WEBVTT - How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:27.964 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making 0:00:28.004 --> 0:00:30.764 better decisions. I'm Maria Khannikova. 0:00:30.444 --> 0:00:32.964 And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we're going 0:00:33.004 --> 0:00:34.964 to be talking about the topic that we always talk about, 0:00:35.044 --> 0:00:37.644 should Democrats Panic? About the polls and the election which 0:00:37.684 --> 0:00:39.964 is now less than two weeks away. And then we'll 0:00:40.004 --> 0:00:43.004 speak with Daryl Morey, who is the president of basketball 0:00:43.044 --> 0:00:45.484 operations for the Philadelphia seventy six ers and one of 0:00:45.524 --> 0:00:50.204 the og stat nerds that made it big in professional sports. 0:00:50.244 --> 0:00:51.564 I think you really like this interview. 0:00:52.164 --> 0:00:55.244 Yeah, I'm looking forward to that conversation. But before we 0:00:55.284 --> 0:01:04.444 get to that, let's talk some politics. 0:01:05.164 --> 0:01:07.564 So we're in week what is it, week number two 0:01:07.644 --> 0:01:13.604 or three of Should Democrats Panic? I think the panic 0:01:13.644 --> 0:01:15.044 meter has gone up a little bit. 0:01:15.244 --> 0:01:20.164 Actually, yeah, I think so too. Obviously, still a toss up, 0:01:20.244 --> 0:01:23.204 but it's not like we're seeing a surge or strong 0:01:23.204 --> 0:01:24.324 results or anything like that. 0:01:24.404 --> 0:01:27.204 But look, there are toss ups, and there are tossups. Maria, 0:01:27.204 --> 0:01:31.444 would you rather have para jacks or Ace king off suit. 0:01:31.924 --> 0:01:34.204 It's close, Yeah, it's close. It's close. 0:01:35.204 --> 0:01:37.644 Right In the pair of jacks, it wins like fifty 0:01:37.684 --> 0:01:39.844 five percent of the time, I think fifty six. 0:01:40.004 --> 0:01:41.924 No, I think I think I'd always go for the pair. 0:01:42.524 --> 0:01:43.084 That's just me. 0:01:43.684 --> 0:01:45.564 Yeah, I want the fifty six. I mean Trump is 0:01:46.604 --> 0:01:50.724 We're taping this on Tuesday, early afternoon. The latest Silver 0:01:50.764 --> 0:01:54.444 Bulletin forecast is Trump with a fifty three percent chance 0:01:54.444 --> 0:01:56.684 of winning the electoral college, Harris forty seven percent. So 0:01:56.724 --> 0:02:01.884 that is very close. But you know, a couple weeks 0:02:01.924 --> 0:02:04.084 ago we have the opposite situation, where was Harris with 0:02:04.124 --> 0:02:07.564 fifty three or fifty five percent. You have seen some 0:02:07.644 --> 0:02:11.404 fairly consistent shifts in national polls where Harris led by 0:02:11.404 --> 0:02:12.804 as much as three or three and a half points. 0:02:12.804 --> 0:02:14.764 It's down to about a point and a half or 0:02:14.764 --> 0:02:18.604 two points now, and an election is close, a one 0:02:18.724 --> 0:02:22.764 one and a half point swing makes a difference. But again, 0:02:23.244 --> 0:02:26.004 the bare case for Harris is that like she had 0:02:26.044 --> 0:02:31.964 these various events that kind of temporarily inflated her numbers, denomination, 0:02:32.124 --> 0:02:35.004 the convention, and the debate, and without that, the gravity 0:02:35.084 --> 0:02:37.004 kind of drags her down to having this very narrow 0:02:37.084 --> 0:02:40.684 national lead, which is maybe not enough in the electoral college. 0:02:41.004 --> 0:02:44.404 Uh Michigan was coonstin Pennsylvania are now basically tied before 0:02:44.444 --> 0:02:49.284 they had shown small Harris leads you can put lead 0:02:49.324 --> 0:02:51.164 in scarepute if you want, but of a point or 0:02:51.164 --> 0:02:59.284 two points, whereas Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Nevada, Nevada 0:03:00.164 --> 0:03:05.404 are also very close, but except for Nevada, probably leaning 0:03:05.444 --> 0:03:07.484 toward Trump by a point or two and so and so. 0:03:07.604 --> 0:03:14.444 It just makes Harris's path incrementally, incrementally a tiny bit 0:03:15.124 --> 0:03:21.644 more difficult than Trump's. Yeah, a couple extra outs. Basically, yeah, 0:03:21.684 --> 0:03:22.204 for sure. 0:03:23.964 --> 0:03:26.964 I just voted, by the way, I just voted in Nevada, 0:03:27.324 --> 0:03:30.724 so we've got we've got my swing vote working for 0:03:30.804 --> 0:03:31.924 Clark County. 0:03:33.964 --> 0:03:38.204 In Nevada. The early voting data based on party registration, Now, 0:03:38.244 --> 0:03:41.044 we don't know what happens with unaffiliated voters. We don't 0:03:41.084 --> 0:03:43.924 know how much votes being cannibalized from election day. We 0:03:43.924 --> 0:03:46.564 don't even know that Republican registries are voting Republican. There 0:03:46.564 --> 0:03:49.564 can be some Nikki Haley vote, I guess, I don't know, 0:03:49.684 --> 0:03:55.524 let's say, But so far, through a few days of this, 0:03:55.604 --> 0:03:59.204 there's actually a slight GOP edge and early voting in Nevada. 0:03:59.244 --> 0:04:02.284 That's one of the few states where where it has 0:04:02.324 --> 0:04:04.884 been more reliable in the past. Look, I'm ninety eight 0:04:04.884 --> 0:04:06.484 percent of what you hear about early voting I would 0:04:06.524 --> 0:04:12.844 chuck out. But have gotten kind of bad for Democrats. 0:04:12.884 --> 0:04:15.884 The polls have gotten worse, and I think, on the 0:04:15.924 --> 0:04:19.284 one hand, this can be exaggerated. If you cross the 0:04:19.324 --> 0:04:21.444 line from fifty two percent to forty eight percent, it 0:04:21.444 --> 0:04:23.484 feels like a big deal. On the other hand, I 0:04:23.684 --> 0:04:24.844 know there are a couple of posts up at the 0:04:24.884 --> 0:04:29.364 newsletter recently about you know, what is Harris's closing message 0:04:29.404 --> 0:04:31.724 in the final two weeks ago, Like what is it? 0:04:31.764 --> 0:04:33.004 What do you think you're closing messages? 0:04:33.324 --> 0:04:36.004 You know, I just read your post about that and okay, biased, 0:04:36.644 --> 0:04:38.644 Yeah you did bias me because I just read it 0:04:38.724 --> 0:04:42.084 right before we started taping this. So for people who 0:04:42.084 --> 0:04:44.844 have not read your newsletter, you drew a really interesting 0:04:44.844 --> 0:04:50.644 contrast between Harris and Obama, which I actually thought was 0:04:50.964 --> 0:04:55.164 really thought provoking, because Obama's messaging was much more a 0:04:55.284 --> 0:04:57.764 call to action, like this is where we stand for, 0:04:57.964 --> 0:05:00.444 this is kind of you know this, this is what 0:05:00.484 --> 0:05:01.804 I'm going to do, and this is what I need 0:05:01.844 --> 0:05:04.284 you to do right now, and Harris's is just like 0:05:04.324 --> 0:05:06.124 fourteen days to go, let's go. 0:05:07.084 --> 0:05:10.284 Okay, do you write enough things to say it's fucking election. 0:05:11.644 --> 0:05:14.284 So so you know, fourteen days to go, Yeah, okay, 0:05:14.604 --> 0:05:15.044 let's go. 0:05:15.284 --> 0:05:21.004 Democrats still have more money in total, Harris isn't raising 0:05:21.044 --> 0:05:23.964 record amounts. Maybe it's close to record. I'm not gonna 0:05:23.964 --> 0:05:26.364 worry about inflation adjustments either way, she's raising a shit 0:05:26.404 --> 0:05:27.004 ton of money. 0:05:27.524 --> 0:05:29.124 I think that's a very good scientific term. 0:05:29.684 --> 0:05:31.524 And they're usually a little bit more efficient with their 0:05:31.524 --> 0:05:35.284 adviys they buy ads earlier and so so money is 0:05:35.324 --> 0:05:37.604 not particularly the problem. 0:05:37.764 --> 0:05:40.924 No, but there are definitely, you know, there are messages 0:05:40.964 --> 0:05:45.164 that I think really matter and resonate with people like abortion, 0:05:45.644 --> 0:05:48.724 you know, democracy, right, Like there are key words that 0:05:49.484 --> 0:05:53.324 we can be using, and we have you know, election 0:05:53.444 --> 0:05:56.924 tampering from Elon Musk, Like there are things like you know, 0:05:56.964 --> 0:05:59.564 you have the you have the Republicans calling out Democrats 0:05:59.604 --> 0:06:02.124 all the time, and I know that as you say, like, 0:06:02.164 --> 0:06:05.124 don't want to antagonize, but like to fourteen days, right, 0:06:05.164 --> 0:06:08.244 if that's your message, that use those damn fourteen days 0:06:08.684 --> 0:06:11.764 to like, you know, to do everything you can to 0:06:11.844 --> 0:06:15.044 get those swing states. And man, I wonder like inside 0:06:15.044 --> 0:06:18.004 that campaign, I'm just looking at some New York Times 0:06:18.084 --> 0:06:21.564 and other headlines this morning being like Shapiro's doing his best. 0:06:21.604 --> 0:06:24.444 I'm like, inside the campaign, are there any people being like, fuck, 0:06:24.844 --> 0:06:27.004 we really should have got with Shapiro. 0:06:27.884 --> 0:06:30.124 Well, they were kind of doubling down on this likability 0:06:30.644 --> 0:06:34.644 vibes factor with Walls, right, and now you see, by 0:06:34.684 --> 0:06:36.204 the way, when all this was happening in the summer, 0:06:36.284 --> 0:06:39.244 then it seems like things were evolving incredibly rapidly, and 0:06:39.324 --> 0:06:42.164 it's hard to see even for me. You know, at 0:06:42.164 --> 0:06:44.084 some point I was like, oh, maybe these vibes are working. 0:06:44.204 --> 0:06:47.164 I mean, if there's a theme of like my newslayer 0:06:47.164 --> 0:06:51.284 this year, it's that Democrats face a real uphill battle 0:06:51.564 --> 0:06:54.804 in the selection, and it's not fake polls or anything else. 0:06:56.004 --> 0:07:00.644 Biden's age, on top of everything else, made it nearly impossible, 0:07:00.844 --> 0:07:03.844 whereas Harris is fifty to fifty ish or Ace King 0:07:03.844 --> 0:07:08.084 against Jack Jack. But it's a difficult race to win 0:07:08.204 --> 0:07:13.124 when you're kind of like running away from the incumbent, 0:07:13.644 --> 0:07:16.084 but can't really say that explicitly. Maybe you just fucking 0:07:16.164 --> 0:07:21.244 throw Joe Biden under the bus, right, I'd like, this 0:07:21.284 --> 0:07:25.364 motherfucker undermine me. This motherfucker was way too old. You 0:07:25.484 --> 0:07:27.524 fucked it. The debates I'm good at debates unlike him, 0:07:27.564 --> 0:07:30.324 So a reduced number of debates. Yeah, gave me the 0:07:30.404 --> 0:07:32.804 fucking gave me the fucking border to undermine me. 0:07:36.404 --> 0:07:40.324 But yeah, I think that our panic meter P panic, 0:07:40.484 --> 0:07:42.004 pea panic is. 0:07:42.084 --> 0:07:45.044 Uh is the silver bulletin for it a fifty three 0:07:45.044 --> 0:07:48.644 percent panic. If I had to make a bullish case 0:07:48.724 --> 0:07:57.404 for Harris right then I'd say the following. I'd say that, uh, 0:07:58.204 --> 0:08:01.724 First of all, vibes don't really mean anything, and if anything, 0:08:01.724 --> 0:08:05.324 they're kind of a contrarian indicator. You saw that a 0:08:05.364 --> 0:08:07.524 little bit in twenty twenty two where the bull showed 0:08:07.524 --> 0:08:09.204 a close race and there was all this talk about 0:08:09.204 --> 0:08:13.524 like a red wave. You know, I'd say she'd probably 0:08:13.524 --> 0:08:15.564 have a better turnout operation and have more money in 0:08:15.604 --> 0:08:21.324 the final two weeks here. You know, I'd say, I mean, 0:08:21.364 --> 0:08:23.404 it's hard to make the case she's a favorite, you 0:08:23.444 --> 0:08:24.844 know what I mean, It's easy to make the case 0:08:24.844 --> 0:08:26.124 that it's still a toss up. I missed what the 0:08:26.164 --> 0:08:30.564 models say basically, right, But maybe yeah, maybe I'd say, like, 0:08:32.044 --> 0:08:34.604 maybe I'd say, yeah, you have some enthusiasm advantage in 0:08:34.644 --> 0:08:36.564 the polls for Republicans, and people are just kind of 0:08:36.564 --> 0:08:40.004 psycking themselves out a little bit. But she's never really 0:08:40.004 --> 0:08:41.804 had like that much of a lead the Electoral College 0:08:41.804 --> 0:08:45.724 in this point, in this whole campaign is the issue 0:08:46.324 --> 0:08:49.404 she's never really clearly pulled ahead. 0:08:49.844 --> 0:08:52.244 I think that's absolutely true. And if we go back 0:08:52.284 --> 0:08:54.964 to our poker Jacks versus Ace King, I think that's 0:08:54.964 --> 0:08:57.004 actually a pretty good metaphor, like she needs to hit 0:08:57.004 --> 0:09:00.164 her ace or her King, and all Trump needs to 0:09:00.204 --> 0:09:02.204 do is avoid her outs, right, like he needs to 0:09:02.244 --> 0:09:07.764 avoid those cards. And so it's that's that's why you'd 0:09:07.844 --> 0:09:09.244 rather have the fifty six percent. 0:09:20.284 --> 0:09:22.404 And now we're back with Darryl Morey, who, as we said, 0:09:22.484 --> 0:09:24.964 is the president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia seventy 0:09:25.004 --> 0:09:27.164 six ers. The NBA season is starting this week, so 0:09:27.284 --> 0:09:28.404 I'm looking forward to this chat. 0:09:28.484 --> 0:09:31.644 Yeah, I'm really excited for this conversation. Nate and I 0:09:31.684 --> 0:09:35.924 have both known Darren for a while, and I said, Darryl. 0:09:37.484 --> 0:09:42.244 He said, let's let's let's good to us. I use 0:09:42.284 --> 0:09:43.364 a replay challenge. 0:09:45.324 --> 0:09:49.284 I thought, I thought you were doing really well, Maureen, 0:09:49.404 --> 0:09:51.484 and then I. 0:09:51.564 --> 0:09:52.724 Sucked it all up. All right. 0:09:53.204 --> 0:09:58.364 Yeah, So first question, I want to make a deal here, Darryl, 0:09:58.404 --> 0:10:01.644 if you give me your NBA Championship pick which teams 0:10:01.684 --> 0:10:04.444 are in the finals and who wins. I'll give you 0:10:04.444 --> 0:10:09.844 my election pick. Okay, okay, all right, Oh. 0:10:08.564 --> 0:10:11.524 My god, and I and I am the lucky person 0:10:11.564 --> 0:10:14.724 who gets to hear this for the first time before 0:10:14.764 --> 0:10:16.244 anyone else. This is amazing. 0:10:17.164 --> 0:10:19.564 No, I think I think that's great. I mean, obviously 0:10:19.644 --> 0:10:24.844 the Philadelphia seventy six ers on the on the east side, 0:10:24.924 --> 0:10:28.924 and I think I'll I'll jump in and just go 0:10:29.004 --> 0:10:29.924 with Oklahoma City. 0:10:29.964 --> 0:10:30.604 I mean, I don't. 0:10:31.044 --> 0:10:34.084 I don't feel like, uh, that's sort of a boring pick. 0:10:34.164 --> 0:10:38.244 But they they have so many assets. They have so 0:10:38.284 --> 0:10:40.724 many assets. Even if they're they're close, they're going to 0:10:40.804 --> 0:10:42.324 put it over the top with then you too. 0:10:42.524 --> 0:10:45.524 So so my election pick is. 0:10:48.124 --> 0:10:50.604 So cheated. Okay. 0:10:50.724 --> 0:10:53.044 I knew we Daryl, We should have known that it 0:10:53.084 --> 0:10:55.404 was too good to be true. He was never actually 0:10:55.444 --> 0:10:58.764 going to deliver on that. He was always going to. 0:11:00.324 --> 0:11:01.244 Yeah exactly. 0:11:01.964 --> 0:11:04.444 I was like, well, we finally get Nate to commit. 0:11:04.484 --> 0:11:08.044 No, I'm excited to be on because you guys are 0:11:08.044 --> 0:11:09.124 all about decision making. 0:11:09.204 --> 0:11:13.244 That's the only thing I do. So I'm on. 0:11:13.404 --> 0:11:16.804 I'm on twenty twenty two years. I think I think 0:11:16.844 --> 0:11:20.284 that's right. Yeah, of just making decisions for teams. 0:11:20.284 --> 0:11:24.444 So for people who don't know you are a true Varian, 0:11:24.604 --> 0:11:26.284 to use a term from the book Gerald, like you 0:11:26.284 --> 0:11:29.404 even play. I mean you're really competitive and you like analytics, 0:11:29.604 --> 0:11:30.484 but you really want to win. 0:11:30.644 --> 0:11:33.684 I just like, yeah, yeah, exactly exactly. 0:11:34.604 --> 0:11:36.604 I think I think that's a motivation that we can 0:11:36.764 --> 0:11:38.924 we can all relate to. 0:11:39.604 --> 0:11:43.884 It's funny because of you, and thank you God, Maria. Sorry, 0:11:44.284 --> 0:11:44.844 no no. 0:11:45.364 --> 0:11:50.804 I was giving a talk in Miami at uh at 0:11:50.804 --> 0:11:52.684 a conference where where there were a lot of people 0:11:52.724 --> 0:11:56.044 who were very into analytics, and we were talking about, 0:11:56.084 --> 0:11:58.404 you know, different strategies and all of this, and I 0:11:58.444 --> 0:12:00.484 was like, you know what, but like the bottom line 0:12:00.524 --> 0:12:02.724 is like I love poker, but like I want to 0:12:02.724 --> 0:12:05.044 fucking win, right exactly. 0:12:05.444 --> 0:12:06.564 You guys that. 0:12:08.084 --> 0:12:11.964 Congratsar on the brace. You're you're you're one up on Nate. 0:12:12.004 --> 0:12:14.164 As far as I know, I'm zero. 0:12:14.364 --> 0:12:18.484 So it's not hard to thank you so much. Darryl Darresl, 0:12:18.484 --> 0:12:21.404 I've played poker against you and two or three times 0:12:21.524 --> 0:12:25.524 or something. Darryl, I'm just gonna tell people has very 0:12:25.524 --> 0:12:30.324 bad chip etiquette. You're supposed to stack your chips and 0:12:30.404 --> 0:12:33.884 piles of twenty twenty. Absolutely, if you don't do that, 0:12:33.884 --> 0:12:36.044 that's actually kind of a disadvance of the players. I 0:12:36.044 --> 0:12:37.164 can't see any chips you have. 0:12:37.884 --> 0:12:40.684 But assets, Daryl, I like you so much. 0:12:40.844 --> 0:12:41.324 Don't know. 0:12:41.844 --> 0:12:44.444 I'm totally like if a player is seen as good 0:12:44.444 --> 0:12:47.164 for the game, there might be less requests. 0:12:48.324 --> 0:12:52.524 No, I sadly I haven't put the time into poker, 0:12:52.844 --> 0:12:54.924 and I get invited to a lot of games and 0:12:54.964 --> 0:12:55.764 I'm not sure why. 0:12:55.804 --> 0:12:57.284 Maybe because I don't win very often. 0:12:57.324 --> 0:13:00.204 So yeah, I will say though, Maria, you're you're a pro, 0:13:00.324 --> 0:13:04.564 so's Nate. I try and at least let my ego. 0:13:04.964 --> 0:13:06.684 Given the fact that I don't win poker a lot, 0:13:07.164 --> 0:13:09.604 I handle it by pointing out them usually playing with 0:13:09.684 --> 0:13:12.684 two or three pros, and it doesn't seem very fair. 0:13:14.364 --> 0:13:17.524 If you guys, Absolutely not fair, And I promise I'll 0:13:17.564 --> 0:13:20.644 be nice to you if you let me play with. 0:13:21.964 --> 0:13:24.444 You definitely want me in your game area, that's for sure. 0:13:24.244 --> 0:13:25.764 You are very aggressive. 0:13:26.164 --> 0:13:26.924 Do you use. 0:13:28.724 --> 0:13:31.964 Game theory in any way in decision making? 0:13:32.644 --> 0:13:33.084 Yeah? 0:13:33.124 --> 0:13:36.884 So, I mean probably the easiest one to talk through 0:13:37.084 --> 0:13:39.964 is like the two for one is a pretty easy 0:13:40.204 --> 0:13:43.564 sort of game theory problem. No one's really gotten to 0:13:43.724 --> 0:13:47.004 the extreme game theory. But it's coming. It's definitely coming. 0:13:48.124 --> 0:13:50.364 So two for one, just for your audience. There's a 0:13:50.404 --> 0:13:53.444 twenty four second shot clock in the NBA. If you 0:13:53.484 --> 0:13:57.004 have the ball, let's say forty seconds or thirty five 0:13:57.044 --> 0:14:00.364 to forty seconds. You can either run your normal offense 0:14:00.644 --> 0:14:03.484 and get a shot in twenty seconds and now there's 0:14:03.484 --> 0:14:05.644 fifteen remaining, so you get one shot and they get 0:14:05.684 --> 0:14:10.604 one shot, and or you can take a shot quickly 0:14:10.684 --> 0:14:12.484 and then the other team only it's went for second, 0:14:12.524 --> 0:14:13.404 so you'll get the ball back. 0:14:13.444 --> 0:14:16.124 Well, it turns out in thousands of thousands of. 0:14:16.164 --> 0:14:17.964 Trials at every level of basketball, this is going to 0:14:18.004 --> 0:14:21.124 shock your audience, which I'm sure is pretty sophisticated. Two 0:14:21.164 --> 0:14:23.884 shots are better than one shot. I know, I know 0:14:23.964 --> 0:14:28.884 that will surprise people. But even even even materially worse, 0:14:29.044 --> 0:14:32.124 two shots are better than one shot. There are some 0:14:33.204 --> 0:14:36.204 exceptions in the fourth quarter and things like that, but 0:14:36.204 --> 0:14:39.524 but in the first three quarters it's pretty straightforward. Well, obviously, 0:14:39.564 --> 0:14:41.924 if the other team says, okay, I'm gonna shoot such 0:14:41.964 --> 0:14:44.644 that I force you into the two for one, the 0:14:44.684 --> 0:14:49.204 other side isn't just this blod you know, undynamic opponent, 0:14:49.884 --> 0:14:52.644 they can then shoot even faster, faster back at you. 0:14:53.364 --> 0:14:55.364 In fact, the Utah Jazz when Jerry Sloan was there, 0:14:55.364 --> 0:14:56.924 would do this more than any team. 0:14:56.764 --> 0:15:00.244 That I can recall. And then so now. 0:15:00.004 --> 0:15:03.884 There's there's a whole set of other strategies that if 0:15:03.884 --> 0:15:06.164 they somehow manipulate the clock better than you, you can 0:15:06.204 --> 0:15:09.084 then regenerate the two for one like fouling them or 0:15:09.564 --> 0:15:11.724 being super aggressive to speed up their offense. 0:15:11.844 --> 0:15:14.044 There's a whole set of things. So that's just one 0:15:14.564 --> 0:15:15.204 off the top. 0:15:15.284 --> 0:15:18.924 Obviously, there's game theory and in in game in terms 0:15:18.964 --> 0:15:21.804 of like how do you react to you know, they 0:15:21.844 --> 0:15:24.444 put five out shooting lineups on the floor, how do 0:15:24.484 --> 0:15:25.044 you guard that? 0:15:25.244 --> 0:15:29.724 Things like that, So, and what about when you're making 0:15:30.364 --> 0:15:33.084 roster decisions, when you when you're thinking about trading, and 0:15:33.124 --> 0:15:36.484 when you actually have to think about yourself as one 0:15:36.644 --> 0:15:40.164 player in a multiplayer game because there are other yous 0:15:40.324 --> 0:15:43.564 out there who are responsible for other teams who are 0:15:43.564 --> 0:15:45.604 going to be making different moves and responding to you. 0:15:46.324 --> 0:15:47.964 So how do you think about it off the court 0:15:48.004 --> 0:15:49.324 in that kind of that metagame? 0:15:49.644 --> 0:15:54.004 That's right, and it's a heavily repeating game because you know, 0:15:54.004 --> 0:15:57.644 it's the same thirty teams. What's really interesting is it's 0:15:57.644 --> 0:16:01.164 a heavily repeating game, but they can replace the key 0:16:01.204 --> 0:16:03.364 decision maker, So it's actually a repeating game at the 0:16:03.404 --> 0:16:06.604 ownership level more than it is at my level, where 0:16:06.644 --> 0:16:09.124 people can get fired. So there have been such sort 0:16:09.164 --> 0:16:12.764 of these famous examples of people, you know, making future 0:16:12.804 --> 0:16:16.444 promises or things like that that they then try to 0:16:17.244 --> 0:16:20.204 duck out of and things like that. So, yeah, we're 0:16:20.204 --> 0:16:23.484 in a repeating game that can work to advantage if 0:16:23.524 --> 0:16:27.884 you treated as such. Again, your audience probably probably pretty 0:16:27.884 --> 0:16:31.924 familiar with like whether non repeating or repeating game type differences. 0:16:32.004 --> 0:16:37.324 So so NBA teams place an extremely high premium on 0:16:37.484 --> 0:16:41.204 superstar talent, especially in the short term. You know, the 0:16:41.204 --> 0:16:42.964 New York Knicks. What they give up for bridges like 0:16:43.004 --> 0:16:47.964 four or five first round picks and he's a good player, 0:16:48.044 --> 0:16:52.284 but probably the third best player on a contending team. 0:16:53.084 --> 0:16:57.364 Are gms too short term focused because of the incentive issue, 0:16:57.484 --> 0:17:01.084 or are like analytics nerds doing the math wrong and saying, actually, 0:17:01.124 --> 0:17:04.764 these draft picks are not that valuable, and superstars are 0:17:04.884 --> 0:17:08.484 very valuable because if you run it through some model, 0:17:08.524 --> 0:17:12.484 it's like, okay, well, the draft picks worth like, you know, 0:17:12.524 --> 0:17:17.204 twenty five million dollars a year in excess returns, and 0:17:17.524 --> 0:17:19.884 Bridges is underpaid by ten million, And I don't know, 0:17:20.444 --> 0:17:21.164 you know what I'm saying. 0:17:22.284 --> 0:17:25.524 Yeah, I think teams are basically wrong at both extremes. 0:17:25.764 --> 0:17:30.724 So they're both not aggressively long term enough. You probably 0:17:30.724 --> 0:17:32.644 like if you actually run the math and you just 0:17:32.684 --> 0:17:36.204 say that you're optimizing you know, p you guys talked 0:17:36.244 --> 0:17:39.444 about p doom on your list the p P Championship 0:17:39.524 --> 0:17:42.884 over three years, if you actually were just optimizing that variable, 0:17:43.324 --> 0:17:45.324 and I can promise you no team actually does do 0:17:45.444 --> 0:17:49.404 that really like twenty something like twenty four of the 0:17:49.444 --> 0:17:52.724 team should be fully rebuilding, just long term every year, 0:17:53.964 --> 0:17:56.244 because if you don't have a top five player, your 0:17:56.244 --> 0:18:02.604 odds of PEA Championship are extremely low. So it's so 0:18:02.684 --> 0:18:06.004 I would say, you know, that's sort of the first thing. 0:18:06.084 --> 0:18:06.604 The second thing. 0:18:06.644 --> 0:18:09.204 I just just wanted to set up the for people 0:18:09.204 --> 0:18:13.484 to quite understand why the superstars are so important and 0:18:13.484 --> 0:18:16.084 why it's important to sort of save your assets for 0:18:16.244 --> 0:18:20.644 those moves. I think the easiest way I describe it 0:18:20.644 --> 0:18:23.884 as take show heyo Tani, you know, the best hitter 0:18:23.924 --> 0:18:28.404 in baseball, now, when show heo Tany hits a home 0:18:28.484 --> 0:18:32.364 run against the Mets, he then has to wait eight 0:18:32.444 --> 0:18:36.884 more times before he gets to hit again. Basketball is 0:18:36.924 --> 0:18:39.164 like show Heyo Tany. He comes on the floor, hits 0:18:39.164 --> 0:18:40.844 a three, and then when he comes on the floor 0:18:40.844 --> 0:18:42.924 again and he goes like, I'm still the best player, 0:18:43.444 --> 0:18:46.924 so I'm shooting again. So just imagine show Heo Tany 0:18:47.004 --> 0:18:49.644 being able to hit every single time with sho heyo 0:18:49.764 --> 0:18:52.044 Tiny's on the base. So that's what you can do 0:18:52.044 --> 0:18:55.964 in basketball. It's actually gotten worse lately, and this will 0:18:55.964 --> 0:18:58.284 be a little bit for the NBA nerds, but because 0:18:58.364 --> 0:19:00.404 a lot of these players who are so great can 0:19:00.444 --> 0:19:03.524 only be guarded by switching, pick and roll. So pick 0:19:03.564 --> 0:19:06.804 and roll is one of the staples of our sport. Basically, 0:19:06.844 --> 0:19:08.924 someone knocks your man off from guarding you. 0:19:09.644 --> 0:19:13.324 Simple. The easiest way to guard that, but one. 0:19:13.124 --> 0:19:15.084 That hadn't been used because you can end up with 0:19:15.124 --> 0:19:18.244 seven feet people on six foot people is you just 0:19:18.284 --> 0:19:21.804 switch the screen and that the person who gets hit 0:19:21.884 --> 0:19:23.924 stays with the guy that they were hit on and 0:19:23.964 --> 0:19:29.164 the other person switches. So the smart NBA players you know, 0:19:29.964 --> 0:19:34.244 see that now and they they can basically screen and 0:19:34.484 --> 0:19:37.244 decide who guards them. So now imagine show heyo, Tony 0:19:37.244 --> 0:19:39.484 not only bats every time he's up, he gets to 0:19:39.484 --> 0:19:42.284 select the pitcher on the other team he gets to 0:19:42.324 --> 0:19:45.404 go against every time down the floor. So and now 0:19:45.444 --> 0:19:48.684 you understand why you know someone like Lebron James can 0:19:48.764 --> 0:19:52.084 at his peak be worth thirty, like close to thirty 0:19:52.164 --> 0:19:55.524 wins on eighty two games, like an insane impact that 0:19:55.804 --> 0:20:00.444 is not even closely replicated in any other sport. So 0:20:00.524 --> 0:20:02.844 back back to original question, Nate, which now I feel 0:20:02.884 --> 0:20:04.684 like I've gone far afield. 0:20:04.764 --> 0:20:06.044 But it's a podcast. 0:20:06.884 --> 0:20:09.844 The entire is that, how it works, how we're it 0:20:09.884 --> 0:20:10.444 is it is. 0:20:10.604 --> 0:20:14.364 Yeah, yeah, that did I answer your original question? 0:20:14.364 --> 0:20:18.244 I feel like I didn't, Well, because you're famous for 0:20:18.324 --> 0:20:21.684 having this kind of in fantasy basically called the stars 0:20:21.724 --> 0:20:26.124 and scrubs yep. Approach, Like not to denigrate the back 0:20:26.164 --> 0:20:28.244 half of the current seventy six ers roster, but like 0:20:28.324 --> 0:20:31.124 they're all they're all a minimum, salaries are just barely 0:20:31.124 --> 0:20:34.844 above minimum. Is that partly because you think that you 0:20:34.884 --> 0:20:39.324 can actually get the average talent instead of replacement level talent? 0:20:39.484 --> 0:20:41.764 Yeah, so I think that becomes a linear This is 0:20:41.884 --> 0:20:43.764 the this is the geek podcast, so I can geek 0:20:43.764 --> 0:20:45.884 out of it. It becomes a linear it becomes a 0:20:45.924 --> 0:20:50.964 linear programming problem. So the most efficient spending in the 0:20:51.044 --> 0:20:55.204 league are on minimums and draft picks who are playing 0:20:55.284 --> 0:20:59.364 above their above their weight, essentially where you can they 0:20:59.364 --> 0:21:02.324 can be worth double or triple while you're paying them. 0:21:02.684 --> 0:21:05.244 The problem is you can only put about eight players 0:21:05.284 --> 0:21:09.964 on the floor, so you can't actually fully capture that efficiency. 0:21:10.044 --> 0:21:13.844 Like if I could put sixty draft picks or minimum 0:21:13.884 --> 0:21:17.564 players that I've carefully selected that are worth more than 0:21:17.604 --> 0:21:19.764 I'm paying them, I could, and I could do that, 0:21:19.844 --> 0:21:22.764 I could win the game. But unfortunately you're only allowed 0:21:22.764 --> 0:21:24.244 to put five on the floor at a time, and 0:21:24.524 --> 0:21:28.444 only really eight even play, usually especially in a playoff series. 0:21:29.004 --> 0:21:32.804 So when you look at the how do you like 0:21:33.004 --> 0:21:37.124 generate the most wins? Even a even a player who 0:21:37.204 --> 0:21:40.724 is just worth his salary that's highly paid, is actually 0:21:40.724 --> 0:21:43.604 more important than these players who are worth double or 0:21:43.604 --> 0:21:46.684 triple worth they're paid at the minimum. Then on top 0:21:46.724 --> 0:21:49.804 of that, because of the mac salary, often the top 0:21:49.804 --> 0:21:52.244 player you have is not only paid the most, but 0:21:52.284 --> 0:21:54.524 also worth quite a bit more than what you're paying them. 0:21:55.124 --> 0:21:58.644 Because of the dynamics I said before, which is so yes, 0:21:58.804 --> 0:22:02.644 I really really love good players and I can't get enough, 0:22:02.924 --> 0:22:06.004