WEBVTT - The Good Kind of Surge 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:06.760 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three forty 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:12.000 two since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:16.480 story a vaccine surge is on the way as drugmakers 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.400 ratchet up their production and more facilities become equipped to 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:26.639 provide the drugs to US communities. But first, here's what 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:37.240 happened in virus News today. Visor and bio ent Tech 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:41.199 asked the US Food and Drug Administration for permission to 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:45.640 store their vaccine at lower temperatures that would allow the 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:48.120 drug to be stored for two weeks in the type 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:53.120 of freezers pharmacies use. Making storage easier in this way 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:58.920 could simplify distribution of the shock. The partners submitted new 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.160 data showing the vaccine is stable when it is stored 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:07.839 at minus twenty five to minus fifteen degrees celsius. Current 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.480 protocol is to store the vaccine for up to six 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.920 months in an ultra cold freezer at temperatures up to 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:17.840 negative sixty degrees celsius and to ship them in a 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:23.200 special thermal container. This limits the number of facilities that 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:26.680 have the equipment needed to store and administer the vaccine. 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:32.959 The European Union plans to double its cash commitment for 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:37.200 the KOVACS program. According to an EU official familiar with 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:41.720 the matter, the block will now contribute one billion euros 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:46.400 to the program, which provides vaccines to poorer nations. G 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:51.320 seven nations, including the US, the UK, and France, are 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:58.520 also expected to pledge donations of vaccine supplies. Finally, in 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:01.880 the US, there are early signs of a resurgence of 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:06.000 COVID nineteen cases in the Great Plains, the area where 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:10.680 the most recent nationwide surge started. The seven day average 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:14.200 of new cases in North Dakota has climbed by one 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:18.080 hundred and forty seven percent in the past week, the 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:22.359 most in the US. According to COVID Tracking Project data. 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:27.560 Nebraska's cases are up to the period and South Dakotas 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:32.640 are up seventeen. The move is a reminder that while 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:38.040 the overall trends have improved vastly, the pandemic continues and 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:47.360 hotspots are likely to keep popping up. And now, for 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:51.679 today's main story, the US vaccine supply is poised to 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.960 double in the coming weeks and months, according to an 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:59.680 analysis by Bloomberg, allowing a broad expansion of doses administered 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:05.400 across the country. Currently, the US is administering one point 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:09.720 six million doses a day, constrained by the recent supply 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:13.960 of about ten million to fifteen million doses a week, 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:20.079 but COVID nineteen vaccine manufacturers and US officials have accelerated 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:25.280 the production timelines. I spoke to Senior editor Drew Armstrong, 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:30.440 who leads Bloomberg's Vaccine Tracker. Drew said the spigots are 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:35.360 about open, providing hundreds of millions of doses, just as 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:45.040 pharmacies and mass vaccination sites become more equipped to administer them. 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.800 Let's start with some numbers. How many COVID nineteen vaccines 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:53.440 is the US currently distributing, and more importantly, how is 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:58.120 that number expected to change over the coming months. That's 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:02.480 a really good question. Um. So the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker, 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:05.240 which is the product that I run here, we look 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:08.600 at every day how many shots going to arms around 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:12.040 the US. And what we see right now is that 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:15.400 you know, about one point six one point seven million 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:19.760 doses a day are administered in all fifty states and 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:23.800 across some federal entities, um and some territories. And that's 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:27.960 a number that's been really constrained essentially by supply. The 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:32.480 US distributes anywhere from ten million to fifteen million doses 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:34.640 a week, and if you do the math on that, 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.560 you know, with a couple of little variances, one point 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.600 six you know, give or take a couple hundred thousand 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.680 is where you get. So we've been in this environment 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:45.880 now for a few weeks where you know, just about 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:49.320 every dose that gets sent out is more or less 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.800 being you know, doses are being used at the same 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.760 pace that they're that they're sent out, and that is 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:58.840 not a pace that's been fast enough to cover the 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:01.599 United States in any kind of timely fashion. We have 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.240 a calculator on our website that shows, you know, at 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:06.520 the current pace, how long would it take to cover 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.919 scent of Americans with a two does vaccine? And I 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:12.560 think right now that number is up to about nine months. 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.320 I don't think that makes anybody happy. That would be 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.760 sometime in the fall um heading towards the beginning of winter. 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:22.599 But you know, we do know that more vaccine is coming. 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:26.760 So what is going to lead to this increased supply? 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:31.479 So I think when you think about manufacturing in this case, 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.680 what is a new and complicated product. You know, these 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:38.919 vaccines they're actually quite high technology. They're very challenging. To 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:42.039 spin up large scale manufacturing. You need to think about 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:45.039 a manufacturing ramp, which is what we you know, what 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.320 everybody calls this where basically supply tends to start out 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:52.120 at a trickle. More factories get broad online essentially, or 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.520 the manufacturing lines in those factories they add new ones, 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.680 or they make them more efficient. You look for processes 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.560 and you begin to see re increases in production closer 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:06.080 to what a maximum is. We took a very careful 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:09.359 look at all of the public statements by the companies, 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:12.159 you know, they have made commitments to saying we will 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:15.640 deliver you know, X number of doses under our existing 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:20.760 contract by this month, another hundred million doses of doses 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:25.280 delivered by the following month, and combine all of those 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:28.960 things together with some additional more granular timetables to show 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.440 that there's actually gonna be quite a bit of vaccine 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:35.480 supply coming in the next few months. Taken together, you know, 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:40.320 the Fiser vaccine moderna vaccine that's likely to be authorized 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:43.039 for use by J and J. We go from a 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:46.719 place where we're at around you know, fifteen million doses 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:48.840 a week now too. By the time we get to March, 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.599 you know, we're really looking at more like twenty million 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:54.480 doses a week by the time we get to April, 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:58.320 may million a week, by the time we're in June, 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:02.680 thirty million a week. That starts to really really add up. 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:05.480 You're talking about, you know, by April, enough vaccine to 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.600 cover a hundred and nine million Americans. By Junior, get 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:12.800 to fifty million by July, we have more vaccine, you know, 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:15.640 doses than we have people to give them to. Although 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:19.440 those projections require companies to hit their targets, so it's 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:23.040 a major caveat now to meet these deadlines, they need 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.480 to actually succeed in making the stuff. But we're basing 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.440 this on the numbers that they are promising, and certainly 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:34.240 hoping that they get those right. Obviously, these numbers sound fantastic, 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:39.480 and and the question of if they're feasible targets is 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.320 a big one. I mean, we've already seen delays and 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:46.560 production delays and shipping um obviously even right now going 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:50.200 on with the weather, we've seen problems in getting vaccines 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:53.000 out of communities. So I mean, even in your opinion, 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:58.800 how how overly optimistic are these targets. Well, I don't 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.960 know if I would call them overly optimistic. I mean, 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.040 I think one of the things that's worth remembering about 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:09.520 these companies is that these are very large corporations that, 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.440 in my experience dealing with them, tend to be quite 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.800 conservative in what they promised. That said, a lot of 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.160 the promises that you know they are making recently, I 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.480 think can get conflated with some of the promises of 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:22.520 the prior administration, where there was kind of a lot 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:27.240 of overpromise and under deliver on vaccine numbers, um. You know, 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.040 but these companies are actually you know, they don't say 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.400 this stuff unless they think that they can do it, 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.360 because they know that if they don't that is a 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:37.959 big disappointment and that they will be held to account, 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.600 hauled up before Congress, you know, made villains in the 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:43.920 eyes of the American public, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. They tend 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.800 to be pretty conservative about how they talk about this stuff. So, 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:49.040 you know, I think that they would not be saying 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.320 this if they did not have a strong degree of 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:55.240 confidence that they will meet these targets. Now, I want 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.839 to pause real quickly here and saying there's a lot 0:08:57.880 --> 0:08:59.760 of other stuff that can go wrong. Look at this, 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.400 a storm that has more or less put vaccinations in 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.880 Texas on hold. If you dig into our vaccine tracker, 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:08.720 you can actually take a look and see that Texas 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.280 took a huge hit on the terms of the number 0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:14.720 of vaccines that it's been able to administer over the 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:17.600 last several days. You know, I mean things can go wrong, 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.120 whether UM shipping issues. We may get to a point 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.560 where you know, we've never we haven't distributed this vaccine 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:27.280 as much anymore. There could be distribution bottlenecks. We don't 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:29.120 know if there might be some you know, long term 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:30.920 side effect that we're not aware of that causes one 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.080 of these vaccines to either be pulled from the market 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:36.560 or limited in use. There's a lot of variables here. 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:41.080 This is not just manufacturing UM. You know, and I've 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:43.439 been taught in this pandemic that you know, if stuff 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:45.800 can't go wrong, it will go wrong. So you know, 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:49.720 I really want to caution people. This is a model 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:54.160 of what companies are saying. There are many other moving 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:57.760 pieces in this big vaccine machine that have to all 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.240 keep moving and not breaking down and or or for 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:04.160 this to work. And you raise a really important point 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:08.240 that supply, just the quantity of vaccines is maybe not 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.959 even half the battle, but only a piece of this 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:15.800 very complicated puzzle. So assuming that we will have this 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.560 increased supply of vaccines going into the spring and even 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:22.080 into the summer, I mean what has been announced as 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:26.320 far as plans on local, state, federal government lines to 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:33.160 make sure this increased supply will get distributed and into arms. Yeah. 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:36.240 One of the really interesting things that has been happening 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.040 and actually gave us a little bit more confidence in 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:44.040 writing this story, was not just looking at in isolation 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.679 the statements by the companies, but you know what is 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:48.800 actually happening on the ground in order to kind of 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.480 widen the you know, the pipeline, you know, for the 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:55.200 last mile of getting these things from factory to arm, etcetera. 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:57.880 I think if you look around the country, there is 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:02.000 a building of vaccine and indistration capacity that's been going on. 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:06.600 Michigan's top health officials said earlier this month that we 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:09.720 could be doing eighty thousand doses a day. We're only getting, 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:11.720 you know, but if you look at what they're actually getting, 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:13.760 the number of doses they're getting to be able to 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:16.880 administer it's you know, anywhere from thirty thousand to fifty 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:20.160 thousand doses a day less than that. FEMA has been 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.440 opening up mass vaccination centers around the country. They have 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:25.520 a pop upsite in Delaware that's going to go for 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:29.200 six days and do three thousand people a day. Football 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:33.640 stadiums are being turned into mass vaccination centers. Um. You 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.160 know in San Francisco, the forty nine or stadium, they 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:40.120 say they can do fifteen thousand doses a day there. Um. 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:42.480 This is happening all around the country where there is 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:46.480 this building of administration capacity. You know, they've pulled retired 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:50.240 nurses and doctors back into service and said, hey, come 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.000 help out with this. Pharmacies are now beginning to be 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.800 shipped vaccine for use by the general public. Those are 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.280 tens of thousands of locations. I think one of the 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:02.120 things that have to remember, you know, a good comparison 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:04.599 to this is like the Nursing Home program, where the 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:06.920 big drug store chains were contracted with to go out 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.800 and vaccinate people in the nursing homes and actually went 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:12.800 really really slowly. I think people thought that, oh, this 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.680 will be great, We'll hire these big companies that have 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:19.599 locations everywhere. They'll sweep across America and vaccinate all the 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:21.120 old people in the nursing homes who are the folks 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:23.800 who are most vulnerable to this disease and really need 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.560 these vaccines. That's not what happened. It turns out it 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.680 is way easier and more efficient to tell ten thousand 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.760 people to, you know, or fifteen thousand people, Hey, drive 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.319 to the football stadium that every Sunday in the fall 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:39.440 is used to handling a hundred thousand people getting in 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:41.599 and out of this place. Line you all up and 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.480 vaccinate you. That's easy to do, that's efficient to do. 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.480 What's really hard to do is to say, Okay, you're 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.200 gonna have to go drive out to tiny, little essentially 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.520 you know, nursing homes all around the country and go 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:56.120 door to door vaccinating fragile ninety year old who have 0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:58.679 to be handled with extreme care and caution because of 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.600 their susceptibility to the ZA. We are moving into a 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:05.400 place where the efficiency on the administration side really begins 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:09.440 to ramp up. From the federal government perspective. You know 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.560 what has the ad Biden administration said as far as 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:16.320 their goals for having America vaccinated. I mean, have they 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:20.719 taken into account this new supply line of vaccines and 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.559 adjusted their timetable at all. One of the things it's 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.600 a very interesting contrast between this current administration and the 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.760 prior administration is that they seem to be quite conscious 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:39.360 about being conservative and not overpromising how they're going to 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:43.520 deliver these vaccines. And you see comments that kind of 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:47.480 look like trying to talk both ways about this, where 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.280 on one hand they say, things are going great, We're 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.280 hitting all our targets. Look how wonderful we're doing, and 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.960 really trying to you know, count their own winds on this, 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.280 you know, on the other hand, they say, whoa wa, whoa, 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.079 be careful, all we won't have all these vaccines until July, 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.800 which is a month later than what we project. You know, 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.960 we see them talking down production of the Johnson and 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.520 Johnson vaccine a little bit, saying, well, we expect that 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:12.120 to be a very very slow ramp. I think there's 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.920 a little bit of you know, both political and public 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:17.880 health expectations setting um going on here. If I had 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.960 to take a guess where, you know, one, you don't 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.920 want people to think, you know, yeah, you know, I'll 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.440 have a vaccine next week, so I can go and 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.720 give up all the good public health measures that I've 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:32.680 been practicing for a year now. Um, you know. You also, 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.520 at the same time, I don't want to give people 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:37.840 the mindset they're like, hey, the vaccine is never getting here, 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:39.920 so why even bother I'm going to give up. For 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.120 that reason, I think they're trying to walk a little 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.560 bit of a fine line from a public health standpoint 0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:48.440 while also trying to control the narrative from a political standpoint. 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.840 You know, we'll see if they adjust those projections, and 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.440 and obviously we intend to you know, keep on the 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.360 companies that are manufacturing these and hold them to account, 0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:00.280 um and call out if they don't hit their missed 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.440 targets um. You know, and we'll be keeping an eye 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:08.440 on the Biden administration as well. That was Drew Armstrong 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.120 and that's it for our show today. For coverage of 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:14.280 the outbreak from one twenty bureaus around the world, visit 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:19.240 Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.960 please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.400 Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:30.360 listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:35.080 produced by Tophur foreheads Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:40.600 Today's main story was reported by Drew Armstrong. Original music 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:44.680 by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:49.920 Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.