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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault at Sports

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Speaker 2: Doc Matt follow me on Twitter. This podcast being brought

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Speaker 2: to you by bet MGM and the offer for new users,

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Speaker 2: which is a one thousand dollars first bet offer with

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Speaker 2: the promo code Juice at betmgm dot com. All right,

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Speaker 2: this podcast is being taped in the afternoon on Friday.

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Speaker 2: I have an event that I'm going to tonight's, so

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Speaker 2: I don't think I'm going to be able to tape it.

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Speaker 2: So I want to tape this early to kind of

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Speaker 2: get out of the way and I don't have to

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Speaker 2: worry too much about coming home and taping it. So

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Speaker 2: it's early. I do not know what happened tonight for

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Speaker 2: the card on Friday night, so just FYI were going

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Speaker 2: into Saturday. There are no basketball games today. We have

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Speaker 2: one game in the playoff for hockey. We're getting down

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Speaker 2: to the bare bones here, so I don't know what

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Speaker 2: happened last night. Only one game in the playoffs at all.

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Speaker 1: Sunday.

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Speaker 2: It's got the potential over two game sevens on Mother's Day,

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Speaker 2: which is incredible, but Saturday is going to be a

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Speaker 2: little light. Thus the card is going to be a

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Speaker 2: little light. We have a UFC event during the day

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Speaker 2: on ABC. I got a bet in the main event

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Speaker 2: to give you guys here in just one second, I

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Speaker 2: got a baseball play and a hockey play for us

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Speaker 2: on a Saturday. But before we do that, let's have

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Speaker 2: a conversation a little bit about the Betting Pros app.

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Speaker 2: Have you guys downloaded the Betting pros app yet? It

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Speaker 2: is free to do so Android iOS. You can follow experts,

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Speaker 2: You get top rated betters and betters on hot streaks

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Speaker 2: to get incidentification on when they place new bets. You

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Speaker 2: can customize notifications by the sport so you guys can

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Speaker 2: receive the alerts that you want for the sports that

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Speaker 2: only interest you. You can even limit the alerts you

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Speaker 2: get to only historically ROI positive markets of the betters

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Speaker 2: that you follow on the Betting pros app. Take advantage

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Speaker 2: of these features and more by downloading the Betting prosapp

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Speaker 2: by visiting bettingpros dot com slash apps or by searching

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Speaker 2: Betting Pros in the app store again bettingpros dot Com

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Speaker 2: slash apps. To download the betting prosapp today. All Right,

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Speaker 2: these bets are pretty simplistic except for the UFC one. Okay,

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Speaker 2: the first one is Seattle in Dallas. What are we betting?

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Speaker 1: It's six? From a total perspective, I think we're betting under.

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Speaker 2: We've hit every single one of these games so far

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs involving Seattle in Dallas, including someone in

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Speaker 2: the regular season, we're eight for eight.

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Speaker 1: What are we betting over? Six mins? One ten?

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Speaker 2: We're gonna lose one of these times, but not fading this.

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Speaker 2: I'm not stopping the streak. We're betting the streak on this.

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Speaker 2: I don't care where the game is being played. It's

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Speaker 2: in Seattle, so we know that the crackitd are going

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Speaker 2: to be fired up trying to keep themselves alive. I

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Speaker 2: think Dallas wins the game. I lean towards Dallas to

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Speaker 2: win and win the series. But I think the game

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Speaker 2: goes over. It's an elimination game. Another reason why you

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Speaker 2: want to bet the over. Go ahead and jump in

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Speaker 2: on that. Like we saw last night, though with an

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Speaker 2: elimination game, it was a three to two final, Okay,

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Speaker 2: that could happen. There could be a three to two

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Speaker 2: final tonight. That's not crazy, okay, but four to two

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Speaker 2: is far more likely. And we haven't seen one of

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Speaker 2: these games yet Land six or below six every game,

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Speaker 2: eight of them between Dallas and Seattle. Every game has

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Speaker 2: had six goals or more over six. Dallas and Seattle

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Speaker 2: minus one ten one point one units down on that

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Speaker 2: bet number two. It's time to start to fade the

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Speaker 2: bad teams in baseball. The Rangers are at the Oakland A's,

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Speaker 2: who have a grand total of three wins at home

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Speaker 2: this season. I mean it is it's really bad right

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Speaker 2: now for the A's now and then they could have

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Speaker 2: won last night. Okay, they lost the first game of

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Speaker 2: this schedule. They lost it for nothing to the Rangers,

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Speaker 2: so we don't know what happened here on a Friday

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Speaker 2: night heading into a Saturday, these two teams played where

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Speaker 2: we had Perez against Waldechuck. Perez has been pretty good

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Speaker 2: for Texas, so I'm guessing the Rangers probably won this game.

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Speaker 2: They would have taken two of the first two games

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Speaker 2: in this four game series. But here we are on

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Speaker 2: a Saturday. It's a little dangerous to bet baseball this

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Speaker 2: far in advance. I totally understand this, but the A's

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Speaker 2: are three and sixteen. That could be three and seventeen

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Speaker 2: at home. This game's on Fox Sports one, so you

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Speaker 2: get a nationally televised audience on this It's gray for

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Speaker 2: Texas against Sears. For Oakland, who is much better at

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Speaker 2: home than he is on the road. He's an ERA

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Speaker 2: over seven on the road but two and a half

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Speaker 2: at home. Three good starts, including the last one where

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Speaker 2: he didn't give up a run at home in his

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Speaker 2: last home start. But he's on the road, he's horrendous. Now.

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Speaker 2: The Rangers do hit lefties fairly well. Their team total

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Speaker 2: is four and a half. I think that goes over.

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Speaker 2: The A's are right now the second most profitable is

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Speaker 2: it fourth most proper? No, second most profitable team to

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Speaker 2: bet overs. Boston is won at sixty seven point six

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Speaker 2: percent of the time, Oakland is two at sixty four

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Speaker 2: point nine percent of the time, then Atlanta, and then.

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Speaker 1: Texas at number four.

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Speaker 2: So first game was four nothing Friday night probably went over.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what if it doesn't go over. You

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Speaker 2: could bet team total Texas over four and a half

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Speaker 2: or the game over and feel pretty good. But since

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Speaker 2: I'm betting so far in advance, here. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 2: bet money line and fade the bad teams. The Oakland

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Speaker 2: A's are done. They know they're done. They're moving somewhere.

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Speaker 2: It may not be Vegas, but they're moving somewhere. They're

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Speaker 2: just such a bad baseball team. They're eight and thirty

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Speaker 2: one on the year going into last night. They lost

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Speaker 2: five games in a row. I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: six games in a row up against Texas, and these

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Speaker 2: are the games where Texas no is They're twenty three

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Speaker 2: and fourteen going into Friday, so they're probably twenty four

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Speaker 2: and fourteen. The Angels are not closely behind them, but

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Speaker 2: they've got to get some distance between themselves and the

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Speaker 2: Astros before al tuo Ve comes back. You got to

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Speaker 2: beat up these bad teams with the Rangers. I know

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Speaker 2: it's expensive. I rarely ever lay this type of juice

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Speaker 2: at minus one sixty you can get at Cazear sportsbook.

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Speaker 2: I never lay one point six units down. But this

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Speaker 2: is a unique set of circumstances. And because I'm betting

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Speaker 2: on Friday afternoon for a Saturday afternoon game, which is

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Speaker 2: I normally wait until we get to a little bit

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Speaker 2: later on into the day and we see how the

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Speaker 2: numbers go.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna do it. If we lose this, my

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Speaker 1: whole day is blown up.

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Speaker 2: Basically because I'm gonna lose one point six units on

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Speaker 2: one play, and it's gonna be really hard. I could

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Speaker 2: win the other two bets and basically be up point four,

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Speaker 2: you know, barely even be two and one and be

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Speaker 2: barely profitable.

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Speaker 1: So this is a dangerous bet, I'll admit it.

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Speaker 2: But Texas is twenty three and fourteen, probably twenty four

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Speaker 2: and fourteen. Oakland's eight and thirty one, probably nine and

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Speaker 2: thirty or eight and thirty two. I'd prefer it if

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Speaker 2: Oakland won Friday Night, to be quite honest, because then

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Speaker 2: I like this bet even more.

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Speaker 1: If Oakland wins.

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Speaker 2: Friday Night, Texas comes back, I'm gonna lay the one

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Speaker 2: point six units down on Texas just to win, Okay.

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Speaker 2: I like the over team total is minus one thirty

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Speaker 2: five over four and a half runs. If you don't

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Speaker 2: want to bet the juice, you can do that or

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Speaker 2: bet the over for the game. Oakland number two, Texas

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Speaker 2: number four. For the most profitable over teams so far

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Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball. You can just come in here

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Speaker 2: if you want to say, all right, Matt, I'm not

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Speaker 2: laying that juice. It's too expensive. I'm going to lay

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Speaker 2: the eight and a half. It's minus one twenty to

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Speaker 2: the over eight and a half. My gut tells me

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Speaker 2: that probably closes at nine. Sorry, that's that's on Friday.

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Speaker 2: Hold on, let me tell you what Saturday is. It

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Speaker 2: reverted back to Friday's schedule. Hold on, let's see that's Friday,

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Speaker 2: and then to where's that game.

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Speaker 1: There is?

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Speaker 2: It's eight and a half minus one fifteen. It's a

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Speaker 2: little cheaper there, so you can jump in on that

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Speaker 2: if you want. Series has been good at home, like

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Speaker 2: I mentioned, though, so it's a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: fear factory of the game might go under with Sears

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Speaker 2: if he is really good. First five under type of thing.

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Speaker 2: If Gray is good and Seeriars good, just take the

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Speaker 2: win here minus one sixty, Rangers on the money line,

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Speaker 2: minus one sixty, even money on the run line. Go

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Speaker 2: that direct, go that route if you want as well.

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Speaker 2: But as somebody once said in the Discord channel, you

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Speaker 2: only pay the juice if you lose one point six

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Speaker 2: units down. Okay, so we're going Rangers money line one

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Speaker 2: point six units there and we're going with the over

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Speaker 2: six for the stars at one point one units. Now,

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Speaker 2: the UFC event that is happening, it's fight night, but

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Speaker 2: it's not really fight night because it's happening in Charlotte,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina. This is going to be an earlier time

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Speaker 2: than what we are really used to it is. Let

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Speaker 2: me see the exact time of this that this is

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Speaker 2: going to go off for this fight, because I know

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Speaker 2: it's in the afternoon on ABC. It is at eight

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Speaker 2: thirty in the morning Pacific time. It is a eleven

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Speaker 2: thirty in the morning, so the main event probably starts

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Speaker 2: somewhere around like two o'clock or so Eastern time, eleven

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Speaker 2: thirty my time. For this, it's Rose and Strike against Almeda.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk about the main event here. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Almeda is a big, big favorite, minus two to ten

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Speaker 2: at certain books. Okay, Rosen Strike is a guy who

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Speaker 2: has never been finished. But Almida is five twenty one

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Speaker 2: average fight time, so under one and a half rounds

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Speaker 2: is live, but it's minus two ten. He is a

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Speaker 2: heavyweight who submits people, which makes him a young prospect

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Speaker 2: that is extremely rare. He knocked out his last opponent

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Speaker 2: whose name I cannot pronounce. He then submitted his next

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Speaker 2: two opponents and then knocked out Marquez and then submitted

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Speaker 2: his first opponent in the UFC. Five fights, five wins,

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Speaker 2: all of them being finishes. This is his first fight.

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Speaker 2: It is a showcase fight. Okay, this is a chance.

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Speaker 2: The company believes this guy needs a name on his resume,

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Speaker 2: and Rosenstrike is that type of guy.

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Speaker 1: Again, rosen Strike has never been finished. Okay.

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Speaker 2: Last fight against Chris Daccas knocked him out. He lost

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Speaker 2: three of his previous four fights, however, Okay, including losses

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Speaker 2: to Siril Gohn, Curtis Blades, and Alexander of Volkov. He

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Speaker 2: got a decision on the first. On the two against

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Speaker 2: Gone and Blades, and then Volkoff, he knocked him out

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Speaker 2: in the first round. The last time he was stopped

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Speaker 2: was against Francis and Ghanu, who back on the May

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty. It's been a long time since roses

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Speaker 2: Strike has been stopped. Okay, So I'm concerned about betting

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Speaker 2: the under one and a half rounds, even though I

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Speaker 2: do think that's live. To knock out rosen Strike is

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Speaker 2: not going to be easy. However, Almida is just a

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Speaker 2: machine in the heavyweight division, and I think he's going

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Speaker 2: to be diving for takedowns trying to take down Rosen

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Speaker 2: Strike as much as possible. Takedown defense isn't bad, okay.

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Speaker 2: Seventy five percent takedown defense for rosen Strike. That's not

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Speaker 2: anything to be sorry about. It's you know, we're talking

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Speaker 2: about a guy who has zero takedown average per fifteen

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Speaker 2: minutes versus six point seven takedowns on average per fifteen

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Speaker 2: minutes for Almeida.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna try it.

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Speaker 2: He has decent takedown defense, but he tries two or

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Speaker 2: three submission attempts every single time he fights.

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Speaker 1: But he could win by knockout. He could.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he will, but he could just because

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Speaker 2: he gets him on the ground and then ground and

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Speaker 2: pounds and he winds up winning the fight that way.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna split the unit in half.

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Speaker 2: It's plus one ninety eight for Almeida by knockout versus

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Speaker 2: a minus one ten by a Meda by submission. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna still lay the one point one units down,

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Speaker 2: but it's a half a unit down at plus one

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Speaker 2: ninety eight by knockout, and I'm gonna take point six

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Speaker 2: down to win a half a unit coming back, or

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Speaker 2: point five to five down to win a halfy unit

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Speaker 2: coming back.

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Speaker 1: So it's really one point zero.

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Speaker 2: Five to go ahead and lay it by knockout, sorry,

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Speaker 2: by submission rather okay, So if he wins by knockout

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Speaker 2: is what we want, it's sort of a cover on

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Speaker 2: this when it comes to submission. But I think he

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Speaker 2: does end up winning this fight. There's a couple of

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Speaker 2: different ways you can play this. If you don't like

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Speaker 2: the way I'm gonna play, I can already tell people like,

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Speaker 2: why would you do that, Matt, because I think he

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Speaker 2: may knock him out. I just don't want to get burned, Okay,

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Speaker 2: So we can knock him out at least I'll cover

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Speaker 2: the bet and I'll be flat. I haven't been good

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Speaker 2: in UFC betting, by the way, and I sure as

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Speaker 2: heck don't want to lay the juice that is going

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Speaker 2: to cost to go ahead and minus two hundred. Now,

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Speaker 2: let's see what the what the latest numbers are on this.

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Speaker 2: It was two hundred earlier today on this fight. I

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Speaker 2: think in terms of it's no it's now minus four fifty. Okay,

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Speaker 2: to give you an idea. Okay, So knockout we win money.

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Speaker 2: Submission we are are flat. If it's a by decision,

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Speaker 2: we lose, or if roses Strike wins, we lose one

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Speaker 2: point one units. So it's not that big of a deal.

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Speaker 2: I'm two and seven, I think in combat sports. But

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Speaker 2: this is not a lot of stuff to bet on today.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna get on here because it's a free bet.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's a free broadcast on ABC, so a

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Speaker 2: lot of people are gonna be watching this showcase fight.

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Speaker 2: Almeida by knockout, that's a half a unit. Almina by

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Speaker 2: submission zero point five to five minus one ten two

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Speaker 2: plus one ninety eight. I think those are only two

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Speaker 2: ways this fight ends. Let's hopefully see it end by knockout.

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Speaker 2: We'll win some money on this here. Between these two fights,

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Speaker 2: rosen Strike is a dangerous fighter, though he can knock

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Speaker 2: them out. If he clips from early, could be lights out.

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Speaker 2: This fight under one and a half rounds at minus

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Speaker 2: two to ten. You can use that in parlays. This

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Speaker 2: fight probably goes under mis one, but I'll have it

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Speaker 2: in parlays. I'm not going to have it in anything else.

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Speaker 2: I'm not laying minus two to ten on an under

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Speaker 2: with heavyweights, knowing it could go the distance pretty easily.

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Speaker 2: It's a five round fight. It's it's a main event fight,

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Speaker 2: so it's a five round fight to give you an idea.

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Speaker 2: But because we could have a late submission, because we

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Speaker 2: could have a late stopage with a knockout by Almida,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the young kid, the up and coming

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Speaker 2: star to get the victory here, and I don't think

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Speaker 2: it'll be on the cards, all right, That's what we're

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Speaker 2: betting the UFC event, UFC fight here. ABC's got that

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Speaker 2: in the morning on the on the West Coast early

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Speaker 2: start to our day, Rangers money line against the A's

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Speaker 2: on Fox Sports one and minus one sixty and we're

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Speaker 2: going with the over six goals in the hockey game

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Speaker 2: between Seattle and Dallas at minus one ten minus. Matt

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Speaker 2: Parol following me on Twitter at Sports Talc Matt. Each

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Speaker 2: and every morning, it is The Diligence Podcast being brought

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Speaker 2: to you by Bedam GM