Speaker 1: From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington
Speaker 1: Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, in many ways, I think of John Kennedy
Speaker 1: and the Bay of Picks. Uh. Uh, you know, it
Speaker 1: unfolded quickly, and uh, the president thought that everything would
Speaker 1: be fine and that was not the case. But President
Speaker 1: Kennedy took responsibility for what took place. And I strongly
Speaker 1: recommend the President Biden that he take responsibility admit the
Speaker 1: mistakes that were made. That's Leon Panetta, former Secretary Defense
Speaker 1: and Secretary ran the CIA. Um. I'm not you know,
Speaker 1: for domestic consumption that sort of stuff is important. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure on the global stage if any of that
Speaker 1: matters right now. Yeah, the President is taking it from
Speaker 1: all sides. But yeah, let's talk about the global effects.
Speaker 1: Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group. They helped
Speaker 1: business leaders, policy makers, and folks like us understand the
Speaker 1: world around us. In Bremer joins us, see and how
Speaker 1: are you sir? Hey gonna be back with you guys.
Speaker 1: You're one of the many Twitter feeds I followed a
Speaker 1: lot over the weekend trying to get kind of a
Speaker 1: global perspective of this. How is the rest of the world,
Speaker 1: whether it's the Middle East or China gonna interpret what's
Speaker 1: happened in the last week. Oh the China. Chinese are
Speaker 1: doing donuts right now saying the US is in decline
Speaker 1: and if you're Taiwan, this shows you you can't trust
Speaker 1: the Americans and we're going to take over soon. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know that they are leaning into a debacle on
Speaker 1: the ground and saying that that reflects American weakness. Um.
Speaker 1: The Allies, of course, are are deeply concerned because they
Speaker 1: were not consulted. They fought with the Americans side by
Speaker 1: side in Afghanistan for twenty years, but when it came
Speaker 1: time to leave, that decision was made unilaterally on an
Speaker 1: internal domestic policy review by Biden, and they're not happy
Speaker 1: about that. UM. So know, when you're right, I'm Biden
Speaker 1: is taking it from all sides right now. There is
Speaker 1: no easy way to lose a war. And you know,
Speaker 1: I do think that Biden may makes a compelling case
Speaker 1: for why he made the decision to leave, and by
Speaker 1: the way, a popular decision at home in the United States.
Speaker 1: But but making that decision and then actually affecting that decision.
Speaker 1: On the ground are two very different things, and it's
Speaker 1: very clear from the last seventy two hours that the
Speaker 1: United States has made some very big mistakes on the ground.
Speaker 1: There's a tendency to make grand, grand pronouncements when something
Speaker 1: like this occurs. It's a good way to get the
Speaker 1: air and clicks in the rest of it. Uh, do
Speaker 1: you think when the dust settles a year or two
Speaker 1: from now, this is going to be seen as a
Speaker 1: major global development or just another chapter in Afghanistan's long
Speaker 1: troubled history. It's not over yet. Um. I think that
Speaker 1: as long as no Americans are killed as we close
Speaker 1: this um to be a big spike in attention on
Speaker 1: the nine eleven anniversary when the Taliban are parading all
Speaker 1: of the American equipment material that they've stolen and you know,
Speaker 1: the embassy's closed and Talidan flags on top of it,
Speaker 1: and that that's gonna be bad in the United States
Speaker 1: and globally. But that's not you know, you asked me
Speaker 1: midterm elections, is Afghanistan playing a big role? The answer
Speaker 1: is no, as long as it doesn't get worse. But
Speaker 1: you know, you still have five ten thousand Americans on
Speaker 1: the ground right now in Afghanistan, and you guys will
Speaker 1: forgive me if I don't trust the Taliban when they
Speaker 1: say that they're not going to interfere with the ability
Speaker 1: of Americans to get out. I'd rather get the Americans
Speaker 1: out first and then then then say, Okay, it's done.
Speaker 1: Because if we end up with a hostage type situation
Speaker 1: like we did with the American embassy in Tehran and
Speaker 1: seventy nine, this will be the end of Biden's presidency.
Speaker 1: He will he will have destroyed it. And I don't
Speaker 1: think that's going to happen, but it's not like a
Speaker 1: one percent chance. There's a real possibility of that. So
Speaker 1: I mean, let's just recognize that we're still in it
Speaker 1: right now. How How would Taiwan, for instance, not look
Speaker 1: at this and think, wow, I'm not sure they're gonna
Speaker 1: come to our defense. Well, there's a big difference between
Speaker 1: Taiwan and say, Afghanistan. I put Afghanistan more in the
Speaker 1: Ukraine and Georgia camp. These are countries that, irrespective of
Speaker 1: what we say, we don't actually care about because we
Speaker 1: don't have significant national interests at play. And so when
Speaker 1: they get invaded by the Russians in the case of
Speaker 1: Ukraine or Georgia, or when the Taliban takes over in
Speaker 1: the case of Afghanistan, we just pull out. We say, hey, sorry,
Speaker 1: We'll support human rights and maybe we'll put some sanctions on.
Speaker 1: But that's it. I mean, if the Chinese were to
Speaker 1: take Taiwan, I want to be very clear um our
Speaker 1: our industry in the United States. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: anything from atomotives to home appliances to advanced technology. We
Speaker 1: don't have semi conductors. Of all semi conductors exported globally
Speaker 1: come from Taiwan. There is this is a critical national
Speaker 1: interest in the United States and there is no question
Speaker 1: in my mind that we would defend it. Uh and
Speaker 1: and that that speaks to the US military engagement, to
Speaker 1: the arms sales, to the to the fawn ops, the
Speaker 1: freedom of navigation operations we have in the region. And
Speaker 1: to be clear, the Chinese government is very well aware
Speaker 1: of that. So there is a difference between the propaganda
Speaker 1: that we're hearing from the Chinese government right now that
Speaker 1: trumpets American declinism and the reality of the balance of power,
Speaker 1: the strategic ambiguity, which is the name of that policy
Speaker 1: that we have with taiwan Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group,
Speaker 1: is on the line Ian the administration, the President himself
Speaker 1: look very shaky to us right now, not inspiring a
Speaker 1: lot of confidence in you know, our national security situation.
Speaker 1: What do you think they're saying in the parlors of
Speaker 1: Chairman Shire or in Moscow or Tehran about Biden in
Speaker 1: the administration. Yeah, they think that he's made a big mistake.
Speaker 1: This is the first foreign policy crisis of his administration,
Speaker 1: and it's largely self inflicted. Um and they think he
Speaker 1: looks weak. And they know that the credibility of American commitments,
Speaker 1: which had been shaken under Trump's America First administration, has
Speaker 1: now been further damaged under Biden. Despite the fact that
Speaker 1: Biden is all about America is back. But let's also
Speaker 1: be clear that China has big problems right now. The
Speaker 1: third largest port in the world is presently partially closed
Speaker 1: because of delta variant in China, and their vaccines don't
Speaker 1: really work against delta variant ours do in the United States.
Speaker 1: They've got big debt problems, they've got big demographic problems.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're increasingly shutting down international I p O
Speaker 1: s because they can't control their local corporations, even though
Speaker 1: the private sector drives most of their efficiency. So I mean,
Speaker 1: if you ask United States, right and uh, and that
Speaker 1: that continues to be the case. It's funny you bring
Speaker 1: up COVID and that this is the first story that
Speaker 1: has bumped COVID off the front page since COVID started.
Speaker 1: And I mean we've we've done a couple of days
Speaker 1: where we barely mentioned COVID. What what is the COVID
Speaker 1: story globally right now? Well, the global story today, and
Speaker 1: it's quite linked to Afghanistan, is that the United States
Speaker 1: in the coming days is going to approve um third
Speaker 1: booster shots for the entire American population that has already
Speaker 1: been vaccinated eight months after the second vaccination, after the
Speaker 1: course has been completed. And the World Health Organization is
Speaker 1: strongly opposing the United States doing that while most of
Speaker 1: the global population hasn't gotten their first jab yet. And
Speaker 1: they're saying, look, if you want to give you know,
Speaker 1: your immuno compromise people booster shots. Fine, that's a tiny
Speaker 1: percentage of the population. But this is a global problem.
Speaker 1: We've got to pay attention to the rest of the world.
Speaker 1: And the by administration's response is, actually, I'm not president
Speaker 1: of the world. I'm just President of the United Staiths,
Speaker 1: and I really don't care about what happens in these
Speaker 1: other countries. Now he's not saying it that way, and
Speaker 1: we're providing donations to other countries. But to be very clear,
Speaker 1: right the rest of the world is looking at the
Speaker 1: US and is increasingly sensing that American interests, irrespective of
Speaker 1: who the president is, increasingly do not align well with
Speaker 1: the interests of their own countries or the world as
Speaker 1: a whole. A bit of a general question, when do
Speaker 1: you see the world's economic supply chain situation getting back
Speaker 1: to something close to normal? Um, you know, I think
Speaker 1: that the issue is your still going to see a
Speaker 1: lot of rolling disruptions because countries are responding to COVID
Speaker 1: in such different ways, and because the delta variant has
Speaker 1: so much spread. So I mean China, the supply chain
Speaker 1: for China. You'll remember, over a year ago was almost
Speaker 1: fully back up and running. This was second quarter two
Speaker 1: thousand twenty, and today you're seeing rolling disruptions again. Why
Speaker 1: Because the Chinese government has zero tolerance for spread, especially
Speaker 1: with vaccines that don't work. Very well. There's still a
Speaker 1: lot of spread that we're going to see in middle
Speaker 1: and lower income economies, and that means that we're not
Speaker 1: going to have uh, you know, international tourism back to
Speaker 1: what it was. We aren't going to have those citizens
Speaker 1: allowed to travel to other countries where they can make
Speaker 1: more money and send remittances back home. So I think
Speaker 1: that supply chain will still see rolling disruptions probably until
Speaker 1: you know, mid to late at a minimum. Well, the
Speaker 1: reason I asked is because my wife and I have
Speaker 1: been waiting for our dining room set for six months.
Speaker 1: Do you have any idea where it is? Where's it
Speaker 1: coming from? Probably China? I don't even know. You wantn't
Speaker 1: you get a van and go to North Carolina like
Speaker 1: a real American buy something that Americans decent picked it out?
Speaker 1: Are you teating your wife? I mean, yeah, who's in
Speaker 1: charge in your household? We really have to ask that.
Speaker 1: Um My, My final question flitted out of my head
Speaker 1: because I've got senior moment happening. What was it about?
Speaker 1: It was about? So is Afghanistan justice? So we're you know,
Speaker 1: how however messy this is gonna be over the last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks assuming we get most people out and
Speaker 1: everything like that, is Afghanistan just gonna be a hellhole
Speaker 1: run by these fundamentalist nut jobs that brutalize the population
Speaker 1: for the near future. Uh well, I mean is in
Speaker 1: the sense that they it's easy for the Taliban to
Speaker 1: take over the country, they're not going to be able
Speaker 1: to run it very well. I mean, the northern territories
Speaker 1: will still be effectively run by warlords, bill engage in
Speaker 1: lots of you know, rapacious taxation of local farmers. Uh.
Speaker 1: And the farmers will have to grow opium so that
Speaker 1: they can make enough money to be able to pay it.
Speaker 1: But they're not going to be governed by the Taliban.
Speaker 1: The Taliban will govern you pockets of the country and
Speaker 1: some cities and kabul Um. And so when you see
Speaker 1: the Chinese thing, they're gonna come in. They're gonna befriend
Speaker 1: these guys. Maybe they'll invest back. Before nine eleven, Unakal
Speaker 1: was trying to build a pipeline that was going to
Speaker 1: connect Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. It was the geo politically
Speaker 1: stupidest pipeline everyone anyone had ever thought of trying to build.
Speaker 1: It never happened. Um. Now we say we're talking about oil,
Speaker 1: we're talking about rare earths, and they're trillions of dollars
Speaker 1: or rare earths are located underneath Afghanistan. The only problem
Speaker 1: that you have to actually invest there, and the Chinese
Speaker 1: are going to find that equally challenging over the long term,
Speaker 1: Taliban's gonna have high taxes. The Opian fathers need to
Speaker 1: pay their fair share, beautiful, Ian Bremer, President of your
Speaker 1: Asia Group. Ian, we always appreciate when you carve off
Speaker 1: a couple of minutes for us. Thanks a million, I
Speaker 1: think you guess. Thanks, We've got a hundred airs and
Speaker 1: thousand airs. I need to pay their fair share. How
Speaker 1: many goats does one man need? Oh geez, By the way,
Speaker 1: I just got a text from Judy North Carolina. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I figured you bought real furniture or not the Chinese
Speaker 1: furniture that I usually get. Yeah, I got like a
Speaker 1: couple of real pieces of furniture. They're way better. They
Speaker 1: cost a lot more, but they're way better, I mean,
Speaker 1: and if your kids want them, they'll be in great
Speaker 1: shape when your kids are you know of age, although
Speaker 1: from what I hear, you know generation Z they sit
Speaker 1: on the floor they eat off the cardboard boxes they
Speaker 1: used for use for the furniture. The key difference between
Speaker 1: real furniture and cheap crappy furniture. Cheap crappy furniture, you
Speaker 1: reach under it to move, you're gonna get jabbed with
Speaker 1: a staple. Real furniture, you are not like China. That
Speaker 1: is the difference. I got a big old scar on
Speaker 1: my forearm. I don't know if you can see it.
Speaker 1: It's faded a little bit, but it looks like a
Speaker 1: suicide attempt because I reached behind a cheap crappy sofa
Speaker 1: in the hotel room to unplug my charger and it
Speaker 1: just sliced my entire four arm open. Cheap crappy furniture China,
Speaker 1: uh text line four one five two nine five kftc