, and we go live

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Speaker 1: to Lineing and get the latest with Bloomberg's un parts.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, you Win, Good morning Karen and Nathan. It

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Speaker 1: has been a rocky few hours of watches of UK

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Speaker 1: assets this morning, but by giving them now can firm

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Speaker 1: it will end its emergency bond buying program this Friday.

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Speaker 1: That was after an earlier Financial Times report that the

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Speaker 1: bank had told lenders in private there could be an extension.

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Speaker 1: UK GDP meanwhile, unexpectedly shrinking in August for the second

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Speaker 1: time in three months, the north point three percent drop

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Speaker 1: in output driven by a sharp decline in manufacturing, raising

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Speaker 1: the possibility of the country is now in a recession.

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Speaker 1: In London, I'm you and part spin Bog day break.

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Speaker 1: Thanks you and back here in the U s A.

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Speaker 1: Big companies looking at a big red action in head count.

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Speaker 1: It looks like Intel could be slashing jobs in an

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Speaker 1: effort to cut costs. We get more from Bloomberg's Doug Krisner.

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Speaker 1: We're told the job cuts will likely number in the

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Speaker 1: thousands and will be announced as early as next month.

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Speaker 1: Some divisions, including sales and marketing, could see cuts, affecting

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Speaker 1: about twenty percent of staff. As of July, Intel had

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Speaker 1: a hundred thirteen thousand, seven hundred employees. The company is

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Speaker 1: facing a steep decline in demand for PC processors. Its

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Speaker 1: main businesses struggled to win back market share lost to

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Speaker 1: rivals like Advanced micro Devices. In July, Intel said two

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Speaker 1: sales would be about eleven billion dollars lower than previously forecast.

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Speaker 1: In New York, I'm Doug Prisner, Bloomberg Daybreak, All right, Doug,

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Speaker 1: thank you. And in Europe this morning, Shares a credit

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Speaker 1: sueeze or down three percent. Sources say that Justice Department

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Speaker 1: is investigating whether the Swiss Lander continue to help US

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Speaker 1: clients hide assets from authorities. The Bank, the Bank pain A.

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Speaker 1: The bank paid rather a multibillion dollar fee over a

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Speaker 1: similar issue. Eight years ago had pledge to tackle the issue.

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Speaker 1: Al Right. Futures right now moving higher. Karin SMP futures

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Speaker 1: are up twenty two points, Stown futures up and Nastack

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Speaker 1: futures are higher by eighty one points. The tenure treasury

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Speaker 1: is up five thirty seconds. The yield on the benchmark

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Speaker 1: three point nine. Local headlines and a check of sports

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Speaker 1: up next. This is Bloomberg at south five oh seven

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street ward fifty eight degrees in Central Park.

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Speaker 1: Got an accident on the southbound New Jersey Turnpike truck

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Speaker 1: lanes spikes at third team. Details coming up in traffic.

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Speaker 1: First Michael Barr with more on what's going on in

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Speaker 1: New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan.

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Speaker 1: New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has put up another potential

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Speaker 1: hurt older Block Manhattan traffic congestion pricing with an inquiry

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Speaker 1: into the potential revenue hit to the Port Authority of

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Speaker 1: New York and New Jersey. Murphy says the plan would

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Speaker 1: cut bridge and tunnel toll collections. Murphy wrote the comment

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Speaker 1: to Port Authority Executive Director Richard Cotton, and in October

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Speaker 1: eleventh letter obtained by Blueberg News. He says any reduction

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Speaker 1: in the Port Authority capital plan because of congestion pricing

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Speaker 1: should not come at the expense of any New Jersey projects.

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Speaker 1: The letter is Murphy's latest attempt to quash the congestion

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Speaker 1: pricing plan to raise about a billion dollars annually for

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Speaker 1: the m t A or at least the land On

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Speaker 1: the campaign trail, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says the

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Speaker 1: party will stick with Herschel Walker as their GOP candidate

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Speaker 1: for Senate in Georgia. Walker told ABC he denies a

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Speaker 1: woman's claims that the former NFL star once urged her

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Speaker 1: to have an abortion. I know nothing about an abortion.

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Speaker 1: I knew us a lie and I said it was

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Speaker 1: a lie, and I just move on. Walker's campaign is

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Speaker 1: rocked by allegations that he reimbursed an ex girlfriend for

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Speaker 1: an abortion. In two thousand nine, New York City Mayor

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Speaker 1: Eric Adams signed legislation barring concealed guns both legal and illegal,

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Speaker 1: from Times Square. Mayor Eric Adams says it's essential for

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Speaker 1: the city to safeguard the rights of the tourists and

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Speaker 1: visits who could be coming through the area looking for

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Speaker 1: save fund on their trips to the city. We are

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Speaker 1: projected to receive fifties six million tourists UH in this city.

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Speaker 1: Many of them come through Times Square has become a

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Speaker 1: signature of this city, and we want to make sure

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Speaker 1: that this saved. The decision comes following the summer's Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court decision or to overturn the state's law requiring a

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Speaker 1: license to carry concealed weapons in public places. NASA says

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Speaker 1: the dark spacecraft that crashed into a small harmless asteroid

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Speaker 1: two weeks ago has succeeded in shifting the space rocks orbit.

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Speaker 1: NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. Now the team is confirmed that

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Speaker 1: the spacecraft's impact altered demorphous orbit around Didimos by thirty

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Speaker 1: two minutes. NASA's Bill Nelson. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day on air and on Bloomberg quick Take, powered

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Speaker 1: by more than twenty seven hundred journalists analysts in more

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Speaker 1: than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, and this

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Speaker 1: is bloom Burg. Neither all right, Michael, Thank you, Almost

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Speaker 1: five ten on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg Sports Update.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, John Sten Sharn, Morning eighth in the Yankees

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Speaker 1: signed Garrett Cole to win big games in October didn't

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Speaker 1: happen last year. He got roughed up in a one

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Speaker 1: game playoff in Boston. But Cole pitched like an ace

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Speaker 1: last night at the Stadium in six and a third,

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Speaker 1: allowed just one run, struck at eighth. The bullpen of

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Speaker 1: question mark heading to the postseason. It did its job,

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Speaker 1: getting the last eight out. Yankees took Game one from

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Speaker 1: Cleveland four to one, home runs for Harrison Bader his

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Speaker 1: first ever in Prince Ritz and then Anthony Rizzo along

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Speaker 1: to run shot. Game two scheduled for tomorrow night, although

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Speaker 1: rain is in the fourthcast. High drama on the other

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Speaker 1: American League series. Seattle was coming off a win in

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Speaker 1: Toronto where the Mariners came back from an eight to

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Speaker 1: one defensit. This time they had the lead they got

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Speaker 1: to justin Verlander. In Houston, they led Ford and nothing

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Speaker 1: later seven to three. Seattle was one out from victory

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Speaker 1: the O one and Alberis built it hold run over

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Speaker 1: the Vision series. Baby Amy to call used seven. Dodgers

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Speaker 1: beat the Padres in l A five to three. The

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Speaker 1: Phillies and the Surprise took Game one in Atlanta seven

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Speaker 1: to six. Opendy night for the Rangers. Little payback on

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, who house to them four months ago in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs at to go to Meeking's manage sports shorthanded,

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Speaker 1: then on the power play Blue Shirts wants me to walk.

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Speaker 1: Giants are back from London, but their punter is not.

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Speaker 1: Jamie Gallant is a native of Scotland, came to live

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Speaker 1: in the US while in high school. He has stuck

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Speaker 1: in England with a visa issue. Giants expect him back

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Speaker 1: in time to punt on Sunday against Baldwin. John Stash

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Sports All right, John, thank USMP futures are

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Speaker 1: now at plenty two points down, futures up a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty one, nestack futures up eighty six points ten, Your

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Speaker 1: treasuries up four thirty seconds, the yield three point nine

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Speaker 1: to per cent. Cleveland fed President low Read Amester next

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Speaker 1: on the path ahead for the Central Bank. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three or weather. Morning sun will be

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Speaker 1: followed by increasing clouds this afternoon and a high year

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Speaker 1: seventy degrees rain Tomorrow breezy as well with the high

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Speaker 1: in year seventy back in the sunshine on Friday. Right

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Speaker 1: now eight in Central Park markets, headlines and breaking news

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business and at Bloomberg Quick Take. This is a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Karen Moscow. And futures this

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Speaker 1: morning are higher. The pound is trimming games after the

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Speaker 1: Bank of England confirmed it will end its emergency bond

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Speaker 1: buying program on Friday. And we checked the markets every

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Speaker 1: fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg Right now,

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Speaker 1: SMP futures are up twenty seven points down, futures of

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Speaker 1: a D eighty and nasday features up. The decks in

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Speaker 1: Germany is at three tenths of a percent, the cap

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Speaker 1: in Paris up about half percent, and the foot See

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Speaker 1: one hundred up a third of up percent. The n

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Speaker 1: K to twenty five in Japan little change today with

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Speaker 1: the Hank Sing in Hong Kong fell about eight tenths

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Speaker 1: of uppercent. Can your treasury up six thirty seconds, you'll

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Speaker 1: three point nine two percent. The yield on the two

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Speaker 1: year four point to eight percent. NIMEX screwed oil is

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Speaker 1: up tenth of a percent or eleven cents at eighty

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Speaker 1: nine dollars forty seven cents of barrel comes goal down

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Speaker 1: about six tenths of upper cent or nine dollars forty

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Speaker 1: cents at sixteen seventy six seventy announce the euro point

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Speaker 1: nine seven against the dollar, the British found one point

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Speaker 1: one zero to eight and the end one forty six

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Speaker 1: point four zero. And looking at a bitcoin, it's up

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Speaker 1: about three quarters of a percent and nineteen thousand, one

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Speaker 1: hundred sixty dollars today. We do have a reading on

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Speaker 1: inflation to lookout for the Producer Price Index thirty Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Time. Then at two is the minutes from the

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Speaker 1: FEDS the latest meeting. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now

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Speaker 1: here's Michael Barr with Moore on what's going on around

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Speaker 1: the world. Michael, good morning, Good morning, Karen. President Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden voiced his fury with Audi Arabia over OPEC oil

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Speaker 1: production cuts Tuesday, accusing the kingdom of allying itself with

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Speaker 1: Russia and vowing to engage with US lawmakers clamoring to

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Speaker 1: punish Riad. Biden, speaking to CNN, says there's going to

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Speaker 1: be some consequences for what they've done with Russia. The

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court will not consider restricting abortion further after its

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Speaker 1: June ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, at least for now.

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Speaker 1: The conservative leaning Court decline yesterday to hear a case

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Speaker 1: they would have granted constitutional rights to embryos and fetuses.

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Speaker 1: In baseball, the Yankees one game one of their ads

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Speaker 1: against the Guardians for one. In hockey, the Rangers won

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Speaker 1: their season opener. Global News twenty four hours a day

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Speaker 1: on air and on Bloomberg quick Take, powered by more

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Speaker 1: than twenty seven d journalists and analysts in more than

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Speaker 1: one hundred twenty countries. How Michael Barr And this is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg NACOLN. Thanks Michael. It's almost five twenty on Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. Chatter from the Fed continues to suggest the

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Speaker 1: central Bank will continue viking rates aggressively. Cleveland Fed President

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Speaker 1: Loretta Mester says more work needs to be done to

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Speaker 1: slow inflation. It's an indication she thinks interest rates need

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Speaker 1: to be in restrictive territory. Mester sat down for an

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Speaker 1: interview with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes. They also discussed shrinking the

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Speaker 1: FEDS massive balance sheet. Let's take a list of to

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Speaker 1: that conversation. Now, you haven't made up your mind yet

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Speaker 1: about fifty verse seventy five. Whereas a lot of economists

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Speaker 1: and market participants are sure that the strong labor market

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Speaker 1: not cooling down means seventy five. You also said that

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Speaker 1: you can't let inflation remain so high, you need to

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Speaker 1: bring it down quickly. So why would you even doubt

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Speaker 1: the seventy five basis point move that seems to consistent. Now,

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Speaker 1: I just want to make sure that we have all

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Speaker 1: the data before I go into that meeting and hear

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Speaker 1: what my colleagues are staying around the table. I think

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Speaker 1: the real issue is we need to do more. We

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Speaker 1: have not seen inflation move back down um, and we

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Speaker 1: need to see that because leaving inflation where it is,

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Speaker 1: if it continues, there's a higher chance that it does

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Speaker 1: become embedded in the economy and affecting pricing decisions of

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Speaker 1: firms and also getting into the psyche of households and

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Speaker 1: then has long term negative connotations for the economy. So

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Speaker 1: again this is a question. We know that it's time

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Speaker 1: to continue on and persevere and bringing the funds right up.

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Speaker 1: We know that we're going to have to keep it

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Speaker 1: there for a time until we see inflation beginning to

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Speaker 1: come back down, because we really want to make sure

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Speaker 1: it's on the sustainable downward paths of two. So if

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Speaker 1: you remember the dot plot in the median path from

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Speaker 1: the last sep in September, we're very much aligned in

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Speaker 1: terms of where we think policy needs to get today. Okay, Well,

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Speaker 1: in fact, after three d basis points of rate hikes. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, it seems that the terminal rate want I

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Speaker 1: ask you, does it look like maybe it's going to

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Speaker 1: end up having to be higher than you thought? Uh?

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Speaker 1: You have any confidence now? And even knowing what the

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Speaker 1: terminal it's going to be, people many people have talked

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Speaker 1: about something as high as five percent. Well, we have

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Speaker 1: to wait until we see how the economy evolves. This

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Speaker 1: is the assessment process that we're going to be going through,

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Speaker 1: you know the end of this year and into next year,

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Speaker 1: is we want to basically get inflation on this downward path. Right.

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Speaker 1: Labor markets continue to be very strong. We have seen

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Speaker 1: some moderation there, We have seen some moderation on the

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Speaker 1: product side of the economy, and it really is now

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Speaker 1: we're going to calibrate going forward. But right now the

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Speaker 1: funds rate is just approaching a neutral of funds rate,

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Speaker 1: and we really need to get it above neutral for

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Speaker 1: a time if we want to put inflation on the

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Speaker 1: doward path. And we do so again, we're you know,

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Speaker 1: we put out the dot pots, which give our best

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Speaker 1: estimate at the moment of what's appropriate policy. But we're

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Speaker 1: going to be doing this assessment of how fast is

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Speaker 1: deman moderating, how quickly is you know, supply maybe picking

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Speaker 1: up and our price pressure is coming down, and that

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Speaker 1: will be the job as we go forward in this

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Speaker 1: challenging time. Well, you know, the message from the Fed

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Speaker 1: seems to be all the comments lately that the idea

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Speaker 1: is to move quickly, you know front we of the

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Speaker 1: rate hikes, uh, you know, get to four and a

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Speaker 1: half to four and three quarters and then see how

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Speaker 1: that's affecting inflation. But to clarify, does this mean that

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Speaker 1: once you get to that point when you think you're

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Speaker 1: at neutral, when it's four and a half to four

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Speaker 1: and three quarters, that you're going to pause even with

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Speaker 1: the funds rate well below the rate of inflation, because

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Speaker 1: that's where it's likely going to be right, Well, I

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Speaker 1: think we're going to see inflation come down next year.

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Speaker 1: So when I'm thinking about, you know, how far above

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Speaker 1: a neutral rate do we have to go, and I

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Speaker 1: do think we're going to have to be in restricted territory. Right. Remember,

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Speaker 1: as inflation comes down, right, we're becoming more restrictive. So again,

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Speaker 1: this is the assessment we have to do. So the

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Speaker 1: I think the appropriate path is we continue to raise

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Speaker 1: rates a bit more, so we get it up to

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Speaker 1: that level where we're positive in terms of the real

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Speaker 1: funds rate based on expectant inflation over the next year.

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Speaker 1: Then we waited assess data coming in, but not only

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Speaker 1: the backward looking data right in the LAG data, but

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Speaker 1: also the information we're getting from the street in terms

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Speaker 1: of main street right, real consumers, real households, real businesses

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Speaker 1: telling us how they're thinking about the economy. And that

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Speaker 1: was Cleveland FED President Laurentamester speaking with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes.

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Speaker 1: And the FED gets more data to digest this week,

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Speaker 1: starting today with inflation data that's actually today and tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: We get ratings on producer prices today than the key

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Speaker 1: data on consumer prices Thursday, then the week wraps up

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Speaker 1: with retail sales and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

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Speaker 1: Those both come out on Friday. Looking ahead to the

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Speaker 1: market open this morning, futures are moving higher. We have

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Speaker 1: SMP futures up twenty nine points, staff futures up and

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Speaker 1: NASDAC futures are higher by a hundred nine points. The

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Speaker 1: tenure treasury is up six thirty seconds, the yield three

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Speaker 1: point nine to p sent You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh weather. Morning sun will be followed

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Speaker 1: by increasing afternoon clowns behind your seventy degrees rain and

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Speaker 1: a breeze tomorrow with the high near seventy upper sixties

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Speaker 1: Friday with a mostly sunny sky fifty eight degrees. Right now,

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Speaker 1: broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg E loving freed to Washington, d C, Bloomberg N

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Speaker 1: one to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg N sixty to the country, Sirius XM H one

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Speaker 1: nine team and around the globe the Bloomberg Business in

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five

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Speaker 1: thirty on Wall Straight. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and

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Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow or just about four hours away from

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Speaker 1: the open of US trading. Let's get you up to

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Speaker 1: date of the news. You need to know what this

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Speaker 1: our first up. President Biden weighs in on the economy

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Speaker 1: and an interview with CNN. The President faced questions about

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Speaker 1: a possible contraction and growth. I don't think there will

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Speaker 1: be a recession. If it is, it will be a

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Speaker 1: very slight recession, that is, will move down slightly. President

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Speaker 1: Biden said the US economy is resilient enough to write

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Speaker 1: out any economic turbulence. He also says the American people

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Speaker 1: do not need to prepare for a recession. We'll talk

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Speaker 1: talk on inflation. Continues from the FED care and Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: FED President Loretta Mester says the Central Bank is not

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Speaker 1: done raising rates and that she sees no reason to

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Speaker 1: alter the central banks balance sheet runoff plan. I think

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Speaker 1: we want to stick to that plan because the markets

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Speaker 1: have understood the plan. They see it, they understand it.

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Speaker 1: We did very well. I think broadcasts what we're planning

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Speaker 1: to do that implement in it. Cleveland FED President Loretta

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Speaker 1: Mester made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes.

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Speaker 1: Catch the full conversation on the Bloomberg terminal and at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Well, the FED still has its critics

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Speaker 1: out there. Nathan, including Muhammadhiarium, the Alliance chief economic visor

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Speaker 1: and Bloomberg opinion columnists, says the feds aggressive tightening could

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Speaker 1: lead to a global slowdown. Central banks and governments have

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Speaker 1: to be very aware that we are getting closer situation

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Speaker 1: with financial and stability is the tail that waxed the

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Speaker 1: dog of the economy. And Muhammadhalaria and made the comments

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Surveillance heard weekdays at seven am Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and Television. We'll going up today, Karen. We

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Speaker 1: get some key economic data this morning. The latest Producer

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Speaker 1: Price Index comes out at eight thirty Wall Street time.

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Speaker 1: We get minutes from the Fed at two PM. Stick

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Radio and television for complete coverage maintime, Nathan,

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Speaker 1: yields are rising in stocks are trading at their lowest

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Speaker 1: levels in almost two years. Still, Morgan Stanley, chief US

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Speaker 1: equity strategist Mike Wilson says it's too early to call

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Speaker 1: a bottom. I don't want to get two bolish here

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Speaker 1: because people then won't construe my words and say, hey,

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Speaker 1: you know, here's time to go. And that's now what

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Speaker 1: we're saying. We're saying there's still you know, last couple

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Speaker 1: of endings of this bear market could be quite painful,

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Speaker 1: but you've got to be ready for when that price

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Speaker 1: gets through an attractive level. Marian Stanley, chief US equity

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Speaker 1: strate it just Mike Wilson says, inventory, labor costs and

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Speaker 1: other latent expenses are raking havoc on company cash flow,

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Speaker 1: and in corporate news today, caring a big companies looking

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Speaker 1: at a major head count reduction. Sources say Intel is

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Speaker 1: planning thousands of job cuts to lower costs and cope

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00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: with a sputtering personal computer market. Oh sorry, SMP futures

433
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: right now are down thirty two points. Staff futures down.

434
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 1: Tune at eighteen and as that futures are lower by

435
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: a hundred sixteen points ten, your treasuries up four thirty seconds.

436
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: Heal three point nine straight at your latest local headlines

437
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 1: in the check of sports, this is Sploomberg and Wall

438
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 1: Street Word fifty eight degrees in Central Park. Still got

439
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 1: some lingering road construction. We'll tell you about it shortly.

440
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 1: First Michael Barr with what else is going on in

441
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: New York and around the world. Michael, thank you very much.

442
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 1: Nathan New Jersey says traffic congestion pricing in Manhattan threatened

443
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: Support Authority revenue. Jersey Governor Phil Murphy says any reduction

444
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: in the Port Authority capital plan because of congestion pricing

445
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: should not come at the expense of any new Jersey projects.

446
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 1: Murphy's comments came and in October eleventh letter to Port

447
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: Authority Executive Director Richard Cotton, obtained by Bloomberg News top

448
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: Biden administration officials are voicing their fury with Saudi Arabia

449
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 1: over OPEC production cuts. Bloomberg's Aid Baxter reports the administration

450
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: says there will be severe consequences. They are saying the

451
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: administration is undertaking a sweeping evaluation of its relationship, including

452
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 1: modifying agreements. State Department spokesman that Price, saying that cuts

453
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 1: of benefit of Russia, but it certain certainly serves the

454
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: shorter term interests of countries like Russia, a country that

455
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 1: stands to gain at least in the near term from

456
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: elevated oil prices. The administration says it may ask Congress

457
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 1: to get involved. In San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg

458
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: day Break, New York Mayor Eric Adams signed into law

459
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 1: a new concealed carry measure. It means Times Square officially

460
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: becomes a gun free zone, and we're going to make

461
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: sure we created a vin i'm it with those who

462
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: visit the city such as Times Square won't have to

463
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: be paralyzed with the fear of knowing that someone is

464
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 1: carrying in a gun in this area. The legislation is

465
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 1: based on a New York state law that is being

466
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: challenged in court. NASA says the dark spacecraft that crashed

467
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: into a small, harmless asteroid two weeks ago has succeeded

468
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 1: in shifting the space rocks orbit. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson

469
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: NASA successfully crashed a refrigerator sized spacecraft into the asteroid

470
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: de Morphus, seven million miles from Earth. NASA's Bill Nelson

471
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day on air and

472
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than seven d journalists

473
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: analyist more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barren this

474
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Na the Power of Science. Michael on Wall

475
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: streets up with the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stenshaw.

476
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 1: All right, Nathan October baseball in the Bronx. Garrett Cole's

477
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: first four Yankee postseason start were all on the road

478
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: at the Stadium. He got a big ovation when he

479
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: came out seventh in and one out, one on and

480
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: the Yankees leading Cleveland four to one. The most comfortable

481
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: time to acknowledge the crowd. But I certainly felt it,

482
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 1: um and appreciated it. And um, I thought they were

483
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: in every pitch tonight, and um, what a wonderful experience

484
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: to have him behind us Yanks one four to one

485
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: home run for Harrison Bata and Anthony Rizzo. Key moment

486
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: came third inning after a Stephen Kwan homer off of Cole.

487
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 1: The Guardians had the bases loaded one out, Cole got

488
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: out of it. Yanks also got back to back defensive

489
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: gems in the fourth, first and as Waldo Cabrera catch

490
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 1: in left field and then on a hot smash the

491
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 1: third baseman Josh Donaldson. Game two scheduled for Tomorrow night,

492
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: weather permitting. Houston down seven three eighth innings came back

493
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 1: stunned Seattle eight seven on a walk off three one

494
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,679
Speaker 1: homer with two outs on the bottom the night by

495
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: your alba As the Dodgers beat San Diego five to three.

496
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: The Phillies hung on to win seven six in Atlanta.

497
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: The Phil's Nearly Blue a seven one League maker's avantage

498
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 1: at a big part of the Rangers playoff run last season,

499
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 1: a run that was ended by Sampa Bay opening night

500
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: at the Gardens, A Banta Dad scored shorthanded second period

501
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 1: on the power play in the third. The Rangers beat

502
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: the Lightning three to one. Nixon nets both with preseason

503
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 1: games on the road tonight. The NFL says it will

504
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: consider changes to the roughing the faster penalty, but not

505
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,479
Speaker 1: until after the season. There were two very questionable calls

506
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: in be five. Bloomberg Sports thanks seven on Wall Street

507
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: time for the Tri State Business Report. Here's Bloomberg Scott

508
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 1: Carr Sample will expanded Smart Labs facility in Piscataway, New Jersey,

509
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: into a state of the art one forty thousand square

510
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 1: foot laboratory and bio repository. The facility will be one

511
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: of the largest of its kind in the world. Constructions

512
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 1: expected to be completed by early three The musical theater

513
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: production company League Productions has just renewed its lease in

514
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: New York's Hell's Kitchen. Under the terms of their twelve

515
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: hundred square foot space and the ninth to have Film

516
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 1: Center building will remain the company's home for the next

517
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: three years. A group of business leaders in Hartford, Connecticut,

518
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: are putting together a working group to plan out future

519
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 1: uses for an increasing amount of vacant office space in

520
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 1: the city. Head of the Metro Hartford Alliance, David Griggs,

521
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: says the first order of business will be to get

522
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 1: the largest communities to agree it is a regional problem.

523
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: One tactic might be to convinced employers of the need

524
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 1: to return workers to centralized offices. That's the Bloomberg Tri

525
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: State Business Report. I'm Scott Carr. Thank you, Scott eight

526
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: on Wall Street. Bloomberg Radio is on the air from

527
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: San Francisco to New York, London to Hong Kong. Let's

528
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: check in with our global news team for some of

529
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: the top stories heard on our three hundred affiliate radio

530
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: stations around the world. I'm Steve podaskon K and X

531
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles. We're talking about workers on an Amazon

532
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: warehouse in southern California filing you for work to hold

533
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: a union election. Um Courney Donahoan kat r h in Houston.

534
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: Timond Back Energy is buying Firebird Energy as it looks

535
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: to grow in the Permian Basin. I'm Genus Servetti and

536
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: for KCBS in San Francisco. I'm talking about Intel planning

537
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 1: major job cuts. I'm Kawain Heatkil on Bloomberg DAV Digital

538
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: Radio in London. Sticking to Friday, the Bank of England

539
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: confirms that it will wrap off its emergency guilt purchase

540
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: at the end of this week. I'm Scott Carr on

541
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: w d c H in Washington. I'm reporting on more

542
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: plans for more data centers in northern Virginia. And those

543
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 1: are some of the stories. Are hundred Bloomberg journalists and

544
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: analysts are working on this morning around the world. It's

545
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: five thirty nine on Wall Street. The following is an

546
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: editorial from Bloomberg Opinion List. Editorial was written by the

547
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Editorial Board. By early next year, the US government

548
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 1: will likely run out of money to pay for COVID

549
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: nineteen vaccines tests and treatments. Although President Joe Biden has

550
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: re list did more support from Congress, Republicans are in

551
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: no mood to continue spending on the pandemic. Shifting more

552
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: costs to the private sector makes sense, but some level

553
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 1: of government funding is still necessary. Lawmakers should agree on

554
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: a more limited approach that ensures the US is still

555
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: prepared to fight the next pandemic. That means, for example,

556
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: that Congress should continue to authorize funding for basic research,

557
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: the development of new vaccines and therapeutics, and manufacturing capacity

558
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: in ways big and small. The US is moving on

559
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 1: from COVID with a bit of foresight, the federal government

560
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: should be able to manage this transition while keeping Americans safe.

561
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: This editorial was written by the Bloomberg Editorial Board. For

562
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 1: more Bloomberg opinion, please go to Bloomberg dot com, slash

563
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: Opinion or O P I n go on the Bloomberg terminal.

564
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: This has been Bloomberg opinion, and you can hear Bloomberg

565
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: opinion editorials every weekday. At this time, term Old customers

566
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: can read more at O P I n go. Futures

567
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: moving higher this morning, we have SMP futures up thirty

568
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: one points down futures up tune or twelve Nastack futures

569
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: are higher by a hundred fifteen points. We'll talk about

570
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,719
Speaker 1: this market next with Joe Quinlan, chief market strategist at

571
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: Meryl and Bank of America Private Bank. This is Bloomberg

572
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh weather morning, sun, increasing clouds this

573
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: afternoon with the high near seventy degrees, raining, a breeze

574
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 1: tomorrow with the high near seventy once again upper sixties,

575
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 1: mostly sunny by Friday. Right now fifty eight in Central

576
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: Park markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a

577
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: day at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business at and

578
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Quick Tape. He's a Bloomberg Business Flash and

579
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow and this flash brought to you by

580
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: s C. I said managers don't get a results at

581
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: are off the charts when their solutions are off the shelf.

582
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: And how sci is operating platform can turn infrastructure into

583
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: a competitive advantage at se i C dot com slash

584
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: Heck futures this morning are higher, and we checked the

585
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg

586
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: s and p future is up twenty eight points down,

587
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 1: futures have a hundred eighty four and nowsdays futures have

588
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 1: one hundred five. The decks in Germany's up half percent,

589
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: Pennier treasury up one thirty second deal three point nine

590
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: four percent, and the yield on the two year four

591
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: point to eight percent. Nimex screwed oil is up to

592
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: tenths per center nineteen cents at eighty nine dollars fifty

593
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 1: one cents a barrel. Comics gold is down six tenths

594
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: per cent or nine dollars seventy cents at sixteen seventy

595
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: six thirty announced the euro point nine seven oh four

596
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: against the dollar, British found one point one zero five

597
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: five and the end one forty six point three nine

598
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 1: and Bitcoin this morning up eight tens of percent at

599
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: nineteen thousand, one hundred seventy dollars. As a Bloomberg business flash,

600
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: now here's muchael Bar with more on what's going on

601
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: around the world. Muggel Paren thank you very much. Ukraine

602
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: Southern Operational Command says its forces have recaptured five settlements

603
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: in the Kirson region. The settlements are in one of

604
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: the four regions recently illegally annexed by Russia. Meanwhile, Russia

605
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: says it has detained five Russians and three citizens of

606
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: Ukraine and our media over the last week bridge explosion,

607
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: linking it to Crimeria Caremea anti government protests continuing cities

608
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: and towns and around for fourth week. Meanwhile, tens of

609
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: thousands of Iranians living abroad have marched on the streets

610
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 1: of Europe over the death of a woman who was

611
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: arrested by the so called morality police about her job.

612
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: In baseball, the Yankees one game one of their a

613
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: lbs against the Guardians for one. In hockey, the Rangers

614
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: when their season opener against the Lightning three one. Global

615
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day on air and on

616
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven dred journalists

617
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael barn

618
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg NA. Thanks Michael. It's five forty nine

619
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: on Wall Street Life from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio.

620
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, and we're joined now by Joe Quinlan,

621
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: head of c I O Market Strategy at Merylan Bank

622
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: of America Private Bank as we watch a little bit

623
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: of a lift in the futures contracts this morning, Joe,

624
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: after five straight losing sessions. Is this the bottom or

625
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 1: is this a dead cat? I'm more the latter, Nathan, Unfortunately,

626
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: I would yet people know that. So Fed's got a

627
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: lot of work to do. Global recession in front of us,

628
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: So more of a dead cap bounced than bottom. Although

629
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 1: we've heard of, as you mentioned, yet more hawkish talk

630
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,439
Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve. Although we did get or maybe

631
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: I'm going too far here by saying that maybe we

632
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 1: saw a little bit of a crack from Vice chair

633
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: Lyle Brainer, you know, just saying there should be some

634
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: caution when it comes to the FED going too far

635
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: on interest rates. What's your view on where the Fed's

636
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 1: going right now? Well, that was interesting to hearing the

637
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,919
Speaker 1: comments from from the chair vice chair in the sense

638
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: that maybe a little more dubblish. But I think I

639
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: think the FED is feeling the heat when it comes

640
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 1: the recession call. A lot of the recession is coming,

641
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 1: maybe to fetch back off, but we're still all the

642
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 1: opinion that we're doing seventy five basis points in November,

643
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: and maybe we start to back off from but we're

644
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: not there yet. So the FEDS shifting. I wouldn't say

645
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: it's a big shift, but the tone is starting to

646
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: turn dubbish. Actually more of that into say the first

647
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: quarter of next year. So you're not swayed then by

648
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: some of the commentary we're hearing from President Biden saying

649
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 1: that there's gonna be maybe a slight recession and that

650
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: people shouldn't prepare for a long recession. You don't think

651
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a shallow recession, you know, no, I

652
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 1: I you know, for presidents to call recessions, well, you

653
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 1: know his history does is not on their side, so

654
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 1: to speak. If you look at history, um recession or not,

655
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: the shallow or not. I don't think it will. I don't.

656
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: We're not looking for a deep downtary. The consumer is

657
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: still in decent shape relatively speaking. It's really the rest

658
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 1: of the world that worries us. Worries me when comes

659
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 1: to the outlook. So you know, to us, US economy

660
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: is the best in the best shape globally. Will we

661
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 1: maybe we go in first, we come out first, will

662
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: be the strongest. So we have a bias towards US

663
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: assets when we look globally when we do asset allocation,

664
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,439
Speaker 1: what are you looking at in terms of US allocations? Really,

665
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: you know, Nathan, hard assets, hard power, and so to speak.

666
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:27,399
Speaker 1: So we like energy, we like defense, minerals, metals. We're

667
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 1: really staying in that space. It's worked well and we

668
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: think it's going to continue to work a little bit

669
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: more defensive with healthcare utilities, were not ready kind of

670
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 1: flip the switch and go to growth because we think

671
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: that's a story for the second half of next year.

672
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of pain between now and then. Well,

673
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: what would get you to that point where you could

674
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 1: move away from a defensive posture and into growth. What

675
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 1: are you looking for in the economy or the market

676
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: that would get you out of a Barris stance? First

677
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: and foremost would be a consumer price index, just inflation

678
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 1: in general, which way, how much is attacking or what

679
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: components doesn't alleviate the FED raising race too far, too aggressively,

680
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,959
Speaker 1: And to say first quarter of next year, that's first

681
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: and foremost. We need some type of it. Won't call

682
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 1: it a pause, that's some kind of off ramp for

683
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia. And then we need China to reflate

684
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,760
Speaker 1: um you get get COVID zero, COVID policy, reflate reset.

685
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 1: So really, but the biggest issue is right here at home.

686
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 1: It's the c p I and then really the employment,

687
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,720
Speaker 1: the labor market. How much slack is is being built

688
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: in there that will take the foot off the pedal

689
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 1: of the Fed. What's your expectation of what we're gonna

690
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: get from this consumer price index? Do you think we've

691
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: hit peak inflation? You know our economists, do you think

692
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 1: we've hit peak inflation? But it remains elevated, elevated as well.

693
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: If we break below eight percent, maybe that's you know,

694
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 1: don't pop the cork on the champagne, because it's we're

695
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: still at seven present plus. So you know, the inflationary

696
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: track has a long ways to go yet in terms

697
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: of getting even remotely close to two percent UM. If

698
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: we get there too fast, right down when we start

699
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: seeing a real nicking a year of year decline, that

700
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: means the economy is weakening more than people expect it.

701
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 1: So it's a very delicate balancing act. So in our

702
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: last minute here, Joe, where do you see opportunity at

703
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: this point in the tightening cycle and and how long

704
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 1: do you expect this tightening cycle. Last well, I think

705
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: the tightening cycles behind us. We reached the peak in

706
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: the FED funds rate first quarter of next year. I

707
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,280
Speaker 1: think that's kind of like the base case maybe March April,

708
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: so then we've got the balance of the year to

709
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 1: work through. We're still hard assets, hard power. It's still

710
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,760
Speaker 1: to me when you look globally OPEC plus if China

711
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 1: does reflate, that's bullish for energy prices, commodities in general, agriculture.

712
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: So we're still playing defense well into next year based

713
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 1: on this inflationary fight for the FED. So give it

714
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 1: in shorter duration on a fixed income that's kind of

715
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: where we're hiding out, holding cash, building some cash reserves,

716
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: and being ready for the upturn because as I said,

717
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: I do think the US leads the way coming out

718
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 1: of this global recessions. You want to position in the

719
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: US first, globally second. That's just gonna take some time,

720
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 1: all right, Joe, thanks for this great having on with

721
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 1: us this morning. Joe Quinlan, head of ce IO Market

722
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 1: Strategy at Merylan Bank of America Private Bank. Karen Nathan,

723
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: it is five fifty four on Wall Street time now

724
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: for our daily Bloomberg labbreef exploring legal issues in the news,

725
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: and today we're looking at oral arguments. Yesterday, the Supreme

726
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 1: Court justices were concerned about the implications of California's humane

727
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: pork law and whether it would mean that other states

728
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 1: could impose demands such as requiring that workers be paid

729
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: a certain way to be allowed to opt out of

730
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 1: a union before products could be sold. The law approved

731
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: through a balant initiative, bands of sale of pork in

732
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 1: California unless pregnant pigs are allowed at least twenty four

733
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,879
Speaker 1: square feet of space enough to be able to stand

734
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: up and turn around in their pens. For more, Bloomberg's

735
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 1: Ding Grasses speaks to Harold Krant, a professor at the

736
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: Chicago Kent College of Law. The pork producers say the

737
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: law unlawfully regulates farmers in other eates, but those farmers

738
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 1: don't have to sell their pork in California. They don't.

739
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: But California, because of its size, has of the market,

740
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: and so states like New York, California, and Texas have

741
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: a disproportionate impact upon commerce in the United States, and

742
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: so producers have to listen to what those three states,

743
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 1: in particular say that they have an outsized impact on

744
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 1: the market. That being said, it is clear that if

745
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: California banned all the importation of pork because of perceived

746
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: health reasons into the state of California, that would survive

747
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: any kind of commerce laws challenge. So the interesting issue here,

748
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 1: and I think one that we split the court, is

749
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: if a ban is okay under the Constitution, why isn't

750
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: the lesser step of a certification that the pigs are

751
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: slaughtered under humane conditions. Why shouldn't that also be constitutional?

752
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 1: The gentices seemed concerned about the implications of the law,

753
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: whether states could impose their oral values beyond their borders,

754
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 1: and that sort of crossed ideological lines. For example, Justice

755
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: Barrett said, so you could have California pass a law

756
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: that said, we're not going to buy any pork from

757
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 1: companies that don't require all their employees to be vaccinated,

758
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 1: or from corporations that don't fund gender affirming surgery or

759
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 1: that sort of thing. So it was sort of the

760
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: parade of horribles. What could happen? I think that's right,

761
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 1: and I think this case gives rise to that kind

762
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: of parade of horribles, as you suggest, far more so

763
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: than any case the Court has seen which gives rise

764
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: at least if I had to make a prediction that

765
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: the Court is going to find some kind of narrow

766
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 1: way to reverse the Ninth Circuit holding in favor of

767
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 1: California and set it back for some additional proceedings, perhaps

768
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,760
Speaker 1: based upon the strength of the showing that each party

769
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 1: can make about, on the one hand, what kind of

770
00:41:56,320 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: health benefits for California citizens may accur from this kind

771
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 1: of humane treatment measures. On the other hand, what kind

772
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: of economic impact disc California regulation they caused the pork

773
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 1: producers and as Harold Crent, a professor at the Chicago

774
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,720
Speaker 1: Kent College of Law, speaking with the Bloomberg June Grosso.

775
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: Catch more of that interview, plus analysis of the latest

776
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 1: legal news by subscribing to the Bloomberg Law Podcast or

777
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: downloading the show at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Attorneys

778
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 1: can find exceptional legal research and business development tools at

779
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,919
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Law dot com and on the Bloomberg terminal at

780
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 1: b law Go. Futures this morning are on the rise

781
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: SMP futures of twenty eight points down. Futures have a

782
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: hundred eighty three Nastack futures have one hundred three ten

783
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,600
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784
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: four per cent, and our top stories are straight ahead.

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00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,360
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