WEBVTT - No Easy Way to Lose a War.  Ian Bremmer talks to A&G  

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<v Speaker 1>From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, in many ways, I think of John Kennedy

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<v Speaker 1>and the Bay of Picks. Uh. Uh, you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>unfolded quickly, and uh, the president thought that everything would

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<v Speaker 1>be fine and that was not the case. But President

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<v Speaker 1>Kennedy took responsibility for what took place. And I strongly

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<v Speaker 1>recommend the President Biden that he take responsibility admit the

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<v Speaker 1>mistakes that were made. That's Leon Panetta, former Secretary Defense

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<v Speaker 1>and Secretary ran the CIA. Um. I'm not you know,

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<v Speaker 1>for domestic consumption that sort of stuff is important. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not sure on the global stage if any of that

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<v Speaker 1>matters right now. Yeah, the President is taking it from

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<v Speaker 1>all sides. But yeah, let's talk about the global effects.

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<v Speaker 1>Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group. They helped

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<v Speaker 1>business leaders, policy makers, and folks like us understand the

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<v Speaker 1>world around us. In Bremer joins us, see and how

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<v Speaker 1>are you sir? Hey gonna be back with you guys.

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<v Speaker 1>You're one of the many Twitter feeds I followed a

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<v Speaker 1>lot over the weekend trying to get kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>global perspective of this. How is the rest of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's the Middle East or China gonna interpret what's

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<v Speaker 1>happened in the last week. Oh the China. Chinese are

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<v Speaker 1>doing donuts right now saying the US is in decline

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<v Speaker 1>and if you're Taiwan, this shows you you can't trust

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<v Speaker 1>the Americans and we're going to take over soon. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that they are leaning into a debacle on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground and saying that that reflects American weakness. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>The Allies, of course, are are deeply concerned because they

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<v Speaker 1>were not consulted. They fought with the Americans side by

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<v Speaker 1>side in Afghanistan for twenty years, but when it came

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<v Speaker 1>time to leave, that decision was made unilaterally on an

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<v Speaker 1>internal domestic policy review by Biden, and they're not happy

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<v Speaker 1>about that. UM. So know, when you're right, I'm Biden

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<v Speaker 1>is taking it from all sides right now. There is

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<v Speaker 1>no easy way to lose a war. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that Biden may makes a compelling case

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<v Speaker 1>for why he made the decision to leave, and by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, a popular decision at home in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>But but making that decision and then actually affecting that decision.

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<v Speaker 1>On the ground are two very different things, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>very clear from the last seventy two hours that the

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<v Speaker 1>United States has made some very big mistakes on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a tendency to make grand, grand pronouncements when something

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<v Speaker 1>like this occurs. It's a good way to get the

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<v Speaker 1>air and clicks in the rest of it. Uh, do

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<v Speaker 1>you think when the dust settles a year or two

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<v Speaker 1>from now, this is going to be seen as a

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<v Speaker 1>major global development or just another chapter in Afghanistan's long

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<v Speaker 1>troubled history. It's not over yet. Um. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>as long as no Americans are killed as we close

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<v Speaker 1>this um to be a big spike in attention on

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<v Speaker 1>the nine eleven anniversary when the Taliban are parading all

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<v Speaker 1>of the American equipment material that they've stolen and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the embassy's closed and Talidan flags on top of it,

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<v Speaker 1>and that that's gonna be bad in the United States

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<v Speaker 1>and globally. But that's not you know, you asked me

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<v Speaker 1>midterm elections, is Afghanistan playing a big role? The answer

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<v Speaker 1>is no, as long as it doesn't get worse. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you still have five ten thousand Americans on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground right now in Afghanistan, and you guys will

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<v Speaker 1>forgive me if I don't trust the Taliban when they

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<v Speaker 1>say that they're not going to interfere with the ability

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<v Speaker 1>of Americans to get out. I'd rather get the Americans

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<v Speaker 1>out first and then then then say, Okay, it's done.

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<v Speaker 1>Because if we end up with a hostage type situation

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<v Speaker 1>like we did with the American embassy in Tehran and

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<v Speaker 1>seventy nine, this will be the end of Biden's presidency.

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<v Speaker 1>He will he will have destroyed it. And I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think that's going to happen, but it's not like a

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<v Speaker 1>one percent chance. There's a real possibility of that. So

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, let's just recognize that we're still in it

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<v Speaker 1>right now. How How would Taiwan, for instance, not look

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<v Speaker 1>at this and think, wow, I'm not sure they're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>come to our defense. Well, there's a big difference between

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan and say, Afghanistan. I put Afghanistan more in the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine and Georgia camp. These are countries that, irrespective of

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<v Speaker 1>what we say, we don't actually care about because we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have significant national interests at play. And so when

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<v Speaker 1>they get invaded by the Russians in the case of

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine or Georgia, or when the Taliban takes over in

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<v Speaker 1>the case of Afghanistan, we just pull out. We say, hey, sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>We'll support human rights and maybe we'll put some sanctions on.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's it. I mean, if the Chinese were to

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<v Speaker 1>take Taiwan, I want to be very clear um our

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<v Speaker 1>our industry in the United States. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>anything from atomotives to home appliances to advanced technology. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't have semi conductors. Of all semi conductors exported globally

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<v Speaker 1>come from Taiwan. There is this is a critical national

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<v Speaker 1>interest in the United States and there is no question

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<v Speaker 1>in my mind that we would defend it. Uh and

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<v Speaker 1>and that that speaks to the US military engagement, to

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<v Speaker 1>the arms sales, to the to the fawn ops, the

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<v Speaker 1>freedom of navigation operations we have in the region. And

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<v Speaker 1>to be clear, the Chinese government is very well aware

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<v Speaker 1>of that. So there is a difference between the propaganda

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<v Speaker 1>that we're hearing from the Chinese government right now that

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<v Speaker 1>trumpets American declinism and the reality of the balance of power,

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<v Speaker 1>the strategic ambiguity, which is the name of that policy

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<v Speaker 1>that we have with taiwan Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group,

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<v Speaker 1>is on the line Ian the administration, the President himself

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<v Speaker 1>look very shaky to us right now, not inspiring a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of confidence in you know, our national security situation.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think they're saying in the parlors of

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<v Speaker 1>Chairman Shire or in Moscow or Tehran about Biden in

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<v Speaker 1>the administration. Yeah, they think that he's made a big mistake.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the first foreign policy crisis of his administration,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's largely self inflicted. Um and they think he

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<v Speaker 1>looks weak. And they know that the credibility of American commitments,

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<v Speaker 1>which had been shaken under Trump's America First administration, has

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<v Speaker 1>now been further damaged under Biden. Despite the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>Biden is all about America is back. But let's also

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<v Speaker 1>be clear that China has big problems right now. The

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<v Speaker 1>third largest port in the world is presently partially closed

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<v Speaker 1>because of delta variant in China, and their vaccines don't

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<v Speaker 1>really work against delta variant ours do in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>They've got big debt problems, they've got big demographic problems.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, they're increasingly shutting down international I p O

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<v Speaker 1>s because they can't control their local corporations, even though

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<v Speaker 1>the private sector drives most of their efficiency. So I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if you ask United States, right and uh, and that

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<v Speaker 1>that continues to be the case. It's funny you bring

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<v Speaker 1>up COVID and that this is the first story that

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<v Speaker 1>has bumped COVID off the front page since COVID started.

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<v Speaker 1>And I mean we've we've done a couple of days

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<v Speaker 1>where we barely mentioned COVID. What what is the COVID

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<v Speaker 1>story globally right now? Well, the global story today, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's quite linked to Afghanistan, is that the United States

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<v Speaker 1>in the coming days is going to approve um third

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<v Speaker 1>booster shots for the entire American population that has already

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<v Speaker 1>been vaccinated eight months after the second vaccination, after the

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<v Speaker 1>course has been completed. And the World Health Organization is

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<v Speaker 1>strongly opposing the United States doing that while most of

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<v Speaker 1>the global population hasn't gotten their first jab yet. And

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<v Speaker 1>they're saying, look, if you want to give you know,

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<v Speaker 1>your immuno compromise people booster shots. Fine, that's a tiny

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<v Speaker 1>percentage of the population. But this is a global problem.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got to pay attention to the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And the by administration's response is, actually, I'm not president

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<v Speaker 1>of the world. I'm just President of the United Staiths,

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<v Speaker 1>and I really don't care about what happens in these

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<v Speaker 1>other countries. Now he's not saying it that way, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're providing donations to other countries. But to be very clear,

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<v Speaker 1>right the rest of the world is looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>US and is increasingly sensing that American interests, irrespective of

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<v Speaker 1>who the president is, increasingly do not align well with

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<v Speaker 1>the interests of their own countries or the world as

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<v Speaker 1>a whole. A bit of a general question, when do

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<v Speaker 1>you see the world's economic supply chain situation getting back

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<v Speaker 1>to something close to normal? Um, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that the issue is your still going to see a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of rolling disruptions because countries are responding to COVID

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<v Speaker 1>in such different ways, and because the delta variant has

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<v Speaker 1>so much spread. So I mean China, the supply chain

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<v Speaker 1>for China. You'll remember, over a year ago was almost

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<v Speaker 1>fully back up and running. This was second quarter two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand twenty, and today you're seeing rolling disruptions again. Why

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<v Speaker 1>Because the Chinese government has zero tolerance for spread, especially

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<v Speaker 1>with vaccines that don't work. Very well. There's still a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of spread that we're going to see in middle

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<v Speaker 1>and lower income economies, and that means that we're not

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<v Speaker 1>going to have uh, you know, international tourism back to

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<v Speaker 1>what it was. We aren't going to have those citizens

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<v Speaker 1>allowed to travel to other countries where they can make

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<v Speaker 1>more money and send remittances back home. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>that supply chain will still see rolling disruptions probably until

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<v Speaker 1>you know, mid to late at a minimum. Well, the

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<v Speaker 1>reason I asked is because my wife and I have

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<v Speaker 1>been waiting for our dining room set for six months.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have any idea where it is? Where's it

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<v Speaker 1>coming from? Probably China? I don't even know. You wantn't

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<v Speaker 1>you get a van and go to North Carolina like

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<v Speaker 1>a real American buy something that Americans decent picked it out?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you teating your wife? I mean, yeah, who's in

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<v Speaker 1>charge in your household? We really have to ask that.

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<v Speaker 1>Um My, My final question flitted out of my head

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<v Speaker 1>because I've got senior moment happening. What was it about?

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<v Speaker 1>It was about? So is Afghanistan justice? So we're you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how however messy this is gonna be over the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks assuming we get most people out and

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<v Speaker 1>everything like that, is Afghanistan just gonna be a hellhole

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<v Speaker 1>run by these fundamentalist nut jobs that brutalize the population

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<v Speaker 1>for the near future. Uh well, I mean is in

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<v Speaker 1>the sense that they it's easy for the Taliban to

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<v Speaker 1>take over the country, they're not going to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to run it very well. I mean, the northern territories

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<v Speaker 1>will still be effectively run by warlords, bill engage in

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<v Speaker 1>lots of you know, rapacious taxation of local farmers. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And the farmers will have to grow opium so that

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<v Speaker 1>they can make enough money to be able to pay it.

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<v Speaker 1>But they're not going to be governed by the Taliban.

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<v Speaker 1>The Taliban will govern you pockets of the country and

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<v Speaker 1>some cities and kabul Um. And so when you see

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese thing, they're gonna come in. They're gonna befriend

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<v Speaker 1>these guys. Maybe they'll invest back. Before nine eleven, Unakal

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<v Speaker 1>was trying to build a pipeline that was going to

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<v Speaker 1>connect Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. It was the geo politically

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<v Speaker 1>stupidest pipeline everyone anyone had ever thought of trying to build.

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<v Speaker 1>It never happened. Um. Now we say we're talking about oil,

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about rare earths, and they're trillions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>or rare earths are located underneath Afghanistan. The only problem

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<v Speaker 1>that you have to actually invest there, and the Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>are going to find that equally challenging over the long term,

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<v Speaker 1>Taliban's gonna have high taxes. The Opian fathers need to

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<v Speaker 1>pay their fair share, beautiful, Ian Bremer, President of your

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<v Speaker 1>Asia Group. Ian, we always appreciate when you carve off

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of minutes for us. Thanks a million, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you guess. Thanks, We've got a hundred airs and

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<v Speaker 1>thousand airs. I need to pay their fair share. How

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<v Speaker 1>many goats does one man need? Oh geez, By the way,

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<v Speaker 1>I just got a text from Judy North Carolina. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I figured you bought real furniture or not the Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>furniture that I usually get. Yeah, I got like a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of real pieces of furniture. They're way better. They

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<v Speaker 1>cost a lot more, but they're way better, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>and if your kids want them, they'll be in great

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<v Speaker 1>shape when your kids are you know of age, although

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<v Speaker 1>from what I hear, you know generation Z they sit

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<v Speaker 1>on the floor they eat off the cardboard boxes they

0:12:56.520 --> 0:13:00.840
<v Speaker 1>used for use for the furniture. The key difference between

0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:04.200
<v Speaker 1>real furniture and cheap crappy furniture. Cheap crappy furniture, you

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<v Speaker 1>reach under it to move, you're gonna get jabbed with

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<v Speaker 1>a staple. Real furniture, you are not like China. That

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<v Speaker 1>is the difference. I got a big old scar on

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<v Speaker 1>my forearm. I don't know if you can see it.

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<v Speaker 1>It's faded a little bit, but it looks like a

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<v Speaker 1>suicide attempt because I reached behind a cheap crappy sofa

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<v Speaker 1>in the hotel room to unplug my charger and it

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<v Speaker 1>just sliced my entire four arm open. Cheap crappy furniture China,

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<v Speaker 1>uh text line four one five two nine five kftc